Luminous Landscape Forum
The Art of Photography => The Coffee Corner => Topic started by: Manoli on March 22, 2020, 10:28:21 am
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(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49686713961_bd2ce3f798_z.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/2iGDp16)
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SKYNews (UK) covering the crisis as well, if not better, than anyone.
News, live feed, broadcast via YouTube
https://youtu.be/9Auq9mYxFEE
The shocking centre of the COVID-19 crisis
SKYNews 5 minute documentary
https://youtu.be/_J60fQr0GWo
NYT Corona virus outbreak LIVE feed
https://www.nytimes.com/news-event/coronavirus
NEJM
Covid-19 and the Stiff Upper Lip — The Pandemic Response in the United Kingdom (NEJM) (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2005755?query=featured_home%23article_introduction)
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(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49686820056_26f798e82b_z.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/2iGDWxj)
In most western countries case numbers have been increasing by about 33 per cent a day, a sign that other countries may soon be facing the same challenge as Italy. The Asian city-state of Singapore and the territory of Hong Kong are on a different trajectory in terms of the growth in case numbers. The rate of increase has so far been relatively contained through rapid and strict measures.
UK is in real trouble here. On current trends, UK could hit Italy’s death count in ~9 days. Italy locked down 10 days ago. UK is already behind that schedule.
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FT live blog
Coronavirus tracked: the latest figures as the pandemic spreads (https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest)
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https://nyti.ms/3dnAfoq
Stuff for nightmares
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Virus increasing rapidly in Italy, Spain and UK. Indeed, and also the death curves are steepening.
Interestingly, Taiwan has it under control. They instituted early the tests, and they have also the necessary protective equipment. So far, only 162 cases with 2 deaths. All this without any lockdown. The stores and restaurants are still open and kids still go to school.
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Visuals
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FT live blog
Coronavirus tracked: the latest figures as the pandemic spreads (https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest)
paywalled...
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non paywalled - https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
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There are several places to get data, here's another dashboard fyi, https://ncov2019.live/data (https://ncov2019.live/data).
They're reporting a large increase in US infections today. Might be because of better testing, so more reliable confirmations.
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paywalled...
I realised after I'd posted. Shame on the FT!
Anyone with access to Twitter can follow @jburnmurdoch - he's the stistician and man compiling the charts for the FT.
For an ongoing 'LIVE' blog there's also The Guardian:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/22/coronavirus-news-coronavirus-live-updates-deaths-uk-italy-lockdown-spain-us-new-york-south-america
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It looks like Italy is slowly catching up to the China numbers, and USA is quickly catching up to both of them.
At the present rate, by end of the week USA could have the undesirable distinction for most infection cases.
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Today's numbers show that both Italy and Spain had smaller daily increases today than yesterday. I hope it's an early indication that the "lockdown" is having an effect. Still a long way from good news though.
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It looks like Italy is slowly catching up to the China numbers, and USA is quickly catching up to both of them.
At the present rate, by end of the week USA could have the undesirable distinction for most infection cases.
It will, it has a much larger population than Italy and unfortunately it doesn't look that we are that far behind in regards to spread.
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Today's numbers show that both Italy and Spain had smaller daily increases today than yesterday. I hope it's an early indication that the "lockdown" is having an effect. Still a long way from good news though.
I read a technical paper the other day from a group of Italian and Greek data analysts and they are looking at the end of May for a fade out of new cases. It's very math heavy but if you are interested, here is the link: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.17.20037689v1
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This shouldn't be about (international) politics, but it is good to see this level of cooperation. It also raises an interesting question about dealing with each country's limited hospital resources: what if we could shift doctors and supplies from country to country, as the virus spreads across the globe?
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I read a technical paper the other day from a group of Italian and Greek data analysts and they are looking at the end of May for a fade out of new cases. It's very math heavy but if you are interested, here is the link: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.17.20037689v1
Thnx. I'm not a subscriber so can only see the abstract. End of May is still a long way away.
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This shouldn't be about (international) politics, but it is good to see this level of cooperation. It also raises an interesting question about dealing with each country's limited hospital resources: what if we could shift doctors and supplies from country to country, as the virus spreads across the globe?
Cuba is used to provide their doctors on the loan and at a relatively low cost. However, some of their missions, especially to South American countries can be very dangerous.
Cuba has long been renowned for its medical diplomacy - thousands of its doctors work in healthcare missions around the world, earning the country billions of dollars in cash.
With more than 30,000 Cuban doctors currently active in 67 countries - many in Latin America and Africa, but also European nations including Portugal and Italy - Cuba's authorities draw up strict rules in an attempt to prevent citizens defecting once abroad.
https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-48214513
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This shouldn't be about (international) politics, but it is good to see this level of cooperation. It also raises an interesting question about dealing with each country's limited hospital resources: what if we could shift doctors and supplies from country to country, as the virus spreads across the globe?
In addition , China reported to have flown in over 20,000 kgs of urgent medical supplies and medics bringing their experience to bear. Looking at he evening reports, it looks as though the UK is still woefully behind the curve - surprise at the high % of those unwilling to even follow basic ukgov guidelines.
All eyes on the UK , but Spain is increasingly, and startlingly, vulnerable and high(er) risk.
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NYT and Washington Post raise blood pressure (in the US) , depending which side of the political spectrum one lies. Recommend the Guardian live blog for what, so far, seems balanced, factual, reporting.
For an ongoing 'LIVE' blog there's also The Guardian:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/22/coronavirus-news-coronavirus-live-updates-deaths-uk-italy-lockdown-spain-us-new-york-south-america
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NYT and Washington Post raise blood pressure (in the US) , depending which side of the political spectrum one lies. Recommend the Guardian live blog for what, so far, seems balanced, factual, reporting.
When you are in shock that can be a good thing. Idea for a study: check if the patient is republican or democrat, and if their blood pressure gets low start quoting CNN or Fox and see how long you can postpone the initiation of vasopressors.
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This shouldn't be about (international) politics, but it is good to see this level of cooperation. It also raises an interesting question about dealing with each country's limited hospital resources: what if we could shift doctors and supplies from country to country, as the virus spreads across the globe?
That could work only if you start and have separate units entirely staffed by those physicians. If you want to implant them only in the areas of needs, you risk worse. They have to know the system and work with the others, which is easier said than done.
In US I doubt this would be possible. When the family is unhappy, who are they going to threaten to sue?
Joke aside (more half joke), licensing is a combination of state and federal requirements. They dropped some restrictions now and for a limited time I hear that you can work in any state as long as you have a valid license in US, similar to what the VA system does. I guess if worse come worse they could drop the requirements even more, by having the foreign physicians work only in designated covid units and have some form of oversight from US licensed physicians. Somehow I doubt this will happen.
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From the Economist:
Editor’s note: The Economist is making some of its most important coverage of the covid-19 pandemic freely available to readers of <The Economist Today>, our daily newsletter. To receive it, register here.
Where 'here' is , I don't know, I can't find the link - but worth browsing for it.
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Without a vaccine, it seems clear that only isolation (when a country or community still hasn't been infected by the virus) and social distancing (when it has) are the only valid strategies to stop proliferation of the virus.
When all this story started I wondered what's the point of isolation or very strong social distancing measures if eventually you're going to have to face the virus (vaccine is estimated to be no earlier than 12-16 months). With isolation or severe social distancing you are not exposing your population to the virus so in the end you are just postponing the problem but not its magnitude.
I have done some simulations to illustrate this:
(http://guillermoluijk.com/misc/1_donothing.png)
Quickly a huge % of the population gets infected. The situation is unsustainable in all respects with a R0=2,4 mortal virus.
(http://guillermoluijk.com/misc/2_intensivesocialdistancing.png)
Severe social distancing for 6 consecutive weeks. Infection curve gets flattened and we gain time because the infection spread is delayed by more than 2 months. BUT after that you have to face the virus again (probably imported from other countries) and most of your population has never been exposed to it, so in practical terms you start from scratch like in scenario 1.
(http://guillermoluijk.com/misc/3_spacedsocialdistancing.png)
Same 6 weeks of social distancing as in the previous escenario, but spaced in time (2 weeks social distancing + 2 weeks open). The infection curve gets flattened in three ocasions. There are important infection peaks but much more affordable than in scenario 2. Economy gets closed for the same amount of time, but allowing activity periods. Most importantly a high % of your population has got exposed to the virus so you are much better prepared to face the virus again than in 2.
In my opinion the main conclusion of this exercise is that extremely severe isolation or social distancing could in the end be both economically and from a healthcare perspective, more harmful than allowing some periods of contact of the population with the virus.
Anyone wanting to play with the simulator you can find it in: coronavirus_simulator_STRATEGIES.xlsm (http://guillermoluijk.com/datosimagensonido/coronavirus_simulator_STRATEGIES.xlsm), and a short article explaining a bit here: Flattening the coronavirus curve (https://www.datosimagensonido.com/2020/03/aplanando-la-curva-del-coronavirus.html).
(http://guillermoluijk.com/datosimagensonido/coronavirus_simulator_STRATEGIES.png) (http://guillermoluijk.com/datosimagensonido/coronavirus_simulator_STRATEGIES.xlsm)
Regards
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Without a vaccine, it seems clear that only isolation (when a country or community still hasn't been infected by the virus) and social distancing (when it has) are the only valid strategies to stop proliferation of the virus ... With isolation or severe social distancing you are not exposing your population to the virus so in the end you are just postponing the problem but not its magnitude.
[...]
Same 6 weeks of social distancing as in the previous escenario, but spaced in time (2 weeks social distancing + 2 weeks open). The infection curve gets flattened in three ocasions....Economy gets closed for the same amount of time, but allowing activity periods. Most importantly a high % of your population has got exposed to the virus so you are much better prepared to face the virus again than in 2.
In my opinion the main conclusion of this exercise is that extremely severe isolation or social distancing could in the end be both economically and from a healthcare perspective, more harmful than allowing some periods of contact of the population with the virus.
I think your cocnclusion is on track but you make an assumption that, AFAIK, is NOT a given. China, Japan and South Korea have reported cases of people testing positive for the coronavirus, recovering, being released from care and then later testing positive a second time. Evidence suggests that the virus can persist in the body for several weeks after recovery, so it may be that these patients still tested positive but were not reinfected, However, we still know very little about how the human immune system responds to SARS-CoV-2, and whether those who have been infected develop lasting immunity.
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Among places where the death toll has reached three figures, Britain is an outlier, largely disregarding social distancing. On March 20th mobility in London, Manchester and Birmingham hovered around 25% of normal levels. New York was at 10%, with Rome, Paris and Madrid all at 5% or below.
(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49689879592_6aea62989a_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/2iGVC2W)
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paywalled...
Apparently not any more ...
https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441
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CGTN America
Coronavirus Vaccine - early summer (June) for first human clinical trials ?
INOVIO California (note: she's Scottish)
https://youtu.be/5hn5Vjrq_wY
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-scientist-racing-to-find-a-vaccine-to-the-coronavirus-g5qjkj8q6
Google search 'Kate Broderick' - plenty on her
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Updated:
(https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-eu.s3.amazonaws.com%2Ffca9a1c2-6cec-11ea-89df-41bea055720b?fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=1200)
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I think your cocnclusion is on track but you make an assumption that, AFAIK, is NOT a given. China, Japan and South Korea have reported cases of people testing positive for the coronavirus, recovering, being released from care and then later testing positive a second time. Evidence suggests that the virus can persist in the body for several weeks after recovery, so it may be that these patients still tested positive but were not reinfected, However, we still know very little about how the human immune system responds to SARS-CoV-2, and whether those who have been infected develop lasting immunity.
You are right, still many unknowns.
The long lasting immunity is a question without a clear answer yet.
Regarding being positive again, I think those cases were just tested again too early (or maybe it's wishful thinking on my part). It appears many are still shedding viral RNA, not necessarily being infected or infectious.
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You are right, still many unknowns.
The long lasting immunity is a question without a clear answer yet.
Regarding being positive again, I think those cases were just tested again too early (or maybe it's wishful thinking on my part). It appears many are still shedding viral RNA, not necessarily being infected or infectious.
During Sam Harris's podcast interview (No. 191) Dr. Amesh Adalja mde 2 statements about this. This is now 2-week old information, it may have been superseded by now.
He thought that the very early reports that it was possible to be re-infected by Covid-19 very soon after a first infection appear to be false negatives and have not been borne out over time. His opinion was that if you get it, you're protected for some period.
He also thought that the immunization against it from having been sick once is likely to be long-lasting, more akin to the behaviour of measles than of seasonal flu or colds.
That part of the podcast was an abbreviated conversation and so did not give details about why he thought this. It's on-going of course, it would be interesting to hear his opinions today, assuming we have enough new valid data on the subject.
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I think we are surpassing Italy, as expected (based on total population at least)
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I think we are surpassing Italy, as expected (based on total population at least)
Both USA and UK entering a critical phase. Next 10 days ...
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https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/who-considers-airborne-precautions-for-medical-staff-after-study-shows-coronavirus-can-survive-in-air.html?fbclid=IwAR0LPGCmP1B7GMxZCxS1t_riDcyQLdjWqYQrbYyYKldrLkqi7fr31dKZiII
Aerosolization is a bitch
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Thanks , Armand. Reading thru it seems there’s a new dynamic.
KEY POINTS
1/ The coronavirus can survive on surfaces for up to 17 days, a study published Monday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says.
2/ The study examines two public health responses to COVID-19 outbreaks on the Carnival-owned Diamond Princess ship in Japan and the Grand Princess ship in California.
3/ The virus “was identified on a variety of surfaces in cabins of both symptomatic and asymptomatic infected passengers up to 17 days after cabins were vacated...” the researchers wrote.
Bummer.
17 days ...
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Lasting 17 days is good for the virus, but a real quagmire for the humanity.
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Virus increasing rapidly in Italy, Spain and UK. Indeed, and also the death curves are steepening.
Interestingly, Taiwan has it under control. They instituted early the tests, and they have also the necessary protective equipment. So far, only 162 cases with 2 deaths. All this without any lockdown. The stores and restaurants are still open and kids still go to school.
What do tests with low rates of infection? If there is no lockdown, and stores and restaurants are open, what accounts for no or little transmission and infection?
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I read a technical paper the other day from a group of Italian and Greek data analysts and they are looking at the end of May for a fade out of new cases. It's very math heavy but if you are interested, here is the link: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.17.20037689v1
Forget the math. Can you summarize in a short statement why it's ending in May?
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What do tests with low rates of infection? If there is no lockdown, and stores and restaurants are open, what accounts for no or little transmission and infection?
Testing is the first step in isolating virus carriers. Once you have the results, you can decide what to do with the test subjects.
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Testing is the first step in isolating virus carriers. Once you have the results, you can decide what to do with the test subjects.
Les, they only tested a tiny portion of the whole population. So that does 't address the main issue. If there is no lockdown, and stores and restaurants were open, what accounts for no or little transmission and infection?
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Les, they only tested a tiny portion of the whole population. So that does 't address the main issue. If there is no lockdown, and stores and restaurants were open, what accounts for no or little transmission and infection?
Taking the virus carriers out of circulation is the best way to prevent further spread of infections. It seems to work for them.
If they isolate the carriers, the lockdowns are not required.
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Taking the virus carriers out of circulation is the best way to prevent further spread of infections. It seems to work for them.
If they isolate the carriers, the lockdowns are not required.
Taiwan only tested 21,376 people as of 20 Mar. They have a population of around 24 million. That means they tested about one person out of 1100. How could they catch carriers when testing was only 1/10 of 1%? So how did they stop the spread with nothing shut down? Either they lied or something else is going on that limited the disease there. Is this disease being overestimated in certain areas as to the damage it causes? If so, why? It may give us answer to how to stop this thing. No one seems to be addressing it. It just seems all political rather than scientific.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing-source-data
https://www.google.com/search?q=taiwan+population&rlz=1C1CHBD_enUS746US746&oq=taiwan+population&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l7.3637j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
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It's time to
Test and Arrest.
(https://bloximages.chicago2.vip.townnews.com/emissourian.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/b/10/b10d948e-4c1d-11e0-865e-001cc4c03286/4d7a853323ef9.image.jpg?resize=400%2C267)
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Taiwan only tested 21,376 people as of 20 Mar. They have a population of around 24 million. That means they tested about one person out of 1100. How could they catch carriers when testing was only 1/10 of 1%? So how did they stop the spread with nothing shut down? Either they lied or something else is going on that limited the disease there. Is this disease being overestimated in certain areas as to the damage it causes? If so, why? It may give us answer to how to stop this thing. No one seems to be addressing it. It just seems all political rather than scientific.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing-source-data
https://www.google.com/search?q=taiwan+population&rlz=1C1CHBD_enUS746US746&oq=taiwan+population&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l7.3637j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
They caught the initial carriers and stopped further infections. Also, they learned from their SARS experience.
Despite its closeness to China, physically and in economic terms, Taiwan has had extraordinary success in controlling the coronavirus. Efforts may have been helped by the Sars experience, and the fact that the vice-president is an epidemiologist.
Taiwan was probably the first country to try to stop coronavirus spreading, bringing in checks on travellers from Wuhan at the end of December, after reports of a mystery, pneumonia-like illness.
A command centre for epidemics kicked into action in late January, producing new policies and monitoring virus-tracking and treatment efforts. Wider travel restrictions on people coming from mainland China were introduced despite the insistence of the World Health Organization (WHO) that they were not necessary. Extensive testing and contact-tracing through the public health system prevented the disease spreading.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/experience-of-sars-key-factor-in-response-to-coronavirus
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They had to be awful lucky that none of the carriers infected others before being found. What about their SARS experience did they learn that could be useful to us?
What concern me is that NYS Gov Cuomo said he expected 40-80% of New Yorker to get the disease bud that it's important to lower the curve. He also says like Trump we have to do something because NY can't handle the economic problem by locking down commerce. But what I want to know is how come he made that statement about the 40-80%? Who did he speak too? What does he know that he made that statement? It's really scary.
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Forget the math. Can you summarize in a short statement why it's ending in May?
I can. It isn’t.
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updated 23-March 2100
(https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-eu.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fec8aa6bc-6d58-11ea-89df-41bea055720b?fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=1260)
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(https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-eu.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fe5def62e-6d58-11ea-89df-41bea055720b?fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=1100)xx
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I think the chart would look different if was not based on absolute numbers but rather as a percent of the population. The fact NYC is gaining so many deaths compared to other cities has to be examined in light of it's population of 8 1/2 million. The New YorK Metropolitan Area that has been affected so greatly has a total population of over 20 million in an area about 100 x 130 miles.
Infection rates are more revealing I believe than absolute numbers.
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I think the chart would look different if was not based on absolute numbers but rather as a percent of the population. The fact NYC is gaining so many deaths compared to other cities has to be examined in light of it's population of 8 1/2 million. The New YorK Metropolitan Area that has been affected so greatly has a total population of over 20 million in an area about 100 x 130 miles.
Infection rates are more revealing I believe than absolute numbers.
Exactly correct.
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Forget the math. Can you summarize in a short statement why it's ending in May?
Social distancing allows the number of infections to naturally decay. Italy has seen a decrease in total case for the past three days.
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I think the chart would look different if was not based on absolute numbers but rather as a percent of the population. [...] Infection rates are more revealing I believe than absolute numbers.
The total deaths are a measure of change. The SLOPE of the line is what 'they' are concentrating on.
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The total deaths are a measure of change. The SLOPE of the line is what 'they' are concentrating on.
Indeed. Data from a few minutes ago, compilede here:
https://expresso.pt/coronavirus/2020-03-24-Infografia-covid-19.-Como-compara-Portugal-com-os-paises-mais-afetados--Menos-mal-mas-nao-para-descansar
It's in Portuguese, but the graph is self explanatory. You can hover with the mouse on a curve to see the country. The slope measures the rate of growth. Portugal is sort of middle-ground. Countries in the blue lines seem to be flattening the curve, or decreasing the growth rate, which is good.
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In countries like Portugal and Spain, it is clear the isolation measures have dcereased the growth rate from around 30-40% a day to around 15-20% a day. This potentially means morelives can be saved. Spain took those measures further along the curve, while here in Portugal we took them earlier. Even though the curves show similar trend, I think we will reach a lower peak compared to Spain.
In the article, USA and Turkey are mentioned as very worrisome cases in the short term.
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The total deaths are a measure of change. The SLOPE of the line is what 'they' are concentrating on.
But the chart is comparing areas that have different populations. Naturally there would be more deaths in higher populated areas than less. That makes NYC look worse but may not be necessarily so. It's the infection rate that determines in which area it's spreading faster. I think that;s a better determinant of which area is in greater danger.
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Indeed. Data from a few minutes ago, compilede here:
https://expresso.pt/coronavirus/2020-03-24-Infografia-covid-19.-Como-compara-Portugal-com-os-paises-mais-afetados--Menos-mal-mas-nao-para-descansar
It's in Portuguese, but the graph is self explanatory. You can hover with the mouse on a curve to see the country. The slope measures the rate of growth. Portugal is sort of middle-ground. Countries in the blue lines seem to be flattening the curve, or decreasing the growth rate, which is good.
That's looks like a good chart. But I could barely access it.
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But the chart is comparing areas that have different populations. Naturally there would be more deaths in higher populated areas than less. That makes NYC look worse but may not be necessarily so. It's the infection rate that determines in which area it's spreading faster. I think that;s a better determinant of which area is in greater danger.
Exactly - which is why they're looking at how quickly the death rate is doubling.
Infection (those who test positive, is still an unreiable number) so they're using 'deaths'.
Post #46. What we want is for NY to move to the right , towards California & Washington and for the slope to flatten (less incremental deaths). Look at the fan lines that delineate 'deaths doubling' every two, three days ... every week.
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Exactly - which is why they're looking at how quickly the death rate is doubling.
Infection (those who test positive, is still an unreiable number) so they're using 'deaths'.
Post #46. What we want is for NY to move to the right , towards California & Washington and for the slope to flatten (less incremental deaths). Look at the fan lines that delineate 'deaths doubling' every two, three days ... every week.
It may be doubling, but since it such a small part of the whole population, decisions about what to do must be made with that consideration. If 100,000 New Yorkers eventually wind up with the virus, well that's only around 1%.
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It may be doubling, but since it such a small part of the whole population, decisions about what to do must be made with that consideration. If 100,000 New Yorkers eventually wind up with the virus, well that's only around 1%.
think about the compounding effect.
As of today, the global daily rise in infection is 35,000 and 2,000 in new deaths. By the weekend, there will be globally 25,000 dead and over 500,000 infections.
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think about the compounding effect.
As of today, the global daily rise in infection is 35,000 and 2,000 in new deaths. By the weekend, there will be globally 25,000 dead and over 500,000 infections.
A terrible number. But it's leveling off in a lot of the early countries. No?
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yes, in some countries. But increasing in most. Global death count for today: 2064
By country:
Italy - 743
USA - 120
Spain - 489
France - 240
Iran - 122
UK - 87
Netherlands - 63
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yes, in some countries. But increasing in most. Global death count for today: 2064
By country:
Italy - 743
USA - 120
Spain - 489
France - 240
Iran - 122
UK - 87
Netherlands - 63
As bad as those number look, they're no wheres near the annual flu deaths. I think one of the keys to this thing is whether it will die out naturally in the Spring which is around the corner. Additionally, we should have experts in Taiwan, So Korea and CHina meeting with officials over there to see what they did. I assume we're doing that. But who knows. Morons work for the government.
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Morons work for the government.
At all levels.
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As bad as those number look, they're no wheres near the annual flu deaths. I think one of the keys to this thing is whether it will die out naturally in the Spring which is around the corner. Additionally, we should have experts in Taiwan, So Korea and CHina meeting with officials over there to see what they did. I assume we're doing that. But who knows. Morons work for the government.
You can't keep politics out of anything, can you?
We know what others countries did, it's not really a secret.
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At all levels.
also in the private industry.
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As bad as those number look, they're no wheres near the annual flu deaths.
Alan those are daily numbers. Much worse than flu.
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As bad as those number look, they're no wheres near the annual flu deaths.
If you multiply these numbers by 365, the deaths stats be worse than flu.
If you allow for linear growth (or gentle bell curve) and six more months, it will look much worse.
In case of rapid exponential growth (the current trend) and a few more months, you don't even want to know.
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If you multiply these numbers by 365, the deaths stats be worse than flu.
If you allow for linear growth (or gentle bell curve) and six more months, it will look much worse.
In case of rapid exponential growth (the current trend) and a few more months, you don't even want to know.
We're going to find out very soon. But what have Taiwan and China and So. Korea done that we can't do? If they really have a handle on it, and there won't be a spike there, we should be copying their methods. Of course, can we really trust the Chinese? They lied about the virus that they had it. Had they been up front, the rest of the world could have got a jump on it. But all that's water over the dam. Can we get real data as to their and other procedures where stopping this thing is really working. I'm only 50 miles from NYC which is getting most of the numbers.
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That's looks like a good chart. But I could barely access it.
Alan,
It is an interactive plot. I have saved it as a JPEG and added a few labels. On the X-axis, are the number of days after reaching 100 cases, this is an indicator used by scientists. On the Y-axis (log) is the number of cases.
Portugal is the black line, I have labeled USA and Turkey, they have the highest growth rate, almost doubling the cases every 2 days.
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We're going to find out very soon. But what have Taiwan and China and So. Korea done that we can't do? If they really have a handle on it, and there won't be a spike there, we should be copying their methods. Of course, can we really trust the Chinese? They lied about the virus that they had it. Had they been up front, the rest of the world could have got a jump on it. But all that's water over the dam. Can we get real data as to their and other procedures where stopping this thing is really working. I'm only 50 miles from NYC which is getting most of the numbers.
What they did is no secret: strict quarantine, and massive testing, VERY EARLY ON. That is the secret, to precvent contagion from the beginning. The virus R0 (infection ratio) is normally between 3 and 4. 1 person can infect 3 or 4; each one of those 3 or 4 will then infect another 3 or 4 and so on. Quarantining after the virus is freely spreading in the community has a much lower effect in arresting the exponential growth rate.
In Spain and Italy, they were too late. In Portugal, after about 10 days of staying at home, growth rate has decreased to 15%, which is good. The current R0 is about 1.5. The problm here is the older population staying in care homes - a lot of those homes have been found out to be infected, especially the people taking care of the old folks... it will be a disaster.
I don't want to mention politics again, but clearly some of the key decision makers were in denial until very recently. The efficient measures need to be taken on time, now it will be too late to have a big impact. Again countries have learned a lot from their experience with SARS epidemic in 2002 - 2003, so they acted immediately.
Yes, China were late in admiting the problem and warning the World. But governments everywhere were slow in adopting efficeint measures on time.
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709 confirmed cases in South Africa as of today. Growing rapidly with the shutdown due to begin tomorrow. I’m all set. What’s very weird to me is not one death. I personally know someone who tested positive for it and is now already fine. Japan has 1200 infections and 43 deaths(more or less). Why has no one died of it yet in South Africa I wonder? I feel like we are in the edge of a cliff.
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Alan,
It is an interactive plot. I have saved it as a JPEG and added a few labels. On the X-axis, are the number of days after reaching 100 cases, this is an indicator used by scientists. On the Y-axis (log) is the number of cases.
Portugal is the black line, I have labeled USA and Turkey, they have the highest growth rate, almost doubling the cases every 2 days.
Thanks for that. It does appear the US is going up more sharply. However, it's hard to tell just looking at the chart which distorts the criteria depending how it's structured. I wonder if a chart that show rates against the population would be better? Also, I heard that 60% of the new cases in America are coming just from NYC. So what's going on in the rest of the country. On the positive side, it also appears that most lines seems to be flattening. A few seem really flat but who knows how accurate they are? Some government may be lying about the numbers. They're really upped the amount of testing in the US. I think we'll have better data pretty soon.
I see Japan put off the Olympics for one year.
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Thanks for that. It does appear the US is going up more sharply. However, it's hard to tell just looking at the chart which distorts the criteria depending how it's structured. I wonder if a chart that show rates against the population would be better? Also, I heard that 60% of the new cases in America are coming just from NYC. So what's going on in the rest of the country. On the positive side, it also appears that most lines seems to be flattening. A few seem really flat but who knows how accurate they are? Some government may be lying about the numbers. They're really upped the amount of testing in the US. I think we'll have better data pretty soon.
Yes, the US Covid-19 infection rate is very steep. It's almost like the reproduction rate of hippos in Columbia. In the 90's Pablo Escobar brought 4 hippos to Columbia, and now there are almost 100 of them roaming the country. It is estimated that if left unchecked, within 20 years there could be thousands of hippos in Colombia.
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Just as an FYI:
- The virus stays infectious on cardboard for ~24 hours
- Amazon warehouse workers have been testing positive
- Many delivery drivers have been going to work sick because they fear they will lose their jobs if they call in
It's been suggested that you leave delivered packages on the porch for 24 hours before bringing them in and opening.
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Just as an FYI:
- The virus stays infectious on cardboard for ~24 hours
- Amazon warehouse workers have been testing positive
- Many delivery drivers have been going to work sick because they fear they will lose their jobs if they call in
It's been suggested that you leave delivered packages on the porch for 24 hours before bringing them in and opening.
That's probably reasonable. If you have to open it immediately wipe the box with some bleach and wash hands after you open the box and before you take the contents out. It might be a good idea to wipe the inside boxes too, even if theoretically they should have been untouched for 48h plus. I need a little more insight on how and where the Coronavirus survived for 17 days in the cruise ship because that's a very long time. Also surviving in just detectable quantities doesn't necessarily mean it will easily infect.
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Just as an FYI:
- The virus stays infectious on cardboard for ~24 hours
- Amazon warehouse workers have been testing positive
- Many delivery drivers have been going to work sick because they fear they will lose their jobs if they call in
It's been suggested that you leave delivered packages on the porch for 24 hours before bringing them in and opening.
I put gloves on then handle the package. I spray it with alcohol mist. Then open it and spray the inside stuff. After all the inside stuff was handled by someone somewhere too. How healthy are they? Then I dumpr the gloves right into the garbage can. I leave the carton in the garage for the weekly pickup of cartons.
Frankly, the odds are better in Las Vegas.
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What do you guys do when you shop for food in the supervirusmarket, Costco, or where ever?
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Our local chain updated it's store policies with dedicated hours for elederly and first responders: https://www.meijer.com/covid19response.html
So I'm using it.
When I get home I wash the fruits that have been outside of a bag and give a wipe with a soap saturated towel to the boxes of food, etc. Wash after and that's it. It try to give a thorough rinse to the salads and similar.
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Thanks for that. It does appear the US is going up more sharply. However, it's hard to tell just looking at the chart which distorts the criteria depending how it's structured. I wonder if a chart that show rates against the population would be better? Also, I heard that 60% of the new cases in America are coming just from NYC. So what's going on in the rest of the country. On the positive side, it also appears that most lines seems to be flattening. A few seem really flat but who knows how accurate they are? Some government may be lying about the numbers. They're really upped the amount of testing in the US. I think we'll have better data pretty soon.
I see Japan put off the Olympics for one year.
The steep growth period seems to last for 3 - 4 weeks, with the rate depending on measures in place. These epidemic curves are very well documented in literature, they follow a "sigmoid" shape or "S" shape. following those 3 - 4 weeks, typically we can expect another 3 - 4 weeks of a plateu period. Then finally it starts to come down.
Here in Portugal we expect the peak to be reached mid- April, and the thing to dimmer end-May.
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What do you guys do when you shop for food in the supervirusmarket, Costco, or where ever?
The stores here have senior hours early in the morning. That's the only time I go. The local Whole Foods has almost everything in stock. Not so with Safeway and Giant. Whole Foods also checks ID at the door and won't let anyone under 60 in the store. I keep my distance and use the wipes the store has. I wash my hands when I get home.
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What do you guys do when you shop for food in the supervirusmarket, Costco, or where ever?
We have a policy of 4 people per 100m2 in the supermarkets. Once I leave the house, Inever bring myhands to my face, and use sleeves to open door handles. When I return home, I leave the shoes outside, take off my "street" clothes, basically I have a "dirty" area in the hall of my house.
I thouroughly wash my hands before putting on my "home" clothes, and leave the groceries sitting for a few hours.
It's just common sense really.
Take care.
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NO! longer ...
NEJM ( New England Journal of Medicine) reported that Covid-19 can linger in the air for hours and on some materials for days; far longer than previously thought. Cardboard and plastic are closer to 48 & 72 hours.
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/03/19/how-long-can-the-novel-coronavirus-survive-on-surfaces-and-in-the-air
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973
(https://www.economist.com/img/b/800/516/85/sites/default/files/20200321_WOC833.png)
Just as an FYI:
- The virus stays infectious on cardboard for ~24 hours
- Amazon warehouse workers have been testing positive
- Many delivery drivers have been going to work sick because they fear they will lose their jobs if they call in
It's been suggested that you leave delivered packages on the porch for 24 hours before bringing them in and opening.
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NO!
NEJM ( New England Journal of Medivine) reported that Covid-19 can linger in the air for hours and on some materials for days; far longer than previously thought. Cardboard and plastic are closer to 24 & 72 hours.
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973
I read the paper when it first came out as a pre-print maybe two weeks ago. While the data are interesting, it's not clear how transferable they are to what one sees in the real world. I don't know what type of aersols are generated when someone coughs or sneezes. Sneezing would seem to me to propel aerosols further as there is more air expelled and at a faster rate. It is also important to know what the viral load is in sputum as that seems to me far more dangerous as the nose really doesn't deliver aerosols.
With respect to contaminated surfaces, it depends on the viral load on the surface. You are not going to get infected by touching a surface that has virus on it unless you transfer the virus to your mouth, nose or eyes which would be principal modes of entry to the body and eventually the lungs. Also remember that these were lab experiments where they were deliberately swabbing surfaces to see if virus could be recovered and cultured. they are measuring infection in tissue culture which may or may not be relevant to the human exposure route. Yhe amount of virus recovered was less with time in all the surface experiments. Here is what they say about cardboard, "On cardboard, no viable SARS-CoV-2 was measured after 24 hours" Most cardboard is porous and it may actually inhibit transfer of virus to hands.
Prudent practice remains - wash your hands!!!!!
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The stores here have senior hours early in the morning. That's the only time I go. The local Whole Foods has almost everything in stock. Not so with Safeway and Giant. Whole Foods also checks ID at the door and won't let anyone under 60 in the store. I keep my distance and use the wipes the store has. I wash my hands when I get home.
That what I do. Then I go back and spray the door knobs with alcohol.
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We have a policy of 4 people per 100m2 in the supermarkets. Once I leave the house, Inever bring myhands to my face, and use sleeves to open door handles. When I return home, I leave the shoes outside, take off my "street" clothes, basically I have a "dirty" area in the hall of my house.
I thouroughly wash my hands before putting on my "home" clothes, and leave the groceries sitting for a few hours.
It's just common sense really.
Take care.
How do you deal with fresh produce, meats, etc?
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While the data are interesting, it's not clear how transferable they are to what one sees in the real world. .... You are not going to get infected by touching a surface that has virus on it unless you transfer the virus to your mouth, nose or eyes which would be principal modes of entry to the body and eventually the lungs. Also remember that these were lab experiments ...
The latest data or should I say 'thoughts' , specifically relating to the cruise ships, indicated that the virus was active and persistant far longer than previously thought and contagion was, to a great extent , due to persistence on surfaces, bannisters , table tops , seat covers , arms etc etc
It may not be evidence, yet, but in today's circumstances, wiser to heed words of warning. Too much is still unknown and if empirical evidence points one way, I'd follow it until it's proven to be untrue.
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The latest data or should I say 'thoughts' , specifically relating to the cruise ships, indicated that the virus was active and persistant far longer than previously thought and contagion was, to a great extent , due to persistence on surfaces, bannisters , table tops , seat covers , arms etc etc
It may not be evidence, yet, but in today's circumstances, wiser to heed words of warning. Too much is still unknown and if empirical evidence points one way, I'd follow it until it's proven to be untrue.
In the Netherlands this 'news' was not taken as valid.
Maybe the virus was still there, but they think it was not complete and therefore dangerous anymore.
IOW they thought the had done an DNA test that recognised the virus, without checking if it was still active and dangerous.
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How to clean your food: https://youtu.be/sjDuwc9KBps
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Is there any proof this works?
(https://www.koin.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2020/03/coronavirus-new-seasons-social-distancing-dots-03232020.jpg?w=638)
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Is there any proof this works?
(https://www.koin.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2020/03/coronavirus-new-seasons-social-distancing-dots-03232020.jpg?w=638)
That design could help some marriages I know. :)
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Is there any proof this works?
"works" in what way? Does keeping people about 2m apart reduce the likelihood of transmission? Probably. Does painting orange circles on the pavement help to keep people 2m apart? The photo seems to suggest that it might.
Jeremy
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How do you deal with fresh produce, meats, etc?
According to our health authorities, fruit and vegetables are ok. Stiil, I wash them as I normally used to do anyway, with water and soap, before storing them. I basically wash everything, but I am used to do it anyway.
I also leave shopping bags in a "dirty area" for 1 day.
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Interesting chart re: Covid-19 age distribution in Canada - showing most infections in 30-70 years range:
(https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/phac-aspc/images/services/diseases-maladies/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/health-professionals/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases/fig-4-eng.jpg)
more charts and analysis:
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/health-professionals/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html
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Data collected by a specialist in AI and statistics in Portugal, Francisco Restivo, see attached plot from 2 days ago. Number of cases per 100,000 people.
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According to our health authorities, fruit and vegetables are ok. Stiil, I wash them as I normally used to do anyway, with water and soap, before storing them. I basically wash everything, but I am used to do it anyway.
I also leave shopping bags in a "dirty area" for 1 day.
Thanks. I just washed bananas and oranges with soap and water and rinsed them off. All the glass , plastic, cardboard and other grocery items were cleaned off with Lysol Disinfectant sprayed into a couple of paper towels and wiped off with it. I have to start wearing Nitrile rubber gloves more often. I'm getting homemaker hands. :)
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Interesting chart re: Covid-19 age distribution in Canada - showing most infections in 30-70 years range:
(https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/phac-aspc/images/services/diseases-maladies/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/health-professionals/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases/fig-4-eng.jpg)
more charts and analysis:
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/health-professionals/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html
I'm 75. Maybe I should move to Canada and be safe.
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Johns Hopkins site now lists more than 1,000 dead in US.
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I'm 75. Maybe I should move to Canada and be safe.
Not really. Mortality rate increases quite a lot above 70 years old... as of today there are ~3,500cases in Portugal, 60 dead. 11 dead below 70 years old.
Regarding the age distribution, from what I have seen thus far, it is very similar to other countries, almost a normal distribution.
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I'm 75. Maybe I should move to Canada and be safe.
I gather, one reason for the small percentage of the over 70 year old people in that chart is that they don't go out as much as the younger group. Especially in the winter.
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Not quite a normal flu...
https://www.facebook.com/mc.somsen.5/videos/2479878538929240/
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I gather, one reason for the small percentage of the over 70 year old people in that chart is that they don't go out as much as the younger group. Especially in the winter.
In Canada, there's roughly 7 times the population of 30-70 years old as there are over 70.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710000501
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According to our health authorities, fruit and vegetables are ok. Stiil, I wash them as I normally used to do anyway, with water and soap, before storing them. I basically wash everything, but I am used to do it anyway.
I also leave shopping bags in a "dirty area" for 1 day.
Thanks. I just washed bananas and oranges with soap and water and rinsed them off. All the glass , plastic, cardboard and other grocery items were cleaned off with Lysol Disinfectant sprayed into a couple of paper towels and wiped off with it. I have to start wearing Nitrile rubber gloves more often. I'm getting homemaker hands. :)
See the YouTube link I posted on the previous How to clean your food: https://youtu.be/sjDuwc9KBps
page, the guy is pretty thorough.
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Not quite a normal flu...
https://www.facebook.com/mc.somsen.5/videos/2479878538929240/
My point is that Covid will die out like flu does every year. Regard deaths, that chart of yours only shows 72 days. Flu killed 500,000 worldwide last year, 50,000 in America alone with 34,000,000 infected. Covid-19, as bad as it is, doesn;t seem to be on the same destructive path.
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See the YouTube link I posted on the previous page, the guy is pretty thorough.
Yes, he is. Thanks for that video, Armand. I watched the whole thing and followed his suggestions.
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My point is that Covid will die out like flu does every year. Regard deaths, that chart of yours only shows 72 days. Flu killed 500,000 worldwide last year, 50,000 in America alone with 34,000,000 infected. Covid-19, as bad as it is, doesn;t seem to be on the same destructive path.
Actually, if the current trend continues, Covid-10 is on a much more destructive path. In the other related thread, I posted some projections with millions of deaths before the summer.
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A question: say you were in self-isolation for 14 days. It that period, the symptoms were gradually disappearing, and on day 15-16, you can say you are symptom-free. How long after that you could still be contagious? An extra week? Two? What does science say?
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My point is that Covid will die out like flu does every year.
You've added predictive virology to your fields of expertise, have you? On what do you base "my point"?
Jeremy
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A question: say you were in self-isolation for 14 days. It that period, the symptoms were gradually disappearing, and on day 15-16, you can say you are symptom-free. How long after that you could still be contagious?
I've attached a screen capture of the current guidance (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/if-you-are-sick/care-for-someone.html) from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
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You've added predictive virology to your fields of expertise, have you? On what do you base "my point"?
Jeremy
The charts for one. They appear to be flattening out, turning a corner. Plus some experts have said deaths seem to be declining in areas that were hit earlier. So based on the curves and time frames in the charts, NYC should level off in a couple of weeks then start going down. So based on those things, my estimate is the whole thing will fade out in 4 or 5 weeks or so.
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The charts for one. They appear to be flattening out, turning a corner. Plus some experts have said deaths seem to be declining in areas that were hit earlier. So based on the curves and time frames in the charts, NYC should level off in a couple of weeks then start going down. So based on those things, my estimate is the whole thing will fade out in 4 or 5 weeks or so.
Bill Gates believes that America needs six to 10 weeks of “extreme shutdown” to get a handle on the coronavirus outbreak (or COVID-19), indirectly criticizing comments from President Trump.
“It’s very irresponsible for somebody to suggest we can have the best of both worlds,” Gates emphasized in an interview with TED on Tuesday. “What we need is the extreme shutdown, so that in six to 10 weeks, if things go well, then you can start opening back up.”
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bill-gates-on-coronavirus-161803530.html
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Bill Gates believes that America needs six to 10 weeks of “extreme shutdown” to get a handle on the coronavirus outbreak (or COVID-19), indirectly criticizing comments from President Trump.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bill-gates-on-coronavirus-161803530.html
What does he care? He's worth $80 billion dollars and can afford to take a couple of weeks off. In any case, his guess is as good as mine.
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In any case, Gates' guess is not much different than mine. I said 4-5 weeks, he said 6-10 weeks. Maybe Les you're right and it will be 2021.
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I've attached a screen capture of the current guidance (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/if-you-are-sick/care-for-someone.html) from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Thanks, Chris, much appreciated. Based on that, it seems I can get out. But I won't. Not yet.
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In any case, Gates' guess is not much different than mine. I said 4-5 weeks, he said 6-10 weeks. Maybe Les you're right and it will be 2021.
Hopefully, the worst will be over by fall this year.
As to the estimated difference between 5 and 10 weeks, if the actual difference turns out as just one one month and the doubling period remains at 8 days, that extra time could inflict 10 times more casualties.
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Hopefully, the worst will be over by fall this year.
As to the estimated difference between 5 and 10 weeks, if the actual difference turns out as just one one month and the doubling period remains at 8 days, that extra time could inflict 10 times more casualties.
You're assuming the rate keeps doubling at the same rate. In NY, Gov Cuomo announced the two day doubling had change to something like 2-3 days than changed again to every 4-5 days. It could reach a point where there are more deaths added to the total but the rate stays the same day to day. Let's think positive. It's just as easy to do that as to think negative. Maybe we've been watching too many walking dead and end of world movies recently.
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Let's think positive. It's just as easy to do that as to think negative.
Easy, yes.
But the consequences of being wrong in either case vastly different.
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You're assuming the rate keeps doubling at the same rate. In NY, Gov Cuomo announced the two day doubling had change to something like 2-3 days than changed again to every 4-5 days. It could reach a point where there are more deaths added to the total but the rate stays the same day to day. Let's think positive. It's just as easy to do that as to think negative. Maybe we've been watching too many walking dead and end of world movies recently.
Alan, I was being positive, actually quite optimistic.
Instead of the current doubling every 3 or every 5 days, I assumed a more conservative estimate of 8-10 days.
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Thanks, Chris, much appreciated. Based on that, it seems I can get out. But I won't. Not yet.
I've been reading a lot of clinical papers for the email newsletter I'm sending out each day to fellow pharma industry retirees. It seems to be quite variable. Some patients saw the virus disappear within a day or two other a little longer. The CDC guidance is good but make sure you carry some disposable Kleenex with you and if you have to cough or sneeze use the tissue under the assumption you don't want to transmit anything (you probably wouldn't but always good to be safe) and of course keep up the hand washing and sanitizing routine. Right now I have not seen any papers about reinfection of those who no longer had virus in their system.
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There were comments on the presence of SARS-CoV-2 on environmental surfaces based on the New England Journal of Medicine article. I tried to allay folks concerns but this article in Jeff Bezos's Washington Post does it better: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/26/dont-panic-about-shopping-getting-delivery-or-accepting-packages/ In short, don't panic, go about your business and wash your hands.
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Thanks, Alan G.
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Easy, yes.
But the consequences of being wrong in either case vastly different.
Well this thing goes on another year, than the economies will be destroyed and we'll all be starving to death. Pick your poison.
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Alan, I was being positive, actually quite optimistic.
Instead of the current doubling every 3 or every 5 days, I assumed a more conservative estimate of 8-10 days.
You're assuming this will go on to the fall. I don't think that's going to happen. If it does, than read my last post.
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I've been reading a lot of clinical papers for the email newsletter I'm sending out each day to fellow pharma industry retirees. It seems to be quite variable. Some patients saw the virus disappear within a day or two other a little longer. The CDC guidance is good but make sure you carry some disposable Kleenex with you and if you have to cough or sneeze use the tissue under the assumption you don't want to transmit anything (you probably wouldn't but always good to be safe) and of course keep up the hand washing and sanitizing routine. Right now I have not seen any papers about reinfection of those who no longer had virus in their system.
You could cough into your hand like Biden did. 2:50 on he video Check out Tappers reaction.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1242535855362899976
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There were comments on the presence of SARS-CoV-2 on environmental surfaces based on the New England Journal of Medicine article. I tried to allay folks concerns but this article in Jeff Bezos's Washington Post does it better: https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/26/dont-panic-about-shopping-getting-delivery-or-accepting-packages/ In short, don't panic, go about your business and wash your hands.
Bezos wants money for that article.
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Are things getting testy at home?
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You're assuming this will go on to the fall. I don't think that's going to happen. If it does, than read my last post.
Firstly, this thing won't stop suddenly, there will be a gradual slowdown, and maybe even a second wave before the situation returns to normal.
Secondly, if the virus gets worse and many workers stay at home either because they will be sick or laid off, there is not much point in forcing them to go back to work.
BTW, on March 20, we had 271,598 total infections and 11,299 deaths. That day, in one of my posts, I made a prediction of 600,000 total infections and 25,000 deaths for end of March. Looking at today's numbers, they doubled in 7 days to 529,605 infections and 24,000 deaths, so we'll reach the predicted numbers tomorrow, 4 days early. Now, it looks like by end of March we might be at 750,000 infections and 40,000 dead.
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A question: say you were in self-isolation for 14 days. It that period, the symptoms were gradually disappearing, and on day 15-16, you can say you are symptom-free. How long after that you could still be contagious? An extra week? Two? What does science say?
You could still shed virus for 2 to 3 weeks, but perhaps at that stage the virus is less infectious. A lot of uncertaity still remains.
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Well this thing goes on another year, than the economies will be destroyed and we'll all be starving to death. Pick your poison.
Scientists are already preparing for a second wave, in the Autumn, where a vaccine will not be available yet. Of course, the current lockdown will reduce the number of people getting infected now, but will increase the number of people getting infected in the future, most likely. There is no win-win situation.
The second wave of the 1918 flu, which hit Portugal in the Autumn of 1919, killed a lot more people. Also worldwide I think.
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You could still shed virus for 2 to 3 weeks, but perhaps at that stage the virus is less infectious. A lot of uncertaity still remains.
I'd suggest that before throwing around loose comments and advice as facts, one should provide a link to the source - preferably an authoratative one. Prefacing replies with 'perhaps' only helps to spread FUD.
Current guidelines are, AFAIK, 7 days contagion / 14 days to exhibit signs of infection (incubation period).
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/disposition-in-home-patients.html
Persons with COVID-19 who have symptoms and were directed to care for themselves at home may discontinue home isolation under the following conditions:
1/ At least 3 days (72 hours) have passed since recovery defined as resolution of fever without the use of fever-reducing medications and improvement in respiratory symptoms (e.g., cough, shortness of breath); and,
2/ At least 7 days have passed since symptoms first appeared.
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It mau be the Daily Mail but the video is from George Washington University.
360degree VR and 3D images of COVID-19 infected lungs.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8155797/Virtual-reality-video-reveals-coronavirus-damages-lungs.html
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Johns Hopkins University - summary to avoid contagion.
*1* The virus is not a living organism, but a protein molecule (DNA) covered by a protective layer of lipid (fat), which, when absorbed by the cells of the ocular, nasal or buccal mucosa, changes their genetic code. (mutation) and convert them into aggressor and multiplier cells.
*2* Since the virus is not a living organism but a protein molecule, it is not killed, but decays on its own. The disintegration time depends on the temperature, humidity and type of material where it lies.
*3* The virus is very fragile; the only thing that protects it is a thin outer layer of fat. That is why any soap or detergent is the best remedy, because the foam CUTS the FAT (that is why you have to rub so much: for 20 seconds or more, to make a lot of foam). By dissolving the fat layer, the protein molecule disperses and breaks down on its own.
*4* HEAT melts fat; this is why it is so good to use water above 25 degrees Celsius for washing hands, clothes and everything. In addition, hot water makes more foam and that makes it even more useful.
*5* Alcohol or any mixture with alcohol over 65% DISSOLVES ANY FAT, especially the external lipid layer of the virus.
*6* Any mix with 1 part bleach and 5 parts water directly dissolves the protein, breaks it down from the inside.
*7* Oxygenated water helps long after soap, alcohol and chlorine, because peroxide dissolves the virus protein, but you have to use it pure and it hurts your skin.
*8* NO BACTERIACIDE SERVES. The virus is not a living organism like bacteria; they cannot kill what is not alive with anthobiotics, but quickly disintegrate its structure with everything said.
*9* NEVER shake used or unused clothing, sheets or cloth. While it is glued to a porous surface, it is very inert and disintegrates only between 3 hours (fabric and porous), 4 hours (copper, because it is naturally antiseptic; and wood, be
cause it removes all the moisture and does not let it peel off and disintegrates). ), 24 hours (cardboard), 42 hours (metal) and 72 hours (plastic). But if you shake it or use a feather duster, the virus molecules float in the air for up to 3 hours, and can lodge in your nose.
*10* The virus molecules remain very stable in external cold, or artificial as air conditioners in houses and cars. They also need moisture to stay stable, and especially darkness. Therefore, dehumidified, dry, warm and bright environments will degrade it faster.
*11* UV LIGHT on any object that may contain it breaks down the virus protein. For example, to disinfect and reuse a mask is perfect. Be careful, it also breaks down collagen (which is protein) in the skin, eventually causing wrinkles and skin cancer.
*12* The virus CANNOT go through healthy skin.
*13* Vinegar is NOT useful because it does not break down the protective layer of fat.
*14* NO SPIRITS, NOR VODKA, serve. The strongest vodka is 40% alcohol, and you need 65%.
*15* LISTERINE IF IT SERVES! It is 65% alcohol.
*16* The more confined the space, the more concentration of the virus there can be. The more open or naturally ventilated, the less.
*17* This is super said, but you have to wash your hands before and after touching mucosa, food, locks, knobs, switches, remote control, cell phone, watches, computers, desks, TV, etc. And when using the bathroom.
*18* You have to HUMIDIFY HANDS DRY from so much washing them, because the molecules can hide in the micro cracks. The thicker the moisturizer, the better.
*19* Also keep your NAILS SHORT so that the virus does not hide there.
Johns Hopkins Archive
https://hub.jhu.edu/tags/coronavirus/articles/
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Scientists are already preparing for a second wave, in the Autumn, where a vaccine will not be available yet. Of course, the current lockdown will reduce the number of people getting infected now, but will increase the number of people getting infected in the future, most likely. There is no win-win situation.
The second wave of the 1918 flu, which hit Portugal in the Autumn of 1919, killed a lot more people. Also worldwide I think.
What a cheery comment. :)
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Johns Hopkins University - summary to avoid contagion.
Johns Hopkins Archive
https://hub.jhu.edu/tags/coronavirus/articles/
Excellent summary!
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An experimental vaccine is starting trials in the UK shortly. It's based on the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and uses a proven scalable technology. 500 people will be enrolled.
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An experimental vaccine is starting trials in the UK shortly. It's based on the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and uses a proven scalable technology. 500 people will be enrolled.
Do they think this virus will come back next year, come back in a different strain like the Asian flu does every year, or is this a one-off?
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I'd suggest that before throwing around loose comments and advice as facts, one should provide a link to the source - preferably an authoratative one. Prefacing replies with 'perhaps' only helps to spread FUD.
Current guidelines are, AFAIK, 7 days contagion / 14 days to exhibit signs of infection (incubation period).
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/disposition-in-home-patients.html
I apologize for not remembering the source, but I am sure I read it as a quote froma scientific paper that was mentioned during the daily press conference we have in Portgual from our health authorities.
What you mention above is nothing new and does not contradict my statement. Also, no need to insult.
What has been found out is that after recovering from the disease and leaving the hospital, patients were found to still being able to infect others because they still had the virus in their system. Doctors mention "shedding" the virus. This could be the reason why some patients still test positive after recovering and being declared cured. They still carry the virus in their system, and could be doing so for 2 - 3 weeks.
Found it after all:
"After a person recovers from the virus, how long are they still contagious?
That's a very important question. We're not sure; one individual in China was shown to have persistent virus shedding for over a month. But typically, we're looking at a three-week period from onset of symptoms."
https://www.caltech.edu/about/news/tip-iceberg-virologist-david-ho-bs-74-speaks-about-covid-19?fbclid=IwAR0MA1o_JLnGCK6c0Z1SJtikFUF1o0W-17N-ZNFOkXlqIz52K5fItzVbf-I
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UK’s Boris Johnson tested positive. It seems like a lot of famous people have the virus. Maybe mild cases. Could that mean it's really more distributed and we just don't know because only the rich and famous are getting tested without symptoms?
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UK’s Boris Johnson tested positive. It seems like a lot of famous people have the virus. Maybe mild cases. Could that mean it's really more distributed and we just don't know because only the rich and famous are getting tested without symptoms?
In Portugal, today we have more ~700 cases. This means that the growth rate is keeping at 20% per day, down from 40% before the quarantine. This is not bad news...
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In Portugal, today we have more ~700 cases. This means that the growth rate is keeping at 20% per day, down from 40% before the quarantine. This is not bad news...
That is good news. Let's pray that follows around the world.
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Do they think this virus will come back next year, come back in a different strain like the Asian flu does every year, or is this a one-off?
It's staying and it keeps changing a little with each transfer. So we need to build immunity (antibodies) and/or introduce them with a vaccine to help the immune system prepare. Once the leap from animal to human carriers is made, traveling humans are a successful vehicle for spreading.
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In Portugal, today we have more ~700 cases. This means that the growth rate is keeping at 20% per day, down from 40% before the quarantine. This is not bad news...
Sounds like the R0 is also approaching 1.0 like it seems to be in the Netherlands. There might still be a flare-up due to last weekend where a lot of irresponsible folks were organizing parties in defiance of the instructions, which caused the government to tighten up the restrictions and impose €400 fines for private offenders, and € 4000 for companies. Now to get the R0 below 1.0 will be a tricky balancing act.
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Iceland's response. (https://www.nbcnews.com/now/video/how-iceland-tested-the-most-people-for-covid-19-per-capita-in-the-world-81211973892)
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https://www.statista.com/chart/21176/covid-19-infection-density-in-countries-most-total-cases/?fbclid=IwAR2GzWzOPufIqiMaASqbg_U8ENocxodei03ZIrJPbHUes08LnTdygWDwROw
COVID-19 Cases per Million Inhabitants: A Comparison
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https://www.statista.com/chart/21176/covid-19-infection-density-in-countries-most-total-cases/?fbclid=IwAR2GzWzOPufIqiMaASqbg_U8ENocxodei03ZIrJPbHUes08LnTdygWDwROw
COVID-19 Cases per Million Inhabitants: A Comparison
Interesting, but this is of course confirmed cases and is dependent on individual nations testing levels.
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You have to have been tested to be a confirmed case. If you don't test, you can have a really low cases per thousand score.
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https://www.statista.com/chart/21176/covid-19-infection-density-in-countries-most-total-cases/?fbclid=IwAR2GzWzOPufIqiMaASqbg_U8ENocxodei03ZIrJPbHUes08LnTdygWDwROw
COVID-19 Cases per Million Inhabitants: A Comparison
The key word in the chart is "Confirmed" cases. Most people (including myself) have not yet been confirmed because tests are only used for those needing hospitalization, and healthcare workers. Also, most people will develop a mild case of infection (although they may be very contageouus for less fortunate others).
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Also, no need to insult.
Paolo,
I had no intention of insulting, just pointed out that in this very difficult period there are many trains of thought and it's best to stick as best we can to 'facts'. Slobodan is naturalised American, and with all respect to Portugal, I pointed him to the advice of the CDC.
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Sounds like the R0 is also approaching 1.0 like it seems to be in the Netherlands. There might still be a flare-up due to last weekend where a lot of irresponsible folks were organizing parties in defiance of the instructions, which caused the government to tighten up the restrictions and impose €400 fines for private offenders, and € 4000 for companies. Now to get the R0 below 1.0 will be a tricky balancing act.
Indeed. Last weekend in Portugal there were some gatherings of people that confused "hygienic walks around the block" with going out and clogging promenades. I live 5min away from a nice beach, it's sunny outisde, but...
I saw a news piece the other day was how the big crisis in Bergamo was traced to a football match played in Milan between Atalanta (team from Bergamo) and Valencia - there were big celebrations in Bergamo due to the victory. Same thing is possible when, in plain crisis already, UEFA decided not to cancel Liverpool - Atletic Madrid, with 60,000 people in the stadium. Criminal decision, IMO.
Even today I read an article about the crisis in Spain, and how on March 8 the prime minister and the government participated in public events that gathered large crowds. March 8 there were 1,000 cases in Spain.
Similar thing happened in France, where early this month they were entertained with local elections and large public gatherings.
The danger of epidemics curve is that during the first couple of weeks, even though the number of cases may double every 2 or 3 days, the numbers are still low, so people still think itis not serious and do not take the necessary measures ON TIME.
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The key word in the chart is "Confirmed" cases. Most people (including myself) have not yet been confirmed because tests are only used for those needing hospitalization, and healthcare workers. Also, most people will develop a mild case of infection (although they may be very contageouus for less fortunate others).
Once a validated serological (blood) test comes out, the level of infection in the general population can be established. A US company has developed a finger prick test but it has not received approval in the US yet. I believe it is being exported right now for use in countries that might not have other testing capacity. Several gene tests that run on auto analyzers have received US approval. Abbott Laboratories say they will be ramping up to 1 million test kits per week for their analyzer.
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The key word in the chart is "Confirmed" cases....
Yes, of course. But the value of the chart is different: it has just been announced that the US is now leading the world in the absolute number of "confirmed" cases. Therefore, the chart puts the comparison of confirmed cased on an equal footing (i.e., the same statistical base).
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Yes, of course. But the value of the chart is different: it has just been announced that the US is now leading the world in the absolute number of "confirmed" cases. Therefore, the chart puts the comparison of confirmed cased on an equal footing (i.e., the same statistical base).
1. What does this mean?
2. Wouldn't a sampling of the general population have to be random to have much validity? Testing people who look like they need a test or who come in to have a test because they think they're infected will skew the results and give false data.
3.Do we have enough test kits to do random sampling at this time rather than using them in a more targeted way?
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1. What does this mean?
2. Wouldn't a sampling of the general population have to be random to have much validity? Testing people who look like they need a test or who come in to have a test because they think they're infected will skew the results and give false data.
3.Do we have enough test kits to do random sampling at this time rather than using them in a more targeted way?
We have plenty of test kits to do this, and probably the testing tech, but people are worried about other things, I guess. You can get within 3% plus or minus valid numbers, with 95% confidence, testing any large number of people with only 1000 random samples. This could be done by contracting (fairly cheaply) with a polling company doing what's called random digit dialing, which would take a sample of 1000 people and asking if they would go to a designated test center to get swabbed. You might even pay them to do this -- paying them $100 would only cost $100,000, a drop in the bucket compared to the amounts of money we're throwing around. Or, you could pay them $1,000, still a drop in the bucket. Once you had the tests, you'd know within a range of 3%, plus or minus, with 95% confidence, what the infection rate is in any large population -- the US, New York, Wyoming, whatever large population you'd want to designate.
Nobody is doing this, as far as I know.
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We have plenty of test kits to do this, and probably the testing tech, but people are worried about other things, I guess. You can get within 3% plus or minus valid numbers, with 95% confidence, testing any large number of people with only 1000 random samples. This could be done by contracting (fairly cheaply) with a polling company doing what's called random digit dialing, which would take a sample of 1000 people and asking if they would go to a designated test center to get swabbed. You might even pay them to do this -- paying them $100 would only cost $100,000, a drop in the bucket compared to the amounts of money we're throwing around. Or, you could pay them $1,000, still a drop in the bucket. Once you had the tests, you'd know within a range of 3%, plus or minus, with 95% confidence, what the infection rate is in any large population -- the US, New York, Wyoming, whatever large population you'd want to designate.
Nobody is doing this, as far as I know.
Here's an article posted today explaining how they're gearing up to do wider testing.
"Scientists are starting to roll out new blood tests for the coronavirus, a key development that, unlike the current diagnostic tests, will help pinpoint people who are immune and reveal the full scope of the pandemic."
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/27/serological-tests-reveal-immune-coronavirus/
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Here's an article posted today explaining how they're gearing up to do wider testing.
"Scientists are starting to roll out new blood tests for the coronavirus, a key development that, unlike the current diagnostic tests, will help pinpoint people who are immune and reveal the full scope of the pandemic."
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/27/serological-tests-reveal-immune-coronavirus/
I am tracking this. There is no approved blood test for the US right now.
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I am tracking this. There is no approved blood test for the US right now.
What about tests of the general public that tests if they have or had the disease?
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Talking about the number of cases is only valuable if you look at where you are on the cycle. Italy for example the number of new cases is doubling every 6 days. In the US the number of new cases is doubling every three days. The US is now regarded as the Epicentre of the virus and for many there is no health care. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus
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The US is now regarded as the Epicentre of the virus and for many there is no health care.
It's true that there are still many uninsured individuals in the United Sates. However a federal statute, the Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act (1986), requires every hospital with an emergency department that participates in Medicare, the government insurance program for old people―effectively, this means almost every hospital in the country―to screen and provide stabilizing medical treatment for any individual who requests an emergency medical examination or treatment, regardless of the individual's ability to pay. If the hospital doesn't have the ability to stabilize the patient, it must arrange for a transfer to a hospital that does.
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It's true that there are still many uninsured individuals in the United Sates. However a federal statute, the Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act (1986), requires every hospital with an emergency department that participates in Medicare, the government insurance program for old people―effectively, this means almost every hospital in the country―to screen and provide stabilizing medical treatment for any individual who requests an emergency medical examination or treatment, regardless of the individual's ability to pay. If the hospital doesn't have the ability to stabilize the patient, it must arrange for a transfer to a hospital that does.
Yes, if they are sick they will get admitted and treated. In ICU the vast majority of times I have no idea what insurance the patients have and I don't care.
Where it will make a difference is in the post hospital care. Most people that are that sick in the ICU don't go directly home, and the care after is quite important, particularly if they have a lot to recover.
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Imperial College study:
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Global-Impact-26-03-2020.pdf
"We estimate that in the absence of interventions, COVID-19 would have resulted in 7.0 billion
infections and 40 million deaths globally this year. Mitigation strategiesfocussing on shielding
the elderly (60% reduction in social contacts) and slowing but not interrupting transmission
(40% reduction in social contacts for wider population) could reduce this burden by half,
saving 20 million lives, but we predict that even in this scenario, health systems in all countries
will be quickly overwhelmed."
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Googling this morning, I saw quite a few stories about C19 anti-body pin prick tests. An example, https://www.precisionvaccinations.com/sd-biosensor-standard-q-covid-19-igmigg-rapid-test-administered-point-care (https://www.precisionvaccinations.com/sd-biosensor-standard-q-covid-19-igmigg-rapid-test-administered-point-care).
The articles I happen to come across seem to be press release type statements. Does anyone know the false positive and especially the false negative rates of these tests? I realize it is too early to have field data but some data should have come out of approval testing.
What is the minimum level of reliability that we require?
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Googling this morning, I saw quite a few stories about C19 anti-body pin prick tests. An example, https://www.precisionvaccinations.com/sd-biosensor-standard-q-covid-19-igmigg-rapid-test-administered-point-care (https://www.precisionvaccinations.com/sd-biosensor-standard-q-covid-19-igmigg-rapid-test-administered-point-care).
The articles I happen to come across seem to be press release type statements. Does anyone know the false positive and especially the false negative rates of these tests? I realize it is too early to have field data but some data should have come out of approval testing.
What is the minimum level of reliability that we require?
On its own, such a test has limited value. At best it can tell if someone is, or has been, infected with Covid-19. Additional tests are required to increase its usefulness, and it's the lack of molecular tests that creates a problem. Also, without being used in a good methodical data-gathering effort, there is limited usefulness for the larger population (e.g. in determining when it becomes acceptable to risk going back to work).
First test results do suggest that people may be immune to reinfection, but it's still too earlier to be very sure. Currently there are also tests being done to establish the differences in (re-)contamination risk between people with only mild or more servere sympthoms. That includes specific effects from children compared to adults.
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just read some reports from Slovakia how they handled Covid-19 situation.
Slovakia is a rather small country with 5.5 million people, 300 infections, but no deaths so far.
They instituted early a number of measures to prevent and monitor the infections, some low-tech and some using the latest technology for tracking the affected people.
The newly-appointed crisis staff and Igor Matovič's cabinet came up with a set of measures to add to the already existing ones that have been valid in Slovakia since March 13.
"The epidemiologic situation is still better than in some western-European states," said the head of the hygienic authority, Jan Mikas.
The government is about to purchase 200,000 PCR tests.
Wearing a protective face mask will be obligatory outside one's home, including in the streets. When queueing, people are required to stand at least 2 metres from each other, both indoor and outdoor. As of March 30, measuring temperature will be obligatory at the entrance to shops, hospitals, factories,... (using a digital contactless thermometer measuring temperature on the forehead)
All shops will be closed on Sundays, for disinfection and to allow the staff to rest. The ban on organizing mass events that expired on March 24 has been prolonged until further notice.
Using data from mobile phones:
-The government will pass a law on a short-tracked procedure to allow state authorities to use localisation data from mobile phone operators. GDPR permits the use of this data during crisis times, but "we need a law for the telecom operators to be sure we are able to use this data". The government will talk to the telecom operators about the possibility of sending targeted messages to people, e.g. pensioners older than 65 years, to remind them about the appeals and measures that apply to them.
https://spectator.sme.sk/c/22366501/masks-will-be-obligatory-new-measures-mainly-aimed-at-the-elderly.html?ref=njctse
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On its own, such a test has limited value. At best it can tell if someone is, or has been, infected with Covid-19. Additional tests are required to increase its usefulness, and it's the lack of molecular tests that creates a problem. Also, without being used in a good methodical data-gathering effort, there is limited usefulness for the larger population (e.g. in determining when it becomes acceptable to risk going back to work).
First test results do suggest that people may be immune to reinfection, but it's still too earlier to be very sure. Currently there are also tests being done to establish the differences in (re-)contamination risk between people with only mild or more servere sympthoms. That includes specific effects from children compared to adults.
The blood tests rely on the presence of antibodies which do not present immediately upon infection. The gene tests from nasal and throat swabs are still the gold standard there. There has been a lot of progress automating those tests and several companies that manufacture gene auto-analyzers have tests now. Abbott Labs in the US hopes to be sending out 1 million tests kits a week that run on their machines and there are others who are also ramping up production. These machines are mainly in hospital settings where point of care diagnoses is most important.
I've seen a couple of pin prick blood tests now but don't know what the ramp up for production is. These kinds of tests can be administered in a doctor's office and conceivably at home much the same way diabetics test their blood sugar levels with a pin prick (though that has largely been superseded by some new technologies). Blood tests can be more widely deployed than the gene tests and will be useful in getting good background numbers on the total number infected.
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I've seen a couple of pin prick blood tests now but don't know what the ramp up for production is. These kinds of tests can be administered in a doctor's office and conceivably at home much the same way diabetics test their blood sugar levels with a pin prick (though that has largely been superseded by some new technologies). Blood tests can be more widely deployed than the gene tests and will be useful in getting good background numbers on the total number infected.
Understood. There is an obvious statistical value, but it might also be of some relief to many people to find out that they did have it and seemed to be able to fight it off. I do understand the risk of inducing false hope until we know more.
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-27/abbott-launches-5-minute-covid-19-test-for-use-almost-anywhere?fbclid=IwAR0-IvkWdl13BT6dVaGsERWXPRIMmVjYkGCFcRwlt6-Sj7FfwC9EGR_ww_w
The April 1st start date gives me a little pause.
Plus in our system (and I don't think it's the only one) they don't want outpatient offices to test but to send for testing to one of the main hospital locations.
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from the FDA
https://www.fda.gov/media/136522/download
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from the FDA
https://www.fda.gov/media/136522/download
It would be helpful to summarize the link and your reason for posting it.
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https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-27/abbott-launches-5-minute-covid-19-test-for-use-almost-anywhere?fbclid=IwAR0-IvkWdl13BT6dVaGsERWXPRIMmVjYkGCFcRwlt6-Sj7FfwC9EGR_ww_w
The April 1st start date gives me a little pause.
Plus in our system (and I don't think it's the only one) they don't want outpatient offices to test but to send for testing to one of the main hospital locations.
There are 18K machines throughout the US. Abbott plans to get 40K tests out each day. Do the math and you get 2.5 tests per machine and you need to get those to the site where the machines are. there will be a huge logistics issue here.
EDIT: The issue of PPE (personal protection equipment will be an issue for MD and urgent care offices).
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There are 18K machines throughout the US. Abbott plans to get 40K tests out each day. Do the math and you get 2.5 tests per machine and you need to get those to the site where the machines are. there will be a huge logistics issue here.
Why would you need 18K machines to test? Send the tests to the most affected areas? Then set up regional testing machines at let's say hospitals. For example, NYC has 11 major hospitals under NYC government control. So that could be testing centers. 44 machines or four per hospital. Ditto for New Orleans, Chicago, and other hot spots. Then leave let's say 40% of the tests for less affected places but for machine at a major hospital. You got to think out of the box.
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...
EDIT: The issue of PPE (personal protection equipment will be an issue for MD and urgent care offices).
Let's say you're the president. What do you suggest?
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Why would you need 18K machines to test? Send the tests to the most affected areas? Then set up regional testing machines at let's say hospitals. For example, NYC has 11 major hospitals under NYC government control. So that could be testing centers. 44 machines or four per hospital. Ditto for New Orleans, Chicago, and other hot spots. Then leave let's say 40% of the tests for less affected places but for machine at a major hospital. You got to think out of the box.
Hospitals don't use this machine they use the big Abbott analyzer for which the company is cranking out many more tests a day. I think they are shipping out over a million a week. This machine is used primarily in MD and urgent care offices.
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Let's say you're the president. What do you suggest?
Make more PPE, everyone needs the stuff. Also remember if someone who is positive comes to an MD or urgent care office and sneezes or coughs you need to the have the tools to decontaminate things. Maybe they will dedicate a special room for taking the swab samples. this is not as easy a problem to solve.
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Hospitals don't use this machine they use the big Abbott analyzer for which the company is cranking out many more tests a day. I think they are shipping out over a million a week. This machine is used primarily in MD and urgent care offices.
So what do you suggest?
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Make more PPE, everyone needs the stuff. Also remember if someone who is positive comes to an MD or urgent care office and sneezes or coughs you need to the have the tools to decontaminate things. Maybe they will dedicate a special room for taking the swab samples. this is not as easy a problem to solve.
So what do you suggest?
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Remember, you're president. No one wants to hear this is not an easy problem to solve. Solve it.
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So what do you suggest?
Asked an answered at #170 above; more PPE for health care workers so they can treat and test without getting infected.
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Asked an answered at #170 above; more PPE for health care workers so they can treat and test without getting infected.
That's what the president is doing. He's got automobile manufacturers to help out. All of them are helping willingly except GM which wants to gouge us with high prices. So he dropped the mandatory manufacturing law in their laps and told them to produce or face the consequences. What more would you do? Remember you're in charge.
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There are 18K machines throughout the US. Abbott plans to get 40K tests out each day. Do the math and you get 2.5 tests per machine and you need to get those to the site where the machines are. there will be a huge logistics issue here.
EDIT: The issue of PPE (personal protection equipment will be an issue for MD and urgent care offices).
Initially I didn't understand what you were saying but I think I get it now.
Most of the testing will be done in bigger centers because of the PPE requirements. I see a trend towards sending the tests to more centralized locations and have a fast turnover than to try to test it on-site.
I guess this option will be more valid for smaller remote locations where they have no other choice.
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That's what the president is doing. He's got automobile manufacturers to help out. All of them are helping willingly except GM which wants to gouge us with high prices. So he dropped the mandatory manufacturing law in their laps and told them to produce or face the consequences. What more would you do? Remember you're in charge.
This thread was set up to distribute facts and useful information. Recently you manage to turn every topic into a "defend Trump at all costs" post even when he wasn't being attacked. Knock it off, it serves no purpose and risks derailing this thread. Nothing Alan G wrote above was political.
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Initially I didn't understand what you were saying but I think I get it now.
Most of the testing will be done in bigger centers because of the PPE requirements. I see a trend towards sending the tests to more centralized locations and have a fast turnover than to try to test it on-site.
I guess this option will be more valid for smaller remote locations where they have no other choice.
Yes, these are the small machines that only run some dedicated tests such as for strep throat and some other easy things. The big guys such as LabCorp and Quest can do large volume testing but it has to be sent to regional centers and the turn around time is 2-3 days.
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This thread was set up to distribute facts and useful information. Recently you manage to turn every topic into a "defend Trump at all costs" post even when he wasn't being attacked. Knock it off, it serves no purpose and risks derailing this thread. Nothing Alan G wrote above was political.
Seconded.
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A friend sent this report about UV radiation use in decontamination, https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200327-can-you-kill-coronavirus-with-uv-light (https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200327-can-you-kill-coronavirus-with-uv-light).
UV radiation is used in commercial applications but requires specialized equipment and training. The takeaway is that there doesn't seem to be any obvious way to use it in a consumer setting. You can't disinfect all your groceries at the exit door by walking through a UV room, not safely. The info about UVC (as opposed to UVA and UVB) was new to me.
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(Cross-posting from another Corona thread)
Today's stats from Serbia, FWIW:
From top to bottom, left to right:
Total number, dead, recovered, active cases, tested. Serbia's population is about 7-8 million.
The second image is a makeshift hospital for milder cases in a fairground facility.
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UV radiation is used in commercial applications but requires specialized equipment and training. The takeaway is that there doesn't seem to be any obvious way to use it in a consumer setting.
The only practical consumer use for it that I've seen is in cellphone "sanitizers." These might be useful for people who need to use their phones it settings where they are in contact with people who are shedding COVID-19 or other viruses―for example, doctors or other medical workers.
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The only practical consumer use for it that I've seen is in cellphone "sanitizers." These might be useful for people who need to use their phones it settings where they are in contact with people who are shedding COVID-19 or other viruses―for example, doctors or other medical workers.
I got one because our phones are one the most contaminated objects to start with.
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(Cross-posting from another Corona thread)
Today's stats from Serbia, FWIW:
From top to bottom, left to right:
Total number, dead, recovered, active cases, tested. Serbia's population is about 7-8 million.
The second image is a makeshift hospital for milder cases in a fairground facility.
I heard the Detroit auto show was canceled and they will use the facility for something similar.
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Interesting chart: http://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
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Italian stats:
The data set is from 6,000 deaths. Anecdotally, overweight men are the majority of patients and the data confirm it.
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Italian stats:
The data set is from 6,000 deaths. Anecdotally, overweight men are the majority of patients and the data confirm it.
There is a lot of interesting epidemiology data coming out and I'm sure we will continue to see interesting things. I want to see if there is a positive correlation between blood type and infectivity. Early information shows those with Type A are more prone to infection. Also people on certain blood pressure meds may have resistance based on some AI analyses of possible drugs that interfere with viral binding.
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Even though in some countries - like mine, Portugal - the recommendation from WHO - test, test, test - is not possibel (lack of supplies due to non-preparedness), the amount of data worldwide is enormous. Only in Portugal, in March, 40,000 tests were done.
The amount of data at the end of this crisis will no doubt be analysed by AI and Big Data algorithms, and hopefully lessons will be learned for the future. Recently researchers from Imperial College have made some analysis for 202 countries. For Portugal, without efficient quarantine methods, they estimate 70,000 infected and nearly 4,000 dead.
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Interesting, although alarming, new insights are emerging.
In the current ICU capacity planning in my country, an average period of 10 days in ICU per patient was used for some capacity planning models. However, the actual minimum period that people with Covid-19 have to remain in ICU's turns out to be more like 21 days, effectively halving the available capacity.
Do note that the absolute number of ICU days per patient will differ by country, also because of differences in treatment leading up to ICU admission. Traditionally, the ICU period is relatively short in the Netherlands. Currently cohort departments are being opened where patients can receive treatment for lighter respiratory relief, to reduce the load on ICU's.
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The amount of data at the end of this crisis will no doubt be analysed by AI and Big Data algorithms, and hopefully lessons will be learned for the future.
this has already started. In 2005, my colleagues and I developed a business plan to establish an organization that would improve the way observational medical information could be used to examine pharmaceutical safety and efficacy. I made a presentation of industry CEOs in 2008, requesting an initial $20 million to get the project up and running. A lot of new methods were developed and the group turned into a world wide group of industry, government and academic researchers. Their international meeting that was to have taken place last week was cancelled and they used the time to create a giant COVID-19 study-a-thon with virtual meetings of work groups taking place over a five day period. More than 340 collaborators took part, 180 hours, 30 nations over six continents, in 17 different teams.
They wrapped up things last night and have a number of very good ideas that can be implemented moving forward. If you have a technical interest, here are the links: https://www.ohdsi.org/covid-19-updates/
Though I retired in 2010, this is my most important work accomplishment.
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Interesting, although alarming, new insights are emerging.
In the current ICU capacity planning in my country, an average period of 10 days in ICU per patient was used for some capacity planning models. However, the actual minimum period that people with Covid-19 have to remain in ICU's turns out to be more like 21 days, effectively halving the available capacity.
Do note that the absolute number of ICU days per patient will differ by country, also because of differences in treatment leading up to ICU admission. Traditionally, the ICU period is relatively short in the Netherlands. Currently cohort departments are being opened where patients can receive treatment for lighter respiratory relief, to reduce the load on ICU's.
Statistics are good if you have the right numbers and the right intentions/algorithms. Some people will spin any data towards what they want to prove.
In regards to the length of stay in the ICU, it depends. The very sick patients will require a significant amount of time in the ICU although some initial anecdotal data that I've seen suggests the inflammation/infection per se doesn't last that long. You deal after with your comorbidities and if you are unlucky with the exaggerated response from your immune system. So overall the length of stay will depend on your patient population in the area, both comorbidities and life choices. Cultural differences play a role on how much they want to be on a ventilator, should they have the option.
Balancing this however is the clear trend to intubate early. This is usually 2 fold: many of those who require a lot of noninvasive support will decompensate anyway, and those noninvasive methods (high flow oxygen, CPAP/BiPAP) lead to significant aerosolizaton which turned out to be a big problem with Covid.
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Interesting, although alarming, new insights are emerging.
In the current ICU capacity planning in my country, an average period of 10 days in ICU per patient was used for some capacity planning models. However, the actual minimum period that people with Covid-19 have to remain in ICU's turns out to be more like 21 days, effectively halving the available capacity.
Do note that the absolute number of ICU days per patient will differ by country, also because of differences in treatment leading up to ICU admission. Traditionally, the ICU period is relatively short in the Netherlands. Currently cohort departments are being opened where patients can receive treatment for lighter respiratory relief, to reduce the load on ICU's.
Unfortumately, no country is prepared for this... in Portugal, we try to follow the rule of 80-15-5, that is, 80% patients are treated at home (mild cases), 15% in hospitals, and 5% in ICUs. Thus far, today we have 127 deaths, mostly above 70 years old. Bad news: 50% of people that go into ICU die. Germany seems to be a good case of having enough hospital and ICU resources.
In Portugal, also people who have recovered (43 so far) on average spend 3 weeks in recovery. So yes, 10 days seems awfully optimistic.
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this has already started. In 2005, my colleagues and I developed a business plan to establish an organization that would improve the way observational medical information could be used to examine pharmaceutical safety and efficacy. I made a presentation of industry CEOs in 2008, requesting an initial $20 million to get the project up and running. A lot of new methods were developed and the group turned into a world wide group of industry, government and academic researchers. Their international meeting that was to have taken place last week was cancelled and they used the time to create a giant COVID-19 study-a-thon with virtual meetings of work groups taking place over a five day period. More than 340 collaborators took part, 180 hours, 30 nations over six continents, in 17 different teams.
They wrapped up things last night and have a number of very good ideas that can be implemented moving forward. If you have a technical interest, here are the links: https://www.ohdsi.org/covid-19-updates/
Though I retired in 2010, this is my most important work accomplishment.
Alan, this is much appreciated. I will certainly spend some time going through it, even though I am a geologist:)
And congratulations for participating in such initiatives.
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A good Q&A with Dr. Fauci:
Dr. Fauci Answers Trevor’s Questions About Coronavirus
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8A3jiM2FNR8
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Race to find COVID-19 treatments accelerates
Full article: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6485/1412.full
(https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/367/6485/1412/F1.large.jpg)
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Interesting, although alarming, new insights are emerging.
In the current ICU capacity planning in my country, an average period of 10 days in ICU per patient was used for some capacity planning models. However, the actual minimum period that people with Covid-19 have to remain in ICU's turns out to be more like 21 days, effectively halving the available capacity.
Do note that the absolute number of ICU days per patient will differ by country, also because of differences in treatment leading up to ICU admission. Traditionally, the ICU period is relatively short in the Netherlands. Currently cohort departments are being opened where patients can receive treatment for lighter respiratory relief, to reduce the load on ICU's.
In New York Columbia Presbyterian Hosp where I had my heart surgery last year, they have converted two floors used for heart surgery to ICU's for the virus. I wonder how many heart and other surgeries are being put off because of Covid-19? How do you count heart disease and other non-virus deaths that might be occurring that would not have if the surgeries and other medical procedures were done on a timely basis?
I understand this disease has priority so please don't attack me. I'm just trying to make a point that there are other medical problems and deaths that aren't being addressed because of the pandemic. Those figures will have to be included in the count when this whole thing is over.
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Make more PPE, everyone needs the stuff. Also remember if someone who is positive comes to an MD or urgent care office and sneezes or coughs you need to the have the tools to decontaminate things. Maybe they will dedicate a special room for taking the swab samples. this is not as easy a problem to solve.
I spoke to a friend who's in Florida for vacation and had to go to the doctor there. He waited outside in his car until the last patient left. Then went in. The receptionist was behind a glass barrier and a nurse was wearing a mask. The doctor barely touched him and wasn't wearing a mask. The doctor was a urologist. So I asked my friend if the doctor asked him to test himself? My friend said that no the doctor was prepared. Apparently the procedure calls for the doctor to wear a glove in any case. :)
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I understand this disease has priority so please don't attack me. I'm just trying to make a point that there are other medical problems and deaths that aren't being addressed because of the pandemic. Those figures will have to be included in the count when this whole thing is over.
Alan, I can only speak for what I'm told in the Dutch context. Urgent care is being given to other patients. Yesterday e.g. a heart transplant was performed in a Dutch Hospital, and other ICU care was administered to those who need it.
Planned operations may be postponed for a week or so until it becomes clearer that the ICU capacity will be available (the Covid-19 reproduction rate in the Netherlands seems to have dropped to 1.0 or less), but the Covid-19 patients take up beds that would otherwise have been empty, or they take up the additional beds that were, and still are being created specifically for them (we expect another peak in 1 week time). We also move patients around in the country to make space for the locally anticipated needs, and we even exchange space with our neighboring countries (especially Germany has a large spare ICU capacity).
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In New York Columbia Presbyterian Hosp where I had my heart surgery last year, they have converted two floors used for heart surgery to ICU's for the virus. I wonder how many heart and other surgeries are being put off because of Covid-19? How do you count heart disease and other non-virus deaths that might be occurring that would not have if the surgeries and other medical procedures were done on a timely basis?
I understand this disease has priority so please don't attack me. I'm just trying to make a point that there are other medical problems and deaths that aren't being addressed because of the pandemic. Those figures will have to be included in the count when this whole thing is over.
In Portugal, hospitals are set up with covid and nocovid areas. All non-urgent medical treatments are post-poned. In the last few days two trends have emerged:
- infections in home care houses for older people, many private, and that have done very little to be prepared... ending up with both staff and residents infected.
- 800+ medical staff infected.
Next up are prisons.
All of the above could have been prevented with proper and timely planning and preparation. It ispathetic to see the minister of Health saying that the numbers of how many residents exist in caring homes is "not clear".
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Alan, I can only speak for what I'm told in the Dutch context. Urgent care is being given to other patients. Yesterday e.g. a heart transplant was performed in a Dutch Hospital, and other ICU care was administered to those who need it.
Planned operations may be postponed for a week or so until it becomes clearer that the ICU capacity will be available (the Covid-19 reproduction rate in the Netherlands seems to have dropped to 1.0 or less), but the Covid-19 patients take up beds that would otherwise have been empty, or they take up the additional beds that were, and still are being created specifically for them (we expect another peak in 1 week time). We also move patients around in the country to make space for the locally anticipated needs, and we even exchange space with our neighboring countries (especially Germany has a large spare ICU capacity).
But elective surgery is down. I spoke to my nephew who's a researcher and surgical anesthesiologist in Boston's Massachusetts General Hospital. Operations are down two-thirds. Research has stopped completely. He's home right now with his wife who's a radiologist there. So a lot less regular medical things are happening. Obviously things can;t stay at the same level with all the extra requirements caused by Covid-19.
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Interesting, although alarming, new insights are emerging.
In the current ICU capacity planning in my country, an average period of 10 days in ICU per patient was used for some capacity planning models. However, the actual minimum period that people with Covid-19 have to remain in ICU's turns out to be more like 21 days, effectively halving the available capacity. <snip>
I see New York has been working on a system to share one ventilator between two patients. How, I don't know.
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In Portugal, hospitals are set up with covid and nocovid areas. All non-urgent medical treatments are post-poned. In the last few days two trends have emerged:
- infections in home care houses for older people, many private, and that have done very little to be prepared... ending up with both staff and residents infected.
- 800+ medical staff infected.
Next up are prisons.
All of the above could have been prevented with proper and timely planning and preparation. It ispathetic to see the minister of Health saying that the numbers of how many residents exist in caring homes is "not clear".
My 97 year old mother-in-law is in an assisted living residence close by. They shut it down for all visitors including my wife, her mother. Further up in New Jersey, a similar home had many deaths as the virus broke out there. So old age facilities are taken strong measures to protect the residents. They all have to eat in their rooms and not in the common dining room. It must be very tough on many of these people as they're isolated from friends and family.
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I see New York has been working on a system to share one ventilator between two patients. How, I don't know.
Shorter stints, alternating between the two.
I've heard this in the EU, not just NYC. Hard to separate fact from fiction.
TV reports that Mercedes F1/ have designed a simpler design ventilator. Simpler both to manufacture and operate. Not verified and no further details AFAIK.
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But elective surgery is down. I spoke to my nephew who's a researcher and surgical anesthesiologist in Boston's Massachusetts General Hospital. Operations are down two-thirds. Research has stopped completely. He's home right now with his wife who's a radiologist there. So a lot less regular medical things are happening. Obviously things can;t stay at the same level with all the extra requirements caused by Covid-19.
Here in Ontario, many doctors, dentists, and physiotherapists cancelled the appointments and won't schedule any new appointments until mid summer or fall. That's under the assumption, that the virus situation will soon improve.
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But elective surgery is down. I spoke to my nephew who's a researcher and surgical anesthesiologist in Boston's Massachusetts General Hospital. Operations are down two-thirds.[...]
That's most likely to create a buffer for the unknown number of patients.
We also experience some strange trends, like a reduction of Emergency admissions. Fewer people are going to the hospital. Maybe the Social Distancing also creates fewer accidents?
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That's most likely to create a buffer for the unknown number of patients.
We also experience some strange trends, like a reduction of Emergency admissions. Fewer people are going to the hospital. Maybe the Social Distancing also creates fewer accidents?
Also, who wants to go to a hospital where everyone is infected with the virus? Hospitals are dangerous places under normal conditions.
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Race to find COVID-19 treatments accelerates
Full article: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6485/1412.full
I've been tracking all the clinical trials and drug development world wide. For more on chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine see: https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/03/29/more-on-cloroquine-azithromycin-and-on-dr-raoult Immune serum for patients who have recovered is a nice approach but from what I have read, one person can yield only enough to treat two others. This is why humanized monoclonal antibodies are desperately needed. they can be produced at large scale. Lopinavir/ritonovir have already come up negative in two Chinese trials though there are still some more ongoing. I have not seen results from remdesivir. There is a bunch of other stuff going on and Johnson & Johnson just announced their vaccine plans today. They will begin trials in April and are building up capacity to produce a billion doses by sometime next year.
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TV reports that Mercedes F1/ have designed a simpler design ventilator. Simpler both to manufacture and operate. Not verified and no further details AFAIK.
The US had a contract several years ago for a streamlined model and through a variety of screw ups the project was halted. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/business/coronavirus-us-ventilator-shortage.html
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I see New York has been working on a system to share one ventilator between two patients. How, I don't know.
While it can be done in extreme cases, it should be reserved for the extreme cases only if you hope to get another vent available soon. It was done this way in Las Vegas after the shooting, but those were simpler cases from a lung pathology point of view. Otherwise it's a recipe for disaster.
The professional societies came up with a joint statement against it: https://www.asahq.org/about-asa/newsroom/news-releases/2020/03/joint-statement-on-multiple-patients-per-ventilator
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The US had a contract several years ago for a streamlined model and through a variety of screw ups the project was halted. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/business/coronavirus-us-ventilator-shortage.html
Supposedly the UK's Dyson vacuum cleaner company designed a ventilator in ten days and plans to quickly manufacture 15,000 of them. I have no further comment on that particular plan...8-)
https://futurism.com/the-byte/vaccuum-maker-dyson-designed-ventilator
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https://medium.com/@noahhaber/flatten-the-curve-of-armchair-epidemiology-9aa8cf92d652
Flatten the Curve of Armchair Epidemiology
Vet your sources or more people will be deluded
Everyone has seen messages telling you we must “act today or people will die,” COVID-19 is basically just the flu, and/or that “flattening the curve is a deadly delusion.” These often have numbers, charts, citations, retroactively edited titles (“taksies backsies”), and data “science.”
Unfortunately, all of the above are signs of DKE-19, a highly contagious illness threatening the response against COVID-19. We must act today to flatten the curve of armchair epidemiology, or we will all be in peril.
What is DKE-19?
Dunning-Kruger Effect (DKE) is a phenomenon where people lack the ability to understand their lack of ability.
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https://medium.com/@noahhaber/flatten-the-curve-of-armchair-epidemiology-9aa8cf92d652
Flatten the Curve of Armchair Epidemiology
Vet your sources or more people will be deluded
Why did you post this here, when the thread title says science and no politics. This post and the referenced article should have been posted on the other COVID-19 thread. You should respect the wishes of the OP.
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Why did you post this here, when the thread title says science and no politics. This post and the referenced article should have been posted on the other COVID-19 thread. You should respect the wishes of the OP.
+1
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I spoke to a friend who's in Florida for vacation and had to go to the doctor there.
Wow, you mean people are actually going on holidays in the US?
Here in Australia there is no essential travel.
You are only allowed to go to work (if it is considered essential), the supermarket or a health professional.
Only two people are allowed on the street together.
You are not allowed out of the country or even to another state.
If you are Australian only you can re-enter the country but you are bussed to a hotel for 14 days and have to stay in the room.
There is no elective surgery. Some hospitals are now Covid only and some for other illnesses.
The curve is now going down and we have 4200 cases and 18 dead.
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Why did you post this here, when the thread title says science and no politics. This post and the referenced article should have been posted on the other COVID-19 thread. You should respect the wishes of the OP.
It didn’t occur to me it has anything to do with politics, but rather with human (mis)understanding of the various scientific or media reports about the pandemic.
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It didn’t occur to me it has anything to do with politics, but rather with human (mis)understanding of the various scientific or media reports about the pandemic.
I understand but in the absence of good testing information, we are in this state of uncertainty. To your point, this is a very clear presentation: https://spectator.us/understand-report-figures-covid-deaths/ I'm pretty much in accord with this and think that the ultimate mortality will be higher than seasonal flu, maybe double at highest. The reason for the 'social distancing' is to keep the hospitals from being overloaded. I worry that they won't be able to take care of serious non-pandemic stuff like bone fractures, cardiac problems, etc.
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Combined effort Mercedes F1 and UCL intensive care dept.
high pressure oxygen unit fuels a tight fitting air mask or helmet,
forced air to keep the lungs open and get the air into blood stream.
100 hours to design , 10 days to get approval.
Sorry, just heard/saw this off SKY news, just a snippet ...
hopefully further details soon in the press
(unit looks no bigger than a large battery pack)
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< Dunning-Kruger Effect (DKE) is a phenomenon where people lack the ability to understand their lack of ability >
Seeing this in various forms, but irrespective this IS a pandemic and it IS a crisis. To focus on per capita data is missing the point and for where we are today is wholly irrelevant.
If comparing prevalence of cancer between countries, you’d adjust per capita, because it’s not a transmissible disease: it comes from lifestyle, genes, pure chance, so if per-capita rate is higher in A than B, then that’s because of something specific to that country. Covid spreads from person to person; it’s not like cancer. It’s exogenous.
Generally, these digressions are not informative regarding HOW a country’s dealing with Covid-19. So all we should be focussed on is the % increase as a measure of expansion (and containment). The rest can come later.
What’s clear is countries that adopted strict social distancing and early bird policies are faring substantially better than those who delayed. See the Australian stats in BobShaw’s post above.
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Combined effort Mercedes F1 and UCL intensive care dept.
high pressure oxygen unit fuels a tight fitting air mask or helmet,
forced air to keep the lungs open and get the air into blood stream.
100 hours to design , 10 days to get approval.
Sorry, just heard/saw this off SKY news, just a snippet ...
hopefully further details soon in the press
(unit looks no bigger than a large battery pack)
Those are basically CPAP/BiPAP machines, and we do have more of those although even more can't hurt.
The issue that I mentioned earlier is because of the high pressures there is significant aerosolization, and with Covid living up to 3h on air the risk to the people around is very high. This could be done in dedicated negative pressure floors where all patients are Covid positive and the medical personal has adequate protective equipment; it can be done but it's easier said than done. The failure to do both can explain at some extent the high rate of infection within physicians in Italy.
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Those are basically CPAP/BiPAP machines, and we do have more of those although even more can't hurt.
Spot on, Armand.
from The Times UK
A non-invasive breathing aid that can help to keep coronavirus patients from requiring intensive care has been developed and approved in a few days.
The device, known as continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP), was created by a partnership between the Mercedes Formula One team, University College London (UCL) and University College London Hospital (UCLH).
They work by pushing a mix of oxygen and air into the mouth and nose at a continuous rate, thereby increasing the oxygen into the lungs. They bridge the gap between an oxygen mask and the need for full mechanical ventilation, during which the patient must be sedated. Using them early can help prevent a patient needing ICU treatment.
Professor Tim Baker, of UCL’s department of mechanical engineering, said: “Given the urgent need, we are thankful that we were able to reduce a process that could take years down to a matter of days.
“We worked all hours of the day, disassembling and analysing an off-patent device. Using simulations we improved the device further to create a state-of-the-art version suited to mass production. We were privileged to be able to call on the capability of Formula One.”
The new design is an adapted and improved version, created via a process called reverse engineering. The Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency gave its approval to the device at the weekend. The first 100 machines are being delivered to UCLH for clinical trials. If they prove an asset they can be rapidly given to NHS hospitals across the country.
Some patients with Covid-19 develop inflammation in the lining of their lungs, and their alveoli, small buds responsible for transporting oxygen into the blood stream, collapse.
Experts from the Institute of Physics and Engineering in Medicine explained: “CPAP feels similar to breathing whilst having your head out the window of a moving car. The extra pressure helps to open up, and keep open, the collapsed alveoli and push oxygen across the inflamed lung membrane. Therefore, CPAP increases blood oxygen more than just giving oxygen using a conventional oxygen mask.”
[...] “If the patient can stay on a CPAP machine, they can stay on a ward looked after by specialised nurses rather than ICU nurses. A ward can probably look after ten of these patients with two nurses and one doctor. Ten patients in ICU may need five or ten nurses and three to four doctors. The cost and manpower needed in ICU is much, much greater, and ICU is a lot more complex and hazardous.”
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TV reports that Mercedes F1/ have designed a simpler design ventilator. Simpler both to manufacture and operate. Not verified and no further details AFAIK.
It's not a ventilator, it's some kind of simple CPAP device. Interestingly, it appears to have been approved by the relevant body (MHRA) with quite staggering speed.
Jeremy
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My 97 year old mother-in-law is in an assisted living residence close by. They shut it down for all visitors including my wife, her mother. Further up in New Jersey, a similar home had many deaths as the virus broke out there. So old age facilities are taken strong measures to protect the residents. They all have to eat in their rooms and not in the common dining room. It must be very tough on many of these people as they're isolated from friends and family.
I hope over there measures were implemented on time. The criticalthing is doing thing preventively, otherwise it is a disaster. The way this thing propagates initially, with small numbers, gives a false sense of security. Just because initailly the numbers are small, they still gorw exponentially and double every 2 or 3 days. This is happening in the islands of Portugal, Azores and Madeira - afew days ago there were 1 or 2 cases only, now it's reaching 50.
The safest area in Portugal is Alentejo province, where people live far away from each other. Even in medieval times, Kings would go there to avoid the plague...
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Auatralia ... result of adopting timely safety measures
4,400 coronavirus cases nationally ... rate of growth in new infections slowing from 25-30% a week ago to an average of 9% over the past three days. Of those, 50 people were in intensive care and 20 were on ventilators, Hunt said. The death toll stood at 19.
Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-australia/australias-coronavirus-infection-rate-shows-sustained-slowdown-idUSKBN21H3IM)
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... What’s clear is countries that adopted strict social distancing and early bird policies are faring substantially better than those who delayed...
How about Sweden?
No lockdown here: Sweden defends its more relaxed coronavirus strategy
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/sweden-coronavirus-approach-is-very-different-from-the-rest-of-europe.html
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How about Sweden?
No lockdown here: Sweden defends its more relaxed coronavirus strategy
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/sweden-coronavirus-approach-is-very-different-from-the-rest-of-europe.html
Yes that’s very interesting. I hope like hell it works out for them. If it does I can perhaps get on with my life. I am 60 this year and don’t feel like spending what remains of life under house arrest. I want to drive the 600km to Durban and swim in the warm Indian Ocean. And that’s just for starters.
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How about Sweden?
No lockdown here: Sweden defends its more relaxed coronavirus strategy
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/sweden-coronavirus-approach-is-very-different-from-the-rest-of-europe.html
Reading throught the entire article, they have implemented already some measures: no gatherings of more than 50 people (it used to be 500), all schools above 16 years of age are closed, older people are already being protected. I may be pessimistic, but the latest data from the link in the article is showing ~4,400 cases and 180 deaths. Of course, it all depends on each country "tolerance" threshold for death tolls, and each country preparedness in terms of health care and ICU capability.
Looking at swedish data from the linin the article, the distribution of age-infected and age of calsualties mimics other countries.
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How about Sweden?
What about Sweden ?
Social distancing and early adoption ...
While the rest of Europe imposes severe restrictions on public life and closes borders and businesses, Sweden is taking a more relaxed approach to the coronavirus outbreak.
This apparently laissez-faire approach has attracted criticism both from within Sweden, from a group of epidemiologists, as well from other countries which are locking down public life to curb the outbreak.
“Sweden has gone mostly for voluntary measures because that’s how we’re used to working,” Tegnell added.
He said the agency had explained to the population why social distancing was needed, “and so far, it’s been working reasonably well.”
Sweden has 3,700 confirmed cases of coronavirus and has recorded 110 deaths, the latest data from the Public Health Agency shows.
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(https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-eu.s3.amazonaws.com%2F6fcbcb4c-72c1-11ea-95fe-fcd274e920ca?fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=1080)
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Yes that’s very interesting. I hope like hell it works out for them. If it does I can perhaps get on with my life. I am 60 this year and don’t feel like spending what remains of life under house arrest. I want to drive the 600km to Durban and swim in the warm Indian Ocean. And that’s just for starters.
My wife and I live to travel and make images: one would be so much the poorer without the other. We are itching to resume normal life but are quite prepared if necessary to be constrained for the rest of this year for our and the greater good.
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Race to find COVID-19 treatments accelerates
Full article: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6485/1412.full
(https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/367/6485/1412/F1.large.jpg)
FWIW, which is probably not a lot, No 5 looks a lot like a coil that went wrong at some stage of the game. Boing, boing, boing - oh! ouch!
;-)
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Lessons learned?
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR3hY0g_MAFepN31fSV6v50Lr07Jkmm6UnELWfm1LExolZVtR6X3PuAHAyQ
1918 pandemia.
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You'd think after WWI there wouldn't have been WWII.
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How about Sweden?
No lockdown here: Sweden defends its more relaxed coronavirus strategy
IIRC, this is what the UK initially proposed to do. Then the Imperial College model came out and they changed to a 'lock-down' model. Sweden are now seeing accelerating mortality compared to Denmark. We will see how this strategy plays out.
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My wife and I live to travel and make images: one would be so much the poorer without the other. We are itching to resume normal life but are quite prepared if necessary to be constrained for the rest of this year for our and the greater good.
Absolutely. But hope does spring eternal in the human bosom.
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Absolutely. But hope does spring eternal in the human bosom.
Quite apart from the fact that many absolutely would spring for a human bosom.
:-(
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Using the numbers on the Johns Hopkins website, the US mortality rate is about 2%, or roughly 20 times higher than the average flu. But because of the lack of testing, we really don't know how many uncounted cases there are. I still don't understand the lack of a scientific sampling, which could be done in a few days with a high level of confidence in the result.
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Using the numbers on the Johns Hopkins website, the US mortality rate is about 2%, or roughly 20 times higher than the average flu. But because of the lack of testing, we really don't know how many uncounted cases there are. I still don't understand the lack of a scientific sampling, which could be done in a few days with a high level of confidence in the result.
And how confident is one with the actual counts of people that contract the yearly flu. I for one if I get a flu like condition during the winter months don't go to the doctor or hospital so I don't get counted.
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And how confident is one with the actual counts of people that contract the yearly flu. I for one if I get a flu like condition during the winter months don't go to the doctor or hospital so I don't get counted.
Small sampling is extrapolated to the whole population.
You don't have to test everyone. If you sample a thousand people in the state and 30 of them have the disease, that's 3%. If the whole state has 10 million people's you extrapolate the amount and say that 30000 in the state have the disease.
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And how confident is one with the actual counts of people that contract the yearly flu. I for one if I get a flu like condition during the winter months don't go to the doctor or hospital so I don't get counted.
Is that real influenza - or what we call her in the UK - 'Man Flu'.......? I'm 58 and I don't think I have ever had flu - I have had one chest infection and many bad colds though......
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And how confident is one with the actual counts of people that contract the yearly flu. I for one if I get a flu like condition during the winter months don't go to the doctor or hospital so I don't get counted.
That's why I found the dearth of kitchen roll more annoying than any shortage of loo roll. I am blessed with cold symptoms from the onset of the winter season; I doubt that a winter's day goes past that I have not sneezed or blown holes through paper towels.
No quack has a record of my symptoms these past so many years: I accept them as part of being whatever I happen to be. You could say that I found a crack through which to slip, time and time again.
;-(
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April 1st - but this, sadly, is no April fools post.
News that a Chinese female doctor, amongst the first to not just raise the alarm but criticise the authorities, hard on being dismissed, has now 'disappeared'. Regrettably, not limited to China - The Times UK today reports that UK frontline medics are 'threatened with the sack' if they speak of PPE shortages.
Times also reporting what most of us already know, UK response was woeful, politically expedient and tardy.
Nervtag (New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group) meeting, February 21, concluded that the official risk assessment should remain unchanged: “Current PHE risk assessment of the disease is moderate. The PHE risk assessment to the UK population is also moderate. This is a composite of what is known about transmission and the impact on public health globally and in the UK.”
The disclosure of the minutes offers a glimpse of scientific thinking as the outbreak emerged and raises questions about the speed of the response. On the day that the advisers met, Italy recorded its first coronavirus death and two days later schools in the north of the country were closed.
In the UK, schools were not closed until March 18, pubs and gyms followed, and a full lockdown was put in place on March 23.
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Final irony ;
Donald Trump has criticised Boris Johnson’s initial approach to the coronavirus pandemic saying it would have been “catastrophic” for the US. Britain’s relative shortage of ventilators was also highlighted in a White House briefing that will intensify pressure on the prime minister’s handling of the crisis.
Criticism is mounting as supplies of critical equipment promised by ministers fail to materialise, with testing of NHS workers a particular problem. Chris Hopson, the head of NHS Providers, said that if testing was available to all health workers 85 per cent of its staff currently unable to work because of fears they or someone in their household had the virus, could return to the front line.
One piece of positive news :
'Formula One' ventilators(*) are to be delivered to the NHS starting this weekend.
(*)
I'm using the popular term as referred to in the press. Otherwise CPAP.
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Got the email below from a friend. This could explain the high number of deaths in Italy.
I spoke to one of my Italian friends a couple of days ago. She said that her relatives in Italy reported that people are still not all adhering to the covid restrictions. Her cousin told her that someone got a van, equipped it as a hairdressing/cutting service and drove around neighbourhoods washing and colouring and cutting womens’ hair. Women were lined up in huge lines to get their hair done. Cops shut it down but I suspect the van just drove to another neighbourhood.
I am so surprised by this…why would women want to do this?? And who is going to see them?? (Especially in a closed casket!)
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Using the numbers on the Johns Hopkins website, the US mortality rate is about 2%, or roughly 20 times higher than the average flu. But because of the lack of testing, we really don't know how many uncounted cases there are. I still don't understand the lack of a scientific sampling, which could be done in a few days with a high level of confidence in the result.
John and others, IMO it has been a massive failure of both technology and imagination to not have been able to scale up massive diagnostic testing. We still don't have an approved serological (blood) test (I did see an Internet hoax yesterday that several news organization who should have known better bit on and published) that can be quickly deployed. Here is what I wrote in my daily email brief today:
I’m a big fan of podcasts and listen to them when I’m out walking, in my car, or working out. I may have already mentioned that Noah Feldman, a law professor at Harvard, has a very good one called ‘Deep Background’ https://pushkin.fm/deep-background (all of his podcasts are at the link). Yesterday, he had a conversation with Nobel Laureate in Economics Paul Romer and the discussion moved quickly to massive testing of the US population beyond what is being done right now. Romer, as we all do, wants to get people back to work and massive testing to find those who have not had SARS-CoV-2 or had it and have recovered would help solve this problem. There are obvious issues such as drastically ramping up test kits and keeping track of those who test negative, but in this day of big data and even bigger projects, this strikes me as the key one to undertake. Romer argued the point well and it’s worth a half hour to listen to it.
Yes, it's a massive project but better than sitting on our thumbs. So many failures.
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Updated situation today from Portugal, compared to other countries. Seems that we are distancing from the most scary trends, but others have done better.
Slide 1 - number of cumulative cases versus days, after 100th case.
Slide 2 - number of deaths versus number of days, after the 10th death.
NOTE - Portugal is the black line.
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Updated situation today from Portugal, compared to other countries. Seems that we are distancing from the most scary trends, but others have done better.
Slide 1 - number of cumulative cases versus days, after 100th case.
Slide 2 - number of deaths versus number of days, after the 10th death.
NOTE - Portugal is the black line.
Looks promising!
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... the discussion moved quickly to massive testing of the US population beyond what is being done right now. Romer, as we all do, wants to get people back to work and massive testing to find those who have not had SARS-CoV-2 or had it and have recovered would help solve this problem. T
I don't know enough of the situation in the USA, but I would have thought more important to test the front-line medical personnel first. That's the situation in the UK, and resentment growing by the minute, at the Government's failure to so do coupled w/ failure to provide PPE thereby continuing to endanger all those on the front line. Latest today is that only 14% of the NHS frontline have been tested.
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I don't know enough of the situation in the USA, but I would have thought more important to test the front-line medical personnel first. That's the situation in the UK, and resentment growing by the minute, at the Government's failure to so do coupled w/ failure to provide PPE thereby continuing to endanger all those on the front line. Latest today is that only 14% of the NHS frontline have been tested.
The whole thing about testing has been a cluster f*ck of high magnitude. Health care providers here also get first call on testing but there still is not enough testing to go around. I just saw that our county in Maryland where the National Institutes of Health is headquartered (1/2 mile from my house) cannot get enough test kits to address the local outbreak. We have a high number of biotech companies here, many of which could be doing testing in a dedicated lab space. None of this is rocket science.
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I don't know enough of the situation in the USA, but I would have thought more important to test the front-line medical personnel first.
Absolutely, top priority. From the looks of it, in one month time most countries might hit the peak pressure on ICU capacity (both in beds/ventilators as personnel). After that we might consider if there's enough test capability to start up other activities.
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Bright light or false hope ...
Doctors in New York have been prescribing critically ill coronavirus patients large doses of vitamin C, and it is also being trialled in hard-hit China. The results of a study at Wuhan University - where 140 patients are being given large amounts of the antioxidant intravenously to establish if it could improve outcomes - will not be completed until September.
Dr Andrew Weber, a pulmonologist and critical-care specialist in Long Island, said he had been giving his intensive care coronavirus patients 1,500 milligrams of intravenous vitamin C. Identical amounts of the dosage are then re-administered three or four times a day. "The patients who received vitamin C did significantly better than those who did not get vitamin C," he said.
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-can-large-doses-of-vitamin-c-prevent-or-help-to-treat-covid-19-11966790
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Bright light or false hope ...
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-can-large-doses-of-vitamin-c-prevent-or-help-to-treat-covid-19-11966790
anything in the popular press should be taken with a grain of salt. There is a huge amount of data coming out and it's all I can do just to read all the abstracts each morning. If one looks at the AI modeling papers that are predicting chemical structures that are or should be potent inhibitors of the virus, one ends up with a lot of compounds. By my count there are over 70 FDA-approved medicines that have been identified this way. For some of them we now have in vitro data regarding inhibition of the virus and some are being tested clinically. The problem is the current clinical trial process is not designed to address pandemic conditions. I'm sure that this will be addressed by the expert group looking post hoc at the pandemic. I have my own views based on work I did in the biopharma industry and am working on a paper to this end.
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The Canadian Prime Minister said today that it is realistic to expect that Covid-19 restrictions could be in place till July. I did not expect different. The number of cases in Canada continues to increase, but the feeling is that lot of those numbers result from increased testing. Deaths in Canada are not increasing at nearly the same rate, which is good. I saw a quote yesterday that only 1 out 2 ICU beds are in use at the moment, but there is still the expectation that the peak is still a couple of weeks away, although some are hopeful that the stay-at-home directives might show results by the end of this week. This last hope may be because sufficient time has passed since the snowbird return. I read an estimate that a million Canadians returned from abroad in March. I guess a lot of people enjoy heat much more than I do.
The upside is that we seem to be getting some feedback that the sacrifices we're making are accomplishing something useful.
One awful aspect is that retirement residences are being hit all over the country. One sad report is that the deaths at one residence, and staff illnesses, were traced back to one lady who had visited her husband.
I spoke with my 97 year old mother at a residence in Montreal that has been in lockdown for 3 weeks. Other than being bored by the 24/7 disease coverage on TV, she's taking it in stride. I guess that living through a depression and a war (in Italy) gives you perspective.
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NHS Nightingale (https://youtu.be/ey5Ux-2cI0A) : An engineering and logistical masterclass.
Britain’s first coronavirus field hospital has been built in London and will treat up to 4,000 previously fit and healthy people struck down by Covid-19. London patients in need of intensive care but with the best chance of survival will be taken to the Nightingale hospital, which has been constructed within the ExCel arena in the capital’s Docklands area in the space of a week.
... against that, it’s reported that of an NHS personnel of >500,000, only 2,000 have been tested. Speechless.
*edit: on a lighter note, a humorous press analogy:
Whereas Britain is struggling to carry out 50,000 tests in a week, Germany sometimes does twice as many in a day. Or to put it in footballing terms – and we are talking about Germany, after all – they can test an entire FA Cup final crowd in the same time it takes the NHS to swab a home crowd at Peterborough United. (5,000)
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The whole thing about testing has been a cluster f*ck of high magnitude. Health care providers here also get first call on testing but there still is not enough testing to go around. I just saw that our county in Maryland where the National Institutes of Health is headquartered (1/2 mile from my house) cannot get enough test kits to address the local outbreak. We have a high number of biotech companies here, many of which could be doing testing in a dedicated lab space. None of this is rocket science.
In Portugal, a few days ago, we entered the "mitigation" phase, which means testing criteria was expanded to include more people. So now we are doing say 5,000 tests a day, but the labs can not handle that number, so results take a few days.
Today I saw that patients should only leave the hospital after doing 2 (negative) tests, separated 14 days. Thing is, hospitals need the beds, and can not wait for the result of the test #2, so they let the patient out anyway...
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The US FDA finally approved the first blood test for SARS-CoV-2 virus antibodies. It requires a normal venus puncture blood draw which is not convenient. We need a test that will work on a pin prick amount of blood. Despite the approval lots of gene test kits, many states still cannot do enough testing. The new rapid test kit from Abbott is particularly hard to get and some places will not have the right equipment to run it: https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/01/scramble-rapid-coronavirus-tests-everybody-wants/
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A friend found this article about the mathematical modelling of epidemics https://www.wired.com/story/the-mathematics-of-predicting-the-course-of-the-coronavirus (https://www.wired.com/story/the-mathematics-of-predicting-the-course-of-the-coronavirus).
His summary, 'Comparing the Univ of Washington model described here with current figures, it appears that the total US case figure is now where the model predicted it should be in a week's time'. The article is longish but not overly technical.
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The Canadian Prime Minister said today that it is realistic to expect that Covid-19 restrictions could be in place till July. I did not expect different. The number of cases in Canada continues to increase, but the feeling is that lot of those numbers result from increased testing. Deaths in Canada are not increasing at nearly the same rate, which is good. I saw a quote yesterday that only 1 out 2 ICU beds are in use at the moment, but there is still the expectation that the peak is still a couple of weeks away, although some are hopeful that the stay-at-home directives might show results by the end of this week. This last hope may be because sufficient time has passed since the snowbird return. I read an estimate that a million Canadians returned from abroad in March. I guess a lot of people enjoy heat much more than I do.
The upside is that we seem to be getting some feedback that the sacrifices we're making are accomplishing something useful.
One awful aspect is that retirement residences are being hit all over the country. One sad report is that the deaths at one residence, and staff illnesses, were traced back to one lady who had visited her husband.
I spoke with my 97 year old mother at a residence in Montreal that has been in lockdown for 3 weeks. Other than being bored by the 24/7 disease coverage on TV, she's taking it in stride. I guess that living through a depression and a war (in Italy) gives you perspective.
I really find it appaling that countries have not prepared for this subject of retirement homes. I see the same problem in Italy, Spain, Portugal, and now you mention Canada.
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A friend found this article about the mathematical modelling of epidemics https://www.wired.com/story/the-mathematics-of-predicting-the-course-of-the-coronavirus (https://www.wired.com/story/the-mathematics-of-predicting-the-course-of-the-coronavirus).
His summary, 'Comparing the Univ of Washington model described here with current figures, it appears that the total US case figure is now where the model predicted it should be in a week's time'. The article is longish but not overly technical.
This is one of the things I have been tracking. I am seeing about 5-6 pre-prints of models every day. There are some nice ones that have been put up on GitHub for researchers to use. The are all probably within 10% of one another. The big thing is to relieve the burden on hospitals and then put a massive testing infrastructure in place so that people can get back to work. I'm working on some lessons learned papers to better inform on how to deal with the next one.
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I really find it appaling that countries have not prepared for this subject of retirement homes. I see the same problem in Italy, Spain, Portugal, and now you mention Canada.
They are very vulnerable places. Old population, many health problems, with not always a good understanding of biology, communal eating and people coming to visit all the time. My mother's residence closed to all visitors weeks ago and are delivering food to each apartment, no congregating in the lounge areas, etc. But you can see how a simple slip-up, e.g., delivering prescriptions, could cause a problem. And there is a fairly large staff who go home every night, although they have their own incentive to abide by rules and guidelines, they don't want to get sick either.
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They are very vulnerable places. Old population, many health problems, with not always a good understanding of biology, communal eating and people coming to visit all the time. My mother's residence closed to all visitors weeks ago and are delivering food to each apartment, no congregating in the lounge areas, etc. But you can see how a simple slip-up, e.g., delivering prescriptions, could cause a problem. And there is a fairly large staff who go home every night, although they have their own incentive to abide by rules and guidelines, they don't want to get sick either.
I've had my father/mother in law in full time care homes and the biggest problem is the lack of facilities and staff. There is a constant long line of patients waiting to get a spot in these care homes and the staff in these homes work their butts off, burning out and having a huge turn over. With the boomer bulge about to enter that stage, it's going to be a huge issue.
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Cross-posted in the 'other' thread, but more useful here :
(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49730423701_617bb2a1b9_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/2iLvqoi)
(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49730417596_f6bffe5ab7_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/2iLvoz3)
(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49730767132_9329583ce7_b.jpg)
(https://flic.kr/p/2iLxbtw)
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Looks like the data is going to be examined from every angle, and should be. Is there anyone looking at the impact of travel? People are arguing about the exact date that travel to China was stopped, but given how ubiquitous travel is everywhere would it have had much impact to do it sooner? Canada stopped/controlled travel to China, I forget on which date, but about a million Canadians returned from abroad in the last few weeks. Isn't that kind of a wash from the point of view of risk?
It seems kind of impossible to isolate any one region of the globe after the fact, although some travel slowdown might aid in curve flattening. That is to say, it's just one more facet not necessarily a critical one. Is this sensible or am I missing something?
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I have a question about face masks, as they are being touted as a useful tool to wear generally.
The first report I heard/read about this (some podcast or other about 3 weeks ago) was that the virus was about a micron in size whereas masks were good down to about 3 microns. Is this correct or faulty memory on my part? The thing is that it's all a haze now, not sure which masks they were talking about anymore.
Is it the mask itself that is helping or is it that people who wear masks are just generally more careful and do everything else right too? How would you even determine this?
It would be counter-productive if people start to feel invincible because they have a mask on.
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... It would be counter-productive if people start to feel invincible because they have a mask on.
About half of the people I encountered in restaurants and shops wear their masks around their neck.
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I have a question about face masks, as they are being touted as a useful tool to wear generally.
The first report I heard/read about this (some podcast or other about 3 weeks ago) was that the virus was about a micron in size whereas masks were good down to about 3 microns. Is this correct or faulty memory on my part? The thing is that it's all a haze now, not sure which masks they were talking about anymore.
Is it the mask itself that is helping or is it that people who wear masks are just generally more careful and do everything else right too? How would you even determine this?
It would be counter-productive if people start to feel invincible because they have a mask on.
From what I've heard, the size is < 1.0 micron. But direct infection is not likely if people maintain a physical distance of 5-6 feet. Probably most infections are indirect, from toughing infected surfaces and subsequently eyes, nose or mouth. Face masks can make matters worse, increasing infection, when touched (taking them off). Besides, they are more useful in the hands of trained medical professionals, whom are faced with a shortage.
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About half of the people I encountered in restaurants and shops wear their masks around their neck.
Kind of makes sense in a restaurant. :)
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Kind of makes sense in a restaurant. :)
Absolutely, but why are they open anyway?
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From my point of view the main benefit of a mask is to decrease the extent of infectious particles that somebody infected will spread, particularly if they cough. Also there will be less contaminated surfaces that aren't touched or cleaned that often if you cough with a mask on.
The other possible advantage would be that it will decrease how often you touch your face if you have a mask.
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Fighting COVID-19 Is Like 'Whack-A-Mole,' Says Writer Who Warned Of A Pandemic
https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/01/825179922/fighting-covid-19-is-like-whack-a-mole-says-writer-who-warned-of-pandemic
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I have a question about face masks, as they are being touted as a useful tool to wear generally.
The first report I heard/read about this (some podcast or other about 3 weeks ago) was that the virus was about a micron in size whereas masks were good down to about 3 microns. Is this correct or faulty memory on my part? The thing is that it's all a haze now, not sure which masks they were talking about anymore.
Is it the mask itself that is helping or is it that people who wear masks are just generally more careful and do everything else right too? How would you even determine this?
It would be counter-productive if people start to feel invincible because they have a mask on.
It's the opposite of what you are thinking. The mask does more good preventing the virus from being airborne from people already infected. That is one reason people think Asian countries better handle this virus, their culture of not spreading their germs onto others. In Japan it is looked down upon if you cough or sneeze in the presence of others...thus many wears masks when they are sick so not to spread their virus onto others.
The western culture is to protect self, the Asian culture is to protect others.
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Kind of makes sense in a restaurant. :)
I meant restaurant workers who are preparing takeout food and delivering it to you through a narrow opening. In my town, restaurants are closed. Not in Sweden though.
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I have a question about face masks, as they are being touted as a useful tool to wear generally.
This is an ongoing issue, or as the CMO said this afternoon in his daily Downing Street broadcast, somwthinng under discussion for over 15 years. The Brits, in the absence of definitive stats, consider it essential only for medical staff. In Asia, it's customary / habitual.
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... In Asia, it's customary / habitual.
Isn't it also for polluted air (crop burning)?
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Isn't it also for polluted air (crop burning)?
Try one in a polluted area and see how much they help.
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From what I've heard, the size is < 1.0 micron. But direct infection is not likely if people maintain a physical distance of 5-6 feet. Probably most infections are indirect, from toughing infected surfaces and subsequently eyes, nose or mouth. Face masks can make matters worse, increasing infection, when touched (taking them off). Besides, they are more useful in the hands of trained medical professionals, whom are faced with a shortage.
As I understand it, the viruses are less than a micron, but are not spread as naked viruses -- they are embedded in saliva spray (as in coughing) and the spray droplets are considerably larger than 3 microns.
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From what I've heard, the size is < 1.0 micron. But direct infection is not likely if people maintain a physical distance of 5-6 feet. Probably most infections are indirect, from toughing infected surfaces and subsequently eyes, nose or mouth. Face masks can make matters worse, increasing infection, when touched (taking them off). Besides, they are more useful in the hands of trained medical professionals, whom are faced with a shortage.
As I understand it, the viruses are less than a micron, but are not spread as naked viruses -- they are embedded in saliva spray (as in coughing) and the spray droplets are considerably larger than 3 microns.
You are both correct.
Most infections are from indirect contact, particularly as this virus seems to be a little more resilient than the regular flu. If you keep touching your mask and not wash hands after, it can do more harm than good.
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As I understand it, the viruses are less than a micron, but are not spread as naked viruses -- they are embedded in saliva spray (as in coughing) ...
That doesn't entirely fit with the hand to eyes/nose/mouth infection risk. I'm not saying it's incorect, just that from what I'm hearing the risk is equally spread.
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... If you keep touching your mask and find wash hands after, it can do more harm than good.
Armand, could you clarify this, please ?
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Armand, could you clarify this, please ?
Sorry, typing from my phone with autocorrect enabled can lead to weird statements.
When you have the mask on, it can protect you from droplets from nearby coughers and it can prevent you from touching your face with contaminated hands. However, you should consider your mask as a contamination source when you take it off or just touching it.
So you should take it off with care not to touch the outside of your mask to your face, or to touch your face with your hands when you take the mask off. After it's off, you should immediately wash your hands or use sanitizer.
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That doesn't entirely fit with the hand to eyes/nose/mouth infection risk. I'm not saying it's incorect, just that from what I'm hearing the risk is equally spread.
When you cough, those droplets can go directly on somebody's face or to different surfaces.
It can live on those surfaces for various amounts of time, hours to days. If you touch those surfaces (eg. knobs) with your hands and then touch your face (mouth, nose, eyes) you risk getting the virus that way.
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Armand, thanks!
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I meant restaurant workers who are preparing takeout food and delivering it to you through a narrow opening. In my town, restaurants are closed. Not in Sweden though.
Ok, gotcha.
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Looks like the data is going to be examined from every angle, and should be. Is there anyone looking at the impact of travel? People are arguing about the exact date that travel to China was stopped, but given how ubiquitous travel is everywhere would it have had much impact to do it sooner? Canada stopped/controlled travel to China, I forget on which date, but about a million Canadians returned from abroad in the last few weeks. Isn't that kind of a wash from the point of view of risk?
It seems kind of impossible to isolate any one region of the globe after the fact, although some travel slowdown might aid in curve flattening. That is to say, it's just one more facet not necessarily a critical one. Is this sensible or am I missing something?
the big outbreak in Boston started at a meeting of world-wide representatives at a biopharma company, Biogen. There were reps from Italy who brought the disease here and spread it. there are other stories as well.
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About half of the people I encountered in restaurants and shops wear their masks around their neck.
I don't wear one when I go out. I figure I'm protected because everyone else is wearing them. I go to the store at 0700 when it opens for an hour for those >60 years. There was a guy who was in line and was taking his mask on and off. The mask also doesn't protect you from virus getting into your eyes or on non-mask parts of your face which you then touch when you get home!!
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here is a well-made video about the benefits of making and using face masks. 3'30" in length. Made in a country with a low C19 infection and death count.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZtEX2-n2Hc
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here is a well-made video about the benefits of making and using face masks. . . . Made in a country with a low C19 infection and death count.
Similarly Taiwan, where anyone leaving home is required to wear a face mask. Currently 348 confirmed cases and five deaths attributed to COVID-19 on the island, which has a population of just under 24 million. Taiwan is not restricting movement to the extent of most countries, but my wife's brother, who lives in Taipei, told her this evening that the body temperature of anyone entering a business, government, or other public building is checked. (Singapore has essentially identical rules.)
The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is now, somewhat belatedly, also recommending their use:
We now know from recent studies that a significant portion of individuals with coronavirus lack symptoms (“asymptomatic”) and that even those who eventually develop symptoms (“pre-symptomatic”) can transmit the virus to others before showing symptoms. This means that the virus can spread between people interacting in close proximity—for example, speaking, coughing, or sneezing—even if those people are not exhibiting symptoms. In light of this new evidence, CDC recommends wearing cloth face coverings in public settings where other social distancing measures are difficult to maintain (e.g., grocery stores and pharmacies) especially in areas of significant community-based transmission.
In addition to preventing the spread of droplets from coughs or sneezes, a mask also reduces the risk that the wearer will unknowingly touch his or her face with a hand that has been in contact with a surface containing virus-laden droplets.
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About half of the people I encountered in restaurants and shops wear their masks around their neck.
How do you eat if you're wearing the mask around your mouth? Not only won't the germs get in. Neither will the Big Mac. :)
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I don't wear one when I go out. I figure I'm protected because everyone else is wearing them. I go to the store at 0700 when it opens for an hour for those >60 years. There was a guy who was in line and was taking his mask on and off. The mask also doesn't protect you from virus getting into your eyes or on non-mask parts of your face which you then touch when you get home!!
My wife and I refuse to go into a store any longer, mask or no mask. Curbside pickup using phone orders only. I just got in 50 surgical type masks. I think So Korea made them. Does not seem to have any credentials. But I suppose it's better then nothing. I ordered some KN-95 and more surgical type masks directly from China. I figure they must know what they're doing if their statistics are real, an unlikely situation. I hope I get them soon.
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I think the CDC is opposed to regular people using them is to protect supplies for emergency and medical workers. If you shop on Amazon, they have a note to that effect.
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How do you eat if you're wearing the mask around your mouth? Not only won't the germs get in. Neither will the Big Mac. :)
You marinade it in a kosher pickle brine for 24 hours, then put thinly sliced Harvatti cheese and salsa on it.
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You marinade it in a kosher pickle brine for 24 hours, then put thinly sliced Harvatti cheese and salsa on it.
That would kill the virus germs for sure. I think you should patent it. It would make a great vaccine as well.
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I don't wear one when I go out. I figure I'm protected because everyone else is wearing them.
And you don't feel you should protect other people from you, in case you're carrying it?
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About half of the people I encountered in restaurants and shops wear their masks around their neck.
Jesus, your restaurants are still open? And you go to them?
P.S.
Thanks for the explanaton later on in the thread.
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And you don't feel you should protect other people from you, in case you're carrying it?
Yes, I too found that a surprising statement/attitude from somebody in the medic business.
Rob
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My wife and I refuse to go into a store any longer, mask or no mask. Curbside pickup using phone orders only. I just got in 50 surgical type masks. I think So Korea made them. Does not seem to have any credentials. But I suppose it's better then nothing. I ordered some KN-95 and more surgical type masks directly from China. I figure they must know what they're doing if their statistics are real, an unlikely situation. I hope I get them soon.
While I'm sceptical about the benefits of wearing masks in non-medical environments (keeping distance in public space and washing hands works almost as well), there are some things that can be done to improve surgical type masks.
Fix the mask:
https://www.fixthemask.com/
Masks need to be discarded regularly or they will become a larger source of contamination than not wearing them. I think that at this moment in time into the process, it's better to make sure that medical professionals have access to these masks.
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And you don't feel you should protect other people from you, in case you're carrying it?
Just keep distance (5-6 feet). The droplets do not travel much farther than that before settling on surfaces, so you won't contaminate others, and others can't contaminate you. BTW one should stay out of spaces with others as much as possible anyway, limit the number of shopping trips and wash hands (before and after).
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Just keep distance (5-6 feet). The droplets do not travel much farther than that before settling on surfaces, so you won't contaminate others, and others can't contaminate you. BTW one should stay out of spaces with others as much as possible anyway, limit the number of shopping trips and wash hands (before and after).
After shopping, I extend that regime to include giving the face a good wash. After all, it has a greater surface than just the exposed eyes and ears!
Rob
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A multinational consortium shows promising in vitro trial https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-04-trial-drug-significantly-block-early.html (https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-04-trial-drug-significantly-block-early.html). Early tests show the drug stops early stage cell penetration. I know nothing other than that, a friend found this.
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From Nature, an article about airborne transmission and the efficacy of masks https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2).
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I don't wear one when I go out. I figure I'm protected because everyone else is wearing them.
How very public-spirited of you, Alan.
Let us hope that you don't catch it and spread it, by coughing and sneezing, because you aren't wearing a mask.
Jeremy
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A multinational consortium shows promising in vitro trial https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-04-trial-drug-significantly-block-early.html (https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-04-trial-drug-significantly-block-early.html). Early tests show the drug stops early stage cell penetration. I know nothing other than that, a friend found this.
I read this paper when it came out as a pre-print. This is not a drug but a genetically engineered protein that is similar to the protein binding site of the virus. It will likely have to be infused as it cannot be given orally. It's unclear whether it is useful in treating severely ill patients and it certainly does not have any utility for treating those with moderate symptoms to shorten the duration of viral infections.
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How very public-spirited of you, Alan.
Let us hope that you don't catch it and spread it, by coughing and sneezing, because you aren't wearing a mask.
Jeremy
I don't cough or sneeze when I go out. When I go to the market, I am in and out in 10 minutes and always use the self-check out. I also live in a suburban, low density, housing setting. It's good to see that you have not lost your snarky sense of humor and have no comprehension of living and shopping environments here in the US.
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The brilliant Governor of my state of New Jersey has been recommending that family members practice social distancing at home. Of course, my wife and I have been practicing that since before the virus. :)
New Jersey governor says people should practice social distancing with 'other family members' at home
https://www.foxnews.com/us/new-jersey-social-distancing-recommendation
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The brilliant Governor of my state of New Jersey has been recommending that family members practice social distancing at home. Of course, my wife and I have been practicing that since before the virus. :)
New Jersey governor says people should practice social distancing with 'other family members' at home
What about all the people who are trying to find someone with whom they could do the social distancing?
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What about all the people who are trying to find someone with whom they could do the social distancing?
Actually, I know people, single, who are very lonely having to be cooped up with themselves, not being able to get out.
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Actually, I know people, single, who are very lonely having to be cooped up with themselves, not being able to get out.
I hope you told them welcome to retirement.
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I don't cough or sneeze when I go out. When I go to the market, I am in and out in 10 minutes and always use the self-check out. I also live in a suburban, low density, housing setting. It's good to see that you have not lost your snarky sense of humor and have no comprehension of living and shopping environments here in the US.
You cannot possibly know when you go out whether or not you will cough or sneeze at some point during the trip. Rather than take part in precautions, you are throwing the burden on everyone else.
If you believe that masks serve any purpose (and you clearly do, or you would have suggested that everyone else is wasting their time rather than relying on them to do the right thing), your behaviour is quite reprehensible. You are being selfish and irresponsible. "I'm too important to bother with safety mechanisms: the little people can do that. I shall strut as I choose." Leona Helmsley lives.
Jeremy
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You cannot possibly know when you go out whether or not you will cough or sneeze at some point during the trip. Rather than take part in precautions, you are throwing the burden on everyone else.
If you believe that masks serve any purpose (and you clearly do, or you would have suggested that everyone else is wasting their time rather than relying on them to do the right thing), your behaviour is quite reprehensible. You are being selfish and irresponsible. "I'm too important to bother with safety mechanisms: the little people can do that. I shall strut as I choose." Leona Helmsley lives.
Jeremy
I'm taking all the necessary precautions. What works for you where you live may be entirely different from over here. Have you spent 10 seconds wondering why people are wearing masks but now protective eye glasses since the virus can enter there? Most people are wearing their masks wrong, some even adjust them while they are out. I could go on and on and on. If it will please you, I'll gladly wear a bandana next time I go to the market.
There are small number of us who are trying to present up to date scientific information here; I don't see you doing this, only scolding people.
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The best way to go about it is to consider that you are infected and to adjust you behavior as to not infect others.
Even if you think you are not.
This would be the most effective way to limit the spread. It's even more valid for young people who will be asymptomatic more often, but you never know. You can be asymptomatic but infectious for 2 days prior to starting having symptoms.
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CDC even shows you how to make a quick facemask: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/cloth-face-cover.html
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How Germany seems to be doing it better, because they learned from others' experiences and had good foresight: https://nyti.ms/2JEVPH6
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The thing with masks is that they are not designed to protect the wearer. A doctor wears a mask to protect the vulnerable patient from infection. If the patient is known to be highly infectious then they wear a lot more, like full covering.
Asians quite often wear masks to not infect others. It is part of their culture, so it is not uncommon to see them all wearing them all the time, especially now.
The mask actually is a collector of germs so it needs to be thrown out or washed each time. Touching the mask to remove it exposes you and you should wash your hands immediately.
In Australia we are being told not to wear masks as they need them for medical people. A few are complaining but all of the experts are saying not to wear them.
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In Australia we are being told not to wear masks as they need them for medical people. A few are complaining but all of the experts are saying not to wear them.
Yes, the medical and surgical masks should be reserved for medical staff. However, wearing simple homemade masks or bandanas won't jeopardize the wearers or other bystanders.
I just got a simple mask sewn by a friend, and I know of many other people making masks for themselves and their family. There are plenty of youtube videos how to make simple masks even without sewing.
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Given that store-bought masks are going to be unobtanium for a while, I did a little research on DIY masks. Turns out blue shop towel is a good material.
https://totallythebomb.com/blue-shop-towels-may-be-the-best-material-to-use-when-making-face-masks
Just made one of these:
https://youtu.be/edQAHCRTIVQ
albeit without the paper clip nose piece. Fairly comfortable
Have a 12-pack of blue shop towel rolls in the garage, so I'm "covered" for a while.
edit: ran out to Office Deport to buy paper clips and rubber bands. The paper clip makes the mask a little fiddly to make, but it does give a better seal, and keeps my glasses from trying to fog up.
I'm using #33 rubber bands and #1 paper clips, they seem to be the right size.
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I'm taking all the necessary precautions. What works for you where you live may be entirely different from over here. Have you spent 10 seconds wondering why people are wearing masks but now protective eye glasses since the virus can enter there? Most people are wearing their masks wrong, some even adjust them while they are out. I could go on and on and on. If it will please you, I'll gladly wear a bandana next time I go to the market.
There are small number of us who are trying to present up to date scientific information here; I don't see you doing this, only scolding people.
Now you know how Trump must feel. :)
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How Germany seems to be doing it better, because they learned from others' experiences and had good foresight: https://nyti.ms/2JEVPH6
Germany has almost as many deaths as America on a per capita basis. We must be doing well too.
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The thing with masks is that they are not designed to protect the wearer. A doctor wears a mask to protect the vulnerable patient from infection. If the patient is known to be highly infectious then they wear a lot more, like full covering.
Asians quite often wear masks to not infect others. It is part of their culture, so it is not uncommon to see them all wearing them all the time, especially now.
The mask actually is a collector of germs so it needs to be thrown out or washed each time. Touching the mask to remove it exposes you and you should wash your hands immediately.
In Australia we are being told not to wear masks as they need them for medical people. A few are complaining but all of the experts are saying not to wear them.
So now in America, the word is out that we should wear masks. That fact is we're all just fumbling around like the blind leading the halt. There's no way to know exactly what you have to do until it's past the point when you probably should have already acted. Isn't that always true about history?
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Yes, the medical and surgical masks should be reserved for medical staff. However, wearing simple homemade masks or bandanas won't jeopardize the wearers or other bystanders.
I just got a simple mask sewn by a friend, and I know of many other people making masks for themselves and their family. There are plenty of youtube videos how to make simple masks even without sewing.
Simple mask were available on Amazon. I just received in 50 of them. Why didn't you order some before? Were you listening to Trump. :)
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This was a serious thread with useful information for a while.
Alan, place those sophomoric pictures on the other thread please.
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This was a serious thread with useful information for a while.
Alan, place those sophomoric pictures on the other thread please.
I don't think he can control himself, as it was said before, it's a reflex now.
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Germany has almost as many deaths as America on a per capita basis. We must be doing well too.
Can you for once actually read the article?
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Simple mask were available on Amazon. I just received in 50 of them. Why didn't you order some before? Were you listening to Trump. :)
Thanks for the tip, Alan
At this time, I have two well made, heavy-duty face masks made by a friend. Also, I have several scarves, and some old garments from which I could make bandanas and simple masks.
But the main thing is that I don't venture out much, and when I do, I try to keep a safe distance from others.
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Alan, you can delete your post, using the Remove function. And then I'll delete this one by me.
I removed both pictures. I'm sorry for offending you and everyone else.
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Given that store-bought masks are going to be unobtanium for a while, I did a little research on DIY masks. Turns out blue shop towel is a good material.
https://totallythebomb.com/blue-shop-towels-may-be-the-best-material-to-use-when-making-face-masks
Just made one of these:
https://youtu.be/edQAHCRTIVQ
albeit without the paper clip nose piece. Fairly comfortable
Have a 12-pack of blue shop towel rolls in the garage, so I'm "covered" for a while.
edit: ran out to Office Deport to buy paper clips and rubber bands. The paper clip makes the mask a little fiddly to make, but it does give a better seal, and keeps my glasses from trying to fog up.
I'm using #33 rubber bands and #1 paper clips, they seem to be the right size.
Good stuff, looks like I found another hobby :D
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I wonder if Trump will give us money for decreasing home prices. Here we go again.
A $1.3 Trillion U.S. Housing Market Crash Is Imminent, and Inevitable
https://www.ccn.com/a-1-3-trillion-u-s-housing-market-crash-is-imminent-and-inevitable/
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Gasoline prices will remain low offsetting the drop in your home values. What a mess.
Oil set to ‘crater’ Monday as OPEC meeting delayed, tensions flare between Saudi Arabia and Russia
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/04/oil-set-to-crater-monday-as-opec-meeting-delayed-tensions-flare-between-saudi-arabia-and-russia.html
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This was a serious thread with useful information for a while.
Strongly seconded. There’s another COVID-19 thread for political arguments, economic pontification, and other personal opinions. Let’s reserve this one for discussion of the virus and the medical response to it — hopefully supported by factual information.
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As an update on the mask question, as of this morning we in Lombardy are now required to wear a mask whenever we leave home. Good news, I'm tired of having to take even more precautions because of other people's irresponsibility. (Though I still can't go for a walk in the woods because people treated it like a picnic opportunity....)
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On the past two Thursdays at 8pm people have stood outside their houses or at an open window and clapped for the National Health Service and the amazing selfless work they are doing to treat patients and reconfigure hospitals to cope with increasing demand. To then hear of people going out because it is nice weather and getting too close seems selfish in the extreme.
Jonathan
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[...]Let’s reserve this one for discussion of the virus and the medical response to it — hopefully supported by factual information.
+1
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... as of this morning we in Lombardy are now required to wear a mask whenever we leave home. Good news ...
Kamma1, where (as in which region) of Lombardy are you ?
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I'm taking all the necessary precautions. What works for you where you live may be entirely different from over here. Have you spent 10 seconds wondering why people are wearing masks but now protective eye glasses since the virus can enter there? Most people are wearing their masks wrong, some even adjust them while they are out. I could go on and on and on. If it will please you, I'll gladly wear a bandana next time I go to the market.
There are small number of us who are trying to present up to date scientific information here; I don't see you doing this, only scolding people.
You are eliding three separate issues.
1. I am sure The Daily Goldhammer is read with fascination by many. I am not among them, but if preparing it gives you something to do and makes you feel useful, by all means persist. Others have different ways of self-justification.
2. Standard surgical masks worn for personal protection are probably almost totally ineffective. It's not what they were designed to do. Proper PPE is dramatically different.
3. Surgical masks worn in public to prevent spread by those infected to prevent spread are probably useful. It is wearing a mask for that purpose which you wilfully refuse to do; as you have observed, those around you are wearing them, so you are relatively safe and it plainly doesn't concern you that you may unwittingly pass on infection to others while you are asymptomatic.
It is the casual disregard for anyone save yourself, the unwillingness to take the trivial precaution adopted by those around you, that is reprehensible.
Jeremy
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I don't cough or sneeze when I go out. When I go to the market, I am in and out in 10 minutes and always use the self-check out. I also live in a suburban, low density, housing setting. It's good to see that you have not lost your snarky sense of humor and have no comprehension of living and shopping environments here in the US.
1. It's amazing to learn that you are the only individual on God's Earth who has total control of where, when and why he sneezes or coughs.
2. Many of us live in low-density housing area. I live in a holiday resort. It's empty of tourists every winter, and by the manner in which the Spanish resident behave today, it appears totally empty of Spaniards too, except for those who toil daily in the food supply chain. Perhaps that's a stay-home enthusiasm brought about by the horrendous death totals, which concentrate the mind wonderfully. Is it going to take proportionate deaths for the US to learn the obvious lessons too?
3. I'm surprised to learn, also, that you believe we don't have shopping malls, supermarkets, out-of-town hypermarkets etc. in the UK and the rest of Europe, and that your shopping options are so different to ours.
4. Not humour: admonishement for crass public behaviour in a time of an international life/death crisis.
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+1
+1,000,000
There is enough "other discussions" in the other thread, let's not bring it to this one.
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Here in Portugal it seems that the daily growth rate has decreased, and it's keeping at 9%. 3 weeks after closing schools, we are seeing the effect. Children have a stronger immune system, and they can infect other people without knowing. In Italy, seems that closing the schools and sending kids to stay with their grand parents was a disaster.
Here, the state of ermergency was prolonged for 2 more weeks. There is now talk of developing a blood test to see who is immune - they will be the first ones to go back to work, or back to school. Priority is to medical personnel, to avoid having say 50 people in isolation, and say 25 of them unnecessarily.
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I am working from home, and I envy my cat:) Just a picture to lighten the mood.
Stay safe everyone.
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2. Standard surgical masks worn for personal protection are probably almost totally ineffective. It's not what they were designed to do. Proper PPE is dramatically different.
Different yes, but only effective when used properly. And the effectiveness of surgical masks can be easily improved with a minor modification. But then they would need to be made available to the general public first. While in short supply, they should remain to be reserved for healtcare professionals.
3. Surgical masks worn in public to prevent spread by those infected to prevent spread are probably useful. It is wearing a mask for that purpose which you willfully refuse to do; as you have observed, those around you are wearing them, so you are relatively safe and it plainly doesn't concern you that you may unwittingly pass on infection to others while you are asymptomatic.
Assuming that the recommended guidelines are followed, i.e. stay at home if symptomatic and keep distance when meeting other people (who could be pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic, or plainly contagious) and wash hands regularly and don't touch your face, a mask, any mask will have very limited effect. In fact, it can make matters worse, because it can become a source of infection. Don't touch your mask, and wash hands/face when you do.
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Here in Portugal it seems that the daily growth rate has decreased, and it's keeping at 9%. 3 weeks after closing schools, we are seeing the effect. Children have a stronger immune system, and they can infect other people without knowing. In Italy, seems that closing the schools and sending kids to stay with their grand parents was a disaster.
Here, the state of ermergency was prolonged for 2 more weeks. There is now talk of developing a blood test to see who is immune - they will be the first ones to go back to work, or back to school. Priority is to medical personnel, to avoid having say 50 people in isolation, and say 25 of them unnecessarily.
Good to hear. Similar things happening in the Netherlands. The curve is flattening, but we are dangerously close to maxing out the (already expanded by more than a factor of 2) ICU capacity. So the flattening of the curve is very welcome, and has been the main strategy from the onset.
Something that is often overlooked, or so it seems, is that only increasing the number of ventilators is not enough. Personnel to operate the equipment and treat the patients in the ICU is also limited, and it would take too long to train more. So re-distribution of the patient load is also very important. Locations that were approaching their limits have sent patients to other locations, and we have very good contacts with Germany who have a much larger reserve of ICUs.
Our state of emergency has been prolonged to end of April, but is being updated weekly (or sooner if necessary).
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Germany has almost as many deaths as America on a per capita basis. We must be doing well too.
As of today, USA has 26 deaths per million, and Germany 17. There is a good chance that due to limited testing the USA infections are under reported.
When the testing in USA will ramp up, the absolute infection count will go up, and the relative death counts in both countries might look more similar.
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Pro & con:
https://www.ft.com/content/848c5b44-4d7a-11ea-95a0-43d18ec715f5?fbclid=IwAR2asrB66g5P56NAdz91ucpj57ygrJoroVYC8La4OlIwr1Sgr-3Q853NbJg
Switzerland halts rollout of 5G over health concerns
http://tapnewswire.com/2020/01/5g-rollout-postponed-in-slovenia/
SLOVENIA VOTES FOR LIFE, AT LEAST FOR NOW
Last Friday, while people in 250 cities were preparing for the first Global Day of Protest against 5G, Slovenia became the first country in the world to refuse 5G, at least temporarily, because of objections from scientists and the public. The Ministry of Public Administration had called a four-hour Public Consultation on Radiation Aspects in Ensuring the Operation of 5G Technologies.
https://www.bbc.com/news/52168096
Coronavirus: Scientists brand 5G claims 'complete rubbish'
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As of today, USA has 26 deaths per million, and Germany 17. There is a good chance that due to limited testing the USA infections are under reported.
When the testing in USA will ramp up, the absolute infection count will go up, and the relative death counts in both countries might look more similar.
Assuming that Germany doesn't increase testing ...
Germany told it needs to massively increase coronavirus testing
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/02/germany-told-it-needs-to-massively-increase-coronavirus-testing
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There seems to be a lot of hope that we will have a working vaccine for COVID-19 in the next 12/18 months. How so? After 40 years of research we still do not have a vaccine for AIDS. And no vaccine for SARS, MERS, EBOLA etc.
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Assuming that Germany doesn't increase testing ...
Germany told it needs to massively increase coronavirus testing
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/02/germany-told-it-needs-to-massively-increase-coronavirus-testing
Where does that leave Britain ... :)
on a lighter note, a humorous press analogy:
Whereas Britain is struggling to carry out 50,000 tests in a week, Germany sometimes does twice as many in a day. Or to put it in footballing terms – and we are talking about Germany, after all – they can test an entire FA Cup final crowd in the same time it takes the NHS to swab a home crowd at Peterborough United. (5,000)
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Coronavirus: Scientists brand 5G claims 'complete rubbish'
https://www.bbc.com/news/52168096
This one, slightly more than amusing :
One claims 5G can suppress the immune system, thus making people more susceptible to catching the virus.
The other suggests the virus can somehow be transmitted through the use of 5G technology.
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This one, slightly more than amusing :
One claims 5G can suppress the immune system, thus making people more susceptible to catching the virus.
The other suggests the virus can somehow be transmitted through the use of 5G technology.
Let's stay on topic, please. Conspiracy theories about 5G should go to another thread.
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Let's stay on topic, please. Conspiracy theories about 5G should go to another thread.
Bart,
I didn't need to put in a silly smiling yellow face to highlight how ridiculous the notion is ... did I?
That is what 'slightly more than amusing' implies!
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Bart,
I didn't need to put in a silly smiling yellow face to highlight how ridiculous the notion is ... did I?
That is what 'slightly more than amusing' implies!
No problem with that, but some (other) people can't resist to derail threads, so let's not feed them unnecessarily.
I do agree that some tension relief is useful, but the other thread (with lots of dark 'comedy') just got locked, so we need to be cautious with this thread.
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This is a layman's overview article about vaccine creation and production, a bit long but interesting, https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-vaccine-the-race-to-keep-millions-safe-from-covid-19-11968262 (https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-vaccine-the-race-to-keep-millions-safe-from-covid-19-11968262).
In a podcast about 4 weeks ago, Dr, Amesh Adalja (http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-people/adalja/ (http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-people/adalja/)) conjectured that it was more likely that immunity from C19 would resemble that of measles than of flu. That is, if you've had the disease, you are immune for a very long time, maybe for life, as we are with measles (with maybe a booster shot). I presume this is because the flu viruses (I assume there are more than one) mutate relatively rapidly but that this is not the case for C19. Does anyone know if that conjecture is true, even just plausible, or is it not possible to know yet?
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Kamma1, where (as in which region) of Lombardy are you ?
Como. I came back here from the UK 2 weeks ago.
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... but the other thread (with lots of dark 'comedy') just got locked, so we need to be cautious with this thread.
Hmmm, just noticed that.
As the OP, I am, of course, more than in agreement!
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Let's stay on topic, please. Conspiracy theories about 5G should go to another thread.
Don't be ridiculous, Bart! Did you you read the links? One theory is that 5G is linked to coronavirus, in the sense that it weakens immune system. At least two civilized states are looking into it (among other health concerns) and temporarily halting it. Also, remember the chart i posted pages ago which shows Switzerland as having the most registered cases per capita?
I am not saying the theory is true or not true. That is why I posted the opposing link at the same time. But it is worth noting that two civilized states are at least looking into it. There are so many things that the current state of science doesn't know for sure when it comes to coronavirus.
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Assuming that the recommended guidelines are followed, i.e. stay at home if symptomatic and keep distance when meeting other people (who could be pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic, or plainly contagious)...
Yes, but it's not just other people who could be pre- or a-symptomatic, so could you. And you don't have to cough or sneeze to shed it.
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As of today, USA has 26 deaths per million, and Germany 17. There is a good chance that due to limited testing the USA infections are under reported.
When the testing in USA will ramp up, the absolute infection count will go up, and the relative death counts in both countries might look more similar.
It's not clear to me how they decide who to test here in the US. They're just starting voluntary testing tomorrow in our county in New Jersey at the Motor Vehicle Bureau. If they work it like when you have to go there to take care of your car, we'll be standing on line for a week. I wonder if they'll be passing out masks?
MIDDLESEX COUNTY TESTING SITE: Schedule your appointment with Middlesex County Office of Health Services on SUNDAY, APRIL 5 beginning at 10:00 a.m. to make an appointment time for MONDAY, APRIL 6. Location: NJ MVC Kilmer Vehicle Inspection Center in Edison.
Here are the statistics of testing in New Jersey. It's meaningless without knowing who they're testing. It seems that they've only tested patients. The new local testing might be just people who want to be tested. But even that won't be a random test. If it's people suspected of having the disease, than it won't show what the infection rate is in the general public. I suspect we won't know the real rates until this whole thing is over.
NJ TESTING BY-THE-NUMBERS: As of Saturday, April 4,2020 a total of 75,336 patients tested in NJ. Of today’s number 7,853, there were 4,229 positives and 3,624 negatives. The overall test positivity: 45% and new test positivity is 54%. This positivity rate is still way too high.
How do they test in other countries?
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A task force to plan economic recovery in the US after this is over has been recommended. Here is an extract from the article. What are other countries doing to address this issue? America is throwing huge amounts of money at the problem? But there's no specific plan. There should be. How are business owners doing here?
"....according to a recent poll 24 percent of small business owners who have seen their shops closed by the nearly nationwide shutdown expect they will never be able to reopen for business.
What is required and what has been sorely lacking is an effort to balance the medical and economic impact of this crisis. In far too many cases those who even attempt to address the immediate and potentially generational harmful impact this crisis could have on American workers and businesses have been portrayed as heartless ghouls who only care about the stock market, not human lives. But this is not the case.
In fact, the myriad potential for disastrous effects that a second great depression could have on our nation are an emergency in their own right which requires just as much attention as the pandemic itself. Entire communities are poised to be plunged into a nightmare of joblessness, empty storefronts, addiction and even suicide if we do not find a way to get America back working soon..."
https://thefederalist.com/2020/04/04/we-need-a-white-house-task-force-on-reopening-the-economy/
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NJ TESTING BY-THE-NUMBERS: As of Saturday, April 4,2020 a total of 75,336 patients tested in NJ. Of today’s number 7,853, there were 4,229 positives and 3,624 negatives. The overall test positivity: 45% and new test positivity is 54%. This positivity rate is still way too high.
How do they test in other countries?
If they test primarily suspected C19 carriers, it is not surprising that the positivity rate is high. When they extend the testing to general population or random samples, the positivity rate should drop.
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Assuming that Germany doesn't increase testing ...
Germany told it needs to massively increase coronavirus testing
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/02/germany-told-it-needs-to-massively-increase-coronavirus-testing
The whole testing procedure is pretty much useless because it's not random. Without it, there's minimal way to tell the infection rate of the general public. Why isn't random testing going on?
From your linked article:
"...Kotsopoulos said Germany should be far more focused on who it tested, to ensure those “who don’t have symptoms but just want to know whether they have it or not” are not tested, in favour of those such as at-risk patients for whom it is considered a necessity. “It is simply not practically possible right now to test everyone in a population of our size,” he said.
According to the RKI’s guideline, priority should be given to testing medical workers, people with underlying health conditions showing coronavirus symptoms and those in contact with those who are infected, so as to be able to place them under quarantine..."
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Yes, but it's not just other people who could be pre- or a-symptomatic, so could you. And you don't have to cough or sneeze to shed it.
Correct, so I'm following the new directive for your region with interest. But while I hope it helps to improve things, I'm a bit sceptical unless some better research becomes available to prove me wrong.
Do the authorities in your region make these masks available for the general public?
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Let's stay on topic, please. Conspiracy theories about 5G should go to another thread.
Bart, Some foxhole humor in trying times is important. It helps lighten the load. In reminds us all we're not in charge. In any case, we're not scientists and this isn;t a scientific discourse at Harvard. We're all just a bunch of photographers dumping our thoughts, opinions and feelings. Lighten up.
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The whole testing procedure is pretty much useless because it's not random. Without it, there's minimal way to tell the infection rate of the general public. Why isn't random testing going on?
It has been stated many times that the tests are not available yet in large numbers so they probably can't do so at this time. Not in all countries yet anyway.
Presumably hospitals test so they know what to do with patients. The kind of random widespread testing you're referring to has a different purpose and will be done elsewhere than in hospitals, is my understanding.
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Don't be ridiculous, Bart! Did you you read the links? One theory is that 5G is linked to coronavirus, in the sense that it weakens immune system. At least two civilized states are looking into it (among other health concerns) and temporarily halting it. Also, remember the chart i posted pages ago which shows Switzerland as having the most registered cases per capita?
I am not saying the theory is true or not true. That is why I posted the opposing link at the same time. But it is worth noting that two civilized states are at least looking into it. There are so many things that the current state of science doesn't know for sure when it comes to coronavirus.
It could be an indirect effect of using phones. It is likely, that the 5G users are more prolific in using their phones for many hours during the day and night, and thus get less sleep and more stimulation through the screen. With less sleep, the immune system is compromised.
Reducing Sleep
Many of these activities may prompt a compulsive desire to continue refreshing, checking, responding, reading, scrolling, posting, clicking, or playing. It feels good and there is a limitless opportunity for additional stimulation. It may be tough to stop and put the device away. This alone may lead to a delay in bedtime and reduced total sleep time. This may contribute to sleep deprivation if the needed hours of sleep to feel rested are not obtained.1 The stimulation may make it hard to shut down and fall asleep. The mind may be overly excited or activated.
Light
In addition, the light from phone, tablet, or computer screens may impact the ability to fall asleep.1 Small amounts of artificial light from the screens may cause a delay in the circadian rhythm. This may be especially impactful on night owls with a naturally delayed sleep phase. If morning sunlight is not obtained to counteract these effects, insomnia and morning sleepiness may result.
https://www.verywellhealth.com/reasons-why-you-should-not-sleep-with-your-cell-phone-4140997
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Bart, Some foxhole humor in trying times is important. It helps lighten the load. In reminds us all we're not in charge. In any case, we're not scientists and this isn;t a scientific discourse at Harvard. We're all just a bunch of photographers dumping our thoughts, opinions and feelings. Lighten up.
I agree with the sentiment, but there is a humour thread and you can always start another thread about the lighter side or how people are coping. If this thread begins to have pages of back and forth, no matter how benign or entertaining, it will make it difficult to find the more informative bits or questions. I'm with Bart on this one.
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If they test primarily suspected C19 carriers, it is not surprising that the positivity rate is high. When they extend the testing to general population or random samples, the positivity rate should drop.
Exactly. So all the arguments of who's doing worse or better, especially when the numbers are close, have no meaning at this point. Everyone seems to be testing differently and at different test rates. Most testing is of patient or suspected patients. Nobody's knocked on my door to test me. Japan's basically stopped testing. Who really knows what China is doing? So there's no relationship among the various results. Arguing one country is doing better than the other is silly. It's like discussing which fighter has the most points in the 5th round of a 12 round fight.
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It has been stated many times that the tests are not available yet in large numbers so they probably can't do so at this time. Not in all countries yet anyway.
Presumably hospitals test so they know what to do with patients. The kind of random widespread testing you're referring to has a different purpose and will be done elsewhere than in hospitals, is my understanding.
But officials aren't making that clear. They keep talking about infection (and death) rates as if they're testing the general public. They're not. They're testing suspected infectees. So the statistics may be raising more fear than the real infection rate would cause.
If after this is all over, we're told that the real infection rate was a fraction of what they told us, there's going to be a lot of angry people and hell to pay. Did we shut down the economies of the world based on distorted statistics? Why didn't the powers to be tell us what the figures really meant? Why didn't they test differently? Did I lose my job unnecessarily and can't feed my family because of it. Heads will swing.
I'm not saying these deaths are not terrible. They are. But the impression is it's a lot worse than it may turn out to be could cause us to make policy decisions that are wrong.
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A task force to plan economic recovery in the US after this is over has been recommended. Here is an extract from the article. What are other countries doing to address this issue? America is throwing huge amounts of money at the problem? But there's no specific plan. There should be. How are business owners doing here?
"....according to a recent poll 24 percent of small business owners who have seen their shops closed by the nearly nationwide shutdown expect they will never be able to reopen for business.
What is required and what has been sorely lacking is an effort to balance the medical and economic impact of this crisis. In far too many cases those who even attempt to address the immediate and potentially generational harmful impact this crisis could have on American workers and businesses have been portrayed as heartless ghouls who only care about the stock market, not human lives. But this is not the case.
In fact, the myriad potential for disastrous effects that a second great depression could have on our nation are an emergency in their own right which requires just as much attention as the pandemic itself. Entire communities are poised to be plunged into a nightmare of joblessness, empty storefronts, addiction and even suicide if we do not find a way to get America back working soon..."
https://thefederalist.com/2020/04/04/we-need-a-white-house-task-force-on-reopening-the-economy/
Alan, this will get political pretty fast. Not something for this thread.
Each country will take the measures that are supposed to benefit the economy of that specific country. Different countries, different ways to optimize. What works for one, doesn't have to work for others. And some governments are more clever, or better prepared for financial/economical setbacks than others.
In general, it seems like a good idea to ramp up serum testing, i.e. determining the presence and amount of antibodies. Those who are (probably) immune to the virus, and are (probably) not contagious anymore, are the first to get back to work on the economy.
But there are still a number of issues with that.
1. The peak has not been reached yet, in almost any country.
2. With limited serum test capacity, healthcare workers need to get priority.
3. Once 1 and 2 are solved, there is still a risk of secondary contamination (touching contaminated surfaces and spreading it to new patients).
4. It is likely, but not yet proven, that people with anti-bodies are unable to get reinfected (and again contagious). The amount of antibodies may also play a role.
5. This is a new virus, so a lot is not yet fully understood, and we're learning as we go.
A daily newsflash was just issued in my country, 115 more dead people have been reported yesterday, but that's fewer than the day before. So the curve is flattening. But in the heaviest hit region, there was a sudden increase. So it is still a tricky situation that could grow worse if our attention weakens and people start breaking protocol too fast.
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It could be an indirect effect of using phones. It is likely, that the 5G users are more prolific in using their phones for many hours during the day and night, and thus get less sleep and more stimulation through the screen. With less sleep, the immune system is compromised.
https://www.verywellhealth.com/reasons-why-you-should-not-sleep-with-your-cell-phone-4140997
It's not 5G that's causing it. Rather it's photography forums keeping us up at night and weakening our immune systems. ::)
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I agree with the sentiment, but there is a humour thread and you can always start another thread about the lighter side or how people are coping. If this thread begins to have pages of back and forth, no matter how benign or entertaining, it will make it difficult to find the more informative bits or questions. I'm with Bart on this one.
I enjoy wry humor so I will keep doing it. Being able to laugh at oneself makes us human. In any case, some people like Canons and others like Nikons. Nothing personal.
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Alan, this will get political pretty fast. Not something for this thread.
Each country will take the measures that are supposed to benefit the economy of that specific country. Different countries, different ways to optimize. What works for one, doesn't have to work for others. And some governments are more clever, or better prepared for financial/economical setbacks than others.
In general, it seems like a good idea to ramp up serum testing, i.e. determining the presence and amount of antibodies. Those who are (probably) immune to the virus, and are (probably) not contagious anymore, are the first to get back to work on the economy.
But there are still a number of issues with that.
1. The peak has not been reached yet, in almost any country.
2. With limited serum test capacity, healthcare workers need to get priority.
3. Once 1 and 2 are solved, there is still a risk of secondary contamination (touching contaminated surfaces and spreading it to new patients).
4. It is likely, but not yet proven, that people with anti-bodies are unable to get reinfected (and again contagious). The amount of antibodies may also play a role.
5. This is a new virus, so a lot is not yet fully understood, and we're learning as we go.
A daily newsflash was just issued in my country, 115 more dead people have been reported yesterday, but that's fewer than the day before. So the curve is flattening. But in the heaviest hit region, there was a sudden increase. So it is still a tricky situation that could grow worse if our attention weakens and people start breaking protocol too fast.
There you go trying to shut people up who you disagree with what they're saying. Don't you ever stop? Then you go on to answer my points with a couple of hundred words of response. Make up your mind. Either my point is worthy of discussion or it isn't. If it isn;t then why respond with a treatise?
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But officials aren't making that clear. They keep talking about infection (and death) rates as if they're testing the general public.
Not in my country. They have been crystal clear and consistent in pointing out that different reporting streams are not in sync, and that increasing the numbers of tested people will change some outcomes in absolute ratios/numbers.
Scientists are, and have been totally transparent about that. Reproduction numbers were not available in the beginning, so all they had to go on was the Chinese input. As more information became available locally, the local numbers started to dominate the calculations, but always with the caveat that not everybody was being tested. However, there were also parallel systems of reporting available, and their results started to converge to the same numbers. Last week the Reproduction rate in my country was around 1.0 and the trend was going down. Mortalities lag by 2-5 weeks, because people first have to become ill, then some deteriorate and are hospitalized, and then some of those patients die.
This is all common knowledge, and as said, reporting is transparent (including the inaccuracies). Following the Scientific consensus benefits all, consistent information with few surprises, and a consistent approach going forward to manage the situation.
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Not in my country. They have been crystal clear and consistent in pointing out that different reporting streams are not in sync, and that increasing the numbers of tested people will change some outcomes in absolute ratios/numbers.
Scientists are, and have been totally transparent about that. Reproduction numbers were not available in the beginning, so all they had to go on was the Chinese input. As more information became available locally, the local numbers started to dominate the calculations, but always with the caveat that not everybody was being tested. However, there were also parallel systems of reporting available, and their results started to converge to the same numbers. Last week the Reproduction rate in my country was around 1.0 and the trend was going down. Mortalities lag by 2-5 weeks, because people first have to become ill, then some deteriorate and are hospitalized, and then some of those patients die.
This is all common knowledge, and as said, reporting is transparent (including the inaccuracies). Following the Scientific consensus benefits all, consistent information with few surprises, and a consistent approach going forward to manage the situation.
Well, that's good that it's being clarified. But if the final numbers show an infection rate a tenth of what's being published now, people won;t remember the qualifications the government gave. People will complain the government was feeding us bad information that made us react too strongly causing us to destroy our economy. So that's why am I out of a job. Because of government incompetence and lying.
This reminds me of the snow forecasts we get in the US all the time. Weathermen threaten huge amounts of snow too often never happens. I love it because no one is driving so I go out to drive in two inches of snow when there were suppose to be 12 inches. Same things with hurricanes and other disasters. Often, it seems that government has become too cautious. It may be an unfair assessment. But it's there. I suspect there's going to be a lot of recrimination about the economy when this is over. There's going to be hell to pay because of it.
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Let me add that in addition to bad statistics, many people have been saying that we should shut everything down; damn the economy. After the dead are buried, no one will remember them except their families. The rest of the people will be worried about their next meal. Memories are short. Those who demanded the shutdown are going to be blamed for a sinking economy. Leaders who wanted to go slow, are going to seem like the smart ones.
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There seems to be a lot of hope that we will have a working vaccine for COVID-19 in the next 12/18 months. How so? After 40 years of research we still do not have a vaccine for AIDS. And no vaccine for SARS, MERS, EBOLA etc.
Vaccine research is difficult and 'if' a vaccine is to be given to large numbers of people who are otherwise healthy, safety studies require a large clinical trial. It is not uncommon for new vaccines to be tested on more than 50,000 people to gauge if it is safe or not. The correct proteins must be chosen for the vaccine to make sure the body produces the right antibodies to the infectious agent. Some retroviruses such as HIV have proven to be recalcitrant to vaccine development. Since control of HIV is well known and "easy" to implement (practice safe sex), on 'might' question whether all the money and effort was well spent. There were vaccines developed for SARS but not pursued since it quickly disappeared. there are approved Ebola vaccines but their full efficacy is not known as outbreaks are sporadic. A number of vaccines were developed against Zika virus once that outbreak was documented. IMO, more should have been done to pre-test some new vaccine platform technologies so that we would not be doing first in human studies against SARS-CoV-2 right now as is being done.
Johnson & Johnson will be starting a large trial shortly of their vaccine and are building up manufacturing capacity to produce 1 billion doses a year. Other companies are stepping up to the plate as is the Gates Foundation.
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Don't be ridiculous, Bart! Did you you read the links? One theory is that 5G is linked to coronavirus, in the sense that it weakens immune system. At least two civilized states are looking into it (among other health concerns) and temporarily halting it. Also, remember the chart i posted pages ago which shows Switzerland as having the most registered cases per capita?
I am not saying the theory is true or not true. That is why I posted the opposing link at the same time. But it is worth noting that two civilized states are at least looking into it. There are so many things that the current state of science doesn't know for sure when it comes to coronavirus.
Let's debunk this once and for all. The advent of cell phones brought about a lot of conjecture about low energy radiation and it's impact on humans. All kinds of concerns were raised. However, when one looked at the data, there was no evidence at all for adverse health effects. The proximity of cell phones to one's brain, raised the weird concern about possible brain cancer. However, when one looked at the actual mortality data, there was a small decrease in brain cancer mortality and an enormous increase in cell phone usage.
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Vaccine research is difficult and 'if' a vaccine is to be given to large numbers of people who are otherwise healthy, safety studies require a large clinical trial. It is not uncommon for new vaccines to be tested on more than 50,000 people to gauge if it is safe or not. The correct proteins must be chosen for the vaccine to make sure the body produces the right antibodies to the infectious agent. Some retroviruses such as HIV have proven to be recalcitrant to vaccine development. Since control of HIV is well known and "easy" to implement (practice safe sex), on 'might' question whether all the money and effort was well spent. There were vaccines developed for SARS but not pursued since it quickly disappeared. there are approved Ebola vaccines but their full efficacy is not known as outbreaks are sporadic. A number of vaccines were developed against Zika virus once that outbreak was documented. IMO, more should have been done to pre-test some new vaccine platform technologies so that we would not be doing first in human studies against SARS-CoV-2 right now as is being done.
Johnson & Johnson will be starting a large trial shortly of their vaccine and are building up manufacturing capacity to produce 1 billion doses a year. Other companies are stepping up to the plate as is the Gates Foundation.
Is the coronavirus similar to these? Do they expect the coronavirus to mutate annually causing additional problems next year like recurrent seasonal flu?
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Let's debunk this once and for all. The advent of cell phones brought about a lot of conjecture about low energy radiation and it's impact on humans. All kinds of concerns were raised. However, when one looked at the data, there was no evidence at all for adverse health effects. The proximity of cell phones to one's brain, raised the weird concern about possible brain cancer. However, when one looked at the actual mortality data, there was a small decrease in brain cancer mortality and an enormous increase in cell phone usage.
It may not hurt my brain. But every time I put it within a foot of my desktop keyboard, I get static on the computer's speakers. It would be nice instead of the noise I hear, it would say something meaningful. Like, Buy Apple, or Sell Exxon.
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The whole testing procedure is pretty much useless because it's not random. Without it, there's minimal way to tell the infection rate of the general public. Why isn't random testing going on?
There are not enough genetic tests. Abbott Labs got approval recently for their quick ID test that runs on a small analyzer. However, they have only shipped 5500 cassettes as of the end of last week and are projecting 50,000 kits per week being shipped. there are 18,000 analyzers deployed in the US (this is commonly used for strep tests and other quick diagnostic stuff). You can do the math and see how few kits there are for each analyzer. Abbott are one of the biggest diagnostic test companies in the world. The absence of a large scale deployable blood test is also a problem. there are over 50 such tests developed overseas that have been registered with the FDA. These are self-validated by the company and not by the FDA. Only one test has been reviewed and given emergency approval by the FDA. The type of research needed to validate these tests so that they are accurate is not hard once the right reagents are available. Labs in the US and The Netherlands have already outlined approaches (there may be more but those are the two papers I've read). This is the type of project that needs to be undertaken ASAP so that tests can be manufactured at scale and deployed. The US policy folks are again letting us down.
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Is the coronavirus similar to these? Do they expect the coronavirus to mutate annually causing additional problems next year like recurrent seasonal flu?
Every virus and bacteria disease require its own vaccine. Right now there is no evidence of mutation in the major surface proteins of the virus have mutated so a vaccine should work. Seasonal flu vaccines mutate because it can be hosted in animals other than humans which is conducive to genetic changes.
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Is the coronavirus similar to these? Do they expect the coronavirus to mutate annually causing additional problems next year like recurrent seasonal flu?
In all likelihood, yes similar, and yes it mutates (but there is no experience yet how much).
But when a large portion of the population has developed antibodies (group immunization), there will be fewer infections and those who do get infected will probably be hit less hard. A vaccine will probably not become available in adequate quantities in time. Johnson & Johnson are close to having a vaccine in January 2021 (but there's a 90% chance they may fail, there are no tests done on humans yet), two months after the vaccinations for the regular flu season.
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I enjoy wry humor so I will keep doing it.
Not in this thread.
13 posts in 2 hours, coming hard on your >100 posts in 24 hours in the now, thankfully, closed thread. This is a forum not a chat room. You wanna chat ? go on Facebook or Messenger. Don't swamp the content, particularly as you habitually ignore the subject under discussion and wander off on your own myopic agenda.
Engage constructively and all will be well.
You wanna do your Trumpette bit ? open another thread, pretty please.
Edit:
... there is a humour thread and you can always start another thread about the lighter side or how people are coping. If this thread begins to have pages of back and forth, no matter how benign or entertaining, it will make it difficult to find the more informative bits or questions.
This ^^ 10 times over.
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In all likelihood, yes similar, and yes it mutates (but there is no experience yet how much).
But when a large portion of the population has developed antibodies (group immunization), there will be fewer infections and those who do get infected will probably be hit less hard. A vaccine will probably not become available in adequate quantities in time. Johnson & Johnson are close to having a vaccine in January 2021 (but there's a 90% chance they may fail, there are no tests done on humans yet), two months after the vaccinations for the regular flu season.
I think this is too pessimistic. Unlike HIV, these types of viral infections are susceptible to a vaccine approach. There is a UK group that is looking at a similar approach and they developed a MERS vaccine several years ago that elicited a strong immune response.
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I think this is too pessimistic. Unlike HIV, these types of viral infections are susceptible to a vaccine approach. There is a UK group that is looking at a similar approach and they developed a MERS vaccine several years ago that elicited a strong immune response.
I was quoting what the Dutch lead scientist at J&J was telling in the interview I mentioned here (https://forum.luminous-landscape.com/index.php?topic=134416.msg1161200#msg1161200). She explained that they have developed a special method of modifying a 'regular' flu virus in small amounts, which leads to finding good candidates. But as she said, 10% of the attempts leads to further testing, 90% fails. And then there is the issue of human testing. Vaccination involves introducing antibodies in healthy people. It takes a lot of testing to make sure that these people do not develop issues that they would otherwise have not.
But hey, we only need 1 successful basic vaccine.
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As of today, USA has 26 deaths per million, and Germany 17. There is a good chance that due to limited testing the USA infections are under reported.
When the testing in USA will ramp up, the absolute infection count will go up, and the relative death counts in both countries might look more similar.
First, I don’t think this is the best way to look at the data. Maybe one country got hit with a lot more initial exposure than the other. Based on the article posted Germany is testing a lot for quite a while, they had a working test even before Italy got hit. US is likely behind Germany, we have yet to see the worse. I mean the east side of Michigan is swamped, we have yet to get hit anywhere close to them on the west side.
Second, and this is what caught my interest, their ICU mortality looked better than others. If you are on a vent in the ICU, the reported mortality is somewhere in 50-80% range, quite bad.
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I was quoting what the Dutch lead scientist at J&J was telling in the interview I mentioned here (https://forum.luminous-landscape.com/index.php?topic=134416.msg1161200#msg1161200). She explained that they have developed a special method of modifying a 'regular' flu virus in small amounts, which leads to finding good candidates. But as she said, 10% of the attempts leads to further testing, 90% fails. And then there is the issue of human testing. Vaccination involves introducing antibodies in healthy people. It takes a lot of testing to make sure that these people do not develop issues that they would otherwise have not.
But hey, we only need 1 successful basic vaccine.
I watched a YouTube video of an interview with the Dr leading the Covid response in South Korea. One of the final questions was how long until everyone gets a vaccine for Covid 19. I was expected no him to say about 18 months instead he said based on how long it took roll out a vaccine for smallpox and eradicate that disease we should get it done by 2035. I was stunned.
Other thing he said was everyone should wear a mask. He said the evidence was clear, everyone at all times. The interview left me quite miserable to be honest.
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I watched a YouTube video of an interview with the Dr leading the Covid response in South Korea. One of the final questions was how long until everyone gets a vaccine for Covid 19. I was expected no him to say about 18 months instead he said based on how long it took roll out a vaccine for smallpox and eradicate that disease we should get it done by 2035. I was stunned.
Other thing he said was everyone should wear a mask. He said the evidence was clear, everyone at all times. The interview left me quite miserable to be honest.
That seems overly cautious. There may be some information that got lost in translation, also regarding the wearing of masks. They almost always use masks, so they don't have as much experience with social distancing without. Just guessing. Things may differ in different contexts.
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There are not enough genetic tests. Abbott Labs got approval recently for their quick ID test that runs on a small analyzer. However, they have only shipped 5500 cassettes as of the end of last week and are projecting 50,000 kits per week being shipped. there are 18,000 analyzers deployed in the US (this is commonly used for strep tests and other quick diagnostic stuff). You can do the math and see how few kits there are for each analyzer. Abbott are one of the biggest diagnostic test companies in the world. The absence of a large scale deployable blood test is also a problem. there are over 50 such tests developed overseas that have been registered with the FDA. These are self-validated by the company and not by the FDA. Only one test has been reviewed and given emergency approval by the FDA. The type of research needed to validate these tests so that they are accurate is not hard once the right reagents are available. Labs in the US and The Netherlands have already outlined approaches (there may be more but those are the two papers I've read). This is the type of project that needs to be undertaken ASAP so that tests can be manufactured at scale and deployed. The US policy folks are again letting us down.
So it's the FDA folks that are letting us down. Why? With 50 tests registered, why have they only approved one recently because of the virus? What have they been doing for the last decade? Please don't blame Trump. It seems the FDA procedures may be too stringent or non-existent considering they approved none of the 50 registered tests but one, and only did that as an emergency because of the virus. Why are they dragging their heels?
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Every virus and bacteria disease require its own vaccine. Right now there is no evidence of mutation in the major surface proteins of the virus have mutated so a vaccine should work. Seasonal flu vaccines mutate because it can be hosted in animals other than humans which is conducive to genetic changes.
So the Asian flu comes from animals like the Corid-19 virus? Which animals?
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No problem with that, but some (other) people can't resist to derail threads, so let's not feed them unnecessarily.
I do agree that some tension relief is useful, but the other thread (with lots of dark 'comedy') just got locked, so we need to be cautious with this thread.
No, I believe it got locked because it disintegrated into mindless superhero grandstanding and equally frustrating circular arguments from people unable to retain anything in their heads for even two posts in a row.
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In all likelihood, yes similar, and yes it mutates (but there is no experience yet how much).
But when a large portion of the population has developed antibodies (group immunization), there will be fewer infections and those who do get infected will probably be hit less hard. A vaccine will probably not become available in adequate quantities in time. Johnson & Johnson are close to having a vaccine in January 2021 (but there's a 90% chance they may fail, there are no tests done on humans yet), two months after the vaccinations for the regular flu season.
So you and Alan G disagree on whether it mutates. Do the experts disagree too? Should us laymen trust anything anyone tells us?
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Not in this thread.
13 posts in 2 hours, coming hard on your >100 posts in 24 hours in the now, thankfully, closed thread. This is a forum not a chat room. You wanna chat ? go on Facebook or Messenger. Don't swamp the content, particularly as you habitually ignore the subject under discussion and wander off on your own myopic agenda.
Engage constructively and all will be well.
You wanna do your Trumpette bit ? open another thread, pretty please.
Edit:
This ^^ 10 times over.
You don't have the authority to monitor my posts. In any case, maybe you should get a sense of humor. It would keep you healthier in this time of stress.
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First, I don’t think this is the best way to look at the data. Maybe one country got hit with a lot more initial exposure than the other. Based on the article posted Germany is testing a lot for quite a while, they had a working test even before Italy got hit. US is likely behind Germany, we have yet to see the worse. I mean the east side of Michigan is swamped, we have yet to get hit anywhere close to them on the west side.
Second, and this is what caught my interest, their ICU mortality looked better than others. If you are on a vent in the ICU, the reported mortality is somewhere in 50-80% range, quite bad.
Without knowing when the patients were brought into the ICU, the figures don't necessarily mean anything. Earlier admission to hospitals may save more lives. People who wait too long to go to the hospital are in dire shape by that time and more likely to die. You'd have to study how cases were handled to prove your theory.
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So you and Alan G disagree on whether it mutates. Do the experts disagree too? Should us laymen trust anything anyone tells us?
Please stop this moronic baiting. Some viruses mutate quickly, some don't. The data is not in yet so no one really knows for sure right at this moment. How many times do people have to repeat this? Why do you keep asking the same questions?
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No, I believe it got locked because it disintegrated into mindless superhero grandstanding and equally frustrating circular arguments from people unable to retain anything in their heads for even two posts in a row.
Frankly, it should have been allowed to go on. After all, one of the Trump threads went on for over 100 pages before it was shut down. And that had even more vituperation, nonsense, grandstanding, and repetition. :)
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So it's the FDA folks that are letting us down. Why? With 50 tests registered, why have they only approved one recently because of the virus? What have they been doing for the last decade? Please don't blame Trump. It seems the FDA procedures may be too stringent or non-existent considering they approved none of the 50 registered tests but one, and only did that as an emergency because of the virus. Why are they dragging their heels?
Why are you jumping to the conclusion that someone is letting you down? These are recent developments and the pipeline for verification may be full.
Are you deliberately trying to derail this thread too? What is your purpose?
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You don't have the authority to monitor my posts.
I don't need ‘authority’ , I learnt to count past 100 at school.
You want to ignore polite requests not to destroy threads and persist in abject self-centredness, do it in your own thread.
I’m locking this thread for 24 hours , should give you time to cool your heels and be more considerate to others.
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Good morning Manoli. Hope you slept well? I did. Here's something unusual but related to the topic.
As if NYC doesn;t have enough problems:
TIGER tests positive for Covid-19 as 6 more big cats develop ‘dry cough’ at Bronx Zoo
https://www.rt.com/usa/485042-tiger-coronavirus-bronx-zoo/
Here's an interesting concept. That the virus developed in a Amur Tiger, a species I believe is wild in China. It spread to humans in China who aren't immune but not to dogs and other animals. So naturally, when exposed to the disease, a healthy Amur tiger, the one in the zoo, would likely get infected. So what is similar about humans and Amur tigers? This could help find an antidote to the disease.
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So the Asian flu comes from animals like the Corid-19 virus? Which animals?
For seasonal flu, mallards.
Regards,
Dale
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For seasonal flu, mallards.
Regards,
Dale
I forgot I asked that question of which animal the virus came from. So now it seems, Covid-19 may have come from the tiger family, maybe the cat family. What genetic components are similar between us and them? It could help isolate an antidote or serum to inoculate humans.
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Without knowing when the patients were brought into the ICU, the figures don't necessarily mean anything. Earlier admission to hospitals may save more lives. People who wait too long to go to the hospital are in dire shape by that time and more likely to die. You'd have to study how cases were handled to prove your theory.
For the last time, read the links provided. I know how the early admission vs late admission works, no need to explain this.
I forgot I asked that question of which animal the virus came from. So now it seems, Covid-19 may have come from the tiger family, maybe the cat family. What genetic components are similar between us and them? It could help isolate an antidote or serum to inoculate humans.
No, it doesn't. Right now it only means it could be transmitted to felines.
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It has been stated many times that the tests are not available yet in large numbers so they probably can't do so at this time. Not in all countries yet anyway.
Presumably hospitals test so they know what to do with patients. The kind of random widespread testing you're referring to has a different purpose and will be done elsewhere than in hospitals, is my understanding.
Indeed. Here in Portugal, and I suspect other countries, when we had H1N1 epidemics in 2009, only many months later were the final numbers known: about 160,000 infected, and about 150 dead.
Right now, at least in my country, it is not possible to implement massive testing - there are not enough resources to do so. The current bottleneck is the laboratory processing capability, that sits far below the number of daily samples sent in to them.
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I forgot I asked that question of which animal the virus came from. So now it seems, Covid-19 may have come from the tiger family, maybe the cat family. What genetic components are similar between us and them? It could help isolate an antidote or serum to inoculate humans.
Alan, you need to stay focused on the relation of 5G to the coronavirus. Tigers are just a distraction.h
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But officials aren't making that clear. They keep talking about infection (and death) rates as if they're testing the general public. They're not. They're testing suspected infectees. So the statistics may be raising more fear than the real infection rate would cause.
If after this is all over, we're told that the real infection rate was a fraction of what they told us, there's going to be a lot of angry people and hell to pay. Did we shut down the economies of the world based on distorted statistics? Why didn't the powers to be tell us what the figures really meant? Why didn't they test differently? Did I lose my job unnecessarily and can't feed my family because of it. Heads will swing.
I'm not saying these deaths are not terrible. They are. But the impression is it's a lot worse than it may turn out to be could cause us to make policy decisions that are wrong.
You are correct that once a lot more of the population is testec, the death rate will be lower than now. That is expected, and well exemplified by previous epidemics and pandemics. However, the infection rate of SARS-COV-2 is already well established, 1 individual will infect between 2 and 3. This is double the seasonal flu.
And here in lies the issue: even if the mortality rate turns out to be lower than now (once more people get tested), it seems that it will be above the mortality rate of previous coronavirus infections, especially above 70 years old or so. Right now, in Portugal, average mortality rate is 2.6%, and above 70 is 9%. Even if these figures are reduced by halfonce alot more people are tested, they are still many times above the seasonal flu, for instance.
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Still on current numbers for death rate, as of today:
1.In Spain, 10 out of 100 infected have died.
2. In Italy, 12 out of 100 infected have died.
3. In Germany, which is the 4th country in number of confirmed cases, death rate is at 1.5%.
The above numbers give a good range for death rates as per the sampled population today. Of course, when a larger portion of the population is sampled, death rate will go down - but even if in the end it goes down to 0.5% or 1%, that is still several orders of magnitude higher than seasonal flu.
Wordlwide, with roughly 1,000,000 cases and 80,000 deaths, detah rate is 8%. Clearly, the death rate of this thing will end up being higher than others.
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Still on current numbers for death rate, as of today:
1.In Spain, 10 out of 100 infected have died.
2. In Italy, 12 out of 100 infected have died.
3. In Germany, which is the 4th country in number of confirmed cases, death rate is at 1.5%.
The above numbers give a good range for death rates as per the sampled population today. Of course, when a larger portion of the population is sampled, death rate will go down - but even if in the end it goes down to 0.5% or 1%, that is still several orders of magnitude higher than seasonal flu.
Wordlwide, with roughly 1,000,000 cases and 80,000 deaths, detah rate is 8%. Clearly, the death rate of this thing will end up being higher than others.
...and the point is?
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...and the point is?
Clearly stated in his last sentence.
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...and the point is?
That would be better if you stick to the other thread
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I forgot I asked that question of which animal the virus came from. So now it seems, Covid-19 may have come from the tiger family, maybe the cat family. What genetic components are similar between us and them? It could help isolate an antidote or serum to inoculate humans.
Can a tiger get infected by eating a sick man?
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Good morning Manoli. Hope you slept well? I did. Here's something unusual but related to the topic.
As if NYC doesn;t have enough problems:
TIGER tests positive for Covid-19 as 6 more big cats develop ‘dry cough’ at Bronx Zoo
https://www.rt.com/usa/485042-tiger-coronavirus-bronx-zoo/
Here's an interesting concept. That the virus developed in a Amur Tiger, a species I believe is wild in China. It spread to humans in China who aren't immune but not to dogs and other animals. So naturally, when exposed to the disease, a healthy Amur tiger, the one in the zoo, would likely get infected. So what is similar about humans and Amur tigers? This could help find an antidote to the disease.
There is already a paper from China documenting SARS-CoV-2 virus in common cats. It's not known what the relevance this is as cats can get infected by a variety of coronaviruses. I have not seen any papers documenting cat to human transmission.
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So you and Alan G disagree on whether it mutates. Do the experts disagree too? Should us laymen trust anything anyone tells us?
Of course you shouldn't trust anything the experts tell you. What do they know? This whole social distancing and masks thing is bollocks. For example, yesterday afternoon I rounded up our church youth group, and we all piled into vans to visit local nursing homes. You know residents in nursing homes are lonely and really look forward to having visitors. You should have seen their eyes light up when we walked in.
By the way, you mentioned earlier that you were diabetic. I sure hope you haven't fallen for that whole insulin thing. What a scam. That's just big pharma ripping you off. And you really didn't need that triple bypass. The doctor just had college tuition payments due for his two sons. Treating acid reflux as a heart attack is the oldest trick in the book.
The best thing you can do is ignore expert advice and go with your gut.
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Hopefully our resident scientists won't accuse me of "derailing the thread," as it is related to 1. photography 2. Coronavirus (and other):
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Clearly stated in his last sentence.
That's not a point. It's a statement of fact. Why is he telling this to us?
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That's not a point. It's a statement of fact. Why is he telling this to us?
Because you made this big statement about heads will swing if the rate at the end does not materialize as being theoried today. Paul gave you the stats of today which show magnitude higher rate than the common flu. Given that Covid spreads faster than the common flu and we have no vaccines...today our best bet is to isolate and distance ourselves.
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Hopefully our resident scientists won't accuse me of "derailing the thread," as it is related to 1. photography 2. Coronavirus (and other):
As far as I recall there have been silver ion paints on the market for a while.
Some data: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5470207/
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Hopefully our resident scientists won't accuse me of "derailing the thread," as it is related to 1. photography 2. Coronavirus (and other):
Silver has long been used for its antimicrobial properties: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medical_uses_of_silver It's used for water purification on the space station.
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Hopefully our resident scientists won't accuse me of "derailing the thread," as it is related to 1. photography 2. Coronavirus (and other):
I admittedly have no relevant expertise, but a quick web search turned up a report commissioned by the manufacturer (https://www.duraluxepanels.com/antimicrobial-test) which suggests that this stuff inhibits bacterial growth, not viruses.
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I admittedly have no relevant expertise, but a quick web search turned up a report commissioned by the manufacturer (https://www.duraluxepanels.com/antimicrobial-test) which suggests that this stuff inhibits bacterial growth, not viruses.
Samsung used to put Silver Ion in their washing machines, like maybe 2006 or so. Don't know if they stiil do.
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Because you made this big statement about heads will swing if the rate at the end does not materialize as being theoried today. Paul gave you the stats of today which show magnitude higher rate than the common flu. Given that Covid spreads faster than the common flu and we have no vaccines...today our best bet is to isolate and distance ourselves.
Higher rate doesn;t mean anything. There were 500,000 deaths from the common flu. Currently there are 71,000 deaths from Covid 19. That's about 1/7TH. Let's say the final Covid results are the same - 500,000. Young people who have lost the jobs and still aren't working 3 months from now are going to ask why the economy was destroyed, why are they not working? Who's thinking about them? They're not going to care about old farts like me.
I'm not saying they're acting reasonable. What I'm asking is how policy makers are going to respond? Will they tell them they have to suck it up? Will they just print a lot more money and bankrupt the entire country?
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Higher rate doesn;t mean anything. There were 500,000 deaths from the common flu. Currently there are 71,000 deaths from Covid 19. That's about 1/7TH. Let's say the final Covid results are the same - 500,000. Young people who have lost the jobs and still aren't working 3 months from now are going to ask why the economy was destroyed, why are they not working? Who's thinking about them? They're not going to care about old farts like me.
I'm not saying they're acting reasonable. What I'm asking is how policy makers are going to respond? Will they tell them they have to suck it up? Will they just print a lot more money and bankrupt the entire country?
But what if the death count if we just went about business as usual would be in the millions or tens of millions. At what point does a death equal a dollar? I know where I stand...economy comes back...when you are dead...you are dead.
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Higher rate doesn;t mean anything. There were 500,000 deaths from the common flu. Currently there are 71,000 deaths from Covid 19. That's about 1/7TH. Let's say the final Covid results are the same - 500,000. Young people who have lost the jobs and still aren't working 3 months from now are going to ask why the economy was destroyed, why are they not working? Who's thinking about them? They're not going to care about old farts like me.
I'm not saying they're acting reasonable. What I'm asking is how policy makers are going to respond? Will they tell them they have to suck it up? Will they just print a lot more money and bankrupt the entire country?
Between the time you looked at the stats and now, another 3,000 people died. Today's count - 1,250 in USA, 5200 worldwide.
At this rate by the year end, there will be 1.5 million deaths worldwide. If the infection rate can't be slowed down, the total damage will be much greater.
You are right, the governments are spending now money which they don't have, the tax revenue has fallen drastically, and will continue to fall for longer than they anticipate.
So they will print more money. Much more money. In USA and everywhere else, except Antarctica which should do well.
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Between the time you looked at the stats and now, another 3,000 people died. Today's count - 1,250 in USA, 5200 worldwide.
At this rate by the year end, there will be 1.5 million deaths worldwide. If the infection rate can't be slowed down, the total damage will be much greater.
You are right, the governments are spending now money which they don't have, the tax revenue has fallen drastically, and will continue to fall for longer than they anticipate.
So they will print more money. Much more money. In USA and everywhere else, except Antarctica which should do well.
You're right. It could be terrible. My point is though that if it isn't that bad, for whatever the reason, people who had their lives turned upside down may be furious. They'll be demands for more and more personal bailouts which no one can afford. Except China. And Antarctica.
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You're right. It could be terrible. My point is though that if it isn't that bad, for whatever the reason, people who had their lives turned upside down may be furious. They'll be demands for more and more personal bailouts which no one can afford. Except China. And Antarctica.
Rather than being furious...they should be grateful. So if the US doesn't lose 100,000 people to the virus...people will be pissed off? Man...that's ass backwards way of thinking. Very selfish thoughts.
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Rather than being furious...they should be grateful. So if the US doesn't lose 100,000 people to the virus...people will be pissed off? Man...that's ass backwards way of thinking. Very selfish thoughts.
If the government said today that they're taking away everyone's car and forcing people to take public transportation in order to save 30,000 lives annually due to auto accidents, most people would be furious, even those who may have lost family members in accidents. So asking them to give up their livelihood and let their families starve and calling them selfish just isn't fair and reasonable. Only the independently wealthy can be self-righteous and claim unselfishness.
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If the government said today that they're taking away everyone's car and forcing people to take public transportation in order to save 30,000 lives annually due to auto accidents, most people would be furious, even those who may have lost family members in accidents. So asking them to give up their livelihood and let their families starve and calling them selfish just isn't fair and reasonable. Only the independently wealthy can be self-righteous and claim unselfishness.
Good point, but this is only half true.
Even if some workers are anxious to return to their jobs, many of those companies, such as restaurants, hotels, airlines are closed because their services are not needed. Not now, and sadly even for the foreseeable future the service businesses won't come back in the same way as before the crisis.
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Isn't this the non-political thread?
An article in the Corriere della Sera focuses on a tv presenter who still tests positive a month after his first test, and weeks after symptoms subsided. Doctors cited in the article refer to similar cases. So the advice that it's ok to resume normal life after 14 days (does the UK still say 7 days?) have passed from symptoms is, at least in some cases, incorrect.
https://www.corriere.it/cronache/20_aprile_06/coronavirus-iena-politi-da-30-giorni-positivo-l-infettivologo-galli-diversi-casiora-serve-approfondire-30e72946-77f1-11ea-98b9-85d4a42f03ea.shtml
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Potentially a life saving tip on how to fight the virus:
https://www.cnn.com/videos/media/2020/04/07/closing-argument-secret-kicking-coronavirus-chris-cuomo-cpt-vpx.cnn
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Can a tiger get infected by eating a sick man?
I think the opposite happened in China.
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There is already a paper from China documenting SARS-CoV-2 virus in common cats. It's not known what the relevance this is as cats can get infected by a variety of coronaviruses. I have not seen any papers documenting cat to human transmission.
But it's been said that a CHinese got the virus by eating some animal. COuld that have been a tiger or from the cat family? What's genetically common between humans and cats but not other mammals? I emailed a director at the NIH working for Fauci to ask him this question and give him the news about the tiger. He responded by saying: thanks, OK. I hope they look into it.
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Of course you shouldn't trust anything the experts tell you. What do they know? This whole social distancing and masks thing is bollocks. For example, yesterday afternoon I rounded up our church youth group, and we all piled into vans to visit local nursing homes. You know residents in nursing homes are lonely and really look forward to having visitors. You should have seen their eyes light up when we walked in.
By the way, you mentioned earlier that you were diabetic. I sure hope you haven't fallen for that whole insulin thing. What a scam. That's just big pharma ripping you off. And you really didn't need that triple bypass. The doctor just had college tuition payments due for his two sons. Treating acid reflux as a heart attack is the oldest trick in the book.
The best thing you can do is ignore expert advice and go with your gut.
Nobody should follow a doctor's advice blindly. One has to use some discernment.
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But it's been said that a CHinese got the virus by eating some animal. COuld that have been a tiger or from the cat family? What's genetically common between humans and cats but not other mammals? I emailed a director at the NIH working for Fauci to ask him this question and give him the news about the tiger. He responded by saying: thanks, OK. I hope they look into it.
Three more tigers and three lions there were diagnosed with dry cough. They are all on medications now and seem to be on the mend.
Officials believe this is a unique case because Nadia, the Malayan tiger became sick after exposure to an asymptomatic zoo employee. Calle said the zoo did not know which employee infected the tiger.
“There have been some test results in dogs and cats, but they were either healthy or it wasn’t clear that COVID was the cause of the illness,” Calle said.
The first tiger at the zoo, which has been shut since mid-March, began showing signs of illness on March 27, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Veterinary Services Laboratories, which performed the test.
The virus that causes COVID-19 is believed to have spread from animals to humans, and a handful of animals have tested positive in Hong Kong.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-zoo/tiger-with-covid-19-gets-meds-tlc-from-new-yorks-bronx-zoo-keepers-idUSKBN21O2Y2
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Higher rate doesn;t mean anything. There were 500,000 deaths from the common flu. Currently there are 71,000 deaths from Covid 19. That's about 1/7TH. Let's say the final Covid results are the same - 500,000. Young people who have lost the jobs and still aren't working 3 months from now are going to ask why the economy was destroyed, why are they not working? Who's thinking about them? They're not going to care about old farts like me.
I'm not saying they're acting reasonable. What I'm asking is how policy makers are going to respond? Will they tell them they have to suck it up? Will they just print a lot more money and bankrupt the entire country?
Each country is taking different measures to face the health crisis and the ensuing economic crisis. EU moves at a slower pace, but something will be done to cater for the economy of the affected countries. In Portugal, where the large part of the economic structure is made of small companies, the problem is a short one - there is no money to pay salaries because there is no income. So the gov. has implemented a program of lay off, people go home temporarily and receive 2/3 of their monthly salary. Credit lines have also been opened to keep companies afloat. At the end of the day, the EU will have to come up with a concerted approach, otherwise it will be deemed as useless.
So yes, unemployment will go up, country debts will go up (Portugal's debt is 120% of GIP), but we will survive. I think it will be become clear in the coming weeks how policy makers will react, but the signs are out already. As for young people, they will survive too and adapt. Right now, I see a lot of young people who can not mourn their dead family members.
IMO, health comes first, and the economic balance will fall in naturally after that.
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Of course, China stands to gain as they're the only people who save. Plus they make cheap goods that we still need. Maybe they started the virus to create this mess and help them pass America.
That sentiment is not only spectacularly asinine, it has no place in this thread. Final warning, Alan.
Jeremy
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N95 and surgical masks do not seem to be very effective against COVID-19, some tests indicate. Counterintuitively there are more COVID-19 traces found outside the mask than inside after an infected patient sneezes.
https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2764367/effectiveness-surgical-cotton-masks-blocking-sars-cov-2-controlled-comparison?fbclid=IwAR2PmbMBLkJflQI9jUwpBg6rgNQSy7Kw3CeoMjqaK5BP2imK9vYSfig6Lyc
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Here's some good news about "curve flattening" in British Columbia on Canada's west coast, https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-ontario-quebec-covid-19-1.5524056 (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-ontario-quebec-covid-19-1.5524056). It's an analysis of what went right. It was interesting to read about their public health planning. With all the shouting, we don't get to hear about how things can be done right, too boring I guess. Public health is really quite different than what we normally think of as medical care. The doctor-patient relationship is a one on one interaction but public health is a public commons arena, requires a different mind set.
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Thank you, Slobodan for posting the link to the interesting article.
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Here is an interesting Mythbusters video about how easy it is to spread virus on droplets -
https://youtu.be/3wPKBpk7wUY
and how to slow a sneeze dispersion -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3vw0hIs2LEg
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Three more tigers and three lions there were diagnosed with dry cough. They are all on medications now and seem to be on the mend.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-zoo/tiger-with-covid-19-gets-meds-tlc-from-new-yorks-bronx-zoo-keepers-idUSKBN21O2Y2
Maybe Fauci should try catnip to see if it's effective.
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Each country is taking different measures to face the health crisis and the ensuing economic crisis. EU moves at a slower pace, but something will be done to cater for the economy of the affected countries. In Portugal, where the large part of the economic structure is made of small companies, the problem is a short one - there is no money to pay salaries because there is no income. So the gov. has implemented a program of lay off, people go home temporarily and receive 2/3 of their monthly salary. Credit lines have also been opened to keep companies afloat. At the end of the day, the EU will have to come up with a concerted approach, otherwise it will be deemed as useless.
So yes, unemployment will go up, country debts will go up (Portugal's debt is 120% of GIP), but we will survive. I think it will be become clear in the coming weeks how policy makers will react, but the signs are out already. As for young people, they will survive too and adapt. Right now, I see a lot of young people who can not mourn their dead family members.
IMO, health comes first, and the economic balance will fall in naturally after that.
Where does the broke Portugal treasury get the money to pay out-of-work people while it's waiting for the EU money? It can't print it like America. Where does the EU get the money from? Are the rich nations in the EU going to bail everyone out again? What will this do to the EU? Will they follow GB a la Brexit? Is anyone in Europe thinking this through?
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Maybe Fauci should try catnip to see if it's effective.
Or they should tell the Zoo employees to wear the masks and not to sneeze when they are less than 6 ft from the tigers.
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N95 and surgical masks do not seem to be very effective against COVID-19, some tests indicate. Counterintuitively there are more COVID-19 traces found outside the mask than inside after an infected patient sneezes.
https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2764367/effectiveness-surgical-cotton-masks-blocking-sars-cov-2-controlled-comparison?fbclid=IwAR2PmbMBLkJflQI9jUwpBg6rgNQSy7Kw3CeoMjqaK5BP2imK9vYSfig6Lyc
The article is quite short (took me a minute to read) and it doesn’t say that.
First, they did not use any N95 masks.
Second, their last paragraph is deceiving. If you read the one before the last they state they don’t know what these results actually mean. They don’t filter all the particles, sure. The Petri dishes were placed only 20 cm away from their face, and the masks for sure reduce the size of the larger droplets which might travel further and be more infectious (higher quantity).
The conclusion that I take from this is: if a person coughs and has a mask, don’t stay closer to them than you would if they didn’t have a mask.
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That sentiment is not only spectacularly asinine, it has no place in this thread. Final warning, Alan.
Jeremy
Jeremy, It's not spectacularly asinine. Wuhan City where the virus started has a top secret Chinese lab that develops and researches viruses. It's possible that they weaponize diseases there and it got out by mistake. The purpose of weaponizing is to be used in an adversarial attack. Certainly discussions about that possibility is a valid concern. I guarantee American secret agencies are investigating the possibility and may even know what happened, just keeping it quiet. Even your own Boris Johnson and his government thinks there's a possibility. If it can't be discussed in this thread, where can you discuss it? Threatening me with banning seems arbitrary. What standard are you using so posters know what limits you have in mind?
https://www.businessinsider.com/boris-johnson-government-coronavirus-may-leaked-chinese-laboratory-covid-2020-4
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... The conclusion that I take from this is: if a person coughs and has a mask, don’t stay closer to them than you would if they didn’t have a mask.
Dare I draw a different conclusion from what you said above? If one keeps the distance, masks are not needed?
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... If it can't be discussed in this thread, where can you discuss it?...
Alan, since the question you posed is political, it does not belong to this thread. You have your own Playpen thread for that.
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Here's some good news about "curve flattening" in British Columbia on Canada's west coast, https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-ontario-quebec-covid-19-1.5524056 (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-ontario-quebec-covid-19-1.5524056). It's an analysis of what went right. It was interesting to read about their public health planning. With all the shouting, we don't get to hear about how things can be done right, too boring I guess. Public health is really quite different than what we normally think of as medical care. The doctor-patient relationship is a one on one interaction but public health is a public commons arena, requires a different mind set.
Isn't BC less populated per square mile? Wouldn't the bigger more crowded cities in Ontario and Quebec account for higher rates of infections?
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Dare I draw a different conclusion from what you said above? If one keeps the distance, masks are not needed?
No. First, this would travel faster and stay airborne longer without a mask, and second, the masks decrease your infectious spread around you.
The masks for everybody are not to prevent to wearer to get infected, but to decrease the chance that a wearer will infect others.
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Alan, since the question you posed is political, it does not belong to this thread. You have your own Playpen thread for that.
Oh, you're right. I got mixed up which thread I was posting on. Sorry Jeremy.
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Dare I draw a different conclusion from what you said above? If one keeps the distance, masks are not needed?
Probably not a case of one or the other, maybe every little bit helps. Depending on specific conditions, some things may help more than others.
All I can discern from everything I've read is that masks may not help the wearer much in some cases, since eyes are still exposed and droplets may accumulate on the outside of masks that a person may later touch. You might need full face screens to provide passive protection of that kind.
Masks seem to protect others from people who are wearing masks. So if everyone wore them, that might be good. But it only matters in close quarters. When I'm out for a walk, I never get close enough to anyone for it to matter much, I wouldn't think. But that was true before Covid-19.
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Isn't BC less populated per square mile? Wouldn't the bigger more crowded cities in Ontario and Quebec account for higher rates of infections?
B.C.'s demographics are probably not significantly different than anywhere else. The vast majority of people live in cities and towns, just like everywhere else. You might just have to drive farther to get to the next town, is all.
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Isn't BC less populated per square mile? Wouldn't the bigger more crowded cities in Ontario and Quebec account for higher rates of infections?
All three provinces are quite large, but in all three of them most of the population resides just in a few cities in a relatively narrow strip in the southern regions. The population densities in Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal are about the same.
Montreal has emerged as Canada’s COVID-19 hot spot after an early spring break and close ties to New York and France sowed novel coronavirus infections that are rapidly growing into new cases and hospitalizations. Montreal, with about 5 per cent of Canada’s population, has about one-quarter of the country’s COVID-19 cases, according to the latest data published by public health authorities. The province of Quebec, with 22 per cent of Canada’s population, has about half of the country’s cases.
Public health officials and independent experts, along with Premier François Legault, point back to Feb. 28 to explain the province’s rapid expansion in coronavirus infection and serious illness. That was the last day of school before spring break for most Quebec school children.
As thousands of Quebeckers drove into the United States and flew to Europe and the Caribbean on holiday, the coronavirus was known mostly for infecting Asian countries, northern Italy, and a cruise ship off the coast of Japan. While Quebeckers were away, on March 1, Florida declared a public health emergency. New York followed on March 7, as Quebeckers started to head home.
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-why-quebecs-coronavirus-cases-have-skyrocketed/
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B.C.'s demographics are probably not significantly different than anywhere else. The vast majority of people live in cities and towns, just like everywhere else. You might just have to drive farther to get to the next town, is all.
In the US, it's the population centers like NYC Metro Area that are getting hit hardest which makes a lot of sense. If your neighbor is a bear, it's pretty hard to get infected. Also, don't more foreigners go to Ontario and Quebec than BC cities. So the exposure is greater.
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In the US, it's the population centers like NYC Metro Area that are getting hit hardest which makes a lot of sense. If your neighbor is a bear, it's pretty hard to get infected. Also, don't more foreigners go to Ontario and Quebec than BC cities. So the exposure is greater.
Canada's Most Visited Cities
Montreal: 2,240,000 Visitors Per Year.
Vancouver: 3,900,000 Visitors Per Year.
Toronto: 4,520,000 Visitors Per Year.
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By comparison, NYC had about 60 million visitors last year which could account for it's high infection rate.
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Canada's Most Visited Cities
Montreal: 2,240,000 Visitors Per Year.
Vancouver: 3,900,000 Visitors Per Year.
Toronto: 4,520,000 Visitors Per Year.
This is actually an evidence that the city size or number of its visitors is not the most important factor. Montreal is smaller than Toronto, it had the fewest visitors out of the three cities, but the highest infection count. As pointed out in my previous post, the large infection count is attributed to many Quebec travelers who brought the virus back home from their vacation.
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This is actually an evidence that the city size or number of its visitors is not the most important factor. Montreal is smaller than Toronto, it had the fewest visitors out of the three cities, but the highest infection count. As pointed out in my previous post, the large infection count is attributed to many Quebec travelers who brought the virus back home from their vacation.
Well the French kiss more than the British. :)
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Dare I draw a different conclusion from what you said above? If one keeps the distance, masks are not needed?
Only if you are upwind. I was thinking about this the other day in the grocery store which has central HVAC system for heating and cooling. I think I was under one of the vents and felt the air coming in from the ceiling. Viral particles if they are suspended in a somewhat dry environment can be blown around by the heating/cooling system.
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Only if you are upwind. I was thinking about this the other day in the grocery store which has central HVAC system for heating and cooling. I think I was under one of the vents and felt the air coming in from the ceiling. Viral particles if they are suspended in a somewhat dry environment can be blown around by the heating/cooling system.
There was a discussion about how effective really are the HVAC filters, particularly when in an enclosed space, aka planes.
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Isn't BC less populated per square mile? Wouldn't the bigger more crowded cities in Ontario and Quebec account for higher rates of infections?
Next to Manhatten, Vancouver's downtown has the 2nd highest density population in North America. There is also a huge Asia population in Vancouver and lots of people travel back and forth between Vancouver and Asia.
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Big difference between BC and Ontario / Quebec is BC started the isolation and distancing before spring break whereas the other provinces waited a bit, allowing the virus to spread within the cities. Just more proof that early acting really make a difference.
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If the government said today that they're taking away everyone's car and forcing people to take public transportation in order to save 30,000 lives annually due to auto accidents, most people would be furious, even those who may have lost family members in accidents. So asking them to give up their livelihood and let their families starve and calling them selfish just isn't fair and reasonable. Only the independently wealthy can be self-righteous and claim unselfishness.
About 90 people/day die in the US due to car accidents. CV-19 is killing over 1000/day right now, and that number is accelerating.
How big does it have to get before you'll support drastic action?
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There was a discussion about how effective really are the HVAC filters, particularly when in an enclosed space, aka planes.
As far as I am aware, no air-handler filters (at least, none sold for general commercial or residential use in the United States) are rated to trap particles smaller than 0.3 microns. The COVID-19 virus is approximately 0.125 micron. Of course, that's the virus itself. My understanding is that as an infectious agent, the virus is almost always encapsulated in a droplet such as those emitted by a cough or sneeze. I suspect those droplets typically are large enough to be captured by most of the filters that would be used in a commercial building, a home with forced-air ventilation, or an aircraft. I read somewhere that the filters used in commercial airplanes have a rating similar to those used in hospital operating rooms.
As an aside, I've also read that about half the air circulated in airline cabins is fresh, the other half recirculated. It's impractical to use 100 percent fresh air at the altitude most jets fly and provide an acceptable level of humidity for the cabin occupants.
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As an aside, I've also read that about half the air circulated in airline cabins is fresh, the other half recirculated. It's impractical to use 100 percent fresh air at the altitude most jets fly and provide an acceptable level of humidity for the cabin occupants.
One of the essential 'ingredients' in airline air purification systems is, unless I'm mistaken, PG.
Propylene Glycol (PG) is a synthetic product that begins by oxidizing Propylene with organic hydrogen peroxide to create Propylene Oxide. From there, it is then hydrolysed into Propylene Glycol.
In 1942, a study(*) conducted by Dr. Oswald Hope Robertson of the University of Chicago’s Billings Hospital studied how the inhalation of propylene glycol impacted laboratory mice. Dr. Robertson was testing the effects of PG by inhalation. He suspected that this powerful ingredient could potentially be helpful for treating respiratory diseases, influenza, and even pneumonia.
He placed groups of mice into two chambers. In the first chamber, he sprayed the air with propylene glycol and then the flu virus. In the second chamber, he sprayed only the flu virus. All of the mice in the chamber sprayed with propylene glycol survived, whereas the mice exposed only to the flu virus died.
Dr. Robertson concluded, “The propylene glycol itself was a potent germicide. One part of glycol in 2,000,000 parts of air would – within a few seconds – kill concentrations of air-suspended pneumococci, streptococci, and other bacteria numbering millions to the cubic foot.” The results were published in the US National Library of Medicine in the same year.
(*) http://content.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,932876,00.html
Food for thought ?
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One of the essential 'ingredients' in airline air purification systems is, unless I'm mistaken, PG.
Propylene Glycol (PG) is a synthetic product that begins by oxidizing Propylene with organic hydrogen peroxide to create Propylene Oxide. From there, it is then hydrolysed into Propylene Glycol.
Food for thought ?
It sounds very impressive. Were there any subsequent studies and are any doctors or hospitals using this method to kill the bacteria?
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This is actually an evidence that the city size or number of its visitors is not the most important factor. Montreal is smaller than Toronto, it had the fewest visitors out of the three cities, but the highest infection count. As pointed out in my previous post, the large infection count is attributed to many Quebec travelers who brought the virus back home from their vacation.
I have a boat in a Fort Lauderdale marina, adjacent to a RV park. One long stretch of the park, on both sides of the road, is dominated by RVs from Quebec, and French is the common language. All those people left Lauderdale after the spring break parties. Relevant? Who knows?
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It sounds very impressive. Were there any subsequent studies and are any doctors or hospitals using this method to kill the bacteria?
Well PG is the ingredient that's pervasive in many products and it's anti-bacterial. The FDA classifies PG as a food and drug additive that is “generally recognized as safe”. It is clear, colourless, and has no taste or odour - essentially a synthetic liquid that absorbs water. It is still widely used today and a principal ingredient of asthma inhalers, albuterol treatments and a multitude of air purification systems (aircraft, hospitals, hotels, offices etc)
There is evidence, empirical & anecdotal, that it not only assists asthma sufferers with a consequential reduction in the use of inhalers but provides an effective degree of protection against infections, flu included.
Scientific proven studies ? None that I know of. Yet.
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I have a boat in a Fort Lauderdale marina, adjacent to a RV park. One long stretch of the park, on both sides of the road, is dominated by RVs from Quebec, and French is the common language. All those people left Lauderdale after the spring break parties. Relevant? Who knows?
Very likely, it was one of the factors in the infection spread in Quebec. Every year, several hundred thousands of Québécois overwinter in Southern Florida.
On a slightly different subject, today it was reported that a week ago a family returning to Quebec, transported a dead body all the way from Florida. The death was caused not by the coronavirus, but by a heart attack.
Canadian border agents discovered that a family had driven from Florida to Quebec with their deceased family member's body in the backseat of their car. The family cited the high cost of U.S. health care, plus the cost of shipping the body back to Canada, as the reason they didn't stop at a hospital, CTV News reported. Fernand Drapeau, 87, was with his son and wife on his way back home to Quebec from Florida when he suffered a heart attack and died, CTV News said. His family decided to keep driving home to Canada.
https://www.abc12.com/content/news/508325942.html
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I have a boat in a Fort Lauderdale marina, adjacent to a RV park. One long stretch of the park, on both sides of the road, is dominated by RVs from Quebec, and French is the common language. All those people left Lauderdale after the spring break parties. Relevant? Who knows?
That's exactly the difference between BC and Quebec / Ontario. BC locked down prior to spring break and ordered incoming people to BC to self isolate for 14 days. Quebec and Ontario waited until after spring break with a bunch coming into the provinces from abroad without any isolation.
That just shows you how important quick action is to grabbing hold of this virus. Days count...and when we see weeks wasted without any action like in the US...well you can see what's happening.
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That's exactly the difference between BC and Quebec / Ontario. BC locked down prior to spring break and ordered incoming people to BC to self isolate for 14 days. Quebec and Ontario waited until after spring break with a bunch coming into the provinces from abroad without any isolation.
That just shows you how important quick action is to grabbing hold of this virus. Days count...and when we see weeks wasted without any action like in the US...well you can see what's happening.
Monday morning quarterbacking. We'll know better next time.
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Monday morning quarterbacking. We'll know better next time.
Stop repeating that nonsense. Everybody who knows anything about this always knew and they told anyone who'd listen. Some listened, some didn't.
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Well PG is the ingredient that's pervasive in many products and it's anti-bacterial. The FDA classifies PG as a food and drug additive that is “generally recognized as safe”. It is clear, colourless, and has no taste or odour - essentially a synthetic liquid that absorbs water. It is still widely used today and a principal ingredient of asthma inhalers, albuterol treatments and a multitude of air purification systems (aircraft, hospitals, hotels, offices etc)
There is evidence, empirical & anecdotal, that it not only assists asthma sufferers with a consequential reduction in the use of inhalers but provides an effective degree of protection against infections, flu included.
Scientific proven studies ? None that I know of. Yet.
You ought to email the NIH with you thoughts about this. Maybe they could see if it would help with Covid-19.
Email who you think is appropriate.
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/director-contacts
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Stop repeating that nonsense. Everybody who knows anything about this always knew and they told anyone who'd listen. Some listened, some didn't.
I can't respond. Politics you know. :)
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Monday morning quarterbacking. We'll know better next time.
Actually, some people were raising the alarm already two months ago, while others were minimizing it. For many, there won't be a next time.
Today's death count: 800 in NY, 2000 in USA, 7000+ worldwide
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Well PG is the ingredient that's pervasive in many products and it's anti-bacterial. The FDA classifies PG as a food and drug additive that is “generally recognized as safe”. It is clear, colourless, and has no taste or odour - essentially a synthetic liquid that absorbs water. It is still widely used today and a principal ingredient of asthma inhalers, albuterol treatments and a multitude of air purification systems (aircraft, hospitals, hotels, offices etc)
There is evidence, empirical & anecdotal, that it not only assists asthma sufferers with a consequential reduction in the use of inhalers but provides an effective degree of protection against infections, flu included.
Scientific proven studies ? None that I know of. Yet.
It is less than immediately obvious that an anti-bacterial agent can provide even the slightest protection against a virus, whether influenza or covid-19.
Jeremy
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Actually, some people were raising the alarm already two months ago, while others were minimizing it...
There is always someone somewhere, saying something. And then there is always someone saying something different. Someone is always right in retrospect.
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Where does the broke Portugal treasury get the money to pay out-of-work people while it's waiting for the EU money? It can't print it like America. Where does the EU get the money from? Are the rich nations in the EU going to bail everyone out again? What will this do to the EU? Will they follow GB a la Brexit? Is anyone in Europe thinking this through?
1. In 2019 Portugal had a superavit, so we are not broke. This cushion is coming in very useful now.
2. EU finance ministers are meeting since yesterday to discuss a total package of 500 billion euros, money that countries can borrow at very low interest, coming from EBI, ECB, and other institutions. The risk is that countries that already have 120% of debt don't want to raise it even more - Italy, Spain, Portugal, even France. They want "coronabonds".
3. As I said before, the EU works and decides at a slower pace, but a decision will come in the next few weeks.
4. In the last 2008 crisis, Portugalwent bankrupt and in 2011 we had to call the IMF and EU to borrow money. A total of 75 billion euros. We paid it already. This time around, the number is going to be much higher. The difference now is that all countries are hit equally by the pandemics, and it is no ones fault.
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There is always someone somewhere, saying something. And then there is always someone saying something different. Someone is always right in retrospect.
I remember seeing a chinese doctor on the telly around mid-Feb, when china was being hit severely, warning their italian counterparts to take this virus seriously. They did not, and we know the consequences. More than 50% of deaths in Italy are in the Bergamo region, where the infection can now be traced back to the celebrations of Atalanta's victory in the champions League against Athletic Madrid - that match was actually played in Milan (due to Atalanta's stadium lack of conditions) - another high infection place. Milan also suffered due to Feb they have a lot of fashion events.
Portugal is most affected in the northern part, especially around Porto. Why? It is an industrial area for Portuguese fashion brands, many people go to Milan to attend, you guessed it, fashion shows. They returned to Portugal infected. By mid-March in Portugal, there were about 12 contagion chains that could be traced to Italy, Spain, and France, which is hardly surprising.
I also remember an Italian doctor on the telly, end March, warning doctors from Spain and France not to treat this as a "flu".
So yes, everybody will have something to say, that is why I only listen to doctors, nurses, hralth care specialists, and scientists from the area. It is especially important to learn from others that were hit previously, as the virus took some time to spread and gave for instance Europe at least 1 month warning, and North America 2 months.
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It is less than immediately obvious that an anti-bacterial agent can provide even the slightest protection against a virus, whether influenza or covid-19.
See my earlier post #458.
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Extensive study in The Lancet
Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of patients with COVID-19 have been reported but risk factors for mortality and a detailed clinical course of illness, including viral shedding, have not been well described.
We included 171 patients with complete data for all variables (53 non-survivors and 118 survivors) ... For survivors, the median duration of viral shedding was 20·0 days from illness onset ... The shortest observed duration of viral shedding among survivors was 8 days, whereas the longest was 37 days. Among 29 patients who received lopinavir/ritonavir and were discharged, the median time from illness onset to initiation of antiviral treatment was 14·0 days and the median duration of viral shedding was 22·0 days.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30566-3/fulltext
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A question about masks. The impression I've had is that they are disposable, that they can't be dis-infected. I sort of understand why immersion in dis-infecting liquids could affect the integrity of the fabric, but is there a reason why UV dis-infection wouldn't work?
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In response to the idea what no one knew what to do at the onset of the contagion, I listened to a report about the Spanish Flu epidemic yesterday (recent podcast episode of NPR's Human Brain https://www.npr.org/2020/03/23/820066211/an-unfinished-lesson-what-the-1918-flu-tells-us-about-human-nature (https://www.npr.org/2020/03/23/820066211/an-unfinished-lesson-what-the-1918-flu-tells-us-about-human-nature)) and they did social distancing in 1918-1919.
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Another on-line resource: The Lancet
https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus
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There is always someone somewhere, saying something. And then there is always someone saying something different. Someone is always right in retrospect.
That’s why you should look for advice to people who are trained to deal with this, and select those people based on competency and not yes/no status.
I have no inside info and yet I knew it will spread after they announced the first case in US without a known sick contact/ travel, that means it was already out there in the community for a while. I’m sure the right people knew this way sooner than I did. And this was in late February.
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A question about masks. The impression I've had is that they are disposable, that they can't be dis-infected. I sort of understand why immersion in dis-infecting liquids could affect the integrity of the fabric, but is there a reason why UV dis-infection wouldn't work?
It is a matter of the UV reaching the location of the virus with enough intensity and duration. On cloth or fabric that would be very difficult. It can work for planar surfaces like tools, glasses, AC evaporators, etc.
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A question about masks. The impression I've had is that they are disposable, that they can't be dis-infected. I sort of understand why immersion in dis-infecting liquids could affect the integrity of the fabric, but is there a reason why UV dis-infection wouldn't work?
It depends.
The cotton and similar could easily be washed, but those masks they are not that effective.
Allegedly some surgical masks can be disinfected by boiling for 3 min without significant damage but I have yet to see this confirmed. Probably you could leave them for days without touching them and the virus will die, even sooner if they get some sun.
For N95 they are coming with several options because of the current shortage. CDC said that 30 min at 70 degrees C will be good enough. Some use hydrogen peroxide vapors. Others (and my hospital I think it’s going with this) will use ethylene oxide gas, commonly used for medical devices.
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There is always someone somewhere, saying something. And then there is always someone saying something different. Someone is always right in retrospect.
There are always someone predicting stock market boom or crash. And then there is always someone saying something different. Some are usually right and some loose their shirts.
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There was a discussion about how effective really are the HVAC filters, particularly when in an enclosed space, aka planes.
Here's an article I read this morning about various materials that can be incorporated into homemade masks: https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-homemade-mask-material-DIY-face-mask-ppe.html Part of the problem with some materials is loose fibers, particularly if they contain fiberglass.
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A question about masks. The impression I've had is that they are disposable, that they can't be dis-infected. I sort of understand why immersion in dis-infecting liquids could affect the integrity of the fabric, but is there a reason why UV dis-infection wouldn't work?
Chancellor Angela Merkel recommends desinfecting masks in the microwave.
“Improper use could be even more fatal,” Merkel said when asked if the government would recommend wearing masks. “You need to wash it regularly, avoid wearing it over a long period of time, iron it, or warm it the oven or the microwave.”
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Chancellor Angela Merkel recommends desinfecting masks in the microwave.
If there is any elastic in the mask, it could degrade with irradiation.
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In most cases, even a one-time-use mask could survive a couple of gentle cleanings.
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Chancellor Angela Merkel recommends desinfecting masks in the microwave.
If it doesn’t have materials that melt.
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Merkel was referring to DIY fabric masks. Standard surgical masks contain a strip of metal, so not a good candidate for the microwave.
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Monday morning quarterbacking. We'll know better next time.
Do you really think little old BC had information that Trump did not.
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It depends.
The cotton and similar could easily be washed, but those masks they are not that effective.
Allegedly some surgical masks can be disinfected by boiling for 3 min without significant damage but I have yet to see this confirmed. Probably you could leave them for days without touching them and the virus will die, even sooner if they get some sun.
For N95 they are coming with several options because of the current shortage. CDC said that 30 min at 70 degrees C will be good enough. Some use hydrogen peroxide vapors. Others (and my hospital I think it’s going with this) will use ethylene oxide gas, commonly used for medical devices.
Why not spray with alcohol and let dry in the sun?
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There are always someone predicting stock market boom or crash. And then there is always someone saying something different. Some are usually right and some loose their shirts.
Once a year, our Men's Club goes to a NJ race track with our wives. Probably around 50 people. The track, either Freehold trotters or the thoroughbreds at Monmouth, set up a special room for us with smorgasbord, chicken Milanese, and other delights, and booze and wine, and betting booths just for us. We all have a great time. At the end of each race, the winners start shouting with glee and appreciation of themselves telling everyone how they picked the winner using some mystical method or some other. Then after the next race, those winners start screaming with glee and described how they picked their winners using their methods. It's funny. None of them ever described how they picked their losers.
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Here's an article I read this morning about various materials that can be incorporated into homemade masks: https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-homemade-mask-material-DIY-face-mask-ppe.html Part of the problem with some materials is loose fibers, particularly if they contain fiberglass.
Fiberglass in your lungs can cause cancer like asbestos. You don't want to be breathing in that stuff.
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Do you really think little old BC had information that Trump did not.
Ever go to a race track and follow the picks of the experts. They don't pick winners all the time either. We get advice everyday about things. Stocks, the weather, etc. How do you know which advice is the correct one. If we could know, we'd all pick the winners at the race track and the stock market and all be very rich. Obviously, someone is going to be right. But some people pick long shots and other pick the favorites. But not all the horses are going to win. So your constant reminded about Trump is silly and politicking, something this thread isn't about, or so I'm told.
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Can you clean nitrile gloves?
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Ever go to a race track and follow the picks of the experts. They don't pick winners all the time either. We get advice everyday about things. Stocks, the weather, etc. How do you know which advice is the correct one. If we could know, we'd all pick the winners at the race track and the stock market and all be very rich. Obviously, someone is going to be right. But some people pick long shots and other pick the favorites. But not all the horses are going to win. So your constant reminded about Trump is silly and politicking, something this thread isn't about, or so I'm told.
If not use the advice from experts...who's advice would be better to use? Do I listen to the experts about stocks each morning or do I go to the corner store and get his advice.
In this case...there were many experts saying the same damn thing. Your insistence of experts aren't always right is correct...but tell me who else would you listen to if the experts all are saying the same thing.
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In response to the idea what no one knew what to do at the onset of the contagion, I listened to a report about the Spanish Flu epidemic yesterday (recent podcast episode of NPR's Human Brain https://www.npr.org/2020/03/23/820066211/an-unfinished-lesson-what-the-1918-flu-tells-us-about-human-nature (https://www.npr.org/2020/03/23/820066211/an-unfinished-lesson-what-the-1918-flu-tells-us-about-human-nature)) and they did social distancing in 1918-1919.
I can´t remember where I posted the picture anymore, so many threads... it was a pic from NatGeo with a series of graphics from the 1918 influenza, on the epidemic curve for several cities in the USA. The ones that had fewer deaths were the ones that implemented quarantine earlier. So no surprise there - 100 years later, human society is very different, but viruses are not, they are very basic and predictable.
I also read a report from a economy university saying that in the long term, protecting people and quarantining was better for the economy.
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Why not spray with alcohol and let dry in the sun?
Alcohol can destroy the smaller fibers needed for proper filtering.
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If not use the advice from experts...who's advice would be better to use? Do I listen to the experts about stocks each morning or do I go to the corner store and get his advice.
In this case...there were many experts saying the same damn thing. Your insistence of experts aren't always right is correct...but tell me who else would you listen to if the experts all are saying the same thing.
It's not that experts aren't always right. It's that their advice varies. So it becomes difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff.
Think about camera recommendations here. We're all pretty savvy about these things. Yet someone asks a question, and they'll get half a dozen different recommendations, all may have some validity. Almost always, there is no completely right answer. which I think is the situation here. How do you balance economic issues against health issues. There really is no winning solution. This is one of those things that there will be great damage regardless of which way you go. Of course, picking the better way is always easier after the race is over. Big deal.
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It's not that experts aren't always right. It's that their advice varies. So it becomes difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff.
Think about camera recommendations here. We're all pretty savvy about these things. Yet someone asks a question, and they'll get half a dozen different recommendations, all may have some validity. Almost always, there is no completely right answer. which I think is the situation here. How do you balance economic issues against health issues. There really is no winning solution. This is one of those things that there will be great damage regardless of which way you go. Of course, picking the better way is always easier after the race is over. Big deal.
Are you actually comparing camera advice with health policy decisions?
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I can´t remember where I posted the picture anymore, so many threads... it was a pic from NatGeo with a series of graphics from the 1918 influenza, on the epidemic curve for several cities in the USA. The ones that had fewer deaths were the ones that implemented quarantine earlier. So no surprise there - 100 years later, human society is very different, but viruses are not, they are very basic and predictable.
I also read a report from a economy university saying that in the long term, protecting people and quarantining was better for the economy.
If people were smart and learned from experience, there would have been no WWII.
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Are you actually comparing camera advice with health policy decisions?
Yes. How else would you decide things on issues you never experienced before? We all use our other experience in life to help us. Unless you know a genie you call to get advice.
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It's not that experts aren't always right. It's that their advice varies. So it becomes difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff.
I have had the exact opposite experience. The advice has been highly consistent and clear. Keep away from each other and wash your hands. There are no approved drugs and any vaccine is 12-18 months away. This has been repeated by just about anyone who knows anything about the topic and they have been saying this from the start. It's all archived in podcasts and text documents.
Whenever topics come up that are not known yet, they have always said that it wasn't known yet, i.e., masks, but this is our best knowledge on the subject as of the moment, but the basic rules about distance and washing still and always apply.
The only confusing nonsense I've heard was from web noise.
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It's not that experts aren't always right. It's that their advice varies. So it becomes difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff.
Think about camera recommendations here. We're all pretty savvy about these things. Yet someone asks a question, and they'll get half a dozen different recommendations, all may have some validity. Almost always, there is no completely right answer. which I think is the situation here. How do you balance economic issues against health issues. There really is no winning solution. This is one of those things that there will be great damage regardless of which way you go. Of course, picking the better way is always easier after the race is over. Big deal.
But if the majority of experts are saying the same thing...who would you believe? You talk with a lot of what ifs...but reality was the experts were saying the same thing...and much more importantly, the pandemic was well on its way in other parts of the world.
If China was locking down and people were dying and the experts were saying this virus was extremely dangerous and action needs to be taken...what would you do?
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As you know I'm reviewing all the studies that are coming out. One interesting line of research, and I stress this is all observational, is that countries where there is universal BCG vaccination appear to have fewer cases of SARS-CoV-2. there have been about a dozen papers on this topic. Here is a NY Times story on this topic that is pretty straight forward: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/health/coronavirus-bcg-vaccine.html & Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BCG_vaccine Whether is is just a data curiosity or something meaningful is difficult to assess right now.
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I have had the exact opposite experience. The advice has been highly consistent and clear. Keep away from each other and wash your hands. There are no approved drugs and any vaccine is 12-18 months away. This has been repeated by just about anyone who knows anything about the topic and they have been saying this from the start. It's all archived in podcasts and text documents.
Whenever topics come up that are not known yet, they have always said that it wasn't known yet, i.e., masks, but this is our best knowledge on the subject as of the moment, but the basic rules about distance and washing still and always apply.
The only confusing nonsense I've heard was from web noise.
That's new news. It took a long time to sink in with people. I was referring to what government should have done early one. It was not as clear back then. Difficult choices did not seem so easy to pick. The CHinese were lying to us about the disease. We didn't have all the facts yet. That's what I was referring too.
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That's new news. It took a long time to sink in with people. I was referring to what government should have done early one. It was not as clear back then. Difficult choices did not seem so easy to pick. The CHinese were lying to us about the disease. We didn't have all the facts yet. That's what I was referring too.
Alan, when do you feel we had enough facts to make the right decisions?
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But if the majority of experts are saying the same thing...who would you believe? You talk with a lot of what ifs...but reality was the experts were saying the same thing...and much more importantly, the pandemic was well on its way in other parts of the world.
If China was locking down and people were dying and the experts were saying this virus was extremely dangerous and action needs to be taken...what would you do?
Probably not shut down the US economy during the early stages. At least not at first. Remember, there are economic experts as well as medical experts and scientific experts. So you get both advising you.
"Mr. President,' say the scientists. "If this virus gets out of hand, many people are going to die. We don't know how many. But a lot"
"Mr. President," say the economic experts, "if we shut down the economy by keeping people home. we're going to destroy it. Millions of people will be out of work. We don't know how many will starve and be bankrupted. But it will be a lot."
It's like the Gordian knot. The horns of a dilemma. Whose advice do you follow? You're damned if you do and damned if you don't.
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That's new news. It took a long time to sink in with people. I was referring to what government should have done early one. It was not as clear back then. Difficult choices did not seem so easy to pick. The CHinese were lying to us about the disease. We didn't have all the facts yet. That's what I was referring too.
You're hanging your hat on that Chinese lie a bit too much. There was a period of about a month from mid-December to about mid-January when they tried covering things up, and did not succeed ver well. They disciplined a doc or two, then eventually they changed their M.O. and reported to WHO. This is all well-documented. Before that, all they seemed to have was uncoordinated reports of a weird pneumonia in Wuhan. I have heard this narrative from several quarters now.
During that period of attempted cover-up, the info was getting out anyway, and reporters have disclosed that the various intelligence agencies were on top of it all and knew it was happening. So maybe it's true to say that you and I didn't have adequate info by mid-Jan, people in power did. And the info got out fairly rapidly soon after.
What the Chinese government did was stupid but ineffective. Makes sense to be pissed off about it, but it is not THE critical act of the story, just one of them. The virus was going to get out, that's what they do.
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Probably not shut down the US economy during the early stages. At least not at first. Remember, there are economic experts as well as medical experts and scientific experts. So you get both advising you.
"Mr. President,' say the scientists. "If this virus gets out of hand, many people are going to die. We don't know how many. But a lot"
"Mr. President," say the economic experts, "if we shut down the economy by keeping people home. we're going to destroy it. Millions of people will be out of work. We don't know how many will starve and be bankrupted. But it will be a lot."
It's like the Gordian knot. The horns of a dilemma. Whose advice do you follow? You're damned if you do and damned if you don't.
This is just repeat info. We've read it all before. We know what you think.
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You're hanging your hat on that Chinese lie a bit too much. There was a period of about a month from mid-December to about mid-January when they tried covering things up, and did not succeed ver well. They disciplined a doc or two, then eventually they changed their M.O. and reported to WHO. This is all well-documented. Before that, all they seemed to have was uncoordinated reports of a weird pneumonia in Wuhan. I have heard this narrative from several quarters now.
During that period of attempted cover-up, the info was getting out anyway, and reporters have disclosed that the various intelligence agencies were on top of it all and knew it was happening. So maybe it's true to say that you and I didn't have adequate info by mid-Jan, people in power did. And the info got out fairly rapidly soon after.
What the Chinese government did was stupid but ineffective. Makes sense to be pissed off about it, but it is not THE critical act of the story, just one of them. The virus was going to get out, that's what they do.
The Chinese got the WHO involved on Dec 31.
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You're hanging your hat on that Chinese lie a bit too much. There was a period of about a month from mid-December to about mid-January when they tried covering things up, and did not succeed ver well. They disciplined a doc or two, then eventually they changed their M.O. and reported to WHO. This is all well-documented. Before that, all they seemed to have was uncoordinated reports of a weird pneumonia in Wuhan. I have heard this narrative from several quarters now.
During that period of attempted cover-up, the info was getting out anyway, and reporters have disclosed that the various intelligence agencies were on top of it all and knew it was happening. So maybe it's true to say that you and I didn't have adequate info by mid-Jan, people in power did. And the info got out fairly rapidly soon after.
What the Chinese government did was stupid but ineffective. Makes sense to be pissed off about it, but it is not THE critical act of the story, just one of them. The virus was going to get out, that's what they do.
First off Trump did stop Chinese from coming here on Jan 31 followed by stopping travelers from Europe and then GB. It's true he didn't shut down the economy until later. Read my last post for why.
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This is just repeat info. We've read it all before. We know what you think.
We're up to page 26. We're all repeating ourselves. :)
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The Chinese got the WHO involved on Dec 31.
Sorry, too many dates in my head.
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The Chinese got the WHO involved on Dec 31.
The Chinese lied and WHO covered for them. A disgrace. A pox on both their houses.
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First off Trump did stop Chinese from coming here on Jan 31 followed by stopping travelers from Europe and then GB. It's true he didn't shut down the economy until later. Read my last post for why.
Many people have stated that stopping flights is not a minor factor in the contagion spread. It's an open world.
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We're up to page 26. We're all repeating ourselves. :)
So let's stop the repeats. Easy to do.
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The Chinese lied and WHO covered for them. A disgrace. A pox on both their houses.
From Jan 1 forward, there was increasing more information from the WHO with facts on the virus. Some just refused to listen to these facts.
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So let's stop the repeats. Easy to do.
Fine. I've asked about what we should do going forward? You guys keep wanting to go back to attack Trump.
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From Jan 1 forward, there was increasing more information from the WHO with facts on the virus. Some just refused to listen to these facts.
I'm taking Robert's advice and not going back to discuss the same thing over and over again. We all made our points about what should have been done two months ago. Time to move on.
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I'm taking Robert's advice and not going back to discuss the same thing over and over again. We all made our points about what should have been done two months ago. Time to move on.
Just hoping going forward history does not repeat. Much rather err on staying locked down longer than opening up too soon and causing another mess.
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Yes. How else would you decide things on issues you never experienced before? We all use our other experience in life to help us. Unless you know a genie you call to get advice.
It was a rhetorical question.
These issues have been experienced before, in multiple times and ways. We had even action plans designed for this kind of disaster. It's just some lacked the vision to look beyond the next step. Some still do.
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That's new news. It took a long time to sink in with people. I was referring to what government should have done early one. It was not as clear back then. Difficult choices did not seem so easy to pick. The CHinese were lying to us about the disease. We didn't have all the facts yet. That's what I was referring too.
What governments should have done was listen to the health experts and scientists of this subject, and implement measures sooner. Instead, some governments lost precious days in late Feb and early March going with their business as usual - election campaign in France with gatherings of a few thousand people, or public events in Spain with also gatherings of thousands of people.
UEFA still went on with Champions league matches, and only very reluctantly postponed Euro 2020.
These are just a few examples of what happens when you do not listen to the specialists.
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Just hoping going forward history does not repeat. Much rather err on staying locked down longer than opening up too soon and causing another mess.
Curious. What do you do for a living?
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Curious. What do you do for a living?
Retired. Was a product manager in an industrial automation company.
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It was a rhetorical question.
These issues have been experienced before, in multiple times and ways. We had even action plans designed for this kind of disaster. It's just some lacked the vision to look beyond the next step. Some still do.
You made that point numerous times. What do we do now?
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Retired. Was a product manager in an industrial automation company.
Me too. Well, if you were working and had to feed a family, you might a different opinion. By the way, did you work for Siemens? I was in commercials HVAC temperature control automation with Johnson Controls as well as in my own company where I rep'd others. .
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Me too. Well, if you were working and had to feed a family, you might a different opinion. By the way, did you work for Siemens? I was in commercials HVAC temperature control automation with Johnson Controls as well as in my own company where I rep'd others. .
No. I did a lot of work with a company that supplied products for Allen Bradley. My last position was with a company doing sawmill automation which was just amazing.
Don't know if you are familiar with PLC programming, but I managed the product Allen Bradley sells today.
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Fine. I've asked about what we should do going forward? You guys keep wanting to go back to attack Trump.
Going forward:
1. Not all countries are on the same phase of the crisis. Those who were hit early are now slowly reopening and restarting some of their economic activity, namely some Asian countries and some European ones. They will have to implement immunity tests to evaluate who can go back to work or back to school, etc. They will have to monitor the situation very closely and be ready to reinstate quarantine as needed. It is going to be a start/stop process in terms of the public health problem.
2. Countries who are say 4 weeks late relative to China in terms of infection start, and who are now apparently past the peak- Spain, Italy, Austria, and others - will still have to live for weeks with many deaths (Spain, Italy) while slowly reopening. Spain is saying 26 April, Italy soon too. I mentioned Austria because it is a country about the same population of Portugal, and whose epidemic curves are similar. They will reopen slowly in 14 April.
3. Countries that are 8 weeks later than China, like Portugal, France, UK, etc, will reopen late and watch closely what is happening in the meantime in the countries that have opened by then. In Portugal, this slow reopening will probably happen mid-May. Already a lot of public events in the summer have been cancelled. This is good, because our health care service is fragile. Our government listens to specialists in health and economy very closely - there are numerous meetings that involve decision makers, scientists, economists, workers unions, company owners, everybody is working together with a common goal: survive this crisis as best as we can. Example: schools were only closed after measures were in place to pay 2/3 salary to the parents who needed to go home and stay with their kids. We did not want to send the kids home to stay with their grandparents - that was a time bomb in Italy. We could have closed schools 5 days earlier, but then the kids would have no one to take care of them, or would have to stay with their grandparents and risk infecting them.
4. Countries who reacted late regarding public health isolation measures, will have to live with a higher number of deaths - that is well known since 1918.
5. Countries in general will see a rise in unemployment rate and debt. They will tackle that differently.
6. Still going forward, countries need to prepare NOW for the second wave of the infection. The downside of flattening the curve now is that the level of immunity is very low. Some scientists estimate that level to be around 10% in Italy - this is still low compared to the required 60-70% - and that is a country that has suffered a lot. in Portugal, estimate is 0.1%. So of course all countries need to prepare for what will happen in a few months - testing for immunity, restricting movement and air traffic, and monitor very quickly. We have learned a lot by then, already did today, so there is a great opportunity for concerted efforts. For example, in the EU, countries will need to do integrated monitoring of the health situation, and have plans in place should the infection ramp up again in a second wave in counitres A, B, or C - coordinate border closing, reduce plane travel, etc, as required. These plans will have to include economic incentives and measures to help affected businesses and people.
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No. I did a lot of work with a company that supplied products for Allen Bradley. My last position was with a company doing sawmill automation which was just amazing.
Don't know if you are familiar with PLC programming, but I managed the product Allen Bradley sells today.
I guess it's all similar to what I did years ago. I used Allen Bradley back then for large circuit breaker panels. I suppose the PLC integrated programmable control of lights and other motors used in industry to A-B's starters. I did similar things except computer control of HVAC control: dampers, valves, on/off control PID (proportional, integral, derivative) mode of operation, but applied to commercial and institutional buildings and facilities rather than factories and industrial controls.
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I guess it's all similar to what I did years ago...
You two, get a room ;)
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Going forward:
1. Not all countries are on the same phase of the crisis. Those who were hit early are now slowly reopening and restarting some of their economic activity, namely some Asian countries and some European ones. They will have to implement immunity tests to evaluate who can go back to work or back to school, etc. They will have to monitor the situation very closely and be ready to reinstate quarantine as needed. It is going to be a start/stop process in terms of the public health problem.
2. Countries who are say 4 weeks late relative to China in terms of infection start, and who are now apparently past the peak- Spain, Italy, Austria, and others - will still have to live for weeks with many deaths (Spain, Italy) while slowly reopening. Spain is saying 26 April, Italy soon too. I mentioned Austria because it is a country about the same population of Portugal, and whose epidemic curves are similar. They will reopen slowly in 14 April.
3. Countries that are 8 weeks later than China, like Portugal, France, UK, etc, will reopen late and watch closely what is happening in the meantime in the countries that have opened by then. In Portugal, this slow reopening will probably happen mid-May. Already a lot of public events in the summer have been cancelled. This is good, because our health care service is fragile. Our government listens to specialists in health and economy very closely - there are numerous meetings that involve decision makers, scientists, economists, workers unions, company owners, everybody is working together with a common goal: survive this crisis as best as we can. Example: schools were only closed after measures were in place to pay 2/3 salary to the parents who needed to go home and stay with their kids. We did not want to send the kids home to stay with their grandparents - that was a time bomb in Italy. We could have closed schools 5 days earlier, but then the kids would have no one to take care of them, or would have to stay with their grandparents and risk infecting them.
4. Countries who reacted late regarding public health isolation measures, will have to live with a higher number of deaths - that is well known since 1918.
5. Countries in general will see a rise in unemployment rate and debt. They will tackle that differently.
6. Still going forward, countries need to prepare NOW for the second wave of the infection. The downside of flattening the curve now is that the level of immunity is very low. Some scientists estimate that level to be around 10% in Italy - this is still low compared to the required 60-70% - and that is a country that has suffered a lot. in Portugal, estimate is 0.1%. So of course all countries need to prepare for what will happen in a few months - testing for immunity, restricting movement and air traffic, and monitor very quickly. We have learned a lot by then, already did today, so there is a great opportunity for concerted efforts. For example, in the EU, countries will need to do integrated monitoring of the health situation, and have plans in place should the infection ramp up again in a second wave in counitres A, B, or C - coordinate border closing, reduce plane travel, etc, as required. These plans will have to include economic incentives and measures to help affected businesses and people.
If there's a second stage, then those that waited may turn out better for them since more of their people have gotten infected. Herd immunity will be better in those countries. They may recover faster than the early birds. Don;t assume you have it all figured out. History has a way of surprising us. All the, I told you so's, may come back to haunt you.
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As you know I'm reviewing all the studies that are coming out. One interesting line of research, and I stress this is all observational, is that countries where there is universal BCG vaccination appear to have fewer cases of SARS-CoV-2. there have been about a dozen papers on this topic. Here is a NY Times story on this topic that is pretty straight forward: https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/health/coronavirus-bcg-vaccine.html & Wikipedia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BCG_vaccine Whether is is just a data curiosity or something meaningful is difficult to assess right now.
Thank you for the link, Alan.
" But evidence accumulating over the past decade suggests the vaccine also has so-called off-target effects, reducing viral illnesses, respiratory infections and sepsis, and appears to bolster the body’s immune system."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/health/coronavirus-bcg-vaccine.html?auth=login-email&login=email
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See my earlier post #458.
Saw it. It doesn't undermine my point; it demonstrates that killing bacteria in the air around a group of mice reduces the overall pathogenicity of influenza virus. If it had any further application, one might have expected the last >70 years to have thrown it up. So far as I've read, superadded bacterial infection is not required for the coronavirus to be lethal.
Jeremy
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Fiberglass in your lungs can cause cancer like asbestos.
There is no evidence for that assertion.
Jeremy
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There is no evidence for that assertion.
Jeremy
I wouldn't breathe fiberglass fibers floating around in the air. But what do I know?
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To put things into geographic perspective:
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New York, New Jersey report record coronavirus deaths with many deaths not counted in the stats. Assuming an average of 150 uncounted deaths, this would add 4,500 deaths per month. Just in these 2 states.
New York Mayor Bill De Blasio estimated an undercount in the death toll of 100 to 200 people per day who are dying at home but excluded from the city’s rapidly growing tally. So far the city’s announced death toll has reflected only COVID-19 diagnoses confirmed in a laboratory.
More than 200 people are dying at home in New York City each day during the pandemic, up from 22 to 32 during the March 20 to April 5 period a year ago, according to city fire officials.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/new-york-new-jersey-report-record-coronavirus-deaths-fear-death-toll-undercounted-idUSKBN21Q204
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New York, New Jersey report record coronavirus deaths with many deaths not counted in the stats. Assuming an average of 150 uncounted deaths, this would add 4,500 deaths per month. Just in these 2 states.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/new-york-new-jersey-report-record-coronavirus-deaths-fear-death-toll-undercounted-idUSKBN21Q204
The same thing is occurring in Italy where people that die at home are not tested and not tallied. Estimates of twice as many people have died from Covid as what is officially tallied. After all, why waste a Covid test on a dead person. I'm sure that same is occurring in many other countries.
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New York, New Jersey report record coronavirus deaths with many deaths not counted in the stats. Assuming an average of 150 uncounted deaths, this would add 4,500 deaths per month. Just in these 2 states.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/new-york-new-jersey-report-record-coronavirus-deaths-fear-death-toll-undercounted-idUSKBN21Q204
Fortunately, the predictions seem to be going down on the number of deaths anticipated overall.
DEATH TOLL PROJECTIONS
The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model lowered its projected U.S. death toll by 26%, to 60,000 from 80,000 by August 4. The model is one of several that the White House task force has cited.
The task force previously projected 100,000 to 240,000 Americans could die.
The institute also moved up its projected peak in the number to U.S. deaths to this Sunday, when it predicted 2,212 people will succumb to the disease. The revision moves forward the projected peak by four days, suggesting the strain on the country’s healthcare system will lessen sooner than previously expected.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/new-york-new-jersey-report-record-coronavirus-deaths-fear-death-toll-undercounted-idUSKBN21Q204
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They may be right, but I no longer trust that model. They change too radically in too short a time. There are several respectable models out there, and this is the one by far on the lowest end.
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They may be right, but I no longer trust that model. They change too radically in too short a time. There are several respectable models out there, and this is the one by far on the lowest end.
The prediction just makes the curve four days earlier for now. That's not a huge change in time and therefore subsequent deaths. Let's hope. Things are getting testy at home here. :)
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Fortunately, the predictions seem to be going down on the number of deaths anticipated overall.
DEATH TOLL PROJECTIONS
The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model lowered its projected U.S. death toll by 26%, to 60,000 from 80,000 by August 4. The model is one of several that the White House task force has cited.
The task force previously projected 100,000 to 240,000 Americans could die.
The institute also moved up its projected peak in the number to U.S. deaths to this Sunday, when it predicted 2,212 people will succumb to the disease. The revision moves forward the projected peak by four days, suggesting the strain on the country’s healthcare system will lessen sooner than previously expected.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/new-york-new-jersey-report-record-coronavirus-deaths-fear-death-toll-undercounted-idUSKBN21Q204
There are several critiques of that model. It might still be right but currently it's the most optimistic of them.
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There are several critiques of that model. It might still be right but currently it's the most optimistic of them.
Since all these models are just that, models, final decisions about the next steps will be made by the administration based on actual statistics. Let's hope things work out for the best.
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Since all these models are just that, models, final decisions about the next steps will be made by the administration based on actual statistics. Let's hope things work out for the best.
Trouble is by the time you get actual statistics...you are too late...the damage is done. That is why we use models.
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Trouble is by the time you get actual statistics...you are too late...the damage is done. That is why we use models.
We're talking about re-opening the economy based on actual statistics rather than models. That's a safer approach. It's not more damaging but rather less damaging.
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We're talking about re-opening the economy based on actual statistics rather than models. That's a safer approach. It's not more damaging but rather less damaging.
What actual statistics are you talking about? The 2000 deaths a day we are on right now in the US? Or is it the lack of testing and keeping track of deaths in some of the states making the numbers look good. What statistics do your really trust?
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What actual statistics are you talking about? The 2000 deaths a day we are on right now in the US? Or is it the lack of testing and keeping track of deaths in some of the states making the numbers look good. What statistics do your really trust?
You're making a political statement. I can't respond.
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Since all these models are just that, models, final decisions about the next steps will be made by the administration based on actual statistics. Let's hope things work out for the best.
Funny! What do you think these models are?
I’ll help, they are also called statistical models. It’s just a more complex interpretation of the data.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_model
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Funny! What do you think these models are?
I’ll help, they are also called statistical models. It’s just a more complex interpretation of the data.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_model
Sorry if my point was confusing. The earlier models predicting higher deaths have been superseded by more recent real-world statistics indicating that the actual deaths should be less. It's the later statistics and modelling that will be used to influence decisions when to open up the economy. The medical issue is not as bad as previous modelling indicated.
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Timeline for Covid-19 Fatalities By Country (average count for the last 7 days)
the horizontal axis show number of days after the 100th death
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Sorry if my point was confusing. The earlier models predicting higher deaths have been superseded by more recent real-world statistics indicating that the actual deaths should be less. It's the later statistics and modelling that will be used to influence decisions when to open up the economy. The medical issue is not as bad as previous modelling indicated.
Sadly, the actual deaths in USA are increasing. This could be due to more actual cases than reported cases. The more infections, the greater the death count.
New York state, epicenter of America’s coronavirus crisis, set another single-day record of COVID-19 deaths on Wednesday, as veteran doctors and nurses voiced astonishment at the speed with which patients were deteriorating and dying.
Doctors and nurses say elderly patients and those with underlying health conditions are not the only ones who appear relatively well one moment and at death’s door the next. It happens to the young and healthy, too.
Patients “look fine, feel fine, then you turn around and they’re unresponsive,” said Diana Torres, a nurse at Mount Sinai Hospital in New York City, the center of the nation’s worst outbreak. “I’m paranoid, scared to walk out of their room.”
Nearly 430,000 cases of COVID-19, the highly infectious lung disease caused by the coronavirus, were confirmed in the United States as of Wednesday afternoon, including more than 14,700 deaths. For the second straight day the virus killed at least 1,900 in a 24-hour period. Cuomo said 779 people had died in the past day in his state. New Jersey reported 275 had died there. Both totals exceeded one-day records from just a day earlier.
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I wouldn't breathe fiberglass fibers floating around in the air. But what do I know?
Not very much, it seems. Your instant retreat from the falsity of your baseless assertion that inhaled fibreglass causes cancer to "I wouldn't breathe fibreglass fibres" is merely amusing.
Jeremy
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If there's a second stage, then those that waited may turn out better for them since more of their people have gotten infected. Herd immunity will be better in those countries. They may recover faster than the early birds. Don;t assume you have it all figured out. History has a way of surprising us. All the, I told you so's, may come back to haunt you.
No country will have acquired herd immunity, that requires 60-70% population to be infected. In Europe, the most affected countries so far, Italy and Spain, are at 10% at best. So, all countries will need to prepare for the second wave now. The second wave of the spanish flu was the most deadly, in 1919/1920.
No one has all figured out, but there are some measures that can be implemented, following common sense.
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You're making a political statement. I can't respond.
It's not political. I just want to understand your statistics.
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Not very much, it seems. Your instant retreat from the falsity of your baseless assertion that inhaled fibreglass causes cancer to "I wouldn't breathe fibreglass fibres" is merely amusing.
Jeremy
No it does not cause cancer but there are a lot of occupational health papers on lung irritation and exacerbation of other lung disease symptoms.
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No country will have acquired herd immunity, that requires 60-70% population to be infected. In Europe, the most affected countries so far, Italy and Spain, are at 10% at best. So, all countries will need to prepare for the second wave now. The second wave of the spanish flu was the most deadly, in 1919/1920.
No one has all figured out, but there are some measures that can be implemented, following common sense.
Without a validated serology test to look at a very large community exposure cohort, nobody can say for certain what the background level of infection is. there have been "guesses" that infection rates are under counted by an order of magnitude or more. I have seen reports that Germany is beginning to do community testing for antibodies but it appears limited right now. If there is any one approach that can help solve this issue it's large scale testing.
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I just finished my daily review of pre-prints and clinical trials for my daily newsletter. I came across a very interesting Canadian vaccine trial (I you live in Vancouver, you might be eligible). It uses a microorganism in yogurt to express the SARS-CoV-2 antigen and is taken orally. Here is a link to the company website where this is described: https://www.symvivo.com/covid-19 Very cool if it works!!
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Very interesting study of minimum distances between people when moving compared to standing still, https://medium.com/@jurgenthoelen/belgian-dutch-study-why-in-times-of-covid-19-you-can-not-walk-run-bike-close-to-each-other-a5df19c77d08 (https://medium.com/@jurgenthoelen/belgian-dutch-study-why-in-times-of-covid-19-you-can-not-walk-run-bike-close-to-each-other-a5df19c77d08). Bottom line, you need more distance during movement like walking, running, cycling. See articles for estimates of minimum distances under various conditions. Glad someone has addressed this. It ha been a concern for people in the cycling community.
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I just wanted to make one off-topic aside. Isn't it interesting how our culture seems to highly value ball players, financial hucksters, scions of trust funds, and CEOs by rewarding them with nearly unprecedented levels of wealth but now we're suddenly scouring worldwide for the latest word from unknown researchers who in more normal times have to spend significant parts of their days begging for research grants. I enjoy watching videos of Messi dribbling the ball past 3 defenders and zipping it into the net for a goal. But right about now, I'd trade 10 Messis for one post-doc who finds a drug that kills Covid-19.
I know it's an unfair comparison, apples and oranges. I'm just saying that maybe our priorities may be slightly out of alignment with what matters. But people prefer to play than to work, I don't think that's going to change anytime soon.
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I just wanted to make one off-topic aside. Isn't it interesting how our culture seems to highly value ball players, financial hucksters, scions of trust funds, and CEOs by rewarding them with nearly unprecedented levels of wealth but now we're suddenly scouring worldwide for the latest word from unknown researchers who in more normal times have to spend significant parts of their days begging for research grants. I enjoy watching videos of Messi dribbling the ball past 3 defenders and zipping it into the net for a goal. But right about now, I'd trade 10 Messis for one post-doc who finds a drug that kills Covid-19.
I know it's an unfair comparison, apples and oranges. I'm just saying that maybe our priorities may be slightly out of alignment with what matters. But people prefer to play than to work, I don't think that's going to change anytime soon.
There was a theme I came across one of these days on the same idea. You pay C Ronaldo or Messi with more than 1 mil/month and yet now your are looking for answers to researchers payed less than 2k/month.
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Sadly, the actual deaths in USA are increasing. This could be due to more actual cases than reported cases. The more infections, the greater the death count.
The latest models are showing that there will be less deaths than originally predicted when it's all over. The current high rate currently is due to reaching the peak of the curve. The rate is coming down in NY as reported by Dr. Fauci. Instead of the 100-200K it looks like 60K. Meanwhile I'm staying locked down in the house except for a run to get groceries this morning. All pre-ordered stuff paid for beforehand. A stock boy with mask and gloves came out with all the foods bagged and dropped in in the trunk of the SUV so I didn't have to handle it until I got home. It was nice to get out. Strange see all the stores closed for the most part and really light traffic.
https://www.npr.org/2020/04/09/830664814/fauci-says-u-s-coronavirus-deaths-may-be-more-like-60-000-antibody-tests-on-way
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The 60,000 death toll estimate is based on 'full social distancing through May 2020'.
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Not very much, it seems. Your instant retreat from the falsity of your baseless assertion that inhaled fibreglass causes cancer to "I wouldn't breathe fibreglass fibres" is merely amusing.
Jeremy
It's true I can't find studies proving the danger except for one I saw with some doubt that it isn't safe. But there's no way I'd breath anywhere around where fiberglass could be airborne in little pieces like from insulation unless I was wearing a ventilator mask. It's just asking for trouble otherwise. Non-dissolvable fibers in my lungs doesn't seem like a good idea regardless of what the studies say. They're the same people who once said asbestos wasn't dangerous.
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Also, the 60,00 death toll is just for the first wave, which will be over by July.
From the site's FAQs:
Why do your estimates only go until July? Does that mean the outbreak will be over then?
Our model says that social distancing will likely lead to the end of the first wave of the epidemic by early June. The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By end the of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease, so avoiding reintroduction of COVID-19 through mass screening, contact tracing, and quarantine will be essential to avoid a second wave.
http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs
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I just finished my daily review of pre-prints and clinical trials for my daily newsletter. I came across a very interesting Canadian vaccine trial (I you live in Vancouver, you might be eligible). It uses a microorganism in yogurt to express the SARS-CoV-2 antigen and is taken orally. Here is a link to the company website where this is described: https://www.symvivo.com/covid-19 Very cool if it works!!
I just finished yogurt for lunch. I feel healthier already.
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I just wanted to make one off-topic aside. Isn't it interesting how our culture seems to highly value ball players, financial hucksters, scions of trust funds, and CEOs by rewarding them with nearly unprecedented levels of wealth but now we're suddenly scouring worldwide for the latest word from unknown researchers who in more normal times have to spend significant parts of their days begging for research grants. I enjoy watching videos of Messi dribbling the ball past 3 defenders and zipping it into the net for a goal. But right about now, I'd trade 10 Messis for one post-doc who finds a drug that kills Covid-19.
I know it's an unfair comparison, apples and oranges. I'm just saying that maybe our priorities may be slightly out of alignment with what matters. But people prefer to play than to work, I don't think that's going to change anytime soon.
Cost of labor is based on scarcity. There are fewer good dribblers than scientists.
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Also, the 60,00 death toll is just for the first wave, which will be over by July.
From the site's FAQs:
Why do your estimates only go until July? Does that mean the outbreak will be over then?
Our model says that social distancing will likely lead to the end of the first wave of the epidemic by early June. The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By end the of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease, so avoiding reintroduction of COVID-19 through mass screening, contact tracing, and quarantine will be essential to avoid a second wave.
http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs
So it's either get screwed now or get screwed later.
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So it's either get screwed now or get screwed later.
Yes, everything's changed.
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Cost of labor is based on scarcity. There are fewer good dribblers than scientists.
Not really. Fewer that make it to the top. All have a Bell distribution curve. If you look a scarcity only and not also at the value of the service, you have some serious issues ahead.
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So it's either get screwed now or get screwed later.
Yes, but you're more screwed now if you can't get into a hospital. If you're screwed later, when the rate is lower, you might get into one where they'll stick a ventilator down your throat until you die.
I'm getting tired of reading about all these possible treatments and vaccines that "could be ready in a year to eighteen months." We need one sooner than that, and media reports were saying "a year to eighteen months" three months ago. Why aren't they now saying, "nine to fifteen months," having subtracted the three we've already gone through?
Whatever happened to that hydroxychloroquine trial that was supposed to be going on in New York. Haven't heard a thing about that, lately. Was that a chimera?
I bought a new guitar, by mail order. It'll probably give me the covid virus, and I'll croak and my wife will never get her money back on it. That's one consoling thought, anyway.
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Earliest estimates I've seen for vaccines are early 2021.
The data for hydroxychloroquine is yet to come, good data is not easy to obtain.
There are treatment options being trialed now, one with immediate impact is with plasma from survivors (it contains antibodies against the virus).
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Earliest estimates I've seen for vaccines are early 2021.
The data for hydroxychloroquine is yet to come, good data is not easy to obtain.
There are treatment options being trialed now, one with immediate impact is with plasma from survivors (it contains antibodies against the virus).
I've heard that the plasma treatment is known to work, but its scope is limited -- there are only a couple of treatments available from each plasma draw from a donor., and of course, you have to track down donors, make sure there are no live virus in the draw, etc. We need pills. I understand that it now appears that remdesivir may not help much.
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Well, most patients get well on their own. So the ratio of survivors to sick patients would be good enough to help the most critical patients. But again, it's still in the trial phase.
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I've heard that the plasma treatment is known to work, but its scope is limited -- there are only a couple of treatments available from each plasma draw from a donor., and of course, you have to track down donors, make sure there are no live virus in the draw, etc. We need pills. I understand that it now appears that remdesivir may not help much.
The amount of plasma needed to treat all the people who need it is extremely large. Processing is not the issue as the technology to isolate neutralizing antibodies from sera is straight forward. The more appropriate way to go is through the isolation of monoclonal antibodies that can be grown in cell culture at large scale. There are some companies doing this R&D right now (Regeneron is one that I know very well) and there was a pre-print I read this morning that an especially promising antibody that binds tightly to the surface of the virus has been characterized.
the problem with remdisivier is that it has to be given IV; we really need an oral medicine that can be given early on when symptoms are identified so that it better helps patients at risk. I've not seen any data that points to an obvious drug right now. The problem is the clinical trial apparatus is spending way too much time and energy looking at hydroxychloroquine when they need to be trials on any thing that shows good in vitro inhibition. I also saw a Pfizer release that they have a good candidate. Unfortunately, it's never been tried in humans so there is no preliminary safety data as there is for all the FDA approved drugs.
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Whatever happened to that hydroxychloroquine trial that was supposed to be going on in New York. Haven't heard a thing about that, lately. Was that a chimera?
World wide there are so many hydroxychloroquine trials going on I've lost count. I would caution that this is not a wonder drug. The reported trials to date have been all over the place and some of them were of very poor quality. The 1/2 life of hydroxychloquine in your body is 22 days!! this is why the dose for malaria control is so low; the damn stuff hangs around. It also causes fatal cardiac arrythmias in susceptible individuals. When my daughter went to Ghana some years ago for a summer music program we refused to allow the use of this drug, opting for a safer alternative and telling her to make sure she used her bed net. She was in Ghana for six weeks and came back just fine.
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World wide there are so many hydroxychloroquine trials going on I've lost count. I would caution that this is not a wonder drug. The reported trials to date have been all over the place and some of them were of very poor quality. The 1/2 life of hydroxychloquine in your body is 22 days!! this is why the dose for malaria control is so low; the damn stuff hangs around. It also causes fatal cardiac arrythmias in susceptible individuals. When my daughter went to Ghana some years ago for a summer music program we refused to allow the use of this drug, opting for a safer alternative and telling her to make sure she used her bed net. She was in Ghana for six weeks and came back just fine.
Who wanted her to use chloroquine for Ghana?
The main reason why it's rarely used for malaria is the attached map.
And this: https://www.cdc.gov/malaria/travelers/country_table/g.html
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There was a theme I came across one of these days on the same idea. You pay C Ronaldo or Messi with more than 1 mil/month and yet now your are looking for answers to researchers payed less than 2k/month.
We need every one, for a normal society to function. Are some salaries exagerated, and others below what they should be? Yes. But Ronaldo and Messi are not payed by governments, clubs decide how much to pay them, it's market at work.
In Portugal, a lot of reserachers that are coming with innovative ideas and good work are working for many years in a precarious situation in several research institutes. I hope they are more recognized after this.
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We need every one, for a normal society to function. Are some salaries exagerated, and others below what they should be? Yes. But Ronaldo and Messi are not payed by governments, clubs decide how much to pay them, it's market at work.
This risks going off the topic of the thread. Of course you are correct and I don't begrudge the money Messi makes. He sacrificed years of his life and his career will be short compared to most working lives, and I congratulate him for cashing in when he can. My commentary was more about what the culture chooses to value. When it comes to recognition of science, I'm not an optimist. The boffin caricature still exist in pop culture, but then so do other caricatures. Luckily scientific subject matter is interesting in and of itself so will always attract practitioners. Anyway, there are worse inequities. Everyone is grateful for the drivers who deliver goods to our homes right now, some even get thanks and applause. We'll see how long that lasts, my guess is right up until they ask for a raise.
Yesterday's numbers and graphs on Worldometer seem to show a plateauing in many countries, that is, no decrease yet. Maybe this is not so surprising when it comes to number of new cases, maybe those numbers are higher because there's more testing. But deaths are remaining steady. The USA has been hovering close to 2000 deaths per day for 3 days. Focussing on day to day changes may too fine a granularity however. Many jurisdictions are giving signals about relaxing restrictions, which seems premature to me, but someone has to be first. Everyone else will be watching closely at the results.
Is it still general feeling still that we are asymptotically approaching 1% death rate overall or is it too early to call?
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Each country is taking different measures to face the health crisis and the ensuing economic crisis. EU moves at a slower pace, but something will be done to cater for the economy of the affected countries. In Portugal, where the large part of the economic structure is made of small companies, the problem is a short one - there is no money to pay salaries because there is no income. So the gov. has implemented a program of lay off, people go home temporarily and receive 2/3 of their monthly salary. Credit lines have also been opened to keep companies afloat. At the end of the day, the EU will have to come up with a concerted approach, otherwise it will be deemed as useless.
So yes, unemployment will go up, country debts will go up (Portugal's debt is 120% of GIP), but we will survive. I think it will be become clear in the coming weeks how policy makers will react, but the signs are out already. As for young people, they will survive too and adapt. Right now, I see a lot of young people who can not mourn their dead family members.
IMO, health comes first, and the economic balance will fall in naturally after that.
Today's news show 500 billion Euros to help. But German and other countries are refusing to pay for bonds like I said in a previous post. They're going to issue bonds, termed corona bonds. A perfect name that will mean the end of the EU currency. "German Chancellor Angela Merkel, backed by the leaders of Austria and the Netherlands, have said no. They have long opposed the issuance of debt at the EU level for fear that it would effectively mean their taxpayers are underwriting spending by poorer member states." Well, Germans aren;t Italians even if they're all Europeans.
""A perceived lack of solidarity in the worst peacetime crisis in living memory could be dynamite for the longer-term cohesion of the eurozone and the European Union," they wrote after the deal was announced."
Of course, America won't be helping because we'll be in our own recession and not buying as many European products. Heck, we're still looking for toilet paper. What a mess.
"Europe has a rescue package. But who's going to pay for its coronavirus recovery?"
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/10/business/europe-coronavirus-stimulus/index.html
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Not really. Fewer that make it to the top. All have a Bell distribution curve. If you look a scarcity only and not also at the value of the service, you have some serious issues ahead.
Well, good dribblers have more value to the team than do mosts scientists have to their companies. They earn more money for it. How much money would you pay the dribbler if he quit his job and went to work for Pfizer as a scientist?
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Today's news show 500 billion Euros to help. But German and other countries are refusing to pay for bonds like I said in a previous post. They're going to issue bonds, termed corona bonds. A perfect name that will mean the end of the EU currency. "German Chancellor Angela Merkel, backed by the leaders of Austria and the Netherlands, have said no. They have long opposed the issuance of debt at the EU level for fear that it would effectively mean their taxpayers are underwriting spending by poorer member states." Well, Germans aren;t Italians even if they're all Europeans.
""A perceived lack of solidarity in the worst peacetime crisis in living memory could be dynamite for the longer-term cohesion of the eurozone and the European Union," they wrote after the deal was announced."
Of course, America won't be helping because we'll be in our own recession and not buying as many European products. Heck, we're still looking for toilet paper. What a mess.
"Europe has a rescue package. But who's going to pay for its coronavirus recovery?"
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/10/business/europe-coronavirus-stimulus/index.html
Bart, why are you saying "no"? I thought you were for the European Union?
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Well, good dribblers have more value to the team than do mosts scientists have to their companies. They earn more money for it. How much money would you pay the dribbler if he quit his job and went to work for Pfizer as a scientist?
Oh I don't know about that. Scientist create new drugs that make billions for their companies. Scientists design new cars that make billions for their companies. Architects design new building that make billions for their companies.
I personally think sports figures are way over paid and to make up for this overpayment, you and I need to shell out big bucks just to watch a game.
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Oh I don't know about that. Scientist create new drugs that make billions for their companies. Scientists design new cars that make billions for their companies. Architects design new building that make billions for their companies.
I personally think sports figures are way over paid and to make up for this overpayment, you and I need to shell out big bucks just to watch a game.
Only top scientists and top architects. And they are rewarded over other scientists and architects just like the better dribblers are. If a scientist doesn't like his pay, let him practice dribbling.
Only an employer can know what a employee is worth to him. If they paid all their 1000 scientist as much as the best dribblers, they'd be out of business in a week since they could charge enough to offset their salaries. Also, the scientist doesn't have to take the job if he feels he's worth more. No one is twisting his arm. There's no way for you or the government to know what a person is worth in dollars. It's not a moral decision. It's based solely on economic value after all you're talking about salary, which is money. In any case, the free market decides. In Cuba, doctors make about $30 a day as decided by the government. Do you think that is fair?
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Oh I don't know about that. Scientist create new drugs that make billions for their companies. Scientists design new cars that make billions for their companies. Architects design new building that make billions for their companies.
I personally think sports figures are way over paid and to make up for this overpayment, you and I need to shell out big bucks just to watch a game.
Why are they overpaid? Would you be happy if your income was artificially reduced by some kind of government fiat so the people could get your services more cheaply? Sports figures sell tickets. Tickets generate cash. At one time, almost all the cash went to the billionaires ho owned the teams, but then sports unions were formed, and the players started to get serious money. Sports figures are simply entertainers, like movie stars, and they sell tickets. If you don't want to buy a ticket, you don't have to. It's no different than money generated by movie stars, whose basic function is to sell tickets.
This argument is most often heard about teachers -- but the fact is teaching is probably the easiest of the professions to get into, and requires the least amount of training (aside, perhaps, from the ministry.) (And understand that I'm distinguishing between professions and trades.) But why shouldn't a great teacher be paid as much as a great basketball player? Because the teacher isn't selling tickets, and had chosen to join a low-risk, good-reward profession.
I say jocks, and artists, and entrepreneurs should be able to get what the market will pay them. And if the market won't pay them anything, well, tough shit.
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Why are they overpaid? Would you be happy if your income was artificially reduced by some kind of government fiat so the people could get your services more cheaply? Sports figures sell tickets. Tickets generate cash. At one time, almost all the cash went to the billionaires ho owned the teams, but then sports unions were formed, and the players started to get serious money. Sports figures are simply entertainers, like movie stars, and they sell tickets. If you don't want to buy a ticket, you don't have to. It's no different than money generated by movie stars, whose basic function is to sell tickets.
This argument is most often heard about teachers -- but the fact is teaching is probably the easiest of the professions to get into, and requires the least amount of training (aside, perhaps, from the ministry.) (And understand that I'm distinguishing between professions and trades.) But why shouldn't a great teacher be paid as much as a great basketball player? Because the teacher isn't selling tickets, and had chosen to join a low-risk, good-reward profession.
I say jocks, and artists, and entrepreneurs should be able to get what the market will pay them. And if the market won't pay them anything, well, tough shit.
I'm kind of sorry that I brought this up by making that offhand comment earlier. I don't have anything against artists, sports figures, etc. raking it in. The money is there, why shouldn't they get a piece of the action. My wife is an artist and I think artists should make a lot more than they do. My original comment was only to bemoan the fact that our culture seems to value things inappropriately, but there's no big spreadsheet in the sky with all the correct formulas in it.
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I'm kind of sorry that I brought this up by making that offhand comment earlier. I don't have anything against artists, sports figures, etc. raking it in. The money is there, why shouldn't they get a piece of the action. My wife is an artist and I think artists should make a lot more than they do. My original comment was only to bemoan the fact that our culture seems to value things inappropriately, but there's no big spreadsheet in the sky with all the correct formulas in it.
The issue is what do you mean by value? The moment you put a price on it from either the payer's or the receiver's side, it becomes an economic value. Economic value is not equated with moral or ethical value. The two are different. Things of spiritual, moral and ethical value cannot be bought. They have no monetary value. Only services and products are bought and sold. Their economic values are determined by the market.
Also, who could determine which has greater value even from the standpoint of the market? Does a scientist working for 3M developing new glues have more value than a billionaire like Bloomberg who's developed a business that gives jobs to tens of thousands of people and help put food on the table for thousands more? Does a ball player who entertains millions of people and lifts their spirits during a virus outbreak deserve less than a teacher who instructs 100 children during a year? God gave everyone value. Who are we to decide that one person is more valuable than another when God loves us all and see us equally in His eyes?
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I'm kind of sorry that I brought this up by making that offhand comment earlier. I don't have anything against artists, sports figures, etc. raking it in. The money is there, why shouldn't they get a piece of the action. My wife is an artist and I think artists should make a lot more than they do. My original comment was only to bemoan the fact that our culture seems to value things inappropriately, but there's no big spreadsheet in the sky with all the correct formulas in it.
Don't regret it, it's an interesting discussion compared to some of the bullshit posted on this thread. In any case, I don't see why paying millions to sports figures is an inappropriate value, because I think "inappropriate" would basically apply to cheating or criminal activity. The Trump family tax cheating, for example, on which Trump's fortune is based. Totally inappropriate, and probably criminal, although the statute of limitations has run out on the criminal side. A great athlete, on the other hand, has probably spent thousands of hours honing his talent, to do that one thing, and people will pay money to see him do it. Fine with me, nobody is holding a gun to the ticket-buyers' head, and I don't spend more than about two hours a year watching sports and if pressed, couldn't name a single current baseball player. The only reason I know who Steph Curry is, I was watching a TV in a sidewalk Indian restaurant in LA and the sportscasters kept talking about "Curry," and I thought, "Hey, I'm eating some, and it's quite good." As far as artists are concerned, I think most of them make about what their art's worth, until you get fairly high up, when it becomes a con game used to separate philistines from their ill-gotten gains, which seems mildly funny to me, but not totally inappropriate. Besides, if Alan knows what he's talking about, and I'm uncertain about that, all that cash is going to turn into toilet paper anyway. God knows we need the toilet paper.
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The issue is what do you mean by value? The moment you put a price on it from either the payer's or the receiver's side, it becomes an economic value. Economic value is not equated with moral or ethical value. The two are different. Things of spiritual, moral and ethical value cannot be bought. They have no monetary value. Only services and products are bought and sold. Their economic values are determined by the market.
Also, who could determine which has greater value even from the standpoint of the market? Does a scientist working for 3M developing new glues have more value than a billionaire like Bloomberg who's developed a business that gives jobs to tens of thousands of people and help put food on the table for thousands more? Does a ball player who entertains millions of people and lifts their spirits during a virus outbreak deserve less than a teacher who instructs 100 children during a year? God gave everyone value. Who are we to decide that one person is more valuable than another when God loves us all and see us equally in His eyes?
I can tell you this much...when you are in emergency being kept alive by drugs developed by that scientist...the last thing of value on your mind will be that baseball player that strikes out way more often than hits a home run...but still manages to pull in $10m a year...plus another $50m / year advertising some made in China runners.
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I can tell you this much...when you are in emergency being kept alive by drugs developed by that scientist...the last thing of value on your mind will be that baseball player that strikes out way more often than hits a home run...but still manages to pull in $10m a year...plus another $50m / year advertising some made in China runners.
So on my deathbed, I'm going to be thinking how glad I am that the doctor is making more treating me? Maybe if he was making less I'd feel he was more dedicated to my health than just working to get a big paycheck. In any case in America, most doctors do pretty well for themselves. Compare that to Cuba where the government says they're only worth $30 a day. I'll take the free market.
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So on my deathbed, I'm going to be thinking how glad I am that the doctor is making more treating me? Maybe if he was making less I'd feel he was more dedicated to my health than just working to get a big paycheck. In any case in America, most doctors do pretty well for themselves. Compare that to Cuba where the government says they're only worth $30 a day. I'll take the free market.
I'm not talking about the doctor, I'm talking about the scientist making 60k that developed the drugs keeping you alive.
As far as Cuba goes...have you been there. I judge a countries quality of life by how much joy the people have every day. I've been to Cuba 8 times over the last 10 years, spent plenty of time imbedded with Cuban families and I can tell you, they enjoy life there. Much more so than the people I got to spend time with in the southern USA.
A good friend of mine and coworker has to keep working ( he's 71 now) in order to have his insurance pay for his wife's drugs. The guy needs two knew replacements, barely walks but cannot afford it as the wife's drugs take up all his works insurance.
In Cuba...all that is free for each citizen. Same with education...everyone has post secondary education. Cuba is one of the highest literate nation in the world.
I cut my finger in Cuba and ended up in emergency for stitches. Fast and free...Doctor even apologized for the cut ruining my vacation. Had a tooth cap come off once in Atlanta. Walked into the dentist...first thing they wanted before my name was my credit card.
Alan...there is more to life than money.
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I'm not talking about the doctor, I'm talking about the scientist making 60k that developed the drugs keeping you alive.
As far as Cuba goes...have you been there. I judge a countries quality of life by how much joy the people have every day. I've been to Cuba 8 times over the last 10 years, spent plenty of time imbedded with Cuban families and I can tell you, they enjoy life there. Much more so than the people I got to spend time with in the southern USA.
A good friend of mine and coworker has to keep working ( he's 71 now) in order to have his insurance pay for his wife's drugs. The guy needs two knew replacements, barely walks but cannot afford it as the wife's drugs take up all his works insurance.
In Cuba...all that is free for each citizen. Same with education...everyone has post secondary education. Cuba is one of the highest literate nation in the world.
I cut my finger in Cuba and ended up in emergency for stitches. Fast and free...Doctor even apologized for the cut ruining my vacation. Had a tooth cap come off once in Atlanta. Walked into the dentist...first thing they wanted before my name was my credit card.
Alan...there is more to life than money.
What good is literacy when you're not free to read what you want? And if you read what you're not suppose to, the government goons break your legs. But that's OK because they'll send you to the hospital where they'll stitch you up for free.
Yes. There's more to life than money.
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What good is literacy when you're not free to read what you want? And if you read what you're not suppose to, the government goons break your legs. But that's OK because they'll send you to the hospital where they'll stitch you up for free.
Yes. There's more to life than money.
This is the no politics thread.
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Too confusing. Two too many threads. :)
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OK, boys - one small light on the horizon:
The Times (UK) reporting that a vaccine against coronavirus could be ready as soon as September.
Sarah Gilbert, professor of vaccinology at Oxford University, told The Times she was “80 per cent confident” that the vaccine being developed by her team would work, with human trials due to begin in the next fortnight.
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-vaccine-could-be-ready-by-september-flmwl257x
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What good is literacy when you're not free to read what you want? And if you read what you're not suppose to, the government goons break your legs. But that's OK because they'll send you to the hospital where they'll stitch you up for free.
Yes. There's more to life than money.
Is this your personal experience or the highly influenced USA version? Yeh...totally free to read whatever your government wants you to read.
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A UK scientist at Oxford says her group is beginning human testing of a vaccine that she says she is 80% certain that it will work against the corona virus. I looked her up and she has quite the virus-developing history, and seems very much legit. The UK government has been talking about providing several tens of millions of dollars to begin manufacturing of the vaccine in advance of final trials, so that if it turns out to be safe and effective, it would be available immediately up the end of trials. She says if it works as she believes it will, it could become available in September. I would fly to the UK to get it.
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A UK scientist at Oxford says her group is beginning human testing of a vaccine that she says she is 80% certain that it will work against the corona virus. I looked her up and she has quite the virus-developing history, and seems very much legit. The UK government has been talking about providing several tens of millions of dollars to begin manufacturing of the vaccine in advance of final trials, so that if it turns out to be safe and effective, it would be available immediately up the end of trials. She says if it works as she believes it will, it could become available in September. I would fly to the UK to get it.
Sorry...no fly zone from us to uk.
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OTOH, I came across this depressing story out of South Korea about re-infection, or maybe re-lapsed https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/south-korea-coronavirus-covid19-reactivated-positive-1.5529066 (https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/south-korea-coronavirus-covid19-reactivated-positive-1.5529066).
I hope this is testing errors. People are sort of counting on post-infection immunity.
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I’m guessing that Alan Goldhammer could post updated info on this.
The Oxford vaccine, known as ChAdOx1, is not the only one at a hopeful stage. There are at least another five frontrunners including two US ones - one researched by Moderna (mRNA-1273), another by Inovio (funded by the Bill Gates’ foundation) and at least two in Germany.
I’m guessing that for her to be 80% confident indicates that its worked on the ferrets and macaques and they’ll soon be testing it on humans. Alan ?
Let's not get ahead of ourselves. Every researcher is coming out with their theory of how they can develop a vaccine. There's billions of dollars being made available and everyone wants to get their grants. Here's America's NIH National Institutes of Health emergency programs.
https://grants.nih.gov/policy/natural-disasters/corona-virus.htm
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The Times' story on the Oxford vaccine is behind a paywall. Here's a longer one from the Daily Mail.
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8209523/Oxford-expert-Coronavirus-vaccine-ready-September-80-likelihood-work.html
This woman has a really good history, but the main thing is SEPTEMBER. And it won't be no-fly in September, unless we're in the middle of the second wave, which we could be.
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As if we needed more bad news. It seems the federal government's covid-19 death count is omitting the many many deaths that occurred in nursing homes. Not intentionally, AFAIK, just due to a lack of reporting. And, NY City's death count includes only those who died in hospitals, yet emergency workers report removing "hundreds" of bodies from homes every day.
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As if we needed more bad news. It seems the federal government's covid-19 death count is omitting the many many deaths that occurred in nursing homes. Not intentionally, AFAIK, just due to a lack of reporting. And, NY City's death count includes only those who died in hospitals, yet emergency workers report removing "hundreds" of bodies from homes every day.
We'll never know the true counts...other than its quite a bit higher than the official counts.
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We'll never know the true counts...other than its quite a bit higher than the official counts.
Yea, the hospitals are being paid by the government for covid19 cases. So if someone dies of heart failure and they can say they had the virus, its a Covid 19 case and they get paid. Brix said just the other day they are being quite liberal in what they call covid 19 deaths. So yea the numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt , on both sides of the figures.
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Yea, the hospitals are being paid by the government for covid19 cases. So if someone dies of heart failure and they can say they had the virus, its a Covid 19 case and they get paid. Brix said just the other day they are being quite liberal in what they call covid 19 deaths. So yea the numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt , on both sides of the figures.
You think so? I've seen enough medical resources say otherwise...they are totally swamped with Covid deaths. These medical personnel surely must know.
If you want to think the actual numbers are less than being reported, I guess you can...but I don't live in your rose coloured glass world. My thinking is we have way more cases of Covid caused deaths than what is reported. I highly doubt a person that dies out of the hospital would be tested for Covid given we still have a lack of testing going on on live people.
And yes, there will be deaths as a result of Covid overrunning the medical system from things like heart attacks which Covid has indirectly contributed to which are also not counted.
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You think so? I've seen enough medical resources say otherwise...they are totally swamped with Covid deaths. These medical personnel surely must know.
If you want to think the actual numbers are less than being reported, I guess you can...but I don't live in your rose coloured glass world. My thinking is we have way more cases of Covid caused deaths than what is reported. I highly doubt a person that dies out of the hospital would be tested for Covid given we still have a lack of testing going on on live people.
And yes, there will be deaths as a result of Covid overrunning the medical system from things like heart attacks which Covid has indirectly contributed to which are also not counted.
My point was, which seem to whoosh right over your head, is that the numbers can be suspect on both sides. The hospitals do have a financial incentive in listing a death as Covid 19.
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My point was, which seem to whoosh right over your head, is that the numbers can be suspect on both sides. The hospitals do have a financial incentive in listing a death as Covid 19.
I am sure that is true for uninsured patients. I don't know whether private insurance or Medicare would pay more for treatment of the actual cause of death than COVID-19 reimbursment. Probably depends.
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My point was, which seem to whoosh right over your head, is that the numbers can be suspect on both sides. The hospitals do have a financial incentive in listing a death as Covid 19.
Seems like you just have a hard time being civil...enough of your whoosh bullshit.
Here are a couple statements that point towards under recording of actual Covid deaths.
"According to Levine, the number of deaths at home in New York City has grown 10-fold since the end of last week, even as hospitalizations for trauma and other emergencies have dropped to nearly nothing.
"Normally we have 20 to 25 deaths at home and now we are at 200 to 215,” Levine said, explaining that coronavirus would likely be the only way to explain such a spike.
Mayor Bill de Blasio said Tuesday he assumed the “vast majority” of the recent at-home deaths are coronavirus-related."
And in Italy
"In Nembro the almost deserted streets, the absent traffic, a strange silence is sometimes interrupted by the siren of an ambulance that carries with it the anxiety and worry that fill the hearts of all in these weeks. In Nembro every member of the community continuously receives news that he never wanted to hear, every day we lose people who were part of our lives and our community. Nembro, in the province of Bergamo, is the municipality most affected by Covid-19 in relation to the population. We do not know exactly how many people have been infected, but we know that the number of deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 is 31. We are two physicists: one who became an entrepreneur in the health sector, the other a mayor, in close contact with a very cohesive territory, where we know each other very well. We noticed that something in these official numbers did not come back right, and we decided - together - to check. We looked at the average of the deaths in the municipality of previous years, in the period January - March. Nembro should have had - under normal conditions - about 35 deaths. 158 people were registered dead this year by the municipal offices. That is 123 more than the average. Not 31 more, as it should have been according to the official numbers of the coronavirus epidemic."
Any actual data that backs up your view of the corrupt medical system forging Covid-19'deaths for money?
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Seems like you just have a hard time being civil...enough of your whoosh bullshit.
Here are a couple statements that point towards under recording of actual Covid deaths.
"According to Levine, the number of deaths at home in New York City has grown 10-fold since the end of last week, even as hospitalizations for trauma and other emergencies have dropped to nearly nothing.
"Normally we have 20 to 25 deaths at home and now we are at 200 to 215,” Levine said, explaining that coronavirus would likely be the only way to explain such a spike.
Mayor Bill de Blasio said Tuesday he assumed the “vast majority” of the recent at-home deaths are coronavirus-related."
And in Italy
"In Nembro the almost deserted streets, the absent traffic, a strange silence is sometimes interrupted by the siren of an ambulance that carries with it the anxiety and worry that fill the hearts of all in these weeks. In Nembro every member of the community continuously receives news that he never wanted to hear, every day we lose people who were part of our lives and our community. Nembro, in the province of Bergamo, is the municipality most affected by Covid-19 in relation to the population. We do not know exactly how many people have been infected, but we know that the number of deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 is 31. We are two physicists: one who became an entrepreneur in the health sector, the other a mayor, in close contact with a very cohesive territory, where we know each other very well. We noticed that something in these official numbers did not come back right, and we decided - together - to check. We looked at the average of the deaths in the municipality of previous years, in the period January - March. Nembro should have had - under normal conditions - about 35 deaths. 158 people were registered dead this year by the municipal offices. That is 123 more than the average. Not 31 more, as it should have been according to the official numbers of the coronavirus epidemic."
Any actual data that backs up your view of the corrupt medical system forging Covid-19'deaths for money?
And it seems you have a hard time understanding simple statements.
So lets look at the statements that pertain to your original claim, in the US.
The quotes you posted say nothing about these at home deaths being not labled as Covid 19. regardless of where you die you stiil need a death cert and a cause of death. also the claim is that the only reason more peolpe dies at home may be due to the virus. Clearly that can be true, but it is also true that do to the restrictions on people being outside the home...well more people are at home.
Now CDC has quidelines that state you can list Covid 19 as a cause of death if you suspect they died with symtoms that are consistant with covid 19.
So, some hospital has an uninsured patient that dies. Without covid 19 as a cause of death they eat the cost of caring for that patient. But if you list Covid 19 as a cause of death even if the patient has not been tested but shows symtoms of of Covid 19, and you assume they have it, you get paid by the Goverment.
I'm not saying its forgery, heck the goverment issued guidlines on how to do it. But there is a financal incentive never the less.
“If COVID–19 played a role in the death, this condition should be specified on the death certificate. In many cases, it is likely that it will be the [underlying cause of death], as it can lead to various life-threatening conditions, such as pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS),” the guidance says. “In these cases, COVID-19 should be reported on the lowest line used in Part I with the other conditions to which it gave rise listed on the lines above it.”
The CDC advises that officials should report deaths in which the patient tested positive for COVID-19 — or, if a test isn’t available, “if the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty.” It further indicates that if a “definitive diagnosis cannot be made … but it is suspected or likely … it is acceptable to report COVID-19 on a death certificate as ‘probable’ or ‘presumed.'”
There was renewed attention given to the theory of the death toll being inflated after Dr. Deborah Birx, coordinator of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, said during an April 7 press conference that “if someone dies with COVID-19, we are counting that as a COVID-19 death.”
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And it seems you have a hard time understanding simple statements.
So lets look at the statements that pertain to your original claim, in the US.
The quotes you posted say nothing about these at home deaths being not labled as Covid 19. regardless of where you die you stiil need a death cert and a cause of death. also the claim is that the only reason more peolpe dies at home may be due to the virus. Clearly that can be true, but it is also true that do to the restrictions on people being outside the home...well more people are at home.
Now CDC has quidelines that state you can list Covid 19 as a cause of death if you suspect they died with symtoms that are consistant with covid 19.
So, some hospital has an uninsured patient that dies. Without covid 19 as a cause of death they eat the cost of caring for that patient. But if you list Covid 19 as a cause of death even if the patient has not been tested but shows symtoms of of Covid 19, and you assume they have it, you get paid by the Goverment.
I'm not saying its forgery, heck the goverment issued guidlines on how to do it. But there is a financal incentive never the less.
“If COVID–19 played a role in the death, this condition should be specified on the death certificate. In many cases, it is likely that it will be the [underlying cause of death], as it can lead to various life-threatening conditions, such as pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS),” the guidance says. “In these cases, COVID-19 should be reported on the lowest line used in Part I with the other conditions to which it gave rise listed on the lines above it.”
The CDC advises that officials should report deaths in which the patient tested positive for COVID-19 — or, if a test isn’t available, “if the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty.” It further indicates that if a “definitive diagnosis cannot be made … but it is suspected or likely … it is acceptable to report COVID-19 on a death certificate as ‘probable’ or ‘presumed.'”
There was renewed attention given to the theory of the death toll being inflated after Dr. Deborah Birx, coordinator of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, said during an April 7 press conference that “if someone dies with COVID-19, we are counting that as a COVID-19 death.”
Still being an ass I see. Well here is the title of the article...hope that clears things up.
Coronavirus death toll in US likely worse than numbers say
They are not testing corpses brought in for Covid-19...so all these deaths away from the hospital are not tallied.
And how many of these deaths by other reason with Covid-19 infection can be attributed to the medical system so overrun dealing with Covid-19 that the person coming in with a heart attack just didn't have the care to save their life. Now should we count that as a Covid-19 caused death.
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https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/social-media-posts-make-baseless-claim-on-covid-19-death-toll/
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Still being an ass I see. Well here is the title of the article...hope that clears things up.
Coronavirus death toll in US likely worse than numbers say
They are not testing corpses brought in for Covid-19...so all these deaths away from the hospital are not tallied.
And how many of these deaths by other reason with Covid-19 infection can be attributed to the medical system so overrun dealing with Covid-19 that the person coming in with a heart attack just didn't have the care to save their life. Now should we count that as a Covid-19 caused death.
I see you are still being obtuse.
Did the fact as I point out eariler that you dont need to be tested to have covid 19 listed as a cause of death, somehow escape you?
If you want to play dueling news story headlines we can do that if you choose, but its pretty pointless. Your headline has one very important modifer...the word "likely"...which means the story nor the headline can be proven. Its opinion. Now there is nothing generally wrong with opinion. But lets call it what it is.
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https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/social-media-posts-make-baseless-claim-on-covid-19-death-toll/
Yes...again the money quote away from the salacious headline:
"The repeatedly shared posts — citing the user’s purported recollection of a woman’s claim on a “live broadcast” — argue that “the state” has instructed “that anyone who didnt die by a gun shot wound or car accident” should be “listed as covid 19 victims.” It claims “the numbers are a lie” and calls for an investigation."
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And the next sentence:
"We attempted to contact the user responsible for the original post, to no avail, so we don’t know what “state” was being referenced. But there’s no evidence that any state has adopted a policy to classify all deaths, regardless of the individual circumstances, as being related to COVID-19."
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I see you are still being obtuse.
Did the fact as I point out eariler that you dont need to be tested to have covid 19 listed as a cause of death, somehow escape you?
If you want to play dueling news story headlines we can do that if you choose, but its pretty pointless. Your headline has one very important modifer...the word "likely"...which means the story nor the headline can be proven. Its opinion. Now there is nothing generally wrong with opinion. But lets call it what it is.
What about the facts of the huge spikes of home deaths in both New York and Italy over the averages from previous years. What do you believe caused these massive spikes? None of which are labeled Covid-19.
Yes, let's call it what it is.
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And the next sentence:
"We attempted to contact the user responsible for the original post, to no avail, so we don’t know what “state” was being referenced. But there’s no evidence that any state has adopted a policy to classify all deaths, regardless of the individual circumstances, as being related to COVID-19."
Again a VERY inportant modifier in the above quote...no one in this thread ever suggested any such thing. Which makes the entire article and the resulting quote irrelevant
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And the next sentence:
"We attempted to contact the user responsible for the original post, to no avail, so we don’t know what “state” was being referenced. But there’s no evidence that any state has adopted a policy to classify all deaths, regardless of the individual circumstances, as being related to COVID-19."
Yes valid information that totally puts the entire post in question. Lots of crazy conspiracy people running around throwing out garbage...and just as many eating it all up.
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Factcheck.org must be desperate for something to do to comment on an absurd suggestion appearing on social media of all places “that anyone who didnt die by a gun shot wound or car accident” should be “listed as covid 19 victims.” Was their no White House briefing today?
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What about the facts of the huge spikes of home deaths in both New York and Italy over the averages from previous years. What do you believe caused these massive spikes? None of which are labeled Covid-19.
Yes, let's call it what it is.
If you have evidence that NO home deaths in New York have been listed as Covid 19, please post that evidence. If its just your opinion clearly state it is just that. My opinion is some of these at home deaths are occuring because people are stuck at home now. As for Italy, that not my concern right now.
Now I point you to this passage from the CDC guidlines for death certs in the time of covid 19. Notice the circumstances of the fictional death.
Scenario III: An 86-year-old female with an
unconfirmed case of COVID–19
An 86-year-old female passed away at home. Her husband
reported that she was nonambulatory after suffering an ischemic
stroke 3 years ago. He stated that 5 days prior, she developed a
high fever and severe cough after being exposed to an ill family
member who subsequently was diagnosed with COVID–19.
Despite his urging, she refused to go to the hospital, even when
her breathing became more labored and temperature escalated.
She was unresponsive that morning and her husband phoned
emergency medical services (EMS). Upon EMS arrival, the
patient was pulseless and apneic. Her husband stated that he
and his wife had advanced directives and that she was not to be
resuscitated. After consulting with medical command, she was
pronounced dead and the coroner was notified.
Comment: Although no testing was done, the coroner
determined that the likely UCOD was COVID–19 given the
patient’s symptoms and exposure to an infected individual.
Therefore, COVID–19 was reported on the lowest line used
in Part I. Her ischemic stroke was considered a factor that
contributed to her death but was not a part of the direct causal
sequence in Part I, so it was reported in Part II
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If you have evidence that NO home deaths in New York have been listed as Covid 19, please post that evidence. If its just your opinion clearly state it is just that. My opinion is some of these at home deaths are occuring because people are stuck at home now. As for Italy, that not my concern right now.
Now I point you to this passage from the CDC guidlines for death certs in the time of covid 19. Notice the circumstances of the fictional death.
Scenario III: An 86-year-old female with an
unconfirmed case of COVID–19
An 86-year-old female passed away at home. Her husband
reported that she was nonambulatory after suffering an ischemic
stroke 3 years ago. He stated that 5 days prior, she developed a
high fever and severe cough after being exposed to an ill family
member who subsequently was diagnosed with COVID–19.
Despite his urging, she refused to go to the hospital, even when
her breathing became more labored and temperature escalated.
She was unresponsive that morning and her husband phoned
emergency medical services (EMS). Upon EMS arrival, the
patient was pulseless and apneic. Her husband stated that he
and his wife had advanced directives and that she was not to be
resuscitated. After consulting with medical command, she was
pronounced dead and the coroner was notified.
Comment: Although no testing was done, the coroner
determined that the likely UCOD was COVID–19 given the
patient’s symptoms and exposure to an infected individual.
Therefore, COVID–19 was reported on the lowest line used
in Part I. Her ischemic stroke was considered a factor that
contributed to her death but was not a part of the direct causal
sequence in Part I, so it was reported in Part II
Craig you appear to be a smart guy that is just pigheaded. Do you really believe the big spikes of home deaths are all caused by other factors and have been tallied as Civid-19 deaths. The case you pointed out is a very good assumption given how infectious Covid is and the symptoms the person had...but do you really think all those cases go through such a diagnoses when there are stacks of corpses already in line.
I highly doubt it...and so does the CDC which fear the under tally to be quite large.
But believe what you like...I know there is no changing your mind.
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Craig you appear to be a smart guy that is just pigheaded. Do you really believe the big spikes of home deaths are all caused by other factors and have been tallied as Civid-19 deaths. The case you pointed out is a very good assumption given how infectious Covid is and the symptoms the person had...but do you really think all those cases go through such a diagnoses when there are stacks of corpses already in line.
I highly doubt it...and so does the CDC which fear the under tally to be quite large.
But believe what you like...I know there is no changing your mind.
Are you even reading the words I'm writing or are you just in denial?
I said I believe SOME might be caused by other factors. Notice the word SOME. I even underlined called it out in my post.
Someone MUST fill out a death cert for everyone who dies in the U.S. Thats a Federal law. So are you suggestiing they are just making something up?
And my other point, which I made twice, is that the numbers on both sides...over and under reporting... might be suspect and we should take them with a grain of salt.
Why should my mind be changed?
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I said I believe SOME might be caused by other factors. Notice the word SOME. I even underlined called it out in my post.
Someone MUST fill out a death cert for everyone who dies in the U.S. Thats a Federal law. So are you suggestiing they are just making something up?
And my other point, which I made twice, is that the numbers on both sides...over and under reporting... might be suspect and we should take them with a grain of salt.
Why should my mind be changed?
Let's concede the numbers won't be perfect. What do you think the margin of error will be?
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A UK scientist at Oxford says her group is beginning human testing of a vaccine that she says she is 80% certain that it will work against the corona virus. I looked her up and she has quite the virus-developing history, and seems very much legit. The UK government has been talking about providing several tens of millions of dollars to begin manufacturing of the vaccine in advance of final trials, so that if it turns out to be safe and effective, it would be available immediately up the end of trials. She says if it works as she believes it will, it could become available in September. I would fly to the UK to get it.
It's quite doubtful that they will have the necessary safety data to approve a vaccine in that short a period. This lab as others has a good proof of concept but they have to assess that neutralizing antibodies are produced in sufficient amount to give immunity. The second issue is what level of safety is being assessed. The statistical rule of three is in play here. You need three times the number in the trial to get a good statistical sample. If there is a rare adverse event of 1 in 10,000 (this has happened with vaccines) you need 30,000 people in the trial. Now maybe it's decided that this is a true health emergency and a 5000 patient trial is OK. This is really rolling the dice. Some of these approaches that are being tried out right now have never been in humans before. I think the Oxford group had a vaccine for a couple other viruses when I looked at the application for the trial.
I would note there is a German company that is also scaling things up with a goal of early approval. Their approach is the same as the one Moderna, a US biotech company is using and who were the first to start a trial.
I might be wrong, but I think J&J has the best overall approach to vaccine design and the manufacturing capacity to produce at scale. We'll see.
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Having just read some of the posts on the last two pages, I think it's time to exit. It appears that nobody is interested in science at this point but just hurling invectives at or across one another. This defeats the aim of the thread. I'll leave it to all of you to find your information elsewhere as I'm out of here and won't be providing further updates.
For the record, the real number to focus on is the mortality rate as a percentage of infected individuals. the absolute number of deaths doesn't mean much if you don't have the denominator. Until mass blood testing for antibodies is done, the latter number will never be known. Even if deaths are being under counted it's still possible that SARS-CoV-2 is worse than the average seasonal flu but maybe in line with the 1957 Hong Kong epidemic.
Have fun talking among yourselves; I've got my daily newsletter on advances to get out.
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You think so? I've seen enough medical resources say otherwise...they are totally swamped with Covid deaths. These medical personnel surely must know.
If you want to think the actual numbers are less than being reported, I guess you can...but I don't live in your rose coloured glass world. My thinking is we have way more cases of Covid caused deaths than what is reported. I highly doubt a person that dies out of the hospital would be tested for Covid given we still have a lack of testing going on on live people.
And yes, there will be deaths as a result of Covid overrunning the medical system from things like heart attacks which Covid has indirectly contributed to which are also not counted.
Are the regular flu statistics right or wrong? Or are there more deaths than being reported for the same reason?
In any case, here are the statistics for regular flu. CDC estimates that the burden of illness in the US during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza.
So far, Covid-19 statistics include: 532,092 cases 20,562 deaths to date. Of course it's not over. And certainly isolation has greatly lowered the number.
Arguing that there are some "hidden" deaths from Covid also means there are similar "hidden" deaths for regular flu. So those numbers have to be increased as well to make statistical comparisons. It seems like you're looking for additional deaths to justify the shutdown of the economy just in case the final count turns out lower than regular flu. Because everyone's going to ask whether we over -reacted. This is why Sweden's more relatively lackadaisical attitude is important. It will show whether they were right or not in taking a more laissez faire attitude.
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Having just read some of the posts on the last two pages, I think it's time to exit.
I'm just catching up this evening, myself. I don't yet want to pull the metaphorical plug, but . . .
It appears that nobody is interested in science at this point but just hurling invectives at or across one another. This defeats the aim of the thread.
Actually, I think "nobody" is an overstatement. A few tendentious posters seem to be using this thread to pursue bilateral arguments―or provoke new ones. Nothing wrong with disagreement, per se, but even to the extent that these pissing matches arguably can be squeezed into the stated theme of COVID-19 science and damage limitation, I don't see how the repetitive back-and-forth offers much information that might be interesting to third parties (i.e., the rest of us).
I'd like to see these heated disputes moved to the playpen thread or, even better, transferred to private message exchanges rather than inflicting them on everyone.
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Let's concede the numbers won't be perfect. What do you think the margin of error will be?
I don’t think we will ever know for sure, but it would not surprise me thats it’s + - 20%
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I'm just catching up this evening, myself. I don't yet want to pull the metaphorical plug, but . . .
Actually, I think "nobody" is an overstatement. A few tendentious posters seem to be using this thread to pursue bilateral arguments―or provoke new ones. Nothing wrong with disagreement, per se, but even to the extent that these pissing matches arguably can be squeezed into the stated theme of COVID-19 science and damage limitation, I don't see how the repetitive back-and-forth offers much information that might be interesting to third parties (i.e., the rest of us).
I'd like to see these heated disputes moved to the playpen thread or, even better, transferred to private message exchanges rather than inflicting them on everyone.
I’ll spare you guys and move on. Sorry
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Seems like you just have a hard time being civil...enough of your whoosh bullshit.
Here are a couple statements that point towards under recording of actual Covid deaths.
"According to Levine, the number of deaths at home in New York City has grown 10-fold since the end of last week, even as hospitalizations for trauma and other emergencies have dropped to nearly nothing.
"Normally we have 20 to 25 deaths at home and now we are at 200 to 215,” Levine said, explaining that coronavirus would likely be the only way to explain such a spike.
Mayor Bill de Blasio said Tuesday he assumed the “vast majority” of the recent at-home deaths are coronavirus-related."
And in Italy
"In Nembro the almost deserted streets, the absent traffic, a strange silence is sometimes interrupted by the siren of an ambulance that carries with it the anxiety and worry that fill the hearts of all in these weeks. In Nembro every member of the community continuously receives news that he never wanted to hear, every day we lose people who were part of our lives and our community. Nembro, in the province of Bergamo, is the municipality most affected by Covid-19 in relation to the population. We do not know exactly how many people have been infected, but we know that the number of deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 is 31. We are two physicists: one who became an entrepreneur in the health sector, the other a mayor, in close contact with a very cohesive territory, where we know each other very well. We noticed that something in these official numbers did not come back right, and we decided - together - to check. We looked at the average of the deaths in the municipality of previous years, in the period January - March. Nembro should have had - under normal conditions - about 35 deaths. 158 people were registered dead this year by the municipal offices. That is 123 more than the average. Not 31 more, as it should have been according to the official numbers of the coronavirus epidemic."
Any actual data that backs up your view of the corrupt medical system forging Covid-19'deaths for money?
I didn't realize the Mayor DeBlasio was also the Medical Examiner. First off, when someone dies in their home, someone knowledgeable has to write a death certificate. There's also an investigation to make sure there was no foul play. So why doesn't the mayor direct his Medical Examiner's office, which is among the world's finest, to do an investigation instead of playing politics?
In any case, how do you know that more people died at home because of Covid? Maybe they died of other diseases at home because they weren't going to the hospital as they would have under normal circumstances before Covid. Almost all elective surgery was cancelled by hospitals after about mid-March. Many other treatment, tests, and procedures that people need were also put off. So people stayed home and died. Also, where I might want to go to a hospital under normal circumstances, I may have not gone so not to expose myself to the Covid virus that was being treated so extensively. These and other reasons could account for the higher death rate at home, not necessarily Covid. Until this is investigated, I wouldn't trust
Mayor De Blasio who probably came up with this statistic while working out in the gym that he goes to every day.
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This is the problem when everybody becomes an expert and starts questioning the actual experts, or not as much questioning but doubting because their google research told them otherwise.
Regarding the flu, the answer is quite simple: those deaths are spread over the entire US, over many months. With Covid there are many death concentrated over a short period of time, mostly localized to specific areas.
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Are the regular flu statistics right or wrong? Or are there more deaths than being reported for the same reason?
In any case, here are the statistics for regular flu. CDC estimates that the burden of illness in the US during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza.
So far, Covid-19 statistics include: 532,092 cases 20,562 deaths to date. Of course it's not over. And certainly isolation has greatly lowered the number.
Arguing that there are some "hidden" deaths from Covid also means there are similar "hidden" deaths for regular flu. So those numbers have to be increased as well to make statistical comparisons. It seems like you're looking for additional deaths to justify the shutdown of the economy just in case the final count turns out lower than regular flu. Because everyone's going to ask whether we over -reacted. This is why Sweden's more relatively lackadaisical attitude is important. It will show whether they were right or not in taking a more laissez faire attitude.
I don't believe we are comparing to the regular flu...at least I'm not. I was just pointing out that the death toll is quite a bit different for Covid deaths than what is officially tallied. I've shown two cases in both New York and Italy where the at home death numbers have gone up dramatically during the Covid crisis and these deaths for the majority of them are not tallied as Covid-19 deaths.
You seem to be hung up on comparing to regular flu deaths. Who cares about that...with Covid it spreads more rapidly, it kills more efficiently and we have no vaccine or cure for it.
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In any case, how do you know that more people died at home because of Covid? Maybe they died of other diseases at home because they weren't going to the hospital as they would have under normal circumstances before Covid. Almost all elective surgery was cancelled by hospitals after about mid-March. Many other treatment, tests, and procedures that people need were also put off. So people stayed home and died. Also, where I might want to go to a hospital under normal circumstances, I may have not gone so not to expose myself to the Covid virus that was being treated so extensively. These and other reasons could account for the higher death rate at home, not necessarily Covid. Until this is investigated, I wouldn't trust
Mayor De Blasio who probably came up with this statistic while working out in the gym that he goes to every day.
Same issue if they died directly because of Covid infections or they died because the medical system was overrun dealing with Covid. One is a direct cause of death...the other an indirect that could have been prevented if Covid-19 was not around.
Didn't we discuss this many days ago when you insisted on knowing why we needed to isolate and bring the curve down...well it is exactly for the reason you stated above...unfortunately New York did not bring that curve down and we are seeing the results.
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This is the problem when everybody becomes an expert and starts questioning the actual experts, or not as much questioning but doubting because their google research told them otherwise.
Regarding the flu, the answer is quite simple: those deaths are spread over the entire US, over many months. With Covid there are many death concentrated over a short period of time, mostly localized to specific areas.
Until this is all over, you can't determine just how much damage and death policies have caused. Sweden took a different route regarding isolation, much less stringent. Wuhan is just starting back up economically after apparently shutting down the whole area. Elsewhere in the world, in between measures were taken. Let's compare results later to see the differences. It will be very informative in facing similar pandemics in the future.
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I didn't realize the Mayor DeBlasio was also the Medical Examiner. First off, when someone dies in their home, someone knowledgeable has to write a death certificate. There's also an investigation to make sure there was no foul play. So why doesn't the mayor direct his Medical Examiner's office, which is among the world's finest, to do an investigation instead of playing politics?
In any case, how do you know that more people died at home because of Covid? Maybe they died of other diseases at home because they weren't going to the hospital as they would have under normal circumstances before Covid. Almost all elective surgery was cancelled by hospitals after about mid-March. Many other treatment, tests, and procedures that people need were also put off. So people stayed home and died. Also, where I might want to go to a hospital under normal circumstances, I may have not gone so not to expose myself to the Covid virus that was being treated so extensively. These and other reasons could account for the higher death rate at home, not necessarily Covid. Until this is investigated, I wouldn't trust
Mayor De Blasio who probably came up with this statistic while working out in the gym that he goes to every day.
You know, it's sometimes impossible to stay much more than Chez did in his post. The at-home deaths rise from 25 to 200, and what, with an epidemic raging outside, you think they're falling down the stairs? New York at this point is burying unclaimed bodies in trenches in the potter's field, you think that's because they're bored with regular burials? Try to take a break from your ideologically based truths, and take a look at the world as it is.
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You know, it's sometimes impossible to stay much more than Chez did in his post. The at-home deaths rise from 25 to 200, and what, with an epidemic raging outside, you think they're falling down the stairs? New York at this point is burying unclaimed bodies in trenches in the potter's field, you think that's because they're bored with regular burials? Try to take a break from your ideologically based truths, and take a look at the world as it is.
I can't respond to your political point or Jeremy will ban me for making a political point. If you want me to respond, take your post to the other thread.
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Based on this type of visualization: https://lnkd.in/eiHE3gG
I represented total deaths (X) vs daily deaths (Y) per million inhabitants for some countries caused by COVID-19, using log scale on both axis.
The plot has visual interpretations:
- Countries still in an early stage in controlling the disease (UK, US, Germany?) show a rectilinear trend since daily deaths grow at roughly the same rate as total deaths.
- Plots getting close to a vertical asymptote correspond to countries managing to control the spread and effects of the coronavirus (see China, S. Korea?, Italy or Spain)
- In the same ways plots reaching higher points in the X or Y axis correspond to countries with more daily and total deaths per inhabitant. Here Spain is unfortunately the current 'winner' on both axis.
(http://guillermoluijk.com/misc/venciendocoronavirus.png)
Regards
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Same issue if they died directly because of Covid infections or they died because the medical system was overrun dealing with Covid. One is a direct cause of death...the other an indirect that could have been prevented if Covid-19 was not around.
Didn't we discuss this many days ago when you insisted on knowing why we needed to isolate and bring the curve down...well it is exactly for the reason you stated above...unfortunately New York did not bring that curve down and we are seeing the results.
You're assuming that the people died at home because they didn't get treatment at the hospital. But they may have died at the hospital in any case. This is from the following link posted elsewhere. Until there's an examination of the actual causes assuming a couple of hundred dead per day at home from Covid is just speculation. I assume there are some. But that might be an inflated number.
"An enormous change is that emergency departments are almost empty of non-coronavirus cases. People don’t seem to be breaking their legs, having strokes or shooting one another as often as normal. That’s partly because fewer people are outdoors, but it also appears that some families prefer to have an aging parent die quietly at home rather than go to a hospital at this time."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-hospitals-bronx.html
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Based on this type of visualization: https://lnkd.in/eiHE3gG
I represented total deaths (X) vs daily deaths (Y) per million inhabitants for some countries caused by COVID-19, using log scale on both axis.
The plot has two visual interpretations:
- Plots getting close to a vertical asymptote correspond to countries managing to control the spread and effects of the coronavirus (see China, S. Korea?, Italy or Spain)
- In the same ways plots reaching higher points in the X or Y axis correspond to countries with more daily and total deaths per inhabitant. Here Spain is unfortunately the current 'winner'.
(http://guillermoluijk.com/misc/venciendocoronavirus.png)
Regards
I'm sure your graphs are accurate based on the figures you received. But frankly, I don't believe the Chinese statistics. Millions of people and they dropped to almost zero? Something doesn't smell right. Are they lying? Do they have an secret antidote? If they are accurate, what are they doing to get results that no one is duplicating?
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I'm sure your graphs are accurate based on the figures you received. But frankly, I don't believe the Chinese statistics. Millions of people and they dropped to almost zero? Something doesn't smell right. Are they lying? Do they have an secret antidote? If they are accurate, what are they doing to get results that no one is duplicating?
I wouldn't put their figures in the same basket as other countries actually. Anyway we must think China is a huge country and Wuhan was locked down very efficiently. If we just considered the Wuhan region or Hubei city, the rates would be very different (they would basically move up and right in the graph).
Regards
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Having just read some of the posts on the last two pages, I think it's time to exit. It appears that nobody is interested in science at this point but just hurling invectives at or across one another. This defeats the aim of the thread. I'll leave it to all of you to find your information elsewhere as I'm out of here and won't be providing further updates.
For the record, the real number to focus on is the mortality rate as a percentage of infected individuals. the absolute number of deaths doesn't mean much if you don't have the denominator. Until mass blood testing for antibodies is done, the latter number will never be known. Even if deaths are being under counted it's still possible that SARS-CoV-2 is worse than the average seasonal flu but maybe in line with the 1957 Hong Kong epidemic.
Have fun talking among yourselves; I've got my daily newsletter on advances to get out.
Sorry to hear it but I understand.
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Finnish researchers released a dramatic video how someone coughing in a store could spread the virus droplets in one isle and across the isles.
The video is available on Spiegel site and text in English below. Spread of virus droplets in a store (https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/breitet-sich-das-coronavirus-durch-husten-aus-a-87bd4477-5663-4945-9cfe-4c17f243ad1b)
Researchers in Finland have released a shocking simulation that apparently shows how respiratory droplets from just one cough in a grocery store can linger in the air for “several minutes” and travel across two aisles, possibly infecting other shoppers nearby with coronavirus.
Aalto University, the Finnish Meteorological Institute, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland and the University of Helsinki studied how aerosolized particles released from the respiratory tract when coughing, sneezing or even talking flow through the air. Preliminary results indicate that tiny particles carrying the coronavirus can linger in the air for longer than originally thought, reinforcing the importance of completely avoiding crowded spaces, or at the very least following social distancing guidelines.
https://www.kron4.com/health/coronavirus/see-it-simulation-shows-how-cough-can-spread-coronavirus-in-grocery-stores/
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I wouldn't put their figures in the same basket as other countries actually. Anyway we must think China is a huge country and Wuhan was locked down very efficiently. If we just considered the Wuhan region or Hubei city, the rates would be very different (they would basically move up and right in the graph).
Regards
OK Let's discount China. what about Korea? I can't tell from the log chart. Are the numbers going down or just staying at a low level? What are they doing to accomplish that. It seems very impressive. We should be able to learn something from them.
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Finnish researchers released a dramatic video how someone coughing in a store could spread the virus droplets in one isle and across the isles.
The video is available on Spiegel site and text in English below. Spread of virus droplets in a store (https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/breitet-sich-das-coronavirus-durch-husten-aus-a-87bd4477-5663-4945-9cfe-4c17f243ad1b)
https://www.kron4.com/health/coronavirus/see-it-simulation-shows-how-cough-can-spread-coronavirus-in-grocery-stores/
Les, it was in German so I couldn't understand the narrator. Did he indicate that the virus itself was alive during the whole few minutes? Have they tested to see if people actually get infected by breathing air from so far away? Or does there have to be a certain amount of viral particles that land in your nose or mouth for it to take root?
The other things is that the flow indicated to me that due to the HVAC system and its air flow or an open door, how fast and where it goes would be very dependent on those things. Did he describe how the air distribution was working in the space? It seem to flow in one direction mainly.
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Les, it was in German so I couldn't understand the narrator. Did he indicate that the virus itself was alive during the whole few minutes? Have they tested to see if people actually get infected by breathing air from so far away? Or does there have to be a certain amount of viral particles that land in your nose or mouth for it to take root?
The other things is that the flow indicated to me that due to the HVAC system and its air flow or an open door, how fast and where it goes would be very dependent on those things. Did he describe how the air distribution was working in the space? It seem to flow in one direction mainly.
The main take is the visual aspect of it how can the droplet cloud spread within an isle and across the isles. The narrator said (as it was visible in the animation) that the amount of droplets further from the source is diminished and the smaller amount of droplets may be not enough to infect others, but the possibility remains. Also that further experiments and studies are needed.
Obviously, the height of the isles is also important in the horizontal movement of the droplets. Wearing a mask may further mitigate the effect of droplets coming from the neighbouring isles.
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here is all all-American image:
(https://cdn.prod.www.spiegel.de/images/a1921804-c3a5-4508-b826-aad93692d7dd_w948_r2.11_fpx44.98_fpy58.45.jpg)
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OK Let's discount China. what about Korea?
What are they doing to accomplish that. It seems very impressive. We should be able to learn something from them.
1/ Social distancing, contact tracing, personal hygiene
2/ A highly effective triage and treatment system developed as a result of the experience of the MERS outbreak.
3/ Extensive screening and fast tracking of suspect cases - emergency diagnostic kits and a weekly diagnostic capability of 430,000.
4/ Drive-through and walk-through test centres.
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FT:
April 9: All maps and charts now exclude nursing home deaths from France’s totals to maintain cross-national comparability
April 7: The maps now display total deaths rather than confirmed cases.
(https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-eu.s3.amazonaws.com%2F4526c15a-7c38-11ea-82f6-150830b3b99a?fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=1080)
(https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-eu.s3.amazonaws.com%2F3f569dd6-7c38-11ea-82f6-150830b3b99a?fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=1080)
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We'll never know the true counts...other than its quite a bit higher than the official counts.
In Portugal, in March 2020, compared to 2019, number of deaths went up, after excluding Covid-19 cases. For every Covid-19 death, there are 3 deaths due to no-Covid-19, above the same period for 2019. It will be impossible to get an accurate number, because not everyone that dies was tested for Covid-19.
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Sorry to hear it but I understand.
Same here. Unfortunately, some people here only introduce noise.
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Based on this type of visualization: https://lnkd.in/eiHE3gG
I represented total deaths (X) vs daily deaths (Y) per million inhabitants for some countries caused by COVID-19, using log scale on both axis.
The plot has visual interpretations:
- Countries still in an early stage in controlling the disease (UK, US, Germany?) show a rectilinear trend since daily deaths grow at roughly the same rate as total deaths.
- Plots getting close to a vertical asymptote correspond to countries managing to control the spread and effects of the coronavirus (see China, S. Korea?, Italy or Spain)
- In the same ways plots reaching higher points in the X or Y axis correspond to countries with more daily and total deaths per inhabitant. Here Spain is unfortunately the current 'winner' on both axis.
(http://guillermoluijk.com/misc/venciendocoronavirus.png)
Thanks. Indeed, here in Portugal, given the up and down beahviour of daily cases (500 - 1500 - 500 in the last 3 days) which is due to a bottleneck in the labs capacity to process the high numer of tests, which in turn creates a large number in the category of "awaiting results", and given that there are already many days after case #1, it is more meaningful now to look at:
1. plotting the average of the previous 7 days, to get rid of these ups and downs. When we do that, we get a stable plateau type curve.
2. look at the trends in number of people getting hospitalized, and from those, ICU occupancy - this is independent of number of tests.
3. look at death numbers like you did - this is also independent of number of tests.
Regards
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Sars-CoV-2 vs Sars.
Sars-CoV-2 produces more pathogens and hides beneath the immune system’s radar:
https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3079502/coronavirus-causes-covid-19-can-produce-more
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(...)
I updated the plot with today's data and added Portugal for you. Also plotted Hubei which accounts for 96% of reported deaths in China (another matter to discuss about). Hubei's curve is an offset version of whole China's:
(http://guillermoluijk.com/misc/venciendocoronavirus.png)
Update: added Belgium and Holland. Belgium doesn't seem to be taking this seriously enough.
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It's remarkable how similar is the trajectory for so many countries (excl. China and South Korea).
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It's remarkable how similar is the trajectory for so many countries (excl. China and South Korea).
At first glance it is but maybe it isn't. All people behave more or less in the same way. We talk to each other, we buy food, we work in factories and offices and those places are the same the world over, we go to parties and restaurants. The virus doesn't care about national borders, it just transmits the way it transmits. I think it would be more surprising if the trajectories were wildly different from each other. The later reaction to the virus, how to deal with it, may reflect different levels of social cohesion when addressing a common problem and that seems to be more affected by culture.
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At first glance it is but maybe it isn't. All people behave more or less in the same way. We talk to each other, we buy food, we work in factories and offices and those places are the same the world over, we go to parties and restaurants. The virus doesn't care about national borders, it just transmits the way it transmits. I think it would be more surprising if the trajectories were wildly different from each other. The later reaction to the virus, how to deal with it, may reflect different levels of social cohesion when addressing a common problem and that seems to be more affected by culture.
There are enough principal differences between all these countries and how they deal with the crisis:
Start of the crisis (first infection case), different travel regulations, climate (air temperature and humidity), lockdown degrees, average population age, discipline of citizens to adhere to imposed lockdowns), testing volume, available hospital capacity, availability of masks and ventilators, etc.
The individual curves start to diverge at the end of the shown time axis. In the next 2-weeks segment, we may see more differences in the individual outcomes.
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In Portugal, in March 2020, compared to 2019, number of deaths went up, after excluding Covid-19 cases. For every Covid-19 death, there are 3 deaths due to no-Covid-19, above the same period for 2019. It will be impossible to get an accurate number, because not everyone that dies was tested for Covid-19.
I think the best approximation is to use the Covid-19 tally and add the difference in deaths between last years average and this years deaths. Sure these extra deaths won't be totally Covid-19'caused, but I would think it would be a very close approximation.
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It's remarkable how similar is the trajectory for so many countries (excl. China and South Korea).
That's what I was about to say. All the arguments how America should have started earlier makes no sense because everyone pretty much did they same thing and have they same results.
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There are enough principal differences between all these countries and how they deal with the crisis:
Start of the crisis (first infection case), different travel regulations, climate (air temperature and humidity), lockdown degrees, average population age, discipline of citizens to adhere to imposed lockdowns), testing volume, available hospital capacity, availability of masks and ventilators, etc.
The individual curves start to diverge at the end of the shown time axis. In the next 2-weeks segment, we may see more differences in the individual outcomes.
I don't think so. Even in America, we're seeing a flattening out as cases and deaths appear to be leveling off, especially in hard-hit areas like the NY Metro Area which represented 60% of the cases in the country. The big unknown is whether the virus is going to die out naturally or continue on through the summer and fall or adapt into another virus next year. Let's prepare for the latter and pray for the former.
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That's what I was about to say. All the arguments how America should have started earlier makes no sense because everyone pretty much did they same thing and have they same results.
Are you kidding? The curve shapes may be similar but the actual numbers are different. The countries that started earlier are experiencing less suffering.
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I don't think so. Even in America, we're seeing a flattening out as cases and deaths appear to be leveling off, especially in hard-hit areas like the NY Metro Area which represented 60% of the cases in the country. The big unknown is whether the virus is going to die out naturally or continue on through the summer and fall or adapt into another virus next year. Let's prepare for the latter and pray for the former.
It may be flattening in NY but may be increasing elsewhere. The fact that numbers are low now in other areas means almost nothing. It was low in NY at one point as well. There's no magic involved here.
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I don't think so. Even in America, we're seeing a flattening out as cases and deaths appear to be leveling off, especially in hard-hit areas like the NY Metro Area which represented 60% of the cases in the country. The big unknown is whether the virus is going to die out naturally or continue on through the summer and fall or adapt into another virus next year. Let's prepare for the latter and pray for the former.
It doesn't look like the USA curve is flattening. Fluctuating would a better description.
As of Friday evening, 18,637 people in the United States have died of coronavirus, according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University, an increase of 1,953 deaths from Thursday.
States like New York and New Jersey may have already passed their peaks this week, but Florida and Texas could see the worst by the end of the month, according to the IHME model.
The IHME's modeling also estimates more people will die from coronavirus than previously predicted.
On Wednesday, the IHME estimated that 60,415 in the US would die of coronavirus by August, assuming social distancing policies continue through May. On Friday, that estimate increased to 61,500.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/10/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html
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major cities in my state are on the steep part of the curve, maybe 3-4 weeks behind NYC
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I think the best approximation is to use the Covid-19 tally and add the difference in deaths between last years average and this years deaths. Sure these extra deaths won't be totally Covid-19'caused, but I would think it would be a very close approximation.
I agree, that calculus can be even more accurate than COVID-19 specifically accounted deaths because it really represents the incremental effect of COVID-19 over BAU expected deaths (i.e. someone who was going to die on those days regardless of the fact he got COVID-19). The estimated expected number of deaths becomes a control group.
Red: real deaths
Black: expected deaths
Daily deaths in Spain:
(https://ep01.epimg.net/politica/imagenes/2020/04/11/actualidad/1586599766_815671_1586600838_sumario_normal_recorte1.jpg)
Regards
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[...]
Is it still general feeling still that we are asymptotically approaching 1% death rate overall or is it too early to call?
Hard to say where it will stabilize, with too few tests. The current expected range seems to be from 0.3 to 1%.
One can only hope it's closer to the lower number.
There is still a lot to be learned about this novel virus.
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Hard to say where it will stabilize, with too few tests. The current expected range seems to be from 0.3 to 1%.
One can only hope it's closer to the lower number.
There is still a lot to be learned about this novel virus.
I made a simple infection model based on Susceptible -> Infected -> Recovered/Death status through probabilities, and manually adjusted it to fit real death people data in the best possible way.
The social distancing period (=home confinement for most of the population) assumed was 14-mar -> 10-may.
Most parameters (number of contacts pre/post confinement, probability of death one infected, incubation and death periods,...) were forced by the real data from coronavirus deaths in Spain:
(https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-AZsBJFQAqwE/XpMumm4vhZI/AAAAAAAAI84/lZzHaIpF1pIFm5UuYEY0Q1Q6mZsQO4qWwCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/simulacioncoronavirus1lite.png)
The main insights after adjusting the model were:
- Ro=2,1 before social distancing, Ro=0,8 during social distancing
- Mortality rate over total infected population: 0,6%
- 6 days of incubation, 10 days to death
And the main outputs:
- 4M of the total population (8,5%) went through the virus after social distancing
- Infection peak of 2,4M on 25-mar
- 24K total expected deaths after social distancing (currently 16K)
(https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6dJPGVPnh6A/XpNAdJbEErI/AAAAAAAAI9s/6S3L4YAykUsQWOG6H7XP_9MEQ10uSy7hACLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/simulacioncoronavirus5lite.png)
(https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TmsgHDcK0Vs/XpMz-os4HlI/AAAAAAAAI9g/zevN8zswAbY1bgcJyVu4z95dfxZdXy6_ACLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/simulacioncoronavirus4lite.png)
The most critical figure in my opinion is the only 8,5% of infected population after social distancing. It's very low to expect any herd inmunity.
I hope to be wrong but with such a % we cannot go back to our previous social and professional life, otherwise the problem could be back by the end of June (assuming no vaccine and no coronavirus sensitivity to higher temperatures):
(https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-pLwC4UohKf4/XpMvkeOjYmI/AAAAAAAAI9A/exjPUmYMydozqrtbGr2tzntI8EovRGkvACLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/simulacioncoronavirus2lite.png)
The whole article (including a link to the Excel model) can be Google-translated into English: https://www.datosimagensonido.com/2020/04/prediccion-de-evolucion-del-coronavirus.html
Regards
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Are you kidding? The curve shapes may be similar but the actual numbers are different. The countries that started earlier are experiencing less suffering.
America is the third largest country in population after China and India. Also, 60% of the cases were in the crowded NYC Metro area which had huge numbers of foreign visitors. In any case, the graph is the same except for China and Taiwan, maybe Korea. If China didn't lie to the world and get WHO to swear to it, the whole world would have started earlier. Why don't you have any criticism for China?
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America is the third largest country in population after China and India. Also, 60% of the cases were in the crowded NYC Metro area which had huge numbers of foreign visitors. In any case, the graph is the same except for China and Taiwan, maybe Korea. If China didn't lie to the world and get WHO to swear to it, the whole world would have started earlier. Why don't you have any criticism for China?
Wrong thread.
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Sobering information from the Dutch Outbreak Management Team.
It is unclear whether people who had only mild symptoms or were asymptomatic, created enough antibodies to become immune.
Serum tests show varying amounts of antibodies in those who have recovered. It is unclear whether those individuals with low counts can be reinfected.
More testing and research is being done to find an answer.
Potentially positive news, but still the subject of early clinical tests. Doctors in the Radboud UMC hospital observed a pattern in those who got really ill and had to be committed to the ICU. Patients show a fluid buildup coming from damaged (by the virus) tiny arteries/veins, capillaries, leaking into the pulmonary alveolus where the infection spreads and affects the lungs. These doctors have seen a similar fluid buildup in other diseases, for which there is working medication. Tests on a few patients look encouraging, so further testing has started on 20 patients. It's too early to declare victory, but it would help those who are seriously affected to improve their survival rate.
This suppression of symptoms is not a cure but is still important because each day in the ICU roughly equates to one month of revalidation if patients survive. People who have been kept in a coma for such a long period, lose a lot of muscle mass and need to learn to swallow again, learn to walk, and can suffer from mental issues.
Theoretical explanation: Substance gets free play
This is the theory: The coronavirus enters the lungs via the so-called ACE2-receptor, an enzyme on organs. ACE2 has an important function that until now has remained out of the picture in coronavirus research. The enzyme keeps the substance bradykininia under control. This is important, because with too much bradykininia blood vessels start leaking. But that mechanism doesn't seem to work well in people with a corona infection.
We have good reason to believe that this Covid-19 infection has exactly this effect: ACE2 receptors disappear from the lung cells when the virus is brought in, giving bradykinine free rein and the small blood vessels start leaking massively at the site of infection,' says Frank van de Veerdonk, internist-infectiologist in the Radboudumc.
Van de Veerdonk and colleagues are familiar with this phenomenon from another, very rare clinical picture: hereditary angioedema. People with this disease can suddenly swell hands, feet, abdomen or face.
First treatments
Radboudumc researchers are now setting up the first treatments with Icatibant, a drug that can inhibit the effects of bradykinine. For every good idea must first of all be proven. On a national level, we are in talks with the UMC Utrecht, on an international level with ReMap-Cap and others. We hope that this will give us a definitive answer as soon as possible on the insights we have now launched.
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
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Coronavirus is not a problem if you get into your nineties.
When 97-year-old Brazilian Gina Dal Colleto was hospitalized on April 1 with coronavirus symptoms, few could have thought she would survive the deadly virus.
On Sunday, however, Dal Colleto was pushed in a wheelchair out of Sao Paulo’s Vila Nova Star hospital to applause from doctors and nurses, becoming the oldest known survivor of COVID-19 in Brazil, the Latin American country worst-hit by the outbreak.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-healthcare-coronavirus-brazil-survivo/great-grandmother-97-becomes-brazils-oldest-coronavirus-survivor-idUSKCN21U0R3
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Coronavirus is not a problem if you get into your nineties.
Of all the fatuous comments I have read in this and other threads, I think that takes the biscuit.
Jeremy
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Are you kidding? The curve shapes may be similar but the actual numbers are different. The countries that started earlier are experiencing less suffering.
Or to put it another way. for some countries the first step in the crisis was anticipation and for others it was denial.
From what I have seen of China their steps were complete military enforced lockdown, teams of people in hazmat suits walking the streets spraying and drones flying overhead spraying. A lot of countries were not as drastic but most are now on the downhill part of the curve and planning for relaxing restrictions. Of the global 84,000 new cases a day though, one country has 31,000.
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Or to put it another way. for some countries the first step in the crisis was anticipation and for others it was denial.
Denial might be a slight exaggeration but they certainly didn't anticipate the degree of contagion nor, in some cases, did they take appropriate preventive measures. Too early to make a final statistical assesment on how effective each country's choice and implementation were until a clear plateau is reached. The UK is approximately 7 days behind France and 14 days behind Italy. We're not there yet ...
(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49771878918_51142591b4_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/2iQaTzq)
Australian data (columns as above) : 6400 / 61 / 251 / 2
*Edit: added chart and tabular data from The Times (UK) dd 14-April
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Per Henry Ford Health System, 1,057 COVID-19 patients have been discharged in the last 30 days
https://www.wxyz.com/news/coronavirus/henry-ford-health-1075-covid-19-patients-discharged-in-last-30-days?fbclid=IwAR07pqNZSAqEAIpTckGnBIMeFHUbAxNvWZUaocxyGrc9R9G3HgLqOEDzfFY
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I am heartened by the timely measures Greece put in place to protect their people.
How Greece is beating coronavirus (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/14/how-greece-is-beating-coronavirus-despite-a-decade-of-debt)
My wife and I long for a time when we can once more hug and kiss our many dear Greek friends.
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Short interview regarding the newly developed "Cape Breton" ventilator https://youtu.be/fXeLVC5zlhQ (https://youtu.be/fXeLVC5zlhQ).
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I am heartened by the timely measures Greece put in place to protect their people.
How Greece is beating coronavirus (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/14/how-greece-is-beating-coronavirus-despite-a-decade-of-debt)
My wife and I long for a time when we can once more hug and kiss our many dear Greek friends.
Alex Patelis, Mitsotakis’ economics adviser, said: “There are problems you can solve through spin and others that require truth and transparency. It was very clear we needed experts and we needed to listen to them. That said, Greeks have been through crisis; they know what it is. I think that also enabled them to adapt and be stoic.”
Textbook. I hope it works for them.
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I am heartened by the timely measures Greece put in place to protect their people.
My wife and I long for a time when we can once more hug and kiss our many dear Greek friends.
Hopefully, sooner rather than later.
Source of some amusement that such a naturally unruly nation so quickly adapted to the interim regime (aka lockdown). Not that 'persuasion' wasn't necessary, more so with the clerics than the populace.
Corfu prosecutor charges bishop, mayor over church service, holy communion
Corfu prosecutor Lambridis has drawn up charges against Bishop Nektarios of Corfu, the mayor of central Corfu, the head of the municipal council and clerics and worshippers who participated in a service held at the Aghios Spyridon church in Corfu Town on Saturday . Three people who attended the service - two men and a woman - were reportedly given holy communion, despite the particularly high risk the ritual poses for the spread of the virus.
Lambridis, who is a court of first instance prosecutor said the case file has been sent to the local police and will be executed in the context of the so-called "aftoforo" law which permits a swift hearing if an arrest is made within 48 hours of an alleged crime. The government had banned all church services as part of its response to the Covid-19 pandemic. Services will be permitted this week in the runup to Orthodox Easter, for clerics but only behind closed doors, without the presence of worshippers, with the services to be broadcast online.
In response to the above , wonderful one-liner from the Prime Minister in his address to the nation last night:
"Our faith is not in danger, the faithful are"
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Hopefully, sooner rather than later.
Source of some amusement that such a naturally unruly nation so quickly adapted to the interim regime (aka lockdown). Not that 'persuasion' wasn't necessary, more so with the clerics than the populace.
In response to the above , wonderful one-liner from the Prime Minister in his address to the nation last night:
"Our faith is not in danger, the faithful are"
We got it. You've been repeating your point for 34 pages. Stay home. Well, the whole world is staying home. Now what? What is Greece doing now to get the tourists back? When are the Germans coming back to sip their ouzo and cafe? What should the US do? The rest of the world?
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We got it. You've been repeating your point for 34 pages.
Not 34 pages, but post #644.
**/off-topic**
Now what? What is Greece doing now to get the tourists back?
Greece from Home’ initiative seen as ‘brilliant’ response to crisis
Bill Gates has hailed recent initiatives developed to adapt to the “new normal” imposed by the coronavirus crisis, such as teleworking and virtual software innovations, with emotional intelligence consultant Justin Bariso arguing that a platform launched by the Greek National Tourism Organization is one such “brilliant” response to the challenges of the crisis indicated by the US tech mogul.
“The tourism industry is definitely one of the hardest hit by the pandemic. But maybe you can learn from ‘Greece from Home,’ a brilliant initiative by the Greek National Tourism Organization, in cooperation with Google,” Justin Bariso wrote in Inc magazine following an interview by LinkedIn Editor-in-Chief Daniel Roth with Gates on world responses to the pandemic and the economic and social recovery that needs to come after.
The “Greece from Home” platform was launched at the start of April by the GNTO and Marketing Greece, with the support of Google, and is aimed at reinforcing the country’s positive image during the Covid-19 pandemic by helping people around the world stay in touch with Greek culture and be inspired by the country’s attractions.
The initiative is also aimed at tourism professionals, helping them enhance their digital skills with the help of Google via the “Grow Greek Tourism Online” seminars, which are organized with the support of the Greek Ministry of Tourism. More than 1,000 people signed up to participate in the group seminars in the first 10 days of their launch.
“This site is also built on the principle of content marketing: using great online content to create a relationship with potential customers. Through YouTube videos and other content, creators give viewers a chance to tour archeological sites and museums, experience beautiful scenes of nature, and even take ‘walking’ tours or visit restaurants – all virtually, of course,” said Bariso of the initiative.
“Greece from Home” further leverages YouTube, with videos featuring popular figures including tennis ace Stefanos Tsitsipas and NBA star Giannis Antetokounmpo.
“Done right, your content might be able to bring in revenue through ads or product sales. And at the very least, it’s a way to keep in touch with your audience until they are willing (and able) to travel again,” he added.
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Manoli, armand, many thanks for your contributions regarding Greece, they were much appreciated.
Keith
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We got it. You've been repeating your point for 34 pages. Stay home. Well, the whole world is staying home. Now what? What is Greece doing now to get the tourists back? When are the Germans coming back to sip their ouzo and cafe? What should the US do? The rest of the world?
Now what: keep people home until the conditions are there that allow slow reopening. Several European countries are already slowly coming back to life, like in Austria, Denmark, Norway, Poland, Check Republic, Spain, and Italy. Such decisions always carry a risk, so it is better to listen to the specialists and continue to implement safety measures.
Now what: we get ready to face the economic crisis. Portugal will have a drop of the GDP of 8%, the highest in 100 years. Other countries will farebetter, others worse. But all will suffer. Estimate is that Portugalwill go back to 2019 results in 2021.
Getting tourists back: like Greece, Portugal has a lot of income from tourism. We will face a drop no doubt, but we started getting ready already:
https://econews.pt/2020/03/22/coronavirus-turismo-de-portugal-launches-campaign-this-is-the-time-to-stop/
Right now there is another campaign to convince portuguese to do tourism in Portugal. A win-win situation, as in Greece, because for at least 1 year no one will feel like taking avacation abroad.
What should the US do: what has been shown to work in other countries, in terms of the science aspect. Other parts are OT.
Rest of the World: as above.
Bottom line: whatever measures are taken, there is a risk associated with them. Unfortunately, risk management is something that is often not well understood.
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Manoli, armand, many thanks for your contributions regarding Greece, they were much appreciated.
Keith, thank you.
Thought you may also appreciate an NYT article on the 'Fauci's' this side of the Atlantic.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/world/europe/scientists-coronavirus-heroes.html?referringSource=articleShare
Manoli
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Keith, thank you.
Thought you may also appreciate an NYT article on the 'Fauci's' this side of the Atlantic.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/world/europe/scientists-coronavirus-heroes.html?referringSource=articleShare
Manoli
Thanks for that.
There's no doubt that respect for the scientific and medical sectors has blossomed whilst that for politicians - career and those wannabes as witnessed on LuLa - has shrivelled.
Keith
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Not 34 pages, but post #644.
**/off-topic**
I wish them a lot of luck. The tourist industry and travel, cruise ships, hotels, air travel,Disney, etc are going to be hard hit for a long time. I like traveling but I'm really nervous especially due to my age.
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After a few days of less than 2,000 deaths in USA, the daily death total jumped again to 2,400.
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Is it my imagination or is weekend data often a little wonky?
There is a footnote on Worldometer about 3000 deaths in New York whose classification is confused.
The footnote reads, 'New York City today has reported 3,778 additional deaths that have occurred since March 11 and have been classified as "probable," defined as follows: “decedent [...] had no known positive laboratory test for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) but the death certificate lists as a cause of death “COVID-19” or an equivalent" [source]. We will add these to the New York State total as soon as it is determined whether the historical distribution can be obtained'
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The daily totals are fluctuating up and down, but the overall trend for Canada, USA, worldwide is still going up. OTOH, West European countries seem to be on an downward slope.
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The daily totals are fluctuating up and down, but the overall trend for Canada, USA, worldwide is still going up. OTOH, West European countries seem to be on an downward slope.
In Portugal, as of late Ifind it more representative to look at:
1. 7 days moving daily average, to smooth out any "noise" introduced by the lagtime between testing and getting results. Also results seem to accumulate during weekends, which results in early week spikes of daily cases.
2. Numbers of patients addmited into hospitals.
3. Number of patients in ICU.
For the last 7 days, #1 is hovering at around 700, and #2 and #3 are slowly coming down.
Number of deaths today stands at 599, mostly older people, and about 1/3 in caring homes for older people. The latter I criticise a lot, because there was ample time in Portugal for government and institutions to prepare. By the time visits were prohibited, about 1 month ago, the virus was already there.
There is now talk of slowly opening up in May, but with many restrictions: limited number of people in restaurants, shops, etc, general use of non-cirurgical maks for people, etc. Every 30 working days, Portugal's GDP goes down 6%, so clearly a strict quarantine is not sustainable for long.
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I am breaking my no posting about SARS-CoV-2 only to inform those who are interested that the weekly aggregations of my email newsletter are now up at: https://agoldhammer.com/covid_19 If there are any LuLa readers who wish to subscribe to the "free" newsletter, send me a private message.
Returning to radio silence.
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I am breaking my no posting about SARS-CoV-2 only to inform those who are interested that the weekly aggregations of my email newsletter are now up at: https://agoldhammer.com/covid_19 If there are any LuLa readers who wish to subscribe to the "free" newsletter, send me a private message.
Returning to radio silence.
Thank you.
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I am breaking my no posting about SARS-CoV-2 only to inform those who are interested that the weekly aggregations of my email newsletter are now up at: https://agoldhammer.com/covid_19 If there are any LuLa readers who wish to subscribe to the "free" newsletter, send me a private message.
Returning to radio silence.
Nice job Alan. Two questions. What are the odds for a cure remedy for those who have caught it? What about a vaccine? Will the disease die out on its own or continue through the summer and fall? Will their be a new strain next year? I'll send you these questions through direct email but would appreciate if you answer here so everyone an gain your insights. Thanks. Alan K.
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This is what the governors are looking at and why they'll act sooner than later. For one, NY Governor Cuomo is looking at a 78% decline in the NY manufacturing index. The other economic news is just as dire.
The economic data is even worse than Wall Street feared: ‘The economy is clearly in ruins here’
"Consumer and manufacturing reports for March showed the hit to the economy from the coronavirus was even swifter and deeper in the early weeks of the shutdown than expected.
March retail sales fell 8.7%, the most ever in government data, and New York regional manufacturing activity hit an all-time low, declining a shocking 78.2%. Industrial production slipped 5.4% and manufacturing was down 6.3%, a record reflecting in part the 28% decline in auto production as plants shut down."
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/15/the-economic-data-is-even-worse-than-wall-street-feared-the-economy-is-clearly-in-ruins-here.html
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I am breaking my no posting about SARS-CoV-2 only to inform those who are interested that the weekly aggregations of my email newsletter are now up at: https://agoldhammer.com/covid_19 If there are any LuLa readers who wish to subscribe to the "free" newsletter, send me a private message.
Returning to radio silence.
Alan, thanks, impressive work.
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Nice job Alan. Two questions. What are the odds for a cure remedy for those who have caught it? What about a vaccine? Will the disease die out on its own or continue through the summer and fall? Will their be a new strain next year? I'll send you these questions through direct email but would appreciate if you answer here so everyone an gain your insights. Thanks. Alan K.
It is highly likely that one of the vaccine trials will succeed. Several of the vaccines being tested are entirely new delivery platforms and this is their first testing in humans. We have no idea whether they will even work. Some companies are using more traditional ways of making vaccines and I think stand a better chance of success. The bigger question is how much safety data will be required. Most late stage vaccine trials enroll 50,000 patients so they can reliably detect a 1 in 10,000 rare adverse event. Whether the public will tolerate a less tested vaccine that 'might' have some bad effects at a rate such as that will be a question for policy makers. Personally, I would not accept a vaccine that does not pass that threshold.
What we need is a good oral antiviral drug that can be given to those who are first diagnosed. Unfortunately, none of the trial data that I have seen gives me any optimism. We also need a drug that is 'relatively' safe as opposed to hydroxychloroquine which has some nasty side effects (it's half life in the body is measured in days not hours!!). Remdesivir, an antiviral developed for Ebola, has shown a bit of promise but it has to be administered IV so it's use is limited. It's also not clear at what stage in the illness it will be effective. There are some monoclonal antibodies that slow down the immune response which may help those who are in the worst shape (patients whose immune system over react tend to have very poor clinical outcomes). There is also work looking at using purified antibodies from those who have recovered. While this on paper looks like it would work, sera from just one person can only treat 2 or maybe 3 people. We will need to develop monoclonal antibodies that can be produced at large scale to substitute for this. there is a lot of work going on in that area and we should have some clinical material in 1-2 months.
THIS IS ONLY MY OPINION: The reason for shutting things down was to alleviate a total meltdown of the healthcare system. there was a statistic in the paper today that maybe as many as 9000 healthcare workers contracted SARS-CoV-2. Had we not engaged in severe social distancing things would have gotten even worse. there would have been rolling shutdowns of many stores and manufacturing facilities had the pandemic continued without social distancing. that would have had an adverse impact on the economy (look at what happened in Sioux Falls, SD where they had to shutter a meat processing plant because 400 people caught the virus). I am optimistic that with a lot more testing we can understand the base rate of infection and make an intelligent decision on how to open things and what kind of controls are to be put in place. Only with a well thought out testing regime can we then confidently identify hot spots quickly and take action. Harvard economist Larry summers pointed out that each week we are shut down costs about $80 billion a week. If we took a portion of that and invested it right now in testing scale up we could recoup the investment by opening things weeks ahead of the plodding schedule we are presently on.
Back to Radio Silence
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Alan What about gene therapy. The fact that an Amur Tiger at the Bx. Zoo but not other cats was infected by a human handler shows the virus effects particular species. The Amur tiger comes from China among other areas in Asia. Maybe the virus started with one and was transferred to humans there. In any case, is anyone looking into gene therapy and trying to find markers in the DNA?
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Not exactly science, but definitely not politics:
Here in New Mexico, and I believe also in Arizona, the Navajo Indian Nation is really being hit hard. In a county dominated by the reservation, there have been 192 confirmed cases, and 10 deaths. Just out of curiosity, and because I'm an Iowa native, I clicked on the county that has Iowa's biggest reservation (which is not very big, the entire county has a population of only 16,000) has 108 confirmed cases and two deaths. This makes me wonder if Indian reservations are being hit harder than the general population, and if so, whether the cause might be genetic (lack of some kind of immunity, as with the early plagues that wiped out so many Indians during the European settlement here) or cultural. In the case of the Navajos, the talk I've heard is that the cause is likely cultural, with many multi-generational families living together, rather than the single-family homes typical of the rest of the U.S.
In Alan's post, he talks about being worried about 1 in 10,000 adverse event (which I assume means death or some other catastrophic illness as happened with the polio virus accident back in the 50s) but I'm of the opinion that a 1-in-10,000 as a theoretical possibility would be acceptable, given that the death rate among confirmed cases of the virus seem to be about 1% (one in a hundred.) It might be that such a vaccine could be targeted at the elderly, who seem to have much greater than a 1% death rate. We do that currently, with a flu vaccine designed specifically for the elderly, although I'm not sure whether that is a slightly different vaccine, or just a larger dose of the standard vaccine. If we do get a vaccine that doesn't have the full safety protocol, but is "believed" to be safe, I think the government should indemnify the manufacturer against claims.
I've been following the Sweden situation. Now 1,203 deaths with 11,927 confirmed cases of Covid-19. That's a death rate of 10% among confirmed cases.
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Not exactly science, but definitely not politics:
Here in New Mexico, and I believe also in Arizona, the Navajo Indian Nation is really being hit hard. In a county dominated by the reservation, there have been 192 confirmed cases, and 10 deaths. Just out of curiosity, and because I'm an Iowa native, I clicked on the county that has Iowa's biggest reservation (which is not very big, the entire county has a population of only 16,000) has 108 confirmed cases and two deaths. This makes me wonder if Indian reservations are being hit harder than the general population, and if so, whether the cause might be genetic (lack of some kind of immunity, as with the early plagues that wiped out so many Indians during the European settlement here) or cultural. In the case of the Navajos, the talk I've heard is that the cause is likely cultural, with many multi-generational families living together, rather than the single-family homes typical of the rest of the U.S.
In Alan's post, he talks about being worried about 1 in 10,000 adverse event (which I assume means death or some other catastrophic illness as happened with the polio virus accident back in the 50s) but I'm of the opinion that a 1-in-10,000 as a theoretical possibility would be acceptable, given that the death rate among confirmed cases of the virus seem to be about 1% (one in a hundred.) It might be that such a vaccine could be targeted at the elderly, who seem to have much greater than a 1% death rate. We do that currently, with a flu vaccine designed specifically for the elderly, although I'm not sure whether that is a slightly different vaccine, or just a larger dose of the standard vaccine. If we do get a vaccine that doesn't have the full safety protocol, but is "believed" to be safe, I think the government should indemnify the manufacturer against claims.
I've been following the Sweden situation. Now 1,203 deaths with 11,927 confirmed cases of Covid-19. That's a death rate of 10% among confirmed cases.
There has increasing worry about the state of things in Canada's northern reserves. Aside from whatever distancing issues there may be, e.g., larger numbers of people under one roof, hospital facilities in those locations would be inadequate to the task of coping with a Covid-19 outbreak. The folks woudl have to be flown elsewhere, not a simple thing.
That 10% number for Sweden seems like an outlier, comparable to the early numbers out of China. As Alan G. has said many times, until we get widespread testing of large numbers of people, we don't really know the actual rate of infection, although it was mentioned in another post that mortality seems to heading for the 0.3% to 1% range, which is plenty high enough.
It appears as though the US number of deaths has recently settled at 2000 per day, or at least it shows no obvious signs of increasing. But if it's true that the New York numbers are flattening, this means that they are increasing in other states. The new cases per day has been hovering at around 30,000 per day. As someone else suggested, a moving 7-day average plot would be nice to see.
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The Robert Koch Institute estimates that in Germany the R0 is now between 0.8-1.2. The value represents how many people one positive patient will infect. If it's below 1, it means the virus will run out of healthy hosts to infect.
That’s good progress.
Social distancing works.
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Not exactly science, but definitely not politics:
Here in New Mexico, and I believe also in Arizona, the Navajo Indian Nation is really being hit hard. In a county dominated by the reservation, there have been 192 confirmed cases, and 10 deaths. Just out of curiosity, and because I'm an Iowa native, I clicked on the county that has Iowa's biggest reservation (which is not very big, the entire county has a population of only 16,000) has 108 confirmed cases and two deaths. This makes me wonder if Indian reservations are being hit harder than the general population, and if so, whether the cause might be genetic (lack of some kind of immunity, as with the early plagues that wiped out so many Indians during the European settlement here) or cultural. In the case of the Navajos, the talk I've heard is that the cause is likely cultural, with many multi-generational families living together, rather than the single-family homes typical of the rest of the U.S.
In Alan's post, he talks about being worried about 1 in 10,000 adverse event (which I assume means death or some other catastrophic illness as happened with the polio virus accident back in the 50s) but I'm of the opinion that a 1-in-10,000 as a theoretical possibility would be acceptable, given that the death rate among confirmed cases of the virus seem to be about 1% (one in a hundred.) It might be that such a vaccine could be targeted at the elderly, who seem to have much greater than a 1% death rate. We do that currently, with a flu vaccine designed specifically for the elderly, although I'm not sure whether that is a slightly different vaccine, or just a larger dose of the standard vaccine. If we do get a vaccine that doesn't have the full safety protocol, but is "believed" to be safe, I think the government should indemnify the manufacturer against claims.
I've been following the Sweden situation. Now 1,203 deaths with 11,927 confirmed cases of Covid-19. That's a death rate of 10% among confirmed cases.
I think the regional variability in social and economical conditions is one of the drivers of how the infection spreads. In Portugal, 60% of the cases are in the north, and some possible explanantions have been proposed:
1. Industries are mostly there, fashion, shoes, cars, etc. Strong ties to Italy and Spain. First cases were people returining from fashion fairs in Milan, or from Carnival break vacations in the snow in northern Italy.
2. When the state of emergency was declared, those factories kept on working at reduced levels, because that work can not be done at home, and wewanted to mitigate the impact on the economy.
3. Finally, families in the north are more traditional, in many homes 3 generations live together - with the increasing risk of children, who are mostly asymptomatic, infecting older people. This was similar to Italy, where schools were closed and children infected their grandparents.
4. One third of deaths in Portugal are in nursing homes for old people so clearly preparation was neglected. Similar to Italy and Spain.
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The Robert Koch Institute estimates that in Germany the R0 is now between 0.8-1.2. The value represents how many people one positive patient will infect. If it's below 1, it means the virus will run out of healthy hosts to infect.
That’s good progress.
Social distancing works.
In Portugal the estimation now for R0 is 0.8. Scientists say that once it goes down to 0.7 it would be "safe" to reopen, with the necessary cautionary measures. The EU recently has proposed a set of reopening recommendations for EU countries to follow. But of course once countries start to reopen the R0 will go up again. The challenge will be to balance this "game".
Several factories have reopened yesterday (e.g. Continental Mabor), but only with half of the workers. The idea is to work in 14 days shifts, the workers being replaced on rotation. Of course with desinfection, masks, etc. We will get there, but we need to prepare for a second wave and for another winter without a vaccine.
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I tend to refrain from commenting on these Covid-19 threads because I'm retired, have no debts, have no health issues, have no children, and have an acreage property where I can grow more of my own food if the economy becomes catastrophically bad.
People who live in apartments in congested cities are in a completely different situation to mine, and I do sympathize with their fears and concerns.
However, the reason I'm making this post is the hope that some of you 'experts' ;) can clarify a very puzzling issue, regarding the number of Covid-19 deaths, per million of population, in certain countries.
I'm Australian, and am pleased at the relatively low total number of deaths from Covid-19, currently at 63, nation-wide, in a population of 25.5 million. The USA has approximately 13 times the population of Australia. Multiply 63 by 13 and one gets 819, a lot less than the current Covid-19 death rate in the USA, which is currently close to 30,000.
An explanation for the relatively low Covid-19 death rate in Australia is because we already have natural social distancing because we are such a large country with a small population. However, the majority of the population still live in congested cities such as Sydney, Melbourne, Perth and Brisbane.
An example of a country that has an even lower Covid-19 mortality rate than Australia, is Thailand. This is the most puzzling.
The current mortality rate in Thailand is just 46, yet Bangkok is one of the most visited cities in the world, rivaling Paris and London. The percentage of Chinese tourists in Thailand is greater than any other nationality. Considering that Thailand is not a fully developed nation, has lots of poverty and a very low minimum wage, and has very high air pollution from natural burn-off for agricultural purposes, and vehicles with inadequate emission controls, one would expect that Thailand's death rate from Covid-19 would be relatively high. Yet it isn't. It's amazingly low.
The population of Thailand is close to 70 million, yet its Covid-19 total deaths are significantly less than Australia's which has a much smaller population, and even more significantly less than so many European countries and the USA.
Any explanation, anyone?
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However, the reason I'm making this post is the hope that some of you 'experts' ;) can clarify a very puzzling issue, regarding the number of Covid-19 deaths, per million of population, in certain countries.
[...]
Any explanation, anyone?
Ray - You better than anyone knows that until the data can be properly correlated and analysed, your question may be speculated on, but answered, it cannot.
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Re: Thailand low infection and deaths - because of Masks and Testing?
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As regards, damage limitation, this latest WHO / Trump 'blame' show is highlighting some unfortunate and unpalattable realities.
There is testimony and evidence emerging that the WHO properly warned, not just the USA, but another 194 nations asc well, of the dangers and pre-emptive actions and protections necessary as far back as mid-January.
Once the deaths subside, I anticipate this topic will be re-visited, with gusto and, in all likelihood to the detriment of a sizeable number of political figures.
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There is testimony and evidence emerging that the WHO properly warned, not just the USA, but another 194 nations asc well, of the dangers and pre-emptive actions and protections necessary as far back as mid-January.
Nothing is 'emerging' — the WHO's warnings were loud, clear and well-circulated.
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Nothing is 'emerging' — the WHO's warnings were loud, clear and well-circulated.
I was attempting to couch it in diplomatic terms, saving the vitriol for later and, hopefully, another thread. [/we-need-a-new-choice-of-emojis]
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Ray - You better than anyone knows that until the data can be properly correlated and analysed, your question may be speculated on, but answered, it cannot.
Thailand has an excellent health system, and all the news from Thailand I've read mentions extreme lock-downs, wide-spread testing in public for early symptoms, using temperature measurement devices pointed at the head, and severe penalties for those breaching the lock-down requirements.
There are numerous reports of small groups of people drinking together and having fun, being arrested by police. Even walking or exercising on certain beaches is banned, despite the reality of social distancing on a relatively deserted beach which should not pose a problem.
Wearing masks is generally required by law in all public areas, especially in supermarkets where entry is forbidden without a mask.
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Thailand has an excellent health system, and all the news from Thailand I've read mentions extreme lock-downs, wide-spread testing in public for early symptoms, using temperature measurement devices pointed at the head, and severe penalties for those breaching the lock-down requirements.
Not uncommon, indeed essential.
As I said, we may speculate but statistical certainty will need to wait.
Further stats on www.worldometer.com/coronavirus
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Self explanatory.
The Good Law Project is headed by Jolyon Maugham QC.
The original NHS document is attached below.
(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49780299243_840b3115db_z.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/2iQV3Dr)
https://goodlawproject.org/leaked-guidance/ (https://flic.kr/p/2iQV3Dr)
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Leaked guidance from an NHS hospital trust reveals doctors are being told they are not required to put COVID-19 on death certificates.
Manoli,
If this is in fact what is happening in the U.K. then the deaths from Covid-19 are likely under-reported, yet the reported deaths in the U.K. from Covid-19 are still very significantly higher than in Thailand.
I've not come across any articles which suggest Thailand is under-reporting Covid-19 deaths, but I guess that could be an explanation. Here's a Wikipedia article which provides details of the progression of the pandemic in Thailand from its first case in January, and the way the government is tackling the problem.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Thailand
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Probably overkill for most people on this forum.
Some actual data/literature used in day to day care of Covid patients: http://www.med.umich.edu/surgery/mcccn/
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1) Current, preliminary (!), results from an ongoing test among blood-donors in the Netherlands shows that approx. (only) 3% have anti-bodies due to COVID-19.
The test population is chosen to be statistically relevant, and involves individuals 18 -79 years of age.
Again, this is an ongoing test and is not the final result. But it does show that building up herd-immunity would take very long under an intelligent lock-down regime. ALSO, having anti-bodies does not necessarily mean that people are immune and cannot become contagious again. It's too early to draw such conclusions.
2) A different research project (by the Radboud UMC) is focusing on finding anti-bodies in nasal secretion. This might help to better understand how the spreading of the virus by asymptomatic people (e.g. children) takes place.
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7 days moving average of number of cases, plotted against the number of days after the 100th case. It is clear why some countries are talking about reopening.
Portugal is the black line.
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Re: Thailand low infection and deaths - because of Masks and Testing?
In America, the experts were saying originally, that masks should only be worn by people who have the virus. Now they say it's better if everyone wears them. Maybe they said that originally to save the low stocked masks for medical workers. Or maybe they didn't know what they were talking about. Like I said, liars, damn liars and experts.
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In America, the experts were saying originally, that masks should only be worn by people who have the virus. Now they say it's better if everyone wears them. Maybe they said that originally to save the low stocked masks for medical workers. Or maybe they didn't know what they were talking about. Like I said, liars, damn liars and experts.
You can't trust anyone, so just go with your gut.
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In America, the experts were saying originally, that masks should only be worn by people who have the virus. Now they say it's better if everyone wears them. Maybe they said that originally to save the low stocked masks for medical workers. Or maybe they didn't know what they were talking about. Like I said, liars, damn liars and experts.
They said it to conserve the masks for the professionals. However, if you make your own mask, you'll be protected and won't be taking the masks from the medical workers.
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In America, the experts were saying originally, that masks should only be worn by people who have the virus. Now they say it's better if everyone wears them. Maybe they said that originally to save the low stocked masks for medical workers. Or maybe they didn't know what they were talking about. Like I said, liars, damn liars and experts.
Just stay in the other thread, I promise I'll leave you alone there. You are probably the last person to make any comments about somebody's expertise, first you need to recall for more than few minutes what others are saying.
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They said it to conserve the masks for the professionals. However, if you make your own mask, you'll be protected and won't be taking the masks from the medical workers.
So the experts lied to us.
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Just stay in the other thread, I promise I'll leave you alone there. You are probably the last person to make any comments about somebody's expertise, first you need to recall for more than few minutes what others are saying.
I don;t need your approval to post in this thread. Read Les's comment. He said the experts deceived us putting us in danger so we wouldn't order masks and leave more for medical people. A noble deed. But a lie. So how can you trust anything they say?
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I don;t need your approval to post in this thread. Read Les's comment. He said the experts deceived us putting us in danger so we wouldn't order masks and leave more for medical people. A noble deed. But a lie. So how can you trust anything they say?
You can't. Everything is a lie. Just make up your own reality.
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They said it to conserve the masks for the professionals. However, if you make your own mask, you'll be protected and won't be taking the masks from the medical workers.
The initial guidance was indeed intended to preserve medical masks ("surgical masks" and [K]N95 respirators) for those interacting with patients, and that remains part of the current guidance. The updated guidance, at least in the United States, is based on later research showing that asymptomatic and presymptomatic individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 are capable of shedding the virus and infecting others. In other words, the current guidance is for individuals to wear non-medical face coverings in places where it is difficult or impossible to maintain minumum physical distance in order to reduce the probability that they will make other nearby individuals sick. No inconsistency there, just a change in the protocol based on new evidence.
I don;t need your approval to post in this thread. Read Les's comment. He said the experts deceived us putting us in danger . . .
That's certainly not what he said, and I presume it's not what he meant since he never mentioned anything suggesting a motive of "deceit." And I agree with Armand Tanase that this kind of uninformed speculative chatter should be reserved for the other thread.
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I don;t need your approval to post in this thread. Read Les's comment. He said the experts deceived us putting us in danger so we wouldn't order masks and leave more for medical people. A noble deed. But a lie. So how can you trust anything they say?
Obviously, otherwise you wouldn't have posted here for quite some time. You are just making up stuff where it doesn't exist and post it here; it might fly on the other thread and this should be reserved for something more objective.
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I forgot if I posted this
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The initial guidance was indeed intended to preserve medical masks ("surgical masks" and [K]N95 respirators) for those interacting with patients, and that remains part of the current guidance. The updated guidance, at least in the United States, is based on later research showing that asymptomatic and presymptomatic individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 are capable of shedding the virus and infecting others. In other words, the current guidance is for individuals to wear non-medical face coverings in places where it is difficult or impossible to maintain minumum physical distance in order to reduce the probability that they will make other nearby individuals sick. No inconsistency there, just a change in the protocol based on new evidence.
That's certainly not what he said, and I presume it's not what he meant since he never mentioned anything suggesting a motive of "deceit." And I agree with Armand Tanase that this kind of uninformed speculative chatter should be reserved for the other thread.
Discussing medical protocol in a thread about the medical issues fits this thread. You cannot have discussion about medical issues without discussing the efficacy of their advice. Using "no politics" to silence opposing views is sticking your head in the sand. Just because you believe there was no deception doesn;t make it so. I believe as do others that the advice was given originally because they needed PPE for medical personnel. While I'm agreement with the plan, it's important that they should have been upfront with it to maintain credibility with other issues. Why would I trust people, especially experts, who are fooling me? Curiously, I just searched Google and found that I wasn't alone. Even the NY Times had an opinion piece about it by a professor of information science. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-masks.html
It also raises another important issue which is where else have they been wrong? What other information are we getting that's off the mark either because of deliberate misleading or plain innocent mistakes? Remember, their advice effects not only medical care. It also effects how we intend to bring the country and the world back to normal operations. Why should we trust them regarding these important issues when they apparently got a simple issue like the efficacy of a mask wrong?
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Discussing medical protocol in a thread about the medical issues fits this thread. You cannot have discussion about medical issues without discussing the efficacy of their advice. Using "no politics" to silence opposing views is sticking your head in the sand. Just because you believe there was no deception doesn;t make it so. I believe as do others that the advice was given originally because they needed PPE for medical personnel. While I'm agreement with the plan, it's important that they should have been upfront with it to maintain credibility with other issues. Why would I trust people, especially experts, who are fooling me? Curiously, I just searched Google and found that I wasn't alone. Even the NY Times had an opinion piece about it by a professor of information science. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-masks.html
It also raises another important issue which is where else have they been wrong? What other information are we getting that's off the mark either because of deliberate misleading or plain innocent mistakes? Remember, their advice effects not only medical care. It also effects how we intend to bring the country and the world back to normal operations. Why should we trust them regarding these important issues when they apparently got a simple issue like the efficacy of a mask wrong?
You shouldn't listen to them. Do whatever you want to do. You know what's best for you.
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Discussing medical protocol in a thread about the medical issues fits this thread. You cannot have discussion about medical issues without discussing the efficacy of their advice. Using "no politics" to silence opposing views is sticking your head in the sand. Just because you believe there was no deception doesn;t make it so. I believe as do others that the advice was given originally because they needed PPE for medical personnel. While I'm agreement with the plan, it's important that they should have been upfront with it to maintain credibility with other issues. Why would I trust people, especially experts, who are fooling me? Curiously, I just searched Google and found that I wasn't alone. Even the NY Times had an opinion piece about it by a professor of information science. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-masks.html
It also raises another important issue which is where else have they been wrong? What other information are we getting that's off the mark either because of deliberate misleading or plain innocent mistakes? Remember, their advice effects not only medical care. It also effects how we intend to bring the country and the world back to normal operations. Why should we trust them regarding these important issues when they apparently got a simple issue like the efficacy of a mask wrong?
Alan, you've asked this question many times now in numerous threads. You just don't seem to trust experts in their fields.
I'll throw this back to you. If you don't trust the experts opinions...who's would you rather follow. Rather than asking that same question...why not let us know your alternative voice you'd listen to.
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Manoli,
If this is in fact what is happening in the U.K. then the deaths from Covid-19 are likely under-reported, yet the reported deaths in the U.K. from Covid-19 are still very significantly higher than in Thailand.
Ray,
Not suggesting that Thailand or any other country is deliberately under-reporting. My earlier post was just a heads-up as the QC made clear in his letter, and on which he is seeking further clarification. Thailand has excellent results so far, as do a few other countries. What has proved true is that countries who adopted social distancing early have benefited(*). Those who delayed have suffered in comparison.
There are plenty of ‘unexplained coincidences’ as well but I dont think its beneficial to speculate as to the ‘why‘, yet. Questions to be answered in the ‘fullness of time’ - and from my reading that will be ‘some time’ , ‘cos once we’re passed the peak there’s bound to be a fairly heavy bout of acrimonious/accusatory debate between the scientists and the politicos.
(*) combined with other measures, contact tracing and testing in particular.
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Discussing medical protocol in a thread about the medical issues fits this thread. You cannot have discussion about medical issues without discussing the efficacy of their advice. Using "no politics" to silence opposing views is sticking your head in the sand. Just because you believe there was no deception doesn;t make it so. I believe as do others that the advice was given originally because they needed PPE for medical personnel. While I'm agreement with the plan, it's important that they should have been upfront with it to maintain credibility with other issues. Why would I trust people, especially experts, who are fooling me? Curiously, I just searched Google and found that I wasn't alone. Even the NY Times had an opinion piece about it by a professor of information science. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-masks.html
It also raises another important issue which is where else have they been wrong? What other information are we getting that's off the mark either because of deliberate misleading or plain innocent mistakes? Remember, their advice effects not only medical care. It also effects how we intend to bring the country and the world back to normal operations. Why should we trust them regarding these important issues when they apparently got a simple issue like the efficacy of a mask wrong?
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Like I said, liars, damn liars and experts.
When you are writing that you are not looking for an opinion or factual discussion. That's why I said the other thread will serve you much better.
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Alan, you've asked this question many times now in numerous threads. You just don't seem to trust experts in their fields.
I'll throw this back to you. If you don't trust the experts opinions...who's would you rather follow. Rather than asking that same question...why not let us know your alternative voice you'd listen to.
I don't trust experts when I get a whiff of BS or incompetency from them. Why would you?
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I don't trust experts when I get a whiff of BS or incompetency from them. Why would you?
Did it ever cross your mind that maybe you don't understand the facts discussed and that's why you think it's BS ...
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Did it ever cross your mind that maybe you don't understand the facts discussed and that's why you think it's BS ...
Your insults never end, do they? When you can't debate with logic or heart, you resort to name calling.
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I don't trust experts when I get a whiff of BS or incompetency from them. Why would you?
Didn't answer my question. If you don't trust the advice of experts...whose advice do you trust?
The other question is are you competent enough to know when an expert in the field is incompetent?
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Your insults never end, do they? When you can't debate with logic or heart, you resort to name calling.
It's not name calling, it's a very serious question.
You often complain about pretty obvious stuff and what irks me the most, you forget what was discussed just a few pages before.
I wonder, how do you decide if what an expert at something says, is BS? You need some modicum of knowledge of that subject to be able to say that. Oh, wait, you just read it on the internet.
Last obvious stuff?
The masks usage: it was stated in the beginning that the general population should not use it in order to preserve them for the medical staff. Later, it was quite clearly said that you should use a mask to try to reduce the chance of infecting the others if you are asymptomatic, not to protect yourself.
The above were stated in these forums multiple times, and yet you start questioning those statements as if you just joined this forum, and you wonder why I question your understanding? How about you read what others are saying, for starters.
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As of today, number of US Covid-19 deaths (34580) exceeded the 2019-2019 flu deaths (34200), so if anybody still thinks this virus is less harmful than the flu, they should re-examine the virus information or their sanity. Worldwide deaths up to this date exceeded 145,000. At the current rate, by end of April we may see globally 4-5 million cases and over 250,000 deaths.
CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza. The number of influenza-associated illnesses that occurred last season was similar to the estimated number of influenza-associated illnesses during the 2012–2013 influenza season when an estimated 34 million people had symptomatic influenza illness.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
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Ray,
Not suggesting that Thailand or any other country is deliberately under-reporting. My earlier post was just a heads-up as the QC made clear in his letter, and on which he is seeking further clarification. Thailand has excellent results so far, as do a few other countries. What has proved true is that countries who adopted social distancing early have benefited(*). Those who delayed have suffered in comparison.
Fair enough. The particularly low 'reported' death rate in Thailand caught my attention because Thailand has been a favourite holiday destination for me in the past. However, I'm sure glad I didn't go there this January to experience the early lock-downs and cancelled air flights in and out of the country. ;)
I suspect that the normal, wide-spread use of face masks every year, because of the regular and serious air pollution in many parts of Thailand, has contributed to the low death rate from Covid-19, as well as the early adoption of social distancing and various lock-downs.
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Didn't answer my question. If you don't trust the advice of experts...whose advice do you trust?
The other question is are you competent enough to know when an expert in the field is incompetent?
I went to three doctors for "second" opinions of what to do with a cancer I had once. I got three different solutions which was the best course to follow. Anyone who listens to so-called experts without discernment is foolish.
Look at what's happening now with moving forward. Everyone is guessing using the best information they have right now. But that info isn't complete. Plus this disease is new. No one can guarantee anything other than if you stay in your house and avoid contact with anyone, you'll be less likely to get it. Well, that doesn't help much when officials have to make decisions. The experts just don;t have all the answers.
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It's not name calling, it's a very serious question.
You often complain about pretty obvious stuff and what irks me the most, you forget what was discussed just a few pages before.
I wonder, how do you decide if what an expert at something says, is BS? You need some modicum of knowledge of that subject to be able to say that. Oh, wait, you just read it on the internet.
Last obvious stuff?
The masks usage: it was stated in the beginning that the general population should not use it in order to preserve them for the medical staff. Later, it was quite clearly said that you should use a mask to try to reduce the chance of infecting the others if you are asymptomatic, not to protect yourself.
The above were stated in these forums multiple times, and yet you start questioning those statements as if you just joined this forum, and you wonder why I question your understanding? How about you read what others are saying, for starters.
The experts said early on that masks won't help you from getting the disease so there's no point wearing them. I believe part of the reason was to preserve the masks which were in limited quantity for the medical people.
« Reply #714 on: Today at 02:56:19 pm »
ReplyQuote
Quote from: Alan Klein on Today at 01:53:00 pm
In America, the experts were saying originally, that masks should only be worn by people who have the virus. Now they say it's better if everyone wears them. Maybe they said that originally to save the low stocked masks for medical workers. Or maybe they didn't know what they were talking about. Like I said, liars, damn liars and experts.
Les responds: They said it to conserve the masks for the professionals. However, if you make your own mask, you'll be protected and won't be taking the masks from the medical workers..
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As of today, number of US Covid-19 deaths (34580) exceeded the 2019-2019 flu deaths (34200), so if anybody still thinks this virus is less harmful than the flu, they should re-examine the virus information or their sanity. Worldwide deaths up to this date exceeded 145,000. At the current rate, by end of April we may see globally 4-5 million cases and over 250,000 deaths.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
Re-check your statistics. You're not looking at them clearly. Regarding flu there were 1 billion cases and 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide. So while Covid is serious, and all the deaths are not in yet, it doesn;t seem worse than seasonal flu. In fact there are more deaths with flu than covid.
Infections
COVID-19: Approximately 2,076,015 cases worldwide; 639,664 cases in the U.S. as of Apr. 16, 2020.*
Flu: Estimated 1 billion cases worldwide; 9.3 million to 45 million cases in the U.S. per year.
Deaths
COVID-19: Approximately 138,008 deaths reported worldwide; 30,985 deaths in the U.S., as of Apr. 16, 2020.*
Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.
https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu
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I went to three doctors for "second" opinions of what to do with a cancer I had once. I got three different solutions which was the best course to follow. Anyone who listens to so-called experts without discernment is foolish.
Look at what's happening now with moving forward. Everyone is guessing using the best information they have right now. But that info isn't complete. Plus this disease is new. No one can guarantee anything other than if you stay in your house and avoid contact with anyone, you'll be less likely to get it. Well, that doesn't help much when officials have to make decisions. The experts just don;t have all the answers.
Yes the experts don't know all the answers. So again...who would you listen to for advice...if not the expert? Say for your cancer, if not the expert in cancers...who would you rather get your advice from...the bar tender at your favourite bar.
Many things in the world don't have a binary answer...but my gut says the experts in the area are much more likely to get things right than someone who knows nothing about the subject.
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Yes the experts don't know all the answers. So again...who would you listen to for advice...if not the expert? Say for your cancer, if not the expert in cancers...who would you rather get your advice from...the bar tender at your favourite bar.
Many things in the world don't have a binary answer...but my gut says the experts in the area are much more likely to get things right than someone who knows nothing about the subject.
Well of course. After all, my wife and I have been isolating at home for four weeks now. But I take experts with a grain of salt.
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... yet, it doesn;t seem worse than seasonal flu. In fact there are more deaths with flu than covid...
From something I posted on another forum:
For the "it's just the flu" and "lots more people die in car accidents" crowd:
In NYC, over an average 30 day period, about 4400 people die. Over the last 30 days, over 9500 have. Far more than died even in September, 2001.
Of those ~5000 excess deaths, only about 3000 were officially counted as due to CV-19. Which means that the official tally is likely significantly low.
Think about this. The mortality rate in NYC is over double what it normally is. That means that CV-19 is killing more people in NYC than all other causes of death, combined.
Nationally last week, CV-19 was the second leading cause of death, behind only heart disease. (and not by much, 12,626 vs 12,392) Flu and pneumonia were about 1250, car accidents in a typical week claim about 600-650.
While social distancing is working to flatten the curve, the number of deaths each day is still rising. Imagine what it would be like if we had carried on with business as usual.
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I don't trust experts when I get a whiff of BS or incompetency from them. Why would you?
You sound like someone who is often mentioned in the other thread. Better stick to that one.
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I went to three doctors for "second" opinions of what to do with a cancer I had once. I got three different solutions which was the best course to follow. Anyone who listens to so-called experts without discernment is foolish.
Look at what's happening now with moving forward. Everyone is guessing using the best information they have right now. But that info isn't complete. Plus this disease is new. No one can guarantee anything other than if you stay in your house and avoid contact with anyone, you'll be less likely to get it. Well, that doesn't help much when officials have to make decisions. The experts just don;t have all the answers.
It's called uncertainty management. It's a new disease, scientists are studying it for 4 months only. It requires politicians to make decisions with the best information available on a daily basis. Of course there is a risk, which needs to be managed. The experts will only have all the answers in a time frame of 1 to 2 years.
The amount of work being done by the experts that you say are lying to you is admirable. Under normal circumstances a vaccine takes years to be developed and trialed; that experts are estimating a vaccine in about 1 year to 1 1/2 years, which is amazing. We are seeing an unprecendented collaboration between academia, industry, and governments to achieve that goal ASAP.
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Well of course. After all, my wife and I have been isolating at home for four weeks now. But I take experts with a grain of salt.
Alan - every time I look at this forum I seem to find you disputing what is happening or the suggested means of dealing with it. You are asking questions, but you don't appear to listen to or like the answers. I can see you are confused and worried. As you are retired, why not just relax, stay at home, avoid news except perhaps once every few days to catch up, and stop stressing. Yes, some of the experts might be wrong - and of course none of us except the very uninformed would take everything we hear as the gospel. The fact is, unless we all carry on as normal and let the virus rip through society in a few months, some people are going to have to isolate or distance themselves for many months. Perhaps even a year. That might be you. But there is no shortcut until a vaccine is found.
As they say - there are few certainties in life except for death and taxation. The coronavirus is a new disease and even the experts are learning anew each week that passes. It will all become very clear in a couple of years - let's try to make sure we are still alive to learn about it ourselves.
Jim
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This Japanese experiment shows how easily coronavirus can spread – and what you can do about it
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/coronavirus-microdroplets-talking-breathing-spread-covid-19
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This Japanese experiment shows how easily coronavirus can spread – and what you can do about it
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/coronavirus-microdroplets-talking-breathing-spread-covid-19
Interesting article. I hadn't realised the WHO recommend only 1 metre social distancing. Here in the UK it's 2 metres (6' 6").
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Here's the most interesting site I've found for providing Covid-19 stats for the U.S. Good breakdowns on a variety of parameters, by state.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
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Update of the evolution of deaths plot.
Reminder (X-axis=Deaths per million inhabitants, Y-axis=Daily deaths per million inhabitants):
- Countries in the diagonal still don't control the disease.
- Countries bending down are already flattening the curve.
- The higher a country gets the more relative population have died.
All subject to the coronavirus deaths accounting criteria on each country.
- Belgium shows terrible relative numbers and trend.
- Spain, Italy and at some distance France, UK and the Netherlands, have quite high numbers but are controlling the disease
- Bad trend in the USA but still with low relative numbers (the disease arrived later)
- Very good figures and trend in Germany and Portugal
(http://guillermoluijk.com/misc/venciendocoronavirus.png)
Regards
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Here's the most interesting site I've found for providing Covid-19 stats for the U.S. Good breakdowns on a variety of parameters, by state.
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
That is a good site.
The thing that I noticed is that death rates in the US per case appear much higher than most countries.
I would think that would indicate that the case is not being discovered until the chance of recovery is lower or the the identified case is not being treated effectively due to resources.
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- Bad trend in the USA but still with low relative numbers (the disease arrived later)
Regards
I doubt that the disease arrived later in the US than any other country.
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I doubt that the disease arrived later in the US than any other country.
Irrelevant semantics. Call it spread instead of arrive as you like.
(https://i.ibb.co/Jzk2QFV/coronavirususeurope.png)
Regards
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That is a good site.
The thing that I noticed is that death rates in the US per case appear much higher than most countries.
I would think that would indicate that the case is not being discovered until the chance of recovery is lower or the the identified case is not being treated effectively due to resources.
It's basically due to the low rate of testing in the US.
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Irrelevant semantics. Call it spread instead of arrive as you like.
Regards
Do you really believe that (the disease arrived in the US after every other country) ?
That no one infected went to the USA before someone infected went to Iceland?
That the US went from zero cases to 10,000 new cases per day in a week?
Anyway, if that was really the case that every country had it before the US then why didn't they see it coming?
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Alan - every time I look at this forum I seem to find you disputing what is happening or the suggested means of dealing with it. You are asking questions, but you don't appear to listen to or like the answers. I can see you are confused and worried. As you are retired, why not just relax, stay at home, avoid news except perhaps once every few days to catch up, and stop stressing. Yes, some of the experts might be wrong - and of course none of us except the very uninformed would take everything we hear as the gospel. The fact is, unless we all carry on as normal and let the virus rip through society in a few months, some people are going to have to isolate or distance themselves for many months. Perhaps even a year. That might be you. But there is no shortcut until a vaccine is found.
As they say - there are few certainties in life except for death and taxation. The coronavirus is a new disease and even the experts are learning anew each week that passes. It will all become very clear in a couple of years - let's try to make sure we are still alive to learn about it ourselves.
Jim
Thanks for agreeing with my previous post when I said that I take experts with a grain of salt.
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Do you really believe that (the disease arrived in the US after every other country) ?
That no one infected went to the USA before someone infected went to Iceland?
That the US went from zero cases to 10,000 new cases per day in a week?
Anyway, if that was the really case that every country had it before the US then why didn't they see it coming?
If it arrived in the US at the same time, why did the cases pop up two weeks later? Could environment, weather, native genes, or other factors affect the incubation period? These are things worthy of study. They may help find a cure or vaccine.
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Thanks for agreeing with my previous post when I said that I take experts with a grain of salt.
That’s not what you said. It’s huge difference between taking what experts say with a grain of salt and you actually said, multiple times:
....
Like I said, liars, damn liars and experts.
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If it arrived in the US at the same time, why did the cases pop up two weeks later? Could environment, weather, native genes, or other factors affect the incubation period? These are things worthy of study. They may help find a cure or vaccine.
I just found this article. It appears that there are three Covid viruses that showed up at different times and different places. That could account for the delays of outbreak. The article also mentions that the virus could have been out there as early as last September and that Wuhan might not be the initial location.
https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-outbreak-september-not-wuhan-1498566
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That’s not what you said. It’s huge difference between taking what experts say with a grain of salt and you actually said, multiple times:
Regarding my statement about liars, damn liars and experts. It isn't my expression. And that's the truth.
Witnesses in trials give testimony about truth. They are either truthful or lying. Experts give testimony which is not truth but rather their opinion and for which they cannot be called liars. Opinions are not truth. It's worse.
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Regarding my statement about liars, damn liars and experts. It isn't my expression. And that's the truth.
Witnesses in trials give testimony about truth. They are either truthful or lying. Experts give testimony which is not truth but rather their opinion and for which they cannot be called liars. Opinions are not truth. It's worse.
I take it you're not someone who'd ever had to give expert testimony?
An expert isn't someone who knows everything. That person doesn't exist, even regarding very narrow fields of knowledge.
I really don't understand what you mean by "Opinions are not truth. It's worse."
As an expert in my (very narrow) field I'm occasionally called to render an opinion. Depending on the question at hand I can sometimes say with absolute certainty that X is true. More often I can say that X is likely to be true, and give a confidence band. My opinions are not infallible, but in all cases, are much more likely to be correct than those of some random guy off the street.
If you had a question about a matter that I'm the expert in, would you listen to me or to the random guy? Would you conclude that you can't tell, and that a proven track record in that field has no value? Do you value knowledge and experience? How do decide that what you "know" is true? Do you analyze the thought process that went into what you have decided is "true"?
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I take it you're not someone who'd ever had to give expert testimony?
An expert isn't someone who knows everything. That person doesn't exist, even regarding very narrow fields of knowledge.
I really don't understand what you mean by "Opinions are not truth. It's worse."
As an expert in my (very narrow) field I'm occasionally called to render an opinion. Depending on the question at hand I can sometimes say with absolute certainty that X is true. More often I can say that X is likely to be true, and give a confidence band. My opinions are not infallible, but in all cases, are much more likely to be correct than those of some random guy off the street.
If you had a question about a matter that I'm the expert in, would you listen to me or to the random guy? Would you conclude that you can't tell, and that a proven track record in that field has no value? Do you value knowledge and experience? How do decide that what you "know" is true? Do you analyze the thought process that went into what you have decided is "true"?
I gave a weeks testimony (1500 pages) in a wrongful death case and spent a week in US Federal Court defending myself and my company in another case that cost $250,000 in legal fees. I had my own expert witness as did my adversary. The jury didn't believe my expert but believed theirs. Two experts. I lost the case and my business. So yes, I've had some experience with expert witnesses.
What makes experts saying what they say worse than regular people, is that with the latter, you consider if they're telling the truth. With experts, you assume they are and could more easily be taken in by what they say which could be plain wrong even if not a lie. So lots of misinformation is spread around by experts. We listen to financial experts and invest our money only to see it disappear at the next economic slump. Didn't you get in on the real estate boom right before its bust in 2008. We have an operation on their advice and find out the the cure winds up worse than the disease because they didn't tell us all the problems that could occur beforehand. We get foreign affairs advice from international experts and find ourselves in a war we could have avoided if we avoided the experts. Experts can be very dangerous.
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I gave a weeks testimony (1500 pages) in a wrongful death case and spent a week in US Federal Court defending myself and my company in another case that cost $250,000 in legal fees. I had my own expert witness as did my adversary. The jury didn't believe my expert but believed theirs. Two experts. I lost the case and my business. So yes, I've had some experience with expert witnesses.
What makes experts saying what they say worse than regular people, is that with the latter, you consider if they're telling the truth. With experts, you assume they are and could more easily be taken in by what they say which could be plain wrong even if not a lie. So lots of misinformation is spread around by experts. We listen to financial experts and invest our money only to see it disappear at the next economic slump. Didn't you get in on the real estate boom right before its bust in 2008. We have an operation on their advice and find out the the cure winds up worse than the disease because they didn't tell us all the problems that could occur beforehand. We get foreign affairs advice from international experts and find ourselves in a war we could have avoided if we avoided the experts. Experts can be very dangerous.
Ok, so, answer my last couple of questions. Basically, what do you know, and how do you know you know it? If you consider experts dangerous, how do gain knowledge and make decisions about matters you have no personal knowledge?
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What makes experts saying what they say worse than regular people, is that with the latter, you consider if they're telling the truth.
In both cases the person may believe that they are telling the truth, it is just one is based on their field and one is based on their memory.
I have been in court cases where a witness gave a heartfelt rendition of what happened and obviously believed it, only to have their memory proved wrong.
The expert should be able to give reasons why it is true or likely to be true or could be true.
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We appear to be approaching a period of declining new instances and fatalities. Not tempting fate, but there will be, rightly, a review of the events and the timeline in the lead up to this human disaster. Not an anti-Trump (only), nor a Dems v Reps round of boxing, post - intended as a heads-up for a debate that will surely have repercussions. There are three distinct periods to be reviewed; the Dec19-early January, Jan23- up to the first Covid-19 fatality, and then early March up to and on from today. Not US centric, it's on both sides of the Atlantic and beyond.
I've excerpted a post from The Guardian , the link to the full article is below.
On 22 January, it was in this setting that the WHO emergency committee convened to make a pivotal decision on whether to advise the organisation to declare a “public health emergency of international concern” (PHEIC) – a formal red alert for the world.
The WHO had been sharing information with member states constantly since the first cluster of pneumonia cases was first identified in the Chinese city of Wuhan at the end of December, but declaring a PHEIC still had huge symbolic importance.
The WHO director general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, sat in the SHOC with his top advisers watching as a succession of speakers gave their views on the screens in front of them.
First there were reports from China, and then Japan and Thailand where cases had been recently confirmed. Then it was the turn of the 15 members and six advisers on the emergency committee, drawn from around the world.
The debate was highly technical but it had one critical issue at its heart. It was known by then that the virus had spread from person to person, but the question was how easily?
If human-to-human transmission was only happening in close quarters, in families, or between patients and health workers, then perhaps it could be largely contained without a worldwide alert, and all the global economic disruption that entailed. If the virus was spreading freely among communities, there was not a moment to lose.
The emergency committee was split down the middle on the question. So Tedros told it to convene again the next day, in the hope new data might create a consensus.
“Tedros’s only obligation under the law is to convene a committee but not to follow it. But he feels that politically he needs to get a unanimous decision before he acts or at least an overwhelming majority,” Lawrence Gostin, a professor of public health law at Georgetown University, said.
The second day’s meeting however, changed no one’s mind, and the impasse remained. Tedros had the committee adjourn pending further study and put it on notice to reconvene at short notice. A international health emergency was declared a week later, on 30 January, after clear evidence of community spread of Covid-19 had emerged.
[...]
In a hail of accusations hurled at the WHO in recent days, Trump has accused it of withholding critical information about the danger of Covid-19, and being under the control of China.
None of the accusations are supported by the facts.
China argued against declaring an emergency on 22 January, but could not have carried the argument alone. The other emergency members and advisers came were experts from the US, Thailand, Russia, France, South Korea, Canada, Japan, Netherlands, Australia, Senegal, Singapore, Saudi Arabia, Sweden, and New Zealand.
Their advice is confidential, but for the vote to have been split, several western, or western-aligned, representatives must have voted with Beijing.
While the emergency committee took a week to decide to declare a PHEIC, Trump spent more than a month after that playing down the threat to the US, during which the country fell weeks behind the rest of the world in diagnostic testing and stockpiling essential equipment.
There is no evidence to support Trump’s claim that the WHO hid information at China’s behest. The US is well represented in the top ranks of the organisation. There were more than a dozen officials from the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) embedded in the WHO in January and February.
US health leaders were part of regular conference calls, weekly or twice weekly, beginning on 7 January. From 10 January those calls included warnings about the risk of human-to-human transmission.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/18/caught-in-a-superpower-struggle-the-inside-story-of-the-whos-response-to-coronavirus
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If it arrived in the US at the same time, why did the cases pop up two weeks later? Could environment, weather, native genes, or other factors affect the incubation period? These are things worthy of study. They may help find a cure or vaccine.
The cases popped up later because there was no testing in place at the beginning to locate the cases. By the time people started dying, it was 2 weeks gone.
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Ok, so, answer my last couple of questions. Basically, what do you know, and how do you know you know it? If you consider experts dangerous, how do gain knowledge and make decisions about matters you have no personal knowledge?
I never said I don't listen to experts. I said I question what they say because I've been burned. I'm not a robot taking directions. You have to use some discernment when it comes to advice. After all, do you do everything you wife tells you to do? :)
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In both cases the person may believe that they are telling the truth, it is just one is based on their field and one is based on their memory.
I have been in court cases where a witness gave a heartfelt rendition of what happened and obviously believed it, only to have their memory proved wrong.
The expert should be able to give reasons why it is true or likely to be true or could be true.
That's true. But then, both experts in a trial representing opposite sides should give the same testimony. The truth is the truth. Obviously, that's not what happens. Is one of them lying? Are they both distorting the truth? Are they just cherry picking the facts that best represents their client's interests? Often, it's the latter. That's what makes experts so dangerous. Because we give them so much leeway and trust what they say as being irreproachable. Listening to non-experts, we just say well, they're lying. Or they're trolling us. Or they don't know what they're talking about. Their credibility is suspect from the beginning.
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We appear to be approaching a period of declining new instances and fatalities. Not tempting fate, but there will be, rightly, a review of the events and the timeline in the lead up to this human disaster. Not an anti-Trump (only), nor a Dems v Reps round of boxing, post - intended as a heads-up for a debate that will surely have repercussions. There are three distinct periods to be reviewed; the Dec19-early January, Jan23- up to the first Covid-19 fatality, and then early March up to and on from today. Not US centric, it's on both sides of the Atlantic and beyond.
I've excerpted a post from The Guardian , the link to the full article is below.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/18/caught-in-a-superpower-struggle-the-inside-story-of-the-whos-response-to-coronavirus
WHO had been in China's pocket for years. Who in WHO was getting paid off, I don't know. However, their rulings always supported China and their action was delayed deliberately to protect China as long as they could.
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The cases popped up later because there was no testing in place at the beginning to locate the cases. By the time people started dying, it was 2 weeks gone.
Testing has nothing to do with deaths. It was deaths that occured at different times. Why?
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People who are pushing for opening up the economy really soon should read this. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/17/us/coronavirus-testing-states.html
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Testing has nothing to do with deaths. It was deaths that occured at different times. Why?
Like I said until you test, you have no idea, even with deaths. Maybe all those early Covid deaths were chalked up to seasonal flu deaths.
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People who are pushing for opening up the economy really soon should read this. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/17/us/coronavirus-testing-states.html
It appears in NJ where I live, they're only testing people who appear sick. So what does that prove? There isn't enough tests or time to really do major testing of the general public. So what's the whole point of testing? Even if they test you today, tomorrow someone can cough on you and you get sick tomorrow. Will you test every other day? Are you to test 330,000,000 Americans every other day? My friend got the virus, stayed home to recover, never was tested, refused to go to the hospital because people die in hospitals. and is now recovering. If they test you and you have it, they tell you to stay home until you recover unless you really need to go to the hospital. Do I need a test to tell me that?
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It appears in NJ where I live, they're only testing people who appear sick. So what does that prove? There isn't enough tests or time to really do major testing of the general public. So what's the whole point of testing? Even if they test you today, tomorrow someone can cough on you and you get sick tomorrow. Will you test every other day? Are you to test 330,000,000 Americans every other day? My friend got the virus, stayed home to recover, never was tested, refused to go to the hospital because people die in hospitals. and is now recovering. If they test you and you have it, they tell you to stay home until you recover unless you really need to go to the hospital. Do I need a test to tell me that?
As you say, if someone shows the virus symptoms, there is not much point in testing them. just to confirm it.
The main benefit of testing is to catch asymptomatic or early-stage cases and tell them to stay at home.
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So what's the whole point of testing?
The point of testing to find out who is infected so that you can quarantine them to stop the infection spreading further.
You also need to trace all of their contacts, test them, and quarantine the positives.
This is basic pandemic control, as recommended by the WHO.
The US attempted to do this at the beginning of the outbreak, but failed. That is why there is a lockdown. Now you get to try again. But to do this successfully you need many more tests, and a whole army of contact-tracers.
(Most other countries are in the same position.)
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As you say, if someone shows the virus symptoms, there is not much point in testing them. just to confirm it.
The main benefit of testing is to catch asymptomatic or early-stage cases and tell them to stay at home.
What good is testing a small percentage of the population? In NJ they've tested 1 of 75 residents. That's since the beginning of testing weeks ago. So if 74 of 75 people have not been tested, how do you know who has the virus to isolate? 99% of the people weren't tested. Plus you could be tested today, be clean, and then get it tomorrow.
The only way I see how testing helps us is if you test on a truly random basis. Like polling, you only need a small sampling. You can estimate by extrapolation what's the percentage of infected in the whole population. That could help determine when to open a specific region for regular business. But right now, at least in NJ, they only testing key personnel like police, EMT, and nurses, or civilians who appear to have symptoms and show up at the testing line. So current testing, at least in NJ, will not provide general infection rates of the normal population. It also won't catch those who are infected in the normal population. It will only flag those key people who might be infected and shouldn't go to work and confirm a few infections of civilians who show up for the test.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/13/nyregion/coronavirus-testing.html
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The point of testing to find out who is infected so that you can quarantine them to stop the infection spreading further.
You also need to trace all of their contacts, test them, and quarantine the positives.
This is basic pandemic control, as recommended by the WHO.
The US attempted to do this at the beginning of the outbreak, but failed. That is why there is a lockdown. Now you get to try again. But to do this successfully you need many more tests, and a whole army of contact-tracers.
(Most other countries are in the same position.)
See my last post. In NJ, they tested 1 of 75 people. The other 74 were not tested. So how can you quarantine people who who are positive if 99% of them weren't tested?
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The point of testing to find out who is infected so that you can quarantine them to stop the infection spreading further.
You also need to trace all of their contacts, test them, and quarantine the positives.
This is basic pandemic control, as recommended by the WHO.
The US attempted to do this at the beginning of the outbreak, but failed. That is why there is a lockdown. Now you get to try again. But to do this successfully you need many more tests, and a whole army of contact-tracers.
(Most other countries are in the same position.)
Correct, this is the "Containment phase". It also requires follow up testing of contacts if someone tests positive for the virus.
The lack of testing capacity, either from the availability of the tests themselves or from the (unsuccessful) follow-up tracing of contacts, will result in the next phase.
That next phase is "Mitigation", e.g. by an indiscriminate lockdown.
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See my last post. In NJ, they tested 1 of 75 people. The other 74 were not tested. So how can you quarantine people who who are positive if 99% of them weren't tested?
I'm not familiar with the specifics of the NJ tests.
Were they done in the "Containment" phase?
Were they done (and how?) to prove the existence of the active virus, or are they serum tests to check for antibodies (indicating that the subject has been exposed to the virus in an earlier stage)?
P.S. a technical semantic comment, people who have not been proven to be infected can be placed in "Quarantine", while those who tested positive are placed in "Isolation".
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Correct, this is the "Containment phase". It also requires follow up testing of contacts if someone tests positive for the virus.
The lack of testing capacity, either from the availability of the tests themselves or from the (unsuccessful) follow-up tracing of contacts, will result in the next phase.
That next phase is "Mitigation", e.g. by an indiscriminate lockdown.
The only way to find those infected is to test the entire population at the same time, an impossible feat even if you have all the tests which no country does. Then you isolate everyone who has it. In 14 days, the whole population can get back to normal activity. There's no one left to spread it.
Of course, no country can test the entire population. That's why Phase 2 mitigation is required.
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The only way to find those infected is to test the entire population at the same time, an impossible feat even if you have all the tests which no country does. Then you isolate everyone who has it. In 14 days, the whole population can get back to normal activity. There's no one left to spread it.
Of course, no country can test the entire population. That's why Phase 2 mitigation is required.
Not really, in the early stages tracing of contacts of contacts of contacts, will soon cover almost all contageous subjects. But one needs to do it early on.
Most (all?) countries lacked testing capacity, so they soon had to move on to Mitigation.
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So how can you quarantine people who who are positive if 99% of them weren't tested?
You can't. Testing needs to be scaled up massively if you are ever going to come out of your lockdown.
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I'm not familiar with the specifics of the NJ tests.
Were they done in the "Containment" phase?
Were they done (and how?) to prove the existence of the active virus, or are they serum tests to check for antibodies (indicating that the subject has been exposed to the virus in an earlier stage)?
P.S. a technical semantic comment, people who have not been proven to be infected can be placed in "Quarantine", while those who tested positive are placed in "Isolation".
Your confusing questions have nothing to do with my statement. You can't find all those infected unless you test everyone and that's impossible.
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You can't. Testing needs to be scaled up massively if you are ever going to come out of your lockdown.
Indeed, but the goal in most cases was/is to avoid ICUs being overwhelmed, and in many countries that seems to be successful.
Only with a reproduction number substantially below 1.0 will the virus infections decline.
Once there is a vaccine in adequate quantities, which may take till February 2021, one can create herd immunity which will drive the reproduction number down.
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You can't find all those infected unless you test everyone and that's impossible.
Why?
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You can't. Testing needs to be scaled up massively if you are ever going to come out of your lockdown.
But no one is suggesting that we can test everyone. That's impossible. That's a political argument to blame Trump for not having enough testing. But no country can test all their people. Italy has performed tests at the highest rate. Only around 23 per thousand individuals. So 977 of the thousand were not tested.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/13/nyregion/coronavirus-testing.html
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Why?
How do you know who's infected if you haven't tested them?
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How do you know who's infected if you haven't tested them?
I'm asking why, in an advanced country, is it impossible to test everyone?
(You don't need to test everyone, but you do need to test a helluva lot more than you're testing now.)
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That's a political argument to blame Trump for not having enough testing.
On the contrary, a ramping up of testing is exactly what Trump is proposing in his 'Open Up America Again' plan.
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Alan ,
You just cant control yourself, 12 posts today alone. Recycling the same old. It's not a chat room , it's a forum. I've had too many PM 's complaining and sadly you just insist on the 'bull in a china shop' approach and carry on regardless.
Appeal to all who contributed here. Please don't feed they who troll if and when it's reopened. Now it's locked.
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Breaking radio silence. There is a really good paper I read this morning on a vaccine candidate being developed in China. The abstract and paper are here: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.046375v1 It's is going into clinical trials this week and is the third vaccine being tested in China. This particular vaccine is the first that has convincing animal data, showing clear protection. My hunch is that China will have the first vaccine that gets licensed for broad use. Huge amount of irony if this does happen.
Back to radio silence.
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A new type of email extortions is coming.
In emails that have been circulating in Germany for a few weeks now, the extortionists now write that they would infect all family members with the Sars-CoV-2 coronavirus. "Believe me, I can infect them all," it says in an email like this. To prevent this, the victims should transfer the equivalent of $ 4,000 in Bitcoin within 24 hours.
"We are now investigating several cases in which extortion emails with the threat of infection with the corona virus were sent," said Attorney General Thomas Goger from the Bavarian cybercrime central office ZCB. However, according to experts, criminals are sometimes in possession of private details of their victims. In order to make the extortion more threatening, the hackers send a password to an online account of their victims.
https://www.spiegel.de/netzwelt/web/cybercrime-hacker-drohen-familien-mit-corona-infektion-und-fordern-bitcoin-a-ac9e8945-edc1-456d-8a6b-32515e2293c1
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French couple who left their underage children at home and went on European trip was stopped by Bavarian police. They wanted to travel all over Europe.
A couple from France had apparently taken a Europe-wide city tour in the middle of the corona crisis - leaving three underage children at home. The 38-year-old and her 37-year-old partner had been stopped by a patrol in Siegsdorf in Bavaria last Friday, as the police headquarters in Upper Bavaria announced. The couple were in the car, had a toddler with them, and claimed to be on a city visit.
The family had previously been refused entry to Austria at the border at Bad Reichenhall. As it turned out, they were already being pursued in their home country: according to the police, the couple had simply left three other underage children in France. The children therefore turned to the French police, who arranged for the parents to be resettled. According to the investigators, the couple had already traveled 1,400 kilometers at the time of the check. How the family managed to enter Germany despite border controls is not known, said a police spokeswoman. In Bavaria, because of the exit restrictions, only those who have a valid reason can leave the house. A vacation trip is not included, so the police issued them a fine. This was processed by "depositing a security deposit on the spot", the report said. According to the spokeswoman, it was a three-digit sum.
https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/justiz/bayern-polizei-stoppt-paar-auf-europareise-minderjaehrige-kinder-daheim-gelassen-a-1b718f7e-8430-4841-aba1-d34099b1e50e
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On the French aircraft carrier "Charles de Gaulle", more than half of the 2000-man crew is infected with the virus.
The "Charles de Gaulle" had left her home port on January 21, 2019. It ran out to take part in "Operation Chammal" against the terrorist militia "Islamic State"; Operations in Syria and Libya were flown by the French aircraft carrier.
In mid-March this year she made a stopover in Brest on the Atlantic coast. The mission was about to end. In view of the increasing corona cases in the country, the usual family visits on board the aircraft carrier were canceled. But the soldiers were given permission to go ashore what was probably a fatal decision. In addition, 52 new crew members came on board before the "Charles de Gaulle" departed on March 16. That same evening, Macron announced a nationwide curfew of fourteen days.
Inside the huge aircraft carrier, it's very tight: the men sleep in bunk beds, sometimes up to twenty of them are in a cabin. The safety distance on the corridors and stair ladders of the "Charles de Gaulle" can hardly be kept. If you are traveling from deck to deck on the steep stairways, you have to hold on to the handrails so as not to fall. The commander of the "Charles de Gaulle" sticks to the continuation of the journey in spite of everything and writes a letter to the families of the soldiers on March 20th: "The aircraft carrier remains in use to defend the interests of France and to show our determination to act together with our allies. "
Meanwhile, scientists are deriving new knowledge from the involuntary floating laboratory test. More than half of the 1046 infected soldiers showed no or only very weak symptoms. A similar observation was made by the Americans, who are struggling with hundreds of infections on their aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt. "This means that there is likely to be a significant number of asymptomatic outcomes, particularly among younger people," said Jean-François Delfraissy, president of the Corona Crisis Scientific Council.
https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/corona-auf-flugzeugtraeger-charles-de-gaulle-schwimmender-laborversuch-a-1c6b4130-34a1-40ca-9ecf-d88668e942bc
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Breaking radio silence. There is a really good paper I read this morning on a vaccine candidate being developed in China. The abstract and paper are here: https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.046375v1 It's is going into clinical trials this week and is the third vaccine being tested in China. This particular vaccine is the first that has convincing animal data, showing clear protection. My hunch is that China will have the first vaccine that gets licensed for broad use. Huge amount of irony if this does happen.
Back to radio silence.
Why on earth radio silence? You are one of the few contributing to these Covid-19 threads that has a clue.
I've read several articles on the history of pandemics that state second waves, when they have struck, are often even more deadly. Perhaps you could give us your opinion?
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An informative film short from Cambridge Univ about the Spanish Flu and viruses in general, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3x1aLAw_xkY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3x1aLAw_xkY). About 11 min long.
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An informative film short from Cambridge Univ about the Spanish Flu and viruses in general, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3x1aLAw_xkY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3x1aLAw_xkY). About 11 min long.
An interesting film. My father often spoke of the "Pneumonic Flu" rather than the "Spanish Flu". Everyone was getting it and dying in the town he lived in so he hopped on a horse and left. The people dying were mainly younger people too. It is interesting that it was called the Spanish Flu because the Spanish media were the first to write about it when in fact it started elsewhere.
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More than 2,500 Covid-19 deaths in the US in the last 24 hours. Even if the rate slows a bit, we'll be well past 60,000 before the end of the month. 60,000 is the estimated number of flu deaths in the worst flu season in the past ten years, and we'll have taken only a month and a half with Covid-19 to surpass that total.
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For those who haven't seen it yet, here is a link to the latest update (http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates) from the University of Washington’s (Seattle) Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, whose data-driven models are preferred by the Trump Administration over the more theoretical ones produced by the Imperial College (London) model.
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For those who haven't seen it yet, here is a link to the latest update (http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates) from the University of Washington’s (Seattle) Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, whose data-driven models are preferred by the Trump Administration over the more theoretical ones produced by the Imperial College (London) model.
GIGO Garbage In = Garbage Out. What is the basis of their projections when this is the first time we've been through this? They're using a 1 per 1,000,000 cases as some sort of standard. Why not 2 or 5 out of a million? It's arbitrary. No one will really know until we start opening up and seeing what happens. At least with hurricanes, you have decades of storms you can put in your models to project where they are going. And even the models, and there are dozens of them, predict different tracks.
I think it's good that the CDC set up some conservative standard. But the president is letting the 50 governors decide what they want to do in their states. This gives us a great experiment to see what works best. By not having a one size fits all policy, we'll get to see what actually happens in the real world taking different paths. If some states jump the gun, then they'll suffer. But they will teach the rest of the states an important lesson. If some states open early, and we find that not too many problems occur, then we'll learn a different lesson. All we've been doing to date is arguing who's right based on no experience and little precedent. We're going to educate ourselves over the next few weeks in what really works and what really doesn't. It will also make it easier to handle if it comes back in the future.
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GIGO Garbage In = Garbage Out. What is the basis of their projections when this is the first time we've been through this? They're using a 1 per 1,000,000 cases as some sort of standard. Why not 2 or 5 out of a million? It's arbitrary.
Please confine this type of uninformed, tendentious, speculative comment to the political ("playpen") thread.
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More than 2,500 Covid-19 deaths in the US in the last 24 hours. Even if the rate slows a bit, we'll be well past 60,000 before the end of the month. 60,000 is the estimated number of flu deaths in the worst flu season in the past ten years, and we'll have taken only a month and a half with Covid-19 to surpass that total.
Let's not forget the isolation and distancing measures in place to slow down the virus. I shudder to think where we'd be at world wide if we just treated this like the flu.
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Please confine this type of uninformed, tendentious, speculative comment to the political ("playpen") thread.
My post is not political. It's questioning the science behind their theory Your post and their theory are as speculative as anyone else's. To argue that someone's theory of how we should do things is the only truth, is just a way to shut up someone else's viewpoint. It's a logical argument I'm making. Why should anyone take what some publication says as the truth. To not argue it's deficiencies is stacking the deck. And who are you to make that determination that they're correct? Frankly, if Jeremy decides to stop me from posting to this thread based on this, or the OP figures he should halt the thread again because he doesn't like opposing viewpoints, I'll be glad to go away and let you both preach to the choir on your own. It would be a pyrrhic victory proving your prejudice on how to determine truth.
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For those who haven't seen it yet, here is a link to the latest update (http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates) from the University of Washington’s (Seattle) Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, whose data-driven models are preferred by the Trump Administration over the more theoretical ones produced by the Imperial College (London) model.
A very interesting link. A lot of people don't understand exactly how this model works (including Anderson Cooper, who kept asking the guy how much testing we needed for the model to work, and the guy kept telling him that we didn't need any testing -- what we needed was to push down the infection rate to below 1, by any means, and we could contain the virus.)
One thing I take from this model, if it's correct, is that Georgia is in a heap of trouble.
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One thing I take from this model, if it's correct, is that Georgia is in a heap of trouble.
Yesterday's update of the University of Washington model apparently is what prompted President Trump to say at today's White House press briefing that he disagrees with Georgia Governor Brian Kemp's decision to relax the restrictions on certain nonessential businesses that inherently require individuals to be in close proximity, such as spas, beauty salons, tattoo parlors, and barbershops.
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A very interesting link. A lot of people don't understand exactly how this model works (including Anderson Cooper, who kept asking the guy how much testing we needed for the model to work, and the guy kept telling him that we didn't need any testing -- what we needed was to push down the infection rate to below 1, by any means, and we could contain the virus.)
One thing I take from this model, if it's correct, is that Georgia is in a heap of trouble.
I'm in Anderson's corner. Why not 0? Why not 2? 1 out of 1,000,000 is an arbitrary human contrived number. Viruses don't count.
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Yesterday's update of the University of Washington model apparently is what prompted President Trump to say at today's White House press briefing that he disagrees with Georgia Governor Brian Kemp's decision to relax the restrictions on certain nonessential businesses that inherently require individuals to be in close proximity, such as spas, beauty salons, tattoo parlors, and barbershops.
Political statements belong in the other thread. :)
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My post is not political. It's questioning the science behind their theory Your post and their theory are as speculative as anyone else's. To argue that someone's theory of how we should do things is the only truth, is just a way to shut up someone else's viewpoint. It's a logical argument I'm making. Why should anyone take what some publication says as the truth. To not argue it's deficiencies is stacking the deck. And who are you to make that determination that they're correct? Frankly, if Jeremy decides to stop me from posting to this thread based on this, or the OP figures he should halt the thread again because he doesn't like opposing viewpoints, I'll be glad to go away and let you both preach to the choir on your own. It would be a pyrrhic victory proving your prejudice on how to determine truth.
Let me make it easier for you: when you keep throwing Trump did that, Trump does this, etc, the post should go to the other side.
Questioning the models is reasonable, but you can't contain yourself to just that.
The models unfortunately depends on many factors and the statistical interpretations. By definition they cannot be exact but try to estimate based on what we know. Perfect? Of course not, it's already proven. Is there anything better? No.
Here is some basic look into why they differ: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/22/upshot/coronavirus-models.html?campaign_id=57&emc=edit_ne_20200422&instance_id=17870&nl=evening-briefing®i_id=67698600&segment_id=25772&te=1&user_id=a0c2889b363b214306ce6c8ef2136194
For example the IHME (washington) looks at how the disease evolved in other places, while others look at actual data of how the virus spreads, etc. So the latter have the potential to be more accurate but unfortunately there are still uncertainties regarding Covid.
Many will make adjustments based on actual deaths and there is an issue of reporting.
As I said before, I don't look at the actual absolute numbers but the timings and trends but to be honest, I don't need to, it's beyond my paygrade. I'm sure those who actually make decisions based on models know significantly more details.
One more thing, most will take into account the significant distancing; once this is loosened I doubt those numbers will be valid anymore.
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Let me make it easier for you: when you keep throwing Trump did that, Trump does this, etc, the post should go to the other side.
Questioning the models is reasonable, but you can't contain yourself to just that.
The models unfortunately depends on many factors and the statistical interpretations. By definition they cannot be exact but try to estimate based on what we know. Perfect? Of course not, it's already proven. Is there anything better? No.
Here is some basic look into why they differ: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/22/upshot/coronavirus-models.html?campaign_id=57&emc=edit_ne_20200422&instance_id=17870&nl=evening-briefing®i_id=67698600&segment_id=25772&te=1&user_id=a0c2889b363b214306ce6c8ef2136194
For example the IHME (washington) looks at how the disease evolved in other places, while others look at actual data of how the virus spreads, etc. So the latter have the potential to be more accurate but unfortunately there are still uncertainties regarding Covid.
Many will make adjustments based on actual deaths and there is an issue of reporting.
As I said before, I don't look at the actual absolute numbers but the timings and trends but to be honest, I don't need to, it's beyond my paygrade. I'm sure those who actually make decisions based on models know significantly more details.
One more thing, most will take into account the significant distancing; once this is loosened I doubt those numbers will be valid anymore.
Nothing wrong with rough guidelines. But they're rough. Having no real history, it's hard to set up the algorithms. It's a lot of guesswork. Think of the stock market. You'd think with all the thousands of experts and years of record keeping, they'd get projections right. Who would have thought oil would cost -$39 a barrel? Minus!!! That happened yesterday. No one wanted the oil. You had to pay people to take it off your hands. Like your garbage.
In any case, now we're going to have 50 experiments in 50 states to see who does best and who does worst and everywhere in between. Different time frames will be selected by the governors. There will be different rules, different monitoring, different testing. This is what's best about the American federal system. We get to experiment a lot and learn from each state. That can't happen in a centralized government nation where one rule affects the entire country. If the first state who opens up gets damaged because the virus picks up too much, the rest of the 49 states will back off and wait saving more people from infections and deaths. On the other hand, if the first state has no major problems, the other 49 states will move up the re-open dates and maybe save the US economy. We'll know pretty soon.
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Yesterday's update of the University of Washington model apparently is what prompted President Trump to say at today's White House press briefing that he disagrees with Georgia Governor Brian Kemp's decision to relax the restrictions on certain nonessential businesses that inherently require individuals to be in close proximity, such as spas, beauty salons, tattoo parlors, and barbershops.
That was actually quite smart comment. Put the tattoo salons on the 2050 re-open list.
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That was actually quite smart comment. Put the tattoo salons on the 2050 re-open list.
Maybe I can go to a tattoo parlor to get a haircut. I'm starting to look like Larry.
https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_fill,g_auto,h_1248,w_2220/f_auto,q_auto,w_1100/v1555321935/shape/mentalfloss/stooges_primary.jpg
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Sweden resisted a lockdown, and its capital Stockholm is expected to reach ‘herd immunity’ in weeks
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html
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Sweden resisted a lockdown, and its capital Stockholm is expected to reach ‘herd immunity’ in weeks
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html
One side effect of this approach will be reduced old age security payouts.
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Walgreens reports that they have now toilet paper, but are running low on large size condoms. That could have some serious implications in 2021.
Trojan Magnum Large Size Condoms
Due to unusually high demand, we're experiencing limited item availability and significant delays that will affect your delivery date.
Malaysia’s Karex Bhd makes one in every five condoms globally. Global supply has fallen by almost 50% while its stockpile is set to last for just another two months. Karex has not produced a single condom from its three Malaysian factories for more than a week due to a lockdown imposed by the government to halt the spread of the virus. That’s already a shortfall of 100 million condoms, normally marketed internationally by brands such as Durex, supplied to state healthcare systems such as Britain’s NHS or distributed by aid programs such as the UN Population Fund.
The company was given permission to restart production on Friday, but with only 50 per cent of its workforce, under a special exemption for critical industries. “It will take time to jumpstart factories and we will struggle to keep up with demand at half capacity,” Chief Executive Goh Miah Kiat told Reuters. “We are going to see a global shortage of condoms everywhere, which is going to be scary,” he said. “My concern is that for a lot of humanitarian programs deep down in Africa, the shortage will not just be two weeks or a month. That shortage can run into months.”
https://nationalpost.com/news/world/its-still-an-essential-to-have-global-shortage-of-condoms-as-covid-19-pandemic-hits-worlds-biggest-producers
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Blood-pressure drugs are in the crosshairs of COVID-19 research.
https://www.physiciansweekly.com/blood-pressure-drugs-are-in/
"Scientists are baffled by how the coronavirus attacks the body – killing many patients while barely affecting others.
A disproportionate number of patients hospitalized by COVID-19 .....have high blood pressure.
An estimated 100 million U.S. residents suffer from high blood pressure, which increases the risk of heart disease, stroke and kidney failure.
There is evidence that the drugs may increase the presence of an enzyme – ACE2 – that produces hormones that lower blood pressure by widening blood vessels. That’s normally a good thing. But the coronavirus also targets ACE2 and has developed spikes that can latch on to the enzyme and penetrate cells, researchers have found. So more enzymes provide more targets for the virus, potentially increasing the chance of infection or making it more severe."
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Interesting op-ed piece from the NYT - 'silent hypoxia'.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/opinion/coronavirus-testing-pneumonia.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
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One side effect of this approach will be reduced old age security payouts.
As a 75 year old, that was exactly what I was thinking about. :( Younger population, lower national health insurance, stronger stock. Of course, the guy who recommended and implemented this said they are of course concerned (sic) about the old age population and doing everything to help them. But the truth is, it may work out best for the old people as well. If the herd immunity works, that will protect them in the future. We could find out in a year or so, that Sweden's procedure is the best method. While the rest of us may have another bout with this disease next year, they may ride it out with no or little difficulty.
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Walgreens reports that they have now toilet paper, but are running low on large size condoms. That could have some serious implications in 2021.
https://nationalpost.com/news/world/its-still-an-essential-to-have-global-shortage-of-condoms-as-covid-19-pandemic-hits-worlds-biggest-producers
Unfortunately, that's not one of my problems. ???
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Blood-pressure drugs are in the crosshairs of COVID-19 research.
https://www.physiciansweekly.com/blood-pressure-drugs-are-in/
"Scientists are baffled by how the coronavirus attacks the body – killing many patients while barely affecting others.
A disproportionate number of patients hospitalized by COVID-19 .....have high blood pressure.
An estimated 100 million U.S. residents suffer from high blood pressure, which increases the risk of heart disease, stroke and kidney failure.
There is evidence that the drugs may increase the presence of an enzyme – ACE2 – that produces hormones that lower blood pressure by widening blood vessels. That’s normally a good thing. But the coronavirus also targets ACE2 and has developed spikes that can latch on to the enzyme and penetrate cells, researchers have found. So more enzymes provide more targets for the virus, potentially increasing the chance of infection or making it more severe."
Another thing I got to worry about. ACE inhibitors. Alan G: Have you come across any papers on this or research?
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Another thing I got to worry about. ACE inhibitors. Alan G: Have you come across any papers on this or research?
Yes, this is quite worrisome. I wonder if any cardiologists and pharmacists are aware of this finding.
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A very short monograph on Covid-19, by one Peter Kolchinsky.
While not technically alive, there's an evil genius to viruses that never ceases to amaze me. It's one reason I became a virologist. A recent Nature paper reveal a remarkable trick SARS-Cov-2 learnt that makes it nastier than the first SARS. Both viruses attach via their external spike protein to a protein on our cells called ACE2. Think of it as a particular doorknob that the virus knows how to turn. Every virus has a particular type of doorknob that it attaches to and turns so it can enter (infect) a cell.
For example, HIV has to turn two doorknobs: CD4 and typically CCR5. MERS attached to one called DPP4. All our cells are covered in all kinds of proteins that make them distinctive from one another. Those proteins aren’t there to let in viruses. They have all kinds of functions such as regulating blood pressure, our immune response, sugar levels in our blood, etc. But viruses have evolved to grab onto one or more proteins to gain entry into cells, where they hijack the cell’s machinery to make more viruses. (Viruses can't replicate on their own & hence, are not quite alive).
So what viruses see are a bunch of houses w/ varying doorknobs & they try to spread through the neighborhood (our bodies) looking for houses (cells) covered in the doorknobs that they know how to turn. HIV enters T cells b/c T cells are covered in CD4 & CCR5 doorknobs that HIV knows how to turn. That makes HIV the kind of virus that destroys our immune system. Well, the ACE2 doorknob that SARS-1 & SARS-2 use is present on a variety of cells, including those in our lungs & throat. SARS-1 would enter a person via a droplet in the air (from cough) & quickly start infecting lung cells, causing severe damage person could really feel (i.e. become symptomatic). In other words, SARS-1 quickly made its presence known. In some patients, SARS-1 would go into the upper airways to replicate from where it could spread to others with a cough (or just breathing). But b/c SARS-1 patients got very sick from all the virus replicating in their lungs, they were quarantined before others got close enough to get sneezed or coughed on.
SARS-2, on the other hand, takes up residence in the throat cells first, which doesn’t cause significant symptoms. The person can remain asymptomatic or might not think they have anything worse than a cold. And from that person’s throat it can readily spread to others. Over the course of a week, in some patients, it will move into the lung neighborhood and replicate just as SARS-1 would, causing severe symptoms, by which point the person is quarantined, but no matter since it had successfully spread.
So SARS-1 was a comparatively dumb virus. It went straight for the lungs, announced itself before it could spread to others, and so got social distanced into extinction. But SAR-2, the one plaguing us now, is stealthier, spreading first before revealing itself (and causing harm).
What’s the take-away for all of us? It’s that beating this virus means social distancing & wearing masks even if we think we aren’t infected. Because we might be. The virus might be replicating in our throats without us knowing (that’s its evil plan!), so put up a roadblock.
Peter Kolchinsky
Virologist, Author ' The Great American Drug Deal'
Also,
https://www.city-journal.org/coronavirus-vaccine
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Blood-pressure drugs are in the crosshairs of COVID-19 research.
https://www.physiciansweekly.com/blood-pressure-drugs-are-in/
"Scientists are baffled by how the coronavirus attacks the body – killing many patients while barely affecting others.
A disproportionate number of patients hospitalized by COVID-19 .....have high blood pressure.
An estimated 100 million U.S. residents suffer from high blood pressure, which increases the risk of heart disease, stroke and kidney failure.
There is evidence that the drugs may increase the presence of an enzyme – ACE2 – that produces hormones that lower blood pressure by widening blood vessels. That’s normally a good thing. But the coronavirus also targets ACE2 and has developed spikes that can latch on to the enzyme and penetrate cells, researchers have found. So more enzymes provide more targets for the virus, potentially increasing the chance of infection or making it more severe."
Ray, thank you for this link.
Since all hospitals with C19 patients have the information on their patient's medications, it would be relatively quick and simple for them to confirm or reject this theory.
Even better, anybody who has the clearance to access this data, could aggregate the information from all hospitals in his country or state and then draw the conclusions from a much larger sample.
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Breaking Radio Silence - of course I am masking up when I go to the store to stock up on provisions. I like to find interesting vendors who are making a contribution to the pandemic effort. I have purchased bow ties from Lisa Eaton who runs a small shop up in Maine. She started making cotton masks in answer to a request from local EMS folks. I purchased five of her masks about 10 days ago. I got an email from her today with the latest patterns and guess what ----- a very cool RGB mask with hex codes! Just what every photographer needs. Maybe you can even do a camera profile by taking a picture of the mask!!!
Here's a link that shows the picture: https://www.bowtie.com/#!/Adult-Face-Mask-Hex-Code-Color-Map/p/192059155/category=20799076 there are more nice patterns on the site as well.
I have no financial interest in Ms. Eaton's business.
Back to radio silence!
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Another thing I got to worry about. ACE inhibitors. ....
The current recommendations is to not stop them if you are already taking them.
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Yes, this is quite worrisome. I wonder if any cardiologists and pharmacists are aware of this finding.
You mentioned to me once that cardiologists put their patients on ACE inhibitors as a standard procedure. My wife was put on them, but she stopped because her regular doctor told her she didn't need it. Meanwhile I'm still on them because I supposedly had hypertension (high blood pressure) and last year I had a triple bypass. I'm going to have to move to a cave before this is over, if it ever ends.
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The current recommendations is to not stop them if you are already taking them.
That makes sense. Thanks for the input. I have a call out to my cardiologist. I suspect he will confirm that. It's just that it adds another risk factor and I have enough of them. I'm starting to feel like Bubble Boy from Seinfeld.
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Yes, this is quite worrisome. I wonder if any cardiologists and pharmacists are aware of this finding.
Probably but as I said above it doesn't really matter right because the recommendation is not to stop them (because of fear of corona). The benefit of taking them outweighs the risks, at least with the current info that we have. Even if this virus uses ACE2 to enter the cells, it's not clear that taking the ACEI will change your clinical course.
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The current recommendations is to not stop them if you are already taking them.
The current recommendation is most likely based on the old data preceding this new finding about C19 and ACE2.
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That makes sense. Thanks for the input. I have a call out to my cardiologist. I suspect he will confirm that. It's just that it adds another risk factor and I have enough of them. I'm starting to feel like Bubble Boy from Seinfeld.
You're welcome.
Talking to your cardiologist it's obviously the best course. ACEI are one of the few drugs that made pretty large differences in outcomes of heart failure and hypertension. So far your chances to have cardiovascular events, particularly if you stop them, are higher than having the corona and being seriously affected by it.
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The current recommendation is most likely based on the old data preceding this new finding about C19 and ACE2.
No, it's based exactly on this finding. That's why there is a comment about it.
There are actually 2 schools of thought, both based on some theoretical models and not so great quality studies.
1. ACEI are bad
- it's because ACEI inhibit the ACE receptor and the body, trying to compensate, overregulates the expressions of ACE2 which is used by SARS-Cov-2 to enter the cells
2. ACEI are good
- many of these patients that don't do well, have cardiovascular comorbidities, for which ACEI are beneficial.
There is no good data if any of these is more important than the other or they just balance out.
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763803
https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/JAHA.120.016509
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7154066/
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsr2005760
Again, once we know more these recs might change but with the current data the safest it's to just continue the course. Particularly if you are at home, because even then the chances are in your favor.
If there is a question mark it's for patients sick enough to come to the hospital, at which point the physicians there will be involved in the decision.
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You're welcome.
Talking to your cardiologist it's obviously the best course. ACEI are one of the few drugs that made pretty large differences in outcomes of heart failure and hypertension. So far your chances to have cardiovascular events, particularly if you stop them, are higher than having the corona and being seriously affected by it.
Every case is different. The article mentioned that if a person is getting ACE inhibitors for marginal reasons, then it might be worse. In my case, although I had triple bypass, I;ve had no heart attacks and its very strong and in good shape. It's just that my arteries were clogged. But that's been taken care of with bypass. The high blood pressure is rather mild in my case. My cardiologist likes prescribing drugs in his tool kit. But, For a change I'll listen to what he says and not second guess him like I do most experts. :) I've got a call out to him. Meanwhile, I'm going to wash my hands.
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Interesting op-ed piece from the NYT - 'silent hypoxia'.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/opinion/coronavirus-testing-pneumonia.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
That's a good article. I recommend that you look at the comments also, particularly from other physicians.
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That's a good article. I recommend that you look at the comments also, particularly from other physicians.
I just ordered a pulse oximeter that measure oxygen in your blood and gives your pulse. It's amazing how they're all backordered. I won't get mine until May, and that's with special priced shipping. I called Walgreens, and they have none in stock, even for prescription order.
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I just ordered a pulse oximeter that measure oxygen in your blood and gives your pulse. It's amazing how they're all backordered. I won't get mine until May, and that's with special priced shipping. I called Walgreens, and they have none in stock, even for prescription order.
I wonder if he had any stocks in pulseox making companies, this is just the cynical in me.
I though about getting one for myself some time ago but I gave up on that.
If you have a newer Samsung phone you can get your pulse oximetry with it, I don't know about iPhones. Likely not the most calibrated but good enough.
Every case is different. The article mentioned that if a person is getting ACE inhibitors for marginal reasons, then it might be worse. In my case, although I had triple bypass, I;ve had no heart attacks and its very strong and in good shape. It's just that my arteries were clogged. But that's been taken care of with bypass. The high blood pressure is rather mild in my case. My cardiologist likes prescribing drugs in his tool kit. But, For a change I'll listen to what he says and not second guess him like I do most experts. :) I've got a call out to him. Meanwhile, I'm going to wash my hands.
I have no intention on giving you medical advice on the internet (if it sounds like I'm giving medical advice, it's not my intention and you should disregard it). That and the fact that while I know a good amount about cardiology and HTN, this is mostly for inpatient and I'm not a cardiologist.
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https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763803
https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/JAHA.120.016509
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7154066/
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsr2005760
Again, once we know more these recs might change but with the current data the safest it's to just continue the course. Particularly if you are at home, because even then the chances are in your favor.
Thank you for posting those links, armand
Those articles describe situations for people with hypertension which is the most frequent condition for using ACEI. How about effect of C19 on people with reduced Ejection Fraction who are taking ACEI?
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Thank you for posting those links, armand
Those articles describe situations for people with hypertension which is the most frequent condition for using ACEI. How about effect of C19 on people with reduced Ejection Fraction who are taking ACEI?
There is some info regarding heart failure in there also.
Strictly on theoretical reasoning, stopping the ACEI/ARBs for heart failure can be more dangerous than stopping them for HTN. It's easier to add a different drug to control the blood pressure than to deal with decompensated heart failure. So if anything I would be very reluctant to stop them for heart failure if they have Covid19. Now, some of these patients will be in shock (with very low BP) or have significant kidney injury that we have to stop these medications anyway.
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Every case is different. The article mentioned that if a person is getting ACE inhibitors for marginal reasons, then it might be worse. In my case, although I had triple bypass, I;ve had no heart attacks and its very strong and in good shape. It's just that my arteries were clogged. But that's been taken care of with bypass. The high blood pressure is rather mild in my case. My cardiologist likes prescribing drugs in his tool kit. But, For a change I'll listen to what he says and not second guess him like I do most experts. :) I've got a call out to him. Meanwhile, I'm going to wash my hands.
Alan, you don't get a lifetime warranty with the bypass surgery. If the arteries were clogged and patients don't change their eating habits, they can get clogged again.
That is the reason why some patients need a second bypass surgery. Unless they follow Bill Clinton example and become vegans. Regardless of their political affiliation.
As you mention, prescribing ACEI is now a standard routine by most cardiologists. Dilation of the arteries and veins can't hurt, but I don't know if there are also negative side effects.
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Breaking Radio Silence - of course I am masking up when I go to the store to stock up on provisions.
Glad to hear that. When did you start?
Jeremy
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Glad to hear that. When did you start?
Jeremy
+1
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New York antibody study estimates 13.9% of residents have had the coronavirus, Gov. Cuomo says. That's 2.7 million people out of 19.4 residents.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/new-york-antibody-study-estimates-13point9percent-of-residents-have-had-the-coronavirus-cuomo-says.html
Note that NYC had the highest rates with upstate the lowest.
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The current recommendation is most likely based on the old data preceding this new finding about C19 and ACE2.
And here is another one that was sent to me. Still not the best study but better than anecdotal or theoretical.
https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1161/CIRCRESAHA.120.317134
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Some succint guidelines for treatment of Covid19
https://covid19treatmentguidelines.nih.gov/
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And here is another one that was sent to me. Still not the best study but better than anecdotal or theoretical.
https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/abs/10.1161/CIRCRESAHA.120.317134
Thank you!
It's interesting that their conclusion is contradictory with that first report.
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Thank you!
It's interesting that their conclusion is contradictory with that first report.
First reports were using either incomplete theory, or more often they saw an association but failed to account for confounders. Such as more people with HTN die, people who have HTN are more often on ACEI, therefore ACEI are bad. Maybe more people with HTN die because they are older or have other comorbidies or other unaccounted factors.
That being said, this study is better quality but remains a retrospective study. The gold standard is well designed double-blind, randomized prospective.
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One aspect of what you might call "fractured" openings like the one in Georgia, where a lot of people disagree on exactly what should be done or how the reopening should be handled: If a hairdresser opens in a town, and others don't, the ones that don't will be at a serious disadvantage competitively downstream, as former clients go to the open hairdresser. So there will be pressure for everyone to open, even those who fear infection and would rather not open. Same with those other businesses that the Georgia governor allowed to open -- gyms, barbershops, etc. I think it would be more equitable if a widely agreed-upon date were chosen, and then everybody opened.
A second thought: if a hairdresser opened, got infected, and passed it on to a few dozen clients, then maybe that wouldn't turn out to be a competitive advantage.
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New York antibody study estimates 13.9% of residents have had the coronavirus, Gov. Cuomo says. That's 2.7 million people out of 19.4 residents.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/23/new-york-antibody-study-estimates-13point9percent-of-residents-have-had-the-coronavirus-cuomo-says.html
Note that NYC had the highest rates with upstate the lowest.
The more were already infected the better but on the short term this doesn't change that much the sheer number of people getting sick from this in a very short amount of time, that you have to deal with. On the long term there is hope the total numbers are not going to go that high even with reopening, however we need more thorough testing to confirm this.
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Yawn. Wake me up when it passes the usual 50-60K deaths from regular flu every year (in the States).
Pleased to oblige. At what time do you want the wake up call, Sir?
50K tomorrow morning, 60K next week, 100K next month.
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Pleased to oblige. At what time do you want the wake up call, Sir?
50K tomorrow morning, 60K next week, 100K next month.
Should hit 50k this evening. According to the Worldometer count, we were at 49651 at mid-afternoon.
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Pleased to oblige. At what time do you want the wake up call, Sir?
50K tomorrow morning, 60K next week, 100K next month.
I would also add that the usual for flu is ~ 40k/year. The 60K was the highest in the last at least 10 years. There was another one at 50K and all others were around 40K or less: https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html
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A researcher working for the Federal government whpo heads infectious disease group as part of the Homeland Defense has a study they did on the half life of Covid 19. Apparently, the higher the temperature and humitdit, the less they last. So summertime weather should reduce spreading somewhat although he said that their research should not affect the CDC guidelines yet. It's really significant the difference. Also, sunlight and UV really kills them as does Isopropyl alcohol and some other common antisdeptic house cleaners. They were suppose to update which ones are best but I don't know when and where they're doing that.
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The more were already infected the better but on the short term this doesn't change that much the sheer number of people getting sick from this in a very short amount of time, that you have to deal with. On the long term there is hope the total numbers are not going to go that high even with reopening, however we need more thorough testing to confirm this.
We're already past the point where hospitals are now able to handle the case load, the main argument for flattening the curve. I think a study in Los Angeles shows high rates of infection there as well. I think the point is that once you realize there's an outbreak, it's already spread through the community. So isolation at that point is somewhat late. The other point is that the community is gaining natural immunity for future outbreaks. Wouldn't it be interesting if we find that next year, NYC and NJ are two areas that won't suffer as much with higher infection rates as other areas in the country that were hardly affected this year?
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A researcher working for the Federal government whpo heads infectious disease group as part of the Homeland Defense has a study they did on the half life of Covid 19. Apparently, the higher the temperature and humitdit, the less they last. So summertime weather should reduce spreading somewhat although he said that their research should not affect the CDC guidelines yet. It's really significant the difference. Also, sunlight and UV really kills them as does Isopropyl alcohol and some other common antisdeptic house cleaners. They were suppose to update which ones are best but I don't know when and where they're doing that.
Hot weather might help somewhat, but Florida was hit quite hard. Actually, the southern Florida with temperatures in 80's has been hit harder than the northern Florida. Also other warm countries like Spain, Italy and France although now flattening, are still showing significant number of new cases and deaths. And most infections are and will continue to be spread out indoors.
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Hot weather might help somewhat, but Florida was hit quite hard. Actually, the southern Florida with temperatures in 80's has been hit harder than the northern Florida. Also other warm countries like Spain, Italy and France although now flattening, are still showing significant number of new cases and deaths. And most infections are and will continue to be spread out indoors.
If someone coughs on you who is infected, it won't matter the temperature. You'll breathe it right in. The temperature and humidity have to do with the half life of how long the virus stays communicable on different surfaces. So if there was let's say some spit with virus on a door knob in the sun, it might last 5 minutes as opposed to 1 1/2 hours in the shade. Similar variables occur with tempos and humidity: the higher they are, the less time the virus can last on the surface. Something interesting i just thought of. Apparently higher temps and humidity help the virus once inside the body since our temps are 96 F degrees and near saturation in the mucus membranes of our body. But by then, the body cells may actually be "feeding" the virus so a different scenario is taking place from when they're "stuck" on an external surface.
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If someone coughs on you who is infected, it won't matter the temperature. You'll breathe it right in. The temperature and humidity have to do with the half life of how long the virus stays communicable on different surfaces. So if there was let's say some spit with virus on a door knob in the sun, it might last 5 minutes as opposed to 1 1/2 hours in the shade. Similar variables occur with tempos and humidity: the higher they are, the less time the virus can last on the surface. Something interesting i just thought of. Apparently higher temps and humidity help the virus once inside the body since our temps are 96 F degrees and near saturation in the mucus membranes of our body. But by then, the body cells may actually be "feeding" the virus so a different scenario is taking place from when they're "stuck" on an external surface.
Dr. Klein, have you checked this out with Dr. Trump. I understand he is now suggesting injections of disinfectant. Perhaps you two could work this out together. Maybe win that Nobel Prize he has been hankering for.
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As I noted earlier, we'll go past 50,000 deaths tonight. One month ago, on March 23rd, we had 550 deaths, so we've had better than 49,000 in a month. This according to Johns Hopkins and also the statistical site at Worldometer. If I wasn't such a cheerful guy, I'd be seriously bummed. When it was just modeling, it seemed kind of theoretical; but now the mound of bodies is building into a mountain. We'll be at 60,000 by Tuesday or Wednesday.
Edit: I forgot to put in the number from the JH and Worldometer sites: 49, 861 dead in the US as of the evening of April 23.
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Dr. Klein, have you checked this out with Dr. Trump. I understand he is now suggesting injections of disinfectant. Perhaps you two could work this out together. Maybe win that Nobel Prize he has been hankering for.
Frank I think you're being political. You know that's a no-no. On the other hand, I think alcohol as a disinfectant has wonderful possibilities to clear the virus out of your throat membranes. I wonder how effective a rum and Coke might be? :)
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Interesting graphic video of how pandemics spread based on different parameters. It runs about 20 minutes to cover all of them and is very interesting. I found it well worthwhile.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gxAaO2rsdIs
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The situation in the UK is staring to change. B&Q, a large DIY chain, has reopened stores. There will be transparent screens in front of till staff, strict social distancing, and control of the number of customers in a store at any one time. It will be interesting to see how this goes as many of the stores have a garden department and sell plants, yet garden centres had to close and still are, meaning the binning of millions of plants.
Jaguar Landrover is also going to start production again, and Taylor Woodrow, a large construction company, is starting up again.
There seems to be a feeling though that social distancing will be here for quite some time. For the 5th week, right across the country at 8pm last evening millions of people came out, kept apart and clapped, cheered and banged saucepans for all those working in the National Heath Service who have had to change so fast and care for so many, yet keep their emotions under control and keep safe themselves. As one nurse said each one who dies from the virus has a name, is a real person, has friends and relations, and it is so sad to lose them.
The community help has been amazing, with so many going out of their way to help those who are self-isolating for whatever reason, by doing shopping, ringing up for a chat to keep in touch and so much more. We have people making scrubs (uniforms) for health staff, with Lions and Rotary providing money for the material and patterns, and so much else happening.
Best wishes,
Jonathan
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Frank I think you're being political. You know that's a no-no.
No, I was only interested in your scientific analysis of injecting disinfectants into the bodies of COVID-19 patients.
Another thing Dr. Trump suggested yesterday was using bright light inside the body, which got me thinking about my last colonoscopy. The doctor used a probe with a little light bulb at the end to illuminate the colon so he could look for anomalies with his camera. So I thought maybe we could replace the little light bulb with a very powerful light bulb, and then shove the probe really far up there until it reached the lungs and then shine a tremendous amount of light on the coronoviruus to kill them. What do you think?
Speaking of bright lights, I remember something Dr. Trump said during the 2016 debates. Do you remember when he was talking about the nuclear triad, he asked why we have nuclear weapons but never use them? Then I remembered the news reels from the 1940s when they were testing nuclear bombs. All the army guys wore really powerful sunglasses because of the tremendous pulse of light that is released when a nuclear weapon goes off. Voila! Why don't we detonate nuclear bombs in ICUs? I think that bright pulse of light might kill the virus, and it would be non-invasive. As an added bonus, we could treat more than one patient at a time. I know what you are going to say: what about the radioactivity? That's where the radiologists get involved. Since radiologists know a lot about radioactivity, I am sure they could come up with a way to mitigate it. It would be a multi-disciplinary approach using radiologists and pulmonologists.
I don't want your political analysis, I want your scientific analysis. You are an expert, having watched YouTube a lot, and are poised to give some insightful analysis to these medical recommendations.
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Coronavirus has been detected on particles of air pollution by scientists investigating whether this could enable it to be carried over longer distances and increase the number of people infected:
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2020/apr/24/coronavirus-detected-particles-air-pollution
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No, I was only interested in your scientific analysis of injecting disinfectants into the bodies of COVID-19 patients.
Another thing Dr. Trump suggested yesterday was using bright light inside the body, which got me thinking about my last colonoscopy. The doctor used a probe with a little light bulb at the end to illuminate the colon so he could look for anomalies with his camera. So I thought maybe we could replace the little light bulb with a very powerful light bulb, and then shove the probe really far up there until it reached the lungs and then shine a tremendous amount of light on the coronoviruus to kill them. What do you think?
Speaking of bright lights, I remember something Dr. Trump said during the 2016 debates. Do you remember when he was talking about the nuclear triad, he asked why we have nuclear weapons but never use them? Then I remembered the news reels from the 1940s when they were testing nuclear bombs. All the army guys wore really powerful sunglasses because of the tremendous pulse of light that is released when a nuclear weapon goes off. Voila! Why don't we detonate nuclear bombs in ICUs? I think that bright pulse of light might kill the virus, and it would be non-invasive. As an added bonus, we could treat more than one patient at a time. I know what you are going to say: what about the radioactivity? That's where the radiologists get involved. Since radiologists know a lot about radioactivity, I am sure they could come up with a way to mitigate it. It would be a multi-disciplinary approach using radiologists and pulmonologists.
I don't want your political analysis, I want your scientific analysis. You are an expert, having watched YouTube a lot, and are poised to give some insightful analysis to these medical recommendations.
Your post is political. I wonder if the OP will object to a political post or will he ignore it because he agrees with you? We'll see how honest he is. In the meanwhile I'll answer your post in the other thread.
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Frank I think you're being political. You know that's a no-no. On the other hand, I think alcohol as a disinfectant has wonderful possibilities to clear the virus out of your throat membranes. I wonder how effective a rum and Coke might be? :)
I think if you add a jigger of Lysol to that drink...you might have something there. ;D
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An interesting new study, published yesterday (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-04-23-COVID19-Report-16.pdf) by researchers at Imperial College (London), models the efficacy of various testing strategies for controlling COVID-19 infections. Bottom line: testing healthcare workers is a high priority for this high-risk group while testing of the general population probably does not confer a significant incremental benefit in preventing the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus over self-isolation of symptomatic individuals and contact-tracing.
The World Health Organization has called for increased molecular testing in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, but different countries have taken very different approaches. We used a simple mathematical model to investigate the potential effectiveness of alternative testing strategies for COVID-19 control. Weekly screening of healthcare workers (HCWs) and other at-risk groups using PCR or point-of-care tests for infection irrespective of symptoms is estimated to reduce their contribution to transmission by 25-33%, on top of reductions achieved by self-isolation following symptoms. Widespread PCR testing in the general population is unlikely to limit transmission more than contact-tracing and quarantine based on symptoms alone, but could allow earlier release of contacts from quarantine. Immunity passports based on tests for antibody or infection could support return to work but face significant technical, legal and ethical challenges. Testing is essential for pandemic surveillance but its direct contribution to the prevention of transmission is likely to be limited to patients, HCWs and other high-risk groups.
It appears this type of model could help those designing testing regimes to determine how best to efficiently deploy constrained resources, but presumably widespread testing of the general population is still necessary to make informed decisions about when and where it is safe to ease current governmental restrictions.
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Frank I think you're being political. You know that's a no-no. On the other hand, I think alcohol as a disinfectant has wonderful possibilities to clear the virus out of your throat membranes. I wonder how effective a rum and Coke might be? :)
People need to be more critical and not jump at every senseless thing said in the wild.
The virus is already in the cells. To destroy you have to get rid of those cells while making sure it doesn't go somewhere else in the process. So you can enjoy your alcoholic drink but it won't do much for the virus. A far stretched use would be if you have been just exposed to take a shot of 60%+ immediately after each event; I don't see this going too well.
Regarding the injection of alcohol or UV light inside to kill the virus, that's just DUMB.
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An interesting new study, published yesterday (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-04-23-COVID19-Report-16.pdf) by researchers at Imperial College (London), models the efficacy of various testing strategies for controlling COVID-19 infections. Bottom line: testing healthcare workers is a high priority for this high-risk group while testing of the general population probably does not confer a significant incremental benefit in preventing the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus over self-isolation of symptomatic individuals and contact-tracing.
It appears this type of model could help those designing testing regimes to determine how best to efficiently deploy constrained resources, but presumably widespread testing of the general population is still necessary to make informed conditions about when and where it is safe to ease current governmental restrictions.
With governors starting to open up their states, we're going to find out soon which methods are better. The other variable is herd immunity. Unless the virus dies out on its own like the regular flu, it probably will continue to move through the community infecting most people. How fast and how extensive depends on how fast things are opened and isolation is reduced. There's a lot of speculation. But actual results from governor actions will tell as more. Me? I'm staying hidden at home for the most part until it plays out. Fortunately, I don't work. So while being old makes me more vulnerable, it also means I can take less chances.
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People need to be more critical and not jump at every senseless thing said in the wild.
The virus is already in the cells. To destroy you have to get rid of those cells while making sure it doesn't go somewhere else in the process. So you can enjoy your alcoholic drink but it won't do much for the virus. A far stretched use would be if you have been just exposed to take a shot of 60%+ immediately after each event; I don't see this going too well.
Regarding the injection of alcohol or UV light inside to kill the virus, that's just DUMB.
So active alcoholics might be more immune to this disease than sober folks? That's an interesting concept. So let's carry that one step forward. Let's say you're not an alcoholic but you're outside and someone coughs in your face. So you pull out your flask of Covid-12 Lite and take a swig and rinse your mouth and throat. Then spit it out in the street. Maybe you have a eyedropper of antiseptic that doesn't hurt the eyes. But it's strong enough to to kill virus. If alcohol can kill the virus on a doorknob, a good rinse could kill it in your mouth before it takes root. Is that far fetched? I don;t think so. But brainstorming is about throwing out wild ideas to get the group thinking about how to resolve difficult problems.
[Moderator's edit: I have deleted spurious and irrelevant political comment from this post. Alan, you are most definitely on a final warning. Do not do this again.]
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a warm salt water gargle would be more effective i think.
To use ethanol, you need over 70 % e.g. >140 proof. So a gargle with everclear..... and no evidence that it works better than salt.
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So active alcoholics might be more immune to this disease than sober folks? That's an interesting concept. So let's carry that one step forward. Let's say you're not an alcoholic but you're outside and someone coughs in your face. So you pull out your flask of Covid-12 Lite and take a swig and rinse your mouth and throat. Then spit it out in the street. Maybe you have a eyedropper of antiseptic that doesn't hurt the eyes. But it's strong enough to to kill virus. If alcohol can kill the virus on a doorknob, a good rinse could kill it in your mouth before it takes root. Is that far fetched? I don;t think so. But brainstorming is about throwing out wild ideas to get the group thinking about how to resolve difficult problems.
[Moderator's edit: I have deleted spurious and irrelevant political comment from this post. Alan, you are most definitely on a final warning. Do not do this again.]
Unlikely, but I'll humor you and get one step further. First, I'm not convinced that you'll find something good enough for the eyes. Second, what do you do with the nose?
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The U.S. federal Food and Drug Administration published a special alert today (https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-safety-and-availability/fda-cautions-against-use-hydroxychloroquine-or-chloroquine-covid-19-outside-hospital-setting-or#5ea3584564d51) warning physicians and patients about safety concerns regarding the outpatient use of the drugs hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine that President Trump previously proposed as a possible "game-changer" for treating COVID-19 infections.
The FDA is aware of reports of serious heart rhythm problems in patients with COVID-19 treated with hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine, often in combination with azithromycin and other QT prolonging medicines. We are also aware of increased use of these medicines through outpatient prescriptions. Therefore, we would like to remind health care professionals and patients of the known risks associated with both hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine. We will continue to investigate risks associated with the use of hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine for COVID-19 and communicate publicly when we have more information.
While these drugs have not been shown to be effective in controlled studies, apparently there is some anecdotal clinical evidence of their utility and physicians may still use them in the United States hospitals under a federal Emergency Use Authorization.
They are being studied in clinical trials for COVID-19, and we authorized their temporary use during the COVID-19 pandemic for treatment of the virus in hospitalized patients when clinical trials are not available, or participation is not feasible, through an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA).
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The U.S. federal Food and Drug Administration published a special alert today (https://www.fda.gov/drugs/drug-safety-and-availability/fda-cautions-against-use-hydroxychloroquine-or-chloroquine-covid-19-outside-hospital-setting-or#5ea3584564d51) warning physicians and patients about safety concerns regarding the outpatient use of the drugs hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine that President Trump previously proposed as a possible "game-changer" for treating COVID-19 infections.
While these drugs have not been shown to be effective in controlled studies, apparently there is some anecdotal clinical evidence of their utility and physicians may still use them in the United States hospitals under a federal Emergency Use Authorization.
There are multiple ongoing trials but the current in hospital experience is not good so in many places they are only used in trials.
This a retrospective study, not vetted yet, which shows harm: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.16.20065920v2
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Unlikely, but I'll humor you and get one step further. First, I'm not convinced that you'll find something good enough for the eyes. Second, what do you do with the nose?
That's a good point. But not every remedy protects everywheres. After all, people gargle with Listerine or as someone mentioned salt water. Those don't treat the nose either. But both afford some protection. So a double Red Heart Rum (151 proof - 75.5% alcohol) and a touch of coke might kill germs in your mouth and pharynx and give you a nice buzz at the same time.
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In my town in NJ, 38 or 76% of the 50 people who have died from Covid 19 were residents of long-term care facilities.
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Interesting UK report about using sleep disorder equipment in treating Covid-19, https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-hospital-cuts-covid-19-death-rates-with-black-boxes-for-sleep-disorder-11977789 (https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-hospital-cuts-covid-19-death-rates-with-black-boxes-for-sleep-disorder-11977789).
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That's a good point. But not every remedy protects everywheres. After all, people gargle with Listerine or as someone mentioned salt water. Those don't treat the nose either. But both afford some protection. So a double Red Heart Rum (151 proof - 75.5% alcohol) and a touch of coke might kill germs in your mouth and pharynx and give you a nice buzz at the same time.
Do we know how much protection gargling with those actually provides? The example you gave of someone coughing in your face is pretty specific, I can't see how it would apply generally. Most of the time, people have no idea what they've just breathed in.
Do we know how long it takes for the virus to migrate from a droplet into a cell once the droplet is deposited on throat tissue? Is it a second, a minute, 5 minutes, I have no clue. Once it's inside a cell, I don't see how gargling would accomplish anything.
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Do we know how much protection gargling with those actually provides? The example you gave of someone coughing in your face is pretty specific, I can't see how it would apply generally. Most of the time, people have no idea what they've just breathed in.
Do we know how long it takes for the virus to migrate from a droplet into a cell once the droplet is deposited on throat tissue? Is it a second, a minute, 5 minutes, I have no clue. Once it's inside a cell, I don't see how gargling would accomplish anything.
I have no idea. Neither do the experts, yet. Just as they're now discovering that ventilators are killing more people than some less intrusive methods, so many of the specifics about this disease are just guesstimates at this time. That's why all the fervent demands of what people should do are theory or just plain guesses. In a few months, we'll have much better understanding of how and where it started, how it spread, to what degree, what measures for cure are best, medicines and vaccines, and how to prepare for future outbreaks. We'll also have to face the economic damage the disease is doing and how to recover which may turn out to be a more daunting task.
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I have no idea. Neither do the experts, yet. Just as they're now discovering that ventilators are killing more people than some less intrusive methods, so many of the specifics about this disease are just guesstimates at this time. That's why all the fervent demands of what people should do are theory or just plain guesses. In a few months, we'll have much better understanding of how and where it started, how it spread, to what degree, what measures for cure are best, medicines and vaccines, and how to prepare for future outbreaks. We'll also have to face the economic damage the disease is doing and how to recover which may turn out to be a more daunting task.
Thanks, but we heard you the first time.
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.... ventilators are killing more people than some less intrusive methods,
...
Stop reading between the lines. Ventilators generally don't kill people (unless mismanaged). There is no clear data besides the fact that if a patient ends up on ventilators his chances of survival are not that good. But they die because they were too sick, not because of the ventilator.
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So active alcoholics might be more immune to this disease than sober folks? That's an interesting concept. So let's carry that one step forward. Let's say you're not an alcoholic but you're outside and someone coughs in your face. So you pull out your flask of Covid-12 Lite and take a swig and rinse your mouth and throat. Then spit it out in the street. Maybe you have a eyedropper of antiseptic that doesn't hurt the eyes. But it's strong enough to to kill virus. If alcohol can kill the virus on a doorknob, a good rinse could kill it in your mouth before it takes root. Is that far fetched? I don;t think so. But brainstorming is about throwing out wild ideas to get the group thinking about how to resolve difficult problems.
[Moderator's edit: I have deleted spurious and irrelevant political comment from this post. Alan, you are most definitely on a final warning. Do not do this again.]
Apart from fermented drinks, it may be beneficial to eat also fermented vegetables, particularly sauerkraut. Experts say people are turning to the acidic dishes to protect themselves against the COVID-19 bug, mainly to boost their immune system. Personally, I would rather ingest sauerkraut than Lysol.
Sauerkraut sales surged 960 percent year-over-year in the week of March 29 while overall grocery sales rose just 62.5 percent, according to e-commerce data from software firm Bloomreach.
Sauerkraut is one of the most common and oldest forms of preserved cabbage (Brassica oleracea convar capitata var sabauda L) or pointed cabbage (Brassica oleracea var capitata f alba). It is produced by the process of malolactic fermentation and can be traced back as a food source to the 4th century BC. Sauerkraut contains a large quantity of lactic acid; vitamins A, B, C, and K; and minerals and has few calories (about 80 kJ/100g). Even today in Germany, approximately 200 000 tons of cabbage are processed into sauerkraut. Between 1975 and 1980, the per capita use of sauerkraut in Germany stayed constant at 2.0 to 2.1 kg per year. Sauerkraut is also very popular in the Untied States and France, where it is also known as “German Kraut” or “Cassoulet.” Hippocrates described sauerkraut as a health food and medicinal remedy in his writing. The Romans have also valued the beneficial effect of sauerkraut. The writer Plinius Secundus wrote, “The cabbage helps to provide plenty of milk for breastfeeding mothers, it helps for cloudy eyes, positively affects headaches and is supposed to work as a cure after alcohol consumption.”
The studies found that sauerkraut induced inflammation locally, but repeated intake may result in diarrhea.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4268643/
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Situation in Portugal has been improving slowly. The current state of emergency will end May 2. The plan now is to reopen some activities very slowly, carefully, and in a phased approach: 4 May, 18 May, 1 June, several segments will reopen, with constant monitoring and evaluation. Mostly shops, restaurants, commerce, companies. Always with limitations in capacity and number of people, the key is to avoid agglomerations of people.
Many companies will continue to work from home, but many others will need to go back to business. Even when beaches reopen 1 June, there will be limitation of people and a minimum distance between towels.
It is clear and expected that the infection rate will go up again, but as long as it is under the health system capacity, and with effective protection measures in place for the more exposed and at risk, it will work ok I think.
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It seems that outside of this circle, the general public is not googling for Corona virus as much as before.
They google even less for Covid-19.
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Situation in Portugal has been improving slowly. The current state of emergency will end May 2. The plan now is to reopen some activities very slowly, carefully, and in a phased approach: 4 May, 18 May, 1 June, several segments will reopen, with constant monitoring and evaluation. Mostly shops, restaurants, commerce, companies. Always with limitations in capacity and number of people, the key is to avoid agglomerations of people.
Many companies will continue to work from home, but many others will need to go back to business. Even when beaches reopen 1 June, there will be limitation of people and a minimum distance between towels.
It is clear and expected that the infection rate will go up again, but as long as it is under the health system capacity, and with effective protection measures in place for the more exposed and at risk, it will work ok I think.
May 4th, my prediction of weeks ago. Glad to see everyone falling in line.
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May 4th, my prediction of weeks ago. Glad to see everyone falling in line.
By May 4, our ice fishing season will be finished.
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By May 4, our ice fishing season will be finished.
Be happy. They'll be bigger next year.
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Be happy. They'll be bigger next year.
Not if everybody goes fishing this summer.
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The World Health Organization warned governments yesterday against issuing "immunity passports" (https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/immunity-passports-in-the-context-of-covid-19) to survivors of COVID-19 infections, pointing out that "[t]here is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection."
Many countries are now testing for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies at the population level or in specific groups, such as health workers, close contacts of known cases, or within households. WHO supports these studies, as they are critical for understanding the extent of―and risk factors associated with―infection. These studies will provide data on the percentage of people with detectable COVID-19 antibodies, but most are not designed to determine whether those people are immune to secondary infections. . . .
At this point in the pandemic, there is not enough evidence about the effectiveness of antibody-mediated immunity to guarantee the accuracy of an “immunity passport” or “risk-free certificate.” People who assume that they are immune to a second infection because they have received a positive test result may ignore public health advice. The use of such certificates may therefore increase the risks of continued transmission.
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Breaking Radio Silence to Correct a Misperception
While these drugs have not been shown to be effective in controlled studies, apparently there is some anecdotal clinical evidence of their utility and physicians may still use them in the United States hospitals under a federal Emergency Use Authorization.
The Emergency Use Authorization has nothing to do with this. Once a drug has been approved for use by the FDA, a physician may prescribe it if he/she deems it beneficial for the patient. Hydroxychloroquine was being prescribed 'off label' by community physicians for both their own and patients use in the absence of any clinical data. Lupus and Rheumatoid Arthritis patients for whom the drug does in fact work are facing shortages and may have to go off treatment. The FDA Emergency Use Authorization was nothing more than a political document that had little or no regulatory meaning. 'Off label' use prescribing happens all the time and there have been big fines for companies who were found to be promoting such use (that is forbidden under the FDA laws and regulations)
Back to lurking.
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The World Health Organization warned governments yesterday against issuing "immunity passports" (https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/immunity-passports-in-the-context-of-covid-19) to survivors of COVID-19 infections, pointing out that "[t]here is currently no evidence that people who have recovered from COVID-19 and have antibodies are protected from a second infection."
Dr. Birx advising the administration commented on this issue the other day when she was questioned about it. She said while there are no studies yet, her experience with viruses are that once you get it, the body does produce antibodies that protects against re-infection. I believe she said that's true in about 90% of the cases. So we probably will find that people are protected if they caught it once. Of course, viruses also mutate like seasonal influenza. So you're not protected against mutated strains.
I also recall reading an article the other day where plasma from a previously infected patient of Covid 19 containing the antibodies had already save a patient with Covid 19. The story I heard was that it reversed the dire condition within hours.
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Dr. Birx advising the administration commented on this issue the other day when she was questioned about it. She said while there are no studies yet, her experience with viruses are that once you get it, the body does produce antibodies that protects against re-infection. I believe she said that's true in about 90% of the cases. So we probably will find that people are protected if they caught it once. Of course, viruses also mutate like seasonal influenza. So you're not protected against mutated strains.
I also recall reading an article the other day where plasma from a previously infected patient of Covid 19 containing the antibodies had already save a patient with Covid 19. The story I heard was that it reversed the dire condition within hours.
There is another case that is hardly ever mentioned. According to epidemiologist Seth Berkley (head of Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance) in his TED interview, it sometimes happens that even for a virus that does NOT mutate, the human immune system can lose its effectiveness against that virus and infection can re-occur. During that discussion they did not speak about this much, it was an aside in the middle of another point. I've mentioned it before but TED's series of interviews about Covid-19 are worth listening to, https://www.ted.com/podcasts/ted-interview (https://www.ted.com/podcasts/ted-interview).
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The FDA Emergency Use Authorization was nothing more than a political document that had little or no regulatory meaning.
Thanks for explaining this. The FDA alert was worded in a way that led me to conclude the Emergency Use Authorization was a requirement imposed pursuant to the agency's regulatory authority.
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Stop reading between the lines. Ventilators generally don't kill people (unless mismanaged). There is no clear data besides the fact that if a patient ends up on ventilators his chances of survival are not that good. But they die because they were too sick, not because of the ventilator.
Today, I've heard some anecdotal evidence from a doctor in a hospital in my country that 90% of the COVID-19 patients in their ICU die, despite the ventilator. These patients are really really ill when they are admitted to the ICU. Only those in very good condition before falling ill stand a chance.
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There are multiple ongoing trials but the current in hospital experience is not good so in many places they are only used in trials.
This a retrospective study, not vetted yet, which shows harm: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.16.20065920v2
Indeed:
CONCLUSIONS: In this study, we found no evidence that use of hydroxychloroquine, either with or without azithromycin, reduced the risk of mechanical ventilation in patients hospitalized with Covid-19. An association of increased overall mortality was identified in patients treated with hydroxychloroquine alone. These findings highlight the importance of awaiting the results of ongoing prospective, randomized, controlled studies before widespread adoption of these drugs.
Not sure if these initial results will inspire more tests ...
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Today, I've heard some anecdotal evidence from a doctor in a hospital in my country that 90% of the COVID-19 patients in their ICU die, despite the ventilator. These patients are really really ill when they are admitted to the ICU. Only those in very good condition before falling ill stand a chance.
That was probably true in the beginning but I think the numbers look better now, at least from what I heard elsewhere and what we have in my hospital. Still worse than average for ARDS though which can be ~ 40%. Where the ICUs got hit hard the patients did even worse, for example NYC was close to 90% but others places did better, Seattle which had fewer numbers had some initial reports of 50%. The studies from China hover around the 70-80%.
The therapeutic approach changes also, trying to get away from earlier intubation if possible now that many places can contain well enough the aerosolization with high flow rate on HFNC (high flow nasal cannula) or BiPAP/CPAP. So some of this intubations were performed sooner than later to avoid infecting the others. There are also various vent strategies being attempted, the consensus remains to go for the standard care and adjust from there.
But from that to get to, as some press my suggest, that ventilators kill it's still a long road. It's like you say more people who go to the hospital die than those who stay at home, therefore the hospital will kill you.
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Just a followup from our discussion on ACE inhibitors for high blood pressure. Well, maybe it was on the other thread. I forget. In any case, it's suppose to be worse if you're taking them and get the virus. Anyway, I checked with my cardiologist. He told me I have to stay on them. If I get the virus and go to the hospital, then they'll decide there if they take me off them.
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Breaking Radio Silence
Indeed:
Not sure if these initial results will inspire more tests ...
unfortunately, hydroxychloroquine trials are still be scheduled and some large efforts in health care workers are underway. Duke University has a $50M grant to set up a registry and trial. I'm tracking this stuff in my daily newsletter. There are about 50 trials on this world wide but I don't have an idea about the number of patients enrolled. there has also been a high use of hydroxychloroquine in community settings judged by Rx prescriptions written. Patients suffering from lups and rheumatoid arthritis are having trouble getting their drugs (and they need them for treatment).
Back to radio silence.
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Breaking Radio Silence
unfortunately, hydroxychloroquine trials are still be scheduled and some large efforts in health care workers are underway. Duke University has a $50M grant to set up a registry and trial. I'm tracking this stuff in my daily newsletter. There are about 50 trials on this world wide but I don't have an idea about the number of patients enrolled. there has also been a high use of hydroxychloroquine in community settings judged by Rx prescriptions written. Patients suffering from lups and rheumatoid arthritis are having trouble getting their drugs (and they need them for treatment).
Back to radio silence.
Alan, for God's sake stop this ridiculous, pretentious "radio silence" nonsense. Like everyone else here, you post when you feel like it and don't post in between.
Jeremy
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Alan, for God's sake stop this ridiculous, pretentious "radio silence" nonsense. Like everyone else here, you post when you feel like it and don't post in between.
Jeremy
I agree. Now I'm out of here until I'm not.
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Roger. Wilco. Over and out.
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Alan, for God's sake stop this ridiculous, pretentious "radio silence" nonsense. Like everyone else here, you post when you feel like it and don't post in between.
Jeremy
I know what he means, and I don't think it's ridiculous at all.
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I know what he means, and I don't think it's ridiculous at all.
What is that?
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Alan, for God's sake stop this ridiculous, pretentious "radio silence" nonsense. Like everyone else here, you post when you feel like it and don't post in between.
Jeremy
You must really want me to go away. I have a right to post or not to post and if you don't like it don't read it. The pretentious crap that you post in response to me is just too wearying. I've tried to bring my expertise in drug development and safety as a service to the readers of this forum. Apparently this is just too damn much for you. You can suspend me if you want but this is just BS. Why don't you make a positive contribution rather than being a thought police person.
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Deborah Birx, M.D., the coordinator of the Trump Administration's Coronavirus Task Force, said today in an interview with NBC News (a U.S. television network) that "social distancing" in the United States will need to continue "through the summer to really ensure that we protect one another."
Dr. Birx reportedly is one of the few career experts who has developed a relationship of trust with President Trump, and while her syntax was somewhat labored―not unusual for people close to Trump who may be offering opinions that clash with his preferences―her comment seems consistent with what most other medical consultants at both the state and federal levels have been predicting.
CHUCK TODD [interviewer]:
The vice president on Friday said that by Memorial Day, in fact, I want to read the quote exactly here, that, by Memorial Day the epidemic, “I think honestly, if you look at the trends today, that I think by Memorial Day Weekend will largely have this coronavirus epidemic behind us." This Memorial Day, 2020? Is that realistic that it is behind us? Can you explain what he means by that?
DR. DEBORAH BIRX:
I think he means that in the models and in tracking our actual data because previously, we were using models based on data from around the world. And now, we are very much tracking every single outbreak in the United States separately. And if you look at those outbreaks over time and you look at places like Louisiana, if you look at Houston, if you look at Detroit, and you look at how they have reached their peak and come down. And what those cases look like as they come down, it gives us great hope when you project out Boston and Chicago and certainly, the New York Metro which we are all very still focused on. I mean, they still have 45% or so of the entire cases in the United States. And the majority, about 40 to 50% of the mortalities. So we continue to watch this very closely. But that is where the projections take us. And it is very much based on Detroit, Louisiana and other groups. And then looking at Seattle, that never really reached a peak and has never really had a large outbreak. And trying to understand what we can do as a people to ensure -- social distancing will be with us through the summer to really ensure that we protect one another as we move through these phases.
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Here's a 42 min video interview with a vaccine developer. He explains how vaccines work, how different viruses behave, how humans respond to them, etc., https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5cYWd0N8nO4 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5cYWd0N8nO4). Not dumbed down but not overly technical either. I post this because it's pretty obvious that people say things about viruses that are clearly not based in scientific knowledge, good to have common understanding about basic things. This is no criticism of the public, no way that people could be expected to understand these things when the last biology course they took was 30 years ago in high school. Hope it's useful.
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And now for something completely different . . .
The place to stay in New York City when you're treating COVID-19 patients. (https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/05/04/the-four-seasons-goes-green-zone?utm_source=onsite-share&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=onsite-share&utm_brand=the-new-yorker)
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Coronavirus alert: Rare syndrome seen in UK children (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52439005)
BBC article highlighting a new rare but dangerous reaction in children that may be linked to coronavirus infection.
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You must really want me to go away. I have a right to post or not to post and if you don't like it don't read it. The pretentious crap that you post in response to me is just too wearying. I've tried to bring my expertise in drug development and safety as a service to the readers of this forum. Apparently this is just too damn much for you. You can suspend me if you want but this is just BS. Why don't you make a positive contribution rather than being a thought police person.
I have no view on whether you stay or go. Just remember you aren't the only contributor here with a scientific or medical background.
Jeremy
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Coronavirus alert: Rare syndrome seen in UK children (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-52439005)
BBC article highlighting a new rare but dangerous reaction in children that may be linked to coronavirus infection.
Another article linking the condition to Kawasaki disease.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/27/nhs-warns-of-rise-in-children-with-new-illness-that-may-be-linked-to-coronavirus (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/27/nhs-warns-of-rise-in-children-with-new-illness-that-may-be-linked-to-coronavirus)
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This is encouraging. A clip from an NYT story:
[But] scientists at Oxford’s Jenner Institute had already proved in previous trials that similar inoculations — including one last year against another coronavirus — were harmless to humans.
That has enabled them to leap ahead to the next step and schedule tests involving more than 6,000 people by the end of next month, hoping to show that their vaccine not only is safe, but also works.
The Oxford scientists now say that with an emergency approval from regulators, the first few million doses of their vaccine could be available by September — at least several months ahead of any of the other announced efforts — if it proves to be effective.
It is impossible to know at this stage whether any vaccine will work, or which will be the first to emerge as a success. But there is promising news about Oxford’s candidate.
Scientists at the National Institutes of Health’s Rocky Mountain Laboratory in Montana last month inoculated six rhesus macaque monkeys with the Oxford vaccine. The animals were then exposed to heavy quantities of the virus that is causing the pandemic — exposure that had consistently sickened other monkeys in the lab. More than 28 days later all six were healthy, said Vincent Munster, the researcher who conducted the test.
Edit: Shortly after the first human volunteer subject was given the vaccine, some nutcase on social media began circulating a false report that she'd died, which she refuted with a fairly cheerful twitter message.
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Spoke last night with a friend whose mother is in a retirement home. They tested their employees and found a positive result for one of their temporary workers. I don't have more details, but good thing they found out, she could have infected quite a few residents there. According to the statistics, about half of the virus deaths in Canada occurred in long term centres. So the virus testing has to continue for foreseeable future and preferably should even escalate.
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Spoke last night with a friend whose mother is in a retirement home. They tested their employees and found a positive result for one of their temporary workers. I don't have more details, but good thing they found out, she could have infected quite a few residents there. According to the statistics, about half of the virus deaths in Canada occurred in long term centres. So the virus testing has to continue for foreseeable future and preferably should even escalate.
Seems incredible to me that testing of retirement home staff isn't already a priority. Maybe it is in some places, I don't really know. Four residents contracted the virus in the home where my mother lives, but no others so far. I don't know if they did contact tracing to trace and figure out how the virus was transmitted, they've been locked in since mid-March so it pretty much has to come in via staff, no one else is allowed onto the premises.
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The number of daily deaths for the last 2 days in the US seems to have dropped from its plateau of around 2000. I hope the trend continues.
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The number of daily deaths for the last 2 days in the US seems to have dropped from its plateau of around 2000. I hope the trend continues.
May 4th is getting close. :)
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The number of daily deaths for the last 2 days in the US seems to have dropped from its plateau of around 2000. I hope the trend continues.
Yes, in Canada, USA and worldwide, the reported infection counts and deaths in the last 3 days have declined. However, some sources estimate that the real numbers are 10 times higher, and those numbers could be steady or even increasing.
The actual number of coronavirus cases in the United States is likely significantly higher — as much 10 or even 20 times higher — than the tally of Covid-19 infections currently being reported, a former top federal health official said Tuesday.
“We’re probably diagnosing 1 in 10 to 1 in 20 infections, and that’s what some of the reliable analyses are now showing,” he said. If Gottlieb is correct, that would mean that there are between almost 8 million and 15.75 million Americans who already have contracted the coronavirus, or between 2.4% to 4.8% of the U.S. population.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/21/coronavirus-cases-are-likely-10-to-20-times-higher-in-us-than-reported-former-fda-chief-gottlieb-says.html
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Alan, for God's sake stop this ridiculous, pretentious "radio silence" nonsense. Like everyone else here, you post when you feel like it and don't post in between.
Jeremy
I see no need for an ad hominem attack on Alan. And some people here could really stand to practice some "radio silence."
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OTOH, there might be a reason for caution wrt this virus, https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/public-global-health/494918-case-fatality-rates-rise-as-coronavirus-runs-deadly (https://thehill.com/policy/healthcare/public-global-health/494918-case-fatality-rates-rise-as-coronavirus-runs-deadly). One of the people quoted in the article Michael Osterholm was interviewed on the Joe Rogan podcast a few weeks ago, near the start of the pandemic. The article states that the fatality rate is increasing and urges caution for places (in the US) that may peak later than NY/NJ and others.
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I don't see Jeremy's post as an ad hominem attack. I don't think he has a problem with Alan saying what he wants, when he wants it but with the unnecessary use of "back to radio silence". All of us are doing exactly the same thing, posting whenever, without saying "back to radio silence". If you take this out of his posts they will lose no value or meaning.
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I see no need for an ad hominem attack on Alan. And some people here could really stand to practice some "radio silence."
1. I don't think you understand what an ad hominem attack is.
2. Very true. Very true indeed.
Jeremy
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German doctors posed naked to protest the lack of masks and other protective equipment.
The group says it got the nude photo idea from a doctor named Alain Colombie, a 61-year-old who posed naked to demand more PPE in France last month. Colombie wore an armband in the photos with the message “cannon fodder” written on it.
The group, which is composed largely of family doctors, is encouraging other health-care workers to send in their own photos to be added to the gallery.
(https://shawglobalnews.files.wordpress.com/2020/04/nude-doctors.jpg?quality=70&strip=all&w=720)
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The number of daily deaths for the last 2 days in the US seems to have dropped from its plateau of around 2000. I hope the trend continues.
2275 today. The number of deaths vs recoveries is very high in the US at 30% whereas about 19% in the world and 1% in the countries doing well.
So that (to me anyway) would indicate a lack of early treatment.
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2275 today. The number of deaths vs recoveries is very high in the US at 30% whereas about 19% in the world and 1% in the countries doing well.
So that (to me anyway) would indicate a lack of early treatment.
Bob, The governor of NY, based on tests they've done in NYC, estimates that 25% of New Yorkers have been exposed to the virus. Considering there are 8 1/2 million New Yorkers, that means over 2.13 million. So instead of 59k/198= 30% who died as you claim, it's more like 59k/2130k=2.6% that have died. Until all the testing is done months from now, we're really not going to know just what the infection and death rates are.
It may turn out that NYC like Sweden may be in better shape than the rest of the population. They could be reaching herd immunity which will protect them for the next outbreak. So it may turn out that it was better not shutting down sooner and for opening up quicker once shut down. I think too many people are trying to make political points rather than letting the science and actual facts guide them.
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2275 today. The number of deaths vs recoveries is very high in the US at 30% whereas about 19% in the world and 1% in the countries doing well.
So that (to me anyway) would indicate a lack of early treatment.
2470 USA deaths at the end of the day. The good thing is that the counts for Western Europe and Canada have been trending lower in the last few days.
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2275 today. The number of deaths vs recoveries is very high in the US at 30% whereas about 19% in the world and 1% in the countries doing well.
So that (to me anyway) would indicate a lack of early treatment.
Damn. Sorry to hear that.
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Bob, The governor of NY, based on tests they've done in NYC, estimates that 25% of New Yorkers have been exposed to the virus. Considering there are 8 1/2 million New Yorkers, that means over 2.13 million. So instead of 59k/198= 30% who died as you claim, it's more like 59k/2130k=2.6% that have died.
Well, no, firstly, I am not claiming it, the world is from figures published by each country.
Secondly you can not die of Corona Virus unless you have been tested for Corona virus.
Even if everything you are saying is true, 2.6% is still about three times a good result.
But if you don't think that you have a problem that's fine.
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In Portugal, today the average for the past 7 days is around 300 new cases; during this 3rd period of emergency, which will end May 2, that 7 days rolling average has dropped from around 600 to 300. We are getting ready for the slow and phased reopening next week.
In the last few days, after the ramp up in cases in elderly homes, the majority of the cases has appeared in hostels that shelter refugees.
Again, it makes me wonder: why have the competent authorities failed to anticipate the infection in such places, especially given that the population there is one of the groups at risk?
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Confusion reigns.
Gilead Sciences treated 397 severely ill coronavirus patients with its Ebola antiviral REMDESIVIR. Regardless of whether they were treated for five or 10 days, more than half of the patients were discharged from the hospital within 14 days. After the announcement Gilead's stocks were halted ahead of trading on the NYSE
Leaked data from the WHO suggested last week that the drug had 'failed'.
Market shenanigans or a break through ?
Edit:
From a quick google search:
Gilead is now testing the drug in a further 5,600 patients at 180 locations for the next stage including in the US, the UK, China, France, Germany, Hong Kong, Italy, Japan Korea, the Netherlands, Singapore, Spain, Sweden, Switzerland, and Taiwan. The company expects to report results on the first 600 patients involved by the end of May.
So, none the wiser ... yet.
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Henrique Veiga Fernandes is a Portuguese imunologist researcher that works in the Instituto Champalimuad, a forefront medical cancer research centre in Portugal. He was awarded a grant by the Chan Zuckerberg foundation for his work.
He gave an interview to a newspaper today where he describes the work that his team is doing for Covid-19: they are carrying both virological and serogical tests in several samples of the population, including hospital workers. The results so far indicate that 4 out of 5 people do not develop symptoms.
Article is in Portuguese
https://www.dn.pt/vida-e-futuro/henrique-veiga-fernandes-um-premio-de-zuckerberg-e-a-luta-contra-a-covid-19-12131522.html
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News from the BMJ of a new antibody test claiming to be 99% accurate.
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1742 (https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1742)
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Confusion reigns.
Gilead Sciences treated 397 severely ill coronavirus patients with its Ebola antiviral REMDESIVIR. Regardless of whether they were treated for five or 10 days, more than half of the patients were discharged from the hospital within 14 days. After the announcement Gilead's stocks were halted ahead of trading on the NYSE
Leaked data from the WHO suggested last week that the drug had 'failed'.
Market shenanigans or a break through ?
As far as I can see this is just a press release of a preliminary result. I would like to see the actual data/study. As a rule of thumb you should doubt any manufacturer sponsored study until proven otherwise.
So far the data on remdesivir is inconsistent.
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NYT feed:
The F.D.A. plans to announce as early as Wednesday an emergency use authorization for remdesivir, an experimental antiviral drug that is being tested in treating patients with Covid-19, the disease caused by the coronavirus, according to a senior administration official.
A federal trial has shown that treatment with remdesivir can speed recovery in patients infected with the coronavirus, Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, the director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said on Wednesday. The drug, made by Gilead Sciences, could eventually become the first approved treatment for Covid-19, the illness caused by the coronavirus.
An emergency authorization by the F.D.A. is not the same as a formal drug approval by the agency. When the federal government declares a public health emergency, the F.D.A. can approve certain drugs or tests to address the emergency if there are no other alternatives. That is the case with the coronavirus, since no drugs have been proven to be effective against the virus.
[...]
But the disclosure of trial results in a political setting, before peer review or publication, is very unusual, said Dr. Steven Nissen, a cardiologist at the Cleveland Clinic who has conducted dozens of clinical trials. “Where are the data?” he asked. Scientists will need to see figures on harms associated with the drug in order to assess its benefits, he added.
“This is too important to be handled in such a sloppy fashion,” Dr. Nissen said.
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If I were the feds (which I'm not) (and I'm not even sure the feds are the feds in the Trump administration) I'd keep a close eye on insider trading at Gilead. That report, which seemed very thin to me, suggested that there might be some small effect in using remdesivir, and yet it moved the market by more than 500 points on the Dow, and Gilead stock by some $6 a share between the close Tuesday night and the high point Wednesday.
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Well, no, firstly, I am not claiming it, the world is from figures published by each country.
Secondly you can not die of Corona Virus unless you have been tested for Corona virus.
Even if everything you are saying is true, 2.6% is still about three times a good result.
But if you don't think that you have a problem that's fine.
The purpose of my post was not to brag about the 2 1/2% death rate that I estimated. It was to debunk your claim that 30% of New Yorkers who got the disease died from it, a totally fabricated number that the you should have known is not valid unless you compare to what the general populations's infection rate is. Just repeating someone else's phoney statistics doesn't make your claim valid. It also weakens your arguments in other areas.
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If I were the feds (which I'm not) (and I'm not even sure the feds are the feds in the Trump administration) I'd keep a close eye on insider trading at Gilead. That report, which seemed very thin to me, suggested that there might be some small effect in using remdesivir, and yet it moved the market by more than 500 points on the Dow, and Gilead stock by some $6 a share between the close Tuesday night and the high point Wednesday.
That's the first thing I thought of. They're hyping the news. I hope I'm wrong. We certainly need some luck in finding a cure. But something smells.
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The purpose of my post was not to brag about the 2 1/2% death rate that I estimated. It was to debunk your claim that 30% of New Yorkers who got the disease died from it, a totally fabricated number that the you should have known is not valid unless you compare to what the general populations's infection rate is. Just repeating someone else's phoney statistics doesn't make your claim valid. It also weakens your arguments in other areas.
I never claimed anything of the sort. I never mentioned New York anywhere. You make up stuff.
What I quoted are published figures. You don't believe the figures from Russia, China or any other country so why would you believe the US ones either.
All I stated was that of the people who have been a Covid case, which means they have tested positive, that 30% died.
If they were tested on their death bed then that would explain it. At one stage it was even higher.
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I never claimed anything of the sort. I never mentioned New York anywhere. You make up stuff.
What I quoted are published figures. You don't believe the figures from Russia, China or any other country so why would you believe the US ones either.
All I stated was that of the people who have been a Covid case, which means they have tested positive, that 30% died.
If they were tested on their death bed then that would explain it. At one stage it was even higher.
The official virus stats from Russia, China and Iran are not credible.
The USA reports may be honest, but due to limited testing not complete. According to some sources, the actual numbers are several times higher.
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News from the BMJ of a new antibody test claiming to be 99% accurate.
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1742 (https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1742)
The test identifies the IgG antibody, which appears in the late stages of infection and remains for some time after the person has recovered. However, Abbott said that it was looking to expand its range to tests to include the detection of the IgM antibody, which is the first antibody to appear during the infection.
Good, cheap and fast tests as well as a vaccin will make life more simple.
I can imagine a corona test will become mandantory for travelers across countries in the coming period.
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All I stated was that of the people who have been a Covid case, which means they have tested positive, that 30% died.
If they were tested on their death bed then that would explain it. At one stage it was even higher.
I think that figure of around 30% refers to people admitted to hospital.
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I think that figure of around 30% refers to people admitted to hospital.
That statistic I can live with. The original poster used a biased statistic that made it seem that in America 30% of the people who caught the disease died. Lies, damn lies, and statistics.
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If I were the feds (which I'm not) (and I'm not even sure the feds are the feds in the Trump administration) I'd keep a close eye on insider trading at Gilead ...
CHICAGO (Reuters) - Concerns over leaks compelled the top U.S. infectious disease official to reveal data on Gilead Sciences Inc’s experimental drug remdesivir, the first in a scientifically rigorous clincial trial to show benefit in treating COVID-19. The dramatic announcement by Dr Anthony Fauci in the Oval Office on Wednesday prompted concerns among scientists that the Trump administration was raising hopes about a coronavirus treatment before sharing the full data with researchers.
Gilead has a market cap over $100billion. They're executing a large testing program (see above), prima facie the insider trading suspicion has meri but unlikely. Looking at the chronology from Tuesday market close to Wednesday , it seems more plausible that someone leant on Fauci. To say they went public because they feared a leak (the leak had already happened Tuesday and wasn't even in Gileads interest) is implausible.
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That statistic I can live with. The original poster used a biased statistic that made it seem that in America 30% of the people who caught the disease died. Lies, damn lies, and statistics.
Alan, did you consider it's not the statistics that are the problem but your reading skills and own biases?
I missed the initial post but I looked now: it says on the top, closed cases. That means from those tested and who either recovered or died, 30% died. That's it. Nothing more, nothing less. It doesn't take into account those on who we don't know what happened or are still fighting it, it doesn't take into account those who got the disease but didn't get tested.
This particular stat is incomplete (and therefore not very useful) but it's not biased, the only bias here it's yours. Your bias is that every statistics is biased so you don't even bother to understand what it actually says.
And please don't reply with the same thing over again, discussing with you it's like living in Groundhog Day.
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Henrique Veiga Fernandes is a Portuguese imunologist researcher that works in the Instituto Champalimuad, a forefront medical cancer research centre in Portugal. He was awarded a grant by the Chan Zuckerberg foundation for his work.
He gave an interview to a newspaper today where he describes the work that his team is doing for Covid-19: they are carrying both virological and serogical tests in several samples of the population, including hospital workers. The results so far indicate that 4 out of 5 people do not develop symptoms.
Article is in Portuguese
https://www.dn.pt/vida-e-futuro/henrique-veiga-fernandes-um-premio-de-zuckerberg-e-a-luta-contra-a-covid-19-12131522.html
That high rate of no symptoms makes sense. NYC did a random test of 3000 New Yorkers and found 25% tested positive. Based on that, it would mean over 2 million New Yorkers have been exposed. I think we're going to find that this disease has been very distributed through the community and that the death rate is much lower based on the rate of infections. It may not reach the low rate of regular seasonal flu. But it's going to be a lot lower than many have claimed.
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That high rate of no symptoms makes sense. NYC did a random test of 3000 New Yorkers and found 25% tested positive. Based on that, it would mean over 2 million New Yorkers have been exposed. I think we're going to find that this disease has been very distributed through the community and that the death rate is much lower based on the rate of infections. It may not reach the low rate of regular seasonal flu. But it's going to be a lot lower than many have claimed.
But what is the death rate of the seasonal flu and how does one determine that? Many people that have the flu just stay home and eat chicken noodle soup. I fail to see how we can get any accuracy as far as death rates go with the seasonal flu.
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Alan, did you consider it's not the statistics that are the problem but your reading skills and own biases?
I missed the initial post but I looked now: it says on the top, closed cases. That means from those tested and who either recovered or died, 30% died. That's it. Nothing more, nothing less. It doesn't take into account those on who we don't know what happened or are still fighting it, it doesn't take into account those who got the disease but didn't get tested.
This particular stat is incomplete (and therefore not very useful) but it's not biased, the only bias here it's yours. Your bias is that every statistics is biased so you don't even bother to understand what it actually says.
And please don't reply with the same thing over again, discussing with you it's like living in Groundhog Day.
His statistics lack credibility. Here's his post.
"2275 today. The number of deaths vs recoveries is very high in the US at 30% whereas about 19% in the world and 1% in the countries doing well.
So that (to me anyway) would indicate a lack of early treatment."
As of April 30, total worldwide statistics are 3.2 million cases, 1 million recovered, 228K died. In the US death rate is 5.86% on 1.03M confirmed and 61K dead. Russia has a death rate of 1% (.98%) but we know their statistics are BS. So for him to claim there are some countries with 1% without telling us who,(I'm sure there are other little countries with inaccurate statistics as well) is to paint a cherry picked picture. Where did he get the 30% figure? It also would be helpful if he provided the link to his statistic's data so we can analyze for ourselves. His "opinion" that the statistics indicate a lack of early treatment is questionable. What does that even mean? That people waited to go to the hospital when they were practically dead? Or because medical services in the US are poor, a condition I doubt very much compared to the rest of the world. Frankly. I'm not surprised you would sign off on the questionable accuracies of these statistics without doing some due diligence.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1087466/covid19-cases-recoveries-deaths-worldwide/
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But what is the death rate of the seasonal flu and how does one determine that? Many people that have the flu just stay home and eat chicken noodle soup. I fail to see how we can get any accuracy as far as death rates go with the seasonal flu.
Sampling is one possibility. If you do random testing of a population to see if they have antibodies which would mean they had the disease, you can determine an estimate of the percentage for the entire population. It's like polling.
The worse recent seasonal flu was two years ago in the 2017-2018 season. These high numbers occurred despite there was a flu vaccine and medicine superior to what Covid 19 has.
Seasonal influenza (flu)
Symptomatic illnesses 45,000,000
Medical visits 21,000,000
Hospitalizations 810,000
Deaths 61,000 (In the last five years, seasonal flu has killed over 200,000 Americans without a single plant being closed)
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html
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There is certainly variation in the basis of the statistics. In the UK, hospital admissions and deaths were the main source, then it was realised that care homes should be included. From yesterday they are included as there are people affected and dying in care homes without going to hospital. I think some other countries are realising the same.
It is not good to compare stats unless they have the same basis.
Jonathan
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His statistics lack credibility. Here's his post.
"2275 today. The number of deaths vs recoveries is very high in the US at 30% whereas about 19% in the world and 1% in the countries doing well.
So that (to me anyway) would indicate a lack of early treatment."
As of April 30, total worldwide statistics are 3.2 million cases, 1 million recovered, 228K died. In the US death rate is 5.86% on 1.03M confirmed and 61K dead. Russia has a death rate of 1% (.98%) but we know their statistics are BS. So for him to claim there are some countries with 1% without telling us who,(I'm sure there are other little countries with inaccurate statistics as well) is to paint a cherry picked picture. Where did he get the 30% figure? It also would be helpful if he provided the link to his statistic's data so we can analyze for ourselves. His "opinion" that the statistics indicate a lack of early treatment is questionable. What does that even mean? That people waited to go to the hospital when they were practically dead? Or because medical services in the US are poor, a condition I doubt very much compared to the rest of the world. Frankly. I'm not surprised you would sign off on the questionable accuracies of these statistics without doing some due diligence.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1087466/covid19-cases-recoveries-deaths-worldwide/
You are missing the point and you need to check the meaning of accuracy.
That stat/graph is accurate for what it was measuring, only the info is incomplete and overall not very valuable per se.
That his interpretation is not optimal doesn't make that statistic biased. You should take that with the interpreter, not the source.
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Sampling is one possibility. If you do random testing of a population to see if they have antibodies which would mean they had the disease, you can determine an estimate of the percentage for the entire population. It's like polling.
The worse recent seasonal flu was two years ago in the 2017-2018 season. These high numbers occurred despite there was a flu vaccine and medicine superior to what Covid 19 has.
Seasonal influenza (flu)
Symptomatic illnesses 45,000,000
Medical visits 21,000,000
Hospitalizations 810,000
Deaths 61,000 (In the last five years, seasonal flu has killed over 200,000 Americans without a single plant being closed)
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html
Worst year seasonal flu deaths were 61,000 over the entire year. Covid has surpassed that in just over 1 month...and that's with lockdowns.
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Worst year seasonal flu deaths were 61,000 over the entire year. Covid has surpassed that in just over 1 month...and that's with lockdowns.
Well what are the lockdowns? We see pictures of thousands gathered shoulder to shoulder at a "freedom" rally (whatever that is).
Here in Australia everyone would have received a $1000 fine for a first offence.
The current Covid death total is about 15% of the annual flu rate.
I think that is similar for most countries.
From today (1 May) restrictions are being eased so you can visit family, parks etc.
In two days we have 3 million people who have voluntarily downloaded the app in a population of 25 million.
If every level of government is not putting out the same message then it gets out of control through confusion.
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His statistics lack credibility. Here's his post.
"2275 today. The number of deaths vs recoveries is very high in the US at 30% whereas about 19% in the world and 1% in the countries doing well.
So that (to me anyway) would indicate a lack of early treatment."
As of April 30, total worldwide statistics are 3.2 million cases, 1 million recovered, 228K died. In the US death rate is 5.86% on 1.03M confirmed and 61K dead. Russia has a death rate of 1% (.98%) but we know their statistics are BS. So for him to claim there are some countries with 1% without telling us who,(I'm sure there are other little countries with inaccurate statistics as well) is to paint a cherry picked picture. Where did he get the 30% figure? It also would be helpful if he provided the link to his statistic's data so we can analyze for ourselves. His "opinion" that the statistics indicate a lack of early treatment is questionable. What does that even mean? That people waited to go to the hospital when they were practically dead? Or because medical services in the US are poor, a condition I doubt very much compared to the rest of the world. Frankly. I'm not surprised you would sign off on the questionable accuracies of these statistics without doing some due diligence.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1087466/covid19-cases-recoveries-deaths-worldwide/
> Russia has a death rate of 1% (.98%) but we know their statistics are BS<
How do you know that? If the leaders of Russia and China especially but in fact many other countries told people to do something would they not do it? China we know had a total lockdown with military enforcement and drones spraying the streets. You have "freedom" marches.
Have you been to Russia? Fabulous country.
You have the CIA, FBI, 5 eyes network and that crap but you don't seem to see the easy stuff. Explain spending five or so years in Vietnam after you knew you couldn't win. At some stage you have to accept that what you are doing may not be the right approach. It is admitting a mistake and fixing it.
>So for him to claim there are some countries with 1% without telling us who,(I'm sure there are other little countries with inaccurate statistics as well) is to paint a cherry picked picture. <
Go and look at them. I know that you can have a "world series" and not invite other countries, but there are actually over 200 of them. Most of them are free but they are not pig headed. Why do "little countries have inaccurate stats? Is there some different maths?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
>Or because medical services in the US are poor, a condition I doubt very much compared to the rest of the world.<
I am sure US medical services are great, if you can get to them. If people are not encouraged or can not afford to come to hospital if sick then they won't until they are very sick. Then it may be too late. How accessible are they? If New York has 14 million people then how many ICU beds do they have for the general public?
I really think that you would have difficulty believing any statistics that questioned your polarised view of the universe.
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> Russia has a death rate of 1% (.98%) but we know their statistics are BS<
How do you know that? If the leaders of Russia and China especially but in fact many other countries told people to do something would they not do it? China we know had a total lockdown with military enforcement and drones spraying the streets. You have "freedom" marches.
Have you been to Russia? Fabulous country.
I've been to Russia, and I would be hard pressed to stay that it is a fabulous country, rather, say, than a country with fabulous potential and some great people (It does have some excellent museums, although they're pretty universally under-funded and shabby.) But Russia essentially has two media streams -- the more or less official media, and the underground net-based media. The official media says that things are concerning, but not terrible, and that the virus will some day go away like magic -- in other words, the Russian version of the Trump message. The underground, unofficial media, says that the Russian medical system is breaking under the strain, has already broken in Moscow if you're not among the favored elite, and that the corona virus is tearing the country a new one. [For those of you on this forum who are not familiar with American slang, substitute "asshole" for "one" in the last sentence.]
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Here's a news clip that should interest people here:
It worked on monkeys, so researchers at the University of Oxford have high hopes that their coronavirus vaccine will also work on humans.
But they don’t expect preliminary results until the middle of June, John Bell, a regius professor of medicine at Oxford, told BBC Radio on Thursday.
Human trials — the first in Europe for a vaccine — began April 23, following successful tests on rhesus macaque monkeys in late March.
The results were so promising that British pharmaceutical giant AstraZeneca agreed to partner with the Oxford team to help ramp up production of the hAdOx1 nCoV-19 vaccine once the human trials are completed, according to the BBC.
AstraZeneca isn’t the only Big Pharma company betting on the vaccine. Last week, the Serum Institute of India, the world’s largest vaccine maker, announced it would begin mass-producing hAdOx1 nCoV-19 without it being approved or even knowing if it works.
Manufacturing a vaccine before it’s proven effective and before it receives regulatory approval flips the normal development process on its head. It’s a huge risk, but one that some companies are willing to take in order to get a jump on deploying a vaccine on the massive scale needed to defeat the pandemic.
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The official media says that things are concerning, but not terrible, and that the virus will some day go away like magic -- in other words, the Russian version of the Trump message. The underground, unofficial media, says that the Russian medical system is breaking under the strain, has already broken in Moscow if you're not among the favored elite, and that the corona virus is tearing the country a new one. [For those of you on this forum who are not familiar with American slang, substitute "asshole" for "one" in the last sentence.]
Is that dissimilar to anywhere? Should the official sources say positive things or tell us we are all going to die?
The purpose of any leadership, government or first aiders is to reassure the people and provide a path forward. Facebook media tries to make things worse. There is a media saying that "good news is no news".
The truth is somewhere in between. All hospital systems in all countries are, or have been under strain. That should be improving.
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Here's a news clip that should interest people here:
4 blank lines and no clip
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> Russia has a death rate of 1% (.98%) but we know their statistics are BS<
How do you know that? If the leaders of Russia and China especially but in fact many other countries told people to do something would they not do it? China we know had a total lockdown with military enforcement and drones spraying the streets. You have "freedom" marches.
Have you been to Russia? Fabulous country.
You have the CIA, FBI, 5 eyes network and that crap but you don't seem to see the easy stuff. Explain spending five or so years in Vietnam after you knew you couldn't win. At some stage you have to accept that what you are doing may not be the right approach. It is admitting a mistake and fixing it.
>So for him to claim there are some countries with 1% without telling us who,(I'm sure there are other little countries with inaccurate statistics as well) is to paint a cherry picked picture. <
Go and look at them. I know that you can have a "world series" and not invite other countries, but there are actually over 200 of them. Most of them are free but they are not pig headed. Why do "little countries have inaccurate stats? Is there some different maths?
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/
>Or because medical services in the US are poor, a condition I doubt very much compared to the rest of the world.<
I am sure US medical services are great, if you can get to them. If people are not encouraged or can not afford to come to hospital if sick then they won't until they are very sick. Then it may be too late. How accessible are they? If New York has 14 million people then how many ICU beds do they have for the general public?
I really think that you would have difficulty believing any statistics that questioned your polarised view of the universe.
Everybody who needed a bed in NYC got one. I guess you didn't read the news how the Navy Hospital ship in NY harbor and the Jacob Javits Convention Center in Manhattan that was converted into a hospital were practically empty.
Regarding small countries, NYC had 45% of the overall death in America. It received almost half a million Chinese visitors during the period in question bringing in all the disease. Small countries didn't have these visitors to the same ratio. So naturally their infection rates would be less because the sick Chinese didn't go to those places in the same percentage to the country's populations.
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Everybody who needed a bed in NYC got one. ...
Regarding small countries, NYC had 45% of the overall death in America. ...
> Everybody who needed a bed in NYC got one. I guess you didn't read the news how the Navy Hospital ship in NY harbor and the Jacob Javits Convention Center in Manhattan that was converted into a hospital were practically empty.
The rest got boxes or bags? The ship was meant to take non Covid patients. Like in every country of the world, non Covid patients avoided a hospital like the plague. We have opened up elective surgery as our hospitals are empty too.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/nyregion/ny-coronavirus-usns-comfort.html
>Regarding small countries, NYC had 45% of the overall death in America. It received almost half a million Chinese visitors during the period in question bringing in all the disease. Small countries didn't have these visitors to the same ratio. So naturally their infection rates would be less because the sick Chinese didn't go to those places in the same percentage to the country's populations.
Every country has Chinese visitors. Being in the same time zone we probably get more per capita than the US. We had 30,000 Chinese students returning for a start out of a total of 106,000 enrolled.
They were either stopped by no flights or did 14 days mandatory detention like everyone else, even returning Australians.
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Everybody who needed a bed in NYC got one. I guess you didn't read the news how the Navy Hospital ship in NY harbor and the Jacob Javits Convention Center in Manhattan that was converted into a hospital were practically empty.
Regarding small countries, NYC had 45% of the overall death in America. It received almost half a million Chinese visitors during the period in question bringing in all the disease. Small countries didn't have these visitors to the same ratio. So naturally their infection rates would be less because the sick Chinese didn't go to those places in the same percentage to the country's populations.
Sure they got a bed - even if it was a resting place in trucks, and left to rotten.
The blame it on the chinese spiel is stale. In many countries, including Portugal, while it was still possible to track the infection chains, there were confirmed cases coming in form as many as 20 countries.
Also, did you know that the "spanish flu" actually was brought into Europe from Kansas? Spain ended up with a bad reputation because they were the first country to report it.
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It received almost half a million Chinese visitors during the period in question bringing in all the disease. Small countries didn't have these visitors to the same ratio. So naturally their infection rates would be less because the sick Chinese didn't go to those places in the same percentage to the country's populations.
Do you have any evidence that the virus was introduced to New York by 'sick Chinese'? A link, perhaps?
I'm only aware of the research that suggests New York's outbreak was caused by visitors from Europe and other parts of the US.
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/york-coronavirus-outbreak-originated-europe-study-finds/story?id=70062642
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Regarding small countries, NYC had 45% of the overall death in America. It received almost half a million Chinese visitors during the period in question bringing in all the disease. Small countries didn't have these visitors to the same ratio. So naturally their infection rates would be less because the sick Chinese didn't go to those places in the same percentage to the country's populations.
As I stated in the other C19 thread, even small countries receive many Chinese visitors. For example, relatively small Czech republic received in 2018 over 600,000 Chinese visitors, most probably even more in 2019. However, the Czech government was very resolute and quick in closing the borders to all international travellers starting in February.
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> Everybody who needed a bed in NYC got one. I guess you didn't read the news how the Navy Hospital ship in NY harbor and the Jacob Javits Convention Center in Manhattan that was converted into a hospital were practically empty.
The rest got boxes or bags? The ship was meant to take non Covid patients. Like in every country of the world, non Covid patients avoided a hospital like the plague. We have opened up elective surgery as our hospitals are empty too.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/nyregion/ny-coronavirus-usns-comfort.html
>Regarding small countries, NYC had 45% of the overall death in America. It received almost half a million Chinese visitors during the period in question bringing in all the disease. Small countries didn't have these visitors to the same ratio. So naturally their infection rates would be less because the sick Chinese didn't go to those places in the same percentage to the country's populations.
Every country has Chinese visitors. Being in the same time zone we probably get more per capita than the US. We had 30,000 Chinese students returning for a start out of a total of 106,000 enrolled.
They were either stopped by no flights or did 14 days mandatory detention like everyone else, even returning Australians.
You picked an early article when the ship was first assigned. It is true that the initial purpose was to take non Covid 19 patients. That would relieve regular hospitals to have more beds for Covid patients. As it turned out, the hospitals didn't need to send any regular patients to the ship. So NY Governor Cuomo asked President Trump to reassign the ship to accept Covid patients which is what he did. The ship was completely refitted for the Covid purpose. However, the hospitals were still able to handle the Covid cases and the 1000 bed ship only received 182 patients. It stayed a month and left not being needed any longer.
The Jacob Javits Convention Center was converted to a 2500 bed hospital. However, it only topped out at 500 patients at the worse time.
Smearing America's and New York's care for its people isn't right.
https://www.navytimes.com/news/your-navy/2020/04/30/hospital-ship-comfort-departs-nyc-having-treated-fewer-than-200-patients/
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Do you have any evidence that the virus was introduced to New York by 'sick Chinese'? A link, perhaps?
I'm only aware of the research that suggests New York's outbreak was caused by visitors from Europe and other parts of the US.
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/york-coronavirus-outbreak-originated-europe-study-finds/story?id=70062642
Infections came from Europe, the west coast and direct from Asia according to this article. Since the virus started in China, it was Chinese who infected others and all these infected people visited NYC a hub of international travel.
"Not all the New York virus samples have European origins. Some appear to have come from the U.S. West Coast, while others appear to link directly to Asia. That indicates that there are numerous chains of transmission in the metro area, as would be expected in such a large outbreak."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-08/most-nyc-covid-19-cases-came-from-europe-genome-researchers-say
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Infections came from Europe, the west coast and direct from Asia according to this article. Since the virus started in China, it was Chinese who infected others and all these infected people visited NYC a hub of international travel.
"Not all the New York virus samples have European origins. Some appear to have come from the U.S. West Coast, while others appear to link directly to Asia. That indicates that there are numerous chains of transmission in the metro area, as would be expected in such a large outbreak."
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-08/most-nyc-covid-19-cases-came-from-europe-genome-researchers-say
Both news articles are based on the following research study. It's very technical, but, as far as I can tell, only one sample out of 84 was the strain found in Asia. The rest were predominantly of European origin, with a few of US origin. The NY outbreak was not caused by sick Chinese visitors (banned from 31 Jan), but by visitors from Europe (banned much later 11-14 Mar).
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.08.20056929v1.full.pdf
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Here is an article that shows comparing the number of regular flu deaths to COVID-19 deaths is misleading
https://news.yahoo.com/flu-deaths-were-counted-covid-053449918.html
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Sure they got a bed - even if it was a resting place in trucks, and left to rotten.
The blame it on the chinese spiel is stale. In many countries, including Portugal, while it was still possible to track the infection chains, there were confirmed cases coming in form as many as 20 countries.
Also, did you know that the "spanish flu" actually was brought into Europe from Kansas? Spain ended up with a bad reputation because they were the first country to report it.
In Canada ( British Columbia ) there were many infections traced back to Americans crossing the border into Vancouver before the border was locked down. So yeh, the spread is world wide, not just one way from China.
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Both news articles are based on the following research study. It's very technical, but, as far as I can tell, only one sample out of 84 was the strain found in Asia. The rest were predominantly of European origin, with a few of US origin. The NY outbreak was not caused by sick Chinese visitors (banned from 31 Jan), but by visitors from Europe (banned much later 11-14 Mar).
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.08.20056929v1.full.pdf
It seems to me that the virus hit Italy and Spain first after China. So the infected came from Europe to NY. ALthough CHinese were banned from the west coast, many came in to NYC through Europe. So there were probably a combination of European stock and Chinese who came through Europe. I recall reading that there were CHinese who came here through EUrope in another article.
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Here is an article that shows comparing the number of regular flu deaths to COVID-19 deaths is misleading
https://news.yahoo.com/flu-deaths-were-counted-covid-053449918.html
Yes, if we are to compare Covid to the flu, we need to collect the data following the same process.
I have been involved with long term care homes ( both my parents and now my in laws ) and I cannot recount a single death during roughly 5 years that was the result of the yearly flu. And that's without any kind of lock down of the facilities...just a poster on the walls informing visitors to not enter the facility if they felt ill.
Now with Covid, we've seen it run havoc through these same type of facilities. Me thinks Covid is much more dangerous than the yearly flu.
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Here is an article that shows comparing the number of regular flu deaths to COVID-19 deaths is misleading
https://news.yahoo.com/flu-deaths-were-counted-covid-053449918.html
If true, than the CDC has been getting the counts wrong for the flu for the last ten years. If the guy's right, it doesn't say much for the government or the CDC, which wouldn't surprise me at all. Worse, we're depending on the same people who did all this research on the flu and other viruses to give us expert advice on how to deal with Covid 19. Am I the only one who sees the problem here?
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Yes, if we are to compare Covid to the flu, we need to collect the data following the same process.
I have been involved with long term care homes ( both my parents and now my in laws ) and I cannot recount a single death during roughly 5 years that was the result of the yearly flu. And that's without any kind of lock down of the facilities...just a poster on the walls informing visitors to not enter the facility if they felt ill.
Now with Covid, we've seen it run havoc through these same type of facilities. Me thinks Covid is much more dangerous than the yearly flu.
Then why bother taking a flu shot yearly?
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Here is an article that shows comparing the number of regular flu deaths to COVID-19 deaths is misleading
https://news.yahoo.com/flu-deaths-were-counted-covid-053449918.html
Thanx very much for that.
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Then why bother taking a flu shot yearly?
So we can continue to have fewer flu deaths, surely.
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It seems to me that the virus hit Italy and Spain first after China. So the infected came from Europe to NY. ALthough CHinese were banned from the west coast, many came in to NYC through Europe. So there were probably a combination of European stock and Chinese who came through Europe. I recall reading that there were CHinese who came here through EUrope in another article.
Alan, you seem very determined to pin the New York outbreak on Chinese nationals visiting the city. The linked research paper does not support your view. Or at least it doesn't support the view that Chinese nationals brought the virus from China. Perhaps some Chinese contracted the virus in Europe, and then brought it to New York, but I'm not sure why your singling them out rather than any other nationality.
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Then why bother taking a flu shot yearly?
Ummm...maybe because that is one reason many don't die from the flu. Think before typing.
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Am I the only one who sees the problem here?
A firm yes.
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So we can continue to have fewer flu deaths, surely.
According to the people referenced, one never saw a death in the hospital he worked in and the other never saw a death due to flu in an old age home in five years. Now that I think of it, I've never known anyone die of the flu either. Maybe no one dies. Maybe it's just a campaign to sell vaccines. What is the truth?
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Alan, you seem very determined to pin the New York outbreak on Chinese nationals visiting the city. The linked research paper does not support your view. Or at least it doesn't support the view that Chinese nationals brought the virus from China. Perhaps some Chinese contracted the virus in Europe, and then brought it to New York, but I'm not sure why your singling them out rather than any other nationality.
Everyone agrees except the Chinese government of course that the flu started in Wuhan province in China with a Chinaman. The government there says he caught it from a bat. Of course, we don't know if it was a Chinese bat. Maybe it was an Italian bat that vacationed in China.
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Everyone agrees except the Chinese government of course that the flu started in Wuhan province in China with a Chinaman. The government there says he caught it from a bat. Of course, we don't know if it was a Chinese bat. Maybe it was an Italian bat that vacationed in China.
Let's just stick with the epidemiology. Covid-19 in New York came from Europe. The implications of this, re. travel bans, are best left to the other thread.
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Let's just stick with the epidemiology. Covid-19 in New York came from Europe. The implications of this, re. travel bans, are best left to the other thread.
What are you the speech policeman?
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It says no politics. It didn't say no sense of humor.
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It says no politics. It didn't say no sense of humor.
No, it says "science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS"
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So we can continue to have fewer flu deaths, surely.
Correct. It not only reduces the risk of becoming personally infected (and dying of complications), or if infected it reduces the severity of the consequences, but it also increases group immunity, which reduces the spread of the virus.
On the subject of deaths, attached is the official weekly statistics for the Netherlands about ALL deaths per week (the last week may still change a bit when new reports come in), as reported by the Central Bureau of Statistics (CBS).
In the winter months, there is a normal increase due to influenza, with an exceptionally severe year 2018. The COVID-19 effect is clearly visible, both in timing and quantity.
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Experts demolish studies suggesting COVID-19 is no worse than flu
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/04/experts-demolish-studies-suggesting-covid-19-is-no-worse-than-flu/
Frustrated statisticians and epidemiologists took to social media this week to call out substantial flaws in two widely publicized studies trying to estimate the true spread of COVID-19 in two California counties, Santa Clara and Los Angeles.
The studies suggested that far more people in each of the counties have been infected with the new coronavirus than thought—that is, they estimated that true case counts in the two counties are up to 85 times and 55 times the number of the currently confirmed cases in the counties, respectively. Accordingly, this suggests that COVID-19 is far less deadly than thought. The large case counts in relation to unchanged number of deaths put COVID-19’s fatality rate in the same range as seasonal flu.
Which underlines the importance of peer reviewed publications, and the risk of jumping to conclusions before the scientific principles are applied.
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See how your community is moving around differently due to COVID-19
https://www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
As global communities respond to COVID-19, we've heard from public health officials that the same type of aggregated, anonymized insights we use in products such as Google Maps could be helpful as they make critical decisions to combat COVID-19.
These Community Mobility Reports aim to provide insights into what has changed in response to policies aimed at combating COVID-19. The reports chart movement trends over time by geography, across different categories of places such as retail and recreation, groceries and pharmacies, parks, transit stations, workplaces, and residential.
This might give some interesting insights into the kind of choices that people make, also as time goes by and people get anxious to restart the economy.
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It says no politics. It didn't say no sense of humor.
What about your racist overtones?
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Never mind the race aspect. The virus is killing more men than women.
As the global death toll from the novel coronavirus mounts, evidence is growing that more men than women are becoming seriously ill — and dying — from the virus. In New York state as of April 9, for example, more than 60 percent of over 6,200 total deaths have been men.
From the early days of the first coronavirus outbreak in China, men were turning up severely ill at a higher rate than women. And this pattern seems to be largely repeating itself — if in slightly different numbers — in country after country.
https://www.vox.com/2020/4/9/21215063/coronavirus-covid-19-deaths-men-women-sex-dying-why
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Men use to smoke more than women. I wonder if that has something to do with it.
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I think it is generally acknowledged that smokers are especially vulnerable to C19. Any indications yet about vaping?
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Men use to smoke more than women. I wonder if that has something to do with it.
Yes, that's one of the factors. The referenced article shows also that it could be due to the biological differences between men and women.
Researchers think this is in part because most women have two X chromosomes, and the X chromosome happens to contain most of the genes related to the immune system (and those with two X chromosomes instead of one also have a wider diversity of immune responses). This extra immune functioning, however, also seems to put women more at risk for autoimmune diseases, such as rheumatoid arthritis and Crohn’s disease.
Hormones might also help provide women with a more effective defense. Some important immune cells have estrogen receptors, and an estrogen supplement has been shown to increase general immune responses in mice.
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Yes, that's one of the factors. The referenced article shows also that it could be due to the biological differences between men and women.
Natural selection. Grandchildren need grandmothers. Grandfathers are out playing golf.
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Without going into the details, and using the number of coronavirus deaths reported in Spain, I was very interested in having an estimation of the sensibility of number of deaths with respect to the init date of the social distancing rules. The result can be summarized in this graph:
(http://guillermoluijk.com/misc/sensibilidadfechainicioconfinamiento.png)
(the X axis doesn't represent time but the date of beginning of the social distancing period)
In Spain social distancing began on 14-Mar, and for that beginning date the simulation outputs 25.159 coronavirus deaths by the end of the social distancing period (the actual figure will be higher since we are still having relevant daily deaths). The point now is, how many deaths we'd have had in case of beginning the social distancing in other dates?
- 1 week earlier (7-Mar): the simulation outputs 5.626 coronavirus deaths, so we would have saved nearly 20K lives vs 14-Mar
- 1 week later (21-Mar): the simulation outputs 80.404 coronavirus deaths, so we would have 55K additional deaths vs 14-Mar
The black curve represents these figures, Dead at the end of the social distancing period. The red curve represents its derivative vs the beginning date, i.e. how many lives can be "saved" by advancing 1 day the beginning of social distancing. By the date social distancing began in Spain (14-Mar), advancing social distancing meant 4,5K less coronavirus deaths per day in which the confinement was moved forward.
This is the Acum evolution of deaths for the three social distancing beginning date scenarios: 7-Mar, 14-Mar (real one) and 21-Mar (dotted line is real data):
(http://guillermoluijk.com/misc/fallecimientosacum.png)
Regards
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From Scientific American, a story about a Chinese virologist who looks for new viruses in bats, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-woman-hunted-down-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/ (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-woman-hunted-down-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/). She says to be ready for others.
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The New York Times has published an internal U.S. government report (https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6926-mayhhsbriefing/af7319f4a55fd0ce5dc9/optimized/full.pdf#page=1) which predicts a large increase in both infections and deaths over the next several weeks as most of the individual states begin to lift restrictions on commercial activity and public gatherings.
[The Trump] administration is privately projecting a steady rise in the number of cases and deaths from the coronavirus over the next several weeks, reaching about 3,000 daily deaths on June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times, nearly double from the current level of about 1,750.
The projections, based on modeling by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and pulled together in chart form by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month, up from about 25,000 cases now.
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The New York Times has published an internal U.S. government report (https://int.nyt.com/data/documenthelper/6926-mayhhsbriefing/af7319f4a55fd0ce5dc9/optimized/full.pdf#page=1) which predicts a large increase in both infections and deaths over the next several weeks as most of the individual states begin to lift restrictions on commercial activity and public gatherings.
Now that's scary.
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Now that's scary.
How could it be otherwise? On March 16, around the time that the lockdowns began, the US had about 4,600 active confirmed cases (and certainly many more unconfirmed). With social distancing and other restrictions, that number grew to over 950,000 today (and certainly many more unconfirmed), and more than 68,000 people died in the interim. Relaxing the various restrictions as started last week from our current base of infection can't possibly do anything but lead to a horrific number of deaths in May and June.
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Surprisingly, the Worldometer C19 stats (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) show significant decline both for USA and Western Europe in the last few days, especially for today.
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Surprisingly, the Worldometer C19 stats (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) show significant decline both for USA and Western Europe in the last few days, especially for today.
Let's hope seasonal change affects the virus and it dies out like the regular flu.
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Surprisingly, the Worldometer C19 stats (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) show significant decline both for USA and Western Europe in the last few days, especially for today.
Reporting issue?
It's unlikely that there is otherwise any synchronicity, with such globally varying introduction events, physical distancing regimes, and lack of testing capabilities.
Also, do note that there is a weekly pattern in the reported cases, which indicates the effects of weekends and weekdays, to which the virus itself is not reacting. And then there is a lag between infection and symptoms/hospitalization/mortality.
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Also, do note that there is a weekly pattern in the reported cases, which indicates the effects of weekends and weekdays, to which the virus itself is not reacting.
Yes, weekend effect.
In spite of prolonged lockdowns, both the US and the UK have failed to reduce the daily number of Covid cases. Compare with France, Italy, Spain etc - all have seen significant falls.
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Surprisingly, the Worldometer C19 stats (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) show significant decline both for USA and Western Europe in the last few days, especially for today.
They are two/three weeks behind the start of infection...
and show the result of social distance measures.
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Yes, weekend effect.
In spite of prolonged lockdowns, both the US and the UK have failed to reduce the daily number of Covid cases. Compare with France, Italy, Spain etc - all have seen significant falls.
Back up to 2300+ deaths for the USA today. It would be nice if the Worldometer graphs showed 7-day averages. Daily numbers don't always illuminate things.
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Back up to 2300+ deaths for the USA today. It would be nice if the Worldometer graphs showed 7-day averages. Daily numbers don't always illuminate things.
Assuming that today's jump back to the previous levels includes some delayed reporting from the previous days that were somewhat lower, then it looks like fewer infections and deaths in the last week than in the previous weeks. Of course, that could change again.
Yes, the weekly totals would be more telling than the daily snapshots.
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Back up to 2300+ deaths for the USA today. It would be nice if the Worldometer graphs showed 7-day averages. Daily numbers don't always illuminate things.
As per yesterday. This is froma Portuguese newspaper that has daily updates on several plots, including 7 days average. All countries reported are falling down, except the USA - curve on the top. Seems they are in for a long plateau... with the number of deaths keeping the same pace.
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all countries in your graph , but try Russia, Brazil...
People there and in other less organized countries have not much to hold on to...
and there stats are not reliable .
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Some indications are emerging that presence of Covid-19 may predate the Wuhan outbreak as new research shows, https://thehill.com/homenews/496293-new-discoveries-shift-coronavirus-timeline-by-months (https://thehill.com/homenews/496293-new-discoveries-shift-coronavirus-timeline-by-months). It's fascinating watching all the science unfold.
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Some indications are emerging that presence of Covid-19 may predate the Wuhan outbreak as new research shows, https://thehill.com/homenews/496293-new-discoveries-shift-coronavirus-timeline-by-months (https://thehill.com/homenews/496293-new-discoveries-shift-coronavirus-timeline-by-months). It's fascinating watching all the science unfold.
Yes, until we know all the facts, as much as possible, we can't really say exactly how it happened. But that's the nice thing about science, you don't stop and keep trying and keep digging until you get closer.
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The New York Times published an interesting piece today by two Berlin-based reporters (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/06/world/europe/germany-merkel-coronavirus-reopening.html?smid=em-share) describing how Germany is cautiously relaxing its federal restrictions on business and social activity, with the implementation details being left largely to the states―a stratified regional model that has been proposed by President Trump, Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York state, and other prominent U.S. policy-makers of both major political parties―although here the legal authority resides with the individual states since the federal government is not constitutionally empowered to issue mandatory national restrictions.
Germany’s progress demonstrated that a combination of cautious, science-led political leadership and a regime of widespread testing, tracing and social distancing could allow countries to manage a controlled reopening. . . .
Germany shut down early and has been systematically testing its way back to some semblance of normality. That is not to say that life with the virus will look anything like before.
Face masks, already mandatory in shops and public transport across Germany, are fast becoming the new normal, seen everywhere from street protests to shop-window mannequins.
Socializing, even at restaurants and bars now allowed to reopen, will be limited to two households, six feet apart.
But with those limitations in place, [Chancellor Angela] Merkel on Wednesday restored many freedoms shelved for the best part of two months.
All shops will be allowed to reopen. Restaurants and hotels can resume in time for two long holiday weekends at the end of May.
All school children will see a classroom again before the summer holidays. Day care centers will start taking children next week, focusing on families most in need. Residents in nursing and care homes can receive visits from one person. . . .
Even Germany risks a second wave of infections, experts warn. The virus has a two-week incubation period and can be transmitted by asymptomatic people, making monitoring difficult.
“When you loosen measures, the problem is that you only see the effect in two weeks,” said Thomas Hotz, a mathematician who has been modeling the reproduction number of the virus. “And when you do it too quickly then you could see the virus reproducing too quickly.”
Germany's R0 factor (the infection reproduction number) is currently 0.7, German hospitals have significant spare capacity, the country already has put in place a robust system of contact-tracing, and the population appears to be abiding by "social distancing" rules―all factors which no doubt led the Merkel government to conclude it was now feasible to give the states some latitude to allow their respective populations to move about more freely.
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Surprisingly, the Worldometer C19 stats (https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/) show significant decline both for USA and Western Europe in the last few days, especially for today.
The decline in the US is because of the sharp decline in New York. When New York is taken out of the numbers, the US is still showing sharp increases in the numbers of deaths and infections. There have been a number of illustrations of this in the NYT or the WAPO.
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Received an email pointing to a re-emerging scandal, one that started way back in 2009/11. i’ve currently no way of judging on the merits, truthfulness (or lack thereof) but ‘prima facie’ the doctor at the centre of this, Dr Judy Mikovits, has plenty to say on immunology. You be the judge.
A google search returned plenty, all dated within the past few days but strangely not one US newspaper or news source. The book is already #1 on Amazon (link below) and there is a YouTube interview (25 minutes duration) posted 5 days ago. I’ve watched it, I recommend others do too. Suggest reading the comments on Amazon and the 'Look Inside' feature on the book.
Not new, almost certainly relevant to Covid-19. Inevitably, also political - to a degree. It smacks of big pharma cover-up, lambasts Fauci and his cronies and details how she was denied legal representation by the Justice Department and the FBI. Also shows a c-span clip of her being arrested at home. Enough armed personnel to storm a hijacked airliner.
• https://youtu.be/IsuCa6V7prg
• https://youtu.be/wW7lclOmgzE
• https://www.amazon.com/Plague-Corruption-Restoring-Promise-Science-ebook/dp/B07S5H6T4Q
• https://scientists4wiredtech.com/dr-judy-mikovits-primer/
Edit:
This morning the video has been removed.
It was a straight-up one on one interview.
One thing for sure - this reeks of malfaisance and suppression.
(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49866197002_32744fe2be_w.jpg)
(https://flic.kr/p/2iYvi4h)
Why are you posting this?
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Wrong thread. Please stop posting dangerous conspiracy theory garbage. This woman is a deranged anti-vaxxer.
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Received an email pointing to a re-emerging scandal, one that started way back in 2009/11. i’ve currently no way of judging on the merits, truthfulness (or lack thereof) but ‘prima facie’ the doctor at the centre of this, Dr Judy Mikovits, has plenty to say on immunology. You be the judge.
A google search returned plenty, all dated within the past few days but strangely not one US newspaper or news source. The book is already #1 on Amazon (link below) and there is a YouTube interview (25 minutes duration) posted 5 days ago. I’ve watched it, I recommend others do too. Suggest reading the comments on Amazon and the 'Look Inside' feature on the book.
Not new, almost certainly relevant to Covid-19. Inevitably, also political - to a degree. It smacks of big pharma cover-up, lambasts Fauci and his cronies and details how she was denied legal representation by the Justice Department and the FBI. Also shows a c-span clip of her being arrested at home. Enough armed personnel to storm a hijacked airliner.
• https://youtu.be/IsuCa6V7prg
• https://youtu.be/wW7lclOmgzE
• https://www.amazon.com/Plague-Corruption-Restoring-Promise-Science-ebook/dp/B07S5H6T4Q
• https://scientists4wiredtech.com/dr-judy-mikovits-primer/
I watched the interview on vimeo and found it interesting. She is well spoken, quotes some commonsense and interesting facts. I don't have enough information to confirm or disprove her points but have a feeling that we'll hear more about it. The video segment of heavily armed personnel storming her house doesn't inspire much confidence about US justice.
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As per yesterday. This is froma Portuguese newspaper that has daily updates on several plots, including 7 days average. All countries reported are falling down, except the USA - curve on the top. Seems they are in for a long plateau... with the number of deaths keeping the same pace.
Here is a preprint that I am just reading from a couple of Lisbon researchers: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.02.20088856v1 "Portugal has been portrayed as a relatively successful case in the control of the COVID-19's March 2020 outbreak in Europe due to the timely confinement measures taken. " Go to the abstract to read more.
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Les,
None of us do, but I'm hoping that either a medic, John Camp or a poster who sometimes 'maintains radio silence' will give us some context. The book seems to be more factual and some of her points tie in with recent commentary fm Nobel Prize winner Luc Montagnier.
The interview with Luc Montagnier is interesting, shocking and seemingly very credible, supported by the scientific evidence from molecular bio-technology with introduced foreign sequences. Very detailed and illuminating discussion of the manipulated virus. Montagnier also says that USA not only knows about the virus manipulation, but also that funded part of this research. The interview is in French language with English subtitles, and it is 37 minutes long. Well worth watching.
Summary: The Covid-19 has been artificially manufactured in laboratory in Wuhan. There are some HIV sequences introduced into this virus.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=durcHyxpFT4
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Leaving aside the parts that coincide with Montagnier's input, the rest does seem 'dubious'.
Snopes' report: (https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/scientist-vaccine-jailed/)
Therefore, Mikovits’ speculative claims linking her research to vaccine science, drawing the ire of “Big Pharma” and the “Deep State”, and her subsequent arrest are not rooted in science or reality.
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Leaving aside the parts that coincide with Montagnier's input, the rest does seem 'dubious'.
Snopes' report: (https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/scientist-vaccine-jailed/)
Therefore, Mikovits’ speculative claims linking her research to vaccine science, drawing the ire of “Big Pharma” and the “Deep State”, and her subsequent arrest are not rooted in science or reality.
Out of these two interviews, Luc Montagnier's video is the one to watch. Much more credible, supported by science.
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Les,
None of us do, but I'm hoping that either a medic, John Camp or a poster who sometimes 'maintains radio silence' will give us some context. The book seems to be more factual and some of her points tie in with recent commentary fm Nobel Prize winner Luc Montagnier.
I doubt that it is intentionally manipulated and from what I've read that's the general consensus of most experts. The other clip that is referred to is clear propaganda but that's the nature of the Internet these days. You need to be able to separate the wheat from the chaff and a lot of people are not willing to do the research to make that decision. It is possible that there was an escape from containment in the Wuhan lab but my hunch is these was just another case of zoonotic transmission. We see Ebola outbreaks in Africa with frequency and nobody is launching any conspiracy stories about this. The reason that we have the pandemic is that this SARS virus unlike the previous two has a longer latency time in human hosts, allowing it to spread further. Both MERS and SARS #1 had short infection periods and relatively high mortality which can lead to shorter periods of outbreak if quarantines are undertaken.
Here is what I wrote yesterday on this point somewhere else, "Whether there was a containment escape from the Wuhan lab is irrelevant. Stuff happens all the time. Look at the Sverdlovsk anthrax release which did kill a fair number of Russians. The US got lucky with the Reston outbreak that killed monkeys and was documented in Richard Preston’s “the Hot Zone.” Fortunately, the virus was specific to monkeys. I had a huge lab accident when a flask full of log growth B. pertussis (whooping cough) shattered and spilled all over me; yes this ended innocuous but shows what can happen. Lots of examples to cite here."
Folks should read Preston's book. Reston is about 20 miles from where I live and I remember when it happened. Our neighborhood was concerned when NIH wanted to build a special containment building to work on viral and bacterial pathogens. I worked with NIH on a risk assessment set of experiments that would help our citizen's association better understand the nature of the lab and what were real concerns. I wasn't worried as much about the lab containment but more how research animals would be handled and disposed of.
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Luc Montagnier is no conspiracy theorist, he is a Nobel Prize winner for research on HIV virus.
His research was based on the fact that Covid-19 virus has elements of HIV and Malaria germs. He says that "this is not possible in a naturally occurring virus without an intervention by external agency".
This is not just his opinion, but an undeniable scientific fact.
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If a virus has been manipulated is beyond my paygrade, I don't have the knowledge (or even the interest for that matter) to figure this out. I suspect that's the case for a vast majority of people here or elsewhere, so be a little careful of what a "fact" is.
I don't know if that guy is truthful or not, but always keep in mind that people are just people, regardless of their scientific backgrounds, and they are prone to bias or hidden agendas.
These being said, if what you quoted is true I already have a big question mark: Covid-19 virus has elements of HIV and Malaria germs
Malaria is a eukaryote, quite different than a virus, I have serious doubts it would play any advantage into an RNA virus (it that is even possible).
Either way, my rule of thumb for these scenarios is to go with a consensus of reputable scientists vs one that has a conspiracy theory.
PS. one more thing, absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
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I doubt that it is intentionally manipulated and from what I've read that's the general consensus of most experts.
Dr Chris Martenson at Peak Prosperity makes a strong case that the virus could have been a product of the US-funded research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
Dr Fauci, who is on record as supporting this research, is very much in Martenson's targets.
According to Martenson, this research, in which scientists manipulate a virus and then test its infectivity and pathogenicity in live animals (ferrets), is just too dangerous to justify any knowledge that might possibly be gleaned from it.
It's a long video (40 mins), but worth a watch:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6y8dlhoMpo
(I know, I've been accusing others of posting conspiracy theories, and some might regard this as the same. But Martenson seems credible to me, whereas that Plandemic film seems bogus. If Martenson is right, it would explain why Trump and Pompeo are being tight-lipped about the 'enormous evidence' they have re. the virus emerging from a lab — it's their lab!)
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Here is a preprint that I am just reading from a couple of Lisbon researchers: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.05.02.20088856v1 "Portugal has been portrayed as a relatively successful case in the control of the COVID-19's March 2020 outbreak in Europe due to the timely confinement measures taken. " Go to the abstract to read more.
Thanks for that. I am not very optimistic, if one looks at number of cases per 100,000 people, we are not that well actually. In the last couple of days, the number of new cases has risen to 480 and 533. The previous days it had been much lower. One explanation could be that we are now testing more suspected cases. We have around 220,000 active cases (positives - deaths - recovered).
In terms of tests, we one of the countries testing more per capita, so that is good.
Getting out of confinement is going to be stepwise, I anticipate Rt to go up, but differently in different regions. In this regard, there is a very good Rt analysis by region in Portugal:
https://nexp.pt/ddr/Rt.html?fbclid=IwAR03_veoxx7uwBRJiy8VdCU8bDDWasSyP_v2gMCyjtIJKzbeeXC7KJ2Uv88
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Dr Chris Martenson at Peak Prosperity makes a strong case that the virus could have been a product of the US-funded research at the Wuhan Institute of Virology.
Dr Fauci, who is on record as supporting this research, is very much in Martenson's targets.
According to Martenson, this research, in which scientists manipulate a virus and then test its infectivity and pathogenicity in live animals (ferrets), is just too dangerous to justify any knowledge that might possibly be gleaned from it.
It's a long video (40 mins), but worth a watch:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=R6y8dlhoMpo
(I know, I've been accusing others of posting conspiracy theories, and some might regard this as the same. But Martenson seems credible to me, whereas that Plandemic film seems bogus. If Martenson is right, it would explain why Trump and Pompeo are being tight-lipped about the 'enormous evidence' they have re. the virus emerging from a lab — it's their lab!)
This doesn't make sense to me. Why would US sponsor virus research in China, something close to military grade if I read between the lines correctly? I'm sure US does it, but not where the info is at the fingertips of the Chinese.
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Luc Montagnier is no conspiracy theorist, he is a Nobel Prize winner for research on HIV virus.
His research was based on the fact that Covid-19 virus has elements of HIV and Malaria germs. He says that "this is not possible in a naturally occurring virus without an intervention by external agency".
This is not just his opinion, but an undeniable scientific fact.
If that is true one would see many more scientists taking that position. There was a meme circulating about a week ago about a Japanese Nobel Laureate saying the same thing. Both he and his institution said it was false. Dr. Montagnier is celebrated for his work on HIV but that alone does not confer him with any special powers. Linus Pauling in his later years extolled the use of high doses of Vitamin C yet clinical evidence of its use has never shown. We even see high dose trials of Vitamin C and Zinc for COVID-19 despite there being no rational evidence that it will be efficacious.
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This doesn't make sense to me. Why would US sponsor virus research in China, something close to military grade if I read between the lines correctly? I'm sure US does it, but not where the info is at the fingertips of the Chinese.
As I understand things, it was not military research but public-health research — they were monkeying around with viruses to better understand how to treat them. Why do the research in China? Well that's where all the collected bat coronaviruses were located.
(I'm more comfortable with the idea that the virus came from a wet market, so hopefully someone can demonstrate that a lab release is unlikely.)
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If that is true one would see many more scientists taking that position. There was a meme circulating about a week ago about a Japanese Nobel Laureate saying the same thing. Both he and his institution said it was false. Dr. Montagnier is celebrated for his work on HIV but that alone does not confer him with any special powers. Linus Pauling in his later years extolled the use of high doses of Vitamin C yet clinical evidence of its use has never shown. We even see high dose trials of Vitamin C and Zinc for COVID-19 despite there being no rational evidence that it will be efficacious.
As I understood it, the researchers found HIV-like, consistently looking sequences in the Covid-19 virus. If this is true, then this evidence is demonstrable and present in all Covid-19 virus samples.
I am not surprised by the fact that many other established scientists don't know it. When Dr. Semmelweis in 1846 suggested that the doctors wash their hands with chlorinated water before assisting pregnant women at birth, he was ridiculed by other doctors and lost his job. Also, most doctors and nutritionists today still advocate drinking milk for strengthening the bones, while the reverse is true. So, I wouldn't necessarily believe the old guard.
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I was not aware that Montagniers assertion that there were 'elements' of HIV in Covid-19 was ever disputed. Was that not behind the initial interest and research into Remedesivir as a potential 'treatment' for Covid-19 ?
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Leaving aside the parts that coincide with Montagnier's input, the rest does seem 'dubious'.
Snopes' report: (https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/scientist-vaccine-jailed/)
Therefore, Mikovits’ speculative claims linking her research to vaccine science, drawing the ire of “Big Pharma” and the “Deep State”, and her subsequent arrest are not rooted in science or reality.
Her wikipedia entry (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judy_Mikovits) is certainly entertaining.
Jeremy
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As I understood it, the researchers found HIV-like, consistently looking sequences in the Covid-19 virus. If this is true, then this evidence is demonstrable and present in all Covid-19 virus samples.
Depending on the lengths of the sequences, and whether or not they are found in other viruses, that may or may not be surprising.
I am not surprised by the fact that many other established scientists don't know it. When Dr. Semmelweis in 1846 suggested that the doctors wash their hands with chlorinated water before assisting pregnant women at birth, he was ridiculed by other doctors and lost his job. Also, most doctors and nutritionists today still advocate drinking milk for strengthening the bones, while the reverse is true. So, I wouldn't necessarily believe the old guard.
Irrelevant analogies are unhelpful, as is your repetition of your bizarre beliefs about milk.
Jeremy
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Depending on the lengths of the sequences, and whether or not they are found in other viruses, that may or may not be surprising.
Irrelevant analogies are unhelpful, as is your repetition of your bizarre beliefs about milk.
Jeremy
This just confirms my suspicion about many doctors believing in the century-old myths. There are many new studies showing adverse effects of milk and dairy products on bones and heart.
By Thomas Campbell, MD - October 31, 2014 — Updated November 1st, 2018 - 12 Frightening Facts about Milk:
A large observational cohort study in Sweden found that women consuming more than 3 glasses of milk a day had almost twice the mortality over 20 years compared to those women consuming less than one glass a day. In addition, the high milk-drinkers did not have improved bone health. In fact, they had more fractures, particularly hip fractures.
https://nutritionstudies.org/12-frightening-facts-milk/
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/too-much-milk-may-be-bad-for-your-health/
https://www.onegreenplanet.org/vegan-food/5-alarming-facts-about-cheese-and-your-health/
Jeremy, this information is widely accessible. If you bother to google for Dangers of milk, you'll find many similar studies and conclusions. Invariably, you'll find also many contradicting opinions.
I don't aim to convert you, but there may be people who didn't know these facts and who could benefit by looking at such reports.
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Some good news from the Netherlands.
A human monoclonal antibody blocking SARS-CoV-2 infection
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16256-y
Abstract
The emergence of the novel human coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 in Wuhan, China has caused a worldwide epidemic of respiratory disease (COVID-19). Vaccines and targeted therapeutics for treatment of this disease are currently lacking. Here we report a human monoclonal antibody that neutralizes SARS-CoV-2 (and SARS-CoV) in cell culture. This cross-neutralizing antibody targets a communal epitope on these viruses and may offer potential for prevention and treatment of COVID-19.
In conclusion, this is the first report of a (human) monoclonal antibody that neutralizes SARS-CoV-2. 47D11 binds a conserved epitope on the spike RBD explaining its ability to cross-neutralize SARS-CoV and SARS-CoV-2, using a mechanism that is independent of receptor-binding inhibition. This antibody will be useful for development of antigen detection tests and serological assays targeting SARS-CoV-2. Neutralizing antibodies can alter the course of infection in the infected host supporting virus clearance or protect an uninfected host that is exposed to the virus4. Hence, this antibody—either alone or in combination—offers the potential to prevent and/or treat COVID-19, and possibly also other future emerging diseases in humans caused by viruses from the Sarbecovirus subgenus.
Its insensitivity to mutations also makes it a very interesting finding.
But it is just a first step, on a long path, towards developing a cure.
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The Ontario government has unveiled a plan for how the province will begin to safely resume scheduled surgeries and procedures. However, no specific dates were announced for surgery re-openings.
The government said this new plan would allow for some surgeries and procedures to resume while the province also ensures there is capacity for any COVID-19 surge.
The province said there are a number of factors to consider before going ahead with surgeries, including the safety of the patient and health-care workers and the therapeutic benefit of treatment against the risk of transmitting COVID-19.
https://toronto.ctvnews.ca/ontario-unveils-plan-to-resume-elective-surgeries-and-procedures-1.4928705
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Some good news from the Netherlands.
A human monoclonal antibody blocking SARS-CoV-2 infection
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-020-16256-y
Its insensitivity to mutations also makes it a very interesting finding.
But it is just a first step, on a long path, towards developing a cure.
I saw it the other day when the pre-print came out. Do they have a manufacturing partner? These can be scaled up quite easily.
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I find it disarming how easily some fall into the conspiracy theories, here or elsewhere. It's just on small leap of faith for some.
Regarding that "Plandemic" thing, it appears you are not the only ones. I found a comment on my facebook (where the factual things are correct) and I looked through that snopes article, they seem to to be on the same page, so I'll post here that comment.
First, background: I’m a physician (specifically a board-certified pathologist, which includes microbiology and laboratory medicine) with a master’s degree in epidemiology.
In the last day or two, several friends have shared or posted about a video “documentary” called “Plandemic”. The film depicts now-discredited former researcher Judy Mikovits who shares a plausible-sounding narrative about the current pandemic. The problem here is that nearly all of her scientific statements are demonstrably false. If you have more to add to this list, or credible data to the contrary, please start a discussion. I suspect there are many more false claims in this video, but these are just the ones that stuck out to me as a physician with epidemiology training.
- She states “There is no vaccine for any RNA virus that works." Incorrect: Polio, hepatitis A, measles, to name a few.
- Her retracted paper was actually not about vaccines at all, even though she insinuates that it was.
- She states that Ebola could not infect humans until it was engineered to do so in the laboratory. This is false.
- Likewise, many other zoonotic viruses have been shown to gain mutations that allow them to infect humans. This would not be some kind of new, crazy idea. We actually predicted it years ago: we just didn’t know exactly which virus or when it would occur.
- She states that the US was working with Wuhan to study coronaviruses years ago, like it’s a “gotcha” moment: yes, of course we were doing this – Wuhan is a coronavirus hotspot and it makes sense to study this family of viruses where it naturally occurs.
- She states that COPD lungs are identical to COVID-19 lungs. As a pathologist, this is ludicrous – any practicing physician would be able to tell COPD from COVID-19, both clinically and histologically.
- The statement taken out of context from the CDC death certificate recommendation reads in full “In cases where a definitive diagnosis of COVID-19 cannot be made, but is suspected or likely (the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty), it is acceptable to report COVID-19 on a death certificate as “probable” or “presumed”. In these instances, certifiers should use their best judgment in determining if a COVID-19 diagnosis was likely. Testing for COVID-19 should be conducted whenever possible.”. My physician colleagues are not being pressured to put COVID-19 on death certificates when it should not be there.
- The idea that physicians are incorrectly diagnosing COVID-19 due to financial incentive is also ridiculous. Medicare sometimes bundles payments for some conditions (i.e. if you have a heart attack, medicare may pay XX for your treatment) – it’s possible the hospital could get paid $13,000 for your COVID-19 admission, but do you know what that’s based on? The fact that the average cost of a hospital admission for a respiratory condition is $13,297.
- She states that hydroxychloroquine has been “extensively studied in this family of viruses” – in fact, it has not been studied well in coronaviruses. It HAS been studied in malaria, which is not a virus. And yes, it is considered an essential medicine for the treatment of malaria. Not for coronaviruses.
- Furthermore, the data on hydroxychloroquine are much weaker than they originally appeared: the small study that was highly publicized was not a randomized controlled trial, and the only patients who died were those who received hydroxychloroquine (and these were EXCLUDED FROM ANALYSIS!). This is terrible science. Even so, we want to investigate all possible treatments, so controlled trials are being conducted on hydroxychloroquine right now.
- She insinuates that there is a hydroxychloroquine shortage as a result of reduced production. In fact, there is a shortage because people who take this medication regularly are stockpiling it and because physicians are using it for COVID19 patients because they have nothing else to try.
- “All flu vaccines contain coronaviruses”. Nope, absolutely false.
- The ideas that sheltering in place somehow harms your immune system or that you may reactivate a virus in yourself by wearing a mask have been thoroughly debunked in other posts and I won’t get into the details here. Both national societies of emergency medicine have condemned the statements of these doctors, one of whom is not board-certified.
- Lastly, private companies removing false information from their platforms does not represent repression or promotion of propaganda. It’s helping to promote the spread of sound scientific information. If you think lies should be permitted to circulate freely alongside the truth with the intention of reaching people who won’t be able to tell the difference, you are part of the problem.
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I find it disarming how easily some fall into the conspiracy theories, here or elsewhere. It's just on small leap of faith for some.
Regarding that "Plandemic" thing, it appears you are not the only ones. I found a comment on my facebook (where the factual things are correct) and I looked through that snopes article, they seem to to be on the same page, so I'll post here that comment.
Thank you very much.
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I doubt that it is intentionally manipulated and from what I've read that's the general consensus of most experts.
Alan - thank you for the feedback.
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Jeremy, this information is widely accessible. If you bother to google for Dangers of milk, you'll find many similar studies and conclusions. Invariably, you'll find also many contradicting opinions.
I don't aim to convert you, but there may be people who didn't know these facts and who could benefit by looking at such reports.
It is irrelevant to this thread and has as much validity as the anti-vaccine hysteria.
Jeremy
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I saw it the other day when the pre-print came out. Do they have a manufacturing partner? These can be scaled up quite easily.
According to a recent interview, not yet.
Translated from this (Dutch language) interview in Erasmus Magazine:
https://www.erasmusmagazine.nl/2020/05/05/nederlands-antilichaam-internationaal-erkend-super-maar-doel-blijft-mensen-helpen/
What is the status of a drug or test?
"The publication is the first encouraging step towards possible therapy. The antibody can help in the fight against the virus, because the right antibody stops an infection. But in order to do this, we first need to get a pharmacist on board to demonstrate safety and efficacy in humans, and to scale up production of the antibody. Discussions about this are ongoing, but before it's all over and on the market, we're at least a couple of months and possibly another year away".
Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)
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I don't think we'll ever know the death toll for this virus. I just spent some time looking at the deaths from other countries, and I believe that some of them -- notably China and India -- are probably lying about the number of deaths for political reasons. India, for example, which has refused to close its economy in any effective way, or to institute meaningful social distancing, reports some 60,000 cases and 2,000 deaths. The country has a population of more than 1.3 billion people, with poor medical care and widespread tobacco use by all ages, and yet has large enough covid-19 presence that it should be tearing through the population. According to official reports, it is not doing that, but why it is not, is unknown...unless you simply assume that most deaths aren't reported or officially noted, and that the suppression is officially supported.
Edit: According to the worldometer site, US deaths just crossed 78,000.
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I don't think we'll ever know the death toll for this virus. . . .
Perhaps not, but―at least here in the United States―I think we will eventually get a plausible estimate once the epidemiologists apply statistical techniques similar to those they use to determine the number of seasonal influenza deaths each year.
For example, during the 2018-2019 'flu season, slightly more than 7K individuals died after testing positive in the United States for the circulating influenza viruses. But that hard count was calculated by epidemiologists to be significantly lower than the actual fatality rate: the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, after applying its standard statistical modeling techniques, estimated the actual influenza deaths to be in the range of 26-53K; as I understand it, this includes deaths from secondary infections, such as pneumonia, which would not have occurred if the patients had not been infected by a 'flu virus. (Similar deltas between tested and estimated fatalities apply to earlier years.)
As I write this, about 78.5K individuals who tested positive for the SARS-CoV-2 virus have died in the States. I don't have the background to know the appropriate respective statistical models that should be used to compare the fatality rates of the two viruses, but I would expect the final number of estimated COVID-19 deaths to be some multiple of the number of deaths of positively-tested individuals. The computed figure won't be precise, but it should eventually give us a reasonable sense of how devastating this novel coronavirus has been.
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I don't think we'll ever know the death toll for this virus. I just spent some time looking at the deaths from other countries, and I believe that some of them -- notably China and India -- are probably lying about the number of deaths for political reasons. India, for example, which has refused to close its economy in any effective way, or to institute meaningful social distancing, reports some 60,000 cases and 2,000 deaths. The country has a population of more than 1.3 billion people, with poor medical care and widespread tobacco use by all ages, and yet has large enough covid-19 presence that it should be tearing through the population. According to official reports, it is not doing that, but why it is not, is unknown...unless you simply assume that most deaths aren't reported or officially noted, and that the suppression is officially supported.
Edit: According to the worldometer site, US deaths just crossed 78,000.
I agree that some countries stats will be out but saying countries are lying without any proof is perhaps harsh.
You can not die from Corona virus unless you have been tested for Corona virus and no one will waste a test kit on a dead person.
India is on the Equator. Probably not too many die from any flu like disease. If you can survive starving, malaria and typhoid you will get past it.
There are plenty of modern countries with integrated hospital systems to get data from.
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I agree that some countries stats will be out but saying countries are lying without any proof is perhaps harsh.
You can not die from Corona virus unless you have been tested for Corona virus and no one will waste a test kit on a dead person.
India is on the Equator. Probably not too many die from any flu like disease. If you can survive starving, malaria and typhoid you will get past it.
There are plenty of modern countries with integrated hospital systems to get data from.
It may perhaps be harsh, but I think there are a lot of political leaders trying to dodge blame for something they really couldn't fully control; but they can control stats, and they really don't want the blame.
And as a geography freak, I can tell you that no part of India is on the equator, and that New Delhi is at about the same latitude as Tampa, Florida. A little north of that, in fact.
(And did you know the Pacific side of the Panama Canal is EAST of the Atlantic side?) 8-)
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And as a geography freak, I can tell you that no part of India is on the equator, and that New Delhi is at about the same latitude as Tampa, Florida. A little north of that, in fact.
(And did you know the Pacific side of the Panama Canal is EAST of the Atlantic side?) 8-)
Fair enough, 8 degrees or so north so about 500 NM. New Delhi is very much in the north so most of the country is closer to the equator.
My experience was that it was 46 Degrees C and there was no way I was getting a flu of any kind. Dying from exhaustion and lack of clean water was however on the cards. (:-)
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I don't think we'll ever know the death toll for this virus. I just spent some time looking at the deaths from other countries, and I believe that some of them -- notably China and India -- are probably lying about the number of deaths for political reasons. India, for example, which has refused to close its economy in any effective way, or to institute meaningful social distancing, reports some 60,000 cases and 2,000 deaths. The country has a population of more than 1.3 billion people, with poor medical care and widespread tobacco use by all ages, and yet has large enough covid-19 presence that it should be tearing through the population. According to official reports, it is not doing that, but why it is not, is unknown...unless you simply assume that most deaths aren't reported or officially noted, and that the suppression is officially supported.
Edit: According to the worldometer site, US deaths just crossed 78,000.
India has no doubt undercounted cases, whether deliberately or not, but it did completely shut down its borders, its internal transportation and its main gathering places (religious centres) very early - while people here in Italy were still zipping around the country. India is still under serious lockdown. And the government is not generally known for sutblety in enforcing laws.
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https://img-prod.tgcom24.mediaset.it/images/2020/02/16/114720192-5eb8307f-017c-4075-a697-348628da0204.pdf
I'm not going through 100's of pages on this forum about this subject- but did a Search and did not see any mention of the paper by Botao Xiao on "The possible origins of 2019-nCoV coronavirus". This paper was posted on researchgate, but was removed. Once on the Internet, always on the Internet.
Chinese students returning to the US after Christmas break talked about the Virus coming from the Lab in Wuhan. South China University of Technology is highly ranked in the world. At least the theory that the Wuhan Virus was a lab accident started in China, not elsewhere.
If it has already been discussed to death, my apologies. It is not readily available on the Internet.
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Perhaps not, but―at least here in the United States―I think we will eventually get a plausible estimate once the epidemiologists apply statistical techniques similar to those they use to determine the number of seasonal influenza deaths each year.
It's not just statistical sampling but going back and testing tissue samples from autopsies. They did this in Santa Clara county and found the first death was in early February. Autopsy sample testings are way at the back of the queue these days so we're not going to have a full counting for some time. The other problem is we still have no clue about the rate of infection and one cannot do an appropriate case report fatality (CRF) without good numbers from either. I'm still standing pretty firm in my estimate of 0.3 - 0.4%. That is still higher than the regular flu and in line with major epidemic years.
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It's been mentioned often in these threads on the Covid-19 virus that those most at risk of serious symptoms and fatality are the elderly who usually have other pre-existing medical conditions, or comorbidity.
Another factor which appears to be very significant is Vitamin D deficiency. As I understand, Vitamin D has a very important role in keeping the immune system strong so one can fight off viruses and bacteria that cause illness, especially colds and flu, and also Covid-19 according to recent research.
"Results revealed that majority of the death cases were male and older and had pre-existing condition and below normal Vitamin D serum level. Univariate analysis revealed that older and male cases with pre-existing condition and below normal Vitamin D levels were associated with increasing odds of death. When controlling for age, sex, and comorbidity, Vitamin D status is strongly associated with COVID-19 mortality outcome of cases."
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3585561
"After studying global data from the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, researchers have discovered a strong correlation between severe vitamin D deficiency and mortality rates."
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/05/200507121353.htm
According to the following ScientificAmerican article, a high percentage of US citizens are deficient in Vitamin D.
"Three-quarters of U.S. teens and adults are deficient in vitamin D, the so-called "sunshine vitamin" whose deficits are increasingly blamed for everything from cancer and heart disease to diabetes, according to new research."
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/vitamin-d-deficiency-united-states/
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I'm not going through 100's of pages on this forum about this subject- but did a Search and did not see any mention of the paper by Botao Xiao on "The possible origins of 2019-nCoV coronavirus". This paper was posted on researchgate, but was removed. Once on the Internet, always on the Internet.
Thanks for posting this. A cached copy of the paper is available (http://web.archive.org/web/20200214144447/https:/www.researchgate.net/publication/339070128_The_possible_origins_of_2019-nCoV_coronavirus) on the Wayback Machine archive.
The Chinese government has been less than forthcoming about the origins of the virus and reportedly Chinese sources are responsible for propagating some of the conspiracy theories that have tried to implicate the United States in the origin of the virus. Still, the proximity of two research labs to the "wet market" in Wuhan strikes me as a rather weak basis for a research paper.
Xiao Botao, one of the authors, told the Wall Street Journal in February that the paper was withdrawn because "the speculation about the possible origins in the post was based on published papers and media, and was not supported by direct proofs." The WSJ article is paywalled, but Radio France International had a well-reported piece earlier this month (http://www.rfi.fr/en/asia/20200404-china-covid-19-about-face-from-sick-man-in-asia-to-savior-of-the-world) that, inter alia, describes the paper and its withdrawal.
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It's been mentioned often in these threads on the Covid-19 virus that those most at risk of serious symptoms and fatality are the elderly who usually have other pre-existing medical conditions, or comorbidity.
Another factor which appears to be very significant is Vitamin D deficiency. As I understand, Vitamin D has a very important role in keeping the immune system strong so one can fight off viruses and bacteria that cause illness, especially colds and flu, and also Covid-19 according to recent research.
"Results revealed that majority of the death cases were male and older and had pre-existing condition and below normal Vitamin D serum level. Univariate analysis revealed that older and male cases with pre-existing condition and below normal Vitamin D levels were associated with increasing odds of death. When controlling for age, sex, and comorbidity, Vitamin D status is strongly associated with COVID-19 mortality outcome of cases."
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3585561
"After studying global data from the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, researchers have discovered a strong correlation between severe vitamin D deficiency and mortality rates."
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/05/200507121353.htm
According to the following ScientificAmerican article, a high percentage of US citizens are deficient in Vitamin D.
"Three-quarters of U.S. teens and adults are deficient in vitamin D, the so-called "sunshine vitamin" whose deficits are increasingly blamed for everything from cancer and heart disease to diabetes, according to new research."
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/vitamin-d-deficiency-united-states/
Ray,
thank you for posting those links. As stated in the last article, Institute of Medicine recommends 200-600 International Units of vitamin D daily, but that is clearly insufficient. In Canada, the recommended dosage is 1,000 units, but even that is not enough. I upped it gradually from 1,000 to 3,000 units and that raised my D levels to the acceptable range. Unfortunately, in Canada testing for vitamin D levels is not free (compared with vitamin B12, cholesterol, etc), and as a result, very few people are aware of their vitamin D deficiency, since they do not get regularly tested for it.
Vitamin D is associated also with significant reduction of cancer-related mortality, rheumatoid arthritis and cardiovascular diseases.
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Thanks for posting this. A cached copy of the paper is available (http://web.archive.org/web/20200214144447/https:/www.researchgate.net/publication/339070128_The_possible_origins_of_2019-nCoV_coronavirus) on the Wayback Machine archive.
The Chinese government has been less than forthcoming about the origins of the virus and reportedly Chinese sources are responsible for propagating some of the conspiracy theories that have tried to implicate the United States in the origin of the virus. Still, the proximity of two research labs to the "wet market" in Wuhan strikes me as a rather weak basis for a research paper.
Xiao Botao, one of the authors, told the Wall Street Journal in February that the paper was withdrawn because "the speculation about the possible origins in the post was based on published papers and media, and was not supported by direct proofs." The WSJ article is paywalled, but Radio France International had a well-reported piece earlier this month (http://www.rfi.fr/en/asia/20200404-china-covid-19-about-face-from-sick-man-in-asia-to-savior-of-the-world) that, inter alia, describes the paper and its withdrawal.
With the risk of entering the realm of politics, here s an interesting article about how the spread of a/this Corona virus can be traced back to it's origin.
How coronavirus mutations can track its spread—and disprove conspiracies:
https://www.nationalgeographic.com/science/2020/03/how-coronavirus-mutations-can-track-its-spread-and-disprove-conspiracies/
Tracking cases through mutations
Bedford’s lab has been using genetics to track the new coronavirus, known as SARS-CoV-2, since the first U.S. cases started to multiply in Washington State in February and March. Back then, public health officials focused on tracking patients’ travel histories and connecting the dots back to potentially infected people they’d met along the way.
Meanwhile, Bedford and his team turned to unlocking the virus’s genetic code by analyzing nasal samples collected from about two dozen patients. Their discovery was illuminating: By tracing how and where the virus had changed over time, Bedford showed that SARS-CoV-2 had been quietly incubating within the community for weeks since the first documented case in Seattle on January 21. The patient was a 35-year-old who had recently visited the outbreak’s original epicenter in Wuhan, China.
[...]
First off, most of SARS-CoV-2’s underlying structure is unlike any of coronaviruses previously studied in a lab. The novel coronavirus also contains genetic features that suggest it encountered a living immune system rather than being cultivated in a petri dish.
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It's been mentioned often in these threads on the Covid-19 virus that those most at risk of serious symptoms and fatality are the elderly who usually have other pre-existing medical conditions, or comorbidity.
Another factor which appears to be very significant is Vitamin D deficiency. As I understand, Vitamin D has a very important role in keeping the immune system strong so one can fight off viruses and bacteria that cause illness, especially colds and flu, and also Covid-19 according to recent research.
"Results revealed that majority of the death cases were male and older and had pre-existing condition and below normal Vitamin D serum level. Univariate analysis revealed that older and male cases with pre-existing condition and below normal Vitamin D levels were associated with increasing odds of death. When controlling for age, sex, and comorbidity, Vitamin D status is strongly associated with COVID-19 mortality outcome of cases."
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3585561
"After studying global data from the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic, researchers have discovered a strong correlation between severe vitamin D deficiency and mortality rates."
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/05/200507121353.htm
According to the following ScientificAmerican article, a high percentage of US citizens are deficient in Vitamin D.
"Three-quarters of U.S. teens and adults are deficient in vitamin D, the so-called "sunshine vitamin" whose deficits are increasingly blamed for everything from cancer and heart disease to diabetes, according to new research."
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/vitamin-d-deficiency-united-states/
Of all the things I've read over the past 8 weeks, the Vitamin D association is one of the weakest. There is at least one clinical trial going on using it but there are more trials with Vitamin C. Of course zinc is also popular again.
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Of all the things I've read over the past 8 weeks, the Vitamin D association is one of the weakest. There is at least one clinical trial going on using it but there are more trials with Vitamin C. Of course zinc is also popular again.
What worries me more is that there are people who (after hearing about this not extensively peer-reviewed hypothesis) will introduce hypervitaminosis-D, by taking in excessive amounts of vitamin-D. After-all there are even stranger substances that some people administer after hearing it being suggested.
AFAIK, 15-minutes a day of sunshine will let the human body produce ample amounts of vitamin-D, and a healthy diet will provide the rest.
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What worries me more is that there are people who (after hearing about this not extensively peer-reviewed hypothesis) will introduce hypervitaminosis-D, by taking in excessive amounts of vitamin-D. After-all there are even stranger substances that some people administer after hearing it being suggested.
AFAIK, 15-minutes a day of sunshine will let the human body produce ample amounts of vitamin-D, and a healthy diet will provide the rest.
One could also wonder if the Vitamin-D levels were low at contamination time, or after COVID-19 has fully developed?
This needs a lot of peer review.
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What worries me more is that there are people who (after hearing about this not extensively peer-reviewed hypothesis) will introduce hypervitaminosis-D, by taking in excessive amounts of vitamin-D. After-all there are even stranger substances that some people administer after hearing it being suggested.
AFAIK, 15-minutes a day of sunshine will let the human body produce ample amounts of vitamin-D, and a healthy diet will provide the rest.
Yes, high dosages of Vitamin D can be toxic. The recommended daily maximum is 4,000 units, but apparently you could take up to 10,000 initially to build it up in your body, and then reduce it 2,000-4,000 per day to maintain the required levels.
For older people, 15 minutes exposure to the sun may not be enough. Especially when living in northern countries.
I recall Slobodan saying last year, that he had to supplement his vitamin D with pills even when he lived in Florida.
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One could also wonder if the Vitamin-D levels were low at contamination time, or after COVID-19 has fully developed?
This needs a lot of peer review.
I don't know whether vitamin D would help or not, I just know that my doc said I should take some starting years ago, so I do. And frankly, this doesn't strike me as rocket science, needing any kind of review -- reasonable amounts of vitamin D supplements aren't going to hurt you, and may help you, and are cheap as dirt, so why not? A reputable brand, always.
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I don't know whether vitamin D would help or not, I just know that my doc said I should take some starting years ago, so I do. And frankly, this doesn't strike me as rocket science, needing any kind of review -- reasonable amounts of vitamin D supplements aren't going to hurt you, and may help you, and are cheap as dirt, so why not? A reputable brand, always.
I agree, and that should be part of a normal diet. Especially in wintertime we may need to supplement some, either by using reasonable amounts of supplements or a change in diet. With the upcoming potential shortage of some fresh produce, one should supplement where needed. More is not better. The right amount is right.
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JEREMY ALERT!!! Take a look at my new picture - proof that I'm ready for COVID-19 at the next business meeting!!
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you look well preserved...
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Of all the things I've read over the past 8 weeks, the Vitamin D association is one of the weakest. There is at least one clinical trial going on using it but there are more trials with Vitamin C. Of course zinc is also popular again.
That's a bit puzzling, Alan. Would you also claim that the evidence for the role that Vitamin D plays in strengthening the immune system, is also weak?
It seems logical to me that any vitamin or mineral that strengthens the immune system will likely reduce the risk of serious consequences resulting from any infection, including Covid-19.
However, I admit that 'correlation' is not the same as 'cause', which has been an issue in Climate Change when proxy records have shown that rises in CO2 levels in the past have often followed rises in temperature. ;)
There is also the issue that, whilst Vitamin D deficiency might increase the risk of infection from Covid-19, Vitamin D supplements administered after a person has contracted the virus might not be an effective cure.
Nevertheless, the evidence seems to be strong that the elderly in a population have the greatest deficiency of Vitamin D.
From the 'National Center for Biotechnology Information':
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3356951/
"Older adults are at high risk of developing vitamin D insufficiency because of aging. Their skin cannot synthesize vitamin D as efficiently, they are likely to spend more time indoors, and they may have inadequate intakes of the vitamin."
Other significant points made in the article:
"The major source of vitamin D for children and adults is exposure to natural sunlight. Thus, the major cause of VDD (Vitamin D Deficiency) is inadequate exposure to sunlight. Wearing a sunscreen with a sun protection factor of 30 reduces vitamin D synthesis in the skin by more than 95%."
"Obtaining sufficient vitamin D from natural food sources alone is difficult. Consumption of vitamin D-fortified foods and exposure to some sunlight are essential for maintaining a healthy vitamin D status. Dietary supplements might be required to meet the daily need for vitamin D in some group of people."
I believe there are also other benefits in getting one's Vitamin D from sun exposure rather than supplements. These include the production of Nitric Oxide, Serotonin, Endorphin, Brain Derived Meurotropic Factor (BDNF), and Dopamine.
I usually protect myself very well from the sun whenever I go out for a walk, because of the scare about the risk of skin cancer. I protect myself even more when I work in the garden, wearing a long-sleeve shirt, long pants, a hat, and gloves.
However, after reading about the benefits of Vitamin D from sun exposure, I've started taking off my shirt and exposing my upper body to the mid-day sun for about half an hour, on days when the sun shines. We're now approaching winter in Australia. During the next summer I might restrict my exposure to 15 minutes. Too much of anything is bad, by definition.
I'm amazed at the difference in my sense of well-being that has resulted. I usually sleep for 7 hours or more each night and have a snooze in the afternoon. After exposing myself to the mid-day sun on just a few occasions recently, I find I'm sleeping better, need no more than 6 hours sleep, do not need a snooze in the afternoon, have more energy, and generally feel better. I'm 77 by the way.
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AFAIK, 15-minutes a day of sunshine will let the human body produce ample amounts of vitamin-D, and a healthy diet will provide the rest.
As long as you don't apply sun screen lotion, and as long as it's 15 minute when the sun is high in the sky, especially in northern latitudes, because it's UVB (a shorter wave length than UVA) which is required for the body to produce Vitamin D3, and UVB is more prevalent when the sun is higher.
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This doesn't make sense to me. Why would US sponsor virus research in China, something close to military grade if I read between the lines correctly? I'm sure US does it, but not where the info is at the fingertips of the Chinese.
I could never understand why anyone especially America would get involved in creating weapons grade viruses. It seems immoral. Plus, it's like spitting into the wind.
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It's not just statistical sampling but going back and testing tissue samples from autopsies. They did this in Santa Clara county and found the first death was in early February. Autopsy sample testings are way at the back of the queue these days so we're not going to have a full counting for some time. The other problem is we still have no clue about the rate of infection and one cannot do an appropriate case report fatality (CRF) without good numbers from either. I'm still standing pretty firm in my estimate of 0.3 - 0.4%. That is still higher than the regular flu and in line with major epidemic years.
A recent random study in NYC of 3000 people showed an infection rate of 20%. Since there are roughly 8 1/2 million people in NYC, considering the almost 20000 people there who died, would give a death rate of (Correction .012).
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Correction .012
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Ray,
thank you for posting those links. As stated in the last article, Institute of Medicine recommends 200-600 International Units of vitamin D daily, but that is clearly insufficient. In Canada, the recommended dosage is 1,000 units, but even that is not enough. I upped it gradually from 1,000 to 3,000 units and that raised my D levels to the acceptable range. Unfortunately, in Canada testing for vitamin D levels is not free (compared with vitamin B12, cholesterol, etc), and as a result, very few people are aware of their vitamin D deficiency, since they do not get regularly tested for it.
Vitamin D is associated also with significant reduction of cancer-related mortality, rheumatoid arthritis and cardiovascular diseases.
I showed low Vitamin D a couple of years ago so my doctor has me on 2000 unit a day. Maybe I should take two pills and double up. I'm not getting as much sun being cooped up at home.
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JEREMY ALERT!!! Take a look at my new picture - proof that I'm ready for COVID-19 at the next business meeting!!
Yes Alan, You look very debonair.
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One of the things that we sort of simplistically do when we're talking about death rates is to equate one country to another; that is, the US is a country, and so is Spain. The US is a country, and so is France. We all know that those are not equal parts of an equation, but we do it anyway.
I got curious about looking at numbers a different way, because the US is assumed to be suffering so badly compared to other areas. However, if you group several major members of the EU, along with the UK -- that is, France, Italy, Spain, Germany, the Netherlands and the UK -- we find these closely associated countries have a total population of about the same as the US, 330 million. They have, together, about 125,000 Covid-19 deaths, compared to about 80,000 in the US.
That's a lot of dead people altogether, and doesn't make me feel any happier to say this, but the US does not look quite so bad (or negligent) in comparison. You may or may not agree. 8-(
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One of the things that we sort of simplistically do when we're talking about death rates is to equate one country to another; that is, the US is a country, and so is Spain. The US is a country, and so is France. We all know that those are not equal parts of an equation, but we do it anyway.
I got curious about looking at numbers a different way, because the US is assumed to be suffering so badly compared to other areas. However, if you group several major members of the EU, along with the UK -- that is, France, Italy, Spain, Germany, the Netherlands and the UK -- we find these closely associated countries have a total population of about the same as the US, 330 million. They have, together, about 125,000 Covid-19 deaths, compared to about 80,000 in the US.
That's a lot of dead people altogether, and doesn't make me feel any happier to say this, but the US does not look quite so bad (or negligent) in comparison. You may or may not agree. 8-(
Coincidentally, people in Spain, Italy and Greece have lower vitamin D levels than the US and Canadian citizens. The highest average levels of vitamin D are found in northern Europe, due to the consumption of cod liver oil and vitamin D supplements, and possibly due to less sun avoidance. Scandinavian nations are among the countries with the lowest number of COVID-19 cases and mortality rates per head of population in Europe.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/05/200507131012.htm
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A recent random study in NYC of 3000 people showed an infection rate of 20%. Since there are roughly 8 1/2 million people in NYC, considering the almost 20000 people there who died, would give a death rate of (Correction .012).
That's exactly the point!! If we knew that this was marginally worse than the seasonal flu, people would have more confidence that it is "safe" to go out. We don't have this data and I blame the government for not doing this kind of large scale field epidemiology. Now maybe you and I being over 70 would still be very conservative in what we do but lots of others might be relieved. Regardless of one's political orientation this is a massive failing on the national level.
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[...]
That's a lot of dead people altogether, and doesn't make me feel any happier to say this, but the US does not look quite so bad (or negligent) in comparison. You may or may not agree. 8-(
I do not think it is useful to compare absolute numbers, as long as countries are in different stages of the developing pandemic.
In my country, and in several others, the mortality numbers caused by COVID-19 are declining, and the number of new cases and subsequent hospitalizations are also declining. That's why our economies are slowly, but cautiously, opening up in a step by step fashion.
In addition to the vital occupations (medical, food stores, garbage collection, etc.), which have mostly been continuing business (with physical distancing measures in place), tomorrow we are e.g. opening up elementary schools, although with lots of restrictions like for parents who want to drop off their kids. Public transportation is going to ramp up as well, but with a fraction of the capacity per vehicle and with other restrictions.
Last week, our government presented a roadmap that outlines when other businesses will be allowed to open up again, provided that the infection rates do not grow too fast. So it's a cycle of opening up, waiting for 2-4 weeks, and then open up more or stop and lockdown again. The Reproduction number must stay below 1.0, which seems to be the metric, and testing and contact tracing will be increased and available for each and every citizen who develops symptoms. When tested positive, a 14-day quarantine will be imposed on the entire direct family of that person.
I do not think that the USA, in general, is at that point of declining infections yet (New York might be a possible exception). Some places have almost not been affected yet(!). So it seems too soon for opening up, although some sectors could, provided that there is ample testing and contact tracing capability at hand to 'force' people into quarantine in order to contain outbreaks and nip them in the bud.
And there will be outbreaks, all over the world.
Even in Germany, the reproduction rate, which was well below 1.0 (between 0.4 and 0.7), is growing again. I just received a news flash seconds ago, that the reproduction rate in Germany has already risen to 1.1 after they opened up some of their economic activities last week. We'll have to see how well they can turn that situation around, and how they will attempt to do that. We can all learn from each other.
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Alcoholic beverage sales are everywhere on increase. Sadly, the increased drinking can make people more vulnerable to Covid-19.
“If the cells lining a person’s airway are damaged from alcohol, then viral particles, such as COVID-19, more easily gain access, causing immune cells, which fight off infection, to not work as well, leading to increased overall risks of more severe diseases as well as complications.”
Similarly, alcohol can trigger inflammation in the gut and destroy the microorganisms that live in the intestine and maintain immune system health. “Alcohol intake can kill normal healthy gut bacteria, which help to promote health and reduce risk of infection." When the body is unable to clear a pathogen, an infection can worsen and lead to more severe, life threatening complications.
https://www.healthline.com/health-news/can-alcohol-hurt-your-immune-system-during-covid-19-outbreak
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Ray,
thank you for posting those links. As stated in the last article, Institute of Medicine recommends 200-600 International Units of vitamin D daily, but that is clearly insufficient. In Canada, the recommended dosage is 1,000 units, but even that is not enough. I upped it gradually from 1,000 to 3,000 units and that raised my D levels to the acceptable range. Unfortunately, in Canada testing for vitamin D levels is not free (compared with vitamin B12, cholesterol, etc), and as a result, very few people are aware of their vitamin D deficiency, since they do not get regularly tested for it.
Vitamin D is associated also with significant reduction of cancer-related mortality, rheumatoid arthritis and cardiovascular diseases.
You just pointed out something that I had never thought of or knew about. That coverages between Canada and the US are not the same. So comparing the cost of medical care isn't equivalent. Vitamin D test is covered here. I found out I was low during a regular 3 month test. I get it as part of my normal blood panel workup where everything else is checked. What other things are not the same? It's not just wait time for MRI's and operations that are longer in Canada. There could be a slew of other services that aren't covered as well. Costs between our two countries are like comparing apples to oranges.
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Coincidentally, people in Spain, Italy and Greece have lower vitamin D levels than the US and Canadian citizens. The highest average levels of vitamin D are found in northern Europe, due to the consumption of cod liver oil and vitamin D supplements, and possibly due to less sun avoidance. Scandinavian nations are among the countries with the lowest number of COVID-19 cases and mortality rates per head of population in Europe.
https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/05/200507131012.htm
Like global warming, it may be coincidental, not causative.
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That's exactly the point!! If we knew that this was marginally worse than the seasonal flu, people would have more confidence that it is "safe" to go out. We don't have this data and I blame the government for not doing this kind of large scale field epidemiology. Now maybe you and I being over 70 would still be very conservative in what we do but lots of others might be relieved. Regardless of one's political orientation this is a massive failing on the national level.
I don't understand why other cities and states are not doing it. It was only a 3000 test sampling in NYC. Our polling for national elections are often only 1000-2000. How hard would it be to test a couple of thousand people in each of the states? OK, we don't know the test's accuracy. But even if it's off 25%, you still get an idea of what's going on.
What I see in my town here in central New Jersey is that they do testing as they are testing in all townships. But they're limited to people who call in, who think they have it, or do EMT, fire, police and other officials. So it's not random. So the number of cases mean nothing as to the actual infection rate of the general populace. You think that governors would want to know the actual infection rate. That could justify or not justify re-opening their states or specific sections of their states earlier or later. Right now it seems they're only basing it on death rates. Or luck.
It's also true that like you, us old farts have to be careful regardless of what our idiot leaders do. Our governor is a businessman worth around $300 million. So at least he understands business somewhat and analyzes things from that standpoint as well. So I hope he makes reasoned judgments. But whatever they are, my wife and I are still hiding out.
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Can we please stay on the topic of COVID-19?
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Can we please stay on the topic of COVID-19?
And in particular avoid pointless bickering about the extent of insurance cover / state-funded provision of medical care in different countries. There's a politics thread for that.
Jeremy
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Quite right, my apologies. I removed my post.
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That's exactly the point!! If we knew that this was marginally worse than the seasonal flu, people would have more confidence that it is "safe" to go out. We don't have this data and I blame the government for not doing this kind of large scale field epidemiology. Now maybe you and I being over 70 would still be very conservative in what we do but lots of others might be relieved. Regardless of one's political orientation this is a massive failing on the national level.
I think I mentioned this in another post, but I an't find it. I don't understand why the US doesn't do a thoroughly randomized study of exactly where we are in the epidemic here. I should mention that I once took an extensive course in polling and sampling, and I suspect that the NY study is probably not vey good because of the way it was done. The fact is, small changes in technique which oversample certain populations scan seriously skew results. (For example, we learned of a study in which people in a certain town were polled for political preferences, and the results come back skewed toward Republicans. It turned out that the sampling method sent polling people to every 5th or 6th house -- I can't remember the exact number -- and it turned out that the number meant that the polling people way over sampled corner houses; and corner houses are more expensive, and more likely to be inhabited by Republicans, so the ample wasn't truly random.) As I understand it, the NY sample was taken on the street, people who were not sheltering when they were sampled, and thus, I would expect them to have more occurrences of Covid19.
However, it would seem to me that you could do a national sample using cell-phone numbers, and after the sample is set -- something routinely done by political polling services -- you would contact those people, order them to go to a hospital to get tested (something that could be done by law -- they'd have to show up) -- and reward them, say $500 or $1,000. You'd only need to sample about 1,000 people to get a very clear idea of how extensive the problem is. (That would get you within 3% with 95% reliability.) You'd only need to sample that 1,000 people for any size of population. If we awarded each person $1,000, and needed 1000 people, that'd only be a million dollars, not much for this critical information when we're throwing around trillions. One problem with this is the reliably of the tests themselves. If they got large numbers of false negatives and positives, that would also skew the results.
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I think I mentioned this in another post, but I an't find it. I don't understand why the US doesn't do a thoroughly randomized study of exactly where we are in the epidemic here. I should mention that I once took an extensive course in polling and sampling, and I suspect that the NY study is probably not vey good because of the way it was done. The fact is, small changes in technique which oversample certain populations scan seriously skew results. (For example, we learned of a study in which people in a certain town were polled for political preferences, and the results come back skewed toward Republicans. It turned out that the sampling method sent polling people to every 5th or 6th house -- I can't remember the exact number -- and it turned out that the number meant that the polling people way over sampled corner houses; and corner houses are more expensive, and more likely to be inhabited by Republicans, so the ample wasn't truly random.) As I understand it, the NY sample was taken on the street, people who were not sheltering when they were sampled, and thus, I would expect them to have more occurrences of Covid19.
However, it would seem to me that you could do a national sample using cell-phone numbers, and after the sample is set -- something routinely done by political polling services -- you would contact those people, order them to go to a hospital to get tested (something that could be done by law -- they'd have to show up) -- and reward them, say $500 or $1,000. You'd only need to sample about 1,000 people to get a very clear idea of how extensive the problem is. (That would get you within 3% with 95% reliability.) You'd only need to sample that 1,000 people for any size of population. If we awarded each person $1,000, and needed 1000 people, that'd only be a million dollars, not much for this critical information when we're throwing around trillions. One problem with this is the reliably of the tests themselves. If they got large numbers of false negatives and positives, that would also skew the results.
Well, Jeremy may consider your point a political position. But it deserves a response regardless.
Well, you could offer a payment. But you can't order people to show up at hospitals. There are no such laws. In fact our constitution prohibits that. What's next? Telling people they have to be part of a vaccine study as guinea pigs and get injected with dangerous drugs? What if someone like a president thought we should try an antiseptic injection? If you can use a virus epidemic to do that, they why not put off elections for four years, extend terms in office, and limit all kinds of other freedoms. I agree that good studies are important. But the government has to do it in a way that doesn't impede liberties to such a great extent.
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However, it would seem to me that you could do a national sample using cell-phone numbers, and after the sample is set -- something routinely done by political polling services -- you would contact those people, order them to go to a hospital to get tested (something that could be done by law -- they'd have to show up) -- and reward them, say $500 or $1,000. You'd only need to sample about 1,000 people to get a very clear idea of how extensive the problem is. (That would get you within 3% with 95% reliability.) You'd only need to sample that 1,000 people for any size of population. If we awarded each person $1,000, and needed 1000 people, that'd only be a million dollars, not much for this critical information when we're throwing around trillions. One problem with this is the reliably of the tests themselves. If they got large numbers of false negatives and positives, that would also skew the results.
John, they have done field epidemiology in New York, Los Angeles and Santa Clara county using blood tests for antibodies to COVID-19. In all cases the investigators showed many fold more infections than have been reported through the normal hospital based testing that was going on at the time. When the preprints came out all kinds of hate posts started appearing bitching about the sampling protocols and the poor reliability of the tests which was false in the two CA testing regimes as the researchers did their own in house validation and didn't simply rely on the manufacturers data. New York used a version of the Mt. Sinai developed test which is approved by the FDA and one of the best ones out there. IMO, the infection rate is a minimum of 10X the number of reported infections and this is similar to what the Italians are finding as well. Is it as high as 50-70X as the Santa Clara study showed? I don't know and maybe it is somewhere in between.
The bottom line is we have the tools to do this kind of testing right now even if we are not going to engage in a massive testing program. The failure of will at the National level is just stupifying to me. I have friends in the public health community that have documented what is needed to reopen things in a sane manner. We have millions of people unemployed and some of these folks won't see their jobs return. Retrain people to help out on the public health side doing contact tracing. They can earn money and contribute to the public good. This is not rocket science!!
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John, they have done field epidemiology in New York, Los Angeles and Santa Clara county using blood tests for antibodies to COVID-19. In all cases the investigators showed many fold more infections than have been reported through the normal hospital based testing that was going on at the time. When the preprints came out all kinds of hate posts started appearing bitching about the sampling protocols and the poor reliability of the tests which was false in the two CA testing regimes as the researchers did their own in house validation and didn't simply rely on the manufacturers data. New York used a version of the Mt. Sinai developed test which is approved by the FDA and one of the best ones out there. IMO, the infection rate is a minimum of 10X the number of reported infections and this is similar to what the Italians are finding as well. Is it as high as 50-70X as the Santa Clara study showed? I don't know and maybe it is somewhere in between.
The bottom line is we have the tools to do this kind of testing right now even if we are not going to engage in a massive testing program. The failure of will at the National level is just stupifying to me. I have friends in the public health community that have documented what is needed to reopen things in a sane manner. We have millions of people unemployed and some of these folks won't see their jobs return. Retrain people to help out on the public health side doing contact tracing. They can earn money and contribute to the public good. This is not rocket science!!
My problem with the California and New York tests involved the sampling. When I was studying sampling, it became apparent (in the academic studies) that very minor changes in sampling technique could lead to large errors in reported outcomes. (There was even an entire book devoted to the problem, called "Unobtrusive Measures.") In California, the people sampled (as I understand it) were actually recruited on-line, which raised the question of whether self-selection might have skewed results. In New York, sampling only people who were outside also probably skewed results; people who were self-quarantining were not tested. That said, I completely agree that the number of infections is probably far higher that what we have officially recorded. The question is, what is it? If the infection rate is, say, 5x higher, then the death rate would be many times worse than the flu. If it were 10x higher, then the actual death rate might be, say, .006% still quite a bit higher than the flu. But what if it turns out to be 100x higher? Then the death rate would be flu-like, and with adequate protections provided to the most vulnerable groups, we might be able to open the economy entirely, accepting flu-like death rates. (I doubt that would be the case, as we've never had this many deaths in so short a time, from a respiratory virus, since the Spanish Flu.)
As far as the false negatives are concerned, the doctor featured on CNN as their medical specialist, Sanjay Gupta, keeps citing the 15% false negatives as if that were an established fact; but I'm not sure that it continues to be, even though he continues to talk about that specific number.
In any case, I think it would be relatively simple and cheap to use standard polling techniques to find out about how many people are carrying the virus; I don't know why it hasn't been done. I'm not making any political accusations here -- neither red nor blue states have really done this. It may be a matter of "penny wise, pound foolish," thinking that the cost of a poll would be money better spent on other things related to the crisis. But that's probably incorrect, IMHO, for the relatively small amounts involved. I believe it would be really helpful to know about what we're dealing with -- I make no claims that such a technique would be perfect.
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John, they have done field epidemiology in New York, Los Angeles and Santa Clara county using blood tests for antibodies to COVID-19. In all cases the investigators showed many fold more infections than have been reported through the normal hospital based testing that was going on at the time. When the preprints came out all kinds of hate posts started appearing bitching about the sampling protocols and the poor reliability of the tests which was false in the two CA testing regimes as the researchers did their own in house validation and didn't simply rely on the manufacturers data. New York used a version of the Mt. Sinai developed test which is approved by the FDA and one of the best ones out there. IMO, the infection rate is a minimum of 10X the number of reported infections and this is similar to what the Italians are finding as well. Is it as high as 50-70X as the Santa Clara study showed? I don't know and maybe it is somewhere in between.
The bottom line is we have the tools to do this kind of testing right now even if we are not going to engage in a massive testing program. The failure of will at the National level is just stupifying to me. I have friends in the public health community that have documented what is needed to reopen things in a sane manner. We have millions of people unemployed and some of these folks won't see their jobs return. Retrain people to help out on the public health side doing contact tracing. They can earn money and contribute to the public good. This is not rocket science!!
So the NY governor did a test in NYC and found out 20% were infected. How did that help him? Is he changing policy or making policy because of that? How would it change policy? Why aren't other states doing it? Why wait for the federal government? 50 governors and no one's doing it? It seems like everyone passing the buck.
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I don't understand why the US doesn't do a thoroughly randomized study of exactly where we are in the epidemic here.
The U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases is currently enrolling "volunteers" for a large-scale national study (https://clinicalstudies.info.nih.gov/ProtocolDetails.aspx?A_2020-I-0083.html) (up to 10K participants) of the presence SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the American population.
This is not a randomized survey―probably, I suspect, because it requires acquiring blood, and it would be difficult to gain consent for that from a randomly-selected sample of participants―but the study's managers are requiring those who volunteer to respond to a qualifying questionnaire that presumably will be used to verify that the selected respondents are representative of the general population with respect to what they consider to be relevant demographic traits.
A fully-randomized sample survey would obviously be preferable, but given the urgency of making an initial estimate of the extent of COVID-19 infections and the difficulty of conducting invasive testing of individuals selected randomly, I can understand the rationale for this approach. The result should provide the first plausible estimate of how many people have been infected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the United States and, given the size of the sample, may provide useful information about the differential regional infection rates.
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The U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases is currently enrolling "volunteers" for a large-scale national study (https://clinicalstudies.info.nih.gov/ProtocolDetails.aspx?A_2020-I-0083.html) (up to 10K participants) of the presence SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in the American population.
This is not a randomized survey―probably, I suspect, because it requires acquiring blood, and it would be difficult to gain consent for that from a randomly-selected sample of participants―but the study's managers are requiring those who volunteer to respond to a qualifying questionnaire that presumably will be used to verify that the selected respondents are representative of the general population with respect to what they consider to be relevant demographic traits.
A fully-randomized sample survey would obviously be preferable, but given the urgency of making an initial estimate of the extent of COVID-19 infections and the difficulty of conducting invasive testing of individuals selected randomly, I can understand the rationale for this approach. The result should provide the first plausible estimate of how many people have been infected by the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the United States and, given the size of the sample, may provide useful information about the differential regional infection rates.
I'll try to address the comments in the last three posts by John, Alan and Chris. One can quibble with the sampling strategies used in Santa Clara but the researchers were trying to get results in a hurry. They acknowledged the issue which is why they presented the infection rate as a range. There were two very well known epidemiologists on that paper so I'm reasonably confident that they gave good thought to that matter. The reason for using the finger prick lateral flow test is that this can be done in the field and only requires a trained reader of the stick to make a determination. Yes, the accuracy is not as good as the automated analyzers but it is good enough for field work.
Alan raised the point of the high number of infections in New York. Yes, that is a large number but so is the total population of the city. The rate of infection was lower than observed in the Stanford study. I cannot remember what the Los Angeles data extrapolated out to.
Chris, I read the NIH protocol when it was released several weeks ago and was not impressed. One of the main reasons is they were not going to notify participants of their antibody status which I think is wrong and am surprised that the IRB let that one slide by. I would have made such notification mandatory were I on the IRB (this and other reasons are why I will never be picked to participate on one).
What I would do is mandate COVID-19 antibody testing any time someone goes in for a diagnostic blood draw. Both my wife and I have our physicals scheduled for next month and we are both going to request this as part of the panel. It's too bad the US healthcare system is so fragmented. Unless you are in a managed care system, there is no way to harmonize and exchange results. If there was they could use the blood draw information pretty easily as they do in Europe. You may scoff at the UK's NHS but they can run huge observational studies over the whole population very quickly and they have already done this in some papers I have read.
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I'll try to address the comments in the last three posts by John, Alan and Chris. One can quibble with the sampling strategies used in Santa Clara but the researchers were trying to get results in a hurry. They acknowledged the issue which is why they presented the infection rate as a range. There were two very well known epidemiologists on that paper so I'm reasonably confident that they gave good thought to that matter. The reason for using the finger prick lateral flow test is that this can be done in the field and only requires a trained reader of the stick to make a determination. Yes, the accuracy is not as good as the automated analyzers but it is good enough for field work.
Alan raised the point of the high number of infections in New York. Yes, that is a large number but so is the total population of the city. The rate of infection was lower than observed in the Stanford study. I cannot remember what the Los Angeles data extrapolated out to.
Chris, I read the NIH protocol when it was released several weeks ago and was not impressed. One of the main reasons is they were not going to notify participants of their antibody status which I think is wrong and am surprised that the IRB let that one slide by. I would have made such notification mandatory were I on the IRB (this and other reasons are why I will never be picked to participate on one).
What I would do is mandate COVID-19 antibody testing any time someone goes in for a diagnostic blood draw. Both my wife and I have our physicals scheduled for next month and we are both going to request this as part of the panel. It's too bad the US healthcare system is so fragmented. Unless you are in a managed care system, there is no way to harmonize and exchange results. If there was they could use the blood draw information pretty easily as they do in Europe. You may scoff at the UK's NHS but they can run huge observational studies over the whole population very quickly and they have already done this in some papers I have read.
Thanks Alan for your response. Could you tell us how knowing NYC has a 20% infection rate help NY's Governor Cuomo know when to open up? What if he did another test tomorrow and found it was 24%. Or 34%. Would it help him decide and why? The point of my question is everyone keeps talking about how important testing is. Why is it important other than know about rates. Does it change behavior and decision making? Or is it more about pointing fingers?
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Thanks Alan for your response. Could you tell us how knowing NYC has a 20% infection rate help NY's Governor Cuomo know when to open up? What if he did another test tomorrow and found it was 24%. Or 34%. Would it help him decide and why? The point of my question is everyone keeps talking about how important testing is. Why is it important other than know about rates. Does it change behavior and decision making? Or is it more about pointing fingers?
New York City will always be a tough call because of the heavy reliance on public transportation and high density of population. My 96 year old mother in law lives two blocks from Union Square and has a home healthcare worker come during the day for about 6 hours. She is still COVID-19 free! We don't know at what level 'herd immunity' kicks in. I read a paper this morning that conjectured that herd immunity might be lower for COVID-19 than for other respiratory viruses such as flu or like measles which is easily contracted. If everyone in NY City wore masks, transmission rates would go down and there is a possibility of staged opening of services. It may be that work schedules need to be readjusted so there are not huge groups of people on the subways or buses. Were I Cuomo (and I'm glad I am not), I would urge those >60 years old to continue sheltering in place. That is the population at risk and will continue to be at risk.
The more I read about the virus, the more weird things get. There appears to be a genetic predisposition to infection based on the binding site of the virus. Much more needs to be confirmed about this to assess who is at risk and who is not. There just are no easy answers. I do think parts of the economy will need to open quickly but for some businesses the damage is done. I cannot see the cruise ship industry coming back from this. There will be a lot of restaurant closures. The hospitality industry is taking a huge hit. large conventions likely won't be scheduled for the next 6-9 months. It's awful.
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New York City will always be a tough call because of the heavy reliance on public transportation and high density of population. My 96 year old mother in law lives two blocks from Union Square and has a home healthcare worker come during the day for about 6 hours. She is still COVID-19 free! We don't know at what level 'herd immunity' kicks in. I read a paper this morning that conjectured that herd immunity might be lower for COVID-19 than for other respiratory viruses such as flu or like measles which is easily contracted. If everyone in NY City wore masks, transmission rates would go down and there is a possibility of staged opening of services. It may be that work schedules need to be readjusted so there are not huge groups of people on the subways or buses. Were I Cuomo (and I'm glad I am not), I would urge those >60 years old to continue sheltering in place. That is the population at risk and will continue to be at risk.
The more I read about the virus, the more weird things get. There appears to be a genetic predisposition to infection based on the binding site of the virus. Much more needs to be confirmed about this to assess who is at risk and who is not. There just are no easy answers. I do think parts of the economy will need to open quickly but for some businesses the damage is done. I cannot see the cruise ship industry coming back from this. There will be a lot of restaurant closures. The hospitality industry is taking a huge hit. large conventions likely won't be scheduled for the next 6-9 months. It's awful.
I appreciate your responce. But you didn't answer my question.
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I appreciate your responce. But you didn't answer my question.
I did. there is not easy answer and it's going to be a hard call. I told you what my desired outcome would be. It won't be business as usual.
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I did. there is not easy answer and it's going to be a hard call. I told you what my desired outcome would be. It won't be business as usual.
If it's going to be a hard call, why is everyone saying we need to have a lot of testing? The NY Governor knows now that the percentage of infection in NYC is over 20%. But knowing that doesn;t seem to help in make a decision when to open up. So why is everyone getting all excited about the tests other than to make a political point? What is the scientific basis for knowing? How does that information help us determined when to open the country? If it doesn't, why is the information so critical? It seems to be an issue that people are making political points.
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If it's going to be a hard call, why is everyone saying we need to have a lot of testing? The NY Governor knows now that the percentage of infection in NYC is over 20%. But knowing that doesn;t seem to help in make a decision when to open up. So why is everyone getting all excited about the tests other than to make a political point? What is the scientific basis for knowing? How does that information help us determined when to open the country? If it doesn't, why is the information so critical? It seems to be an issue that people are making political points.
To assure ongoing safety in a pandemic, you need to implement a track and trace system and be able to lock down hot spots as quickly as possible. This is public health 101 and one thing that we know works. By doing lots of testing on a large scale, you know who has the virus, who has recovered and who is naive (e.g., never gotten it). This requires lots of people to do this kind of work though there are smart phone apps that can make this a lot easier to to do: see this link - https://pact.mit.edu/leadership/ The app was designed by Ron Rivest of MIT who was one of the designers of a widely used encryption algorithm. South Korea are using something like this in their public health response. The problem is Americans get super paranoid (IMO for no good reason as all data on a person is virtually everywhere these days) and likely would not use this approach.
There is no political point in all this. You need to be able to track and isolate.
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To assure ongoing safety in a pandemic, you need to implement a track and trace system and be able to lock down hot spots as quickly as possible. This is public health 101 and one thing that we know works. By doing lots of testing on a large scale, you know who has the virus, who has recovered and who is naive (e.g., never gotten it). This requires lots of people to do this kind of work though there are smart phone apps that can make this a lot easier to to do: see this link - https://pact.mit.edu/leadership/ The app was designed by Ron Rivest of MIT who was one of the designers of a widely used encryption algorithm. South Korea are using something like this in their public health response. The problem is Americans get super paranoid (IMO for no good reason as all data on a person is virtually everywhere these days) and likely would not use this approach.
There is no political point in all this. You need to be able to track and isolate.
What does track and trace have to do with testing and opening the economy? There's no way to test 340 million people daily to see who has the virus. How would you track the million people who use the NYC subways every day (before the shutdown), coughing and sneezing on each other, etc. ? Over two million New Yorkers already have had the infection according to sampling tests. How do the Chinese and the So Koreans track and isolate? Again, the question is how does testing stop the virus and allow leaders to make decisions on when to open their economies? YOur answer isn't clear.
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Social distancing now mandated everywhere.
(https://cdn.prod.www.spiegel.de/images/a93e42ec-cb7f-4a42-927f-ff23c35e3b10_w872_r1.77_fpx48_fpy50.jpg)
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Social distancing now mandated everywhere.
(https://cdn.prod.www.spiegel.de/images/a93e42ec-cb7f-4a42-927f-ff23c35e3b10_w872_r1.77_fpx48_fpy50.jpg)
At the theatre, that's going to make Men's Room lines as long as the Women's.
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If it's going to be a hard call, why is everyone saying we need to have a lot of testing?
When the economy is restarted, as soon as someone develops symptoms then he/she needs to be tested if it indeed is SARS-CoV-2. So there must be no shortage of testing capabilities. If he/she is tested positive then that person must be isolated, and then all contacts since the moment one is assumed to have been contagious must be quarantined and also tested, and if positive put in isolation.
That will reduce the spread of the virus, while those who test negative can resume their (economic) activities.
It seems to be an issue that people are making political points.
No, it's not a conspiracy, it's plain logical thinking.
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What does track and trace have to do with testing and opening the economy? There's no way to test 340 million people daily to see who has the virus. How would you track the million people who use the NYC subways every day (before the shutdown), coughing and sneezing on each other, etc. ? Over two million New Yorkers already have had the infection according to sampling tests. How do the Chinese and the So Koreans track and isolate? Again, the question is how does testing stop the virus and allow leaders to make decisions on when to open their economies? YOur answer isn't clear.
The South Koreans use smart phone apps to track contacts using blue tooth technology. There is an MIT group that has developed the same thing. You don't test everyone all the time. You do need a lot more testing capacity than we have today. This will answer your questions: https://www.businessinsider.com/how-contact-tracing-works-to-stop-coronavirus-spread-2020-4 I'm sorry that I don't have time to write something out for you.
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At the theatre, that's going to make Men's Room lines as long as the Women's.
No worry, the theatre won't be full, as inside there will be 3 empty seats required for the minimum 6ft distance from the next patron.
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No worry, the theatre won't be full, as inside there will be 3 empty seats required for the minimum 6ft distance from the next patron.
So I can sit 3 seats away from my wife?
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I came across this explanation and assessment of exposure risk in various environments, https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20200511&instance_id=18384&nl=the-morning®i_id=126613086&segment_id=27239&te=1&user_id=c1834331bc3a62565e410c2d2e882538&fbclid=IwAR2vp3q_-U18S4TVmxQWnFEOOZ4hvhOFMy7gMgqh-JxcEdKs5qncoL56rC4 (https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them?campaign_id=9&emc=edit_nn_20200511&instance_id=18384&nl=the-morning®i_id=126613086&segment_id=27239&te=1&user_id=c1834331bc3a62565e410c2d2e882538&fbclid=IwAR2vp3q_-U18S4TVmxQWnFEOOZ4hvhOFMy7gMgqh-JxcEdKs5qncoL56rC4).
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When the economy is restarted, as soon as someone develops symptoms then he/she needs to be tested if it indeed is SARS-CoV-2. So there must be no shortage of testing capabilities. If he/she is tested positive then that person must be isolated, and then all contacts since the moment one is assumed to have been contagious must be quarantined and also tested, and if positive put in isolation.
That will reduce the spread of the virus, while those who test negative can resume their (economic) activities.
No, it's not a conspiracy, it's plain logical thinking.
Testing doesn;t seem to be a problem here in Central NJ if you want to get a test. It seems all the towns in the area have these set up. Anyone can have a test if they want. No symptoms required. Currently 29% of those tested in my town were positive. Of course, those are not random tests so there's no way to know the true rate. If the random rate is over 20% as was discovered in NYC, there no way to testing will help you find anyone except those that ask for the tests. You can't test two million people. That's just in NYC.
My friend apparently had the virus. But he recovered at home. Never went to the hospital and was never tested. So how to you trace and track?
It's still not clear how testing helps determine when to open the economy in an area which is what testing was touted. While trace and track might be a good idea, how do you do that if most people are asymptomatic and are never tested? Sure you can track those that come in sick. But those who stay home like my friend or who don;t have symptoms but still pass along the virus won't be tracked. Maybe I'm missing something someone you could explain here.
As an aside, who's tracing and tracking and quarantining in any of the 50 states? Is that constitutional? You're going to lock people up for 14 days without a court order? Shades of Japanese internment camps of WWII? Who's doing this in Europe? Canada? Australia?
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Testing doesn;t seem to be a problem here in Central NJ if you want to get a test. It seems all the towns in the area have these set up. Anyone can have a test if they want. No symptoms required. Currently 29% of those tested in my town were positive. Of course, those are not random tests so there's no way to know the true rate. If the random rate is over 20% as was discovered in NYC, there no way to testing will help you find anyone except those that ask for the tests. You can't test two million people. That's just in NYC.
My friend apparently had the virus. But he recovered at home. Never went to the hospital and was never tested. So how to you trace and track?
It's still not clear how testing helps determine when to open the economy in an area which is what testing was touted. While trace and track might be a good idea, how do you do that if most people are asymptomatic and are never tested? Sure you can track those that come in sick. But those who stay home like my friend or who don;t have symptoms but still pass along the virus won't be tracked. Maybe I'm missing something someone you could explain here.
You have lots of questions for me an others. Here are some for you:
When will you and your wife go out for dinner at a restaurant?
When will you book a plane ticket?
When will you go on a cruise ship for a vacation?
When will you go out shopping at a mall?
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As an aside, who's tracing and tracking and quarantining in any of the 50 states? Is that constitutional? You're going to lock people up for 14 days without a court order? Shades of Japanese internment camps of WWII? Who's doing this in Europe? Canada? Australia?
Once again, you really should be using your "playpen" thread for these bizarre rhetorical rants.
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As an aside, who's tracing and tracking and quarantining in any of the 50 states? Is that constitutional? You're going to lock people up for 14 days without a court order? Shades of Japanese internment camps of WWII? Who's doing this in Europe? Canada? Australia?
Well I can only speak for Australia.
Any new arrival from anywhere, even Australians, if they are more than 20 minutes from home, must spend 14 days in quarantine. They are taken by bus from the tarmac.
It is in a 5 star hotel paid for by the state government. They can not leave the room. Police and military (unarmed) enforce it. All meals are brought to them. After 14 days they are given a letter saying they have been quarantined and taken to the airport to catch a flight domestically.
We have a Covid Safe App that works on Bluetooth for Apple and Android. It is voluntary but to date about 5 million out of 25 million population have downloaded it. The Federal government wants 8 million.
This morning we had no new cases (first time) from about 8000 tests and no deaths in NSW which has a population of about 7.5 million. They are testing anyone with any flu like symptoms however mild. Kids are now going back to school and restaurants are being progressively reopened with restrictions from Friday. Many are saying they are staying closed because they are uneconomical to open with reduced seating.
There are a few Covidiots protesting about their freedom and they get a $1000 first offence social distancing fine for their trouble. Most are just doing the right thing. The government is paying $1500 per fortnight as a Jobkeeper Payment to keep people employed, which is more money than they sometimes earn anyway. Not sure how long they will keep doing that.
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Once again, you really should be using your "playpen" thread for these bizarre rhetorical rants.
If you don't have an answer to the question, just let others give it a try instead of resorting to insults.
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Well I can only speak for Australia.
Any new arrival from anywhere, even Australians, if they are more than 20 minutes from home, must spend 14 days in quarantine. They are taken by bus from the tarmac.
It is in a 5 star hotel paid for by the state government. They can not leave the room. Police and military (unarmed) enforce it. All meals are brought to them. After 14 days they are given a letter saying they have been quarantined and taken to the airport to catch a flight domestically.
We have a Covid Safe App that works on Bluetooth for Apple and Android. It is voluntary but to date about 5 million out of 25 million population have downloaded it. The Federal government wants 8 million.
This morning we had no new cases (first time) from about 8000 tests and no deaths in NSW which has a population of about 7.5 million. They are testing anyone with any flu like symptoms however mild. Kids are now going back to school and restaurants are being progressively reopened with restrictions from Friday. Many are saying they are staying closed because they are uneconomical to open with reduced seating.
There are a few Covidiots protesting about their freedom and they get a $1000 first offence social distancing fine for their trouble. Most are just doing the right thing. The government is paying $1500 per fortnight as a Jobkeeper Payment to keep people employed, which is more money than they sometimes earn anyway. Not sure how long they will keep doing that.
Are people allowed to be quarantined who are found to be sick or possibly sick because they came in contact with a carrier?
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The head of Johnson & Johnson says they hope to have a good vaccine by the first of the year.
https://www.wfla.com/community/health/coronavirus/johnson-and-johnson-aiming-for-1-billion-vaccines-in-2021/
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The head of Johnson & Johnson says they hope to have a good vaccine by the first of the year.
https://www.wfla.com/community/health/coronavirus/johnson-and-johnson-aiming-for-1-billion-vaccines-in-2021/
I heard today that CHina was caught infiltrating the computer of pharmaceutical companies in America to steal vaccine secrets. They're at it again, They never stop. If they succeed, then the rest of the world could be beholden to them for a cure.
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Are people allowed to be quarantined who are found to be sick or possibly sick because they came in contact with a carrier?
If you contact a carrier and are not sick you get 14 days at home and they come around or check daily that you are at home.
https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-close-contacts-of-a-confirmed-case
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The head of Johnson & Johnson says they hope to have a good vaccine by the first of the year.
https://www.wfla.com/community/health/coronavirus/johnson-and-johnson-aiming-for-1-billion-vaccines-in-2021/
This is not really a new statement from J&J. The production number and clinical trial program was announced a month ago.
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If you contact a carrier and are not sick you get 14 days at home and they come around or check daily that you are at home.
https://www.health.gov.au/resources/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-information-for-close-contacts-of-a-confirmed-case
It says what you should do. But are these rules mandatory and are there penalties? We had recommendation where if you visited NYC during the previous 14 days, you ought to self-isolate to prevent disease spreading in your community. I did isolate but I had visited NYC 13 days earlier so it was only a day. But there were no penalties as far as I knew.
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This is not really a new statement from J&J. The production number and clinical trial program was announced a month ago.
Can it be proven as efficacious by the first of the year so people can start getting it?
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It says what you should do. But are these rules mandatory and are there penalties?
In Australia yes and yes. They check you are there daily and if not $1000 first offence.
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In Australia yes and yes. They check you are there daily and if not $1000 first offence.
How was the rule made? Who made the rule and penalty?
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This reminds me of of Bloomberg when he was mayor of NYC. He wanted to limit the size of sweet soda you can buy to 16 ounces because people were getting obese and diabetes from all the sugar. So he had the chief doctor of the city rule that it was unhealthy and that containers over 16 ounces could no longer be used. He was sued in court by Coca Cola I think, McDonalds and others. The NY State Appeals or Supreme Court maybe both, judged his rule unconstitutional. It was never approved by the NY City Counsel as required. The mayor is not a king.
Curious how Australia handled it?
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This reminds me of of Bloomberg when he was mayor of NYC. He wanted to limit the size of sweet soda you can buy to 16 ounces because people were getting obese and diabetes from all the sugar. So he had the chief doctor of the city rule that it was unhealthy and that containers over 16 ounces could no longer be used. He was sued in court by Coca Cola I think, McDonalds and others. The NY State Appeals or Supreme Court maybe both, judged his rule unconstitutional. It was never approved by the NY City Counsel as required. The mayor is not a king.
Curious how Australia handled it?
Well he had the right intentions...the obesity wave continues. Sometimes right is wrong.
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Well he had the right intentions...the obesity wave continues. Sometimes right is wrong.
Leaders have to follow the rule like everyone else. everyone thinks their thinking is right. Don;t we see it here in the forums? yet we rely on elections and democracy to make the rules we want to live by.
By the way, the NY City Counsel never passed the rule Bloomberg wanted. So New Yorkers are still getting obese. :)
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How was the rule made? Who made the rule and penalty?
Normally laws take 6 mths to a year. These are being made overnight under State of Emergency provisions.
Each state Premier gives a Press conference each morning.
All rules and penalties are state based except for entry and exit of the country.
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Normally laws take 6 mths to a year. These are being made overnight under State of Emergency provisions.
Each state Premier gives a Press conference each morning.
All rules and penalties are state based except for entry and exit of the country.
Can Premier do whatever they want? What are their constraints? Where do State of Emergency provision begin and end? Are there legal challenges? What if a farmer wants to till his field or check hs fences? Would they arrest him even if by himself?
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Can Premier do whatever they want? What are their constraints? Where do State of Emergency provision begin and end? Are there legal challenges? What if a farmer wants to till his field or check hs fences? Would they arrest him even if by himself?
> Can Premier do whatever they want? What are their constraints? Where do State of Emergency provision begin and end? Are there legal challenges?
All above my pay grade. Suffice to say they can get away with most things as the opposition is supporting the government on the basis of common sense.
It really helps if both sides of politics work in the national interest.
>What if a farmer wants to till his field or check hs fences? Would they arrest him even if by himself?
Interesting question. OK on his own property, but one government minister drove a 100km to another property and was fined I believe.
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Once again, you really should be using your "playpen" thread for these bizarre rhetorical rants.
If you don't have an answer to the question, just let others give it a try instead of resorting to insults.
Chris Kern is always unfailingly courteous and has provided plenty of insightful and valuable commentary, at the risk of being impolite, you have not, and persist in diluting this thread with your quasi monopolistic approach. 21 out of the last 47 posts, (44%), despite repeated requests to not treat this thread as a chat room, have clearly fallen on deaf ears.
Try and control yourself, pretty please.
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Chris Kern is always unfailingly courteous and has provided plenty of insightful and valuable commentary, at the risk of being impolite, you have not, and persist in diluting this thread with your quasi monopolistic approach. 21 out of the last 47 posts, (44%), despite repeated requests to not treat this thread as a chat room, have clearly fallen on deaf ears.
Try and control yourself, pretty please.
Chris's criticism of my question about the legality of arresting or fining people who don't stay home deserved a response from me. His calling my post "a bizarre rhetorical rant" is demeaning. Just because you started this thread, you don't have the right to tell people how and what to post because you don't agree with the poster. Silencing people with who you disagree with is not what this forum is about.
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Cute but poor attempt to divert from what I said.
This is not about telling you how and what to post, even less about disagreeing with you. It's asking you, yet again, to give some consideration to 'what' you post and not let rip with your abundance of questions - questions that could often easily be answered by the simplest of google searches or even reading the odd newspaper. It's a question of consideration for many contributing here, myself included, who don't feel that a hit ratio of 44% is within the bounds of forum civility.
It's a forum, not a chat room - there's a difference.
Chris's criticism of my question about the legality of arresting or fining people who don't stay home deserved a response from me. His calling my post "a bizarre rhetorical rant" is demeaning. Just because you started this thread, you don't have the right to tell people how and what to post because you don't agree with the poster. Silencing people with who you disagree with is not what this forum is about.
Edit: ... and Chris is correct, you posted in the wrong forum. Legality etc etc is for your own carefully curated thread.
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Cute but poor attempt to divert from what I said.
This is not about telling you how and what to post, even less about disagreeing with you. It's asking you, yet again, to give some consideration to 'what' you post and not let rip with your abundance of questions - questions that could often easily be answered by the simplest of google searches or even reading the odd newspaper. It's a question of consideration for many contributing here, myself included, who don't feel that a hit ratio of 44% is within the bounds of forum civility.
It's a forum, not a chat room - there's a difference.
Edit: ... and Chris is correct, you posted in the wrong forum. Legality etc etc is for your own carefully curated thread.
You can't fine tune how you want others to post their thoughts. It's too narrow. In any case, discussing whether actions are legal has little to do with politics. How can you discuss what procedures government should implement without including the legal basis of those rules? Whether they're legal or not has huge implications of what a government can do and how you attack the virus. Additionally, this being an international forum, the laws are different from nation to nation. What might be allowed in one country is prohibited in another. Not being able to comment on legal application does not add to the discussion.
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Recently, one of the most brilliant scientists/researchers dies in Portugal, age 80, from C-19. She left an open letter as a testimony for future generations. I used an online translator, so apologies, but the general meaning is clear.
"Posthumous testimony by the 80-year-old scientist Maria de Sousa, who died on April 14 with covid-19.
Prof. of the Medical School of Univ. from Lisbon and researcher at the João Lobo Antunes Institute of Molecular Medicine
She realized the organized migration of lymphocytes, cells of the immune system, has her name in the manuals about this system.
This text is an important lesson, of knowledge and lucidity, that Maria de Sousa leaves to all of us.
This testimony should be given to be read and explained to all young people, in schools and in families (not to mention adults, rulers or ordinary citizens) because it represents a sure warning and alert pointed to the problems of today and the immediate future.
Open letter from an optimistic scientist to new generations
The scientist Maria de Sousa, upon learning that she was infected with covid-19 and aware of her high-risk situation, said goodbye saying:
"I hope to endure through those who stay alive". As painful and sad as death is, life as we know it on Earth is infinite. The new generations succeed one another cyclically and it is always up to them to build our collective future.
It is part of being young to be convinced that we will be able to change the world for the better.
I am no longer chronologically young, but I still believe in an optimistic scenario for the future of humanity!
It takes courage to change, especially when our current lifestyle is so comfortable.
However, the scientific evidence is irrefutable: man's exploitation of nature is unsustainable.
We are obsessed with economic growth, but it is not possible for the economies of all countries to continue to grow indefinitely. I believe it is essential that today's young people become aware of the inevitable short-term risks and make their voices heard, putting pressure on society for change.
I believe that science and technology will become even more essential in our lives. We need rigorous observations and measurements of everything that is happening in all places on the planet to be alert and know where to act. But above all, we need new solutions to live in harmony with the Earth, from new ways of moving to new ways of eating and recycling the garbage we produce. New solutions to a problem do not suddenly appear out of nowhere. Years of intense scientific research are needed, and many problems are still to be solved.
For example, regarding the current pandemic, it is important to remember that between 1918 and 1919 there was an outbreak of infection caused by a new influenza virus that killed around 50 million people worldwide. Protective masks, disinfectants and social distancing were already used, but there were no diagnostic tests, no medications, no ventilators. The first flu vaccine was developed in 1940 and applied only to the military. In 1960 alone, after a pandemic caused by a new influenza virus that killed more than a million people between 1957 and 1958 worldwide, vaccination programs for high-risk groups (ie people with chronic illnesses) began or older than 65). A vaccine confers immunity against a specific type of virus. Now, the flu virus changes its genetic information very often, giving rise to new forms of viruses that escape the effect of the vaccine. This genetic diversity also gives rise, occasionally, to more aggressive forms of viruses that cause pandemics. It happened again in 1968, with more than one million deaths worldwide, and just ten years ago, in 2009, causing the death of around 600 thousand people worldwide. Because the ability to reinvent itself genetically is a characteristic of all viruses, humanity has always been and will continue to be subject to outbreaks of infection by new viruses. This was the case of HIV - human immunodeficiency virus, which causes AIDS. This new disease began to be detected in 1981 in the USA and has already killed 32 million people worldwide. In 1994, AIDS was, in the USA, the main cause of death for people between 25 and 44 years old. It was only in 1995 that the first drugs began to be tested, which would have great success, preventing deaths and turning AIDS into a chronic disease.
More recently, in 2003, the first cases of a new respiratory disease called SARS, caused by a coronavirus related to the current SARS-CoV-2, were reported in China. In the midst of a pandemic, society is asking scientists for effective drugs and vaccines.
What lessons can be learned for the future? Above all, new generations must be aware that they are going to be faced with great challenges. The lack of respect for wild animals, victims of capture and commercialization, favors human infection by new viruses (or other pathogenic microorganisms) that could cause mortality rates much higher than the current pandemic. Many models still practiced in the agricultural industry encourage the destruction of forests, interfere with soil quality, are polluters and favor the spread of epidemics in plants and animals. There will certainly be major natural disasters like fires, storms and earthquakes. Climate change is an installed reality. It will run out of water and increase pollution. The societies of the future will depend on science and technology to deal with disasters. But today's societies insist on ignoring scientists' multiple warnings of imminent dangers that can still be avoided.
For this reason, I leave here my appeal to the new generations to end once and for all the illusion that it will be possible to continue living with today's habits and doing the usual business. My other appeal is to value and cultivate science. All young people, regardless of their future professions, must be trained to apply the scientific method to the problems they encounter on a daily basis. Strict observation, logical reasoning in deductions, conclusions based on experimentation. In parallel, science-related professions must be attractive and desirable. This implies organization, infrastructure and resources that are constantly updated.
Finally, a warning: all areas of knowledge are equally important. The most transformative technological advances resulted from discoveries that might, at first glance, seem irrelevant. For the advancement of science there are no useless research topics, as long as the questions are well formulated.
And science cannot fail to advance, otherwise we will not be able to solve the immense challenges that we will face!"
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Can it be proven as efficacious by the first of the year so people can start getting it?
the plan is to do human challenge experiments in young healthy people at some point. These involve giving them the vaccine and after an appropriate time exposing them to COVID-19 and see if they get sick. There is a lot of pressure to get a vaccine approved ASAP and this will likely be a political call by FDA. The fastest development time for a human vaccine in the US was just under four years for the mumps vaccine. If one or more vaccines is approved next January it will be 9 months. I think there will be several different vaccines approved and we won't have all the safety data that is usually acquired in vaccine trials.
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https://www.cambridge.org/engage/coe/article-details/5ead2b518d7bf7001951c5a5?fbclid=IwAR37L9_paTS2PusRlqtCrUSUqwWQEiKtC-kEVb4KXctXa8GqQAKPVSHUtN4
I am not sure about the degree of peer review this article has undergone and I would lie if I claimed that I have put the time in needed to understand all of it.
But what I understand it says is extremely interesting.
- It is based on Japan situation but can be extended to other countries
- It relies on the analysis of competing viruses, for example between flu and covid19. By monitoring the amount of flu infections it would be possible to guess the presence of another virus even if there are no clear symptoms yet
- the analysis of flu infection curve could have been used to trigger public health measures as early as January
- a Canadian AI system called Global Early Warning system detected the Wuhan pneumonia outbreak on 31-Dec
- There are probably 3 types of Corona: S, K and G in increasing levels of severity (G probably being a later mutation deriving from K)
- Contagion for S and K type probably started late 2019, G appeared globally in February and entered some specific parts of Japan early March but didn't spread to the whole country
- People who had K type are mostly immune to the most severe G type, but people who had S type could actually be more at risk relative to type G
- There is a high probability that many prefectures in Japan already have K type herd immunity
- Some countries, in particular the US, are likely to have been in contact with S type but not K type (since the inflow of people from China was stopped early) which would explain the high mortality
- It stressed the importance of taking the right measures in the right timing to both allow the spread of low severity forms to build herd immunity but then prevent the spread of high severity forms.
Cheers,
Bernard
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the plan is to do human challenge experiments in young healthy people at some point. These involve giving them the vaccine and after an appropriate time exposing them to COVID-19 and see if they get sick. There is a lot of pressure to get a vaccine approved ASAP and this will likely be a political call by FDA. The fastest development time for a human vaccine in the US was just under four years for the mumps vaccine. If one or more vaccines is approved next January it will be 9 months. I think there will be several different vaccines approved and we won't have all the safety data that is usually acquired in vaccine trials.
Sounds very iffy. Thanks.
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https://www.cambridge.org/engage/coe/article-details/5ead2b518d7bf7001951c5a5?fbclid=IwAR37L9_paTS2PusRlqtCrUSUqwWQEiKtC-kEVb4KXctXa8GqQAKPVSHUtN4
I am not sure about the degree of peer review this article has undergone and I would lie if I claimed that I have put the time in needed to understand all of it.
But what I understand it says is extremely interesting.
- It is based on Japan situation but can be extended to other countries
- It relies on the analysis of competing viruses, for example between flu and covid19. By monitoring the amount of flu infections it would be possible to guess the presence of another virus even if there are no clear symptoms yet
- the analysis of flu infection curve could have been used to trigger public health measures as early as January
- a Canadian AI system called Global Early Warning system detected the Wuhan pneumonia outbreak on 31-Dec
- There are probably 3 types of Corona: S, K and G in increasing levels of severity (G probably being a later mutation deriving from K)
- Contagion for S and K type probably started late 2019, G appeared globally in February and entered some specific parts of Japan early March but didn't spread to the whole country
- People who had K type are mostly immune to the most severe G type, but people who had S type could actually be more at risk relative to type G
- There is a high probability that many prefectures in Japan already have K type herd immunity
- Some countries, in particular the US, are likely to have been in contact with S type but not K type (since the inflow of people from China was stopped early) which would explain the high mortality
- It stressed the importance of taking the right measures in the right timing to both allow the spread of low severity forms to build herd immunity but then prevent the spread of high severity forms.
Cheers,
Bernard
Isn't that a little late? The train's already pulled out of the station.
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If it proves out, it is useful hindsight and understanding. Gives us avenues to explore for the next one.
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There seems to be a significant paradox involving the benefits of Vitamin D from sun exposure, and the risk of Melanoma and other skin cancers from sun exposure. I would deduce, by applying a bit of logic, that prolonged deficiency in Vitamin D will reduce the body's ability to resist the damaging effects of sun burn when a person occasionally lies on the beach during holidays or a long weekend, hence the advice to always apply sun screen lotion.
Dr Rachel Neale has promoted the greater use of sun screen lotion in the past, but recently appears to have changed her mind.
"Rachel Neale did her PhD in skin cancer prevention and has done plenty of research into the dangers of sunlight. Yet every day around noon the professor strips down into shorts, or maybe pulls up her skirt, exposes a bit of belly if there’s no one around, and bares as much of her skin as she can to the hard Brisbane sun.
It’s only for five to 10 minutes. But having last year published the most comprehensive review and meta-analysis of the effect that vitamin D has on acute respiratory tract infections, she’s in a good position to judge what may be helpful if she ever gets exposed to COVID-19.
In Neale’s review, which encompassed 78,000 participants, it was found that those with low levels of vitamin D — the “sunshine vitamin” — were almost twice as likely as those with high vitamin D levels to get the type of extreme lung infections that now are killing COVID-19 sufferers, and they were even more likely again to be sicker for longer.
And so how does this translate to the pandemic? “Now, more than ever, is not the time to be vitamin D deficient,” Neale says from Brisbane’s QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute. “It would make sense that being vitamin D deficient would increase the risk of having symptomatic COVID-19 and potentially having worse symptoms. And that’s because vitamin D seems to have important effects on the immune system.”
For all vitamin D’s advantages, Neale doesn’t take vitamin D pills. She is cognizant of the emerging evidence that the sun provides more benefits than just the sunshine vitamin."
Unfortunately the link to this information, which includes lots of related articles, seems to be behind a paywall, but I'll provide it, just in case it's useful.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/sunlights-role-in-containing-the-coronavirus/news-story/ea0104fac291d253e4fd6b06629ab74b
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https://www.cambridge.org/engage/coe/article-details/5ead2b518d7bf7001951c5a5?fbclid=IwAR37L9_paTS2PusRlqtCrUSUqwWQEiKtC-kEVb4KXctXa8GqQAKPVSHUtN4
I am not sure about the degree of peer review this article has undergone and I would lie if I claimed that I have put the time in needed to understand all of it.
But what I understand it says is extremely interesting.
- It is based on Japan situation but can be extended to other countries
- It relies on the analysis of competing viruses, for example between flu and covid19. By monitoring the amount of flu infections it would be possible to guess the presence of another virus even if there are no clear symptoms yet
- the analysis of flu infection curve could have been used to trigger public health measures as early as January
- a Canadian AI system called Global Early Warning system detected the Wuhan pneumonia outbreak on 31-Dec
- There are probably 3 types of Corona: S, K and G in increasing levels of severity (G probably being a later mutation deriving from K)
- Contagion for S and K type probably started late 2019, G appeared globally in February and entered some specific parts of Japan early March but didn't spread to the whole country
- People who had K type are mostly immune to the most severe G type, but people who had S type could actually be more at risk relative to type G
- There is a high probability that many prefectures in Japan already have K type herd immunity
- Some countries, in particular the US, are likely to have been in contact with S type but not K type (since the inflow of people from China was stopped early) which would explain the high mortality
- It stressed the importance of taking the right measures in the right timing to both allow the spread of low severity forms to build herd immunity but then prevent the spread of high severity forms.
Cheers,
Bernard
I have not seen any paper (and I have probably read more than 1000 abstracts over the past eight weeks) that makes these kinds of claims about differing strains and mortality. the Hokkaido experience argues against herd mortality. We also are seeing new outbreaks in China and all residents of Wuhan are now going to be tested (11 million tests!!!).
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I have not seen any paper (and I have probably read more than 1000 abstracts over the past eight weeks) that makes these kinds of claims about differing strains and mortality. the Hokkaido experience argues against herd mortality. We also are seeing new outbreaks in China and all residents of Wuhan are now going to be tested (11 million tests!!!).
Does China have different tests? Are they better or worse? Can we produce enough of the tests required? Is the problem getting trained people to give the tests?
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There seems to be a significant paradox involving the benefits of Vitamin D from sun exposure, and the risk of Melanoma and other skin cancers from sun exposure. I would deduce, by applying a bit of logic, that prolonged deficiency in Vitamin D will reduce the body's ability to resist the damaging effects of sun burn when a person occasionally lies on the beach during holidays or a long weekend, hence the advice to always apply sun screen lotion.
Dr Rachel Neale has promoted the greater use of sun screen lotion in the past, but recently appears to have changed her mind.
"Rachel Neale did her PhD in skin cancer prevention and has done plenty of research into the dangers of sunlight. Yet every day around noon the professor strips down into shorts, or maybe pulls up her skirt, exposes a bit of belly if there’s no one around, and bares as much of her skin as she can to the hard Brisbane sun.
It’s only for five to 10 minutes. But having last year published the most comprehensive review and meta-analysis of the effect that vitamin D has on acute respiratory tract infections, she’s in a good position to judge what may be helpful if she ever gets exposed to COVID-19.
In Neale’s review, which encompassed 78,000 participants, it was found that those with low levels of vitamin D — the “sunshine vitamin” — were almost twice as likely as those with high vitamin D levels to get the type of extreme lung infections that now are killing COVID-19 sufferers, and they were even more likely again to be sicker for longer.
And so how does this translate to the pandemic? “Now, more than ever, is not the time to be vitamin D deficient,” Neale says from Brisbane’s QIMR Berghofer Medical Research Institute. “It would make sense that being vitamin D deficient would increase the risk of having symptomatic COVID-19 and potentially having worse symptoms. And that’s because vitamin D seems to have important effects on the immune system.”
For all vitamin D’s advantages, Neale doesn’t take vitamin D pills. She is cognizant of the emerging evidence that the sun provides more benefits than just the sunshine vitamin."
Unfortunately the link to this information, which includes lots of related articles, seems to be behind a paywall, but I'll provide it, just in case it's useful.
https://www.theaustralian.com.au/inquirer/sunlights-role-in-containing-the-coronavirus/news-story/ea0104fac291d253e4fd6b06629ab74b
Although I have cancer in my family and have had it myself (not skin), I don't use suntan lotion. I might be making a mistake. But I feel that some sun is good. I'll limit myself to maybe ten minutes or so and then duck into the shade or cover myself. Years ago I would lay out and burn. But no longer. But I feel a little but of everything is healthy in moderation. I also have a skin doctor look me over once a year and remove any pre-cancerous things he might find.
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Although I have cancer in my family and have had it myself (not skin), I don't use suntan lotion. I might be making a mistake. But I feel that some sun is good. I'll limit myself to maybe ten minutes or so and then duck into the shade or cover myself. Years ago I would lay out and burn. But no longer. But I feel a little but of everything is healthy in moderation. I also have a skin doctor look me over once a year and remove any pre-cancerous things he might find.
Likewise. I never use sun protection creme. In the summer or when in sunny destinations, I try to avoid the midday sun, and wear a hat, long pants and long-sleeved shirts.
When swimming and drying out on the shore, I take off everything, except my Euro-length shorts rather than the 30 inches long American style.
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Does China have different tests? Are they better or worse? Can we produce enough of the tests required? Is the problem getting trained people to give the tests?
China is now building test facilities in Serbia and selling test kits also to other countries. But they are no good.
A Chinese-built state-of-the-art laboratory is helping to nearly double Serbia’s testing capacity for COVID-19, the lung disease caused by the new coronavirus, in the latest example of close ties between Belgrade and Beijing. The Huo-Yan National Laboratory for Molecular Detection of Infectious Agents in Belgrade is the first that the Beijing Genomics Institute (BGI) has helped to build in Europe and has the capacity to carry out more than 2,000 tests a day.
The 1.2 million Chinese antibody tests that the Slovak government bought from local middlemen for 15 million euros ($16 million) are inaccurate and unable to detect Covid-19 in its early stages, according to Prime Minister Igor Matovic, who only took office last month. “We have a ton and no use for them,” he said. They should “just be thrown straight into the Danube.”
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/faulty-virus-tests-cloud-china-s-european-outreach-over-covid-19
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China is now building test facilities in Serbia and selling test kits also to other countries. But they are no good.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-04-01/faulty-virus-tests-cloud-china-s-european-outreach-over-covid-19
Throwing them "straight into the Danube" seems reckless.
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Throwing them "straight into the Danube" seems reckless.
Yes, they would float all the way to Hungary.
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China is now building test facilities in Serbia and selling test kits also to other countries. But they are no good.
That is a false statement. Some of the tests have too many false results and some of them are quite good. Any clinical laboratory worth their salt will validate any test regardless of who manufactured it or where.
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That is a false statement. Some of the tests have too many false results and some of them are quite good. Any clinical laboratory worth their salt will validate any test regardless of who manufactured it or where.
Right! Even a broken watch will show correct time twice a day.
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Right! Even a broken watch will show correct time twice a day.
Take this kind of talk elsewhere. There are a number of tests from China, Singapore and South Korea that perform exceptionally well. You need to realize that there is no test that is 100% accurate and the highly touted quick test that is used to screen people going into the White House has one of the poorest performances of all the RT-PCR tests.
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Take this kind of talk elsewhere. There are a number of tests from China, Singapore and South Korea that perform exceptionally well. You need to realize that there is no test that is 100% accurate and the highly touted quick test that is used to screen people going into the White House has one of the poorest performances of all the RT-PCR tests.
OK, fair enough. I read about several instances when initially the test results were negative and only the subsequent tests indicated presence of the virus.
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OK, fair enough. I read about several instances when initially the test results were negative and only the subsequent tests indicated presence of the virus.
Yes. Just like Mike Pence's spokesperson. She was doing beautifully on the tests and then one day something happened and all of a sudden she tested positive.
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Interesting data about the spread capabilities of the C19 virus:
A single breath releases 50 - 5000 droplets. Most of these droplets are low velocity and fall to the ground quickly. There are even fewer droplets released through nose-breathing. Importantly, due to the lack of exhalation force with a breath, viral particles from the lower respiratory areas are not expelled.
A single cough releases about 3,000 droplets and droplets travels at 50 miles per hour. Most droplets are large, and fall quickly (gravity), but many do stay in the air and can travel across a room in a few seconds.
A single sneeze releases about 30,000 droplets, with droplets traveling at up to 200 miles per hour. Most droplets are small and travel great distances (easily across a room).
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Ann interesting story from the NYT news service in the local paper saying that all deadly pandemics actually have two endings -- one social and one medical. Social is when people begin to reopen, accepting further damage from the disease; and the medical ending, when the disease eventually disappears. This is true all the way back to the early bubonic plagues. The bottom line, according to the story, and it uses this word, is that all pandemic endings are "messy."
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Ann interesting story from the NYT news service in the local paper saying that all deadly pandemics actually have two endings -- one social and one medical.
The Times piece, by science reporter Gina Kolata, is available here (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/10/health/coronavirus-plague-pandemic-history.html). Well-researched, well-written, and a good historical perspective that may hold some clues about the (hopefully near) future.
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The Times piece, by science reporter Gina Kolata, is available here (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/05/10/health/coronavirus-plague-pandemic-history.html). Well-researched, well-written, and a good historical perspective that may hold some clues about the (hopefully near) future.
Interesting. Thanks for sharing.
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Although I have cancer in my family and have had it myself (not skin), I don't use suntan lotion. I might be making a mistake. But I feel that some sun is good. I'll limit myself to maybe ten minutes or so and then duck into the shade or cover myself. Years ago I would lay out and burn. But no longer. But I feel a little but of everything is healthy in moderation. I also have a skin doctor look me over once a year and remove any pre-cancerous things he might find.
I've never worried about skin cancer, and I've never bothered to apply sun screen lotion, even when exposed to long periods of sunlight. However, I recall my mum used to frequently give me a spoon of cod-liver oil when I was young, and eggs and fish were a regular part of my diet, so maybe that has strengthened my immune system.
When now reading about the benefits and risks of sunlight exposure, as a result of coming across the claimed beneficial effects of Vitamin D on reducing Covid-19 infection, I can't help associating the uncertainty about the precise processes with the uncertainty about the climate change issue.
Climate change alarmists tend to ignore the beneficial effects of a warmer climate and the increased plant growth due to human CO2 emissions. They just concentrate on the bad effects.
This is analogous to skin cancer researchers advising everyone to stay out of the sun, or always apply sun screen lotion to block the UV rays in order to reduce the risk of skin cancer. They tend to ignore the beneficial effects of sun exposure.
My impression, after reading a few studies, is that the production of Vitamin D is only one of the benefits of sun exposure, although it's a major benefit. Therefore, Vitamin D supplements, and/or a diet which is high in Vitamin D will not necessarily fully compensate for lack of sun exposure.
The sun causes the body to produce many other 'photoproducts'. (No camera required ;D )
These photoproducts include 'Serotonin' which enhances mood and reduces depression, and Nitric Oxide which is a potent vasodilator which expands the arteries, increases blood flow, lowers blood pressure, reduces the risk of heart disease, and so on.
The following site delves into the various issues.
http://sunlightinstitute.org/tag/nitric-oxide/
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This is analogous to skin cancer researchers advising everyone to stay out of the sun, or always apply sun screen lotion to block the UV rays in order to reduce the risk of skin cancer. They tend to ignore the beneficial effects of sun exposure.
They probably never advised people to stay out of the sun entirely. There's a big step between getting a few minutes of sunshine and baking in the sun for hours. Lots of people who smoke never get lung cancer or COPB, that's not a contradiction of the anti-smoking advisory.
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They probably never advised people to stay out of the sun entirely. There's a big step between getting a few minutes of sunshine and baking in the sun for hours. Lots of people who smoke never get lung cancer or COPB, that's not a contradiction of the anti-smoking advisory.
The advice is to always apply sun screen lotion, which is designed to block the UV rays from the sun, which is equivalent to staying out of the sun. The most effective sun screen lotions will block out 95-98% of the UV rays.
The problem is, most of us live in an artificial environment in houses, offices, buildings such as cinemas and shopping centers, and transport vehicles. Our skin is rarely exposed to direct sunlight, so we become ultra-sensitive to UV rays on the few occasions when we holiday on the beach.
A few minutes of sun exposure each day, without sun screen lotion, is good advice, provided it's summer and you are near the equator. Away from the equator, and especially in winter, I'd recommend at least half an hour each day, around mid-day.
I should add that the time length of exposure is also related to the area of one's body that is exposed. Half an hour of full exposure in winter, wearing just a bathing costume, is probably appropriate. 15 minutes in summer might be sufficient, every day when the sun shines.
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This is a very informative article about how the virus spreads and how to minimize your risks.
https://www.erinbromage.com/post/the-risks-know-them-avoid-them
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This is a very informative article about how the virus spreads and how to minimize your risks.
On a related subject, a physician's approach to setting up a successful regime for safe interaction (https://www.newyorker.com/science/medical-dispatch/amid-the-coronavirus-crisis-a-regimen-for-reentry?utm_source=onsite-share&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=onsite-share&utm_brand=the-new-yorker), based on his experience in a hospital setting.
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I've never worried about skin cancer, and I've never bothered to apply sun screen lotion, even when exposed to long periods of sunlight. However, I recall my mum used to frequently give me a spoon of cod-liver oil when I was young, and eggs and fish were a regular part of my diet, so maybe that has strengthened my immune system.
You can count yourself among the lucky ones. I've had skin problems on and off since the age of 25 when I first started getting sun exposure patches that required liquid nitrogen freezing. I grew up on the beaches of Southern California in the days before sunscreen and have paid the price ever since. I had the same kind of diet you did growing up but that doesn't mean much. What works for you, works for you and that's about all one can say.
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Required reading for those who are doubtful about the utility of wearing a mask.
https://www.vanityfair.com/news/2020/05/masks-covid-19-infections-would-plummet-new-study-says
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Nicholas Kristoff has an interesting statistics-based column in the NYT that says the US has already had around 110,000 deaths from the corona virus. He also notes that there is a fairly large number of people who didn't die from a decline in traffic accidents, crime, etc.
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Nicholas Kristoff has an interesting statistics-based column in the NYT that says the US has already had around 110,000 deaths from the corona virus. He also notes that there is a fairly large number of people who didn't die from a decline in traffic accidents, crime, etc.
NYC had 68 day run of no pedestrian deaths. Considering NYC is the jaywalking capital of the world, that's pretty good.
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I had the same kind of diet you did growing up but that doesn't mean much. What works for you, works for you and that's about all one can say.
I wonder if you really did have the same kind of diet, apart from fish and eggs. I was also given lots of fresh vegetables. I recall my mother once beating me with a wooden spoon because I refused to eat the spinach on my plate, because I didn't like the taste of spinach. ;D
White bread was banned from my household. Wholemeal bread, Kellogg's All Bran, Wheat Germ, Full-Cream milk, pure cream, cheese, yoghurt, and of course, unrefined raw cane sugar, were among the staple foods when I was young.
Now in my 70's, my diet is pretty much the same. I always insist on full-cream milk and I still have a mixture of Kellogg's All Bran, Wheat Germ, Whole Grain Oats, and fresh fruit for breakfast.
I eat in moderation. I don't avoid or worry about natural fats, and I'm not overweight. However, I also exercise regularly, taking a long walk on most days and sometimes do intermittent jogging for brief moments up a steep hill, to get myself breathing really heavily. ;)
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This should perhaps go in the humour section, but it's a serious thing, and shows how stupid and cruel the government and city officials can be. It happened in Switzerland, but it could happen also in other countries. According to the Covid-19 regulation, couples and families when outside must also keep a distance of two meters in public.
Neue Zuercher Zeitung, May 15:
A young woman from Zurich has been fined by the city police for violating the distance rules, even though she and her partner have lived in the same household for one and a half years. She lodged an appeal against the city police.
A few days ago, she received a negative decision: You and her partner must pay the fine of CHF 100 each. "The requirement for the minimum distance between people in the public space must also be met by larger families or household groups," it says in the letter that is available to the NZZ. The woman works as a lawyer in the financial sector and has been living in Zurich for a good decade.
https://www.nzz.ch/zuerich/coronavirus-polizei-buesst-paar-weil-sie-abstand-nicht-einhalten-ld.1556203
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Here's a question for Alan G. Why is it that every year we get the seasonal flu vaccine that's different than the year before. Apparently, the flu strain changes year to year. But do we test it teh vaccine? How is it developed and made effecable so quickly? We don;t need 12-18 months. Why can't we do something similar with Covid 19?
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Here's a question for Alan G. Why is it that every year we get the seasonal flu vaccine that's different than the year before. Apparently, the flu strain changes year to year. But do we test it teh vaccine? How is it developed and made effecable so quickly? We don;t need 12-18 months. Why can't we do something similar with Covid 19?
I may have posted this before, a good description of how vaccines are developed, good info to know, under an hour long, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5cYWd0N8nO4 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5cYWd0N8nO4). And no, I can't summarize it in a paragraph or two for you.
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I'll wait for Alan G's answer. Thanks. :)
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I'll wait for Alan G's answer. Thanks. :)
The explanation that you want about the new yearly flu vaccine is discussed starting a minute 31 of that video I gave in the earlier post.
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The explanation that you want about the new yearly flu vaccine is discussed starting a minute 31 of that video I gave in the earlier post.
That was helpful. Thanks Rob. Regular flu doesn't vary year to year that much. So the approving agencies don't require the same testing regimen. As an aside, I recall reading that the flu vaccine reduces death and cases 10% and 20%. Rather minor amounts which surprised me. I may have those numbers reversed.
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Here's a question for Alan G. Why is it that every year we get the seasonal flu vaccine that's different than the year before. Apparently, the flu strain changes year to year. But do we test it teh vaccine? How is it developed and made effecable so quickly? We don;t need 12-18 months. Why can't we do something similar with Covid 19?
The influenza virus mutates every year. Scientists evaluate the strains that are prevalent in January and make a decision about which are important to include in the vaccine strain for production. Flu vaccine is produced in fertilized eggs (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/prevent/how-fluvaccine-made.htm) and a lot of them!!!! It is a slow process and one that has been used for many years. They don't do clinical trials on the vaccine but rely on the manufacturing process. There have been some attempts to use more modern technologies but these have been slow to develop.
We cannot do this for COVID-19 as it's not clear that the virus can be produced in the same manner as with flu vaccine. We also have no idea how potent the COVID-19 vaccine will be in terms of providing protection or anything about the safety. The troubling outbreak of Kawasaki Disease in young people and that this might be an autoimmune response. this will be a red flag with a vaccine that might cause the same syndrome. All new vaccines are extensively tested for safety in 50-70,000 people. If they hope to launch a COVID-19 vaccine by January this step will not be done.
To put this in context, the mumps vaccine had the shortest development time of any approved vaccine at just under four years.
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That was helpful. Thanks Rob. Regular flu doesn't vary year to year that much. So the approving agencies don't require the same testing regimen. As an aside, I recall reading that the flu vaccine reduces death and cases 10% and 20%. Rather minor amounts which surprised me. I may have those numbers reversed.
Regular flu can vary a lot and cause big problems as was seen in 1957 and 1968. Each year had epidemics. If they guess right about the flu strains to be used in the vaccine, the protective rate is higher than you write.
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Very educational. Thanks Alan.
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Just a quick report from Portugal. After the first 2 weeks of slow and phased reopening, the indications are positive in terms of the infection rates, with Rt ~0.96. We are having about 200 new cases every day, which is similar to the last days before reopening. Number of deaths has been decreasing, so has number of patients in hospitals and ICUs.
Today we are reopening pre-schools (children up to 3 years old), shops up to 400m2, and restaurants (at 50% capacity), all with strict rules to mitigate risk as much as possible. Classes have also restarted in schools for students who are in the secondary grade and need to take exams for the university.
Next milestone: beach reopening 6th June, again with several measures in place, to limit the amount of people.
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Interesting complication in testing for infectiousness.
Recovered COVID-19 patients test positive but not infectious
“Re-positive” cases didn't spread disease or shed virus.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/05/feared-reactivation-of-covid-19-infections-disputed-by-new-data/
People who recover from COVID-19 but test positive for the virus again days or weeks later are not shedding viral particles and are not infectious, according to data released Tuesday by the Korea Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The so-called “re-positive” cases have raised fears that an infection with the new coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2, could “reactivate” in recovered patients or that recovering from the infection may fail to produce even short-lived immunity, allowing patients to immediately become re-infected if they are exposed.
The new data from Korea should ease those concerns.
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Interesting complication in testing for infectiousness.
Recovered COVID-19 patients test positive but not infectious
“Re-positive” cases didn't spread disease or shed virus.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/05/feared-reactivation-of-covid-19-infections-disputed-by-new-data/
My 70 year old friend who recovered from it will be glad to hear that he can't infect his wife who's coming home soon from Thailand where she's been with their daughter for many months. However, it also appears that a previously infected person can still suffer again from symptoms although not as bad. Thanks.
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Interesting complication in testing for infectiousness.
Recovered COVID-19 patients test positive but not infectious
“Re-positive” cases didn't spread disease or shed virus.
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/05/feared-reactivation-of-covid-19-infections-disputed-by-new-data/
The jury is still out, I want to see why this is happening (seems a combo of what is tested and some form of milder reactivation?) and the clinical evolution.
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The Lancet published the largest observational data set for hydroxychloroquine: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31180-6/fulltext covering a lot of hospitals in six countries. Take away quote: We were unable to confirm a benefit of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine, when used alone or with a macrolide, on in-hospital outcomes for COVID-19. Each of these drug regimens was associated with decreased in-hospital survival and an increased frequency of ventricular arrhythmias when used for treatment of COVID-19.
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The Lancet published the largest observational data set for hydroxychloroquine: https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31180-6/fulltext covering a lot of hospitals in six countries. Take away quote: We were unable to confirm a benefit of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine, when used alone or with a macrolide, on in-hospital outcomes for COVID-19. Each of these drug regimens was associated with decreased in-hospital survival and an increased frequency of ventricular arrhythmias when used for treatment of COVID-19.
I found this to be a bit more of a money quote, but thats just me.
"Our study has several limitations. The association of decreased survival with hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine treatment regimens should be interpreted cautiously. Due to the observational study design, we cannot exclude the possibility of unmeasured confounding factors, although we have reassuringly noted consistency between the primary analysis and the propensity score matched analyses."
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I found this to be a bit more of a money quote, but thats just me.
"Our study has several limitations. The association of decreased survival with hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine treatment regimens should be interpreted cautiously. Due to the observational study design, we cannot exclude the possibility of unmeasured confounding factors, although we have reassuringly noted consistency between the primary analysis and the propensity score matched analyses."
And 90% of the positive HCQ papers I have read suffer from this problem and even worse, they don't have anywhere near the number of patients in the analysis. Anyone is free to believe in magical thinking but if it puts one's life in peril, that's not the approach to take. There is no question that HCQ and espcially with azithromycin is dangerous at a non-negligible level. Anyone taking the drug should be monitored by a doctor for arrhythmia before starting therapy.
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And 90% of the positive HCQ papers I have read suffer from this problem and even worse, they don't have anywhere near the number of patients in the analysis. Anyone is free to believe in magical thinking but if it puts one's life in peril, that's not the approach to take. There is no question that HCQ and espcially with azithromycin is dangerous at a non-negligible level. Anyone taking the drug should be monitored by a doctor for arrhythmia before starting therapy.
The president has a personal doctor who's with him all the time. Me? I can't even get hold of my cardiologist. He doesn't answer my phone calls.
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And 90% of the positive HCQ papers I have read suffer from this problem and even worse, they don't have anywhere near the number of patients in the analysis. Anyone is free to believe in magical thinking but if it puts one's life in peril, that's not the approach to take. There is no question that HCQ and espcially with azithromycin is dangerous at a non-negligible level. Anyone taking the drug should be monitored by a doctor for arrhythmia before starting therapy.
Of course thats the point. And its between a DR and the patient. Its not for everyone and for some it works or at least appears to do so. Having taken a few different meds in my time on earth and looking at the very long list of side effects for many of these drugs, it appears this is not uncommon, at least to a layman. I've had to quit taking some of the products due to those side effects. So this is different how? Especially since this drug has been used for what, 65 years?
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Of course thats the point. And its between a DR and the patient. Its not for everyone and for some it works or at least appears to do so. Having taken a few different meds in my time on earth and looking at the very long list of side effects for many of these drugs, it appears this is not uncommon, at least to a layman. I've had to quit taking some of the products due to those side effects. So this is different how? Especially since this drug has been used for what, 65 years?
Use was declining for years as it became less effective for treating malaria. In the US, about the only people taking it were those suffering from lupus and rheumatoid arthritis. When our daughter went to Ghana for the summer back in 2007 she took Malarone. Hydroxychloroquine is problematic because of the very long half life in the body (24 days when most drug half lives are measured in hours). The cardiotoxicty of the drug has been well known for a long time.
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Of course thats the point. And its between a DR and the patient. Its not for everyone and for some it works or at least appears to do so. Having taken a few different meds in my time on earth and looking at the very long list of side effects for many of these drugs, it appears this is not uncommon, at least to a layman. I've had to quit taking some of the products due to those side effects. So this is different how? Especially since this drug has been used for what, 65 years?
Where's the proof it works?
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Where's the proof it works?
Ask the users. Lots of people have taken it and say it helps.
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Use was declining for years as it became less effective for treating malaria. In the US, about the only people taking it were those suffering from lupus and rheumatoid arthritis. When our daughter went to Ghana for the summer back in 2007 she took Malarone. Hydroxychloroquine is problematic because of the very long half life in the body (24 days when most drug half lives are measured in hours). The cardiotoxicty of the drug has been well known for a long time.
Still it’s a medication that both Drs and patients find valuable. Side effects are part of taking meds. You weight those when you decide to try a drug. There is really no difference here.
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Ask the users. Lots of people have taken it and say it helps.
Helps what, how? You do realize the vast majority who have Covid recover. So how can you tell if the drug helped or you just recovered. Without an actual trial...which there was one now and showed it did diddly squat.
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Ask the users. Lots of people have taken it and say it helps.
I take a multi-vitamin and didn't contract COVID-19, so that's what I recommend. And, you don't need a prescription.
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Helps what, how? You do realize the vast majority who have Covid recover. So how can you tell if the drug helped or you just recovered. Without an actual trial...which there was one now and showed it did diddly squat.
First, you are incorrect , if you are referring to the work linked by Alan G, that it is not a trial , but rather a data mined analysis. In fact the work states that an actual trial will be required. There is no real dispute the drug(s) can cause serious hearth problems in those with other conditions As Alan G stated the heart issues are not a new issue with this drug. So some believe it has helped, others not.
But I guess the real issue is why the heck do you even care? This is an issue between a Dr and the patient. If they both agree it a course of action that they want to try, why should you care? It’s really none of your concern.
As the pro choice folks like to say, my body, my choice. And until ( or if) a fully effective treatment is found, this people and their Dr’s are making personal choices, and again is none of your business what the do.
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I take a multi-vitamin and didn't contract COVID-19, so that's what I recommend. And, you don't need a prescription.
Vitamin D ....
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The people still need to get a Dr to prescribe the drug. Lots of people are taking it and bragging that it helped them. Who the heck are you to tell them they are wrong? The answer, you are nobody. But given that this is a personal decision and there is nothing better available at this time, "because people say so" is perfectly reasonable.
Oh and by BTW, was there really a spike in "poisoning" or was it just a spike in calls asking about it? Why don't you find out the truth and post the real answer for a change. And was there a suggestion to ingest bleach or is that just more propaganda?
Enough said to you, here. You want to agrue you have it right, I'll be in the ohter thread.
So someone heard something from another person that saw something on Facebook that they took I the drug and didn't die. Good to know...you lining up at your doctor's office to get a prescription. After all if the Commander idiot takes it...it must be great.
So no real evidence...just like I though...full of it.
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I thought Playpen was the place to be, is it getting too little action there?
There is no good evidence the hydroxychloroquine is helpful. In medicine there is a clear principle, first do no harm. If there is no proven benefit, you don't give drug, outside of clinical trials and compassionate use. The only time you could try is for very high mortality and no treatment, if there is some sound reasoning why it could work. Currently, in ICUs, where theoretically the benefit could outweigh the risk given the much higher mortality, it's not being recommended.
For outpatients it makes even less sense:
- first, not everybody will get it
- second, a majority will get better without treatment so the drug should have a very good safety profile, not to mention very good clinical effect
That Trump and his physician decided to go for it it's not standard of care right now.
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I thought Playpen was the place to be, is it getting too little action there?
Some of us hoped to confine the petty squabbles and uninformed argumentation to that thread, but I fear that ship has sailed.
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Looking at the Worldometer stats, it seems that for the top ten countries the number of infections and deaths is declining (except Brazil which leapfrogged to number 2 position, and there was also a spike for Spain).
I wonder whether the lower numbers reflect the actual situation or if the people reporting these counts are getting tired. Especially China which pretty much stopped their reporting.
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Looking at the Worldometer stats, it seems that for the top ten countries the number of infections and deaths is declining (except Brazil which leapfrogged to number 2 position, and there was also a spike for Spain).
I wonder whether the lower numbers reflect the actual situation or if the people reporting these counts are getting tired. Especially China which pretty much stopped their reporting.
Let's hope it's dying out and won't come back.
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Let's hope it's dying out and won't come back.
It's a globally present virus, it's very effective in spreading, it will be back. Therefore, we should (and can) be prepared next time around.
Until then, we need to cope with what we think we understand about it now.
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Let's hope it's dying out and won't come back.
In this case, the hope and prayers won't help. Only a good science.
To paraphrase Winston Churchill who said “I have nothing to offer but blood, toil, tears and sweat”, a good leader would say that he can offer only tears, cough, isolation and sweat under the mask.
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Well, let's hope that we come up with an effective vaccine and shot that will kill it if you get it. Sitting at home is getting old.
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A large observational study published in the lancet shows no effect of chloroquine on the virus but a definite increase in deaths from cardiac issues.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31180-6/fulltext
Too bad.
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A large observational study published in the lancet shows no effect of chloroquine on the virus but a definite increase in deaths from cardiac issues.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)31180-6/fulltext
Too bad.
That seems like a serious, large volume study. You can't argue with the facts and well documented observations.
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That seems like a serious, large volume study. You can't argue with the facts and well documented observations.
You must not have been following the discussion in the other thread.
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I thought Playpen was the place to be
For politics, you are right. I have deleted some posts and banned some people for 7 days.
Some of us hoped to confine the petty squabbles and uninformed argumentation to that thread, but I fear that ship has sailed.
It hasn't.
Jeremy
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That seems like a serious, large volume study. You can't argue with the facts and well documented observations.
Wanna bet? I shall say no more.
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Wanna bet? I shall say no more.
What do you mean? It might help to say more.
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The latest Imperial College report (https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/mrc-gida/2020-05-21-COVID19-Report-23.pdf), published last week, assesses the course of the pandemic in the United States on a state-by-state level.
Nationally, our estimates show that the percentage of individuals that have been infected is 4.1% [3.7%-4.5%], with wide variation between states. For all states, even for the worst affected states, we estimate that less than a quarter of the population has been infected; in New York, for example, we estimate that 16.6% [12.8%-21.6%] of individuals have been infected to date. Our attack rates for New York are in line with those from recent serological studies [1] broadly supporting our modelling choices.
The researchers estimated that no state had achieved a level of infection and recovery which would indicate it was approaching a condition of "herd immunity."
Our estimates suggest that the epidemic is not under control in much of the US: as of 17 May 2020, the reproduction number is above the critical threshold (1.0) in 24 [95% CI: 20-30] states. Higher reproduction numbers are geographically clustered in the South and Midwest, where epidemics are still developing, while we estimate lower reproduction numbers in states that have already suffered high COVID-19 mortality (such as the Northeast). These estimates suggest that caution must be taken in loosening current restrictions if effective additional measures are not put in place.
Unsurprisingly, the researchers "predict that increased mobility following relaxation of social distancing will lead to resurgence of transmission, keeping all else constant. We predict that deaths over the next two-month period could exceed current cumulative deaths by greater than two-fold, if the relationship between mobility and transmission remains unchanged."
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The decreased air pollution makes it now possible to see and photograph Mount Everest. From a 160km distance.
With air pollution levels down during the pandemic, Kathmandu photographer Abhushan Gautam captured a sight that has been shrouded in the city's smog for nearly 50 years — a clear view of Mount Everest. Gautam and his neighbours in Kathmandu Valley live on the doorstep of the famous mountain range. But until now, it was extremely rare to catch a glimpse of Mount Everest and its sister peaks.
"This photo is symbolic," Gautam told As It Happens host Carol Off. "If we do our actions right, then things can be mended, and we can actually see Everest from our own backyard." Gautam says the mountain is occasionally visible from the outer city limits when the weather is clear. But it hasn't been documented in Kathmandu Valley for decades.
(https://i.cbc.ca/1.5580755.1590169663!/fileImage/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/16x9_780/mount-everest-view-from-kathmandu-valley.jpg)
(https://i.cbc.ca/1.5580759.1590177966!/fileImage/httpImage/image.jpg_gen/derivatives/original_1180/mount-everest-view-from-kathmandu-valley-alternate.jpg)
https://www.cbc.ca/radio/asithappens/as-it-happens-friday-edition-1.5580594/mount-everest-emerges-as-pandemic-lifts-veil-of-smog-from-kathmandu-valley-1.5580607
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Ask the users. Lots of people have taken it and say it helps.
Anecdotal data is close to useless in terms of drug therapy. To cite but one example, when laetrile was being touted for cancer therapy there were lots of anecdotal reports that it worked. US patients were traveling to Mexican clinics in search of a cure. It didn't work. That the President of the United States says he has heard a lot of good things about HCQ is a meaningless statement of obvious falsity.
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Anecdotal data is close to useless in terms of drug therapy. To cite but one example, when laetrile was being touted for cancer therapy there were lots of anecdotal reports that it worked. US patients were traveling to Mexican clinics in search of a cure. It didn't work. That the President of the United States says he has heard a lot of good things about HCQ is a meaningless statement of obvious falsity.
And besides the political angle (which is off-limits here), this article (and the report it mentions) sheds some more recent peer-reviewed light on the anecdotal evidence that's referred to:
Hydroxychloroquine linked to increase in COVID-19 deaths, heart risks
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/05/hydroxychloroquine-linked-to-increase-in-covid-19-deaths-heart-risks/
Two closely related anti-malarial drugs championed by President Donald Trump as promising treatments for COVID-19 appear to substantially increase the risks of death and heart complications in patients hospitalized from the disease.
That’s according to the largest study yet on the topic, which involved more than 96,000 hospitalized COVID-19 patients on six continents. The peer-reviewed study, appearing Friday in The Lancet, was led by Mandeep Mehra, a professor of medicine at Harvard.
[...]
The researchers primarily looked at risks of in-hospital deaths and serious heart arrhythmias.
Comparing the treatment groups to controls and adjusting each patient’s risk factors, such as congestive heart failure, the researchers found the following:
COVID-19 patients given hydroxychloroquine alone had a 34-percent increased risk of dying in the hospital and a 137-percent increased risk of developing a serious arrhythmia.
Those given hydroxychloroquine with a macrolide had a 45-percent increased risk of dying in the hospital and a 411-percent increased risk of developing a serious arrhythmia.
Those given chloroquine had a 37-percent increased risk of dying in the hospital and a 256-percent increased risk of developing a serious arrhythmia.
Those given chloroquine and a macrolide had a 37-percent increased risk of dying in the hospital and a 301-percent increased risk of developing a serious arrhythmia.
Mehra and colleagues conclude:
"In this large multinational real-world analysis, we did not observe any benefit of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine (when used alone or in combination with a macrolide) on in-hospital outcomes, when initiated early after diagnosis of COVID-19. Each of the drug regimens of chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine alone or in combination with a macrolide was associated with an increased hazard for clinically significant occurrence of ventricular arrhythmias and increased risk of in-hospital death with COVID-19".
The study has some significant limitations, including that it is merely an observational study—not a randomized, controlled trial thought of as a gold standard for assessing treatments. As an observational study, it cannot prove cause and effect; it only reveals associations with the treatments. Randomized trials—several of which are currently underway—are still needed to definitely determine risks and benefits of the drug.
As mentioned in the article, this type of observational study has its limitations (i.e. correlation doesn't necessarily imply causation), but more studies are being conducted to clarify cause and effect. However, the correlation is alarming. Given that, its unlikely that many tests will be done before patients contracted the virus.
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Anecdotal data is close to useless in terms of drug therapy. To cite but one example, when laetrile was being touted for cancer therapy there were lots of anecdotal reports that it worked. US patients were traveling to Mexican clinics in search of a cure. It didn't work. That the President of the United States says he has heard a lot of good things about HCQ is a meaningless statement of obvious falsity.
Lack of efficacy aside, what would the thinking behind taking the drug as a preventative measure in the first place? Is it analogous to the giving of anti-biotics to livestock?
Under normal circumstances, is it prescribed as a preventative for malaria or something that is prescribed once you have caught malaria? I am trying to understand if there would be any point taking it if you're not already infected.
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Lack of efficacy aside, what would the thinking behind taking the drug as a preventative measure in the first place? Is it analogous to the giving of anti-biotics to livestock?
Under normal circumstances, is it prescribed as a preventative for malaria or something that is prescribed once you have caught malaria? I am trying to understand if there would be any point taking it if you're not already infected.
There's a distinction to be made between prevention and cure. Most people who die from Covid-19 infection have other conditions, such as heart disease and obesity, so administering Hydroxychloroquine to such patient who already have serious medical conditions might not serve any purpose and might even have negative consequences.
However, Hydroxychloroquine in combination with Zinc and Vitamin C and D supplements might have a prophylactic effect in preventing the development of Covid-19 in otherwise healthy people.
From the following article, it appears that Hydroxychloroquine helps the Zinc get inside the cells which are infected with the virus. It's the Zinc which destroys the virus.
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200409/chloroquine-zinc-tested-to-block-covid-infection
"Mahir Ozmen, a professor of surgery at the Istinye University, School of Medicine in Istanbul, Turkey, says he thinks the best way to use chloroquine is in combination with zinc and vitamins C and D. He is running a clinical trial, testing to see whether this combination protects health care workers and their immediate families – including his own.
Hydroxychloroquine, he says, helps the zinc get inside the infected cells to destroy the virus, and vitamins C and D support immune function."
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04326725
"This study provides the first in vivo evidence that zinc sulfate in combination with hydroxychloroquine may play a role in therapeutic management for COVID-19."
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There's a distinction to be made between prevention and cure. Most people who die from Covid-19 infection have other conditions, such as heart disease and obesity, so administering Hydroxychloroquine to such patient who already have serious medical conditions might not serve any purpose and might even have negative consequences.
However, Hydroxychloroquine in combination with Zinc and Vitamin C and D supplements might have a prophylactic effect in preventing the development of Covid-19 in otherwise healthy people.
From the following article, it appears that Hydroxychloroquine helps the Zinc get inside the cells which are infected with the virus. It's the Zinc which destroys the virus.
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200409/chloroquine-zinc-tested-to-block-covid-infection
"Mahir Ozmen, a professor of surgery at the Istinye University, School of Medicine in Istanbul, Turkey, says he thinks the best way to use chloroquine is in combination with zinc and vitamins C and D. He is running a clinical trial, testing to see whether this combination protects health care workers and their immediate families – including his own.
Hydroxychloroquine, he says, helps the zinc get inside the infected cells to destroy the virus, and vitamins C and D support immune function."
https://clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT04326725
"This study provides the first in vivo evidence that zinc sulfate in combination with hydroxychloroquine may play a role in therapeutic management for COVID-19."
Quite frankly this is a lot of BS from people who suffer from confirmation bias and are grasping at straws. Nobody has every come up with a plausible mechanism for how HCQ works for COVID-19 other than affecting the lysosomal pH. It does not inhibit any of the key enzymes responsible for COVID-19 production. The ionophoric activity of HCQ mechanism for getting zinc into cells is pure poppycock as well. It has no ability to do this at all. There are more loony clinical trials going on than I can count. I suspect that the anti-psychotic, chlorpromazine is just as effective as HCQ as it has in vitro activity against the virus at a lower concentration than HCQ. So many clinical trial resources have been wasted chasing down the HCQ rabbit hole that other compounds that actually might work are being neglected. I address all of this in a paper on my COVID-19 Website (https://agoldhammer.com/covid_19/) where you also have free access to my daily emails that will separate out the truth from the hype.
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Quite frankly this is a lot of BS from people who suffer from confirmation bias and are grasping at straws. Nobody has every come up with a plausible mechanism for how HCQ works for COVID-19 other than affecting the lysosomal pH. It does not inhibit any of the key enzymes responsible for COVID-19 production. The ionophoric activity of HCQ mechanism for getting zinc into cells is pure poppycock as well. It has no ability to do this at all. There are more loony clinical trials going on than I can count. I suspect that the anti-psychotic, chlorpromazine is just as effective as HCQ as it has in vitro activity against the virus at a lower concentration than HCQ. So many clinical trial resources have been wasted chasing down the HCQ rabbit hole that other compounds that actually might work are being neglected. I address all of this in a paper on my COVID-19 Website (https://agoldhammer.com/covid_19/) where you also have free access to my daily emails that will separate out the truth from the hype.
Currently there is no drug available to treat or prevent Covid-19. So they tried HCQ and if its a failure, so be it. People were and are dying of Covid and without a validated treatment, "grasping for straws" seems perfectly reasonable. You have a problem with that? How many other drugs are also a "rabbit hole"? Is trying them also "grasping at straws?
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Currently there is no drug available to treat or prevent Covid-19. So they tried HCQ and if its a failure, so be it. People were and are dying of Covid and without a validated treatment, "grasping for straws" seems perfectly reasonable. You have a problem with that? How many other drugs are also a "rabbit hole"? Is trying them also "grasping at straws?
I have a problem with the random prescribing of drugs in the absence of evidence and in particular a drug such as HCQ that can cause fatal arrhythmia. I seriously doubt that all the doctors who have been prescribing this drug to their patients in the community even did an EKG prior to prescribing to see if their patient might be in potential danger. The drug hangs around in the body for 24 days when most drugs are cleared from the body in a day or maybe two at the most. What is the weight of evidence to use in "straw grasping." I can give you a list of 100 drugs that have been identified in one study or another as potential treatments for COVID-19. I'm taking one right now for allergies. Do I think it is protecting me from the virus? Absolutely not.
We know that behavior modification is the best way to protect yourself. Social distancing, wear a mask, and wash hands frequently. You don't have to be gripped by paralysis. I'm 72 and maybe in the 'risk' category. I go to the store twice a week and regularly get outside. We have had friends over for conversation in our yard, making sure to keep our distance. Is all this inconvenient, of course.
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I have a problem with the random prescribing of drugs in the absence of evidence and in particular a drug such as HCQ that can cause fatal arrhythmia. I seriously doubt that all the doctors who have been prescribing this drug to their patients in the community even did an EKG prior to prescribing to see if their patient might be in potential danger. The drug hangs around in the body for 24 days when most drugs are cleared from the body in a day or maybe two at the most. What is the weight of evidence to use in "straw grasping." I can give you a list of 100 drugs that have been identified in one study or another as potential treatments for COVID-19. I'm taking one right now for allergies. Do I think it is protecting me from the virus? Absolutely not.
We know that behavior modification is the best way to protect yourself. Social distancing, wear a mask, and wash hands frequently. You don't have to be gripped by paralysis. I'm 72 and maybe in the 'risk' category. I go to the store twice a week and regularly get outside. We have had friends over for conversation in our yard, making sure to keep our distance. Is all this inconvenient, of course.
Indeed, and many countries are already cautiously opening up their economic activities, after they got back enough control over the spreading of the virus.
So, it's not a question of either/or, but rather a question of both locking down where needed and opening up where possible.
Common sense really, based on informed choices. But that's a known MO in this thread.
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I've been looking at numbers, and it seems to me that the virus spread is beginning to do what you'd expect -- the most virus cases in the states with the most population, irrespective of politics. The top ten states with the most virus (according to the Worldometer) include seven with the highest populations. (California, Texas, Florida, New York, Pennsylvania, Illinois and Michigan.) The biggest anomaly comes, as you'd expect, in the Northeast, which probably derives from the flood of people coming back to the US from Europe when the travel ban was announced but before it went into effect -- and since the transfer largely took place in the northeast (NY, NJ, Boston) those areas got hit the hardest. New Jersey is one of the hardest hit states, and is 11th in population, so didn't make my top-ten cutoff. Massachusetts, which is also part of that Northeastern "megaplex" is also in the top ten by infections, though it is 14th in population (and has Logan International, one of the biggest entrepots in the US.) But, it appears to me that the caseload is beginning to spread out, with viral reports aligning with population. Another interesting thing I guess you'd expect, is that university towns have a lot of virus, because people involved with universities tend to travel a lot, and also tend to be penned up together in apartments and dormitories.
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I have a problem with the random prescribing of drugs in the absence of evidence and in particular a drug such as HCQ that can cause fatal arrhythmia. I seriously doubt that all the doctors who have been prescribing this drug to their patients in the community even did an EKG prior to prescribing to see if their patient might be in potential danger. The drug hangs around in the body for 24 days when most drugs are cleared from the body in a day or maybe two at the most. What is the weight of evidence to use in "straw grasping." I can give you a list of 100 drugs that have been identified in one study or another as potential treatments for COVID-19. I'm taking one right now for allergies. Do I think it is protecting me from the virus? Absolutely not.
We know that behavior modification is the best way to protect yourself. Social distancing, wear a mask, and wash hands frequently. You don't have to be gripped by paralysis. I'm 72 and maybe in the 'risk' category. I go to the store twice a week and regularly get outside. We have had friends over for conversation in our yard, making sure to keep our distance. Is all this inconvenient, of course.
If you are dying, I guess its a gamble some are willing to take. Only you or your loved ones can decide that. If someting better comes along and its not passed a trial I would say the same thing.
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Quite frankly this is a lot of BS from people who suffer from confirmation bias and are grasping at straws. Nobody has every come up with a plausible mechanism for how HCQ works for COVID-19 other than affecting the lysosomal pH. It does not inhibit any of the key enzymes responsible for COVID-19 production. The ionophoric activity of HCQ mechanism for getting zinc into cells is pure poppycock as well. It has no ability to do this at all. There are more loony clinical trials going on than I can count. I suspect that the anti-psychotic, chlorpromazine is just as effective as HCQ as it has in vitro activity against the virus at a lower concentration than HCQ. So many clinical trial resources have been wasted chasing down the HCQ rabbit hole that other compounds that actually might work are being neglected. I address all of this in a paper on my COVID-19 Website (https://agoldhammer.com/covid_19/) where you also have free access to my daily emails that will separate out the truth from the hype.
Alan,
As far as I can see, searching the internet, there are a number of trials underway to test the prophylactic effect of Chloroquine or Hydroxychloroquine in combination with Zinc supplements. However, the jury is still out because these trials have not been completed. It takes more time to determine with certainty if a drug or supplement has a prophylactic effect than it does to determine if it has a cure. For obvious ethical reasons one can't organize two groups of people with similarly good health, give one group Hydroxychloroquine, then inject both groups with the Covid-19 virus to see which group does better. Also, it does not follow that a treatment which is a prophylaxis is also a cure.
However, since it has been determined that Chloroquine and Hydroxychloroquine can have serious side-effects for people with certain types of pre-existing medical conditions, then obviously that should be taken into consideration.
The following video explains the process of how the Covid virus enters a human cell and replicates, beginning at 2.35 minutes into the video. From 5.45 minutes, the role of zinc and Chloroquine is explained. Would you care to point out the flaws and BS in this video, Alan, since you are so knowledgeable on such matters?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BIymfznD7YA
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Latest pandemic planning models from US CDC fwiw -
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/planning-scenarios.html
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Update from Portugal, now on week #3 of reopening:
1. Weekly average of around 250 new cases per day. Of these, the majority arecoming from the greater Lisbon area, particularly from industrial centres - wherehouses and logistical distribution platforms for some companies. In spite of all the precautions, we recently had about 100 positive cases in a population of 400 workers. These things were expected, really.
2. The north of the country, the region that was most severely hit during the initial phase of the pandemics in early March (lots of industries and companies were not closed, as it is the heart of our economy) is now doing very well.
3. This last weekend the temperature has gone up, and beaches had lots of people, we shall see the repercussions ina couple of weeks in terms of cases. From the stats, the new cases are mostly young people, so the number of internships and ICUs has been decreasing which is good news.
Comparing with ohter countries that have more or less the same population (Austria, Sweden, Belgium), we are better than Sweden and Belgium, but worse compared to Austria. Per capita, Belgium looks really bad in number of dead. Sweden chose a different tactic, but in the end, they have about 3x the dead of similar countries, and their economy will suffer as badly. Austria seems to be doing well.
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Update from Portugal, now on week #3 of reopening:
1. Weekly average of around 250 new cases per day. Of these, the majority arecoming from the greater Lisbon area, particularly from industrial centres - wherehouses and logistical distribution platforms for some companies. In spite of all the precautions, we recently had about 100 positive cases in a population of 400 workers. These things were expected, really.
2. The north of the country, the region that was most severely hit during the initial phase of the pandemics in early March (lots of industries and companies were not closed, as it is the heart of our economy) is now doing very well.
3. This last weekend the temperature has gone up, and beaches had lots of people, we shall see the repercussions ina couple of weeks in terms of cases. From the stats, the new cases are mostly young people, so the number of internships and ICUs has been decreasing which is good news.
Comparing with ohter countries that have more or less the same population (Austria, Sweden, Belgium), we are better than Sweden and Belgium, but worse compared to Austria. Per capita, Belgium looks really bad in number of dead. Sweden chose a different tactic, but in the end, they have about 3x the dead of similar countries, and their economy will suffer as badly. Austria seems to be doing well.
Yes, it's a mixed bag. However, one word of caution with comparing between countries. National statistics use different input and sources. I was wondering about the high Belgian numbers as well, but it has been explained that they also include e.g. cases in nursing homes, whereas other countries only report those in hospitals.
The Dutch economy is also gradually opening up, in a step by step fashion, now that the cumulative curves are flattening and the number of ICU patients is steadily declining.
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I was wondering about the high Belgian numbers as well, but it has been explained that they also include e.g. cases in nursing homes, whereas other countries only report those in hospitals.
Bart,
It seems that Sweden also reports Covid deaths in nursing homes and aged care facilities. I've seen reports that about 50% of all Covid related deaths, in both Belgium and Sweden, have occurred in Care Homes.
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Yes, it's a mixed bag. However, one word of caution with comparing between countries. National statistics use different input and sources. I was wondering about the high Belgian numbers as well, but it has been explained that they also include e.g. cases in nursing homes, whereas other countries only report those in hospitals.
The Dutch economy is also gradually opening up, in a step by step fashion, now that the cumulative curves are flattening and the number of ICU patients is steadily declining.
In Portugal we also count cases from outiside of hospitals, like the nursing homes you mention.
Hope everything improves from now on. The WHO mentioned today that in their scenario analysis, a strong second wave has low probability of happening.
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Bart,
It seems that Sweden also reports Covid deaths in nursing homes and aged care facilities. I've seen reports that about 50% of all Covid related deaths, in both Belgium and Sweden, have occurred in Care Homes.
Yes, same thing in Portugal. A lot of deaths in nursing homes.
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Alan,
As far as I can see, searching the internet, there are a number of trials underway to test the prophylactic effect of Chloroquine or Hydroxychloroquine in combination with Zinc supplements. However, the jury is still out because these trials have not been completed. It takes more time to determine with certainty if a drug or supplement has a prophylactic effect than it does to determine if it has a cure. For obvious ethical reasons one can't organize two groups of people with similarly good health, give one group Hydroxychloroquine, then inject both groups with the Covid-19 virus to see which group does better. Also, it does not follow that a treatment which is a prophylaxis is also a cure.
However, since it has been determined that Chloroquine and Hydroxychloroquine can have serious side-effects for people with certain types of pre-existing medical conditions, then obviously that should be taken into consideration.
The following video explains the process of how the Covid virus enters a human cell and replicates, beginning at 2.35 minutes into the video. From 5.45 minutes, the role of zinc and Chloroquine is explained. Would you care to point out the flaws and BS in this video, Alan, since you are so knowledgeable on such matters?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BIymfznD7YA
Ray,
I'm not going down any rabbit hole involving HCQ to answer your questions. If you want to find stuff in one place that is good to read, go to Derek Lowe's blog: https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/ He works in drug discovery in the pharma industry has a lot of posts on this topic. You can read the comments to his posts from all the HCQ true believers.
There is ample observational data from a lot of patients that it just doesn't work. There are over 200 trials going on world wide which in my estimation is about 180 too many. Because the half life of the drug is 24 days, anyone on it is likely not eligible for trials that might be worthwhile (such as looking at whether ACE and ARB inhibitors are protective which seems to be a good case that can be made). Finally ask yourself this. It this had the least bit of scientific rationale, don't you think the US military would be using it? One large aircraft carrier has been hit very hard and they still have not been able to totally disinfect it.
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If you are dying, I guess its a gamble some are willing to take. Only you or your loved ones can decide that. If someting better comes along and its not passed a trial I would say the same thing.
This is a fine approach to take if one believes in science by anecdote.
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Bart,
It seems that Sweden also reports Covid deaths in nursing homes and aged care facilities. I've seen reports that about 50% of all Covid related deaths, in both Belgium and Sweden, have occurred in Care Homes.
This is pretty much the story all over. Virus was carried into the facilities by asymptomatic workers.
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This is a fine approach to take if one believes in science by anecdote.
When you dont have any science at all, what do you expect the dying to do? Just say what the heck?
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In Portugal we also count cases from outiside of hospitals, like the nursing homes you mention.
Hope everything improves from now on. The WHO mentioned today that in their scenario analysis, a strong second wave has low probability of happening.
I hope they are right, but I'm skeptical. Until we have a vaccine, it's up to social/physical distancing and personal hygene discipline, and we know how fast people forget when the immediate pressure is reduced ...
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It seems that Sweden also reports Covid deaths in nursing homes and aged care facilities.
I would have thought that every country did if you are tested positive and you die.
Certainly in Australia almost all of our recent cases have been in nursing homes. One home had 19 deaths.
In total though we have only had 10 deaths in the entire continent in the month of May.
Most states still have border closures, but in New South Wales (most populated state of about 8M) you can travel the state now and almost everything is open from Jun1.
Major sport is back without spectators. 6 million have downloaded the app.
Anyone arriving from overseas or into a closed state get 14 days mandatory isolation.
So all looking pretty good at the moment.
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WHO stops HCQ trials, https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-who-hydroxychloroquine-1.5583608 (https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-who-hydroxychloroquine-1.5583608). This happens to be the CBC article but the story has appeared elsewhere.
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WHO stops HCQ trials, https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-who-hydroxychloroquine-1.5583608 (https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/coronavirus-who-hydroxychloroquine-1.5583608). This happens to be the CBC article but the story has appeared elsewhere.
Yes this one has stopped. However, there are over 200 trials many of which are continuing.
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The medical and dental offices in Ontario are opening up slowly.
I was worried about the backlog and long waiting times, but today I was able to book two appointments on a short notice. Either, many people who were put on hold don't know yet about the openings or they are still scared to visit those places.
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I would have thought that every country did if you are tested positive and you die.
Certainly in Australia almost all of our recent cases have been in nursing homes. One home had 19 deaths.
In total though we have only had 10 deaths in the entire continent in the month of May.
Most states still have border closures, but in New South Wales (most populated state of about 8M) you can travel the state now and almost everything is open from Jun1.
Major sport is back without spectators. 6 million have downloaded the app.
Anyone arriving from overseas or into a closed state get 14 days mandatory isolation.
So all looking pretty good at the moment.
I think the problem has been due to a shortage of testing equipment, which makes it an issue of priorities. People in nursing homes tend to die at a far greater rate than people in the general population, with or without the presence of the Covid virus.
However, when comparing the death rates from Covid-19 in different countries, in order to assess the effectiveness of the varying degrees of lock-down, the inclusion or exclusion of Covid related deaths in nursing homes and aged care homes, can skew the comparison.
For example, Sweden has come under a lot of criticism for refusing to implement a government controlled lock-down, and their relatively high death rate per capita suggests they might have done better if they had enforced a lock-down.
However, if Sweden has always included Covid-19 related deaths in nursing homes, whereas many other countries have only recently started to include Covid related deaths in nursing homes, then the reported death tolls from Covid-19, in various countries, are unreliable for the purpose of lock-down comparisons.
Here are a few articles which address the problem.
"Many countries in Europe have essentially ignored coronavirus testing in nursing homes to focus their testing capacity on hospital patients and hospital staffers. In Italy, for instance, a recent national health service report indicated that people dying in nursing homes were overwhelmingly unlikely to have been tested for the virus.
Many countries have not been carefully tracking deaths outside of hospitals, either.
“The challenge is we don’t have very good information for people in care homes,” said Adelina Comas-Herrera, a researcher at the London School of Economics."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/nursing-homes-coronavirus-deaths-europe/2020/04/23/d635619c-8561-11ea-81a3-9690c9881111_story.html
"The United States does not know how many people are dying from COVID-19 in part because the government is only just now requiring nursing homes to start reporting numbers of presumed and confirmed cases and deaths to the federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The missing cases could dramatically skew the national death count. When France started reporting death data from some of its nursing homes, the daily COVID-19 fatality numbers almost doubled."
https://theconversation.com/failure-to-count-covid-19-nursing-home-deaths-could-dramatically-skew-us-numbers-137212
"Residents of nursing homes have accounted for a staggering proportion of Covid-19 deaths in the US, where more than 85,000 people have died. Privately compiled data shows that such deaths now account for more than half of all fatalities in 14 states, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation. But only 33 states report nursing home-related deaths, so the true extent of the problem across the state remains unknown."
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/16/across-the-world-figures-reveal-horrific-covid-19-toll-of-care-home-deaths
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I think the problem has been due to a shortage of testing equipment, which makes it an issue of priorities. People in nursing homes tend to die at a far greater rate than people in the general population, with or without the presence of the Covid virus.
However, when comparing the death rates from Covid-19 in different countries, in order to assess the effectiveness of the varying degrees of lock-down, the inclusion or exclusion of Covid related deaths in nursing homes and aged care homes, can skew the comparison.
[...]
Yes, that's why I warned (as do the serious websites that show statistics while adding disclaimers) that different sources can produce different counts, and that there may be some time lag before some numbers are updated.
However, it does not mean that we're flying totally blind. There are other statistics available that can reveal the potential difference between labeled COVID-19 cases and all causes of death, like this example for the USA:
(https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/05212020/images/nchs-mortality-report.gif)
Source: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/covidview/index.html
It may take some time to calculate / label after testing / use whatever method to figure out how many of the excess mortality is due to COVID-19, but there is no really plausible explanation for the excess above the bandwidth of regular fluctuations due to influenza other than COVID-19. Especially because this excess mortality can be found in probably all other countries in sync with the SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks.
I already posted a similar chart for the Netherlands several weeks ago, so the chart is neither intended to single out any specific political system nor to start a political discussion. Just pointing out the statistics that can help us gain a better understanding. I've attached an updated version for the Netherlands by our Central Bureau for Statistics, which shows that we're almost back to the 'normal' number of deaths per week. In fact, for week 20 we have lower mortality for ages above 80 and for women than we do on average (could be caused by premature death in the weeks before due to COVID-19).
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. . . it does not mean that we're flying totally blind. There are other statistics available that can reveal the potential difference between labeled COVID-19 cases and all causes of death . . .
That's how seasonal influenza statistics are computed here in the United States, where most people who become infected are not tested for the viral strains that are circulating in a particular 'flu season. The federal Centers for Disease Control and Prevention use an after-the-fact modeling technique to develop an estimate (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm) of how many people were infected and how many died in a given season. So 15K deaths among those who tested positive might result in an extrapolated estimate of 45K deaths.
Although we were slow to ramp up testing for the SARS-CoV-2 virus here in the States, there is a substantial amount of testing going on now. The current widely-cited figure of almost 100K deaths is based on tested individuals. However, some unknown number of people are dying of the coronavirus without being tested, for example at home, and no doubt the CDC eventually will produce an estimate similar to the ones it develops each year for seasonal influenza which will be substantially higher.
From what I've been reading, one side effect of the COVID-19 pandemic is that we may get more accurate hard data than usual about the influenza rates for the 2019-2020 and 2020-21 seasons because symptomatic individuals who test negative for SARS-CoV-2 may subsequently be tested for influenza.
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Johns Hopkins, the semi-official counter of "confirmed" covid-19 deaths in the US, now lists more than 100,000 deaths.
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Johns Hopkins, the semi-official counter of "confirmed" covid-19 deaths in the US, now lists more than 100,000 deaths.
Yes, sadly the number doubled in the last month.
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In fighting the Covid-19 disease, a switch to a healthier diet might be more effective in saving lives than the hydroxychloroquine.
In a recent paper published in the scientific journal The Lancet, scientists report that the SARS-CoV-2 virus can infect the endothelial cells that line the inside of blood vessels. Endothelial cells protect the cardiovascular system, and they release proteins that influence everything from blood clotting to the immune response. Endothelial complications occur primarily in patients with cardiovascular disease and/or coronary risk factors, such as hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, smoking and high-fat diet.
In April, blood clots emerged as one of the many mysterious symptoms attributed to Covid-19, a disease that had initially been thought to largely affect the lungs in the form of pneumonia. Quickly after came reports of young people dying due to coronavirus-related strokes. Next it was Covid toes — painful red or purple digits.
What do all of these symptoms have in common? An impairment in blood circulation. Add in the fact that 40% of deaths from Covid-19 are related to cardiovascular complications, and the disease starts to look like a vascular infection instead of a purely respiratory one.
Months into the pandemic, there is now a growing body of evidence to support the theory that the novel coronavirus can infect blood vessels, which could explain not only the high prevalence of blood clots, strokes, and heart attacks, but also provide an answer for the diverse set of head-to-toe symptoms that have emerged.
https://elemental.medium.com/coronavirus-may-be-a-blood-vessel-disease-which-explains-everything-2c4032481ab2
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Finland, Denmark and Norway open the borders to each other, Sweden is left out.
Sweden has taken a different route to stop Corona and it does not appear to be the right one;
We will see this selective approach more often.
The Dutch are not allowed into Greece, but if they take a plain from Germany they have to be allowed to enter the country;
This has to do with EU-rules.
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In fighting the Covid-19 disease, a switch to a healthier diet might be more effective in saving lives than the hydroxychloroquine.
In a recent paper published in the scientific journal The Lancet, scientists report that the SARS-CoV-2 virus can infect the endothelial cells that line the inside of blood vessels. Endothelial cells protect the cardiovascular system, and they release proteins that influence everything from blood clotting to the immune response. Endothelial complications occur primarily in patients with cardiovascular disease and/or coronary risk factors, such as hypertension, dyslipidemia, diabetes, smoking and high-fat diet.
https://elemental.medium.com/coronavirus-may-be-a-blood-vessel-disease-which-explains-everything-2c4032481ab2
That's possible and probable. Now we need to see if this is really that different than past viruses and we just didn't pick up the trends, and more importantly, how this will translate into a changed therapy. There have been already trials involving anticoagulation and such, with various results.
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In fighting the Covid-19 disease, a switch to a healthier diet might be more effective in saving lives than the hydroxychloroquine.
diabet once you get it is forever - so it is too late for fatties to atone
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diabet once you get it is forever - so it is too late for fatties to atone
It's never too late. Perhaps the best example is Ray Kurzweil, a scientist, futurist and inventor who beat his diabetes by stopping taking insulin and changed drastically his diet.
At 35, Kurzweil was diagnosed with type 2 diabetes. Unsatisfied with his medical treatment, he stopped taking insulin injections and crafted his own diet and supplement program.
He is now in his seventies. Since 2012, he's been working at Google as the director of engineering, I'm not sure if he still works there.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil
https://www.wired.com/2002/11/ray-kurzweils-plan-never-die/
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It's never too late. Perhaps the best example is Ray Kurzweil, a scientist, futurist and inventor who beat his diabetes by stopping taking insulin and changed drastically his diet.
He is now in his seventies. Since 2012, he's been working at Google as the director of engineering, I'm not sure if he still works there.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ray_Kurzweil
https://www.wired.com/2002/11/ray-kurzweils-plan-never-die/
While that is possible in some cases, it's unreasonable to think that most people will get the same results. Losing weight can reverse some milder conditions, and it's a standard recommendation along with a better diet; thing is not that many people are able to get to that point despite being encouraged to do so. That's part of the reason there are so many weight loss programs out there, it's not easy to lose weight AND stay that way.
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You are right. For many people, taking pills seems easier than to change their life style and diet. For me, taking medications to counteract some symptoms would be the last resort.
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I will try to dig up the original article, but it goes something like this.
* 99.7% of covid-19 transmission is inside buildings.
* 00.3% of covid-19 transmission happens outside.
Of course this is assuming someone doesn't breath/cough/spit in your face.
Public transport: trains, subway, trams, buses are all excellent places for covid-19 transmission. That's how most people in big cities commute to/from work/school.
Air conditioning, lack of good air circulation, surface transmission, etc, are all the primary drivers. Someone goes to a cafe, gets it from the person next to them, goes home and infects the rest of the people they live with.
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I will try to dig up the original article, but it goes something like this.
* 99.7% of covid-19 transmission is inside buildings.
* 00.3% of covid-19 transmission happens outside.
(https://cdn.prod.www.spiegel.de/images/a04cc6a5-b614-49af-89b1-582e35011019_w948_r1.77_fpx36.66_fpy54.98.jpg)
Must be true. According to a recent Spiegel article, as people started to go outside, the outdoor cafes and restaurants as well the sidewalks are full of people and number of C19 infections compared with the previous months went down. From the peak of 6,000 infections/day to 200-600 infections/day. Only 5 deaths on Sunday, compared with 221 in Canada and 638 in USA.
https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/medizin/corona-pandemie-warum-steigen-die-fallzahlen-trotz-der-lockerungen-nicht-a-869e1f82-3a10-415c-a01a-4173d8435773
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Must be true. According to a recent Spiegel article, as people started to go outside, the outdoor cafes and restaurants as well the sidewalks are full of people and number of C19 infections compared with the previous months went down. From the peak of 6,000 infections/day to 200-600 infections/day.
Right.
Think of it like this. If someone is smoking outdoors, do you inhale secondary smoke? Most likely not. In a restaurant, etc, the answer is different.
But that's just aerosol transmission.
The contact based transmission can still happen outdoors but is less likely unless you're coughing into your hand, shaking someone else's hand, etc.
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After all, it looks like the virus might indeed disappear miracoulously. Apparently, at least in Italy, the coronavirus is losing its potency and has become much less lethal. That could also explain reduced infection and death counts in the recent Worldometer reports.
“In reality, the virus clinically no longer exists in Italy,” said Alberto Zangrillo, the head of the San Raffaele Hospital in Milan in the northern region of Lombardy, which has borne the brunt of Italy’s coronavirus contagion.
“The swabs that were performed over the last 10 days showed a viral load in quantitative terms that was absolutely infinitesimal compared to the ones carried out a month or two months ago,” he told RAI television.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy-virus/new-coronavirus-losing-potency-top-italian-doctor-says-idUSKBN2370OQ
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If someone wants to read more:
"Coronavirus: Here’s how germs are spread and where you’re most likely to catch them"
This article was originally published on 6 May.
As lockdowns start to be lifted, Professor of Biology Erin Bromage explains how infectious diseases spread.
He assesses the risk of catching coronavirus in a variety of settings, including events like weddings and birthday parties.
The risk of catching diseases outdoors is relatively low, he concludes.
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/05/coronavirus-covid19-exposure-risk-catching-virus-germs
While the story was written almost a month ago, much of the analysis is still very worthwhile reading.
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After all, it looks like the virus might indeed disappear miracoulously. Apparently, at least in Italy, the coronavirus is losing its potency and has become much less lethal. That could also explain reduced infection and death counts in the recent Worldometer reports.
While that's hopeful information, based on observations by a respected Professor, it seems to lack scientific evidence for now. There are many things going on at the same time to control the spread of the virus, amongst others lockdowns and isolation, so more solid evidence is required before risking a second wave by lifting restrictions too fast.
After all, this novel Corona-virus replicated very well after the seasonal flu season had ended. And new cases of infection are popping up where people do not respect the guidelines, as a Belgian Prince found out when he attended a party in Spain recently and now has COVID-19. I have to assume that the average temperatures in Spain are slightly higher than in Northern Italy ...
Also, the situation in Brasil shows that it takes more than a high average temperature to knock out the infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2.
So hopefully, there will be a number of good studies from different places that can confirm the observation, which is how the scientific method works. If found to be confirmed, it would allow us to accelerate the unlocking while preparing for the Autumn/Winter season.
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Bart, I understood it in such a way that the virus is getting weaker not because of the warmer weather (which might be also the case), but rather that each subsequent generation loses its potency. Those two Italians seem to be convinced so. One of them said that "today the COVID-19 disease is different".
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Bart, I understood it in such a way that the virus is getting weaker not because of the warmer weather (which might be also the case), but rather that each subsequent generation loses its potency. Those two Italians seem to be convinced so. One of them said that "today the COVID-19 disease is different".
Maybe Les, but that conflicts with another observation that the virus mutates only slowly (which is good news for when a vaccine becomes available). Let's see which new insights further studies will provide about the potency of the virus.
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Also, the situation in Brasil shows that it takes more than a high average temperature to knock out the infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2.
If all it took was high average temperatures then there would be none in India, none in any of South East Asia, various parts of Africa, it would be almost gone in Iran and would not have showed up during Australia's summer.
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While that's hopeful information, based on observations by a respected Professor, it seems to lack scientific evidence for now. There are many things going on at the same time to control the spread of the virus, amongst others lockdowns and isolation, so more solid evidence is required before risking a second wave by lifting restrictions too fast.
After all, this novel Corona-virus replicated very well after the seasonal flu season had ended. And new cases of infection are popping up where people do not respect the guidelines, as a Belgian Prince found out when he attended a party in Spain recently and now has COVID-19. I have to assume that the average temperatures in Spain are slightly higher than in Northern Italy ...
Also, the situation in Brasil shows that it takes more than a high average temperature to knock out the infectiousness of SARS-CoV-2.
So hopefully, there will be a number of good studies from different places that can confirm the observation, which is how the scientific method works. If found to be confirmed, it would allow us to accelerate the unlocking while preparing for the Autumn/Winter season.
This info all seems consistent with what happens normally with flus/cold. In the northern hemisphere, there is more infection in the winter months because people tend to be more indoors more with each other, thus increasing the chances of close interaction. Since Covid-19 transmission relies on close proximity to infected people, it makes sense that it follows a similar pattern. Flus/cold do NOT disappear in the summer, it's just that fewer people get them so there is less chance of catching it in normal everyday life.
Frankly, all these wishful references to the virus magically "disappearing" seem a bit silly to me. It's not as if the info about it isn't out there. Not even the bubonic has completely disappeared, apparently it is still possible to catch it under the right, but thankfully rare, circumstances. It's a virus, unless you destroy every last single one, it will be around. If we provide the right conditions, it will proliferate again. WTF else could possibly happen.
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This info all seems consistent with what happens normally with flus/cold. In the northern hemisphere, there is more infection in the winter months because people tend to be more indoors more with each other, thus increasing the chances of close interaction.
If mask wearing and social distancing continue to exist into fall and winter then it stands to reason that the 2020/2021 instances of flu/cold will also be lower than normal.
Since Covid-19 transmission relies on close proximity to infected people,
It doesn't rely on close proximity but that definitely helps.
Flus/cold do NOT disappear in the summer, it's just that fewer people get them so there is less chance of catching it in normal everyday life.
Yes.
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After all, it looks like the virus might indeed disappear miracoulously. Apparently, at least in Italy, the coronavirus is losing its potency and has become much less lethal.
There are still 60 people a day dying in Italy but Spain has gone to virtually zero.
If the population is closed, as is the situation in many countries, then eventually the number of people you can catch the virus off must go to zero.
The risk is opening up the borders to countries that still have it and new infections entering.
In Australia now there is big push for domestic tourism, which has been caned this year by bushfires, floods and then a pandemic.
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There are still 60 people a day dying in Italy but Spain has gone to virtually zero.
If the population is closed, as is the situation in many countries, then eventually the number of people you can catch the virus off must go to zero.
The risk is opening up the borders to countries that still have it and new infections entering.
In Australia now there is big push for domestic tourism, which has been caned this year by bushfires, floods and then a pandemic.
After 1 month of reopening slowly here in Portugal, the situation seems similar to other countries that have reopened moreor less at the same time. since day 1 of reopening, our government has stated that we can cope with 200 - 300 new cases a day. And indeed that is our new plateau, plus a very stable 13 - 14 deaths per day. Number of cases requiring hospital care and ICU is coming down, which is good.
One interesting thing we are seeing is tht 90% of new cases are in the greater Lisbon area (comprising 18 municipalities), coming from poorer neighbourhoods, large logistical distribution centres, and construction workers. Lisbon area was not very affected during the initial weeks. The region most affectd during the onset of the pandemic, the North (greater Porto area) has been case free for a few days. So this makes sense.
Tourism has opened again, mostly targeting Portuguese, as flights are not many yet. Given the pressure of important economic sectors, some strange things and rules do not make sense. For instance, a flight from abroad arrives, full, where people were travelling shoulder to shoulder; after disembarking, they are recommended to practice social distancing... their temperature is measured, but that is all.
IMO, if a second wave happens, it will be coming from air travel, just like the first one.
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Except for older people like myself who will individually decide to continue to self-isolate, the world seems to be opening up. Let's hope that it's a seasonal thing like the regular flu that dies out and hopeully this one won;t come back in another vbariety in the fall.
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Except for older people like myself who will individually decide to continue to self-isolate, the world seems to be opening up. Let's hope that it's a seasonal thing like the regular flu that dies out and hopeully this one won;t come back in another vbariety in the fall.
Nothing wrong with being careful, but also no need to exaggerate. This novel virus will come back (not that it's gone yet), because the level of immunity of most populations is too low to contain it.
It will take until some 70% of the population has (enough) antibodies, or a vaccine becomes available, before we get to see somewhat similar patterns of infection as the common flu. The severity of the symptoms for certain people will make it more dangerous when it does flare up though, but maybe some medication will be found to reduce that risk as well.
As the testing capabilities are improving, it also becomes easier to isolate early.
BTW, there is specific terminology that one should strive for to use here. 'Isolation' is only used for people who have been confirmed to test positive. Others can/are placed in 'Quarantine', which helps with distancing from those who are contagious but do not yet have symptoms (Pre-symptomatic). If one develops symptoms, then they should get tested.
So, if you want to self-quarantine then that's a prudent choice, but it may be already effective enough to use proper distancing and lots of hand hygiene. Where distancing is impractical, wearing a mask can help to reduce spreading of the virus to others.
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Interesting research out of China floating around on the news feeds today -- it seems that certain people (or maybe groups?) are "super-spreaders," and that 20% of the infected people re-infect 80% of Covid-19 victims, and that another 10% infect the remaining 20% of victims. 70% of people infected with the virus don't re-infect anyone at all. This from apparently peer-reviewed papers, which noted that the same is true of the other two deadly corona viruses, SARS and MERS.
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More and more studies are pointing to useful observations, namely the role of relative humidity in the spreading of SARS-CoV-2.
Here is a recent study:
The role of climate during the COVID‐19 epidemic in New South Wales, Australia
https://onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.1111/tbed.13631
Abstract
Previous research has identified a relationship between climate and occurrence of SARS‐CoV and MERS‐CoV cases, information that can be used to reduce the risk of infection. Using COVID‐19 notification and postcode data from New South Wales, Australia during the exponential phase of the epidemic in 2020, we used time series analysis to investigate the relationship between 749 cases of locally acquired COVID‐19 and daily rainfall, 9 a.m. and 3 p.m. temperature, and 9 a.m. and 3 p.m. relative humidity. Lower 9 a.m. relative humidity (but not rainfall or temperature) was associated with increased case occurrence; a reduction in relative humidity of 1% was predicted to be associated with an increase of COVID‐19 cases by 6.11%. During periods of low relative humidity, the public health system should anticipate an increased number of COVID‐19 cases.
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looks like the understanding of the genetic origin of this virus is getting closer
https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/06/sars-cov-2-looks-like-a-hybrid-of-viruses-from-two-different-species/
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The seven-day running average of deaths in the US has turned up again. (Chart on the front page of the NYT.)
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BTW, there is specific terminology that one should strive for to use here. 'Isolation' is only used for people who have been confirmed to test positive. Others can/are placed in 'Quarantine', which helps with distancing from those who are contagious but do not yet have symptoms (Pre-symptomatic). If one develops symptoms, then they should get tested.
That's not the way in which the words are used in the UK, Bart.
And, for what it's worth, the virus is infectious but it is not contagious (spread by touch).
Jeremy
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That's not the way in which the words are used in the UK, Bart.
Interesting, but surprising, Jeremy. Dutch scientists and those in the medical field in the Netherlands are very strict in their communications amongst themselves and with the general public. Since they are also, by necessity, very much internationally oriented, it is strange that there is not a uniform international use of terminology, jargon.
And, for what it's worth, the virus is infectious but it is not contagious (spread by touch).
Makes sense. Thanks.
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The latest statistics from the Dutch 'bloodbanks', show that of a representative sample of blood donors who gave blood in the middle of May 2020 approx. 5.5% of them have antibodies for the virus. While that's up from 3.5% in April a bit more than a month ago, it is in no way enough to reach herd immunity any time soon.
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That's not the way in which the words are used in the UK, Bart.
And, for what it's worth, the virus is infectious but it is not contagious (spread by touch).
Jeremy
The US CDC still recommends cleaning regarding touching items. Here's an example. You can see the rest of "touching" issues on the link. I disinfect all items before bringing them into the house or l leave for three days in the garage before bringing them inside.
"Wash your hands or use hand sanitizer after accepting deliveries or collecting mail
After receiving your delivery or bringing home your takeout food, wash your hands with soap and water for 20 seconds. If soap and water are not available, use a hand sanitizer with at least 60% alcohol.
After collecting mail from a post office or home mailbox, wash your hands with soap and water for at least 20 seconds or use a hand sanitizer with at least 60% alcohol."
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/daily-life-coping/essential-goods-services.html?utm_campaign=20200603_cvd_prv_gal&utm_content=english&utm_medium=email&utm_source=govdelivery
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And, for what it's worth, the virus is infectious but it is not contagious (spread by touch).
That is certainly different to what we are told in Australia
The virus can spread from person to person through:
close contact with an infectious person (including in the 48 hours before they had symptoms)
contact with droplets from an infected person’s cough or sneeze
touching objects or surfaces (like doorknobs or tables) that have droplets from an infected person, and then touching your mouth or face
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That is certainly different to what we are told in Australia
The virus can spread from person to person through:
close contact with an infectious person (including in the 48 hours before they had symptoms)
contact with droplets from an infected person’s cough or sneeze
touching objects or surfaces (like doorknobs or tables) that have droplets from an infected person, and then touching your mouth or face
Here's details from the Canadian Covid 19 sight.
Human coronaviruses cause infections of the nose, throat and lungs. They are most commonly spread from an infected person through:
respiratory droplets generated when you cough or sneeze
close, prolonged personal contact, such as touching or shaking hands
touching something with the virus on it, then touching your mouth, nose or eyes before washing your hands
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That's not the way in which the words are used in the UK, Bart.
And, for what it's worth, the virus is infectious but it is not contagious (spread by touch).
Jeremy
If you sneeze into your handand shake hands with another person, you can infect them. So yes, it spreads by touch.
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And, for what it's worth, the virus is infectious but it is not contagious (spread by touch).
I have read nothing over the past 12 weeks that points to that being true. I would be happy to be corrected if you can site a scientific paper on this. Contact spreading is not as big a risk as inhalation but it is not zero.
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Correct -I read many times it also spreads by touch (- so that is why they want you to wash your hands often -)
and then your contaminated hand has to reach for your eye /mouth for the virus to get to get inside your body.
so if contagious disease means: it can be caught by touching someone who has the disease... then yes it is contagiaous, although it does not directly cross your skin.
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The Lancet and New England Journal of Médecine have both withdrawn their very high visibility articles discrediting the Chloriquine.
It appears that all the suspicion of strongly biased results based on at least mistaken, and possibly fake, data was totally founded.
It raises very deep questions about the credibility of information published by these journals and about these journals as credible information providers. This stain cannot be washed.
In other news, there is a growing number of publications about the possible benefits of pre-existing lymphocytes T based immunity resulting from earlier exposure to less dangerous forms of corona virus.
This is aligned with the Japanese article I shared last week.
It would explain why kids are mostly unaffected.
Regards,
Bernard
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The Lancet and New England Journal of Médecine have both withdrawn their very high visibility articles discrediting the Chloriquine.
It appears that all the suspicion of strongly biased results based on at least mistaken, and possibly fake, data was totally founded.
It raises very deep questions about the credibility of information published by these journals and about these journals as credible information providers. This stain cannot be washed.
In other news, there is a growing number of publications about the possible benefits of pre-existing lymphocytes T based immunity resulting from earlier exposure to less dangerous forms of corona virus.
This is aligned with the Japanese article I shared last week.
It would explain why kids are mostly unaffected.
Regards,
Bernard
I would have to disagree about the stain. What they did was a demonstration of good medical ethics. The two analyses that were withdrawn were based on data sets that appeared to be valid (and the statistical methods *were* valid) but the data, it seems, cannot be validated. The articles never said that chloroquine was effective against covid-19. One of the articles said that the drug greatly increased heart problems, but the compilers of the data set have refused so far to release the dataset for outside auditing, so three of the four authors asked that it be withdrawn. The other paper looked at the effect of two other drugs on covid-19 patients, and as was the case with the first paper, the data sets could not be confirmed. There's a larger article about this oknt he front page of the Ars Technica website. https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/06/lancet-hydroxychloroquine-study-retracted-shady-data-still-shady/
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I would have to disagree about the stain. What they did was a demonstration of good medical ethics. The two analyses that were withdrawn were based on data sets that appeared to be valid (and the statistical methods *were* valid) but the data, it seems, cannot be validated. The articles never said that chloroquine was effective against covid-19. One of the articles said that the drug greatly increased heart problems, but the compilers of the data set have refused so far to release the dataset for outside auditing, so three of the four authors asked that it be withdrawn. The other paper looked at the effect of two other drugs on covid-19 patients, and as was the case with the first paper, the data sets could not be confirmed. There's a larger article about this oknt he front page of the Ars Technica website. https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/06/lancet-hydroxychloroquine-study-retracted-shady-data-still-shady/
It hurt political leaders and mislead the public. How many other studies are tainted causing confusion in the public and mislead public policy adding to economic and other damage?
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I would have to disagree about the stain. What they did was a demonstration of good medical ethics. The two analyses that were withdrawn were based on data sets that appeared to be valid (and the statistical methods *were* valid) but the data, it seems, cannot be validated. The articles never said that chloroquine was effective against covid-19. One of the articles said that the drug greatly increased heart problems, but the compilers of the data set have refused so far to release the dataset for outside auditing, so three of the four authors asked that it be withdrawn. The other paper looked at the effect of two other drugs on covid-19 patients, and as was the case with the first paper, the data sets could not be confirmed. There's a larger article about this oknt he front page of the Ars Technica website. https://arstechnica.com/science/2020/06/lancet-hydroxychloroquine-study-retracted-shady-data-still-shady/
Hi John,
I am sorry if I am misunderstanding your comments, but I'll have to strongly disagree with you on this. I highlight some fragments in bold since my answer is a bit long.
This study should be considered as devoid of any value for the following reasons:
- It's an a posteriori study without any clarity about the data (no information about the doses administrated, no information about the protocols,...), this is a huge problem because it doesn't allow peers to confirm how the drug was administrated
- It's full of errors (some hospitals were wrongly categorized, the patient health profiles are identical across continents,...)
- The groups of patients to whom the Chloroquine was administrated (6,000 patients) differs significantly from the group of patients to whom it was not administrated (90,000 patients). They display significantly different conditions (among other respiratory condition) when the Chloriquine was given, which means that it's impossible to compare the results since the baseline was different
- Many of these patients appear to be patients that were suffering from heart disease in the first place, patients to whom one typically would not recommend chloroquine, meaning that there is a huge sample selection bias
- the timing of chloroquine administration appears to have been done too late (patient with already severe respiratory symptoms) compared to the timing when it is valuable (earlier in the life cycle of the infection)
- And, last but not least, it was not reviewed by any peer before publication, which by itself is enough to discredit it completely as a scientific publication
With data so poor, the conclusions have absolutely no value. So no, the publication of such crap is absolutely not ethical. It simply says nothing for or against the value or efficiency of the Chloriquine nor anything about its dangers. You can give aspirine to 1,000 people about to die and conclude that aspirine is a terrible killer. That's the same level we are talking about with the Lancet article.
Anyway you look at it it's a shame for science and for the Lancet and I maintain that it's a terrible hit for their credibility. Their editor should be fired on the spot for having authorized the publication of this article. The sensitivity of the topic was perfectly understood, the weakness of the article and it's creaming methodological holes cannot not have been 100% clear for the Lancet, the political impact was clear too. This isn't science, it's politics.
The withdrawal of the article is an obvious confirmation of the issue. It appears that on average only 4 out 10,000 scientific articles are withdrawn every year in leading publications. It's a very rare thing and incredibly rare for high visibility articles making the headlines outside the scientific community.
Note that I don't make any mention of the links between the authors and the pharma industry, but they are closely related to Gilead. The one company with a vested interest in killing the Chloriquine since it is competing with their 4 BUS$ ineffective drug, the Remdesvir.
Cheers,
Bernard
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How many other studies are tainted causing confusion in the public and mislead public policy adding to economic and other damage?
Until they are withdrawn, after peer review, none.
But let's not get into unscientific conspiracy theories again, there are other threads for that.
Also, a good indicator of usefulness is the number of times, a paper is referenced in another study, and the authors who do so. But that takes time to evolve.
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Until they are withdrawn, after peer review, none.
But let's not get into unscientific conspiracy theories again, there are other threads for that.
Also, a good indicator of usefulness is the number of times, a paper is referenced in another study, and the authors who do so. But that takes time to evolve.
I agree wholeheartedly. I used to work in scientific publishing and the idea that these publications have a political agenda is too silly for words. Unfortunately, bad procedures sometimes get past reviewers and articles have to be later retracted. In this case, the authors retracted the article THEMSELVES after finding out about problems in data collection on which they relied.
This demonstrates a different problem than the imagined one with scientific literature, imo. During this pandemic, we have heard from time to time people advocating for speedier adoption of vaccines/treatments, elimination of bureaucracy, as if management efficiency techniques can be widely applied to the development of drugs, that we should just relax some "unnecessary" safeguards. (My own personal opinion of those statements is not polite.) But, given that we are willing to make that compromise, when you do so you are accepting that some things will slip through the cracks, that mistakes will be made more frequently than otherwise. You can have fast and you can have good but it's almost impossible to have both. If you do expect both, what you are actually saying is that you believe in luck. Sometimes that might work, but it is foolish to rely on it.
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Until they are withdrawn, after peer review, none.
But let's not get into unscientific conspiracy theories again, there are other threads for that.
Also, a good indicator of usefulness is the number of times, a paper is referenced in another study, and the authors who do so. But that takes time to evolve.
This whole thread is deficient because you can't discuss politics. How can you review a scientific study that has political influence without discussing politics? When a study has both medical and political influence in a community, to discuss only one aspect of it is stupid. It creates wrong conclusions and allows bogus ideas to have influence without posters being able to comment in an intelligible way. That's why I started my thread. Only when you can hear all thoughts about ideas can there be intelligent discussion. By limiting discussion to medical only, you’re shooting yourself in the foot and cutting your nose off to spite your face.
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. . . you’re shooting yourself in the foot and cutting your nose off to spite your face.
Once again, if you want to beat a dead horse and preach to the choir, please pack up your metaphors in your old kit bag and take a hike over to the "playpen" thread.
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Once again, if you want to beat a dead horse and preach to the choir, please pack up your metaphors in your old kit bag and take a hike over to the "playpen" thread.
Your statement as are most statements here are political in nature. I'm responding to their political nature similarly. You can't cut the baby in half.
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Jeremy, time for some more removals.
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I will weigh in on the retracted studies. I read both of them when they were published and the senior author, Mandeep Mehra, is a head of medicine in a Harvard University teaching hospital. He was not the one at fault here but it was the person who "claimed" to have this large database of patient information which was likely untrue. When the first murmurings came out that something looked wrong with the study, Dr. Mehra contacted the database owner and requested a third party audit of the data file. This is the point where things broke down, there is no alleged conspiracy here but a lack of due diligence on the part of the Harvard investigators, who went into the study "....We all entered this collaboration to contribute in good faith and at a time of great need during the COVID-19 pandemic. We deeply apologise to you, the editors, and the journal readership for any embarrassment or inconvenience that this may have caused..."
Observational studies can be done quite well. When I was working at PhRMA, I was the project manager on a very large project designed to do just that. I presented this to the PhRMA Board (CEOs of major pharmaceutical companies) and got the first $20 million to get it started. I was on the Board of the project for my final two years at PhRMA prior to retiring. This project has morphed into a huge international effort involving researchers from many countries under the auspices of The Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics (https://ohdsi.org/). They are setting up a large study on ALL therapeutics that have been used to date in the treatment of COVID-19 and have access to many more data sets than were in the retracted paper. I don't know what the timing of this will be but once it is up and running data can be acquired and analyzed very quickly as the group has many newly developed tools at their disposal.
One of the difficulties we face right now is that there are many substandard preprints of papers that are being posted. I review probably 200 papers a day and read maybe 10-20% depending on my tolerance. Some of them are very good but my assessment is that 70-80% will never be published. Look at what happened with the first HCQ paper that came out from the Marseilles group two months ago. It was junk and the only reason it was published was the senior author is the editor of the journal it was published in. Nobody really believed that study was correct. I am fond of my newly coined acronym which my newsletter readers are well acquainted with, "TIWWDCT", This Is Why We Do Clinical Trials.
Everyone is hungry for information about vaccine and pharmaceutical development. One should not put much faith in a reported trial of 20-40 patients which is not controlled. The treatment of COVID-19 is proceeding faster than I imagined as clinicians are quickly learning what does and does not work. If one is hospitalized today (and I don't wish this on anybody!), the chances of recovery are much better than two months ago.
I don't want to get into a fight with anyone about the utility of any drug or herbal treatment for COVID-19. I do a daily newsletter that goes into this stuff in great detail. If you wish to get the newsletter send me a PM and I will add you to the list. If you just want to see what type of information I am distilling, all the newsletters are archived HERE (https://agoldhammer.com/covid_19/) If you do visit you can find two good cookie recipes to help get you through the pandemic.
I'm happy to respond to individual questions either openly here or via PM.
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The problem, Alan, is questionable studies confuse the public on what they should do and officials who have to make policy.
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The problem, Alan, is questionable studies confuse the public on what they should do and officials who have to make policy.
Alan, I don't know about the general public, but I think they get more confused by the pulp they read on social media, and what some politicians want them to react to.
But policymakers/officials who fulfill their obligations to the general public are not satisfied with a single publication that fits their agenda. They will seek the help of several experts (with sometimes opposing views) from different fields of expertise. They will listen carefully and ask questions to see if they understand what is being said. They then draw their conclusions based on knowledge and policy objectives and make considerations that maximise the result.
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This is the point where things broke down, there is no alleged conspiracy here but a lack of due diligence on the part of the Harvard investigators, who went into the study
[/quote]
When face with the choice of conspiracy theory or someone simply screwed up, go with the screw up. Conspiracy theories require a lot of effort to get right. Screwing up is much easier.
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Alan, I don't know about the general public, but I think they get more confused by the pulp they read on social media, and what some politicians want them to react to.
But policymakers/officials who fulfill their obligations to the general public are not satisfied with a single publication that fits their agenda. They will seek the help of several experts (with sometimes opposing views) from different fields of expertise. They will listen carefully and ask questions to see if they understand what is being said. They then draw their conclusions based on knowledge and policy objectives and make considerations that maximise the result.
GIGO.
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GIGO.
Correct, unless you are talking about the recycling industry. But that's for another thread.
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This whole thread is deficient because you can't discuss politics.
This is incorrect. Please stop beating the horse, it's dead.
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The problem, Alan, is questionable studies confuse the public on what they should do and officials who have to make policy.
I would argue that the general public is unqualified to read highly technical articles in specialized scientific journals. Amateur interpretations of their meaning or validity are risky at best. If a scientist publishes something iffy, fear not, there will soon be line-ups of others in the same field who will say so.
Freaking out over what some every paper says or not is silly. It takes years for the accumulated knowledge to be widely distributed, digested, tested.
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This is the point where things broke down, there is no alleged conspiracy here but a lack of due diligence on the part of the Harvard investigators, who went into the study
Correct and within a week or so, the papers were retracted. I am sure that Dr. Mehra's reputation is going to take a significant hit.
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This whole thread is deficient because you can't discuss politics.
That's the way it is, and that's the way it will stay; and it's not "deficient" in consequence. If you want to discuss* politics, do it elsewhere, or suffer the consequences.
Jeremy
* I use the word in its loosest possible sense, of course
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I would argue that the general public is unqualified to read highly technical articles in specialized scientific journals. Amateur interpretations of their meaning or validity are risky at best. If a scientist publishes something iffy, fear not, there will soon be line-ups of others in the same field who will say so.
Freaking out over what some every paper says or not is silly. It takes years for the accumulated knowledge to be widely distributed, digested, tested.
Come on Bob. You know that it's the media that takes the ball and runs with it. The public listens to the media. They're the ones who advise the public. Frankly, I doubt if the media reads it. They all just repeat everything someone else says anyway. So wrong or misinterpreted "science" gets repeated. The public suffer. Policy makers are ignorant as well. We all just muddle along.
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Correct and within a week or so, the papers were retracted. I am sure that Dr. Mehra's reputation is going to take a significant hit.
Why wasn't the due diligence done before publishing? Why did they wait until it was published and then just a week later retract it? Something smells fishy.
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Why wasn't the due diligence done before publishing? Why did they wait until it was published and then just a week later retract it? Something smells fishy.
Okay, I'll bite. Why did they wait until it was published and then just a week later retract it?
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Why wasn't the due diligence done before publishing? Why did they wait until it was published and then just a week later retract it? Something smells fishy.
You will have to ask those involved.
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If you don't like the Lancet article, here's another one whose results are the same which came out today:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/05/hydroxychloroquine-had-no-benefit-for-hospitalized-covid-19-patients-possibly-closing-door-to-use-of-drug/
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If you don't like the Lancet article, here's another one whose results are the same which came out today:
https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/05/hydroxychloroquine-had-no-benefit-for-hospitalized-covid-19-patients-possibly-closing-door-to-use-of-drug/
Yes, this pretty much ends the conjecture. This was a very large trial and the Data Safety Monitoring Board found it necessary to communicate preliminary results because of clinical importance. The full press statement is here: https://www.recoverytrial.net/files/hcq-recovery-statement-050620-final-002.pdf and it's pretty darn clear. Of course this won't satisfy all of the hydroxycholorquine fans who may argue that the right level of zinc or azithromycin wasn't used.
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Yes, this pretty much ends the conjecture. This was a very large trial and the Data Safety Monitoring Board found it necessary to communicate preliminary results because of clinical importance. The full press statement is here: https://www.recoverytrial.net/files/hcq-recovery-statement-050620-final-002.pdf and it's pretty darn clear. Of course this won't satisfy all of the hydroxycholorquine fans who may argue that the right level of zinc or azithromycin wasn't used.
The original news reports for the other reports that were pulled indicated that it was also dangerous causing more heart issues. Does this new report conclude the same heart issues?
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The original news reports for the other reports that were pulled indicated that it was also dangerous causing more heart issues. Does this new report conclude the same heart issues?
The heart issues associated with HCQ are well known and totally unrelated to whether one has COVID-19 or not. There have been other reputable studies published showing increased mortality from heart problems when on HCQ, including a large study from the group that I am associated with.
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Come on Bob. You know that it's the media that takes the ball and runs with it. The public listens to the media. They're the ones who advise the public. Frankly, I doubt if the media reads it. They all just repeat everything someone else says anyway. So wrong or misinterpreted "science" gets repeated. The public suffer. Policy makers are ignorant as well. We all just muddle along.
Utter nonsense. You are surrounded by physicians and public health authorities whose job it is to keep abreast of this info and they tell the public about it every day. The problem arises when people go look for conspiracy nonsense on the web and think that's research. Don't take medical advice from National Enquirer or youtube. (Is there still a National Enquirer, I don't actually know.)
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Something smells fishy.
No it doesn't, calm down. Conspiracy novels are fun but don't take them seriously.
Anyway, if this was a conspiracy, it was a third-rate one without much consequence. I mean, if I were going to go to the trouble to submit an article to a prestigious science journal, find data, some co-authors, write and submit, I'd try to come up with something that would at least net me some cash or something. Otherwise, what's the point.
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No it doesn't, calm down. Conspiracy novels are fun but don't take them seriously.
Anyway, if this was a conspiracy, it was a third-rate one without much consequence. I mean, if I were going to go to the trouble to submit an article to a prestigious science journal, find data, some co-authors, write and submit, I'd try to come up with something that would at least net me some cash or something. Otherwise, what's the point.
I don’t have an opinion about the authors.
But I still cannot understand how and why:
- the Lancet decided to publish such an article without peer reviews
- how they could themselves overlook the obvious huge issues with the article before publishing it, knowing full well how controversial it was going to be. It took less than one hour for professional researchers to report about the very visible issues with this study
I am sorry, but this level of screw up doesn’t happen.
This is akin to Real Madrid loosing 10:0 against a team of blind monkeys.
Cheers,
Bernard
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The heart issues associated with HCQ are well known and totally unrelated to whether one has COVID-19 or not. There have been other reputable studies published showing increased mortality from heart problems when on HCQ, including a large study from the group that I am associated with.
Alan, you didn't answer my question. As I recall the report that was pulled indicated heart issues. Those were reported with a lot of fanfare in the news. You indicated that this new report closed the case anyway. That isn't true because the new report said nothing about heart issues. You should have indicated that the original pulled report was wrong about their severe conclusions of heart issues. After all, that point was a big issue at the time the report was originally published. Everything that report said was pulled including their conclusions about heart problems. Your keeping silent on that is inappropriate.
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I don’t have an opinion about the authors.
But I still cannot understand how and why:
- the Lancet decided to publish such an article without peer reviews
- how they could themselves overlook the obvious huge issues with the article before publishing it, knowing full well how controversial it was going to be. It took less than one hour for professional researchers to report about the very visible issues with this study
I am sorry, but this level of screw up doesn’t happen.
This is akin to Real Madrid loosing 10:0 against a team of blind monkeys.
Cheers,
Bernard
For a change we seem to be in total agreement. How did the authors discover this issue within one week after publishing it? Suddenly they do their due diligence afterwards, not before. How come they didn't ask for the data before the report was published yet days afterwards they pull it?
It seems they had to know the original data would not be released to them long before they published. But they published anyway. Why?
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No it doesn't, calm down. Conspiracy novels are fun but don't take them seriously.
Anyway, if this was a conspiracy, it was a third-rate one without much consequence. I mean, if I were going to go to the trouble to submit an article to a prestigious science journal, find data, some co-authors, write and submit, I'd try to come up with something that would at least net me some cash or something. Otherwise, what's the point.
It was done for political reasons. But we can't discuss that in this thread. So we'll all have to walk around acting like dummies. Which is why this thread is a waste of everyone's time.
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Yes, this pretty much ends the conjecture. This was a very large trial and the Data Safety Monitoring Board found it necessary to communicate preliminary results because of clinical importance. The full press statement is here: https://www.recoverytrial.net/files/hcq-recovery-statement-050620-final-002.pdf and it's pretty darn clear. Of course this won't satisfy all of the hydroxycholorquine fans who may argue that the right level of zinc or azithromycin wasn't used.
I am sure that the reactions to this new article isn’t going to be limited to the question of the doses.
I can anticipate at least two other significant challenges:
- in both populations the level of mortality is around 25%, which indicates that patients were probably at an advanced stage of the disease and/or could not be treated the right way, possibly due to the high load of hospitals in UK at the time. Either way, this rate is much higher than what was reported elsewhere. Raoult reports 0.5% for instance
- the hydrochloriquine was not used in combination with the azithromycin if my understanding is correct.
So the protocole whose inefficiency is convincingly demonstrated appears to differ significantly from that said by Raoult to work, even if they both utilize the hydrochloriquine.
I am not a fan of any particular treatment, just trying to point out some questions.
Finally, I sense that momentum is building due to the accumulation of apparent data points against the hydrochloriquine, something akin to “there is no smoke without fire”, but I would just like to stress that both recently withdrawn article should be 100% removed from the picture since they demonstrated nothing at all.
Cheers,
Bernard
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It was done for political reasons. But we can't discuss that in this thread. So we'll all have to walk around acting like dummies. Which is why this thread is a waste of everyone's time.
What part of No Politics don't you understand? You'd think being banned for seven days would be enough of a wake up call. Apparently not.
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For a change we seem to be in total agreement. How did the authors discover this issue within one week after publishing it? Suddenly they do their due diligence afterwards, not before. How come they didn't ask for the data before the report was published yet days afterwards they pull it?
It seems they had to know the original data would not be released to them long before they published. But they published anyway. Why?
Not quite Alan.
You are focusing on the authors and on their possible motivations, I am focusing on The Lancet, which is an order of magnitude more serious.
Authors can be genuinely convinced, no issue. It could be a combination of honnest mistakes and an inability to take sufficient distance with one’s own work.
But a scientific journal as prestigious as the Lancet is supposed to act as a gatekeeper. And they have failed miserably here.
Note that I am not focusing on the why but on the what which is relevant because it touches on the credibility or lack thereof of the very mechanism through which scientific knowledge is being shared.
Cheers,
Bernard
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I don’t have an opinion about the authors.
But I still cannot understand how and why:
- the Lancet decided to publish such an article without peer reviews
- how they could themselves overlook the obvious huge issues with the article before publishing it, knowing full well how controversial it was going to be. It took less than one hour for professional researchers to report about the very visible issues with this study
I am sorry, but this level of screw up doesn’t happen.
This is akin to Real Madrid loosing 10:0 against a team of blind monkeys.
Cheers,
Bernard
It's not anything of the kind. I think your outrage is exaggerated. This is not the end of science. It's not even a particularly nasty case. I don't understand your statement that these kinds of screw-ups don't happen. They do. And this one self-corrected and pretty quickly at that.
Why do you say it was published without peer review? I never saw that mentioned anywhere and I find that doubtful. There is no guarantee that the peer review would have discovered the underlying issues. My understanding is that the authors relied on a data base not of their creation. If the researchers who did the peer review also accepted the data source, if they had no reason not to, then the problems with the underlying data would not have been discovered by them. It's quite possible that none of the reviewers had any reason to doubt the source of the data. Peer reviewers do not repeat all your work from the ground up.
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It was done for political reasons. But we can't discuss that in this thread. So we'll all have to walk around acting like dummies. Which is why this thread is a waste of everyone's time.
You have sat too long here for any good you are doing. Depart, I say, and let us have done with you.
(1) Apologies to the monarchists in the audience.
(2) That is a request for a voluntary departure, not a proposal to have anyone banned from posting.
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Alan, you didn't answer my question. As I recall the report that was pulled indicated heart issues. Those were reported with a lot of fanfare in the news. You indicated that this new report closed the case anyway. That isn't true because the new report said nothing about heart issues. You should have indicated that the original pulled report was wrong about their severe conclusions of heart issues. After all, that point was a big issue at the time the report was originally published. Everything that report said was pulled including their conclusions about heart problems. Your keeping silent on that is inappropriate.
I don't know which study you are talking about. the big one that was pulled was whether HCQ worked or didn't. The paper said it did not and the "owner" of the data base would not let it be audited. That is all I know about that. One of the major side effects of HCQ is heart arrhythmia and this is exacerbated when given in combination with azithromycin. If you want a list of citations on this I probably can dig them up. This is one of the reasons the VA, who published their own study a month ago, stopped giving it to patients and why the medical community at large are no longer using either HCQ or the combination as "standard of care" in hospitalized patients. The drugs just don't work and this is what most of the papers say.
I don't know how better to answer your question.
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But I still cannot understand how and why:
- the Lancet decided to publish such an article without peer reviews
- how they could themselves overlook the obvious huge issues with the article before publishing it, knowing full well how controversial it was going to be. It took less than one hour for professional researchers to report about the very visible issues with this study
I am sorry, but this level of screw up doesn’t happen.
This is akin to Real Madrid loosing 10:0 against a team of blind monkeys.
Cheers,
Bernard
Medical journals frequently publish communications on important clinical issues. These are not peer reviewed but the editors may decide the issues are important enough that broader dissemination to the medical community is needed. It is not just The Lancet but most other medical journals do the same thing. Stuff happens and, as I said earlier, Dr. Mehra should have been more vigilant before submitting the paper for publication. His reputation took a serious hit.
Real Madrid got trashed last year by my team, Ajax, at the Bernabeu in a Champions League game and were knocked out of the competition. Stuff happens to them as well.
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Medical journals frequently publish communications on important clinical issues. These are not peer reviewed but the editors may decide the issues are important enough that broader dissemination to the medical community is needed. It is not just The Lancet but most other medical journals do the same thing. Stuff happens and, as I said earlier, Dr. Mehra should have been more vigilant before submitting the paper for publication. His reputation took a serious hit.
Real Madrid got trashed last year by my team, Ajax, at the Bernabeu in a Champions League game and were knocked out of the competition. Stuff happens to them as well.
Ah, thank you. It was a Communication, not a full-blown article. My apologies for not knowing that, I managed to miss it. As you say, it looks bad for those authors, but Bernard's statements about the journal are misplaced. This is not much of anything in the end, a goof-up at a time when people are probably being a bit less careful because of the current pressure.
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All this drama happens because some people try to make science political, which shouldn't happen.
Honestly I didn't even read this study because it didn't really add anything, currently there is no good data that hydroxychloroquine is beneficial. Until such data exists, there is no purpose for it outside of prospective trials. As it is it shouldn't be given and that should be the default.
As to why Lancet published it, I don't know. Obviously there were failures to properly vetoed critical parts of it, maybe they were looking to become more relevant and jumped some steps. It makes no sense to be political, it didn't really add anything new. And Lancet also published the retracted study with the MMR causing autism, that probably did more damage (and still is) than all other retracted studies combined.
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Mortality in critically ill patients. Limited by location but supporting that when you have resources it's not that bad as some made it to be.
https://journals.lww.com/ccmjournal/Abstract/9000/ICU_and_Ventilator_Mortality_Among_Critically_Ill.95639.aspx
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Medical journals frequently publish communications on important clinical issues. These are not peer reviewed but the editors may decide the issues are important enough that broader dissemination to the medical community is needed. It is not just The Lancet but most other medical journals do the same thing. Stuff happens and, as I said earlier, Dr. Mehra should have been more vigilant before submitting the paper for publication. His reputation took a serious hit.
Real Madrid got trashed last year by my team, Ajax, at the Bernabeu in a Champions League game and were knocked out of the competition. Stuff happens to them as well.
Alan,
You know much better than this.
The very importance of this issue should have triggered an in-depth review by the Lancet. And one was not even needed. Any person with reasonable knowledge of medical studies in general and of the covid19 situation in particular, could have easily detected the problems that have caused the article to be withdrawn.
Anyway, I'll stop here.
Cheers,
Bernard
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Anyway, if this was a conspiracy, it was a third-rate one without much consequence. I mean, if I were going to go to the trouble to submit an article to a prestigious science journal, find data, some co-authors, write and submit, I'd try to come up with something that would at least net me some cash or something. Otherwise, what's the point.
Exactly! We're all biased to some degree, and earning a living, maintaining the cash flow, and increasing one's prosperity, is a major cause of bias. However, I wouldn't describe that as 'without much consequence'.
Here's an informative article from the 'Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine' which addresses the problems of the Peer Review process.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1420798/
"Peer review is at the heart of the processes of not just medical journals but of all of science. It is the method by which grants are allocated, papers published, academics promoted, and Nobel prizes won. Yet it is hard to define. It has until recently been unstudied. And its defects are easier to identify than its attributes. Yet it shows no sign of going away. Famously, it is compared with democracy: a system full of problems but the least worst we have.
That is why Robbie Fox, the great 20th century editor of the Lancet, who was no admirer of peer review, wondered whether anybody would notice if he were to swap the piles marked `publish' and `reject'. He also joked that the Lancet had a system of throwing a pile of papers down the stairs and publishing those that reached the bottom. When I was editor of the BMJ I was challenged by two of the cleverest researchers in Britain to publish an issue of the journal comprised only of papers that had failed peer review and see if anybody noticed. I wrote back `How do you know I haven't already done it?' ;D
I'll add a few more quotes from the article, for the benefit of those who can't be bothered to read it.
"But does peer review `work' at all? A systematic review of all the available evidence on peer review concluded that `the practice of peer review is based on faith in its effects, rather than on facts'. But the answer to the question on whether peer review works depends on the question `What is peer review for?'.
One answer is that it is a method to select the best grant applications for funding and the best papers to publish in a journal.
Stephen Lock when editor of the BMJ (British Medical Journal) conducted a study in which he alone decided which of a consecutive series of papers submitted to the journal he would publish. He then let the papers go through the usual process. There was little difference between the papers he chose and those selected after the full process of peer review.
Peer review might also be useful for detecting errors or fraud. At the BMJ we did several studies where we inserted major errors into papers that we then sent to many reviewers. Nobody ever spotted all of the errors. Some reviewers did not spot any, and most reviewers spotted only about a quarter.
So we have little evidence on the effectiveness of peer review, but we have considerable evidence on its defects. In addition to being poor at detecting gross defects and almost useless for detecting fraud, it is slow, expensive, profligate of academic time, highly subjective, something of a lottery, prone to bias, and easily abused.
People have a great many fantasies about peer review, and one of the most powerful is that it is a highly objective, reliable, and consistent process. I regularly received letters from authors who were upset that the BMJ rejected their paper and then published what they thought to be a much inferior paper on the same subject. Always they saw something underhand. They found it hard to accept that peer review is a subjective and, therefore, an inconsistent process."
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It was done for political reasons. But we can't discuss that in this thread. So we'll all have to walk around acting like dummies. Which is why this thread is a waste of everyone's time.
You have my permission not to read or contribute to it; I think we can survive being deprived of your insight into the motives of people of whom you know nothing. God forbid your time should be wasted.
The very importance of this issue should have triggered an in-depth review by the Lancet. And one was not even needed. Any person with reasonable knowledge of medical studies in general and of the covid19 situation in particular, could have easily detected the problems that have caused the article to be withdrawn.
As far as I've been able to gather, the paper was withdrawn because of perceived unreliability of the source data; that's not something peer review is designed, or indeed able, to detect.
Jeremy
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I'll only add one final point to the ugly Surgisphere database retraction. There are many good large data sets the either already exist or are being constructed as the SARS-CoV-2 virus infections have increased. The UK National Health Service data records and the UK Biobank have both contributed to our understanding of the disease and offered some valuable clues as to how treatment of serious COVID-19 can be improved. This is a huge advantage in countries that have national health systems and robust electronic medical records that can be easily examined. One of the difficulties in the US is that each regional and local health system may have good data but it is cumbersome to aggregate and analyze. this is one of the reasons there are a proliferation of preprints from US sites. I think I've seen at least eight different groups within the greater New York/New Jersey area (there may be more as this is just a quick recollection) that have preprints on very similar clinical issues.
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As far as I've been able to gather, the paper was withdrawn because of perceived unreliability of the source data; that's not something peer review is designed, or indeed able, to detect.
Jeremy
Having done many peer reviews for journals (not in the medical area), I agree that it is often very difficult to evaluate the reliability of data unless there is a clear methodological flaw or systematic error in the gathering of the data. Keep in mind that folks doing peer review are busy people and the time spent doing peer review is essentially volunteered in the sense that the 4-5 hours required to do a good peer review just takes time away from all of the other things that need to be done.
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Having done many peer reviews for journals (not in the medical area), I agree that it is often very difficult to evaluate the reliability of data unless there is a clear methodological flaw or systematic error in the gathering of the data. Keep in mind that folks doing peer review are busy people and the time spent doing peer review is essentially volunteered in the sense that the 4-5 hours required to do a good peer review just takes time away from all of the other things that need to be done.
+1; this was my experience as well back in the day when I was still an active researcher. It is the same time commitment for reviewing research grant applications.
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Exactly! We're all biased to some degree, and earning a living, maintaining the cash flow, and increasing one's prosperity, is a major cause of bias. However, I wouldn't describe that as 'without much consequence'.
Here's an informative article from the 'Journal of the Royal Society of Medicine' which addresses the problems of the Peer Review process.
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC1420798/
"Peer review is at the heart of the processes of not just medical journals but of all of science. It is the method by which grants are allocated, papers published, academics promoted, and Nobel prizes won. Yet it is hard to define. It has until recently been unstudied. And its defects are easier to identify than its attributes. Yet it shows no sign of going away. Famously, it is compared with democracy: a system full of problems but the least worst we have.
Yes, there are all kinds of ways that things can go off the rails. I hope you don't think that this is news.
I used to work in scientific publishing. At every level, guarding against all the things that can go wrong is standard operating procedure every single day. Now and then, something slips through the cracks, we fix it and move on. That's how everything works the world over. You did not just discover something that everyone else missed.
That is why Robbie Fox, the great 20th century editor of the Lancet, who was no admirer of peer review, wondered whether anybody would notice if he were to swap the piles marked `publish' and `reject'. He also joked that the Lancet had a system of throwing a pile of papers down the stairs and publishing those that reached the bottom. When I was editor of the BMJ I was challenged by two of the cleverest researchers in Britain to publish an issue of the journal comprised only of papers that had failed peer review and see if anybody noticed. I wrote back `How do you know I haven't already done it?' ;D
I'll add a few more quotes from the article, for the benefit of those who can't be bothered to read it.
"But does peer review `work' at all? A systematic review of all the available evidence on peer review concluded that `the practice of peer review is based on faith in its effects, rather than on facts'. But the answer to the question on whether peer review works depends on the question `What is peer review for?'.
One answer is that it is a method to select the best grant applications for funding and the best papers to publish in a journal.
Stephen Lock when editor of the BMJ (British Medical Journal) conducted a study in which he alone decided which of a consecutive series of papers submitted to the journal he would publish. He then let the papers go through the usual process. There was little difference between the papers he chose and those selected after the full process of peer review.
Peer review might also be useful for detecting errors or fraud. At the BMJ we did several studies where we inserted major errors into papers that we then sent to many reviewers. Nobody ever spotted all of the errors. Some reviewers did not spot any, and most reviewers spotted only about a quarter.
So we have little evidence on the effectiveness of peer review, but we have considerable evidence on its defects. In addition to being poor at detecting gross defects and almost useless for detecting fraud, it is slow, expensive, profligate of academic time, highly subjective, something of a lottery, prone to bias, and easily abused.
People have a great many fantasies about peer review, and one of the most powerful is that it is a highly objective, reliable, and consistent process. I regularly received letters from authors who were upset that the BMJ rejected their paper and then published what they thought to be a much inferior paper on the same subject. Always they saw something underhand. They found it hard to accept that peer review is a subjective and, therefore, an inconsistent process."
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But think of how white your teeth become.
"Americans are gargling with bleach and drinking household cleaners to prevent coronavirus: CDC report"
https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/americans-are-gargling-with-bleach-and-drinking-household-cleaners-to-prevent-coronavirus-cdc-report/ar-BB156p7v
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That's not the way in which the words are used in the UK, Bart.
And, for what it's worth, the virus is infectious but it is not contagious (spread by touch).
Jeremy
Where did you hear this? It's information ( bad info ) spreading around that does more harm than good. Yes, it is mostly spread through the air...but I haven't read one item saying it is not spread from object to human. Do you have your source on this information ( misinformation ) ?
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Yes, there are all kinds of ways that things can go off the rails. I hope you don't think that this is news.
I used to work in scientific publishing. At every level, guarding against all the things that can go wrong is standard operating procedure every single day. Now and then, something slips through the cracks, we fix it and move on. That's how everything works the world over. You did not just discover something that everyone else missed.
Robert,
Of course we all make mistakes. That's obviously not news. For example, you have just made the mistake of inserting your reply to my post in the middle of my italicized quotes from the article, causing the confusion that your reply is part of the quotes. ;D
The purpose of the article was to point out that there is an over-rated confidence and belief in the efficacy of the Peer Review system. Consider the relevant quotes below. You seem to have missed the main point of the article, perhaps because of your own biases. ;)
"At the BMJ we did several studies where we inserted major errors into papers that we then sent to many reviewers. Nobody ever spotted all of the errors. Some reviewers did not spot any, and most reviewers spotted only about a quarter.
So we have little evidence on the effectiveness of peer review, but we have considerable evidence on its defects. In addition to being poor at detecting gross defects and almost useless for detecting fraud, it is slow, expensive, profligate of academic time, highly subjective, something of a lottery, prone to bias, and easily abused.
People have a great many fantasies about peer review, and one of the most powerful is that it is a highly objective, reliable, and consistent process.
From the Conclusion:
So peer review is a flawed process, full of easily identified defects with little evidence that it works. Nevertheless, it is likely to remain central to science and journals because there is no obvious alternative, and scientists and editors have a continuing belief in peer review. How odd that science should be rooted in belief."
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As far as I've been able to gather, the paper was withdrawn because of perceived unreliability of the source data; that's not something peer review is designed, or indeed able, to detect.
Jeremy,
If you look at the details, you will see that there were very clear inconsistencies that should have triggered major red flags had the paper been peer reviewed, which it apparently wasn't, but also at the level of editor.
The Lancet first corrected some of these issues before deciding to withdraw the paper.
Cheers,
Bernard
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"Hydroxychloroquine is not dead yet
Trials for its use against COVID-19 continue, with some researchers still hopeful it can serve as a preventative in people not yet exposed to the virus."
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/hydroxychloroquine-not-dead-yet-n1224586
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Jeremy,
If you look at the details, you will see that there were very clear inconsistencies that should have triggered major red flags had the paper been peer reviewed, which it apparently wasn't, but also at the level of editor.
The Lancet first corrected some of these issues before deciding to withdraw the paper.
Bernard, my interest is insufficient. I gave up reading The Lancet as a medical student, when I realised that I couldn't understand even the titles of half the articles (the BMJ was easier to cope with). Horton's record for withdrawing misleading papers before they do significant harm is far from stellar: it took him something like a decade to retract Wakefield's spectacularly damaging paper on MMR and autism.
Jeremy
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"Hydroxychloroquine is not dead yet
Trials for its use against COVID-19 continue, with some researchers still hopeful it can serve as a preventative in people not yet exposed to the virus."
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/hydroxychloroquine-not-dead-yet-n1224586
I wonder if any of these trials will be completed. The Duke study is designed to enroll 15,000 patients (the statistician who helped design the study is a former colleague). A lot of healthcare workers are not going to take the drug but may participate in the control arm (this was mentioned in the article). Most of my friends would not take it because of the adverse event profile and long duration in the body (half life is 24 days). It is also much more difficult to prove prevention than it is treatment for statistical reasons. If the virus wanes during the summer, proof of prophylaxis will be very difficult and it's unclear what the correct dosage ought to be. For malaria it was a once a week dose regimen but the drug is not used much these days because of resistance. I am not holding out much hope that we will find out whether it works or not. Meanwhile there are other drugs which do have a plausible mechanism for prevention that are being understudied.
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Having done many peer reviews for journals (not in the medical area), I agree that it is often very difficult to evaluate the reliability of data unless there is a clear methodological flaw or systematic error in the gathering of the data. Keep in mind that folks doing peer review are busy people and the time spent doing peer review is essentially volunteered in the sense that the 4-5 hours required to do a good peer review just takes time away from all of the other things that need to be done.
Bernard, my interest is insufficient. I gave up reading The Lancet as a medical student, when I realised that I couldn't understand even the titles of half the articles (the BMJ was easier to cope with). Horton's record for withdrawing misleading papers before they do significant harm is far from stellar: it took him something like a decade to retract Wakefield's spectacularly damaging paper on MMR and autism.
Jeremy
So how is the average layman suppose to accept scientific reports and studies when scientists themselves have little respect for the science journals and studies? When we laymen refuse to follow Covid recommendations or Climate Control, we're called to task. Well, it seems that we're right not to respect these studies. They only sew more confusion and distrust of the whole process.
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So how is the average layman suppose to accept scientific reports and studies when scientists themselves have little respect for the science journals and studies? When we laymen refuse to follow Covid recommendations or Climate Control, we're called to task. Well, it seems that we're right not to respect these studies. They only sew more confusion and distrust of the whole process.
the overwhelming majority of papers that are peer reviewed are solid. Some areas of medicine and science are inexact. A classic example to point to are the antidepressants. We don't have a simple test to determine whether someone suffers from depression. We know a lot about brain chemistry but not enough. Drugs get developed using subjective measures, does the patient feel better; is he/she able to better handle every day tasks; do they have fewer suicidal thoughts, etc. It would be great if we could do neural scans and say for certain the drug is helping you. Most antidepressants work on maybe 60% of the patients and often different drugs need to be tried to find one that is optimal for that patient. You can read all the papers on this topic and still not have a firm idea of what drug works for which patient.
Following COVID-19 recommendations is quite different from climate change. Climate change may not affect your life over the next 5 or so years but if you go out to a crowded market without a mask and start talking to people for more than five minutes or so you put yourself at risk.
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So how is the average layman suppose to accept scientific reports and studies when scientists themselves have little respect for the science journals and studies?
What? Who says they have no respect for them. Knowledge in a subject area is built up over time when studies are replicated and results confirmed by more than one researcher. It is pretty rare that one solitary study leads to immediate policy, if ever, so why do you pay attention.
The answer to your first question is that the average layman is not supposed to understand what is written in specialized technical papers. Why would you expect to? Do you expect to understand papers in mathematics or physics journals? Do you read IEEE journals to understand how new computer chips work?
I'm sorry but your premise makes no sense. And anyway, you asked the same thing yesterday when I answered that what you do is rely on doctors and public health authorities to keep abreast of these things and act as consultants when it comes time to enact policy.
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So how is the average layman suppose to accept scientific reports and studies when scientists themselves have little respect for the science journals and studies? When we laymen refuse to follow Covid recommendations or Climate Control, we're called to task. Well, it seems that we're right not to respect these studies. They only sew more confusion and distrust of the whole process.
It is really pretty straight forward: you believe the articles you want to believe and call the others fake news. Then when asked how you tell the difference, you just say "discernment". At least that is what you told me when I asked you how you distinguished true stories from fake news in the New York Times. Discernment. Should work for scientific articles as well.
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So how is the average layman suppose to accept scientific reports and studies . . .
(1) Wait for an expert consensus to develop.
(2) Accept the consensus since, as "an average layman," you do not possess the credentials to dispute it.
(3) If the expert consensus changes as new evidence is acquired, accept the new consensus.
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(1) Wait for an expert consensus to develop.
(2) Accept the consensus since, as "an average layman," you do not possess the credentials to dispute it.
(3) If the expert consensus changes as new evidence is acquired, accept the new consensus.
That would be fine if we were all objective and unbiased people. But we are not. Even scientists can belong to a group that promotes their own self-interest. I find the issue of 'climate change' quite fascinating because it presents so many examples of 'untruths' or 'partial truths' that are promoted in the interests of getting a certain type of political and economic action.
I'm reminded of the famous 'double ethical bind' quote from the late Dr. Stephen Schneider who used to work in the field of climate science at Stanford University. I found it a very revealing explanation for the confusion and continual disagreements about humanity's effect on the current changing climate.
Here's the quote:
"On the one hand, as scientists we are ethically bound to the scientific method, in effect promising to tell the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but — which means that we must include all the doubts, the caveats, the ifs, ands, and buts. On the other hand, we are not just scientists but human beings as well. And like most people we’d like to see the world a better place, which in this context translates into our working to reduce the risk of potentially disastrous climatic change. To do that we need to get some broad based support, to capture the public’s imagination. That, of course, entails getting loads of media coverage. So we have to offer up scary scenarios, make simplified, dramatic statements, and make little mention of any doubts we might have. This ‘double ethical bind’ we frequently find ourselves in cannot be solved by any formula. Each of us has to decide what the right balance is between being effective and being honest. I hope that means being both."
Regarding the problem of the 'average layman' understanding complex, scientific issues, a quote from Albert Einstein might be relevant.
"If you can’t explain something simply, you don’t understand it well.
Most of the fundamental ideas of science are essentially simple, and may, as a rule, be expressed in a language comprehensible to everyone.
Everything should be as simple as it can be, yet no simpler."
Crikey! I've mentioned the word 'political' in my post. Sorry! ;D
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If we have to blindly trust the experts, what need would there be for a second opinion?
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If we have to blindly trust the experts, what need would there be for a second opinion?
As always, you're free to seek out as many opinions as you like. No one is stopping you.
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Wow!! I'm very impressed.
"New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says the country has officially eradicated COVID-19 and will return to normal after the last known infected person recovered.
Isolation and quarantine for those arriving from abroad will continue.
Large public gatherings, such as concerts and sports events, will be allowed for the first time since March 23, when Ardern announced a nationwide lockdown amid a rising number of daily cases. Restaurants and public transport will also be allowed to resume normal operations."
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/06/08/871822321/with-no-current-cases-new-zealand-lifts-remaining-covid-19-restrictions
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Wow!! I'm very impressed.
"New Zealand Prime Minister Jacinda Ardern says the country has officially eradicated COVID-19 and will return to normal after the last known infected person recovered.
Isolation and quarantine for those arriving from abroad will continue.
Large public gatherings, such as concerts and sports events, will be allowed for the first time since March 23, when Ardern announced a nationwide lockdown amid a rising number of daily cases. Restaurants and public transport will also be allowed to resume normal operations."
https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/06/08/871822321/with-no-current-cases-new-zealand-lifts-remaining-covid-19-restrictions
This is not surprising at all. Countries that took the right precautions early on have seen success. The same thing is happening in Israel where they had an extreme lockdown and now hardly any cases and kids are back in school. Israel has a mandatory quarantine on visitors as well. the US could have done much better but people disregard public health measures. Here is an instructive survey of epidemiologists in the US about activities they would or would not undertake over the next year: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/08/upshot/when-epidemiologists-will-do-everyday-things-coronavirus.html
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As always, you're free to seek out as many opinions as you like. No one is stopping you.
I guess I didn't make my point clearly, Bob. If we trust experts blindly as was suggested, then we go to a doctor, he tells us what to do, and then we do it. No questions. But it doesn;t work that way. You question the doctor's advice. You wonder if he got it right. So you go to a second doctor because you don't trust the expert's advice. Then, the second expert tells you to do something different. Now you're really screwed. In the end, you listen to your wife, or a frriend, or heaven forbid, someone in the forums. It's the same with markets. One expert says it's going up, the other says its going down. Climate change. Covid 19. Diet. FIlm vs. digital. Canon vs. Nikon. Who's right? Who do you believe? Who do you trust? Who really knows what they're talking about?
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I guess I didn't make my point clearly, Bob. If we trust experts blindly as was suggested, then we go to a doctor, he tells us what to do, and then we do it. No questions. But it doesn;t work that way. You question the doctor's advice. You wonder if he got it right. So you go to a second doctor because you don't trust the expert's advice. Then, the second expert tells you to do something different. Now you're really screwed. In the end, you listen to your wife, or a frriend, or heaven forbid, someone in the forums. It's the same with markets. One expert says it's going up, the other says its going down. Climate change. Covid 19. Diet. FIlm vs. digital. Canon vs. Nikon. Who's right? Who do you believe? Who do you trust? Who really knows what they're talking about?
Alan, you've asked this question dozens of times. You seem to be alive and doing ok...so you must have followed someone's advice over the years. I personally trust my doctor's advice about my health much more than the kid at 7-11. I trust my machanics advice on my car much more than my bankers. I have no idea why you are so paranoid, but bottom line when shit happens, you have to trust someone and I always sway towards the experts in the field.
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This is not surprising at all. Countries that took the right precautions early on have seen success. The same thing is happening in Israel where they had an extreme lockdown and now hardly any cases and kids are back in school. Israel has a mandatory quarantine on visitors as well. the US could have done much better but people disregard public health measures. Here is an instructive survey of epidemiologists in the US about activities they would or would not undertake over the next year: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/08/upshot/when-epidemiologists-will-do-everyday-things-coronavirus.html
The poll was taken of 511 epidemiologists and infectious disease specialists who look at the world from a parochial point of view It is not a poll of the general public who might have very different opinions. I'd like to see a poll taken among the tens of millions of people who lost their jobs. How about asking a few economists what they thinks as well?
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Alan, you've asked this question dozens of times. You seem to be alive and doing ok...so you must have followed someone's advice over the years. I personally trust my doctor's advice about my health much more than the kid at 7-11. I trust my machanics advice on my car much more than my bankers. I have no idea why you are so paranoid, but bottom line when shit happens, you have to trust someone and I always sway towards the experts in the field.
I didn't say to get a second opinion about your car from your banker. Your twisting my words. The question is which of the experts within a field do you believe? The Canon experts or the Nikon experts? The investment company that tells you the market is going up or the one that tells your it's going down? We all listen to advice from various sources. We message that advice and use our own experiences and knowledge to discern what might be best for us. There are many roads to follow. No one has a monopoly on the truth or can divine the future.
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The poll was taken of 511 epidemiologists and infectious disease specialists who look at the world from a parochial point of view It is not a poll of the general public who might have very different opinions. I'd like to see a poll taken among the tens of millions of people who lost their jobs. How about asking a few economists what they thinks as well?
You're mixing apples and oranges.
If all the experts in a field, epidemiology say, agree on a set of best practices, that already represents the condensed opinions of thousands of people who make their living studying the stuff. But if you don't like the fact that they agree, if you think that's suspicious in itself, then no one can help you. Go watch all the youtube cranks you want. You should not confuse independence of thought with contrariness. When people independently study something, they often end up agreeing with others in their field. Sometimes the truth is just that.
That process has NOTHING to do with whether you want a second opinion about a specific health concern of your own. It also has nothing to do with being unemployed or which think tank economists work for. These are completely separate topics.
This latest discussion about that malaria drug has me completely baffled. From reading posts, it seems as if some people have some vested interest in wanting it to work. Why is that? Why does anyone care which drug works. The only important thing is to find drugs that DO work. Do you honestly think that researchers would keep the information from us if they found out it worked really well? Do you really believe there's a worldwide conspiracy to hide that. That's the equivalent of not believing the moon landing was real or that the earth really is flat.
Think for a minute, it would MORE difficult to fake a moon landing and keep it a secret than it is to actually fly to the moon.
Anyway, we've beaten this horse to death and beyond.
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You're mixing apples and oranges.
If all the experts in a field, epidemiology say, agree on a set of best practices, that already represents the condensed opinions of thousands of people who make their living studying the stuff. But if you don't like the fact that they agree, if you think that's suspicious in itself, then no one can help you. Go watch all the youtube cranks you want. You should not confuse independence of thought with contrariness. When people independently study something, they often end up agreeing with others in their field. Sometimes the truth is just that.
That process has NOTHING to do with whether you want a second opinion about a specific health concern of your own. It also has nothing to do with being unemployed or which think tank economists work for. These are completely separate topics.
This latest discussion about that malaria drug has me completely baffled. From reading posts, it seems as if some people have some vested interest in wanting it to work. Why is that? Why does anyone care which drug works. The only important thing is to find drugs that DO work. Do you honestly think that researchers would keep the information from us if they found out it worked really well? Do you really believe there's a worldwide conspiracy to hide that. That's the equivalent of not believing the moon landing was real or that the earth really is flat.
Think for a minute, it would MORE difficult to fake a moon landing and keep it a secret than it is to actually fly to the moon.
Anyway, we've beaten this horse to death and beyond.
Covid 19 is not just an medical issue. It is also an economic issue. Would you think we should just take a poll of expert economists as to what we should do to protect the economy? Or would you want to also include medical experts who would be concerned with protecting the health of the country. Both are important. The poll Alan G quoted only looked at one side of the issue. That's not an informed poll.
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Covid 19 is not just an medical issue. It is also an economic issue. Would you think we should just take a poll of expert economists as to what we should do to protect the economy? Or would you want to also include medical experts who would be concerned with protecting the health of the country. Both are important. The poll Alan G quoted only looked at one side of the issue. That's not an informed poll.
Why do you keep repeating the same statements? There are medical issues. There are economic issues. There's virtually NO ONE who does not understand this. The authorities in place, the people you elect, have been making decisions about these things all along in real time. Some go this way, some go that way. When it's over, you'll be able to go back and study what they did and which plans worked out best. How many more times does this need to be said.
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Why do you keep repeating the same statements? There are medical issues. There are economic issues. There's virtually NO ONE who does not understand this. The authorities in place, the people you elect, have been making decisions about these things all along in real time. Some go this way, some go that way. When it's over, you'll be able to go back and study what they did and which plans worked out best. How many more times does this need to be said.
No one gave economic considerations any weight early on. It was all medical. So now, to use a biased poll favoring keeping the economy shut down this late in the game requires an opposing position.
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This is not surprising at all. Countries that took the right precautions early on have seen success. The same thing is happening in Israel where they had an extreme lockdown and now hardly any cases and kids are back in school. Israel has a mandatory quarantine on visitors as well. the US could have done much better but people disregard public health measures. Here is an instructive survey of epidemiologists in the US about activities they would or would not undertake over the next year: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/08/upshot/when-epidemiologists-will-do-everyday-things-coronavirus.html
Alan,
As I understand, New Zealand began its nationwide lock-down on March 23 after a rising number of daily Covid-19 cases. New York, the epicentre of the US outbreak, began lock-down measures a day earlier on the 22 March.
The US implemented a restriction on foreign travelers who had been in China during the previous 2 weeks, on February 2.
The New Zealand Government placed entry restrictions on foreign nationals travelling from, or transiting through, mainland China, on February 3, a day later than the US.
Perhaps New Zealanders are just better-behaved than Americans. ;D
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No one gave economic considerations any weight early on. It was all medical. So now, to use a biased poll favoring keeping the economy shut down this late in the game requires an opposing position.
There is no mention in the article about keeping the economy shut down. Those polled were asked how they would personally behave in twenty different social circumstances now that the economy is opening up. One thing that is very helpful in determining whether a scientific article is true or not is actually reading it.
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If all the experts in a field, epidemiology say, agree on a set of best practices, that already represents the condensed opinions of thousands of people who make their living studying the stuff.
That would be a very strange situation, Robert, all the experts in a particular field agreeing. What sort of science would that be? Also, how could a layman be certain that there really was such a consensus? Because a journalist says so, or because one particular expert says so, in order to justify or add weight to his recommendation or authority?
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Alan,
As I understand, New Zealand began its nationwide lock-down on March 23 after a rising number of daily Covid-19 cases. New York, the epicentre of the US outbreak, began lock-down measures a day earlier on the 22 March.
The US implemented a restriction on foreign travelers who had been in China during the previous 2 weeks, on February 2.
The New Zealand Government placed entry restrictions on foreign nationals travelling from, or transiting through, mainland China, on February 3, a day later than the US.
Perhaps New Zealanders are just better-behaved than Americans. ;D
Using the 2017 population of 4.794 million people, the population density of New Zealand is approximately 46 people per square mile (18 people per square kilometer) which ranks New Zealand 166th in the world in terms of population density.
By comparison, about 1 in every 38 people living in the United States resides in New York City. New York has the highest population density of any major city in the United States, with over 27,000 people per square mile. There are 8 1/2 million New Yorkers, 60% more than the entire country of New Zealand. New Jersey, which also had a very high infection rate, has the highest population density of all 50 states. In 2018, the population density of New Jersey stood at 1,211.3 residents per square mile of land area. Many of its residents, my neighbors, work in NYC daily and like plague rats of the Middle Ages took the virus back to NJ to spread it around. :)
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No one gave economic considerations any weight early on. It was all medical. So now, to use a biased poll favoring keeping the economy shut down this late in the game requires an opposing position.
But they did. Several countries that implemented the lockdown later (say Spain, Italy, France, UK,Sweden) did so on account of concerns for the rise in unemployemnt, deficit, etc. They have suffered more in terms of deaths per million, and will end up facing also the economic crisis.
Other countries decided to implement a lockdown early, concurrent with some measures to mitigate the economic impact (companies that could use lay off schemes, postponing taxes, injecting money tohelp, etc). Such countries will also face the economic crisis, but haf fewer deaths, so populations are less traumatized. Which is good for economy.
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There is no mention in the article about keeping the economy shut down. Those polled were asked how they would personally behave in twenty different social circumstances now that the economy is opening up. One thing that is very helpful in determining whether a scientific article is true or not is actually reading it.
The poster used a slanted poll to argue for keeping the country shut down. While the epidemiologists were voting what they believed, the poll is biased because it's intent is to present only one side of the issue. I'll let readers here decide whether it was biased or not. I trust their judgment.
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But they did. Several countries that implemented the lockdown later (say Spain, Italy, France, UK,Sweden) did so on account of concerns for the rise in unemployemnt, deficit, etc. They have suffered more in terms of deaths per million, and will end up facing also the economic crisis.
Other countries decided to implement a lockdown early, concurrent with some measures to mitigate the economic impact (companies that could use lay off schemes, postponing taxes, injecting money tohelp, etc). Such countries will also face the economic crisis, but haf fewer deaths, so populations are less traumatized. Which is good for economy.
The poll's presentation just yesterday argued to continue the lockdown. You're arguing what happened months ago. Additionally, the poll and discussion was what American doctors thought.
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No one gave economic considerations any weight early on.
Nonsense. Everyone gave thought to economic considerations. That's how we ended up with companies implementing work-at-home, curbside pickup, continued access to grocery stores, and yes some places were closed. The economy was NEVER shut down, lots of people continued to work.
You deliberately mischaracterize everything. Please stop.
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Using the 2017 population of 4.794 million people, the population density of New Zealand is approximately 46 people per square mile (18 people per square kilometer) which ranks New Zealand 166th in the world in terms of population density.
By comparison, about 1 in every 38 people living in the United States resides in New York City. New York has the highest population density of any major city in the United States, with over 27,000 people per square mile. There are 8 1/2 million New Yorkers, 60% more than the entire country of New Zealand. New Jersey, which also had a very high infection rate, has the highest population density of all 50 states. In 2018, the population density of New Jersey stood at 1,211.3 residents per square mile of land area. Many of its residents, my neighbors, work in NYC daily and like plague rats of the Middle Ages took the virus back to NJ to spread it around. :)
Yes. Population density probably has a large effect on the spread of the virus. It's not just good behaviour. ;)
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Nonsense. Everyone gave thought to economic considerations. That's how we ended up with companies implementing work-at-home, curbside pickup, continued access to grocery stores, and yes some places were closed. The economy was NEVER shut down, lots of people continued to work.
You deliberately mischaracterize everything. Please stop.
Maybe in Canada where you live. But not here. Everyone was thinking about getting infected. No one really thought about the extreme damage it would do to the economy. The boosters of shutdown are to blame for much of the economic hardships. Trump complained breifly, then went along with it. You're trying to distract from their responsibility of that position. That's kind but without foundation.
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That would be a very strange situation, Robert, all the experts in a particular field agreeing. What sort of science would that be? Also, how could a layman be certain that there really was such a consensus? Because a journalist says so, or because one particular expert says so, in order to justify or add weight to his recommendation or authority?
Since when does best practices advice imply unanimous agreement. I don't know what you're talking about.
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The poster used a slanted poll to argue for keeping the country shut down.
Pure unadulterated bullshit. Here is what the poster said:
"This is not surprising at all. Countries that took the right precautions early on have seen success. The same thing is happening in Israel where they had an extreme lockdown and now hardly any cases and kids are back in school. Israel has a mandatory quarantine on visitors as well. the US could have done much better but people disregard public health measures. Here is an instructive survey of epidemiologists in the US about activities they would or would not undertake over the next year: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/08/upshot/when-epidemiologists-will-do-everyday-things-coronavirus.html"
Absolutely nothing, zilch, nada about keeping the country shut down.
So now we are at a place where not only do you not read the links in posts, you don't read the posts themselves.
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I guess I didn't make my point clearly, Bob. If we trust experts blindly as was suggested, then we go to a doctor, he tells us what to do, and then we do it. No questions. But it doesn;t work that way. You question the doctor's advice. You wonder if he got it right. So you go to a second doctor because you don't trust the expert's advice. Then, the second expert tells you to do something different. Now you're really screwed.
Not really. My recollection is that with your cancer you went to a third doctor until you found an opinion that you liked.
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Pure unadulterated bullshit. Here is what the poster said:
"This is not surprising at all. Countries that took the right precautions early on have seen success. The same thing is happening in Israel where they had an extreme lockdown and now hardly any cases and kids are back in school. Israel has a mandatory quarantine on visitors as well. the US could have done much better but people disregard public health measures. Here is an instructive survey of epidemiologists in the US about activities they would or would not undertake over the next year: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/08/upshot/when-epidemiologists-will-do-everyday-things-coronavirus.html"
Absolutely nothing, zilch, nada about keeping the country shut down.
So now we are at a place where not only do you not read the links in posts, you don't read the posts themselves.
I read his post very carefully. The text that I bolded is the poster's attempt to provide expert testimony from epidemiologists to continue the shutdown as much as possible. The underlined word "instructive" is his recommendation to do just that. Most people will understand that interpretation not yours.
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Maybe in Canada where you live. But not here. Everyone was thinking about getting infected. No one really thought about the extreme damage it would do to the economy. The boosters of shutdown are to blame for much of the economic hardships. Trump complained breifly, then went along with it. You're trying to distract from their responsibility of that position. That's kind but without foundation.
More unadulterated bullshit. The only place that occurred was in your mind.
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Not really. My recollection is that with your cancer you went to a third doctor until you found an opinion that you liked.
The went to three doctors. They all had different advice and procedures. Each of the three claimed their method was the best. But that's the point I've been making. Which expert does the layman believe or trust? The layman then goes to the non-expets like family and friends. Or intuits based on feelings and whether he like the doctor's smile or not. That's what the whole argument is about. I have no idea what point you're making. Maybe you can clarify.
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I read his post very carefully. The text that I bolded is the poster's attempt to provide expert testimony from epidemiologists to continue the shutdown as much as possible. The underlined word "instructive" is his recommendation to do just that. Most people will understand that interpretation not yours.
Nope. Keep trying. Maybe if you read it to yourself slowly out loud you might understand it.
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More unadulterated bullshit. The only place that occurred was in your mind.
Thanks for your thoughtful response.
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The went to three doctors. They all had different advice and procedures. Each of the three claimed their method was the best. But that's the point I've been making. Which expert does the layman believe or trust? The layman then goes to the non-expets like family and friends. Or intuits based on feelings and whether he like the doctor's smile or not. That's what the whole argument is about. I have no idea what point you're making. Maybe you can clarify.
Nobody I know behaves like that.
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The went to three doctors. They all had different advice and procedures. Each of the three claimed their method was the best. But that's the point I've been making. Which expert does the layman believe or trust? The layman then goes to the non-expets like family and friends. Or intuits based on feelings and whether he like the doctor's smile or not. That's what the whole argument is about. I have no idea what point you're making. Maybe you can clarify.
I concur with Alan when it comes to the doctors and their specialties and experiences. Many of them recommend what they always recommended, regardless of the patient's particular condition. I have personally experienced it in several situations. Once, I was having pain in my thigh, and my GP sent me to several specialists in a row - neurologist, sports doctor, rheumatologist, foot doctor. I got Xrays, CT scans, ultrasound, and blood tests. They couldn't diagnose the problem. I went also to three chiropractors, one wanted to crack my back, the second recommended spinal decompression table, and the third electric pulse stimulation. Rheumatologist advised to take Tylenol. Finally, I got to the orthopedic surgeon who diagnosed the hip as source of the problem. Hip replaced, problem solved, 2 months later I was driving, dancing and hiking.
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Les, What about canoeing?
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Les, What about canoeing?
The water is still too cold for swimming, and the mosquitoes too copious at this time. I'm thinking about selling my whitewater canoe, but I'll keep my flatwater canoe.
If you meant how does the hip behave in a canoe, that's not too bad. I change my position all the time when paddling - sitting, kneeling, kneeling on one knee or the other.
I find that now the tricky part comes when after several hours of sitting or kneeling, you have to land on some rocky shore and balance precariously, one foot in the boat and the other on some rock.
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The water is still too cold for swimming, and the mosquitoes too copious at this time. I'm thinking about selling my whitewater canoe, but I'll keep my flatwater canoe.
If you meant how does the hip behave in a canoe, that's not too bad. I change my position all the time when paddling - sitting, kneeling, kneeling on one knee or the other.
I find that now the tricky part comes when after several hours of sitting or kneeling, you have to land on some rocky shore and balance precariously, one foot in the boat and the other on some rock.
Good to hear you're getting around so well.
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A short TED talk (5 min) describing aspects of Corona viruses. I don't recall it being mentioned before, apologies if this is repeat, https://www.ted.com/talks/elizabeth_cox_what_is_a_coronavirus? (https://www.ted.com/talks/elizabeth_cox_what_is_a_coronavirus?).
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The Worldometer stats show a significant decline of new infections and deaths in USA and Canada over the last few days, but WHO reports a global increase.
The number of corona infections worldwide continues to rise significantly despite relaxation in Western Europe. Over the weekend, more than 136,000 cases were reported within 24 hours, more than ever in a day, said WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. He warned countries not to take precautionary measures because of falling infection rates.
More than 100,000 new cases have been reported over nine of the past ten days, Tedros said. In Africa, Central and South Asia, Central and South America and in some countries in Eastern Europe, the numbers continued to rise. Since the outbreak of the virus in late 2019, almost seven million infections and almost 400,000 deaths have been reported worldwide.
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The Worldometer stats show a significant decline of new infections and deaths in USA and Canada over the last few days, but WHO reports a global increase.
It seems like there is always a drop in reported deaths during the weekend. I guess people don't die as much on weekends.
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Since when does best practices advice imply unanimous agreement. I don't know what you're talking about.
I'm talking about your statement which I quoted in my reply, and will quote again, in case you missed it
If all the experts in a field, epidemiology say, agree on a set of best practices, that already represents the condensed opinions of thousands of people who make their living studying the stuff.
'All the experts agreeing' implies unanimous agreement, doesn't it?
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Covid 19 is not just an medical issue. It is also an economic issue. Would you think we should just take a poll of expert economists as to what we should do to protect the economy? Or would you want to also include medical experts who would be concerned with protecting the health of the country. Both are important. The poll Alan G quoted only looked at one side of the issue. That's not an informed poll.
Firstly, I never said it was an informed poll. It is a poll of epidemiologist who study disease spread and control for a living. You can make of that what you will. There is a published study today that says the US avoided 60 million cases of COVID-19 because of the lockdown. Let's take my estimate of the Case Rate Mortality of 0.4%. this means that the US did not see an extra 240,000 deaths. You might think that is a bad trade off and I might think it is a good one.
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"A constellation of emerging data supports this idea, including COVID-19 outcomes in men with prostate cancer and lab studies of how androgens regulate key genes. And preliminary observations from Spain suggest that a disproportionate number of men with male pattern baldness—which is linked to a powerful androgen—end up in hospitals with COVID-19"
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/06/why-coronavirus-hits-men-harder-sex-hormones-offer-clues
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Offtopic.
A short TED talk (5 min) describing aspects of Corona viruses. I don't recall it being mentioned before, apologies if this is repeat, https://www.ted.com/talks/elizabeth_cox_what_is_a_coronavirus ?rid=2Mm6En3gxNYS&utm_source=recommendation&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=explore&utm_term=watchNow.
Robert, whenever you post a link from somewhere, always remove everything that is after the "?". This is what social media companies use to track people with. They don't just track you, but everyone that clicks on that link must have gotten it from you so ...
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I apologise in advance if this finding has already been discussed! It is certainly the first I have heard of it.
"Coronavirus spread by people with no symptoms 'appears to be rare,' WHO official says"/u]
Surely this would be encouraging news?
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/08/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread-who-bn/index.html
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Offtopic.
Robert, whenever you post a link from somewhere, always remove everything that is after the "?". This is what social media companies use to track people with. They don't just track you, but everyone that clicks on that link must have gotten it from you so ...
Thanks, that was careless of me. I have edited the post.
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"A constellation of emerging data supports this idea, including COVID-19 outcomes in men with prostate cancer and lab studies of how androgens regulate key genes. And preliminary observations from Spain suggest that a disproportionate number of men with male pattern baldness—which is linked to a powerful androgen—end up in hospitals with COVID-19"
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/06/why-coronavirus-hits-men-harder-sex-hormones-offer-clues
This was noticed about eight weeks ago. There are clinical trials with female sex hormones going on right now to see if they have an impact on disease progression in men.
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I apologise in advance if this finding has already been discussed! It is certainly the first I have heard of it.
"Coronavirus spread by people with no symptoms 'appears to be rare,' WHO official says"/u]
Surely this would be encouraging news?
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/08/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread-who-bn/index.html
So which experts should we believe now?
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So which experts should we believe now?
Must...resist...
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Must...resist...
I'm not resisting anything. I'm staying locked up.
The reason I posted the article is that it appears from the WHO that asymptomatic infected people don't infect others. If that's true, then it goes against everything we've be hearing from experts that asymptomatic people are big spreaders of the disease. So which expert is right?
For the last few days, we've been discussing how the poor layman doesn't know who to believe. This is another example. First we don't need masks. Then we need masks. First we should be concerned about asymptomatic people. Now, well, it may not be important. What are regular people suppose to thnk and do? What are policy makers suppose to do? Everyone is guessing. Meanwhile the economies of the world are shut down. Companies are going bankrupt. Millions of people aren't making a living.
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I'm not resisting anything. I'm staying locked up.
The reason I posted the article is that it appears from the WHO that asymptomatic infected people don't infect others. If that's true, then it goes against everything we've be hearing from experts that asymptomatic people are big spreaders of the disease. So which expert is right?
For the last few days, we've been discussing how the poor layman doesn't know who to believe. This is another example. First we don't need masks. Then we need masks. First we should be concerned about asymptomatic people. Now , well, it may not be important. What are regular people suppose to thnk and do? What are policy makers suppose to do? Everyone is guessing. Meanwhile the economies of the world are shut down. COmpanies are going bankrupt. Millions of people aren;t making a living.
Must...resist...
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Must...resist...
Yes, like a record skipping over and over.
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So which experts should we believe now?
Did you read the article?
Maria Van Kerkhove, head of the WHO’s emerging disease and zoonosis unit, didn’t entirely dismiss the idea that people without symptoms can spread the virus. But she did say contact tracing research from around the world suggests that it’s much rarer than previously thought. “We have a number of reports from countries who are doing very detailed contact tracing,” Kerkhove said. “They’re following asymptomatic cases. They’re following contacts. And they’re not finding secondary transmission onward. It’s very rare.”
Sometimes you have to go beyond the headlines to find out what is going on.
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Did you read the article?
Maria Van Kerkhove, head of the WHO’s emerging disease and zoonosis unit, didn’t entirely dismiss the idea that people without symptoms can spread the virus. But she did say contact tracing research from around the world suggests that it’s much rarer than previously thought. “We have a number of reports from countries who are doing very detailed contact tracing,” Kerkhove said. “They’re following asymptomatic cases. They’re following contacts. And they’re not finding secondary transmission onward. It’s very rare.”
Sometimes you have to go beyond the headlines to find out what is going on.
You're an expert. You go beyond the headlines. The average person reads the headline and that's it. This only confirms my point. The public is confused because the news and advice are confusing and often contradictory. Arguing after the fact that average people should be scientists and read between the lines just proves that point. Also, there are cable videos that also repeated this new theory. There are no explanations to read that clarify anything. The poor public can't make heads or tails out of any of this. They're operating with fear on one side and contempt on the other. They're watching their jobs go down the drain and the ability to feed their families as ignorant policy makers use so-called scientific theories that appear to be mistaken.
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Must...resist...
Yes, please do―at least in this thread, which has been at least occasionally useful in providing information about the coronavirus. If the urge to challenge an outbreak of crazytalk becomes overwhelming (and, trust me, I quite understand why it may), my suggestion to all who might otherwise succumb to it would be to quote the portion of the post you want to challenge, but then move over to the "playpen" thread to actually post your response. That way we can confine the bilateral bickering and the inevitably growing cloud of confusion to a part of the forum that was explicitly intended to isolate it.
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You're an expert. You go beyond the headlines. The average person reads the headline and that's it. This only confirms my point. The public is confused because the news and advice are confusing and often contradictory. Arguing after the fact that average people should be scientists and read between the lines just proves that point. Also, there are cable videos that also repeated this new theory. There are no explanations to read that clarify anything. The poor public can't make heads or tails out of any of this. They're operating with fear on one side and contempt on the other. They're watching their jobs go down the drain and the ability to feed their families as ignorant policy makers use so-called scientific theories that appear to be mistaken.
Now is that an issue with the scientific community or maybe the media that likes to grab hold of a headline and sensationalize it. Maybe stop reading all the garbage the media or internet is feeding you.
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NYT: 12 minutes ago ..
The W.H.O. walked back an earlier assertion that asymptomatic transmission is ‘very rare.’
A top expert at the World Health Organization on Tuesday walked back her earlier assertion that transmission of the coronavirus by people who do not have symptoms is “very rare.”
Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, who made the original comment at a W.H.O. briefing on Monday, said that it was based on just two or three studies and that it was a “misunderstanding” to say asymptomatic transmission is rare globally.
“I was just responding to a question, I wasn’t stating a policy of W.H.O. or anything like that,” she said.
Dr. Van Kerkhove said that the estimates of transmission from people without symptoms come primarily from models, which may not provide an accurate representation. “That’s a big open question, and that remains an open question,” she said.
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Yes, please do―at least in this thread, which has been at least occasionally useful in providing information about the coronavirus. If the urge to challenge an outbreak of crazytalk becomes overwhelming (and, trust me, I quite understand why it may), my suggestion to all who might otherwise succumb to it would be to quote the portion of the post you want to challenge, but then move over to the "playpen" thread to actually post your response. That way we can confine the bilateral bickering and the inevitably growing cloud of confusion to a part of the forum that was explicitly intended to isolate it.
If the scientific information provided here is false or disputable, it should be answered here, not in another thread. Otherwise this thread devolves into a discussion where only one side of the "truth" is allowed to speak. The limitation is on political discussions. Scientific and economic discussions affected by COvid 19 are allowed.
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NYT: 12 minutes ago ..
The W.H.O. walked back an earlier assertion that asymptomatic transmission is ‘very rare.’
A top expert at the World Health Organization on Tuesday walked back her earlier assertion that transmission of the coronavirus by people who do not have symptoms is “very rare.”
Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, who made the original comment at a W.H.O. briefing on Monday, said that it was based on just two or three studies and that it was a “misunderstanding” to say asymptomatic transmission is rare globally.
“I was just responding to a question, I wasn’t stating a policy of W.H.O. or anything like that,” she said.
Dr. Van Kerkhove said that the estimates of transmission from people without symptoms come primarily from models, which may not provide an accurate representation. “That’s a big open question, and that remains an open question,” she said.
Coincidentally, my wife, who knew nothing about the discussion we were having in the forum, confirmed my point to me a few minutes ago when she saw the WHO representation and retractions on TV, "How do they expect us to know what to do if they keep changing their minds?"
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Firstly, I never said it was an informed poll. It is a poll of epidemiologist who study disease spread and control for a living. You can make of that what you will. There is a published study today that says the US avoided 60 million cases of COVID-19 because of the lockdown. Let's take my estimate of the Case Rate Mortality of 0.4%. this means that the US did not see an extra 240,000 deaths. You might think that is a bad trade off and I might think it is a good one.
That's consistent with other studies I have read about in Europe, some claiming that the lock down contributed to reduce the number of casualties by a factor up to 4.
If you compare Sweden and Denmark the ratio is higher than 3.
At the same time the economic impact is nearly identical between these 2 countries, which supports the theory the economic impact results from the pandemic itself and not of the lockdown.
Cheers,
Bernard
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Coincidentally, my wife, who knew nothing about the discussion we were having in the forum, confirmed my point to me a few minutes ago when she saw the WHO representation and retractions on TV, "How do they expect us to know what to do if they keep changing their minds?"
Only the serious and dedicated followers of the news notice the discrepancies. The remaining readers remember only the latest announcements and tweets.
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Interactive Coronavirus (Covid-19) Travel Regulations Map on the IATA website
Detailed country by country :
https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm
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Only the serious and dedicated followers of the news notice the discrepancies. The remaining readers remember only the latest announcements and tweets.
But policy makers follow the news and base important decisions that affect the everyday actions of their communities including the shutdown and opening of economic activities. Regular people including those who don't even read anything get their beliefs from listening to their leaders.
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Greece's main indistry is tourism. That may account for the draconian fine and shutdown of the restaurant. No one's going to vacation there if they think it's unsafe.
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You're an expert. You go beyond the headlines.
There is no escape from this, if you want a thorough understanding you have to go beyond the headlines. If the subject is beyond your expertise you have to enlist the help of "experts". If you persist in believing that all "experts" are suspect, you will subject yourself to a lot of unresolvable stress. As a start, my first advice is to stop reading every bit of news and speculation in scientific journals. It is ongoing research. Stop looking for the magic bullet, there isn't one.
There are early indications that cases, and maybe later deaths, may start to increase again after "re-opening". This may be because people are behaving as if it's all over and may be disregarding distancing guidelines. From the virus's point of view, things are not much different than they were 3 months ago. There is no vaccine yet, there is no herd immunity, there is a just a hope that with summer weather people won't be cooped up indoors as much, which may have an effect but it's foolish to hope that it's a game changer. There is no reason to think that.
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The New York Times published a well-researched piece today (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/10/world/coronavirus-history.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage) today comparing the number of excess deaths in various cities and regions during the COVID-19 pandemic with those during other disasters in the last 100 years.
For example, New York City, densely-populated and the busiest North American nexus for air travel from Europe, has so far experienced 5.8 times its baseline number of deaths during the current pandemic, compared to 1.05 times during a bad influenza season. The graphic attached below represents a small extract of the results of the Times' survey, which was compiled from data provided by various countries, cities, and academic institutions; the entire article, accessible at the link in the first paragraph of this post, provides much more detail.
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The New York Times published a well-researched piece today (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/10/world/coronavirus-history.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage) today comparing the number of excess deaths in various cities and regions during the COVID-19 pandemic with those during other disasters in the last 100 years.
For example, New York City, densely-populated and the busiest North American nexus for air travel from Europe, has so far experienced 5.8 times its baseline number of deaths during the current pandemic, compared to 1.05 times during a bad influenza season. The graphic attached below represents a small extract of the results of the Times' survey, which was compiled from data provided by various countries, cities, and academic institutions; the entire article, accessible at the link in the first paragraph of this post, provides much more detail.
Definitely shows how much more dangerous the Covid-19 virus is compared with the seasonal flu. Just imagine what those numbers would look like if lockdown measures were not taken.
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The New York Times published a well-researched piece today (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/10/world/coronavirus-history.html?action=click&module=Top%20Stories&pgtype=Homepage) today comparing the number of excess deaths in various cities and regions during the COVID-19 pandemic with those during other disasters in the last 100 years.
For example, New York City, densely-populated and the busiest North American nexus for air travel from Europe, has so far experienced 5.8 times its baseline number of deaths during the current pandemic, compared to 1.05 times during a bad influenza season. The graphic attached below represents a small extract of the results of the Times' survey, which was compiled from data provided by various countries, cities, and academic institutions; the entire article, accessible at the link in the first paragraph of this post, provides much more detail.
As a New Yorker and now living in New Jersey an hour away fro NYC, I'm of course concerned about the higher rate of infection and death in these areas. However, looking at only New York CIty distorts the fact that in the rest of the country it is not it as bad. NYC was the nexus of the Covid 19 disease in America. So the 5.8x for NYC compared to the 7.3 1918 Spanish Flu rate in Philadelphia seems to make Covid 19 almost as bad as the worst infectious disease in history after the Black Plague. That's a distortion of the damage.
But when you look at the figures for the whole country, about 28% of the population of 105 million Americans became infected with the 1918 Spanish flu, and 500,000 to 850,000 died (0.48 to 0.81 percent of the population). That's at least 5x as many deaths as Covid 19, or over 15x the rate based on population. We should look at it in that context as well to draw more accurate conclusions about the comparative effects.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Around_the_globe
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Definitely shows how much more dangerous the Covid-19 virus is compared with the seasonal flu. Just imagine what those numbers would look like if lockdown measures were not taken.
See my last post how statistics can distort the truth. You have to look at the figures on a country-wide basis. In 2017-2018 season, approximately 80,000 Americans died fom seasonal flu. It was a particularly bad year. Usually the figures are 12000 to 56000. Regardless, you have to look at figures overall to get more meaningful appraisals.
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As a New Yorker and now living in New Jersey an hour away fro NYC, I'm of course concerned about the higher rate of infection and death in these areas. However, looking at only New York CIty distorts the fact that in the rest of the country it is not it as bad. NYC was the nexus of the Covid 19 disease in America. So the 5.8x for NYC compared to the 7.3 1918 Spanish Flu rate in Philadelphia seems to make Covid 19 almost as bad as the worst infectious disease in history after the Black Plague. That's a distortion of the damage.
But when you look at the figures for the whole country, about 28% of the population of 105 million Americans became infected with the 1918 Spanish flu, and 500,000 to 850,000 died (0.48 to 0.81 percent of the population). That's at least 5x as many deaths as Covid 19, or over 15x the rate based on population. We should look at it in that context as well to draw more accurate conclusions about the comparative effects.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Around_the_globe
But surely the lockdown for the Covid-19 virus was much more extensive than the Spanish Flu and surely the medical system is much more capable today than 100 years ago.
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See my last post how statistics can distort the truth. You have to look at the figures on a country-wide basis. In 2017-2018 season, approximately 80,000 Americans died fom seasonal flu. It was a particularly bad year. Usually the figures are 12000 to 56000. Regardless, you have to look at figures overall to get more meaningful appraisals.
Those flu deaths are estimates by the CDC which many doctors dispute. There was an article by a doctor that conducted a survey amongst doctors throughout the USA and the majority of those doctors indicated zero patients dieing from the seasonal flu. Care homes do not have any lockdowns during the seasonal flu...yet I never heard of mass deaths in any care homes during the flu season. I've previously indicated that I have been involved with long term care homes for the last 5 years and don't recall any abnormal deaths during flu season. I discussed this with the manager of one of these long term homes and she indicated that the flu season does not really cause anymore deaths.
So there just is no real evidence that the seasonal flu deaths are as high as you indicate. There is no actual formal tallies of flu deaths so all we have is "expert" estimates and we all know how you feel about experts. Or maybe the experts are right when they back up your agendas.
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See my last post how statistics can distort the truth. You have to look at the figures on a country-wide basis. In 2017-2018 season, approximately 80,000 Americans died fom seasonal flu. It was a particularly bad year. Usually the figures are 12000 to 56000. Regardless, you have to look at figures overall to get more meaningful appraisals.
I would speculate that the lockdown reduced also number of flu deaths. OTOH, there was an increase of other deaths, caused indirectly by the pandemic and also by closing of medical offices, so the patients could not be treated and helped in the same way as in the previous years.
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See my last post how statistics can distort the truth. You have to look at the figures on a country-wide basis. In 2017-2018 season, approximately 80,000 Americans died fom seasonal flu. It was a particularly bad year. Usually the figures are 12000 to 56000. Regardless, you have to look at figures overall to get more meaningful appraisals.
Alan, can I respectfully suggest that you take your own advice?
The final figures for the 1918 Flu are in - of that we can be certain.
The final figures for the 2017-2018 flu are in and will not change.
The Covid-19 figures are not in yet - in fact, we might not be anywhere near the end, we might not even be in the middle of it. This has only gone on for nearly four months.
Yet, you continue to keep looking at the Covid figures "overall" while each day they keep getting worse with another 8 months to go, can't you see that?
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Yet, you continue to keep looking at the Covid figures "overall" while each day they keep getting worse with another 8 months to go, can't you see that?
You also have to factor in that we didn't have hydroxychloroquine for the Spanish flu. That would have been a game-changer.
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Those flu deaths are estimates by the CDC which many doctors dispute. There was an article by a doctor that conducted a survey amongst doctors throughout the USA and the majority of those doctors indicated zero patients dieing from the seasonal flu. Care homes do not have any lockdowns during the seasonal flu...yet I never heard of mass deaths in any care homes during the flu season. I've previously indicated that I have been involved with long term care homes for the last 5 years and don't recall any abnormal deaths during flu season. I discussed this with the manager of one of these long term homes and she indicated that the flu season does not really cause anymore deaths.
So there just is no real evidence that the seasonal flu deaths are as high as you indicate. There is no actual formal tallies of flu deaths so all we have is "expert" estimates and we all know how you feel about experts. Or maybe the experts are right when they back up your agendas.
So we should believe you and your manager rather than the CDC? So all the CDC research and statistics of cases and deaths due to the seasonal flu over the last ten years are bogus? Let's assume you're right. So then why should we believe anything that Dr. Fauci and his cronies at the CDC are telling us about Covid 19? If the CDC can continue come up with phony statistics year after year for ten years, why should we even trust them to boil a pot of water?
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html
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So we should believe you and your manager rather than the CDC? So all the CDC research and statistics of cases and deaths due to the seasonal flu over the last ten years are bogus? Let's assume you're right. So then why should we believe anything that Dr. Fauci and his cronies at the CDC are telling us about Covid 19? If the CDC can continue come up with phony statistics year after year for ten years, why should we even trust them to boil a pot of water?
You are right. There is no difference between estimates and phony statistics. And, like you, the CDC is the last place I would go for information on boiling a pot of water.
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What's interesting, I went through the yearly seasonal flu rates. Just like COvid 19, the highest rate of deaths were for those over 65 years old. So we knew that before Covid 19 outbreak. Yet, we didn't do anything to protect the most vulnerable or tell people they could expect that would be the age group where most deaths would occur. Also, did anyone realize this fact when they shut down the entire world's economies? I'm not saying we should not have made restrictions. But did anyone ever review this fact as part of their decision making? Why weren't we told by the CDC?
Here's the 2017-2018 season figures.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2016-2017.html
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So we should believe you and your manager rather than the CDC? So all the CDC research and statistics of cases and deaths due to the seasonal flu over the last ten years are bogus? Let's assume you're right. So then why should we believe anything that Dr. Fauci and his cronies at the CDC are telling us about Covid 19? If the CDC can continue come up with phony statistics year after year for ten years, why should we even trust them to boil a pot of water?
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html
CDC flu deaths are estimates...not actual counts and there are numerous articles that suggest these estimates are way over estimated. There is at least an effort to tally Covid deaths...even so I believe these tallies are low.
Alan, have you heard of long term care homes being overrun by the flu causing hundreds of deaths in them? If not, ask yourself why...after all it's these same patients in these care homes that died by the thousands from Covid...yet don't seem to be affected by the flu. How can that be if 80,000 people died from the flu.
And yes, I believe the data I've seen in the last 5 years along with the manager of one of these care homes...the flu death rate is no where near what the CDC estimates.
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What's interesting, I went through the yearly seasonal flu rates. Just like COvid 19, the highest rate of deaths were for those over 65 years old. So we knew that before Covid 19 outbreak. Yet, we didn't do anything to protect the most vulnerable or tell people they could expect that would be the age group where most deaths would occur. Also, did anyone realize this fact when they shut down the entire world's economies? I'm not saying we should not have made restrictions. But did anyone ever review this fact as part of their decision making? Why weren't we told by the CDC?
Here's the 2017-2018 season figures.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2016-2017.html
We knew from day one the most vulnerable were the elderly...it's a respiratory disease and the elderly are the most susceptible to respiratory problems. One of the first outbreaks in Seattle was at a nursing home in February. Now why they didn't lock these nursing homes down could be anyone's guess...maybe they thought "it will magically go away".
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In 2017-2018 season, approximately 80,000 Americans died fom seasonal flu. It was a particularly bad year.
Source?
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As a New Yorker and now living in New Jersey an hour away fro NYC, I'm of course concerned about the higher rate of infection and death in these areas. However, looking at only New York CIty distorts the fact that in the rest of the country it is not it as bad. NYC was the nexus of the Covid 19 disease in America. So the 5.8x for NYC compared to the 7.3 1918 Spanish Flu rate in Philadelphia seems to make Covid 19 almost as bad as the worst infectious disease in history after the Black Plague. That's a distortion of the damage.
But when you look at the figures for the whole country, about 28% of the population of 105 million Americans became infected with the 1918 Spanish flu, and 500,000 to 850,000 died (0.48 to 0.81 percent of the population). That's at least 5x as many deaths as Covid 19, or over 15x the rate based on population. We should look at it in that context as well to draw more accurate conclusions about the comparative effects.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Around_the_globe
So things can be even worse...how fortunate... anyway...
Covid 19 still kills 1000 US citizen a day and infects more than 20.000... numbers are not really going down in the whole of the US
We cannot look back at it yet.
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Source?
The CDC estimate of influenza deaths for 2017-18 is 61,000, not 80,000. The way you get 80,000 is you go to the chart, select the year with the highest number of estimated deaths, add 30%, and round up.
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What's interesting, I went through the yearly seasonal flu rates. Just like COvid 19, the highest rate of deaths were for those over 65 years old. So we knew that before Covid 19 outbreak. Yet, we didn't do anything to protect the most vulnerable or tell people they could expect that would be the age group where most deaths would occur. Also, did anyone realize this fact when they shut down the entire world's economies? I'm not saying we should not have made restrictions. But did anyone ever review this fact as part of their decision making? Why weren't we told by the CDC?
Here's the 2017-2018 season figures.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2016-2017.html
Here's an article from Scietific America that discusses death tallies from the yearly flu.
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths-to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/
"The 25,000 to 69,000 numbers that Trump cited do not represent counted flu deaths per year; they are estimates that the CDC produces by multiplying the number of flu death counts reported by various coefficients produced through complicated algorithms. These coefficients are based on assumptions of how many cases, hospitalizations, and deaths they believe went unreported. In the last six flu seasons, the CDC’s reported number of actual confirmed flu deaths—that is, counting flu deaths the way we are currently counting deaths from the coronavirus—has ranged from 3,448 to 15,620, which far lower than the numbers commonly repeated by public officials and even public health experts."
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CDC flu deaths are estimates...not actual counts and there are numerous articles that suggest these estimates are way over estimated. There is at least an effort to tally Covid deaths...even so I believe these tallies are low.
Alan, have you heard of long term care homes being overrun by the flu causing hundreds of deaths in them? If not, ask yourself why...after all it's these same patients in these care homes that died by the thousands from Covid...yet don't seem to be affected by the flu. How can that be if 80,000 people died from the flu.
And yes, I believe the data I've seen in the last 5 years along with the manager of one of these care homes...the flu death rate is no where near what the CDC estimates.
Like I said, if CDC has been getting it wrong for ten years, then why should we trust any recommendations they give about Covid 19? I'd rather trust you and your manager.
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We knew from day one the most vulnerable were the elderly...it's a respiratory disease and the elderly are the most susceptible to respiratory problems. One of the first outbreaks in Seattle was at a nursing home in February. Now why they didn't lock these nursing homes down could be anyone's guess...maybe they thought "it will magically go away".
Maybe Gov Cuomo knows the answer to your question.
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Source?
The source of the 80,000 dead was a periodical. I forgot to post it. But I see now that the CDC estimated 61,000 which I'd feel would be more accurate. Here are the CDC figures https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.htmlagain for the last ten years.
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The CDC estimate of influenza deaths for 2017-18 is 61,000, not 80,000. The way you get 80,000 is you go to the chart, select the year with the highest number of estimated deaths, add 30%, and round up.
Here's how the CDC figures influenza statistics.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm
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Here's an article from Scietific America that discusses death tallies from the yearly flu.
https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths-to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/
"The 25,000 to 69,000 numbers that Trump cited do not represent counted flu deaths per year; they are estimates that the CDC produces by multiplying the number of flu death counts reported by various coefficients produced through complicated algorithms. These coefficients are based on assumptions of how many cases, hospitalizations, and deaths they believe went unreported. In the last six flu seasons, the CDC’s reported number of actual confirmed flu deaths—that is, counting flu deaths the way we are currently counting deaths from the coronavirus—has ranged from 3,448 to 15,620, which far lower than the numbers commonly repeated by public officials and even public health experts."
So again, if the CDC is so wrong about seasonal flu, why should we trust them on Covid 19? You can't have it both ways. You can't knock them on their flu work and then use them to confirm your beliefs with their Covid work.
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Here's how the CDC figures influenza statistics.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm
Nice deflection but the link takes you to a textual description of how the CDC estimates annual influenza deaths. It doesn't corroborate the figure you posted of 80,000 for the year 2017-18. You just made that number up.
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Nice deflection but the link takes you to a textual description of how the CDC estimates annual influenza deaths. It doesn't corroborate the figure you posted of 80,000 for the year 2017-18. You just made that number up.
I don't lie. I'm surprised you would insult me like that. I read the 80,000 deaths on another site. Here it is. https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/
In any case, I changed death count to 61,000 based on CDC's own studies which also include a range of 46,000 tom 95,000 for that year. So the 80,000 falls into the CDC range as well. See the chart I posted above.
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I don't lie. I'm surprised you would insult me like that. I read the 80,000 deaths on another site. Here it is. https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/
https://forum.luminous-landscape.com/index.php?topic=134416.msg1159869#msg1159869
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https://forum.luminous-landscape.com/index.php?topic=134416.msg1159869#msg1159869
What's your point?
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So again, if the CDC is so wrong about seasonal flu, why should we trust them on Covid 19? You can't have it both ways. You can't knock them on their flu work and then use them to confirm your beliefs with their Covid work.
The CDC number for seasonal flu is an estimate. The Covid-19 deaths are actual deaths. There lies the difference.
Tell me Alan, have you ever heard of a long term care home lockdown due to the seasonal flu? If 80,000 people died from the flu and the majority of them were 65+'in age...surely long term care homes would be run over...yet no mentions of major lock downs. Does that seem odd to you? How many friends or relatives did you know over the last 20 years that died from the flu? Any? Again, does that not seem odd to you?
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Tell me Alan, have you ever heard of a long term care home lockdown due to the seasonal flu? If 80,000 people died from the flu and the majority of them were 65+'in age...surely long term care homes would be run over...yet no mentions of major lock downs. Does that seem odd to you? How many friends or relatives did you know over the last 20 years that died from the flu? Any? Again, does that not seem odd to you?
Actually, I've seen quite a few lockdowns due to flu in the long-term care homes. They used to call them quarantines, and usually they lasted 3-4 weeks.
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Actually, I've seen quite a few lockdowns due to flu in the long-term care homes. They used to call them quarantines, and usually they lasted 3-4 weeks.
Haven't seen a single lock down the last 5 years. Signage indicating to stay away if you are ill is the only thing I've seen.
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Lucky and healthy seniors in your area. In Toronto and some other areas of southern Ontario, it wasn't uncommon to hear of several such quarantines each winter. I didn't see the warning signs either, but heard it on the news or from friends who had relatives in the longterm care homes.
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The CDC number for seasonal flu is an estimate. The Covid-19 deaths are actual deaths. There lies the difference.
Tell me Alan, have you ever heard of a long term care home lockdown due to the seasonal flu? If 80,000 people died from the flu and the majority of them were 65+'in age...surely long term care homes would be run over...yet no mentions of major lock downs. Does that seem odd to you? How many friends or relatives did you know over the last 20 years that died from the flu? Any? Again, does that not seem odd to you?
I agree with you to a certain extent. But it again raises the question. If the CDC is so incompetent to provide silly flu statistics for ten years running, year after year after year, why should we trust them with anything else the say or do?
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Haven't seen a single lock down the last 5 years. Signage indicating to stay away if you are ill is the only thing I've seen.
The link to the CDC I posted above explains how many old people in assisted living care facilities and nursing homes get sick with the flu. They wind up in hospitals because they're having great difficulties breathing, or fever, or other issues caused by the flu and then die in the hospital of these causes. The death certificates don't mention the flu but rather pneumonia, cardiovascular issues, etc.
It seems that with Covid, its being tracked better. Also, flu I believe is spread out longer over about 6 months. The bulk of hospitalizations I believe were only a couple of months with Covid. Plus there were more people getting sick at one time in mainly one area (NY/NJ). Look, I'm not the expert. This is what the CDC says. So either the regular flu killed more people than we noticed. Or the CDC doesn't know what it's doing regarding their flu studies. Either way isn't comforting.
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I agree with you to a certain extent. But it again raises the question. If the CDC is so incompetent to provide silly flu statistics for ten years running, year after year after year, why should we trust them with anything else the say or do?
They are upfront with their estimates for the flu deaths...not hiding anything. Other things the CDC are involved with are more direct and not estimates. You can't put everything into the same pot.
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The link to the CDC I posted above explains how many old people in assisted living care facilities and nursing homes get sick with the flu. They wind up in hospitals because they're having great difficulties breathing, or fever, or other issues caused by the flu and then die in the hospital of these causes. The death certificates don't mention the flu but rather pneumonia, cardiovascular issues, etc.
It seems that with Covid, its being tracked better. Also, flu I believe is spread out longer over about 6 months. The bulk of hospitalizations I believe were only a couple of months with Covid. Plus there were more people getting sick at one time in mainly one area (NY/NJ). Look, I'm not the expert. This is what the CDC says. So either the regular flu killed more people than we noticed. Or the CDC doesn't know what it's doing regarding their flu studies. Either way isn't comforting.
What comfort are you looking for from the CDC regarding flu death rates? I don't understand you.
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The Covid-19 deaths are actual deaths.
That may or may not be so. Different countries report deaths in different ways. Some (the UK, for example) include deaths at home, that is, not in hospital or care home; others (France, for example) don't. Evidence for the cause of death can be scant to non-existent, and relaxation of the rules governing those who sign death certificates has allowed those with no medical qualifications at all to do it; yet once certified, the cause is virtually unchallengeable.
Take most figures with a large pinch of salt.
Jeremy
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That may or may not be so. Different countries report deaths in different ways. Some (the UK, for example) include deaths at home, that is, not in hospital or care home; others (France, for example) don't. Evidence for the cause of death can be scant to non-existent, and relaxation of the rules governing those who sign death certificates has allowed those with no medical qualifications at all to do it; yet once certified, the cause is virtually unchallengeable.
Take most figures with a large pinch of salt.
Jeremy
Very true. The most extreme example being my native Belgium that even counts deaths that are not proven to be covid19 related... those making up nearly 40% of the current count...
We are experts in country promotion! :)
We are convinced that being the most honnest will pay some day, that the world is going to follow us.
Cheers,
Bernard
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That may or may not be so. Different countries report deaths in different ways. Some (the UK, for example) include deaths at home, that is, not in hospital or care home; others (France, for example) don't. Evidence for the cause of death can be scant to non-existent, and relaxation of the rules governing those who sign death certificates has allowed those with no medical qualifications at all to do it; yet once certified, the cause is virtually unchallengeable.
Part of the difficulty is that pathology departments are over burdened right now and autopsy specimens are backed up. It took over two months to test samples in Santa Clara county in California and when they were tested, a death from unknown causes in early February was shown to have been COVID-19 related via viral testing. Certainly hospital deaths associated with a positive viral test can reliable be related to COVID-19 infection if the associated symptoms are related. My bottom line is the virus is here and we have to deal with it the best way possible.
Areas that have lax public health programs will continue to suffer. Israel opened all the schools two weeks ago only to have to close a number of them the other day because of COVID-19 infections: https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/06/03/868507524/israel-orders-schools-to-close-when-covid-19-cases-are-discovered I suspect that we will see the same thing happen over here this fall.
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So now I have another thing to worry about. I'm A+. Better to have O type blood. Apparently blood type affects vulnerability and death rates.
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/coronavirus-news-23andme-finds-more-evidence-that-blood-type-plays-role-in-coronavirus-2244091?amp=1&akamai-rum=off
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Part of the difficulty is that pathology departments are over burdened right now and autopsy specimens are backed up.
That may be the issue in the US and, if so, will permit retrospective correction of the numbers, up or down, on the assumption that whatever mechanism is eventually used to examine the specimens produces tolerably accurate results (which in vivo nasopharyngeal swabbing dismally fails to do).
It's not the case in the UK, however, where many of the certified deaths are no more than guesses by those with no ability to make even an educated guess, and where as far as I know no specimens have been taken from the individuals, ante- or post-mortem.
Jeremy
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Alan apparently wants a number from the CDC -- like, you know, 42,136 flu deaths. He won't get it. But the estimates are based on reasonable assessments of deaths, generally what are called "excess deaths" above the expected death rate minus what ever epidemic is being experienced. The Covid-19 deaths are "confirmed" in one way or another, and the "excess death rates" in the US have been reported for several different states and then reported in the newspapers (like the NY Times.) The excess death rates in the US areas sampled during the Covid-19 epidemic are generally in excess of the reported rate although in some states, (Montana is one, if I remember correctly) the low number of Covid-19 cases, combined with a lockdown that limited alcohol and driving, produced a death rate lower than expected.
Edit: here's one such story from WAPO.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/investigations/coronavirus-excess-deaths-may/
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Alan apparently wants a number from the CDC -- like, you know, 42,136 flu deaths. He won't get it. But the estimates are based on reasonable assessments of deaths, generally what are called "excess deaths" above the expected death rate minus what ever epidemic is being experienced. The Covid-19 deaths are "confirmed" in one way or another, and the "excess death rates" in the US have been reported for several different states and then reported in the newspapers (like the NY Times.) The excess death rates in the US areas sampled during the Covid-19 epidemic are generally in excess of the reported rate although in some states, (Montana is one, if I remember correctly) the low number of Covid-19 cases, combined with a lockdown that limited alcohol and driving, produced a death rate lower than expected.
Edit: here's one such story from WAPO.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/investigations/coronavirus-excess-deaths-may/
Are you referring to me? I never said that. Apparently? Why are you making things up?
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Well, this is one problem it appears I don't have to worry about.
Popular blood pressure medicines do not put patients at greater COVID-19 risk, new study finds
https://news.yahoo.com/popular-blood-pressure-medicines-not-233005710.html
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Well, this is one problem it appears I don't have to worry about.
Popular blood pressure medicines do not put patients at greater COVID-19 risk, new study finds
https://news.yahoo.com/popular-blood-pressure-medicines-not-233005710.html
Why do you trust these experts? The scientific article has not even been peer reviewed.
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Well, this is one problem it appears I don't have to worry about.
Popular blood pressure medicines do not put patients at greater COVID-19 risk, new study finds
https://news.yahoo.com/popular-blood-pressure-medicines-not-233005710.html
Next week, another study will be released disputing this one.
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Next week, another study will be released disputing this one.
So far all the data supports this, so no, it's unlikely that next week there will be one with opposite findings.
The so called "contradictions" came from early theoretical scenarios that were not confirmed with data.
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Well, this is one problem it appears I don't have to worry about.
Popular blood pressure medicines do not put patients at greater COVID-19 risk, new study finds
https://news.yahoo.com/popular-blood-pressure-medicines-not-233005710.html
the group that did that research was started by my colleagues and I at PhRMA back in 2005-06. I was the project manager for it and made the presentation to the PhRMA Board for the first $20 million to get it started. To that point, I hadn't even asked my father for $500. The group morphed into what it is today, The Observational Health Data Sciences and Informatics (or OHDSI, pronounced "Odyssey") program is a multi-stakeholder, interdisciplinary collaborative to bring out the value of health data through large-scale analytics.
I still stay somewhat involved with them and it was the single best accomplishment of my working career.
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Well, I hope they're right.
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Human trials will begin this week of a candidate Covid-19 vaccine that could protect the British population from the disease for about £3 per person
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/human-trials-for-3-jab-expected-to-start-this-week-69xwqvzmk
Researchers at Imperial College London are seeking to harness a potentially powerful, but as yet unproven, technology. It could allow vast numbers of doses to be produced rapidly, using equipment bought off the shelf.
If it works, the team has pledged to make the jab available at the lowest possible cost in Britain and the developing world. It would be licensed to outside manufacturers via a so-called social-enterprise company called VacEquity Global Health (VGH), which would waive royalty payments. VGH is being supported by Imperial and by Morningside Ventures, an investment company run by the billionaire Chan family of Hong Kong.
The vaccine consists of about a thousandth of a thousandth of a gram of genetic material known as RNA, which would be injected into muscle tissue.
A litre could contain enough for 200 million people, Robin Shattock, a professor of mucosal infection and immunity at Imperial and the project leader, said. “It really is a tiny dose,” he said. “That’s very good from a safety point of view but also in terms of production — it makes it much easier to scale up.”
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FDA ends emergency use of hydroxychloroquine for coronavirus:
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/15/fda-ends-emergency-use-of-hydroxychloroquine-319872
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FDA ends emergency use of hydroxychloroquine for coronavirus:
https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/15/fda-ends-emergency-use-of-hydroxychloroquine-319872
This is meaningless as HCQ is an approved drug and doctors may prescribe it if they believe it will help their patients. Quite frankly, FDA should never have given the emergency use exemption in the first palce since it was a largely symbolic political decision without any scientific justification. It reflected poorly on the Agency.
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This is meaningless as HCQ is an approved drug and doctors may prescribe it if they believe it will help their patients. Quite frankly, FDA should never have given the emergency use exemption in the first palce since it was a largely symbolic political decision without any scientific justification. It reflected poorly on the Agency.
The FDA has many times allowed unapproved drugs to be used because of political pressure from the people even though there's no or little scientific justification to use these drugs. Patients argue that it's their choice. They shouldn't be prevented from using these drugs on the outside chance it may help them especially drugs that have had little baleful effects for decades. So the FDA bowed to the pressure in those cases as well. In this case it was the president who made the case as a citizen and the president. It wasn't as if he didn't treat himself. He put himself on the firing line and used it. Also, CDC and the FDA are in the Executive Branch and report to the President who responds to the people who vote for him. While I agree most of their work should be relatively independent, in the end they too report to the people just as all the other organs of government.
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N.J. coronavirus reopening Stage 2 starts today. Here are all the details and restrictions.
https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/06/nj-coronavirus-reopening-stage-2-starts-today-here-are-all-details-and-restrictions.html
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The FDA has many times allowed unapproved drugs to be used because of political pressure from the people even though there's no or little scientific justification to use these drugs. Patients argue that it's their choice.
You are missing the point. Both chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine are approved drugs. Any FDA approved drug may be prescribed for a condition that it is not approved for and it will be dispensed. the only exceptions are narcotics classified as such by the Drug Enforcement Administration. FDA never had to issue the Emergency Use Exemption for the two malaria drugs as doctors were already prescribing them.
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Imperial College London update:
Rather than giving people a weakened form of the illness, the Imperial vaccine instead uses synthetic strands of genetic code based on the genetic material of Sars-CoV-2, the “novel coronavirus” responsible for the pandemic.
Robin Shattock, the Imperial College London professor leading its development, has told Bloomberg that early protective vaccines might not completely stop a person contracting the virus. “Is that protection against infection? Is it protection against illness? Is it protection against severe disease? It’s quite possible a vaccine that only protects against severe disease would be very useful.”
When injected, the Imperial experimental vaccine instructs muscle cells to produce virus proteins to protect against future infection. In animal tests, the vaccine was shown to be safe and showed “encouraging signs of an effective immune response”, Shattock’s team said.
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Not sure if this has been reported here previously. BBC article, Dexamethasone is first life-saving coronavirus drug.
Dexamethasone (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-53061281)
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Not sure if this has been reported here previously. BBC article, Dexamethasone is first life-saving coronavirus drug.
Correct! It was a very robust trial as well. https://www.recoverytrial.net/files/recovery_dexamethasone_statement_160620_final.pdf It should now be the standard of care for those on oxygen or ventilation. It does not have any effect on mild COVID-19 cases.
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Reported in February by a Spanish team:
https://www.thelancet.com/pdfs/journals/lanres/PIIS2213-2600(19)30417-5.pdf
That paper is not describing the use of dexamethasone in treating covid-19 respiratory syndrome. Your post, before I edited it, was dangerously close to politics and should not have been re-posted (unnecessarily) here. Consider yourself warned.
Jeremy
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Correct! It was a very robust trial as well. https://www.recoverytrial.net/files/recovery_dexamethasone_statement_160620_final.pdf It should now be the standard of care for those on oxygen or ventilation. It does not have any effect on mild COVID-19 cases.
I hope they publish the entire thing sooner than later.
I think this exposed one of the failures in US, the lack of a organized research frame ready to go when a major issue like Covid starts. We had a lot of disparate efforts, many times duplicated. On this account UK seems to have done much better.
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That paper is not describing the use of dexamethasone in treating covid-19 respiratory syndrome. Your post, before I edited it, was dangerously close to politics and should not have been re-posted (unnecessarily) here. Consider yourself warned.
Jeremy
It doesn't mention covid-19 per se, but it does address a life-threatening complication of covid-19 that seems to be implcated in a large proportion of the fatality, so to pretend that the two are unrelated is not warranted.
https://www.health.com/condition/infectious-diseases/coronavirus/what-is-ards
The majority of people—about 80% according to research—only suffer mild symptoms with COVID-19. Others may require hospitalization—but for some patients, the new coronavirus can be deadly.
One life-threatening complication that can arise is acute respiratory distress syndrome, commonly referred to as ARDS. And new research from the JAMA Internal Medicine suggests that more than 40% of individuals in the study hospitalized for severe and critical COVID-19 developed ARDS—and over 50% of those diagnosed died from the disease.
February - Spanish team publish paper showing efficacy of a drug in treatment of ARDS
February to June - lots of people with COVID19 die with ARDS
June - British team issue press release showing efficacy of drug in treating patients with COVID19.
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I hope they publish the entire thing sooner than later.
I think this exposed one of the failures in US, the lack of a organized research frame ready to go when a major issue like Covid starts. We had a lot of disparate efforts, many times duplicated. On this account UK seems to have done much better.
I was thinking the same thing. Of course it's easier to run a large trial within the NHS system as opposed to the US where multiple sites would have to be set up. I wrote a short paper on this very point a couple of months ago and sent it around to some of my friends in the academic community. The problem is the all are invested in their own institutions and not necessarily looking at how to do large trials such as the RECOVERY trial in the UK. If you are interested the paper is on my COVID-19 site: https://agoldhammer.com/covid_19/
There was a good story in the Washington Post today about the value of wearing masks. https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/06/17/masks-salons-missouri/ discusses the hair salon where two workers were infected and potentially exposed scores of customers. By regulation they were all wearing masks and none of the customers came down with COVID-19.
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February - Spanish team publish paper showing efficacy of a drug in treatment of ARDS
February to June - lots of people with COVID19 die with ARDS
June - British team issue press release showing efficacy of drug in treating patients with COVID19.
The chronology doesn't come close to justifying your gloating comment, itself a politically-driven insult to the researchers at Oxford and elsewhere (who have actually contributed something other than nastiness) and betrays an alarming ignorance of the way in which scientific advances are based on earlier discoveries.
If I have seen further than others, it is because I have stood on the shoulders of giants.
Jeremy
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The chronology doesn't come close to justifying your gloating comment, itself a politically-driven insult to the researchers at Oxford and elsewhere (who have actually contributed something other than nastiness) and betrays an alarming ignorance of the way in which scientific advances are based on earlier discoveries.
If I have seen further than others, it is because I have stood on the shoulders of giants.
Jeremy
Noted that you have not actually said anything to refute my comments and posted only personal insults.
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Is it because you two share the same name?
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Is it because you two share the same name?
You'd better ask Roussak - he reacted to my posting a link to a relevant study with a string of personal attacks.
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Noted that you have not actually said anything to refute my comments and posted only personal insults.
There's nothing to say; you have misunderstood the medicine (there are numerous causes for ARDS), misrepresented the paper you cite and insulted the British researchers, all in the cause of being spiteful to Boris Johnson.
That's all there is to it.
Jeremy
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There's nothing to say; you have misunderstood the medicine (there are numerous causes for ARDS), misrepresented the paper you cite and insulted the British researchers, all in the cause of being spiteful to Boris Johnson.
That's all there is to it.
Jeremy
There you go again, more abuse, more accusations, no evidence provided or reasoned discussion attempted.
But let the readers make up their own minds. Let them look at the references I provided, and google the use of corticosteroids in treating Covid-19 patients, check out how long this drug has been used in Spain, and while they are at it maybe look at the UK press release ( https://www.gov.uk/government/news/world-first-coronavirus-treatment-approved-for-nhs-use-by-government ) and decide if it is balanced information or overblown jingoistic spin.
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Newsweek:
"Sweden's total number of coronavirus cases grew by more than 100 overnight Wednesday, making it the second most-infected country per capita in the world.
The Scandinavian country known for its light-touch approach to battling the pandemic reached 54,562 total cases Wednesday, according to covidgraph.com, which compiles current data from multiple government health agencies and universities across the world.
When adjusted to reflect Sweden's population of over 10 million, the country's total number of [deaths] currently sits at 5,334 — dangerously close to numbers in the U.S., which currently leads the world in total coronavirus cases and deaths."
The bracketed [deaths] I added for clarity.
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Sweden made a different plan with a soft lockdown and compared to the neighbour countries they have about 10 times more casualties and 10x more infections.
Today they have 1400 more infected people and the neighbours have about 10 ...
So it looks like they are the perfect example what happens if you do not apply a strict lockdown- as soon as possible.
Let it be a warning for the US and the UK. They were late with a lockdown and want to open up too soon.
The risk is the virus will linger on...
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If Covid comes back next year and the Swedes are protected better, it may turn out that their methods were better. It's too premature to assume outcomes.
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If Covid comes back next year and the Swedes are protected better, it may turn out that their methods were better. It's too premature to assume outcomes.
Well here's hoping we have a vaccine by next year. If not, I think the world will be in for some hurting including Sweden. It'll be the Spanish flu again...but with a much more interconnected world.
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Well here's hoping we have a vaccine by next year. If not, I think the world will be in for some hurting including Sweden. It'll be the Spanish flu again...but with a much more interconnected world.
I don't know if there will be a vaccine next year. Is there a vaccine for the common cold?
And I don't think that it will be like the "Spanish" Flu. That was a different time.
There was no easy communications then. My father told me that a newspaper arrived 7 days late in his town.
I expect that apart from the Americas perhaps the world will be back to a new normal shortly and we just live with it.
We haven't had a Covid death in Australia since May 23.
Provided these idiots stop protesting and breaking the rules it has already gone away to a manageable level.
I do think that it will be a different normal.
I am very sorry for those that have died but it may be a better normal.
Many jobs can now work from home, our education can be online, we are now making more things locally and the people want to buy things made locally.
There is a new thrust for skilled jobs.
Most families have probably seen more of their kids.
Here in Australia we may never make cars again, but I think there will be a viable manufacturing industry of some sort again.
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Well here's hoping we have a vaccine by next year. If not, I think the world will be in for some hurting including Sweden. It'll be the Spanish flu again...but with a much more interconnected world.
In a recent interview (https://www.statnews.com/2020/06/01/anthony-fauci-on-covid-19-reopenings-vaccines-and-moving-at-warp-speed/), Anthony Fauci, director of the U.S. National Institute for Allergy and Infectious Diseases, sounded fairly optimistic about having one or more vaccine candidates before the beginning of the new year, but cautious about predicting its or their effectiveness:
. . . Merck CEO Ken Frazier effectively questioned the assertion—which you have made—that we could have Covid-19 vaccines within 12 to 18 months. Merck has a ton of experience developing vaccines. Are you at all worried that expectations for the timeline to vaccines have been set too high?
I am not really very concerned about the timetable of this for the following reasons.
The general trend on the part of the pharmaceutical companies, because of the enormous investment that goes into the development of a vaccine, is that you don’t go to the next step until you’re fairly certain that the step you’re in is going to be successful. The other thing is you don’t start manufacturing anything until you have a pretty good idea that you have a successful efficacy signal. That protracts out the time frame. But what we’re doing is something that’s called developing “at risk.”
What it means is that at the same time you’re finishing your Phase 1 trial, you’re preparing your Phase 3 trial sites, which is very expensive, and then you’re starting to manufacture the vaccine even before you know it works. All of that cuts months off.
We’re now completing the Phase 1 [with the Moderna vaccine]. The initial data look very promising from the neutralizing antibody standpoint. And so they’re planning to start the Phase 3 in the first week or so of July. Not only with the Moderna vaccine, but also very likely with the AstraZeneca vaccine. And then as we get later into the summer, we’ll get the Johnson & Johnson in clinical trials.
You need a few months at least of having vaccinated individuals getting exposed. So let’s say it’s July, August, September, October. By November, you should have an efficacy signal.
If you do and you’re already manufacturing doses, by December and January, if you’re lucky and if in fact it is effective, you can have a significant number of doses available by the end of the year, the beginning of 2021. So I think it’s aspirational, but it’s certainly doable.
The only thing that’s the big unknown to me is that, is it going to be effective? I think we could do it within the time frame that I’ve outlined. But there’s no guarantee that it’s going to be effective.
And, of course, there's the enormous logistical challenge of making the vaccine(s) widely available, at an affordable price in less affluent countries, distributing it (or them), and actually vaccinating enough people to effectively snuff out the pandemic. As you suggest, in an interconnected world, that will be a daunting task.
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I don't know if there will be a vaccine next year. Is there a vaccine for the common cold?
And I don't think that it will be like the "Spanish" Flu. That was a different time.
There was no easy communications then. My father told me that a newspaper arrived 7 days late in his town.
I expect that apart from the Americas perhaps the world will be back to a new normal shortly and we just live with it.
We haven't had a Covid death in Australia since May 23.
Provided these idiots stop protesting and breaking the rules it has already gone away to a manageable level.
I do think that it will be a different normal.
I am very sorry for those that have died but it may be a better normal.
Many jobs can now work from home, our education can be online, we are now making more things locally and the people want to buy things made locally.
There is a new thrust for skilled jobs.
Most families have probably seen more of their kids.
Here in Australia we may never make cars again, but I think there will be a viable manufacturing industry of some sort again.
Much of the world is just getting into their first phase of the virus...look at the daily cases, never been higher. South America, South Asia...and who knows what is happening in most of Africa. i don't think anyone really knows what is in store going forward nor what this so called new normal will be.
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I don't know if there will be a vaccine next year. Is there a vaccine for the common cold?
And I don't think that it will be like the "Spanish" Flu. That was a different time.
There was no easy communications then. My father told me that a newspaper arrived 7 days late in his town.
I expect that apart from the Americas perhaps the world will be back to a new normal shortly and we just live with it.
We haven't had a Covid death in Australia since May 23.
Provided these idiots stop protesting and breaking the rules it has already gone away to a manageable level.
I do think that it will be a different normal.
I am very sorry for those that have died but it may be a better normal.
Many jobs can now work from home, our education can be online, we are now making more things locally and the people want to buy things made locally.
There is a new thrust for skilled jobs.
Most families have probably seen more of their kids.
Here in Australia we may never make cars again, but I think there will be a viable manufacturing industry of some sort again.
Many people like waiters, bar tenders, construction workers, manufacturing, etc, cannot work at home. There are going to be millions of people who will be out of work with no place to go for a long time, at least in the US. Skilled jobs will be important. People will have to up their game if they want to eat. While some families have seen more of their kids, we haven;t seen our relatives who live elsewhere. It's been especially hard on my wife and her 97 year old mother because her mom lives in an assisted living residence. And they have closed it down for months. We were there two days ago and saw her through the window. No one is allowed in. I haven;t seen my daughter in three months. Certainly there are going to be major displacements going forward for all of us.
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If Covid comes back next year and the Swedes are protected better, it may turn out that their methods were better. It's too premature to assume outcomes.
Not really. Estimates point to 7.5% of the population in Stockholm exposed to the virus. Very far from the herd immunity treshold.
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I don't know if there will be a vaccine next year. Is there a vaccine for the common cold?
And I don't think that it will be like the "Spanish" Flu. That was a different time.
There was no easy communications then. My father told me that a newspaper arrived 7 days late in his town.
I expect that apart from the Americas perhaps the world will be back to a new normal shortly and we just live with it.
We haven't had a Covid death in Australia since May 23.
Provided these idiots stop protesting and breaking the rules it has already gone away to a manageable level.
I do think that it will be a different normal.
I am very sorry for those that have died but it may be a better normal.
Many jobs can now work from home, our education can be online, we are now making more things locally and the people want to buy things made locally.
There is a new thrust for skilled jobs.
Most families have probably seen more of their kids.
Here in Australia we may never make cars again, but I think there will be a viable manufacturing industry of some sort again.
Unfortunately, some people do not take this seriously, not even after all the deaths and warnings. Just see what happenned in Naples after the tream win the Italian football cup.
Here in Portugal when 7June there was a party in Algarve where more than 100 people got together with baltant disregard for health guidance. After almost 2 weeks and more than 1,000 tests to party goers and their contacts, there are 70 cases so far.
Greater Lisbon area is still a source of concer, with around 250 - 300 cases a day. Despite that, UEFA decided to held the champions League finals here. Go figure.
The good news is that this second wave in Lisbon is not translating into deaths or ICUs.
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The US number are still rising in an almost linear way
the trend of last month;
casualties rise with 25.000 a month now 120.000 total in only 2.5 months
infections rise with 700.000 a month now 2.200.00 total in only 2.5 months
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New York Times article. You May Have Antibodies After Coronavirus Infection. But Not for Long.
You May Have Antibodies After Coronavirus Infection. But Not for Long. (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/18/health/coronavirus-antibodies.html)
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Not really. Estimates point to 7.5% of the population in Stockholm exposed to the virus. Very far from the herd immunity treshold.
The 7.5% is for the country overall. It's much higher in Stockholm, its major metropolis. So it will be interesting to see what happens next year. You're rushing to judgment.
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The US number are still rising in an almost linear way
the trend of last month;
casualties rise with 25.000 a month now 120.000 total in only 2.5 months
infections rise with 700.000 a month now 2.200.00 total in only 2.5 months
Maybe America is getting better prepared then others for next year if it comes back. Everyone's guessing which is the best policy medically. In the meanwhile, the economies of the world are taking a big hit that has its own negative effects. You're damned if you do and damned if you don't.
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The 7.5% is for the country overall. It's much higher in Stockholm, its major metropolis. So it will be interesting to see what happens next year. You're rushing to judgment.
No, it is Stockholm:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/21/just-7-per-cent-of-stockholm-had-covid-19-antibodies-by-end-of-april-study-sweden-coronavirus
Other sources point to similar figures.
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Maybe America is getting better prepared then others for next year if it comes back.
Nope.
Everyone's guessing which is the best policy medically.
Nope
In the meanwhile, the economies of the world are taking a big hit that has its own negative effects.
Obviously
You're damned if you do and damned if you don't.
Nope
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Nope.Nope Obviously Nope
Differing opinions is what makes a horse race. Thanks for your bet. :)
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Differing opinions is what makes a horse race. Thanks for your bet. :)
Truth is not a horse race.
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Truth is not a horse race.
So you're a prophet? You can divine the future six months and a year from now? Amazing! Any idea which stocks I should buy?
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So you're a prophet? You can divine the future six months and a year from now? Amazing! Any idea which stocks I should buy?
Well, when you say:
"Maybe America is getting better prepared then others for next year if it comes back. Everyone's guessing which is the best policy medically."
It is pretty clear that America will not be better prepared compared to others: death toll will keep rising significantly, economy will be as bad as other countries. If you mean immunity, no again. One thing might work there first, and that is getting to a good vaccine first.
If you aretaliking about America besides USA and Canada, then it is a disaster already - Brasil, Peru, and other countries.
And no one is guessing what is the best medical policy, the guidelines are clear.
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Well, when you say:
"Maybe America is getting better prepared then others for next year if it comes back. Everyone's guessing which is the best policy medically."
It is pretty clear that America will not be better prepared compared to others: death toll will keep rising significantly, economy will be as bad as other countries. If you mean immunity, no again. One thing might work there first, and that is getting to a good vaccine first.
If you aretaliking about America besides USA and Canada, then it is a disaster already - Brasil, Peru, and other countries.
And no one is guessing what is the best medical policy, the guidelines are clear.
They've recently discovered that parents who overprotect their children from dirt, bacteria, etc., wind up hurting them when they get older. Because they haven't developed antibodies when young, as adults they are opened to all sorts of infections that other adults can withstand because they were exposed to them when children. Allergies such as to peanuts is another malady that adults would avoid if they ate peanut butter when they were young.
The point is, immediate benefits don't necessarily mean long-term benefits. So called "experts" have been wrong about diets, food groups, and all sorts of medical issues that have affected health negatively. It takes a lot of hubris to think they have all the answers up front about a new virus and how it's going to play out in the future.
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They've recently discovered that parents who overprotect their children from dirt, bacteria, etc., wind up hurting them when they get older. Because they haven't developed antibodies when young, as adults they are opened to all sorts of infections that other adults can withstand because they were exposed to them when children. Allergies such as to peanuts is another malady that adults would avoid if they ate peanut butter when they were young.
And you believe the experts that propound this theory?
The point is, immediate benefits don't necessarily mean long-term benefits. So called "experts" have been wrong about diets, food groups, and all sorts of medical issues that have affected health negatively. It takes a lot of hubris to think they have all the answers up front about a new virus and how it's going to play out in the future.
And so the experts that propound the theory in the first paragraph which you agree with are also probably wrong, yet you believe them anyway.
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So you're a prophet? You can divine the future six months and a year from now? Amazing! Any idea which stocks I should buy?
Amazon and Adobe
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The 7.5% is for the country overall. It's much higher in Stockholm, its major metropolis. So it will be interesting to see what happens next year. You're rushing to judgment.
Where do you get your information from? Source that shows Stockholm infection rate is much higher. If just making things up...just stop.
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They've recently discovered that parents who overprotect their children from dirt, bacteria, etc., wind up hurting them when they get older. Because they haven't developed antibodies when young, as adults they are opened to all sorts of infections that other adults can withstand because they were exposed to them when children. Allergies such as to peanuts is another malady that adults would avoid if they ate peanut butter when they were young.
The point is, immediate benefits don't necessarily mean long-term benefits. So called "experts" have been wrong about diets, food groups, and all sorts of medical issues that have affected health negatively. It takes a lot of hubris to think they have all the answers up front about a new virus and how it's going to play out in the future.
Back to the experts being wrong paranoia.
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And you believe the experts that propound this theory?
And so the experts that propound the theory in the first paragraph which you agree with are also probably wrong, yet you believe them anyway.
You're right. The experts today could be proven wrong tomorrow. That's the main point. It takes a lot of hubris to assume you know what's going to happen a year from now.
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You're right. The experts today could be proven wrong tomorrow. That's the main point. It takes a lot of hubris to assume you know what's going to happen a year from now.
The thing I am right about is that your posts repeatedly demonstrate that you believe what you want to believe, and, for the stuff you don't want to believe, you trot out the experts have been wrong before excuse.
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The thing I am right about is that your posts repeatedly demonstrate that you believe what you want to believe, and, for the stuff you don't want to believe, you trot out the experts have been wrong before excuse.
Frank, I hate to break it to you. But everyone has their beliefs and trots out their experts to prove their points. You're no different.
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Frank, I hate to break it to you. But everyone has their beliefs and trots out their experts to prove their points. You're no different.
Naturally you did not read what I wrote.
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Naturally you did not read what I wrote.
Apparently, you didn't read what I wrote.
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how about both of you take this over to the politics thread..... ;D >:(
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(...)
It's not the case in the UK, however, where many of the certified deaths are no more than guesses by those with no ability to make even an educated guess, and where as far as I know no specimens have been taken from the individuals, ante- or post-mortem.
Whether or not that is accurate (it isn’t), the cross-check is to measure excess deaths in relation to earlier corresponding period(s).
(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/50025045552_8072c4ea86_o.jpg)
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Scroll down the FT page to see their country by country graphic.
The UK is shown as having +57% (64,200) excess deaths.
If the FT/John Burn-Murdoch ‘s estimates are correct, then it it would seem that, rather than being over-estimated, the UK is under-reporting Covid-19 fatalities.
https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441
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Whether or not that is accurate (it isn’t), the cross-check is to measure excess deaths in relation to earlier corresponding period(s).
What isn't accurate? Do tell.
"Excess deaths" is a crude, broad-brush measure, useful for the press. There's abundant evidence that terror of coronavirus infection has led to avoidance of medical treatment for more serious conditions, and hence to increased mortality from those conditions.
Jeremy
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They've recently discovered that parents who overprotect their children from dirt, bacteria, etc., wind up hurting them when they get older. Because they haven't developed antibodies when young, as adults they are opened to all sorts of infections that other adults can withstand because they were exposed to them when children. Allergies such as to peanuts is another malady that adults would avoid if they ate peanut butter when they were young.
The point is, immediate benefits don't necessarily mean long-term benefits. So called "experts" have been wrong about diets, food groups, and all sorts of medical issues that have affected health negatively. It takes a lot of hubris to think they have all the answers up front about a new virus and how it's going to play out in the future.
I thought we were talking about Covid-19, not peanut butter. Point is, even with uncertainties around the new virus, there are well known and established procedures that protect people from getting infected, reduce the number of deaths, and protect communities.
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"Excess deaths" is a crude, broad-brush measure, useful for the press. There's abundant evidence that terror of coronavirus infection has led to avoidance of medical treatment for more serious conditions, and hence to increased mortality from those conditions.
Jeremy
Not only the terror of coronavirus infection, but even more the rigid lockdown rules which prevent the doctors and other medical professionals from treating their patients.
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"Excess deaths" is a crude, broad-brush measure, useful for the press. There's abundant evidence that terror of coronavirus infection has led to avoidance of medical treatment for more serious conditions, and hence to increased mortality from those conditions.
Jeremy
If that is so, it is a side effect of the Corona virus.
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If that is so, it is a side effect of the Corona virus.
The cool thing about this here internet is that in a few clicks you can find analysis by folks who are actually experts in a field, and don't just pretend to expertise, hence in 3 clicks you arrive at an analysis of potential effects on excess death figures:
https://twitter.com/d_spiegel
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2295
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/analysisofdeathregistrationsnotinvolvingcoronaviruscovid19englandandwales28december2019to1may2020/technicalannex
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What isn't accurate? Do tell.
No, not in a non-political thread.
But, as you’ve raised the point, I’d remind you of your favourite QC, Jolyon Maugham, who took to task some regional health authorities for deliberately instructing medical staff to NOT cite Covid-19 as a cause of death, when one could possibly assign it to other causes.
Just one small example in a litany of ‘prima facie’ reports of political wilful manipulation.
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Jeremy,
Mindful that Covid-19 mortality is significantly correlated with vitamin D levels, I’m on a beach, thankfully with an iPad, boostin’ me Vitamin D.
Excellent therapeutic benefits. I’d encourage you to follow my example.
Manoli
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Jeremy,
Mindful that Covid-19 mortality is significantly correlated with vitamin D levels, I’m on a beach, thankfully with an iPad, boostin’ me Vitamin D.
Excellent therapeutic benefits. I’d encourage you to follow my example.
Manoli
On which topic ...
a video about the evidence for benefit of vitamin D ...
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qyMFsLFAE5o&feature=emb_logo
I'm looking forward to being on a beach as well - the reason I'm not is that there is a quarantine in place to prevent people from Greece bringing infection to the UK. Go figure.
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What isn't accurate? Do tell.
"Excess deaths" is a crude, broad-brush measure, useful for the press. There's abundant evidence that terror of coronavirus infection has led to avoidance of medical treatment for more serious conditions, and hence to increased mortality from those conditions.
Jeremy
But those deaths are still the result of the virus even if not directly.
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... there is a quarantine in place to prevent people from Greece bringing infection to the UK. Go figure.
That’s indeed an issue, but best discussed in the other thread as, from what I’ve been told, the issue in the UK is somewhat confused - 18 year old’s can’t yet go back to school but they can soon go to the pub ?
Not sure if that comes under damage limitation or science - but either way, someone please post in the political thread.
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The cool thing about this here internet is that in a few clicks you can find analysis by folks who are actually experts in a field, and don't just pretend to expertise, hence in 3 clicks you arrive at an analysis of potential effects on excess death figures:
https://twitter.com/d_spiegel
https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2295
https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/analysisofdeathregistrationsnotinvolvingcoronaviruscovid19englandandwales28december2019to1may2020/technicalannex
Jeremy,
thanks for posting those links.
Especially the last one is quite a comprehensive analysis of the possible reasons for deaths. I suspect, same pattern is occurring in many other countries.
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If that is so, it is a side effect of the Corona virus.
Of course; but an indirect effect, primarily caused by the reaction to the presence of the virus rather than by the virus itself. It will be interesting to see how the excess deaths figures pan out over the next year or so: last week (admittedly only a snapshot), the excess deaths figure for London was negative.
The BMJ paper is interesting and balanced. The ONS statistics cover a period ending at the beginning of May and are therefore of very limited value.
Maugham has his own, highly political, axe to grind. "took to task" is a valid description of his activity only if the allegations he was promulgating have some basis in fact.
Jeremy
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Let's hope it ends during the summer and doesn't come back in the fall in a different strain.
Doesn't look like the virus will end in the summer. Many USA states and some European countries are reporting an increase of infections. Some of the hot spots can be attributed to the recent mass gatherings.
The reproduction of rate of the novel coronavirus in Germany has jumped to 1.79, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) for public health said on Saturday, far above what is needed to contain the outbreak over the longer term.
Canada and USA are still just in the first wave of the pandemic which may last throughout summer. The second wave is expected in the fall.
We're pretending the virus is gone. That'll make it worse. The U.S. isn't ready for a 'second wave.'
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Doesn't look like the virus will end in the summer. Many USA states and some European countries are reporting an increase of infections. Some of the hot spots can be attributed to the recent mass gatherings.
In the US, it seems to be spreading mainly to areas that weren't hit earlier: the South and West. Meanwhile New York and New Jersey, which were hit hardest and earliest, are opening up. It seem to take around two months to go through the population and stable off. So that means that the new areas being hit now will be through the worse in August before the Fall season.
So then the question will be: will the virus come back in a new form and we start all over again? Or come back and start re-distributing through the population that wasn't hit before? Or just play out with minor quantities of cases? Or disappear entirely?
I could be describing the economy as well as the virus.
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Not only the terror of coronavirus infection, but even more the rigid lockdown rules which prevent the doctors and other medical professionals from treating their patients.
It's affecting the entire world.
Slowing the Coronavirus Is Speeding the Spread of Other Diseases
Many mass immunization efforts worldwide were halted this spring to prevent spread of the virus at crowded inoculation sites. The consequences have been alarming.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/14/health/coronavirus-vaccines-measles.html
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What isn't accurate? Do tell.
"Excess deaths" is a crude, broad-brush measure, useful for the press.
I disagree, it's not just useful for the press. Our national Central Bureau for Statistics (CBS) reports on it for general purposes, e.g. to signal Excess Mortality that exceeds the upper/lower confidence levels that follow from previous years.
One of the things we see is that the excess mortality, especially amongst the older segments of population, was followed by a lower than expected mortality. This probably indicates that some of those people died earlier than they would otherwise have, and already had a poor fighting chance.
There's abundant evidence that terror of coronavirus infection has led to avoidance of medical treatment for more serious conditions, and hence to increased mortality from those conditions.
Yes, sadly enough a number of those cases will also contribute to the overall mortality statistics, but not all in the short term excess mortality, but more spread out in time. Shorter life expectancy will reflect that if the numbers are large enough. There is not a single stastistical number that tells it all, so they need to be used in combination.
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So I am thinking about the thought process of the persons that decide not to go to the hospital. Are they saying I would rather stay at home and die than go to the hospital and be saved, but run the risk of catching COV19 and maybe dying from that instead? Seems irrational to me.
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In the US, it seems to be spreading mainly to areas that weren't hit earlier: the South and West. Meanwhile New York and New Jersey, which were hit hardest and earliest, are opening up. It seem to take around two months to go through the population and stable off. So that means that the new areas being hit now will be through the worse in August before the Fall season.
So then the question will be: will the virus come back in a new form and we start all over again? Or come back and start re-distributing through the population that wasn't hit before? Or just play out with minor quantities of cases? Or disappear entirely?
I could be describing the economy as well as the virus.
I think the reason why the New York area has seen a decline is because of the shutdown measures put in place...not because the "virus went through the area". Opening up in a stupid manner will just get you back to where you were before. You are seeing spikes in places like Florida because of their lackadaisical opening up process. The virus has not gone away and lays waiting for its opportunity to jump into new hosts. Present these opportunities and you'll see a spike.
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So I am thinking about the thought process of the persons that decide not to go to the hospital. Are they saying I would rather stay at home and die than go to the hospital and be saved, but run the risk of catching COV19 and maybe dying from that instead? Seems irrational to me.
I think they don’t appreciate the seriousness of their situation and so delay going to the hospital- maybe they have symptoms that they don’t recognise as being, say, cancer, and they don’t go to the hospital as they are concerned about catching the virus there due to inadequate infection control ( lack of PPE, testing etc).
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It seem to take around two months to go through the population and stable off. So that means that the new areas being hit now will be through the worse in August before the Fall season.
That is one of the most dangerous and misleading assumptions I’ve read.
Florida reported 94,000 Covid-19 cases on Saturday, up 4.5%, the most new cases for a single day. USA wide Covid-19 cases increased by 34,000 to 2,240,000, up 1.6% - the highest growth rate so far this month. (John Hopkins).
If the Florida count is accurate, then presumably the USA one is lagging (or else incorrect).
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I think they don’t appreciate the seriousness of their situation and so delay going to the hospital- maybe they have symptoms that they don’t recognise as being, say, cancer, and they don’t go to the hospital as they are concerned about catching the virus there due to inadequate infection control ( lack of PPE, testing etc).
Are doctors offices open in the U.K. ? Were they closed for a period?
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Florida reported 94,000 Covid-19 cases on Saturday, up 4.5%, the most new cases for a single day.
The 94,000 is the cumulative number. The daily number is around 3800, with 43 new deaths. Gov. DeSantis said the new cases were mostly among migrant workers living in close quarters. I am not sure why that should make anyone feel better about it.
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Are doctors offices open in the U.K. ? Were they closed for a period?
As far as I know GP surgeries stayed open but most if not all consultations were by phone or video. Dentists have been closed until very recently and still remain either closed or operating at reduced capacity. Hospitals cancelled whole swathes of procedures and e.g. bowel cancer screening was put on hold. These are just snapshots of things that I’m aware of.
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The 94,000 is the cumulative number. The daily number is around 3800, with 43 new deaths.
Thanks for the clarification.
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It seem to take around two months to go through the population and stable off. So that means that the new areas being hit now will be through the worse in August before the Fall season.
That is one of the most dangerous and misleading assumptions I’ve read.
Yes, of course. These are the kind of invented "facts" and unsupported predictions, devoid of any evidence or rational basis, respectively, that belong in the crazytalk ("playpen") thread.
But as Tony Soprano famously said, "whaddayagonnado?"
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Yes, of course. These are the kind of invented "facts" and unsupported predictions, devoid of any evidence or rational basis, respectively, that belong in the crazytalk ("playpen") thread.
But as Tony Soprano famously said, "whaddayagonnado?"
Covid may well become known as the stupid disease.
When people do what they are told to do and take basic precautions the risk is fairly low, and eventually it goes away.
When they don't then a lot of people die.
"whaddayagonnado?" - fine them heavily.
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Covid may well become known as the stupid disease.
When people do what they are told to do and take basic precautions the risk is fairly low, and eventually it goes away.
When they don't then a lot of people die.
"whaddayagonnado?" - fine them heavily.
Indeed, stupid is the right word. Here in Portugal, we have new 300+ cases a day for the past week. Reasons for such:
1. One party in Algarve where the rules (no gatherings of more than 20 people) were not followed. More than 100 people were in a closed space. Result so far: 70 infected. This is very bad for the region, that is trying to open up for tourism...
2. One focus of infection in a caring home in Alentejo - 62 infected thus far, some very old. Not good. I thought by now these cases in caring homes would not happen again.
3. Two days ago, a night party in a parking lot organized in social media brought together more than 1,000 people, near the beach where I live (Carcavelos), near Lisbon. Again, young people not following rules.
The young think they are immune to this disease, but hospitals are becoming crowded with new young patients as a result of these stupid parties.
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The young think they are immune to this disease, but hospitals are becoming crowded with new young patients as a result of these stupid parties.
And yet there has been no reported surge in cases in the UK following the very large BLM demonstrations in several towns and cities, at which "social distancing" was certainly not widely observed. Curious.
Jeremy
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And yet there has been no reported surge in cases in the UK following the very large BLM demonstrations in several towns and cities, at which "social distancing" was certainly not widely observed. Curious.
Jeremy
How long from infection to when a person is ill enough to go get checked out?
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And yet there has been no reported surge in cases in the UK following the very large BLM demonstrations in several towns and cities, at which "social distancing" was certainly not widely observed. Curious.
Jeremy
I think the same thing has been observed over here. There were very large demonstrations in Washington DC which is close to where we live. Lots of people and many not wearing masks. However, the demonstrations were outdoors and people were moving around a lot. The best way to measure things is by hospital visits and those have not risen much at all. Texas and Florida are almost at hospital capacity and in Texas one quarter of those requiring hospitalization are under the age of 30. So much for the young not being affected. Personally, I think indoor transmission of the virus is the key.
Michael osterholm who is a well known epidemiologist was on the radio the other day and said going to the beach is probably one of the safer things one can do.
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I think the same thing has been observed over here. There were very large demonstrations in Washington DC which is close to where we live. Lots of people and many not wearing masks. However, the demonstrations were outdoors and people were moving around a lot. The best way to measure things is by hospital visits and those have not risen much at all. Texas and Florida are almost at hospital capacity and in Texas one quarter of those requiring hospitalization are under the age of 30. So much for the young not being affected. Personally, I think indoor transmission of the virus is the key.
Michael osterholm who is a well known epidemiologist was on the radio the other day and said going to the beach is probably one of the safer things one can do.
Weren't a lot of people on the beach in Florida?
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Weren't a lot of people on the beach in Florida?
More than on some indoor gatherings. It's way more fun and much healthier.
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Florida Virus Spike:
In the last 4 days, each day ended with more than 3,000 new cases. A record-breaking 4,049 cases were reported on Saturday, 3,500 on Sunday, 3,822 were reported Friday and 3,207 on Thursday. In other words, the number of new cases that have been reported over the last four days constitutes nearly 15% of the state's total.
Taking at this time an extended vacation in southern Europe is not such a bad idea.
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And yet there has been no reported surge in cases in the UK following the very large BLM demonstrations in several towns and cities, at which "social distancing" was certainly not widely observed. Curious.
It totally baffles me, that with England still not out of a 3 month lockdown/quarantine, you would find that ‘curious’.
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It totally baffles me, that with England still not out of a 3 month lockdown/quarantine, you would find that ‘curious’.
Your bafflement would be alleviated if you were to take the trouble to read the post to which I responded. Paolo linked a surge in new cases in Portugal with attendance at a couple of parties. He may be correct to do so; but if he is, it is curious that very much larger gatherings have not led to a similar surge.
Jeremy
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Personally, I think indoor transmission of the virus is the key (...) Michael osterholm who is a well known epidemiologist was on the radio the other day and said going to the beach is probably one of the safer things one can do.
Thats the view from the majority in Southern Europe. A rule of thumb here is that, in an enclosed space:
• It would need a 5 minute conversation w/an infected person at a distance of 1m to be infected.
• A fraction of that if the person were to cough in front of you
• And were the person to sneeze - book a cab straight to the hospital.
The safety of the beach is not universally accepted here and mass gatherings are still ‘verboten’ Swimming pools remain closed. What is considered a very safe environment,though, is a beach with a ‘healthy breeze’ in the belief that strong winds disperse the droplets to a degree that eliminates much of the risk.
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Your bafflement would be alleviated if you were to take the trouble to read the post to which I responded. Paolo linked a surge in new cases in Portugal with attendance at a couple of parties. He may be correct to do so; but if he is, it is curious that very much larger gatherings have not led to a similar surge.
Anecdotal evidence shows that the sudden spikes/surges in new infections have a ‘lead-in’ time of some 4-6 weeks before an exponential rise takes hold. Germany and in particular Florida are cases in point.
With an incubation period of some 7-14 days, it would be unrealistic to have expected a surge purely on the basis of the BLM protests.
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And yet there has been no reported surge in cases in the UK following the very large BLM demonstrations in several towns and cities, at which "social distancing" was certainly not widely observed. Curious.
Jeremy
I don't know about the UK. What I know is what happening in Lisbon, two weeks after the opening of restaurants, bars, and shopping centers. Young people are getting together with no care for protection measures in those places, and the results are plain to see.
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Your bafflement would be alleviated if you were to take the trouble to read the post to which I responded. Paolo linked a surge in new cases in Portugal with attendance at a couple of parties. He may be correct to do so; but if he is, it is curious that very much larger gatherings have not led to a similar surge.
Jeremy
More data from Portugal released this morning:
1. Ages up to 9 - increase of 140% in new cases since reopening.
2. Ages between 10 - 30: 90% increase in new cases.
This surge in younger people was to be expected, but not so higher rates of increase. After all, younger people were home for 3 months, and have now been going out in large numbers, gathering in large crowds with disregard for health measures.
Hospitals in Lisbon at almost at full capacity, even though the cases are for the most part not serious, the danger is younger ones infecting older ones in their families. Losing control in identifying infection chains is the next step.
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More data from Portugal released this morning:
1. Ages up to 9 - increase of 140% in new cases since reopening.
2. Ages between 10 - 30: 90% increase in new cases.
This surge in younger people was to be expected, but not so higher rates of increase. After all, younger people were home for 3 months, and have now been going out in large numbers, gathering in large crowds with disregard for health measures.
Hospitals in Lisbon at almost at full capacity, even though the cases are for the most part not serious, the danger is younger ones infecting older ones in their families. Losing control in identifying infection chains is the next step.
That's very depressing. Dumping more stress on already overworked health workers is not what we need at the moment. They need some breathing space so they can resume normal health care duties and address the non-Covid backlog.
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That's very depressing. Dumping more stress on already overworked health workers is not what we need at the moment. They need some breathing space so they can resume normal health care duties and address the non-Covid backlog.
Indeed. As of today, commerce is back to closing at 8 pm, and gatherings over 10 people are again not allowed.
Thing is, just look at what happenned in Brussels, in the UK... total lack of respect.
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Indeed. As of today, commerce is back to closing at 8 pm, and gatherings over 10 people are again not allowed.
Thing is, just look at what happenned in Brussels, in the UK... total lack of respect.
How does closing at 8pm reduce the spread?
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More data from Portugal released this morning:
1. Ages up to 9 - increase of 140% in new cases since reopening.
2. Ages between 10 - 30: 90% increase in new cases.
This surge in younger people was to be expected, but not so higher rates of increase. After all, younger people were home for 3 months, and have now been going out in large numbers, gathering in large crowds with disregard for health measures.
Hospitals in Lisbon at almost at full capacity, even though the cases are for the most part not serious, the danger is younger ones infecting older ones in their families. Losing control in identifying infection chains is the next step.
After how long, Paulo?
Jeremy
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Indeed. As of today, commerce is back to closing at 8 pm, and gatherings over 10 people are again not allowed.
Thing is, just look at what happenned in Brussels, in the UK... total lack of respect.
How does Portugal expect to recover staying locked-up?
Bank of Portugal sees unprecedented Q2 GDP slide, 9.5% drop in 2020
Portugal’s economy could tank an unprecedented 15% in the second quarter due to the impact of the coronavirus, bringing the contraction this year to 9.5% –the steepest drop in nearly a century, the Bank of Portugal said on Tuesday.
https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/bank-of-portugal-sees-unprecedented-q2-gdp-slide-9-5-drop-in-2020
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How does closing at 8pm reduce the spread?
Less reason to stay out and gather. Fewer places to buy alcohol from and gather.
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After how long, Paulo?
Jeremy
Basically since full reopening 1st June.
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How does Portugal expect to recover staying locked-up?
Bank of Portugal sees unprecedented Q2 GDP slide, 9.5% drop in 2020
Portugal’s economy could tank an unprecedented 15% in the second quarter due to the impact of the coronavirus, bringing the contraction this year to 9.5% –the steepest drop in nearly a century, the Bank of Portugal said on Tuesday.
https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/bank-of-portugal-sees-unprecedented-q2-gdp-slide-9-5-drop-in-2020
Who talked about locked up? These return to stricter measures is in the 5 municipalities of the Lisbon area.
Commerce and bars/coffees close at 8 pm.
No gatherings over 10 people (back from 20). The police can now fine people.
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Who talked about locked up? These return to stricter measures is in the 5 municipalities of the Lisbon area.
Commerce and bars/coffees close at 8 pm.
No gatherings over 10 people (back from 20). The police can now fine people.
Curious. Are you retired, working, etc?
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The situation in China is getting dire. Allegedly, they don't have enough C19 patients to do any research.
China National Biotec Group (CNBG) has won approval to run a large-scale “Phase 3” clinical trial of its novel coronavirus vaccine candidate in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the company said on Tuesday.
China is seeking to trial potential vaccines overseas because of a lack of new patients at home.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-vaccine/china-to-run-human-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-in-uae-idUSKBN23U2H8
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The situation in China is getting dire. Allegedly, they don't have enough C19 patients to do any research.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-vaccine/china-to-run-human-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-in-uae-idUSKBN23U2H8
Better to experiment on others than your own people.
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A Visual Guide to the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus
Scientific American
”What scientists know about the inner workings of the pathogen that has infected the world”
https://www.scientificamerican.com/interactive/inside-the-coronavirus/
static version:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/a-visual-guide-to-the-sars-cov-2-coronavirus/
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Scientific American article by William Heseltine
The Risks of Rushing a COVID-19 Vaccine (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/the-risks-of-rushing-a-covid-19-vaccine/)
An effective COVID-19 vaccine also faces several hurdles beyond our control. The older we get the poorer our ability to respond to vaccines. Resistance to vaccination begins early at age 30 and becomes progressively more profound with time. That is especially troubling as those over 60 are the population most at risk. Vaccination of the elderly may sometimes succeed by administering repeated doses and by increasing the potency of the vaccine with powerful adjuvants. But these adjuvants can be especially risky for the very old.
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Virus Mutations Reveal How COVID-19 Really Spread (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/virus-mutations-reveal-how-covid-19-really-spread1/)
Globe-trotting humans were the culprits
The world struggled to understand how COVID-19 spread during the pandemic’s first four months, but genetic sequences of the coronavirus reported by laboratories tell the real story—when the virus arrived in each place and where it came from. The sequences, which advance from left to right in the graphic, show that the virus jumped from an animal to humans in China, humans transmitted it to one another within China, then people traveling from there spread it globally person to person. The virus had not mutated significantly as of March 31, 2020; human contact created the pandemic, not a wildly evolving pathogen. Mapping the spread also substantiates actions that could have best mitigated it: faster, wider testing in China; earlier, stricter global travel bans and isolation of infected people; and more immediate social distancing worldwide.
Excellent graphic at
https://www.scientificamerican.com/sciam/assets/Image/saw0620Gscipanzoom.jpg?w=690&h=460
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Curious. Are you retired, working, etc?
I am working, what has that to do with anything? Right now, the company I work for is under a mixed regime: 5 hours in the office, 3 hours at home, on weekly rotations.
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Virus Mutations Reveal How COVID-19 Really Spread (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/virus-mutations-reveal-how-covid-19-really-spread1/)
Globe-trotting humans were the culprits
Excellent graphic at
https://www.scientificamerican.com/sciam/assets/Image/saw0620Gscipanzoom.jpg?w=690&h=460
Thanks for sharing, quite interesting, even though not really unexpected? Air travel combined with lack of measures results in quick spread.
Now that the borders are opening (at least in the EU) in the race to attract tourists for the summer season, conditions are present to initiate another wave in the Autumn.
Governments never learn: in Portugal we are having a resurgence of cases in caring homes for old people (no learning from 1st wave?), we still do not have a smartphone based tracking app (someone in the data protection control body must be taking their time to decide), and there are no effective controls in airports, besides temperature measurement...
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Quite alarmingly, there are now many new outbreaks in a number of countries - Japan, Germany, several states in USA, and Brazil is getting worse. And that is still just the first wave. Meanwhile, Canada just ended the 15-week lockdown and is doing this week relatively well (yesterday we had 326 infections and 18 deaths).
The number of daily infections in Tokyo on Tuesday reached their highest level in nearly two months, while Anthony Fauci, the White House’s top infectious diseases expert, warned that the US was experiencing a “disturbing surge” in coronavirus cases.
Seven US states — Arizona, Arkansas, California, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas — reported a record number of coronavirus hospitalisations on Tuesday.
“This isn’t a second wave, but rather a continuation of the first,” said Connor Campbell, a financial analyst at Spreadex.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-european-markets-surge-in-infections-ftse-cac-dax-080024769.html
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Quite alarmingly, there are now many new outbreaks in a number of countries - Japan, Germany, several states in USA, and Brazil is getting worse. And that is still just the first wave. Meanwhile, Canada just ended the 15-week lockdown and is doing this week relatively well (yesterday we had 326 infections and 18 deaths).
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-european-markets-surge-in-infections-ftse-cac-dax-080024769.html
This is simply the result of the reopening. Many European countries have reopened (albeit in a phased way) since early May. With more people on the street, work, etc, it was already expected this resurgence. In Portugal initially we had localized surges in big logistical companies and distribution centres; followed by new surges due to large gatherings of young people with disregard for measures; and now new surges in caring homes.
In some countries, this reopening was coupled with several "crowded events" (political mostly) where the lack of care for health measures was evident. This has aggravated the situation. With the fierce competition for tourists, air travel will simply make things worse.
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I am working, what has that to do with anything? Right now, the company I work for is under a mixed regime: 5 hours in the office, 3 hours at home, on weekly rotations.
Knowing whether you work may put perspective on your beliefs. If someone isn't working at all, has lost their job, and doesn't know how they're going to pay rent and feed their family next month, they may have a different perspective on how quick the country shouldn't open up and get back to work. On the other hand, if you're like me and my wife, we're retired. We'll continue to get our Social Security and pension checks (I hope). So for us, we'll stay protected at home more and not want to take risks like a younger person with a family.
You didn;t indicate whether you continue to get paid fully as you were before.
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Quite alarmingly, there are now many new outbreaks in a number of countries - Japan, Germany, several states in USA, and Brazil is getting worse. And that is still just the first wave. Meanwhile, Canada just ended the 15-week lockdown and is doing this week relatively well (yesterday we had 326 infections and 18 deaths).
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-european-markets-surge-in-infections-ftse-cac-dax-080024769.html
On the other hand, as you argued previously, many other medical conditions are not being addressed due to the shutdown, and the economic situation is going to get worse the longer a country stays shutdown. So there's a tradeoff.
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I think, this time most countries are adequately prepared and have sufficient inventory of protective equipment, so they should be able to weather new outbreaks without any closures.
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Knowing whether you work may put perspective on your beliefs. If someone isn't working at all, has lost their job, and doesn't know how they're going to pay rent and feed their family next month, they may have a different perspective on how quick the country shouldn't open up and get back to work. On the other hand, if you're like me and my wife, we're retired. We'll continue to get our Social Security and pension checks (I hope). So for us, we'll stay protected at home more and not want to take risks like a younger person with a family.
You didn;t indicate whether you continue to get paid fully as you were before.
Of course it is a dire situation for many people. Comparing May 2020 with May 2019, there are more 100,000 unemployed in Portugal. tourism sector, especially in the Algarve, was severely hit. But this is a situation where the EU should put up or shut up, as all countries are getting hit.
I am getting fully paid as before.
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Of course it is a dire situation for many people. Comparing May 2020 with May 2019, there are more 100,000 unemployed in Portugal. tourism sector, especially in the Algarve, was severely hit. But this is a situation where the EU should put up or shut up, as all countries are getting hit.
I am getting fully paid as before.
Would you be so insistent on shutting down the economy and isolating people, as you have been, if you, God forbid, lost your job? Can you see where others less fortunate than you have a differing opinion?
I just learned that Europe may shut down travel from the US. How will countries like Portugal who rely on the tourism to a large degree deal with the loss of income? Also, it seems that Portugal like the US, is having its share of additional cases again and is not doing so well as you've been claiming. They're shutting down certain areas that's going to slow down business and tourism even more.
"6/23/2020 10:20 AM
Coronavirus in Europe: Germany and Portugal reimpose localised restrictions
Portugal reimposes restrictions in Lisbon region.
Lockdown restrictions to halt the spread of coronavirus have been reimposed in the Lisbon area in Portugal.
Just as its neighbours are opening back up in the hope of saving their tourism seasons, Portugal has been forced to take a step backwards from reopening, as it currently ranks second in the EU for the most new cases in per capita, according to data collected by AFP.
Restrictions have been reimposed in the Lisbon metropolitan area, which include: the banning of consumption of alcohol in public areas, the closure of terraces or cafes at 8pm local time, and the limiting of the size of rallies."
https://www.euronews.com/2020/06/23/coronavirus-live-spain-and-portugal-see-new-clusters-raising-second-wave-fears
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Would you be so insistent on shutting down the economy and isolating people, as you have been, if you, God forbid, lost your job? Can you see where others less fortunate than you have a differing opinion?
I just learned that Europe may shut down travel from the US. How will countries like Portugal who rely on the tourism to a large degree deal with the loss of income? Also, it seems that Portugal like the US, is having its share of additional cases again and is not doing so well as you've been claiming. They're shutting down certain areas that's going to slow down business and tourism even more.
"6/23/2020 10:20 AM
Coronavirus in Europe: Germany and Portugal reimpose localised restrictions
Portugal reimposes restrictions in Lisbon region.
Lockdown restrictions to halt the spread of coronavirus have been reimposed in the Lisbon area in Portugal.
Just as its neighbours are opening back up in the hope of saving their tourism seasons, Portugal has been forced to take a step backwards from reopening, as it currently ranks second in the EU for the most new cases in per capita, according to data collected by AFP.
Restrictions have been reimposed in the Lisbon metropolitan area, which include: the banning of consumption of alcohol in public areas, the closure of terraces or cafes at 8pm local time, and the limiting of the size of rallies."
https://www.euronews.com/2020/06/23/coronavirus-live-spain-and-portugal-see-new-clusters-raising-second-wave-fears
Sweden did not in theory shutdown but is still suffering the same economic issues. We've seen people refusing going back to work in pork processing plants as Covid spreads through them. Do you really think the economy would not be hit hard if we didn't shut down and say 500,000 people lost their lives?
Tell me, will you be going to Europe in the fall? Would you be comfortable doing so? I know I've put on hold any foreign travel until the world is immunized. Would you feel OK going on a cruise tomorrow?
I think the vast majority of people are still very leary going about business as usual.
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Tell me, will you be going to Europe in the fall? Would you be comfortable doing so? I know I've put on hold any foreign travel until the world is immunized. Would you feel OK going on a cruise tomorrow?
Yesterday
Europe, all of it, over 40 countries - 13,109 new cases and 522 new deaths. Spain, the former hot spot, for example had 2 deaths.
USA itself, 38,386 new cases and 808 new deaths yesterday.
I would look at a cruise say Australia , New Zealand, Pacific Islands but that won't be happening for some time as cruise ships are currently banned until September I think.
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Would you be so insistent on shutting down the economy and isolating people, as you have been, if you, God forbid, lost your job? Can you see where others less fortunate than you have a differing opinion?
I just learned that Europe may shut down travel from the US. How will countries like Portugal who rely on the tourism to a large degree deal with the loss of income? Also, it seems that Portugal like the US, is having its share of additional cases again and is not doing so well as you've been claiming. They're shutting down certain areas that's going to slow down business and tourism even more.
"6/23/2020 10:20 AM
Coronavirus in Europe: Germany and Portugal reimpose localised restrictions
Portugal reimposes restrictions in Lisbon region.
Lockdown restrictions to halt the spread of coronavirus have been reimposed in the Lisbon area in Portugal.
Just as its neighbours are opening back up in the hope of saving their tourism seasons, Portugal has been forced to take a step backwards from reopening, as it currently ranks second in the EU for the most new cases in per capita, according to data collected by AFP.
Restrictions have been reimposed in the Lisbon metropolitan area, which include: the banning of consumption of alcohol in public areas, the closure of terraces or cafes at 8pm local time, and the limiting of the size of rallies."
https://www.euronews.com/2020/06/23/coronavirus-live-spain-and-portugal-see-new-clusters-raising-second-wave-fears
If I had lost my job, I would have some support from the government, as many others had and are still having, via unemployment subsidies or temporary lay off schemes.
You seem to confuse "local restrictions" with lockdown, but I will not repeat myself over and over again. I already listed the measures imposed in Lisbon area which are only for 19 parishes (not sure how to translate "freguesias"). Comparing Portugal to what is happening in the USA is laughable. Portugal is top 5 in number of tests per 100,000 people in Europe, and we are not afraid or reimpose some restrictions.
As for tourism, yes, the impact will be heavy, as for Spain, Italy, France, Greece. Competition is fierce to attract tourists. Spain stopped reporting number of deaths until UEFA decided that the Champions League Final would be in Portugal... what a coincidence...
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Tell me, will you be going to Europe in the fall? Would you be comfortable doing so? I know I've put on hold any foreign travel until the world is immunized. Would you feel OK going on a cruise tomorrow
I'll be happy to go to Europe but not to the US. It remains to be seen whether USA'ns will be able to travel to Europe anyway.
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I'll be happy to go to Europe but not to the US. It remains to be seen whether USA'ns will be able to travel to Europe anyway.
Having had three trips cancelled already this year - India, Morocco and Greece - I'm desperate to travel. Trouble is I'm in a high risk category and therefore a degree of caution is called for.
We'll see.
Come on Oxford!!!
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An exceptional animated graphic comparing the global death count from various causes (https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/2645529/), produced using a data visualization tool (https://www.blog.google/topics/journalism-news/flourish-helps-journalists-create-easy-data-visualizations/) created for the news industry by Google.
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An exceptional animated graphic comparing the global death count from various causes (https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/2645529/), produced using a data visualization tool (https://www.blog.google/topics/journalism-news/flourish-helps-journalists-create-easy-data-visualizations/) created for the news industry by Google.
The deaths are terrible for the virus. But it's a deceptive graph. The Covid is showing actual increases on a daily basis. The totals for the rest of the diseases, all of them, are already inputted for the entire year and then the daily amount is figured divided by 385 days. So the relative diseases never change. They all stay the same length relative to each other and never changes the order. It's dramatic but creates a false presentation.. If they did the same method for another disease like let's say drowning, it would seem worse too as it climbed in the statistics. Why not just show the total amount in one line for Covid? It's bad enough.
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. . . it's a deceptive graph. The Covid is showing actual increases on a daily basis. The totals for the rest of the diseases, all of them, are already inputted for the entire year . . .
You misinterpreted it. It compares the number of deaths from all causes between January 1 and May 24, 2020. The bar for COVID-19 deaths is animated to allow the viewer to visualize the combinatorial explosion of SARS-CoV-2 infections.
The totals for the rest of the diseases, all of them, are already inputted for the entire year and then the daily amount is figured divided by 385 days.
No, the data for all causes are for the first 144 days of the year.
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An exceptional animated graphic comparing the global death count from various causes (https://public.flourish.studio/visualisation/2645529/), produced using a data visualization tool (https://www.blog.google/topics/journalism-news/flourish-helps-journalists-create-easy-data-visualizations/) created for the news industry by Google.
Thanks, that’s a really interesting way understand the explosion of this virus.
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You misinterpreted it. It compares the number of deaths from all causes between January 1 and May 24, 2020. The bar for COVID-19 deaths is animated to allow the viewer to visualize the combinatorial explosion of SARS-CoV-2 infections.
No, the data for all causes are for the first 144 days of the yearo
It's the same thing. So they took the total for the 144 days and divided by 144 or they took the 365 total and just showed the first 144 days. Either way you get the same effect. So the relative graphs for all the diseases except Covid never changes. Covid changes because they are inputting the daily quantities of actual deaths. The rest is a daily total average based on the 144 days. If they switched the method and listed actual daily changes for let's say drownings, you'd see it jump around too. It creates a false impression because the methodology for Covid is expressed differently than all the others.
There's another more glaring phoniness that I just noticed. At the bottom of the graph is a note: "*Except COVID, causes of death shown account for ~7% of global deaths annually"
So what they did is eliminate 93% of the worlds deaths by other causes. That puts Covid at the top of the graph because they eliminated those types of diseases on the graph. That's another distortion that makes it seem like Covid kills more people than any other disease, which is false. Lies, damn lies, and statistics.
Here are the diseases not shown on the graph that killed more people than any other disease on the graph including Covid.
First is worse. Covid not shown, statistics are for 2017.
Cardiovascular diseases
Cancers
Respiratory diseases
Lower respiratory infections
Dementia
Digestive diseases
Neonatal disorders
Diarrheal diseases
Diabetes
Liver diseases
Road injuries
Kidney disease
Tuberculosis
HIV/AIDS
Suicide
https://ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death
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Half of the suicides are just different endings of some of the other diseases listed above.
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Half of the suicides are just different endings of some of the other diseases listed above.
Don't understand.
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Don't understand.
If your cancer or hip pain become intolerable and you can't get the surgery for a year (Hip surgery waiting time in Ontario is now 14-16 months), you may decide to take different action than waiting.
OTOH, if it is dementia, you won't even notice.
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The New York Times has an interesting piece today (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/health/coronavirus-elevator-reopen.html?smid=em-share) on apportioning a scarce resource during the pandemic: elevators.
Employers and building managers are drafting strict rules for going up: severe limits on the number of riders (four seems to be the new magic number), designated standing spots to maximize social distance, mandatory masks, required forward-facing positions — and no talking.
Here in the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention plan to issue guidance on the safe use of elevators and escalators shortly, according to the Times.
“The good news is: If you don’t like small talk in the elevator, those days are over,” said Jonathan Woloshin, head of U.S. real estate at UBS Global Wealth Management’s chief investment office . . .
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The New York Times has an interesting piece today (https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/26/health/coronavirus-elevator-reopen.html?smid=em-share) on apportioning a scarce resource during the pandemic: elevators.
Here in the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention plan to issue guidance on the safe use of elevators and escalators shortly, according to the Times.
I have to go to my dentist in NYC and he's in an elevated building. That's one of my concerns. I'm not sure if I feel better with the new rules. I think I'll ask the elevator starter to let me take one of the elevators by myself. I shouldn't be too crowded especially in the middle of the day and now that many people are still not working. Going down, I could walk from the 8th floor. The whole thought of going to a dentist scares me what with the virus.
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Because of an odd circumstance (the need for lots of sanding of paint) I had a couple of dozen N95 masks sitting around before the pandemic started. They were two different designs, both N95. That got me wondering -- would it be possible to put together a *better* low-cost mask than N95? We're beginning to hear that masks can be quite effective, but most masks don't appear to me to be very good -- they're improvised layers of cotton or polyester that might slow down a persons sneeze and protect other people, but they don't seem likely to protect the wearing, s N95 masks do. At the same time, we're hearing that it's not that common to pick up the disease from surfaces (although it's still possible.) But it would seem that if we had really effective masks, and mandatory orders to wear them, we might actually be able to open safely.
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Because of an odd circumstance (the need for lots of sanding of paint) I had a couple of dozen N95 masks sitting around before the pandemic started. They were two different designs, both N95. That got me wondering -- would it be possible to put together a *better* low-cost mask than N95? We're beginning to hear that masks can be quite effective, but most masks don't appear to me to be very good -- they're improvised layers of cotton or polyester that might slow down a persons sneeze and protect other people, but they don't seem likely to protect the wearing, s N95 masks do. At the same time, we're hearing that it's not that common to pick up the disease from surfaces (although it's still possible.) But it would seem that if we had really effective masks, and mandatory orders to were them, we might actually be able to open safely.
But there lies the problem...people feel it's their right not to wear a mask. Funny I bet these same people use their seat belts when in a vehicle. Maybe if all prominent people would wear masks...things would be different.
I don't wear a mask when I can distance myself like walking the dog...but anywhere distancing is not possible, my mask comes on.
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I drove to the supermarket today to pick up food order by phone. Curbside pickup. Passed by a restaurant. Breakfast type place, very popular before. Loads of tables outside with people waiting to sit down, 6 feet apart. Eaters had no masks at least the ones sitting at the tables. Loads of traffic. Yesterday passed by expensive Chinese restaurant. All the tables were out in the parking lot about 1/3 full. But it was early Friday. Don;t recall if they had masks on. Most people moving around have masks on or put them on when they go into the stores. This is in central New Jersey about 50 miles from NYC. Things seem to be picking up.
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But there lies the problem...people feel it's their right not to wear a mask. Funny I bet these same people use their seat belts when in a vehicle. Maybe if all prominent people would wear masks...things would be different.
I don't wear a mask when I can distance myself like walking the dog...but anywhere distancing is not possible, my mask comes on.
You're the guy everyone else points their fingers at complaining, "Look. That guy's got no mask on." :)
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I drove to the supermarket today to pick up food order by phone. Curbside pickup. Passed by a restaurant. Breakfast type place, very popular before. Loads of tables outside with people waiting to sit down, 6 feet apart. Eaters had no masks at least the ones sitting at the tables. Loads of traffic. Yesterday passed by expensive Chinese restaurant. All the tables were out in the parking lot about 1/3 full. But it was early Friday. Don;t recall if they had masks on. Most people moving around have masks on or put them on when they go into the stores. This is in central New Jersey about 50 miles from NYC. Things seem to be picking up.
If the tables are at least 6' apart, the customers don't need masks. I would think the restaurant would require masks while waiting to be seated.
I wonder if any agency checks up on these restaurants to ensure proper procedures are being followed. My barber said he had a surprise visit from the government to verify Covid practices were in place and being followed.
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If the tables are at least 6' apart, the customers don't need masks. I would think the restaurant would require masks while waiting to be seated.
I wonder if any agency checks up on these restaurants to ensure proper procedures are being followed.
Where's that?
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For restaurants you'll need a special mask with an elliptical opening (about 2.5" x 1.5") in the middle of the lower part. After finishing the meal, you can use it as a napkin.
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Where's that?
British Columbia.
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The whole thought of going to a dentist scares me what with the virus.
The American Dental Association has come up with good guidelines for practice. I had my routine check up this past Wednesday. You wait in your car until they are ready for you. They do a temperature check and you need to complete a questionnaire about travel and illness before the visit (I did it on line). Hygienist and Dentist take all the necessary precautions.
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The American Dental Association has come up with good guidelines for practice. I had my routine check up this past Wednesday. You wait in your car until they are ready for you. They do a temperature check and you need to complete a questionnaire about travel and illness before the visit (I did it on line). Hygienist and Dentist take all the necessary precautions.
It's the last part that I don't trust.
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9585 new cases in Florida. No wonder the Europeans won’t let Americans in. Even Pinocchio Pence cancelled his campaign trip down there. It was supposed to be called The Great American Comeback Tour. Oops.
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It's the last part that I don't trust.
You should. Medical staff have been doing this germ stuff for at least 100 years. They train in it, develop routines in it. Surgery goes on every day, everywhere, and all before Covid-19 showed up.
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You should. Medical staff have been doing this germ stuff for at least 100 years. They train in it, develop routines in it. Surgery goes on every day, everywhere, and all before Covid-19 showed up.
Dentistry is different than surgery.
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9585 new cases in Florida. No wonder the Europeans won’t let Americans in. Even Pinocchio Pence cancelled his campaign trip down there. It was supposed to be called The Great American Comeback Tour. Oops.
The heaviest hit counties are Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade.
Is there any data on the hotspots and causes? Is it the tourists, elderly in the long term care homes, or certain occupations?
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Dentistry is different than surgery.
Nobody gets closer to your mouth than the dentist.
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Nobody gets closer to your mouth than the dentist.
Well, my wife. But I already did an antibody test on her.
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I hear that some wives use the opportunity to get farther from their husbands.
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I guess my wife is one of the unlucky ones.
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You should. Medical staff have been doing this germ stuff for at least 100 years. They train in it, develop routines in it. Surgery goes on every day, everywhere, and all before Covid-19 showed up.
Yep and if they'd infect someone and word spread...they would be out of business.
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Dentistry is different than surgery.
Well my dentist and assistants wore masks and gowns way before there was any pandemic.
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Mine has added full face shield over masks and glasses in addition plus a hepa vacuum spot tube (about 6 inch diameter) pulling from where i exhale.
What i hate is walking into a restroom and finding only the air blower hand driers. Talk about stirring up all of the virus and bacteria bits and blowing it into your lungs and face ! I don’t bother to dry my hands.
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Mine has added full face shield over masks and glasses in addition plus a hepa vacuum spot tube (about 6 inch diameter) pulling from where i exhale.
Yes, that is the same setup mine had. I think this is the standard recommendation from the ADA.
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I haven;t been there yet. But a month ago, my dentist told me he doesn't use the plastic shield because it would interfere with his light magnifier on his forehead.
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It's the same thing. So they took the total for the 144 days and divided by 144 or they took the 365 total and just showed the first 144 days. Either way you get the same effect. So the relative graphs for all the diseases except Covid never changes. Covid changes because they are inputting the daily quantities of actual deaths. The rest is a daily total average based on the 144 days. If they switched the method and listed actual daily changes for let's say drownings, you'd see it jump around too. It creates a false impression because the methodology for Covid is expressed differently than all the others.
There's another more glaring phoniness that I just noticed. At the bottom of the graph is a note: "*Except COVID, causes of death shown account for ~7% of global deaths annually"
So what they did is eliminate 93% of the worlds deaths by other causes. That puts Covid at the top of the graph because they eliminated those types of diseases on the graph. That's another distortion that makes it seem like Covid kills more people than any other disease, which is false. Lies, damn lies, and statistics.
Here are the diseases not shown on the graph that killed more people than any other disease on the graph including Covid.
First is worse. Covid not shown, statistics are for 2017.
Cardiovascular diseases
Cancers
Respiratory diseases
Lower respiratory infections
Dementia
Digestive diseases
Neonatal disorders
Diarrheal diseases
Diabetes
Liver diseases
Road injuries
Kidney disease
Tuberculosis
HIV/AIDS
Suicide
https://ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death
It seems, someone else just figured out the phoniness of this article and chart. But still agreed to it's accuracy. Amazing.
(https://healthfeedback.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/06/altogether-GBD-top-10-WHO2016-2048x915.png)
https://healthfeedback.org/claimreview/covid-19-is-among-the-leading-causes-of-death-worldwide-so-far-in-2020-but-beware-of-incomplete-graphs/
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A reasonable comparison of COVID-19 to other causes of death would be to compare the virus to other communicable diseases. Your stroke or heart attack isn't going to infect and kill someone else.
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A reasonable comparison of COVID-19 to other causes of death would be to compare the virus to other communicable diseases. Your stroke or heart attack isn't going to infect and kill someone else.
Certainly that is one comparison that could be made. But the chart and article we were discussing was comparing it to diseases that people die from.
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Certainly that is one comparison that could be made. But the chart and article we were discussing was comparing it to diseases that people die from.
Most people die of old age (not a disease by most definitions).
Most people die in bed. How relevant would that be in finding ways to avoid that????
Let's stay on the topic of science ...
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Certainly that is one comparison that could be made. But the chart and article we were discussing was comparing it to diseases that people die from.
You can compare COVID-19 deaths to anything that you like. You could compare the death rate to the number of people that die from falling off a cliff. However, I don't think that it would be very useful.
It's a virus that can be spread and therefore increase or decrease the number of deaths depending on actions that are taken to control it. If there is a useful purpose in comparing it with diseases that are not communicable, other than for purely statistical reporting, I'm open to being enlightened.
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So much for the theory that the virus will subside with the warmer temperatures. A record number of over 38,000 new cases was reached today in US. Thew good thing is that number of deaths is down. I suspect that many snow birds won't be flying this fall and winter southbound.
Confirmed coronavirus cases in the United States surpassed 2.5 million on Sunday as a crushing new wave of infections continued to bear down throughout the country’s South and West. Across the nation, more than 38,000 new daily cases were reported by 5:15 p.m. on Sunday.
Florida, Texas and Arizona are fast emerging as the country’s latest epicenters after reporting record numbers of new infections for weeks in a row. Positivity rates and hospitalizations have also spiked. On Sunday, Arizona (3,857) and Georgia (2,225) hit new one-day case highs.
Global cases of covid-19 exceeded 10 million, according to a count maintained by Johns Hopkins University, a measure of the power and spread of a pandemic that has caused vast human suffering, devastated the world’s economy and still threatens vulnerable populations in rich and poor nations alike.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/06/28/coronavirus-live-updates-us/
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It's a virus that can be spread and therefore increase or decrease the number of deaths depending on actions that are taken to control it.
That is the thing. It can grow exponentially if not controlled.
I was watching a news broadcast this morning about a spike in Texas. They said that they have "gone back to washing their hands". Is that serious? Did they ever stop? The US has passed another milestone, their death toll from WW1.
https://metro.co.uk/2020/05/30/graph-shows-how-quickly-coronavirus-became-worlds-biggest-killer-12780314/
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Most people die of old age (not a disease by most definitions).
Most people die in bed. How relevant would that be in finding ways to avoid that????
Let's stay on the topic of science ...
That's an interesting point, Bart. I was surprised when I first came across a comment some time ago, that old age was never mentioned on a death certificate as the cause of death.
Here's an article which addresses the issue.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/health/2017-06-14/can-you-die-from-old-age/8605896
"It is never old age alone that causes someone to die. Rather, it is the increasing likelihood of complications arising from the conditions that accumulate with age.
Doctors won't always know the precise cause of death in an elderly person because they may have overlapping conditions that interact in different and subtle ways, making it difficult to determine one official cause.
Doctors are less likely to carry out invasive testing that might uncover a specific cause in older people, compared with young, healthy patients.
In many cases, the death certificate will only say what is the most likely cause of death without necessarily having a specific or post-mortem proven cause of death," Dr Rosenfeld says.
Every death certificate, even when they don't know what it was, they would usually say heart attack, cardiac arrest. If it's an old person in a nursing home they probably usually say pneumonia."
This situation is very relevant for Covid-19 infections. The elderly are most at risk because of the comorbidity associations. There are probably thousands of elderly people who have been included in the Covid-19 death statistics, who would probably have died of other causes within a few days, or a few weeks, or a few months, as one or more of their other deteriorating conditions became fatal, even if they had not tested positive to Covid-19.
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So much for the theory that the virus will subside with the warmer temperatures.
That was always more a wish or a hope than a theory, but I know what you mean.
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There are probably thousands of elderly people who have been included in the Covid-19 death statistics, who would probably have died of other causes within a few days, or a few weeks, or a few months, as one or more of their other deteriorating conditions became fatal, even if they had not tested positive to Covid-19.
I appreciate the fact that you are making a conditional assertion by prefacing your statement with the word "probably". If you have underlying medical conditions such as hypertension, obesity, and high cholesterol and then die from a sudden heart attack, wouldn't you expect the cause of death to be listed as a heart attack? The underlying conditions are contributing factors not the cause.
The same holds true when death occurs from an infectious disease that attacks someone with serious existing health conditions. The fact that many elderly people have medical conditions that make them weaker or reduces their immune system's ability to resist a serious contagious disease doesn't alter the fact that the actual cause of death is the infectious disease. The underlying health conditions are contributing factors to the infection reaching a level where it becomes fatal. They don't become the cause of death as it is always unknown what their longevity would be were it not for the infection. Infections are capable of causing death in young, old, healthy, and frail individuals. When they do, they are listed as the cause of death.
On the other hand, I don't have any education in these things. I'm reasonably confident that trained pathologists and epidemiologists are better able to make those determinations than either you or I.
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If you have underlying medical conditions such as hypertension, obesity, and high cholesterol and then die from a sudden heart attack, wouldn't you expect the cause of death to be listed as a heart attack? The underlying conditions are contributing factors not the cause.
Doesn't everyone die after their heart stops beating, unless they are brought back to life with 'cardiopulmonary resuscitation', or very occasionally revive naturally in the morgue, or even in the coffin if their burial takes place quickly after they've mistakenly been pronounced dead? ;)
Everything is subject to 'cause and effect'. If a person is suffering from a heart condition, the causes of that condition have to be identified by the doctor in order for the doctor to treat the patient. If there are a number of contributing causes, which is often the case, it might not be possible (or practical due to lack of resources) to correctly identify which was the major cause of the person's heart attack which resulted in death.
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in Brazil they have lost their patience with the virus...
https://www.beeld.nu/LL/VID-20200624-WA0004.mp4
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Everything is subject to 'cause and effect'. If a person is suffering from a heart condition, the causes of that condition have to be identified by the doctor in order for the doctor to treat the patient. If there are a number of contributing causes, which is often the case, it might not be possible (or practical due to lack of resources) to correctly identify which was the major cause of the person's heart attack which resulted in death.
Let's say I have terminal cancer. And I am hit by a car and killed on the way to the hospital for treatment. The cause of death is the injuries caused by being hit by a car, not cancer, even though I would have died sometime down the road from cancer.
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Let's say I have terminal cancer. And I am hit by a car and killed on the way to the hospital for treatment. The cause of death is the injuries caused by being hit by a car, not cancer, even though I would have died sometime down the road from cancer.
It wasn't clear to me what point Ray was trying to make regarding Covid deaths; so I gave up. How the virus kills is clear. It attacks the lungs, reducing oxygen supply to the body. Doctors, pathologists, and medical examiners generally are not going to have much difficulty determining cause of death as they chart the fall of oxygen levels.
Death is often the result of acute respiratory distress. In the worst case scenarios, death occurs slowly as the virus reduces oxygen supply from the lungs to the organs resulting in the gradual failure of multiple organs prior to death. It's a very very ugly disease and depending on the severity of the infection is quite capable of killing young healthy individuals.
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It wasn't clear to me what point Ray was trying to make regarding Covid deaths; so I gave up. How the virus kills is clear. It attacks the lungs, reducing oxygen supply to the body. Doctors, pathologists, and medical examiners generally are not going to have much difficulty determining cause of death as they chart the fall of oxygen levels.
If the patient is in hospital. Those who die in nursing homes or in their own homes are less reliably classified - and there are an awful lot of them.
Jeremy
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I don't believe on death certificates that people die from Covid. It is a contributory factor. Primary cause of death would be something like respiratory failure or cardiac arrest. You don't get enough oxygen or your heart stops beating, so you die. Secondary or contributory factor on the certificate is Covid.
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I don't believe on death certificates that people die from Covid. It is a contributory factor. Primary cause of death would be something like respiratory failure or cardiac arrest. You don't get enough oxygen or your heart stops beating, so you die. Secondary or contributory factor on the certificate is Covid.
Personally I've never seen a death certificate, have you? Have no idea, but both my parents died from cancer as that is what their doctors told me.
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If the patient is in hospital. Those who die in nursing homes or in their own homes are less reliably classified - and there are an awful lot of them.
Jeremy
You're absolutely right. Getting precise data is difficult and messy and requires best estimations by experts as a result. There is an article from Scientific American that addresses the issue fairly well. Non-experts that have a desire to claim either over or under reporting will find plenty to glom onto in the article. I do not and would not make any claims regarding the estimates from epidemiologists as they're educated and trained in the field and I am not. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-covid-19-deaths-are-counted1/ (https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-covid-19-deaths-are-counted1/)
Regarding Deaths in the Hospital...
How hard it is to accurately determine whether COVID-19 was truly that last straw depends on the situation. Most COVID-19 deaths seen at Mount Sinai Health System in New York are in people who have comorbid (or co-occurring) conditions such as coronary artery disease or kidney disease, said Dr. Mary Fowkes, the chief of autopsy services at Mount Sinai. But it’s not typically difficult to tell what killed them.
“Most of the cases are pretty straightforward,” Fowkes told Live Science. “The lungs are usually so severely involved with pathology, so they are two to three times or more the normal weight of a normal lung.” (The excess weight is due to fluid and cell detritus from damaged lung tissues.)
Regarding deaths at home...
In some cases, particularly those where someone dies at home or quickly perishes after entering an emergency room, the determination can be a little more fuzzy, said Dr. Jeremy Faust, an emergency physician at Brigham and Women’s Hospital in Massachusetts. “The challenge is knowing who died of COVID-19 versus who died with the virus that causes COVID-19,” Faust told Live Science.
All of the inconsistencies of cause-of-death reporting precede the COVID-19 pandemic, says Jay Wolfson, a professor of public health at the University of South Florida (USF). But getting good data about deaths is now extremely pressing, he told Live Science. Death certificates are often used by epidemiologists and public health officials to detect strange clusters of deaths or to link certain risk factors to certain causes of death. But because different states and localities have different rules about recording and reporting causes of death, the cumulative data is always messy.
“I think some states are reluctant to open their databases up, knowing they have validity problems or knowing the data might be misused,” Wolfson said. But public health officials need access, he said, and they need to figure out ways to dig into the data and standardize them. Wolfson and other researchers at USF are already working with state officials to see what kind of data the state can legally release, he said.
Both undercounts and overcounts of COVID-19 deaths are possible, Wolfson said, but it’s not yet clear which is more likely, or whether they might simply balance each other out. Fowkes said that based on her experience, it’s more likely that COVID-19 deaths are being missed than overcounted. That’s because New York is among several cities that show spikes in deaths at home, and these anomalous spikes could be due to untested, untreated COVID-19.
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I don't believe on death certificates that people die from Covid. It is a contributory factor. Primary cause of death would be something like respiratory failure or cardiac arrest. You don't get enough oxygen or your heart stops beating, so you die. Secondary or contributory factor on the certificate is Covid.
From the same Scientific American article linked above...
For COVID-19, the immediate cause of death might be listed as respiratory distress, with the second line reading “due to COVID-19.” Contributing factors such as heart disease, diabetes or high blood pressure would then be listed further down. This has led to some confusion by people arguing that the “real” cause of death was heart disease or diabetes, Aiken said, but that’s not the case.
“Without the COVID19 being the last straw or the thing that led to the chain of events that led to death, they probably wouldn’t have died,” she said.
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Personally I've never seen a death certificate, have you? Have no idea, but both my parents died from cancer as that is what their doctors told me.
Yes I've seen them. We say people die from cancer. But that's the contributory cause. The primary or immediate cause of death would be let's say renal failure. The cancer attacks the organs so they stop working properly and you die. But we don't say the person died from renal failure, we say they died from cancer which caused the renal failure. I believe these often get confused or there may be unknown reasons especially if there's no autopsy. If someone is really old, and dies, they're not going to perform an autopsy unless it looks like there was foul play.
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If someone is really old, and dies, they're not going to perform an autopsy unless it looks like there was foul play.
The patient or family can also request or give permission for an autopsy. In the case of my elderly father, he gave permission for an autopsy shortly before he died from heart disease for the purpose of educating students in the university hospital where he died.
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Yes I've seen them. We say people die from cancer. But that's the contributory cause. The primary or immediate cause of death would be let's say renal failure. The cancer attacks the organs so they stop working properly and you die. But we don't say the person died from renal failure, we say they died from cancer which caused the renal failure. I believe these often get confused or there may be unknown reasons especially if there's no autopsy. If someone is really old, and dies, they're not going to perform an autopsy unless it looks like there was foul play.
Who is "we"? Who gets confused? Also, where did you go to medical school?
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Who is "we"? Who gets confused? Also, where did you go to medical school?
As I've already mentioned, everything is subject to 'cause and effect'. In many situations the causes and effects over a period of time are so numerous that they are difficult to both quantify and qualify.
Consider Alan's example of a person dying of renal failure which was caused by cancer. That's just two causes and two effects. If one goes back further and questions what caused the cancer, it can get very complicated and very uncertain.
For example, to what extent was the cancer caused by a bad diet, or by a lack of exercise, or by exposure to harmful chemicals, or by a genetic weakness, or by a combination of all those conditions plus many more that are not identified, and perhaps cannot be identified?
Edit: And another possibility; the side effects of drugs administered to treat other ailments.
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Personally I've never seen a death certificate, have you? Have no idea, but both my parents died from cancer as that is what their doctors told me.
Seen many, completed many.
Yes I've seen them. We say people die from cancer. But that's the contributory cause. The primary or immediate cause of death would be let's say renal failure. The cancer attacks the organs so they stop working properly and you die. But we don't say the person died from renal failure, we say they died from cancer which caused the renal failure. I believe these often get confused or there may be unknown reasons especially if there's no autopsy. If someone is really old, and dies, they're not going to perform an autopsy unless it looks like there was foul play.
In the UK, there is considerable flexibility in certifying the cause of death. A death certificate contains
I(a) Disease or condition directly leading to death:
I(b) Other disease or condition, if any, leading to I(a):
I(c) Other disease or condition, if any, leading to I(b):
II Other significant conditions CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEATH but not related to the disease or condition causing it:
I've never certified a death in the US; the form may well be different.
The last sentence is untrue, at least in the UK: a death must be referred to the coroner if the deceased has not been seen by a doctor within two weeks of death. That rule has been relaxed for the last three months, which has done little to improve the reliability of data on cause of death.
Jeremy
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Seen many, completed many.
In the UK, there is considerable flexibility in certifying the cause of death. A death certificate contains
I(a) Disease or condition directly leading to death:
I(b) Other disease or condition, if any, leading to I(a):
I(c) Other disease or condition, if any, leading to I(b):
II Other significant conditions CONTRIBUTING TO THE DEATH but not related to the disease or condition causing it:
I've never certified a death in the US; the form may well be different.
The last sentence is untrue, at least in the UK: a death must be referred to the coroner if the deceased has not been seen by a doctor within two weeks of death. That rule has been relaxed for the last three months, which has done little to improve the reliability of data on cause of death.
Jeremy
It's pretty similar in the US but probably varies a little among the 50 States which each make their rules. I found this on the web.
"For example, in all U.S. states, an autopsy can be ordered if there is suspicion of foul play. This type of autopsy is referred to as a forensic autopsy and is performed to gather information of interest to authorities and to determine the manner of death (homicide, suicide, accident, natural death, or undetermined manner).
In most states, autopsies may also be ordered if there is a belief that the death represents a significant public health concern (such as from a threatening infectious disease), if a person inexplicably dies who was not under medical care, who was receiving medical care from a physician for less than 24 hours, or if a person dies from an injury, such as an automobile accident. Autopsies that are ordered by authorities are performed and evaluated in the medical examiner's office or coroner's office.
If an autopsy is not required by law or ordered by authorities, the deceased person's next of kin must give permission for an autopsy to be performed."
https://www.medicinenet.com/when_is_an_autopsy_mandatory/ask.htm
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Interesting news article (https://news.ki.se/immunity-to-covid-19-is-probably-higher-than-tests-have-shown) from the Karolinska Institute: active T cells found in some people with no antibodies. Might explain the high negative rate of the antibody test in those who have been symptomatic (not false negatives after all) and casts further doubt on the usefulness of the test; on the other hand, it may be that immunity is more common than has been thought. There's a link to the as yet unpublished paper. The usual caveats about lack of peer review apply, of course.
Jeremy
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Interesting news article (https://news.ki.se/immunity-to-covid-19-is-probably-higher-than-tests-have-shown) from the Karolinska Institute: active T cells found in some people with no antibodies. Might explain the high negative rate of the antibody test in those who have been symptomatic (not false negatives after all) and casts further doubt on the usefulness of the test; on the other hand, it may be that immunity is more common than has been thought. There's a link to the as yet unpublished paper. The usual caveats about lack of peer review apply, of course.
Jeremy
Correct me if I misunderstand. So if people have T cells that are protecting them from Covid, that means that they have natural immunity because of their DNA?
This could be helpful in reaching herd immunity. It may also mean that the disease will "die out" soon or have minimum secondary effects afterwards.
Will they be able to test people to see if they have the T cells. If so, those that have them could more easily get on with their lives without the worry the rest of us are facing.
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America First;
130.000 deaths and ticking...
Going for 100.000 new cases a day, if they don't watch out ( according to Fauci)
https://apnews.com/8e2b3b7ca3bb2475b9ae901dad4e09ee
Maybe it is time for some action? Direction? Apparantly NY now knows how to deal with it, maybe they should go and visit to get some lecture.
meanwhile " The US has bought up virtually all the stocks for the next three months of one of the two drugs proven to work against Covid-19, leaving none for the UK, Europe or most of the rest of the world."
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/30/us-buys-up-world-stock-of-key-covid-19-drug
Europe is keeping the US travelers out, for 1 of every 200 US citizen (or more) is infected.
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meanwhile " The US has bought up virtually all the stocks for the next three months of one of the two drugs proven to work against Covid-19, leaving none for the UK, Europe or most of the rest of the world."
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jun/30/us-buys-up-world-stock-of-key-covid-19-drug
AIUI the ones who this would benefit wouldn't be sick enough to be admitted to a UK hospital anyway, so no big deal - except for what it says about US attitude to a global problem.
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Interesting news article (https://news.ki.se/immunity-to-covid-19-is-probably-higher-than-tests-have-shown) from the Karolinska Institute: active T cells found in some people with no antibodies. Might explain the high negative rate of the antibody test in those who have been symptomatic (not false negatives after all) and casts further doubt on the usefulness of the test; on the other hand, it may be that immunity is more common than has been thought. There's a link to the as yet unpublished paper. The usual caveats about lack of peer review apply, of course.
Jeremy
Several other investigators have found the same thing and it may be this is the main immune mechanism in young people as it appears to be age related. We don't know what the level of prevalence is here and I would not be quick to dismiss the utility of the antibody test. Testing in general is still a black box as some people can harbor viral DNA fragments for several weeks after clinical symptoms have disappeared. They still have positive PCR test but no viable virus can be cultured from nasal or throat swabs. There is just a lot of weird things about this virus that continually amaze me. As a former pathologist you might be interested in this Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/07/01/coronavirus-autopsies-findings/) story. Just some more grist for the COVID-19 mill.
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Correct me if I misunderstand. So if people have T cells that are protecting them from Covid, that means that they have natural immunity because of their DNA?
This could be helpful in reaching herd immunity. It may also mean that the disease will "die out" soon or have minimum secondary effects afterwards.
Will they be able to test people to see if they have the T cells. If so, those that have them could more easily get on with their lives without the worry the rest of us are facing.
Everyone has T cells. What is not known is why there is a differing immune response in some people and not others. Killer T cells can help the body clear out viral infections. The whole immune system is quite complicated with lots of different signalling going on in response to an infection.
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Over 51,000 infections in USA one day! That's a number even the most staunched deniers couldn't imagine just a few months ago - for the entire disease duration.
Today, I spoke on the phone with a Canadian lady from Ottawa who got stuck in March in Orlando, and she still can't get home. There were over 6,500 recorded cases in Florida today. She was quite scared and worried.
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The border restrictions between US and Canada put in place in March have been extended three times and are now set to expire on July 21 - unless they will be extended again.
"My guess is it's going to have to stay closed for more than 12 months," Colin Furness, an epidemiologist at the University of Toronto, told CBC News this week. "It's hard to imagine what's going to happen in the United States until we have a vaccine or until the population has been sufficiently infected that you have herd immunity."
https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/canada-u-s-border-pandemic-covid-coronavirus-1.5633650
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Over 51,000 infections in USA one day! That's a number even the most staunched deniers couldn't imagine just a few months ago - for the entire disease duration.
Today, I spoke on the phone with a Canadian lady from Ottawa who got stuck in March in Orlando, and she still can't get home. There were over 6,500 recorded cases in Florida today. She was quite scared and worried.
Surely Canadians are allowed into Canada with quarantine?
Or is it a case that she can't get there? I would get in a car and drive rather than stay. (Big drive I know)
Nearly all of the cases in Australia are returning Australians and their only issue was getting a flight. (Can't drive home.)
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I would not be quick to dismiss the utility of the antibody test ... As a former pathologist you might be interested in this Washington Post (https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/07/01/coronavirus-autopsies-findings/) story.
I wasn't dismissing its utility, merely observing that a test with such a very high false-negative rate must be treated with circumspection. And I was a surgeon, not a pathologist.
The whole immune system is quite complicated...
That comment reminds me of a trip I took some years ago to the Getty museum in LA, in the course of which the guide described John Paul Getty as "a successful businessman": it's the understatement of the decade. Not only is the immune system staggeringly complex, it's fractal: the closer you look, the more complex it gets.
Jeremy
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Surely Canadians are allowed into Canada with quarantine?
Or is it a case that she can't get there? I would get in a car and drive rather than stay. (Big drive I know)
Nearly all of the cases in Australia are returning Australians and their only issue was getting a flight. (Can't drive home.)
That's what I thought. I wonder if the rules changed recently with the new explosion of cases in USA.
As to driving to and from Florida, I have done it many times from Ontario, but many people especially older folks can't drive or are afraid to drive such long distances (over 2,200km from Orlando to Ottawa). And they would need to stop for 2-3 nights in motels what adds also a risk factor. Most probably she flew there and even if she has a driving license, renting a car for one way trip from US to Canada could be now quite expensive.
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In the US about 30% of COVID deaths may not be classified as such, largely due to a lack of testing:
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/07/about-30-covid-deaths-may-not-be-classified-such
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That's what I thought. I wonder if the rules changed recently with the new explosion of cases in USA.
As to driving to and from Florida, I have done it many times from Ontario, but many people especially older folks can't drive or are afraid to drive such long distances (over 2,200km from Orlando to Ottawa). And they would need to stop for 2-3 nights in motels what adds also a risk factor. Most probably she flew there and even if she has a driving license, renting a car for one way trip from US to Canada could be now quite expensive.
My "snow bird" friends here ion New Jersey travel to Florida for four months during the cold winter. They use the car-train for part of the way picking it up in Virginia. The train loads up you car and you get a sleeper for yourself. It terminates in northern FLorida where they can drive to their final destination in a couple of hours. They spend one night on the train.
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In the US about 30% of COVID deaths may not be classified as such, largely due to a lack of testing:
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/news-perspective/2020/07/about-30-covid-deaths-may-not-be-classified-such
There's also the belief that more people are dying of these other diseases even though they are not infected with Covid.
Numbers of Non-COVID-19 Deaths Up During Pandemic
"But a third possibility, the one we're quite concerned about, is indirect mortality -- deaths caused by the response to the pandemic," he said. "People who never had the virus may have died from other causes because of the spillover effects of the pandemic, such as delayed medical care, economic hardship or emotional distress."
https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-07-01/numbers-of-non-covid-19-deaths-up-during-pandemic
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There's also the belief that more people are dying of these other diseases even though they are not infected with Covid.
Numbers of Non-COVID-19 Deaths Up During Pandemic
"But a third possibility, the one we're quite concerned about, is indirect mortality -- deaths caused by the response to the pandemic," he said. "People who never had the virus may have died from other causes because of the spillover effects of the pandemic, such as delayed medical care, economic hardship or emotional distress."
https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-07-01/numbers-of-non-covid-19-deaths-up-during-pandemic
That's very shocking news, Alan, particularly the figures for New York. I feel so lucky I'm in Queensland, Australia.
I think there is also the problem that the anxiety and stress due to the lock down, plus the fear of contracting Covid-19, tends to weaken the immune system, making one more vulnerable if one comes in contact with the virus.
"At COVID-19's peak for March and April, diabetes deaths in those five states rose 96% above the expected number of deaths when compared to the weekly averages in January and February of 2020.
The five states also had spikes in deaths from heart disease (89%), Alzheimer's disease (64%) and stroke (35%).
In New York City, there was a 398% increase in heart disease deaths and a 356% increase in diabetes deaths."
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That's very shocking news, Alan, particularly the figures for New York. I feel so lucky I'm in Queensland, Australia.
I think there is also the problem that the anxiety and stress due to the lock down, plus the fear of contracting Covid-19, tends to weaken the immune system, making one more vulnerable if one comes in contact with the virus.
"At COVID-19's peak for March and April, diabetes deaths in those five states rose 96% above the expected number of deaths when compared to the weekly averages in January and February of 2020.
The five states also had spikes in deaths from heart disease (89%), Alzheimer's disease (64%) and stroke (35%).
In New York City, there was a 398% increase in heart disease deaths and a 356% increase in diabetes deaths."
It's terrible. You walk around in fear of going out especially since my wife and I are older and have comorbidities. I've suggested we rent a cabin someplace where there won;t be people but we can get away. My wife refuses until this is "over". We might be dead before this is over. :o
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There's also the belief that more people are dying of these other diseases even though they are not infected with Covid.
Numbers of Non-COVID-19 Deaths Up During Pandemic
"But a third possibility, the one we're quite concerned about, is indirect mortality -- deaths caused by the response to the pandemic," he said. "People who never had the virus may have died from other causes because of the spillover effects of the pandemic, such as delayed medical care, economic hardship or emotional distress."
https://www.usnews.com/news/health-news/articles/2020-07-01/numbers-of-non-covid-19-deaths-up-during-pandemic
Number of indirect deaths in these times is severely underestimated. As mentioned, people get stressed, if their hip or knee surgeries were postponed, they may fall and suffer injuries, and many don't eat and exercise properly which can lead to other problems. Many patients were dependent also on their physiotherapists, chiropractors and other health specialists who were closed for almost 4 months.
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That comment reminds me of a trip I took some years ago to the Getty museum in LA, in the course of which the guide described John Paul Getty as "a successful businessman": it's the understatement of the decade.
I hope you also had an opportunity to see the Getty Villa in Pacific Palisades, a modern replica of a first-century Roman villa (https://www.flickr.com/photos/chriskernpix/49469894431/in/datetaken-public/) commissioned by Getty in the 1970s. You go more for the architecture (https://www.flickr.com/photos/chriskernpix/49469893866/in/datetaken-public/) than for the collection of ancient art, which, though expertly curated (money being no object), is neither as extensive nor as exceptional as that on display at a number of major museums in the U.K., continental Europe, or even elsewhere in the United States.
If you missed it on that earlier visit, do include it on your agenda for your next trip to California. It should be safe to travel there again in ... ahh ... say ... 2023.
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An eye popping 10,109 new cases in Florida today. Fortunately only 68 deaths. The good news is apparently they are still testing.
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Some statisitics seem a bit off;
Russia, Saoudi Arabia, Qatar, Chili, Pakistan to name a few:
All have large amounts of infections but only a small percentage dies when compared with other countries.
What could be the reason?
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Some statisitics seem a bit off;
Russia, Saoudi Arabia, Qatar, Chili, Pakistan to name a few:
All have large amounts of infections but only a small percentage dies when compared with other countries.
What could be the reason?
Maybe protecting the elderly where the majority of deaths occur.
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It's terrible. You walk around in fear of going out especially since my wife and I are older and have comorbidities. I've suggested we rent a cabin someplace where there won;t be people but we can get away. My wife refuses until this is "over". We might be dead before this is over. :o
I sympathize with your predicament. My advice would be to remain calm. Do whatever is recommended to avoid contact with the virus, but don't worry about it. Worrying solves nothing, and can make the situation worse because it might interfere with your clear thinking and result in your making mistakes.
Takes this opportunity to practice Buddhist meditation. You have all the time in the world to sit down doing nothing. ;)
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An eye popping 10,109 new cases in Florida today. Fortunately only 68 deaths. The good news is apparently they are still testing.
That is more cases than we have in the whole of Australia ever. Similar population. Just mind boggling.
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An eye popping 10,109 new cases in Florida today. Fortunately only 68 deaths. The good news is apparently they are still testing.
Is the infection explosion due to the recent protest demonstrations, beach parties, or AC's recirculating compromised air in public buildings?
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That is more cases than we have in the whole of Australia ever. Similar population. Just mind boggling.
Bob, How are Australians meeting socially, publically and at work that are different than Floridians?
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Is the infection explosion due to the recent protest demonstrations, beach parties, or AC's recirculating compromised air in public buildings?
Probably all of the above and more reasons besides. It appears as if people convinced themselves it was all over and got careless in many ways.
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Probably all of the above and more reasons besides. It appears as if people convinced themselves it was all over and got careless in many ways.
What if it turns out that being "careless" allows the virus to "rage" through the community faster and get it over with sooner? Otherwise, you forestall the damage as everyone stays locked up. m Then when you come out again two months later, it starts spreading again. Sure the statistics look worse initially. But if the end results are comparably the same, you've only hurt the economy worse by delaying. Pay now or pay more later.
Additionally, and unfortunately, this is election season in America. So both sides are making arguments and instituting policies that are politically measured. The poor public, sick, confused, and poorer, just throw up their hands and say screw it. Sometimes doing something, anything, is better than doing nothing. At least for many of them.
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What if it turns out that being "careless" allows the virus to "rage" through the community faster and get it over with sooner? Otherwise, you forestall the damage as everyone stays locked up. m Then when you come out again two months later, it starts spreading again. Sure the statistics look worse initially. But if the end results are comparably the same, you've only hurt the economy worse by delaying. Pay now or pay more later.
Additionally, and unfortunately, this is election season in America. So both sides are making arguments and instituting policies that are politically measured. The poor public, sick, confused, and poorer, just throw up their hands and say screw it. Sometimes doing something, anything, is better than doing nothing. At least for many of them.
Sweden has been trying this. Not only are their death rates much higher than their neighbours...but their economy is also in the hole.
If you believe what you say...why are you still hiding in your home. Didn't Covid ravage through your area already...shouldn't you be OK to return to your normal living?
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What if it turns out that being "careless" allows the virus to "rage" through the community faster and get it over with sooner? Otherwise, you forestall the damage as everyone stays locked up. m Then when you come out again two months later, it starts spreading again. Sure the statistics look worse initially. But if the end results are comparably the same, you've only hurt the economy worse by delaying. Pay now or pay more later.
Many assumptions there - first one being that getting it makes you immune to getting it again. Second is that hospitals can cope with "raging" virus without getting completely overwhelmed and not giving care to people they could otherwise have saved. Third is that society can cope with dead people being wheeled out at rates ten times what they are today. Fourth that the US would not be economically impacted by becoming the world's plague ship.
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Sweden has been trying this. Not only are their death rates much higher than their neighbours...but their economy is also in the hole.
If you believe what you say...why are you still hiding in your home. Didn't Covid ravage through your area already...shouldn't you be OK to return to your normal living?
If younger people feel it's in their interest to get out and work, that's their business. Everyone should make personal decisions accordingly. We're a free people.
I'm 75 so I'm more susceptible to getting it and dying from it. So I'm cautious. If may turn out that the best approach is for younger people to move ahead with activity while protecting older people. It doesn't have to be an all or nothing approach. That way, we can start to repair the economy while generally protecting the most vulnerable. That seems to be a reasonable approach. Look, no one knows exactly what the best method is. This is all new to us for both leaders and the general public. We're learning as we go along. Demanding you have the "truth" is just posturing. A little humility all around would be helpful.
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If younger people feel it's in their interest to get out and work, that's their business.
Clearly not, since doing so impacts the health of others.
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Clearly not, since doing so impacts the health of others.
It also impacts the young. Just watched a video of the chaos in Texas and the doctors interviews indicated more young in ICU with many not making it. Let's also not forget even if Covid does not kill you, it still can do major damage to your lungs that will affect your quality of life going forward and might shorten your life down the road.
Young are not immune.
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It also impacts the young. Just watched a video of the chaos in Texas and the doctors interviews indicated more young in ICU with many not making it. Let's also not forget even if Covid does not kill you, it still can do major damage to your lungs that will affect your quality of life going forward and might shorten your life down the road.
Young are not immune.
Didn't you argue that marijuana should be legal even though youngsters who don't need it to survive get addicted and suffer lung and other medical issues and get into auto accidents that kill innocent bystanders? Yet here where people need to go to work to support their families and help the overall economy, you want to deny them similar individual freedom.
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Didn't you argue that marijuana should be legal even though youngsters who don't need it to survive get addicted and suffer lung and other medical issues and get into auto accidents that kill innocent bystanders? Yet here where people need to go to work to support their families and help the overall economy, you want to deny them similar individual freedom.
The fallacy with your view is that marijuana was easily available to anyone who wanted it before it became legal...like it is in the USA. The drive to legalize it was to take it off the streets and into controlled environments...which is a good thing. Very much like providing free drugs and a safe environment to shoot up to help prevent overdoses is also a good thing.
Neither of these programs by the government has increased the use of the drugs.
As far as individual freedom, I'm all for it as long as my freedom is not in danger by you. If you are careless and go out to a bar to have a good time, get Covid and spread it around getting other people sick...that's like driving drunk and getting into an accident killing someone, but you living. That type of freedom should be locked up right next to the drunk drivers.
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The fallacy with your view is that marijuana was easily available to anyone who wanted it before it became legal...like it is in the USA. The drive to legalize it was to take it off the streets and into controlled environments...which is a good thing. Very much like providing free drugs and a safe environment to shoot up to help prevent overdoses is also a good thing.
Neither of these programs by the government has increased the use of the drugs.
As far as individual freedom, I'm all for it as long as my freedom is not in danger by you. If you are careless and go out to a bar to have a good time, get Covid and spread it around getting other people sick...that's like driving drunk and getting into an accident killing someone, but you living. That type of freedom should be locked up right next to the drunk drivers.
You're contradicting yourself. Driving high on pot kills innocent people as does driving drunk. Also, legal pot has increased the use of other drugs. You don't have your statistics right. But the main point you ignored is that while working will adding risk due to Covid, at least has more important societal benefits. You don't put any value on how the economy helps people and families.
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You're contradicting yourself. Driving high on pot kills innocent people as does driving drunk. Also, legal pot has increased the use of other drugs. You don't have your statistics right. But the main point you ignored is that while working will adding risk due to Covid, at least has more important societal benefits. You don't put any value on how the economy helps people and families.
No, you're wrong. According to your "logic" it's OK for a person to drive drunk cos its their decision as a "free" person. Driving drunk is illegal as, I imagine, it would be to drive uner the influence of marijuana. Yet you claim it should be legal for a person to spread a deadly disease if they feel like it? Bizarre.
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You're contradicting yourself. Driving high on pot kills innocent people as does driving drunk. Also, legal pot has increased the use of other drugs. You don't have your statistics right. But the main point you ignored is that while working will adding risk due to Covid, at least has more important societal benefits. You don't put any value on how the economy helps people and families.
please - start a new topic about the dangers of smoking hash while driving; It has NOTHING to do with this topic.
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No, you're wrong. According to your "logic" it's OK for a person to drive drunk cos its their decision as a "free" person. Driving drunk is illegal as, I imagine, it would be to drive uner the influence of marijuana. Yet you claim it should be legal for a person to spread a deadly disease if they feel like it? Bizarre.
I never said drivin drunk or spreading a deadly disease is OK. You're making it an all or nothing situation. The fact is NJ and NY where I live are opening up. People are going to restaurants and back to work. They're taking reasonable precautions. But infections will spread regardless what protection they take. Only staying home will stop the spread. But they're willing to put up with catching it. On the other hand, as a 75 old, I won't take the same risk. That's my choice so I stay home.
What do you want people to do? Stay home forever? How do they eat? How do they pay their bills? The fact is we're stuck between a rock and a hard spot. There are no solutions that works perfectly. We have to take risks according to our needs. If you're afraid like me, then stay home. Isolate. If you need to get out and feed your family by going back to work, I understand. Be careful, use protection to lower the spread, and go in best health as best you can.
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please - start a new topic about the dangers of smoking hash while driving; It has NOTHING to do with this topic.
Yes it does. The comparison shows that there are risks when people have personal freedom.
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Only in America! US students throw coronavirus parties to see who gets sick first — and the ‘winner’ gets money.
A disturbing new trend has hit a group of young students in Alabama: COVID-19 parties.
The parties are a competition where people, who know they are sick with the highly contagious respiratory virus, attend parties and bet on who gets sick first.
City Council member Sonya McKinstry told CNN that the parties are mainly being held in Tuscaloosa. Infected people are encouraged to show up so others can contract the virus on purpose
https://globalnews.ca/news/7132752/alabama-students-covid-19-parties/
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Only in America! US students throw coronavirus parties to see who gets sick first — and the ‘winner’ gets money.
https://globalnews.ca/news/7132752/alabama-students-covid-19-parties/
when I was young, I used to go stupid sh!t like that.
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when I was young, I used to go stupid sh!t like that.
Parties like that could have long lasting effects.
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Only in America! US students throw coronavirus parties to see who gets sick first — and the ‘winner’ gets money.
https://globalnews.ca/news/7132752/alabama-students-covid-19-parties/
Yeh, maybe it can go towards helping with their funeral arrangements. Idiots.
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I never said drivin drunk or spreading a deadly disease is OK.
Sure you did. You said if people want to go out to work it’s “their business”.
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Study finds hydroxychloroquine may have boosted survival, but other researchers have doubts
Dr. Marcus Zervos, division head of infectious disease for Henry Ford Health System, said 26% of those not given hydroxychloroquine died, compared to 13% of those who got the drug.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/02/health/hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-detroit-study/index.html
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Bob, How are Australians meeting socially, publically and at work that are different than Floridians?
Hi Alan,
I can only talk about Australians, but basically we didn't do any of those.
From somewhere in March until about Jun 1 we were only allowed out of the house for 4 things:
To go to the shops (and the only ones open were "essential" services, basically food.)
For medical reasons (but most were doing consults over the phone)
For exercise (basically walking as no parks or gyms were open)
Going to work or school (if you could not do it from home).
Most people who could worked from home and most schools were closed until at least April. Kids did lessons at home.
All clubs, bars and dining venues were shut. Many restaurants (even top end) would do takeaway.
The only interaction I had with kids and grandkids was over Zoom.
No weddings more than 5 people and no funerals more than 10.
Most people took it OK.
There is a Facebook comedy group called Bin Isolation Outing for people whose bins go out more often than they do.
Since June you can do most things with Social Distancing rules of 4 sq metres per person.
We have just had a bit of a spike in one state of Victoria that decided to relax too early and allowed a protest march. They are not welcome anywhere at the moment.
Everyone else can travel now.
We have only had two deaths in the country since May 23.
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Study finds hydroxychloroquine may have boosted survival, but other researchers have doubts
Dr. Marcus Zervos, division head of infectious disease for Henry Ford Health System, said 26% of those not given hydroxychloroquine died, compared to 13% of those who got the drug.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/02/health/hydroxychloroquine-coronavirus-detroit-study/index.html
I just covered this study in my newsletter. It was not a controlled trial as the UK RECOVERY one was and that one showed no effect of HCQ. I can point to more negative studies of HCQ than positive ones. Observational trials have to be taken with a grain of salt. This trial from Detroit won't change any treatment guidelines.
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I just covered this study in my newsletter. It was not a controlled trial as the UK RECOVERY one was and that one showed no effect of HCQ. I can point to more negative studies of HCQ than positive ones. Observational trials have to be taken with a grain of salt. This trial from Detroit won't change any treatment guidelines.
But Dr. Zervos is an expert.
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But Dr. Zervos is an expert.
That's an exceptionally silly comment even by your elevated standards. He's reporting the results of a trial and indulging in some gentle speculation as to the reasons why those results of that small trial appear to differ from those of the much larger Oxford study. Only the second, which was obviously tentative, requires expertise; for the first, he could be the office cleaner.
Jeremy
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That's an exceptionally silly comment even by your elevated standards. He's reporting the results of a trial and indulging in some gentle speculation as to the reasons why those results of that small trial appear to differ from those of the much larger Oxford study. Only the second, which was obviously tentative, requires expertise; for the first, he could be the office cleaner.
Jeremy
I was indulging in some gentle satire. :)
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Unless a country locks down for the duration, it comes back.
Lockdown ordered for 200,000 in northeastern Spain due to Covid-19 outbreaks
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/04/europe/lockdown-lleida-province-spain-coronavirus-outbreaks-intl/index.html
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The virus situation in Canada is improving. There are only 2 active cases in Nova Scotia, and the other neighbouring provinces are also doing well. The tourists and residents can now travel freely between the four Atlantic provinces.
Soon after the four Atlantic provinces lifted travel restrictions within the region early Friday, heavy cross-border traffic was reported across the Maritimes.
Residents of New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, Newfoundland and Labrador and Prince Edward Island can now travel to any of the other three provinces without self-isolating for 14 days after arriving – a change that has created a so-called Atlantic bubble.
https://globalnews.ca/news/7135085/atlantic-provinces-lift-travel-restrictions/
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Unless a country locks down for the duration, it comes back.
Not necessarily, if people observe social distancing (or the use of masks if distancing is not possible) guidelines. Also, testing will alllow quick response containment action.
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Not necessarily, if people observe social distancing (or the use of masks if distancing is not possible) guidelines. Also, testing will alllow quick response containment action.
Yes, contact tracing is key to nip any outbreaks in the bud.
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Unless a country locks down for the duration, it comes back.
Not necessarily, if people observe social distancing (or the use of masks if distancing is not possible) guidelines. Also, testing will alllow quick response containment action.
Also hand-washing is still advisable. Although direct transmission seems to have accounted for the majority of COVID-19 infections, fomite transmission apparently remains a real possibility, and the consensus expert guidance is to continue to be cautious after touching surfaces that could transmit the virus indirectly.
This is not yet an eradicable virus, but as many European and East Asian governments have demonstrated, it is a controllable one―even while permitting substantial business activity―if sensible precautionary policies are employed.
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Also hand-washing is still advisable. Although direct transmission seems to have accounted for the majority of COVID-19 infections, fomite transmission apparently remains a real possibility, and the consensus expert guidance is to continue to be cautious after touching surfaces that could transmit the virus indirectly.
This is not yet an eradicable virus, but as many European and East Asian governments have demonstrated, it is a controllable one―even while permitting substantial business activity―if sensible precautionary policies are employed.
Yes, handwashing and subsequent disinfection are helpful, in case the other advice has not been followed (especially) by others. Staying home and getting tested when symptomatic is anther one (although people can also/already spread the virus when asymptomatic or presymptomatic). Increased testing of waste/sewer water also helps early detection and regionally focused containment.
The economic impact of this first wave is significant, even in countries that have regained control. But that's mostly due to being unprepared for this novel virus, despite warnings that such an event was likely. International (and local) travel has proven to be an important factor in its spreading.
Lesson learned, one hopes.
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And to cheer us all up, we now seem to have a covid mutation that makes it more likely to spread.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/02/health/coronavirus-mutation-spread-study/index.html
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The new normal
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Informative graphic about the state of Covid-19in the world
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Informative graphic about the state of Covid-19in the world
I wish the scale was the same for all graphs.
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I wish the scale was the same for all graphs.
I agree. Lies, damn lies, and statistics.
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I agree. Lies, damn lies, and statistics.
How are they lies?
In fact, the benefit of the given choice of scaling is that it more easily identifies those who are performing sub-par.
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I agree. Lies, damn lies, and statistics.
You have quoted that homily about lies and statistics many many times, you must like it.
But I heard a good line the other day. Yes, it's possible to lie using statistics, but it's a LOT easier to lie without them.
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I wish the scale was the same for all graphs.
I agree - here it is.
Alan, what you see in those graphs is just that in some countries they test more than in others... ;)
btw some days later ; new cases july 7
africa 17.000
Europe 12.000
Asia & Middle east 50.000
LatinAmerica & Carabbean 64.000
North America 64.000
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You have quoted that homily about lies and statistics many many times, you must like it.
But I heard a good line the other day. Yes, it's possible to lie using statistics, but it's a LOT easier to lie without them.
But when you "lie" with statistics, it's more likely people will believe your lie. After all, don't the statistics prove the point better than just words? That's what makes statistics so dangerous.
Ever read a forum argument comparing which camera lens is sharper? Everyone has a statistic to prove their point. All the pixel peepers come out claiming they can count more angels on the head of a pin with their lenses than any other. They prove their point with charts, and pictures, and whatever. It's quite amusing I'm sure you'll agree. :)
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I agree - here it is.
Alan, what you see in those graphs is just that in some countries they test more than in others... ;)
btw some days later ; new cases july 7
africa 17.000
Europe 12.000
Asia & Middle east 50.000
LatinAmerica & Carabbean 64.000
North America 64.000
I suppose that's better Pieter. But what does a "seven day rolling average" mean?
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But when you "lie" with statistics, it's more likely people will believe your lie. After all, don't the statistics prove the point better than just words? That's what makes statistics so dangerous.
I don't know about lying but you have to a bit deeper than the graph.
Asia for example is the largest continent on the planet with about half the worlds population, but it had less cases yesterday than the USA.
What does "North America" mean if it doesn't include Latin America and the Caribbean.
To me hard numbers trump a graph any day.
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I don't know about lying but you have to a bit deeper than the graph.
Asia for example is the largest continent on the planet with about half the worlds population, but it had less cases yesterday than the USA.
What does "North America" mean if it doesn't include Latin America and the Caribbean.
To me hard numbers trump a graph any day.
I agree. How can you have any faith in a graph that doesn;t give all the parameters? Like I asked, what's a 7 day rolling average when the graph extends for many months? Where's South America? Where the web link? Who made the graph? What does number of cases mean (from testing? hospitalized? etc.?)
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I agree. How can you have any faith in a graph that doesn;t give all the parameters? Like I asked, what's a 7 day rolling average when the graph extends for many months? Where's South America? Where the web link? Who made the graph? What does number of cases mean (from testing? hospitalized? etc.?)
It’s not the fault of the authors of the graph that you don’t understand words. Google will quickly tell you what a “seven day rolling average” is. Latin America is where they speak Latin.
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What does "North America" mean if it doesn't include Latin America and the Caribbean.
Umm ... at a guess it means USA + Canada.
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I agree. Lies, damn lies, and statistics.
This is ridiculous. Independent of the scale, the cases per region are what they are. For example, the USA would still be 50,000 cases a day.
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Umm ... at a guess it means USA + Canada.
Exactly. And as one of those is at number 1 and one is at number 20 that probably just means the US. Why not say that.
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Exactly. And as one of those is at number 1 and one is at number 20 that probably just means the US. Why not say that.
It's a comparison of figures per continent, apparently. I think we all know what a basket case the US is in this regard!
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yes, in some countries. But increasing in most. Global death count for today: 2064
By country:
Italy - 743
USA - 120
Spain - 489
France - 240
Iran - 122
UK - 87
Netherlands - 63
None in Brazil?
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The numbers are what they are. One can use any measure to show the US response has been dismal. Look at hospitalization usage in the current hard hit states. In some regions they are at 100% capacity. We know that there are improved treatments now and all those people will not die. However, as was the case in New York, it puts a huge burden on the healthcare system and those who might need hospitalization for some non-COVID condition are put in peril.
One of the things I am tracking in my newsletter is the trend in infection and Case Rate Fatality (CRF). CRF has traditionally been used by the public health community to gauge how problematic an epidemic is/was. At present, it is an imprecise number as the total number of infections is not known with precision. I look at the numbers daily to see what the trend might be. The US CRF stands at 4.3%. I continue to believe as more accurate numbers come in this will drop by about a factor of 10 but that is still higher than any other influenza outbreak other than the Spanish Flu of 1918-19.
One can do the thought experiment based on herd immunity. In the absence of a vaccine, we will need to reach the herd immunity point which is unknowable right now. To make the math easy, assume it to be 60% of the population getting infected and recovering. That is 198 M people and we are no where close to that. If you assume my CFR estimate (0.5%) total mortality ends up at 990 K deaths, totally unacceptable which is why we need to be doing so much more.
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This is ridiculous. Independent of the scale, the cases per region are what they are. For example, the USA would still be 50,000 cases a day.
The shape of the original graphs were not the same distorting their relative meaning to the viewer projecting a different image. Better if it just listed the totals in numbers than (edit) use fake graphs. If you want to show volatility or amplify change, for example, just show the top 10% of a graph rather that the full 100% extent of the amounts. It's an old graph trick.
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The numbers are what they are. One can use any measure to show the US response has been dismal. Look at hospitalization usage in the current hard hit states. In some regions they are at 100% capacity. We know that there are improved treatments now and all those people will not die. However, as was the case in New York, it puts a huge burden on the healthcare system and those who might need hospitalization for some non-COVID condition are put in peril.
One of the things I am tracking in my newsletter is the trend in infection and Case Rate Fatality (CRF). CRF has traditionally been used by the public health community to gauge how problematic an epidemic is/was. At present, it is an imprecise number as the total number of infections is not known with precision. I look at the numbers daily to see what the trend might be. The US CRF stands at 4.3%. I continue to believe as more accurate numbers come in this will drop by about a factor of 10 but that is still higher than any other influenza outbreak other than the Spanish Flu of 1918-19.
One can do the thought experiment based on herd immunity. In the absence of a vaccine, we will need to reach the herd immunity point which is unknowable right now. To make the math easy, assume it to be 60% of the population getting infected and recovering. That is 198 M people and we are no where close to that. If you assume my CFR estimate (0.5%) total mortality ends up at 990 K deaths, totally unacceptable which is why we need to be doing so much more.
There is no simple solution. Like most things in life, there are tradeoffs. If you shutdown the country and isolate, yes the rates will go down. But the economy will be hurt more and people will suffer worse economically which effects their health as well as their pocketbook. If you keep the economy open more, than the rate of infection goes up while the other undesirable results of a stricken economy go down.
Frankly, this is one of those situations where regardless of how hard we try, there's not much we can do. It's like trying to find the right exposure setting shooting a shady landscape with a bright sky. We need a grad ND filter. Unfortunately with the virus, the vaccine hasn't been yet invented.
Slowly or quickly, the virus seems to want to go through the population. Even NYS Gov Cuomo said as much months ago. Sure, we can use drugs and health efforts to cure those stricken and help those to not get it. But we're really at the mercy of nature. No one's "solution" on either side will get us through without a lot of damage to our health, lives and wallets as much as we argue as to the "correct" method to follow.
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Alan G.: What has your research in the US shown?
Brain problems linked to even mild virus infections: study
https://news.yahoo.com/brain-problems-linked-even-mild-virus-infections-study-102940044.html
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The shape of the original graphs were not the same distorting their relative meaning to the viewer projecting a different image. Better if it just listed the totals in numbers than (edit) use fake graphs. If you want to show volatility or amplify change, for example, just show the top 10% of a graph rather that the full 100% extent of the amounts. It's an old graph trick.
The shapes of the graphs did not change, just the vertical stretch, and the scales were clearly labelled. All the graphs went from zero so your "old graph trick" is irrelevant - if anyhing the original graphs were kind to the US as they did not emphasise the massive number of cases in N America. The graphs show the evolution of the dataset; just listing the totals does not do that. Finally - there is nothing "fake" about the graphs and it does you no credit to say otherwise... [gratuitously offensive, quasi-political comment deleted by moderator; final warning]
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There is no simple solution. Like most things in life, there are tradeoffs. If you shutdown the country and isolate, yes the rates will go down. But the economy will be hurt more and people will suffer worse economically which effects their health as well as their pocketbook. If you keep the economy open more, than the rate of infection goes up while the other undesirable results of a stricken economy go down.
Frankly, this is one of those situations where regardless of how hard we try, there's not much we can do. .
Wrong - compare Brazil and the US with New Zealand. New Zealand acted quickly and effectively. The virus there has not gone away and the country is not back to normal, but people are getting hospital treatment both for Covid and for other conditions.
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The shapes of the graphs did not change, just the vertical stretch, and the scales were clearly labelled. All the graphs went from zero so your "old graph trick" is irrelevant - if anyhing the original graphs were kind to the US as they did not emphasise the massive number of cases in N America. The graphs show the evolution of the dataset; just listing the totals does not do that. Finally - there is nothing "fake" about the graphs and it does you no credit to say otherwise...[moderator: offensive comment deleted here as well]
That's insulting and political - not for this topic. Can't you disagree without getting disagreeable?
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Wrong - compare Brazil and the US with New Zealand. New Zealand acted quickly and effectively. The virus there has not gone away and the country is not back to normal, but people are getting hospital treatment both for Covid and for other conditions.
You confirmed my point. There is a tradeoff.
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That's insulting and political - not for this topic. Can't you disagree without getting disagreeable?
I'd say that using the word "fake" is the political act here.
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You confirmed my point. There is a tradeoff.
Of course there is a tradeoff, but that doesn't mean that all choices are equally bad. US and Brazil (and to an extent UK) made bad choices; NZ made a good choice.
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There is no simple solution. Like most things in life, there are tradeoffs. If you shutdown the country and isolate, yes the rates will go down. But the economy will be hurt more and people will suffer worse economically which effects their health as well as their pocketbook. If you keep the economy open more, than the rate of infection goes up while the other undesirable results of a stricken economy go down.
There is no evidence that if you don't shutdown and let the virus run its course, your economy will be better off. What happens when many people that work the factories get infected. What happens if people get scared and stay home. Look at Sweden, its economy is no better than its neighbours, but their death count is way higher.
One thing we do know is if we shut down to get the virus under control and then open up with enforced measures such as wearing masks where one cannot distance themselves, we do save lives.
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There is no evidence that if you don't shutdown and let the virus run its course, your economy will be better off. What happens when many people that work the factories get infected. What happens if people get scared and stay home. Look at Sweden, its economy is no better than its neighbours, but their death count is way higher.
One thing we do know is if we shut down to get the virus under control and then open up with enforced measures such as wearing masks where one cannot distance themselves, we do save lives.
I have yet to see any economist model in waves of sick outs that would affect various industries. We know that meatpacking plants were closed for some number of weeks when all the workers got sick. There was always going to be an economic impact and there still will be one. Lots of people will not fly right now. they also won't go into restaurants for a sit down meal. Lots of office buildings are only opening up slowly and even then I expect there to be a lot of remote work to continue. Things could have been managed much better but there is no understanding on the part of a large number of Americans what practices are needed. The virus will continue to circulate as it has no mind of its own.
One economist who runs a reputable newsletter noted that even if we return to 90% of pre-pandemic economic activity that will still be a disaster. I agree with this. Older people such as myself are just not spending any money right now; there is no safe place to spend it (vacation, dining out, movies, theater, etc.). Performing arts in New York and DC are shut down for the remainder of the year and this affects restaurants and other hospitality sectors.
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Alan G.: What has your research in the US shown?
Brain problems linked to even mild virus infections: study
https://news.yahoo.com/brain-problems-linked-even-mild-virus-infections-study-102940044.html
There are a number of foreign reports of this as well. It appears to be a rare side effect of viral infection. It should be noted that one can get weird side effects from lots of different viruses; COVID-19 is not unusual in this regard.
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There is no simple solution. Like most things in life, there are tradeoffs. If you shutdown the country and isolate, yes the rates will go down. But the economy will be hurt more and people will suffer worse economically which effects their health as well as their pocketbook. If you keep the economy open more, than the rate of infection goes up while the other undesirable results of a stricken economy go down.
Classic examples of the logical fallacies of false dilemma and black and white thinking. Not only that but we beat this horse to death months ago. Let's move on.
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Why not let individuals decide what to do? That way the elderly like me can stay more isolated until this thing passes. Meanwhile, younger people who want to take the chance, can get back to work to alleviate the damage to the economy and make money to feed their families. People aren't stupid. The elderly know they're more at risk and are protecting themselves. The younger realize there is some risk but may feel supporting their families is worth the risk. Why should we let some bureaucrat in a state capitol or the president decide what's right for everyone? They know nothing about my needs or yours, nor do they really care.
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The shape of the original graphs were not the same distorting their relative meaning to the viewer projecting a different image. Better if it just listed the totals in numbers than (edit) use fake graphs. If you want to show volatility or amplify change, for example, just show the top 10% of a graph rather that the full 100% extent of the amounts. It's an old graph trick.
Plenty of graphs here, in a Portuguese newspaper. I think they are understandable:
https://expresso.pt/coronavirus/2020-07-08-Coronavirus-no-mundo-em-13-graficos-Portugal-com-o-2.-pior-registo-diario-dentro-da-UE
I have taken a couple of graphs wrt USA.
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Why not let individuals decide what to do? That way the elderly like me can stay more isolated until this thing passes. Meanwhile, younger people who want to take the chance, can get back to work to alleviate the damage to the economy and make money to feed their families. People aren't stupid. The elderly know they're more at risk and are protecting themselves. The younger realize there is some risk but may feel supporting their families is worth the risk. Why should we let some bureaucrat in a state capitol or the president decide what's right for everyone? They know nothing about my needs or yours, nor do they really care.
It's all very well, but the problem is when a significant number of younger people take to the streets and their jobs and do not follow the recommendations to avoid spreading the virus. Quite often, such disregard is following the example of the "leaders" like Trump, Bolsonaro, Boris , or the guy from Bielorussia (who said vodka was the cure).
I do not uderstand how in countries that were so affected people are now partying in the streets getting drunk with total disregard for public health.
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Paulo, Why don't you include graphs as well that show unemployment rates and how many people aren't making money and able to feed their families? Don't you think those are important facts as well?
Plenty of graphs here, in a Portuguese newspaper. I think they are understandable:
https://expresso.pt/coronavirus/2020-07-08-Coronavirus-no-mundo-em-13-graficos-Portugal-com-o-2.-pior-registo-diario-dentro-da-UE
I have taken a couple of graphs wrt USA.
Paulo, Why don't you include graphs as well that show unemployment rates and how many people aren't making money and able to feed their families? Don't you think those are important facts as well?
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It's all very well, but the problem is when a significant number of younger people take to the streets and their jobs and do not follow the recommendations to avoid spreading the virus. Quite often, such disregard is following the example of the "leaders" like Trump, Bolsonaro, Boris , or the guy from Bielorussia (who said vodka was the cure).
I do not uderstand how in countries that were so affected people are now partying in the streets getting drunk with total disregard for public health.
Let individuals decide what to do. If you're afraid of mixing it up in public like I am, do what I do. Stay home.
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Paulo, Why don't you include graphs as well that show unemployment rates and how many people aren't making money and able to feed their families? Don't you think those are important facts as well? Paulo, Why don't you include graphs as well that show unemployment rates and how many people aren't making money and able to feed their families? Don't you think those are important facts as well?
If you want to further the discussion, why not post some of those yourself?
Maybe you can find a graph showing how much dead people contribute to the economy. Or better yet, maybe you could find a graph showing how important it is for an economy to have healthy able-bodied people in it. It could be that looking after the health of your citizens is more important to liberty and self-determination than a lot of other things we blow money on.
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Let individuals decide what to do. If you're afraid of mixing it up in public like I am, do what I do. Stay home.
I'd like to but I have to drive over and pick up my prescriptions and groceries, and there are all these "rugged individualists" running red lights and driving in the left lane, you know, doing what they want to do.
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Let individuals decide what to do. If you're afraid of mixing it up in public like I am, do what I do. Stay home.
What about school teachers such as my daughter who is an elementary special education instructor? Most of her students are problematic and she has some who regularly spit at people. This kids are unlikely to sit still or even wear masks. There are a lot of teachers who are not young and might be at risk. Stay home may not be an option.
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If you want to further the discussion, why not post some of those yourself?
Maybe you can find a graph showing how much dead people contribute to the economy. Or better yet, maybe you could find a graph showing how important it is for an economy to have healthy able-bodied people in it. It could be that looking after the health of your citizens is more important to liberty and self-determination than a lot of other things we blow money on.
I have been posting articles describing the economic hardships. Here are a few more. You tell me how these people are going to feed their families, pay their mortgages or rent, pay for their car rentals, pay their credit cards debts, school debts, etc. Why don't we ask them what scares them more: Covid 19 or destitution?
United eyes mass layoffs as coronavirus creates 'worst crisis' in airline history
United Airlines Holdings (UAL) warned on Wednesday that it may be forced to furlough as many as 36,000 workers, or 45% of its workforce, as weak demand and travel restrictions in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak create “the worst crisis” the industry has ever faced.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/united-eyes-mass-layoffs-that-may-impact-up-to-36000-workers-150451961.html
Brooks Brothers Group Inc. filed for bankruptcy, felled by the pandemic’s impact on clothing sales and its own heavy debt load.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brooks-brothers-goes-bankrupt-formal-123854417.html
Employment In Arts, Entertainment And Recreation Plummeted By 39 Percent In Los Angeles In April, Says Report From City Controller
https://deadline.com/2020/07/employment-in-arts-entertainment-and-recreation-plummeted-by-39-percent-in-los-angeles-in-april-says-report-from-city-controller-1202978547/
Since you want to see a chart, here's one.
(http://www.shadowstats.com/imgs/sgs-emp.gif?hl=ad&t=1593697349)
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts
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I have been posting articles describing the economic hardships. Here are a few more. You tell me how these people are going to feed their families, pay their mortgages or rent, pay for their car rentals, pay their credit cards debts, school debts, etc. Why don't we ask them what scares them more: Covid 19 or destitution?
United eyes mass layoffs as coronavirus creates 'worst crisis' in airline history
United Airlines Holdings (UAL) warned on Wednesday that it may be forced to furlough as many as 36,000 workers, or 45% of its workforce, as weak demand and travel restrictions in the wake of the coronavirus outbreak create “the worst crisis” the industry has ever faced.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/united-eyes-mass-layoffs-that-may-impact-up-to-36000-workers-150451961.html
Brooks Brothers Group Inc. filed for bankruptcy, felled by the pandemic’s impact on clothing sales and its own heavy debt load.
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/brooks-brothers-goes-bankrupt-formal-123854417.html
Employment In Arts, Entertainment And Recreation Plummeted By 39 Percent In Los Angeles In April, Says Report From City Controller
https://deadline.com/2020/07/employment-in-arts-entertainment-and-recreation-plummeted-by-39-percent-in-los-angeles-in-april-says-report-from-city-controller-1202978547/
Since you want to see a chart, here's one.
(http://www.shadowstats.com/imgs/sgs-emp.gif?hl=ad&t=1593697349)
http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts
Well now you've discovered clear evidence of the failure of the US economic system maybe you'll be less dogmatic about pretending that government is the root of all evil.
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Well now you've discovered clear evidence of the failure of the US economic system maybe you'll be less dogmatic about pretending that government is the root of all evil.
Jeremy, It's the government that causes all these problems. It was the government that shut down the economy and forced everyone to stay home that caused the unemployment and bankruptcies. Even in "normal" times, it's always the government that causes problems, not the free market system. It's because the government interferes with it that we have these problems. Free markets heal themselves. Governments aggravate the problems thinking they can fix the economy with central control and monetary and fiscal policies that never work.
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I have been posting articles describing the economic hardships. Here are a few more. You tell me how these people are going to feed their families, pay their mortgages or rent, pay for their car rentals, pay their credit cards debts, school debts, etc. Why don't we ask them what scares them more: Covid 19 or destitution?
Here is another "rugged individualist" who just entered the job market. At least he didn't have a gun. Why don't we ask him which scares him more: wearing a face mask or not being able to support his wife and children.
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/costco-dan-fired-insurance-agency-face-mask/
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Jeremy, It's the government that causes all these problems. It was the government that shut down the economy and forced everyone to stay home that caused the unemployment and bankruptcies. Even in "normal" times, it's always the government that causes problems, not the free market system. It's because the government interferes with it that we have these problems. Free markets heal themselves. Governments aggravate the problems thinking they can fix the economy with central control and monetary and fiscal policies that never work.
Hmm that's odd - because it is precisely the countries with more government intervention that have fared best in this crisis
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Let individuals decide what to do. If you're afraid of mixing it up in public like I am, do what I do. Stay home.
Should we take away speed limits on the roads...let people drive whatever speed they want and if someone does not like it...just stay home?
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Hmm that's odd - because it is precisely the countries with more government intervention that have fared best in this crisis
You'd prefer living under a Communist regime as in China?
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Marginal companies in a free market without government interference would be allowed to go broke. The better companies would survive making the country more productive.
Reassuring that your understanding of economics is on a par with your understanding of climatology and so much else. There is a common factor which is that they are both non-linear systems. Perhaps a trip to the government funded public library would help?
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You'd prefer living under a Communist regime as in China?
Mmm no but I’d be happy to move to New Zealand or Denmark.
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Mmm no but I’d be happy to move to New Zealand or Denmark.
They would let you in? No one will let us in.
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Should we take away speed limits on the roads...let people drive whatever speed they want and if someone does not like it...just stay home?
Speeding and puffing away on crack pipes - none of that pesky government intervention.
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Should we take away speed limits on the roads...let people drive whatever speed they want and if someone does not like it...just stay home?
It's up to the public. Don't they have no speed limit on the German Autobahn. What do Germans do there?
But you raise a valid point. What do you do when the freedom of one person interferes with the freedom of another in a dangerous way. Speeding and Covid do have parallels. But the comparison is do speed limits impose "undue" hardship and dangers on others? Similarly does mixing it in public to get to work hurt other people or help regarding the virus? That's a mixed bag. Plus old people like me are staying home anyway regardless if younger people work or not.Their risky behavior may not affect me unlike speeding if I have to drive regardless. Obviously, it's a call we have to make and we come down on different sides. In any case, most people seem to want to get back to normalcy of some kind. They're doing it in fits and starts. I think that's going to continue because of the nature of the problem. I just don't see the economy getting shut down like it was unless it suddenly becomes really out of hand again.
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I just don't see the economy getting shut down like it was unless it suddenly becomes really out of hand again.
You think it's not out of hand?
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It's up to the public. Don't they have no speed limit on the German Autobahn. What do Germans do there?
But you raise a valid point. What do you do when the freedom of one person interferes with the freedom of another in a dangerous way. Speeding and Covid do have parallels. But the comparison is do speed limits impose "undue" hardship and dangers on others? Similarly does mixing it in public to get to work hurt other people or help regarding the virus? That's a mixed bag.
Speeding may kill one person or a few more in other vehicles on that day. And that ends the rampage.
Whereas one person passing his virus to others is just starting an endless chain of rampage for a long time.
I'll take no speed limit before releasing a ban on tattoo parlors.
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You think it's not out of hand?
Where it becomes out of hand, then those areas are tightened up. But there's no general country-wide declaration. Each state and locality is handling it based on local conditions. America is made up of 50 sovereign states who run their states as they wish. It's not unlike Europe where each country decides individually how they want to shut down. Why is that good for Europe but not America? Why doesn't the EU impose common rules on all it's countries?
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Speeding may kill one person or a few more in other vehicles on that day. And that ends the rampage.
Whereas one person passing his virus to others is just starting an endless chain of rampage for a long time.
I'll take no speed limit before releasing a ban on tattoo parlors.
So the owner of a tattoo parlor who feeds his family with his business is not equal to a restaurant owner who feeds his family with his business? The tattooist should starve?
Frankly, I don't have any tattoos, don;t want any, and can't wait to eat out again. So I'm on your side. But how is government rules regarding this fair and equitable? Additionally, it's a lot safer with one on one in a parlor rather than a bunch pf people roaming around inside a restaurant coughing their food and wine on each other.
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So the owner of a tattoo parlor who feeds his family with his business is not equal to a restaurant owner who feeds his family with his business? The tattooist should starve?
Frankly, I don't have any tattoos, don;t want any, and can't wait to eat out again. So I'm on your side. But how is government rules regarding this fair and equitable? Additionally, it's a lot safer with one on one in a parlor rather than a bunch pf people roaming around inside a restaurant coughing their food and wine on each other.
Getting fast to a hospital or a girlfriend in a need may be essential, whereas body mutilations are non essential.
The tattoo artist could start designing naughty graphics for a stock agency and earn potentially more than hurting alive beings.
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You'd prefer living under a Communist regime as in China?
Nope, but places like South Korea and New Zealand...even Canada has faired much better.
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It's up to the public. Don't they have no speed limit on the German Autobahn. What do Germans do there?
But you raise a valid point. What do you do when the freedom of one person interferes with the freedom of another in a dangerous way. Speeding and Covid do have parallels. But the comparison is do speed limits impose "undue" hardship and dangers on others? Similarly does mixing it in public to get to work hurt other people or help regarding the virus? That's a mixed bag. Plus old people like me are staying home anyway regardless if younger people work or not.Their risky behavior may not affect me unlike speeding if I have to drive regardless. Obviously, it's a call we have to make and we come down on different sides. In any case, most people seem to want to get back to normalcy of some kind. They're doing it in fits and starts. I think that's going to continue because of the nature of the problem. I just don't see the economy getting shut down like it was unless it suddenly becomes really out of hand again.
Well it seems like things are shutting down again in the current hot spots after opening up a month ago. All those people that got back to work at bars and restaurants are once again sitting on their bums.
It's also not just old people getting sick and dying...there are more and more young folk in ICU...many will survive with scared lungs that will affect their quality of their shortened life.
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You think it's not out of hand?
You got to be blind if you think everything is under control. Hospitals full again with staff overworked...sort of like it was in NY.
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Getting fast to a hospital or a girlfriend in a need may be essential, whereas body mutilations are non essential.
The tattoo artist could start designing naughty graphics for a stock agency and earn potentially more than hurting alive beings.
I was comparing tattoos to eating out not to EMS drivers. Why should a restaurant owner feed his family but government should deny the same for the tattoo parlor owner? Eat at home. Or if you're at work, you can brown bag it and take a sandwich that your wife made. Wait. I'm being gender biased. Another government rule. This is getting too complicated. Why don't we just let individuals figure this out? If families can figure out who makes the sandwiches, couldn't we let them figure out who should stay at home or not? Is government doing any better, really?
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Nope, but places like South Korea and New Zealand...even Canada has faired much better.
You're only looking at half the picture, the side you want too. You're not looking at the people who are out of work and will lose their homes, jobs, and savings. There are two sides to a coin.
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Well it seems like things are shutting down again in the current hot spots after opening up a month ago. All those people that got back to work at bars and restaurants are once again sitting on their bums.
It's also not just old people getting sick and dying...there are more and more young folk in ICU...many will survive with scared lungs that will affect their quality of their shortened life.
Don't you think young people know this? They need the government to tell them? Don't you think they can make a reasoned judgment to try to work in spite of the possibility they may catch the virus or stay home? Does the government care more about them and their families then they do or what their needs are? People have grown up depending on the government rather then themselves. That's common in Europe where there's a lot of paternalism. Governments there have always told the people what to do. But Americans are individualists, or they use to be anyway.
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I was comparing tattoos to eating out not to EMS drivers. Why should a restaurant owner feed his family but government should deny the same for the tattoo parlor owner? Eat at home. Or if you're at work, you can brown bag it and take a sandwich that your wife made. Wait. I'm being gender biased. Another government rule. This is getting too complicated. Why don't we just let individuals figure this out? If families can figure out who makes the sandwiches, couldn't we let them figure out who should stay at home or not? Is government doing any better, really?
Because eating a salad is healthier than inflicting damage to the skin, your biggest organ. BTW, does government still give subsidies to tobacco growers?
When it comes to preparing sandwiches, it's definitely more fun to make them together. Especially in a small kitchen.
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I have been posting articles describing the economic hardships. Here are a few more. You tell me how these people are going to feed their families, pay their mortgages or rent, pay for their car rentals, pay their credit cards debts, school debts, etc. Why don't we ask them what scares them more: Covid 19 or destitution?
You only have to look in the mirror to understand why this is happening. You and I are not traveling. You and I are not going out to dinner. You and I are not going to the movies or theater. More office work is being done remotely and the is no need to wear a suit. Business attire has been changing in the absence of COVID, there is less of a requirement to wear suits which is why major menswear manufacturers were having problems as early as the 2000s. the bottom line according to one economic newsletter that I read daily is one-third of the population that has significant disposable income is NOT spending. this will not change until there is a vaccine or some guarantee that if you get COVID-19 you won't automatically end up in the hospital.
I go to some favorite restaurants to pick up dinner and there are zero patrons inside even though they have been open for business for three weeks now. People are voting to be safe and not take risks in our area. I still have a lot of friends who insist on having everything delivered. I go to the store but make sure it is early morning. I won't go into any store that is crowded and forget the shopping mall.
None of this should come as a surprise to you.
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Because eating a salad is healthier than inflicting damage to the skin, your biggest organ. BTW, does government still give subsidies to tobacco growers?
When it comes to preparing sandwiches, it's definitely more fun to make them together. Especially in a small kitchen.
You missed the point, Les. It has nothing to do with the guy getting a tattoo. You're right it doesn't matter if he skips a tattoo. But it has to do with the owner of the tattoo parlor and his employers who are out of work and can't feed their family. We're talking about someone's livelihood. It's this kind of thinking and government restrictions that makes people mad because what you're saying is that the tattooist is not worthy of his keep. That he doesn't deserve to feed his family. This is why people are revolting against the government on this issue. Because arbitrary decisions are being made by government that is taking one person's livelihood away. Yet, another person gets to keep his livelihood. Meanwhile bankers and the rich are getting billions from the government like they did in 2008. But the small businessman is told to take his family to a food kitchen if he wants them to eat.
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You only have to look in the mirror to understand why this is happening. You and I are not traveling. You and I are not going out to dinner. You and I are not going to the movies or theater. More office work is being done remotely and the is no need to wear a suit. Business attire has been changing in the absence of COVID, there is less of a requirement to wear suits which is why major menswear manufacturers were having problems as early as the 2000s. the bottom line according to one economic newsletter that I read daily is one-third of the population that has significant disposable income is NOT spending. this will not change until there is a vaccine or some guarantee that if you get COVID-19 you won't automatically end up in the hospital.
I go to some favorite restaurants to pick up dinner and there are zero patrons inside even though they have been open for business for three weeks now. People are voting to be safe and not take risks in our area. I still have a lot of friends who insist on having everything delivered. I go to the store but make sure it is early morning. I won't go into any store that is crowded and forget the shopping mall.
None of this should come as a surprise to you.
Your point is well taken. But what it shows is that we should let the free market decide. People aren't stupid. They will operate to their own benefit. They don't need government to tell them what's best for them and their families.
Instead, government is picking winners and losers. They giving billions to zombie corporations wasting precious and limited resources. They close tattoo parlors where there' less chance of getting sick and open restaurants where there's more chance. Restaurant owners are going broke anyway but maybe tattoo artists will make enough to feed their kids. If government just left people alone, people will work out the best for themselves. You and I and other old vulnerable people will stay home, skipping eating out and tattoos. Some younger people will take chances figuring that being destitute is worse than the chance of dying from the virus even if they were to get sick. Those that saved enough to live on will stay home. But let each person decide according to their needs.
Can anyone argue that government has a handle on this? They're just making it worse.
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You missed the point, Les. It has nothing to do with the guy getting a tattoo. You're right it doesn't matter if he skips a tattoo. But it has to do with the owner of the tattoo parlor and his employers who are out of work and can't feed their family. We're talking about someone's livelihood. It's this kind of thinking and government restrictions that makes people mad because what you're saying is that the tattooist is not worthy of his keep. That he doesn't deserve to feed his family. This is why people are revolting against the government on this issue. Because arbitrary decisions are being made by government that is taking one person's livelihood away. Yet, another person gets to keep his livelihood. Meanwhile bankers and the rich are getting billions from the government like they did in 2008. But the small businessman is told to take his family to a food kitchen if he wants them to eat.
Alan,
in this case you are missing the point, we definitely see it differently. Supporting businesses like tattoo parlors is stupid, unnecessary and harmful. On the other extreme, prolonging a ban on doctors who are not allowed to see their patients is also stupid, cruel and irresponsible. I agree with you that many stupid government decisions are made by incompetent bureaucrats, who care only for their jobs and perks.
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Alan,
in this case you are missing the point, we definitely see it differently. Supporting businesses like tattoo parlors is stupid, unnecessary and harmful. On the other extreme, prolonging a ban on doctors who are not allowed to see their patients is also stupid, cruel and irresponsible. I agree with you that many stupid government decisions are made by incompetent bureaucrats, who care only for their jobs and perks.
I guess tattoo artists and their customers are just deplorable.
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I guess tattoo artists and their customers are just deplorable.
I would never say that.
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I would never say that.
But you said that tattoo artist work is not valuable enough for them to feed their families. But that a restaurant owner's work is valuable enough to feed his family. I'd say more but there's no politics here.
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You're only looking at half the picture, the side you want too. You're not looking at the people who are out of work and will lose their homes, jobs, and savings. There are two sides to a coin.
I don't hear of people losing their homes or savings. Yes jobs have disappeared...but are on their way back.
Here's a choice for you. Would you rather lose your wife to Covid or you home?
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Don't you think young people know this? They need the government to tell them? Don't you think they can make a reasoned judgment to try to work in spite of the possibility they may catch the virus or stay home? Does the government care more about them and their families then they do or what their needs are? People have grown up depending on the government rather then themselves. That's common in Europe where there's a lot of paternalism. Governments there have always told the people what to do. But Americans are individualists, or they use to be anyway.
And that individualism ( selfish people ) is what got them to the disaster they are in now. People dying all over the place and the economy down the toilet...and not a good prognosis going forward.
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The money being given out now is a sugar high. It goes away.
The money doesn't go away, it circulates throughout the economy. The better the circulation, the healthier the economy. Unless of course, you bury it in the backyard or hide it under your mattress. Most people don't, they either spend it or invest it.
Taxes have to go up to pay for that debt for people and business. This reduces purchases, hurting companies and raising unemployment.
The money taken in by the government thru taxes or borrowing though the sale of bonds is not hoarded under a mattress or buried behind the Capitol. The money circulates back into the economy thru government spending. It may be spent on infrastructure project payments to contractors that recirculate the money thru worker salaries and purchase of supplies and equipment or it may go to retirement benefits which are then recirculated into the economy thru purchases for living expenses or it may be spent on thousands of other things which are of more or less benefit to the population as a whole, depending on your priorities and point of view.
I attended public schools, obtained further education from a public library, traveled to them on public roads, enjoyed leisure time in public parks and facilities. Much of it was built during the height of the Great Depression. Our public health system worked to prevent the spread of infectious disease. All of that and more were the result of government spending, paid for by taxes or borrowing. Investment in education and learning has helped to create smarter more productive workers and more creative inventors. Investments in transportation helped workers and goods get to where they needed to go promoting commerce. Investments in public health helped to insure that people were well enough to work and go to school.
All to say, I'm entirely behind the idea that government should be both efficient and effective in spending that promotes conditions in which both individuals and the society in which they live can grow, prosper, and achieve in a healthy sustainable manner. I think you would have a hard time finding many that desire inefficiency, ineffectiveness, or spending that does not benefit the public interest. The problem is that individuals will disagree on the best methods of paying for it all and what the priorities should be for spending. That's why we vote to express our views.
Debt burden is of concern to individuals, businesses, and governments. The over simplified narrative, that taxes remove money from the economy and thereby damages or reduces it, is all too easily sold to voters thru continuous repetition over many years and has been a major factor in the inability to elect a sufficient number of representatives with a sensible balanced view towards tax and spending policies. By sensible and balanced, I mean a willingness to raise enough tax revenue in an equitable fashion to provide for necessary and beneficial investment in our people and their public interests. Having too many representatives who refuse to consider any tax increases of any kind on ideological grounds and are unwilling to cut spending due to political considerations are a major roadblock to debt reduction.
In the 20th Century, government regulation helped to break up monopolies that seek to crush competition and block innovation that threatens their monopoly. And after a long history of boom and bust economic cycles which culminated in the Great Depression, government regulations to reduce fraud and establish guardrails to reduce speculation assisted in a long period of economic growth and relative stability; at least until the 90s when those regulations were chipped away by members of both parties.
I think a balanced viewpoint would see government's role in economic matters, in general or more specifically economic interventions that result from public health issues like the current pandemic, as neither inherently helpful or harmful. It has the capacity to be either one. Viewing the matter thru the narrow lens of any ideology is not helpful in finding a healthy balance. Pragmatic investment, combined with reasoned compassion, and a view toward long term public benefit would be far more helpful in making progress.
* This thread seems to be drifting into political matters. Perhaps discussions like this belong on the other thread.
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I don't hear of people losing their homes or savings. Yes jobs have disappeared...but are on their way back.
Here's a choice for you. Would you rather lose your wife to Covid or you home?
They're not on the way back. Plus, if you're business hasn't done anything for awhile, it could make it impossible to come back. The longer it goes, the harder will be to come back. Anyone in business here who'd like to add their thoughts about this would be useful.
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They're not on the way back. Plus, if you're business hasn't done anything for awhile, it could make it impossible to come back. The longer it goes, the harder will be to come back. Anyone in business here who'd like to add their thoughts about this would be useful.
But restaurants are open here and basically empty. No one feels safe enough to go out and eat. Same with the hotels...almost empty. No one feels comfortable traveling.
Now guess how people would feel if there was no lock down and we saw ten times more cases and deaths. Do you think people would just go out as normal Friday evening to the crowded bars to let out steam...or maybe they'd be locked up at home fearing for their lives.
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But you said that tattoo artist work is not valuable enough for them to feed their families. But that a restaurant owner's work is valuable enough to feed his family. I'd say more but there's no politics here.
Personally, I'm not frequenting either of these establishments, I always liked best my own home-made food. As long as the artist does his design on a paper, I'm quite comfortable with it. But if he starts piercing someone's skin and injecting foreign substances into a human body, that is not beneficial in any way. When it leads later to a trouble, innocent taxpayers have to foot the bill for tattoo removals or other treatments. If it was meant as an income for an "artist", there are hundreds of more useful and more effective ways to earn money. Or if the customer needs to impress his party guests he could get a temporary tattoo. For every party a new design.
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And that individualism ( selfish people ) is what got them to the disaster they are in now. People dying all over the place and the economy down the toilet...and not a good prognosis going forward.
Is there any information or clues why so many are dying now in Texas, Florida and California? Surely not from the cold temperatures.
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Many swines in Germany are ready to relocate into the pig heaven, but due to closures of slaughterhouses nobody is there to kill them, so they are left hanging.
(https://cdn.prod.www.spiegel.de/images/0068c536-1fa2-4757-89d2-02f2ef5f38c6_w948_r2.11_fpx46_fpy46.jpg)
Everything has been standing still at the headquarters of Germany's largest pig slaughterhouse for over two weeks. At the Tönnies plant in Rheda-Wiedenbrück, between 12 and 14 percent of German pigs are actually slaughtered, according to the interest group of pig keepers in Germany (ISN). However, the location will remain largely closed until at least July 17, because numerous employees had contracted the corona virus.
https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/mensch/schweine-im-toennies-skandal-bestellt-aber-nicht-abgeholt-a-5cca3be3-4669-4bf1-b31a-6029a755573e
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Paulo, Why don't you include graphs as well that show unemployment rates and how many people aren't making money and able to feed their families? Don't you think those are important facts as well? Paulo, Why don't you include graphs as well that show unemployment rates and how many people aren't making money and able to feed their families? Don't you think those are important facts as well?
Of course they are important. Everything is connected. But we are discussing the science on this thread. Portugal will be hit by the most serious economic crisis since 1928, this year the estimate of to have a deficit of ~10%. Many countries are being affected. I am sure there are many graphs available for economic indicators, and they will be all bad.
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Don't you think young people know this? They need the government to tell them? Don't you think they can make a reasoned judgment to try to work in spite of the possibility they may catch the virus or stay home? Does the government care more about them and their families then they do or what their needs are? People have grown up depending on the government rather then themselves. That's common in Europe where there's a lot of paternalism. Governments there have always told the people what to do. But Americans are individualists, or they use to be anyway.
The problem with this resurgence of the virus in young people is that they di not caught it in work. They caught it by gathering in covid-parties, getting together by the hundreds while drinking with total disregard for their safety and the safety of others. For example yesterday in Albufeira (Portugal, Algarve) hundreds of young dutch people flooded the bars and crowded the streets getting drunk, no respect for social distance or mask wearing.
We see the same in Belgium, UK, lots of places.
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We will need more data, but there are areas of New York City with very high numbers of people who were infected by COVID-19. As the New York Tijmes notes, some parts of Queens show 68% of people testing positive for antibodies. Maybe it's time to move back to the city. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-antibodies.html
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Where it becomes out of hand, then those areas are tightened up.
That seems to be working well.
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I have just issued yet another ban to someone for introducing politics into this thread, and deleted the relevant (or irrelevant) post. Some discussion of economics is permissible, falling as it does within "damage limitation". Specific political comment is not; I will not permit this thread to go the way of the other, as I have made clear.
Jeremy
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We will need more data, but there are areas of New York City with very high numbers of people who were infected by COVID-19. As the New York Tijmes notes, some parts of Queens show 68% of people testing positive for antibodies. Maybe it's time to move back to the city. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-antibodies.html
It seems that no matter what we do, the virus will progress through all the neighborhoods. So pay now or pay more later which is what I've been saying. I think we're going to find out that all of this hiding out will be for nought. Sure, while you hide, you're safe. But as soon as you come out, it starts spreading again. Or maybe a second wave will get you. Those already exposed, might have herd immunity. By the way, I'm from Queens.
From your article:
"At a clinic in Corona, a working-class neighborhood in Queens, more than 68 percent of people tested positive for antibodies to the new coronavirus. At another clinic in Jackson Heights, Queens, that number was 56 percent. But at a clinic in Cobble Hill, a mostly white and wealthy neighborhood in Brooklyn, only 13 percent of people tested positive for antibodies.
...But now, as the city braces for a possible second wave of the virus, some of those vulnerabilities may flip, with the affluent neighborhoods becoming most at risk of a surge. According to antibody test results from CityMD that were shared with The New York Times, some neighborhoods were so exposed to the virus during the peak of the epidemic in March and April that they might have some protection during a second wave.
“Some communities might have herd immunity,” said Dr. Daniel Frogel, a senior vice president for operations at CityMD, which plays a key role in the city’s testing program.
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It seems that no matter what we do, the virus will progress through all the neighborhoods. So pay now or pay more later which is what I've been saying. I think we're going to find out that all of this hiding out will be for nought. Sure, while you hide, you're safe. But as soon as you come out, it starts spreading again. Or maybe a second wave will get you. Those already exposed, might have herd immunity. By the way, I'm from Queens.
From your article:
"At a clinic in Corona, a working-class neighborhood in Queens, more than 68 percent of people tested positive for antibodies to the new coronavirus. At another clinic in Jackson Heights, Queens, that number was 56 percent. But at a clinic in Cobble Hill, a mostly white and wealthy neighborhood in Brooklyn, only 13 percent of people tested positive for antibodies.
...But now, as the city braces for a possible second wave of the virus, some of those vulnerabilities may flip, with the affluent neighborhoods becoming most at risk of a surge. According to antibody test results from CityMD that were shared with The New York Times, some neighborhoods were so exposed to the virus during the peak of the epidemic in March and April that they might have some protection during a second wave.
“Some communities might have herd immunity,” said Dr. Daniel Frogel, a senior vice president for operations at CityMD, which plays a key role in the city’s testing program.
You don't have to hide...just be smart out there. Wear masks, stay away from people if possible and always wash hands when you can. It's just the majority of the people are not smart and then we have the issues we are seeing today. It's no secret how other countries controlled the virus.
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You don't have to hide...just be smart out there. Wear masks, stay away from people if possible and always wash hands when you can. It's just the majority of the people are not smart and then we have the issues we are seeing today. It's no secret how other countries controlled the virus.
THIS!! Honestly, public health is not rocket science. It's just that a bunch of people have made it into a political issue. I have never been an opponent of keeping things in a full lockdown. I am a proponent of physical distancing and wearing masks. If businesses took those two things seriously we would be better off.
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I bet you are wondering whether sending your kids to summer camp this summer was a good idea. Well, we now have an answer. Kamp Kanakuk in Missouri has shut down after more than 80 kids and staffers from ten states became infected with the coronavirus. Parents can pick up their Darwin Awards in person at camp headquarters.
https://nypost.com/2020/07/09/missouri-sleepaway-camp-closes-after-82-kids-staff-get-coronavirus/
When did you say schools were opening?
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I bet you are wondering whether sending your kids to summer camp this summer was a good idea. Well, we now have an answer. Kamp Kanakuk in Missouri has shut down after more than 80 kids and staffers from ten states became infected with the coronavirus. Parents can pick up their Darwin Awards in person at camp headquarters.
https://nypost.com/2020/07/09/missouri-sleepaway-camp-closes-after-82-kids-staff-get-coronavirus/
When did you say schools were opening?
I just returned from my dentist. Supposedly he took all approved action to make himself, staff and facilities safe. We'll find out in a few days if that was so. I'm keeping my fingers crossed.
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You don't have to hide...just be smart out there. Wear masks, stay away from people if possible and always wash hands when you can. It's just the majority of the people are not smart and then we have the issues we are seeing today. It's no secret how other countries controlled the virus.
You missed the whole point of the article and my post. High initial rates in communities might mean they have reached herd immunity and will be protected from subsequent waves. They can start living their lives more or less normally while the rest of us walk around in fear waiting for the axe to drop.
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You missed the whole point of the article and my post. High initial rates in communities might mean they have reached herd immunity and will be protected from subsequent waves. They can start living their lives more or less normally while the rest of us walk around in fear waiting for the axe to drop.
Yeh...until Joe Blow from Idaho which is still rampant with Covid visits your town and sits next to you at the bar having a beer.
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You missed the whole point of the article and my post. High initial rates in communities might mean they have reached herd immunity and will be protected from subsequent waves. They can start living their lives more or less normally while the rest of us walk around in fear waiting for the axe to drop.
The problem is that at least 60% infection rate will be needed for herd immunity. Current US-wide infection rate is 0.9% We have a long road ahead and it really doesn't matter if your community has herd immunity given how easy it is to travel from one point in the US to another. Nobody other than those who have demonstrably recovered can live lives normally and even then it's hard with so many places closed.
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High initial rates in communities might mean they have reached herd immunity and will be protected from subsequent waves.
I don't know what the health message is in the US but our Chief Medical Officer said Herd Immunity doesn't work at about the end of March. Herd Immunity basically means that everyone gets it, so with a usual 1% mortality rate that would mean 3 million dead in the US. It might mean that your kids become immune but it doesn't sound like a workable plan to me.
What works is washing your hands, social distancing and if you don't need to go out, then stay at home.
Most of Australia has been clean for some time but we just had an outbreak in Melbourne (5 million people). Only about 150 cases but they have closed the city at a radius of about 40Km and NSW has closed the border to the state of Victoria using 1000 police and army. Hope it works and quickly, as we have just opened up most businesses.
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What works is washing your hands, social distancing and if you don't need to go out, then stay at home.
That makes a lot of sense, but a lot of noise is generated about the surface transmission, and many retail/online companies are fueling this theory, scarring the shoppers and receiving windfall by offering the contactless shopping. Are there any reliable statistics breaking down the spread methods of the virus?
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a lot of noise is generated about the surface transmission, and many retail/online companies are fueling this theory, scarring the shoppers and receiving windfall by offering the contactless shopping. Are there any reliable statistics breaking down the spread methods of the virus?
Absent some sort of accident—e.g., in a lab where tests were being performed on live virus samples—it's not evident to me how it would even be possible to perform contact-tracing of fomite transmission. Chances are the evidence would disappear long before the contact-tracer arrived on the scene.
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That makes a lot of sense, but a lot of noise is generated about the surface transmission, and many retail/online companies are fueling this theory, scarring the shoppers and receiving windfall by offering the contactless shopping. Are there any reliable statistics breaking down the spread methods of the virus?
I don't know about statistics, but there is plenty of published information on the life of the virus on various surfaces. Cardboard is one of he worst at about three days. That is one of the reasons why washing of hands is so important.
In Australia every food shop at least wipes the bench after every sale. All shops must supply sanitiser. I have hardly used cash since the March and a lot of shops won't take cash.
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I don't know about statistics, but there is plenty of published information on the life of the virus on various surfaces. Cardboard is one of he worst at about three days. That is one of the reasons why washing of hands is so important.
In Australia every food shop at least wipes the bench after every sale. All shops must supply sanitiser. I have hardly used cash since the March and a lot of shops won't take cash.
The above information is valid, and the stores are much cleaner now than before the outbreak, but it all still falls in the theoretical realm.
It would be interesting to know how prevalent are the actual infections resulting from touching surfaces, compared with the transmissions by droplets or air.
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I have read a lot of the papers on viral transmission (archive is: https://agoldhammer.com/covid_19/ ). the major route of transmission continues to be aerosols. Personally, I don't think contact transmission is a big issue unless someone spit a huge load of virus onto a surface and you then touched it and licked your fingers. the lab work is just that, lab studies. they are able to culture virus under those conditions and that likely does not resemble real life. Paper and a cardboard may be harboring virus in the fibers but it is not easily transmitted via that manner. I do not worry about the daily mail or the newspaper. I go to buy groceries twice a week and have picked up food to take home from restaurants, etc. I always wear a mask and don't go into crowded stores. I wash my hands when I get home. I find this to be a reasonable precaution.
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Cardboard is 24 hours.
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Cardboard is 24 hours.
As Alan G says - unless you plan to lick it, don't worry.
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New York City reports zero COVID-19 deaths for first time since pandemic hit
https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watch/506983-nyc-reports-zero-coronavirus-deaths-for-first-time-since-start-of
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Alan G. I found an anti Covid products on a list from American Chemistry Council's (ACC) Center for Biocide Chemistries (CBC) http://www.afdo.org/resources/Documents/COVID19/COVID19List382020.pdf The product I looked for is on this list but not on the EPA list https://www.epa.gov/pesticide-registration/list-n-disinfectants-use-against-sars-cov-2-covid-19
Here's the product. EPA Reg 6836-340-75399 Wipes Plus
Can we trust the ACC list?
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it is on the EPA list per the registration number. Follow the web page instructions to search.
10 minute wet contact time to kill adequately.
common for many non chlorine disinfectants.
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it is on the EPA list per the registration number. Follow the web page instructions to search.
10 minute wet contact time to kill adequately.
common for many non chlorine disinfectants.
The number came up but for a different product. What was the link you used?
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the EPA registration number is for the solution and is registered by the manufacturer after testing. If the product, even with a different "vendor" uses that registration number, then it is supposed to be the same stuff and is just a re-branding of the solution from the manufacturer.
Here are the guidelines -
List N: Disinfectants for Use Against SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19)
View List N's information in our new tool
List N Web App tool
All products on this list meet EPA’s criteria for use against SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19.
Finding a Product
To find a product, enter the first two sets of its EPA registration number into the search bar below. You can find this number by looking for the EPA Reg. No. on the product label.
For example, if EPA Reg. No. 12345-12 is on List N, you can buy EPA Reg. No. 12345-12-2567 and know you’re getting an equivalent product.
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Coronavirus immunity can start to fade away within weeks
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-new-uk-study-shows-antibodies-fade-after-three-weeks-2020-7
This does not sound very promising.
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Coronavirus immunity can start to fade away within weeks
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-new-uk-study-shows-antibodies-fade-after-three-weeks-2020-7
This does not sound very promising.
Are there other mechanisms besides anti-bodies that the body can use to fight off infection? On the face of it, this sounds like we might not be able to rely on herd immunity.
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As Alan G says - unless you plan to lick it, don't worry.
Not so. Touch the cardboard, then touch your face, and you can get infected.
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Not so. Touch the cardboard, then touch your face, and you can get infected.
Yes, the physical possibility is there. But a lot of things have to happen, someone with a viral on their hands has to touch something and leave some virus behind on it, the surface has to be hospitable to the virus for some period of time, then someone has to come along and touch the still intact virus and then touch their face before washing their hands. It can happen of course, easy to imagine in a workplace, for example, where there is frequent traffic at some particular location (coffee machine?), but I can see that it's a much less probable form of transmission.
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Yes, the physical possibility is there. ..... but I can see that it's a much less probable form of transmission.
Why?
To catch the virus off someone you have to at least be in the same place at the same time as the person with the virus.
To catch the virus off something they have touched the person with the virus can be long gone, perhaps by days.
You receive a parcel and anyone along the chain could have been infected or you go to a pub and use a coaster that someone else has touched. (That is why there are no coasters now.)
The answer is to wash your hands often, especially after touching something that you don't know where it has been.
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Why?
To catch the virus off someone you have to at least be in the same place at the same time as the person with the virus.
To catch the virus off something they have touched the person with the virus can be long gone, perhaps by days.
You receive a parcel and anyone along the chain could have been infected or you go to a pub and use a coaster that someone else has touched. (That is why there are no coasters now.)
The answer is to wash your hands often, especially after touching something that you don't know where it has been.
That's right...but you are in control. Don't touch your face and wash your hands whenever you can. Unlike when someone infected sneezes a foot away from you as they lean in to get that tomato at the grocery store. Now, wearing a mask should help you, but unless it's n95 caliber, there is no guarantees.
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That's right...but you are in control. Don't touch your face and wash your hands whenever you can. Unlike when someone infected sneezes a foot away from you as they lean in to get that tomato at the grocery store. Now, wearing a mask should help you, but unless it's n95 caliber, there is no guarantees.
To some extent, but the person sneezing has to wear the mask. Masks don't protect the wearer really, as you can get infected through the eyes. Masks can become a source of infection themselves.
Doctors wear masks to protect the patient. If the patient is infected they wear full protection.
(I am reminded about wearing a full face helmet and sneezing when I used to ride a motorcycle.)
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Yes, the physical possibility is there. But a lot of things have to happen, someone with a viral on their hands has to touch something and leave some virus behind on it, the surface has to be hospitable to the virus for some period of time, then someone has to come along and touch the still intact virus and then touch their face before washing their hands. It can happen of course, easy to imagine in a workplace, for example, where there is frequent traffic at some particular location (coffee machine?), but I can see that it's a much less probable form of transmission.
No one really knows for sure just how dangerous it is. If it has no danger, why are the experts talking about these things? Frankly, you're just guessing. But then again, most of the experts are guessing too.
I was picking up food at a grocery. The kid was dropping all the bags in the trunk of my car. I could see in my rear view mirror that his mask was pulled down below his nose. Her reached up and wiped it with the back of his hand and then continued to load the rest of the bags. When I got home a few minutes later, and had to take the bags out of the car, I naturally was careful and sanitized my hands afterwards. But who really knows just how often the virus is spread by this kind of touch.
When I checked into a building in Manhattan, I had to fill out a form that swore I wasn't in infected lands or had been recently infected. They checked my temperature. They handed my a pen to sign the sworn form. Right next to the form was disinfectant hand lotion because obviously, everyone had been using the same pen. I used it too. Would you lick your finger after using that pen before using the disinfectant?
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I was picking up food at a grocery. The kid was dropping all the bags in the trunk of my car. I could see in my rear view mirror that his mask was pulled down below his nose. Her reached up and wiped it with the back of his hand and then continued to load the rest of the bags.
And that's only what you saw. Who knows what else are those employees doing when you don't see them?
I prefer to browse the isles, take time to look at the produce, and pick whatever looks fresh or is on special. For four months now, I've been taking advantage of the supermarket early senior hour. At that time, I can park close to the entrance door, in the whole store there are only 5-6 people, dispersed safely at great distances throughout the store, I'm the only one at the cash register, the cashier is behind a plexiglass barrier, so we don't even need the masks. OTOH, I put on the mask when in the dentist's waiting room.
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No one really knows for sure just how dangerous it is. If it has no danger, why are the experts talking about these things? Frankly, you're just guessing. But then again, most of the experts are guessing too.
I was only responding to the reports that this seems to be the case, that it is a less frequent method of transmission. I'm not quite understanding why this is controversial.
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I was only responding to the reports that this seems to be the case, that it is a less frequent method of transmission. I'm not quite understanding why this is controversial.
Too many experts; too many opinions. They were going to open California. Oops.
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Too many experts; too many opinions. They were going to open California. Oops.
And guess who is pushing for these openings...you only have one guess. And if you guess right on the first question...you have a bonus question. Guess who is pushing to reopen schools without a plan. Bingo...the bozzo.
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And guess who is pushing for these openings...you only have one guess. And if you guess right on the first question...you have a bonus question. Guess who is pushing to reopen schools without a plan. Bingo...the bozzo.
Trump said: “In Germany, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and many other countries, SCHOOLS ARE OPEN WITH NO PROBLEMS. The Dems think it would be bad for them politically if U.S. schools open before the November Election, but is important for the children & families. May cut off funding if not open!” he said.
Is it true about schools in those European countries? Obviously, America is a big country and there's a lot less cases now where I live in New Jersey. So while we may be able to open here in NJ, California may have to wait until the cases go down.
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And guess who is pushing for these openings...you only have one guess. And if you guess right on the first question...you have a bonus question. Guess who is pushing to reopen schools without a plan. Bingo...the bozzo.
Perilously close to politics. Warning. Don't force me to suspend you yet again.
Jeremy
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Perilously close to politics. Warning. Don't force me to suspend you yet again.
Jeremy
I've seen the words dems and rep and even Trump posted here...which are directly political. Patrol things with an even keel.
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Coronavirus immunity can start to fade away within weeks
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-new-uk-study-shows-antibodies-fade-after-three-weeks-2020-7
This does not sound very promising.
It's close to meaningless. The immune system can still retain the 'memory' of infection and mount an immune response quickly upon new exposure. The immune system is complex and there are a number of different types of response.
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It's close to meaningless. The immune system can still retain the 'memory' of infection and mount an immune response quickly upon new exposure. The immune system is complex and there are a number of different types of response.
I agree. We should be immune. The problem is if it mutates like the seasonal flu changes every year. Or the common cold. Can you imagine having to put up with this every year?
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I agree. We should be immune. The problem is if it mutates like the seasonal flu changes every year. Or the common cold. Can you imagine having to put up with this every year?
Well, if the Moderna vaccine works as promised, we can party, go to the beach, and stay immune to the virus.
Moderna Inc's experimental vaccine for COVID-19 showed it was safe and provoked immune responses in all 45 healthy volunteers in an ongoing early-stage study, U.S. researchers reported on Tuesday. No study volunteers experienced a serious side effect, but more than half reported mild or moderate reactions such as fatigue, headache, chills, muscle aches or pain at the injection site. These were more likely to occur after the second dose and in people who got the highest dose,
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/moderna-phase-1-results-show-210000747.html
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Cross your fingers. I think phase 3 trials are starting in less than a couple weeks.
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Cross your fingers. I think phase 3 trials are starting in less than a couple weeks.
A Moderna guy said on CNBC that because of the surging virus, they expect to have some pretty valid information quickly. That's unlike the reported situation in the UK where the Oxford group suggested that a drop in infection rates might slow the returns.
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Cross your fingers. I think phase 3 trials are starting in less than a couple weeks.
Yes, fingers well and truly crossed.
A safe and effective vaccine is our only exit strategy.
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A Moderna guy said on CNBC that because of the surging virus, they expect to have some pretty valid information quickly. That's unlike the reported situation in the UK where the Oxford group suggested that a drop in infection rates might slow the returns.
The Oxford vaccine is being tested in Brazil and South Africa. They will get good data from each of those countries. The Pfizer mRNA vaccine is superior to the Moderna one from what I have seen of the data.
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it gets worse in the US; numbers of 15th july
1000 deaths; 70.000 new infections and many states affected
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
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it gets worse in the US; numbers of 15th july
100 deaths; 70.000 new infections and many states affected
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
Your link shows America tested 45 million people or 13.5% of our population. So cases would be up. We're testing more.
Here's a better graph that show deaths and cases by date for each state in the US, the whole country and the other countries is the world.
https://www.google.com/search?q=covid+deaths+by+date&rlz=1C1PQCZ_enUS902US902&oq=covid+deaths+by+date&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l7.10915j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
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Your link shows America tested 45 million people or 13.5% of our population. So cases would be up. We're testing more.
Here's a better graph that show deaths and cases by date for each state in the US, the whole country and the other countries is the world.
https://www.google.com/search?q=covid+deaths+by+date&rlz=1C1PQCZ_enUS902US902&oq=covid+deaths+by+date&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l7.10915j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
What also is up is the % positive test cases which is a key number. In places like Florida it used to be something like 5%...now it's jumped over 20%.
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A friend of mine co-authored this very clear and concise piece.
(Jeremy: Let me know if this belongs in the political playpen)
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/07/15/why-criticism-dr-anthony-fauci-over-covid-19-misguided-column/5441749002
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What also is up is the % positive test cases which is a key number. In places like Florida it used to be something like 5%...now it's jumped over 20%.
Florida positive numbers are screwed. A bunch of testing locations only posted positive case numbers, and not the negative numbers, which lead to the positive result for that location ot be 100%. Investigation showed that many were less that 10% instead of 100%. So take the positive rate for Florida with a grain of salt.
On an interesting side note I had a family member tell me, that her neighbor and her son had been with her father who is 90 and tested positive. The neighbor was tested and came back negative, her son had an appointment to be tested but canceled. A week later he got a letter from the testing company saying he had tested positive. Go figure.
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Florida positive numbers are screwed. A bunch of testing locations only posted positive case numbers, and not the negative numbers, which lead to the positive result for that location ot be 100%. Investigation showed that many were less that 10% instead of 100%. So take the positive rate for Florida with a grain of salt.
On an interesting side note I had a family member tell me, that her neighbor and her son had been with her father who is 90 and tested positive. The neighbor was tested and came back negative, her son had an appointment to be tested but canceled. A week later he got a letter from the testing company saying he had tested positive. Go figure.
Sure, but the 15,000 positive cases do not lie.
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And why is it that no number no matter how it's collected or reported can never be trusted? Without real data you are flying by the seat of your pants.
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And why is it that no number no matter how it's collected or reported can never be trusted? Without real data you are flying by the seat of your pants.
Lies, damn lies and statistics. :)
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Your link shows America tested 45 million people or 13.5% of our population. So cases would be up. We're testing more.
Here's a better graph that show deaths and cases by date for each state in the US, the whole country and the other countries is the world.
https://www.google.com/search?q=covid+deaths+by+date&rlz=1C1PQCZ_enUS902US902&oq=covid+deaths+by+date&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l7.10915j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
That logic is flawed. Number of tests does not represent number of people tested. Often 2 tests are required to confirm + cases, and two tests to confirm - cases.
Also, the percentage of positive results in 100 tests in the US is much higher than in other countries, which means the infection is still very active.
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Lies, damn lies and statistics. :)
Please stop repeating this nonsense.
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Lies, damn lies and statistics. :)
[moderator: political comment removed. kers, final warning]
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Your link shows America tested 45 million people or 13.5% of our population. So cases would be up. We're testing more.
Here's a better graph that show deaths and cases by date for each state in the US, the whole country and the other countries is the world.
https://www.google.com/search?q=covid+deaths+by+date&rlz=1C1PQCZ_enUS902US902&oq=covid+deaths+by+date&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l7.10915j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
even more death on google- your link
15 juli - 1413 deaths... the graph is not looking well at all
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Meanwhile Covid continues to take a toll on the economy. In America, another 1 million plus people were laid off last week and filed for unemployment insurance. That means that businesses are still laying off. Those have to be other than service jobs since they were laid off weeks ago. That means better paying jobs are going, office workers, etc. There's no recovery.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/16/weekly-jobless-claims.html
In Europe, I can't find meaningful recent data. Does anyone have a link?
In Australia, they're misrepresenting it, claiming about 7% but really about 13%. In America they're lying too. It's much worse. I went to Manhattan last week. There were no buses, no taxis, no delivery trucks, and practically no people on the streets. Is everyone on Zoom working at home? The office building in normally packed Midtown I went into had one other person I saw go in when I did. I was the only person on the elevator going up and down. It was like a ghost town like the scene from I Am Legend movie.
Australia real numbers. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PaDXqYXkHjc
America real numbers http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts
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Meanwhile Covid continues to take a toll on the economy. In America, another 1 million plus people were laid off last week and filed for unemployment insurance. That means that businesses are still laying off. Those have to be other than service jobs since they were laid off weeks ago. That means better paying jobs are going, office workers, etc. There's no recovery.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/16/weekly-jobless-claims.html
In Europe, I can't find meaningful recent data. Does anyone have a link?
In Australia, they're misrepresenting it, claiming about 7% but really about 13%. In America they're lying too. It's much worse. I went to Manhattan last week. There were no buses, no taxis, no delivery trucks, and practically no people on the streets. Is everyone on Zoom working at home? The office building in normally packed Midtown I went into had one other person I saw go in when I did. I was the only person on the elevator going up and down. It was like a ghost town like the scene from I Am Legend movie.
Australia real numbers. https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PaDXqYXkHjc
America real numbers http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts
The countries that controlled the contagion better are re-opening their economies.
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The countries that controlled the contagion better are re-opening their economies.
The problem is as soon as they do, the rate starts going up because the virus starts to spread all over again. It's a dire situation. New York and New Jersey where I live are starting to open up. We'll see how successful we are. I doubt it will stay down even though we've done a great job really getting the numbers down. Meanwhile, my wife and I are staying protected for the most part although I was out photographing yesterday in a deserted area until another photographer showed up. We're going to wait and see what happens and let others take chances and be the guinea pigs. At our age and condition, we can't take too many chances.
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The problem is as soon as they do, the rate starts going up because the virus starts to spread all over again. It's a dire situation. ...
At the moment Europe is getting better and people are moving again between countries;
If you look at the stats only Russia is a real problem and probably much worse than the stats let you believe.
What yet not has opened in the Netherlands: discotheques; large events; universities...
Restaurants, cinema's and bars are open since juli 1 but with respect to 1.5 m distance between family/groups and in public transport it is also obliged to wear masks.
At the moment it goes well... we will have to see how things develop when people come back from holiday.
Anyway our economy is at 2/3 i guess...
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Sure, but the 15,000 positive cases do not lie.
Don't try and move the goalposts.
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At the moment Europe is getting better and people are moving again between countries;
If you look at the stats only Russia is a real problem and probably much worse than the stats let you believe.
What yet not has opened in the Netherlands: discotheques; large events; universities...
Restaurants, cinema's and bars are open since juli 1 but with respect to 1.5 m distance between family/groups and in public transport it is also obliged to wear masks.
At the moment it goes well... we will have to see how things develop when people come back from holiday.
Anyway our economy is at 2/3 i guess...
Is unemployment in the Netherlands only 4.3%? We'd consider that full employment in America. What kind of unemployment benefits are they giving there? Here, people out of work are making more money because of government handouts than when they were working. Who needs to work? What a country!? Only in America. :)
https://dutchreview.com/coronavirus/404000-people-now-unemployed-in-the-netherlands-cbs-reports/
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A friend of mine co-authored this very clear and concise piece.
(Jeremy: Let me know if this belongs in the political playpen)
https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/07/15/why-criticism-dr-anthony-fauci-over-covid-19-misguided-column/5441749002
No, it's apolitical. It has a rather charmingly naïve view of "facts", but that's a separate matter.
Jeremy
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No, it's apolitical. It has a rather charmingly naïve view of "facts", but that's a separate matter.
Jeremy
You're posts, Peter, are always welcome in my political thread. All speech is appreciated, political or apolitical. We're free thinkers over there. :)
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The problem is as soon as they do, the rate starts going up because the virus starts to spread all over again. It's a dire situation. New York and New Jersey where I live are starting to open up. We'll see how successful we are. I doubt it will stay down even though we've done a great job really getting the numbers down. Meanwhile, my wife and I are staying protected for the most part although I was out photographing yesterday in a deserted area until another photographer showed up. We're going to wait and see what happens and let others take chances and be the guinea pigs. At our age and condition, we can't take too many chances.
Social distance, wear masks, wash your hands. If people consider this infringing onto their civil liberties and don't follow these very simple guides...then yeah...you will be in a whole shit load of trouble upon opening up.
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Don't try and move the goalposts.
Not moving any posts. More positive cases...more hospitalizations...more deaths. We see all these 3 occurring which leads me to believe a high rate of positive tests...much more than the % Florida was at just a while ago.
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The problem is as soon as they do, the rate starts going up because the virus starts to spread all over again. It's a dire situation. New York and New Jersey where I live are starting to open up. We'll see how successful we are. I doubt it will stay down even though we've done a great job really getting the numbers down. Meanwhile, my wife and I are staying protected for the most part although I was out photographing yesterday in a deserted area until another photographer showed up. We're going to wait and see what happens and let others take chances and be the guinea pigs. At our age and condition, we can't take too many chances.
Of course after reopening the numbers would go up. What is important is to plan accordingly, which clearly was not done in several countries. In Portugal, which is considered now by several EU countries as a "red" trafiic light destination (meaning if you come here you need to quarantine once you go back home), the situation is clearly controlled. Even in the greater Lisbon area, where 3million people live, number of new cases is slowly going down. Now we know that the government did not plan very well, because there were not enough people to make the fast enquiries to trace the contacts of infected people. This is compounded by the fact that there are about 100 nationalities living in the area, often in housing conditions that are not good to keep infected people in isolation. The whole problem is clearly more than a health issue: it has social, economic, and work ramifications that need to be tackled by integrated teams. Thankfully, most new cases are assymptomatic, unfortunately we see some come back on caring homes being infected again.
We are now preparing for a possible second wave in the winter, hiring more health staff and even a Portuguese ventilator has been developed and approved by the repsective heatlh agency.
Otherwise, people are enjoying life again, taking the necessary precautions and following the 3 Cs rule: avoid crowded spaces, avoid close contacts, avoid closed spaces. And wear a mask.
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Last 24 hours:
USA - 67717 new cases, 933 deaths
Last 7 days:
USA: 390312 new cases
Deaths/100000 inhabitants:
USA: 42
Brasil: 36
UK: 68
Mexico: 29
Italy: 58
France: 45
Spain: 61
India: 2
Peru: 39
Source: https://qap.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/COVID-19.html
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Last 24 hours:
USA - 67717 new cases, 933 deaths
Last 7 days:
USA: 390312 new cases
Deaths/100000 inhabitants:
USA: 42
Brasil: 36
UK: 68
Mexico: 29
Italy: 58
France: 45
Spain: 61
India: 2
Peru: 39
Source: https://qap.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/COVID-19.html
Yet another UK world-beater.
:-(
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Last 24 hours:
USA - 67717 new cases, 933 deaths
Last 7 days:
USA: 390312 new cases
Deaths/100000 inhabitants:
USA: 42
Brasil: 36
UK: 68
Mexico: 29
Italy: 58
France: 45
Spain: 61
India: 2
Peru: 39
Source: https://qap.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/COVID-19.html
Vietnam: 0
https://www.google.com/search?q=covid+deaths+in+vietnam&oq=covid+deaths+in+vie&aqs=chrome.0.0j69i57j0l6.8263j0j4&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
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Not moving any posts. More positive cases...more hospitalizations...more deaths. We see all these 3 occurring which leads me to believe a high rate of positive tests...much more than the % Florida was at just a while ago.
Yea, right...
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Trump said: “In Germany, Denmark, Norway, Sweden and many other countries, SCHOOLS ARE OPEN WITH NO PROBLEMS. The Dems think it would be bad for them politically if U.S. schools open before the November Election, but is important for the children & families. May cut off funding if not open!” he said.
Interesting.
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Yea, right...
So you are saying the % positive tests have not gone up in Florida? Proof...
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So you are saying the % positive tests have not gone up in Florida? Proof...
Moving the goalposts once again see. Better luck next time.
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Moving the goalposts once again see. Better luck next time.
Talk...talk...talk, but no action. Come to expect this from you.
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Last 24 hours:
USA - 67717 new cases, 933 deaths
Last 7 days:
USA: 390312 new cases
Deaths/100000 inhabitants:
USA: 42
Brasil: 36
UK: 68
Mexico: 29
Italy: 58
France: 45
Spain: 61
India: 2
Peru: 39
Source: https://qap.ecdc.europa.eu/public/extensions/COVID-19/COVID-19.html
The US will soon pass all of those countries in Europe on the current trend. The US has 4 times the new cases and twice the new deaths of Europe each day, even though Europe has more than twice the population.
.
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Comparing today's US counts with Canada:
US - 66,482 new cases, 866 deaths. 329 million people,
Canada - 435 new cases, 15 deaths. 35 million people
Per capita, US had today about 6 times more deaths than Canada
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Comparing today's US counts with Canada:
US - 66,482 new cases, 866 deaths. 329 million people,
Canada - 435 new cases, 15 deaths. 35 million people
Per capita, US had today about 6 times more deaths than Canada
Last 24 hours USA reported 77255 new cases... even if these days the death rate of the virus is lower than it was, the potential for future deaths in large numbers is very real, unfortunately.
On another note, I was surprised to learn that today the use of masks in closed spaces is not yet mandatory in France and the UK.
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On another note, I was surprised to learn that today the use of masks in closed spaces is not yet mandatory in France and the UK.
It will become mandatory to wear masks in some shops in the UK on July 24. Quite why that date, and why only some shops is a matter for another thread - we don't want to upset anyone. Mask use in France (Paris at least) is pretty widespread, whatever the actual law - much more so than in the UK.
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No, it's apolitical. It has a rather charmingly naïve view of "facts", but that's a separate matter.
Jeremy
For example ... ?
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It will become mandatory to wear masks in some shops in the UK on July 24. Quite why that date, and why only some shops is a matter for another thread - we don't want to upset anyone. Mask use in France (Paris at least) is pretty widespread, whatever the actual law - much more so than in the UK.
Wait for the UK to play catchup.
Italy
Bus drivers in Rome are learning martial arts to defend themselves from the kicks and punches of passengers who refuse to wear masks.
A drivers’ union is offering courses in Krav Maga, an Israeli self-defence technique that blends boxing and karate. Italians have been generally cooperative with rules requiring them to wear masks in shops and on public transport but some bus passengers in Rome have proved an exception.
About 40 drivers have been assaulted in the past month and 30 are insulted daily by passengers, most of whom become enraged when told to put a mask on. This week a furious woman smashed the plexiglass barrier behind a driver after he stopped the bus and refused to set off until she put her mask on.
Earlier this month a bus driver in France died after he was attacked by passengers who refused to wear masks. “In Rome the number of assaults and insults is double the rate pre-Covid and we don’t want a death like in France,” Claudio de Francesco, the union leader, said.
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Wait for the UK to play catchup.
Italy
Bus drivers in Rome are learning martial arts to defend themselves from the kicks and punches of passengers who refuse to wear masks.
A drivers’ union is offering courses in Krav Maga, an Israeli self-defence technique that blends boxing and karate. Italians have been generally cooperative with rules requiring them to wear masks in shops and on public transport but some bus passengers in Rome have proved an exception.
About 40 drivers have been assaulted in the past month and 30 are insulted daily by passengers, most of whom become enraged when told to put a mask on. This week a furious woman smashed the plexiglass barrier behind a driver after he stopped the bus and refused to set off until she put her mask on.
Earlier this month a bus driver in France died after he was attacked by passengers who refused to wear masks. “In Rome the number of assaults and insults is double the rate pre-Covid and we don’t want a death like in France,” Claudio de Francesco, the union leader, said.
I thought all the crazies were in the US.
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I thought all the crazies were in the US.
There's crazy and crazy.
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I've never been overly impressed by Ctein (http://ctein.com/whoami.htm)'s photography or his controversial post-processing theory―he argues that letting the printer manage colors is preferable to soft-proofing―but he is an intelligent guy and his essay on the coronavirus that was reprinted on Mike Johnston's The Online Photographer (https://tinyurl.com/y228evwn) website struck me as offering a rather lucid metaphor, one that should be accessible to just about anyone, for the rationale behind employing the techniques currently supported by the evidence for bringing the pandemic under control. Well-written, too. (But I still plan to keep soft-proofing my prints.)
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Looks safer than going to the hospital.
A Covid-19 Lesson: Some Seriously Ill Patients Can Be Treated at Home
To ease pressure on hospitals, Northwell Health brought medical workers, oxygen tanks and intravenous equipment into patients’ homes. Now Florida is taking cues.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/18/health/coronavirus-home-care.html
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FWIW
description within the link
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-six-types-of-covid-19-identified-by-scientists-in-major-breakthrough-for-treatment-12030652
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FWIW
description within the link
https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-six-types-of-covid-19-identified-by-scientists-in-major-breakthrough-for-treatment-12030652
I don't put a lot of faith in an observational study based on just over 1000 self reported symptoms. There already are large and growing number of lab tests that are highly predictive of severe COVID-19. None of the six symptoms listed address this.
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Researchers look into cannabis as a potential COVID-19 treatment
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-cannabis-treatment-potential-cbd-covid-19/
It was only a matter of time. Does anyone know whether marijuana stores were deemed essential businesses like liquor stores.
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Researchers look into cannabis as a potential COVID-19 treatment
https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-cannabis-treatment-potential-cbd-covid-19/
It was only a matter of time. Does anyone know whether marijuana stores were deemed essential businesses like liquor stores.
All the marijuana stores have been open just like the liquor stores. For many, both are essential to get through a day.
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Interesting article that outlines that our immune response is more complex than the mere presence of anti-bodies. The role of T-cell response appear to be a large factor in achieving herd immunity, especially since COVID-19 anti-bodies seem to disappear relatively fast. There is still a lot to be learned about this novel SARS-CoV-2 virus.
Beyond antibodies, the immune response to coronavirus is complicated
T-cell-based immunity may offer longer protection, but initial results are confusing.
Ultimately, the only way for societies to return to some semblance of normal in the wake of the current pandemic is to reach a state called herd immunity. This is where a large-enough percentage of the population has acquired immunity to SARS-CoV-2—either through infection or a vaccine—that most people exposed to the virus are already immune to it. This will mean that the infection rate will slow and eventually fizzle out, protecting society as a whole.
Given that this is our ultimate goal, we need to understand how the immune system responds to this virus. Most of what we know is based on a combination of what we know about other coronaviruses that infect humans and the antibody response to SARS-CoV-2. But now, data is coming in on the response of T-cells, and it indicates that their response is more complex: longer-lasting, broadly based, and including an overlap with the response to prior coronavirus infections. What this means for the prospect of long-lasting protection remains unclear.
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Apparently the experts were wrong again. It's this kind of thing that makes ordinary people throw up their hands in frustration and feel they're being screwed, lied too, or advised by so-called experts who don't know what they're talking about. I'm Type A as my wife is and both of us had been worried. Now it seems we worried too much.
Covid-19 Risk Doesn’t Depend (Much) on Blood Type, New Studies Find
"New studies show that people with Type A blood are not at greater risk of getting sick, as previous studies had suggested."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/15/science/coronavirus-blood-type.html?surface=home-discovery-vi-prg&fellback=false&req_id=468833730&algo=identity&imp_id=317820369&action=click&module=Science%20%20Technology&pgtype=Homepage
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Apparently the experts were wrong again. It's this kind of thing that makes ordinary people throw up their hands in frustration and feel they're being screwed, lied too, or advised by so-called experts who don't know what they're talking about.
Maybe just accept that this is a complicated topic. Experts may be wrong but they don't lie. They give their best guess at the answer, which is not perfect but it's still better than yours or mine. I tihnk Fauci said much the same thing.
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Apparently the experts were wrong again. It's this kind of thing that makes ordinary people throw up their hands in frustration and feel they're being screwed, lied too, or advised by so-called experts who don't know what they're talking about. I'm Type A as my wife is and both of us had been worried. Now it seems we worried too much.
Covid-19 Risk Doesn’t Depend (Much) on Blood Type, New Studies Find
"New studies show that people with Type A blood are not at greater risk of getting sick, as previous studies had suggested."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/15/science/coronavirus-blood-type.html?surface=home-discovery-vi-prg&fellback=false&req_id=468833730&algo=identity&imp_id=317820369&action=click&module=Science%20%20Technology&pgtype=Homepage
Your pointless bleating about experts is insulting.
There was an early conjecture about blood type, one more thing to check, and as more data accumulated a better understanding emerged. What, exactly, is it that you don't understand about that? Nobody, NOBODY, ever said it was a definitive finding, no action was ever recommended based on it, it did NOT affect ANYONE, including you.
Your constant whining about experts is nonsensical bafflegab. If you don't trust experts, stay away from this thread and take your cues from Trump or that clown Governor in Florida, they seem to tell you what you want to hear.
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Apparently the experts were wrong again. It's this kind of thing that makes ordinary people throw up their hands in frustration and feel they're being screwed, lied too, or advised by so-called experts who don't know what they're talking about.
I don't think ordinary people do any of those things. I guess that makes you either abnormal or extraordinary, your pick.
By the way, how do you know the earlier articles are wrong? Maybe the earlier articles are right and this new article is wrong. How did you decide?
Frankly, I'm shocked you believe the new article anyway since it appears in the failing New York Times. Which reminds me, did they ever give back their "Noble" prizes. Something worth checking on.
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Your pointless bleating about experts is insulting.
There was an early conjecture about blood type, one more thing to check, and as more data accumulated a better understanding emerged. What, exactly, is it that you don't understand about that? Nobody, NOBODY, ever said it was a definitive finding, no action was ever recommended based on it, it did NOT affect ANYONE, including you.
Your constant whining about experts is nonsensical bafflegab. If you don't trust experts, stay away from this thread and take your cues from Trump or that clown Governor in Florida, they seem to tell you what you want to hear.
You're being insulting. I don't appreciate it. My wife and I, both elderly and both type A blood type, have been following this issue for weeks. We're not dummies. My wife's smarter than me with two Masters. Both of us have been using masks and staying away from others. Every article for weeks has been repeating the dangers to people with Type A blood. I recall figures of up to 40% worse effects and death than those with other types. So just to dismiss our concerns as nonsensical bafflegab now that they're reversing their concerns, is just insulting. Asking people to cull the wheat from the chaff is often difficult. You're the one making it a political issue, not me. There's too much guessing and too many assumptions.
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My wife's smarter than me with two Masters.
In epidemiology?
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You're being insulting. I don't appreciate it. My wife and I, both elderly and both type A blood type, have been following this issue for weeks. We're not dummies. My wife's smarter than me with two Masters. Both of us have been using masks and staying away from others. Every article for weeks has been repeating the dangers to people with Type A blood. I recall figures of up to 40% worse effects and death than those with other types. So just to dismiss our concerns as nonsensical bafflegab now that they're reversing their concerns, is just insulting. Asking people to cull the wheat from the chaff is often difficult. You're the one making it a political issue, not me. There's too much guessing and too many assumptions.
What are you talking about? There were no issues to be concerned about. The original speculation about blood type was just that, SPECULATION that needed further study. And that's what happened. End of story. Your assertion that this shows that experts cannot be trusted is absurd.
If there were articles that repeated the dangers to people with Blood Type A they did not appear in scientific journals. It was the usual media repetition about things that they don't know anything about. Stop reading what you're reading and calling it expert opinion when it is definitely NOT that.
NO ONE is asking you to separate the wheat from the chaff in matters medical. Your doctors and public health authorities do that for you. Listen to them. Why are you wasting your time reading crap in the media. How many more times are we going to have this conversation?
I repeat, if you're not going to believe experts then stop reading the stuff. How many more times are we going to have to listen to that?
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What are you talking about? There were no issues to be concerned about. The original speculation about blood type was just that, SPECULATION that needed further study. And that's what happened. End of story. Your assertion that this shows that experts cannot be trusted is absurd.
If there were articles that repeated the dangers to people with Blood Type A they did not appear in scientific journals. It was the usual media repetition about things that they don't know anything about. Stop reading what you're reading and calling it expert opinion when it is definitely NOT that.
NO ONE is asking you to separate the wheat from the chaff in matters medical. Your doctors and public health authorities do that for you. Listen to them. Why are you wasting your time reading crap in the media. How many more times are we going to have this conversation?
I repeat, if you're not going to believe experts then stop reading the stuff. How many more times are we going to have to listen to that?
Here is an earlier June 17, 2020 article by Texas Medical Center referring to a study by the New England Journal of Medicine. The research concluded that A type blood is more dangerous regarding Covid. That's pretty expert to me.
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Here's the conclusion: "“Our genetic data confirm that blood group O is associated with a risk of acquiring Covid-19 that was lower than that in non-O blood groups, whereas blood group A was associated with a higher risk than non-A blood groups,” researchers concluded."
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You're being insulting. I don't appreciate it. My wife and I, both elderly and both type A blood type, have been following this issue for weeks. We're not dummies. My wife's smarter than me with two Masters. Both of us have been using masks and staying away from others. Every article for weeks has been repeating the dangers to people with Type A blood. I recall figures of up to 40% worse effects and death than those with other types. So just to dismiss our concerns as nonsensical bafflegab now that they're reversing their concerns, is just insulting. Asking people to cull the wheat from the chaff is often difficult. You're the one making it a political issue, not me. There's too much guessing and too many assumptions.
Would you rather have nothing said until it is known 100%. What if there was an issue with Type A blood, but they weren't 100% sure ( like most things in this world, nothing is 100% )...would it be better they held onto their findings will people died? You can't have your cake and eat it too.
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Here's the conclusion: "“Our genetic data confirm that blood group O is associated with a risk of acquiring Covid-19 that was lower than that in non-O blood groups, whereas blood group A was associated with a higher risk than non-A blood groups,” researchers concluded."
Looking at your quote, I noted several words and highlighted them.
I couldn't find a Texas Medical Center (TMC) article dated June 17, 2020 and you didn't leave a link. There is a June 30 TMC article on the subject which refers the the New England Journal of Medicine study. It said this:
Yet inherent limitations of the NEJM study mean it’s too soon to definitively link blood type to COVID-19 outcomes.
And of course, there is this:
"In addition to finding a potential link between blood type and COVID-19 severity, authors of the NEJM paper detected a cluster of six genes with potential relation to COVID-19 severity, as well. The authors reiterated that further study was necessary for both connections, writing that the “pragmatic aspects leading to the feasibility of this massive undertaking in a very short period of time during the extreme clinical circumstances of the pandemic imposed limitations that will be important to explore in follow-up studies.”
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You forgot to read this part:
Yet inherent limitations ohf the NEJM study mean it’s too soon to definitively link blood type to COVID-19 outcomes.
And of course, there is this:
"In addition to finding a potential link between blood type and COVID-19 severity, authors of the NEJM paper detected a cluster of six genes with potential relation to COVID-19 severity, as well. The authors reiterated that further study was necessary for both connections, writing that the “pragmatic aspects leading to the feasibility of this massive undertaking in a very short period of time during the extreme clinical circumstances of the pandemic imposed limitations that will be important to explore in follow-up studies.”
People don't read the studies. They read the headlines and newscasts. They also say more studies have to be done with masks to determine the actual efficacy of the different types of masks. So what are we to make of that statement? How is the public to know if everything is qualified? That's my point.
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People don't read the studies. They read the headlines and newscasts. They also say more studies have to be done with masks to determine the actual efficacy of the different types of masks. So what are we to make of that statement? How is the public to know if everything is qualified? That's my point.
Look, if you don't read the articles, you have no one to blame but yourself for needlessly whipping yourself into a frenzy.
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Look, if you don't read the articles, you have no one to blame but yourself for needlessly whipping yourself into a frenzy.
But the article's main point is that A type blood is more dangerous. In the beginning of the pandemic, are you denying that the CDC said masks weren't necessary for the average person? Look, I use common sense and have protected myself pretty well with masks, antiseptics, and staying isolated. Using public information is dangerous to your health. But many people rely on it and get more confused with the changing standards. One could argue that the country is "needlessly whipping itself into a frenzy" shutting everything down based in iffy research. It's a real problem to get the public to go along when the evidence is so disjointed. I'll let it go at that as I may be getting political.
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But the article's main point is that A type blood is more dangerous. In the beginning of the pandemic, are you denying that the CDC said masks weren't necessary for the average person? Look, I use common sense and have protected myself pretty well with masks, antiseptics, and staying isolated.
In which case masks were indeed not necessary. The CDC was correct.
With people ignoring the social distancing advice, masks can help, when used correctly.
Using public information is dangerous to your health.
Not if it comes from trusted sources. Not all public sources can be trusted.
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In which case masks were indeed not necessary. The CDC was correct.
With people ignoring the social distancing advice, masks can help, when used correctly.
Not if it comes from trusted sources. Not all public sources can be trusted.
Stop spinning. The CDC was wrong and deceptive. The CDC said masks were not needed in the public when the pandemic started. They wanted average people to not hoard masks so they would be more available to the medical community to purchase.
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People don't read the studies. They read the headlines and newscasts. They also say more studies have to be done with masks to determine the actual efficacy of the different types of masks. So what are we to make of that statement? How is the public to know if everything is qualified? That's my point.
We've had this conversation before.
Did the surgeon general make reference to blood types?
Did Fauci?
Did the CDC?
Did your doctor?
Why would you expect to get any useful information from a headline about a technical article that neither you nor the reporter are qualified to understand? There are all kinds of articles being written on subjects at the forefront of knowledge that don't turn out to be 100% correct in time. That's how it works. That's why best medical practices do not change every day that some new but unproven finding is mentioned.
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People don't read the studies. They read the headlines and newscasts. They also say more studies have to be done with masks to determine the actual efficacy of the different types of masks. So what are we to make of that statement? How is the public to know if everything is qualified? That's my point.
I thought your point was that "experts are lying". Now it turns out that your point is that information is lost when expert publications are summarised for the layman. Any more U turns and you'll need a neck brace.
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We've had this conversation before.
Did the surgeon general make reference to blood types?
Did Fauci?
Did the CDC?
Did your doctor?
Why would you expect to get any useful information from a headline about a technical article that neither you nor the reporter are qualified to understand? There are all kinds of articles being written on subjects at the forefront of knowledge that don't turn out to be 100% correct in time. That's how it works. That's why best medical practices do not change every day that some new but unproven finding is mentioned.
You want me to believe the surgeon general who works directly for Trump who can fire him with a tweet? Are you serious? You're whole argument is specious. To claim that the public should ignore all newscasts as to what the public should do to protect themselves when those newscasts are repeating what is claimed to come from the experts. WHich of those experts communicate directly with you or me or the general public. It all gets filtered through the media. Give me a break.
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I thought your point was that "experts are lying". Now it turns out that your point is that information is lost when expert publications are summarised for the layman. Any more U turns and you'll need a neck brace.
I never said all that. I said some experts lie, some experts are just plain wrong. Many experts just repeat what other experts say and don't have first hand knowledge. All media presents the news as they see it. Some spin more than others. Like experts, some media just repeats what other media claims, in fact they just copy the same words in their own articles using the bylines of the original writers. The poor public reads this or that and believes accordingly.
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I never said all that. I said some experts lie
For example?
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I never said all that. I said some experts lie, some experts are just plain wrong. Many experts just repeat what other experts say and don't have first hand knowledge. All media presents the news as they see it. Some spin more than others. Like experts, some media just repeats what other media claims, in fact they just copy the same words in their own articles using the bylines of the original writers. The poor public reads this or that and believes accordingly.
The problem is that some think that they are experts.
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The problem is that some think that they are experts.
Well, everyone here certainly thinks so. :)
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Stop spinning. The CDC was wrong and deceptive. The CDC said masks were not needed in the public when the pandemic started. They wanted average people to not hoard masks so they would be more available to the medical community to purchase.
And now they say to wear them...so what's your beef. Just wear the damn masks. At one time cigarettes were not dangerous, seatbelts were not mandatory and planes had smoking sections. We've learned since then and moved on...not stuck in the mud and bitching endlessly about experts screwing you over.
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And now they say to wear them...so what's your beef. Just wear the damn masks. At one time cigarettes were not dangerous, seatbelts were not mandatory and planes had smoking sections. We've learned since then and moved on...not stuck in the mud and bitching endlessly about experts screwing you over.
However, the CDC knew masks helped but lied about it. So they lost credibility. WHy should the public think they're telling the truth now? A lot of people don't trust the government because of us getting lied to by bureaucrats. They have good reason to feel that way.
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However, the CDC knew masks helped but lied about it. So they lost credibility. WHy should the public think they're telling the truth now? A lot of people don't trust the government because of us getting lied to by bureaucrats. They have good reason to feel that way.
Well the CDC had good reason to tell everyone not to wear masks as they were in extreme short supply and were required by the health professionals that were directly dealing with the virus. Surely educated people can understand this. Now we have plenty of these masks and since no one seems to be distancing themselves anymore, masks are a key component to alleviate in spreading this virus. Educated people again must understand this. Surely you Alan must understand this.
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However, the CDC knew masks helped but lied about it. So they lost credibility. WHy should the public think they're telling the truth now? A lot of people don't trust the government because of us getting lied to by bureaucrats. They have good reason to feel that way.
Maybe the CDC's earlier remarks were aspirational, intended to provide hope to a troubled nation in a time of crisis. Oh, wait...I am getting mixed up.
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Stop spinning. The CDC was wrong and deceptive. The CDC said masks were not needed in the public when the pandemic started. They wanted average people to not hoard masks so they would be more available to the medical community to purchase.
I don't know what you mean by deceptive. The way I remember it, they were pretty up front about having enough PPEs for medical staff, they never deceived anybody. They said exactly that.
Now that things are opening up a bit so that people come into closer contact than before and there are more masks available, they've changed their stance. This is more or less what's happening everywhere else, with slightly different timings.
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I don't know what you mean by deceptive. The way I remember it, they were pretty up front about having enough PPEs for medical staff, they never deceived anybody. They said exactly that.
Now that things are opening up a bit so that people come into closer contact than before and there are more masks available, they've changed their stance. This is more or less what's happening everywhere else, with slightly different timings.
No. In the beginning they said that people on the street don't need them. They deliberately lied to us. If they didn't then they are incompetent, which is worse. These people have been studying viral infection for decades. They never figured out that masks are good for you? What kind of moron scientists are working for them?
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No. In the beginning they said that people on the street don't need them. They deliberately lied to us. If they didn't then they are incompetent, which is worse. These people have been studying viral infection for decades. They never figured out that masks are good for you? What kind of moron scientists are working for them?
Clue: not all viruses are the same and not all viruses are transmitted in the same way. For example, wearing a mask is not a good way to avoid HIV.
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No. In the beginning they said that people on the street don't need them. They deliberately lied to us. If they didn't then they are incompetent, which is worse. These people have been studying viral infection for decades. They never figured out that masks are good for you? What kind of moron scientists are working for them?
Well, that's not at all how I remember it but I could be wrong. And anyway, in general masks are not THAT effective on the street, are they? Here in Canada, they're promoting them for indoor use or where people are close together.
As for "deliberately lying", you're exaggerating. They were upfront about the mask shortages right from the get go. The rest of your statement is troll-bait.
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For example, wearing a mask is not a good way to avoid HIV.
It depends on what you wear it on. You just want to make sure it is a snug fit.
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No. In the beginning they said that people on the street don't need them. They deliberately lied to us. If they didn't then they are incompetent, which is worse. These people have been studying viral infection for decades. They never figured out that masks are good for you? What kind of moron scientists are working for them?
Alan, you have the same view of doctors that lied to you and investors that just rob you. Man I'd hate going through life being so perinoid. Seems like everyone out there is there just to screw you over.
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Good news for Alan. CNN reports that Trump is going to be doing the revived daily coronavirus briefings solo. They'll be no one there from the CDC, HHS, NIH, or any of the other health agencies so there will be no opportunity for anyone to lie to you.
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Good news for Alan. CNN reports that Trump is going to be doing the revived daily coronavirus briefings solo. They'll be no one there from the CDC, HHS, NIH, or any of the other health agencies so there will be no opportunity for anyone to lie to you.
LOL :-)
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It depends on what you wear it on. You just want to make sure it is a snug fit.
Well you can put a condom over your head.
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With the Brazilian President Bolsonaro's Covid-19 re-infection we have now a strong evidence that recovered individuals have limited or no immune protection from re-infection. This case demonstrates also that the hydroxychloroquine, endorsed by Bolsonaro is ineffective in getting rid of the disease. Even more worrisome are the long term effects, such as lung scarring, irregular heartbeat, liver function and encephalopathy (brain damage) from the repeated illness.
Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has had another positive result for the novel coronavirus in the third test he has taken since falling ill on July 7, a secretariat of the Communications Ministry said on Wednesday.
Estimates of exact prevalence vary, but it seems that roughly 50% of patients diagnosed with Sars-CoV-2 – the virus responsible for causing the illness Covid-19 – have experienced neurological problems.
The extent and severity of these neurological issues has flown largely under the radar. Most people, including physicians, may not recognise neurological abnormalities for what they are when they appear – someone experiencing a seizure may simply look dazed, without any trembling or shaking. With its beeping machinery, sedative drugs and bed-bound isolation, an ICU environment can exacerbate and induce delirium, confounding our ability to link any symptom to the virus.
Further complicating matters, many people suffering from the effects of Sars-CoV-2 are never actually tested for the virus, especially if they do not exhibit a cough or fever. It means that if they have neurological symptoms, we may never know if this was linked to Sars-CoV-2.
Now, more than 300 studies from around the world have found a prevalence of neurological abnormalities in Covid-19 patients, including mild symptoms like headaches, loss of smell (anosmia) and tingling sensations (arcoparasthesia), up to more severe outcomes such as aphasia (inability to speak), strokes and seizures. This is in addition to recent findings that the virus, which has been largely considered to be a respiratory disease, can also wreak havoc on the kidneys, liver, heart, and just about every organ system in the body.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200622-the-long-term-effects-of-covid-19-infection
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With the Brazilian President Bolsonaro's Covid-19 re-infection we have now a strong evidence that recovered individuals have limited or no immune protection from re-infection. This case demonstrates also that the hydroxychloroquine, endorsed by Bolsonaro is ineffective in getting rid of the disease. Even more worrisome are the long term effects, such as lung scarring, irregular heartbeat, liver function and encephalopathy (brain damage) from the repeated illness.
https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200622-the-long-term-effects-of-covid-19-infection
Then why are we placing so much confidence in a vaccine?
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Then why are we placing so much confidence in a vaccine?
Don't fall for it. The experts are just lying to you.
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Don't fall for it. The experts are just lying to you.
You didn't address my question. If the virus comes back even after being infected once, as apparently happened to Bolsonaro, what value would a vaccine have? Of course, you can just trust the experts, make a joke at my expense, and ignore this question at your peril.
Second, let's leave aside the re-infection issue. Even scientists are saying they would consider a vaccine a success if it was 50% effective. I think most people think it would be more generally protective than that. If it is only 50%, so how will that change public policy? After all, would you put your family in danger just knowing that 50% of them are protected? Which 50%? Would you go traveling in a crowded airplane knowing you have a 50/50 shot of getting sick? Will governments shut down places anyway based on 50% efficacy? Are the stock markets and economies of the world putting too much hope in a vaccine?
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Then why are we placing so much confidence in a vaccine?
Gullibility and desperation?
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Gullibility and desperation?
... and greed.
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Then why are we placing so much confidence in a vaccine?
Because they have worked very well.
Immunity is what the body tries to do on its own anyway. So science has found ways to "trick" the body's immune system into protecting itself. Sounds like the very best of scientific thinking to me, much better than hoping that some magical drug will fix things after you get sick. We have all kinds of vaccines that work very well.
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... and greed.
Change the record, please.
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You didn't address my question. If the virus comes back even after being infected once, as apparently happened to Bolsonaro, what value would a vaccine have? Of course, you can just trust the experts, make a joke at my expense, and ignore this question at your peril.
Well, since I am not a scientist, I'm not sure I can add any clarity to the issue. Alan Goldhammer offered his thoughts on this issue in post 1783. You agreed with his analysis in post 1784. Have you changed your mind?
Second, let's leave aside the re-infection issue. Even scientists are saying they would consider a vaccine a success if it was 50% effective. I think most people think it would be more generally protective than that. If it is only 50%, so how will that change public policy? After all, would you put your family in danger just knowing that 50% of them are protected? Which 50%? Would you go traveling in a crowded airplane knowing you have a 50/50 shot of getting sick? Will governments shut down places anyway based on 50% efficacy? Is the stock markets and economies of the world putting too much hope in a vaccine?
I dunno. Do all scientists agree with the 50% effective assessment? My initial reactions is 50% is better than nothing. I mean we don't have a vaccine yet, much less one that is 50% effective, and people are going about their business. Trump wants all the schools to open up full time without a vaccine, so obviously he is not too concerned about it. But some people are more risk adverse than others, and will wait inside with their masks on and hand sanitizer at the ready until scientists develop a vaccine that is 100% effective. Of course you still have to decide whether you believe them when they say it really is 100% effective. They may just be exaggerating.
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Second, let's leave aside the re-infection issue. Even scientists are saying they would consider a vaccine a success if it was 50% effective. I think most people think it would be more generally protective than that. If it is only 50%, so how will that change public policy? After all, would you put your family in danger just knowing that 50% of them are protected? Which 50%? Would you go traveling in a crowded airplane knowing you have a 50/50 shot of getting sick? Will governments shut down places anyway based on 50% efficacy? Are the stock markets and economies of the world putting too much hope in a vaccine?
This is old ground. A vaccine acts in many ways like social distancing. The more people that do not get the virus, either because it wasn't transmitted to them or their body's immune system kills it, means that there are that many fewer people around to transmit it to others. This was discussed in a thousand ways back in Feb/March. None of that has changed. The fewer people have it, the less chance there is that others will catch it. That's how you control contagious disease. Why do we have to keep re-visiting this.
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Well, since I am not a scientist, I'm not sure I can add any clarity to the issue. Alan Goldhammer offered his thoughts on this issue in post 1783. You agreed with his analysis in post 1784. Have you changed your mind?
I dunno. Do all scientists agree with the 50% effective assessment? My initial reactions is 50% is better than nothing. I mean we don't have a vaccine yet, much less one that is 50$ effective and people are going about their business. But some people are more risk adverse than others, and will wait inside with their masks on and hand sanitizer at the ready until scientists develop a vaccine that is 100% effect. Of course you still have to decide whether you are going to believe them that it really is 100% effective. The may just be exaggerating.
What Goldhammer and I posted way back has nothing to do with the current issue. Les posted a comment today that said that Bolsonaro got it twice. That's the first time I heard that re-infection happened. If a person can get infected a second time, it raises the question just how efficacious a vaccine can be.
I think the general public thinks it's going to be a cure-all. Stock market and economies are acting daily on news about the vaccine like it's going to end the virus. We may be getting ahead of ourselves. Research I've done with the seasonal flu indicates an effectiveness of only 40% some years. If we repeat that with Covid 19, it doesn't add much faith that I'll be protected running around close to people. I still would want to protect myself. At 40%, the airlines, theatres, ball parks, and cruise ships will still stay empty. I'd still be careful what stock to buy.
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With the Brazilian President Bolsonaro's Covid-19 re-infection we have now a strong evidence that recovered individuals have limited or no immune protection from re-infection.
Bolsonaro has tested positive twice, about a week apart. It sounds like the two tests are showing positive for the same infection from which he has not yet recovered, rather than him having been infected and recovered and being reinfected. But what do I know?
"Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has again tested positive for coronavirus, he told reporters on Wednesday in Brasilia, suggesting he has yet to recover from an infection first diagnosed last week.
Since catching the virus, the president has said he remains in good health and he would resume his normal work schedule if he tested negative this week. On Wednesday he said he would get tested again in a few days."
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/07/15/brazils-president-tests-positive-for-covid-19-again/
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Bolsonaro has tested positive twice, about a week apart. It sounds like the two tests are showing positive for the same infection from which he has not yet recovered, rather than him having been infected and recovered and being reinfected. But what do I know?
"Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has again tested positive for coronavirus, he told reporters on Wednesday in Brasilia, suggesting he has yet to recover from an infection first diagnosed last week.
Since catching the virus, the president has said he remains in good health and he would resume his normal work schedule if he tested negative this week. On Wednesday he said he would get tested again in a few days."
https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/07/15/brazils-president-tests-positive-for-covid-19-again/
Well, that's nice to know. We may have more hope for the vaccine then. I'm still concerned for is partial efficacy. We'll have to wait to see what happens.
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Well, that's nice to know. We may have more hope for the vaccine then. I'm still concerned for is partial efficacy. We'll have to wait to see what happens.
The yearly flu vaccine is not 100% affective so I'm not expected the Covid vaccine to be 100%.
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The yearly flu vaccine is not 100% affective so I'm not expected the Covid vaccine to be 100%.
The yearly flu vaccine is not 100% affective so I'm not expected the Covid vaccine to be 100%.
Will you volunteer to be first in line to take it or will you wait to see how others make out? How will your plans for living change or remain the same if the effectiveness is 50%?
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Will you volunteer to be first in line to take it or will you wait to see how others make out? How will your plans for living change or remain the same if the effectiveness is 50%?
I'll travel to parts of the world that take the virus seriously and have it under control. I'd have zero issue traveling to SEA. I would not put foot into mainland USA until there is some control in place. I'd travel to Hawaii as they are very serious controlling the virus.
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I was asked to comment about the reinfection of the Brazilian president. It is important to remember that the genetic test for SARS-CoV-2 does NOT test for clinical COVID-19. It can only tell you that there is SARS-CoV-2 RNA in the sample taken from the person. There are a number of papers showing that in some patients recoverable genetic material can show up for days after the clinical symptoms have disappeared. I don't know how many of these samples have been tested using viral culture systems in the lab. I seem to remember a couple of papers that tried this and they could not culture virus. Secondly, I don't know what diagnostic tests were used in Brazil. Some are better than others with respect to false positives and negatives. I certainly have not seen anything in the literature that points to reinfection and it would be doubtful so soon after an initial infection and recovery (if in fact he did recovery fully).
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Many will have noticed that my country, South Africa, has made it into the top five countries with the most cases in the world.
We started off pretty well with an early lockdown which bought us time to prepare for what they warned was coming...
An encouraging statistic was our lowish death rate (5940 deaths) @ 100/million as of this morning.
However, I have just read a newly released study that shows the alarming fact that there have been ~17 000 "excess" deaths from the yearly average...!
I am aware that different countries have differing methods for tracking Covid-19 deaths, but, perhaps other countries with high numbers of cases and low deaths do not show the full picture either?
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Many will have noticed that my country, South Africa, has made it into the top five countries with the most cases in the world.
We started off pretty well with an early lockdown which bought us time to prepare for what they warned was coming...
An encouraging statistic was our lowish death rate (5940 deaths) @ 100/million as of this morning.
However, I have just read a newly released study that shows the alarming fact that there have been ~17 000 "excess" deaths from the yearly average...!
I am aware that different countries have differing methods for tracking Covid-19 deaths, but, perhaps other countries with high numbers of cases and low deaths do not show the full picture either?
Sorry to hear that cases are increasing there. I've said for a long time, that the disease just has to take it's course through the population. NY and NJ where I live went through very bad times. But now we're doing better. California who did well early, has now gotten hit very hard. Some of this is luck. Also what happens is as soon as you come out of hiding, the virus picks up again.
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Another thing I have to worry about.
a new government study shows that nearly 40% of people who have died with COVID-19 had diabetes.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-diabetes-insight/why-covid-19-is-killing-us-diabetes-patients-at-alarming-rates-idUSKCN24P1B4
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Another thing I have to worry about.
a new government study shows that nearly 40% of people who have died with COVID-19 had diabetes.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-diabetes-insight/why-covid-19-is-killing-us-diabetes-patients-at-alarming-rates-idUSKCN24P1B4
Most likely because so many people have diabetes (34 millions in US). Any serious illness (heart disease, cancer, asthma) will make C19 more dangerous.
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Most likely because so many people have diabetes (34 millions in US). Any serious illness (heart disease, cancer, asthma) will make C19 more dangerous.
I just went to the dentist for a cleaning. I really didn't want to go. What good are nice teeth if you're dead? :'(
Anyway, I had to sit in the car until they were ready. Then I had to wear my mask and check in. They checked my temperature and asked me a bunch of questions about how I felt, where I've been, who I was in contact with, if I've been traveling, etc. Then I had to sign a hold-harmless waiver below to protect the dentist from being sued by me if I got Covid 19. It didn't build a lot of confidence especially the part about water spray.
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I just went to the dentist for a cleaning. I really didn't want to go. What good are nice teeth if you're dead? :'(
Anyway, I had to sit in the car until they were ready. Then I had to wear my mask and check in. They checked my temperature and asked me a bunch of questions about how I felt, where I've been, who I was in contact with, if I've been traveling, etc. Then I had to sign a hold-harmless waiver below to protect the dentist from being sued by me if I got Covid 19. It didn't build a lot of confidence especially the part about water spray.
All dentists are doing that as those are the guidelines from the American Dental Association. I was also given goggles to wear. They minimized water spray by asking you to close your mouth when squirting water in. the also had air filtration machines in each room fitted with HEPA + charcoal filters.
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All dentists are doing that as those are the guidelines from the American Dental Association. I was also given goggles to wear. They minimized water spray by asking you to close your mouth when squirting water in. the also had air filtration machines in each room fitted with HEPA + charcoal filters.
I didn't notice the air filters here, I forgot to look. But they were in my other dentist's office I went to last week. They both gave me an antiseptic rinse to wash my mouth out before starting. It wasn't Lysol. But the bottle was labelled Prof. Trump's Best.
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All dentists are doing that as those are the guidelines from the American Dental Association. I was also given goggles to wear. They minimized water spray by asking you to close your mouth when squirting water in. the also had air filtration machines in each room fitted with HEPA + charcoal filters.
Same here in Ontario. I visited my dentist's office 3 times this month and didn't contract any virus. The main damage was to my bank account.
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On the 23 of may the US had 100.000 covid-19 deaths; in two days they will reach 150.000.
A little more than 2 months later...
The statistics do not look promising ( and don't lie )
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On the 23 of may the US had 100.000 covid-19 deaths; in two days they will reach 150.000.
A little more than 2 months later...
The statistics do not look promising ( and don't lie )
The numbers in US keep climbing. On July 24 - 77,253 infections, 1,104 deaths.
And the real numbers are even higher.
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The masks are now compulsory almost everywhere. They prevent droplets from flying eveywhere.
(https://s4.reutersmedia.net/resources/r/?m=02&d=20200725&t=2&i=1527061979&w=780&fh=&fw=&ll=&pl=&sq=&r=2020-07-25T003905Z_35827_MRPRC2OZH990Z4I_RTRMADP_0_HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS-BRITAIN-FACECOVERINGS)
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Most likely because so many people have diabetes (34 millions in US). Any serious illness (heart disease, cancer, asthma) will make C19 more dangerous.
Dutch geneticists made an interesting observation, and were able to isolate a defect in the genetic code of a specific gen (the TLR7-gen) that lowers the efficiency of our immune system. This appears to mainly affect males/boys, because they only have one X-chromosome. If the defect is there then there is no backup, like with women who have two X-chromosomes. There appear to be something like 1 in 10,000-20,000 males affected, so the issue becomes more significant during an epidemic.
Also, in the Netherlands, after opening up parts of the economy from the lockdown, there are pockets with a rapid growth of the number of infected people, mostly amongst young people (who take social distancing less seriously). The Reproduction rate has risen to 1.29, coming from approx. 0.8, so locally the growth is exponential instead of gradually declining. Partial lockdown restrictions will likely be reactivated.
And this is during the summer season. Autumn and winter season will probably trigger larger outbursts.
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Dutch geneticists made an interesting observation, and were able to isolate a defect in the genetic code of a specific gen (the TLR7-gen) that lowers the efficiency of our immune system. This appears to mainly affect males/boys, because they only have one X-chromosome. If the defect is there then there is no backup, like with women who have two X-chromosomes. There appear to be something like 1 in 10,000-20,000 males affected, so the issue becomes more significant during an epidemic.
Also, in the Netherlands, after opening up parts of the economy from the lockdown, there are pockets with a rapid growth of the number of infected people, mostly amongst young people (who take social distancing less seriously). The Reproduction rate has risen to 1.29, coming from approx. 0.8, so locally the growth is exponential instead of gradually declining. Partial lockdown restrictions will likely be reactivated.
And this is during the summer season. Autumn and winter season will probably trigger larger outbursts.
Well, staying home all the time with nothing else to do might account for that.
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Dutch geneticists made an interesting observation, and were able to isolate a defect in the genetic code of a specific gen (the TLR7-gen) that lowers the efficiency of our immune system. This appears to mainly affect males/boys, because they only have one X-chromosome. If the defect is there then there is no backup, like with women who have two X-chromosomes. There appear to be something like 1 in 10,000-20,000 males affected, so the issue becomes more significant during an epidemic.
I read that paper this morning and it is a great piece of research. Four boys from two different families. There have been other genetic findings as well as we are in the golden age of genetic research given all the new tools scientists have. There was also a paper today that looked at the major mutation that evolved in Europe. It appears to be more infective but at the same time more sensitive to antibody inactivation. Lots of interesting things about this virus.
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Well, staying home all the time with nothing else to do might account for that.
I don’t think he was taking about that kind of reproduction, Alan😎
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[...]Lots of interesting things about this virus.
Yes, besides the aspect of human suffering. Technically there is a lot more possible nowadays, but there is also a lot of new things that can be learned from this novel type of Corona-virus that might prepare us better for future versions next time around (as long as we do prepare for that likelihood). SARS-CoV-2 also seems to behave differently in several ways compared to earlier versions of the same general family, so that's something to prepare for as well.
One (of several) hard lesson(s) (despite the warnings) was/is the lack of testing ability and the lack of locally available protective gear (face masks, skirts, and the like) for (enough numbers of trained) personnel and equipment for e.g. ICUs.
Since humanity is invading large parts of animal habitats, and global warming is shifting boundaries of climatic zones, we will inevitably see the occurrence of more zoonotic diseases.
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I don’t think he was taking about that kind of reproduction, Alan😎
They say you start fantasizing when you've been isolating too much. :)
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Yes, besides the aspect of human suffering. Technically there is a lot more possible nowadays, but there is also a lot of new things that can be learned from this novel type of Corona-virus that might prepare us better for future versions next time around (as long as we do prepare for that likelihood). SARS-CoV-2 also seems to behave differently in several ways compared to earlier versions of the same general family, so that's something to prepare for as well.
One (of several) hard lesson(s) (despite the warnings) was/is the lack of testing ability and the lack of locally available protective gear (face masks, skirts, and the like) for (enough numbers of trained) personnel and equipment for e.g. ICUs.
Since humanity is invading large parts of animal habitats, and global warming is shifting boundaries of climatic zones, we will inevitably see the occurrence of more zoonotic diseases.
Hunting for and eating these wild animals adds to the risk.
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My town in central NJ just went four days without new cases, the best so far. Really good news.
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My town in central NJ just went four days without new cases, the best so far. Really good news.
Time to celebrate and go to Florida.
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Time to celebrate and go to Florida.
It's 93F here. Hot enough.
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Finally there is an explanation why the very young children with Covid19 don't transmit the disease to the adults at the same rate as the older children. Nothing to do with the biology, but with their height.
The reason for a less effective infection by small children is that they are shorter, and if they breath, sneeze or cough, the droplets from that height don't travel as far. Brilliant and sensible explanation!
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Finally there is an explanation why the very young children with Covid19 don't transmit the disease to the adults at the same rate as the older children. Nothing to do with the biology, but with their height.
The reason for a less effective infection by small children is that they are shorter, and if they breath, sneeze or cough, the droplets from that height don't travel as far. Brilliant and sensible explanation!
But you'd think with children not understanding the social distancing thing, not wearing masks...they'd spread Covid between themselves and we should see major outbreaks in children.
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Finally there is an explanation why the very young children with Covid19 don't transmit the disease to the adults at the same rate as the older children. Nothing to do with the biology, but with their height.
The reason for a less effective infection by small children is that they are shorter, and if they breath, sneeze or cough, the droplets from that height don't travel as far. Brilliant and sensible explanation!
I don't know about that. The parents I know bend down to hug and kiss their kids all the time.
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I don't know about that. The parents I know bend down to hug and kiss their kids all the time.
That happens. Maybe more often than bending down and spanking the kids.
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The reason for a less effective infection by small children is that they are shorter, and if they breath, sneeze or cough, the droplets from that height don't travel as far. Brilliant and sensible explanation!
I want to know more about that if they breathe part. :)
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I want to know more about that if they breathe part. :)
To clarify - risky situation occurs only if they breathe out.
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The US is going even worse 1485 death in one day ( 29july2020 )
many states have 1000 new cases a day.
The John Hopkins Uniiversity asks for a new national approach to the virus or it is only getting worse.
( also Brazil is getting worse and worse)
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The US is going even worse 1485 death in one day ( 29july2020 )
many states have 1000 new cases a day.
The John Hopkins Uniiversity asks for a new national approach to the virus or it is only getting worse.
( also Brazil is getting worse and worse)
It looks like it has to go through most of the population before it will stay down "permanently". Even with isolation, it appears that once you start moving around again, it starts to go back up. For example, New York and New Jersey went through their peaks awhile back. People isolated. Now we're starting to get back to normal living and the numbers are ticking back up. Shutting down again will only delay the inevitable. Once you open up again it will pick up then too. Unless it totally dies out in the interim. Pay now or pay later.
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It looks like it has to go through most of the population before it will stay down "permanently". Even with isolation, it appears that once you start moving around again, it starts to go back up. For example, New York and New Jersey went through their peaks awhile back. People isolated. Now we're starting to get back to normal living and the numbers are ticking back up. Shutting down again will only delay the inevitable. Once you open up again it will pick up then too. Unless it totally dies out in the interim. Pay now or pay later.
Or manage the openings better and restrict pubs and restaurants with the number of people and distancing. You can open up in a controlled fashion. Testing and contact tracing also allows you to manage outbreaks...rather than just "let the virus rip through the population" aporoach.
Go slow and controlled until a vaccine becomes available.
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It looks like it has to go through most of the population before it will stay down "permanently". Even with isolation, it appears that once you start moving around again, it starts to go back up. For example, New York and New Jersey went through their peaks awhile back. People isolated. Now we're starting to get back to normal living and the numbers are ticking back up. Shutting down again will only delay the inevitable. Once you open up again it will pick up then too. Unless it totally dies out in the interim. Pay now or pay later.
The virus does not "go through", "stay down", "go back up", "ticking back up", "pick up", or "die out".
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I read that paper this morning and it is a great piece of research. Four boys from two different families. There have been other genetic findings as well as we are in the golden age of genetic research given all the new tools scientists have. There was also a paper today that looked at the major mutation that evolved in Europe. It appears to be more infective but at the same time more sensitive to antibody inactivation. Lots of interesting things about this virus.
If it's mutating, couldn't we be in for a multi year problem like what happened with the Spanish Flu which lasted four years returning in different strains every year? The second year killed even more people then its first.
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Or manage the openings better and restrict pubs and restaurants with the number of people and distancing. You can open up in a controlled fashion. Testing and contact tracing also allows you to manage outbreaks...rather than just "let the virus rip through the population" aporoach.
Go slow and controlled until a vaccine becomes available.
It appears that only slows down the spread. It's like a leak in the plumbing. You shut off all the [valves=edit], everything is fine. Once you start opening them again, even slowly, the leak starts up again. We're controlling the effect not the cause.
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The virus does not "go through", "stay down", "go back up", "ticking back up", "pick up", or "die out".
I don't understand your point.
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It appears that only slows down the spread. It's like a leak in the plumbing. You shut off all the [valves=edit], everything is fine. Once you start opening them again, even slowly, the leak starts up again. We're controlling the effect not the cause.
Right, you control things openings and then test and track. Just opening the doors and putting the open light on without having other measures gives you what you are seeing today...out of control chaos.
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Right, you control things openings and then test and track. Just opening the doors and putting the open light on without having other measures gives you what you are seeing today...out of control chaos.
Many, not all, other countries are having the same problem. Once the people start moving around, the virus starts spreading again. The other measures only slow down the spread. It doesn't stop it.
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Many, not all, other countries are having the same problem. Once the people start moving around, the virus starts spreading again. The other measures only slow down the spread. It doesn't stop it.
Right, slow it down so you have control of it rather than the virus controlling you.
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Right, slow it down so you have control of it rather than the virus controlling you.
The problem is, once someone gets sick, they shut down again. It just happened with baseball here in the US.
"Coronavirus outbreak in Major League Baseball casts pall over other reopenings
If pro sports teams, with their robust testing and elaborate safety protocols, couldn’t evade the virus, some worry what lies ahead for schools and businesses."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/07/28/coronavirus-outbreaks-baseball-schools/
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The problem is, once someone gets sick, they shut down again. It just happened with baseball here in the US.
"Coronavirus outbreak in Major League Baseball casts pall over other reopenings
If pro sports teams, with their robust testing and elaborate safety protocols, couldn’t evade the virus, some worry what lies ahead for schools and businesses."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/07/28/coronavirus-outbreaks-baseball-schools/
Well there have been many reports of sports figures being seen at clubs partying it up...so no wonder we see outbreaks in sports clubs. Do we really need these night clubs open? It's all up to the people...if they are idiots, then there is no hope. If people protest about wearing masks in crowded public places, then there is no hope. Strong leadership and guidance is required to inform people...or there is no hope.
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Well there have been many reports of sports figures being seen at clubs partying it up...so no wonder we see outbreaks in sports clubs. Do we really need these night clubs open? It's all up to the people...if they are idiots, then there is no hope. If people protest about wearing masks in crowded public places, then there is no hope. Strong leadership and guidance is required to inform people...or there is no hope.
How are they going to prevent spread if they open schools and businesses?
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How are they going to prevent spread if they open schools and businesses?
They could mandate wearing of hazmat suits. Manufacturing the suits would also stimulate the economy.
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It looks like it has to go through most of the population before it will stay down "permanently". Even with isolation, it appears that once you start moving around again, it starts to go back up. For example, New York and New Jersey went through their peaks awhile back. People isolated. Now we're starting to get back to normal living and the numbers are ticking back up. Shutting down again will only delay the inevitable. Once you open up again it will pick up then too. Unless it totally dies out in the interim. Pay now or pay later.
So that will take more than 1 million lives of US citizen and the rest will be locked up in their country. In no country they are welcome without an incubation period of two weeks.
Hospitals will have 3rd world country scenes- the dead are already being put in cold trucks...
Look at that economically.
More specific: "most of the population" includes you.
If Europe ( excluding russia) can do it, so does the US.
In the Netherlands economy is rising again; not at full speed, but at say 2/3 ; only large gatherings, discotheques and large concerts are forbidden. Cinemas are 50% occupied.
primary schools are open - the others are still closed.
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Many, not all, other countries are having the same problem. Once the people start moving around, the virus starts spreading again. The other measures only slow down the spread. It doesn't stop it.
The objective is to keep the Rt factor <1, prevent rupture of health services, and keep economy going as best as possible. For example, 1 month ago the greater Lisbon area had around 400 new cases a day. With a bit of more control and more efficient and faster contact tracking, we are now down to 200, which is much better.
Until there is a proven vaccine or treatment, we are under management mode. Eventually the virus will go from pandemic to endemic, as many other bugs that are around.
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How are they going to prevent spread if they open schools and businesses?
1. Reduce number of students per classroom.
2. Use masks and sanitize hands frequently.
3. Keep distancing.
4. Inform and train people.
5. Monitor and police and intervene if necessary.
Of course there will be resurgence of cases here and there in various types of activities, but the key is to quickly identify positive cases and their contacts, tests them all,and quarantine them. Many countries have reopened now for 4 months and things are being managed. Of course there will always be people that still do not follow the rules.
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1. Reduce number of students per classroom.
2. Use masks and sanitize hands frequently.
3. Keep distancing.
4. Inform and train people.
5. Monitor and police and intervene if necessary.
Of course there will be resurgence of cases here and there in various types of activities, but the key is to quickly identify positive cases and their contacts, tests them all,and quarantine them. Many countries have reopened now for 4 months and things are being managed. Of course there will always be people that still do not follow the rules.
There was an outbreak at a summer resort town here in BC. Some partiers from Vancouver caused the outbreak which resulted in something like 70 infections. More than 1000 were quarantined for 2 weeks that had close contact with these individuals. Seems like the outbreak was squashed. That's how to control it...yes outbreaks will happen when you open up. It's how you handle that outbreak that will determine how well you come out in the end. This requires quick test results, contact tracing and isolation.
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There was an outbreak at a summer resort town here in BC. Some partiers from Vancouver caused the outbreak which resulted in something like 70 infections. More than 1000 were quarantined for 2 weeks that had close contact with these individuals. Seems like the outbreak was squashed. That's how to control it...yes outbreaks will happen when you open up. It's how you handle that outbreak that will determine how well you come out in the end. This requires quick test results, contact tracing and isolation.
Absolutely. Various countries have had several "normal" outbreaks in various places and economic activities, it is statistically expected. Similar to increasing the number of cars on the roads,the number of accidents will go up.
Then there have been several outbreaks caused by idiots partying on the street and getting drunk in large crowds. They should spend a few weeks helping out in the hospitals or social services just for good measure.
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In Spain there are outbreaks in the north east- Catalunya. As a response to that all the British tourists coming from Spain have to take 2 weeks quarantine when arriving home...
and because of that TUI-travel has canceled a lot of flights/vacations from the UK to Spain. Those tourists are vital for the Spanish economy.
I think that is a very bad UK respons. All EU countries are having a different reaction and measures that makes it impossible to travel.
You don't know if you can come back or if you have to be in quarantine for two weeks.
These measures should be orchestrated on EU-level.
(BTW the UK is still worst with corona deaths, also on a daily basis and behave kind of arrogant)
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The problem is, once someone gets sick, they shut down again.
Not really. There were 59,862 new cases and 1194 new deaths yesterday and nobody shut down, so the shutdown threshold must be higher than that.
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If Europe ( excluding russia) can do it, so does the US.
In the Netherlands economy is rising again; not at full speed, but at say 2/3 ; only large gatherings, discotheques and large concerts are forbidden. Cinemas are 50% occupied.
primary schools are open - the others are still closed.
As an Ajax supporter, I don't consider things back to normal until the Eredivisie starts play again!
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1. Reduce number of students per classroom.
2. Use masks and sanitize hands frequently.
3. Keep distancing.
4. Inform and train people.
5. Monitor and police and intervene if necessary.
Of course there will be resurgence of cases here and there in various types of activities, but the key is to quickly identify positive cases and their contacts, tests them all,and quarantine them. Many countries have reopened now for 4 months and things are being managed. Of course there will always be people that still do not follow the rules.
Correct. It really is pretty simple.
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So that will take more than 1 million lives of US citizen and the rest will be locked up in their country. In no country they are welcome without an incubation period of two weeks.
Hospitals will have 3rd world country scenes- the dead are already being put in cold trucks...
Look at that economically.
More specific: "most of the population" includes you.
If Europe ( excluding russia) can do it, so does the US.
In the Netherlands economy is rising again; not at full speed, but at say 2/3 ; only large gatherings, discotheques and large concerts are forbidden. Cinemas are 50% occupied.
primary schools are open - the others are still closed.
We're not rushing here in New Jersey. We're opening up very slowly and cautiously. But the numbers ticked up ever so slightly anyway. Personally, I'm remaining cautious and have not eaten out or gotten together with anyone but my wife, which is challenging enough. :)
Don't count your chickens before they hatch. You might get the same problem in Europe too. These arguments are starting to sound like the ones we have about Canon vs. Nikon cameras and o. Everyone think theirs is the best. Let's all check back a year from now and compare notes. You're being too premature. The virus has not gone away, even in Europe.
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1. Reduce number of students per classroom.
2. Use masks and sanitize hands frequently.
3. Keep distancing.
4. Inform and train people.
5. Monitor and police and intervene if necessary.
Of course there will be resurgence of cases here and there in various types of activities, but the key is to quickly identify positive cases and their contacts, tests them all,and quarantine them. Many countries have reopened now for 4 months and things are being managed. Of course there will always be people that still do not follow the rules.
Is that your plan or have you done it? While you're being optimistic, you really don't know what's going to happen until you start it. I wouldn't be bragging until schools and businesses have been running a few weeks. Then check back with us and give us a report.
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So that will take more than 1 million lives of US citizen and the rest will be locked up in their country. In no country they are welcome without an incubation period of two weeks.
Hospitals will have 3rd world country scenes- the dead are already being put in cold trucks...
Look at that economically.
More specific: "most of the population" includes you.
If Europe ( excluding russia) can do it, so does the US.
In the Netherlands economy is rising again; not at full speed, but at say 2/3 ; only large gatherings, discotheques and large concerts are forbidden. Cinemas are 50% occupied.
primary schools are open - the others are still closed.
How to you run an economy at 2/3rds? Today, it was reported the the US had a second quarter GDP down 33%, the worst in history. Of course, the US Federal Reserve just prints more money and is handing it out to people not making a salary. How long can the Dutch do that? We can't do it much longer ourselves as we'll be totally neutered which may be why some many people want us to keep our economy shut down. In any case, people have to live and eat. Me? As a senior, I could just continue being locked up until they get a vaccine.
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In Spain there are outbreaks in the north east- Catalunya. As a response to that all the British tourists coming from Spain have to take 2 weeks quarantine when arriving home...
and because of that TUI-travel has canceled a lot of flights/vacations from the UK to Spain. Those tourists are vital for the Spanish economy.
I think that is a very bad UK respons. All EU countries are having a different reaction and measures that makes it impossible to travel.
You don't know if you can come back or if you have to be in quarantine for two weeks.
These measures should be orchestrated on EU-level.
(BTW the UK is still worst with corona deaths, also on a daily basis and behave kind of arrogant)
New York, Connecticut, and New Jersey where I live, have issued a quarantine program for visitors from 39 of 47 other states similar to the EU nations. However, the 14 day quarantine is voluntary, but compliance is expected. (whatever that means).
https://covid19.nj.gov/faqs/nj-information/travel-information/which-states-are-on-the-travel-advisory-list-are-there-travel-restrictions-to-or-from-new-jersey
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We will not be able to solve the problem until people start doing what they are supposed to do. Here is an example: 700 idiots go to a party at an airbnb in New Jersey. This is an example of "American Exceptionalism". Exceptionally dumb.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/27/us/new-jersey-airbnb-house-party-covid-trnd/index.html
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Children May Carry Coronavirus at High Levels, Study Finds
The research does not prove that infected children are contagious, but it should influence the debate about reopening schools, some experts said.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/30/health/coronavirus-children.html
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We will not be able to solve the problem until people start doing what they are supposed to do. Here is an example: 700 idiots go to a party at an airbnb in New Jersey.
https://www.cnn.com/2020/07/27/us/new-jersey-airbnb-house-party-covid-trnd/index.html
Yeah, they're jerks. But how will it be better once you send kids to schools and bring back workers to businesses?
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Is that your plan or have you done it? While you're being optimistic, you really don't know what's going to happen until you start it. I wouldn't be bragging until schools and businesses have been running a few weeks. Then check back with us and give us a report.
At least there is a plan.
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How to you run an economy at 2/3rds? Today, it was reported the the US had a second quarter GDP down 33%, the worst in history. Of course, the US Federal Reserve just prints more money and is handing it out to people not making a salary. How long can the Dutch do that? We can't do it much longer ourselves as we'll be totally neutered which may be why some many people want us to keep our economy shut down. In any case, people have to live and eat. Me? As a senior, I could just continue being locked up until they get a vaccine.
Let me try to make this clear and I am also a senior. About 1/3 of the people in the US won't go to restaurants, movies, sporting events and so on. the economy is not going to come back to 100% until we get a) herd immunity, b) vaccine, or c) a good oral antiviral drug that anyone suspected of contacting COVID-19 can take. I see nothing that points to (c). (a) can be achieved but with further mortality and even then there will still be continued small outbreaks. (b) is achievable but the timeline is not known and we also do not know how potent the vaccine will be.
Nobody wants the economy shut down but there are some businesses that clearly will not make it and there will be continued unemployment at a high level. That's the blunt fact. Even getting the economy back to 90% is still a disaster for a lot of people whose jobs are gone forever.
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At least there is a plan.
We have a phased plan here in New Jersey. I think we're up to Phase IV. NY and CT and other states have plans too. This problem reminds me of what World Heavyweight fighter Mike Tyson said about plans. "All my opponents come to my fights with a plan. Their plans go away the first time I hit them in the face."
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We have a phased plan here in New Jersey. I think we're up to Phase IV. NY and CT and other states have plans too. This problem reminds me of what World Heavyweight fighter Mike Tyson said about plans. "All my opponents come to my fights with a plan. Their plans go away the first time I hit them in the face."
We were discussing getting kids back to school. I haven't seen any coherent plan for this...just fist pounding saying "it will happen".
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We were discussing getting kids back to school. I haven't seen any coherent plan for this...just fist pounding saying "it will happen".
Each state is developing their plans and will handle it differently. That's good. It will show which methods works best. If you do one plan on a national basis, and it's not the best plan, you won't know if there's a better way. One of the advantages of a Federal system like America's.
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Here's part of the problem with getting kids back to school. It's not just a political or medical decision.
Teachers Are Wary of Returning to Class, and Online Instruction Too
"Unions are threatening to strike if classrooms reopen, but are also pushing to limit live remote teaching. Their demands will shape pandemic education."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/29/us/teacher-union-school-reopening-coronavirus.html
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Here's part of the problem with getting kids back to school. It's not just a political or medical decision.
Teachers Are Wary of Returning to Class, and Online Instruction Too
"Unions are threatening to strike if classrooms reopen, but are also pushing to limit live remote teaching. Their demands will shape pandemic education."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/29/us/teacher-union-school-reopening-coronavirus.html
The school plan in BC involved the unions, health professionals as well as the government. Jointly came up with the plan.
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Each state is developing their plans and will handle it differently. That's good. It will show which methods works best. If you do one plan on a national basis, and it's not the best plan, you won't know if there's a better way. One of the advantages of a Federal system like America's.
Yes, but Trump is threatening to withhold any federal funds for schooling if the schools don't open up immediately. Is that really leaving it up to the states on how and when to open up?
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I have a daughter who is a primary school special education specialist. The students she works with really only respond to in class instruction. the big question is how to open schools safely. The National Academy of Sciences did a major paper on this that you can read HERE. (https://www.nationalacademies.org/news/2020/07/schools-should-prioritize-reopening-in-fall-2020-especially-for-grades-k-5-while-weighing-risks-and-benefits) The recommendations are reasonable but the associate implementation costs are great. Our synagogue runs a nursery school for children under 5 years of age. In order to provide a safe environment they had to raise the tuition from $12K to $17K which is a significant increase. The French International school is about 1/2 mile from our house. They went to the county for a permit hearing yesterday to bring nine portable class rooms plus a generator on site so they would have extra rooms to provide proper physical distancing. Even with this addition they have to go to one week on one week off for the students to assure safety.
I have also looked at this and class size needs to be dropped down to about 12 students per room which is a reduction of at least 50% in size. Now maybe this is only needed for 6-12 months depending on viral outbreaks and the availability of a vaccine. the bigger question is who is going to pay for all of this? I am not one who wants to see things shut down but the costs to do things safely are quite high.
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I have a daughter who is a primary school special education specialist. The students she works with really only respond to in class instruction. the big question is how to open schools safely. The National Academy of Sciences did a major paper on this that you can read HERE. (https://www.nationalacademies.org/news/2020/07/schools-should-prioritize-reopening-in-fall-2020-especially-for-grades-k-5-while-weighing-risks-and-benefits) The recommendations are reasonable but the associate implementation costs are great. Our synagogue runs a nursery school for children under 5 years of age. In order to provide a safe environment they had to raise the tuition from $12K to $17K which is a significant increase. The French International school is about 1/2 mile from our house. They went to the county for a permit hearing yesterday to bring nine portable class rooms plus a generator on site so they would have extra rooms to provide proper physical distancing. Even with this addition they have to go to one week on one week off for the students to assure safety.
I have also looked at this and class size needs to be dropped down to about 12 students per room which is a reduction of at least 50% in size. Now maybe this is only needed for 6-12 months depending on viral outbreaks and the availability of a vaccine. the bigger question is who is going to pay for all of this? I am not one who wants to see things shut down but the costs to do things safely are quite high.
The costs to do them unsafely is even higher.
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Regarding schools in Portugal there is discussion about implementing a mixed system. Some classes can be taught remotely, so that students stay at home at least a few days every week. Also, to avoid crowding public transports, there is talk of offsetting school schedules and work schedules.
My kids are in University, and from mid-March to mid-July they had remote classes and exams. Wasit ideal? No. But it can work.
Pre-primary schools (up tp 5 years old) have reopened in 1st June, so far I only heard about 1 or 2 outbreaks, promptly taken care of.
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Yes, but Trump is threatening to withhold any federal funds for schooling if the schools don't open up immediately. Is that really leaving it up to the states on how and when to open up?
Decisions on opening up will be made locally. Most education funding is local - state, county, town, not Federal. 55% of my property taxes pays for schools in my town. All additional costs have to be paid by homeowners or local governments who are already broke. To say we should do anything required misses the point that it costs a lot of money, money that people and government already don't have.
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Regarding schools in Portugal there is discussion about implementing a mixed system. Some classes can be taught remotely, so that students stay at home at least a few days every week. Also, to avoid crowding public transports, there is talk of offsetting school schedules and work schedules.
My kids are in University, and from mid-March to mid-July they had remote classes and exams. Wasit ideal? No. But it can work.
Pre-primary schools (up tp 5 years old) have reopened in 1st June, so far I only heard about 1 or 2 outbreaks, promptly taken care of.
A discussion here in America is whether it's right for colleges to be charging full tuition costs for on-line instruction? What are they doing in Portugal regarding that and how do you feel about it?
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I have deleted several overtly and purely political posts. The two posters have both been banned in the past for violating the rule against such activity in this thread, and their continued ability to post is hanging by a thread.
Jeremy
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Each state is developing their plans and will handle it differently. That's good. It will show which methods works best. If you do one plan on a national basis, and it's not the best plan, you won't know if there's a better way. One of the advantages of a Federal system like America's.
How do you teach a virus about federalism or get it to recognize and respect state borders? My understanding is that viruses have only learned to do two things well: replicate inside of a host and transfer from one host to another. They get failing grades in geography and constitutional law.
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How do you teach a virus about federalism or get it to recognize and respect state borders? My understanding is that viruses have only learned to do two things well: replicate inside of a host and transfer from one host to another. They get failing grades in geography and constitutional law.
non-sequitar
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This is unbelievable. As a nation, have we collectively lost our minds? This is the second summer camp disaster I have posted about. Just wait until school starts.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/children-staff-georgia-overnight-camp-test-positive-coronavirus-cdc-says-n1235503
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This is unbelievable. As a nation, have we collectively lost our minds? This is the second summer camp disaster I have posted about. Just wait until school starts.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/children-staff-georgia-overnight-camp-test-positive-coronavirus-cdc-says-n1235503
Seems like there are many candidates for the Darwin Award this year. Is this some kind of anniversary year for the awards...seems like many are getting in line for the award.
Stupid is as stupid does.
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Seems like there are many candidates for the Darwin Award this year. Is this some kind of anniversary year for the awards...seems like many are getting in line for the award.
Stupid is as stupid does.
I forgot to add. This occurred in Georgia, where the governor, who has not enacted a state-wide mask mandate, is suing the mayors of cities and towns, whose mayors have enacted mask mandates, to render them void. Masks, always the masks.
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For what it is worth, we have never had a mask policy in Australia.
The information from many sources including WHO was that masks protect other people and not the wearer and are about 30% as effective as social distancing.
So basic hygiene of hand washing, social distancing of 1.5m and isolating incomings for two weeks is what we did and it worked until a month ago.
Then we had all of these crazies attend rallies and parties and it had got out of control in one state of Victoria.
We doubled our deaths since then and a mask policy has been introduced in that state.
It doesn't help though because the crazies and those who simply do not obey rules are still out there and the Victorian government is too soft.
Until you get the crazies off the street you can't control it.
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For what it is worth, we have never had a mask policy in Australia.
The information from many sources including WHO was that masks protect other people and not the wearer and are about 30% as effective as social distancing.
So basic hygiene of hand washing, social distancing of 1.5m and isolating incomings for two weeks is what we did and it worked until a month ago.
Then we had all of these crazies attend rallies and parties and it had got out of control in one state of Victoria.
We doubled our deaths since then and a mask policy has been introduced in that state.
It doesn't help though because the crazies and those who simply do not obey rules are still out there and the Victorian government is too soft.
Until you get the crazies off the street you can't control it.
What happened to schools and businesses after the outbreak?
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What happened to schools and businesses after the outbreak?
The schools were closed at first and every kid had to learn from home.
Most schools went back for second term after Easter.
The general feeling was that kids were low risk and would be better for them at school rather than running around the street and also missing a year of school.
A few schools have had outbreaks and they just deep clean them (school not kids) and send them back.
You were only allowed to go out for shopping, exercise, work and medical treatment. No eating in so takeaway food only.
Most people worked from home if they could as there was very limited public transport as numbers were restricted on trains and buses.
Now pretty much anything is allowed as long as there is no more than 1 person per 4 sq metres. That may mean that a lot of businesses stay closed as they are not economical.
The government is paying a Job Keeper allowance which for some is more than they were earning.
That was until this latest outbreak where most states are banning people from hot spots and the whole state of Victoria.
However stocks are up, dollar is up, but we are slowly moving up the list of countries.
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This is unbelievable. As a nation, have we collectively lost our minds? This is the second summer camp disaster I have posted about. Just wait until school starts.
https://www.nbcnews.com/health/health-news/children-staff-georgia-overnight-camp-test-positive-coronavirus-cdc-says-n1235503
I saw a random web photo today, a city sign that had been spray-painted with "Covid is a lie". It's just one piece of graffiti, probably done by some loser, but could there be a significant critical mass of people who still don't think that Covid is a thing?
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The schools were closed at first and every kid had to learn from home.
Most schools went back for second term after Easter.
The general feeling was that kids were low risk and would be better for them at school rather than running around the street and also missing a year of school.
A few schools have had outbreaks and they just deep clean them (school not kids) and send them back.
You were only allowed to go out for shopping, exercise, work and medical treatment. No eating in so takeaway food only.
Most people worked from home if they could as there was very limited public transport as numbers were restricted on trains and buses.
Now pretty much anything is allowed as long as there is no more than 1 person per 4 sq metres. That may mean that a lot of businesses stay closed as they are not economical.
The government is paying a Job Keeper allowance which for some is more than they were earning.
That was until this latest outbreak where most states are banning people from hot spots and the whole state of Victoria.
However stocks are up, dollar is up, but we are slowly moving up the list of countries.
I had to go to an ear doctor today. The waiting room was pretty packed, I'd say about ten patients all waiting with masks. I must have"washed" my hands with antiseptic lotion about ten times. I just cancelled my follow up lung CT scan in a NYC hospital. Who wants to go into a crowded bldg like that? I'm thinking of doing the scan here in a NJ lab where it's quieter and less people. No big buildings or elevators with lots of people. Then I can consult with the pulmonologist on the phone after he's reviewed the scan results. Why risk seeing him in a crowded hospital if the scan is OK.
The schools decisions on what to do will be made in most places in the USA pretty similar to where you live. However, all bets are off once infections break out. It's a new world out there.
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I had to go to an ear doctor today. The waiting room was pretty packed, I'd say about ten patients all waiting with masks. I must have"washed" my hands with antiseptic lotion about ten times. I just cancelled my follow up lung CT scan in a NYC hospital. Who wants to go into a crowded bldg like that? I'm thinking of doing the scan here in a NJ lab where it's quieter and less people. No big buildings or elevators with lots of people. Then I can consult with the pulmonologist on the phone after he's reviewed the scan results. Why risk seeing him in a crowded hospital if the scan is OK.
The schools decisions on what to do will be made in most places in the USA pretty similar to where you live. However, all bets are off once infections break out. It's a new world out there.
I'm surprised about the waiting room with 10 patients. That's poor scheduling and very irresponsible and actually pretty stupid.
Last week, when I visited a specialist, I was told to call them from the parking lot, and when I did, got permission to walk in, and I was the only patient in his office.
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I'm surprised about the waiting room with 10 patients. That's poor scheduling and very irresponsible and actually pretty stupid.
Last week, when I visited a specialist, I was told to call them from the parking lot, and when I did, got permission to walk in, and I was the only patient in his office.
It was a big office with lots of doctors and traffic of patients. Conversely, when I went to a dentist the other day, I waited outside in my car and there was only one other guy in the waiting room when I went it. But there was only the dentist and a hygienist. That's why I don't want to go to the hospital. Too many patients; too many doctors. They can't efficiently regulate people outside the hospital too wait, like the big office I went to today. The office today could have had people waiting outside. But a NYC hospital would be very difficult. It's why I cancel my appt there that I made before Covid..
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If doctor waiting rooms have to be so selective, how are business offices, schools, malls, and other places going to have people? Here's picture I took a couple of weeks ago in a Manhattan elevator. I was the only one there. But once the city opens up to regular office traffic, there're going to be a lot more people in the elevator. The spacing is maybe four feet certainly not 6 feet or two meters. Who wants to go in an elevator up to the 56th floor with three strangers sneezing in their masks?
(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/50094956821_936e951878_c.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/2jjHKo6)
Don't crowd me (https://flic.kr/p/2jjHKo6) by Alan Klein (https://www.flickr.com/photos/alanklein2000/), on Flickr
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I'm surprised about the waiting room with 10 patients. That's poor scheduling and very irresponsible and actually pretty stupid.
Last week, when I visited a specialist, I was told to call them from the parking lot, and when I did, got permission to walk in, and I was the only patient in his office.
Here you register with the front desk where they give you a buzzer very much like you get at restaurants. You then go out of the office and wait for the buzzer to go off, after which you see your doctor. No waiting room. I believe they use a buzzer as many older folk don't have a cell phone.
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[...]However stocks are up, dollar is up, but we are slowly moving up the list of countries.
No surprise though, the stockmarket is forward-looking based on expectations of future performance. Also, a lot of money can only be earned when there is rapid movement (either up or down) in stock prices.
In the longer term, things are looking grim. Local experts/virologists do not see large scale vaccination before summertime 2021. And unemployment will rise.
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No surprise though, the stockmarket is forward-looking based on expectations of future performance. Also, a lot of money can only be earned when there is rapid movement (either up or down) in stock prices.
In the longer term, things are looking grim. Local experts/virologists do not see large scale vaccination before summertime 2021, and unemployment will rise.
Unfortunately, long after the virus is gone, we'll still be digging out of the economic hole.
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Unfortunately, long after the virus is gone, we'll still be digging out of the economic hole.
I'm actually looking forward to the day the virus is gone...I'd call that day fortunate.
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I'm surprised about the waiting room with 10 patients. That's poor scheduling and very irresponsible and actually pretty stupid.
Last week, when I visited a specialist, I was told to call them from the parking lot, and when I did, got permission to walk in, and I was the only patient in his office.
That has been my experience as well. My primary care doctor practice still won't see any patient >65 for an in office visit. Tele-medicine visits only.
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That has been my experience as well. My primary care doctor practice still won't see any patient >65 for an in office visit. Tele-medicine visits only.
Is your primary care doctor over 65? :)
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To refuse treatments or consultations for patients over 65 is not that prudent. As I understand it, the infection rate for people under or over 65 is not much different. The main difference is that the older people suffer more when they get sick.
In addition, most older people seem to be more careful when it comes to going out and social distancing, and consequently, they are not exposed to as many contacts as the younger people.
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Is your primary care doctor over 65? :)
No. It is general office policy. there are seven doctors and two PAs in the practice.
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In the 4+ months of doing my daily newsletter I've covered a lot of advances in SARS-CoV-2 research. One of my friends alerted me to this site: https://radvac.org/ It is essentially a Do It Yourself (DIY) COVID-19 vaccine project. All the steps are laid out for you to create your own nasal delivered vaccine. It's based on sound science but you do need some modest equipment to get this done. I have not costed out the needed supplies. Great example of citizen science in action!!!
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No. It is general office policy. there are seven doctors and two PAs in the practice.
Telephone conferences with a medical doctor is probably worthless unless they're a psychiatrist. :)
I went to the ear doctor because I had an infection. He couldn't check that over the phone. As I mentioned, I plan on getting a test from a lab, then let the doctor review it and talk to me over the phone. That might work. But skipping an actual hands on physical, especially for old people, could be the thing that kills them. I have a friend who thought and his doctors thought he had covid. He suffered at home for three weeks only to learn afterwards his symptoms were from cancer. He's now being treated months later than he should have been. There's risk both ways. There's no simple answer.
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I think it's fascinating that there are 3.4 times more posts on COVID-19 in the political thread than in the "non-political" (;D uh huh) thread. Evidently the subject has a lot to do with politics.
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I went to the ear doctor because I had an infection. He couldn't check that over the phone. As I mentioned, I plan on getting a test from a lab, then let the doctor review it and talk to me over the phone. That might work. But skipping an actual hands on physical, especially for old people, could be the thing that kills them. I have a friend who thought and his doctors thought he had covid. He suffered at home for three weeks only to learn afterwards his symptoms were from cancer. He's now being treated months later than he should have been. There's risk both ways. There's no simple answer.
Wow, with so many of the horror stories, you sure must have a lot of crappy doctors around where you live.
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Wow, with so many of the horror stories, you sure must have a lot of crappy doctors around where you live.
Well I live in farm and horse country in central New Jersey. Maybe I should go to a vet? :)
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I think it's fascinating that there are 3.4 times more posts on COVID-19 in the political thread than in the "non-political" (;D uh huh) thread. Evidently the subject has a lot to do with politics.
That's why there is more than one thread, Russ, with the political fatuities strictly confined.
Jeremy
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That's why there is more than one thread, Russ, with the political fatuities strictly confined.
Jeremy
You're talking about my thread. ;)
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You're talking about my thread. ;)
You do know what fatuities means?
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It's almost unbelievable, but there are still people booking and taking cruises. And invariably, there are many new infections on these cruise ships.
Covid-19 has been detected on at least two cruise ships – one in the Arctic and one in the Pacific – just weeks after cruising holidays restarted. At least 40 passengers and crew from the MS Roald Amundsen have tested positive for the novel coronavirus, and authorities are trying to contact trace hundreds of passengers from two recent Arctic voyages the ship took.
Four crew members on the MS Roald Amundsen were hospitalised on Friday when the ship arrived at the Norwegian port of Tromsø, and later diagnosed with the respiratory illness. Tests showed another 32 of the 158 staff were also infected.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/03/two-cruise-ships-hit-by-coronavirus-weeks-after-industry-restarts
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You do know what fatuities means?
Yes. You really need to get a sense of humor.
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It's almost unbelievable, but there are still people booking and taking cruises. And invariably, there are many new infections on these cruise ships.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/03/two-cruise-ships-hit-by-coronavirus-weeks-after-industry-restarts
And people say Americans are foolish.
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And people say Americans are foolish.
There is never a shortage of fools anywhere.
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It's almost unbelievable, but there are still people booking and taking cruises. And invariably, there are many new infections on these cruise ships.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/03/two-cruise-ships-hit-by-coronavirus-weeks-after-industry-restarts
The cruise industry out of Vancouver has been closed at least until October.
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And people say Americans are foolish.
Who says those aren't Americans on those cruises?
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Who says those aren't Americans on those cruises?
Where were the cruises based? Since there are restrictions on travel for Americans to quite a few countries, it might limit their number. OTOH, those restrictions are probably porous.
My brother lives in a semi-rural area north of Montreal where many of the country properties are owned by Americans. He says the number of US license plates around town is no different than it ever was. I believe that property owners from the US can go to their properties but are supposed to self-isolate for 2 weeks when they get there. Maybe some are doing that and many some aren't, hard to police everyone. High compliance helps in the fight against viral transmission.
I suppose it's no different than with crime, in the sense that authorities (police, etc.) can only really keep a lid on crime if the rate of criminal activity is low. If a large percentage of a population is committing a crime, attempts to control it will be futile, as the war on drugs has shown over the decades. So we try to hammer home the way to prevent transmission, keeping up the messaging, but in the end if a large percentage of a population decide to not listen, people will suffer. If you could guarantee that only those who did not follow guidelines would suffer, you could at least find some comfort in that the "correct" people paid the price, but this is not the case with this virus as innocent bystanders will suffer, as is usually the case. So we rely on cooperation, not an easy thing to obtain in general over long periods of time.
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Alan G: Know anything about this new anti-viral?
RLF-100
https://nypost.com/2020/08/02/relief-neurorx-rlf-100-helps-critical-covid-19-patients/
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A news article in the Netherlands stated that the risk of getting Covid-19 from surfaces like plastic and metal are based on experiments with excessive amounts of the virus ( even buffered to keep alive) that are not found in real life.
Most probable cause of contamination is inside and then in rooms with a lot of people and poor ventilation.
Discotheques, fitness rooms, crowded bars etc; i would certainly avoid, the same with cruises; confined on a ship for some days/ weeks with hundreds of people.
We see that in the meat factories the virus spreads easely; cold moist air, not well ventilated, where a lot of people are working at the same time.
Also we have a lot of migrant-workers from east-Europe in that sector that have to live in small crowded houses.
Then these workers are afraid to loose their jobs, so work while probably contaminated and the bosses try to manipulate inspections by letting these workers at home at the day of inspection..
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A news article in the Netherlands stated that the risk of getting Covid-19 from surfaces like plastic and metal are based on experiments with excessive amounts of the virus ( even buffered to keep alive) that are not found in real life.
Most probable cause of contamination is inside and then in rooms with a lot of people and poor ventilation.
Discotheques, fitness rooms, crowded bars etc; i would certainly avoid, the same with cruises; confined on a ship for some days/ weeks with hundreds of people.
We see that in the meat factories the virus spreads easely; cold moist air, not well ventilated, where a lot of people are working at the same time.
Also we have a lot of migrant-workers from east-Europe in that sector that have to live in small crowded houses.
Then these workers are afraid to loose their jobs, so work while probably contaminated and the bosses try to manipulate inspections by letting these workers at home at the day of inspection..
Do you have the link? Thanks.
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The cruise industry out of Vancouver has been closed at least until October.
It would have been quite simple to mandate testing before boarding. It took a while, but in the EU it is now a general rule for many countries for air passengers to: take a test up to 72 hours before travel; or in some cases do the test at the airport of destination.
So simple one wonders why it took so long...
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It would have been quite simple to mandate testing before boarding. It took a while, but in the EU it is now a general rule for many countries for air passengers to: take a test up to 72 hours before travel; or in some cases do the test at the airport of destination.
So simple one wonders why it took so long...
My understanding there is up to a 15% false negative result and when we are talking about a couple thousand people...something will slip through.
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It would have been quite simple to mandate testing before boarding. It took a while, but in the EU it is now a general rule for many countries for air passengers to: take a test up to 72 hours before travel; or in some cases do the test at the airport of destination.
So simple one wonders why it took so long...
Does that actually work? Major league teams in America have been checking their players constantly. Yet, the virus seems to break out anyway. I assume that not everyone who's sick gets discovered. On a ship, all you need is one sick passenger or crew member without symptoms to spread. Cruise ships are like Petri dishes for Covid.
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Tradeoffs. Not just economic. (as an aside, nice photo essay as well.)
"Fear of the coronavirus and the shuttering of clinics have kept away many patients struggling with H.I.V., TB and malaria, while restrictions on air and sea travel have severely limited delivery of medications to the hardest-hit regions."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/03/health/coronavirus-tuberculosis-aids-malaria.html
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It would have been quite simple to mandate testing before boarding. It took a while, but in the EU it is now a general rule for many countries for air passengers to: take a test up to 72 hours before travel; or in some cases do the test at the airport of destination.
So simple one wonders why it took so long...
it will surely be a bit more secure, but you may caught it last week and still not be detected.
It is certainly not 100% waterproof- that is a problem with this virus.
The same on the returnflight. if you are negative then ; you probably did not cache it before you went away.
If you are positive- damage is done in the visiting country, but you know you can go into quarantaine for not exposing more people to the virus.
I understand every week a test would be best for everyone; but not very practical.
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... Cruise ships are like Petri dishes for Covid.
:)
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Does that actually work? Major league teams in America have been checking their players constantly. Yet, the virus seems to break out anyway.
I thought the problem is that the players are going out drinking at night, which they euphemistically refer to as "compliance".
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I thought the problem is that the players are going out drinking at night, which they euphemistically refer to as "compliance".
Well we'll see how it goes with hockey. Technically the entire team is quarantined to their hotels when not playing. A team has the entire floor of a hotel. They are transported via bus to the arenas and have no access to fans. I await to see which player will be photographed partying it up at a local club.
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I thought the problem is that the players are going out drinking at night, which they euphemistically refer to as "compliance".
Well, there's no accounting for human behavior. :)
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Alan G: Know anything about this new anti-viral?
RLF-100
https://nypost.com/2020/08/02/relief-neurorx-rlf-100-helps-critical-covid-19-patients/
It is in a clinical trial or two along with about 500 other compounds. Lots of papers come out with positive data only to wash out when more patients are studied. Tocilizumab had some encouraging early data but Roche said the big clinical trial failed to show usefulness. At the end of the day, only the monoclonal antibodies may end up being useful along with dexamethasone. Merck have an experimental drug they think highly of but don't need to tout early small trials.
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It is in a clinical trial or two along with about 500 other compounds. Lots of papers come out with positive data only to wash out when more patients are studied. Tocilizumab had some encouraging early data but Roche said the big clinical trial failed to show usefulness. At the end of the day, only the monoclonal antibodies may end up being useful along with dexamethasone. Merck have an experimental drug they think highly of but don't need to tout early small trials.
I wish they'd hurry up and find something that cures you so I can get out more. :)
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I wish they'd hurry up and find something that cures you so I can get out more. :)
Actually, getting out more is not a problem. I've been going to a nearby lake 3 times a week. There is a plenty of space and water for physical separation.
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Actually, getting out more is not a problem. I've been going to a nearby lake 3 times a week. There is a plenty of space and water for physical separation.
I get my dog out twice a day, once for a 6km walk along a shoreline and then another time to go swimming in the lake. I've been biking roughly 300km a week on rolling back roads. I have a vegetable garden going and have been remodelling the landscaping around the house. Every week my brother and I alternate a bbq day, he lives 110km from me.
Things I have not done is go to bars or restaurants...which is just fine with me. I have put any travel on hold until this virus is under control.
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A new report from Italy states that the real number of people with C19 antibodies is currently about 2.5% of the population, a figure 6 times higher than the official stats. In Lombardy, this percentage was 7.5%, while in the south only 0.3%. Interpolating 2.5% average penetration onto the US population, one could assume over 8 million cases in USA (about twice as high as the official counts).
Almost 1.5 million people in Italy or 2.5% of the population have developed coronavirus antibodies, a figure six times more than official numbers reported, according to a survey from statistics agency Istat on Monday.
The survey by Istat and the health ministry, was based on antibody tests conducted on 64,660 people. Official figures show 248,229 confirmed cases of COVID-19 patients in Italy, with 35,166 deaths.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-italy/italy-survey-suggests-coronavirus-six-times-more-prevalent-than-official-data-idUSKCN24Z2IC?il=0
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Actually, getting out more is not a problem. I've been going to a nearby lake 3 times a week. There is a plenty of space and water for physical separation.
1 seat or 2 seat canoe?
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From the New York Times (https://nyti.ms/2XpK4vD):
More than a century ago, as the 1918 influenza pandemic raged in the United States, masks of gauze and cheesecloth became the facial front lines in the battle against the virus. But as they have now, the masks also stoked political division. Then, as now, medical authorities urged the wearing of masks to help slow the spread of disease. And then, as now, some people resisted.
In 1918 and 1919, as bars, saloons, restaurants, theaters and schools were closed, masks became a scapegoat, a symbol of government overreach, inspiring protests, petitions and defiant bare-face gatherings. All the while, thousands of Americans were dying in a deadly pandemic.
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1 seat or 2 seat canoe?
My canoe has 2 seats, about 8 ft apart. With a new paddler, you can use that space for social distancing and once you get to know her better, you can get really close together.
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Well we'll see how it goes with hockey. Technically the entire team is quarantined to their hotels when not playing. A team has the entire floor of a hotel. They are transported via bus to the arenas and have no access to fans. I await to see which player will be photographed partying it up at a local club.
I watched a game on Sunday afternoon. It is not the same without the fans.
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My canoe has 2 seats, about 8 ft apart. With a new paddler, you can use that space for social distancing and once you get to know her better, you can get really close together.
You have to wait 14 days before getting too close.
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I watched a game on Sunday afternoon. It is not the same without the fans.
I was watching a baseball game the other day. They cloned in fans in the stands. And the cheers and background noise. What if the entire Covid thing is just our imagination or a dubbed in AI show? :)
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Does that actually work? Major league teams in America have been checking their players constantly. Yet, the virus seems to break out anyway. I assume that not everyone who's sick gets discovered. On a ship, all you need is one sick passenger or crew member without symptoms to spread. Cruise ships are like Petri dishes for Covid.
In Portugal, some sports were restarted (no public). Everyone involved is tested twice: 72 hours before the match, and a few hours before the match.
Yes it works. Say you have a cruise with 2000 people: test them all before boarding, say 24 hours before. Of course there is a residual risk of someone who got negative result becoming infected 1 hour before boarding, but that is a small risk. Simple and effective.
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In Portugal, some sports were restarted (no public). Everyone involved is tested twice: 72 hours before the match, and a few hours before the match.
Yes it works. Say you have a cruise with 2000 people: test them all before boarding, say 24 hours before. Of course there is a residual risk of someone who got negative result becoming infected 1 hour before boarding, but that is a small risk. Simple and effective.
Tests are not 100% accurate. Something like a 15% false negative rate.
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The last two posts are examples why everyone has difficulty in knowing what to do. Mistakes are made because the "truth" is hard to get a handle on. In America, we have 50 governors and one president who think they know what to do. Add to that the medical and economic communities. So everyone is doing it slightly differently or on a different timetable. The truth is there's is no exact answer. Health priorities are opposed to economic priorities. You can't satisfy both areas simultaneously. We're all shooting craps.
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The last two posts are examples why everyone has difficulty in knowing what to do. Mistakes are made because the "truth" is hard to get a handle on. In America, we have 50 governors and one president who think they know what to do. Add to that the medical and economic communities. So everyone is doing it slightly differently or on a different timetable. The truth is there's is no exact answer. Health priorities are opposed to economic priorities. You can't satisfy both areas simultaneously. We're all shooting craps.
And that's exactly how things are being handled...a crapshoot.
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Say you have a cruise with 2000 people: test them all before boarding, say 24 hours before. Of course there is a residual risk of someone who got negative result becoming infected 1 hour before boarding, but that is a small risk. Simple and effective.
Or you could say to yourself that perhaps now is not the best time to go on a cruise. Simple and effective.
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Tests are not 100% accurate. Something like a 15% false negative rate.
Sure. But much better than not testing.
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The last two posts are examples why everyone has difficulty in knowing what to do. Mistakes are made because the "truth" is hard to get a handle on. In America, we have 50 governors and one president who think they know what to do. Add to that the medical and economic communities. So everyone is doing it slightly differently or on a different timetable. The truth is there's is no exact answer. Health priorities are opposed to economic priorities. You can't satisfy both areas simultaneously. We're all shooting craps.
It is not difficult knowing what to do. Test travellers is what is required to do. Of course there is no 100%accuracy, but 85 % is better than letting travellers board planes or boats with no testing. Implementing some basic effective public health rules is simple. Those rules allow health and economy to walk alongside. If a surge occurs, or second wave, authorities simply need to be prepared to handle them.
A clear message from the parties in government is required, from national to state level. People's lifes are more important than egotistical priorities.
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Or you could say to yourself that perhaps now is not the best time to go on a cruise. Simple and effective.
Sure. But that has no bearing on what the policy wrt travelling should be. Right now, in the EU, testing is required for airplane travel, cruise ships should be the same.
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Right now, here in central New Jersey, the tropical storm Isaias is starting to hit. Some things, you have to batten down the hatches and ride it out. There's not much you can do. There is no exact answer that will cure the problem. Covid 19 is like that. It's a terrible plague that is hurting us medically and economically as well as socially and politically. Whatever we do will not eliminate the disastrous effects. Insisting you know the correct plan to conquer it is a fool's errand.
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Right now, here in central New Jersey, the tropical storm Isaias is starting to hit. Some things, you have to batten down the hatches and ride it out. There's not much you can do. There is no exact answer that will cure the problem. Covid 19 is like that. It's a terrible plague that is hurting us medically and economically as well as socially and politically. Whatever we do will not eliminate the disastrous effects. Insisting you know the correct plan to conquer it is a fool's errand.
Don't get your panties in a bunch. It's a routine tropical storm, not a hurricane. Obviously a local problem.
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Right now, here in central New Jersey, the tropical storm Isaias is starting to hit. Some things, you have to batten down the hatches and ride it out. There's not much you can do. There is no exact answer that will cure the problem. Covid 19 is like that. It's a terrible plague that is hurting us medically and economically as well as socially and politically. Whatever we do will not eliminate the disastrous effects. Insisting you know the correct plan to conquer it is a fool's errand.
But there are many examples of what needs to be done to fight this virus...many successful examples of countries doing it right. Insisting on doing the same thing that has got you into this mess is truly a fool's errand.
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Don't get your panties in a bunch. It's a routine tropical storm, not a hurricane. Obviously a local problem.
Well it's a problem for us. We just lost power.
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Well it's a problem for us. We just lost power.
Be patient. It will come back on. I lose power practically every time it rains. There are a lot of trees around here.
Think of how great you have it. You are not worried about how you are going to pay your rent or feed your family. Just pretend you are camping.
By the way, before losing power, was Trump on TV with a map and a Sharpie showing where the storm was headed? Alabama perhaps?
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Well it's a problem for us. We just lost power.
I as in Tansania for 3 weeks. We lost power daily, many times a day for extended time. We lost water daily, many times a day for extended times. It was a very care occurance th have power and water on at the same time...so no hot water.
Sometimes we need to travel to other parts of this world to know how blessed we are at hone.
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Well we are very blessed. But my wife still wants to get an emergency generator. 😎
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Sure. But much better than not testing.
Perhaps. It depends on how much confidence is placed in a negative result that might well (some reports suggest 30%) be false and how one is expected to react to a negative test.
Jeremy
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Worse will be the efficacy of any vaccines. The seasonal flu vaccine is around 40% effective. Let's say the Covid vaccine is 50%. How much confidence will you have traveling in a plane or on a ship if you got the vaccine? For an old guy like me, those aren't very good odds. So how much will behavior change? Frankly the only way we'll get back to normal is when the virus goes away.
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The seasonal flu vaccine is around 40% effective.
Those odds sound awfully pessimistic. Do you have a link?
Let's say the Covid vaccine is 50%. How much confidence will you have traveling in a plane or on a ship if you got the vaccine? For an old guy like me, those aren't very good odds. So how much will behavior change?
Some people are more risk adverse than others, so judgments about air and sea travel will vary quite a bit.
Frankly the only way we'll get back to normal is when the virus goes away.
The COVID-19 virus is not going anywhere, so things will never get back to "normal." People will just have to make adjustments in their lives.
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Perhaps. It depends on how much confidence is placed in a negative result that might well (some reports suggest 30%) be false and how one is expected to react to a negative test.
Jeremy
True. One way to deal with that is step it up a notch and do 2 tests either to confirm positive or to confirm negative. This is being done in Portugal for all participants in football matches (2 tests).
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Worse will be the efficacy of any vaccines. The seasonal flu vaccine is around 40% effective. Let's say the Covid vaccine is 50%. How much confidence will you have traveling in a plane or on a ship if you got the vaccine? For an old guy like me, those aren't very good odds. So how much will behavior change? Frankly the only way we'll get back to normal is when the virus goes away.
Again, better than 0%. And no, the virus will not go away. It will become endemic in the population. I would have no problem travelling on a plane. On a cruise ship, no money for that...
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True. One way to deal with that is step it up a notch and do 2 tests either to confirm positive or to confirm negative. This is being done in Portugal for all participants in football matches (2 tests).
So you can ask yourself ; why don't they do it for everybody...:
too much work- not enough manhours
too much costs... i believe 150 € a test
not enough testkits ...
then it provides only a valid answer for a very limited time. So a very costly operation.
It could help if you could do a test of every citizen at one time and then put the positives in quarantaine.
They did that in China i believe.
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Worse will be the efficacy of any vaccines. The seasonal flu vaccine is around 40% effective. Let's say the Covid vaccine is 50%. How much confidence will you have traveling in a plane or on a ship if you got the vaccine?
The seasonal influenza vaccine varies in efficacy because of viral mutation. CDC makes an educated guess in January about what types of flu strains will be circulating in the fall/winter months. they provide this information to the manufacturers who manufacture the vaccine. If the guess is wrong or there is a new mutation the vaccine will not work as well. Most recent influenza vaccines have more than one strain. It is also complicated by the embyonated egg manufacturing process. COVID-19 vaccines are quite different as the virus is now well known and we know what type of antigen needs to be expressed in the vaccine. the difficulty is that we have a variety of different approaches and the two newest gene based vaccines do not have a commercial track record. Fortunately, we have some traditional protein and attenuated or inactivated viral vaccines also being developed. I am optimistic that we will have a good vaccine for COVID-19 but I don't know at this point which will be the best one.
If we do get a vaccine it will take several months before enough people are vaccinated and herd immunity is achieved. Most of the vaccines in trials right now require two injections at a 28 day interval for full antibody response. You can do the math to see how long this will take.
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Perhaps. It depends on how much confidence is placed in a negative result that might well (some reports suggest 30%) be false and how one is expected to react to a negative test.
Jeremy
I don't think the testing situation is this bleak. Every day I see new approaches to testing that have very high specificity and sensitivity. The difficulty is getting some of these rolled out at commercial scale. Serology tests are complicated in that some recovered SARS-CoV-2 infected patients, particularly younger ones, do not mount a major antibody response and hence test negative.
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So you can ask yourself ; why don't they do it for everybody...:
too much work- not enough manhours
too much costs... i believe 150 € a test
not enough testkits ...
then it provides only a valid answer for a very limited time. So a very costly operation.
It could help if you could do a test of every citizen at one time and then put the positives in quarantaine.
They did that in China i believe.
Basically anyone who tests positive in Canada needs to be quarantined. That's just smart. Here in BC there is also contact tracing and all contacts are asked to self quarantine.
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Basically anyone who tests positive in Canada needs to be quarantined. That's just smart. Here in BC there is also contact tracing and all contacts are asked to self quarantine.
only one in ten Canadians have been tested. What about the other 90%?
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only one in ten Canadians have been tested. What about the other 90%?
I believe testing gets extensive in areas where there are outbreaks. Contact tracing and isolation is key. As of today I believe BC only has 195 deaths from Covid.
I was sick back in April and was tested. Result was back in less than 24 hours. That turn around is key for tracing.
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Right now, here in central New Jersey, the tropical storm Isaias is starting to hit. Some things, you have to batten down the hatches and ride it out. There's not much you can do. There is no exact answer that will cure the problem. Covid 19 is like that. It's a terrible plague that is hurting us medically and economically as well as socially and politically. Whatever we do will not eliminate the disastrous effects. Insisting you know the correct plan to conquer it is a fool's errand.
As mentioned so many times before, but still you refuse to accept: many countries have taken effective and timely mitigating measures against economic and health consequences. Your approach is typical:
1. You ask a question or raise a subject.
2.People here reply with concrete measures that have been proved to be effective, not 100%, but better than doing nothing.
3. Then you come back and reply that there is nothing we can do and whatever is being done is not effective.
Pointless to discuss with you.
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So you can ask yourself ; why don't they do it for everybody...:
too much work- not enough manhours
too much costs... i believe 150 € a test
not enough testkits ...
then it provides only a valid answer for a very limited time. So a very costly operation.
It could help if you could do a test of every citizen at one time and then put the positives in quarantaine.
They did that in China i believe.
Then priorities need to be decided in the sectors that are critical for health care and economy. In Portugal we are doubling up on daily testing capacity to be ready for Autumn and Winter. When students go back to school for example, they will be tested for the virus. Regional serological testing campaigns have also started, to estimate exposure to the virus while not presenting symptoms.
This has been done in several regions for hospital staff and caring homes staff, for example.
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only one in ten Canadians have been tested. What about the other 90%?
Testing policy changes between countries. If Canada is the same as Portugal, the people that get tested need to fill some criteria: show symptoms, contact with positive cases, preventive testing for some professions.
Each country should have such criteria pretty well established by now.
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only one in ten Canadians have been tested. What about the other 90%?
They haven't been tested.
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So you don't know who of 90% of the people are carriers.
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So you don't know who of 90% of the people are carriers.
There is no infection risk, if you keep at a safe distance even from untested individuals. There is no need to come into a close contact with most strangers.
The last time I got really close to someone was when I visited my dentist.
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So you don't know who of 90% of the people are carriers.
Not only that, but 90% or more of those 10% who were tested, tested negative, but subsequently may have become infected. So really you don't know who of the 99% of the population are carriers. Let's all throw our hands up in the air and run around in circles, which is where I think you were headed with your line of questioning.
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I don't think the testing situation is this bleak. Every day I see new approaches to testing that have very high specificity and sensitivity. The difficulty is getting some of these rolled out at commercial scale. Serology tests are complicated in that some recovered SARS-CoV-2 infected patients, particularly younger ones, do not mount a major antibody response and hence test negative.
Your last sentence rather makes my point. If post-infection immunity (assuming that it exists at all, or persists for any great period) is mediated by T cells rather than by circulating antibodies, serology testing becomes pretty much useless.
Jeremy
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Your last sentence rather makes my point. If post-infection immunity (assuming that it exists at all, or persists for any great period) is mediated by T cells rather than by circulating antibodies, serology testing becomes pretty much useless.
Jeremy
No disagreement. I think the gene PCR tests are very accurate. Still the antibody tests do have a purpose, and can give a broad population overview of infection rate.
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The test numbers for the US seem to be as high as almost anywhere in the world. I doubt that a lack of testing or imperfect testing is an issue.
No test is perfect, whether it is a Cover Test test, or a pregnancy test or content of alcohol test. That is why they test again.
The issue seems to be that if someone tests positive they need to be isolated for say 14 days. When that happens the infection rate always goes down. You can't catch the disease unless you come in contact with someone who has it.
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The test numbers for the US seem to be as high as almost anywhere in the world. I doubt that a lack of testing or imperfect testing is an issue.
No test is perfect, whether it is a Cover Test test, or a pregnancy test or content of alcohol test. That is why they test again.
The issue seems to be that if someone tests positive they need to be isolated for say 14 days. When that happens the infection rate always goes down. You can't catch the disease unless you come in contact with someone who has it.
I've been hearing test results in some areas take more than a week to get back. Taking that long results in any kind of tracing to be useless. Without tracing and dealing with all the contacts...you have no control.
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No disagreement. I think the gene PCR tests are very accurate. Still the antibody tests do have a purpose, and can give a broad population overview of infection rate.
Their results are a reasonably accurate reflection of gene content in the sample provided, yes. The problem is getting a decent sample. The procedure, if carried out properly, is really rather unpleasant. The likelihood of many people getting adequate samples by swabbing themselves is small.
Jeremy
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Their results are a reasonably accurate reflection of gene content in the sample provided, yes. The problem is getting a decent sample. The procedure, if carried out properly, is really rather unpleasant. The likelihood of many people getting adequate samples by swabbing themselves is small.
Jeremy
I've seen a number of papers that seem to counter what you say above regarding self collection. Lots of work on this in both Germany and the US. Saliva testing also appears to be a good approach for collection.
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I did one of those DNA heritage tests. They mail you this little test tube that you spit into a little, seal the tube, and mail back in the pre-addressed and postage paid envelope. It took two weeks or so to get the results. But that could be expedited in the case of Covid.
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Survival from Covid is improving.
"In California, 3.6% of people diagnosed with COVID-19 between March and May died of the disease. Among those diagnosed between June 1 and Aug. 3, that figure dropped to 1.2%, according to a Times analysis of state data. Expanded testing, changing patient demographics and better patient care all played a role in that drop, experts say."
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2020-08-09/covid-19-coronavirus-survival-rate-improves
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This article does not understand or explain the statistics properly. For example, it says
The statistic is what epidemiologists call the case-fatality rate: the number of deaths divided by the number of cases. This measures how deadly the disease is once people catch it — the chance of surviving.
Those two statements are not consistent. Statistical reasoning left to the reader ...
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Expanded testing, changing patient demographics and better patient care all played a role in that drop, experts say.
All these factors are quite logical, you don't need to be an epidemiologist to come to a such conclusion. You could add also the high temperatures in this summer season and more physical distancing during the outdoor activities. Combined, these factors contribute indeed to lower death rates. In any country, under any system.
On the other hand, inviting 250,000 visitors to the Sturgis motorcycle rally is anything but logical. I wonder how many infections and deaths will results from this event.
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All these factors are quite logical, you don't need to be an epidemiologist to come to a such conclusion. You could add also the high temperatures in this summer season and more physical distancing during the outdoor activities. Combined, these factors contribute indeed to lower death rates. In any country, under any system.
On the other hand, inviting 250,000 visitors to the Sturgis motorcycle rally is anything but logical. I wonder how many infections and deaths will results from this event.
The point of my post was that in California, the death rate went down 2/3rds during June and July compared to March through May. So we're getting better at treating it. (Also older people are being protected better from getting it in the first place.)
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The point of my post was that in California, the death rate went down 2/3rds during June and July compared to March through May. So we're getting better at treating it. (Also older people are being protected better from getting it in the first place.)
I think the big change is the demographics...older people have it figured out that they are very suspect and stay safe while the younger crowd party hardy.
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The point of my post was that in California, the death rate went down 2/3rds during June and July compared to March through May. So we're getting better at treating it. (Also older people are being protected better from getting it in the first place.)
When you say "death rate" I believe you are referring to a ratio, where the numerator is the number of deaths in a particular time period, and the denominator is the number of new cases in that same time period. This is a peculiar statistic, since the populations in the numerator and denominator are completely different. One way this ratio could get lower over time is for more people to be tested, resulting in a larger denominator, without affecting the numerator. Beware of drawing conclusions about mortality from such a peculiar statistic.
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When you say "death rate" I believe you are referring to a ratio, where the numerator is the number of deaths in a particular time period, and the denominator is the number of new cases in that same time period. This is a peculiar statistic, since the populations in the numerator and denominator are completely different. One way this ratio could get lower over time is for more people to be tested, resulting in a larger denominator, without affecting the numerator. Beware of drawing conclusions about mortality from such a peculiar statistic.
"Death rate" is vague. The article distinguished "case-fatality rate" and "mortality-rate". It seems like we should look at both rates since they provide different information. I tend to look at the number, not the rate, of deaths. It sure seems like a lot of people are dying. What is it? 165,000 or so with another 1,000 dying every day? One model predicted 300,000 by December. And now we are opening schools for in-person instruction. There will be deaths among children, but the greater number will be among teachers and staff. I am sure some think it is a necessary evil. They never say exactly how they arrived at that conclusion.
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When you say "death rate" I believe you are referring to a ratio, where the numerator is the number of deaths in a particular time period, and the denominator is the number of new cases in that same time period. This is a peculiar statistic, since the populations in the numerator and denominator are completely different. One way this ratio could get lower over time is for more people to be tested, resulting in a larger denominator, without affecting the numerator. Beware of drawing conclusions about mortality from such a peculiar statistic.
I agree. Statistics can distort supposed truths depending on how you look at them. One thing that was reported about the testing in California, was that the rate for infection is around 21%. So it seems to have been moving through the community more than before when it was around 10%.
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"Death rate" is vague. The article distinguished "case-fatality rate" and "mortality-rate". It seems like we should look at both rates since they provide you with different information. I tend to look at the number, not the rate, of deaths. It sure seems like a lot of people are dying. What is it? 165,000 or so with another 1,000 dying every day? One model predicted 300,000 by December. And now we are opening schools for in-person instruction. There will be deaths among children, but the greater number will be among teachers and staff.
Maybe better now than later? It may turn out that other countries are going to just get hit later once they start opening up more. You can't hide forever.
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Maybe better now than later? It may turn out that other countries are going to just get hit later once they start opening up more. You can't hide forever.
I'm note sure why a death now would be "better" than a death later. I haven't done an exhaustive analysis, but I have the impression that other countries are already more open than we are, and they don't appear to be reporting a lot of cases or deaths. I don't know about hiding, but you can certainly mitigate you risks for a long time.
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I'm note sure why a death now would be "better" than a death later. I haven't done an exhaustive analysis, but I have the impression that other countries are already more open than we are, and they don't appear to be reporting a lot of cases or deaths. I don't know about hiding, but you can certainly mitigate you risks for a long time.
I believe Australia and New Zealand shut down again because of some new cases. I think parts of Germany shut down too. How many times are they going to keep doing that? If the virus doesn't go away on its on, eventually they're going to stay open and the virus will go through the community like what's happening in the USA. Pay now or pay later. Meanwhile the economy is going no where. The virus affects health and the economy. People have to eat as well as stay healthy. Eating helps people stay alive and healthy too.
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I believe Australia and New Zealand shut down again because of some new cases. I think parts of Germany shut down too. How many times are they going to keep doing that? If the virus doesn't go away on its on, eventually they're going to stay open and the virus will go through the community like what's happening in the USA. Pay now or pay later. Meanwhile the economy is going no where. The virus affects health and the economy. People have to eat as well as stay healthy. Eating helps people stay alive and healthy too.
If you'll provide the links to the information about Australia, New Zealand and Germany I'll be happy to look at them. The virus does affect health and the economy. I haven't had any problem accessing food. For the first couple of months, we had food delivered. Now we are ordering it online and picking it up. I haven't been in a restaurant since March. I may never eat in a restaurant again. I also have had no problem accessing medical care. I have visited my doctors a half a dozen times since March, including yesterday.
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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53741091
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-53718184
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53579731
above what i could quickly find. Bart will have better info.
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Eating out was a treat we had a few times a year for special occasions when i was growing up in the 60's. Not a near daily activity like so many with means practiced until March. We may be returning to the old ways at least partially. If you can make it at home, the cost is maybe a third to half of eating out.
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I agree. Statistics can distort supposed truths depending on how you look at them. One thing that was reported about the testing in California, was that the rate for infection is around 21%. So it seems to have been moving through the community more than before when it was around 10%.
California is having some problem collecting and reporting data which may go back months. I would treat its statistics with caution.
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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53741091
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-53718184
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53579731
above what i could quickly find. Bart will have better info.
Thanks for providing the links. The first one regarding NZ had the following info: "Auckland residents will be asked to stay at home, large gatherings will be banned, non-essential businesses will be shut, and some social-distancing restrictions will be reintroduced in the rest of the country."
The point in my previous post was that countries can't keep shutting down their economies because of a few cases. In this case it was all members of a single family. At some point, governments are going to just leave it alone, shut down nothing, tell people to be careful, and get on with life. Then the breakouts will be worse like in America. Maybe the US is just getting to that point quicker, like Sweden. Delaying just screws up the economy more. Of course, the hope is that we'll find a vaccine or that the virus will dissipate on it's on. In that case, maybe holding off longer makes sense. But we really don't know for sure which is the best way. Current statistics and appearances could be fooling us.
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Eating out was a treat we had a few times a year for special occasions when i was growing up in the 60's. Not a near daily activity like so many with means practiced until March. We may be returning to the old ways at least partially. If you can make it at home, the cost is maybe a third to half of eating out.
Definitely saving a lot of money by not eating out. Also, no vacations, movies, theater, travelling, less gasoline. I haven't played poker in months. But I usually win. Sitting home looking at eBay, I've bought three additional large format lenses in the interim. I haven't gotten Covid but I've had a lot of GAS. :)
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Thanks for providing the links. The first one regarding NZ had the following info: "Auckland residents will be asked to stay at home, large gatherings will be banned, non-essential businesses will be shut, and some social-distancing restrictions will be reintroduced in the rest of the country."
Yes, New Zealand had four new cases, its first in 102 days. No new deaths. The lockdown was for three days.
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Yes, New Zealand had four new cases, its first in 102 days. No new deaths. The lockdown was for three days.
Are they going to keep doing that? What about schools? Were they shut down too?
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So I was in the store today to return something and took a chance. Everyone was masked up and separated by 6 feet. Notice the signs on the floor. People here in New Jersey seem to be doing their part.
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Are they going to keep doing that? What about schools? Were they shut down too?
I suspect they will keep doing "that" for the foreseeable future. I don't know about the schools. You would have to research that.
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So I was in the store today to return something and took a chance. Everyone was masked up and separated by 6 feet. Notice the signs on the floor. People here in New Jersey seem to be doing their part.
That's an awfully small sample size from which to be drawing conclusions. The population of New Jersey is around nine million and I see eleven people in the picture, say an even dozen including you. You must be feeling especially optimistic today.
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So I was in the store today to return something and took a chance. Everyone was masked up and separated by 6 feet. Notice the signs on the floor. People here in New Jersey seem to be doing their part.
Grocery stores are one thing...what about bars and restaurants and even house parties? I have not heard of an outbreak from a grocery store...but bars, restaurants and house parties...yep.
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Thanks for providing the links. The first one regarding NZ had the following info: "Auckland residents will be asked to stay at home, large gatherings will be banned, non-essential businesses will be shut, and some social-distancing restrictions will be reintroduced in the rest of the country."
The point in my previous post was that countries can't keep shutting down their economies because of a few cases. In this case it was all members of a single family. At some point, governments are going to just leave it alone, shut down nothing, tell people to be careful, and get on with life. Then the breakouts will be worse like in America. Maybe the US is just getting to that point quicker, like Sweden. Delaying just screws up the economy more. Of course, the hope is that we'll find a vaccine or that the virus will dissipate on it's on. In that case, maybe holding off longer makes sense. But we really don't know for sure which is the best way. Current statistics and appearances could be fooling us.
Well Alan, do as you say. Open up...go to restaurants, bars and your favourite pizza hangout instead of locking yourself away. Do your bit of getting it sooner so you can move on with your life.
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https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53741091
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-53718184
https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53579731
above what i could quickly find. Bart will have better info.
The lock-downs, or merely more strict measures like mandatory use of mouth/nose masks, in Europe are usually local. So local outbreaks, e.g. from someone coming in from a different country, will trigger local action to reduce the risk of uncontrolled spreading.
The reopening of schools, after the summer holidays, will be monitored closely. The younger population may have a lower (but not zero!) risk of developing severe symptoms, they do become vectors of transmission to the older segment of the population.
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The virus affects health and the economy. People have to eat as well as stay healthy. Eating helps people stay alive and healthy too.
Especially if they stay at home and cook their meals from scratch.
BTW, Toronto had in July only 18 coronavirus deaths vs 27 deaths from opioid overdoses. Compare that with Miami which has more C19 deaths in a single day.
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Thanks for providing the links. The first one regarding NZ had the following info: "Auckland residents will be asked to stay at home, large gatherings will be banned, non-essential businesses will be shut, and some social-distancing restrictions will be reintroduced in the rest of the country."
The point in my previous post was that countries can't keep shutting down their economies because of a few cases. In this case it was all members of a single family. At some point, governments are going to just leave it alone, shut down nothing, tell people to be careful, and get on with life. Then the breakouts will be worse like in America. Maybe the US is just getting to that point quicker, like Sweden. Delaying just screws up the economy more. Of course, the hope is that we'll find a vaccine or that the virus will dissipate on it's on. In that case, maybe holding off longer makes sense. But we really don't know for sure which is the best way. Current statistics and appearances could be fooling us.
The shutdowns in Europe are regional and local at this stage. Not nationwide. The problem is that "a few cases" left unchecked will quickly ramp up to hundreds and thousands. Look at Spain right now. And it takes time to curbdown the growth curve of infections; it took 2 months in the Lisbon area to go from 300 new cases a day to the current 100 or so.
Identifying and isolating new cases and their contacts quickly is key. In the meantime, economy is slowly recovering, even thought it is clear that people are still afraid of travelling.
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The point in my previous post was that countries can't keep shutting down their economies because of a few cases. In this case it was all members of a single family. At some point, governments are going to just leave it alone, shut down nothing, tell people to be careful, and get on with life. Then the breakouts will be worse like in America. Maybe the US is just getting to that point quicker, like Sweden. Delaying just screws up the economy more. Of course, the hope is that we'll find a vaccine or that the virus will dissipate on it's on. In that case, maybe holding off longer makes sense. But we really don't know for sure which is the best way. Current statistics and appearances could be fooling us.
As you said in a previous post, we are getting better at treating the disease, so the longer we can hold it off, the better are the chances of patients. On top of that, if we get a flood of cases then hospitals will be overwhelmed and treatment will be even worse. For now we don't seem to have a solution except to keep the incidences down to manageable levels (however defined) until a vaccine or other silver bullet is found.
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Grocery stores are one thing...what about bars and restaurants and even house parties? I have not heard of an outbreak from a grocery store...but bars, restaurants and house parties...yep.
In New Jersey, indoor dining isn't allowed. Also in NYC where I was on MOnday, I saw that restaurants are building seating arrangements in gutters next to curbs and on sidewalks. It's a desperate situation and doesn't seem to be working. Few people seem to be eating. When the temperature is 93 degrees and humid, who wants to "fine dine"? Maybe it's better at night but there doesn't seem to be anyone in the city, especially in the business areas in Midtown.
No I'm not going to bars and house parties. Do I seem stupid? What I said was that governments may reach the point that when there are a few new cases, they're not going to shut down their economies again like they just did in New Zealand and Australia. They'll tell people to stop speeding, buckle up their seat belts and stop texting, not to stop driving.
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Especially if they stay at home and cook their meals from scratch.
BTW, Toronto had in July only 18 coronavirus deaths vs 27 deaths from opioid overdoses. Compare that with Miami which has more C19 deaths in a single day.
Is anyone working in Canada? What accounts for the low numbers?
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No I'm not going to bars and house parties. Do I seem stupid? What I said was that governments may reach the point that when there are a few new cases, they're not going to shut down their economies again like they just did in New Zealand and Australia. They'll tell people to stop speeding, buckle up their seat belts and stop texting, not to stop driving.
You can schedule a trip to Russia and get vaccinated as they are going to begin mass vaccination using their locally developed vaccine.
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Especially if they stay at home and cook their meals from scratch.
BTW, Toronto had in July only 18 coronavirus deaths vs 27 deaths from opioid overdoses. Compare that with Miami which has more C19 deaths in a single day.
NYC has been having daily death in the single digits in August which is pretty good for a city of 8 1/2 million. Of course, every's moved out so there's only about 200 people left in the city. :)
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No I'm not going to bars and house parties. Do I seem stupid? What I said was that governments may reach the point that when there are a few new cases, they're not going to shut down their economies again like they just did in New Zealand and Australia. They'll tell people to stop speeding, buckle up their seat belts and stop texting, not to stop driving.
Do you think New Zealand is doing things the wrong way? They've got 4 cases and we've got 50,000. Must be all the testing.
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Do you think New Zealand is doing things the wrong way? They've got 4 cases and we've got 50,000. Must be all the testing.
Do you think New Zealand is doing things the wrong way? They've got 4 cases and we've got 50,000. Must be all the testing.
No. I'm just commenting on the fact that they shut down their economy because of 4 cases and I doubt whether they'll keep doing that. But I'm glad they're doing what they do. We have a huge comparison matrix from countries across the globe to see how different methods affect medical and economic results.
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Is anyone working in Canada? What accounts for the low numbers?
Maybe they are wearing masks, social distancing, and washing their hands. Maybe they are not going to bars and house parties. Maybe they are acting like responsible adults.
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Maybe they are wearing masks, social distancing, and washing their hands. Maybe they are not going to bars and house parties. Maybe they are acting like responsible adults.
Your sarcasm is demeaning and mean. Most Americans don't go to house parties and bars. Most dead to date are old people many who lived in nursing and old age homes who didn't go gallivanting around. There's more to the spread than that. Italy, Spain, etc have high rates as well.
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Your sarcasm is demeaning and mean. Most Americans don't go to house parties and bars. Most dead to date are old people many who lived in nursing and old age homes who didn't go gallivanting around. There's more to the spread than that. Italy, Spain, etc have high rates as well.
Italy had 412 new cases and 6 new deaths yesterday. Spain had 3,632 new cases and 5 new deaths yesterday. The United States had 54,443 new cases and 1,334 new deaths yesterday.
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In New Jersey, indoor dining isn't allowed. Also in NYC where I was on MOnday, I saw that restaurants are building seating arrangements in gutters next to curbs and on sidewalks. It's a desperate situation and doesn't seem to be working. Few people seem to be eating. When the temperature is 93 degrees and humid, who wants to "fine dine"? Maybe it's better at night but there doesn't seem to be anyone in the city, especially in the business areas in Midtown.
No I'm not going to bars and house parties. Do I seem stupid? What I said was that governments may reach the point that when there are a few new cases, they're not going to shut down their economies again like they just did in New Zealand and Australia. They'll tell people to stop speeding, buckle up their seat belts and stop texting, not to stop driving.
Well I guess that's the difference between New Zealand and the US...New Zealand has 4 deaths per millions n people, the US 504...and I don't see the US economy doing so well. No idea about the New Zealand economy.
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Is anyone working in Canada? What accounts for the low numbers?
My part of Canada has opened up quite a while ago. In my city restaurants and bars are open for both indoor and outdoor dining / drinking. Barbers have opened up long ago. Doctors have always been open, though at the height of the outbreak they did more video / telephone consulting. Banks open, hardware stores doing a great business. Fruit stands and landscape outfits open. Truly, I don't think anything is closed.
We are a tourist town and I see plenty of tourists.
My 3 kids never stopped working throughout the entire epidemic.
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No I'm not going to bars and house parties. Do I seem stupid? What I said was that governments may reach the point that when there are a few new cases, they're not going to shut down their economies again like they just did in New Zealand and Australia. They'll tell people to stop speeding, buckle up their seat belts and stop texting, not to stop driving.
NZ and Australia have shut down on a regional basis. You seem to confuse local versus global shut downs.
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No. I'm just commenting on the fact that they shut down their economy because of 4 cases and I doubt whether they'll keep doing that.
Did they REALLY SHUT DOWN their economy because of 4 cases?
Your outlandish statements do not lend credence to your arguments.
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Italy had 412 new cases and 6 new deaths yesterday. Spain had 3,632 new cases and 5 new deaths yesterday. The United States had 54,443 new cases and 1,334 new deaths yesterday.
Spain and Italy have higher death rates than America. They are number 4 and 5 worse in the world. The US is 8th. Thereare lies, damn lies, and statistics.
Confirmed deaths (absolute) Daily increase (# deaths)¹ Population (in millions) Deaths per million
Belgium 9,885 6 11.42 865.43
United Kingdom² 46,526 0 66.49 699.75
Peru 21,501 225 31.99 672.13
Spain 28,581 5 46.72 611.7
Italy 35,215 6 60.43 582.73
Sweden 5,770 4 10.18 566.62
Chile 10,178 39 18.73 543.43
USA² 164,234 1,064 327.17 501.99
Brazil 101,752 0 209.47 485.76
France² 30,216 1 66.99 451.07
Mexico 53,929 926 126.19 427.36
Panama 1,680 16 4.18 402.21
Ireland 1,773 1 4.85 365.3
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/
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My part of Canada has opened up quite a while ago. In my city restaurants and bars are open for both indoor and outdoor dining / drinking. Barbers have opened up long ago. Doctors have always been open, though at the height of the outbreak they did more video / telephone consulting. Banks open, hardware stores doing a great business. Fruit stands and landscape outfits open. Truly, I don't think anything is closed.
We are a tourist town and I see plenty of tourists.
My 3 kids never stopped working throughout the entire epidemic.
So what accounts for the low rates? Most things are still locked up here although the rates are a lot lower now.
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Spain and Italy have higher death rates than America. They are number 4 and 5 worse in the world. The US is 8th. Thereare lies, damn lies, and statistics.
And so you go with the statistics.
I don't know about you, but I am pretty embarrassed by the US being eighth worst. Think of all those "shithole countries" that are doing better than we are. And where else on the planet are people getting shot in stores over wearing a mask?
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Spain and Italy have higher death rates than America. They are number 4 and 5 worse in the world. The US is 8th.
But they are both done with the first wave (roughly speaking) whereas the US is still on the up-ramp
Thereare lies, damn lies, and statistics.
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Spain and Italy have higher death rates than America. They are number 4 and 5 worse in the world. The US is 8th. Thereare lies, damn lies, and statistics.
Confirmed deaths (absolute) Daily increase (# deaths)¹ Population (in millions) Deaths per million
Belgium 9,885 6 11.42 865.43
United Kingdom² 46,526 0 66.49 699.75
Peru 21,501 225 31.99 672.13
Spain 28,581 5 46.72 611.7
Italy 35,215 6 60.43 582.73
Sweden 5,770 4 10.18 566.62
Chile 10,178 39 18.73 543.43
USA² 164,234 1,064 327.17 501.99
Brazil 101,752 0 209.47 485.76
France² 30,216 1 66.99 451.07
Mexico 53,929 926 126.19 427.36
Panama 1,680 16 4.18 402.21
Ireland 1,773 1 4.85 365.3
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/
But what have they done lately. Sure Spain and Italy are bad because they got hit hard early...but have recovered quite nicely. The US got hit later...should have learned something from other countries...but is still out of control. Yes...those stats lie...today's stats is much more revealing.
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So what accounts for the low rates? Most things are still locked up here although the rates are a lot lower now.
We've had a consistent message from the Prime Minister right down to our mayor. We've had our head Dr. doing daily TV briefings. Nothing about the pandemic had been politicized.
So people have fallen into line with what has been preached to them every day by our medical and political people. I see a lot of social distancing, quite a few masks and washing stations at every place of business. We've had contact tracing in place with self isolation for all contacts. Recently there was an outbreak at a restaurant ( around 140 infections over 2 weeks ) which resulted in over 1,000 people contact traced and isolated for 2 weeks.
In short, there is a system in place to lower the rates and to control any outbreaks.
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And yet you go with the statistics. I don't know about you, but I am pretty embarrassed by the US being eighth worst.
With all the wealth, R&D money and advanced medical research...being 8 worst in the world is nothing to be proud of.
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So what accounts for the low rates (in Canada)? Most things are still locked up here although the rates are a lot lower now.
I think, Canadians comply more readily with the regulations and medical regulations. In this case, wearing the masks in the stores and other enclosed places, and also no mass gatherings. Now in the summer, I go a few times per week to a nearby uncrowded beach where nobody wears a mask, but there is plenty of space between the swimmers and people on the beach.
Since we can't carry guns, we have to think of other ways to fight the virus. Physical distancing is the most effective method.
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This kind of story is pretty common in the US news media:
No masks, no social distancing': 2 men charged after large pool party in N.J., police say
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/no-masks-no-social-distancing-2-men-charged-after-large-n1236507
Can you imagine paying $35 to catch COVID-19? It's the third party charging admission the NJ police have shut down this week.
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But they are both done with the first wave (roughly speaking) whereas the US is still on the up-ramp
Spain is 19 times smaller geographically. NY Metro area was hit first, It's been spreading to other areas since. We're still in the first wave.
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But what have they done lately. Sure Spain and Italy are bad because they got hit hard early...but have recovered quite nicely. The US got hit later...should have learned something from other countries...but is still out of control. Yes...those stats lie...today's stats is much more revealing.
My stats are today's stats. It's real-time.
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We've had a consistent message from the Prime Minister right down to our mayor. We've had our head Dr. doing daily TV briefings. Nothing about the pandemic had been politicized.
So people have fallen into line with what has been preached to them every day by our medical and political people. I see a lot of social distancing, quite a few masks and washing stations at every place of business. We've had contact tracing in place with self isolation for all contacts. Recently there was an outbreak at a restaurant ( around 140 infections over 2 weeks ) which resulted in over 1,000 people contact traced and isolated for 2 weeks.
In short, there is a system in place to lower the rates and to control any outbreaks.
They say we have contact tracing in the USA. But I don't believe it. How do you contact trace someone who asymptomatic and hasn't been tested?
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With all the wealth, R&D money and advanced medical research...being 8 worst in the world is nothing to be proud of.
One of the disadvantages of being a constitutional federal republic of 50 states I suppose. Each state is doing it differently. Freedom can be expensive.
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I think, Canadians comply more readily with the regulations and medical regulations. In this case, wearing the masks in the stores and other enclosed places, and also no mass gatherings. Now in the summer, I go a few times per week to a nearby uncrowded beach where nobody wears a mask, but there is plenty of space between the swimmers and people on the beach.
Since we can't carry guns, we have to think of other ways to fight the virus. Physical distancing is the most effective method.
It would be more interesting if you went to a beach where nobody wore anything. :)
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This kind of story is pretty common in the US news media:
No masks, no social distancing': 2 men charged after large pool party in N.J., police say
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/no-masks-no-social-distancing-2-men-charged-after-large-n1236507
Can you imagine paying $35 to catch COVID-19? It's the third party charging admission the NJ police have shut down this week.
I live in NJ. How come no one invited me to the party?
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My stats are today's stats. It's real-time.
No, you don't get it. How many new cases and deaths has Italy today...now compare that to the US. Now tell me which country is better under control?
Here is today's numbers as of now:
Italy new cases 476 deaths: 10
US new case: 46,059 deaths: 1,120
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They say we have contact tracing in the USA. But I don't believe it. How do you contact trace someone who asymptomatic and hasn't been tested?
You don’t.
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They say we have contact tracing in the USA. But I don't believe it. How do you contact trace someone who asymptomatic and hasn't been tested?
Even if you tried contact tracing the delay of getting tested and getting the result ( sometimes over 10 days) puts it at useless. So when you have a breakout...it is big because you have no idea who else has been infected so things just carry on.
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One of the disadvantages of being a constitutional federal republic of 50 states I suppose. Each state is doing it differently. Freedom can be expensive.
Canada has its own provinces and territories, each with their premiers and health systems...so it's not much different than the states. Big difference here is there is cooperation starting with out Prime Minister. We've had a conservative Premier ( like a governor ) praise the liberal Prime Minister ( like president ) on the job he was doing.
I don't see any praise given out by the republicans nor the democrats for their counter parties in the states. I just see back stabbing starting from your president.
And you wonder why things are different in the states. Just look no further than your leadership...or totally lack thereof.
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No, you don't get it. How many new cases and deaths has Italy today...now compare that to the US. Now tell me which country is better under control?
Here is today's numbers as of now:
Italy new cases 476 deaths: 10
US new case: 46,059 deaths: 1,120
I made the point somewheres, that the infection going through parts of the US are for the first time. It's just taken a couple of months to get there. I predicted here a month ago, that it will be done by the end of August at which point all of America will be like the northeast. Cases and deaths, but much lower numbers.
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Even if you tried contact tracing the delay of getting tested and getting the result ( sometimes over 10 days) puts it at useless. So when you have a breakout...it is big because you have no idea who else has been infected so things just carry on.
So we agree. So that raises the question. Why the big deal with testing. IF you can test so few, and there are so many running around with asymptomatic, why even talk about tracing? Is it just wishful thinking?
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moved to the other political thread.
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So we agree. So that raises the question. Why the big deal with testing. IF you can test so few, and there are so many running around with asymptomatic, why even talk about tracing? Is it just wishful thinking?
Yes if you are out of control...it might be just wasting time. Just do body counts...those are somewhat accurate...at least in the ballpark.
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Yes if you are out of control...it might be just wasting time. Just do body counts...those are somewhat accurate...at least in the ballpark.
We have low numbers here in New Jersey and have contract tracing. I'll have to check to see how effective it is. Knowing how things usually work here, I don't have much faith it's helping much.
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New Zealand has had its first cases in 100 days. They don't know where it came from but suspect that it came in a freight of frozen meat from the US. The question is now whether the virus can survive freezing and it looks like it can.
My thoughts are that if you can freeze an embryo and have it viable why can't you freeze a virus and have it survive.
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New Zealand has had its first cases in 100 days. They don't know where it came from but suspect that it came in a freight of frozen meat from the US. The question is now whether the virus can survive freezing and it looks like it can.
My thoughts are that if you can freeze an embryo and have it viable why can't you freeze a virus and have it survive.
What a pleasant thought. Just think. I might have some Covid 19 sitting frozen and dormant in my freezer in my Hagen Daz ice cream just waiting for me to take a lick. Reminds me of the movie The Thing where the out-of-space alien frozen in the Arctic gets defrosted and gobbles up all the people.
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Suspicion that the return of coronavirus to New Zealand is linked to imported frozen food packaging follows similar incidents reported in China this week. China temporarily blocked imports of Norwegian salmon after its sale in a Beijing market was linked to an outbreak in June.
The authorities in the eastern city of Yantai said on Tuesday that coronavirus had been detected on the packaging of imported frozen seafood from Ecuador. Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist of China’s Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, has said the virus can survive on the surface of frozen food for up to three months...
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-new-zealand-cases-linked-to-cold-storage-centre
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Suspicion that the return of coronavirus to New Zealand is linked to imported frozen food packaging follows similar incidents reported in China this week. China temporarily blocked imports of Norwegian salmon after its sale in a Beijing market was linked to an outbreak in June.
The authorities in the eastern city of Yantai said on Tuesday that coronavirus had been detected on the packaging of imported frozen seafood from Ecuador. Wu Zunyou, chief epidemiologist of China’s Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, has said the virus can survive on the surface of frozen food for up to three months...
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-new-zealand-cases-linked-to-cold-storage-centre
There is no way the US could do this. We've got no idea where the virus is coming from. It is just out there. Walking down the street you're just weaving and bobbing and praying it doesn't get you.
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Well now they're telling us not to go to the dentist something I need to do and have been doing. How do you bob and weave in a dentist's office?
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/going-to-the-dentist-experts-areas-low-covid19-transmission-144548393.html
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Well now they're telling us not to go to the dentist something I need to do and have been doing. How do you bob and weave in a dentist's office?
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/going-to-the-dentist-experts-areas-low-covid19-transmission-144548393.html
The WHO advises putting off routine preventative care. Are you driving to NYC and braving the elevators to have your teeth cleaned?
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There is no way the US could do this. We've got no idea where the virus is coming from. It is just out there. Walking down the street you're just weaving and bobbing and praying it doesn't get you.
The Times article referred to the ongoing situation in New Zealand, not the USA. Good guest piece in The Economist. Free to read, though you may need to register. Link title is self explanatory.
https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2020/08/10/nicholas-christakis-on-fighting-covid-19-by-truly-understanding-the-virus
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Well now they're telling us not to go to the dentist something I need to do and have been doing. How do you bob and weave in a dentist's office?
https://www.yahoo.com/lifestyle/going-to-the-dentist-experts-areas-low-covid19-transmission-144548393.html
By not going if it's just for routine work like cleaning.
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Intriguing report in the New York Times today (https://nyti.ms/30RGxs5) about how medical teams at the Fort Apache Amerindian reservation in Arizona are using contact tracing not simply to alert individuals who are at risk of infection, but also to discover others who are already infected but are unaware of it, and may require medical intervention to minimize the damage to their lungs.
The coronavirus is raging through the White Mountain Apache tribe. Spread across a large reservation in eastern Arizona, the Apaches have been infected at more than 10 times the rate of people in the state as a whole.
Yet their death rate from Covid-19 is far lower, just 1.3 percent, as compared with 2.1 percent in Arizona. Epidemiologists have a hopeful theory about what led to this startling result: Intensive contact tracing on the reservation likely enabled teams that included doctors to find and treat gravely ill people before it was too late to save them.
A crucial tool has been a simple, inexpensive medical device: an oximeter that, clipped to a finger, detected dangerously low blood oxygen levels in people who often didn’t even realize they were seriously ill. . . .
The coronavirus can impair the lungs in quiet, almost unnoticeable ways. People may not be gasping for breath, one of the classic signs of low oxygen levels, but the contact tracers often found their levels were perilously low. Without supplemental oxygen, these people risked permanent organ damage and death.
That led to a new strategy, Dr. Close said: “Contact tracing is a moderate end in itself, but the primary objective is to identify the high-risk individual” — those in grave danger from lack of oxygen. The team visits patients risking serious illness every day, and the moment their blood oxygen levels drop, they are taken to the hospital for oxygen therapy.
At the same time, the teams made another discovery. In the homes of coronavirus patients, the contact tracers noticed family members who did not look healthy. Often the signs were subtle, but the doctors, who know so many of the residents, recognized changes in complexion or energy levels.
The doctors asked family members who looked ill to take a brief walk around the room, or into the yard and back, with an oxygen monitor clipped to their fingers. Over and over, they saw the same thing — people who had oxygen levels so low they should be gasping for air. Yet they showed none of the expected symptoms.
The initial findings of the Fort Apache team have been reported in the New England Journal of Medicine (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2023540) (PDF) (https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMc2023540?articleTools=true).
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The Times article referred to the ongoing situation in New Zealand, not the USA. Good guest piece in The Economist. Free to read, though you may need to register. Link title is self explanatory.
https://www.economist.com/by-invitation/2020/08/10/nicholas-christakis-on-fighting-covid-19-by-truly-understanding-the-virus
Two takeaways from the article:
1. "Since we cannot rely on symptoms to identify cases, testing needs to be widespread and the results returned rapidly if not immediately."
Not one country is testing that much. In the US, we've tested about 60 million out of a population of 330 million. Most countries have a lower rate. Plus, if they tested you yesterday, and you didn't have it, that doesn;t mean you won;t get it tomorrow. How many times are they suppose to test each individual and ho often?
2. "For covid-19, at least 40% of the world’s 7.6bn people will probably become infected, with millions of deaths. "
The idea that somehow we'll skirt the infection by doing this or that is not in the cards. The article is interesting. But other than suggesting masks and the other recommendations we hear all the time, there's really not much hope things are going to change much unless there's an effective vaccine.
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By not going if it's just for routine work like cleaning.
The point is the danger is higher at a dentist regardless of the reason you go. So when I go to fix a cavity I have or install a crown I need, it's riskier than going to a heart specialist.
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Intriguing report in the New York Times today (https://nyti.ms/30RGxs5) about how medical teams at the Fort Apache Amerindian reservation in Arizona are using contact tracing not simply to alert individuals who are at risk of infection, but also to discover others who are already infected but are unaware of it, and may require medical intervention to minimize the damage to their lungs.
The initial findings of the Fort Apache team have been reported in the New England Journal of Medicine (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2023540) (PDF) (https://www.nejm.org/doi/pdf/10.1056/NEJMc2023540?articleTools=true).
Did the article mention the age group percentages in the reservation? If it's more youthful, that may account for low death rates even if though the overall infection rate is high.
I bought a O2 finger device a few months ago. You reminded me I ought to use it.
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The point is the danger is higher at a dentist regardless of the reason you go. So when I go to fix a cavity I have or install a crown I need, it's riskier than going to a heart specialist.
You are at risk just sitting at home and getting your food delivered to you. It's all about mitigating your risks. Only you can decide if getting your teeth fixed outweighs the risk of getting Covid.
I personally skipped my yearly cleaning back in July...can wait until Covid is under control. I've also skipped going out to restaurants as the risk / reward is to high for my likings.
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You are at risk just sitting at home and getting your food delivered to you. It's all about mitigating your risks. Only you can decide if getting your teeth fixed outweighs the risk of getting Covid.
I personally skipped my yearly cleaning back in July...can wait until Covid is under control. I've also skipped going out to restaurants as the risk / reward is to high for my likings.
I can't go out to restaurants until I get my teeth fixed. :)
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I can't go out to restaurants until I get my teeth fixed. :)
And yet you still order in pizza.
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The point is the danger is higher at a dentist regardless of the reason you go. So when I go to fix a cavity I have or install a crown I need, it's riskier than going to a heart specialist.
Probably depends on who the heart specialist has been hanging around with.
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Probably depends on who the heart specialist has been hanging around with.
My next "visit" in a week with my heart doctor will be on the phone. Seems kinda silly, doesn't it?
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My next "visit" in a week with my heart doctor will be on the phone. Seems kinda silly, doesn't it?
Did you get blood work done so you can discuss that? If not, he will probably advise you on your diet and exercise. Cardiologist are big on diet and exercise. I suspect he will tell you to lay off the steaks and lamb chops, and to get more exercise. Don't tell him about the Hagen Das in the freezer. Surely you know that sitting around the house isn't helpful to heart health. It is also a recipe for needing a psychiatrist, or so I've read. The real problem with cardiologists is that after a visit you feel like you have just been chastised by your mother for sneaking cookies out of the cookie jar. Of course, a psychiatrist is just the ticket to help you work that out.
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Did you get blood work done so you can discuss that? If not, he will probably advise you on your diet and exercise. Cardiologist are big on diet and exercise. I suspect he will tell you to lay off the steaks and lamb chops, and to get more exercise. Don't tell him about the Hagen Das in the freezer. Surely you know that sitting around the house isn't helpful to heart health. It is also a recipe for needing a psychiatrist, or so I've read. The real problem with cardiologists is that after a visit you feel like you have just been chastised by your mother for sneaking cookies out of the cookie jar. Of course, a psychiatrist is just the ticket to help you work that out.
My cardiologist doesn't care how much steak I eat as long as I don't eat carbs. Actually since the virus, I've laid off ice cream because I won't go the the shop to buy it. My weight's been static but not enough exercise. Does carrying my photo backpack and tripod count for anything? Posting on forums has eliminated boredom and allows me to direct my anger outwards. No shrink for me. :)
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My cardiologist doesn't care how much steak I eat as long as I don't eat carbs. Actually since the virus, I've laid off ice cream because I won't go the the shop to buy it. My weight's been static but not enough exercise. Does carrying my photo backpack and tripod count for anything? Posting on forums has eliminated boredom and allows me to direct my anger outwards. No shrink for me. :)
Sounds like you won't have anything to talk about then.
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My cardio office still performs ECG, Ultrasound and BP checks. All these procedures done by the assistant, so the doctor stays safe. ;D
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My next "visit" in a week with my heart doctor will be on the phone. Seems kinda silly, doesn't it?
Just put your phone up to your chest and let doc listen.
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My cardio office still performs ECG, Ultrasound and BP checks. All these procedures done by the assistant, so the doctor stays safe. ;D
My dentist's office hasn't returned my two calls to set up an appointment. I hope he's all right.
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Just put your phone up to your chest and let doc listen.
Well, I have a O2 monitor and blood pressure machine. So I could give him those measurements. Just no EKG.
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Well, I have a O2 monitor and blood pressure machine. So I could give him those measurements. Just no EKG.
The latest Apple Watch Series 5 provides a simplified ECG function. Not as accurate as the big ECG machines, but constant 24/7 monitoring.
The watch monitors constantly your heart beat and if it detects any irregularity, it sounds a heart fibrillation warning.
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Herd immunity may be reached with much lower levels of spread in a community, city or nation maybe even down to 43% or even to 10-20% from the 70% scientists originally suggested. Poorer and harder hit neighborhoods could do a lot better than richer neighborhoods that were isolated more. The NYC's, Italy's and Spain's that got hit hardest, would do the best. This new theory if true support's Sweden's methods who did it by political design. That also bodes well for a vaccine with let's say a 50% efficacy rate.
Pay now or pay later.
What if ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Closer Than Scientists Thought?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html
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Pay now or pay later.
I thought the idea was that you don’t pay later if you develop herd immunity or have a vaccine, or both. Isn’t that what you are doing, staying home until there is a vaccine so you won’t be a pay later casualty when you finally come out?
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Herd immunity may be reached with much lower levels of spread in a community, city or nation maybe even down to 43% or even to 10-20% from the 70% scientists originally suggested. Poorer and harder hit neighborhoods could do a lot better than richer neighborhoods that were isolated more. The NYC's, Italy's and Spain's that got hit hardest, would do the best. This new theory if true support's Sweden's methods who did it by political design. That also bodes well for a vaccine with let's say a 50% efficacy rate.
Pay now or pay later.
What if ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Closer Than Scientists Thought?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html
Be it 20% or 70%, the more affected regions in the 1st wave in Europre (say Spain, Italy) have achieved a very low immunity (on the order of 2%), so there is a long way to go in that regard.
On another note, Spain is back to 3,000 cases per day, France and UK over 1,000 cases. Even if the mortality rate is lower in this 2nd wave (affecting the younger population), that means a lot of people will still die... seems like people have short span memory and continue to disregard the necessary measures.
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My main concern is the long term immunity where the data is not that clear. If we are vulnerable to get it again 3-6 months later and/or with new minor mutations, we are truly screwed.
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I thought the idea was that you don’t pay later if you develop herd immunity or have a vaccine, or both. Isn’t that what you are doing, staying home until there is a vaccine so you won’t be a pay later casualty when you finally come out?
Yes, It's true if the vaccine works that many of us can evade getting sick. Frankly, it's what I'm hoping for. The pay now or pay later was referring to just herd immunity caused by the disease itself. Interestingly, the annual flu shots only reduce seasonal flu cases and death by 10-20%. I thought it was more effective. If that's going to be how effective Covid vaccine is, we're screwed.
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Herd immunity may be reached with much lower levels of spread in a community, city or nation maybe even down to 43% or even to 10-20% from the 70% scientists originally suggested. Poorer and harder hit neighborhoods could do a lot better than richer neighborhoods that were isolated more. The NYC's, Italy's and Spain's that got hit hardest, would do the best. This new theory if true support's Sweden's methods who did it by political design. That also bodes well for a vaccine with let's say a 50% efficacy rate.
This argument reminds me of thinking about buying a boat. I was down at the boat show and I saw this great boat that was marked down from $70,000 to $43,000. I was pretty excited. Then I talked to this guy who said that since it was last years model it would soon be marked down to $10,000-$20,000. The problem was I only had $2000 in savings, and I was waiting to see if my uncle was really going to die and leave me something.
None of that is true of course, but think about the price of the boat being the immunity percentage for herd immunity, my savings as the current percentage of immunity, and my hoped for inheritance the vaccine. I think heard immunity is going to be dependent on a very effective vaccine. It just doesn't look like it is in the cards that we are going to be able to die our way to herd immunity, not even in Sweden.
To be clear, I don't know anything about boats or epidemiology, so I may be wrong.
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Your guess as good as anyone else's including the experts. They aren't agreeing on anything either.
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Interestingly, the annual flu shots only reduce seasonal flu cases and death by 10-20%. I thought it was more effective. If that's going to be how effective Covid vaccine is, we're screwed.
Some years are better than others. I don't know where the 10-20% figure comes from. The 40% figure has been bandied about before here on LuLa. I thought it was even higher than that.
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Interestingly, the annual flu shots only reduce seasonal flu cases and death by 10-20%.
Would you please share your source for that assertion? The CDC estimate of effectiveness is much greater.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/vaccineeffect.htm (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/vaccineeffect.htm)
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Some years are better than others. I don't know where the 10-20% figure comes from. The 40% figure has been bandied about before here on LuLa. I thought it was even higher than that.
I'd have to find it again but that's what I recall from my computations a few months ago. The 40% is the effectiveness of the vaccine in some years. So I thought the results would be better too. But when I actually did the math on the total numbers, it came out to 10% and 20%. The difference between the 10/20% and the 40% could be accounted for because not everyone takes the vaccine. So the overall percentage of cases and deaths would be the lower number.
For example, I recall in one year there were 16 million cases. The CDC estimated the vaccine reduced it from 20 million estimated potential cases which means a 20% reduction. However, the vaccine was 40% effective. The death rate was even worse. I recall a 10% calculation overall although I don't recall the actual number. I've always assumed taking the vaccine was a big deal. The low protection really surprised me even though the numbers are distorted by those who never took the vaccine.
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Ok My memory is pretty solid. Here's the data I used.
The Benefits of Flu Vaccination 2018-2019 Infographic (Text Version)
Approximately 49 percent of the US population chose to get a flu vaccine during the 2018-2019 flu season, and this prevented an estimated:
4.4 million flu illnesses, more than the population Los Angles.
58,000 flu hospitalizations, about the number of students at Ohio State University.
3,500 flu deaths, equivalent to saving about 10 lives per day over the course of a year.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden-averted/2018-2019.htm
There were 21,000,000 actual cases and 34, 000 actual deaths
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
So do the math. That's a reduction of 21% in cases (4.4M/21M) and 10% in deaths (3.5K/34K).
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I didn't check your math. I'll just say that the CDC doesn't really know how many people were vaccinated, how many people with and without the vaccine got sick, and how many people with and without the vaccine died of the flu. You make me actually count the polar bears. So why do you and the CDC get to use made up data and an algorithm made up in your heads.
This is like we discussed before about digital scales. If you buy a $10 digital scale off eBay, and it has a read-out that goes to four places, it doesn't mean it is accurate out to four places.
That's why the CDC estimates 40-60% effectiveness. That's a pretty broad range because they know they are just guessing. It is an informed guess, but a guess nonetheless. I don't know why they didn't go with your calculation of 10-20%. You might want to email them about it.
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I didn't check your math. I'll just say that the CDC doesn't really know how many people were vaccinated, how many people with and without the vaccine got sick, and how many with and without the vaccine died of the flu. You make me actually count the polar bears. So why do you and the CDC get to use made up data and an algorithm made up in your heads.
That's why the CDC estimates a 40-60%. That's a pretty broad range because they know they are just guessing. It is an informed guess, but a guess nonetheless. I don't know why they didn't go with your calculation of 10-20%.
Could be that CDC did their calculations comparing the deaths to number of shots issued, whereas Alan applied it to the whole population of USA (vaccinated and not vaccinated).
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Could be that CDC did their calculations comparing the deaths to number of shots issued, whereas Alan applied it to the whole population of USA (vaccinated and not vaccinated).
Who knows why there is such a large discrepancy between Alan's calculation and the CDC's estimate.
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I'd have to find it again but that's what I recall from my computations a few months ago. The 40% is the effectiveness of the vaccine in some years. So I thought the results would be better too. But when I actually did the math on the total numbers, it came out to 10% and 20%. The difference between the 10/20% and the 40% could be accounted for because not everyone takes the vaccine. So the overall percentage of cases and deaths would be the lower number.
For example, I recall in one year there were 16 million cases. The CDC estimated the vaccine reduced it from 20 million estimated potential cases which means a 20% reduction. However, the vaccine was 40% effective. The death rate was even worse. I recall a 10% calculation overall although I don't recall the actual number. I've always assumed taking the vaccine was a big deal. The low protection really surprised me even though the numbers are distorted by those who never took the vaccine.
So, you're saying that the flu vaccine has a low rate of effectiveness if you don't get the vaccine. My estimate is the vaccine provides a 0% reduction in cases and deaths when you don't get the vaccine.
But if you do get vaccinated, it has a much higher effectiveness than "the annual flu shots only reduce seasonal flu cases and death by 10-20%" that you stated and would reduce it even further if more people were vaccinated.
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If someone doesn't like the CDC numbers I used, make up your own. I really don't care.
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If someone doesn't like the CDC numbers I used, make up your own. I really don't care.
Here are the percentages of effectiveness for the last decade. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/effectiveness-studies.htm (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/effectiveness-studies.htm)
I care about the flu due to personal experience. When I was 20 years old and very fit and healthy, I went to bed one night feeling fine. I woke up the next morning with an extremely high fever and unable to walk unaided. My parents helped me to the car and took me to our doctor who sent me straight to the hospital to be admitted. By noon, I was in bed with an IV and had an eager young surgeon suggesting that he take me into surgery for an abdominal exploratory. Thanks to a second opinion from a lovely old doc that said — "Well, it could just be a very sudden and severe case of the flu and he's already here in the hospital if surgery is needed. Why not just wait and see." — I avoided an unnecessary operation. I don't remember how long I was in the hospital, but it was at least a few days.
I always get my flu shot! Anything that will reduce the risk of having to go thru that again is fine with me!
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Probably, this season there will be fewer flu cases than in the previous years, due to the physical distancing, plexiglass barriers in the stores and offices, and more people wearing masks.
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Probably, this season there will be fewer flu cases than in the previous years, due to the physical distancing, plexiglass barriers in the stores and offices, and more people wearing masks.
I remember a few members on this forum were basically saying Covid is no different than the yearly flu. Those that said this...please raise your hands.
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Here are the percentages of effectiveness for the last decade. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/effectiveness-studies.htm (https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/effectiveness-studies.htm)
I care about the flu due to personal experience. When I was 20 years old and very fit and healthy, I went to bed one night feeling fine. I woke up the next morning with an extremely high fever and unable to walk unaided. My parents helped me to the car and took me to our doctor who sent me straight to the hospital to be admitted. By noon, I was in bed with an IV and had an eager young surgeon suggesting that he take me into surgery for an abdominal exploratory. Thanks to a second opinion from a lovely old doc that said — "Well, it could just be a very sudden and severe case of the flu and he's already here in the hospital if surgery is needed. Why not just wait and see." — I avoided an unnecessary operation. I don't remember how long I was in the hospital, but it was at least a few days.
I always get my flu shot! Anything that will reduce the risk of having to go thru that again is fine with me!
Glad you survived, Bill, Jim, er, just what is your name, nickname, ???
I just got an email from my pharmacy suggesting I get the regular flu shot in September. It's going to be interesting to see what happens with the regular flu this year. With all the masks, isolation, etc., the number should be dramatically lower. Has anyone seen any predictions?
https://www.walgreens.com/topic/pharmacy/seasonal-flu.jsp?ec=hncx1361527c_getflushot&%24web_only=true&~campaign=hncx1361527c_getflushot&mi_u=ANXpA9&%243p=e_cheetahmail&%24original_url=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.walgreens.com%2Ftopic%2Fpharmacy%2Fseasonal-flu.jsp%3Fec%3Dhncx1361527c_getflushot%26%24web_only%3Dtrue%26~campaign%3Dhncx1361527c_getflushot%26mi_u%3DANXpA9&_branch_match_id=800708905876252687
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Glad you survived, Bill, Jim, er, just what is your name, nickname, ???
I just got an email from my pharmacy suggesting I get the regular flu shot in September. It's going to be interesting to see what happens with the regular flu this year. With all the masks, isolation, etc., the number should be dramatically lower. Has anyone seen any predictions?
Are you planning on getting a flu shot this year?
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Are you planning on getting a flu shot this year?
I don't know. I once got a flu shot and I thought I got the flu a week later. So I haven't gotten any since then. But at 75, it might be a good idea. What are you going to do when they "approve" the Covid vaccine? Will you be first on line? Wait a while to see if the first group survives? Or never?
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I don't know. I once got a flu shot and I thought I got the flu a week later. So I haven't gotten any since then. But at 75, it might be a good idea.
You should re-analyze this.
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I don't know. I once got a flu shot and I thought I got the flu a week later. So I haven't gotten any since then. But at 75, it might be a good idea. What are you going to do when they "approve" the Covid vaccine? Will you be first on line? Wait a while to see if the first group survives? Or never?
I get the flu shot every year and can’t remember the last time I had the flu. Unless there is some contraindication at the time, I will get the COVID shot. You do know that they test it on something like 30,000 people during trials?
You are a science skeptic so I don’t expect you to get the shot right off the bat, but eventually you will want to resume a normal life. If it is any inducement, if you get the shot, the nurse will probably give you a lollipop.
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I get the flu shot every year and can’t remember the last time I had the flu. Unless there is some contraindication at the time, I will get the COVID shot. You do know that they test it on something like 30,000 people during trials?
You are a science skeptic so I don’t expect you to get the shot right off the bat, but eventually you will want to resume a normal life. If it is any inducement, if you get the shot, the nurse will probably give you a lollipop.
Just throwing in a general comment about science skepticism, something with which I have little patience or even respect. The fact is that the most important element in human culture that makes our lives as comfortable as they are is science. Not that long ago people died from tooth abscesses, many people lived with haemorrhoids the size of golfballs, phones and cars were not that reliable, and lots of babies and mothers died in childbirth. I won't bother mentioning all the diseases that we now treat that used to be fatal. To turn one's back on the very processes that led us here is a spectacular failure of imagination, to put it mildly. The comments I occasionally read in these forums about scientists being in cahoots about things, especially when the opposition to those ideas are so obviously ego and politically based, are embarrassing to read. Just interweb noise. It used to be the case that drunk bar talk by know-it-alls remained just that, but now it gets aired in public for all to see. I'm sick of it.
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I get the flu shot every year and can’t remember the last time I had the flu. Unless there is some contraindication at the time, I will get the COVID shot. You do know that they test it on something like 30,000 people during trials?
You are a science skeptic so I don’t expect you to get the shot right off the bat, but eventually you will want to resume a normal life. If it is any inducement, if you get the shot, the nurse will probably give you a lollipop.
What flavor?
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Just throwing in a general comment about science skepticism, something with which I have little patience or even respect. The fact is that the most important element in human culture that makes our lives as comfortable as they are is science. Not that long ago people died from tooth abscesses, many people lived with haemorrhoids the size of golfballs, phones and cars were not that reliable, and lots of babies and mothers died in childbirth. I won't bother mentioning all the diseases that we now treat that used to be fatal. To turn one's back on the very processes that led us here is a spectacular failure of imagination, to put it mildly. The comments I occasionally read in these forums about scientists being in cahoots about things, especially when the opposition to those ideas are so obviously ego and politically based, are embarrassing to read. Just interweb noise. It used to be the case that drunk bar talk by know-it-alls remained just that, but now it gets aired in public for all to see. I'm sick of it.
I'm an engineer and I love the subject of science. But science constantly develops and changes. Facts and details that were not known become and known and theories change. Taking everything at face value,can be short sighted.
Here is an article that gives a current update of all the various issues with Covid 19. As you read through it, you'll see that experts have changed their minds on most issues. They still don't have all the facts. Their recommendations are offered with doubts. They hedge their bets. For example, they say that covid spreading by envelopes and touching surfaces probably doesn't happen. But the experts recommend that people continue to disinfect surfaces and be careful. What kind of a recommendation is that? What does the average layman suppose to think when he gets advice that sounds like it's coming from a politician?
https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/17/what-we-now-know-about-covid19-and-what-questions-remain-to-be-answered/
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I'm an engineer and I love the subject of science. But science constantly develops and changes. Facts and details that were not known become and known and theories change. Taking everything at face value,can be short sighted.
Here is an article that gives a current update of all the various issues with Covid 19. As you read through it, you'll see that experts have changed their minds on most issues. They still don't have all the facts. Their recommendations are offered with doubts. They hedge their bets. For example, they say that covid spreading by envelopes and touching surfaces probably doesn't happen. But the experts recommend that people continue to disinfect surfaces and be careful. What kind of a recommendation is that? What does the average layman suppose to think when he gets advice that sounds like it's coming from a politician?
https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/17/what-we-now-know-about-covid19-and-what-questions-remain-to-be-answered/
You seem to have a real problem dealing with uncertainty. About COVID on envelopes, what don't you understand about the concept of "out of an abundance of caution"? What are you doing now about the envelopes you receive in the mail? You can't just let them sit there until the scientists are unanimous about what to do with them. For God's sake man, you may have won the Publishers' Clearing House Sweepstakes.
If you are really interested in uncertainty, read Descartes Meditations. He offers some advice you may want to incorporate in your life. You should be able to find a good English translation free on the internet.
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So now, both Russia and China announced their C19 vaccines. The American vaccine can't be too far behind.
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/china-confirms-its-first-covid-19-vaccine-patent/1944015
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You seem to have a real problem dealing with uncertainty. About COVID on envelopes, what don't you understand about the concept of "out of an abundance of caution"? What are you doing now about the envelopes you receive in the mail? You can't just let them sit there until the scientists are unanimous about what to do with them. For God's sake man, you may have won the Publishers' Clearing House Sweepstakes.
If you are really interested in uncertainty, read Descartes Meditations. He offers some advice you may want to incorporate in your life. You should be able to find a good English translation free on the internet.
I check to see if I've won anything when the mail first comes in. These I spritz with 91% isopropyl alcohol and immediately open. The bills sit on the shelf for three days before opening.
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I check to see if I've won anything when the mail first comes in. These I spritz with 91% isopropyl alcohol and immediately open. The bills sit on the shelf for three days before opening.
Heating up the envelopes in a microwave or an oven should kill most of the germs. Or if you own a Sony camera, place it on the envelope and start recording some video.
https://cleaning.lovetoknow.com/how-kill-household-germs/do-microwaves-kill-germs-like-viruses-bacteria
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Heating up the envelopes in a microwave or an oven should kill most of the germs. Or if you own a Sony camera, place it on the envelope and start recording some video.
https://cleaning.lovetoknow.com/how-kill-household-germs/do-microwaves-kill-germs-like-viruses-bacteria
A friend of my wife sent her a birthday card recently. The husband nuked the card before delivering it. When my wife opened it, there were scorch marks all over the card from where there had been some foil decoration. Sort of like in a detective show when the inspector pulls a letter out of the suspect's fireplace and solves the crime. I am glad there wasn't a $20 bill in it. They have that metallic security stuff on them.
I just get junk mail. I throw it in the recycle bin on my way back from the mailbox, and then wash my hands.
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So now, both Russia and China announced their C19 vaccines. The American vaccine can't be too far behind.
https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/china-confirms-its-first-covid-19-vaccine-patent/1944015
I hope the Chinese vaccine is not anything like their tests kits. I read they weren't that hot.
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A friend of my wife sent her a birthday card recently. The husband nuked the card before delivering it. When my wife opened it, there were scorch marks all over the card from where there had been some foil decoration. Sort of like in a detective show when the inspector pulls a letter out of the suspect's fireplace and solves the crime. I am glad there wasn't a $20 bill in it. They have that metallic security stuff on them.
I just get junk mail. I throw it in the recycle bin on my way back from the mailbox, and then wash my hands.
For those who don't think I listen to experts, this is how I do the mail. Junk mail gets dumped immediately. Then I rotate the mail for three days through three folders until the three days are up and I can handle them. The folders are labelled: Day One, Day Two, Day Three. Anything that appears really important, I'll spritz with alcohol and open immediately. Usually the alcohol melts some of the print inside. Unfortunately I can still read the bills. I really wish the experts would get their acts together and decide whether I need to be so anal.
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I hope the Chinese vaccine is not anything like their tests kits. I read they weren't that hot.
90% of our medicine comes from China and India. I feel so safe. Every morning when I take my pills, I say a little prayer.
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. . . experts have changed their minds on most issues. They still don't have all the facts. Their recommendations are offered with doubts. They hedge their bets. For example, they say that covid spreading by envelopes and touching surfaces probably doesn't happen. But the experts recommend that people continue to disinfect surfaces and be careful. What kind of a recommendation is that?
It's a well-considered recommendation, based on what is currently known about the virus, which represents an expert consensus.
The consensus is that fomite transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is indeed possible:
Respiratory secretions or droplets expelled by infected individuals can contaminate surfaces and objects, creating fomites (contaminated surfaces). Viable SARS-CoV-2 virus and/or RNA detected by RT-PCR can be found on those surfaces for periods ranging from hours to days, depending on the ambient environment (including temperature and humidity) and the type of surface, in particular at high concentration in health care facilities where COVID-19 patients were being treated. . . . Therefore, transmission may also occur indirectly through touching surfaces in the immediate environment or objects contaminated with virus from an infected person (e.g. stethoscope or thermometer), followed by touching the mouth, nose, or eyes.
Despite consistent evidence as to SARS-CoV-2 contamination of surfaces and the survival of the virus on certain surfaces, there are no specific reports which have directly demonstrated fomite transmission. People who come into contact with potentially infectious surfaces often also have close contact with the infectious person, making the distinction between respiratory droplet and fomite transmission difficult to discern. However, fomite transmission is considered a likely mode of transmission for SARS-CoV-2, given consistent findings about environmental contamination in the vicinity of infected cases and the fact that other coronaviruses and respiratory viruses can transmit this way.
―Transmission of SARS-CoV-2: implications for infection prevention precautions (https://www.who.int/news-room/commentaries/detail/transmission-of-sars-cov-2-implications-for-infection-prevention-precautions). (Scientific brief, World Health Organization, July 9, 2020, citations omitted.)
While the current evidence suggests that most infections whose source can be determined have resulted from direct, often prolonged, person-to-person interaction via droplets and aerosols, it obviously isn't easy to contact-trace a surface and identify it as the source of a particular infection. And, as the W.H.O. brief points out, people who came into contact with a surface which might have transmitted the virus to them also tend to have been in contact with the infected individuals who contaminated the surface.
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It's a well-considered recommendation, based on what is currently known about the virus, which represents an expert consensus.
The consensus is that fomite transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is indeed possible:
While the current evidence suggests that most infections whose source can be determined have resulted from direct, often prolonged, person-to-person interaction via droplets and aerosols, it obviously isn't easy to contact-trace a surface and identify it as the source of a particular infection. And, as the W.H.O. brief points out, people who came into contact with a surface which might have transmitted the virus to them also tend to have been in contact with the infected individuals who contaminated the surface.
But that's where the question comes in with mail. You're not in contact with either the people who sent it or the mailman who delivered it. So most experts have said that you can't get it from mail (or maybe you can.?) Ditto with packages delivered from FedEx or supermarket delivery of groceries. However, we disinfect everything or wait three days to handle. But most people have stopped doing that because the consensus is you can't get it from touching mail or packages. The problem is it's a "Consensus".
The article I was making this point from above, said the following. What is the average layman suppose to make of it? "The general consensus now is that “fomites” — germs on surfaces — aren’t the major transmission route for Covid-19. Van Kerkhove of WHO said there hasn’t been a case recorded where it’s clear someone was infected by fomites alone."
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The article I was making this point from above, said the following. What is the average layman suppose to make of it? "The general consensus now is that “fomites” — germs on surfaces — aren’t the major transmission route for Covid-19. Van Kerkhove of WHO said there hasn’t been a case recorded where it’s clear someone was infected by fomites alone."
You quoted a reputable publication and the article appears to be well-researched. But the average layman (and even the below- or above-average layman) would be well-advised to read the entire section on fomites before jumping to conclusions. That includes:
The general consensus now is that “fomites” — germs on surfaces — aren’t the major transmission route for Covid-19. Van Kerkhove of WHO said there hasn’t been a case recorded where it’s clear someone was infected by fomites alone.
(In the real world, someone in close enough contact with an infected person to become infected will likely have encountered viruses on surfaces and virus-laced droplets and maybe even small, aerosol-sized particles containing the virus that have been expelled by coughing, singing, or speaking. Teasing out of that situation which route of transmission triggered infection may be impossible to do.)
But it’s clear from lots of studies that surfaces around infected people can be contaminated with viruses and the viruses can linger. Cleaning surfaces and being prudent about hand hygiene is a risk-lowering step people can take, public health officials agree.
(Emphasis supplied.)
As I believe others in this thread have noted before, absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
If you're not an expert yourself, with the credentials and experience to evaluate the research―which, as an expert, you surely have personally reviewed and discussed with fellow experts―the rational thing for an average layman is to try to understand what the experts are recommending and to follow their advice.
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But most people have stopped doing that because the consensus is you can't get it from touching mail or packages.
Would it be too much to ask for a link to something supporting this conclusion?
My own opinion, completely unsupported by any evidence, is that a lot of people never did it in the first place, or if they did, they quit after a while because it was too big a hassle. My further opinion, also unsupported by any evidence, is that most people are not checking the WHO website every day to see if there are any changes to their guidance on handling the mail, and then comparing it to the guidance from the CDC and other experts, to determine if there is a developing consensus on what to do with tomorrow's mail. I suspect most people go to sleep dead tired at night having left things undone, and don't have time to keep up with this stuff. I am not endorsing that, just expressing my opinion about what is going on in the real world.
As a side note, why do you believe any of this stuff about germs on surface transmission? Have you vetted all the scientists? They could be radical left wing climate change scientists moonlighting at the COVID related grant gravy train.
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But that's where the question comes in with mail. You're not in contact with either the people who sent it or the mailman who delivered it. So most experts have said that you can't get it from mail (or maybe you can.?) Ditto with packages delivered from FedEx or supermarket delivery of groceries. However, we disinfect everything or wait three days to handle. But most people have stopped doing that because the consensus is you can't get it from touching mail or packages. The problem is it's a "Consensus".
The article I was making this point from above, said the following. What is the average layman suppose to make of it? "The general consensus now is that “fomites” — germs on surfaces — aren’t the major transmission route for Covid-19. Van Kerkhove of WHO said there hasn’t been a case recorded where it’s clear someone was infected by fomites alone."
Indeed, most people are either confused or they ignore all the medical advice.
It's unbelievable that we have over 22 million cases and almost 800,000 deaths worldwide, and the people in charge are not able to use and interpret this data to come up with some solid conclusions.
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But that's where the question comes in with mail. You're not in contact with either the people who sent it or the mailman who delivered it. So most experts have said that you can't get it from mail (or maybe you can.?) Ditto with packages delivered from FedEx or supermarket delivery of groceries. However, we disinfect everything or wait three days to handle. But most people have stopped doing that because the consensus is you can't get it from touching mail or packages. The problem is it's a "Consensus".
The article I was making this point from above, said the following. What is the average layman suppose to make of it? "The general consensus now is that “fomites” — germs on surfaces — aren’t the major transmission route for Covid-19. Van Kerkhove of WHO said there hasn’t been a case recorded where it’s clear someone was infected by fomites alone."
WASH YOUR HANDS after contact and before you touch your eyes, mouth, or nose. So handle the mail/packages, open it, dispose of it, and wash your hands before doing anything else.
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90% of our medicine comes from China and India. I feel so safe. Every morning when I take my pills, I say a little prayer.
Good thing as you would not afford them if they came from the USA.
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Good thing as you would not afford them if they came from the USA.
Who can afford their medicine as it is? I got this printout from my pharmacy at the end of the year so I could tally up my medical expenses for tax purposes, and it showed the retail price along with what insurance paid and what I paid. Wow! And that was just for me. My wife's were higher.
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Indeed, most people are either confused or they ignore all the medical advice.
It's unbelievable that we have over 22 million cases and almost 800,000 deaths worldwide, and the people in charge are not able to use and interpret this data to come up with some solid conclusions.
As Madam Speaker says, People are gonna do what people do.
No amounts of governmental Edicts will change some people’s behavior. At least here.
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Who can afford their medicine as it is? I got this printout from my pharmacy at the end of the year so I could tally up my medical expenses for tax purposes, and it showed the retail price along with what insurance paid and what I paid. Wow! And that was just for me. My wife's were higher.
I'm on my wife's medical plan. We both have a $100 deductible after which all drugs are paid for. My wife has Parkinson's and her drugs would be about $400 a month. I don't even break my $100 deductible.
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As Madam Speaker says, People are gonna do what people do.
No amounts of governmental Edicts will change some people’s behavior. At least here.
Well when you have your leaders go against the medical community...I can see why people just give up and say screw it...I'll just party. When you have a consistent message throughout all levels of government and the medical community...that message goes a long way.
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I check to see if I've won anything when the mail first comes in. These I spritz with 91% isopropyl alcohol and immediately open. The bills sit on the shelf for three days before opening.
I take no special care with the mail. Transfer of virus from paper products is not anything I worry about. I also don't take any precautions with groceries either.
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I hope the Chinese vaccine is not anything like their tests kits. I read they weren't that hot.
Not true, some had very good specificity and sensitivity.
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You think sleepy joe is all truth and light?
Did you read that this thread is supposed to be free of politics? Clean it up!
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I take no special care with the mail. Transfer of virus from paper products is not anything I worry about. I also don't take any precautions with groceries either.
When I go get groceries I wear a mask, sanitize my hands at the entrance, use a sanatized cart, sanatize my hands on the way out, wash my hands when I get home, put away the groceries and wash my hands once again when done.
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Did you read that this thread is supposed to be free of politics? Clean it up!
A little selective with your admonishments....
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You quoted a reputable publication and the article appears to be well-researched. But the average layman (and even the below- or above-average layman) would be well-advised to read the entire section on fomites before jumping to conclusions. That includes:
As I believe others in this thread have noted before, absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.
If you're not an expert yourself, with the credentials and experience to evaluate the research―which, as an expert, you surely have personally reviewed and discussed with fellow experts―the rational thing for an average layman is to try to understand what the experts are recommending and to follow their advice.
I've said I'm convinced that surfaces can transmit the virus and we disinfect everything. My point is the wavering and lack of clarity by experts does not produce confidence in many laypeople. It's confusing to them. The experts leave a lot open to interpretation. You can't expect most people to be as meticulous as we are here in the forums about these things.
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Indeed, most people are either confused or they ignore all the medical advice.
It's unbelievable that we have over 22 million cases and almost 800,000 deaths worldwide, and the people in charge are not able to use and interpret this data to come up with some solid conclusions.
Thanks for your support. The confusion is across the board. They just opened gyms in New York. Then the decided it was a bad idea and shut them down again. Schools? Does anyone know what to do? One day they say let's do this. The next day it's something else. Sports? Same thing. Why should the public believe with confidence anything they hear from experts, the government or anyone else? Everyone's winging it. By the way. I don;t blame the experts or government. This is all new WE really don't know what to do. New Zealand just shut down the country because 3 or 4 people in a family got sick. Seems medically sound. But the whole country? How are people going to eat if they're not producing?
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WASH YOUR HANDS after contact and before you touch your eyes, mouth, or nose. So handle the mail/packages, open it, dispose of it, and wash your hands before doing anything else.
How do you dispose of it? Once you handle it you move potential virus from the mail to your hand to the pen you touched to write the check to pay the bill, to the check, etc. Originally I would disinfect the mail with alcohol. But my wife complained she couldn't read the inside because the alcohol ran all the print. So I moved to the three day wait method. I doubt if one person in ten does what I do. Some of my friends, also seniors like me, are already eating out in restaurants. They swear they sit 6 feet away from others and the waitresses look pretty healthy. Who am I to argue. :)
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I'm on my wife's medical plan. We both have a $100 deductible after which all drugs are paid for. My wife has Parkinson's and her drugs would be about $400 a month. I don't even break my $100 deductible.
I'm sorry your wife has Parkinson's. At least you have a good medical plan.
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Well when you have your leaders go against the medical community...I can see why people just give up and say screw it...I'll just party. When you have a consistent message throughout all levels of government and the medical community...that message goes a long way.
I watched a documentary on TV about the Spanish Flu epidemic of the early 1900's in the USA. They fined people for not wearing a mask. One cop shot someone who refused to put it on. Even with tough enforcement, people then too were very independent.
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Bull. You think the hordes of youngsters partying hardy On campus would listen to a thing Trump had to say?
Now we know what you did in college. :)
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Trump has lost anything he says as being taken seriously long time ago. Once a liar...always a liar and the general population can see this. Maybe the new president will have a better go at it.
We're broke no matter who's in charge. It won't matter.
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A better description would be very decent and empathetic.
Especially when Biden gets close to women and sniffs their hair. A real gentleman.
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I take no special care with the mail. Transfer of virus from paper products is not anything I worry about. I also don't take any precautions with groceries either.
Chris is going to be upset with you. :)
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I read an account of a building in S Korea where on a particular floor, there were two groups of people working in open plan areas. Someone in one group got CV19 and then a large number of people in that group got it. Nobody in the other group got it, even though they were using the same elevators etc, pressing buttons, touching stuff. Only one (half remembered) anecdote, but it suggests that being in a confined space with someone is more dangerous than touching stuff they touched.
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I read an account of a building in S Korea where on a particular floor, there were two groups of people working in open plan areas. Someone in one group got CV19 and then a large number of people in that group got it. Nobody in the other group got it, even though they were using the same elevators etc, pressing buttons, touching stuff. Only one (half remembered) anecdote, but it suggests that being in a confined space with someone is more dangerous than touching stuff they touched.
For months, the lead Portuguese virologist has passed along the message:
Avoid 3 C's and wear a mask.
3 C's: close contact, confined spaces, crowded spaces.
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New Zealand just shut down the country because 3 or 4 people in a family got sick. Seems medically sound. But the whole country? How are people going to eat if they're not producing?
They did ok up till now, so why would this re-occurrence be any worse. You've been predicting the end of civilization for a while now but it's not happening, is it? People do what they always do, they adapt.
As for the different school re-opening plans, until best practices emerge, people try different things. I don't understand why you choose to interpret this as experts trying to confuse you. It is nothing of the kind. Besides, after repeating that point of view 1000 times, it's time to move on to something new I'd say.
Your constant refrain about experts confusing you doesn't hold water. They've been consistent from day one, maintain distance, wash/disinfect, and more recently wear masks when forced to be closer to others. All the other speculations about this and that were just that, part of of the ongoing conversation, not policy, not confusing instructions. Your best bet is not to read those, they seem to alarm you unnecessarily.
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They did ok up till now, so why would this re-occurrence be any worse. You've been predicting the end of civilization for a while now but it's not happening, is it? People do what they always do, they adapt.
As for the different school re-opening plans, until best practices emerge, people try different things. I don't understand why you choose to interpret this as experts trying to confuse you. It is nothing of the kind. Besides, after repeating that point of view 1000 times, it's time to move on to something new I'd say.
Your constant refrain about experts confusing you doesn't hold water. They've been consistent from day one, maintain distance, wash/disinfect, and more recently wear masks when forced to be closer to others. All the other speculations about this and that were just that, part of of the ongoing conversation, not policy, not confusing instructions. Your best bet is not to read those, they seem to alarm you unnecessarily.
Apparently, even though I've said things 1000 times, you don't accurately remember what I said. I've been the one preaching that it's great that every country and every American state is doing it differently. That not having a single policy is best as we'll see who's is best. There. Now I've said it 1001 times. Maybe now you're remember what I actually said.
Secondly, while experts are generally consistent about what health measures protect most, they are not in consensus as to what process and speed should be taken to open up the economy, business, transportation, schools,sports, etc. We're all poking around in the the dark when it comes to that.
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New Zealand just shut down the country because 3 or 4 people in a family got sick.
They didn't though, did they.
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Secondly, while experts are generally consistent about what health measures protect most, they are not in consensus as to what process and speed should be taken to open up the economy, business, transportation, schools,sports, etc. We're all poking around in the the dark when it comes to that.
But doesn't that confuse the average layman about what to think and what actions to take? The mayor says wear a mask and the governor says don't wear a mask. You said that people are confused about what to do with the mail, wouldn't they be confused about whether or not to wear a mask? And then when the Republicans say that wearing a mask is making a political statement for Biden and against Trump, things get even more confusing. If everybody trying something different is good for masks, maybe we should tell people they should try different things with the mail and see what works out best. And hand washing, and closed spaces, and close contact, and all the rest. Probably best to go random on it. Don't give people advice. Just give them a list of a dozen different alternatives and let them pick the one they want. Then, when it is all over, we count up the dead and see who wins.
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But doesn't that confuse the average layman about what to think and what actions to take? The mayor says wear a mask and the governor says don't wear a mask.
Well that's chump change - more important, the president says drink bleach, the CDC says don't drink bleach. That sort of confusion costs lives!
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2020/aug/19/facebook-funnelling-readers-towards-covid-misinformation-study
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But doesn't that confuse the average layman about what to think and what actions to take? The mayor says wear a mask and the governor says don't wear a mask. You said that people are confused about what to do with the mail, wouldn't they be confused about whether or not to wear a mask? And then when the Republicans say that wearing a mask is making a political statement against for Biden and against Trump, things get even more confusing.
We're trying to balance two opposing issues. The medical recommendations are sound for the most part. They will keep, us healthier and reduce deaths. However, the procedures of isolation and maintaining distances (not masks necessarily) are in conflict with maintaining a vibrant and healthy economy. We're stuck between a rock and a hard place. Trying to thread the needle and find a proper balance is creating huge problems as we fumble around in the dark. It's not an either or situation although many people try to make it one. There are no easy solutions.
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We're trying to balance two opposing issues. The medical recommendations are sound for the most part. They will keep, us healthier and reduce deaths.
Which "medical recommendations" do you think are sound for the most part? Which are not sound? Which are still up in the air?
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I just bought a couple of cotton face masks that have internal slots for filters. Which filter types are the best?
Mask https://www.walmart.com/ip/Reusable-Washable-Cotton-Black-Face-Mask-with-Filter-Pocket-and-Nose-Wire/998104044?comm-msg-vehicle=EMAIL&comm-msg-id=8a6b9df5-f54c-406d-8d4d-c056c068acda
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Which "medical recommendations" do you think are sound for the most part? Which are not sound? Which are still up in the air?
You're wasting our time with a strawman argument. Your question has nothing to do with my post. Please address my point if you wish.
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I just bought a couple of cotton face masks that have internal slots for filters. Which filter types are the best?
Mask https://www.walmart.com/ip/Reusable-Washable-Cotton-Black-Face-Mask-with-Filter-Pocket-and-Nose-Wire/998104044?comm-msg-vehicle=EMAIL&comm-msg-id=8a6b9df5-f54c-406d-8d4d-c056c068acda
Views on which filter is the best differ. Just pick one and become part of life's great experiment.
By the way, I don't think Trump is really sold on masks anyway, so could just not wear a mask. If you don't wear a mask, you don't really need to worry about filters.
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Views on which filter is the best differ. Just pick one and become part of life's great experiment.
By the way, I don't think Trump is really sold on masks anyway, so could just not wear a mask. If you don't wear a mask, you don't really need to worry about filters.
Although I've repeated it 1000 times, I've been wearing masks since this thing started. In fact, I bought KN-95 masks direct from China and paid extra for them including expedited shipping. I bought surgical masks directly from them as well.
I've decided to try a cotton mask as they appear to have improved the design and "experts" claim they're almost as good. Maybe someone else can recommend a type of filter that's best.
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I've decided to try a cotton mask as they appear to have improved the design and "experts" claim they're almost as good. Maybe someone else can recommend a type of filter that's best.
Experts? Almost as good? Perhaps you might want to rethink this.
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Frank, your snide comments are really annoying. If you don't have an answer to my question about filters, why don't you just let others answer?
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Frank, your snide comments are really annoying. If you don't have an answer to my question about filters, why don't you just let others answer?
Not really. You have been very informed and conscientious about staying safe. I am just surprised that you are now thinking about dropping your guard and going with something that is "almost as good." It is out of character. Sets up cognitive dissonance.
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We're stuck between a rock and a hard place. Trying to thread the needle and find a proper balance is creating huge problems as we fumble around in the dark. It's not an either or situation although many people try to make it one. There are no easy solutions.
You certainly upped the ante and went over the top when you pulled the trigger on this post.
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I just bought a couple of cotton face masks that have internal slots for filters. Which filter types are the best?
Mask https://www.walmart.com/ip/Reusable-Washable-Cotton-Black-Face-Mask-with-Filter-Pocket-and-Nose-Wire/998104044?comm-msg-vehicle=EMAIL&comm-msg-id=8a6b9df5-f54c-406d-8d4d-c056c068acda
I bought these mask filters through Walmart. Thanks.
https://www.walmart.com/ip/Ship-from-Chicago-USA-10-Pack-of-5-Layers-PM2-5-Activated-Carbon-Filter/859902461
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You certainly upped the ante and went over the top when you pulled the trigger on this post.
Yeah. I did unload a bit. Sorry. :)
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Not really. You have been very informed and conscientious about staying safe. I am just surprised that you are now thinking about dropping your guard and going with something that is "almost as good." It is out of character. Sets up cognitive dissonance.
Sorry Frank. I shouldn't have unloaded on you.
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They didn't though, did they.
Sorry Jeremy I was so tough on you before.
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I take no special care with the mail. Transfer of virus from paper products is not anything I worry about. I also don't take any precautions with groceries either.
Sensible chap. I can barely believe the hysteria I see represented on this thread.
Jeremy
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I have deleted a number of overtly political posts in this thread and banned those who posted them (and what I take to be the alter ego of one of the posters) for a week.
With luck, they'll have developed some self-control by the time they return; but luck seems in short supply at present.
Jeremy
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Sorry Jeremy I was so tough on you before.
No problem :-)
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Sensible chap. I can barely believe the hysteria I see represented on this thread.
Jeremy
On the other hand, Alan G is the only chap who's changed his avatar to show himself with a mask. 8)
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Maybe acid from heartburn is killing virus spread, not the anti-acid medicine itself. Those medicines that work poorly against heartburn actually are better for those with Covid. My dentists gave me some awful tasting and burning liquid to rinse with before they started work on me. Prof. Trump Elixir might be better.
Coronavirus outcomes improved by heartburn drug famotidine, according to study
"Famotidine was associated with lower risk of mortality in COVID-19 patients"
https://www.foxnews.com/health/coronavirus-improved-heartburn-drug-famotidine.amp
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A little selective with your admonishments....
Not really, you are just the most recent one that I have called out.
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I can barely believe the hysteria I see represented on this thread.
Jeremy
What do you consider hysterical?
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Don't know if this has been posted before:
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/immune-cells-common-cold-may-recognize-sars-cov-2
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Don't know if this has been posted before:
https://www.nih.gov/news-events/nih-research-matters/immune-cells-common-cold-may-recognize-sars-cov-2
There are a variety of papers that I've seen disproving this.
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There are a variety of papers that I've seen disproving this.
Apparently the experts are disagreeing again.
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Apparently the experts are disagreeing again.
Hardly surprising when dealing with Science...
On the Portuguese side of things, we are now out of the UK black list, so Brits can come here without having to submit to a quarantine on the way back. We are told this is important to our economy, which of course is true. It took 2 months to lower the key indicator (new cases per 100,000) to acceptable levels.
I wonder how many will travel now to the Algarve, because discos and bars are still closed:) The Spaniards opened them, just to close them down again a few weeks afterwards...
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Apparently the experts are disagreeing again.
Please knock it off. Everyone seems to understand how acquiring new knowledge works except you.
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Hardly surprising when dealing with Science...
On the Portuguese side of things, we are now out of the UK black list, so Brits can come here without having to submit to a quarantine on the way back. We are told this is important to our economy, which of course is true. It took 2 months to lower the key indicator (new cases per 100,000) to acceptable levels.
I wonder how many will travel now to the Algarve, because discos and bars are still closed:) The Spaniards opened them, just to close them down again a few weeks afterwards...
I hope things open for you. I know how important tourism is for Portugal.
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Please knock it off. Everyone seems to understand how acquiring new knowledge works except you.
Please make up your mind. When I complained that it's hard for the average person to know what is the right to do, I'm accused of not trusting science or experts. Now you make excuses for science and experts not having all the answers making the same point I had been making.
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Please make up your mind. When I complained that it's hard for the average person to know what is the right to do, I'm accused of not trusting science or experts. Now you make excuses for science and experts not having all the answers making the same point I had been making.
You are being deliberately obtuse and argumentative. The articles we are referring to in this exchange were not about "experts" telling you anything nor recommending policy. They were not telling you to do or not do anything nor were they recommending anything to your political authorities. You chose to look at some research, probably in its early stages, that did NOT MAKE ANY RECOMMENDATIONS to you or anyone. Researchers do what they are always do, report findings that others can replicate or not. Characterizing this as another example of "experts" disagreeing is asinine. It means you don't understand what is going on. This has been told to you before numerous times. You are deliberately looking for ways to score irrelevant points.
Your original post was a troll and you complaining about me not making up my mind was another troll. This situation has arisen several times on these pages. You find some obscure piece of uncorroborated reported findings and then complain that the researchers don't know what they're doing. If you are not able to properly comprehend the content of these articles, you have no place making comments on their validity. My advice is to stop reading them and do what your medical authorities tell you to do, which has been quite consistent since the beginning, despite your repeated whining to the contrary.
If you don't believe experts, why are you on this thread.
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You are being deliberately obtuse and argumentative. The articles we are referring to in this exchange were not about "experts" telling you anything nor recommending policy. They were not telling you to do or not do anything nor were they recommending anything to your political authorities. You chose to look at some research, probably in its early stages, that did NOT MAKE ANY RECOMMENDATIONS to you or anyone. Researchers do what they are always do, report findings that others can replicate or not. Characterizing this as another example of "experts" disagreeing is asinine. It means you don't understand what is going on. This has been told to you before numerous times. You are deliberately looking for ways to score irrelevant points.
Your original post was a troll and you complaining about me not making up my mind was another troll. This situation has arisen several times on these pages. You find some obscure piece of uncorroborated reported findings and then complain that the researchers don't know what they're doing. If you are not able to properly comprehend the content of these articles, you have no place making comments on their validity. My advice is to stop reading them and do what your medical authorities tell you to do, which has been quite consistent since the beginning, despite your repeated whining to the contrary.
If you don't believe experts, why are you on this thread.
You have your opinion and I have mine. I'm sorry they don't agree. Have a nice day.
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You are being deliberately obtuse and argumentative. The articles we are referring to in this exchange were not about "experts" telling you anything nor recommending policy. They were not telling you to do or not do anything nor were they recommending anything to your political authorities. You chose to look at some research, probably in its early stages, that did NOT MAKE ANY RECOMMENDATIONS to you or anyone. Researchers do what they are always do, report findings that others can replicate or not. Characterizing this as another example of "experts" disagreeing is asinine. It means you don't understand what is going on. This has been told to you before numerous times. You are deliberately looking for ways to score irrelevant points.
Your original post was a troll and you complaining about me not making up my mind was another troll. This situation has arisen several times on these pages. You find some obscure piece of uncorroborated reported findings and then complain that the researchers don't know what they're doing. If you are not able to properly comprehend the content of these articles, you have no place making comments on their validity. My advice is to stop reading them and do what your medical authorities tell you to do, which has been quite consistent since the beginning, despite your repeated whining to the contrary.
If you don't believe experts, why are you on this thread.
The problem with the experts is, their message is being manipulated by the media or just not even reported on.
From a recent study in Japan, it is 18.7 times more difficult to catch this outside. I was in a fairly dense neighborhood this morning, shooting for soundstage backdrops, outside. Specifically I was in Passyunk Sq., which is similar to Brooklyn. Nearly everyone was wearing a mask, except me. I got plenty of side eyes, but I'm not wearing a mask outside, full stop. I don't care if it makes people feel better, I care about what is scientifically right, and wearing outside is not. It is way too hard to either catch it or spread it outside, but the media has everyone in a hair-spin over this that no one is getting the real scientific data.
A poll came out that asked people what percentage of those whom died were under 45 and about 50% said half of those who died are under 45. Close to 60% of Dems think this, when the actual number os 2.7%. 53% of C-19 deaths were from nursing home patients. The party of "science" is really showing their colors I guess.
If you're under 10, the data shows you are more likely to be struck by lightning then die of C-19, yet Dems are insisting schools remain closed and that if we open them we are sacrificing our children. No under 24 has died in PA from C-19 as of last week when I looked.
Sorry, but the data is showing this whole thing was a waste. We should be protecting our elderly and letting everyone get back to living.
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Sorry, but the data is showing this whole thing was a waste. We should be protecting our elderly and letting everyone get back to living.
But how does Joe really know?
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But how does Joe really know?
You again, lol. How's the dance off coming along? Guarantee I'll lose, big time!
But any way, because I look at the data, and all of the data shows exactly what I posted. You can have you're own opinions, but not facts Hugh.
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The problem with the experts is, their message is being manipulated by the media or just not even reported on.
Sigh. It's always the media. Maybe we should just ignore them all and restrict our information gathering to Karen on the Internet.
If you're under 10, the data shows you are more likely to be struck by lightning then die of C-19, yet Dems are insisting schools remain closed and that if we open them we are sacrificing our children.
What about the teachers? Should we even care about them?
.
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Sigh. It's always the media.
And the hysteria, you can't forget the hysteria.
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You again, lol. How's the dance off coming along? Guarantee I'll lose, big time!
But any way, because I look at the data, and all of the data shows exactly what I posted. You can have you're own opinions, but not facts Hugh.
Speaking about the dance:
In Pompano Beach, the social dance club re-opened their door to dancing nights. The dancers are required to wear the masks.
The Naples dance club re-opened their doors as well, and they are dancing without masks.
In Ontario, you can dance only in your own home. Or in your private dance-bubble. Without mask and without a jacket. And without other encumbrances.
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Speaking about the dance:
In Pompano Beach, the social dance club re-opened their door to dancing nights. The dancers are required to wear the masks.
The Naples dance club re-opened their doors as well, and they are dancing without masks.
In Ontario, you can dance only in your own home. Or in your private dance-bubble. Without mask and without a jacket. And without other encumbrances.
Mask or no mask, it would not matter with me. I’m that bad!
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With the mask, you don't have to reveal your identity, you can dance incognito.
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Speaking about the dance:
In Pompano Beach, the social dance club re-opened their door to dancing nights. The dancers are required to wear the masks.
The Naples dance club re-opened their doors as well, and they are dancing without masks.
In Ontario, you can dance only in your own home. Or in your private dance-bubble. Without mask and without a jacket. And without other encumbrances.
It's cooler that way. 8)
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Much cooler. Although some like it hot.
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Sorry, but the data is showing this whole thing was a waste. We should be protecting our elderly and letting everyone get back to living.
Recent increases in infections in e.g. France are largely among younger people, driven by people who are getting back to living.
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You have your opinion and I have mine. I'm sorry they don't agree. Have a nice day.
Science does not care about your opinion or what you believe. That is the whole point of science.
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If you're under 10, the data shows you are more likely to be struck by lightning then die of C-19, yet Dems are insisting schools remain closed and that if we open them we are sacrificing our children.
so if a kid gets infected in school, brings C19 home and some of parents/grandparents die that's OK ? for as long as the kid lives ...
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Recent increases in infections in e.g. France are largely among younger people, driven by people who are getting back to living.
So?
Infection fatality rate for those under 45 is the same as the flu with that group only representing 2.7% of deaths. Not a single person under 24 has died from this in my state. It really is a big nothing burger for the vast majority of the population.
Protect the old; everyone else should just get back on with life.
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Science does not care about your opinion or what you believe. That is the whole point of science.
Tell that to the "critical race theorists" who recently said our concept of light needs to change so as to be more inclusive.
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Protect the old; everyone else should just get back on with life.
You don't see that protecting the old might involve other people moderating their behaviour? Or have the over 45's to hide away while you can continue to act as you please?
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The problem with the experts is, their message is being manipulated by the media or just not even reported on.
Maybe it's getting manipulated on Fox News with all the reports of essance of oleander treatment but I see no signs of it in any of the mainstream media that I read and report from every day. I've been at this since mid-March and would venture to say that without a doubt I know more about COVID-19 than you do.
From a recent study in Japan, it is 18.7 times more difficult to catch this outside. I was in a fairly dense neighborhood this morning, shooting for soundstage backdrops, outside. Specifically I was in Passyunk Sq., which is similar to Brooklyn. Nearly everyone was wearing a mask, except me. I got plenty of side eyes, but I'm not wearing a mask outside, full stop. I don't care if it makes people feel better, I care about what is scientifically right, and wearing outside is not. It is way too hard to either catch it or spread it outside, but the media has everyone in a hair-spin over this that no one is getting the real scientific data.
risk of contracting COVID-19 is based on proximity and density. If you are on a crowded street outside your risk is not zero. If everyone is wearing masks as they should in dense population situations the risk goes way down.
A poll came out that asked people what percentage of those whom died were under 45 and about 50% said half of those who died are under 45. Close to 60% of Dems think this, when the actual number os 2.7%. 53% of C-19 deaths were from nursing home patients. The party of "science" is really showing their colors I guess.
I would advise you to pick up a copy of Carl Bergstrom and Jevin West's new book "Calling Bullshit: the Art of Skepticism in a Data-Driven World." You will quickly know why the above statement you made is misleading and probably false.
If you're under 10, the data shows you are more likely to be struck by lightning then die of C-19, yet Dems are insisting schools remain closed and that if we open them we are sacrificing our children. No under 24 has died in PA from C-19 as of last week when I looked.
Children under 10 have died. they have also suffered from multiinflammatory syndrome at a much greater rate than the remainder of the population. Nobody is insisting schools remain closed, the problem is that few schools have followed scientific developed protocols by the American Academy of Pediatrics, the National Academy of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine as well as other groups. A number of epidemiologists have argued that schools can open safely if these conditions are met. You also need to realize that while those under 21 are at a much lower risk of severe COVID-19 they are also good vectors of transmission, possibly infecting their teachers, school staff, parents, grandparents and other adults. Schools in some very conservative states opened and then quickly closed when infections picked up.
Sorry, but the data is showing this whole thing was a waste. We should be protecting our elderly and letting everyone get back to living.
If you spent some time reading you might be better informed. You can always read back issues of my daily newsletter and get the unvarnished truth: https://agoldhammer.com/covid_19/ You would quickly see that I have never been one to call for total school shutdowns.
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Although I've repeated it 1000 times, I've been wearing masks since this thing started. In fact, I bought KN-95 masks direct from China and paid extra for them including expedited shipping. I bought surgical masks directly from them as well.
I've decided to try a cotton mask as they appear to have improved the design and "experts" claim they're almost as good. Maybe someone else can recommend a type of filter that's best.
Cotton masks if they fit snugly is all you need is you are just doing routine stuff and not going into areas that are packed tightly with people. There have been several technical papers that I've referenced in my newsletter that show this. https://agoldhammer.com/covid_19/
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Science does not care about your opinion or what you believe. That is the whole point of science.
Well, then. Everything must be settled.
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Well, then. Everything must be settled.
Please stop trolling this thread.
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...Schools in some very conservative states opened and then quickly closed when infections picked up.
If you spent some time reading you might be better informed. You can always read back issues of my daily newsletter and get the unvarnished truth: https://agoldhammer.com/covid_19/ You would quickly see that I have never been one to call for total school shutdowns.
I don't have time to read your blog. Could you summarize how schools can partially open? It seems to be a big issue now.
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Please stop trolling this thread.
Robert. You seem to have a problem with everything I say. Maybe you ought to stop reading my posts.
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Robert. You seem to have a problem with everything I say. Maybe you ought to stop reading my posts.
Why don't you simply start a new thread on which you can discuss all the things that experts get wrong and leave this thread to its original purpose.
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Why don't you simply start a new thread on which you can discuss all the things that experts get wrong and leave this thread to its original purpose.
I was responding ironically to point up the silliness in another's point that scientists have gotten everything right and that I should just accept them. That my viewpoint and opinion don't count. That's pretty insulting telling someone they're a dummy, that only scientists can think and make conclusions. I doubt if you believe that either. Second, everyone here is giving their opinion. Without them there would be no thread. You just want to to shut up with opinion that differs from yours or the scientists whose opinions you agree with. Sorry. But, that won't happen. I expect people to respect my opinions as well. It's not trolling. You, of course, can ignore them if you wish.
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I don't have time to read your blog. Could you summarize how schools can partially open? It seems to be a big issue now.
https://services.aap.org/en/pages/2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-infections/clinical-guidance/covid-19-planning-considerations-return-to-in-person-education-in-schools/
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https://services.aap.org/en/pages/2019-novel-coronavirus-covid-19-infections/clinical-guidance/covid-19-planning-considerations-return-to-in-person-education-in-schools/
Thanks. I read through some of the requirements and stopped when they became overloaded. They are so onerous, I don't see how any school system could get anywhere near meeting these requirements. Even before they get to school, the bus requirements can't be met. My comments are in bold.
Buses
Encourage alternative modes of transportation for students who have other safe options, including walking or biking. Before the bus driver starts their route, how do they know who's going with them or not and who they're picking up? Who decides who has to take other transportation?
Ideally, for students riding the bus, symptom screening would be performed prior to them being dropped off at the bus stop. WHo checks the kids before they get on the bius? How? Where?
Having bus drivers or monitors perform these screenings is problematic, as they may face a situation in which a student screens positive yet the parent has left, and the driver would be faced with leaving the student alone or allowing the student on the bus. What do the bus driver's do?
Assigned seating; if possible, assign seats by cohort (same students sit together each day). What happens when the bus reaches it maximum load about half the usual kids? Does the driver go home? What are the rest of the kids who have not been picked up suppose to do?
Tape marks showing students where to sit. Buses onormally pick up full loads. What happens to the other half of kids?
Face coverings should be worn at all times, particularly if 6 feet distance cannot be maintained. Is the bus drivers suppose to control the kids and drive too? I can imagine what's going to happen the first time a driver is distracted and runs his bus into a telephone pole and kills three kids.
Drivers should be a minimum of 6 feet from students; driver must wear face covering; consider physical barrier for driver (eg, plexiglass).
Minimize number of people on the bus at one time within reason. See above question about half loads.
Consider altering start and end times at different grades to allow fewer students on the bus at a time. How does this happen?
Adults who do not need to be on the bus should not be on the bus.
Have windows open if weather allows.
Ensure adequate cleaning of buses between uses.
The logistics seem impossible. The rules once the kids get to school are similarly draconian. How do you run half classes? I see why teachers are complaining that it's an impossible task they're being asked to perform. MAybe the solution is the internet from home. I don't know. Is anyone sending their kids to school? How are they handling it? Maybe there are other more practical solutions.
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The problem I see with the school's recommendations are that only medical results are taken into consideration. Like the problem with best practices for people in general, no one is thinking about the practical limitations on how societies work. They did the same thing with shutting down the economy. Only medical outcomes are considered. They're ignoring how school systems and economies really work. The solutions in both cases aren't practical. Just like the economies are failing, so will the schools.
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Europe reopened their schools month ago and all evidence shows they have not become a vector for transmission. There is no reason to keep schools closed here anymore.
Not to mention, child abuse is almost certainly going up, and schools are the number one source, by far, of recognizing and reporting. Mental health issues are also going up due to this lockdown along with immune systems not getting the required exposure to germs to fully develop.
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Europe reopened their schools month ago and all evidence shows they have not become a vector for transmission. There is no reason to keep schools closed here anymore.
Not to mention, child abuse is almost certainly going up, and schools are the number one source, by far, of recognizing and reporting. Mental health issues are also going up due to this lockdown along with immune systems not getting the required exposure to germs to fully develop.
So why are we listening to the American Society of Pediatrics or the CDC? We should be looking at other nations who are getting real world results.
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I'm sure glad Joe knows. Thanks Joe. I feel better.
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Robert. You seem to have a problem with everything I say. Maybe you ought to stop reading my posts.
Why don't you simply start a new thread on which you can discuss all the things that experts get wrong and leave this thread to its original purpose.
Actually, he did: that was the crazytalk ("PLAYPEN") thread that he initiated and Jeremy Roussak eventually shut down after it wandered off-topic and became too crazy.
At the time it was started, I thought the idea behind that thread was that forum participants could post idiotic theories regarding the pandemic with impunity and insult each other as much as they wanted (well, perhaps with some minimal requirement for civility) without moderator intervention.
Unfortunately, it didn't work. The made-up "facts," unsubstantiated rumors, and infantile pissing matches continued to pop up in this and other threads that are ostensibly intended for intelligent discussion, even while the PLAYPEN still remained open. At the moment, there is no other place to post them.
I suppose moderation can constrain these excesses to some extent, but I think those who want to debate politically-sensitive topics rationally need to stop responding to posts that appear to be solely designed to provoke a response.
Then, if and when Jeremy unlocks the PLAYPEN, perhaps there will be a chance of keeping the crazytalk confined within its perimeter.
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deleted
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Freely translated: "I can't be bothered to read your informed documentation, I'm too busy posting my own private truths on the Internet. Please do my due diligence for me."
Peter, Alan G's blog has hundred of reports none of them labelled for easy reference. You would have to go through thousands of pages of arcane medical information to try to find details to questions I asked about kids and schools. It would take days to go through his voluminous blogs and reports. In fact, when he answered my request, he gave me a link to the American Academy of Pediatrics not his blog. Why do you always feel it's necessary to attack me, call me a troll and other insulting comments?
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Actually, he did: that was the crazytalk ("PLAYPEN") thread that he initiated and Jeremy Roussak eventually shut down after it wandered off-topic and became too crazy.
At the time it was started, I thought the idea behind that thread was that forum participants could post idiotic theories regarding the pandemic with impunity and insult each other as much as they wanted (well, perhaps with some minimal requirement for civility) without moderator intervention.
Unfortunately, it didn't work. The made-up "facts," unsubstantiated rumors, and infantile pissing matches continued to pop up in this and other threads that are ostensibly intended for intelligent discussion, even while the PLAYPEN still remained open. At the moment, there is no other place to post them.
I suppose moderation can constrain these excesses to some extent, but I think those who want to debate politically-sensitive topics rationally need to stop responding to posts that appear to be solely designed to provoke a response.
Then, if and when Jeremy unlocks the PLAYPEN, perhaps there will be a chance of keeping the crazytalk confined within its perimeter.
Chris, This thread says no politics. It doesn't say your can't object to medical opinions and raise questions as to what effect medical advice have on school operation or the economy. Calling it crazytalk is just a way of silencing opposing viewpoints. No thread in LuLA requires that.
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Another casualty of the virus is forest fire fighting in California. From the NY Times:
"Fewer inmate firefighters are available after being freed because of the coronavirus pandemic, raising questions over whether California should use prison labor at all."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/22/us/california-wildfires.html#link-cf44fb5
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/22/us/california-wildfires.html
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Why do you always feel it's necessary to attack me, call me a troll and other insulting comments?
I don't always. I only do when you say dumb stuff.
I don't believe I've ever called you a troll.
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I don't always. I only do when you say dumb stuff.
I don't believe I've ever called you a troll.
Well, someone did. Sorry I accused you. I've got my hands filled with you guys. :)
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Well, someone did. Sorry I accused you. I've got my hands filled with you guys. :)
The cooking thread is much safer.
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The cooking thread is much safer.
I'm not sure. I had a triple bypass last year. :)
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My town just had three days with no (new) cases. Best so far. On the other hand I had to meet with a contractor who's quoting an emergency generator. We had a four day power failure recently. His mask kept slipping and he kept getting in my face. And my neighbor's mask also kept slipping as he got close to me. I took a shower when they left. I'm trying to learn how to breathe out only.
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The logistics seem impossible. The rules once the kids get to school are similarly draconian. How do you run half classes? I see why teachers are complaining that it's an impossible task they're being asked to perform. MAybe the solution is the internet from home. I don't know. Is anyone sending their kids to school? How are they handling it? Maybe there are other more practical solutions.
they are not impossible but just require education of students and teachers. My daughter is an elementary school special ed teacher and she wants to get back into the classroom safely to help out this vulnerable group of kids. Remote learning does NOT work for them and in class work is the only way. There are no easy answers here or in other areas as well.
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Europe reopened their schools month ago and all evidence shows they have not become a vector for transmission. There is no reason to keep schools closed here anymore.
this is untrue. Israel also opened their schools and saw a large jump in school and societal cases of COVID-19.
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they are not impossible but just require education of students and teachers. My daughter is an elementary school special ed teacher and she wants to get back into the classroom safely to help out this vulnerable group of kids. Remote learning does NOT work for them and in class work is the only way. There are no easy answers here or in other areas as well.
The procedures seem great on paper. We'll see soon just how practical they are. Let's hope it works out. We really need to get back to some form of normalcy.
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this is untrue. Israel also opened their schools and saw a large jump in school and societal cases of COVID-19.
Correct, and schools in Europe didn't fully open months ago either. They gradually opened, shortly before summer holidays, so any outbreaks could be more easily managed. Now (last week) 1/3rd of the schools in my country have started opening up, with lots of (distancing and hygiene/masks) precautions and additional ventilation (not recirculation). Testing capacity should be able to quickly detect any outbreaks and contain them.
I also find it shortsighted by some to only focus on the lower casualty numbers with lower age, since children can be the ones that infect their surroundings (teachers, parents, grandparents, other family and neighbors). And also, some children do get very ill, and may (unlike most influenza cases) suffer the consequences for life.
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Experts change their minds again. Travelers complain of dizziness.
CDC Quietly Drops Mandatory 14-Day Quarantine After Traveling
https://www.travelpulse.com/news/impacting-travel/cdc-quietly-drops-mandatory-14-day-quarantine-after-traveling.html
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this is untrue. Israel also opened their schools and saw a large jump in school and societal cases of COVID-19.
Israel is not in Europe btw.
Yes, but it is believed that spread was in the faculty lounges, not classes. But anyway, yes, what I wrote is true, Europe has opened classes to a much greater degree then we have. No reason we should not follow suit while limited faculty interactions. Give older faculty unpaid sabbaticals if they wish to take them, but we need to reopen.
BTW, only 2.7% of C-19 deaths are of those under 45. We are being hysterical over this. Make acomindations for those over 55, but the rest have an much to worry about as normal life.
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Experts in law enforcement apparently need retraining.
"At least 13 people died in a crush in Peru after trying to escape police who raided a nightclub violating coronavirus restrictions, police say."
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-latin-america-53880996
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Risk of getting it and risk of dying are very different stats Alan. Most under 45 dont even know if they get it, and those under are 24 almost immune from dying.
You statement of "children under 10 have died" is so statistically misleading it should be criminal. What percentage of those under 10 who catch it die? It is as low as being struck by lightning. Stop with the scare tactics, seriously.
The only reason schools that reopened and then closed is due to media sensationalizing everything to sell headlines, nothing more. As of right now, there is no reward for politicans to not fully close, and that is the reason we are seeing closings.
And then we have all of the negative consequences of closing, which causes death and which so many are happy to ignore, we will have to deal with. After this is all said and done, I am sure the full lockdowns will be seen as a total disaster and something to never be repeated.
If you break down the stats per state, the Red states are doing better then the Blue, which is why I think it is a must to establish a base in TX.
Seasonal flu statistics for children. We don't close schools. How does this compare to Covid deaths for children? See bottom.
"While relatively rare, some children die from flu each year. Since 2004-2005, flu-related deaths in children reported to CDC during regular flu seasons have ranged from 37 to 187 deaths."
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/highrisk/children.htm#:~:text=While%20relatively%20rare%2C%20some%20children,%2C%202009%20to%20September%2C%202010.
Covid deaths and children 90 deaths
Appendix Table 2C: Summary of Child Mortality Data from 5/21 – 8/13*
https://downloads.aap.org/AAP/PDF/AAP%20and%20CHA%20-%20Children%20and%20COVID-19%20State%20Data%20Report%208.13.20%20FINAL%20v2.pdf
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Israel is not in Europe btw.
Yes, but it is believed that spread was in the faculty lounges, not classes. But anyway, yes, what I wrote is true, Europe has opened classes to a much greater degree then we have. No reason we should not follow suit while limited faculty interactions. Give older faculty unpaid sabbaticals if they wish to take them, but we need to reopen.
BTW, only 2.7% of C-19 deaths are of those under 45. We are being hysterical over this. Make acomindations for those over 55, but the rest have an much to worry about as normal life.
Parent are losing their parental rights due to Covid in more than when they should go to school.
Parents have lost control of their children's education
"Taking part in your child's education should be mandatory not illegal"[/i]
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/aug/22/parents-have-lost-control-of-their-childrens-educa/
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I know a young couple who run a small service business dealing with other people, and they worry that their young daughter could bring from the school home the virus and not only infect them, but also ruining their business. Tough choices, indeed!
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They're lucky they still have a business. The NY government is begging businesses to come back and get their business started again before NYC closes up shop forever.
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Europe reopened their schools month ago and all evidence shows they have not become a vector for transmission. There is no reason to keep schools closed here anymore.
Not to mention, child abuse is almost certainly going up, and schools are the number one source, by far, of recognizing and reporting. Mental health issues are also going up due to this lockdown along with immune systems not getting the required exposure to germs to fully develop.
In Portugal, schools have reopened in June but not for all students, only those taking exams to enter University. Also schools for 3 - 6 years old. But the opening was done with all possible cares in terms of avoiding infection spreading. with such care, last week studies have shown that only 1% of new cases have come from schools.
On the other hand, children are prone to get infected and not show symptoms. Unfortunately, last week a 4 month old baby died of Covid.
Wearing a mask and obeying the 3Cs is hardly difficult.
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Israel is not in Europe btw.
But they do compete in the Eurovision Song Contest :-)
Yes, but it is believed that spread was in the faculty lounges, not classes. But anyway, yes, what I wrote is true, Europe has opened classes to a much greater degree then we have. No reason we should not follow suit while limited faculty interactions.
Schools exist in a context of community transmission, so what is appropriate for one country may not be appropriate for another
Give older faculty unpaid sabbaticals if they wish to take them, but we need to reopen.
BTW, only 2.7% of C-19 deaths are of those under 45. We are being hysterical over this. Make acomindations for those over 55, but the rest have an much to worry about as normal life.
Yeah, get those old folks outa sight - give them more time to bs on internet forums.
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We are in a new stage where nations/politicians are so desperate to find treatments and a vaccin; they even apply a not well tested vaccin/treatment to bring 'good news'.
As experts say: it is not difficult to make a vaccin; it is difficult and takes a long time to proof it is safe.
A bad vaccin may be worse than the virus, imagine.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53884710
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53621708
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We are in a new stage where nations/politicians are so desperate to find treatments and a vaccin; they even apply a not well tested vaccin/treatment to bring 'good news'.
As experts say: it is not difficult to make a vaccin; it is difficult and takes a long time to proof it is safe.
A bad vaccin may be worse than the virus, imagine.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-53884710
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-53621708
We can only hope that the sick people who will be used as test subjects get lucky.
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Parent are losing their parental rights due to Covid in more than when they should go to school.
Parents have lost control of their children's education
"Taking part in your child's education should be mandatory not illegal"[/i]
https://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2020/aug/22/parents-have-lost-control-of-their-childrens-educa/
Washington Times?! Please be serious. One of the worst "news" outlets in the country. It has long been owned by the Unification Church, AKA the Moonies. Long sordid record of shoddy reporting, sensationalism, and non-correction of errors.
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Washington Times?! Please be serious. One of the worst "news" outlets in the country. It has long been owned by the Unification Church, AKA the Moonies. Long sordid record of shoddy reporting, sensationalism, and non-correction of errors.
You mean like the Washington Post owned by Jeff Bezos?
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You mean like the Washington Post owned by Jeff Bezos?
I kinda like the idea of equating Jeff Bezos with the Moonies. But let me suggest that you look at the NO POLITICS part of this thread's title. Or are you trying to shut this one down, too?
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I kinda like the idea of equating Jeff Bezos with the Moonies. But let me suggest that you look at the NO POLITICS part of this thread's title. Or are you trying to shut this one down, too?
I was responding to PeterAit's post. He politicized an article I referred too. Why aren't you complaining about his political post? In fact you're doing the same thing I did by policizing Jeff Bezos, exactly as I did. So you;re guilty of it like Peter. If someone else posts something about the nature of one newspaper, we should be able to comment about another newspaper.
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I was responding to PeterAit's post. He politicized an article I referred too. Why aren't you complaining about his political post?
MOM! He started it!!!
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MOM! He started it!!!
I'm not blaming him. I stand by my response. What I'm questioning is why you're taking sides?
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Like I've been saying, don't count your chickens before they hatch.
"South Korea, a country held up as a model for its response to Covid-19, is on the brink of a new nationwide outbreak, according to officials"
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-asia-53888219
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Like I've been saying, don't count your chickens before they hatch.
"South Korea, a country held up as a model for its response to Covid-19, is on the brink of a new nationwide outbreak, according to officials"
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-asia-53888219
Yesterday's counts - South Korea - 266 new cases, 309 - total deaths. USA - 41,484 new cases, 181,114 total deaths. 51M people in SK, vs 331M in USA.
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Yesterday's counts - South Korea - 266 new cases, 309 - total deaths. USA - 41,484 new cases, 181,114 total deaths. 51M people in SK, vs 331M in USA.
It's always important to view the number of Covid-related deaths per size of population in any particular country, whether deaths per 100,000 or deaths per million, so thanks for mentioning the population size and encouraging us to do some basic maths. ;)
The USA deaths per million are currently 547. South Korean deaths per million are only 6, whilst China's deaths per million are even lower, at just 3. Wow!
However, Thailand's deaths per million are lower still, less than one person per million, just 0.8. That's very remarkable. If I were stuck abroad because of Covid-19, I'd choose Thailand, or perhaps Vietnam with only 0.3 deaths per million. ;)
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdvegas1?%22%20%5Cl%20%22countries
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Like I've been saying, don't count your chickens before they hatch.
"South Korea, a country held up as a model for its response to Covid-19, is on the brink of a new nationwide outbreak, according to officials"
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-asia-53888219
And like many have said countless times, a resurgence/second wave is expected. The magnitude will depend on how countries and especially population in general faces the threat. In some countries, like Spain (closest to Portugal, so I know more about it) looks like a good part of the population already forgot what happenned in March, April, and May.
It seems like the USA is still is the first wave...
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And like many have said countless times, a resurgence/second wave is expected. The magnitude will depend on how countries and especially population in general faces the threat. In some countries, like Spain (closest to Portugal, so I know more about it) looks like a good part of the population already forgot what happenned in March, April, and May.
It seems like the USA is still is the first wave...
I predicted a couple months ago the US will settle out by the end of August, that the disease has to go through the community. The northeast (NY and NJ) was hit first. It needed to go through the west and south which it's now doing. I think the "resurgence/second wave" in other countries is really a continuation of the first wave. Hopefully America will be done with that and will be able to deal with small "outbreaks" more easily.
Now whether there will be a second wave, one brought on by a variant of the disease, I don't know. Time will tell. But countries like America, Portugal, Spain, Italy, and Sweden, who got hit harder than others, for whatever the reasons, will stand up better going forward. What doesn't kill you makes you stronger.
Here’s why new cases of the coronavirus are down across most of the U.S.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/25/new-cases-of-the-coronavirus-are-falling-in-most-of-the-us.html
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But countries like America, Portugal, Spain, Italy, and Sweden, who got hit harder than others, for whatever the reasons, will stand up better going forward. What doesn't kill you makes you stronger.
Because ... ??
Here’s why new cases of the coronavirus are down across most of the U.S.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/25/new-cases-of-the-coronavirus-are-falling-in-most-of-the-us.html
Epidemiologists credit a more unified health message in the U.S. that has more people following social distancing rules. They also say that keeping some businesses closed has helped slow the outbreak. .
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Epidemiologists credit a more unified health message in the U.S. that has more people following social distancing rules. They also say that keeping some businesses closed has helped slow the outbreak. .
That's true. However, my point is that the disease has to go through the community, slow or fast, to reach a stabilization point. The quicker it goes through, the quicker that point is reached and society can get back to some normalcy.
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That's true. However, my point is that the disease has to go through the community, slow or fast, to reach a stabilization point. The quicker it goes through, the quicker that point is reached and society can get back to some normalcy.
You've said that many times but there is no evidence for it.
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That's true. However, my point is that the disease has to go through the community, slow or fast, to reach a stabilization point. The quicker it goes through, the quicker that point is reached and society can get back to some normalcy.
That's about as weak an argument as the theory about C19 dying in the summer or the herd immunity fallacy. The only safe stabilization point is about 6 feet from your food delivery man.
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You've said that many times but there is no evidence for it.
Of course things are getting better. A semblance of normalcy is returning here in New Jersey as more and more things are opening up. My town only had three new case of Covid in the last 5 days. Three people died in the entire state. Similar improvement will follow in the south and west as the number of cases decrease.
Here are the plans for opening schools. It's complicated and open to lots of revisions. But we're moving forward. Be positive.
N.J. takes a regional approach to school reopening. Here’s why (Gov.) Murphy says that won’t work for indoor dining, gyms.
https://www.nj.com/education/2020/08/nj-takes-a-regional-approach-to-school-reopening-heres-why-murphy-says-that-wont-work-for-indoor-dining-gyms.html
Our next door neighbor, the State of Pennsylvania, only had one death in the whole state, better than us in NJ. They're using a hybrid method for school openings.
Pa. coronavirus updates: 426 new cases; only one more death; schools and sports preparing for a strange year in the classroom, at home and on the field | Pa. COVID-19 county case map (08/24/20)
https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/coronavirus/2020/08/pa-coronavirus-updates-426-new-cases-only-one-more-death-schools-and-sports-preparing-for-a-strange-year-in-the-classroom-at-home-and-on-the-field-pa-covid-19-county-case-map-082420.html
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Of course things are getting better. A semblance of normalcy is returning here in New Jersey as more and more things are opening up. My town only had three new case of Covid in the last 5 days. Three people died in the entire state. Similar improvement will follow in the south and west as the number of cases decrease.
Yes there are improvements - you yourself posted an article explaining why - nothing to do with 'places hit harder restore normailty quicker'.
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That's about as weak an argument as the theory about C19 dying in the summer or the herd immunity fallacy. The only safe stabilization point is about 6 feet from your food delivery man.
Herd immunity is not a fallacy. What's being questioned is when it kicks in. I would think it's on a sliding scale. The more people who have had it, the slower it spreads. It doubt if there an exact percent where it switches in like an on-off switch.
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Herd immunity is not a fallacy. What's being questioned is when it kicks in. I would think it's on a sliding scale. The more people who have had it, the slower it spreads. It doubt if there an exact percent where it switches in like an on-off switch.
I'd imagine that there is a pretty small range of percentages where it switches on/off, similar to percolation phenomena. But in any case, the percentage needing immunity to protect the "herd" seems to be in excess of 50%. That would pretty much eliminate the 'senior community'.
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I'd imagine that there is a pretty small range of percentages where it switches on/off, similar to percolation phenomena. But in any case, the percentage needing immunity to protect the "herd" seems to be in excess of 50%. That would pretty much eliminate the 'senior community'.
Just to clarify my point. If a majority of younger people, God bless them :), sacrificed themselves and got Covid because they hang out in discos (am I dating myself?), then us old fogies would be protected because there are so few people left who haven't gotten the disease. Herd immunity would have kicked in or at least partially.
A vaccine could add to the herd immunity so we all can come out of our air raid shelters and breathe fresh air again.
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Just to clarify my point. If a majority of younger people, God bless them :), sacrificed themselves and got Covid because they hang out in discos (am I dating myself?), then us old fogies would be protected because there are so few people left who haven't gotten the disease. Herd immunity would have kicked in or at least partially.
A vaccine could add to the herd immunity so we all can come out of our air raid shelters and breathe fresh air again.
The assumption behind the 50% ( or whatever) figure is that these people will be generally evenly distributed in the population. So.you don't get out of jail by sacrificing a limited group of people.
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Just to clarify my point. If a majority of younger people, God bless them :), sacrificed themselves and got Covid because they hang out in discos (am I dating myself?), then us old fogies would be protected because there are so few people left who haven't gotten the disease. Herd immunity would have kicked in or at least partially.
A vaccine could add to the herd immunity so we all can come out of our air raid shelters and breathe fresh air again.
For the last six months, I've been out every day and breathing the fresh air. Keeping away from vaccines and herds.
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This is an interesting graphic. It shows the spread based on 0%, 20%, 40%, and 60% vaccination rate based on a vaccine with 70% effectiveness. Let the process run a few times as the results vary some. There are also active charts showing difference when masks and distancing variables are added. The experts think that herd immunity kicks in around 60-65%. Natural immunity could work but the jury is still out as to how effective. Plus they're concerned with the other effects from getting Covid including death of course.
My thinking is if areas have higher rates already, like NYC which some estimated at 20%, you could reach herd immunity quicker with less vaccination than areas with lower natural Covid rates requiring more vaccinations.
https://graphics.reuters.com/HEALTH-CORONAVIRUS/HERD%20IMMUNITY%20(EXPLAINER)/gjnvwayydvw/
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I also find it shortsighted by some to only focus on the lower casualty numbers with lower age, since children can be the ones that infect their surroundings (teachers, parents, grandparents, other family and neighbors). And also, some children do get very ill, and may (unlike most influenza cases) suffer the consequences for life.
There is a family of five in our area. The two parents got COVID-19 first, both cases were mild and not needing hospitalization. The two boys 13 & 16 were both hospitalized and put on ECMO machines as their blood oxygen levels were dropping rapidly. the were hospitalized for a month and one of them lost a lot of weight and is now doing PT to get his strength back. The daughter was not sick.
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That's true. However, my point is that the disease has to go through the community, slow or fast, to reach a stabilization point. The quicker it goes through, the quicker that point is reached and society can get back to some normalcy.
If you know what the stabilization point us, please let me know. I've seen papers that give a range of 25-75% of the population needing to be infected before there is general immunity.
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I wrote the following in my newsletter on 1) herd immunity and 2) vaccines.
There have been numerous models that attempt to come up with a number and I have reported on most of them. Percentage of infected needed to achieve herd immunity range from 20 to just over 70%. Part of New York City are thought to have achieved this if the value is at the lower end of the range. However, this may not be the case as it only applies to the stochastic case of a closed system. If Queens can be isolated from the outside, herd immunity may exist. However, if the value for herd immunity is 30%, then 70% are still naïve and subject to infection. Travel in and out of Queens will subject those people to potential infection. One simple example as to how this happens are the sporadic outbreaks of measles in the US because of insufficient vaccine compliance. According to CDC, 91.5% of children receive MMR vaccination and yet outbreaks still occur. Does this mean that herd immunity for this disease is greater than 91% (quite a high number!)? No, it just means that there are variables that we still don’t fully understand. As the famous literary and film quote goes, “it’s complicated!”
Apparently President Trump’s chief of staff, Mark Meadows, does not know how clinical trials work. Subjects need to be enrolled, data needs to be gathered, and case reports need to be analyzed and quantified. Unless Mr. Meadows knows of some magic way to find a shortcut, the time to do the trial and analysis is easy to quantify. Let’s look at the Pfizer m-RNA vaccine. This past Friday, Pfizer said they had enrolled 11,000 of the 30,000 patients needed. Two injections are required, the second one is 21 days from the initial shot. The vaccine is being tested globally, currently enrolling in the US, Brazil, and Argentina with additional enrollment in Germany, Turkey, and South Africa. Assuming enrollment is completed early September, the two-shot vaccination regimen will be completed by the end of that month at the latest. I do not know what the evaluation time frame to judge how protective the vaccine is. According to the trial description, confirmed COVID-19 cases are measured beginning seven days after the second vaccination. Pfizer say the expected end date for the trial is November 11. This means the last enrolled patient would be observed for about six weeks If I have done my math correctly. The linked press release states Pfizer may be in a position to seek regulatory review as early as this October and perhaps they will have compelling but incomplete data if that is the goal. This assumes everything goes right with the trial. One further note, Pfizer indicate 100 million doses would be ready by the end of the year. With a two-dose regimen, this would be enough to immunize 50m. We do not know whether all of these 50m would be available to the US.
Personally, I am not a fan of the gene based vaccines as I do not think they will provide enough immunity for those of us over 65. Those of you in this category who received the new shingles vaccine know first hand what it's like to get a super-potent vaccine. It has a lot of antigen and a new adjuvant that jack the immune system into producing a strong response. There is only one near term vaccine that fits this bill and that is the one made by Novavax. Sanofi/GSK are working on one but I don't know the time frame. GSK make the shingles vaccine and have developed the adjuvant as well.
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There is a family of five in our area. The two parents got COVID-19 first, both cases were mild and not needing hospitalization. The two boys 13 & 16 were both hospitalized and put on ECMO machines as their blood oxygen levels were dropping rapidly. the were hospitalized for a month and one of them lost a lot of weight and is now doing PT to get his strength back. The daughter was not sick.
What's your point? Your example is anecdotal. Sure, it's terrible when children get sick and God forbid die. But there are approximately as many annual deaths for children from seasonal Flu as there are from Covid 19.
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I wrote the following in my newsletter on 1) herd immunity and 2) vaccines.
There have been numerous models that attempt to come up with a number and I have reported on most of them. Percentage of infected needed to achieve herd immunity range from 20 to just over 70%. Part of New York City are thought to have achieved this if the value is at the lower end of the range. However, this may not be the case as it only applies to the stochastic case of a closed system. If Queens can be isolated from the outside, herd immunity may exist. However, if the value for herd immunity is 30%, then 70% are still naïve and subject to infection. Travel in and out of Queens will subject those people to potential infection. One simple example as to how this happens are the sporadic outbreaks of measles in the US because of insufficient vaccine compliance. According to CDC, 91.5% of children receive MMR vaccination and yet outbreaks still occur. Does this mean that herd immunity for this disease is greater than 91% (quite a high number!)? No, it just means that there are variables that we still don’t fully understand. As the famous literary and film quote goes, “it’s complicated!”
Apparently President Trump’s chief of staff, Mark Meadows, does not know how clinical trials work. Subjects need to be enrolled, data needs to be gathered, and case reports need to be analyzed and quantified. Unless Mr. Meadows knows of some magic way to find a shortcut, the time to do the trial and analysis is easy to quantify. Let’s look at the Pfizer m-RNA vaccine. This past Friday, Pfizer said they had enrolled 11,000 of the 30,000 patients needed. Two injections are required, the second one is 21 days from the initial shot. The vaccine is being tested globally, currently enrolling in the US, Brazil, and Argentina with additional enrollment in Germany, Turkey, and South Africa. Assuming enrollment is completed early September, the two-shot vaccination regimen will be completed by the end of that month at the latest. I do not know what the evaluation time frame to judge how protective the vaccine is. According to the trial description, confirmed COVID-19 cases are measured beginning seven days after the second vaccination. Pfizer say the expected end date for the trial is November 11. This means the last enrolled patient would be observed for about six weeks If I have done my math correctly. The linked press release states Pfizer may be in a position to seek regulatory review as early as this October and perhaps they will have compelling but incomplete data if that is the goal. This assumes everything goes right with the trial. One further note, Pfizer indicate 100 million doses would be ready by the end of the year. With a two-dose regimen, this would be enough to immunize 50m. We do not know whether all of these 50m would be available to the US.
Personally, I am not a fan of the gene based vaccines as I do not think they will provide enough immunity for those of us over 65. Those of you in this category who received the new shingles vaccine know first hand what it's like to get a super-potent vaccine. It has a lot of antigen and a new adjuvant that jack the immune system into producing a strong response. There is only one near term vaccine that fits this bill and that is the one made by Novavax. Sanofi/GSK are working on one but I don't know the time frame. GSK make the shingles vaccine and have developed the adjuvant as well.
I was going to respond. But politics isn't allowed in this thread. Your comment about the president's advisor is a political insult of Trump's leadership ability regarding the virus.
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I was going to respond. But politics isn't allowed in this thread. Your comment about the president's advisor is a political insult of Trump's leadership ability regarding the virus.
That is preposterous response to a factual and informative post.
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I was going to respond. But politics isn't allowed in this thread. Your comment about the president's advisor is a political insult of Trump's leadership ability regarding the virus.
That's enough for me. If anyone wants answers they can go to my COVID-19 website: https://agoldhammer.com/covid_19/ or send me a private message through this website or you can send me an email through mine. I had quite enough of foolish posts and figure that if people don't want to read about factual information they can simmer in their on confirmational biases.
Fairwell and good night! Signing off in favor of more productive activities.
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That is preposterous response to a factual and informative post.
His comments were a political put down of the president. It didn't belong there with other factual information. I didn't set the rules.
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I was going to respond. But politics isn't allowed in this thread. Your comment about the president's advisor is a political insult of Trump's leadership ability regarding the virus.
So now we have a ‘political insult’ as opposed to a simple insult ?
Actually, neither.
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What's your point? Your example is anecdotal. Sure, it's terrible when children get sick and God forbid die. But there are approximately as many annual deaths for children from seasonal Flu as there are from Covid 19.
It's not anecdotal, schools and universities show now higher number of C19 infections.
More U.S. colleges were grappling with high numbers of students testing positive for the coronavirus just days into the start of the fall semester after some universities rolled back their campus reopening plans in recent weeks.
“USC Student Health has received an alarming increase in the number of COVID-19 cases in students in the University Park Campus community,” the university said in a statement, adding that all cases were related to students in “off-campus living environments.”
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/more-u-s-colleges-see-spike-in-covid-19-cases-after-classes-resume-idUSKBN25L2GG
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What's your point? Your example is anecdotal. Sure, it's terrible when children get sick and God forbid die. But there are approximately as many annual deaths for children from seasonal Flu as there are from Covid 19.
Tell me Alan, why do you stay at home?
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It's not anecdotal, schools and universities show now higher number of C19 infections.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/more-u-s-colleges-see-spike-in-covid-19-cases-after-classes-resume-idUSKBN25L2GG
His post was anecdotal. Sure. Some children get very sick from Covid. So what? Most don't. He gave no statistics to advance the anecdote to general scientific fact. He's tugging on our emotions rather than drawing on scientific facts.
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So now we have a ‘political insult’ as opposed to a simple insult ?
Actually, neither.
His statement: "Unless Mr. Meadows knows of some magic way to find a shortcut..." is political innuendo. Using the phrase including "magic" regarding his thinking was a put down of the president's Chief of Staff and by extension the president himself. It doesn't belong in a scientific treatise nor in a thread devoted to NO POLITICS. Treatment regarding this matter should be equally applied to all posters.
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This thread is losing its grip, but for the benefit of those still looking for content about Covid, this podcast is highly informative, https://samharris.org/podcasts/214-august-13-2020/ (https://samharris.org/podcasts/214-august-13-2020/).
Intro paragrpah from that page "In this episode of the podcast, Sam Harris speaks with Siddhartha Mukherjee about our ongoing failure to adequately respond to the Covid-19 pandemic. They discuss the significance of asymptomatic spread, the lack of Chinese cooperation, the failures of testing, travel restrictions, the missteps of the FDA and the CDC, controversy around masks, the lack of coordination among the states, conspiracy thinking about mortality statistics, the political contamination of public health information, electronic medical records, preparing for the next pandemic, the immunology of Covid-19, the long term consequences of the disease, concerns about a vaccine, the coming prospect of school openings, and other topics."
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That's enough for me. If anyone wants answers they can go to my COVID-19 website: https://agoldhammer.com/covid_19/ or send me a private message through this website or you can send me an email through mine. I had quite enough of foolish posts and figure that if people don't want to read about factual information they can simmer in their on confirmational biases.
Fairwell and good night! Signing off in favor of more productive activities.
Alan Goldhammer (assuming you're still here) instead of depriving us of valuable information, why don't you just block Alan Klein? You really don't have to look at his posts, you know. I've found that it's quite the useful tool.
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Poor and inadequate measures for the containment of Covid-19 lead to a devastating impact on health and the economy.
Impact to health and economy (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/26/saving-lives-or-uk-economy-from-covid-a-false-choice-mps-warn)
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Alan Goldhammer (assuming you're still here) instead of depriving us of valuable information, why don't you just block Alan Klein? You really don't have to look at his posts, you know. I've found that it's quite the useful tool.
That's the solution the left always proposes. Silence those who don't agree with your point of view.
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That's the solution the left always proposes. Silence those who don't agree with your point of view.
Silencing? John didn't suggest silencing, he suggested not listening. You're confused.
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That's the solution the left always proposes. Silence those who don't agree with your point of view.
Alan, have you noticed that ; The way you and others describe 'the left' as a solid block of opinions; the 'right' is never addressed as such?
Now lets get back on topic.
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Silencing? John didn't suggest silencing, he suggested not listening. You're confused.
Hide like an ostrich.
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That's the solution the left always proposes. Silence those who don't agree with your point of view.
And yet, that’s precisely what you did when proven wrong in the thread about Los Angeles and desertification.
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And yet, that’s precisely what you did when proven wrong in the thread about Los Angeles and desertification.
I didn't silence anyone. I made my points; others made theirs.
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Poor and inadequate measures for the containment of Covid-19 lead to a devastating impact on health and the economy.
Impact to health and economy (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/aug/26/saving-lives-or-uk-economy-from-covid-a-false-choice-mps-warn)
I do not remember now the source, but I read a few months back that in the 1918-20 pandemic, the countries who recovered economically first werethe ones that had managed the health part better.
Saving as manylives as possible isalways good, at the bare minimum from a morale perspective - people will feel safer when returning slowly to "normal" living. This will take a long time, the WHO estimates around 2 years for the effect of the virus to diminish. Going from pandemic to endemic.
Good article, thanks for sharing.
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I didn't silence anyone. I made my points; others made theirs.
Well, if people have been trying to silence you, they haven't been very successful, have they? I don't think you have anything to fear on that score.
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I do not remember now the source, but I read a few months back that in the 1918-20 pandemic, the countries who recovered economically first werethe ones that had managed the health part better.
Saving as manylives as possible isalways good, at the bare minimum from a morale perspective - people will feel safer when returning slowly to "normal" living. This will take a long time, the WHO estimates around 2 years for the effect of the virus to diminish. Going from pandemic to endemic.
Good article, thanks for sharing.
It wasn't managed very well. It lasted four years. The second year was much worse than the first year. The third was third worse but much less than the first. The fourth year was the least bad as most people did not die but only had symptoms. The dynamic American economic system is what helped us recover as we entered the Roaring Twenties despite the fact the disease had killed millions.
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Never mind the old pandemic. I just found out that Covid-19 kills more men than women.
In the public data set, the number of men who died from COVID-19 is 2.4 times that of women (70.3 vs. 29.7%, P = 0.016). In SARS patients, the gender role in mortality was also observed. The percentage of males were higher in the deceased group than in the survived group (P = 0.015).
Conclusion: While men and women have the same prevalence, men with COVID-19 are more at risk for worse outcomes and death, independent of age.
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.00152/full#:~:text=In%20the%20public%20data%20set,group%20(P%20%3D%200.015).
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Never mind the old pandemic. I just found out that Covid-19 kills more men than women.
https://www.frontiersin.org/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.00152/full#:~:text=In%20the%20public%20data%20set,group%20(P%20%3D%200.015).
There are four times as many women as men living in the assisted living facility where my 97 year old mother-in-law lives. I did a tally one day in the cafeteria where everyone was eating. I believe this is pretty much standard for these places. Since most of the COvid deaths came from people living in these type facilities, your fact that men died at a rate of 70% vs 30% for women, means that there might not be any men left in these facilities. Not that these elderly ladies notice for the most part. :)
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AiAi Infections in Europe are rising: especially in France : over 7000 new infected in a single day!
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I didn't silence anyone. I made my points; others made theirs.
But you did "hide like an ostrich."
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According to Worldometer, the US has had just over 192,000 Covid deaths and is still consistently experiencing just over 1000 per day. If these numbers stay at or near that level, the US will hit 200,000 by mid-September or so. Brazil and India are both catching up quickly with a steady 1000+ deaths per day at the moment, with Brazil at 125,000+ deaths.
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If these numbers stay at or near that level, the US will hit 200,000 by mid-September or so.
IHME are forecasting 410,000 US deaths by the end of the year.
https://covid19.healthdata.org/united-states-of-america?view=total-deaths&tab=trend
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One should be careful not to focus to much just on deaths, many who were quite sick but survive don't live very happily after.
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One should be careful not to focus to much just on deaths, many who were quite sick but survive don't live very happily after.
That's true. Since C19 leaves permanent damage on various organs, infected people could heal from the virus, but later die from heart failure, cancer or diabetes.
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That's true. Since C19 leaves permanent damage on various organs, infected people could heal from the virus, but later die from heart failure, cancer or diabetes.
We can be absolutely certain that everyone infected will die in due course; and those are undoubtedly three possible causes. I'm unaware of any evidence that late onset heart failure, cancer or diabetes can be said, or even hypothesised, to be due to Covid infection: does any exist?
Jeremy
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We can be absolutely certain that everyone infected will die in due course; and those are undoubtedly three possible causes. I'm unaware of any evidence that late onset heart failure, cancer or diabetes can be said, or even hypothesised, to be due to Covid infection: does any exist?
Jeremy
There is plenty of such evidence. Just google "long term health effects of covid 19".
Below is an excerpt of an article from Science Magazine.
The list of lingering maladies from COVID-19 is longer and more varied than most doctors could have imagined. Ongoing problems include fatigue, a racing heartbeat, shortness of breath, achy joints, foggy thinking, a persistent loss of sense of smell, and damage to the heart, lungs, kidneys, and brain.
The likelihood of a patient developing persistent symptoms is hard to pin down because different studies track different outcomes and follow survivors for different lengths of time. One group in Italy found that 87% of a patient cohort hospitalized for acute COVID-19 was still struggling 2 months later. Data from the COVID Symptom Study, which uses an app into which millions of people in the United States, United Kingdom, and Sweden have tapped their symptoms, suggest 10% to 15% of people—including some “mild” cases—don’t quickly recover. But with the crisis just months old, no one knows how far into the future symptoms will endure, and whether COVID-19 will prompt the onset of chronic diseases.
Despite the novelty of SARS-CoV-2, its long-term effects have precedents: Infections with other pathogens are associated with lasting impacts ranging from heart problems to chronic fatigue. “Medicine has been used to dealing with this problem” of acute viral illness followed by ongoing symptoms, says Michael Zandi, a neurologist at UCL. Even common illnesses such as pneumonia can mean a monthslong recovery. “I see a lot of people who had [the brain inflammation] encephalitis 3, 4 years ago, and still can’t think, or are tired,” Zandi says. Infections with certain bacteria and Zika virus, among others, are linked to Guillain-Barre syndrome, in which the immune system attacks nerve tissue, causing tingling, weakness, and paralysis.
https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/brain-fog-heart-damage-covid-19-s-lingering-problems-alarm-scientists
Even though 80 per cent of people get mild cases, 20% of people do experience more serious effects that can last for months or years and can lead to permanent disability and premature death. The research into the long term effects of the virus has barely started. We should know more about it next year.
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/laninf/article/PIIS1473-3099(20)30701-5/fulltext
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We just had a scare with my 97 year old mother-i-0law. Seems she tested positive and was isolated in her assisted living home facility. My wife was a nervous wreck. I wasn't happy either as my wife saw her just a couple of days before the test results were known. Three days later they did another test that showed her negative. They do tests on the residents once a week here in New Jersey. In any case I'm scheduled for an antibody test on Tuesday, but I feel fine.
So now they're pushing the regular flu shot. But I bet this will be the best year for the least amount of flu cases since everyone's isolating and using masks because of the Covid. I just realized that neither my wife nor I have had a common cold since this thing started six months ago. I'm sure it's because we've isolated or protected ourselves. What's been you experience with this? Maybe this is why Asians tend to live longer than us Westerners. Masks and isolation when they get sick.
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Maybe this is why Asians tend to live longer than us Westerners. Masks and isolation when they get sick.
Or maybe Asians eat a healthier diet and excersise more than the west. During my travels, I've never seen the all you can eat buffets with lineups at the troughs. I also believe the Asian culture believes in preventive medicine using natural methods than the North American chemical drugs onslaught after one gets ill.
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Interesting reporting in the New York Times by Julian Barnes and Michael Venutolo-Mantovani about the attempts by intelligence operatives reporting to China, Russia, and Iran (https://nyti.ms/2F2oAPd) to collect information about corporate and academic research into the creation of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine and the counterespionage efforts to thwart them.
The coronavirus pandemic has prompted one of the fastest peacetime mission shifts in recent times for the world’s intelligence agencies, pitting them against one another in a new grand game of spy versus spy, according to interviews with current and former intelligence officials and others tracking the espionage efforts.
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There is plenty of such evidence. Just google "long term health effects of covid 19".
Below is an excerpt of an article from Science Magazine.
The article is replete with speculation but provides no evidence to support the assertion you made. Maybe they all drink milk.
Jeremy
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Interesting reporting in the New York Times by Julian Barnes and Michael Venutolo-Mantovani about the attempts by intelligence operatives reporting to China, Russia, and Iran (https://nyti.ms/2F2oAPd) to collect information about corporate and academic research into the creation of a SARS-CoV-2 vaccine and the counterespionage efforts to thwart them.
The Chinese have been stealing us blind for years. Then selling back knockoffs to us putting our own companies out of business. Maybe they're getting even for the pasta formula the Italians stole from them.
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The Chinese have been stealing us blind for years. Then selling back knockoffs to us putting our own companies out of business. Maybe they're getting even for the pasta formula the Italians stole from them.
Well you can either blame China for their cheap knockoffs, or you can blame the American people for buying the cheap knockoffs. Sort of like drugs...blame the drug lords, or blame the people craving the drugs.
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Well you can either blame China for their cheap knockoffs, or you can blame the American people for buying the cheap knockoffs. Sort of like drugs...blame the drug lords, or blame the people craving the drugs.
Somehow you always miss the point. They stole the patents and formulas. That's the issue. They're thieves. If someone copied your photograph and sold it, you'd blame the buyer? How does anyone know its stolen?
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The article is replete with speculation but provides no evidence to support the assertion you made. Maybe they all drink milk.
Jeremy
Googling for "Covid-19 long term effects" resulted in 2,700,000,000 hits (soon over 3 billions), and I quoted only the first few links I found. Some of the other sources will provide more concrete evidence. No doubt, more group studies and observations are being done all the time, and there are also plenty of personal reports describing the lingering effects of the virus.
Personally, I will continue to do my best to minimize visiting public spaces and avoiding crowds. As to the milk, the Chinese government is indeed pushing people to drink milk to get more protein and thus allegedly increase the body immunity. That's about as effective as eating tiger penis to increase male virility.
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Somehow you always miss the point. They stole the patents and formulas. That's the issue. They're thieves. If someone copied your photograph and sold it, you'd blame the buyer? How does anyone know its stolen?
No I got the point...but if no one would buy the cheap knockoff, there would be no market. That's the point I'm getting at. The vast majority of Americans don't care if the design was ripped off...as long as it's cheap.
Put it this way. How many people own the $1,000+ American made RRS tripods versus the much cheaper versions from Asia? The people have a choice and they always vote with their wallets...not their ethics.
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From the podcast intro blurb
"Northwell Health in New York has treated more Covid-19 patients than any other hospital system in the country. CNN’s Chief Medical Correspondent Dr. Sanjay Gupta talks to Northwell CEO Michael Dowling about the important lessons his team learned throughout the crisis."
https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9vbW55LmZtL3Nob3dzL2Nvcm9uYXZpcnVzLWZhY3QtdnMtZmljdGlvbi9wbGF5bGlzdHMvcG9kY2FzdC5yc3M/episode/YjVjNGI5NzItMDkwOC00M2U5LTgwZjUtYWMyNzAxNmQxY2I0 (https://podcasts.google.com/feed/aHR0cHM6Ly9vbW55LmZtL3Nob3dzL2Nvcm9uYXZpcnVzLWZhY3QtdnMtZmljdGlvbi9wbGF5bGlzdHMvcG9kY2FzdC5yc3M/episode/YjVjNGI5NzItMDkwOC00M2U5LTgwZjUtYWMyNzAxNmQxY2I0)
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Maybe I'm being naive, but why would any country, for any reason, try to conceal the process of developing a vaccine? I personally think about 99% of "secret" stuff, classified stuff, shouldn't be, and vaccine development would certainly fall in the 99%. If the US develops a vaccine, and somebody in India "steals" it and saves a few million lives with it, more power to them. I think every step of vaccine development should be published on public forums for everybody to see and use if they can. Pretending that this is a "war" that somebody can "win" is nonsense, but not harmless nonsense.
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Competition incenticizes discovery. If you allow theft, no one would bother spending their money to develop it. If they decide to develop anyway, you'd certainly slow down the discovery time defeating what you want to accomplish. More people would die and get sick, not less.
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Another Socialist dream. Making everyone and every company equal. Everyone does nothing as there's no incentive. Then you become like Venezuela and the Soviet U union, losing your liberty as well.
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Competition incenticizes discovery. If you allow theft, no one would bother spending their money to develop it. If they decide to develop anyway, you'd certainly slow down the discovery time defeating what you want to accomplish. More people would die and get sick, not less.
What silly ideological nonsense. As if developing a vaccine against a globally dispersed virus was equivalent to competing for your grocery dollars.
Maybe every city or state or county even should develop their own strategies and vaccines, ignore worldwide medical evidence, only measure what happens in your backyard, that'll work. FFS.
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We're getting into politics which of course is impossible to avoid when you discuss policy. Same Greek root word. Poli.
In any case, feel good policy doesn't work. Competition and profit motive wil get a vaccine out a lot quicker.
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We're getting into politics which of course is impossible to avoid when you discuss policy. Same Greek root word. Poli.
In any case, feel good policy doesn't work. Competition and profit motive wil get a vaccine out a lot quicker.
Well it looks like both Russia and China have a vaccine ready...so much for your for profit is the best way always.
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Well it looks like both Russia and China have a vaccine ready...so much for your for profit is the best way always.
Both countries have free markets with billionaire owners and private companies who are rich because of capitalism and profits. If their vaccines are effective, they stand to make billions. What's your point? Russia isn't the Soviet Union and China isn't the economic China under Mao.
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Both countries have free markets with billionaire owners and private companies who are rich because of capitalism and profits. If their vaccines are effective, they stand to make billions. What's your point? Russia isn't the Soviet Union and China isn't the economic China under Mao.
Weren't you the one that brought up "another socialist dream"? If those two countries are not Socialist based, who is?
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Weren't you the one that brought up "another socialist dream"? If those two countries are not Socialist based, who is?
Russia is capitalist and more of a Plutocracy. China has some government owned industry. But even those are run for profit and the money goes to corrupt Communist party officials. The rest of the country runs more or less capitalistically and free markets since around 1990. Cuba, Venezuela, North Korea are more Socialist or Communist. But even there, there is a small group of so-called socialist at the top that steal from the country leaving everyone else poor and destitute as well a devoid of political, social and economic liberty.
I don't think you'd be happy in those latter places.
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Russia is capitalist and more of a Plutocracy. China has some government owned industry. But even those are run for profit and the money goes to corrupt Communist party officials. The rest of the country runs more or less capitalistically and free markets since around 1990. Cuba, Venezuela, North Korea are more Socialist or Communist. But even there, there is a small group of so-called socialist at the top that steal from the country leaving everyone else poor and destitute as well a devoid of political, social and economic liberty.
I don't think you'd be happy in those latter places.
I've been to Cuba numerous times. I'd have no problem living there. I'm sure your views of these places are tainted by the usual ani-Cuba propaganda that is thrown around and not by first hand experience of any kind.
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I've been to Cuba numerous times. I'd have no problem living there. I'm sure your views of these places are tainted by the usual ani-Cuba propaganda that is thrown around and not by first hand experience of any kind.
I've never been to prison either for first hand experience. But, I'd rather not be there either.
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I've never been to prison either for first hand experience. But, I'd rather not be there either.
So you equate living in Cuba as being thrown in prison. Yep...that propoganda machine is in full swing.
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So you equate living in Cuba as being thrown in prison. Yep...that propoganda machine is in full swing.
You can learn how to spell while suspended from posting. Which part of NO POLITICS do you fail to understand?
Jeremy
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We're getting into politics which of course is impossible to avoid when you discuss policy. Same Greek root word. Poli.
It's not impossible; it just requires a modicum of restraint.
Jeremy
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The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published an update today on the mortality estimates for the United States from the predictive models it is monitoring. By October 3, the models suggest, as many as 27K more Americans may die from COVID-19 infections. The prediction range is between 205,000 and 217,000 deaths (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html) compared to the 190,262 to-date that have been officially recorded (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases). For most reporting states and territories, the death rate remains high but stable.
- This week CDC received forecasts of national COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks from 39 modeling groups. Of the 39 groups, 33 provided forecasts for both new and total deaths, four groups forecasted total deaths only, and two forecasted new deaths only.
- This week’s national ensemble forecast indicates an uncertain trend in new COVID-19 deaths reported over the next four weeks and predicts that 3,300 to 8,000 new deaths will likely be reported during the week ending October 3, 2020. The national ensemble predicts that a total of 205,000 to 217,000 COVID-19 deaths will be reported by this date.
- The state- and territory-level ensemble forecasts predict that over the next 4 weeks, the number of newly reported deaths per week may increase in 1 jurisdiction and decrease in 10 jurisdictions, which are indicated in the forecast plots below. Trends in numbers of future reported deaths are uncertain or predicted to remain stable in the other states and territories.
These estimates appear to be for deaths directly attributable to the SARS-CoV-2 virus, not the "excess death" estimates that are computed months after the fact based on historical data. The excess-death figures typically are significantly higher.
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The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention published an update today on the mortality estimates for the United States from the predictive models it is monitoring. By October 3, the models suggest, as many as 27K more Americans may die from COVID-19 infections. The prediction range is between 205,000 and 217,000 deaths (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/covid-data/forecasting-us.html) compared to the 190,262 to-date that have been officially recorded (https://covid.cdc.gov/covid-data-tracker/#cases). For most reporting states and territories, the death rate remains high but stable.
These estimates appear to be for deaths directly attributable to the SARS-CoV-2 virus, not the "excess death" estimates that are computed months after the fact based on historical data. The excess-death figures typically are significantly higher.
I think this is a conservative estimate. We're at almost 192,000 today, the 11th of September. I believe we'll be close to the upper range of these models, if not higher.
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Although it could be framed by some as political, this is a nice and well-founded summary by a science reporter (neither Democratic nor Republican, he comes from the UK) of the World Health Organization's role in disseminating information. This may become more relevant as disinformation on the internet is likely to increase in the coming months.
World Health Organization: Bad guy or fall guy?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qf_7nZdIYoI
I expect reactions to this post to uphold the standards of this thread, and be factual and based on science or other credible evidence (either 'pro' or 'con').
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Over 200,000 US deaths so far. 1081 deaths just today.
In contrast, Canada's total deaths amount to 9183 with 5 fatalities today.
Both numbers, total and daily counts, translate into 20 times more deaths in USA than in Canada (taking into consideration that USA has roughly 10 times as many citizens.
Why are the US numbers so high and who are the typical victims? Workers, beach partyers, bar patrons, sport fans. seniors, school kids?
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In Portugal, the 7 day average for new cases is around 500 and something, with 7 day average for deaths around 4.
I think we will get back to March-April averages (700 or 800), but with much lower death toll. Majority of new cases are younger ages. Seems similar to other countries being under the 2nd wave.
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Although it could be framed by some as political, this is a nice and well-founded summary by a science reporter (neither Democratic nor Republican, he comes from the UK) of the World Health Organization's role in disseminating information. This may become more relevant as disinformation on the internet is likely to increase in the coming months.
World Health Organization: Bad guy or fall guy?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qf_7nZdIYoI
I expect reactions to this post to uphold the standards of this thread, and be factual and based on science or other credible evidence (either 'pro' or 'con').
Thanks Bart! Very interesting!
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Interesting animation addressing the math of mask wearing https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y47t9qLc9I4 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y47t9qLc9I4).
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Interesting animation addressing the math of mask wearing https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y47t9qLc9I4 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y47t9qLc9I4).
+1
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Interesting animation addressing the math of mask wearing https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y47t9qLc9I4 (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Y47t9qLc9I4).
+2
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My thanks to Bart and Robert for posting the informative videos. Here is video from Science Magazine regarding the effects of Covid-19 on the entire body.
https://www.youtube.com/The coronavirus’ rampage through the body (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-0e6qziKNh4)
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I also believe the Asian culture believes in preventive medicine using natural methods than the North American chemical drugs onslaught after one gets ill.
Yes, that Asian culture believes in using things like pangolin scales, shark fins, etc as medicine. There's no scientific basis for any of their "natural methods" and quite simply, they don't work.
What Asian cultures have done better, in the places that have succeeded, is follow directions to wear masks and socially isolate. Asian cultures have better accepted the restrictions on their freedoms than have Americans. Asian cultures appear to better understand the benefit of collective action whereas Amercians are too caught up in individualism.
Asian cultures also distrust the government more (due to corruption), meaning that they've assumed it is worse than the government has let on.
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Personally, I will continue to do my best to minimize visiting public spaces and avoiding crowds. As to the milk, the Chinese government is indeed pushing people to drink milk to get more protein and thus allegedly increase the body immunity. That's about as effective as eating tiger penis to increase male virility.
There is a body of evidence from people that have caught COVID-19 that suggests lower levels of vitamin D leads to more severe cases. Buying milk with vitamin D supplements is an effective way of supplementing your vitamin D levels.
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There is a body of evidence from people that have caught COVID-19 that suggests lower levels of vitamin D leads to more severe cases. Buying milk with vitamin D supplements is an effective way of supplementing your vitamin D levels.
That is the widely circulated recommendation, but the latest evidence suggests otherwise.
Milk and dairy products are pro-inflammatory and mucus producing. Milk increases the risks of respiratory conditions and allergies. It has been linked to the development of arthritis due to joints becoming inflamed. Remember, our bodies are not designed to naturally tolerate animal derived protein, and seeing it as foreign invaders jolts the immune system to overreact in order to protect.
Another research study published from the Harvard School for Public Health showed that in countries with less than 300 mg of calcium intake daily, osteoporosis rates were quite low. (https://www.hsph.harvard.edu/nutritionsource/calcium-full-story/ ). America has one of the highest consumption of dairy, yet one of the highest rates of osteoporosis. Excess calcium needs to excreted and the kidneys bear the load, which in turn contributes to the formation of kidney stones, which have a calcium composition.
A glass of milk also contains acidic animal protein that leeches calcium from the bones, pus cells, feces components, bovine growth hormone, antibiotics, and a whole lot of unnecessary fat, cholesterol and calories — all of which create a terrible imbalance in the body. Disease and cancer thrive in acidity. By eliminating dairy and other animal protein such as meats from the diet, an alkaline environment is created. Alkalinity perpetuates a “zen” atmosphere in the body.
https://www.synergistiqhealth.com/fallacy-milk-body-good/
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That is the widely circulated recommendation, but the latest evidence suggests otherwise.
https://www.synergistiqhealth.com/fallacy-milk-body-good/
You should read the about page:
https://www.synergistiqhealth.com/about-us/
If you're going to be anti-milk, please get your data from a reliable source rather than the above. Government sources and refereed journal references would be good.
As for milk being acidic, please do better research:
https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22081694/
And yes, considering humans have only been around for ~300,000 years, we've only been drinking cows milk for 1-2% of that period of time. Some people are lactose intolerant so that won't work very well for them. As it is, that's probably the oldest form of digesting extra vitamin D as we've only been got a few mere decades of swallowing supplement pills and who knows what they really put in those pills, right?
The choices:
1) Do nothing, take whatever happens if you get COVID-19
2) Drink milk with vitamin D supplements, keeping in mind that humans have only been drinking milk for a few thousand years and haven't yet fully adapted to it
3) Take vitamin D in pills, knowing full well that pills contain many other substances besides the vitamins and that we've only putting them in the body for a few decades
4) Go out into the sun, without any sunscreen, to promote vitamin D generation through sunlight on the skin. This also carries with it coincident risk of skin cancer and melanomas.
Feel free to choose (1).
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I wouldn’t get caught too much in the vit D thing. Medicine is full of examples when we find in various diseases that different elements are decreased, however replacing them does not change the outcomes. The reasons for this are multiple, and include the element being just an innocent bystander, the result of the underlying process and not the culprit, and so on. Maybe those people had normal levels before the disease, for example.
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Interesting study of Canada's Covid experience https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/public-health-agency-of-canada-covid-19-statistics-1.5733069 (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/public-health-agency-of-canada-covid-19-statistics-1.5733069).
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Changing Age Distribution of the COVID-19 Pandemic — United States, May–August 2020
CDC Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report (MMWR) - September 23, 2020
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/Changing Age Distribution of the COVID-19 Pandemic (https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6939e1.htm)
Summary
What is already known about this topic?
Early in the pandemic, COVID-19 incidence was highest among older adults.
What is added by this report?
During June–August 2020, COVID-19 incidence was highest in persons aged 20–29 years, who accounted for >20% of all confirmed cases. Younger adults likely contribute to community transmission of COVID-19. Across the southern United States in June 2020, increases in percentage of positive SARS-CoV-2 test results among adults aged 20–39 years preceded increases among those aged ≥60 years by 4–15 days.
What are the implications for public health practice?
Strict adherence to community mitigation strategies and personal preventive behaviors by younger adults is needed to help reduce infection and subsequent transmission to persons at higher risk for severe illness.
"This report provides preliminary evidence that younger adults contributed to community transmission of COVID-19 to older adults. Across the southern United States in June 2020, the increase in SARS-CoV-2 infection among younger adults preceded the increase among older adults by 4–15 days (or approximately one to three incubation periods). Similar observations have been reported by the World Health Organization. Further investigation of community transmission dynamics across age groups to identify factors that might be driving infection among younger adults and subsequent transmission to older adults is warranted."
"These findings have important clinical and public health implications. First, occupational and behavioral factors might put younger adults at higher risk for exposure to SARS-CoV-2. Younger adults make up a large proportion of workers in frontline occupations (e.g., retail stores, public transit, child care, and social services) and highly exposed industries (e.g., restaurants/bars, entertainment, and personal services), where consistent implementation of prevention strategies might be difficult or not possible. In addition, younger adults might also be less likely to follow community mitigation strategies, such as social distancing and avoiding group gatherings. Second, younger adults, who are more likely to have mild or no symptoms, can unknowingly contribute to presymptomatic or asymptomatic transmission to others, including to persons at higher risk for severe illness. Finally, SARS-CoV-2 infection is not benign in younger adults, especially among those with underlying medical conditions, who are at risk for hospitalization, severe illness, and death."
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Yes, that Asian culture believes in using things like pangolin scales, shark fins, etc as medicine. There's no scientific basis for any of their "natural methods" and quite simply, they don't work.
What Asian cultures have done better, in the places that have succeeded, is follow directions to wear masks and socially isolate. Asian cultures have better accepted the restrictions on their freedoms than have Americans. Asian cultures appear to better understand the benefit of collective action whereas Amercians are too caught up in individualism.
Asian cultures also distrust the government more (due to corruption), meaning that they've assumed it is worse than the government has let on.
Asian culture believes in preventive medicine or lifestyles and when needed they rely on other forms of medicine like acupuncture and tai chi to release stress and pain rather than uppers / downers and pain killers that are running rampant in western societies...resulting in drug dependencies leading to street drugs and overdoses.
Lots of vegetables, little meat and always prepared fresh is the Asian culture...contrast that to the lineups at McDonalds and the all you can eat bars in America.
Health starts by what one does ( sit on your ass watching stupid comedy on TV or practice tai chi ) and what one eats ( fresh vegetables and fruits or processed packages from the microwave ) ... Not strictly the pills one pops in order to make it through the day.
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'Close to 100% accuracy': Helsinki airport uses sniffer dogs to detect Covid (link below)
extract: Scientists are not yet sure what exactly it is that the dogs sniff when they detect the virus. A French study published in June concluded that there was “very high evidence” that the sweat odour of Covid-positive people was different to that of those who did not have the virus, and that dogs could detect that difference.
Dogs are also able to identify Covid-19 from a much smaller molecular sample than PCR tests, Helsinki airport said, needing only 10-100 molecules to detect the presence of the virus compared with the 18m needed by laboratory equipment.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/24/close-to-100-accuracy-airport-enlists-sniffer-dogs-to-test-for-covid-19?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other
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'Close to 100% accuracy': Helsinki airport uses sniffer dogs to detect Covid (http://url=https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/sep/24/close-to-100-accuracy-airport-enlists-sniffer-dogs-to-test-for-covid-19?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other)
Link not working for me.
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Link not working for me.
Try this one (https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-54288067) (from the BBC).
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Link not working for me.
fixed (sort of), link at bottom of post.
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'Close to 100% accuracy': Helsinki airport uses sniffer dogs to detect Covid (link below)
Interesting. The BBC quotes the woman as claiming near 100% sensitivity. That's only half of "accuracy"; specificity is enormously more important in a screening test and isn't specifically mentioned. Since the prevalence of the virus is likely to be low among the screened population, even a very high specificity will give the test a poor positive predictive value.
Jeremy
[edit: corrected spelling of "specificity" in first line]
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Interesting. The BBC quotes the woman as claiming near 100% sensitivity. That's only half of "accuracy"; specify is enormously more important in a screening test and isn't specifically mentioned. Since the prevalence of the virus is likely to be low among the screened population, even a very high specificity will give the test a poor positive predictive value.
Sounds pretty neat, but is it really practical. How many dogs do we need to sniff 330 million people? Drive through dog sniffings? Which will occur first, herd immunity with help from vaccines or trained dogs?
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The very idea of "sniffer dogs" is suspect. Aren't ALL dogs "sniffer" dogs?
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Okay, here is something I haven't considered before.
Up to Half a Million Sharks Could Be Killed to Produce Coronavirus Vaccine, Warn Conservationists
https://sputniknews.com/science/202009281080598544-up-to-half-a-million-sharks-could-be-killed-to-produce-coronavirus-vaccine-warn-conservationists/
Keep in mind the source.
Still, where are they going to get half a million sharks?
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Still, where are they going to get half a million sharks?
(Law schools?)
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A good explanation of the difference between the Case Fatality Rate (CFR) and the Infection Fatality Rate (IFR).
The difference between Case Fatality Rate and Infection Fatality Rate.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=eAB43K2gtOk
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I saw there was some confusion here about how long a person infected with Covid-19 is still infectious.
Here are the CDC recommendations: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/duration-isolation.html
If some are too lazy to read here's the summary:
Duration of isolation and precautions
For most persons with COVID-19 illness, isolation and precautions can generally be discontinued 10 days after symptom onset1 and resolution of fever for at least 24 hours, without the use of fever-reducing medications, and with improvement of other symptoms.
A limited number of persons with severe illness may produce replication-competent virus beyond 10 days that may warrant extending duration of isolation and precautions for up to 20 days after symptom onset; consider consultation with infection control experts.
For persons who never develop symptoms, isolation and other precautions can be discontinued 10 days after the date of their first positive RT-PCR test for SARS-CoV-2 RNA.
Currently in my hospital we give them 2 weeks in isolation for most cases, or 3 weeks for the severe cases (most that I see) even if they still are quite sick.
You can make your own math of when somebody got the first positive test/symptoms based on when they are declared noninfectious, if that's true of course ;)
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Latest stats show that there are 20% more deaths in US than expected this year, 67% of them due to C19, the rest to other health issues, lockdowns and many unplanned disruptions.
During the coronavirus pandemic so far, there were 20 per cent more deaths than would normally be expected from March 1 through August 1 in the United States -- with COVID-19 officially accounting for about two-thirds of them, according to new research published Monday in the medical journal JAMA.
"Although total U.S. death counts are remarkably consistent from year to year, US deaths increased by 20 per cent during March-July 2020," according to the research, authored by Dr. Steven Woolf and colleagues at the Virginia Commonwealth University School of Medicine and the Yale School of Public Health. "COVID-19 was a documented cause of only 67 per cent of these excess deaths," the researchers wrote.
The researchers analyzed death data from the National Center for Health Statistics and the US Census Bureau. Overall, there were 1,336,561 deaths in the United States between March 1 and August 1, 2020, the study found -- marking a 20 per cent increase compared with what would normally be expected.
"Some people who never had the virus may have died because of disruptions caused by the pandemic," Woolf added. "These include people with acute emergencies, chronic diseases like diabetes that were not properly care for, or emotional crises that led to overdoses or suicides."
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/u-s-sees-20-per-cent-more-deaths-than-expected-this-year-most-due-to-covid-19-research-finds-1.5142198
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I think some of those extra deaths were from the stress caused by discussing Covid 19 on social media like LuLa. :)
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I think some of those extra deaths were from the stress caused by discussing Covid 19 on social media like LuLa. :)
And some heart attacks caused by watching Trump on TV.
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One example of how easily this virus spreads when people are in close contact for extended periods of time. At a meat packing plant in Utah with 1,495 employees, 441 employees have been infected and one has died.
New report confirms 1 dead, 441 employees sick due to COVID-19 at JBS plant in Hyrum
https://www.abc4.com/news/new-report-confirms-1-dead-441-employees-sick-due-to-covid-19-at-jbs-plant-in-hyrum/ (https://www.abc4.com/news/new-report-confirms-1-dead-441-employees-sick-due-to-covid-19-at-jbs-plant-in-hyrum/)
"A new report confirms one person is dead and 441 employees were infected after the COVID-19 outbreak at the JBS meat-packing plant in Hyrum. That new case count is nearly one hundred more people than what was originally reported."
"According to a report done by the Utah Occupational Safety and Health Division, or OSHA, as of June 16, one employee at JBS died due to the virus, the finalized number of infected employees is 441. There are 1,495 workers at this plant."
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One example of how easily this virus spreads when people are in close contact for extended periods of time. At a meat packing plant in Utah with 1,495 employees, 441 employees have been infected and one has died.
New report confirms 1 dead, 441 employees sick due to COVID-19 at JBS plant in Hyrum
https://www.abc4.com/news/new-report-confirms-1-dead-441-employees-sick-due-to-covid-19-at-jbs-plant-in-hyrum/ (https://www.abc4.com/news/new-report-confirms-1-dead-441-employees-sick-due-to-covid-19-at-jbs-plant-in-hyrum/)
"A new report confirms one person is dead and 441 employees were infected after the COVID-19 outbreak at the JBS meat-packing plant in Hyrum. That new case count is nearly one hundred more people than what was originally reported."
"According to a report done by the Utah Occupational Safety and Health Division, or OSHA, as of June 16, one employee at JBS died due to the virus, the finalized number of infected employees is 441. There are 1,495 workers at this plant."
What about the meat they touched that was frozen and sent to us?
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What about the meat they touched that was frozen and sent to us?
Luckily for you you should not change your behavior, cook it well and wash your hands after you touch raw meat. That's how it have been since before Covid.
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Luckily for you you should not change your behavior, cook it well and wash your hands after you touch raw meat. That's how it have been since before Covid.
With chicken I wash my hands and the counter with soap and water. With meat, I might rinse them and keep cooking. Depends. The cutting board gets washed with soap and water.
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Luckily for you you should not change your behavior, cook it well and wash your hands after you touch raw meat. That's how it have been since before Covid.
If you ever toured a meat packing plant, a little coronavirus on your meat would be the last thing you'd be worried about. For God's sake man, have you seen how that moocow that was coming down along the road became ground beef on a styrofoam tray? Yikes! I think I read that the poultry slaughtering machine in one swift move actually turns the carcass inside out. Holy ass over teacups, Batman! And what about Thanksgiving? Surely you remember that video of Sara Palin cutting the heads off live turkeys with that spinning blade contraption? I'll stick with the mashed potatoes thank you very much.
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If you ever toured a meat packing plant, a little coronavirus on your meat would be the last thing you'd be worried about. For God's sake man, have you seen how that moocow that was coming down along the road became ground beef on a styrofoam tray? Yikes! I think I read that the poultry slaughtering machine actually turns the carcass inside out. Holy moly!
Never tour the kitchen in the restaurant you're eating in. You really don't want to know. :o
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Was sent a very informative video with Dr. Weiss discussing second virus wave, comparison with Spanish flu and SARS, realistic timelines for vaccines and required measures to prevent more spread of Covid19 in Canada. The whole video lasts 18 minutes, but if you want to see only his assessment of when the pandemic will end, watch just the last 90 seconds (he projects 3 more years).
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SYuF-D8Nzm0&feature=youtu.be
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European Covid-19 infections to date.
(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/50496661023_acb7b772b4_c.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/2jWdA3B)
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European Covid-19 infections to date.
A comparable graphic for the United States (screen capture attached). The New York Times has an excellent interactive tool (https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/us/coronavirus-us-cases.html) which allows readers to toggle among displays of "Hot Spots", "Total Cases", "Deaths", and "Per Capita" COVID-19 cases in each of the states and Puerto Rico, and to zoom in for a closer look.
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Now, even at a yodel fest in Switzerland.
The coronavirus pandemic has not deterred the Swiss from sending yodels echoing across their mountain valleys, but a concert attended by 600 people is believed to have made one canton a European virus hotspot. At the late September yodelling event in the rural Schwyz canton, people in the audience were asked to maintain social distancing, but mask-wearing was not required.
"We can't do anything about what happened with this yodelling group. We found out nine days after the performances that several people from the group were infected,"
https://www.ctvnews.ca/health/coronavirus/finger-pointed-at-swiss-yodelling-superspreader-concert-1.5147024
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Excess Deaths Associated with COVID-19, by Age and Race and Ethnicity — United States, January 26–October 3, 2020
https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm?s_cid=mm6942e2_x
What is added by this report?
Overall, an estimated 299,028 excess deaths occurred from late January through October 3, 2020, with 198,081 (66%) excess deaths attributed to COVID-19. The largest percentage increases were seen among adults aged 25–44 years and among Hispanic or Latino persons.
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1224 covid deaths in USA on Oct 21. More than India (703) and Russia (317) combined.
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1224 covid deaths in USA on Oct 21. More than India (703) and Russia (317) combined.
Do you really believe the numbers out of Russia and India? In India, people die on the street all the time, no one knows from what. They're are a tightly populated one billion plus country with people living on top of each other. Do you believe it's not worse and spreading like wildfire? Putin the ex-KBG chief is probably hiding the real figures like they tried to hide Chernobyl.
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PS: Thanks for throwing me a softball.
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Do you really believe the numbers out of Russia and India? In India, people die on the street all the time, no one knows from what. They're are a tightly populated one billion plus country with people living on top of each other. Do you believe it's not worse and spreading like wildfire? Putin the ex-KBG chief is probably hiding the real figures like they tried to hide Chernobyl.
You could be right about the unofficial death counts in Russia and India.
Still, how do you explain that a developed nation like USA has so many covid deaths? The US leader said just a couple of days ago that USA is rounding the corner.
OTOH, somewhere I read that some of the underdeveloped countries started to inflate their covid numbers in order to obtain higher financial WHO aid.
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Do you really believe the numbers out of Russia and India?
Fair point: the Russian government probably has a propaganda motivation to under-report deaths from COVID-19 and the Indian government probably isn't able to generate accurate statistics on a nationwide basis.
However, even though there no doubt are significant differences in their methodologies, I think it probably is reasonable to compare death rates in the United States, Europe, and a number of Asian countries (certainly Australia, New Zealand, South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand, and even China).
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You could be right about the unofficial death counts in Russia and India.
Still, how do you explain that a developed nation like USA has so many covid deaths? The US leader said just a couple of days ago that USA is rounding the corner.
OTOH, somewhere I read that some of the underdeveloped countries started to inflate their covid numbers in order to obtain higher financial WHO aid.
We should raise our numbers too. With all the money we're printing, we need a bailout from WHO as well.
The relatively high numbers in the US are bad because of the disease and how we were hit originally. It is a very infectious disease. NY and NJ where I live got hit hard in the beginning. Since then the disease has spread because it infects people who meet other people. People refuse to isolate totally. That's what's happening in Europe now. Why is it happening again there if everyone's so knowledgeable about what to do to lessen its spread? I don't think there's much difference between Europe and the US except timing. Now it's Europe's turn, again.
I'd like to study China and other Asian countries to see what they're doing. That's more intriguing. Of course, with regimes where the population looks to national leadership almost religiously, it's easier to get people to comply with rules. Americans, with Europeans less so, are too damned independent. It works well for entrepreneurship and our other liberties. But it can be harmful in situations like Covid.
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We should raise our numbers too. With all the money we're printing, we need a bailout from WHO as well.
The relatively high numbers in the US are bad because of the disease and how we were hit originally. It is a very infectious disease. NY and NJ where I live got hit hard in the beginning. Since then the disease has spread because it infects people who meet other people. People refuse to isolate totally. That's what's happening in Europe now. Why is it happening again there if everyone's so knowledgeable about what to do to lessen its spread? I don't think there's much difference between Europe and the US except timing. Now it's Europe's turn, again.
I'd like to study China and other Asian countries to see what they're doing. That's more intriguing. Of course, with regimes where the population looks to national leadership almost religiously, it's easier to get people to comply with rules. Americans, with Europeans less so, are too damned independent. It works well for entrepreneurship and our other liberties. But it can be harmful in situations like Covid.
Maybe too independent. Recent survey in Germany revealed that 87% of population support mandatory mask wearing and social distancing. Some health clinics are assisted by the army for tracing the infections. In the new infection cases, Germany is doing relatively well, many surrounding countries not so.
BTW, Bill Gates said that C19 disruptions will extend beyond 2021, so we are not rounding the corner, the worst is yet to come.
https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/coronavirus-news-am-freitag-die-wichtigsten-entwicklungen-zu-sars-cov-2-und-covid-19-a-cea13b69-3aa5-4fe7-a2cd-3a8d5e6c163e
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I read yesterday that it's estimated that 50% of Europe's small businesses will go out of business. That 87% figure might not hold.
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I read yesterday that it's estimated that 50% of Europe's small businesses will go out of business. That 87% figure might not hold.
50% is an exaggeration. If anything, US small business closures will be higher than the European ones, main reason being that because the legal requirements to form a company in USA are much easier than in many European countries, there are many more restaurants, real-estate offices, department stores, and hair salons in USA than in Europe. Actually too many to make them profitable even in non-pandemic times.
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Situation on Oct 29, 2020: Not rounding the corner, but situation worsening everywhere:
New global cases - over half a million
91,300 new cases and 1047 deaths in USA
2,956 new cases in and 42 deaths in Canada
Over 200,000 new cases in Europe
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Great Barrington Declaration (https://gbdeclaration.org)
"As infectious disease epidemiologists and public health scientists we have grave concerns about the damaging physical and mental health impacts of the prevailing COVID-19 policies, and recommend an approach we call Focused Protection."
Interesting read of scientist who think we should be conducting lockdowns and instead should be focusing on mitigation and protecting the vulnerable while allowing others to get back to a normal.
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About a competing petition and the need for consensus: https://www.medpagetoday.com/blogs/vinay-prasad/89177?xid=nl_secondopinion_2020-10-20&eun=g370325d0r
Unfortunately when you start with lies and politicize everything you throw away the trust needed to get a consensus.
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About a competing petition and the need for consensus: https://www.medpagetoday.com/blogs/vinay-prasad/89177?xid=nl_secondopinion_2020-10-20&eun=g370325d0r
Unfortunately when you start with lies and politicize everything you throw away the trust needed to get a consensus.
Sometimes when you think something has an either/or solution, you don't make the right choice regardless of which you choose. When you have an either/or choice, everyone seems to stop thinking. You know, like when you are trying to decide between a Nikon and a Canon, you don't realize that a Fuji is the best choice for you.
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About a competing petition and the need for consensus: https://www.medpagetoday.com/blogs/vinay-prasad/89177?xid=nl_secondopinion_2020-10-20&eun=g370325d0r
Unfortunately when you start with lies and politicize everything you throw away the trust needed to get a consensus.
So in essence, your article states both ideas are flawed. The question, from my point of view, is which why to lean.
I think you already know my pick. Keeping this going is hurting us more then not. Plus, "those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
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So in essence, your article states both ideas are flawed. The question, from my point of view, is which why to lean.
I think you already know my pick. Keeping this going is hurting us more then not. Plus, "those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety."
The article suggests that the two contrasting opinions are too limited in outlook and narrow in approach and favors a more balanced consideration of the issues based on the existing circumstances and locality. Balance is usually a good thing and often difficult to achieve under rapidly changing conditions.
The balance between liberty and safety is an interesting topic. At those times when a person is concerned for their safety, they are less likely to be philosophically considering their current liberty or lack thereof. Here's a link to an interesting discussion of the Franklin quote and the context in which he made it...
https://www.npr.org/2015/03/02/390245038/ben-franklins-famous-liberty-safety-quote-lost-its-context-in-21st-century (https://www.npr.org/2015/03/02/390245038/ben-franklins-famous-liberty-safety-quote-lost-its-context-in-21st-century)
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The article suggests that the two contrasting opinions are too limited in outlook and narrow in approach and favors a more balanced consideration of the issues based on the existing circumstances and locality. Balance is usually a good thing and often difficult to achieve under rapidly changing conditions.
The balance between liberty and safety is an interesting topic. At those times when a person is concerned for their safety, they are less likely to be philosophically considering their current liberty or lack thereof. Here's a link to an interesting discussion of the Franklin quote and the context in which he made it...
https://www.npr.org/2015/03/02/390245038/ben-franklins-famous-liberty-safety-quote-lost-its-context-in-21st-century (https://www.npr.org/2015/03/02/390245038/ben-franklins-famous-liberty-safety-quote-lost-its-context-in-21st-century)
It's a sad truth, but most people are cowards unfortunately.
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I might add, the fact is, that there is nothing you can do about this except delay the inevitable. That's hit. The majority of us are going to get this, and best we let that happen while protecting the vulnerable.
Countries that have been touted as success stories are now being hit hard, such as Germany and France. Italy enacted a mandatory mask mandate even outdoors and recently went back on a lockdown. They are getting walloped right now.
I know for some people, I am guessing you and Armond, the idea that you can not do anything with certain things and, more often then not, trying to do something makes it worse is a very hard concept to accept. But accept it you must.
There is nothing we can do except let it burn through the population, as it will regardless, while isolating the elderly and vulnerable.
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I might add, the fact is, that there is nothing you can do about this except delay the inevitable. That's hit. The majority of us are going to get this, and best we let that happen while protecting the vulnerable.
Countries that have been touted as success stories are now being hit hard, such as Germany and France. Italy enacted a mandatory mask mandate even outdoors and recently went back on a lockdown. They are getting walloped right now.
I know for some people, I am guessing you and Armond, the idea that you can not do anything with certain things and, more often then not, trying to do something makes it worse is a very hard concept to accept. But accept it you must.
There is nothing we can do except let it burn through the population, as it will regardless, while isolating the elderly and vulnerable.
Beside misspelling my name, don’t put words or actions in my mouth. You have no idea what every possibility will lead to yet you pretend otherwise.
Your choices are yours but don’t think that they are the right choices for the others, or as a matter of policy. There are many options.
I left the other discussions because most were not interested in discussing but in proving the others are wrong, while missing elementary knowledge of facts. I would rather keep this thread focused on data and scientific approach and not on personal opinions based on on nothing but gut feelings and such.
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I might add, the fact is, that there is nothing you can do about this except delay the inevitable.
The thing is it is inevitable that we are all going to die, so each of us has to make his own decision whether to run the red light or not. If you choose to run the red light, you should be prepared to accept the consequences, whether that means getting killed or killing someone else or getting thrown in jail for negligent homicide or just getting a ticket. You have indicated that you have chosen not to wear a mask, and you have given us a laundry list of rationalizations about why that is the best choice for you. Fine. Why do you have to keep bludgeoning us over the head with your choice and the reasons therefore? That is the fairly common behavior for someone who has doubts about his decision and thinks that if he keeps saying it over and over, he might be able to actually convince himself it that is the right choice.
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Beside misspelling my name, don’t put words or actions in my mouth. You have no idea what every possibility will lead to yet you pretend otherwise.
Your choices are yours but don’t think that they are the right choices for the others, or as a matter of policy. There are many options.
I left the other discussions because most were not interested in discussing but in proving the others are wrong, while missing elementary knowledge of facts. I would rather keep this thread focused on data and scientific approach and not on personal opinions based on on nothing but gut feelings and such.
I am fine with allowing each to pick their own choices, but you, nor anyone else, have no right to pick my choices for me. This I can live by, but the moment you start pushing more lock downs, I will fight.
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It's a sad truth, but most people are cowards unfortunately.
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I am fine with allowing each to pick their own choices, but you, nor anyone else, have no right to pick my choices for me. This I can live by, but the moment you start pushing more lock downs, I will fight.
Ah, yes. John Wayne was a hero. He would charge 50 men across an open field towards a machine gun and the two men left would capture it.
The cowards would go around the outside and take it out without loss of life.
I think the real heroes are the ones with enough guts to protect their family, their parents, and their grandparents.
Yes, some if not most countries that have had lockdowns have had second waves, but they are usually localised.
We had one really bad state out of 8 states and territories in Australia.
But to date we have 1 case per 1000 people and one death per 25,000 people. It is almost normal now.
The US has 1 case per about 40 people and one death per about 1400 to date and the current rate is higher than it ever was.
Enjoy your choice.
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Beside misspelling my name, don’t put words or actions in my mouth. You have no idea what every possibility will lead to yet you pretend otherwise.
Your choices are yours but don’t think that they are the right choices for the others, or as a matter of policy. There are many options.
I left the other discussions because most were not interested in discussing but in proving the others are wrong, while missing elementary knowledge of facts. I would rather keep this thread focused on data and scientific approach and not on personal opinions based on on nothing but gut feelings and such.
Joe and everyone else are entitled to their opinions. There's no point of having a forum if all you want to do is regurgitate opinions of others, scientists or not. Just read the journals.
In any case, they have differing opinions as well. Are you going to decide who's right? What credentials do you have to make those choices? It seems you want to silence those you disagree with who don;t mimic your beliefs. Considering the trouble Europe is having again, the experts have been wrong and their methods have not controlled the virus. So joe's opinions are as valid as anyone else's.
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Ah, yes. John Wayne was a hero. He would charge 50 men across an open field towards a machine gun and the two men left would capture it.
The cowards would go around the outside and take it out without loss of life.
I think the real heroes are the ones with enough guts to protect their family, their parents, and their grandparents.
Yes, some if not most countries that have had lockdowns have had second waves, but they are usually localised.
We had one really bad state out of 8 states and territories in Australia.
But to date we have 1 case per 1000 people and one death per 25,000 people. It is almost normal now.
The US has 1 case per about 40 people and one death per about 1400 to date and the current rate is higher than it ever was.
Enjoy your choice.
Protecting your family means feeding them. We all have to find a balance between protection and getting on with life. I'm 75 and protect myself a lot. But I still take chances by going out to stores, doctors, shooting my camera, walking, hiking, getting a ice cream cone, etc. rather than staying at home 100% of the time. We have to live too. Having to pick one or the other is a false choice. We can do both.
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But I still take chances by going out to stores, doctors, shooting my camera, walking, hiking, getting a ice cream cone, etc. rather than staying at home 100% of the time. We have to live too. Having to pick one or the other is a false choice. We can do both.
We have all done that. We just aren't protesting in the street and attending rallies. Most people have worked from home, social distanced and worn a mask on the very rare times we need to.
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Joe and everyone else are entitled to their opinions. There's no point of having a forum if all you want to do is regurgitate opinions of others, scientists or not. Just read the journals.
In any case, they have differing opinions as well. Are you going to decide who's right? What credentials do you have to make those choices? It seems you want to silence those you disagree with who don;t mimic your beliefs. Considering the trouble Europe is having again, the experts have been wrong and their methods have not controlled the virus. So joe's opinions are as valid as anyone else's.
That may depend on what you mean by “valid”.
I don’t know what you did for a living, thermostats or fire alarms or something. I don’t know the first thing about thermostats or fire alarms. I mean I could read up about it on Google, but if someone asked me my opinion, I would say go talk to you, your opinion on thermostats and fire alarms is more valid than mine, even though I can read stuff on Google as well as the next guy. But then maybe I don’t know what valid means. Even though you might think Joe’s opinion on coronavirus and coronavirus response is valid, I am going to look to someone with more education, training, and experience for advice on the subject. If your wife catches coronavirus, are you really going to tell her that Joe said you didn’t have to wear a mask, oops, sorry about that, his opinion is as valid as anybody else’s?
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Joe and everyone else are entitled to their opinions. There's no point of having a forum if all you want to do is regurgitate opinions of others, scientists or not. Just read the journals.
In any case, they have differing opinions as well. Are you going to decide who's right? What credentials do you have to make those choices? It seems you want to silence those you disagree with who don;t mimic your beliefs. Considering the trouble Europe is having again, the experts have been wrong and their methods have not controlled the virus. So joe's opinions are as valid as anyone else's.
This reply is so lame that I shouldn't even bother but I'll answer one more time, maybe you can leave this topic alone. I don't "regurgitate" journals. This is so demeaning yet it expresses very well the assault on science. By denigrating the science you are trying to make your "opinion" as valid as others, but that ship has sailed long ago.
You can have your opinions on the other thread. Oh wait, it's closed now. That's why you come here. As for my credentials, you have none so I win by default if that is what you are going for. But as I've been educated in the medical field and practiced for a lot more years than your Google searches, not to mention that I actually deal with sick Covid patients on a regular basis, I think I know a thing or two about this.
Bottom line, unless you want to talk about the science of Covid, it will be preferable to use another avenue for your opinions. You cycle through them so often that I know them all by now even if I gave up long ago on having an actual dialogue.
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That may depend on what you mean by “valid”.
I don’t know what you did for a living, thermostats or fire alarms or something. I don’t know the first thing about thermostats or fire alarms. I mean I could read up about it on Google, but if someone asked me my opinion, I would say go talk to you, your opinion on thermostats and fire alarms is more valid than mine, even though I can read stuff on Google as well as the next guy. But then maybe I don’t know what valid means. Even though you might think Joe’s opinion on coronavirus and coronavirus response is valid, I am going to look to someone with more education, training, and experience for advice on the subject. If your wife catches coronavirus, are you really going to tell her that Joe said you didn’t have to wear a mask, oops, sorry about that, his opinion is as valid as anybody else’s?
But Joe's opinion comes from vast experience. He's taken care of his family all his life and knows more about how to do that than you, Fauci, or anyone else.
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This reply is so lame that I shouldn't even bother but I'll answer one more time, maybe you can leave this topic alone. I don't "regurgitate" journals. This is so demeaning yet it expresses very well the assault on science. By denigrating the science you are trying to make your "opinion" as valid as others, but that ship has sailed long ago.
You can have your opinions on the other thread. Oh wait, it's closed now. That's why you come here. As for my credentials, you have none so I win by default if that is what you are going for. But as I've been educated in the medical field and practiced for a lot more years than your Google searches, not to mention that I actually deal with sick Covid patients on a regular basis, I think I know a thing or two about this.
Bottom line, unless you want to talk about the science of Covid, it will be preferable to use another avenue for your opinions. You cycle through them so often that I know them all by now even if I gave up long ago on having an actual dialogue.
WIth all due respect Armand, I'd rather take my own counsel than listen on a photography forum to some unknown "expert" who fails to provide his last name and who espouses he knows the "truth". I'm 75, and like Joe, I've managed to take care of me and my family as well without your help. It takes a lot of cheek to assume you know better than me how to do that.
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This reply is so lame that I shouldn't even bother but I'll answer one more time, maybe you can leave this topic alone. I don't "regurgitate" journals. This is so demeaning yet it expresses very well the assault on science. By denigrating the science you are trying to make your "opinion" as valid as others, but that ship has sailed long ago.
You can have your opinions on the other thread. Oh wait, it's closed now. That's why you come here. As for my credentials, you have none so I win by default if that is what you are going for. But as I've been educated in the medical field and practiced for a lot more years than your Google searches, not to mention that I actually deal with sick Covid patients on a regular basis, I think I know a thing or two about this.
Bottom line, unless you want to talk about the science of Covid, it will be preferable to use another avenue for your opinions. You cycle through them so often that I know them all by now even if I gave up long ago on having an actual dialogue.
This is commonly referred to as the "appeal to authority" fallacy.
But like I said before, I have no issue with you doing what you wish, only don't start dictating me what to do.
Last, the Great Barrington Declaration was written by people whom are higher in rank among the medical community then you.
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This is commonly referred to as the "appeal to authority" fallacy.
That's fine, but it doesn't mean Alan has any idea what he is talking about.
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That's fine, but it doesn't mean Alan has any idea what he is talking about.
Fair enough.
Was it the public health expert of South Africa who said earlier this year, there are no experts on C-19 anywhere in the world.
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Fair enough.
Was it the public health expert of South Africa who said earlier this year, there are no experts on C-19 anywhere in the world.
I don't know. Is that his expert opinion? Are there experts who determine that there are no experts. The thing is there are people that know nothing, and people that know something, and people that know a lot about any given subject. Even if there is no expert in the subject, I am going to go with the guy who knows a lot, or better yet a lot of people who know a lot about different aspect of the subject, and not some random guy on the internet with no relevant education, training, and experience with the issue, who says he has been reading about the topic on the internet.
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How many 'Covid' deaths are really caused by Covid-19?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bzh6HwN0gbw
Another debunking of fake news.
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This is commonly referred to as the "appeal to authority" fallacy.
But like I said before, I have no issue with you doing what you wish, only don't start telling me what to do.
Last, the Great Barrington Declaration was written by people whom are higher in rank among the medical community then you.
Actually that's not it means, it was an ironic reply to his questioning. As for them having more authority, I don't think you know how this works. If am in a domain that I know, I can question/interpret what people higher on the leadership scale are doing. If I'm in a totally different field, not so much.
And that stupid quote taken out of context and said a long time ago doesn't mean that an average Joe's opinion is as good as any.
We went over this many times and it's useless to talk to you, I really have better things to do.
I'm here to chip in with scientific things that I know more than most here.
You guys left this mostly alone but now that the other topic forum is closed you just can't contain yourselves.
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WIth all due respect Armand, I'd rather take my own counsel than listen on a photography forum to some unknown "expert" who fails to provide his last name and who espouses he knows the "truth". I'm 75, and like Joe, I've managed to take care of me and my family as well without your help. It takes a lot of cheek to assume you know better than me how to do that.
Alan Klein, this Colin Robinson of Luminous Landscape (see What we do in the shadows for reference), you suck the life of any topic.
Your self righteous answer is great but it has no connection to the subject in hand which is about the science of Covid and not how good you are to take care of your family.
As for my credentials, I told them to you in the past but as in the past it is too difficult for you to recall, or to figure out my name from my signature/website and my posted photos which have my name. Not that it would make a difference, you'd still be back to your experts are wrong and similar bullshit.
I'm out, will reply to the science questions only.
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Actually that's not it means, it was an ironic reply to his questioning. As for them having more authority, I don't think you know how this works. If am in a domain that I know, I can question/interpret what people higher on the leadership scale are doing. If I'm in a totally different field, not so much.
And that stupid quote taken out of context and said a long time ago doesn't mean that an average Joe's opinion is as good as any.
We went over this many times and it's useless to talk to you, I really have better things to do.
I'm here to chip in with scientific things that I know more than most here.
You guys left this mostly alone but now that the other topic forum is closed you just can't contain yourselves.
The threads title is No Politics, not No Opinions but yours.
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Alan Klein, this Colin Robinson of Luminous Landscape (see What we do in the shadows for reference), you suck the life of any topic.
Your self righteous answer is great but it has no connection to the subject in hand which is about the science of Covid and not how good you are to take care of your family.
As for my credentials, I told them to you in the past but as in the past it is too difficult for you to recall, or to figure out my name from my signature/website and my posted photos which have my name. Not that it would make a difference, you'd still be back to your experts are wrong and similar bullshit.
I'm out, will reply to the science questions only.
The thread's title includes "...damage limitation...". That concerns my family. When you espouse what we have to do as a society, that's not science but opinion based on many other factors beside just catching it. It includes economic effects, social interaction, schools, travel, and other human affairs.
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The thread's title includes "...damage limitation...". That concerns my family. When you espouse what we have to do as a society, that's not science but opinion based on many other factors beside just catching it. It includes economic effects, social interaction, schools, travel, and other human affairs.
Close her up Jeremy. This thread is really going off the rails. I don't think discussing "other human affairs" was what was intended. Of course, we could spend a few pages arguing about it. I may be wrong. It has happened before. Use your judgment. You're in charge.
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That's fine, but it doesn't mean Alan has any idea what he is talking about.
He hasn't. It's part of his charm. He has opinions on many topics, and those opinions (usually expressed as assertions of fact, which morph into "opinion" when challenged) float lightly in the ether, free of any factual foundation. It's a recurring feature, on which I've commented before, of his contributions to the threads on this site.
Jeremy
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Actually that's not it means, it was an ironic reply to his questioning. As for them having more authority, I don't think you know how this works. If am in a domain that I know, I can question/interpret what people higher on the leadership scale are doing. If I'm in a totally different field, not so much.
And that stupid quote taken out of context and said a long time ago doesn't mean that an average Joe's opinion is as good as any.
We went over this many times and it's useless to talk to you, I really have better things to do.
I'm here to chip in with scientific things that I know more than most here.
You guys left this mostly alone but now that the other topic forum is closed you just can't contain yourselves.
But you are not in the field of epidemiology, so once again, you are using the fallacy of appeal to authority.
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He hasn't. It's part of his charm. He has opinions on many topics, and those opinions (usually expressed as assertions of fact, which morph into "opinion" when challenged) float lightly in the ether, free of any factual foundation. It's a recurring feature, on which I've commented before, of his contributions to the threads on this site.
Jeremy
My assertions are certainly more factual than Canon and Nikon fanboys who post here, comments on film vs. digital, and whether Photoshop violates the "truth" principal of photography. If you deleted every opinion on LuLa, there would be around 4 posts a week. :)
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My assertions are certainly more factual than Canon and Nikon fanboys who post here, comments on film vs. digital, and whether Photoshop violates the "truth" principal of photography. If you deleted every opinion on LuLa, there would be around 4 posts a week. :)
Some people might draw a different conclusion. I mean you are entitled to your opinion, but it doesn't make your opinion right. There is a lot of factual info in those Nikon vs. Canon debates, frequently more than I see around here, particularly from certain participants.
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Let me set up a little hypothetical. Let's say you are in a car accident, and your wife wasn't wearing a seatbelt, and was thrown through the windshield, and is lying in the middle of the road in a bloody heap, with possible multiple fractures and internal injuries. So you see and few bystanders and yell: "Can anyone help me?" So one of the guys holds up his hand and says "I'm a doctor, I can help." So what are you going to say, that's an appeal to authority, a logical fallacy, so I am going ignore that, and go with the guy in the blue shirt on the left, who, when it is all said and done, turns out to be a plumber, who doesn't have even rudimentary first aid skills, and oh by the way your wife dies. I would love to hear you explain your decision to your in-laws at the funeral.
I think there are times in an argument when you can spend about a half an hour going though your education, training, and experience, you know, your seven PhDs in subjects relevant to the issue you are arguing about, and casually point out that your opponent flunked out of junior high and was released from an insane asylum the day before yesterday, prefatory to you setting out your argument in detail, without that being considered an appeal to authority and an ad hominem attack. I just have this thought rattling around my brain about there being some legitimate uses of appeal to authority in argumentation. Something about an appeal to authority being sort of like introducing testimony, and the appeal to authority objection being sort of like the objection to hearsay. But it has been about twenty years since have looked at the issue in any depth, so I may be mistaken. I frequently am. And before you respond, please outline your education, training, and experience in the area, so I can take that into consideration in assigning what weight to give your response. I promise I won't call it an appeal to authority.
Not only that, but Alan asked Armand's about his credentials, so he was just answering a question, not making an argument.
What credentials do you have to make those choices?
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Some people might draw a different conclusion. I mean you are entitled to your opinion, but it doesn't make your opinion right. There is a lot of factual info in those Nikon vs. Canon debates, frequently more than I see around here, particularly from certain participants.
Well, if you look at Jeremy's last post, he discounted my opinions, which he is certainly entitled too. However, he didn't delete them. Here we respect other's opinions which of course we often will disagree with. We wouldn't be up to page 124 if we all agreed with each other. Regarding Nikon and Canon fanboys, Nikon's are pooh poohed by Canon's fanboys and vice versa. Neither agrees with the other's assessment and think they're secret spies working for the Japanese. As a Sony owner, I think they're both wrong. Of course, Sony is Japanese too. But I'm not talking.
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But Joe's opinion comes from vast experience. He's taken care of his family all his life and knows more about how to do that than you, Fauci, or anyone else.
Right. So if his wife or children catch coronavirus, he's just going treat them at home using his vast experience taking care of them, instead of taking them down to the hospital for treatment by professional healthcare workers with experience treating individuals with coronavirus. Does Joe set his wife's broken arm too. Or maybe treat her cancer at home using his vast experience taking care of her? Of course, Alan, if you want to treat your wife's coronavirus infection, or broken arm, or cancer using your vast experience taking care of her, and maybe reading a couple of articles on the internet, that is entirely your prerogative. After all, your opinion is as valid as anyone else's.
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Right. So if his wife or children catch coronavirus, he's just going treat them at home using his vast experience taking care of them, instead of taking them down to the hospital for treatment by professional healthcare workers with experience treating individuals with coronavirus. Does Joe set his wife's broken arm too. Or maybe treat her cancer at home using his vast experience taking care of her? Of course, Alan, if you want to treat your wife's coronavirus infection, or broken arm, or cancer using your vast experience taking care of her, and maybe reading a couple of articles on the internet, that is entirely your prerogative. After all, your opinion is as valid as anyone else's.
Straw man. I never said that. And when did you stop beating your wife?
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Straw man. I never said that. And when did you stop beating your wife?
But Joe's opinion comes from vast experience. He's taken care of his family all his life and knows more about how to do that than you, Fauci, or anyone else.
Fascinating.
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Just came across the following article.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2818-3#:~:text=We%20find%20that%20all%20risk,to%20the%20Vindija%2033.19%20Neanderthal.
"The major genetic risk factor for severe COVID-19 is inherited from Neanderthals"
I wonder if this could be one of the reasons why countries such as Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, and China have such low rates of Covid-19 deaths; because the populations have inherited so few Neanderthal genes. ;)
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Just came across the following article.
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2818-3#:~:text=We%20find%20that%20all%20risk,to%20the%20Vindija%2033.19%20Neanderthal.
"The major genetic risk factor for severe COVID-19 is inherited from Neanderthals"
I wonder if this could be one of the reasons why countries such as Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, and China have such low rates of Covid-19 deaths; because the populations have inherited so few Neanderthal genes. ;)
I've thought that for awhile. A couple of days ago there was an article that claimed there had been no cases, zero, in Taiwan in 200 days. How could that be? Of course, they're an island and maybe they're not letting anyone in. So if they eradicated it early, there's nothing to spread. But zero?
My other theory is that these diseases seem to originate there. So the populations have become immune possibly from past infections of similar viruses. I think more will come out after the American election.
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I've thought that for awhile. A couple of days ago there was an article that claimed there had been no cases, zero, in Taiwan in 200 days. How could that be? Of course, they're an island and maybe they're not letting anyone in. So if they eradicated it early, there's nothing to spread. But zero?
My other theory is that these diseases seem to originate there. So the populations have become immune possibly from past infections of similar viruses. I think more will come out after the American election.
Alan, by now your Herd Immunity theory has been sufficiently debunked and should be put to a rest. Beside, Taiwan had such a small number of infections, so the population couldn't possibly develop any immunity from those few cases. But things are looking up even outside of Taiwan - Trump announced repeatably that the USA is rounding the corner.
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[post deleted: political]
Alan, do not try to introduce political discussion to this thread. I will not tolerate it, as you well know.
Jeremy
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Alan, by now your Herd Immunity theory has been sufficiently debunked and should be put to a rest. Beside, Taiwan had such a small number of infections, so the population couldn't possibly develop any immunity from those few cases. But things are looking up even outside of Taiwan - Trump announced repeatably that the USA is rounding the corner.
Who debunked herd immunity? I thought it's still a valid theory.
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Who debunked herd immunity? I thought it's still a valid theory.
There is nothing wrong with the theory, but the toll (in human suffering) it takes, and the time it takes to reach that immunity, is unacceptable.
So it has been debunked as a sensible solution.
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Alan, by now your Herd Immunity theory has been sufficiently debunked and should be put to a rest. Beside, Taiwan had such a small number of infections, so the population couldn't possibly develop any immunity from those few cases. But things are looking up even outside of Taiwan - Trump announced repeatably that the USA is rounding the corner.
I thought the White House issued a report from the Science and Technology group that said Trump had successfully steered us through the pandemic, and it was over. Perhaps someone could post something about the science of the pandemic being over or not. I am not a scientist. I can only relay what my next door neighbor who is a doctor told me: where he works the ICUs are packed with COVID patients. That's not really scientific. Probably just some random information to file away somewhere.
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I thought the White House issued a report from the Science and Technology group that said Trump had successfully steered us through the pandemic, and it was over. Perhaps someone could post something about the science of the pandemic being over. I am not a scientist. I can only relay what my next door neighbor told me: where he works the ICUs are packed with COVID patients.
It's over for him. He's had it. :)
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There is nothing wrong with the theory, but the toll (in human suffering) it takes, and the time it takes to reach that immunity, is unacceptable.
So it has been debunked as a sensible solution.
Leaving aside a vaccine, which only would help, herd immunity might be the only thing that stops it. After all, with all the precaution taken in Europe, it has broken out again. So until you get herd immunity (or a vaccine) you can't stop it. All we're doing is slowing down the spread.
If you recall, the original plan was to use masks and isolation to slow it down so hospitals had a chance to get the PPE and their acts together and not be overwhelmed with too many cases at once. At least, that's how it was sold in America. I don't recall anyone saying these methods would stop it's spread entirely. So that's what we're seeing now as it continues its march infecting the entire population. Let's hope the vaccine works and can be produced in enough quality fast enough. Or nature steps in and ends its reign and it dies out on its own, an unlikely case as it seems right now.
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All we're doing is slowing down the spread.
I thought that was what we have been trying been trying to do for the past seven or so months. I seem to remember in the beginning Fauci said something about flattening the curve so the health care system wasn't overwhelmed.
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I thought that was what we have been trying been trying to do for the past seven or so months. I seem to remember in the beginning Fauci said something about flattening the curve so the health care system wasn't overwhelmed.
I covered that in my post. Didn't you read the whole thing?
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Who debunked herd immunity? I thought it's still a valid theory.
Theoretically, it seems like a valid theory.
A more practical solution is to avoid virus introduction in the first place. Here is an article explaining how Taiwan managed to avoid this plague:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/15/how-taiwan-beat-the-coronavirus.html
New Zealand applied similar measures and it has had similar success.
In contrast, USA totally disregarded the scientific advice and recommendations and made the situation much worse by allowing mass street demonstrations and superspreader rallies.
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I covered that in my post. Didn't you read the whole thing?
Of course. I wouldn't want to miss a word of your posts.
I thought the way you characterized what we were doing by saying " All we're doing..." was minimizing what we have been trying to do.
And I don't know why you prefaced your remarks by saying "Leaving aside a vaccine" when no one anywhere is leaving it aside. A vaccine is pretty much the whole ball of wax. Why would we have a discussion leaving it aside?
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Theoretically, it seems like a valid theory.
A more practical solution is to avoid virus introduction in the first place. Here is an article explaining how Taiwan managed to avoid this plague:
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/15/how-taiwan-beat-the-coronavirus.html
New Zealand applied similar measures and it has had similar success.
In contrast, USA totally disregarded the scientific advice and recommendations and made the situation much worse by allowing mass street demonstrations and superspreader rallies.
Apparently the article states that Taiwan had been working on its plan for years. I assume it's because they've had issues before. They've used masks for years. BUt I think the main issue is Taiwan's population is all Chinese. They're a single people, a single culture, and singular in the way they think about things and handle them. America is huge, too diverse. We have around 150+ different languages and cultures. We're an immigrant nation. We have a history of individualism, for better or worse. We don't like following rules. Thar may account for the way Europe is affected as well. Each country handles it little differently. Some Europeans are rioting over the rules unlike Taiwanese and other Asians who kowtow to their governments. The bottom line is Americans aren't Taiwanese. Neither are Europeans and they're suffering just as much. I don't understand why you're always picking on America? Europe's no better. I've read that the summer vacation and travel have caused the second wave there. Why did the EU and all the leaders there allow that? Europe has beaches too after all.
Are the New Zealanders similar? Are they a single people. Both NZ and Taiwan are also islands that can more easily limit international travel. They're isolated unlike Europe and America. DNA may have something to do with these things as well. We really should study what works and what doesn't and whether culture and history have their effects. But to keep castigating America seems to border on politics.
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Of course. I wouldn't want to miss a word of your posts.
I thought the way you characterized what we were doing by saying " All we're doing..." was minimizing what we have been trying to do.
And I don't know why you prefaced your remarks by saying "Leaving aside a vaccine" when no one anywhere is leaving it aside. A vaccine is pretty much the whole ball of wax.
My post explains all those things. Sorry you don't understand.
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Apparently the article states that Taiwan had been working on its plan for years. I assume it's because they've had issues before. They've used masks for years. BUt I think the main issue is Taiwan's population is all Chinese. They're a single people, a single culture, and singular in the way they think about things and handle them. America is huge, too diverse. We have around 150+ different languages and cultures. We're an immigrant nation. We have a history of individualism, for better or worse. We don't like following rules. Thar may account for the way Europe is affected as well. Each country handles it little differently. Some Europeans are rioting over the rules unlike Taiwanese and other Asians who kowtow to their governments. The bottom line is Americans aren't Taiwanese. Neither are Europeans and they're suffering just as much. I don't understand why you're always picking on America? Europe's no better. I've read that the summer vacation and travel have caused the second wave there. Why did the EU and all the leaders there allow that? Europe has beaches too after all.
Are the New Zealanders similar? Are they a single people. Both NZ and Taiwan are also islands that can more easily limit international travel. They're isolated unlike Europe and America. DNA may have something to do with these things as well. We really should study what works and what doesn't and whether culture and history have their effects. But to keep castigating America seems to border on politics.
There are no races, you know, there's only DNA.
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Apparently the article states that Taiwan had been working on its plan for years. I assume it's because they've had issues before. They've used masks for years. BUt I think the main issue is Taiwan's population is all Chinese. They're a single people, a single culture, and singular in the way they think about things and handle them. America is huge, too diverse. We have around 150+ different languages and cultures. We're an immigrant nation. We have a history of individualism, for better or worse. We don't like following rules. Thar may account for the way Europe is affected as well. Each country handles it little differently. Some Europeans are rioting over the rules unlike Taiwanese and other Asians who kowtow to their governments. The bottom line is Americans aren't Taiwanese. Neither are Europeans and they're suffering just as much. I don't understand why you're always picking on America? Europe's no better. I've read that the summer vacation and travel have caused the second wave there. Why did the EU and all the leaders there allow that? Europe has beaches too after all.
Are the New Zealanders similar? Are they a single people. Both NZ and Taiwan are also islands that can more easily limit international travel. They're isolated unlike Europe and America. DNA may have something to do with these things as well. We really should study what works and what doesn't and whether culture and history have their effects. But to keep castigating America seems to border on politics.
Actually, I like America and Americans.
I understand and also admire the individualism. But justifying no compliance with a sound and serious medical advice is not a sign of responsible nation, it is more a hallmark of an immature, rebellious and suicidal teenager. You personally take all possible precautions against the virus, so why do you endorse all the maskless mass gatherings? Is it the freedom to get exposed to the virus?
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Apparently the article states that Taiwan had been working on its plan for years. I assume it's because they've had issues before. They've used masks for years. BUt I think the main issue is Taiwan's population is all Chinese. They're a single people, a single culture, and singular in the way they think about things and handle them. America is huge, too diverse. We have around 150+ different languages and cultures. We're an immigrant nation. We have a history of individualism, for better or worse. We don't like following rules. Thar may account for the way Europe is affected as well. Each country handles it little differently. Some Europeans are rioting over the rules unlike Taiwanese and other Asians who kowtow to their governments. The bottom line is Americans aren't Taiwanese. Neither are Europeans and they're suffering just as much. I don't understand why you're always picking on America? Europe's no better. I've read that the summer vacation and travel have caused the second wave there. Why did the EU and all the leaders there allow that? Europe has beaches too after all.
Are the New Zealanders similar? Are they a single people. Both NZ and Taiwan are also islands that can more easily limit international travel. They're isolated unlike Europe and America. DNA may have something to do with these things as well. We really should study what works and what doesn't and whether culture and history have their effects. But to keep castigating America seems to border on politics.
I've known a few rugged individualists in my life, and, based on my experience, they all stopped at red lights, so they generally seemed to know a good idea from a bad idea when it came to their health and safety. Maybe that would be a good research project, to determine the percentage of rugged individualists who wear masks and the percentage of those who don't. Then we might be able to determine whether our pathetic response to the coronavirus is attributable to an ethos of rugged individualism or just plain stupidity. Or a lack of leadership at the federal, state, and local level.
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Actually, I like America and Americans.
I understand and also admire the individualism. But justifying no compliance with a sound and serious medical advice is not a sign of responsible nation, it is more a hallmark of an immature, rebellious and suicidal teenager. You personally take all possible precautions against the virus, so why do you endorse all the maskless mass gatherings? Is it the freedom to get exposed to the virus?
First, it seems that the young in Europe are just as individualistic and adventurous as the young in America. And why are Europeans rioting in the street about the rules if they're so smart and sensible?
Second, I never endorsed maskless mass gatherings? I said let people act on their own accord, hopefully responsibly as they see fit. We don't need the government to force us how to live to stay alive. We're not stupid. I'm going to the hospital tomorrow in NYC for a CT scan and then to see a doctor there. Frankly, I'd rather not go because I put myself in danger. But I'm weighing the dangers of being in a hospital environment with sick people who might be sick with Covid, with getting a test I should have had last August. We all have to balance risks and rewards. I don't want an unfeeling bureaucrat telling me what to do. Additionally the hospital set up rules that they feel are appropriate. They don't need the government. They aren't stupid either.
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I've known a few rugged individualists in my life, and, based on my experience, they all stopped at red lights, so they generally seemed to know a good idea from a bad idea when it came to their health and safety. Maybe that would be a good research project, to determine the percentage of rugged individualists who wear masks and the percentage of those who don't. Then we might be able to determine whether our pathetic response to the coronavirus is attributable to an ethos of rugged individualism or just plain stupidity. Or a lack of leadership at the federal, state, and local level.
Your arguments are political in nature due to the election. The speed of vaccine research was helped by good leadership as the top. So was getting PPE equipment in place that was in short supply in the beginning. The main reason it's spreading is because its a very infectious disease that's difficult to control and limit. There's only so much that can be done.
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Your arguments are political in nature due to the election. The speed of vaccine research was helped by good leadership as the top. So was getting PPE equipment in place that was in short supply in the beginning. The main reason it's spreading is because its a very infectious disease that's difficult to control and limit. There's only so much that can be done.
What does any of that have to do with my comments about rugged individualism and its relation, if any, to our pathetic response to the coronavirus? You brought the subject up to begin with, and now you are just changing the subject because you don't want to, or can't, respond to my comments. It is always the same with you.
My wife had to come in and help me off the floor I was laughing so hard when you said my arguments were political in nature due to election.
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What does any of that have to do with my comments about rugged individualism and its relation, if any, to our pathetic response to the coronavirus? You brought the subject up to begin with, and now you are just changing the subject because you don't want to, or can't, respond to my comments. It is always the same with you.
My wife had to come in and help me off the floor I was laughing so hard when you said my arguments were political in nature due to election.
Your wife always has to help you off the floor.
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Your wife always has to help you off the floor.
That was really pretty lame. You can do better. And don't think I, and probably everyone else, didn't notice that you dodged my questions.
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That was really pretty lame. You can do better. And don't think I, and probably everyone else, didn't notice that you dodged my questions.
Sorry. I shouldn't have brought your wife into. That wasn't called for. You ask too many questions where I already gave the answer like you didn't read my post. It's annoying.
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Sorry. I shouldn't have brought your wife into. That wasn't called for. You ask too many questions where I already gave the answer like you didn't read my post. It's annoying.
I didn’t take offense. I just thought it was a lame response. That ill-advised post of yours was a response to my previous post wherein I asked you several questions. You still haven’t answered any of them. Or the questions in my post previous to that either. You have this habit of changing the subject instead of answering questions. Do you think no one notices?
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Theoretically, it seems like a valid theory.
Sure, the herd immunity theory is just like the theory that you can get your team of hikers to the bottom of the mountain by everyone jumping off the next precipice you come to. Perfectly valid, but probably not the best course of action, even if a couple do survive the fall. So you look at other ways to achieve the objective. Well, except for ace radiologist Scott Adams, Trump's medical advisor and his hand selected member on the administration's coronavirus task force, who is encouraging everybody to jump. I read an article the other day that in August Dr. Birx, dear old Dr. Birx, the scarf lady, said she wasn't going to sit in on any more meetings where Scott Adams was present. So that probably explains why you haven't seen or heard from her in months. I wish I had saved that link.
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Chinese... singular in the way they think about things
Disgusting
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I didn’t take offense. I just thought it was a lame response. That ill-advised post was a response to my previous post wherein I asked you several questions. You still haven’t answered any of them. Or the questions in my post previous to that either. You have this habit of changing the subject instead of answering questions. Do you think no one notices?
I don't have to answer your questions of which there are too many. You're not interviewing me. Make your points and I'll make mine.
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Some Europeans are rioting over the rules unlike Taiwanese and other Asians who kowtow to their governments.
"Asians who kowtow to their governments"...
https://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2017/12/23/18/tiananmen-square-front.jpg (https://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2017/12/23/18/tiananmen-square-front.jpg)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_Hong_Kong_protests#/Hong_Kong_protests_-_Panorama.jpg (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_Hong_Kong_protests#/media/File:Hong_Kong_protests_-_Panorama.jpg)
https://www.bbc.com/news/Mass protest held in Taiwan (https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-26825217)
Voice of America - November 1, 2020
https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/hong-kong-opposition-politicians-arrested-over-legislature-protest (https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/hong-kong-opposition-politicians-arrested-over-legislature-protest)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_Hong_Kong_protests (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_Hong_Kong_protests)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Million_Voices_Against_Corruption_President_Chen_Must_Go (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Million_Voices_Against_Corruption,_President_Chen_Must_Go)
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I don't have to answer your questions of which there are too many. You're not interviewing me. Make your points and I'll make mine.
Of course you don't have to answer my questions. Nobody is forcing to you. The problem is you quote my post in your response, and then change the subject. If you quote my post in your response, I don't think it is unreasonable for me to think that you would like to engage in a conversation with me, so I'll ask questions so we can talk about whatever we are discussing, or just point out that your post is not really a response, and you trying to change the subject. If you don't want to answer my questions, don't include my post as a quote in your response; just post some off-topic comment, and we'll figure out that you don't want to talk about the subject we were discussing any more, and would like to talk about something different. It is really not that hard. Sort of basic stuff.
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Of course you don't have to answer my questions. Nobody is forcing to you. The problem is you quote my post in your response, and then change the subject. If you quote my post in your response, I don't think it is unreasonable for me to think that you would like to engage in a conversation with me, so I'll ask questions so we can talk about whatever we are discussing, or just point out that your post is not really a response but you trying to change the subject. If you don't want to answer my questions, don't include my post as a quote in your response; just post some off-topic comment, and we'll figure out that you don't want to talk about the subject we were discussing any more, and would like to talk about something different. It is really not that hard. Sort of basic stuff.
Often you make points and ask questions in the same post. I'm addressing your points. Or I'll answer a question. I don't have to respond to everything you've said. That's not how conversations work.
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"Asians who kowtow to their governments"...
https://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2017/12/23/18/tiananmen-square-front.jpg (https://static.independent.co.uk/s3fs-public/thumbnails/image/2017/12/23/18/tiananmen-square-front.jpg)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_Hong_Kong_protests#/Hong_Kong_protests_-_Panorama.jpg (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_Hong_Kong_protests#/media/File:Hong_Kong_protests_-_Panorama.jpg)
https://www.bbc.com/news/Mass protest held in Taiwan (https://www.bbc.com/news/av/world-asia-26825217)
Voice of America - November 1, 2020
https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/hong-kong-opposition-politicians-arrested-over-legislature-protest (https://www.voanews.com/east-asia-pacific/hong-kong-opposition-politicians-arrested-over-legislature-protest)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_Hong_Kong_protests (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2019–20_Hong_Kong_protests)
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_Million_Voices_Against_Corruption_President_Chen_Must_Go (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Million_Voices_Against_Corruption,_President_Chen_Must_Go)
Many Asian people are more respectful to authority than Westerners. China had Emperors before a single Communist party. So the entire mainland CHinese have never seen real democracy. Even the Chinese on Taiwan come from the Emperor past. The Japanese had Emperor's before WWII and still have them afterwards albeit with Democracy forced on them by the West.
The West has a tradition of more independent thinking and personal freedoms dating back to the Magna Carta, the French and American Revolutions, etc. although I think America tends to be more independent than the rest of the West since we are a new nation with an immigrant history, a people, who fled powerful central rule. Our very constitution is about limiting power of government and protecting personal liberty. So that naturally supports a people who rail against rule.
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Often you make points and ask questions in the same post. I'm addressing your points. Or I'll answer a question. I don't have to respond to everything you've said. That's not how conversations work.
Well, you quote me, and then go off topic or are otherwise unresponsive, so I don’t know what the hell you are doing.
Everyone knows why you are not answering the questions and changing the subject all the time, so don't think you are fooling anyone.
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Disgusting
Yet somehow curiously unsurprising.
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Quote from: TechTalk on Today at 05:02:26 pm
Disgusting
Yet somehow curiously unsurprising.
Rather than sniggering like two old ladies behind someone's back, why don't you address my points in #2504 like men and tell me why they are wrong.
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Rather than sniggering like two old ladies behind someone's back, why don't you address my points in #2504 like men and tell me why they are wrong.
Because your frequent, well-worn, and recycled ethnic stereotypes have worn out their welcome with me quite some time ago and are undeserving of any more attention than the one word response that I already gave.
I don't have to respond to everything you've said. That's not how conversations work.
I don't have to answer your questions of which there are too many. You're not interviewing me. Make your points and I'll make mine.
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Because your frequent, well-worn, and recycled ethnic stereotypes have worn out their welcome with me quite some time ago and are undeserving of any more attention than the one word response that I already gave.
Copout.
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Many Asian people are more respectful to authority than Westerners. China had Emperors before a single Communist party. So the entire mainland CHinese have never seen real democracy. Even the Chinese on Taiwan come from the Emperor past. The Japanese had Emperor's before WWII and still have them afterwards albeit with Democracy forced on them by the West.
The West has a tradition of more independent thinking and personal freedoms dating back to the Magna Carta, the French and American Revolutions, etc. although I think America tends to be more independent than the rest of the West since we are a new nation with an immigrant history, a people, who fled powerful central rule. Our very constitution is about limiting power of government and protecting personal liberty. So that naturally supports a people who rail against rule.
How then do you explain slavery, Jim Crow and segregation?
You don't get out much, do you? It's not 1926 anymore.
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Copout.
Nope. Not a copout at all.
For further on this topic, see TT's earlier simile regarding calculus and bricks.
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Rather than sniggering like two old ladies behind someone's back, why don't you address my points in #2504 like men and tell me why they are wrong.
Because, quite apart from a host of reasons, this thread is, as the title says, is about science snd damage limitation, intended as a forum where we can keep abreast of developments and efficacy in treating and curtailing this epidemic.
It was never to be a chit-chat show nor a place where you can give free vent to more of your incessant blather. Time for a time-out.
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This topic has, sadly, been irredeemably polluted and is therefore closed. It will not re-open.
Jeremy