COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS

[Paulo Bizarro]

Don't you think young people know this?  They need the government to tell them?  Don't you think they can make a reasoned judgment to try to work in spite of the possibility they may catch the virus or stay home?  Does the government care more about them and their families then they do or what their needs are?  People have grown up depending on the government rather then themselves.  That's common in Europe where there's a lot of paternalism.  Governments there have always  told the people what to do. But Americans are individualists, or they use to be anyway.   

The problem with this resurgence of the virus in young people is that they di not caught it in work. They caught it by gathering in covid-parties, getting together by the hundreds while drinking with total disregard for their safety and the safety of others. For example yesterday in Albufeira (Portugal, Algarve) hundreds of young dutch people flooded the bars and crowded the streets getting drunk, no respect for social distance or mask wearing.

We see the same in Belgium, UK, lots of places.

[Alan Goldhammer]

We will need more data, but there are areas of New York City with very high numbers of people who were infected by COVID-19.  As the New York Tijmes notes, some parts of Queens show 68% of people testing positive for antibodies.  Maybe it's time to move back to the city.  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-antibodies.html

[faberryman]

Where it becomes out of hand, then those areas are tightened up.

That seems to be working well.

[Jeremy Roussak]

I have just issued yet another ban to someone for introducing politics into this thread, and deleted the relevant (or irrelevant) post. Some discussion of economics is permissible, falling as it does within "damage limitation". Specific political comment is not; I will not permit this thread to go the way of the other, as I have made clear.

Jeremy

[Alan Klein]

We will need more data, but there are areas of New York City with very high numbers of people who were infected by COVID-19.  As the New York Tijmes notes, some parts of Queens show 68% of people testing positive for antibodies.  Maybe it's time to move back to the city.  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/07/09/nyregion/nyc-coronavirus-antibodies.html

It seems that no matter what we do, the virus will progress through all the neighborhoods.  So pay now or pay more later which is what I've been saying.  I think we're going to find out that all of this hiding out will be for nought.  Sure, while you hide, you're safe.  But as soon as you come out, it starts spreading again. Or maybe a second wave will get you.  Those already exposed, might have herd immunity.  By the way, I'm from Queens.

From your article:
"At a clinic in Corona, a working-class neighborhood in Queens, more than 68 percent of people tested positive for antibodies to the new coronavirus. At another clinic in Jackson Heights, Queens, that number was 56 percent. But at a clinic in Cobble Hill, a mostly white and wealthy neighborhood in Brooklyn, only 13 percent of people tested positive for antibodies.

...But now, as the city braces for a possible second wave of the virus, some of those vulnerabilities may flip, with the affluent neighborhoods becoming most at risk of a surge. According to antibody test results from CityMD that were shared with The New York Times, some neighborhoods were so exposed to the virus during the peak of the epidemic in March and April that they might have some protection during a second wave.

“Some communities might have herd immunity,” said Dr. Daniel Frogel, a senior vice president for operations at CityMD, which plays a key role in the city’s testing program.

[hogloff]

It seems that no matter what we do, the virus will progress through all the neighborhoods.  So pay now or pay more later which is what I've been saying.  I think we're going to find out that all of this hiding out will be for nought.  Sure, while you hide, you're safe.  But as soon as you come out, it starts spreading again. Or maybe a second wave will get you.  Those already exposed, might have herd immunity.  By the way, I'm from Queens.

From your article:
"At a clinic in Corona, a working-class neighborhood in Queens, more than 68 percent of people tested positive for antibodies to the new coronavirus. At another clinic in Jackson Heights, Queens, that number was 56 percent. But at a clinic in Cobble Hill, a mostly white and wealthy neighborhood in Brooklyn, only 13 percent of people tested positive for antibodies.

...But now, as the city braces for a possible second wave of the virus, some of those vulnerabilities may flip, with the affluent neighborhoods becoming most at risk of a surge. According to antibody test results from CityMD that were shared with The New York Times, some neighborhoods were so exposed to the virus during the peak of the epidemic in March and April that they might have some protection during a second wave.

“Some communities might have herd immunity,” said Dr. Daniel Frogel, a senior vice president for operations at CityMD, which plays a key role in the city’s testing program.

You don't have to hide...just be smart out there. Wear masks, stay away from people if possible and always wash hands when you can. It's just the majority of the people are not smart and then we have the issues we are seeing today. It's no secret how other countries controlled the virus.

[Alan Goldhammer]

You don't have to hide...just be smart out there. Wear masks, stay away from people if possible and always wash hands when you can. It's just the majority of the people are not smart and then we have the issues we are seeing today. It's no secret how other countries controlled the virus.

THIS!!  Honestly, public health is not rocket science.  It's just that a bunch of people have made it into a political issue.  I have never been an opponent of keeping things in a full lockdown.  I am a proponent of physical distancing and wearing masks.  If businesses took those two things seriously we would be better off.

[faberryman]

I bet you are wondering whether sending your kids to summer camp this summer was a good idea. Well, we now have an answer. Kamp Kanakuk in Missouri has shut down after more than 80 kids and staffers from ten states became infected with the coronavirus. Parents can pick up their Darwin Awards in person at camp headquarters.

https://nypost.com/2020/07/09/missouri-sleepaway-camp-closes-after-82-kids-staff-get-coronavirus/

When did you say schools were opening?

[Alan Klein]

I bet you are wondering whether sending your kids to summer camp this summer was a good idea. Well, we now have an answer. Kamp Kanakuk in Missouri has shut down after more than 80 kids and staffers from ten states became infected with the coronavirus. Parents can pick up their Darwin Awards in person at camp headquarters.

https://nypost.com/2020/07/09/missouri-sleepaway-camp-closes-after-82-kids-staff-get-coronavirus/

When did you say schools were opening?

I just returned from my dentist. Supposedly he took all approved action to make himself, staff and facilities safe.  We'll find out in a few days if that was so.  I'm keeping my fingers crossed. 

[Alan Klein]

You don't have to hide...just be smart out there. Wear masks, stay away from people if possible and always wash hands when you can. It's just the majority of the people are not smart and then we have the issues we are seeing today. It's no secret how other countries controlled the virus.

You missed the whole point of the article and my post.  High initial rates in communities might mean they have reached herd immunity and will be protected from subsequent waves.  They can start living their lives more or less normally while the rest of us walk around in fear waiting for the axe to drop.   

[hogloff]

You missed the whole point of the article and my post.  High initial rates in communities might mean they have reached herd immunity and will be protected from subsequent waves.  They can start living their lives more or less normally while the rest of us walk around in fear waiting for the axe to drop.

Yeh...until Joe Blow from Idaho which is still rampant with Covid visits your town and sits next to you at the bar having a beer.

[Alan Goldhammer]

You missed the whole point of the article and my post.  High initial rates in communities might mean they have reached herd immunity and will be protected from subsequent waves.  They can start living their lives more or less normally while the rest of us walk around in fear waiting for the axe to drop.

The problem is that at least 60% infection rate will be needed for herd immunity.  Current US-wide infection rate is 0.9%  We have a long road ahead and it really doesn't matter if your community has herd immunity given how easy it is to travel from one point in the US to another.  Nobody other than those who have demonstrably recovered can live lives normally and even then it's hard with so many places closed.

[BobShaw]

High initial rates in communities might mean they have reached herd immunity and will be protected from subsequent waves. 

I don't know what the health message is in the US but our Chief Medical Officer said Herd Immunity doesn't work at about the end of March. Herd Immunity basically means that everyone gets it, so with a usual 1% mortality rate that would mean 3 million dead in the US. It might mean that your kids become immune but it doesn't sound like a workable plan to me.

What works is washing your hands, social distancing and if you don't need to go out, then stay at home.

Most of Australia has been clean for some time but we just had an outbreak in Melbourne (5 million people). Only about 150 cases but they have closed the city at a radius of about 40Km and NSW has closed the border to the state of Victoria using 1000 police and army. Hope it works and quickly, as we have just opened up most businesses.

[LesPalenik]

What works is washing your hands, social distancing and if you don't need to go out, then stay at home.

That makes a lot of sense, but a lot of noise is generated about the surface transmission, and many retail/online companies are fueling this theory, scarring the shoppers and receiving windfall by offering the contactless shopping. Are there any reliable statistics breaking down the spread methods of the virus?

[Chris Kern]

a lot of noise is generated about the surface transmission, and many retail/online companies are fueling this theory, scarring the shoppers and receiving windfall by offering the contactless shopping. Are there any reliable statistics breaking down the spread methods of the virus?

Absent some sort of accident—e.g., in a lab where tests were being performed on live virus samples—it's not evident to me how it would even be possible to perform contact-tracing of fomite transmission.  Chances are the evidence would disappear long before the contact-tracer arrived on the scene.

[BobShaw]

That makes a lot of sense, but a lot of noise is generated about the surface transmission, and many retail/online companies are fueling this theory, scarring the shoppers and receiving windfall by offering the contactless shopping. Are there any reliable statistics breaking down the spread methods of the virus?

I don't know about statistics, but there is plenty of published information on the life of the virus on various surfaces. Cardboard is one of he worst at about three days. That is one of the reasons why washing of hands is so important.
In Australia every food shop at least wipes the bench after every sale.  All shops must supply sanitiser.  I have hardly used cash since the March and a lot of shops won't take cash.

[LesPalenik]

I don't know about statistics, but there is plenty of published information on the life of the virus on various surfaces. Cardboard is one of he worst at about three days. That is one of the reasons why washing of hands is so important.
In Australia every food shop at least wipes the bench after every sale.  All shops must supply sanitiser.  I have hardly used cash since the March and a lot of shops won't take cash.

The above information is valid, and the stores are much cleaner now than before the outbreak, but it all still falls in the theoretical realm.
It would be interesting to know how prevalent are the actual infections resulting from touching surfaces, compared with the transmissions by droplets or air.

[Alan Goldhammer]

I have read a lot of the papers on viral transmission (archive is: https://agoldhammer.com/covid_19/ ).  the major route of transmission continues to be aerosols.  Personally, I don't think contact transmission is a big issue unless someone spit a huge load of virus onto a surface and you then touched it and licked your fingers.  the lab work is just that, lab studies.  they are able to culture virus under those conditions and that likely does not resemble real life.  Paper and a cardboard may be harboring virus in the fibers but it is not easily transmitted via that manner.  I do not worry about the daily mail or the newspaper.  I go to buy groceries twice a week and have picked up food to take home from restaurants, etc.  I always wear a mask and don't go into crowded stores.  I wash my hands when I get home.  I find this to be a reasonable precaution.

[Alan Klein]

Cardboard is 24 hours. 

[LesPalenik]

Cardboard is 24 hours.

As Alan G says - unless you plan to lick it, don't worry.