Luminous Landscape Forum

The Art of Photography => The Coffee Corner => Topic started by: Manoli on March 22, 2020, 10:28:21 am

Title: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on March 22, 2020, 10:28:21 am
(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49686713961_bd2ce3f798_z.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/2iGDp16)


----

SKYNews (UK) covering the crisis as well, if not better, than anyone.
News, live feed, broadcast via YouTube
https://youtu.be/9Auq9mYxFEE

The shocking centre of the COVID-19 crisis
SKYNews 5 minute documentary
https://youtu.be/_J60fQr0GWo

NYT Corona virus outbreak LIVE feed
https://www.nytimes.com/news-event/coronavirus

NEJM
Covid-19 and the Stiff Upper Lip — The Pandemic Response in the United Kingdom (NEJM) (https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMp2005755?query=featured_home%23article_introduction)
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on March 22, 2020, 10:41:30 am
(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49686820056_26f798e82b_z.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/2iGDWxj)


In most western countries case numbers have been increasing by about 33 per cent a day, a sign that other countries may soon be facing the same challenge as Italy.  The Asian city-state of Singapore and the territory of Hong Kong are on a different trajectory in terms of the growth in case numbers. The rate of increase has so far been relatively contained through rapid and strict measures.

UK is in real trouble here. On current trends, UK could hit Italy’s death count in ~9 days. Italy locked down 10 days ago. UK is already behind that schedule.

Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on March 22, 2020, 10:43:40 am
FT live blog
Coronavirus tracked: the latest figures as the pandemic spreads (https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest)
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on March 22, 2020, 11:25:16 am
https://nyti.ms/3dnAfoq

Stuff for nightmares
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on March 22, 2020, 11:26:14 am
Virus increasing rapidly in Italy, Spain and UK. Indeed, and also the death curves are steepening.

Interestingly, Taiwan has it under control. They instituted early the tests, and they have also the necessary protective equipment. So far, only 162 cases with 2 deaths. All this without any lockdown. The stores and restaurants are still open and kids still go to school.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on March 22, 2020, 12:17:00 pm
Visuals
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: DP on March 22, 2020, 01:15:53 pm
FT live blog
Coronavirus tracked: the latest figures as the pandemic spreads (https://www.ft.com/coronavirus-latest)

paywalled...
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: DP on March 22, 2020, 01:16:31 pm
non paywalled - https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on March 22, 2020, 02:15:52 pm
There are several places to get data, here's another dashboard fyi, https://ncov2019.live/data (https://ncov2019.live/data).

They're reporting a large increase in US infections today. Might be because of better testing, so more reliable confirmations.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on March 22, 2020, 02:24:39 pm
paywalled...

I realised after I'd posted. Shame on the FT!
Anyone with access to Twitter can follow @jburnmurdoch - he's the stistician and man compiling the charts for the FT.

For an ongoing 'LIVE' blog there's also The Guardian:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/22/coronavirus-news-coronavirus-live-updates-deaths-uk-italy-lockdown-spain-us-new-york-south-america

Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on March 22, 2020, 03:24:14 pm
It looks like Italy is slowly catching up to the China numbers, and USA is quickly catching up to both of them.
At the present rate, by end of the week USA could have the undesirable distinction for most infection cases.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on March 22, 2020, 03:31:44 pm
Today's numbers show that both Italy and Spain had smaller daily increases today than yesterday. I hope it's an early indication that the "lockdown" is having an effect. Still a long way from good news though.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on March 22, 2020, 03:41:06 pm
It looks like Italy is slowly catching up to the China numbers, and USA is quickly catching up to both of them.
At the present rate, by end of the week USA could have the undesirable distinction for most infection cases.

It will, it has a much larger population than Italy and unfortunately it doesn't look that we are that far behind in regards to spread.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on March 22, 2020, 03:59:57 pm
Today's numbers show that both Italy and Spain had smaller daily increases today than yesterday. I hope it's an early indication that the "lockdown" is having an effect. Still a long way from good news though.
I read a technical paper the other day from a group of Italian and Greek data analysts and they are looking at the end of May for a fade out of new cases.  It's very math heavy but if you are interested, here is the link: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.17.20037689v1
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Slobodan Blagojevic on March 22, 2020, 04:05:01 pm
This shouldn't be about (international) politics, but it is good to see this level of cooperation. It also raises an interesting question about dealing with each country's limited hospital resources: what if we could shift doctors and supplies from country to country, as the virus spreads across the globe?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on March 22, 2020, 04:18:31 pm
I read a technical paper the other day from a group of Italian and Greek data analysts and they are looking at the end of May for a fade out of new cases.  It's very math heavy but if you are interested, here is the link: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.17.20037689v1

Thnx. I'm not a subscriber so can only see the abstract. End of May is still a long way away.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on March 22, 2020, 04:20:34 pm
This shouldn't be about (international) politics, but it is good to see this level of cooperation. It also raises an interesting question about dealing with each country's limited hospital resources: what if we could shift doctors and supplies from country to country, as the virus spreads across the globe?

Cuba is used to provide their doctors on the loan and at a relatively low cost. However, some of their missions, especially to South American countries can be very dangerous.

Quote
Cuba has long been renowned for its medical diplomacy - thousands of its doctors work in healthcare missions around the world, earning the country billions of dollars in cash.

With more than 30,000 Cuban doctors currently active in 67 countries - many in Latin America and Africa, but also European nations including Portugal and Italy - Cuba's authorities draw up strict rules in an attempt to prevent citizens defecting once abroad.

https://www.bbc.com/news/uk-48214513
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on March 22, 2020, 06:35:24 pm
This shouldn't be about (international) politics, but it is good to see this level of cooperation. It also raises an interesting question about dealing with each country's limited hospital resources: what if we could shift doctors and supplies from country to country, as the virus spreads across the globe?

In addition , China reported to have flown in over 20,000 kgs of urgent medical supplies and medics bringing their experience to bear. Looking at he evening reports, it looks as though the UK is still woefully behind the curve - surprise at the high % of those unwilling to even follow basic ukgov guidelines.

All eyes on the UK , but Spain is increasingly, and startlingly, vulnerable and high(er) risk.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on March 22, 2020, 06:50:49 pm
NYT and Washington Post raise blood pressure (in the US) , depending which side of the political spectrum one lies. Recommend the Guardian live blog for what, so far, seems balanced, factual, reporting.

For an ongoing 'LIVE' blog there's also The Guardian:
https://www.theguardian.com/world/live/2020/mar/22/coronavirus-news-coronavirus-live-updates-deaths-uk-italy-lockdown-spain-us-new-york-south-america
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on March 22, 2020, 07:22:44 pm
NYT and Washington Post raise blood pressure (in the US) , depending which side of the political spectrum one lies. Recommend the Guardian live blog for what, so far, seems balanced, factual, reporting.

When you are in shock that can be a good thing. Idea for a study: check if the patient is republican or democrat, and if their blood pressure gets low start quoting CNN or Fox and see how long you can postpone the initiation of vasopressors.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on March 22, 2020, 07:30:22 pm
This shouldn't be about (international) politics, but it is good to see this level of cooperation. It also raises an interesting question about dealing with each country's limited hospital resources: what if we could shift doctors and supplies from country to country, as the virus spreads across the globe?

That could work only if you start and have separate units entirely staffed by those physicians. If you want to implant them only in the areas of needs, you risk worse. They have to know the system and work with the others, which is easier said than done.

In US I doubt this would be possible. When the family is unhappy, who are they going to threaten to sue?
Joke aside (more half joke), licensing is a combination of state and federal requirements. They dropped some restrictions now and for a limited time I hear that you can work in any state as long as you have a valid license in US, similar to what the VA system does. I guess if worse come worse they could drop the requirements even more, by having the foreign physicians work only in designated covid units and have some form of oversight from US licensed physicians. Somehow I doubt this will happen.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on March 22, 2020, 08:40:25 pm
From the Economist:

Editor’s note: The Economist is making some of its most important coverage of the covid-19 pandemic freely available to readers of <The Economist Today>, our daily newsletter. To receive it, register here.

Where 'here' is , I don't know, I can't find the link - but worth browsing for it.
Title: COVID-19 - Social distancing strategies
Post by: Guillermo Luijk on March 22, 2020, 10:02:02 pm
Without a vaccine, it seems clear that only isolation (when a country or community still hasn't been infected by the virus) and social distancing (when it has) are the only valid strategies to stop proliferation of the virus.
When all this story started I wondered what's the point of isolation or very strong social distancing measures if eventually you're going to have to face the virus (vaccine is estimated to be no earlier than 12-16 months). With isolation or severe social distancing you are not exposing your population to the virus so in the end you are just postponing the problem but not its magnitude.

I have done some simulations to illustrate this:


(http://guillermoluijk.com/misc/1_donothing.png)
Quickly a huge % of the population gets infected. The situation is unsustainable in all respects with a R0=2,4 mortal virus.


(http://guillermoluijk.com/misc/2_intensivesocialdistancing.png)
Severe social distancing for 6 consecutive weeks. Infection curve gets flattened and we gain time because the infection spread is delayed by more than 2 months. BUT after that you have to face the virus again (probably imported from other countries) and most of your population has never been exposed to it, so in practical terms you start from scratch like in scenario 1.


(http://guillermoluijk.com/misc/3_spacedsocialdistancing.png)
Same 6 weeks of social distancing as in the previous escenario, but spaced in time (2 weeks social distancing + 2 weeks open). The infection curve gets flattened in three ocasions. There are important infection peaks but much more affordable than in scenario 2. Economy gets closed for the same amount of time, but allowing activity periods. Most importantly a high % of your population has got exposed to the virus so you are much better prepared to face the virus again than in 2.

In my opinion the main conclusion of this exercise is that extremely severe isolation or social distancing could in the end be both economically and from a healthcare perspective, more harmful than allowing some periods of contact of the population with the virus.

Anyone wanting to play with the simulator you can find it in: coronavirus_simulator_STRATEGIES.xlsm (http://guillermoluijk.com/datosimagensonido/coronavirus_simulator_STRATEGIES.xlsm), and a short article explaining a bit here: Flattening the coronavirus curve (https://www.datosimagensonido.com/2020/03/aplanando-la-curva-del-coronavirus.html).

(http://guillermoluijk.com/datosimagensonido/coronavirus_simulator_STRATEGIES.png) (http://guillermoluijk.com/datosimagensonido/coronavirus_simulator_STRATEGIES.xlsm)

Regards
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on March 23, 2020, 05:26:25 am
Without a vaccine, it seems clear that only isolation (when a country or community still hasn't been infected by the virus) and social distancing (when it has) are the only valid strategies to stop proliferation of the virus ... With isolation or severe social distancing you are not exposing your population to the virus so in the end you are just postponing the problem but not its magnitude.
[...]
Same 6 weeks of social distancing as in the previous escenario, but spaced in time (2 weeks social distancing + 2 weeks open). The infection curve gets flattened in three ocasions....Economy gets closed for the same amount of time, but allowing activity periods. Most importantly a high % of your population has got exposed to the virus so you are much better prepared to face the virus again than in 2.

In my opinion the main conclusion of this exercise is that extremely severe isolation or social distancing could in the end be both economically and from a healthcare perspective, more harmful than allowing some periods of contact of the population with the virus.


I think your cocnclusion is on track but you make an assumption that, AFAIK, is NOT a given. China, Japan and South Korea have reported cases of people testing positive for the coronavirus, recovering, being released from care and then later testing positive a second time. Evidence suggests that the virus can persist in the body for several weeks after recovery, so it may be that these patients still tested positive but were not reinfected, However, we still know very little about how the human immune system responds to SARS-CoV-2, and whether those who have been infected develop lasting immunity.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on March 23, 2020, 05:34:04 am
Among places where the death toll has reached three figures, Britain is an outlier, largely disregarding social distancing. On March 20th mobility in London, Manchester and Birmingham hovered around 25% of normal levels. New York was at 10%, with Rome, Paris and Madrid all at 5% or below.

(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49689879592_6aea62989a_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/2iGVC2W)
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on March 23, 2020, 07:42:25 am
paywalled...

Apparently not any more ...
https://www.ft.com/content/a26fbf7e-48f8-11ea-aeb3-955839e06441
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on March 23, 2020, 07:49:30 am
CGTN America

Coronavirus Vaccine - early summer (June) for first human clinical trials ?
INOVIO California (note: she's Scottish)

https://youtu.be/5hn5Vjrq_wY
https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/the-scientist-racing-to-find-a-vaccine-to-the-coronavirus-g5qjkj8q6
Google search 'Kate Broderick' - plenty on her

Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on March 23, 2020, 07:57:22 am
Updated:

(https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-eu.s3.amazonaws.com%2Ffca9a1c2-6cec-11ea-89df-41bea055720b?fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=1200)
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on March 23, 2020, 08:38:19 am

I think your cocnclusion is on track but you make an assumption that, AFAIK, is NOT a given. China, Japan and South Korea have reported cases of people testing positive for the coronavirus, recovering, being released from care and then later testing positive a second time. Evidence suggests that the virus can persist in the body for several weeks after recovery, so it may be that these patients still tested positive but were not reinfected, However, we still know very little about how the human immune system responds to SARS-CoV-2, and whether those who have been infected develop lasting immunity.

You are right, still many unknowns.
The long lasting immunity is a question without a clear answer yet.
Regarding being positive again, I think those cases were just tested again too early (or maybe it's wishful thinking on my part). It appears many are still shedding viral RNA, not necessarily being infected or infectious.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on March 23, 2020, 09:27:01 am
You are right, still many unknowns.
The long lasting immunity is a question without a clear answer yet.
Regarding being positive again, I think those cases were just tested again too early (or maybe it's wishful thinking on my part). It appears many are still shedding viral RNA, not necessarily being infected or infectious.

During Sam Harris's podcast interview (No. 191) Dr. Amesh Adalja mde 2 statements about this. This is now 2-week old information, it may have been superseded by now.

He thought that the very early reports that it was possible to be re-infected by Covid-19 very soon after a first infection appear to be false negatives and have not been borne out over time. His opinion was that if you get it, you're protected for some period.

He also thought that the immunization against it from having been sick once is likely to be long-lasting, more akin to the behaviour of measles than of seasonal flu or colds.

That part of the podcast was an abbreviated conversation and so did not give details about why he thought this. It's on-going of course, it would be interesting to hear his opinions today, assuming we have enough new valid data on the subject.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on March 23, 2020, 12:43:33 pm
I think we are surpassing Italy, as expected (based on total population at least)
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on March 23, 2020, 02:49:58 pm
I think we are surpassing Italy, as expected (based on total population at least)

Both USA and UK entering a critical phase. Next 10 days ...
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on March 23, 2020, 08:45:33 pm
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/16/who-considers-airborne-precautions-for-medical-staff-after-study-shows-coronavirus-can-survive-in-air.html?fbclid=IwAR0LPGCmP1B7GMxZCxS1t_riDcyQLdjWqYQrbYyYKldrLkqi7fr31dKZiII

Aerosolization is a bitch
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on March 23, 2020, 09:02:50 pm
Thanks , Armand. Reading thru it seems there’s a new dynamic.
KEY POINTS
1/ The coronavirus can survive on surfaces for up to 17 days, a study published Monday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention says.
2/ The study examines two public health responses to COVID-19 outbreaks on the Carnival-owned Diamond Princess ship in Japan and the Grand Princess ship in California.
3/ The virus “was identified on a variety of surfaces in cabins of both symptomatic and asymptomatic infected passengers up to 17 days after cabins were vacated...” the researchers wrote.

Bummer.
17 days ...
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on March 23, 2020, 09:16:40 pm
Lasting 17 days is good for the virus, but a real quagmire for the humanity.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 24, 2020, 12:05:24 am
Virus increasing rapidly in Italy, Spain and UK. Indeed, and also the death curves are steepening.

Interestingly, Taiwan has it under control. They instituted early the tests, and they have also the necessary protective equipment. So far, only 162 cases with 2 deaths. All this without any lockdown. The stores and restaurants are still open and kids still go to school.
What do tests with low rates of infection?  If there is no lockdown, and stores and restaurants are open, what accounts for no or little transmission and infection?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 24, 2020, 12:07:13 am
I read a technical paper the other day from a group of Italian and Greek data analysts and they are looking at the end of May for a fade out of new cases.  It's very math heavy but if you are interested, here is the link: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.03.17.20037689v1
Forget the math.  Can you summarize in a short statement why it's ending in May?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on March 24, 2020, 12:14:27 am
What do tests with low rates of infection?  If there is no lockdown, and stores and restaurants are open, what accounts for no or little transmission and infection?

Testing is the first step in isolating virus carriers. Once you have the results, you can decide what to do with the test subjects.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 24, 2020, 12:18:44 am
Testing is the first step in isolating virus carriers. Once you have the results, you can decide what to do with the test subjects.
Les, they only tested a tiny portion of the whole population.  So that does 't address the main issue.  If there is no lockdown, and stores and restaurants were open, what accounts for no or little transmission and infection?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on March 24, 2020, 12:24:55 am
Les, they only tested a tiny portion of the whole population.  So that does 't address the main issue.  If there is no lockdown, and stores and restaurants were open, what accounts for no or little transmission and infection?

Taking the virus carriers out of circulation is the best way to prevent further spread of infections. It seems to work for them.
If they isolate the carriers, the lockdowns are not required.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 24, 2020, 12:43:07 am
Taking the virus carriers out of circulation is the best way to prevent further spread of infections. It seems to work for them.
If they isolate the carriers, the lockdowns are not required.
Taiwan only tested 21,376 people as of 20 Mar.  They have a population of around 24 million.  That means they tested about one person out of 1100.  How could they catch carriers when testing was only 1/10 of 1%?  So how did they stop the spread with nothing shut down?  Either they lied or something else is going on that limited the disease there.  Is this disease being overestimated in certain areas as to the damage it causes?  If so, why?  It may give us answer to how to stop this thing.  No one seems to be addressing it.  It just seems all political rather than scientific.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing-source-data
https://www.google.com/search?q=taiwan+population&rlz=1C1CHBD_enUS746US746&oq=taiwan+population&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l7.3637j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: texshooter on March 24, 2020, 12:49:23 am

It's time to
  Test and Arrest.

(https://bloximages.chicago2.vip.townnews.com/emissourian.com/content/tncms/assets/v3/editorial/b/10/b10d948e-4c1d-11e0-865e-001cc4c03286/4d7a853323ef9.image.jpg?resize=400%2C267)
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on March 24, 2020, 12:50:39 am
Taiwan only tested 21,376 people as of 20 Mar.  They have a population of around 24 million.  That means they tested about one person out of 1100.  How could they catch carriers when testing was only 1/10 of 1%?  So how did they stop the spread with nothing shut down?  Either they lied or something else is going on that limited the disease there.  Is this disease being overestimated in certain areas as to the damage it causes?  If so, why?  It may give us answer to how to stop this thing.  No one seems to be addressing it.  It just seems all political rather than scientific.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing-source-data
https://www.google.com/search?q=taiwan+population&rlz=1C1CHBD_enUS746US746&oq=taiwan+population&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l7.3637j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

They caught the initial carriers and stopped further infections. Also, they learned from their SARS experience.

Quote
Despite its closeness to China, physically and in economic terms, Taiwan has had extraordinary success in controlling the coronavirus. Efforts may have been helped by the Sars experience, and the fact that the vice-president is an epidemiologist.

Taiwan was probably the first country to try to stop coronavirus spreading, bringing in checks on travellers from Wuhan at the end of December, after reports of a mystery, pneumonia-like illness.

A command centre for epidemics kicked into action in late January, producing new policies and monitoring virus-tracking and treatment efforts. Wider travel restrictions on people coming from mainland China were introduced despite the insistence of the World Health Organization (WHO) that they were not necessary. Extensive testing and contact-tracing through the public health system prevented the disease spreading.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/experience-of-sars-key-factor-in-response-to-coronavirus
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 24, 2020, 12:58:00 am
They had to be awful lucky that none of the carriers infected others before being found.  What about their SARS experience did they learn that could be useful to us? 

What concern me is that NYS Gov Cuomo said he expected 40-80% of New Yorker to get the disease bud that it's important to lower the curve.  He also says like Trump we have to do something because NY can't handle the economic problem by locking down commerce.  But what I want to know is how come he made that statement about the 40-80%?  Who did he speak too?  What does he know that he made that statement?  It's really scary.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on March 24, 2020, 04:33:44 am
Forget the math.  Can you summarize in a short statement why it's ending in May?

I can. It isn’t.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on March 24, 2020, 05:11:13 am
updated 23-March 2100

(https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-eu.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fec8aa6bc-6d58-11ea-89df-41bea055720b?fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=1260)
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on March 24, 2020, 05:47:10 am
(https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-eu.s3.amazonaws.com%2Fe5def62e-6d58-11ea-89df-41bea055720b?fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=1100)xx
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 24, 2020, 08:49:05 am
I think the chart would look different if was not based on absolute numbers but rather as a percent of the population.  The fact NYC is gaining so many deaths compared to other cities has to be examined in light of it's population of 8 1/2 million.  The New YorK Metropolitan Area that has been affected so greatly has a total population of over 20 million in an area about 100 x 130 miles. 

Infection rates are more revealing I believe than absolute numbers.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: PeterAit on March 24, 2020, 10:05:59 am
I think the chart would look different if was not based on absolute numbers but rather as a percent of the population.  The fact NYC is gaining so many deaths compared to other cities has to be examined in light of it's population of 8 1/2 million.  The New YorK Metropolitan Area that has been affected so greatly has a total population of over 20 million in an area about 100 x 130 miles. 

Infection rates are more revealing I believe than absolute numbers.

Exactly correct.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on March 24, 2020, 10:22:46 am
Forget the math.  Can you summarize in a short statement why it's ending in May?
Social distancing allows the number of infections to naturally decay.  Italy has seen a decrease in total case for the past three days.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on March 24, 2020, 10:47:05 am
I think the chart would look different if was not based on absolute numbers but rather as a percent of the population.  [...] Infection rates are more revealing I believe than absolute numbers.

The total deaths are a measure of change. The SLOPE of the line is what 'they' are concentrating on.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on March 24, 2020, 10:58:20 am
The total deaths are a measure of change. The SLOPE of the line is what 'they' are concentrating on.

Indeed. Data from a few minutes ago, compilede here:

https://expresso.pt/coronavirus/2020-03-24-Infografia-covid-19.-Como-compara-Portugal-com-os-paises-mais-afetados--Menos-mal-mas-nao-para-descansar

It's in Portuguese, but the graph is self explanatory. You can hover with the mouse on a curve to see the country. The slope measures the rate of growth. Portugal is sort of middle-ground. Countries in the blue lines seem to be flattening the curve, or decreasing the growth rate, which is good.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on March 24, 2020, 11:44:31 am
In countries like Portugal and Spain, it is clear the isolation measures have dcereased the growth rate from around 30-40% a day to around 15-20% a day. This potentially means morelives can be saved. Spain took those measures further along the curve, while here in Portugal we took them earlier. Even though the curves show similar trend, I think we will reach a lower peak compared to Spain.

In the article, USA and Turkey are mentioned as very worrisome cases in the short term.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 24, 2020, 01:23:32 pm
The total deaths are a measure of change. The SLOPE of the line is what 'they' are concentrating on.
But the chart is comparing areas that have different populations.  Naturally there would be more deaths in higher populated areas than less.  That makes NYC look worse but may not be necessarily so.  It's the infection rate that determines in which area it's spreading faster.  I think that;s a better determinant of which area is in greater danger.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 24, 2020, 01:26:03 pm
Indeed. Data from a few minutes ago, compilede here:

https://expresso.pt/coronavirus/2020-03-24-Infografia-covid-19.-Como-compara-Portugal-com-os-paises-mais-afetados--Menos-mal-mas-nao-para-descansar

It's in Portuguese, but the graph is self explanatory. You can hover with the mouse on a curve to see the country. The slope measures the rate of growth. Portugal is sort of middle-ground. Countries in the blue lines seem to be flattening the curve, or decreasing the growth rate, which is good.
That's looks like a good chart.  But I could barely access it. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on March 24, 2020, 01:43:02 pm
But the chart is comparing areas that have different populations.  Naturally there would be more deaths in higher populated areas than less.  That makes NYC look worse but may not be necessarily so.  It's the infection rate that determines in which area it's spreading faster.  I think that;s a better determinant of which area is in greater danger.

Exactly - which is why they're looking at how quickly the death rate is doubling.
Infection (those who test positive, is still an unreiable number) so they're using 'deaths'.

Post #46. What we want is for NY to move to the right , towards California & Washington and for the slope to flatten (less incremental deaths). Look at the fan lines that delineate 'deaths doubling' every two, three days ... every week.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 24, 2020, 02:50:58 pm
Exactly - which is why they're looking at how quickly the death rate is doubling.
Infection (those who test positive, is still an unreiable number) so they're using 'deaths'.

Post #46. What we want is for NY to move to the right , towards California & Washington and for the slope to flatten (less incremental deaths). Look at the fan lines that delineate 'deaths doubling' every two, three days ... every week.
It may be doubling, but since it such a small part of the whole population, decisions about what to do must be made with that consideration.  If 100,000 New Yorkers eventually wind up with the virus, well that's only around 1%.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on March 24, 2020, 03:09:48 pm
It may be doubling, but since it such a small part of the whole population, decisions about what to do must be made with that consideration.  If 100,000 New Yorkers eventually wind up with the virus, well that's only around 1%.

think about the compounding effect.
As of today, the global daily rise in infection is 35,000 and 2,000 in new deaths. By the weekend, there will be globally 25,000 dead and over 500,000 infections.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 24, 2020, 04:27:56 pm
think about the compounding effect.
As of today, the global daily rise in infection is 35,000 and 2,000 in new deaths. By the weekend, there will be globally 25,000 dead and over 500,000 infections.
A terrible number.  But it's leveling off in a lot of the early countries.  No?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on March 24, 2020, 04:34:57 pm
yes, in some countries. But increasing in most. Global death count for today: 2064
By country:
Italy - 743
USA - 120
Spain - 489
France - 240
Iran - 122
UK - 87
Netherlands - 63
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 24, 2020, 04:43:57 pm
yes, in some countries. But increasing in most. Global death count for today: 2064
By country:
Italy - 743
USA - 120
Spain - 489
France - 240
Iran - 122
UK - 87
Netherlands - 63
As bad as those number look, they're no wheres near the annual flu deaths.  I think one of the keys to this thing is whether it will die out naturally in the Spring which is around the corner.  Additionally, we should have experts in Taiwan, So Korea and CHina meeting with officials over there to see what they did.  I assume we're doing that.  But who knows.  Morons work for the government. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: faberryman on March 24, 2020, 04:50:48 pm
Morons work for the government.
At all levels.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on March 24, 2020, 04:51:42 pm
As bad as those number look, they're no wheres near the annual flu deaths.  I think one of the keys to this thing is whether it will die out naturally in the Spring which is around the corner.  Additionally, we should have experts in Taiwan, So Korea and CHina meeting with officials over there to see what they did.  I assume we're doing that.  But who knows.  Morons work for the government.

You can't keep politics out of anything, can you?
We know what others countries did, it's not really a secret.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on March 24, 2020, 04:54:24 pm
At all levels.

also in the private industry.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: elliot_n on March 24, 2020, 05:02:23 pm
As bad as those number look, they're no wheres near the annual flu deaths.

Alan those are daily numbers. Much worse than flu.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on March 24, 2020, 06:09:34 pm
As bad as those number look, they're no wheres near the annual flu deaths.

If you multiply these numbers by 365, the deaths stats be worse than flu.
If you allow for linear growth (or gentle bell curve) and six more months, it will look much worse.
In case of rapid exponential growth (the current trend) and a few more months, you don't even want to know.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 24, 2020, 09:36:05 pm
If you multiply these numbers by 365, the deaths stats be worse than flu.
If you allow for linear growth (or gentle bell curve) and six more months, it will look much worse.
In case of rapid exponential growth (the current trend) and a few more months, you don't even want to know.
We're going to find out very soon.  But what have Taiwan and China and So. Korea done that we can't do?  If they really have a handle on it, and there won't be a spike there, we should be copying their methods.  Of course, can we really trust the Chinese?  They lied about the virus that they had it.  Had they been up front, the rest of the world could have got a jump on it.  But all that's water over the dam.  Can we get real data as to their and other procedures where stopping this thing is really working.  I'm only 50 miles from NYC which is getting most of the numbers.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on March 25, 2020, 04:06:30 am
That's looks like a good chart.  But I could barely access it.

Alan,

It is an interactive plot. I have saved it as a JPEG and added a few labels. On the X-axis, are the number of days after reaching 100 cases, this is an indicator used by scientists. On the Y-axis (log) is the number of cases.

Portugal is the black line, I have labeled USA and Turkey, they have the highest growth rate, almost doubling the cases every 2 days.

Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on March 25, 2020, 04:17:37 am
We're going to find out very soon.  But what have Taiwan and China and So. Korea done that we can't do?  If they really have a handle on it, and there won't be a spike there, we should be copying their methods.  Of course, can we really trust the Chinese?  They lied about the virus that they had it.  Had they been up front, the rest of the world could have got a jump on it.  But all that's water over the dam.  Can we get real data as to their and other procedures where stopping this thing is really working.  I'm only 50 miles from NYC which is getting most of the numbers.

What they did is no secret: strict quarantine, and massive testing, VERY EARLY ON. That is the secret, to precvent contagion from the beginning. The virus R0 (infection ratio) is normally between 3 and 4. 1 person can infect 3 or 4; each one of those 3 or 4 will then infect another 3 or 4 and so on. Quarantining after the virus is freely spreading in the community has a much lower effect in arresting the exponential growth rate.

In Spain and Italy, they were too late. In Portugal, after about 10 days of staying at home, growth rate has decreased to 15%, which is good. The current R0 is about 1.5. The problm here is the older population staying in care homes - a lot of those homes have been found out to be infected, especially the people taking care of the old folks... it will be a disaster.

I don't want to mention politics again, but clearly some of the key decision makers were in denial until very recently. The efficient measures need to be taken on time, now it will be too late to have a big impact. Again countries have learned a lot from their experience with SARS epidemic in 2002 - 2003, so they acted immediately.

Yes, China were late in admiting the problem and warning the World. But governments everywhere were slow in adopting efficeint measures on time.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Martin Kristiansen on March 25, 2020, 05:44:36 am
709 confirmed cases in South Africa as of today. Growing rapidly with the shutdown due to begin tomorrow. I’m all set. What’s very weird to me is not one death. I personally know someone who tested positive for it and is now already fine. Japan has 1200 infections and 43 deaths(more or less). Why has no one died of it yet in South Africa I wonder? I feel like we are in the edge of a cliff.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 25, 2020, 06:28:24 am
Alan,

It is an interactive plot. I have saved it as a JPEG and added a few labels. On the X-axis, are the number of days after reaching 100 cases, this is an indicator used by scientists. On the Y-axis (log) is the number of cases.

Portugal is the black line, I have labeled USA and Turkey, they have the highest growth rate, almost doubling the cases every 2 days.


Thanks for that.    It does appear the US is going up more sharply. However, it's hard to tell just looking at the chart which distorts the criteria depending how it's structured.  I wonder if a chart that show rates against the population would be better? Also, I heard that 60% of the new cases in America are coming just from NYC. So what's going on in the rest of the country.  On the positive side, it also appears that most lines seems to be flattening.   A few seem really flat but who knows how accurate they are?  Some government may be lying about the numbers.  They're really upped the amount of testing in the US.  I think we'll have better data pretty soon.

I see Japan put off the Olympics for one year.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on March 25, 2020, 06:50:08 am
Thanks for that.    It does appear the US is going up more sharply. However, it's hard to tell just looking at the chart which distorts the criteria depending how it's structured.  I wonder if a chart that show rates against the population would be better? Also, I heard that 60% of the new cases in America are coming just from NYC. So what's going on in the rest of the country.  On the positive side, it also appears that most lines seems to be flattening.   A few seem really flat but who knows how accurate they are?  Some government may be lying about the numbers.  They're really upped the amount of testing in the US.  I think we'll have better data pretty soon.

Yes, the US Covid-19 infection rate is very steep. It's almost like the reproduction rate of hippos in Columbia. In the 90's Pablo Escobar brought 4 hippos to Columbia, and now there are almost 100 of them roaming the country. It is estimated that if left unchecked, within 20 years there could be thousands of hippos in Colombia.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: PeterAit on March 25, 2020, 10:00:38 am
Just as an FYI:


It's been suggested that you leave delivered packages on the porch for 24 hours before bringing them in and opening.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on March 25, 2020, 10:21:42 am
Just as an FYI:

  • The virus stays infectious on cardboard for ~24 hours
  • Amazon warehouse workers have been testing positive
  • Many delivery drivers have been going to work sick because they fear they will lose their jobs if they call in

It's been suggested that you leave delivered packages on the porch for 24 hours before bringing them in and opening.

That's probably reasonable. If you have to open it immediately wipe the box with some bleach and wash hands after you open the box and before you take the contents out. It might be a good idea to wipe the inside boxes too, even if theoretically they should have been untouched for 48h plus. I need a little more insight on how and where the Coronavirus survived for 17 days in the cruise ship because that's a very long time. Also surviving in just detectable quantities doesn't necessarily mean it will easily infect.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 25, 2020, 10:21:48 am
Just as an FYI:

  • The virus stays infectious on cardboard for ~24 hours
  • Amazon warehouse workers have been testing positive
  • Many delivery drivers have been going to work sick because they fear they will lose their jobs if they call in

It's been suggested that you leave delivered packages on the porch for 24 hours before bringing them in and opening.
I put gloves on then handle the package.  I spray it with alcohol mist.  Then open it and spray the inside stuff.  After all the inside stuff was handled by someone somewhere too.  How healthy are they?  Then I dumpr the gloves right into the garbage can.  I leave the carton in the garage for the weekly pickup of cartons.

Frankly, the odds are better in Las Vegas. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 25, 2020, 10:23:35 am
What do you guys do when you shop for food in the supervirusmarket, Costco, or where ever?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on March 25, 2020, 10:29:21 am
Our local chain updated it's store policies with dedicated hours for elederly and first responders: https://www.meijer.com/covid19response.html
So I'm using it.
When I get home I wash the fruits that have been outside of a bag and give a wipe with a soap saturated towel to the boxes of food, etc. Wash after and that's it. It try to give a thorough rinse to the salads and similar.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on March 25, 2020, 10:51:17 am
Thanks for that.    It does appear the US is going up more sharply. However, it's hard to tell just looking at the chart which distorts the criteria depending how it's structured.  I wonder if a chart that show rates against the population would be better? Also, I heard that 60% of the new cases in America are coming just from NYC. So what's going on in the rest of the country.  On the positive side, it also appears that most lines seems to be flattening.   A few seem really flat but who knows how accurate they are?  Some government may be lying about the numbers.  They're really upped the amount of testing in the US.  I think we'll have better data pretty soon.

I see Japan put off the Olympics for one year.

The steep growth period seems to last for 3 - 4 weeks, with the rate depending on measures in place. These epidemic curves are very well documented in literature, they follow a "sigmoid" shape or "S" shape. following those 3 - 4 weeks, typically we can expect another 3 - 4 weeks of a plateu period. Then finally it starts to come down.

Here in Portugal we expect the peak to be reached mid- April, and the thing to dimmer end-May.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on March 25, 2020, 10:53:51 am
What do you guys do when you shop for food in the supervirusmarket, Costco, or where ever?
The stores here have senior hours early in the morning.  That's the only time I go.  The local Whole Foods has almost everything in stock.  Not so with Safeway and Giant.  Whole Foods also checks ID at the door and won't let anyone under 60 in the store.  I keep my distance and use the wipes the store has.  I wash my hands when I get home.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on March 25, 2020, 10:55:32 am
What do you guys do when you shop for food in the supervirusmarket, Costco, or where ever?

We have a policy of 4 people per 100m2 in the supermarkets. Once I leave the house, Inever bring myhands to my face, and use sleeves to open door handles. When I return home, I leave the shoes outside, take off my "street" clothes, basically I have a "dirty" area in the hall of my house.

I thouroughly wash my hands before putting on my "home" clothes, and leave the groceries sitting for a few hours.

It's just common sense really.

Take care.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on March 25, 2020, 11:11:29 am
NO! longer ...
NEJM ( New England Journal of Medicine) reported that Covid-19 can linger in the air for hours and on some materials for days; far longer than previously thought. Cardboard and plastic are closer to 48 & 72 hours.

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/03/19/how-long-can-the-novel-coronavirus-survive-on-surfaces-and-in-the-air
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973

(https://www.economist.com/img/b/800/516/85/sites/default/files/20200321_WOC833.png)

Just as an FYI:

  • The virus stays infectious on cardboard for ~24 hours
  • Amazon warehouse workers have been testing positive
  • Many delivery drivers have been going to work sick because they fear they will lose their jobs if they call in

It's been suggested that you leave delivered packages on the porch for 24 hours before bringing them in and opening.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on March 25, 2020, 11:36:12 am
NO!
NEJM ( New England Journal of Medivine) reported that Covid-19 can linger in the air for hours and on some materials for days; far longer than previously thought. Cardboard and plastic are closer to 24 & 72 hours.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2004973

I read the paper when it first came out as a pre-print maybe two weeks ago.  While the data are interesting, it's not clear how transferable they are to what one sees in the real world.  I don't know what type of aersols are generated when someone coughs or sneezes.  Sneezing would seem to me to propel aerosols further as there is more air expelled and at a faster rate.  It is also important to know what the viral load is in sputum as that seems to me far more dangerous as the nose really doesn't deliver aerosols.

With respect to contaminated surfaces, it depends on the viral load on the surface.  You are not going to get infected by touching a surface that has virus on it unless you transfer the virus to your mouth, nose or eyes which would be principal modes of entry to the body and eventually the lungs.  Also remember that these were lab experiments where they were deliberately swabbing surfaces to see if virus could be recovered and cultured.  they are measuring infection in tissue culture which may or may not be relevant to the human exposure route.  Yhe amount of virus recovered was less with time in all the surface experiments.  Here is what they say about cardboard, "On cardboard, no viable SARS-CoV-2 was measured after 24 hours"  Most cardboard is porous and it may actually inhibit transfer of virus to hands.

Prudent practice remains - wash your hands!!!!!
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 25, 2020, 11:39:14 am
The stores here have senior hours early in the morning.  That's the only time I go.  The local Whole Foods has almost everything in stock.  Not so with Safeway and Giant.  Whole Foods also checks ID at the door and won't let anyone under 60 in the store.  I keep my distance and use the wipes the store has.  I wash my hands when I get home.
That what I do.  Then I go back and spray the door knobs with alcohol.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 25, 2020, 11:40:32 am
We have a policy of 4 people per 100m2 in the supermarkets. Once I leave the house, Inever bring myhands to my face, and use sleeves to open door handles. When I return home, I leave the shoes outside, take off my "street" clothes, basically I have a "dirty" area in the hall of my house.

I thouroughly wash my hands before putting on my "home" clothes, and leave the groceries sitting for a few hours.

It's just common sense really.

Take care.
How do you deal with fresh produce, meats, etc?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on March 25, 2020, 12:04:38 pm
While the data are interesting, it's not clear how transferable they are to what one sees in the real world. ....  You are not going to get infected by touching a surface that has virus on it unless you transfer the virus to your mouth, nose or eyes which would be principal modes of entry to the body and eventually the lungs.  Also remember that these were lab experiments ...

The latest data or should I say 'thoughts' , specifically relating to the cruise ships, indicated that the virus was active and persistant far longer than previously thought and contagion was, to a great extent , due to persistence on surfaces, bannisters , table tops , seat covers , arms etc etc

It may not be evidence, yet, but in today's circumstances, wiser to heed words of warning. Too much is still unknown and if empirical evidence points one way, I'd follow it until it's proven to be untrue.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: kers on March 25, 2020, 02:45:38 pm
The latest data or should I say 'thoughts' , specifically relating to the cruise ships, indicated that the virus was active and persistant far longer than previously thought and contagion was, to a great extent , due to persistence on surfaces, bannisters , table tops , seat covers , arms etc etc

It may not be evidence, yet, but in today's circumstances, wiser to heed words of warning. Too much is still unknown and if empirical evidence points one way, I'd follow it until it's proven to be untrue.
In the Netherlands this 'news' was not taken as valid.
Maybe the virus was still there, but they think it was not complete and therefore dangerous anymore.
IOW they thought the had done an DNA test that recognised the virus, without checking if it was still active and dangerous.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on March 25, 2020, 03:07:43 pm
How to clean your food: https://youtu.be/sjDuwc9KBps
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: texshooter on March 25, 2020, 11:49:54 pm

Is there any proof this works?

(https://www.koin.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2020/03/coronavirus-new-seasons-social-distancing-dots-03232020.jpg?w=638)
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 26, 2020, 12:26:13 am
Is there any proof this works?

(https://www.koin.com/wp-content/uploads/sites/10/2020/03/coronavirus-new-seasons-social-distancing-dots-03232020.jpg?w=638)
That design could help some marriages I know. :)
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Jeremy Roussak on March 26, 2020, 05:18:40 am
Is there any proof this works?

"works" in what way? Does keeping people about 2m apart reduce the likelihood of transmission? Probably. Does painting orange circles on the pavement help to keep people 2m apart? The photo seems to suggest that it might.

Jeremy
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on March 26, 2020, 05:48:36 am
How do you deal with fresh produce, meats, etc?

According to our health authorities, fruit and vegetables are ok. Stiil, I wash them as I normally used to do anyway, with water and soap, before storing them. I basically wash everything, but I am used to do it anyway.

I also leave shopping bags in a "dirty area" for 1 day.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on March 26, 2020, 06:30:56 am
Interesting chart re: Covid-19 age distribution in Canada - showing most infections in 30-70 years range:

(https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/phac-aspc/images/services/diseases-maladies/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/health-professionals/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases/fig-4-eng.jpg)

more charts and analysis:
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/health-professionals/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on March 26, 2020, 06:56:19 am
Data collected by a specialist in AI and statistics in Portugal, Francisco Restivo, see attached plot from 2 days ago. Number of cases per 100,000 people.

Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 26, 2020, 10:33:51 am
According to our health authorities, fruit and vegetables are ok. Stiil, I wash them as I normally used to do anyway, with water and soap, before storing them. I basically wash everything, but I am used to do it anyway.

I also leave shopping bags in a "dirty area" for 1 day.
Thanks.  I just washed bananas and oranges with soap and water and rinsed them off.  All the glass , plastic, cardboard and other grocery items were cleaned off with Lysol Disinfectant sprayed into a couple of paper towels and wiped off with it.   I have to start wearing Nitrile rubber gloves more often.   I'm getting homemaker hands.  :)
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 26, 2020, 10:36:08 am
Interesting chart re: Covid-19 age distribution in Canada - showing most infections in 30-70 years range:

(https://www.canada.ca/content/dam/phac-aspc/images/services/diseases-maladies/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/health-professionals/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases/fig-4-eng.jpg)

more charts and analysis:
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/health-professionals/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html

I'm 75.  Maybe I should move to Canada and be safe.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: John Camp on March 26, 2020, 11:07:49 am
Johns Hopkins site now lists more than 1,000 dead in US.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on March 26, 2020, 11:23:54 am
I'm 75.  Maybe I should move to Canada and be safe.

Not really. Mortality rate increases quite a lot above 70 years old... as of today there are ~3,500cases in Portugal, 60 dead. 11 dead below 70 years old.

Regarding the age distribution, from what I have seen thus far, it is very similar to other countries, almost a normal distribution.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on March 26, 2020, 11:24:50 am
I'm 75.  Maybe I should move to Canada and be safe.
I gather, one reason for the small percentage of the over 70 year old people in that chart is that they don't go out as much as the younger group. Especially in the winter.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on March 26, 2020, 11:37:06 am
Not quite a normal flu...

https://www.facebook.com/mc.somsen.5/videos/2479878538929240/
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 26, 2020, 11:37:37 am
I gather, one reason for the small percentage of the over 70 year old people in that chart is that they don't go out as much as the younger group. Especially in the winter.
In Canada, there's roughly 7 times the population of 30-70 years old as there are over 70.
https://www150.statcan.gc.ca/t1/tbl1/en/tv.action?pid=1710000501
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on March 26, 2020, 11:41:39 am
According to our health authorities, fruit and vegetables are ok. Stiil, I wash them as I normally used to do anyway, with water and soap, before storing them. I basically wash everything, but I am used to do it anyway.

I also leave shopping bags in a "dirty area" for 1 day.

Thanks.  I just washed bananas and oranges with soap and water and rinsed them off.  All the glass , plastic, cardboard and other grocery items were cleaned off with Lysol Disinfectant sprayed into a couple of paper towels and wiped off with it.   I have to start wearing Nitrile rubber gloves more often.   I'm getting homemaker hands.  :)

See the YouTube link I posted on the previous
How to clean your food: https://youtu.be/sjDuwc9KBps
page, the guy is pretty thorough.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 26, 2020, 11:42:30 am
Not quite a normal flu...

https://www.facebook.com/mc.somsen.5/videos/2479878538929240/

My point is that Covid will die out like flu does every year.  Regard deaths, that chart of yours only shows 72 days.  Flu killed 500,000 worldwide last year, 50,000 in America alone with 34,000,000 infected.  Covid-19, as bad as it is, doesn;t seem to be on the same destructive path. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 26, 2020, 11:46:34 am
See the YouTube link I posted on the previous page, the guy is pretty thorough.
Yes, he is.  Thanks for that video, Armand.  I watched the whole thing and followed his suggestions.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on March 26, 2020, 11:50:15 am
My point is that Covid will die out like flu does every year.  Regard deaths, that chart of yours only shows 72 days.  Flu killed 500,000 worldwide last year, 50,000 in America alone with 34,000,000 infected.  Covid-19, as bad as it is, doesn;t seem to be on the same destructive path.

Actually, if the current trend continues, Covid-10 is on a much more destructive path. In the other related thread, I posted some projections with millions of deaths before the summer.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Slobodan Blagojevic on March 26, 2020, 01:05:11 pm
A question: say you were in self-isolation for 14 days. It that period, the symptoms were gradually disappearing, and on day 15-16, you can say you are symptom-free. How long after that you could still be contagious? An extra week? Two? What does science say?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Jeremy Roussak on March 26, 2020, 01:21:00 pm
My point is that Covid will die out like flu does every year.

You've added predictive virology to your fields of expertise, have you? On what do you base "my point"?

Jeremy
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Chris Kern on March 26, 2020, 01:36:42 pm
A question: say you were in self-isolation for 14 days. It that period, the symptoms were gradually disappearing, and on day 15-16, you can say you are symptom-free. How long after that you could still be contagious?

I've attached a screen capture of the current guidance (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/if-you-are-sick/care-for-someone.html) from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 26, 2020, 01:37:22 pm
You've added predictive virology to your fields of expertise, have you? On what do you base "my point"?

Jeremy
The charts for one.  They appear to be flattening out, turning a corner.  Plus some experts have said deaths seem to be declining in areas that were hit earlier.  So based on the curves and time frames in the charts,  NYC should level off in a couple of weeks then start going down.  So based on those things, my estimate is the whole thing will fade out in 4 or 5 weeks or so.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on March 26, 2020, 01:51:06 pm
The charts for one.  They appear to be flattening out, turning a corner.  Plus some experts have said deaths seem to be declining in areas that were hit earlier.  So based on the curves and time frames in the charts,  NYC should level off in a couple of weeks then start going down.  So based on those things, my estimate is the whole thing will fade out in 4 or 5 weeks or so.

Bill Gates believes that America needs six to 10 weeks of “extreme shutdown” to get a handle on the coronavirus outbreak (or COVID-19), indirectly criticizing comments from President Trump.

Quote
“It’s very irresponsible for somebody to suggest we can have the best of both worlds,” Gates emphasized in an interview with TED on Tuesday. “What we need is the extreme shutdown, so that in six to 10 weeks, if things go well, then you can start opening back up.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bill-gates-on-coronavirus-161803530.html
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 26, 2020, 01:59:53 pm
Bill Gates believes that America needs six to 10 weeks of “extreme shutdown” to get a handle on the coronavirus outbreak (or COVID-19), indirectly criticizing comments from President Trump.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bill-gates-on-coronavirus-161803530.html
What does he care?  He's worth $80 billion dollars and can afford to take a couple of weeks off. In any case, his guess is as good as mine. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 26, 2020, 02:02:17 pm
In any case, Gates' guess is not much different than mine.  I said 4-5 weeks, he said 6-10 weeks.  Maybe Les you're right and it will be 2021.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Slobodan Blagojevic on March 26, 2020, 02:11:51 pm
I've attached a screen capture of the current guidance (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/if-you-are-sick/care-for-someone.html) from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Thanks, Chris, much appreciated. Based on that, it seems I can get out. But I won't. Not yet.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on March 26, 2020, 02:13:15 pm
In any case, Gates' guess is not much different than mine.  I said 4-5 weeks, he said 6-10 weeks.  Maybe Les you're right and it will be 2021.

Hopefully, the worst will be over by fall this year.
As to the estimated difference between 5 and 10 weeks, if the actual difference turns out as just one one month and the doubling period remains at 8 days, that extra time could inflict 10 times more casualties.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 26, 2020, 02:19:31 pm
Hopefully, the worst will be over by fall this year.
As to the estimated difference between 5 and 10 weeks, if the actual difference turns out as just one one month and the doubling period remains at 8 days, that extra time could inflict 10 times more casualties.
You're assuming the rate keeps doubling at the same rate.  In NY, Gov Cuomo announced the two day doubling had change to something like 2-3 days than changed again to every 4-5 days.  It could reach a point where there are more deaths added to the total but the rate stays the same day to day.  Let's think positive.  It's just as easy to do that as to think negative.  Maybe we've been watching too many walking dead and end of world movies recently.   
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on March 26, 2020, 02:34:56 pm
Let's think positive.  It's just as easy to do that as to think negative. 

Easy, yes.
But the consequences of being wrong in either case vastly different.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on March 26, 2020, 02:39:13 pm
You're assuming the rate keeps doubling at the same rate.  In NY, Gov Cuomo announced the two day doubling had change to something like 2-3 days than changed again to every 4-5 days.  It could reach a point where there are more deaths added to the total but the rate stays the same day to day.  Let's think positive.  It's just as easy to do that as to think negative.  Maybe we've been watching too many walking dead and end of world movies recently.

Alan, I was being positive, actually quite optimistic.
Instead of the current doubling every 3 or every 5 days, I assumed a more conservative estimate of 8-10 days.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on March 26, 2020, 02:41:14 pm
Thanks, Chris, much appreciated. Based on that, it seems I can get out. But I won't. Not yet.
I've been reading a lot of clinical papers for the email newsletter I'm sending out each day to fellow pharma industry retirees.  It seems to be quite variable.  Some patients saw the virus disappear within a day or two other a little longer.  The CDC guidance is good but make sure you carry some disposable Kleenex with you and if you have to cough or sneeze use the tissue under the assumption you don't want to transmit anything (you probably wouldn't but always good to be safe) and of course keep up the hand washing and sanitizing routine.  Right now I have not seen any papers about reinfection of those who no longer had virus in their system.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on March 26, 2020, 02:43:57 pm
There were comments on the presence of SARS-CoV-2 on environmental surfaces based on the New England Journal of Medicine article.  I tried to allay folks concerns but this article in Jeff Bezos's Washington Post does it better:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/26/dont-panic-about-shopping-getting-delivery-or-accepting-packages/    In short, don't panic, go about your business and wash your hands.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Slobodan Blagojevic on March 26, 2020, 02:48:03 pm
Thanks, Alan G.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 26, 2020, 03:44:47 pm
Easy, yes.
But the consequences of being wrong in either case vastly different.

Well this thing goes on another year, than the economies will be destroyed and we'll all be starving to death.  Pick your poison.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 26, 2020, 03:46:19 pm
Alan, I was being positive, actually quite optimistic.
Instead of the current doubling every 3 or every 5 days, I assumed a more conservative estimate of 8-10 days.
You're assuming this will go on to the fall.  I don't think that's going to happen.  If it does, than read my last post.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 26, 2020, 03:52:21 pm
I've been reading a lot of clinical papers for the email newsletter I'm sending out each day to fellow pharma industry retirees.  It seems to be quite variable.  Some patients saw the virus disappear within a day or two other a little longer.  The CDC guidance is good but make sure you carry some disposable Kleenex with you and if you have to cough or sneeze use the tissue under the assumption you don't want to transmit anything (you probably wouldn't but always good to be safe) and of course keep up the hand washing and sanitizing routine.  Right now I have not seen any papers about reinfection of those who no longer had virus in their system.
You could cough into your hand like Biden did.  2:50 on he video   Check out Tappers reaction.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1242535855362899976
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on March 26, 2020, 04:06:01 pm
There were comments on the presence of SARS-CoV-2 on environmental surfaces based on the New England Journal of Medicine article.  I tried to allay folks concerns but this article in Jeff Bezos's Washington Post does it better:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/26/dont-panic-about-shopping-getting-delivery-or-accepting-packages/    In short, don't panic, go about your business and wash your hands.

Bezos wants money for that article.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 26, 2020, 04:26:58 pm
Are things getting testy at home?

Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on March 26, 2020, 07:47:44 pm
You're assuming this will go on to the fall.  I don't think that's going to happen.  If it does, than read my last post.

Firstly, this thing won't stop suddenly, there will be a gradual slowdown, and maybe even a second wave before the situation returns to normal.
Secondly, if the virus gets worse and many workers stay at home either because they will be sick or laid off, there is not much point in forcing them to go back to work.

BTW, on March 20, we had 271,598 total infections and 11,299 deaths. That day, in one of my posts, I made a prediction of 600,000 total infections and 25,000 deaths for end of March. Looking at today's numbers, they doubled in 7 days to 529,605 infections and 24,000 deaths, so we'll reach the predicted numbers tomorrow, 4 days early. Now, it looks like by end of March we might be at 750,000 infections and 40,000 dead.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on March 27, 2020, 06:21:19 am
A question: say you were in self-isolation for 14 days. It that period, the symptoms were gradually disappearing, and on day 15-16, you can say you are symptom-free. How long after that you could still be contagious? An extra week? Two? What does science say?

You could still shed virus for 2 to 3 weeks, but perhaps at that stage the virus is less infectious.  A lot of uncertaity still remains.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on March 27, 2020, 06:31:06 am
Well this thing goes on another year, than the economies will be destroyed and we'll all be starving to death.  Pick your poison.

Scientists are already preparing for a second wave, in the Autumn, where a vaccine will not be available yet. Of course, the current lockdown will reduce the number of people getting infected now, but will increase the number of people getting infected in the future, most likely. There is no win-win situation.

The second wave of the 1918 flu, which hit Portugal in the Autumn of 1919, killed a lot more people. Also worldwide I think.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on March 27, 2020, 06:57:18 am
You could still shed virus for 2 to 3 weeks, but perhaps at that stage the virus is less infectious.  A lot of uncertaity still remains.

I'd suggest that before throwing around loose comments and advice as facts, one should provide a link to the source - preferably an authoratative one.  Prefacing replies with 'perhaps' only helps to spread FUD.

Current guidelines are, AFAIK, 7 days contagion / 14 days to exhibit signs of infection (incubation period).

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/disposition-in-home-patients.html

Quote
Persons with COVID-19 who have symptoms and were directed to care for themselves at home may discontinue home isolation under the  following conditions:

1/ At least 3 days (72 hours) have passed since recovery defined as resolution of fever without the use of fever-reducing medications and improvement in respiratory symptoms (e.g., cough, shortness of breath); and,
2/ At least 7 days have passed since symptoms first appeared.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on March 27, 2020, 07:00:11 am
It mau be the Daily Mail but the video is from George Washington University.
360degree VR and 3D images of COVID-19 infected lungs.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8155797/Virtual-reality-video-reveals-coronavirus-damages-lungs.html

Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on March 27, 2020, 09:00:54 am
Johns Hopkins University - summary to avoid contagion.

Quote
*1* The virus is not a living organism, but a protein molecule (DNA) covered by a protective layer of lipid (fat), which, when absorbed by the cells of the ocular, nasal or buccal mucosa, changes their genetic code. (mutation) and convert them into aggressor and multiplier cells.
*2* Since the virus is not a living organism but a protein molecule, it is not killed, but decays on its own. The disintegration time depends on the temperature, humidity and type of material where it lies.
*3* The virus is very fragile; the only thing that protects it is a thin outer layer of fat. That is why any soap or detergent is the best remedy, because the foam CUTS the FAT (that is why you have to rub so much: for 20 seconds or more, to make a lot of foam). By dissolving the fat layer, the protein molecule disperses and breaks down on its own.
*4* HEAT melts fat; this is why it is so good to use water above 25 degrees Celsius for washing hands, clothes and everything. In addition, hot water makes more foam and that makes it even more useful.
*5* Alcohol or any mixture with alcohol over 65% DISSOLVES ANY FAT, especially the external lipid layer of the virus.
*6* Any mix with 1 part bleach and 5 parts water directly dissolves the protein, breaks it down from the inside.
*7* Oxygenated water helps long after soap, alcohol and chlorine, because peroxide dissolves the virus protein, but you have to use it pure and it hurts your skin.
*8* NO BACTERIACIDE SERVES. The virus is not a living organism like bacteria; they cannot kill what is not alive with anthobiotics, but quickly disintegrate its structure with everything said.
*9* NEVER shake used or unused clothing, sheets or cloth. While it is glued to a porous surface, it is very inert and disintegrates only between 3 hours (fabric and porous), 4 hours (copper, because it is naturally antiseptic; and wood, be
cause it removes all the moisture and does not let it peel off and disintegrates). ), 24 hours (cardboard), 42 hours (metal) and 72 hours (plastic). But if you shake it or use a feather duster, the virus molecules float in the air for up to 3 hours, and can lodge in your nose.
*10* The virus molecules remain very stable in external cold, or artificial as air conditioners in houses and cars. They also need moisture to stay stable, and especially darkness. Therefore, dehumidified, dry, warm and bright environments will degrade it faster.
*11* UV LIGHT on any object that may contain it breaks down the virus protein. For example, to disinfect and reuse a mask is perfect. Be careful, it also breaks down collagen (which is protein) in the skin, eventually causing wrinkles and skin cancer.
*12* The virus CANNOT go through healthy skin.
*13* Vinegar is NOT useful because it does not break down the protective layer of fat.
*14* NO SPIRITS, NOR VODKA, serve. The strongest vodka is 40% alcohol, and you need 65%.
*15* LISTERINE IF IT SERVES! It is 65% alcohol.
*16* The more confined the space, the more concentration of the virus there can be. The more open or naturally ventilated, the less.
*17* This is super said, but you have to wash your hands before and after touching mucosa, food, locks, knobs, switches, remote control, cell phone, watches, computers, desks, TV, etc. And when using the bathroom.
*18* You have to HUMIDIFY HANDS DRY from so much washing them, because the molecules can hide in the micro cracks. The thicker the moisturizer, the better.
*19* Also keep your NAILS SHORT so that the virus does not hide there.

Johns Hopkins Archive
https://hub.jhu.edu/tags/coronavirus/articles/
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 27, 2020, 10:02:29 am
Scientists are already preparing for a second wave, in the Autumn, where a vaccine will not be available yet. Of course, the current lockdown will reduce the number of people getting infected now, but will increase the number of people getting infected in the future, most likely. There is no win-win situation.

The second wave of the 1918 flu, which hit Portugal in the Autumn of 1919, killed a lot more people. Also worldwide I think.

What a cheery comment.  :)
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Bart_van_der_Wolf on March 27, 2020, 10:02:50 am
Johns Hopkins University - summary to avoid contagion.

Johns Hopkins Archive
https://hub.jhu.edu/tags/coronavirus/articles/

Excellent summary!
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on March 27, 2020, 10:16:29 am
An experimental vaccine is starting trials in the UK shortly.  It's based on the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and uses a proven scalable technology.  500 people will be enrolled.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 27, 2020, 10:26:03 am
An experimental vaccine is starting trials in the UK shortly.  It's based on the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and uses a proven scalable technology.  500 people will be enrolled.
Do they think this virus will come back next year, come back in a different strain like the Asian flu does every year, or is this a one-off?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on March 27, 2020, 10:28:53 am
I'd suggest that before throwing around loose comments and advice as facts, one should provide a link to the source - preferably an authoratative one.  Prefacing replies with 'perhaps' only helps to spread FUD.

Current guidelines are, AFAIK, 7 days contagion / 14 days to exhibit signs of infection (incubation period).

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/disposition-in-home-patients.html

I apologize for not remembering the source, but I am sure I read it as a quote froma scientific paper that was mentioned during the daily press conference we have in Portgual from our health authorities.

What you mention above is nothing new and does not contradict my statement. Also, no need to insult.

What has been found out is that after recovering from the disease and leaving the hospital, patients were found to still being able to infect others because they still had the virus in their system. Doctors mention "shedding" the virus. This could be the reason why some patients still test positive after recovering and being declared cured. They still carry the virus in their system, and could be doing so for 2 - 3 weeks.

Found it after all:

"After a person recovers from the virus, how long are they still contagious?
That's a very important question. We're not sure; one individual in China was shown to have persistent virus shedding for over a month. But typically, we're looking at a three-week period from onset of symptoms."

https://www.caltech.edu/about/news/tip-iceberg-virologist-david-ho-bs-74-speaks-about-covid-19?fbclid=IwAR0MA1o_JLnGCK6c0Z1SJtikFUF1o0W-17N-ZNFOkXlqIz52K5fItzVbf-I
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 27, 2020, 10:30:08 am
UK’s Boris Johnson tested positive.   It seems like a lot of famous people have the virus.  Maybe mild cases.  Could that mean it's really more distributed and we just don't know because only the rich and famous are getting tested without symptoms?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on March 27, 2020, 10:41:39 am
UK’s Boris Johnson tested positive.   It seems like a lot of famous people have the virus.  Maybe mild cases.  Could that mean it's really more distributed and we just don't know because only the rich and famous are getting tested without symptoms?

In Portugal, today we have more ~700 cases. This means that the growth rate is keeping at 20% per day, down from 40% before the quarantine. This is not bad news...
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 27, 2020, 10:56:04 am
In Portugal, today we have more ~700 cases. This means that the growth rate is keeping at 20% per day, down from 40% before the quarantine. This is not bad news...
That is good news.  Let's pray that follows around the world.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Bart_van_der_Wolf on March 27, 2020, 11:04:26 am
Do they think this virus will come back next year, come back in a different strain like the Asian flu does every year, or is this a one-off?

It's staying and it keeps changing a little with each transfer. So we need to build immunity (antibodies) and/or introduce them with a vaccine to help the immune system prepare. Once the leap from animal to human carriers is made, traveling humans are a successful vehicle for spreading.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Bart_van_der_Wolf on March 27, 2020, 11:07:27 am
In Portugal, today we have more ~700 cases. This means that the growth rate is keeping at 20% per day, down from 40% before the quarantine. This is not bad news...

Sounds like the R0 is also approaching 1.0 like it seems to be in the Netherlands. There might still be a flare-up due to last weekend where a lot of irresponsible folks were organizing parties in defiance of the instructions, which caused the government to tighten up the restrictions and impose €400 fines for private offenders, and € 4000 for companies. Now to get the R0 below 1.0 will be a tricky balancing act.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Rajan Parrikar on March 27, 2020, 11:33:07 am
Iceland's response. (https://www.nbcnews.com/now/video/how-iceland-tested-the-most-people-for-covid-19-per-capita-in-the-world-81211973892)
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Slobodan Blagojevic on March 27, 2020, 11:42:34 am
https://www.statista.com/chart/21176/covid-19-infection-density-in-countries-most-total-cases/?fbclid=IwAR2GzWzOPufIqiMaASqbg_U8ENocxodei03ZIrJPbHUes08LnTdygWDwROw

COVID-19 Cases per Million Inhabitants: A Comparison

Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: KLaban on March 27, 2020, 11:54:13 am
https://www.statista.com/chart/21176/covid-19-infection-density-in-countries-most-total-cases/?fbclid=IwAR2GzWzOPufIqiMaASqbg_U8ENocxodei03ZIrJPbHUes08LnTdygWDwROw

COVID-19 Cases per Million Inhabitants: A Comparison

Interesting, but this is of course confirmed cases and is dependent on individual nations testing levels.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: faberryman on March 27, 2020, 11:54:53 am
You have to have been tested to be a confirmed case. If you don't test, you can have a really low cases per thousand score.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Bart_van_der_Wolf on March 27, 2020, 11:55:52 am
https://www.statista.com/chart/21176/covid-19-infection-density-in-countries-most-total-cases/?fbclid=IwAR2GzWzOPufIqiMaASqbg_U8ENocxodei03ZIrJPbHUes08LnTdygWDwROw

COVID-19 Cases per Million Inhabitants: A Comparison

The key word in the chart is "Confirmed" cases. Most people (including myself) have not yet been confirmed because tests are only used for those needing hospitalization, and healthcare workers. Also, most people will develop a mild case of infection (although they may be very contageouus for less fortunate others).
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on March 27, 2020, 12:17:16 pm
Also, no need to insult.

Paolo,

I had no intention of insulting, just pointed out that in this very difficult period there are many trains of thought and it's best to stick as best we can to 'facts'.  Slobodan is naturalised American, and with all respect to Portugal, I pointed him to the advice of the CDC.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on March 27, 2020, 12:57:33 pm
Sounds like the R0 is also approaching 1.0 like it seems to be in the Netherlands. There might still be a flare-up due to last weekend where a lot of irresponsible folks were organizing parties in defiance of the instructions, which caused the government to tighten up the restrictions and impose €400 fines for private offenders, and € 4000 for companies. Now to get the R0 below 1.0 will be a tricky balancing act.

Indeed. Last weekend in Portugal there were some gatherings of people that confused "hygienic walks around the block" with going out and clogging promenades. I live 5min away from a nice beach, it's sunny outisde, but...

I saw a news piece the other day was how the big crisis in Bergamo was traced to a football match played in Milan between Atalanta (team from Bergamo) and Valencia - there were big celebrations in Bergamo due to the victory. Same thing is possible when, in plain crisis already, UEFA decided not to cancel Liverpool - Atletic Madrid, with 60,000 people in the stadium. Criminal decision, IMO.

Even today I read an article about the crisis in Spain, and how on March 8 the prime minister and the government participated in public events that gathered large crowds. March 8 there were 1,000 cases in Spain.

Similar thing happened in France, where early this month they were entertained with local elections and large public gatherings.

The danger of epidemics curve is that during the first couple of weeks, even though the number of cases may double every 2 or 3 days, the numbers are still low, so people still think itis not serious and do not take the necessary measures ON TIME.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on March 27, 2020, 02:17:17 pm
The key word in the chart is "Confirmed" cases. Most people (including myself) have not yet been confirmed because tests are only used for those needing hospitalization, and healthcare workers. Also, most people will develop a mild case of infection (although they may be very contageouus for less fortunate others).
Once a validated serological (blood) test comes out, the level of infection in the general population can be established.  A US company has developed a finger prick test but it has not received approval in the US yet.  I believe it is being exported right now for use in countries that might not have other testing capacity.  Several gene tests that run on auto analyzers have received US approval.  Abbott Laboratories say they will be ramping up to 1 million test kits per week for their analyzer. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Slobodan Blagojevic on March 27, 2020, 02:28:06 pm
The key word in the chart is "Confirmed" cases....

Yes, of course. But the value of the chart is different: it has just been announced that the US is now leading the world in the absolute number of "confirmed" cases. Therefore, the chart puts the comparison of confirmed cased on an equal footing (i.e., the same statistical base).
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 27, 2020, 02:34:59 pm
Yes, of course. But the value of the chart is different: it has just been announced that the US is now leading the world in the absolute number of "confirmed" cases. Therefore, the chart puts the comparison of confirmed cased on an equal footing (i.e., the same statistical base).
1. What does this mean? 
2. Wouldn't a sampling of the general population have to be random to have much validity?  Testing people who look like they need a test or who come in to have a test because they think they're infected will skew the results and give false data. 
3.Do we have enough test kits to do random sampling at this time rather than using them in a more targeted way?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: John Camp on March 27, 2020, 03:37:10 pm
1. What does this mean? 
2. Wouldn't a sampling of the general population have to be random to have much validity?  Testing people who look like they need a test or who come in to have a test because they think they're infected will skew the results and give false data. 
3.Do we have enough test kits to do random sampling at this time rather than using them in a more targeted way?

We have plenty of test kits to do this, and probably the testing tech, but people are worried about other things, I guess. You can get within 3% plus or minus valid numbers, with 95% confidence, testing any large number of people with only 1000 random samples. This could be done by contracting (fairly cheaply) with a polling company doing what's called random digit dialing, which would take a sample of 1000 people and asking if they would go to a designated test center to get swabbed. You might even pay them to do this -- paying them $100 would only cost $100,000, a drop in the bucket compared to the amounts of money we're throwing around. Or, you could pay them $1,000, still a drop in the bucket. Once you had the tests, you'd know within a range of 3%, plus or minus, with 95% confidence, what the infection rate is in any large population -- the US, New York, Wyoming, whatever large population you'd want to designate.

Nobody is doing this, as far as I know.

Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 27, 2020, 03:57:00 pm
We have plenty of test kits to do this, and probably the testing tech, but people are worried about other things, I guess. You can get within 3% plus or minus valid numbers, with 95% confidence, testing any large number of people with only 1000 random samples. This could be done by contracting (fairly cheaply) with a polling company doing what's called random digit dialing, which would take a sample of 1000 people and asking if they would go to a designated test center to get swabbed. You might even pay them to do this -- paying them $100 would only cost $100,000, a drop in the bucket compared to the amounts of money we're throwing around. Or, you could pay them $1,000, still a drop in the bucket. Once you had the tests, you'd know within a range of 3%, plus or minus, with 95% confidence, what the infection rate is in any large population -- the US, New York, Wyoming, whatever large population you'd want to designate.

Nobody is doing this, as far as I know.



Here's an article posted today explaining how they're gearing up to do wider testing.

"Scientists are starting to roll out new blood tests for the coronavirus, a key development that, unlike the current diagnostic tests, will help pinpoint people who are immune and reveal the full scope of the pandemic."
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/27/serological-tests-reveal-immune-coronavirus/
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on March 27, 2020, 05:27:09 pm
Here's an article posted today explaining how they're gearing up to do wider testing.

"Scientists are starting to roll out new blood tests for the coronavirus, a key development that, unlike the current diagnostic tests, will help pinpoint people who are immune and reveal the full scope of the pandemic."
https://www.statnews.com/2020/03/27/serological-tests-reveal-immune-coronavirus/
I am tracking this.  There is no approved blood test for the US right now.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 27, 2020, 05:44:00 pm
I am tracking this.  There is no approved blood test for the US right now.
What about tests of the general public that tests if they have or had the disease?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: BobShaw on March 27, 2020, 06:17:04 pm
Talking about the number of cases is only valuable if you look at where you are on the cycle. Italy for example the number of new cases is doubling every 6 days. In the US the number of new cases is doubling every three days. The US is now regarded as the Epicentre of the virus and for many there is no health care. https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus

Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Chris Kern on March 27, 2020, 09:33:27 pm
The US is now regarded as the Epicentre of the virus and for many there is no health care.

It's true that there are still many uninsured individuals in the United Sates.  However a federal statute, the Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act (1986), requires every hospital with an emergency department that participates in Medicare, the government insurance program for old people―effectively, this means almost every hospital in the country―to screen and provide stabilizing medical treatment for any individual who requests an emergency medical examination or treatment, regardless of the individual's ability to pay.  If the hospital doesn't have the ability to stabilize the patient, it must arrange for a transfer to a hospital that does.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on March 27, 2020, 11:09:12 pm
It's true that there are still many uninsured individuals in the United Sates.  However a federal statute, the Emergency Medical Treatment and Labor Act (1986), requires every hospital with an emergency department that participates in Medicare, the government insurance program for old people―effectively, this means almost every hospital in the country―to screen and provide stabilizing medical treatment for any individual who requests an emergency medical examination or treatment, regardless of the individual's ability to pay.  If the hospital doesn't have the ability to stabilize the patient, it must arrange for a transfer to a hospital that does.

Yes, if they are sick they will get admitted and treated. In ICU the vast majority of times I have no idea what insurance the patients have and I don't care.
Where it will make a difference is in the post hospital care. Most people that are that sick in the ICU don't go directly home, and the care after is quite important, particularly if they have a lot to recover.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on March 28, 2020, 04:55:26 am
Imperial College study:

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Global-Impact-26-03-2020.pdf

"We estimate that in the absence of interventions, COVID-19 would have resulted in 7.0 billion
infections and 40 million deaths globally this year. Mitigation strategiesfocussing on shielding
the elderly (60% reduction in social contacts) and slowing but not interrupting transmission
(40% reduction in social contacts for wider population) could reduce this burden by half,
saving 20 million lives, but we predict that even in this scenario, health systems in all countries
will be quickly overwhelmed."

Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on March 28, 2020, 07:37:17 am
Googling this morning, I saw quite a few stories about C19 anti-body pin prick tests. An example, https://www.precisionvaccinations.com/sd-biosensor-standard-q-covid-19-igmigg-rapid-test-administered-point-care (https://www.precisionvaccinations.com/sd-biosensor-standard-q-covid-19-igmigg-rapid-test-administered-point-care).

The articles I happen to come across seem to be press release type statements. Does anyone know the false positive and especially the false negative rates of these tests? I realize it is too early to have field data but some data should have come out of approval testing.

What is the minimum level of reliability that we require?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Bart_van_der_Wolf on March 28, 2020, 08:38:34 am
Googling this morning, I saw quite a few stories about C19 anti-body pin prick tests. An example, https://www.precisionvaccinations.com/sd-biosensor-standard-q-covid-19-igmigg-rapid-test-administered-point-care (https://www.precisionvaccinations.com/sd-biosensor-standard-q-covid-19-igmigg-rapid-test-administered-point-care).

The articles I happen to come across seem to be press release type statements. Does anyone know the false positive and especially the false negative rates of these tests? I realize it is too early to have field data but some data should have come out of approval testing.

What is the minimum level of reliability that we require?

On its own, such a test has limited value. At best it can tell if someone is, or has been, infected with Covid-19. Additional tests are required to increase its usefulness, and it's the lack of molecular tests that creates a problem. Also, without being used in a good methodical data-gathering effort, there is limited usefulness for the larger population (e.g. in determining when it becomes acceptable to risk going back to work).

First test results do suggest that people may be immune to reinfection, but it's still too earlier to be very sure. Currently there are also tests being done to establish the differences in (re-)contamination risk between people with only mild or more servere sympthoms. That includes specific effects from children compared to adults.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on March 28, 2020, 09:23:04 am
just read some reports from Slovakia how they handled Covid-19 situation.
Slovakia is a rather small country with 5.5 million people, 300 infections, but no deaths so far.
They instituted early a number of measures to prevent and monitor the infections, some low-tech and some using the latest technology for tracking the affected people.

Quote
The newly-appointed crisis staff and Igor Matovič's cabinet came up with a set of measures to add to the already existing ones that have been valid in Slovakia since March 13.
"The epidemiologic situation is still better than in some western-European states," said the head of the hygienic authority, Jan Mikas.
The government is about to purchase 200,000 PCR tests.

Wearing a protective face mask will be obligatory outside one's home, including in the streets. When queueing, people are required to stand at least 2 metres from each other, both indoor and outdoor. As of March 30, measuring temperature will be obligatory at the entrance to shops, hospitals, factories,... (using a digital contactless thermometer measuring temperature on the forehead)

All shops will be closed on Sundays, for disinfection and to allow the staff to rest. The ban on organizing mass events that expired on March 24 has been prolonged until further notice.

Using data from mobile phones:
-The government will pass a law on a short-tracked procedure to allow state authorities to use localisation data from mobile phone operators. GDPR permits the use of this data during crisis times, but "we need a law for the telecom operators to be sure we are able to use this data". The government will talk to the telecom operators about the possibility of sending targeted messages to people, e.g. pensioners older than 65 years, to remind them about the appeals and measures that apply to them.

https://spectator.sme.sk/c/22366501/masks-will-be-obligatory-new-measures-mainly-aimed-at-the-elderly.html?ref=njctse
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on March 28, 2020, 09:52:06 am
On its own, such a test has limited value. At best it can tell if someone is, or has been, infected with Covid-19. Additional tests are required to increase its usefulness, and it's the lack of molecular tests that creates a problem. Also, without being used in a good methodical data-gathering effort, there is limited usefulness for the larger population (e.g. in determining when it becomes acceptable to risk going back to work).

First test results do suggest that people may be immune to reinfection, but it's still too earlier to be very sure. Currently there are also tests being done to establish the differences in (re-)contamination risk between people with only mild or more servere sympthoms. That includes specific effects from children compared to adults.
The blood tests rely on the presence of antibodies which do not present immediately upon infection.  The gene tests from nasal and throat swabs are still the gold standard there.  There has been a lot of progress automating those tests and several companies that manufacture gene auto-analyzers have tests now.  Abbott Labs in the US hopes to be sending out 1 million tests kits a week that run on their machines and there are others who are also ramping up production.  These machines are mainly in hospital settings where point of care diagnoses is most important.

I've seen a couple of pin prick blood tests now but don't know what the ramp up for production is.  These kinds of tests can be administered in a doctor's office and conceivably at home much the same way diabetics test their blood sugar levels with a pin prick (though that has largely been superseded by some new technologies).  Blood tests can be more widely deployed than the gene tests and will be useful in getting good background numbers on the total number infected.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on March 28, 2020, 10:31:25 am
I've seen a couple of pin prick blood tests now but don't know what the ramp up for production is.  These kinds of tests can be administered in a doctor's office and conceivably at home much the same way diabetics test their blood sugar levels with a pin prick (though that has largely been superseded by some new technologies).  Blood tests can be more widely deployed than the gene tests and will be useful in getting good background numbers on the total number infected.

Understood. There is an obvious statistical value, but it might also be of some relief to many people to find out that they did have it and seemed to be able to fight it off. I do understand the risk of inducing false hope until we know more.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on March 28, 2020, 01:46:54 pm
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-27/abbott-launches-5-minute-covid-19-test-for-use-almost-anywhere?fbclid=IwAR0-IvkWdl13BT6dVaGsERWXPRIMmVjYkGCFcRwlt6-Sj7FfwC9EGR_ww_w

The April 1st start date gives me a little pause.
Plus in our system (and I don't think it's the only one) they don't want outpatient offices to test but to send for testing to one of the main hospital locations.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: degrub on March 28, 2020, 05:13:04 pm
from the FDA
https://www.fda.gov/media/136522/download
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 28, 2020, 05:20:21 pm
from the FDA
https://www.fda.gov/media/136522/download

It would be helpful to summarize the link and your reason for posting it. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on March 28, 2020, 05:23:45 pm
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-27/abbott-launches-5-minute-covid-19-test-for-use-almost-anywhere?fbclid=IwAR0-IvkWdl13BT6dVaGsERWXPRIMmVjYkGCFcRwlt6-Sj7FfwC9EGR_ww_w

The April 1st start date gives me a little pause.
Plus in our system (and I don't think it's the only one) they don't want outpatient offices to test but to send for testing to one of the main hospital locations.
There are 18K machines throughout the US.  Abbott plans to get 40K tests out each day.  Do the math and you get 2.5 tests per machine and you need to get those to the site where the machines are.  there will be a huge logistics issue here.

EDIT:  The issue of PPE (personal protection equipment will be an issue for MD and urgent care offices).
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 28, 2020, 05:31:12 pm
There are 18K machines throughout the US.  Abbott plans to get 40K tests out each day.  Do the math and you get 2.5 tests per machine and you need to get those to the site where the machines are.  there will be a huge logistics issue here.
Why would you need 18K machines to test?  Send the tests to the most affected areas?  Then set up regional testing machines at let's say hospitals.  For example, NYC has 11 major hospitals under NYC government control.  So that could be testing centers.  44 machines or four per hospital.  Ditto for New Orleans, Chicago, and other hot spots.  Then leave let's say 40% of the tests for less affected places but for machine at a major hospital.  You got to think out of the box.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 28, 2020, 05:34:52 pm
...

EDIT:  The issue of PPE (personal protection equipment will be an issue for MD and urgent care offices).

Let's say you're the president. What do you suggest?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on March 28, 2020, 05:38:45 pm
Why would you need 18K machines to test?  Send the tests to the most affected areas?  Then set up regional testing machines at let's say hospitals.  For example, NYC has 11 major hospitals under NYC government control.  So that could be testing centers.  44 machines or four per hospital.  Ditto for New Orleans, Chicago, and other hot spots.  Then leave let's say 40% of the tests for less affected places but for machine at a major hospital.  You got to think out of the box.
Hospitals don't use this machine they use the big Abbott analyzer for which the company is cranking out many more tests a day.  I think they are shipping out over a million a week.  This machine is used primarily in MD and urgent care offices.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on March 28, 2020, 05:40:43 pm
Let's say you're the president. What do you suggest?
Make more PPE, everyone needs the stuff.  Also remember if someone who is positive comes to an MD or urgent care office and sneezes or coughs you need to the have the tools to decontaminate things.  Maybe they will dedicate a special room for taking the swab samples.  this is not as easy a problem to solve.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 28, 2020, 05:48:57 pm
Hospitals don't use this machine they use the big Abbott analyzer for which the company is cranking out many more tests a day.  I think they are shipping out over a million a week.  This machine is used primarily in MD and urgent care offices.
So what do you suggest?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 28, 2020, 05:49:45 pm
Make more PPE, everyone needs the stuff.  Also remember if someone who is positive comes to an MD or urgent care office and sneezes or coughs you need to the have the tools to decontaminate things.  Maybe they will dedicate a special room for taking the swab samples.  this is not as easy a problem to solve.
So what do you suggest?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 28, 2020, 05:50:47 pm
Remember, you're president.  No one wants to hear this is not an easy problem to solve.  Solve it.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on March 28, 2020, 05:51:24 pm
So what do you suggest?
Asked an answered at #170 above; more PPE for health care workers so they can treat and test without getting infected.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 28, 2020, 05:54:55 pm
Asked an answered at #170 above; more PPE for health care workers so they can treat and test without getting infected.
That's what the president is doing.  He's got automobile manufacturers to help out.  All of them are helping willingly except GM which wants to gouge us with high prices.  So he dropped the mandatory manufacturing law in their laps and told them to produce or face the consequences.  What more would you do?  Remember you're in charge.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on March 28, 2020, 06:01:50 pm
There are 18K machines throughout the US.  Abbott plans to get 40K tests out each day.  Do the math and you get 2.5 tests per machine and you need to get those to the site where the machines are.  there will be a huge logistics issue here.

EDIT:  The issue of PPE (personal protection equipment will be an issue for MD and urgent care offices).

Initially I didn't understand what you were saying but I think I get it now.

Most of the testing will be done in bigger centers because of the PPE requirements. I see a trend towards sending the tests to more centralized locations and have a fast turnover than to try to test it on-site.
I guess this option will be more valid for smaller remote locations where they have no other choice.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on March 28, 2020, 06:32:54 pm
That's what the president is doing.  He's got automobile manufacturers to help out.  All of them are helping willingly except GM which wants to gouge us with high prices.  So he dropped the mandatory manufacturing law in their laps and told them to produce or face the consequences.  What more would you do?  Remember you're in charge.

This thread was set up to distribute facts and useful information. Recently you manage to turn every topic into a "defend Trump at all costs" post even when he wasn't being attacked. Knock it off, it serves no purpose and risks derailing this thread. Nothing Alan G wrote above was political.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on March 28, 2020, 06:53:55 pm
Initially I didn't understand what you were saying but I think I get it now.

Most of the testing will be done in bigger centers because of the PPE requirements. I see a trend towards sending the tests to more centralized locations and have a fast turnover than to try to test it on-site.
I guess this option will be more valid for smaller remote locations where they have no other choice.
Yes, these are the small machines that only run some dedicated tests such as for strep throat and some other easy things.  The big guys such as LabCorp and Quest can do large volume testing but it has to be sent to regional centers and the turn around time is 2-3 days.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Slobodan Blagojevic on March 28, 2020, 07:18:34 pm
This thread was set up to distribute facts and useful information. Recently you manage to turn every topic into a "defend Trump at all costs" post even when he wasn't being attacked. Knock it off, it serves no purpose and risks derailing this thread. Nothing Alan G wrote above was political.

Seconded.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on March 28, 2020, 10:48:17 pm
A friend sent this report about UV radiation use in decontamination, https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200327-can-you-kill-coronavirus-with-uv-light (https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200327-can-you-kill-coronavirus-with-uv-light).

UV radiation is used in commercial applications but requires specialized equipment and training. The takeaway is that there doesn't seem to be any obvious way to use it in a consumer setting. You can't disinfect all your groceries at the exit door by walking through a UV room, not safely. The info about UVC (as opposed to UVA and UVB) was new to me.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Slobodan Blagojevic on March 29, 2020, 10:56:29 am
(Cross-posting from another Corona thread)

Today's stats from Serbia, FWIW:

From top to bottom, left to right:

Total number, dead, recovered, active cases, tested. Serbia's population is about 7-8 million.

The second image is a makeshift hospital for milder cases in a fairground facility.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Chris Kern on March 29, 2020, 11:07:49 am
UV radiation is used in commercial applications but requires specialized equipment and training. The takeaway is that there doesn't seem to be any obvious way to use it in a consumer setting.

The only practical consumer use for it that I've seen is in cellphone "sanitizers."  These might be useful for people who need to use their phones it settings where they are in contact with people who are shedding COVID-19 or other viruses―for example, doctors or other medical workers.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on March 29, 2020, 11:38:38 am
The only practical consumer use for it that I've seen is in cellphone "sanitizers."  These might be useful for people who need to use their phones it settings where they are in contact with people who are shedding COVID-19 or other viruses―for example, doctors or other medical workers.

I got one because our phones are one the most contaminated objects to start with.



Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on March 29, 2020, 11:39:36 am
(Cross-posting from another Corona thread)

Today's stats from Serbia, FWIW:

From top to bottom, left to right:

Total number, dead, recovered, active cases, tested. Serbia's population is about 7-8 million.

The second image is a makeshift hospital for milder cases in a fairground facility.

I heard the Detroit auto show was canceled and they will use the facility for something similar.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on March 29, 2020, 12:55:05 pm
Interesting chart: http://covid19.healthdata.org/projections
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Slobodan Blagojevic on March 29, 2020, 01:04:00 pm
Italian stats:

The data set is from 6,000 deaths. Anecdotally, overweight men are the majority of patients and the data confirm it.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on March 29, 2020, 03:25:05 pm
Italian stats:

The data set is from 6,000 deaths. Anecdotally, overweight men are the majority of patients and the data confirm it.
There is a lot of interesting epidemiology data coming out and I'm sure we will continue to see interesting things.  I want to see if there is a positive correlation between blood type and infectivity.  Early information shows those with Type A are more prone to infection.  Also people on certain blood pressure meds may have resistance based on some AI analyses of possible drugs that interfere with viral binding.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on March 30, 2020, 04:51:51 am
Even though in some countries - like mine, Portugal - the recommendation from WHO - test, test, test - is not possibel (lack of supplies due to non-preparedness), the amount of data worldwide is enormous. Only in Portugal, in March, 40,000 tests were done.

The amount of data at the end of this crisis will no doubt be analysed by AI and Big Data algorithms, and hopefully lessons will be learned for the future. Recently researchers from Imperial College have made some analysis for 202 countries. For Portugal, without efficient quarantine methods, they estimate 70,000 infected and nearly 4,000 dead.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Bart_van_der_Wolf on March 30, 2020, 06:10:22 am
Interesting, although alarming, new insights are emerging.

In the current ICU capacity planning in my country, an average period of 10 days in ICU per patient was used for some capacity planning models. However, the actual minimum period that people with Covid-19 have to remain in ICU's turns out to be more like 21 days, effectively halving the available capacity.

Do note that the absolute number of ICU days per patient will differ by country, also because of differences in treatment leading up to ICU admission. Traditionally, the ICU period is relatively short in the Netherlands. Currently cohort departments are being opened where patients can receive treatment for lighter respiratory relief, to reduce the load on ICU's.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on March 30, 2020, 07:44:06 am
The amount of data at the end of this crisis will no doubt be analysed by AI and Big Data algorithms, and hopefully lessons will be learned for the future.
this has already started.  In 2005, my colleagues and I developed a business plan to establish an organization that would improve the way observational medical information could be used to examine pharmaceutical safety and efficacy.  I made a presentation of industry CEOs in 2008, requesting an initial $20 million to get the project up and running.  A lot of new methods were developed and the group turned into a world wide group of industry, government and academic researchers.  Their international meeting that was to have taken place last week was cancelled and they used the time to create a giant COVID-19 study-a-thon with virtual meetings of work groups taking place over a five day period.  More than 340 collaborators took part, 180 hours, 30 nations over six continents, in 17 different teams.
They wrapped up things last night and have a number of very good ideas that can be implemented moving forward.  If you have a technical interest, here are the links:  https://www.ohdsi.org/covid-19-updates/

Though I retired in 2010, this is my most important work accomplishment.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on March 30, 2020, 08:24:13 am
Interesting, although alarming, new insights are emerging.

In the current ICU capacity planning in my country, an average period of 10 days in ICU per patient was used for some capacity planning models. However, the actual minimum period that people with Covid-19 have to remain in ICU's turns out to be more like 21 days, effectively halving the available capacity.

Do note that the absolute number of ICU days per patient will differ by country, also because of differences in treatment leading up to ICU admission. Traditionally, the ICU period is relatively short in the Netherlands. Currently cohort departments are being opened where patients can receive treatment for lighter respiratory relief, to reduce the load on ICU's.

Statistics are good if you have the right numbers and the right intentions/algorithms. Some people will spin any data towards what they want to prove.

In regards to the length of stay in the ICU, it depends. The very sick patients will require a significant amount of time in the ICU although some initial anecdotal data that I've seen suggests the inflammation/infection per se doesn't last that long. You deal after with your comorbidities and if you are unlucky with the exaggerated response from your immune system. So overall the length of stay will depend on your patient population in the area, both comorbidities and life choices. Cultural differences play a role on how much they want to be on a ventilator, should they have the option.

Balancing this however is the clear trend to intubate early. This is usually 2 fold: many of those who require a lot of noninvasive support will decompensate anyway, and those noninvasive methods (high flow oxygen, CPAP/BiPAP) lead to significant aerosolizaton which turned out to be a big problem with Covid.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on March 30, 2020, 09:59:32 am
Interesting, although alarming, new insights are emerging.

In the current ICU capacity planning in my country, an average period of 10 days in ICU per patient was used for some capacity planning models. However, the actual minimum period that people with Covid-19 have to remain in ICU's turns out to be more like 21 days, effectively halving the available capacity.

Do note that the absolute number of ICU days per patient will differ by country, also because of differences in treatment leading up to ICU admission. Traditionally, the ICU period is relatively short in the Netherlands. Currently cohort departments are being opened where patients can receive treatment for lighter respiratory relief, to reduce the load on ICU's.

Unfortumately, no country is prepared for this... in Portugal, we try to follow the rule of 80-15-5, that is, 80% patients are treated at home (mild cases), 15% in hospitals, and 5% in ICUs. Thus far, today we have 127 deaths, mostly above 70 years old. Bad news: 50% of people that go into ICU die. Germany seems to be a good case of having enough hospital and ICU resources.

In Portugal, also people who have recovered (43 so far) on average spend 3 weeks in recovery. So yes, 10 days seems awfully optimistic.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on March 30, 2020, 10:03:40 am
this has already started.  In 2005, my colleagues and I developed a business plan to establish an organization that would improve the way observational medical information could be used to examine pharmaceutical safety and efficacy.  I made a presentation of industry CEOs in 2008, requesting an initial $20 million to get the project up and running.  A lot of new methods were developed and the group turned into a world wide group of industry, government and academic researchers.  Their international meeting that was to have taken place last week was cancelled and they used the time to create a giant COVID-19 study-a-thon with virtual meetings of work groups taking place over a five day period.  More than 340 collaborators took part, 180 hours, 30 nations over six continents, in 17 different teams.
They wrapped up things last night and have a number of very good ideas that can be implemented moving forward.  If you have a technical interest, here are the links:  https://www.ohdsi.org/covid-19-updates/

Though I retired in 2010, this is my most important work accomplishment.

Alan, this is much appreciated. I will certainly spend some time going through it, even though I am a geologist:)

And congratulations for participating in such initiatives.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Bart_van_der_Wolf on March 30, 2020, 10:44:15 am
A good Q&A with Dr. Fauci:

Dr. Fauci Answers Trevor’s Questions About Coronavirus
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8A3jiM2FNR8

Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on March 30, 2020, 10:45:40 am
Race to find COVID-19 treatments accelerates
Full article: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6485/1412.full

(https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/367/6485/1412/F1.large.jpg)
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 30, 2020, 11:10:18 am
Interesting, although alarming, new insights are emerging.

In the current ICU capacity planning in my country, an average period of 10 days in ICU per patient was used for some capacity planning models. However, the actual minimum period that people with Covid-19 have to remain in ICU's turns out to be more like 21 days, effectively halving the available capacity.

Do note that the absolute number of ICU days per patient will differ by country, also because of differences in treatment leading up to ICU admission. Traditionally, the ICU period is relatively short in the Netherlands. Currently cohort departments are being opened where patients can receive treatment for lighter respiratory relief, to reduce the load on ICU's.
In New York Columbia Presbyterian Hosp where I had my heart surgery last year, they have converted two floors used for heart surgery to ICU's for the virus.  I wonder how many heart and other surgeries are being put off because of Covid-19?  How do you count heart disease and other non-virus deaths that might be occurring that would not have  if the surgeries and other medical procedures were done on a timely basis? 

I understand this disease has priority so please don't attack me.  I'm just trying to make a point that there are other medical problems and deaths that aren't being addressed because of the pandemic.  Those figures will have to be included in the count when this whole thing is over. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 30, 2020, 11:16:15 am
Make more PPE, everyone needs the stuff.  Also remember if someone who is positive comes to an MD or urgent care office and sneezes or coughs you need to the have the tools to decontaminate things.  Maybe they will dedicate a special room for taking the swab samples.  this is not as easy a problem to solve.
I spoke to a friend who's in Florida for vacation and had to go to the doctor there. He waited outside in his car until the last patient left. Then went in. The receptionist was behind a glass barrier and a nurse was wearing a mask. The doctor barely touched him and wasn't wearing a mask.    The doctor was a urologist.  So I asked my friend if the doctor asked him to test himself?  My friend said that no the doctor was prepared. Apparently the procedure calls for the doctor to wear a glove in any case.  :)
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Bart_van_der_Wolf on March 30, 2020, 11:27:16 am
I understand this disease has priority so please don't attack me.  I'm just trying to make a point that there are other medical problems and deaths that aren't being addressed because of the pandemic.  Those figures will have to be included in the count when this whole thing is over.

Alan, I can only speak for what I'm told in the Dutch context. Urgent care is being given to other patients. Yesterday e.g. a heart transplant was performed in a Dutch Hospital, and other ICU care was administered to those who need it.

Planned operations may be postponed for a week or so until it becomes clearer that the ICU capacity will be available (the Covid-19 reproduction rate in the Netherlands seems to have dropped to 1.0 or less), but the Covid-19 patients take up beds that would otherwise have been empty, or they take up the additional beds that were, and still are being created specifically for them (we expect another peak in 1 week time). We also move patients around in the country to make space for the locally anticipated needs, and we even exchange space with our neighboring countries (especially Germany has a large spare ICU capacity).
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on March 30, 2020, 11:46:00 am
In New York Columbia Presbyterian Hosp where I had my heart surgery last year, they have converted two floors used for heart surgery to ICU's for the virus.  I wonder how many heart and other surgeries are being put off because of Covid-19?  How do you count heart disease and other non-virus deaths that might be occurring that would not have  if the surgeries and other medical procedures were done on a timely basis? 

I understand this disease has priority so please don't attack me.  I'm just trying to make a point that there are other medical problems and deaths that aren't being addressed because of the pandemic.  Those figures will have to be included in the count when this whole thing is over.

In Portugal, hospitals are set up with covid and nocovid areas. All non-urgent medical treatments are post-poned. In the last few days two trends have emerged:

- infections in home care houses for older people, many private, and that have done very little to be prepared... ending up with both staff and residents infected.

- 800+ medical staff infected.

Next up are prisons.

All of the above could have been prevented with proper and timely planning and preparation. It ispathetic to see the minister of Health saying that the numbers of how many residents exist in caring homes is "not clear".
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 30, 2020, 11:48:09 am
Alan, I can only speak for what I'm told in the Dutch context. Urgent care is being given to other patients. Yesterday e.g. a heart transplant was performed in a Dutch Hospital, and other ICU care was administered to those who need it.

Planned operations may be postponed for a week or so until it becomes clearer that the ICU capacity will be available (the Covid-19 reproduction rate in the Netherlands seems to have dropped to 1.0 or less), but the Covid-19 patients take up beds that would otherwise have been empty, or they take up the additional beds that were, and still are being created specifically for them (we expect another peak in 1 week time). We also move patients around in the country to make space for the locally anticipated needs, and we even exchange space with our neighboring countries (especially Germany has a large spare ICU capacity).
But elective surgery is down.  I spoke to my nephew who's a researcher and surgical anesthesiologist in Boston's Massachusetts General Hospital.  Operations are down two-thirds.  Research has stopped completely. He's home right now with his wife who's a radiologist there.  So a lot less regular medical things are happening.  Obviously things can;t stay at the same level with all the extra requirements caused by Covid-19.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: John Camp on March 30, 2020, 11:53:01 am
Interesting, although alarming, new insights are emerging.

In the current ICU capacity planning in my country, an average period of 10 days in ICU per patient was used for some capacity planning models. However, the actual minimum period that people with Covid-19 have to remain in ICU's turns out to be more like 21 days, effectively halving the available capacity. <snip>


I see New York has been working on a system to share one ventilator between two patients. How, I don't know.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 30, 2020, 11:54:01 am
In Portugal, hospitals are set up with covid and nocovid areas. All non-urgent medical treatments are post-poned. In the last few days two trends have emerged:

- infections in home care houses for older people, many private, and that have done very little to be prepared... ending up with both staff and residents infected.

- 800+ medical staff infected.

Next up are prisons.

All of the above could have been prevented with proper and timely planning and preparation. It ispathetic to see the minister of Health saying that the numbers of how many residents exist in caring homes is "not clear".

My 97 year old mother-in-law is in an assisted living residence close by.  They shut it down for all visitors including my wife, her mother.  Further up in New Jersey, a similar home had many deaths as the virus broke out there.  So old age facilities are taken strong measures to protect the residents.  They all have to eat in their rooms and not in the common dining room.  It must be very tough on many of these people as they're isolated from friends and family.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on March 30, 2020, 12:04:53 pm
I see New York has been working on a system to share one ventilator between two patients. How, I don't know.

Shorter stints, alternating between the two.
I've heard this in the EU, not just NYC. Hard to separate fact from fiction.

TV reports that Mercedes F1/ have designed a simpler design ventilator. Simpler both to manufacture and operate. Not verified and no further details AFAIK.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on March 30, 2020, 12:05:39 pm
But elective surgery is down.  I spoke to my nephew who's a researcher and surgical anesthesiologist in Boston's Massachusetts General Hospital.  Operations are down two-thirds.  Research has stopped completely. He's home right now with his wife who's a radiologist there.  So a lot less regular medical things are happening.  Obviously things can;t stay at the same level with all the extra requirements caused by Covid-19.

Here in Ontario, many doctors, dentists, and physiotherapists cancelled the appointments and won't schedule any new appointments until mid summer or fall. That's under the assumption, that the virus situation will soon improve.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Bart_van_der_Wolf on March 30, 2020, 12:12:46 pm
But elective surgery is down.  I spoke to my nephew who's a researcher and surgical anesthesiologist in Boston's Massachusetts General Hospital.  Operations are down two-thirds.[...]

That's most likely to create a buffer for the unknown number of patients.

We also experience some strange trends, like a reduction of Emergency admissions. Fewer people are going to the hospital. Maybe the Social Distancing also creates fewer accidents?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 30, 2020, 12:16:52 pm
That's most likely to create a buffer for the unknown number of patients.

We also experience some strange trends, like a reduction of Emergency admissions. Fewer people are going to the hospital. Maybe the Social Distancing also creates fewer accidents?
Also, who wants to go to a hospital where everyone is infected with the virus?  Hospitals are dangerous places under normal conditions. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on March 30, 2020, 01:39:13 pm
Race to find COVID-19 treatments accelerates
Full article: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6485/1412.full
I've been tracking all the clinical trials and drug development world wide.  For more on chloroquine/hydroxychloroquine see:  https://blogs.sciencemag.org/pipeline/archives/2020/03/29/more-on-cloroquine-azithromycin-and-on-dr-raoult    Immune serum for patients who have recovered is a nice approach but from what I have read, one person can yield only enough to treat two others.  This is why humanized monoclonal antibodies are desperately needed.  they can be produced at large scale.  Lopinavir/ritonovir have already come up negative in two Chinese trials though there are still some more ongoing.  I have not seen results from remdesivir.  There is a bunch of other stuff going on and Johnson & Johnson just announced their vaccine plans today.  They will begin trials in April and are building up capacity to produce a billion doses by sometime next year. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on March 30, 2020, 01:45:59 pm

TV reports that Mercedes F1/ have designed a simpler design ventilator. Simpler both to manufacture and operate. Not verified and no further details AFAIK.
The US had a contract several years ago for a streamlined model and through a variety of screw ups the project was halted.  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/business/coronavirus-us-ventilator-shortage.html
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on March 30, 2020, 02:56:32 pm
I see New York has been working on a system to share one ventilator between two patients. How, I don't know.

While it can be done in extreme cases, it should be reserved for the extreme cases only if you hope to get another vent available soon. It was done this way in Las Vegas after the shooting, but those were simpler cases from a lung pathology point of view. Otherwise it's a recipe for disaster.
The professional societies came up with a joint statement against it: https://www.asahq.org/about-asa/newsroom/news-releases/2020/03/joint-statement-on-multiple-patients-per-ventilator
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: John Camp on March 30, 2020, 03:57:03 pm
The US had a contract several years ago for a streamlined model and through a variety of screw ups the project was halted.  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/business/coronavirus-us-ventilator-shortage.html

Supposedly the UK's Dyson vacuum cleaner company designed a ventilator in ten days and plans to quickly manufacture 15,000 of them.  I have no further comment on that particular plan...8-)

https://futurism.com/the-byte/vaccuum-maker-dyson-designed-ventilator
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Slobodan Blagojevic on March 30, 2020, 04:43:17 pm
https://medium.com/@noahhaber/flatten-the-curve-of-armchair-epidemiology-9aa8cf92d652

Flatten the Curve of Armchair Epidemiology
Vet your sources or more people will be deluded


Quote
Everyone has seen messages telling you we must “act today or people will die,” COVID-19 is basically just the flu, and/or that “flattening the curve is a deadly delusion.” These often have numbers, charts, citations, retroactively edited titles (“taksies backsies”), and data “science.”
Unfortunately, all of the above are signs of DKE-19, a highly contagious illness threatening the response against COVID-19. We must act today to flatten the curve of armchair epidemiology, or we will all be in peril.
What is DKE-19?
Dunning-Kruger Effect (DKE) is a phenomenon where people lack the ability to understand their lack of ability.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on March 30, 2020, 05:52:49 pm
https://medium.com/@noahhaber/flatten-the-curve-of-armchair-epidemiology-9aa8cf92d652

Flatten the Curve of Armchair Epidemiology
Vet your sources or more people will be deluded


Why did you post this here, when the thread title says science and no politics.  This post and the referenced article should have been posted on the other COVID-19 thread.  You should respect the wishes of the OP.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Bart_van_der_Wolf on March 30, 2020, 05:56:46 pm
Why did you post this here, when the thread title says science and no politics.  This post and the referenced article should have been posted on the other COVID-19 thread.  You should respect the wishes of the OP.

+1
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: BobShaw on March 30, 2020, 06:23:06 pm
I spoke to a friend who's in Florida for vacation and had to go to the doctor there.
Wow, you mean people are actually going on holidays in the US?

Here in Australia there is no essential travel.
You are only allowed to go to work (if it is considered essential), the supermarket or a health professional.
Only two people are allowed on the street together.
You are not allowed out of the country or even to another state.
If you are Australian only you can re-enter the country but you are bussed to a hotel for 14 days and have to stay in the room.

There is no elective surgery. Some hospitals are now Covid only and some for other illnesses.
The curve is now going down and we have 4200 cases and 18 dead.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Slobodan Blagojevic on March 30, 2020, 06:34:39 pm
Why did you post this here, when the thread title says science and no politics.  This post and the referenced article should have been posted on the other COVID-19 thread.  You should respect the wishes of the OP.

It didn’t occur to me it has anything to do with politics, but rather with human (mis)understanding of the various scientific or media reports about the pandemic.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on March 30, 2020, 07:09:13 pm
It didn’t occur to me it has anything to do with politics, but rather with human (mis)understanding of the various scientific or media reports about the pandemic.
I understand but in the absence of good testing information, we are in this state of uncertainty.  To your point, this is a very clear presentation:  https://spectator.us/understand-report-figures-covid-deaths/  I'm pretty much in accord with this and think that the ultimate mortality will be higher than seasonal flu, maybe double at highest.  The reason for the 'social distancing' is to keep the hospitals from being overloaded.  I worry that they won't be able to take care of serious non-pandemic stuff like bone fractures, cardiac problems, etc.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on March 30, 2020, 07:36:37 pm
Combined effort  Mercedes F1 and UCL intensive care dept.
high pressure oxygen unit fuels a tight fitting air mask or helmet,
forced air to keep the lungs open and get the air into blood stream.
100 hours to design , 10 days to get approval.

Sorry, just heard/saw this off SKY news, just a snippet  ...
hopefully further details soon in the press
(unit looks no bigger than a large battery pack)
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on March 30, 2020, 07:51:39 pm
< Dunning-Kruger Effect (DKE) is a phenomenon where people lack the ability to understand their lack of ability >

Seeing this in various forms, but irrespective this IS a pandemic and it IS a crisis. To focus on per capita data is missing the point and for where we are today is wholly irrelevant.

If comparing prevalence of cancer between countries, you’d adjust per capita,  because it’s not a transmissible disease: it comes from lifestyle, genes, pure chance, so if per-capita rate is higher in A than B, then that’s because of something specific to that country.  Covid spreads from person to person; it’s not like cancer. It’s exogenous.

Generally, these digressions are not informative regarding HOW a country’s dealing with Covid-19.  So all we should be focussed on is the % increase as a measure of expansion (and containment). The rest can come later.

What’s clear is countries that adopted strict social distancing and early bird policies are faring substantially better than those who delayed. See the Australian stats in BobShaw’s post above.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on March 30, 2020, 08:24:51 pm
Combined effort  Mercedes F1 and UCL intensive care dept.
high pressure oxygen unit fuels a tight fitting air mask or helmet,
forced air to keep the lungs open and get the air into blood stream.
100 hours to design , 10 days to get approval.

Sorry, just heard/saw this off SKY news, just a snippet  ...
hopefully further details soon in the press
(unit looks no bigger than a large battery pack)

Those are basically CPAP/BiPAP machines, and we do have more of those although even more can't hurt.
The issue that I mentioned earlier is because of the high pressures there is significant aerosolization, and with Covid living up to 3h on air the risk to the people around is very high. This could be done in dedicated negative pressure floors where all patients are Covid positive and the medical personal has adequate protective equipment; it can be done but it's easier said than done. The failure to do both can explain at some extent the high rate of infection within physicians in Italy.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on March 30, 2020, 08:55:53 pm
Those are basically CPAP/BiPAP machines, and we do have more of those although even more can't hurt.

Spot on, Armand.
from The Times UK

Quote
A non-invasive breathing aid that can help to keep coronavirus patients from requiring intensive care has been developed and approved in a few days.

The device, known as continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP), was created by a partnership between the Mercedes Formula One team, University College London (UCL) and University College London Hospital (UCLH).

They work by pushing a mix of oxygen and air into the mouth and nose at a continuous rate, thereby increasing the oxygen into the lungs. They bridge the gap between an oxygen mask and the need for full mechanical ventilation, during which the patient must be sedated. Using them early can help prevent a patient needing ICU treatment.

Professor Tim Baker, of UCL’s department of mechanical engineering, said: “Given the urgent need, we are thankful that we were able to reduce a process that could take years down to a matter of days.

“We worked all hours of the day, disassembling and analysing an off-patent device. Using simulations we improved the device further to create a state-of-the-art version suited to mass production. We were privileged to be able to call on the capability of Formula One.”

The new design is an adapted and improved version, created via a process called reverse engineering. The Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency gave its approval to the device at the weekend. The first 100 machines are being delivered to UCLH for clinical trials. If they prove an asset they can be rapidly given to NHS hospitals across the country.

Some patients with Covid-19 develop inflammation in the lining of their lungs, and their alveoli, small buds responsible for transporting oxygen into the blood stream, collapse.

Experts from the Institute of Physics and Engineering in Medicine explained: “CPAP feels similar to breathing whilst having your head out the window of a moving car. The extra pressure helps to open up, and keep open, the collapsed alveoli and push oxygen across the inflamed lung membrane. Therefore, CPAP increases blood oxygen more than just giving oxygen using a conventional oxygen mask.”

[...]  “If the patient can stay on a CPAP machine, they can stay on a ward looked after by specialised nurses rather than ICU nurses. A ward can probably look after ten of these patients with two nurses and one doctor. Ten patients in ICU may need five or ten nurses and three to four doctors. The cost and manpower needed in ICU is much, much greater, and ICU is a lot more complex and hazardous.”
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Jeremy Roussak on March 31, 2020, 03:53:21 am
TV reports that Mercedes F1/ have designed a simpler design ventilator. Simpler both to manufacture and operate. Not verified and no further details AFAIK.

It's not a ventilator, it's some kind of simple CPAP device. Interestingly, it appears to have been approved by the relevant body (MHRA) with quite staggering speed.

Jeremy
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on March 31, 2020, 05:03:01 am
My 97 year old mother-in-law is in an assisted living residence close by.  They shut it down for all visitors including my wife, her mother.  Further up in New Jersey, a similar home had many deaths as the virus broke out there.  So old age facilities are taken strong measures to protect the residents.  They all have to eat in their rooms and not in the common dining room.  It must be very tough on many of these people as they're isolated from friends and family.

I hope over there measures were implemented on time. The criticalthing is doing thing preventively, otherwise it is a disaster. The way this thing propagates initially, with small numbers, gives a false sense of security. Just because initailly the numbers are small, they still gorw exponentially and double every 2 or 3 days. This is happening in the islands of Portugal, Azores and Madeira - afew days ago there were 1 or 2 cases only, now it's reaching 50.

The safest area in Portugal is Alentejo province, where people live far away from each other. Even in medieval times, Kings would go there to avoid the plague...
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on March 31, 2020, 06:55:42 am
Auatralia ... result of adopting timely safety measures

Quote
4,400 coronavirus cases nationally ...  rate of growth in new infections slowing from 25-30% a week ago to an average of 9% over the past three days. Of those, 50 people were in intensive care and 20 were on ventilators, Hunt said. The death toll stood at 19.

Reuters (https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-australia/australias-coronavirus-infection-rate-shows-sustained-slowdown-idUSKBN21H3IM)
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Slobodan Blagojevic on March 31, 2020, 08:48:19 am
... What’s clear is countries that adopted strict social distancing and early bird policies are faring substantially better than those who delayed...

How about Sweden?

No lockdown here: Sweden defends its more relaxed coronavirus strategy

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/sweden-coronavirus-approach-is-very-different-from-the-rest-of-europe.html
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Martin Kristiansen on March 31, 2020, 08:58:12 am
How about Sweden?

No lockdown here: Sweden defends its more relaxed coronavirus strategy

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/sweden-coronavirus-approach-is-very-different-from-the-rest-of-europe.html

Yes that’s very interesting. I hope like hell it works out for them. If it does I can perhaps get on with my life. I am 60 this year and don’t feel like spending what remains of life under house arrest. I want to drive the 600km to Durban and swim in the warm Indian Ocean. And that’s just for starters.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on March 31, 2020, 09:20:17 am
How about Sweden?

No lockdown here: Sweden defends its more relaxed coronavirus strategy

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/sweden-coronavirus-approach-is-very-different-from-the-rest-of-europe.html

Reading throught the entire article, they have implemented already some measures: no gatherings of more than 50 people (it used to be 500), all schools above 16 years of age are closed, older people are already being protected. I may be pessimistic, but the latest data from the link in the article is showing ~4,400 cases and 180 deaths. Of course, it all depends on each country "tolerance" threshold for death tolls, and each country preparedness in terms of health care and ICU capability.

Looking at swedish data from the linin the article, the distribution of age-infected and age of calsualties mimics other countries.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on March 31, 2020, 09:24:12 am
How about Sweden?

What about Sweden ?
Social distancing and early adoption ...

Quote
While the rest of Europe imposes severe restrictions on public life and closes borders and businesses, Sweden is taking a more relaxed approach to the coronavirus outbreak.

This apparently laissez-faire approach has attracted criticism both from within Sweden, from a group of epidemiologists, as well from other countries which are locking down public life to curb the outbreak.

“Sweden has gone mostly for voluntary measures because that’s how we’re used to working,” Tegnell added.
He said the agency had explained to the population why social distancing was needed, “and so far, it’s been working reasonably well.”

Sweden has 3,700 confirmed cases of coronavirus and has recorded 110 deaths, the latest data from the Public Health Agency shows.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on March 31, 2020, 09:50:54 am

(https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-eu.s3.amazonaws.com%2F6fcbcb4c-72c1-11ea-95fe-fcd274e920ca?fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=1080)
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: KLaban on March 31, 2020, 10:30:33 am
Yes that’s very interesting. I hope like hell it works out for them. If it does I can perhaps get on with my life. I am 60 this year and don’t feel like spending what remains of life under house arrest. I want to drive the 600km to Durban and swim in the warm Indian Ocean. And that’s just for starters.

My wife and I live to travel and make images: one would be so much the poorer without the other. We are itching to resume normal life but are quite prepared if necessary to be constrained for the rest of this year for our and the greater good.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Rob C on March 31, 2020, 10:38:50 am
Race to find COVID-19 treatments accelerates
Full article: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6485/1412.full

(https://science.sciencemag.org/content/sci/367/6485/1412/F1.large.jpg)

FWIW, which is probably not a lot, No 5 looks a lot like a coil that went wrong at some stage of the game. Boing, boing, boing - oh! ouch!

;-)
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on March 31, 2020, 10:56:40 am
Lessons learned?

https://www.nationalgeographic.com/history/2020/03/how-cities-flattened-curve-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic-coronavirus/?fbclid=IwAR3hY0g_MAFepN31fSV6v50Lr07Jkmm6UnELWfm1LExolZVtR6X3PuAHAyQ

1918 pandemia.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 31, 2020, 11:03:19 am
You'd think after WWI  there wouldn't have been WWII. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on March 31, 2020, 11:17:39 am
How about Sweden?

No lockdown here: Sweden defends its more relaxed coronavirus strategy
IIRC, this is what the UK initially proposed to do.  Then the Imperial College model came out and they changed to a 'lock-down' model.  Sweden are now seeing accelerating mortality compared to Denmark.  We will see how this strategy plays out.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Martin Kristiansen on March 31, 2020, 11:25:49 am
My wife and I live to travel and make images: one would be so much the poorer without the other. We are itching to resume normal life but are quite prepared if necessary to be constrained for the rest of this year for our and the greater good.

Absolutely. But hope does spring eternal in the human bosom.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Rob C on March 31, 2020, 12:48:56 pm
Absolutely. But hope does spring eternal in the human bosom.


Quite apart from the fact that many absolutely would spring for a human bosom.

:-(
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: John Camp on March 31, 2020, 07:48:29 pm
Using the numbers on the Johns Hopkins website, the US mortality rate is about 2%, or roughly 20 times higher than the average flu. But because of the lack of testing, we really don't know how many uncounted cases there are. I still don't understand the lack of a scientific sampling, which could be done in a few days with a high level of confidence in the result.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on March 31, 2020, 07:59:28 pm
Using the numbers on the Johns Hopkins website, the US mortality rate is about 2%, or roughly 20 times higher than the average flu. But because of the lack of testing, we really don't know how many uncounted cases there are. I still don't understand the lack of a scientific sampling, which could be done in a few days with a high level of confidence in the result.

And how confident is one with the actual counts of people that contract the yearly flu. I for one if I get a flu like condition during the winter months don't go to the doctor or hospital so I don't get counted.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on March 31, 2020, 08:26:49 pm
And how confident is one with the actual counts of people that contract the yearly flu. I for one if I get a flu like condition during the winter months don't go to the doctor or hospital so I don't get counted.

Small sampling is extrapolated to the whole population. 
You don't have to test everyone.  If you sample a thousand people in the state and 30 of them have the disease, that's 3%. If the whole state has 10 million people's you extrapolate the amount and say that 30000 in the state have the disease.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Jim Pascoe on April 01, 2020, 04:35:08 am
And how confident is one with the actual counts of people that contract the yearly flu. I for one if I get a flu like condition during the winter months don't go to the doctor or hospital so I don't get counted.

Is that real influenza - or what we call her in the UK - 'Man Flu'.......?  I'm 58 and I don't think I have ever had flu - I have had one chest infection and many bad colds though......
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Rob C on April 01, 2020, 04:44:23 am
And how confident is one with the actual counts of people that contract the yearly flu. I for one if I get a flu like condition during the winter months don't go to the doctor or hospital so I don't get counted.


That's why I found the dearth of kitchen roll more annoying than any shortage of loo roll. I am blessed with cold symptoms from the onset of the winter season; I doubt that a winter's day goes past that I have not sneezed or blown holes through paper towels.

No quack has a record of my symptoms these past so many years: I accept them as part of being whatever I happen to be. You could say that I found a crack through which to slip, time and time again.

;-(
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 01, 2020, 08:00:33 am
April 1st - but this, sadly, is no April fools post.

News that a Chinese female doctor, amongst the first to not just raise the alarm but criticise the authorities, hard on being dismissed, has now 'disappeared'. Regrettably, not limited to China - The Times UK today reports that UK frontline medics are 'threatened with the sack' if they speak of PPE shortages.

Times also reporting what most of us already know, UK response was woeful, politically expedient and tardy.

Quote
Nervtag (New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats Advisory Group) meeting, February 21, concluded that the official risk assessment should remain unchanged: “Current PHE risk assessment of the disease is moderate. The PHE risk assessment to the UK population is also moderate. This is a composite of what is known about transmission and the impact on public health globally and in the UK.”

The disclosure of the minutes offers a glimpse of scientific thinking as the outbreak emerged and raises questions about the speed of the response.  On the day that the advisers met, Italy recorded its first coronavirus death and two days later schools in the north of the country were closed.

In the UK, schools were not closed until March 18, pubs and gyms followed, and a full lockdown was put in place on March 23.



Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 01, 2020, 08:06:15 am
Final irony ;

Quote
Donald Trump has criticised Boris Johnson’s initial approach to the coronavirus pandemic saying it would have been “catastrophic” for the US.  Britain’s relative shortage of ventilators was also highlighted in a White House briefing that will intensify pressure on the prime minister’s handling of the crisis.

Criticism is mounting as supplies of critical equipment promised by ministers fail to materialise, with testing of NHS workers a particular problem. Chris Hopson, the head of NHS Providers, said that if testing was available to all health workers 85 per cent of its staff currently unable to work because of fears they or someone in their household had the virus, could return to the front line.

One piece of positive news :
'Formula One' ventilators(*) are to be delivered to the NHS starting this weekend.

(*)
I'm using the popular term as referred to in the press. Otherwise CPAP.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 01, 2020, 09:01:42 am
Got the email below from a friend. This could explain the high number of deaths in Italy.

Quote
I spoke to one of my Italian friends a couple of days ago. She said that her relatives in Italy reported that people are still not all adhering to the covid restrictions. Her cousin told her that someone got a van, equipped it as a hairdressing/cutting service and drove around neighbourhoods washing and colouring and cutting womens’ hair. Women were lined up in huge lines to get their hair done. Cops shut it down but I suspect the van just drove to another neighbourhood.

I am so surprised by this…why would women want to do this?? And who is going to see them?? (Especially in a closed casket!)
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on April 01, 2020, 10:21:58 am
Using the numbers on the Johns Hopkins website, the US mortality rate is about 2%, or roughly 20 times higher than the average flu. But because of the lack of testing, we really don't know how many uncounted cases there are. I still don't understand the lack of a scientific sampling, which could be done in a few days with a high level of confidence in the result.
John and others, IMO it has been a massive failure of both technology and imagination to not have been able to scale up massive diagnostic testing.  We still don't have an approved serological (blood) test (I did see an Internet hoax yesterday that several news organization who should have known better bit on and published) that can be quickly deployed.  Here is what I wrote in my daily email brief today:

I’m a big fan of podcasts and listen to them when I’m out walking, in my car, or working out.  I may have already mentioned that Noah Feldman, a law professor at Harvard, has a very good one called ‘Deep Background’ https://pushkin.fm/deep-background (all of his podcasts are at the link). Yesterday, he had a conversation with Nobel Laureate in Economics Paul Romer and the discussion moved quickly to massive testing of the US population beyond what is being done right now.  Romer, as we all do, wants to get people back to work and massive testing to find those who have not had SARS-CoV-2 or had it and have recovered would help solve this problem.  There are obvious issues such as drastically ramping up test kits and keeping track of those who test negative, but in this day of big data and even bigger projects, this strikes me as the key one to undertake.  Romer argued the point well and it’s worth a half hour to listen to it.

Yes, it's a massive project but better than sitting on our thumbs.  So many failures.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on April 01, 2020, 10:28:49 am
Updated situation today from Portugal, compared to other countries. Seems that we are distancing from the most scary trends, but others have done better.

Slide 1 - number of cumulative cases versus days, after 100th case.

Slide 2 - number of deaths versus number of days, after the 10th death.

NOTE - Portugal is the black line.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Bart_van_der_Wolf on April 01, 2020, 10:39:55 am
Updated situation today from Portugal, compared to other countries. Seems that we are distancing from the most scary trends, but others have done better.

Slide 1 - number of cumulative cases versus days, after 100th case.

Slide 2 - number of deaths versus number of days, after the 10th death.

NOTE - Portugal is the black line.

Looks promising!
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 01, 2020, 11:07:12 am
... the discussion moved quickly to massive testing of the US population beyond what is being done right now.  Romer, as we all do, wants to get people back to work and massive testing to find those who have not had SARS-CoV-2 or had it and have recovered would help solve this problem.  T

I don't know enough of the situation in the USA, but I would have thought more important to test the front-line medical personnel first.  That's the situation in the UK, and resentment growing by the minute, at the Government's failure to so do coupled w/ failure to provide PPE thereby continuing to endanger all those on the front line. Latest today is that only 14% of the NHS frontline have been tested.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on April 01, 2020, 12:36:28 pm
I don't know enough of the situation in the USA, but I would have thought more important to test the front-line medical personnel first.  That's the situation in the UK, and resentment growing by the minute, at the Government's failure to so do coupled w/ failure to provide PPE thereby continuing to endanger all those on the front line. Latest today is that only 14% of the NHS frontline have been tested.
The whole thing about testing has been a cluster f*ck of high magnitude.  Health care providers here also get first call on testing but there still is not enough testing to go around.  I just saw that our county in Maryland where the National Institutes of Health is headquartered (1/2 mile from my house) cannot get enough test kits to address the local outbreak.  We have a high number of biotech companies here, many of which could be doing testing in a dedicated lab space.  None of this is rocket science.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Bart_van_der_Wolf on April 01, 2020, 12:43:54 pm
I don't know enough of the situation in the USA, but I would have thought more important to test the front-line medical personnel first.

Absolutely, top priority. From the looks of it, in one month time most countries might hit the peak pressure on ICU capacity (both in beds/ventilators as personnel). After that we might consider if there's enough test capability to start up other activities.

Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 01, 2020, 02:18:23 pm
Bright light or false hope ...

Quote
Doctors in New York have been prescribing critically ill coronavirus patients large doses of vitamin C, and it is also being trialled in hard-hit China. The results of a study at Wuhan University - where 140 patients are being given large amounts of the antioxidant intravenously to establish if it could improve outcomes - will not be completed until September.

Dr Andrew Weber, a pulmonologist and critical-care specialist in Long Island, said he had been giving his intensive care coronavirus patients 1,500 milligrams of intravenous vitamin C. Identical amounts of the dosage are then re-administered three or four times a day. "The patients who received vitamin C did significantly better than those who did not get vitamin C," he said.

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-can-large-doses-of-vitamin-c-prevent-or-help-to-treat-covid-19-11966790
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on April 01, 2020, 02:44:16 pm
Bright light or false hope ...

https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-can-large-doses-of-vitamin-c-prevent-or-help-to-treat-covid-19-11966790
anything in the popular press should be taken with a grain of salt.  There is a huge amount of data coming out and it's all I can do just to read all the abstracts each morning.  If one looks at the AI modeling papers that are predicting chemical structures that are or should be potent inhibitors of the virus, one ends up with a lot of compounds.  By my count there are over 70 FDA-approved medicines that have been identified this way.  For some of them we now have in vitro data regarding inhibition of the virus and some are being tested clinically.  The problem is the current clinical trial process is not designed to address pandemic conditions.  I'm sure that this will be addressed by the expert group looking post hoc at the pandemic.  I have my own views based on work I did in the biopharma industry and am working on a paper to this end.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 01, 2020, 03:17:31 pm
The Canadian Prime Minister said today that it is realistic to expect that Covid-19 restrictions could be in place till July. I did not expect different. The number of cases in Canada continues to increase, but the feeling is that lot of those numbers result from increased testing. Deaths in Canada are not increasing at nearly the same rate, which is good. I saw a quote yesterday that only 1 out 2 ICU beds are in use at the moment, but there is still the expectation that the peak is still a couple of weeks away, although some are hopeful that the stay-at-home directives might show results by the end of this week. This last hope may be because sufficient time has passed since the snowbird return. I read an estimate that a million Canadians returned from abroad in March. I guess a lot of people enjoy heat much more than I do.

The upside is that we seem to be getting some feedback that the sacrifices we're making are accomplishing something useful.

One awful aspect is that retirement residences are being hit all over the country. One sad report is that the deaths at one residence, and staff illnesses, were traced back to one lady who had visited her husband.

I spoke with my 97 year old mother at a residence in Montreal that has been in lockdown for 3 weeks. Other than being bored by the 24/7 disease coverage on TV, she's taking it in stride. I guess that living through a depression and a war (in Italy) gives you perspective.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 01, 2020, 05:55:18 pm
NHS Nightingale (https://youtu.be/ey5Ux-2cI0A) : An engineering and logistical masterclass.

Quote
Britain’s first coronavirus field hospital has been built in London and will treat up to 4,000 previously fit and healthy people struck down by Covid-19. London patients in need of intensive care but with the best chance of survival will be taken to the Nightingale hospital, which has been constructed within the ExCel arena in the capital’s Docklands area in the space of a week.

... against that, it’s reported that of an NHS personnel of >500,000, only 2,000 have been tested. Speechless.


*edit: on a lighter note, a humorous press analogy:
Whereas Britain is struggling to carry out 50,000 tests in a week, Germany sometimes does twice as many in a day.  Or to put it in footballing terms – and we are talking about Germany, after all – they can test an entire FA Cup final crowd in the same time it takes the NHS to swab a home crowd at Peterborough United. (5,000)
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on April 02, 2020, 04:22:54 am
The whole thing about testing has been a cluster f*ck of high magnitude.  Health care providers here also get first call on testing but there still is not enough testing to go around.  I just saw that our county in Maryland where the National Institutes of Health is headquartered (1/2 mile from my house) cannot get enough test kits to address the local outbreak.  We have a high number of biotech companies here, many of which could be doing testing in a dedicated lab space.  None of this is rocket science.

In Portugal, a few days ago, we entered the "mitigation" phase, which means testing criteria was expanded to include more people. So now we are doing say 5,000 tests a day, but the labs can not handle that number, so results take a few days.

Today I saw that patients should only leave the hospital after doing 2 (negative) tests, separated 14 days. Thing is, hospitals need the beds, and can not wait for the result of the test #2, so they let the patient out anyway...
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on April 02, 2020, 08:44:28 am
The US FDA finally approved the first blood test for SARS-CoV-2 virus antibodies.  It requires a normal venus puncture blood draw which is not convenient.  We need a test that will work on a pin prick amount of blood.  Despite the approval lots of gene test kits, many states still cannot do enough testing.  The new rapid test kit from Abbott is particularly hard to get and some places will not have the right equipment to run it:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/04/01/scramble-rapid-coronavirus-tests-everybody-wants/
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 02, 2020, 08:51:38 am
A friend found this article about the mathematical modelling of epidemics https://www.wired.com/story/the-mathematics-of-predicting-the-course-of-the-coronavirus (https://www.wired.com/story/the-mathematics-of-predicting-the-course-of-the-coronavirus).

His summary, 'Comparing the Univ of Washington model described here with current figures, it appears that the total US case figure is now where the model predicted it should be in a week's time'. The article is longish but not overly technical.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on April 02, 2020, 11:12:03 am
The Canadian Prime Minister said today that it is realistic to expect that Covid-19 restrictions could be in place till July. I did not expect different. The number of cases in Canada continues to increase, but the feeling is that lot of those numbers result from increased testing. Deaths in Canada are not increasing at nearly the same rate, which is good. I saw a quote yesterday that only 1 out 2 ICU beds are in use at the moment, but there is still the expectation that the peak is still a couple of weeks away, although some are hopeful that the stay-at-home directives might show results by the end of this week. This last hope may be because sufficient time has passed since the snowbird return. I read an estimate that a million Canadians returned from abroad in March. I guess a lot of people enjoy heat much more than I do.

The upside is that we seem to be getting some feedback that the sacrifices we're making are accomplishing something useful.

One awful aspect is that retirement residences are being hit all over the country. One sad report is that the deaths at one residence, and staff illnesses, were traced back to one lady who had visited her husband.

I spoke with my 97 year old mother at a residence in Montreal that has been in lockdown for 3 weeks. Other than being bored by the 24/7 disease coverage on TV, she's taking it in stride. I guess that living through a depression and a war (in Italy) gives you perspective.

I really find it appaling that countries have not prepared for this subject of retirement homes. I see the same problem in Italy, Spain, Portugal, and now you mention Canada.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on April 02, 2020, 11:26:01 am
A friend found this article about the mathematical modelling of epidemics https://www.wired.com/story/the-mathematics-of-predicting-the-course-of-the-coronavirus (https://www.wired.com/story/the-mathematics-of-predicting-the-course-of-the-coronavirus).

His summary, 'Comparing the Univ of Washington model described here with current figures, it appears that the total US case figure is now where the model predicted it should be in a week's time'. The article is longish but not overly technical.
This is one of the things I have been tracking.  I am seeing about 5-6 pre-prints of models every day.  There are some nice ones that have been put up on GitHub for researchers to use.  The are all probably within 10% of one another.  The big thing is to relieve the burden on hospitals and then put a massive testing infrastructure in place so that people can get back to work.  I'm working on some lessons learned papers to better inform on how to deal with the next one.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 02, 2020, 11:30:12 am
I really find it appaling that countries have not prepared for this subject of retirement homes. I see the same problem in Italy, Spain, Portugal, and now you mention Canada.

They are very vulnerable places. Old population, many health problems, with not always a good understanding of biology, communal eating and people coming to visit all the time. My mother's residence closed to all visitors weeks ago and are delivering food to each apartment, no congregating in the lounge areas, etc. But you can see how a simple slip-up, e.g., delivering prescriptions, could cause a problem. And there is a fairly large staff who go home every night, although they have their own incentive to abide by rules and guidelines, they don't want to get sick either.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: hogloff on April 02, 2020, 01:25:22 pm
They are very vulnerable places. Old population, many health problems, with not always a good understanding of biology, communal eating and people coming to visit all the time. My mother's residence closed to all visitors weeks ago and are delivering food to each apartment, no congregating in the lounge areas, etc. But you can see how a simple slip-up, e.g., delivering prescriptions, could cause a problem. And there is a fairly large staff who go home every night, although they have their own incentive to abide by rules and guidelines, they don't want to get sick either.

I've had my father/mother in law in full time care homes and the biggest problem is the lack of facilities and staff. There is a constant long line of patients waiting to get a spot in these care homes and the staff in these homes work their butts off, burning out and having a huge turn over. With the boomer bulge about to enter that stage, it's going to be a huge issue.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 03, 2020, 08:01:46 am
Cross-posted in the 'other' thread, but more useful here :


(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49730423701_617bb2a1b9_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/2iLvqoi)

(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49730417596_f6bffe5ab7_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/2iLvoz3)

(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49730767132_9329583ce7_b.jpg)
 (https://flic.kr/p/2iLxbtw)
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 03, 2020, 08:53:44 am
Looks like the data is going to be examined from every angle, and should be. Is there anyone looking at the impact of travel? People are arguing about the exact date that travel to China was stopped, but given how ubiquitous travel is everywhere would it have had much impact to do it sooner? Canada stopped/controlled travel to China, I forget on which date, but about a million Canadians returned from abroad in the last few weeks. Isn't that kind of a wash from the point of view of risk?

It seems kind of impossible to isolate any one region of the globe after the fact, although some travel slowdown might aid in curve flattening. That is to say, it's just one more facet not necessarily a critical one. Is this sensible or am I missing something?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 03, 2020, 10:34:53 am
I have a question about face masks, as they are being touted as a useful tool to wear generally.

The first report I heard/read about this (some podcast or other about 3 weeks ago) was that the virus was about a micron in size whereas masks were good down to about 3 microns. Is this correct or faulty memory on my part?  The thing is that it's all a haze now, not sure which masks they were talking about anymore.

Is it the mask itself that is helping or is it that people who wear masks are just generally more careful and do everything else right too? How would you even determine this?

It would be counter-productive if people start to feel invincible because they have a mask on.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Slobodan Blagojevic on April 03, 2020, 10:52:53 am
... It would be counter-productive if people start to feel invincible because they have a mask on.

About half of the people I encountered in restaurants and shops wear their masks around their neck.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Bart_van_der_Wolf on April 03, 2020, 11:17:39 am
I have a question about face masks, as they are being touted as a useful tool to wear generally.

The first report I heard/read about this (some podcast or other about 3 weeks ago) was that the virus was about a micron in size whereas masks were good down to about 3 microns. Is this correct or faulty memory on my part?  The thing is that it's all a haze now, not sure which masks they were talking about anymore.

Is it the mask itself that is helping or is it that people who wear masks are just generally more careful and do everything else right too? How would you even determine this?

It would be counter-productive if people start to feel invincible because they have a mask on.

From what I've heard, the size is < 1.0 micron. But direct infection is not likely if people maintain a physical distance of 5-6 feet. Probably most infections are indirect, from toughing infected surfaces and subsequently eyes, nose or mouth. Face masks can make matters worse, increasing infection, when touched (taking them off). Besides, they are more useful in the hands of trained medical professionals, whom are faced with a shortage.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 03, 2020, 11:23:17 am
About half of the people I encountered in restaurants and shops wear their masks around their neck.

Kind of makes sense in a restaurant.  :)
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Bart_van_der_Wolf on April 03, 2020, 11:37:23 am
Kind of makes sense in a restaurant.  :)

Absolutely, but why are they open anyway?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 03, 2020, 11:44:46 am
From my point of view the main benefit of a mask is to decrease the extent of infectious particles that somebody infected will spread, particularly if they cough. Also there will be less contaminated surfaces that aren't touched or cleaned that often if you cough with a mask on.
The other possible advantage would be that it will decrease how often you touch your face if you have a mask.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 03, 2020, 12:05:25 pm
Fighting COVID-19 Is Like 'Whack-A-Mole,' Says Writer Who Warned Of A Pandemic

https://www.npr.org/sections/health-shots/2020/04/01/825179922/fighting-covid-19-is-like-whack-a-mole-says-writer-who-warned-of-pandemic
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: hogloff on April 03, 2020, 01:09:31 pm
I have a question about face masks, as they are being touted as a useful tool to wear generally.

The first report I heard/read about this (some podcast or other about 3 weeks ago) was that the virus was about a micron in size whereas masks were good down to about 3 microns. Is this correct or faulty memory on my part?  The thing is that it's all a haze now, not sure which masks they were talking about anymore.

Is it the mask itself that is helping or is it that people who wear masks are just generally more careful and do everything else right too? How would you even determine this?

It would be counter-productive if people start to feel invincible because they have a mask on.

It's the opposite of what you are thinking. The mask does more good preventing the virus from being airborne from people already infected. That is one reason people think Asian countries better handle this virus, their culture of not spreading their germs onto others. In Japan it is looked down upon if you cough or sneeze in the presence of others...thus many wears masks when they are sick so not to spread their virus onto others.

The western culture is to protect self, the Asian culture is to protect others.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Slobodan Blagojevic on April 03, 2020, 01:27:25 pm
Kind of makes sense in a restaurant.  :)

I meant restaurant workers who are preparing takeout food and delivering it to you through a narrow opening. In my town, restaurants are closed. Not in Sweden though.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 03, 2020, 01:38:54 pm
I have a question about face masks, as they are being touted as a useful tool to wear generally.

This is an ongoing issue, or as the CMO said this afternoon in his daily Downing Street broadcast, somwthinng under discussion for over 15 years. The Brits, in the absence of definitive stats, consider it essential only for medical staff. In Asia, it's customary / habitual.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Slobodan Blagojevic on April 03, 2020, 01:44:16 pm
... In Asia, it's customary / habitual.

Isn't it also for polluted air (crop burning)?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 03, 2020, 01:46:50 pm
Isn't it also for polluted air (crop burning)?

Try one in a polluted area and see how much they help.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: John Camp on April 03, 2020, 01:46:58 pm
From what I've heard, the size is < 1.0 micron. But direct infection is not likely if people maintain a physical distance of 5-6 feet. Probably most infections are indirect, from toughing infected surfaces and subsequently eyes, nose or mouth. Face masks can make matters worse, increasing infection, when touched (taking them off). Besides, they are more useful in the hands of trained medical professionals, whom are faced with a shortage.

As I understand it, the viruses are less than a micron, but are not spread as naked viruses -- they are embedded in saliva spray (as in coughing) and the spray droplets are considerably larger than 3 microns. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 03, 2020, 01:53:58 pm
From what I've heard, the size is < 1.0 micron. But direct infection is not likely if people maintain a physical distance of 5-6 feet. Probably most infections are indirect, from toughing infected surfaces and subsequently eyes, nose or mouth. Face masks can make matters worse, increasing infection, when touched (taking them off). Besides, they are more useful in the hands of trained medical professionals, whom are faced with a shortage.

As I understand it, the viruses are less than a micron, but are not spread as naked viruses -- they are embedded in saliva spray (as in coughing) and the spray droplets are considerably larger than 3 microns. 

You are both correct.
Most infections are from indirect contact, particularly as this virus seems to be a little more resilient than the regular flu. If you keep touching your mask and not wash hands after, it can do more harm than good.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 03, 2020, 02:01:05 pm
As I understand it, the viruses are less than a micron, but are not spread as naked viruses -- they are embedded in saliva spray (as in coughing) ...

That doesn't entirely fit with the hand to eyes/nose/mouth infection risk. I'm not saying it's incorect, just that from what I'm hearing the risk is equally spread.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 03, 2020, 02:03:12 pm
...  If you keep touching your mask and find wash hands after, it can do more harm than good.

Armand, could you clarify this, please ?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 03, 2020, 02:10:48 pm
Armand, could you clarify this, please ?

Sorry, typing from my phone with autocorrect enabled can lead to weird statements.

When you have the mask on, it can protect you from droplets from nearby coughers and it can prevent you from touching your face with contaminated hands. However, you should consider your mask as a contamination source when you take it off or just touching it.

So you should take it off with care not to touch the outside of your mask to your face, or to touch  your face with your hands when you take the mask off. After it's off, you should immediately wash your hands or use sanitizer.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 03, 2020, 02:13:57 pm
That doesn't entirely fit with the hand to eyes/nose/mouth infection risk. I'm not saying it's incorect, just that from what I'm hearing the risk is equally spread.
 


When you cough, those droplets can go directly on somebody's face or to different surfaces.
It can live on those surfaces for various amounts of time, hours to days. If you touch those surfaces (eg. knobs) with your hands and then touch your face (mouth, nose, eyes) you risk getting the virus that way.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 03, 2020, 02:32:53 pm
Armand, thanks!
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 03, 2020, 02:46:49 pm
I meant restaurant workers who are preparing takeout food and delivering it to you through a narrow opening. In my town, restaurants are closed. Not in Sweden though.

Ok, gotcha.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on April 03, 2020, 03:30:47 pm
Looks like the data is going to be examined from every angle, and should be. Is there anyone looking at the impact of travel? People are arguing about the exact date that travel to China was stopped, but given how ubiquitous travel is everywhere would it have had much impact to do it sooner? Canada stopped/controlled travel to China, I forget on which date, but about a million Canadians returned from abroad in the last few weeks. Isn't that kind of a wash from the point of view of risk?

It seems kind of impossible to isolate any one region of the globe after the fact, although some travel slowdown might aid in curve flattening. That is to say, it's just one more facet not necessarily a critical one. Is this sensible or am I missing something?
the big outbreak in Boston started at a meeting of world-wide representatives at a biopharma company, Biogen.  There were reps from Italy who brought the disease here and spread it.  there are other stories as well.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on April 03, 2020, 03:33:38 pm
About half of the people I encountered in restaurants and shops wear their masks around their neck.
I don't wear one when I go out.  I figure I'm protected because everyone else is wearing them.  I go to the store at 0700 when it opens for an hour for those >60 years.  There was a guy who was in line and was taking his mask on and off.  The mask also doesn't protect you from virus getting into your eyes or on non-mask parts of your face which you then touch when you get home!!
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 03, 2020, 08:30:54 pm
here is a well-made video about the benefits of making and using face masks. 3'30" in length. Made in a country with a low C19 infection and death count.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jZtEX2-n2Hc
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Chris Kern on April 03, 2020, 10:09:53 pm
here is a well-made video about the benefits of making and using face masks. . . . Made in a country with a low C19 infection and death count.

Similarly Taiwan, where anyone leaving home is required to wear a face mask.  Currently 348 confirmed cases and five deaths attributed to COVID-19 on the island, which has a population of just under 24 million.  Taiwan is not restricting movement to the extent of most countries, but my wife's brother, who lives in Taipei, told her this evening that the body temperature of anyone entering a business, government, or other public building is checked.  (Singapore has essentially identical rules.)

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is now, somewhat belatedly, also recommending their use:

Quote
We now know from recent studies that a significant portion of individuals with coronavirus lack symptoms (“asymptomatic”) and that even those who eventually develop symptoms (“pre-symptomatic”) can transmit the virus to others before showing symptoms.  This means that the virus can spread between people interacting in close proximity—for example, speaking, coughing, or sneezing—even if those people are not exhibiting symptoms.  In light of this new evidence, CDC recommends wearing cloth face coverings in public settings where other social distancing measures are difficult to maintain (e.g., grocery stores and pharmacies) especially in areas of significant community-based transmission.

In addition to preventing the spread of droplets from coughs or sneezes, a mask also reduces the risk that the wearer will unknowingly touch his or her face with a hand that has been in contact with a surface containing virus-laden droplets.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 03, 2020, 10:22:05 pm
About half of the people I encountered in restaurants and shops wear their masks around their neck.
How do you eat if you're wearing the mask around your mouth?  Not only won't the germs get in.  Neither will the Big Mac. :)
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 03, 2020, 10:31:46 pm
I don't wear one when I go out.  I figure I'm protected because everyone else is wearing them.  I go to the store at 0700 when it opens for an hour for those >60 years.  There was a guy who was in line and was taking his mask on and off.  The mask also doesn't protect you from virus getting into your eyes or on non-mask parts of your face which you then touch when you get home!!
My wife and I refuse to go into a store any longer, mask or no mask.  Curbside pickup using phone orders only. I just got in 50 surgical type masks.  I think So Korea made them.  Does not seem to have any credentials.  But I suppose it's better then nothing.  I ordered some KN-95 and more surgical type masks directly from China.  I figure they must know what they're doing if their statistics are real, an unlikely situation.  I hope I get them soon.   
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 03, 2020, 10:38:36 pm
I think the CDC is opposed to regular people using them is to protect supplies for emergency and medical workers.  If you shop on Amazon, they have a note to that effect.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 03, 2020, 11:54:17 pm
How do you eat if you're wearing the mask around your mouth?  Not only won't the germs get in.  Neither will the Big Mac. :)

You marinade it in a kosher pickle brine for 24 hours, then put thinly sliced Harvatti cheese and salsa on it.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 04, 2020, 12:00:09 am
You marinade it in a kosher pickle brine for 24 hours, then put thinly sliced Harvatti cheese and salsa on it.
That would kill the virus germs for sure.  I think you should patent it.  It would make a great vaccine as well.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: kamma1 on April 04, 2020, 02:18:29 am
I don't wear one when I go out.  I figure I'm protected because everyone else is wearing them. 

And you don't feel you should protect other people from you, in case you're carrying it?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Rob C on April 04, 2020, 04:50:42 am
About half of the people I encountered in restaurants and shops wear their masks around their neck.

Jesus, your restaurants are still open? And you go to them?

P.S.

Thanks for the explanaton later on in the thread.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Rob C on April 04, 2020, 04:57:34 am
And you don't feel you should protect other people from you, in case you're carrying it?

Yes, I too found that a surprising statement/attitude from somebody in the medic business.

Rob
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Bart_van_der_Wolf on April 04, 2020, 05:05:43 am
My wife and I refuse to go into a store any longer, mask or no mask.  Curbside pickup using phone orders only. I just got in 50 surgical type masks.  I think So Korea made them.  Does not seem to have any credentials.  But I suppose it's better then nothing.  I ordered some KN-95 and more surgical type masks directly from China.  I figure they must know what they're doing if their statistics are real, an unlikely situation.  I hope I get them soon.

While I'm sceptical about the benefits of wearing masks in non-medical environments (keeping distance in public space and washing hands works almost as well), there are some things that can be done to improve surgical type masks.

Fix the mask:
https://www.fixthemask.com/

Masks need to be discarded regularly or they will become a larger source of contamination than not wearing them. I think that at this moment in time into the process, it's better to make sure that medical professionals have access to these masks.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Bart_van_der_Wolf on April 04, 2020, 05:27:39 am
And you don't feel you should protect other people from you, in case you're carrying it?

Just keep distance (5-6 feet). The droplets do not travel much farther than that before settling on surfaces, so you won't contaminate others, and others can't contaminate you. BTW one should stay out of spaces with others as much as possible anyway, limit the number of shopping trips and wash hands (before and after).
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Rob C on April 04, 2020, 06:55:20 am
Just keep distance (5-6 feet). The droplets do not travel much farther than that before settling on surfaces, so you won't contaminate others, and others can't contaminate you. BTW one should stay out of spaces with others as much as possible anyway, limit the number of shopping trips and wash hands (before and after).

After shopping, I extend that regime to include giving the face a good wash. After all, it has a greater surface than just the exposed eyes and ears!

Rob
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 04, 2020, 06:57:10 am
A multinational consortium shows promising in vitro trial https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-04-trial-drug-significantly-block-early.html (https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-04-trial-drug-significantly-block-early.html). Early tests show the drug stops early stage cell penetration. I know nothing other than that, a friend found this.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 04, 2020, 07:01:23 am
From Nature, an article about airborne transmission and the efficacy of masks https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41591-020-0843-2).
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Jeremy Roussak on April 04, 2020, 08:21:59 am
I don't wear one when I go out.  I figure I'm protected because everyone else is wearing them.

How very public-spirited of you, Alan.

Let us hope that you don't catch it and spread it, by coughing and sneezing, because you aren't wearing a mask.

Jeremy
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on April 04, 2020, 08:29:05 am
A multinational consortium shows promising in vitro trial https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-04-trial-drug-significantly-block-early.html (https://medicalxpress.com/news/2020-04-trial-drug-significantly-block-early.html). Early tests show the drug stops early stage cell penetration. I know nothing other than that, a friend found this.
I read this paper when it came out as a pre-print.  This is not a drug but a genetically engineered protein that is similar to the protein binding site of the virus.  It will likely have to be infused as it cannot be given orally.  It's unclear whether it is useful in treating severely ill patients and it certainly does not have any utility for treating those with moderate symptoms to shorten the duration of viral infections.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on April 04, 2020, 08:31:25 am
How very public-spirited of you, Alan.

Let us hope that you don't catch it and spread it, by coughing and sneezing, because you aren't wearing a mask.

Jeremy
I don't cough or sneeze when I go out.  When I go to the market, I am in and out in 10 minutes and always use the self-check out.  I also live in a suburban, low density, housing setting.  It's good to see that you have not lost your snarky sense of humor and have no comprehension of living and shopping environments here in the US.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 04, 2020, 11:08:33 am
The brilliant Governor of my state of New Jersey has been recommending that family members practice social distancing at home.  Of course, my wife and I have been practicing that since before the virus.  :)

New Jersey governor says people should practice social distancing with 'other family members' at home

https://www.foxnews.com/us/new-jersey-social-distancing-recommendation
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 04, 2020, 11:13:32 am
The brilliant Governor of my state of New Jersey has been recommending that family members practice social distancing at home.  Of course, my wife and I have been practicing that since before the virus.  :)

New Jersey governor says people should practice social distancing with 'other family members' at home

What about all the people who are trying to find someone with whom they could do the social distancing?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 04, 2020, 11:50:27 am
What about all the people who are trying to find someone with whom they could do the social distancing?
Actually, I know people, single, who are very lonely having to be cooped up with themselves, not being able to get out. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: faberryman on April 04, 2020, 12:00:19 pm
Actually, I know people, single, who are very lonely having to be cooped up with themselves, not being able to get out.
I hope you told them welcome to retirement.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Jeremy Roussak on April 04, 2020, 01:48:06 pm
I don't cough or sneeze when I go out.  When I go to the market, I am in and out in 10 minutes and always use the self-check out.  I also live in a suburban, low density, housing setting.  It's good to see that you have not lost your snarky sense of humor and have no comprehension of living and shopping environments here in the US.

You cannot possibly know when you go out whether or not you will cough or sneeze at some point during the trip. Rather than take part in precautions, you are throwing the burden on everyone else.

If you believe that masks serve any purpose (and you clearly do, or you would have suggested that everyone else is wasting their time rather than relying on them to do the right thing), your behaviour is quite reprehensible. You are being selfish and irresponsible. "I'm too important to bother with safety mechanisms: the little people can do that. I shall strut as I choose." Leona Helmsley lives.

Jeremy
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on April 04, 2020, 01:56:17 pm
You cannot possibly know when you go out whether or not you will cough or sneeze at some point during the trip. Rather than take part in precautions, you are throwing the burden on everyone else.

If you believe that masks serve any purpose (and you clearly do, or you would have suggested that everyone else is wasting their time rather than relying on them to do the right thing), your behaviour is quite reprehensible. You are being selfish and irresponsible. "I'm too important to bother with safety mechanisms: the little people can do that. I shall strut as I choose." Leona Helmsley lives.

Jeremy
I'm taking all the necessary precautions.  What works for you where you live may be entirely different from over here.  Have you spent 10 seconds wondering why people are wearing masks but now protective eye glasses since the virus can enter there?  Most people are wearing their masks wrong, some even adjust them while they are out.  I could go on and on and on.  If it will please you, I'll gladly wear a bandana next time I go to the market. 

There are small number of us who are trying to present up to date scientific information here; I don't see you doing this, only scolding people.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 04, 2020, 02:39:38 pm
The best way to go about it is to consider that you are infected and to adjust you behavior as to not infect others.
Even if you think you are not.

This would be the most effective way to limit the spread. It's even more valid for young people who will be asymptomatic more often, but you never know. You can be asymptomatic but infectious for 2 days prior to starting having symptoms.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 04, 2020, 02:44:55 pm
CDC even shows you how to make a quick facemask: https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/prevent-getting-sick/cloth-face-cover.html
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 04, 2020, 05:28:18 pm
How Germany seems to be doing it better, because they learned from others' experiences and had good foresight: https://nyti.ms/2JEVPH6
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: BobShaw on April 04, 2020, 08:40:16 pm
The thing with masks is that they are not designed to protect the wearer. A doctor wears a mask to protect the vulnerable patient from infection. If the patient is known to be highly infectious then they wear a lot more, like full covering.

Asians quite often wear masks to not infect others. It is part of their culture, so it is not uncommon to see them all wearing them all the time, especially now.

The mask actually is a collector of germs so it needs to be thrown out or washed each time. Touching the mask to remove it exposes you and you should wash your hands immediately.

In Australia we are being told not to wear masks as they need them for medical people. A few are complaining but all of the experts are saying not to wear them.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 04, 2020, 08:56:00 pm
In Australia we are being told not to wear masks as they need them for medical people. A few are complaining but all of the experts are saying not to wear them.

Yes, the medical and surgical masks should be reserved for medical staff. However, wearing simple homemade masks or bandanas won't jeopardize the wearers or other bystanders.
I just got a simple mask sewn by a friend, and I know of many other people making masks for themselves and their family. There are plenty of youtube videos how to make simple masks even without sewing.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: RichDesmond on April 04, 2020, 09:13:13 pm
Given that store-bought masks are going to be unobtanium for a while, I did a little research on DIY masks. Turns out blue shop towel is a good material.

https://totallythebomb.com/blue-shop-towels-may-be-the-best-material-to-use-when-making-face-masks

Just made one of these:

https://youtu.be/edQAHCRTIVQ

albeit without the paper clip nose piece. Fairly comfortable

Have a 12-pack of blue shop towel rolls in the garage, so I'm "covered" for a while.

edit: ran out to Office Deport to buy paper clips and rubber bands. The paper clip makes the mask a little fiddly to make, but it does give a better seal, and keeps my glasses from trying to fog up.
I'm using #33 rubber bands and #1 paper clips, they seem to be the right size.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 04, 2020, 09:34:52 pm
I'm taking all the necessary precautions.  What works for you where you live may be entirely different from over here.  Have you spent 10 seconds wondering why people are wearing masks but now protective eye glasses since the virus can enter there?  Most people are wearing their masks wrong, some even adjust them while they are out.  I could go on and on and on.  If it will please you, I'll gladly wear a bandana next time I go to the market. 

There are small number of us who are trying to present up to date scientific information here; I don't see you doing this, only scolding people.
Now you know how Trump must feel.  :)
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 04, 2020, 09:36:47 pm
How Germany seems to be doing it better, because they learned from others' experiences and had good foresight: https://nyti.ms/2JEVPH6
Germany has almost as many deaths as America on a per capita basis.  We must be doing well too.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 04, 2020, 09:39:51 pm
The thing with masks is that they are not designed to protect the wearer. A doctor wears a mask to protect the vulnerable patient from infection. If the patient is known to be highly infectious then they wear a lot more, like full covering.

Asians quite often wear masks to not infect others. It is part of their culture, so it is not uncommon to see them all wearing them all the time, especially now.

The mask actually is a collector of germs so it needs to be thrown out or washed each time. Touching the mask to remove it exposes you and you should wash your hands immediately.

In Australia we are being told not to wear masks as they need them for medical people. A few are complaining but all of the experts are saying not to wear them.
So now in America, the word is out that we should wear masks.  That fact is we're all just fumbling around like the blind leading the halt.  There's no way to know exactly what you have to do until it's past the point when you probably should have  already acted.  Isn't that always true about history? 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 04, 2020, 09:50:37 pm
Yes, the medical and surgical masks should be reserved for medical staff. However, wearing simple homemade masks or bandanas won't jeopardize the wearers or other bystanders.
I just got a simple mask sewn by a friend, and I know of many other people making masks for themselves and their family. There are plenty of youtube videos how to make simple masks even without sewing.
Simple mask were available on Amazon.  I just received in 50 of them.  Why didn't you order some before? Were you listening to Trump. :)
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 04, 2020, 10:06:54 pm
This was a serious thread with useful information for a while.

Alan, place those sophomoric pictures on the other thread please.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 04, 2020, 10:09:40 pm
This was a serious thread with useful information for a while.

Alan, place those sophomoric pictures on the other thread please.

I don't think he can control himself, as it was said before, it's a reflex now.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 04, 2020, 10:10:26 pm
Germany has almost as many deaths as America on a per capita basis.  We must be doing well too.

Can you for once actually read the article?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 04, 2020, 10:26:41 pm
Simple mask were available on Amazon.  I just received in 50 of them.  Why didn't you order some before? Were you listening to Trump. :)

Thanks for the tip, Alan
At this time, I have two well made, heavy-duty face masks made by a friend. Also, I have several scarves, and some old garments from which I could make bandanas and simple masks.
But the main thing is that I don't venture out much, and when I do, I try to keep a safe distance from others. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 05, 2020, 12:01:01 am
Alan, you can delete your post, using the Remove function. And then I'll delete this one by me.
I removed both pictures.  I'm sorry for offending you and everyone else.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 05, 2020, 12:03:08 am
Given that store-bought masks are going to be unobtanium for a while, I did a little research on DIY masks. Turns out blue shop towel is a good material.

https://totallythebomb.com/blue-shop-towels-may-be-the-best-material-to-use-when-making-face-masks

Just made one of these:

https://youtu.be/edQAHCRTIVQ

albeit without the paper clip nose piece. Fairly comfortable

Have a 12-pack of blue shop towel rolls in the garage, so I'm "covered" for a while.

edit: ran out to Office Deport to buy paper clips and rubber bands. The paper clip makes the mask a little fiddly to make, but it does give a better seal, and keeps my glasses from trying to fog up.
I'm using #33 rubber bands and #1 paper clips, they seem to be the right size.

Good stuff, looks like I found another hobby  :D
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 05, 2020, 12:05:55 am
I wonder if Trump will give us money for decreasing home prices.  Here we go again.

A $1.3 Trillion U.S. Housing Market Crash Is Imminent, and Inevitable
https://www.ccn.com/a-1-3-trillion-u-s-housing-market-crash-is-imminent-and-inevitable/
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 05, 2020, 12:08:23 am
Gasoline prices will remain low offsetting the drop in your home values.  What a mess.

Oil set to ‘crater’ Monday as OPEC meeting delayed, tensions flare between Saudi Arabia and Russia
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/04/oil-set-to-crater-monday-as-opec-meeting-delayed-tensions-flare-between-saudi-arabia-and-russia.html
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Chris Kern on April 05, 2020, 12:27:22 am
This was a serious thread with useful information for a while.

Strongly seconded.  There’s another COVID-19 thread for political arguments, economic pontification, and other personal opinions.  Let’s reserve this one for discussion of the virus and the medical response to it — hopefully supported by factual information.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: kamma1 on April 05, 2020, 01:47:48 am
As an update on the mask question, as of this morning we in Lombardy are now required to wear a mask whenever we leave home.  Good news, I'm tired of having to take even more precautions because of other people's irresponsibility.  (Though I still can't go for a walk in the woods because people treated it like a picnic opportunity....)
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Jonathan Cross on April 05, 2020, 03:55:56 am
On the past two Thursdays at 8pm people have stood outside their houses or at an open window and clapped for the National Health Service and the amazing selfless work they are doing to treat patients and reconfigure hospitals to cope with increasing demand.  To then hear of people going out because it is nice weather and getting too close seems selfish in the extreme.

Jonathan

Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Bart_van_der_Wolf on April 05, 2020, 04:07:22 am
[...]Let’s reserve this one for discussion of the virus and the medical response to it — hopefully supported by factual information.

+1
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 05, 2020, 04:39:34 am
... as of this morning we in Lombardy are now required to wear a mask whenever we leave home.  Good news ...

Kamma1, where (as in which region) of Lombardy are you ?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Jeremy Roussak on April 05, 2020, 04:57:02 am
I'm taking all the necessary precautions.  What works for you where you live may be entirely different from over here.  Have you spent 10 seconds wondering why people are wearing masks but now protective eye glasses since the virus can enter there?  Most people are wearing their masks wrong, some even adjust them while they are out.  I could go on and on and on.  If it will please you, I'll gladly wear a bandana next time I go to the market. 

There are small number of us who are trying to present up to date scientific information here; I don't see you doing this, only scolding people.

You are eliding three separate issues.

1. I am sure The Daily Goldhammer is read with fascination by many. I am not among them, but if preparing it gives you something to do and makes you feel useful, by all means persist. Others have different ways of self-justification.

2. Standard surgical masks worn for personal protection are probably almost totally ineffective. It's not what they were designed to do. Proper PPE is dramatically different.

3. Surgical masks worn in public to prevent spread by those infected to prevent spread are probably useful. It is wearing a mask for that purpose which you wilfully refuse to do; as you have observed, those around you are wearing them, so you are relatively safe and it plainly doesn't concern you that you may unwittingly pass on infection to others while you are asymptomatic.

It is the casual disregard for anyone save yourself, the unwillingness to take the trivial precaution adopted by those around you, that is reprehensible.

Jeremy
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Rob C on April 05, 2020, 05:30:04 am
I don't cough or sneeze when I go out.  When I go to the market, I am in and out in 10 minutes and always use the self-check out.  I also live in a suburban, low density, housing setting.  It's good to see that you have not lost your snarky sense of humor and have no comprehension of living and shopping environments here in the US.

1.  It's amazing to learn that you are the only individual on God's Earth who has total control of where, when and why he sneezes or coughs.

2.  Many of us live in low-density housing area. I live in a holiday resort. It's empty of tourists every winter, and by the manner in which the Spanish resident behave today, it appears totally empty of Spaniards too, except for those who toil daily in the food supply chain. Perhaps that's a stay-home enthusiasm brought about by the horrendous death totals, which concentrate the mind wonderfully. Is it going to take proportionate deaths for the US to learn the obvious lessons too?

3.  I'm surprised to learn, also, that you believe we don't have shopping malls, supermarkets, out-of-town hypermarkets etc. in the UK and the rest of Europe, and that your shopping options are so different to ours.

4. Not humour: admonishement for crass public behaviour in a time of an international life/death crisis.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on April 05, 2020, 05:30:27 am
+1

+1,000,000

There is enough "other discussions" in the other thread, let's not bring it to this one.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on April 05, 2020, 05:35:48 am
Here in Portugal it seems that the daily growth rate has decreased, and it's keeping at 9%. 3 weeks after closing schools, we are seeing the effect. Children have a stronger immune system, and they can infect other people without knowing. In Italy, seems that closing the schools and sending kids to stay with their grand parents was a disaster.

Here, the state of ermergency was prolonged for 2 more weeks. There is now talk of developing a blood test to see who is immune - they will be the first ones to go back to work, or back to school. Priority is to medical personnel, to avoid having say 50 people in isolation, and say 25 of them unnecessarily.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on April 05, 2020, 05:37:33 am
I am working from home, and I envy my cat:) Just a picture to lighten the mood.

Stay safe everyone.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Bart_van_der_Wolf on April 05, 2020, 05:45:03 am
2. Standard surgical masks worn for personal protection are probably almost totally ineffective. It's not what they were designed to do. Proper PPE is dramatically different.

Different yes, but only effective when used properly.  And the effectiveness of surgical masks can be easily improved with a minor modification. But then they would need to be made available to the general public first. While in short supply, they should remain to be reserved for healtcare professionals.

Quote
3. Surgical masks worn in public to prevent spread by those infected to prevent spread are probably useful. It is wearing a mask for that purpose which you willfully refuse to do; as you have observed, those around you are wearing them, so you are relatively safe and it plainly doesn't concern you that you may unwittingly pass on infection to others while you are asymptomatic.

Assuming that the recommended guidelines are followed, i.e. stay at home if symptomatic and keep distance when meeting other people (who could be pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic, or plainly contagious) and wash hands regularly and don't touch your face, a mask, any mask will have very limited effect. In fact, it can make matters worse, because it can become a source of infection. Don't touch your mask, and wash hands/face when you do.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Bart_van_der_Wolf on April 05, 2020, 05:56:24 am
Here in Portugal it seems that the daily growth rate has decreased, and it's keeping at 9%. 3 weeks after closing schools, we are seeing the effect. Children have a stronger immune system, and they can infect other people without knowing. In Italy, seems that closing the schools and sending kids to stay with their grand parents was a disaster.

Here, the state of ermergency was prolonged for 2 more weeks. There is now talk of developing a blood test to see who is immune - they will be the first ones to go back to work, or back to school. Priority is to medical personnel, to avoid having say 50 people in isolation, and say 25 of them unnecessarily.

Good to hear. Similar things happening in the Netherlands. The curve is flattening, but we are dangerously close to maxing out the (already expanded by more than a factor of 2) ICU capacity. So the flattening of the curve is very welcome, and has been the main strategy from the onset.

Something that is often overlooked, or so it seems, is that only increasing the number of ventilators is not enough. Personnel to operate the equipment and treat the patients in the ICU is also limited, and it would take too long to train more. So re-distribution of the patient load is also very important. Locations that were approaching their limits have sent patients to other locations, and we have very good contacts with Germany who have a much larger reserve of ICUs.

Our state of emergency has been prolonged to end of April, but is being updated weekly (or sooner if necessary).
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 05, 2020, 05:58:07 am
Germany has almost as many deaths as America on a per capita basis.  We must be doing well too.

As of today, USA has 26 deaths per million, and Germany 17. There is a good chance that due to limited testing the USA infections are under reported.
When the testing in USA will ramp up, the absolute infection count will go up, and the relative death counts in both countries might look more similar.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Slobodan Blagojevic on April 05, 2020, 06:02:18 am
Pro & con:

https://www.ft.com/content/848c5b44-4d7a-11ea-95a0-43d18ec715f5?fbclid=IwAR2asrB66g5P56NAdz91ucpj57ygrJoroVYC8La4OlIwr1Sgr-3Q853NbJg

Switzerland halts rollout of 5G over health concerns

http://tapnewswire.com/2020/01/5g-rollout-postponed-in-slovenia/

Quote
SLOVENIA VOTES FOR LIFE, AT LEAST FOR NOW
Last Friday, while people in 250 cities were preparing for the first Global Day of Protest against 5G, Slovenia became the first country in the world to refuse 5G, at least temporarily, because of objections from scientists and the public. The Ministry of Public Administration had called a four-hour Public Consultation on Radiation Aspects in Ensuring the Operation of 5G Technologies.

https://www.bbc.com/news/52168096

Coronavirus: Scientists brand 5G claims 'complete rubbish'
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Bart_van_der_Wolf on April 05, 2020, 06:04:31 am
As of today, USA has 26 deaths per million, and Germany 17. There is a good chance that due to limited testing the USA infections are under reported.
When the testing in USA will ramp up, the absolute infection count will go up, and the relative death counts in both countries might look more similar.

Assuming that Germany doesn't increase testing ...

Germany told it needs to massively increase coronavirus testing
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/02/germany-told-it-needs-to-massively-increase-coronavirus-testing
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: elliot_n on April 05, 2020, 06:37:05 am
There seems to be a lot of hope that we will have a working vaccine for COVID-19 in the next 12/18 months. How so? After 40 years of research we still do not have a vaccine for AIDS. And no vaccine for SARS, MERS, EBOLA etc. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 05, 2020, 06:50:11 am
Assuming that Germany doesn't increase testing ...
Germany told it needs to massively increase coronavirus testing
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/02/germany-told-it-needs-to-massively-increase-coronavirus-testing

Where does that leave Britain ... :)

Quote
on a lighter note, a humorous press analogy:
Whereas Britain is struggling to carry out 50,000 tests in a week, Germany sometimes does twice as many in a day.  Or to put it in footballing terms – and we are talking about Germany, after all – they can test an entire FA Cup final crowd in the same time it takes the NHS to swab a home crowd at Peterborough United. (5,000)

Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 05, 2020, 06:55:54 am
Coronavirus: Scientists brand 5G claims 'complete rubbish'
https://www.bbc.com/news/52168096

This one, slightly more than amusing :

One claims 5G can suppress the immune system, thus making people more susceptible to catching the virus.
The other suggests the virus can somehow be transmitted through the use of 5G technology.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Bart_van_der_Wolf on April 05, 2020, 07:02:53 am
This one, slightly more than amusing :

One claims 5G can suppress the immune system, thus making people more susceptible to catching the virus.
The other suggests the virus can somehow be transmitted through the use of 5G technology.

Let's stay on topic, please. Conspiracy theories about 5G should go to another thread.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 05, 2020, 07:08:54 am
Let's stay on topic, please. Conspiracy theories about 5G should go to another thread.

Bart,
I didn't need to put in a silly smiling yellow face to highlight how ridiculous the notion is ... did I?
That is what 'slightly more than amusing' implies!
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Bart_van_der_Wolf on April 05, 2020, 07:12:46 am
Bart,
I didn't need to put in a silly smiling yellow face to highlight how ridiculous the notion is ... did I?
That is what 'slightly more than amusing' implies!

No problem with that, but some (other) people can't resist to derail threads, so let's not feed them unnecessarily.
I do agree that some tension relief is useful, but the other thread (with lots of dark 'comedy') just got locked, so we need to be cautious with this thread.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 05, 2020, 07:16:03 am
This is a layman's overview article about vaccine creation and production, a bit long but interesting, https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-vaccine-the-race-to-keep-millions-safe-from-covid-19-11968262 (https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-vaccine-the-race-to-keep-millions-safe-from-covid-19-11968262).

In a podcast about 4 weeks ago, Dr, Amesh Adalja (http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-people/adalja/ (http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/our-people/adalja/)) conjectured that it was more likely that immunity from C19 would resemble that of measles than of flu. That is, if you've had the disease, you are immune for a very long time, maybe for life, as we are with measles (with maybe a booster shot). I presume this is because the flu viruses (I assume there are more than one) mutate relatively rapidly but that this is not the case for C19. Does anyone know if that conjecture is true, even just plausible, or is it not possible to know yet?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: kamma1 on April 05, 2020, 07:17:52 am
Kamma1, where (as in which region) of Lombardy are you ?

Como.  I came back here from the UK 2 weeks ago.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 05, 2020, 07:19:22 am
... but the other thread (with lots of dark 'comedy') just got locked, so we need to be cautious with this thread.

Hmmm, just noticed that.
As the OP, I am, of course, more than in agreement!
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Slobodan Blagojevic on April 05, 2020, 07:20:58 am
Let's stay on topic, please. Conspiracy theories about 5G should go to another thread.

Don't be ridiculous, Bart! Did you you read the links? One theory is that 5G is linked to coronavirus, in the sense that it weakens immune system. At least two civilized states are looking into it (among other health concerns) and temporarily halting it. Also, remember the chart i posted pages ago which shows Switzerland as having the most registered cases per capita?

I am not saying the theory is true or not true. That is why I posted the opposing link at the same time. But it is worth noting that two civilized states are at least looking into it. There are so many things that the current state of science doesn't know for sure when it comes to coronavirus.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: kamma1 on April 05, 2020, 07:27:07 am


Assuming that the recommended guidelines are followed, i.e. stay at home if symptomatic and keep distance when meeting other people (who could be pre-symptomatic or asymptomatic, or plainly contagious)...

Yes, but it's not just other people who could be pre- or a-symptomatic, so could you. And you don't have to cough or sneeze to shed it.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 05, 2020, 07:33:11 am
As of today, USA has 26 deaths per million, and Germany 17. There is a good chance that due to limited testing the USA infections are under reported.
When the testing in USA will ramp up, the absolute infection count will go up, and the relative death counts in both countries might look more similar.
It's not clear to me how they decide who to test here in the US. They're  just starting voluntary testing tomorrow in our county in New Jersey at the Motor Vehicle Bureau.  If they work it like when you have to go there to take care of your car, we'll be standing on line for a week.  I wonder if they'll be passing out masks?

MIDDLESEX COUNTY TESTING SITE: Schedule your appointment with Middlesex County Office of Health Services on SUNDAY, APRIL 5 beginning at 10:00 a.m. to make an appointment time for MONDAY, APRIL 6. Location: NJ MVC Kilmer Vehicle Inspection Center in Edison.

Here are the statistics of testing in New Jersey.  It's meaningless without knowing who they're testing.  It seems that they've only tested patients.  The new local testing might be just people who want to be tested.  But even that won't be a random test.  If it's people suspected of having the disease, than it won't show what the infection rate is in the general public.  I suspect we won't know the real rates until this whole thing is over. 

NJ TESTING BY-THE-NUMBERS: As of Saturday, April 4,2020 a total of 75,336 patients tested in NJ. Of today’s number 7,853, there were 4,229 positives and 3,624 negatives.  The overall test positivity: 45% and new test positivity is 54%.  This positivity rate is still way too high.


How do they test in other countries?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 05, 2020, 07:49:01 am
A task force to plan economic recovery in the US after this is over has been recommended.  Here is an extract from the article. What are other countries doing to address this issue?  America is throwing huge amounts of money at the problem?  But there's no specific plan.  There should be.  How are business owners doing here?

"....according to a recent poll 24 percent of small business owners who have seen their shops closed by the nearly nationwide shutdown expect they will never be able to reopen for business.

What is required and what has been sorely lacking is an effort to balance the medical and economic impact of this crisis. In far too many cases those who even attempt to address the immediate and potentially generational harmful impact this crisis could have on American workers and businesses have been portrayed as heartless ghouls who only care about the stock market, not human lives. But this is not the case.

In fact, the myriad potential for disastrous effects that a second great depression could have on our nation are an emergency in their own right which requires just as much attention as the pandemic itself. Entire communities are poised to be plunged into a nightmare of joblessness, empty storefronts, addiction and even suicide if we do not find a way to get America back working soon..."

https://thefederalist.com/2020/04/04/we-need-a-white-house-task-force-on-reopening-the-economy/
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 05, 2020, 07:52:55 am
NJ TESTING BY-THE-NUMBERS: As of Saturday, April 4,2020 a total of 75,336 patients tested in NJ. Of today’s number 7,853, there were 4,229 positives and 3,624 negatives.  The overall test positivity: 45% and new test positivity is 54%.  This positivity rate is still way too high.

How do they test in other countries?

If they test primarily suspected C19 carriers, it is not surprising that the positivity rate is high. When they extend the testing to general population or random samples, the positivity rate should drop.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 05, 2020, 07:57:23 am
Assuming that Germany doesn't increase testing ...

Germany told it needs to massively increase coronavirus testing
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/02/germany-told-it-needs-to-massively-increase-coronavirus-testing
The whole testing procedure is pretty much useless because it's not random.  Without it, there's minimal way to tell the infection rate of the general public.  Why isn't random testing going on?

From your linked article:

"...Kotsopoulos said Germany should be far more focused on who it tested, to ensure those “who don’t have symptoms but just want to know whether they have it or not” are not tested, in favour of those such as at-risk patients for whom it is considered a necessity. “It is simply not practically possible right now to test everyone in a population of our size,” he said.

According to the RKI’s guideline, priority should be given to testing medical workers, people with underlying health conditions showing coronavirus symptoms and those in contact with those who are infected, so as to be able to place them under quarantine..."
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Bart_van_der_Wolf on April 05, 2020, 08:01:50 am
Yes, but it's not just other people who could be pre- or a-symptomatic, so could you. And you don't have to cough or sneeze to shed it.

Correct, so I'm following the new directive for your region with interest. But while I hope it helps to improve things, I'm a bit sceptical unless some better research becomes available to prove me wrong.

Do the authorities in your region make these masks available for the general public?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 05, 2020, 08:03:44 am
Let's stay on topic, please. Conspiracy theories about 5G should go to another thread.
Bart, Some foxhole humor in trying times is important.  It helps lighten the load.  In reminds us all we're not in charge. In any case, we're not scientists and this isn;t a scientific discourse at Harvard.  We're all just a bunch of photographers dumping our thoughts, opinions and feelings.  Lighten up. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 05, 2020, 08:04:32 am
The whole testing procedure is pretty much useless because it's not random.  Without it, there's minimal way to tell the infection rate of the general public.  Why isn't random testing going on?

It has been stated many times that the tests are not available yet in large numbers so they probably can't do so at this time. Not in all countries yet anyway.

Presumably hospitals test so they know what to do with patients. The kind of random widespread testing you're referring to has a different purpose and will be done elsewhere than in hospitals, is my understanding.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 05, 2020, 08:05:45 am
Don't be ridiculous, Bart! Did you you read the links? One theory is that 5G is linked to coronavirus, in the sense that it weakens immune system. At least two civilized states are looking into it (among other health concerns) and temporarily halting it. Also, remember the chart i posted pages ago which shows Switzerland as having the most registered cases per capita?

I am not saying the theory is true or not true. That is why I posted the opposing link at the same time. But it is worth noting that two civilized states are at least looking into it. There are so many things that the current state of science doesn't know for sure when it comes to coronavirus.

It could be an indirect effect of using phones. It is likely, that the 5G users are more prolific in using their phones for many hours during the day and night, and thus get less sleep and more stimulation through the screen. With less sleep, the immune system is compromised. 

Quote
Reducing Sleep
Many of these activities may prompt a compulsive desire to continue refreshing, checking, responding, reading, scrolling, posting, clicking, or playing. It feels good and there is a limitless opportunity for additional stimulation. It may be tough to stop and put the device away. This alone may lead to a delay in bedtime and reduced total sleep time. This may contribute to sleep deprivation if the needed hours of sleep to feel rested are not obtained.1 The stimulation may make it hard to shut down and fall asleep. The mind may be overly excited or activated.

Light
In addition, the light from phone, tablet, or computer screens may impact the ability to fall asleep.1 Small amounts of artificial light from the screens may cause a delay in the circadian rhythm. This may be especially impactful on night owls with a naturally delayed sleep phase. If morning sunlight is not obtained to counteract these effects, insomnia and morning sleepiness may result.

https://www.verywellhealth.com/reasons-why-you-should-not-sleep-with-your-cell-phone-4140997
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 05, 2020, 08:07:57 am
Bart, Some foxhole humor in trying times is important.  It helps lighten the load.  In reminds us all we're not in charge. In any case, we're not scientists and this isn;t a scientific discourse at Harvard.  We're all just a bunch of photographers dumping our thoughts, opinions and feelings.  Lighten up.

I agree with the sentiment, but there is a humour thread and you can always start another thread about the lighter side or how people are coping. If this thread begins to have pages of back and forth, no matter how benign or entertaining, it will make it difficult to find the more informative bits or questions. I'm with Bart on this one.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 05, 2020, 08:13:00 am
If they test primarily suspected C19 carriers, it is not surprising that the positivity rate is high. When they extend the testing to general population or random samples, the positivity rate should drop.

Exactly.  So all the arguments of who's doing worse or better, especially when the numbers are close, have no meaning at this point.  Everyone seems to be testing differently and at different test rates.  Most testing is of patient or suspected patients. Nobody's knocked on my door to test me. Japan's basically stopped testing.  Who really knows what China is doing? So there's no relationship among the various results.  Arguing one country is doing better than the other is silly.   It's like discussing which fighter has the most points in the 5th round of a 12 round fight.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 05, 2020, 08:31:24 am
It has been stated many times that the tests are not available yet in large numbers so they probably can't do so at this time. Not in all countries yet anyway.

Presumably hospitals test so they know what to do with patients. The kind of random widespread testing you're referring to has a different purpose and will be done elsewhere than in hospitals, is my understanding.
But officials aren't making that clear.  They keep talking about infection (and death) rates as if they're testing the general public. They're not. They're testing suspected infectees. So the statistics may be raising more fear than the real infection rate would cause. 

If after this is all over, we're told that the real infection rate was a fraction of what they told us, there's going to be a lot of angry people and hell to pay.  Did we shut down the economies of the world based on distorted statistics? Why didn't the powers to be tell us what the figures really meant?  Why didn't they test differently?  Did I lose my job unnecessarily and can't feed my family because of it.  Heads will swing.

I'm not saying these deaths are not terrible.  They are.  But the impression is it's a lot worse than it may turn out to be could cause us to make policy decisions that are wrong.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Bart_van_der_Wolf on April 05, 2020, 08:34:15 am
A task force to plan economic recovery in the US after this is over has been recommended.  Here is an extract from the article. What are other countries doing to address this issue?  America is throwing huge amounts of money at the problem?  But there's no specific plan.  There should be.  How are business owners doing here?

"....according to a recent poll 24 percent of small business owners who have seen their shops closed by the nearly nationwide shutdown expect they will never be able to reopen for business.

What is required and what has been sorely lacking is an effort to balance the medical and economic impact of this crisis. In far too many cases those who even attempt to address the immediate and potentially generational harmful impact this crisis could have on American workers and businesses have been portrayed as heartless ghouls who only care about the stock market, not human lives. But this is not the case.

In fact, the myriad potential for disastrous effects that a second great depression could have on our nation are an emergency in their own right which requires just as much attention as the pandemic itself. Entire communities are poised to be plunged into a nightmare of joblessness, empty storefronts, addiction and even suicide if we do not find a way to get America back working soon..."

https://thefederalist.com/2020/04/04/we-need-a-white-house-task-force-on-reopening-the-economy/

Alan, this will get political pretty fast. Not something for this thread.

Each country will take the measures that are supposed to benefit the economy of that specific country. Different countries, different ways to optimize. What works for one, doesn't have to work for others. And some governments are more clever, or better prepared for financial/economical setbacks than others.

In general, it seems like a good idea to ramp up serum testing, i.e. determining the presence and amount of antibodies. Those who are (probably) immune to the virus, and are (probably) not contagious anymore, are the first to get back to work on the economy.

But there are still a number of issues with that.
1. The peak has not been reached yet, in almost any country.
2. With limited serum test capacity, healthcare workers need to get priority.
3. Once 1 and 2 are solved, there is still a risk of secondary contamination (touching contaminated surfaces and spreading it to new patients).
4. It is likely, but not yet proven, that people with anti-bodies are unable to get reinfected (and again contagious). The amount of antibodies may also play a role.
5. This is a new virus, so a lot is not yet fully understood, and we're learning as we go.

A daily newsflash was just issued in my country, 115 more dead people have been reported yesterday, but that's fewer than the day before. So the curve is flattening. But in the heaviest hit region, there was a sudden increase. So it is still a tricky situation that could grow worse if our attention weakens and people start breaking protocol too fast.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 05, 2020, 08:35:46 am
 
It could be an indirect effect of using phones. It is likely, that the 5G users are more prolific in using their phones for many hours during the day and night, and thus get less sleep and more stimulation through the screen. With less sleep, the immune system is compromised. 

https://www.verywellhealth.com/reasons-why-you-should-not-sleep-with-your-cell-phone-4140997
It's not 5G that's causing it.  Rather it's photography forums keeping us up at night and weakening our immune systems.  ::)
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 05, 2020, 08:38:31 am
I agree with the sentiment, but there is a humour thread and you can always start another thread about the lighter side or how people are coping. If this thread begins to have pages of back and forth, no matter how benign or entertaining, it will make it difficult to find the more informative bits or questions. I'm with Bart on this one.
I enjoy wry humor so I will keep doing it.  Being able to laugh at oneself makes us human. In any case, some people like Canons and others like Nikons. Nothing personal. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 05, 2020, 08:44:41 am
Alan, this will get political pretty fast. Not something for this thread.

Each country will take the measures that are supposed to benefit the economy of that specific country. Different countries, different ways to optimize. What works for one, doesn't have to work for others. And some governments are more clever, or better prepared for financial/economical setbacks than others.

In general, it seems like a good idea to ramp up serum testing, i.e. determining the presence and amount of antibodies. Those who are (probably) immune to the virus, and are (probably) not contagious anymore, are the first to get back to work on the economy.

But there are still a number of issues with that.
1. The peak has not been reached yet, in almost any country.
2. With limited serum test capacity, healthcare workers need to get priority.
3. Once 1 and 2 are solved, there is still a risk of secondary contamination (touching contaminated surfaces and spreading it to new patients).
4. It is likely, but not yet proven, that people with anti-bodies are unable to get reinfected (and again contagious). The amount of antibodies may also play a role.
5. This is a new virus, so a lot is not yet fully understood, and we're learning as we go.

A daily newsflash was just issued in my country, 115 more dead people have been reported yesterday, but that's fewer than the day before. So the curve is flattening. But in the heaviest hit region, there was a sudden increase. So it is still a tricky situation that could grow worse if our attention weakens and people start breaking protocol too fast.
There you go trying to shut people up who you disagree with what they're saying.  Don't you ever stop? Then you go on to answer my points with a couple of hundred words of response.  Make up your mind. Either my point is worthy of discussion or it isn't.  If it isn;t then why respond with a treatise?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Bart_van_der_Wolf on April 05, 2020, 08:50:03 am
But officials aren't making that clear.  They keep talking about infection (and death) rates as if they're testing the general public.

Not in my country. They have been crystal clear and consistent in pointing out that different reporting streams are not in sync, and that increasing the numbers of tested people will change some outcomes in absolute ratios/numbers.

Scientists are, and have been totally transparent about that. Reproduction numbers were not available in the beginning, so all they had to go on was the Chinese input. As more information became available locally, the local numbers started to dominate the calculations, but always with the caveat that not everybody was being tested. However, there were also parallel systems of reporting available, and their results started to converge to the same numbers. Last week the Reproduction rate in my country was around 1.0 and the trend was going down. Mortalities lag by 2-5 weeks, because people first have to become ill, then some deteriorate and are hospitalized, and then some of those patients die.

This is all common knowledge, and as said, reporting is transparent (including the inaccuracies). Following the Scientific consensus benefits all, consistent information with few surprises, and a consistent approach going forward to manage the situation.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 05, 2020, 08:59:28 am
Not in my country. They have been crystal clear and consistent in pointing out that different reporting streams are not in sync, and that increasing the numbers of tested people will change some outcomes in absolute ratios/numbers.

Scientists are, and have been totally transparent about that. Reproduction numbers were not available in the beginning, so all they had to go on was the Chinese input. As more information became available locally, the local numbers started to dominate the calculations, but always with the caveat that not everybody was being tested. However, there were also parallel systems of reporting available, and their results started to converge to the same numbers. Last week the Reproduction rate in my country was around 1.0 and the trend was going down. Mortalities lag by 2-5 weeks, because people first have to become ill, then some deteriorate and are hospitalized, and then some of those patients die.

This is all common knowledge, and as said, reporting is transparent (including the inaccuracies). Following the Scientific consensus benefits all, consistent information with few surprises, and a consistent approach going forward to manage the situation.
Well, that's good that it's being clarified.  But if the final numbers show an infection rate a tenth of what's being published now, people won;t remember the qualifications the government gave. People will complain the government was feeding us bad information that made us react too strongly causing us to destroy our economy.  So that's why am I out of a job.  Because of government incompetence and lying.

This reminds me of the snow forecasts we get in the US all the time.  Weathermen threaten huge amounts of snow too often never happens.  I love it because no one is driving so I go out to drive in two inches of snow when there were suppose to be 12 inches.  Same things with hurricanes and other disasters.  Often, it seems that government has become too cautious.  It may be an unfair assessment. But it's there.  I suspect there's going to be a lot of recrimination about the economy when this is over.  There's going to be hell to pay because of it. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 05, 2020, 09:07:12 am
Let me add that in addition to bad statistics, many people have been saying that we should shut everything down; damn the economy.  After the dead are buried, no one will remember them except their families.  The rest of the people will be worried about their next meal.  Memories are short.  Those who demanded the shutdown are going to be blamed for a sinking economy.  Leaders who wanted to go slow, are going to seem like the smart ones.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on April 05, 2020, 09:30:41 am
There seems to be a lot of hope that we will have a working vaccine for COVID-19 in the next 12/18 months. How so? After 40 years of research we still do not have a vaccine for AIDS. And no vaccine for SARS, MERS, EBOLA etc.
Vaccine research is difficult and 'if' a vaccine is to be given to large numbers of people who are otherwise healthy, safety studies require a large clinical trial.  It is not uncommon for new vaccines to be tested on more than 50,000 people to gauge if it is safe or not.  The correct proteins must be chosen for the vaccine to make sure the body produces the right antibodies to the infectious agent.  Some retroviruses such as HIV have proven to be recalcitrant to vaccine development.  Since control of HIV is well known and "easy" to implement (practice safe sex), on 'might' question whether all the money and effort was well spent.  There were vaccines developed for SARS but not pursued since it quickly disappeared.  there are approved Ebola vaccines but their full efficacy is not known as outbreaks are sporadic.  A number of vaccines were developed against Zika virus once that outbreak was documented.  IMO, more should have been done to pre-test some new vaccine platform technologies so that we would not be doing first in human studies against SARS-CoV-2 right now as is being done.

Johnson & Johnson will be starting a large trial shortly of their vaccine and are building up manufacturing capacity to produce 1 billion doses a year.  Other companies are stepping up to the plate as is the Gates Foundation.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on April 05, 2020, 09:35:58 am
Don't be ridiculous, Bart! Did you you read the links? One theory is that 5G is linked to coronavirus, in the sense that it weakens immune system. At least two civilized states are looking into it (among other health concerns) and temporarily halting it. Also, remember the chart i posted pages ago which shows Switzerland as having the most registered cases per capita?

I am not saying the theory is true or not true. That is why I posted the opposing link at the same time. But it is worth noting that two civilized states are at least looking into it. There are so many things that the current state of science doesn't know for sure when it comes to coronavirus.
Let's debunk this once and for all.  The advent of cell phones brought about a lot of conjecture about low energy radiation and it's impact on humans.  All kinds of concerns were raised.  However, when one looked at the data, there was no evidence at all for adverse health effects.  The proximity of cell phones to one's brain, raised the weird concern about possible brain cancer.  However, when one looked at the actual mortality data, there was a small decrease in brain cancer mortality and an enormous increase in cell phone usage. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 05, 2020, 09:48:10 am
Vaccine research is difficult and 'if' a vaccine is to be given to large numbers of people who are otherwise healthy, safety studies require a large clinical trial.  It is not uncommon for new vaccines to be tested on more than 50,000 people to gauge if it is safe or not.  The correct proteins must be chosen for the vaccine to make sure the body produces the right antibodies to the infectious agent.  Some retroviruses such as HIV have proven to be recalcitrant to vaccine development.  Since control of HIV is well known and "easy" to implement (practice safe sex), on 'might' question whether all the money and effort was well spent.  There were vaccines developed for SARS but not pursued since it quickly disappeared.  there are approved Ebola vaccines but their full efficacy is not known as outbreaks are sporadic.  A number of vaccines were developed against Zika virus once that outbreak was documented.  IMO, more should have been done to pre-test some new vaccine platform technologies so that we would not be doing first in human studies against SARS-CoV-2 right now as is being done.

Johnson & Johnson will be starting a large trial shortly of their vaccine and are building up manufacturing capacity to produce 1 billion doses a year.  Other companies are stepping up to the plate as is the Gates Foundation.
Is the coronavirus similar to these?  Do they expect the coronavirus to mutate annually causing additional problems next year like recurrent seasonal flu?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 05, 2020, 09:52:37 am
Let's debunk this once and for all.  The advent of cell phones brought about a lot of conjecture about low energy radiation and it's impact on humans.  All kinds of concerns were raised.  However, when one looked at the data, there was no evidence at all for adverse health effects.  The proximity of cell phones to one's brain, raised the weird concern about possible brain cancer.  However, when one looked at the actual mortality data, there was a small decrease in brain cancer mortality and an enormous increase in cell phone usage. 
It may not hurt my brain.  But every time I put it within a foot of my desktop keyboard, I get static on the computer's speakers.  It would be nice instead of the noise I hear, it would say something meaningful.  Like, Buy Apple, or Sell Exxon.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on April 05, 2020, 10:07:21 am
The whole testing procedure is pretty much useless because it's not random.  Without it, there's minimal way to tell the infection rate of the general public.  Why isn't random testing going on?
There are not enough genetic tests.  Abbott Labs got approval recently for their quick ID test that runs on a small analyzer.  However, they have only shipped 5500 cassettes as of the end of last week and are projecting 50,000 kits per week being shipped.  there are 18,000 analyzers deployed in the US (this is commonly used for strep tests and other quick diagnostic stuff).  You can do the math and see how few kits there are for each analyzer.  Abbott are one of the biggest diagnostic test companies in the world.  The absence of a large scale deployable blood test is also a problem.  there are over 50 such tests developed overseas that have been registered with the FDA.  These are self-validated by the company and not by the FDA.  Only one test has been reviewed and given emergency approval by the FDA.  The type of research needed to validate these tests so that they are accurate is not hard once the right reagents are available.  Labs in the US and The Netherlands have already outlined approaches (there may be more but those are the two papers I've read).  This is the type of project that needs to be undertaken ASAP so that tests can be manufactured at scale and deployed.  The US policy folks are again letting us down.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on April 05, 2020, 10:11:01 am
Is the coronavirus similar to these?  Do they expect the coronavirus to mutate annually causing additional problems next year like recurrent seasonal flu?
Every virus and bacteria disease require its own vaccine.  Right now there is no evidence of mutation in the major surface proteins of the virus have mutated so a vaccine should work.  Seasonal flu vaccines mutate because it can be hosted in animals other than humans which is conducive to genetic changes.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Bart_van_der_Wolf on April 05, 2020, 10:14:14 am
Is the coronavirus similar to these?  Do they expect the coronavirus to mutate annually causing additional problems next year like recurrent seasonal flu?

In all likelihood, yes similar, and yes it mutates (but there is no experience yet how much).

But when a large portion of the population has developed antibodies (group immunization), there will be fewer infections and those who do get infected will probably be hit less hard. A vaccine will probably not become available in adequate quantities in time. Johnson & Johnson are close to having a vaccine in January 2021 (but there's a 90% chance they may fail, there are no tests done on humans yet), two months after the vaccinations for the regular flu season.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 05, 2020, 10:28:12 am
I enjoy wry humor so I will keep doing it.

Not in this thread.

13 posts in 2 hours, coming hard on your >100 posts in 24 hours in the now, thankfully, closed thread. This is a forum not a chat room. You wanna chat ? go on Facebook or Messenger. Don't swamp the content, particularly as you habitually ignore the subject under discussion and wander off on your own myopic agenda.

Engage constructively and all will be well.
You wanna do your Trumpette bit ? open another thread, pretty please.

Edit:
... there is a humour thread and you can always start another thread about the lighter side or how people are coping. If this thread begins to have pages of back and forth, no matter how benign or entertaining, it will make it difficult to find the more informative bits or questions.

This ^^ 10 times over.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on April 05, 2020, 10:31:07 am
In all likelihood, yes similar, and yes it mutates (but there is no experience yet how much).

But when a large portion of the population has developed antibodies (group immunization), there will be fewer infections and those who do get infected will probably be hit less hard. A vaccine will probably not become available in adequate quantities in time. Johnson & Johnson are close to having a vaccine in January 2021 (but there's a 90% chance they may fail, there are no tests done on humans yet), two months after the vaccinations for the regular flu season.
I think this is too pessimistic.  Unlike HIV, these types of viral infections are susceptible to a vaccine approach.  There is a UK group that is looking at a similar approach and they developed a MERS vaccine several years ago that elicited a strong immune response.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Bart_van_der_Wolf on April 05, 2020, 10:40:13 am
I think this is too pessimistic.  Unlike HIV, these types of viral infections are susceptible to a vaccine approach.  There is a UK group that is looking at a similar approach and they developed a MERS vaccine several years ago that elicited a strong immune response.

I was quoting what the Dutch lead scientist at J&J was telling in the interview I mentioned here (https://forum.luminous-landscape.com/index.php?topic=134416.msg1161200#msg1161200). She explained that they have developed a special method of modifying a 'regular' flu virus in small amounts, which leads to finding good candidates. But as she said, 10% of the attempts leads to further testing, 90% fails. And then there is the issue of human testing. Vaccination involves introducing antibodies in healthy people. It takes a lot of testing to make sure that these people do not develop issues that they would otherwise have not.

But hey, we only need 1 successful basic vaccine.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 05, 2020, 10:52:25 am
As of today, USA has 26 deaths per million, and Germany 17. There is a good chance that due to limited testing the USA infections are under reported.
When the testing in USA will ramp up, the absolute infection count will go up, and the relative death counts in both countries might look more similar.

First, I don’t think this is the best way to look at the data. Maybe one country got hit with a lot more initial exposure than the other. Based on the article posted Germany is testing a lot for quite a while, they had a working test even before Italy got hit. US is likely behind Germany, we have yet to see the worse. I mean the east side of Michigan is swamped, we have yet to get hit anywhere close to them on the west side.

Second, and this is what caught my interest, their ICU mortality looked better than others. If you are on a vent in the ICU, the reported mortality is somewhere in 50-80% range, quite bad.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Martin Kristiansen on April 05, 2020, 11:06:47 am
I was quoting what the Dutch lead scientist at J&J was telling in the interview I mentioned here (https://forum.luminous-landscape.com/index.php?topic=134416.msg1161200#msg1161200). She explained that they have developed a special method of modifying a 'regular' flu virus in small amounts, which leads to finding good candidates. But as she said, 10% of the attempts leads to further testing, 90% fails. And then there is the issue of human testing. Vaccination involves introducing antibodies in healthy people. It takes a lot of testing to make sure that these people do not develop issues that they would otherwise have not.

But hey, we only need 1 successful basic vaccine.

I watched a YouTube video of an interview with the Dr leading the Covid response in South Korea. One of the final questions was how long until everyone gets a vaccine for Covid 19. I was expected no him to say about 18 months instead he said based on how long it took roll out a vaccine for smallpox and eradicate that disease we should get it done by 2035. I was stunned.

Other thing he said was everyone should wear a mask. He said the evidence was clear, everyone at all times. The interview left me quite miserable to be honest.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Bart_van_der_Wolf on April 05, 2020, 11:35:21 am
I watched a YouTube video of an interview with the Dr leading the Covid response in South Korea. One of the final questions was how long until everyone gets a vaccine for Covid 19. I was expected no him to say about 18 months instead he said based on how long it took roll out a vaccine for smallpox and eradicate that disease we should get it done by 2035. I was stunned.

Other thing he said was everyone should wear a mask. He said the evidence was clear, everyone at all times. The interview left me quite miserable to be honest.

That seems overly cautious. There may be some information that got lost in translation, also regarding the wearing of masks. They almost always use masks, so they don't have as much experience with social distancing without. Just guessing. Things may differ in different contexts.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 05, 2020, 11:35:39 am
There are not enough genetic tests.  Abbott Labs got approval recently for their quick ID test that runs on a small analyzer.  However, they have only shipped 5500 cassettes as of the end of last week and are projecting 50,000 kits per week being shipped.  there are 18,000 analyzers deployed in the US (this is commonly used for strep tests and other quick diagnostic stuff).  You can do the math and see how few kits there are for each analyzer.  Abbott are one of the biggest diagnostic test companies in the world.  The absence of a large scale deployable blood test is also a problem. there are over 50 such tests developed overseas that have been registered with the FDA. These are self-validated by the company and not by the FDA.  Only one test has been reviewed and given emergency approval by the FDA.  The type of research needed to validate these tests so that they are accurate is not hard once the right reagents are available.  Labs in the US and The Netherlands have already outlined approaches (there may be more but those are the two papers I've read).  This is the type of project that needs to be undertaken ASAP so that tests can be manufactured at scale and deployed.  The US policy folks are again letting us down.
So it's the FDA folks that are letting us down.  Why?  With 50 tests registered, why have they only approved one recently because of the virus?  What have they been doing for the last decade?  Please don't blame Trump.  It seems the FDA procedures may be too stringent or non-existent considering they approved none of the 50 registered tests but one, and only did that as an emergency because of the virus.  Why are they dragging their heels?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 05, 2020, 11:36:36 am
Every virus and bacteria disease require its own vaccine.  Right now there is no evidence of mutation in the major surface proteins of the virus have mutated so a vaccine should work.  Seasonal flu vaccines mutate because it can be hosted in animals other than humans which is conducive to genetic changes.
So the Asian flu comes from animals like the Corid-19 virus?  Which animals?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Rob C on April 05, 2020, 11:38:12 am
No problem with that, but some (other) people can't resist to derail threads, so let's not feed them unnecessarily.
I do agree that some tension relief is useful, but the other thread (with lots of dark 'comedy') just got locked, so we need to be cautious with this thread.


No, I believe it got locked because it disintegrated into mindless superhero grandstanding and equally frustrating circular arguments from people unable to retain anything in their heads for even two posts in a row.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 05, 2020, 11:38:53 am
In all likelihood, yes similar, and yes it mutates (but there is no experience yet how much).

But when a large portion of the population has developed antibodies (group immunization), there will be fewer infections and those who do get infected will probably be hit less hard. A vaccine will probably not become available in adequate quantities in time. Johnson & Johnson are close to having a vaccine in January 2021 (but there's a 90% chance they may fail, there are no tests done on humans yet), two months after the vaccinations for the regular flu season.
So you and Alan G disagree on whether it mutates.  Do the experts disagree too?  Should us laymen trust anything anyone tells us? 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 05, 2020, 11:41:45 am
Not in this thread.

13 posts in 2 hours, coming hard on your >100 posts in 24 hours in the now, thankfully, closed thread. This is a forum not a chat room. You wanna chat ? go on Facebook or Messenger. Don't swamp the content, particularly as you habitually ignore the subject under discussion and wander off on your own myopic agenda.

Engage constructively and all will be well.
You wanna do your Trumpette bit ? open another thread, pretty please.

Edit:
This ^^ 10 times over.
You don't have the authority to monitor my posts.  In any case, maybe you should get a sense of humor.  It would keep you healthier in this time of stress. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 05, 2020, 11:45:32 am
First, I don’t think this is the best way to look at the data. Maybe one country got hit with a lot more initial exposure than the other. Based on the article posted Germany is testing a lot for quite a while, they had a working test even before Italy got hit. US is likely behind Germany, we have yet to see the worse. I mean the east side of Michigan is swamped, we have yet to get hit anywhere close to them on the west side.

Second, and this is what caught my interest, their ICU mortality looked better than others. If you are on a vent in the ICU, the reported mortality is somewhere in 50-80% range, quite bad.
Without knowing when the patients were brought into the ICU, the figures don't necessarily mean anything.  Earlier admission to hospitals may save more lives.  People who wait too long to go to the hospital are in dire shape by that time and more likely to die.  You'd have to study how cases were handled to prove your theory. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 05, 2020, 11:50:49 am
So you and Alan G disagree on whether it mutates.  Do the experts disagree too?  Should us laymen trust anything anyone tells us?

Please stop this moronic baiting. Some viruses mutate quickly, some don't. The data is not in yet so no one really knows for sure right at this moment. How many times do people have to repeat this? Why do you keep asking the same questions?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 05, 2020, 11:50:56 am

No, I believe it got locked because it disintegrated into mindless superhero grandstanding and equally frustrating circular arguments from people unable to retain anything in their heads for even two posts in a row.
Frankly, it should have been allowed to go on. After all, one of the Trump threads went on for over 100 pages before it was shut down.  And that had even more vituperation, nonsense, grandstanding, and repetition.  :)
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 05, 2020, 11:52:41 am
So it's the FDA folks that are letting us down.  Why?  With 50 tests registered, why have they only approved one recently because of the virus?  What have they been doing for the last decade?  Please don't blame Trump.  It seems the FDA procedures may be too stringent or non-existent considering they approved none of the 50 registered tests but one, and only did that as an emergency because of the virus.  Why are they dragging their heels?

Why are you jumping to the conclusion that someone is letting you down? These are recent developments and the pipeline for verification may be full.

Are you deliberately trying to derail this thread too? What is your purpose?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 05, 2020, 11:54:58 am
You don't have the authority to monitor my posts.

I don't need ‘authority’ , I learnt to count past 100 at school.
You want to ignore polite requests not to destroy threads and persist in abject self-centredness, do it in your own thread.
I’m locking this thread for 24 hours , should give you time to cool your heels and be more considerate to others.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 06, 2020, 09:14:41 am
Good morning Manoli.  Hope you slept well?  I did.  Here's something unusual but related to the topic.
As if NYC doesn;t have enough problems:

TIGER tests positive for Covid-19 as 6 more big cats develop ‘dry cough’ at Bronx Zoo
https://www.rt.com/usa/485042-tiger-coronavirus-bronx-zoo/


Here's an interesting concept.  That the virus developed in a Amur Tiger, a species I believe is wild in China.  It spread to humans in China who aren't immune but not to dogs and other animals.  So naturally, when exposed to the disease, a healthy Amur tiger, the one in the zoo,  would likely get infected.  So what is similar about humans and Amur tigers?  This could help find an antidote to the disease. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Dale Villeponteaux on April 06, 2020, 09:29:32 am
So the Asian flu comes from animals like the Corid-19 virus?  Which animals?

For seasonal flu, mallards.

Regards,
Dale
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 06, 2020, 09:34:01 am
For seasonal flu, mallards.

Regards,
Dale
I forgot I asked that question of which animal the virus came from.  So now it seems, Covid-19 may have come from the tiger family, maybe the cat family.  What genetic components are similar between us and them? It could help isolate an antidote or serum to inoculate humans.   
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 06, 2020, 09:42:15 am
Without knowing when the patients were brought into the ICU, the figures don't necessarily mean anything.  Earlier admission to hospitals may save more lives.  People who wait too long to go to the hospital are in dire shape by that time and more likely to die.  You'd have to study how cases were handled to prove your theory.

For the last time, read the links provided. I know how the early admission vs late admission works, no need to explain this.

I forgot I asked that question of which animal the virus came from.  So now it seems, Covid-19 may have come from the tiger family, maybe the cat family.  What genetic components are similar between us and them? It could help isolate an antidote or serum to inoculate humans.   

No, it doesn't. Right now it only means it could be transmitted to felines.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on April 06, 2020, 09:49:51 am
It has been stated many times that the tests are not available yet in large numbers so they probably can't do so at this time. Not in all countries yet anyway.

Presumably hospitals test so they know what to do with patients. The kind of random widespread testing you're referring to has a different purpose and will be done elsewhere than in hospitals, is my understanding.

Indeed. Here in Portugal, and I suspect other countries, when we had H1N1 epidemics in 2009, only many months later were the final numbers known: about 160,000 infected, and about 150 dead.

Right now, at least in my country, it is not possible to implement massive testing - there are not enough resources to do so. The current bottleneck is the laboratory processing capability, that sits far below the number of daily samples sent in to them.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: faberryman on April 06, 2020, 09:50:39 am
I forgot I asked that question of which animal the virus came from.  So now it seems, Covid-19 may have come from the tiger family, maybe the cat family.  What genetic components are similar between us and them? It could help isolate an antidote or serum to inoculate humans.   
Alan, you need to stay focused on the relation of 5G to the coronavirus. Tigers are just a distraction.h
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on April 06, 2020, 09:59:27 am
But officials aren't making that clear.  They keep talking about infection (and death) rates as if they're testing the general public. They're not. They're testing suspected infectees. So the statistics may be raising more fear than the real infection rate would cause. 

If after this is all over, we're told that the real infection rate was a fraction of what they told us, there's going to be a lot of angry people and hell to pay.  Did we shut down the economies of the world based on distorted statistics? Why didn't the powers to be tell us what the figures really meant?  Why didn't they test differently?  Did I lose my job unnecessarily and can't feed my family because of it.  Heads will swing.

I'm not saying these deaths are not terrible.  They are.  But the impression is it's a lot worse than it may turn out to be could cause us to make policy decisions that are wrong.

You are correct that once a lot more of the population is testec, the death rate will be lower than now. That is expected, and well exemplified by previous epidemics and pandemics. However, the infection rate of SARS-COV-2 is already well established, 1 individual will infect between 2 and 3. This is double the seasonal flu.

And here in lies the issue: even if the mortality rate turns out to be lower than now (once more people get tested), it seems that it will be above the mortality rate of previous coronavirus infections, especially above 70 years old or so. Right now, in Portugal, average mortality rate is 2.6%, and above 70 is 9%. Even if these figures are reduced by halfonce alot more people are tested, they are still many times above the seasonal flu, for instance.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on April 06, 2020, 11:12:08 am
Still on current numbers for death rate, as of today:

1.In Spain, 10 out of 100 infected have died.

2. In Italy, 12 out of 100 infected have died.

3. In Germany, which is the 4th country in number of confirmed cases, death rate is at 1.5%.

The above numbers give a good range for death rates as per the sampled population today. Of course, when a larger portion of the population is sampled, death rate will go down - but even if in the end it goes down to 0.5% or 1%, that is still several orders of magnitude higher than seasonal flu.

Wordlwide, with roughly 1,000,000 cases and 80,000 deaths, detah rate is 8%. Clearly, the death rate of this thing will end up being higher than others.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 06, 2020, 11:57:26 am
Still on current numbers for death rate, as of today:

1.In Spain, 10 out of 100 infected have died.

2. In Italy, 12 out of 100 infected have died.

3. In Germany, which is the 4th country in number of confirmed cases, death rate is at 1.5%.

The above numbers give a good range for death rates as per the sampled population today. Of course, when a larger portion of the population is sampled, death rate will go down - but even if in the end it goes down to 0.5% or 1%, that is still several orders of magnitude higher than seasonal flu.

Wordlwide, with roughly 1,000,000 cases and 80,000 deaths, detah rate is 8%. Clearly, the death rate of this thing will end up being higher than others.
...and the point is?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 06, 2020, 12:40:18 pm
...and the point is?

Clearly stated in his last sentence.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 06, 2020, 12:44:11 pm
...and the point is?

That would be better if you stick to the other thread
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 06, 2020, 12:55:37 pm
I forgot I asked that question of which animal the virus came from.  So now it seems, Covid-19 may have come from the tiger family, maybe the cat family.  What genetic components are similar between us and them? It could help isolate an antidote or serum to inoculate humans.   

Can a tiger get infected by eating a sick man?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on April 06, 2020, 01:23:25 pm
Good morning Manoli.  Hope you slept well?  I did.  Here's something unusual but related to the topic.
As if NYC doesn;t have enough problems:

TIGER tests positive for Covid-19 as 6 more big cats develop ‘dry cough’ at Bronx Zoo
https://www.rt.com/usa/485042-tiger-coronavirus-bronx-zoo/


Here's an interesting concept.  That the virus developed in a Amur Tiger, a species I believe is wild in China.  It spread to humans in China who aren't immune but not to dogs and other animals.  So naturally, when exposed to the disease, a healthy Amur tiger, the one in the zoo,  would likely get infected.  So what is similar about humans and Amur tigers?  This could help find an antidote to the disease.
There is already a paper from China documenting SARS-CoV-2 virus in common cats.  It's not known what the relevance this is as cats can get infected by a variety of coronaviruses.  I have not seen any papers documenting cat to human transmission.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: faberryman on April 06, 2020, 01:39:02 pm
So you and Alan G disagree on whether it mutates.  Do the experts disagree too?  Should us laymen trust anything anyone tells us?
Of course you shouldn't trust anything the experts tell you. What do they know? This whole social distancing and masks thing is bollocks. For example, yesterday afternoon I rounded up our church youth group, and we all piled into vans to visit local nursing homes. You know residents in nursing homes are lonely and really look forward to having visitors. You should have seen their eyes light up when we walked in.

By the way, you mentioned earlier that you were diabetic. I sure hope you haven't fallen for that whole insulin thing. What a scam. That's just big pharma ripping you off. And you really didn't need that triple bypass. The doctor just had college tuition payments due for his two sons. Treating acid reflux as a heart attack is the oldest trick in the book.

The best thing you can do is ignore expert advice and go with your gut.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Slobodan Blagojevic on April 06, 2020, 02:56:50 pm
Hopefully our resident scientists won't accuse me of "derailing the thread," as it is related to 1. photography 2. Coronavirus (and other):
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 06, 2020, 03:25:10 pm
Clearly stated in his last sentence.
That's not a point.  It's a statement of fact.  Why is he telling this to us?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on April 06, 2020, 03:31:47 pm
That's not a point.  It's a statement of fact.  Why is he telling this to us?

Because you made this big statement about heads will swing if the rate at the end does not materialize as being theoried today. Paul gave you the stats of today which show magnitude higher rate than the common flu. Given that Covid spreads faster than the common flu and we have no vaccines...today our best bet is to isolate and distance ourselves.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 06, 2020, 03:49:18 pm
Hopefully our resident scientists won't accuse me of "derailing the thread," as it is related to 1. photography 2. Coronavirus (and other):

As far as I recall there have been silver ion paints on the market for a while.

Some data: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5470207/
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on April 06, 2020, 05:34:03 pm
Hopefully our resident scientists won't accuse me of "derailing the thread," as it is related to 1. photography 2. Coronavirus (and other):
Silver has long been used for its antimicrobial properties:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medical_uses_of_silver   It's used for water purification on the space station.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Chris Kern on April 06, 2020, 05:44:17 pm
Hopefully our resident scientists won't accuse me of "derailing the thread," as it is related to 1. photography 2. Coronavirus (and other):

I admittedly have no relevant expertise, but a quick web search turned up a report commissioned by the manufacturer (https://www.duraluxepanels.com/antimicrobial-test) which suggests that this stuff inhibits bacterial growth, not viruses.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Craig Lamson on April 06, 2020, 06:45:05 pm
I admittedly have no relevant expertise, but a quick web search turned up a report commissioned by the manufacturer (https://www.duraluxepanels.com/antimicrobial-test) which suggests that this stuff inhibits bacterial growth, not viruses.

Samsung used to put Silver Ion in their washing machines, like maybe 2006  or so.  Don't know if they stiil do.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 06, 2020, 08:41:20 pm
Because you made this big statement about heads will swing if the rate at the end does not materialize as being theoried today. Paul gave you the stats of today which show magnitude higher rate than the common flu. Given that Covid spreads faster than the common flu and we have no vaccines...today our best bet is to isolate and distance ourselves.
Higher rate doesn;t mean anything.  There were 500,000 deaths from the common flu.  Currently there are 71,000 deaths from Covid 19.  That's about 1/7TH. Let's say the final Covid results are the same - 500,000.  Young people who have lost the jobs and still aren't working 3 months from now are going to ask why the economy was destroyed, why are they not working?  Who's thinking about them?  They're not going to care about old farts like me.

I'm not saying they're acting reasonable.  What I'm asking is how policy makers are going to respond?  Will they tell them they have to suck it up?  Will they just print a lot more money and bankrupt the entire country?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on April 06, 2020, 08:56:05 pm
Higher rate doesn;t mean anything.  There were 500,000 deaths from the common flu.  Currently there are 71,000 deaths from Covid 19.  That's about 1/7TH. Let's say the final Covid results are the same - 500,000.  Young people who have lost the jobs and still aren't working 3 months from now are going to ask why the economy was destroyed, why are they not working?  Who's thinking about them?  They're not going to care about old farts like me.

I'm not saying they're acting reasonable.  What I'm asking is how policy makers are going to respond?  Will they tell them they have to suck it up?  Will they just print a lot more money and bankrupt the entire country?

But what if the death count if we just went about business as usual would be in the millions or tens of millions. At what point does a death equal a dollar? I know where I stand...economy comes back...when you are dead...you are dead.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 06, 2020, 09:09:57 pm
Higher rate doesn;t mean anything.  There were 500,000 deaths from the common flu.  Currently there are 71,000 deaths from Covid 19.  That's about 1/7TH. Let's say the final Covid results are the same - 500,000.  Young people who have lost the jobs and still aren't working 3 months from now are going to ask why the economy was destroyed, why are they not working?  Who's thinking about them?  They're not going to care about old farts like me.

I'm not saying they're acting reasonable.  What I'm asking is how policy makers are going to respond?  Will they tell them they have to suck it up?  Will they just print a lot more money and bankrupt the entire country?

Between the time you looked at the stats and now, another 3,000 people died. Today's count - 1,250 in USA, 5200 worldwide.
At this rate by the year end, there will be 1.5 million deaths worldwide. If the infection rate can't be slowed down, the total damage will be much greater.

You are right, the governments are spending now money which they don't have, the tax revenue has fallen drastically, and will continue to fall for longer than they anticipate.
So they will print more money. Much more money. In USA and everywhere else, except Antarctica which should do well.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 06, 2020, 09:35:27 pm
Between the time you looked at the stats and now, another 3,000 people died. Today's count - 1,250 in USA, 5200 worldwide.
At this rate by the year end, there will be 1.5 million deaths worldwide. If the infection rate can't be slowed down, the total damage will be much greater.

You are right, the governments are spending now money which they don't have, the tax revenue has fallen drastically, and will continue to fall for longer than they anticipate.
So they will print more money. Much more money. In USA and everywhere else, except Antarctica which should do well.
You're right. It could be terrible. My point is though that if it isn't that bad, for whatever the reason, people who had their lives turned upside down may be furious. They'll be demands for more and more personal bailouts which no one can afford.  Except China.  And Antarctica.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on April 06, 2020, 10:01:20 pm
You're right. It could be terrible. My point is though that if it isn't that bad, for whatever the reason, people who had their lives turned upside down may be furious. They'll be demands for more and more personal bailouts which no one can afford.  Except China.  And Antarctica.

Rather than being furious...they should be grateful. So if the US doesn't lose 100,000 people to the virus...people will be pissed off? Man...that's ass backwards way of thinking. Very selfish thoughts.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 06, 2020, 11:33:54 pm
Rather than being furious...they should be grateful. So if the US doesn't lose 100,000 people to the virus...people will be pissed off? Man...that's ass backwards way of thinking. Very selfish thoughts.
If the government said today that they're taking away everyone's car and forcing people to take public transportation in order to save 30,000 lives annually due to auto accidents, most people would be furious, even those who  may have lost family members in accidents.  So asking them to give up their livelihood and let their families starve and calling them selfish just isn't fair and reasonable. Only the independently wealthy can be self-righteous and claim unselfishness.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 06, 2020, 11:43:11 pm
If the government said today that they're taking away everyone's car and forcing people to take public transportation in order to save 30,000 lives annually due to auto accidents, most people would be furious, even those who  may have lost family members in accidents.  So asking them to give up their livelihood and let their families starve and calling them selfish just isn't fair and reasonable. Only the independently wealthy can be self-righteous and claim unselfishness.

Good point, but this is only half true.
Even if some workers are anxious to return to their jobs, many of those companies, such as restaurants, hotels, airlines are closed because their services are not needed. Not now, and sadly even for the foreseeable future the service businesses won't come back in the same way as before the crisis.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: kamma1 on April 07, 2020, 01:11:20 am
Isn't this the non-political thread?

An article in the Corriere della Sera focuses on a tv presenter who still tests positive a month after his first test, and weeks after symptoms subsided.  Doctors cited in the article refer to similar cases.  So the advice that it's ok to resume normal life after 14 days (does the UK still say 7 days?) have passed from symptoms is, at least in some cases, incorrect. 

https://www.corriere.it/cronache/20_aprile_06/coronavirus-iena-politi-da-30-giorni-positivo-l-infettivologo-galli-diversi-casiora-serve-approfondire-30e72946-77f1-11ea-98b9-85d4a42f03ea.shtml
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 07, 2020, 01:16:54 am
Potentially a life saving tip on how to fight the virus:

https://www.cnn.com/videos/media/2020/04/07/closing-argument-secret-kicking-coronavirus-chris-cuomo-cpt-vpx.cnn
 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 07, 2020, 01:26:49 am
Can a tiger get infected by eating a sick man?

I think the opposite happened in China.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 07, 2020, 01:31:54 am
There is already a paper from China documenting SARS-CoV-2 virus in common cats.  It's not known what the relevance this is as cats can get infected by a variety of coronaviruses.  I have not seen any papers documenting cat to human transmission.
But it's been said that a CHinese got the virus by eating some animal.  COuld that have been a tiger or from the cat family?  What's genetically common between humans and cats but not other mammals? I emailed a director at the NIH working for Fauci to ask him this question and give him the news about the tiger.  He responded by saying: thanks, OK.  I hope they look into it.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 07, 2020, 01:33:31 am
Of course you shouldn't trust anything the experts tell you. What do they know? This whole social distancing and masks thing is bollocks. For example, yesterday afternoon I rounded up our church youth group, and we all piled into vans to visit local nursing homes. You know residents in nursing homes are lonely and really look forward to having visitors. You should have seen their eyes light up when we walked in.

By the way, you mentioned earlier that you were diabetic. I sure hope you haven't fallen for that whole insulin thing. What a scam. That's just big pharma ripping you off. And you really didn't need that triple bypass. The doctor just had college tuition payments due for his two sons. Treating acid reflux as a heart attack is the oldest trick in the book.

The best thing you can do is ignore expert advice and go with your gut.
Nobody should follow a doctor's advice blindly.  One has to use some discernment.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 07, 2020, 04:07:58 am
But it's been said that a CHinese got the virus by eating some animal.  COuld that have been a tiger or from the cat family?  What's genetically common between humans and cats but not other mammals? I emailed a director at the NIH working for Fauci to ask him this question and give him the news about the tiger.  He responded by saying: thanks, OK.  I hope they look into it.

Three more tigers and three lions there were diagnosed with dry cough. They are all on medications now and seem to be on the mend.

Quote
Officials believe this is a unique case because Nadia, the Malayan tiger became sick after exposure to an asymptomatic zoo employee. Calle said the zoo did not know which employee infected the tiger.
“There have been some test results in dogs and cats, but they were either healthy or it wasn’t clear that COVID was the cause of the illness,” Calle said.

The first tiger at the zoo, which has been shut since mid-March, began showing signs of illness on March 27, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture National Veterinary Services Laboratories, which performed the test.

The virus that causes COVID-19 is believed to have spread from animals to humans, and a handful of animals have tested positive in Hong Kong.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-zoo/tiger-with-covid-19-gets-meds-tlc-from-new-yorks-bronx-zoo-keepers-idUSKBN21O2Y2

 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on April 07, 2020, 04:49:44 am
Higher rate doesn;t mean anything.  There were 500,000 deaths from the common flu.  Currently there are 71,000 deaths from Covid 19.  That's about 1/7TH. Let's say the final Covid results are the same - 500,000.  Young people who have lost the jobs and still aren't working 3 months from now are going to ask why the economy was destroyed, why are they not working?  Who's thinking about them?  They're not going to care about old farts like me.

I'm not saying they're acting reasonable.  What I'm asking is how policy makers are going to respond?  Will they tell them they have to suck it up?  Will they just print a lot more money and bankrupt the entire country?

Each country is taking different measures to face the health crisis and the ensuing economic crisis. EU moves at a slower pace, but something will be done to cater for the economy of the affected countries. In Portugal, where the large part of the economic structure is made of small companies, the problem is a short one - there is no money to pay salaries because there is no income. So the gov. has implemented a program of lay off, people go home temporarily and receive 2/3 of their monthly salary. Credit lines have also been opened to keep companies afloat. At the end of the day, the EU will have to come up with a concerted approach, otherwise it will be deemed as useless.

So yes, unemployment will go up, country debts will go up (Portugal's debt is 120% of GIP), but we will survive. I think it will be become clear in the coming weeks how policy makers will react, but the signs are out already. As for young people, they will survive too and adapt. Right now, I see a lot of young people who can not mourn their dead family members.

IMO, health comes first, and the economic balance will fall in naturally after that.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Jeremy Roussak on April 07, 2020, 06:19:51 am
  Of course, China stands to gain as they're the only people who save.  Plus they make cheap goods that we still need.   Maybe they started the virus to create this mess and help them pass America.

That sentiment is not only spectacularly asinine, it has no place in this thread. Final warning, Alan.

Jeremy
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Slobodan Blagojevic on April 07, 2020, 07:20:28 am
N95 and surgical masks do not seem to be very effective against COVID-19, some tests indicate. Counterintuitively there are more COVID-19 traces found outside the mask than inside after an infected patient sneezes.

https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2764367/effectiveness-surgical-cotton-masks-blocking-sars-cov-2-controlled-comparison?fbclid=IwAR2PmbMBLkJflQI9jUwpBg6rgNQSy7Kw3CeoMjqaK5BP2imK9vYSfig6Lyc

Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 07, 2020, 07:26:49 am
Here's some good news about "curve flattening" in British Columbia on Canada's west coast, https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-ontario-quebec-covid-19-1.5524056 (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-ontario-quebec-covid-19-1.5524056). It's an analysis of what went right. It was interesting to read about their public health planning. With all the shouting, we don't get to hear about how things can be done right, too boring I guess. Public health is really quite different than what we normally think of as medical care. The doctor-patient relationship is a one on one interaction but public health is a public commons arena, requires a different mind set.

Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 07, 2020, 07:27:13 am
Thank you, Slobodan for posting the link to the interesting article.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: degrub on April 07, 2020, 07:38:17 am
Here is an interesting Mythbusters video about how easy it is to spread virus on droplets -
https://youtu.be/3wPKBpk7wUY

and how to slow a sneeze dispersion -

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3vw0hIs2LEg


Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 07, 2020, 10:37:16 am
Three more tigers and three lions there were diagnosed with dry cough. They are all on medications now and seem to be on the mend.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa-zoo/tiger-with-covid-19-gets-meds-tlc-from-new-yorks-bronx-zoo-keepers-idUSKBN21O2Y2

 
Maybe Fauci should try catnip to see if it's effective.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 07, 2020, 10:43:17 am
Each country is taking different measures to face the health crisis and the ensuing economic crisis. EU moves at a slower pace, but something will be done to cater for the economy of the affected countries. In Portugal, where the large part of the economic structure is made of small companies, the problem is a short one - there is no money to pay salaries because there is no income. So the gov. has implemented a program of lay off, people go home temporarily and receive 2/3 of their monthly salary. Credit lines have also been opened to keep companies afloat. At the end of the day, the EU will have to come up with a concerted approach, otherwise it will be deemed as useless.

So yes, unemployment will go up, country debts will go up (Portugal's debt is 120% of GIP), but we will survive. I think it will be become clear in the coming weeks how policy makers will react, but the signs are out already. As for young people, they will survive too and adapt. Right now, I see a lot of young people who can not mourn their dead family members.

IMO, health comes first, and the economic balance will fall in naturally after that.
Where does the broke Portugal treasury get the money to pay out-of-work people while it's waiting for the EU money?  It can't print it like America. Where does the EU get the money from? Are the rich nations in the EU going to bail everyone out again?  What will this do to the EU?  Will they follow GB a la Brexit? Is anyone in Europe thinking this through? 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 07, 2020, 10:44:42 am
Maybe Fauci should try catnip to see if it's effective.

Or they should tell the Zoo employees to wear the masks and not to sneeze when they are less than 6 ft from the tigers.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 07, 2020, 11:07:23 am
N95 and surgical masks do not seem to be very effective against COVID-19, some tests indicate. Counterintuitively there are more COVID-19 traces found outside the mask than inside after an infected patient sneezes.

https://annals.org/aim/fullarticle/2764367/effectiveness-surgical-cotton-masks-blocking-sars-cov-2-controlled-comparison?fbclid=IwAR2PmbMBLkJflQI9jUwpBg6rgNQSy7Kw3CeoMjqaK5BP2imK9vYSfig6Lyc

The article is quite short (took me a minute to read) and it doesn’t say that.

First, they did not use any N95 masks.
Second, their last paragraph is deceiving. If you read the one before the last they state they don’t know what these results actually mean. They don’t filter all the particles, sure. The Petri dishes were placed only 20 cm away from their face, and the masks for sure reduce the size of the larger droplets which might travel further and be more infectious (higher quantity).

The conclusion that I take from this is: if a person coughs and has a mask, don’t stay closer to them than you would if they didn’t have a mask.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 07, 2020, 11:11:18 am
That sentiment is not only spectacularly asinine, it has no place in this thread. Final warning, Alan.

Jeremy
Jeremy, It's not spectacularly asinine.  Wuhan City where the virus started has a top secret Chinese lab that develops and researches viruses.  It's possible that they weaponize diseases there and it got out by mistake.  The purpose of weaponizing is to be used in an adversarial attack.  Certainly discussions about that possibility is a valid concern.  I guarantee American secret agencies are investigating the possibility and may even know what happened, just keeping it quiet.  Even your own Boris Johnson and his government thinks there's a possibility.  If it can't be discussed in this thread, where can you discuss it? Threatening me with banning seems arbitrary.  What standard are you using so posters know what limits you have in mind?
https://www.businessinsider.com/boris-johnson-government-coronavirus-may-leaked-chinese-laboratory-covid-2020-4
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Slobodan Blagojevic on April 07, 2020, 11:13:33 am
... The conclusion that I take from this is: if a person coughs and has a mask, don’t stay closer to them than you would if they didn’t have a mask.

Dare I draw a different conclusion from what you said above? If one keeps the distance, masks are not needed?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Slobodan Blagojevic on April 07, 2020, 11:16:23 am
... If it can't be discussed in this thread, where can you discuss it?...

Alan, since the question you posed is political, it does not belong to this thread. You have your own Playpen thread for that.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 07, 2020, 11:17:08 am
Here's some good news about "curve flattening" in British Columbia on Canada's west coast, https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-ontario-quebec-covid-19-1.5524056 (https://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-columbia/bc-ontario-quebec-covid-19-1.5524056). It's an analysis of what went right. It was interesting to read about their public health planning. With all the shouting, we don't get to hear about how things can be done right, too boring I guess. Public health is really quite different than what we normally think of as medical care. The doctor-patient relationship is a one on one interaction but public health is a public commons arena, requires a different mind set.


Isn't BC less populated per square mile?  Wouldn't the bigger more crowded cities in Ontario and Quebec account for higher rates of infections?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 07, 2020, 11:17:46 am
Dare I draw a different conclusion from what you said above? If one keeps the distance, masks are not needed?

No. First, this would travel faster and stay airborne longer without a mask, and second, the masks decrease your infectious spread around you.

The masks for everybody are not to prevent to wearer to get infected, but to decrease the chance that a wearer will infect others.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 07, 2020, 11:19:21 am
Alan, since the question you posed is political, it does not belong to this thread. You have your own Playpen thread for that.
Oh, you're right. I got mixed up which thread I was posting on.  Sorry Jeremy.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 07, 2020, 11:23:19 am
Dare I draw a different conclusion from what you said above? If one keeps the distance, masks are not needed?

Probably not a case of one or the other, maybe every little bit helps. Depending on specific conditions, some things may help more than others.

All I can discern from everything I've read is that masks may not help the wearer much in some cases, since eyes are still exposed and droplets may accumulate on the outside of masks that a person may later touch. You might need full face screens to provide passive protection of that kind.

Masks seem to protect others from people who are wearing masks. So if everyone wore them, that might be good. But it only matters in close quarters. When I'm out for a walk, I never get close enough to anyone for it to matter much, I wouldn't think. But that was true before Covid-19.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 07, 2020, 11:25:53 am
Isn't BC less populated per square mile?  Wouldn't the bigger more crowded cities in Ontario and Quebec account for higher rates of infections?

B.C.'s demographics are probably not significantly different than anywhere else. The vast majority of people live in cities and towns, just like everywhere else. You might just have to drive farther to get to the next town, is all.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 07, 2020, 11:36:33 am
Isn't BC less populated per square mile?  Wouldn't the bigger more crowded cities in Ontario and Quebec account for higher rates of infections?

All three provinces are quite large, but in all three of them most of the population resides just in a few cities in a relatively narrow strip in the southern regions. The population densities in Vancouver, Toronto and Montreal are about the same.
 
Quote
Montreal has emerged as Canada’s COVID-19 hot spot after an early spring break and close ties to New York and France sowed novel coronavirus infections that are rapidly growing into new cases and hospitalizations. Montreal, with about 5 per cent of Canada’s population, has about one-quarter of the country’s COVID-19 cases, according to the latest data published by public health authorities. The province of Quebec, with 22 per cent of Canada’s population, has about half of the country’s cases.

Public health officials and independent experts, along with Premier François Legault, point back to Feb. 28 to explain the province’s rapid expansion in coronavirus infection and serious illness. That was the last day of school before spring break for most Quebec school children.

As thousands of Quebeckers drove into the United States and flew to Europe and the Caribbean on holiday, the coronavirus was known mostly for infecting Asian countries, northern Italy, and a cruise ship off the coast of Japan. While Quebeckers were away, on March 1, Florida declared a public health emergency. New York followed on March 7, as Quebeckers started to head home.

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-why-quebecs-coronavirus-cases-have-skyrocketed/
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 07, 2020, 12:09:36 pm
B.C.'s demographics are probably not significantly different than anywhere else. The vast majority of people live in cities and towns, just like everywhere else. You might just have to drive farther to get to the next town, is all.
In the US, it's the population centers like NYC Metro Area that are getting hit hardest which makes a lot of sense.  If your neighbor is a bear, it's pretty hard to get infected.  Also, don't more foreigners go to Ontario and Quebec than BC cities.  So the exposure is greater. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 07, 2020, 12:14:10 pm
In the US, it's the population centers like NYC Metro Area that are getting hit hardest which makes a lot of sense.  If your neighbor is a bear, it's pretty hard to get infected.  Also, don't more foreigners go to Ontario and Quebec than BC cities.  So the exposure is greater. 
Canada's Most Visited Cities
Montreal: 2,240,000 Visitors Per Year.
Vancouver: 3,900,000 Visitors Per Year.
Toronto: 4,520,000 Visitors Per Year.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 07, 2020, 12:17:51 pm
By comparison, NYC had about 60 million visitors last year which could account for it's high infection rate.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 07, 2020, 12:29:34 pm
Canada's Most Visited Cities
Montreal: 2,240,000 Visitors Per Year.
Vancouver: 3,900,000 Visitors Per Year.
Toronto: 4,520,000 Visitors Per Year.

This is actually an evidence that the city size or number of its visitors is not the most important factor. Montreal is smaller than Toronto, it had the fewest visitors out of the three cities, but the highest infection count. As pointed out in my previous post, the large infection count is attributed to many Quebec travelers who brought the virus back home from their vacation. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 07, 2020, 12:39:39 pm
This is actually an evidence that the city size or number of its visitors is not the most important factor. Montreal is smaller than Toronto, it had the fewest visitors out of the three cities, but the highest infection count. As pointed out in my previous post, the large infection count is attributed to many Quebec travelers who brought the virus back home from their vacation. 
Well the French kiss more than the British.  :)
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on April 07, 2020, 01:39:33 pm
Dare I draw a different conclusion from what you said above? If one keeps the distance, masks are not needed?
Only if you are upwind.  I was thinking about this the other day in the grocery store which has central HVAC system for heating and cooling.  I think I was under one of the vents and felt the air coming in from the ceiling.  Viral particles if they are suspended in a somewhat dry environment can be blown around by the heating/cooling system.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 07, 2020, 01:45:30 pm
Only if you are upwind.  I was thinking about this the other day in the grocery store which has central HVAC system for heating and cooling.  I think I was under one of the vents and felt the air coming in from the ceiling.  Viral particles if they are suspended in a somewhat dry environment can be blown around by the heating/cooling system.

There was a discussion about how effective really are the HVAC filters, particularly when in an enclosed space, aka planes.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on April 07, 2020, 02:02:09 pm
Isn't BC less populated per square mile?  Wouldn't the bigger more crowded cities in Ontario and Quebec account for higher rates of infections?

Next to Manhatten, Vancouver's downtown has the 2nd highest density population in North America. There is also a huge Asia population in Vancouver and lots of people travel back and forth between Vancouver and Asia.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on April 07, 2020, 02:11:03 pm
Big difference between BC and Ontario / Quebec is BC started the isolation and distancing before spring break whereas the other provinces waited a bit, allowing the virus to spread within the cities. Just more proof that early acting really make a difference.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: RichDesmond on April 07, 2020, 02:21:25 pm
If the government said today that they're taking away everyone's car and forcing people to take public transportation in order to save 30,000 lives annually due to auto accidents, most people would be furious, even those who  may have lost family members in accidents.  So asking them to give up their livelihood and let their families starve and calling them selfish just isn't fair and reasonable. Only the independently wealthy can be self-righteous and claim unselfishness.

About 90 people/day die in the US due to car accidents. CV-19 is killing over 1000/day right now, and that number is accelerating.
How big does it have to get before you'll support drastic action?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Chris Kern on April 07, 2020, 02:27:46 pm
There was a discussion about how effective really are the HVAC filters, particularly when in an enclosed space, aka planes.

As far as I am aware, no air-handler filters (at least, none sold for general commercial or residential use in the United States) are rated to trap particles smaller than 0.3 microns.  The COVID-19 virus is approximately 0.125 micron.  Of course, that's the virus itself.  My understanding is that as an infectious agent, the virus is almost always encapsulated in a droplet such as those emitted by a cough or sneeze.  I suspect those droplets typically are large enough to be captured by most of the filters that would be used in a commercial building, a home with forced-air ventilation, or an aircraft.  I read somewhere that the filters used in commercial airplanes have a rating similar to those used in hospital operating rooms.

As an aside, I've also read that about half the air circulated in airline cabins is fresh, the other half recirculated.  It's impractical to use 100 percent fresh air at the altitude most jets fly and provide an acceptable level of humidity for the cabin occupants.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 07, 2020, 07:19:47 pm
As an aside, I've also read that about half the air circulated in airline cabins is fresh, the other half recirculated.  It's impractical to use 100 percent fresh air at the altitude most jets fly and provide an acceptable level of humidity for the cabin occupants.

One of the essential 'ingredients' in airline air purification systems is, unless I'm mistaken, PG.

Propylene Glycol (PG) is a synthetic product that begins by oxidizing Propylene with organic hydrogen peroxide to create Propylene Oxide. From there, it is then hydrolysed into Propylene Glycol.

Quote
In 1942, a study(*) conducted by Dr. Oswald Hope Robertson of the University of Chicago’s Billings Hospital studied how the inhalation of propylene glycol impacted laboratory mice. Dr. Robertson was testing the effects of PG by inhalation. He suspected that this powerful ingredient could potentially be helpful for treating respiratory diseases, influenza, and even pneumonia.

He placed groups of mice into two chambers. In the first chamber, he sprayed the air with propylene glycol and then the flu virus. In the second chamber, he sprayed only the flu virus. All of the mice in the chamber sprayed with propylene glycol survived, whereas the mice exposed only to the flu virus died.

Dr. Robertson concluded, “The propylene glycol itself was a potent germicide. One part of glycol in 2,000,000 parts of air would – within a few seconds – kill concentrations of air-suspended pneumococci, streptococci, and other bacteria numbering millions to the cubic foot.”  The results were published in the US National Library of Medicine in the same year. 

(*) http://content.time.com/time/magazine/article/0,9171,932876,00.html

Food for thought ?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 07, 2020, 07:27:04 pm
One of the essential 'ingredients' in airline air purification systems is, unless I'm mistaken, PG.

Propylene Glycol (PG) is a synthetic product that begins by oxidizing Propylene with organic hydrogen peroxide to create Propylene Oxide. From there, it is then hydrolysed into Propylene Glycol.

Food for thought ?

It sounds very impressive. Were there any subsequent studies and are any doctors or hospitals using this method to kill the bacteria?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: John Camp on April 07, 2020, 07:32:51 pm
This is actually an evidence that the city size or number of its visitors is not the most important factor. Montreal is smaller than Toronto, it had the fewest visitors out of the three cities, but the highest infection count. As pointed out in my previous post, the large infection count is attributed to many Quebec travelers who brought the virus back home from their vacation.

I have a boat in a Fort Lauderdale marina, adjacent to a RV park. One long stretch of the park, on both sides of the road, is dominated by RVs from Quebec, and French is the common language. All those people left Lauderdale after the spring break parties. Relevant? Who knows?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 07, 2020, 07:46:25 pm
It sounds very impressive. Were there any subsequent studies and are any doctors or hospitals using this method to kill the bacteria?

Well PG is the ingredient that's pervasive in many products and it's anti-bacterial. The FDA classifies PG as a food and drug additive that is “generally recognized as safe”. It is clear, colourless, and has no taste or odour -  essentially a synthetic liquid that absorbs water. It is still widely used today and a principal ingredient of asthma inhalers, albuterol treatments and a multitude of air purification systems (aircraft, hospitals, hotels, offices etc)

There is evidence, empirical & anecdotal, that it not only assists asthma sufferers with a consequential reduction in the use of inhalers but provides an effective degree of protection against infections, flu included.

Scientific proven studies ? None that I know of. Yet.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 07, 2020, 08:00:03 pm
I have a boat in a Fort Lauderdale marina, adjacent to a RV park. One long stretch of the park, on both sides of the road, is dominated by RVs from Quebec, and French is the common language. All those people left Lauderdale after the spring break parties. Relevant? Who knows?

Very likely, it was one of the factors in the infection spread in Quebec. Every year, several hundred thousands of Québécois overwinter in Southern Florida.

On a slightly different subject, today it was reported that a week ago a family returning to Quebec, transported a dead body all the way from Florida. The death was caused not by the coronavirus, but by a heart attack.

Quote
Canadian border agents discovered that a family had driven from Florida to Quebec with their deceased family member's body in the backseat of their car. The family cited the high cost of U.S. health care, plus the cost of shipping the body back to Canada, as the reason they didn't stop at a hospital, CTV News reported. Fernand Drapeau, 87, was with his son and wife on his way back home to Quebec from Florida when he suffered a heart attack and died, CTV News said. His family decided to keep driving home to Canada.

https://www.abc12.com/content/news/508325942.html 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on April 07, 2020, 09:11:04 pm
I have a boat in a Fort Lauderdale marina, adjacent to a RV park. One long stretch of the park, on both sides of the road, is dominated by RVs from Quebec, and French is the common language. All those people left Lauderdale after the spring break parties. Relevant? Who knows?

That's exactly the difference between BC and Quebec / Ontario. BC locked down prior to spring break and ordered incoming people to BC to self isolate for 14 days. Quebec and Ontario waited until after spring break with a bunch coming into the provinces from abroad without any isolation.

That just shows you how important quick action is to grabbing hold of this virus. Days count...and when we see weeks wasted without any action like in the US...well you can see what's happening.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 07, 2020, 10:33:11 pm
That's exactly the difference between BC and Quebec / Ontario. BC locked down prior to spring break and ordered incoming people to BC to self isolate for 14 days. Quebec and Ontario waited until after spring break with a bunch coming into the provinces from abroad without any isolation.

That just shows you how important quick action is to grabbing hold of this virus. Days count...and when we see weeks wasted without any action like in the US...well you can see what's happening.
Monday morning quarterbacking.  We'll know better next time. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 07, 2020, 10:44:02 pm
Monday morning quarterbacking.  We'll know better next time.

Stop repeating that nonsense. Everybody who knows anything about this always knew and they told anyone who'd listen. Some listened, some didn't.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 07, 2020, 10:56:50 pm
Well PG is the ingredient that's pervasive in many products and it's anti-bacterial. The FDA classifies PG as a food and drug additive that is “generally recognized as safe”. It is clear, colourless, and has no taste or odour -  essentially a synthetic liquid that absorbs water. It is still widely used today and a principal ingredient of asthma inhalers, albuterol treatments and a multitude of air purification systems (aircraft, hospitals, hotels, offices etc)

There is evidence, empirical & anecdotal, that it not only assists asthma sufferers with a consequential reduction in the use of inhalers but provides an effective degree of protection against infections, flu included.

Scientific proven studies ? None that I know of. Yet.

You ought to email the NIH with you thoughts about this.  Maybe they could see if it would help with Covid-19.
Email who you think is appropriate.
https://www.niaid.nih.gov/about/director-contacts
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 07, 2020, 10:59:52 pm
Stop repeating that nonsense. Everybody who knows anything about this always knew and they told anyone who'd listen. Some listened, some didn't.
I can't respond.  Politics you know. :)
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 07, 2020, 11:12:19 pm
Monday morning quarterbacking.  We'll know better next time.

Actually, some people were raising the alarm already two months ago, while others were minimizing it. For many, there won't be a next time.
Today's death count: 800 in NY, 2000 in USA, 7000+ worldwide
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Jeremy Roussak on April 08, 2020, 04:34:20 am
Well PG is the ingredient that's pervasive in many products and it's anti-bacterial. The FDA classifies PG as a food and drug additive that is “generally recognized as safe”. It is clear, colourless, and has no taste or odour -  essentially a synthetic liquid that absorbs water. It is still widely used today and a principal ingredient of asthma inhalers, albuterol treatments and a multitude of air purification systems (aircraft, hospitals, hotels, offices etc)

There is evidence, empirical & anecdotal, that it not only assists asthma sufferers with a consequential reduction in the use of inhalers but provides an effective degree of protection against infections, flu included.

Scientific proven studies ? None that I know of. Yet.

It is less than immediately obvious that an anti-bacterial agent can provide even the slightest protection against a virus, whether influenza or covid-19.

Jeremy
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Slobodan Blagojevic on April 08, 2020, 04:39:48 am
Actually, some people were raising the alarm already two months ago, while others were minimizing it...

There is always someone somewhere, saying something. And then there is always someone saying something different. Someone is always right in retrospect.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on April 08, 2020, 04:46:15 am
Where does the broke Portugal treasury get the money to pay out-of-work people while it's waiting for the EU money?  It can't print it like America. Where does the EU get the money from? Are the rich nations in the EU going to bail everyone out again?  What will this do to the EU?  Will they follow GB a la Brexit? Is anyone in Europe thinking this through?

1. In 2019 Portugal had a superavit, so we are not broke. This cushion is coming in very useful now.

2. EU finance ministers are meeting since yesterday to discuss a total package of 500 billion euros, money that countries can borrow at very low interest, coming from EBI, ECB, and other institutions. The risk is that countries that already have 120% of debt don't want to raise it even more - Italy, Spain, Portugal, even France. They want "coronabonds".

3. As I said before, the EU works and decides at a slower pace, but a decision will come in the next few weeks.

4. In the last 2008 crisis, Portugalwent bankrupt and in 2011 we had to call the IMF and EU to borrow money. A total of 75 billion euros. We paid it already. This time around, the number is going to be much higher. The difference now is that all countries are hit equally by the pandemics, and it is no ones fault.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on April 08, 2020, 05:01:29 am
There is always someone somewhere, saying something. And then there is always someone saying something different. Someone is always right in retrospect.

I remember seeing a chinese doctor on the telly around mid-Feb, when china was being hit severely, warning their italian counterparts to take this virus seriously. They did not, and we know the consequences. More than 50% of deaths in Italy are in the Bergamo region, where the infection can now be traced back to the celebrations of Atalanta's victory in the champions League against Athletic Madrid - that match was actually played in Milan (due to Atalanta's stadium lack of conditions) - another high infection place. Milan also suffered due to Feb they have a lot of fashion events.

Portugal is most affected in the northern part, especially around Porto. Why? It is an industrial area for Portuguese fashion brands, many people go to Milan to attend, you guessed it, fashion shows. They returned to Portugal infected. By mid-March in Portugal, there were about 12 contagion chains that could be traced to Italy, Spain, and France, which is hardly surprising.

I also remember an Italian doctor on the telly, end March, warning doctors from Spain and France not to treat this as a "flu".

So yes, everybody will have something to say, that is why I only listen to doctors, nurses, hralth care specialists, and scientists from the area. It is especially important to learn from others that were hit previously, as the virus took some time to spread and gave for instance Europe at least 1 month warning, and North America 2 months.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 08, 2020, 05:48:20 am
It is less than immediately obvious that an anti-bacterial agent can provide even the slightest protection against a virus, whether influenza or covid-19.

See my earlier post #458.

Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 08, 2020, 06:53:31 am
Extensive study in The Lancet

Epidemiological and clinical characteristics of patients with COVID-19 have been reported but risk factors for mortality and a detailed clinical course of illness, including viral shedding, have not been well described.

Quote
We included 171 patients with complete data for all variables (53 non-survivors and 118 survivors) ... For survivors, the median duration of viral shedding was 20·0 days from illness onset ... The shortest observed duration of viral shedding among survivors was 8 days, whereas the longest was 37 days. Among 29 patients who received lopinavir/ritonavir and were discharged, the median time from illness onset to initiation of antiviral treatment was 14·0 days and the median duration of viral shedding was 22·0 days.

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30566-3/fulltext
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 08, 2020, 07:21:53 am
A question about masks. The impression I've had is that they are disposable, that they can't be dis-infected. I sort of understand why immersion in dis-infecting liquids could affect the integrity of the fabric, but is there a reason why UV dis-infection wouldn't work?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 08, 2020, 07:25:29 am
In response to the idea what no one knew what to do at the onset of the contagion, I listened to a report about the Spanish Flu epidemic yesterday (recent podcast episode of NPR's Human Brain https://www.npr.org/2020/03/23/820066211/an-unfinished-lesson-what-the-1918-flu-tells-us-about-human-nature (https://www.npr.org/2020/03/23/820066211/an-unfinished-lesson-what-the-1918-flu-tells-us-about-human-nature)) and they did social distancing in 1918-1919.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 08, 2020, 07:59:04 am
Another on-line resource: The Lancet
https://www.thelancet.com/coronavirus
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 08, 2020, 08:04:51 am
There is always someone somewhere, saying something. And then there is always someone saying something different. Someone is always right in retrospect.

That’s why you should look for advice to people who are trained to deal with this, and select those people based on competency and not yes/no status.

I have no inside info and yet I knew it will spread after they announced the first case in US without a known sick contact/ travel, that means it was already out there in the community for a while. I’m sure the right people knew this way sooner than I did. And this was in late February.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: degrub on April 08, 2020, 08:10:01 am
A question about masks. The impression I've had is that they are disposable, that they can't be dis-infected. I sort of understand why immersion in dis-infecting liquids could affect the integrity of the fabric, but is there a reason why UV dis-infection wouldn't work?
It is a matter of the UV reaching the location of the virus with enough intensity and duration. On cloth or fabric that would be very difficult. It can work for planar surfaces like tools, glasses, AC evaporators, etc.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 08, 2020, 08:15:02 am
A question about masks. The impression I've had is that they are disposable, that they can't be dis-infected. I sort of understand why immersion in dis-infecting liquids could affect the integrity of the fabric, but is there a reason why UV dis-infection wouldn't work?

It depends.

The cotton and similar could easily be washed, but those masks they are not that effective.

Allegedly some surgical masks can be disinfected by boiling for 3 min without significant damage but I have yet to see this confirmed. Probably you could leave them for days without touching them and the virus will die, even sooner if they get some sun.

For N95 they are coming with several options because of the current shortage. CDC said that 30 min at 70 degrees C will be good enough. Some use hydrogen peroxide vapors. Others (and my hospital I think it’s going with this) will use ethylene oxide gas, commonly used for medical devices.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 08, 2020, 08:15:32 am
There is always someone somewhere, saying something. And then there is always someone saying something different. Someone is always right in retrospect.

There are always someone predicting stock market boom or crash. And then there is always someone saying something different. Some are usually right and some loose their shirts.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on April 08, 2020, 08:20:50 am
There was a discussion about how effective really are the HVAC filters, particularly when in an enclosed space, aka planes.
Here's an article I read this morning about various materials that can be incorporated into homemade masks:  https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-homemade-mask-material-DIY-face-mask-ppe.html  Part of the problem with some materials is loose fibers, particularly if they contain fiberglass.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 08, 2020, 08:20:56 am
A question about masks. The impression I've had is that they are disposable, that they can't be dis-infected. I sort of understand why immersion in dis-infecting liquids could affect the integrity of the fabric, but is there a reason why UV dis-infection wouldn't work?

Chancellor Angela Merkel recommends desinfecting masks in the microwave.

Quote
“Improper use could be even more fatal,” Merkel said when asked if the government would recommend wearing masks. “You need to wash it regularly, avoid wearing it over a long period of time, iron it, or warm it the oven or the microwave.”
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on April 08, 2020, 08:21:55 am
Chancellor Angela Merkel recommends desinfecting masks in the microwave.
If there is any elastic in the mask, it could degrade with irradiation.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 08, 2020, 08:24:17 am
In most cases, even a one-time-use mask could survive a couple of gentle cleanings.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 08, 2020, 08:26:49 am
Chancellor Angela Merkel recommends desinfecting masks in the microwave.

If it doesn’t have materials that melt.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: elliot_n on April 08, 2020, 08:32:05 am
Merkel was referring to DIY fabric masks. Standard surgical masks contain a strip of metal, so not a good candidate for the microwave.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on April 08, 2020, 08:40:05 am
Monday morning quarterbacking.  We'll know better next time.

Do you really think little old BC had information that Trump did not.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 08, 2020, 08:41:57 am
It depends.

The cotton and similar could easily be washed, but those masks they are not that effective.

Allegedly some surgical masks can be disinfected by boiling for 3 min without significant damage but I have yet to see this confirmed. Probably you could leave them for days without touching them and the virus will die, even sooner if they get some sun.

For N95 they are coming with several options because of the current shortage. CDC said that 30 min at 70 degrees C will be good enough. Some use hydrogen peroxide vapors. Others (and my hospital I think it’s going with this) will use ethylene oxide gas, commonly used for medical devices.
Why not spray with alcohol and let dry in the sun?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 08, 2020, 08:50:31 am
There are always someone predicting stock market boom or crash. And then there is always someone saying something different. Some are usually right and some loose their shirts.
Once a year, our Men's Club goes to a NJ race track with our wives.  Probably around 50 people.  The track, either Freehold trotters or the thoroughbreds at Monmouth, set up a special room for us with  smorgasbord, chicken Milanese, and other delights, and booze and wine, and betting booths just for us.  We all have a great time.  At the end of each race, the winners start shouting with glee and appreciation of themselves telling everyone how they picked the winner using some mystical method or some other.  Then after the next race, those winners start screaming with glee and described how they picked their winners using their methods.  It's funny. None of them ever described how they picked their losers.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 08, 2020, 08:54:49 am
Here's an article I read this morning about various materials that can be incorporated into homemade masks:  https://www.nytimes.com/article/coronavirus-homemade-mask-material-DIY-face-mask-ppe.html  Part of the problem with some materials is loose fibers, particularly if they contain fiberglass.
Fiberglass in your lungs can cause cancer like asbestos.  You don't want to be breathing in that stuff. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 08, 2020, 09:04:59 am
Do you really think little old BC had information that Trump did not.
Ever go to a race track and follow the picks of the experts.  They don't pick winners all the time either.  We get advice everyday about things.  Stocks, the weather, etc. How do you know which advice is the correct one.  If we could know, we'd all pick the winners at the race track and the stock market and all be very rich.  Obviously, someone is going to be right.  But some people pick long shots and other pick the favorites.  But not all the horses are going to win.  So your constant reminded about Trump is silly and politicking, something this thread isn't about, or so I'm told. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 08, 2020, 09:21:14 am
Can you clean nitrile gloves?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on April 08, 2020, 09:39:59 am
Ever go to a race track and follow the picks of the experts.  They don't pick winners all the time either.  We get advice everyday about things.  Stocks, the weather, etc. How do you know which advice is the correct one.  If we could know, we'd all pick the winners at the race track and the stock market and all be very rich.  Obviously, someone is going to be right.  But some people pick long shots and other pick the favorites.  But not all the horses are going to win.  So your constant reminded about Trump is silly and politicking, something this thread isn't about, or so I'm told.

If not use the advice from experts...who's advice would be better to use? Do I listen to the experts about stocks each morning or do I go to the corner store and get his advice.

In this case...there were many experts saying the same damn thing. Your insistence of experts aren't always right is correct...but tell me who else would you listen to if the experts all are saying the same thing.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on April 08, 2020, 09:55:00 am
In response to the idea what no one knew what to do at the onset of the contagion, I listened to a report about the Spanish Flu epidemic yesterday (recent podcast episode of NPR's Human Brain https://www.npr.org/2020/03/23/820066211/an-unfinished-lesson-what-the-1918-flu-tells-us-about-human-nature (https://www.npr.org/2020/03/23/820066211/an-unfinished-lesson-what-the-1918-flu-tells-us-about-human-nature)) and they did social distancing in 1918-1919.

I can´t remember where I posted the picture anymore, so many threads... it was a pic from NatGeo with a series of graphics from the 1918 influenza, on the epidemic curve for several cities in the USA. The ones that had fewer deaths were the ones that implemented quarantine earlier. So no surprise there - 100 years later, human society is very different, but viruses are not, they are very basic and predictable.

I also read a report from a economy university saying that in the long term, protecting people and quarantining was better for the economy.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 08, 2020, 09:55:50 am
Why not spray with alcohol and let dry in the sun?

Alcohol can destroy the smaller fibers needed for proper filtering.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 08, 2020, 09:56:42 am
If not use the advice from experts...who's advice would be better to use? Do I listen to the experts about stocks each morning or do I go to the corner store and get his advice.

In this case...there were many experts saying the same damn thing. Your insistence of experts aren't always right is correct...but tell me who else would you listen to if the experts all are saying the same thing.
It's not that experts aren't always right.  It's that their advice varies.  So it becomes difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff. 

Think about camera recommendations here.  We're all pretty savvy about these things.  Yet someone asks a question, and they'll get half a dozen different recommendations, all may have some validity.  Almost always, there is no completely right answer. which I think is the situation here.  How do you balance economic issues against health issues.  There really is no winning solution.  This is one of those things that there will be great damage regardless of which way you go.  Of course, picking the better way is always easier after the race is over.  Big deal. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 08, 2020, 09:58:19 am
It's not that experts aren't always right.  It's that their advice varies.  So it becomes difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff. 

Think about camera recommendations here.  We're all pretty savvy about these things.  Yet someone asks a question, and they'll get half a dozen different recommendations, all may have some validity.  Almost always, there is no completely right answer. which I think is the situation here.  How do you balance economic issues against health issues.  There really is no winning solution.  This is one of those things that there will be great damage regardless of which way you go.  Of course, picking the better way is always easier after the race is over.  Big deal.

Are you actually comparing camera advice with health policy decisions?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 08, 2020, 10:00:21 am
I can´t remember where I posted the picture anymore, so many threads... it was a pic from NatGeo with a series of graphics from the 1918 influenza, on the epidemic curve for several cities in the USA. The ones that had fewer deaths were the ones that implemented quarantine earlier. So no surprise there - 100 years later, human society is very different, but viruses are not, they are very basic and predictable.

I also read a report from a economy university saying that in the long term, protecting people and quarantining was better for the economy.
If people were smart and learned from experience, there would have been no WWII.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 08, 2020, 10:03:15 am
Are you actually comparing camera advice with health policy decisions?
Yes. How else would you decide things on issues you never experienced before? We all use our other experience in life to help us.  Unless you know a genie you call to get advice.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 08, 2020, 10:07:11 am
It's not that experts aren't always right.  It's that their advice varies.  So it becomes difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff. 


I have had the exact opposite experience. The advice has been highly consistent and clear. Keep away from each other and wash your hands. There are no approved drugs and any vaccine is 12-18 months away. This has been repeated by just about anyone who knows anything about the topic and they have been saying this from the start. It's all archived in podcasts and text documents.

Whenever topics come up that are not known yet, they have always said that it wasn't known yet, i.e., masks, but this is our best knowledge on the subject as of the moment, but the basic rules about distance and washing still and always apply.

The only confusing nonsense I've heard was from web noise.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on April 08, 2020, 10:14:03 am
It's not that experts aren't always right.  It's that their advice varies.  So it becomes difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff. 

Think about camera recommendations here.  We're all pretty savvy about these things.  Yet someone asks a question, and they'll get half a dozen different recommendations, all may have some validity.  Almost always, there is no completely right answer. which I think is the situation here.  How do you balance economic issues against health issues.  There really is no winning solution.  This is one of those things that there will be great damage regardless of which way you go.  Of course, picking the better way is always easier after the race is over.  Big deal.

But if the majority of experts are saying the same thing...who would you believe? You talk with a lot of what ifs...but reality was the experts were saying the same thing...and much more importantly, the pandemic was well on its way in other parts of the world.

If China was locking down and people were dying and the experts were saying this virus was extremely dangerous and action needs to be taken...what would you do?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on April 08, 2020, 10:18:22 am
As you know I'm reviewing all the studies that are coming out.  One interesting line of research, and I stress this is all observational, is that countries where there is universal BCG vaccination appear to have fewer cases of SARS-CoV-2. there have been about a dozen papers on this topic. Here is a NY Times story on this topic that is pretty straight forward:  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/health/coronavirus-bcg-vaccine.html & Wikipedia:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BCG_vaccine  Whether is is just a data curiosity or something meaningful is difficult to assess right now.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 08, 2020, 10:18:49 am
I have had the exact opposite experience. The advice has been highly consistent and clear. Keep away from each other and wash your hands. There are no approved drugs and any vaccine is 12-18 months away. This has been repeated by just about anyone who knows anything about the topic and they have been saying this from the start. It's all archived in podcasts and text documents.

Whenever topics come up that are not known yet, they have always said that it wasn't known yet, i.e., masks, but this is our best knowledge on the subject as of the moment, but the basic rules about distance and washing still and always apply.

The only confusing nonsense I've heard was from web noise.
That's new news. It took a long time to sink in with people.  I was referring to what government should have done early one.  It was not as clear back then. Difficult choices did not seem so easy to pick. The CHinese were lying to us about the disease.  We didn't have all the facts yet.  That's what I was referring too.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on April 08, 2020, 10:23:28 am
That's new news. It took a long time to sink in with people.  I was referring to what government should have done early one.  It was not as clear back then. Difficult choices did not seem so easy to pick. The CHinese were lying to us about the disease.  We didn't have all the facts yet.  That's what I was referring too.

Alan, when do you feel we had enough facts to make the right decisions?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 08, 2020, 10:27:14 am
But if the majority of experts are saying the same thing...who would you believe? You talk with a lot of what ifs...but reality was the experts were saying the same thing...and much more importantly, the pandemic was well on its way in other parts of the world.

If China was locking down and people were dying and the experts were saying this virus was extremely dangerous and action needs to be taken...what would you do?
Probably not shut down the US economy during the early stages.  At least not at first.  Remember, there are economic experts as well as medical experts and scientific experts.  So you get both advising you.

"Mr. President,' say the scientists.  "If this virus gets out of hand, many people are going to die.  We don't know how many.  But a lot"
"Mr. President," say the economic experts, "if we shut down the economy by keeping people home. we're going to destroy it.  Millions of people will be out of work.  We don't know how many will starve and be bankrupted.  But it will be a lot."

It's like the Gordian knot.  The horns of a dilemma. Whose advice do you follow? You're damned if you do and damned if you don't.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 08, 2020, 10:32:10 am
That's new news. It took a long time to sink in with people.  I was referring to what government should have done early one.  It was not as clear back then. Difficult choices did not seem so easy to pick. The CHinese were lying to us about the disease.  We didn't have all the facts yet.  That's what I was referring too.

You're hanging your hat on that Chinese lie a bit too much. There was a period of about a month from mid-December to about mid-January when they tried covering things up, and did not succeed ver well. They disciplined a doc or two, then eventually they changed their M.O. and reported to WHO. This is all well-documented. Before that, all they seemed to have was uncoordinated reports of a weird pneumonia in Wuhan. I have heard this narrative from several quarters now.

During that period of attempted cover-up, the info was getting out anyway, and reporters have disclosed that the various intelligence agencies were on top of it all and knew it was happening. So maybe it's true to say that you and I didn't have adequate info by mid-Jan, people in power did. And the info got out fairly rapidly soon after.

What the Chinese government did was stupid but ineffective. Makes sense to be pissed off about it, but it is not THE critical act of the story, just one of them. The virus was going to get out, that's what they do.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 08, 2020, 10:34:02 am
Probably not shut down the US economy during the early stages.  At least not at first.  Remember, there are economic experts as well as medical experts and scientific experts.  So you get both advising you.

"Mr. President,' say the scientists.  "If this virus gets out of hand, many people are going to die.  We don't know how many.  But a lot"
"Mr. President," say the economic experts, "if we shut down the economy by keeping people home. we're going to destroy it.  Millions of people will be out of work.  We don't know how many will starve and be bankrupted.  But it will be a lot."

It's like the Gordian knot.  The horns of a dilemma. Whose advice do you follow? You're damned if you do and damned if you don't.

This is just repeat info. We've read it all before. We know what you think.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on April 08, 2020, 10:36:42 am
You're hanging your hat on that Chinese lie a bit too much. There was a period of about a month from mid-December to about mid-January when they tried covering things up, and did not succeed ver well. They disciplined a doc or two, then eventually they changed their M.O. and reported to WHO. This is all well-documented. Before that, all they seemed to have was uncoordinated reports of a weird pneumonia in Wuhan. I have heard this narrative from several quarters now.

During that period of attempted cover-up, the info was getting out anyway, and reporters have disclosed that the various intelligence agencies were on top of it all and knew it was happening. So maybe it's true to say that you and I didn't have adequate info by mid-Jan, people in power did. And the info got out fairly rapidly soon after.

What the Chinese government did was stupid but ineffective. Makes sense to be pissed off about it, but it is not THE critical act of the story, just one of them. The virus was going to get out, that's what they do.

The Chinese got the WHO involved on Dec 31.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 08, 2020, 10:37:32 am
You're hanging your hat on that Chinese lie a bit too much. There was a period of about a month from mid-December to about mid-January when they tried covering things up, and did not succeed ver well. They disciplined a doc or two, then eventually they changed their M.O. and reported to WHO. This is all well-documented. Before that, all they seemed to have was uncoordinated reports of a weird pneumonia in Wuhan. I have heard this narrative from several quarters now.

During that period of attempted cover-up, the info was getting out anyway, and reporters have disclosed that the various intelligence agencies were on top of it all and knew it was happening. So maybe it's true to say that you and I didn't have adequate info by mid-Jan, people in power did. And the info got out fairly rapidly soon after.

What the Chinese government did was stupid but ineffective. Makes sense to be pissed off about it, but it is not THE critical act of the story, just one of them. The virus was going to get out, that's what they do.
  First off Trump did stop Chinese from coming here on Jan 31 followed by stopping travelers from Europe and then GB.  It's true he didn't shut down the economy until later.  Read my last post for why.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 08, 2020, 10:38:11 am
This is just repeat info. We've read it all before. We know what you think.
We're up to page 26.  We're all repeating ourselves.  :)
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 08, 2020, 10:39:19 am
The Chinese got the WHO involved on Dec 31.

Sorry, too many dates in my head.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 08, 2020, 10:39:33 am
The Chinese got the WHO involved on Dec 31.
The Chinese lied and WHO covered for them.  A disgrace. A pox on both their houses.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 08, 2020, 10:41:09 am
  First off Trump did stop Chinese from coming here on Jan 31 followed by stopping travelers from Europe and then GB.  It's true he didn't shut down the economy until later.  Read my last post for why.

Many people have stated that stopping flights is not a minor factor in the contagion spread. It's an open world.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 08, 2020, 10:41:41 am
We're up to page 26.  We're all repeating ourselves.  :)

So let's stop the repeats. Easy to do.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on April 08, 2020, 10:43:04 am
The Chinese lied and WHO covered for them.  A disgrace. A pox on both their houses.

From Jan 1 forward, there was increasing more information from the WHO with facts on the virus. Some just refused to listen to these facts.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 08, 2020, 10:44:24 am
So let's stop the repeats. Easy to do.
Fine. I've asked about what we should do going forward?  You guys keep wanting to go back to attack Trump. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 08, 2020, 10:45:37 am
From Jan 1 forward, there was increasing more information from the WHO with facts on the virus. Some just refused to listen to these facts.
I'm taking Robert's advice and not going back to discuss the same thing over and over again.  We all made our points about what should have been done two months ago.  Time to move on.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on April 08, 2020, 10:57:50 am
I'm taking Robert's advice and not going back to discuss the same thing over and over again.  We all made our points about what should have been done two months ago.  Time to move on.

Just hoping going forward history does not repeat. Much rather err on staying locked down longer than opening up too soon and causing another mess.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 08, 2020, 11:18:32 am
Yes. How else would you decide things on issues you never experienced before? We all use our other experience in life to help us.  Unless you know a genie you call to get advice.

It was a rhetorical question.

These issues have been experienced before, in multiple times and ways. We had even action plans designed for this kind of disaster. It's just some lacked the vision to look beyond the next step. Some still do.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on April 08, 2020, 11:50:41 am
That's new news. It took a long time to sink in with people.  I was referring to what government should have done early one.  It was not as clear back then. Difficult choices did not seem so easy to pick. The CHinese were lying to us about the disease.  We didn't have all the facts yet.  That's what I was referring too.

What governments should have done was listen to the health experts and scientists of this subject, and implement measures sooner. Instead, some governments lost precious days in late Feb and early March going with their business as usual - election campaign in France with gatherings of a few thousand people, or public events in Spain with also gatherings of thousands of people.

UEFA still went on with Champions league matches, and only very reluctantly postponed Euro 2020.

These are just a few examples of what happens when you do not listen to the specialists.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 08, 2020, 12:03:44 pm
Just hoping going forward history does not repeat. Much rather err on staying locked down longer than opening up too soon and causing another mess.
Curious. What do you do for a living?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on April 08, 2020, 12:06:12 pm
Curious. What do you do for a living?

Retired. Was a product manager in an industrial automation company.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 08, 2020, 12:06:58 pm
It was a rhetorical question.

These issues have been experienced before, in multiple times and ways. We had even action plans designed for this kind of disaster. It's just some lacked the vision to look beyond the next step. Some still do.
You made that point numerous times.  What do we do now?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 08, 2020, 12:09:36 pm
Retired. Was a product manager in an industrial automation company.
Me too.  Well, if you were working and had to feed a family, you might a different opinion.  By the way, did you work for Siemens? I was in commercials HVAC temperature control automation with Johnson Controls as well as in my own company where I rep'd others. .
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on April 08, 2020, 12:14:55 pm
Me too.  Well, if you were working and had to feed a family, you might a different opinion.  By the way, did you work for Siemens? I was in commercials HVAC temperature control automation with Johnson Controls as well as in my own company where I rep'd others. .

No. I did a lot of work with a company that supplied products for Allen Bradley. My last position was with a company doing sawmill automation which was just amazing.

Don't know if you are familiar with PLC programming, but I managed the product Allen Bradley sells today.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on April 08, 2020, 12:22:33 pm
Fine. I've asked about what we should do going forward?  You guys keep wanting to go back to attack Trump.

Going forward:

1. Not all countries are on the same phase of the crisis. Those who were hit early are now slowly reopening and restarting some of their economic activity, namely some Asian countries and some European ones. They will have to implement immunity tests to evaluate who can go back to work or back to school, etc. They will have to monitor the situation very closely and be ready to reinstate quarantine as needed. It is going to be a start/stop process in terms of the public health problem.

2. Countries who are say 4 weeks late relative to China in terms of infection start, and who are now apparently past the peak- Spain, Italy, Austria, and others - will still have to live for weeks with many deaths (Spain, Italy) while slowly reopening. Spain is saying 26 April, Italy soon too. I mentioned Austria because it is a country about the same population of Portugal, and whose epidemic curves are similar. They will reopen slowly in 14 April.

3. Countries that are 8 weeks later than China, like Portugal, France, UK, etc, will reopen late and watch closely what is happening in the meantime in the countries that have opened by then. In Portugal, this slow reopening will probably happen mid-May. Already a lot of public events in the summer have been cancelled. This is good, because our health care service is fragile. Our government listens to specialists in health and economy very closely - there are numerous meetings that involve decision makers, scientists, economists, workers unions, company owners, everybody is working together with a common goal: survive this crisis as best as we can. Example: schools were only closed after measures were in place to pay 2/3 salary to the parents who needed to go home and stay with their kids. We did not want to send the kids home to stay with their grandparents - that was a time bomb in Italy. We could have closed schools 5 days earlier, but then the kids would have no one to take care of them, or would have to stay with their grandparents and risk infecting them.

4. Countries who reacted late regarding public health isolation measures, will have to live with a higher number of deaths - that is well known since 1918.

5. Countries in general will see a rise in unemployment rate and debt. They will tackle that differently.

6. Still going forward, countries need to prepare NOW for the second wave of the infection. The downside of flattening the curve now is that the level of immunity is very low. Some scientists estimate that level to be around 10% in Italy - this is still low compared to the required 60-70% - and that is a country that has suffered a lot. in Portugal, estimate is 0.1%. So of course all countries need to prepare for what will happen in a few months - testing for immunity, restricting movement and air traffic, and monitor very quickly. We have learned a lot by then, already did today, so there is a great opportunity for concerted efforts. For example, in the EU, countries will need to do integrated monitoring of the health situation, and have plans in place should the infection ramp up again in a second wave in counitres A, B, or C  - coordinate border closing, reduce plane travel, etc, as required. These plans will have to include economic incentives and measures to help affected businesses and people.

Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 08, 2020, 12:29:45 pm
No. I did a lot of work with a company that supplied products for Allen Bradley. My last position was with a company doing sawmill automation which was just amazing.

Don't know if you are familiar with PLC programming, but I managed the product Allen Bradley sells today.
I guess it's all similar to what I did years ago.  I used Allen Bradley back then for large circuit breaker panels.  I suppose the PLC integrated programmable control of lights and other motors used in industry to A-B's starters.  I did similar things except computer control of HVAC control: dampers, valves, on/off control PID (proportional, integral, derivative) mode of operation, but applied to commercial and institutional buildings and facilities rather than factories and industrial controls. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Slobodan Blagojevic on April 08, 2020, 12:34:55 pm
I guess it's all similar to what I did years ago...

You two, get a room ;)
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 08, 2020, 12:39:13 pm
Going forward:

1. Not all countries are on the same phase of the crisis. Those who were hit early are now slowly reopening and restarting some of their economic activity, namely some Asian countries and some European ones. They will have to implement immunity tests to evaluate who can go back to work or back to school, etc. They will have to monitor the situation very closely and be ready to reinstate quarantine as needed. It is going to be a start/stop process in terms of the public health problem.

2. Countries who are say 4 weeks late relative to China in terms of infection start, and who are now apparently past the peak- Spain, Italy, Austria, and others - will still have to live for weeks with many deaths (Spain, Italy) while slowly reopening. Spain is saying 26 April, Italy soon too. I mentioned Austria because it is a country about the same population of Portugal, and whose epidemic curves are similar. They will reopen slowly in 14 April.

3. Countries that are 8 weeks later than China, like Portugal, France, UK, etc, will reopen late and watch closely what is happening in the meantime in the countries that have opened by then. In Portugal, this slow reopening will probably happen mid-May. Already a lot of public events in the summer have been cancelled. This is good, because our health care service is fragile. Our government listens to specialists in health and economy very closely - there are numerous meetings that involve decision makers, scientists, economists, workers unions, company owners, everybody is working together with a common goal: survive this crisis as best as we can. Example: schools were only closed after measures were in place to pay 2/3 salary to the parents who needed to go home and stay with their kids. We did not want to send the kids home to stay with their grandparents - that was a time bomb in Italy. We could have closed schools 5 days earlier, but then the kids would have no one to take care of them, or would have to stay with their grandparents and risk infecting them.

4. Countries who reacted late regarding public health isolation measures, will have to live with a higher number of deaths - that is well known since 1918.

5. Countries in general will see a rise in unemployment rate and debt. They will tackle that differently.

6. Still going forward, countries need to prepare NOW for the second wave of the infection. The downside of flattening the curve now is that the level of immunity is very low. Some scientists estimate that level to be around 10% in Italy - this is still low compared to the required 60-70% - and that is a country that has suffered a lot. in Portugal, estimate is 0.1%. So of course all countries need to prepare for what will happen in a few months - testing for immunity, restricting movement and air traffic, and monitor very quickly. We have learned a lot by then, already did today, so there is a great opportunity for concerted efforts. For example, in the EU, countries will need to do integrated monitoring of the health situation, and have plans in place should the infection ramp up again in a second wave in counitres A, B, or C  - coordinate border closing, reduce plane travel, etc, as required. These plans will have to include economic incentives and measures to help affected businesses and people.


If there's a second stage, then those that waited may turn out better for them since more of their people have gotten infected.  Herd immunity will be better in those countries. They may recover faster than the early birds.  Don;t assume you have it all figured out.  History has a way of surprising us.  All the, I told you so's, may come back to haunt you.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 08, 2020, 12:49:55 pm
As you know I'm reviewing all the studies that are coming out.  One interesting line of research, and I stress this is all observational, is that countries where there is universal BCG vaccination appear to have fewer cases of SARS-CoV-2. there have been about a dozen papers on this topic. Here is a NY Times story on this topic that is pretty straight forward:  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/health/coronavirus-bcg-vaccine.html & Wikipedia:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BCG_vaccine  Whether is is just a data curiosity or something meaningful is difficult to assess right now.

Thank you for the link, Alan. 

" But evidence accumulating over the past decade suggests the vaccine also has so-called off-target effects, reducing viral illnesses, respiratory infections and sepsis, and appears to bolster the body’s immune system."

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/health/coronavirus-bcg-vaccine.html?auth=login-email&login=email
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Jeremy Roussak on April 08, 2020, 01:24:08 pm
See my earlier post #458.

Saw it. It doesn't undermine my point; it demonstrates that killing bacteria in the air around a group of mice reduces the overall pathogenicity of influenza virus. If it had any further application, one might have expected the last >70 years to have thrown it up. So far as I've read, superadded bacterial infection is not required for the coronavirus to be lethal.

Jeremy
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Jeremy Roussak on April 08, 2020, 01:27:17 pm
Fiberglass in your lungs can cause cancer like asbestos.

There is no evidence for that assertion.

Jeremy
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 08, 2020, 01:59:49 pm
There is no evidence for that assertion.

Jeremy
I wouldn't breathe fiberglass fibers floating around in the air. But what do I know?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Slobodan Blagojevic on April 08, 2020, 02:50:35 pm
To put things into geographic perspective:

Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 08, 2020, 04:08:56 pm
New York, New Jersey report record coronavirus deaths with many deaths not counted in the stats. Assuming an average of 150 uncounted deaths, this would add 4,500 deaths per month. Just in these 2 states.

Quote
New York Mayor Bill De Blasio estimated an undercount in the death toll of 100 to 200 people per day who are dying at home but excluded from the city’s rapidly growing tally. So far the city’s announced death toll has reflected only COVID-19 diagnoses confirmed in a laboratory.

More than 200 people are dying at home in New York City each day during the pandemic, up from 22 to 32 during the March 20 to April 5 period a year ago, according to city fire officials.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/new-york-new-jersey-report-record-coronavirus-deaths-fear-death-toll-undercounted-idUSKBN21Q204
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on April 08, 2020, 05:44:31 pm
New York, New Jersey report record coronavirus deaths with many deaths not counted in the stats. Assuming an average of 150 uncounted deaths, this would add 4,500 deaths per month. Just in these 2 states.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/new-york-new-jersey-report-record-coronavirus-deaths-fear-death-toll-undercounted-idUSKBN21Q204

The same thing is occurring in Italy where people that die at home are not tested and not tallied. Estimates of twice as many people have died from Covid as what is officially tallied. After all, why waste a Covid test on a dead person. I'm sure that same is occurring in many other countries.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 08, 2020, 06:26:38 pm
New York, New Jersey report record coronavirus deaths with many deaths not counted in the stats. Assuming an average of 150 uncounted deaths, this would add 4,500 deaths per month. Just in these 2 states.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/new-york-new-jersey-report-record-coronavirus-deaths-fear-death-toll-undercounted-idUSKBN21Q204
Fortunately, the predictions seem to be going down on the number of deaths anticipated overall.

DEATH TOLL PROJECTIONS
The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model lowered its projected U.S. death toll by 26%, to 60,000 from 80,000 by August 4. The model is one of several that the White House task force has cited.

The task force previously projected 100,000 to 240,000 Americans could die.

The institute also moved up its projected peak in the number to U.S. deaths to this Sunday, when it predicted 2,212 people will succumb to the disease. The revision moves forward the projected peak by four days, suggesting the strain on the country’s healthcare system will lessen sooner than previously expected.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/new-york-new-jersey-report-record-coronavirus-deaths-fear-death-toll-undercounted-idUSKBN21Q204
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: John Camp on April 08, 2020, 06:33:10 pm
They may be right, but I no longer trust that model. They change too radically in too short a time. There are several respectable models out there, and this is the one by far on the lowest end.

Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 08, 2020, 06:41:20 pm
They may be right, but I no longer trust that model. They change too radically in too short a time. There are several respectable models out there, and this is the one by far on the lowest end.


The prediction just makes the curve four days earlier for now.  That's not a huge change in time and therefore subsequent deaths.  Let's hope.  Things are getting testy at home here.  :)
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 08, 2020, 07:46:13 pm
Fortunately, the predictions seem to be going down on the number of deaths anticipated overall.

DEATH TOLL PROJECTIONS
The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model lowered its projected U.S. death toll by 26%, to 60,000 from 80,000 by August 4. The model is one of several that the White House task force has cited.

The task force previously projected 100,000 to 240,000 Americans could die.

The institute also moved up its projected peak in the number to U.S. deaths to this Sunday, when it predicted 2,212 people will succumb to the disease. The revision moves forward the projected peak by four days, suggesting the strain on the country’s healthcare system will lessen sooner than previously expected.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/new-york-new-jersey-report-record-coronavirus-deaths-fear-death-toll-undercounted-idUSKBN21Q204

There are several critiques of that model. It might still be right but currently it's the most optimistic of them.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 08, 2020, 09:27:46 pm
There are several critiques of that model. It might still be right but currently it's the most optimistic of them.
Since all these models are just that, models, final decisions about the next steps will be made by the administration based on actual statistics.  Let's hope things work out for the best.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on April 08, 2020, 09:39:27 pm
Since all these models are just that, models, final decisions about the next steps will be made by the administration based on actual statistics.  Let's hope things work out for the best.

Trouble is by the time you get actual statistics...you are too late...the damage is done. That is why we use models.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 08, 2020, 10:10:55 pm
Trouble is by the time you get actual statistics...you are too late...the damage is done. That is why we use models.
We're talking about re-opening the economy based on actual statistics rather than models.  That's a safer approach.  It's not more damaging but rather less damaging.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on April 08, 2020, 10:16:09 pm
We're talking about re-opening the economy based on actual statistics rather than models.  That's a safer approach.  It's not more damaging but rather less damaging.

What actual statistics are you talking about? The 2000 deaths a day we are on right now in the US? Or is it the lack of testing and keeping track of deaths in some of the states making the numbers look good. What statistics do your really trust?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 08, 2020, 11:04:44 pm
What actual statistics are you talking about? The 2000 deaths a day we are on right now in the US? Or is it the lack of testing and keeping track of deaths in some of the states making the numbers look good. What statistics do your really trust?
You're making a political statement.  I can't respond.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 08, 2020, 11:43:52 pm
Since all these models are just that, models, final decisions about the next steps will be made by the administration based on actual statistics.  Let's hope things work out for the best.

Funny! What do you think these models are?
I’ll help, they are also called statistical models. It’s just a more complex interpretation of the data.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_model
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 09, 2020, 01:00:11 am
Funny! What do you think these models are?
I’ll help, they are also called statistical models. It’s just a more complex interpretation of the data.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_model
Sorry if my point was confusing.  The earlier models predicting higher deaths have been superseded by more recent real-world statistics indicating that the actual deaths should be less. It's the later statistics and modelling that will be used to influence decisions when to open up the economy.   The medical issue is not as bad as previous modelling indicated.

Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 09, 2020, 01:45:11 am
Timeline for Covid-19 Fatalities By Country (average count for the last 7 days)

the horizontal axis show number of days after the 100th death
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 09, 2020, 03:13:22 am
Sorry if my point was confusing.  The earlier models predicting higher deaths have been superseded by more recent real-world statistics indicating that the actual deaths should be less. It's the later statistics and modelling that will be used to influence decisions when to open up the economy.   The medical issue is not as bad as previous modelling indicated.

Sadly, the actual deaths in USA are increasing. This could be due to more actual cases than reported cases. The more infections, the greater the death count. 

Quote
New York state, epicenter of America’s coronavirus crisis, set another single-day record of COVID-19 deaths on Wednesday, as veteran doctors and nurses voiced astonishment at the speed with which patients were deteriorating and dying.

Doctors and nurses say elderly patients and those with underlying health conditions are not the only ones who appear relatively well one moment and at death’s door the next. It happens to the young and healthy, too.
Patients “look fine, feel fine, then you turn around and they’re unresponsive,” said Diana Torres, a nurse at Mount Sinai Hospital in New York City, the center of the nation’s worst outbreak. “I’m paranoid, scared to walk out of their room.”

Nearly 430,000 cases of COVID-19, the highly infectious lung disease caused by the coronavirus, were confirmed in the United States as of Wednesday afternoon, including more than 14,700 deaths. For the second straight day the virus killed at least 1,900 in a 24-hour period. Cuomo said 779 people had died in the past day in his state. New Jersey reported 275 had died there. Both totals exceeded one-day records from just a day earlier.

Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Jeremy Roussak on April 09, 2020, 05:24:33 am
I wouldn't breathe fiberglass fibers floating around in the air. But what do I know?

Not very much, it seems. Your instant retreat from the falsity of your baseless assertion that inhaled fibreglass causes cancer to "I wouldn't breathe fibreglass fibres" is merely amusing.

Jeremy
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on April 09, 2020, 05:47:46 am
If there's a second stage, then those that waited may turn out better for them since more of their people have gotten infected.  Herd immunity will be better in those countries. They may recover faster than the early birds.  Don;t assume you have it all figured out.  History has a way of surprising us.  All the, I told you so's, may come back to haunt you.

No country will have acquired herd immunity, that requires 60-70% population to be infected. In Europe, the most affected countries so far, Italy and Spain, are at 10% at best. So, all countries will need to prepare for the second wave now. The second wave of the spanish flu was the most deadly, in 1919/1920.

No one has all figured out, but there are some measures that can be implemented, following common sense.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on April 09, 2020, 08:34:08 am
You're making a political statement.  I can't respond.

It's not political. I just want to understand your statistics.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on April 09, 2020, 09:14:16 am
Not very much, it seems. Your instant retreat from the falsity of your baseless assertion that inhaled fibreglass causes cancer to "I wouldn't breathe fibreglass fibres" is merely amusing.

Jeremy
No it does not cause cancer but there are a lot of occupational health papers on lung irritation and exacerbation of other lung disease symptoms. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on April 09, 2020, 09:18:48 am
No country will have acquired herd immunity, that requires 60-70% population to be infected. In Europe, the most affected countries so far, Italy and Spain, are at 10% at best. So, all countries will need to prepare for the second wave now. The second wave of the spanish flu was the most deadly, in 1919/1920.

No one has all figured out, but there are some measures that can be implemented, following common sense.
Without a validated serology test to look at a very large community exposure cohort, nobody can say for certain what the background level of infection is.  there have been "guesses" that infection rates are under counted by an order of magnitude or more.  I have seen reports that Germany is beginning to do community testing for antibodies but it appears limited right now.  If there is any one approach that can help solve this issue it's large scale testing.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on April 09, 2020, 09:21:59 am
I just finished my daily review of pre-prints and clinical trials for my daily newsletter.  I came across a very interesting Canadian vaccine trial (I you live in Vancouver, you might be eligible).  It uses a microorganism in yogurt to express the SARS-CoV-2 antigen and is taken orally.  Here is a link to the company website where this is described:  https://www.symvivo.com/covid-19  Very cool if it works!!
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 09, 2020, 10:28:58 am
Very interesting study of minimum distances between people when moving compared to standing still, https://medium.com/@jurgenthoelen/belgian-dutch-study-why-in-times-of-covid-19-you-can-not-walk-run-bike-close-to-each-other-a5df19c77d08 (https://medium.com/@jurgenthoelen/belgian-dutch-study-why-in-times-of-covid-19-you-can-not-walk-run-bike-close-to-each-other-a5df19c77d08). Bottom line, you need more distance during movement like walking, running, cycling. See articles for estimates of minimum distances under various conditions. Glad someone has addressed this. It ha been a concern for people in the cycling community.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 09, 2020, 10:46:34 am
I just wanted to make one off-topic aside. Isn't it interesting how our culture seems to highly value ball players, financial hucksters, scions of trust funds, and CEOs by rewarding them with nearly unprecedented levels of wealth but now we're suddenly scouring worldwide for the latest word from unknown researchers who in more normal times have to spend significant parts of their days begging for research grants. I enjoy watching videos of Messi dribbling the ball past 3 defenders and zipping it into the net for a goal. But right about now, I'd trade 10 Messis for one post-doc who finds a drug that kills Covid-19.

I know it's an unfair comparison, apples and oranges. I'm just saying that maybe our priorities may be slightly out of alignment with what matters. But people prefer to play than to work, I don't think that's going to change anytime soon.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 09, 2020, 12:05:21 pm
I just wanted to make one off-topic aside. Isn't it interesting how our culture seems to highly value ball players, financial hucksters, scions of trust funds, and CEOs by rewarding them with nearly unprecedented levels of wealth but now we're suddenly scouring worldwide for the latest word from unknown researchers who in more normal times have to spend significant parts of their days begging for research grants. I enjoy watching videos of Messi dribbling the ball past 3 defenders and zipping it into the net for a goal. But right about now, I'd trade 10 Messis for one post-doc who finds a drug that kills Covid-19.

I know it's an unfair comparison, apples and oranges. I'm just saying that maybe our priorities may be slightly out of alignment with what matters. But people prefer to play than to work, I don't think that's going to change anytime soon.

There was a theme I came across one of these days on the same idea. You pay C Ronaldo or Messi with more than 1 mil/month and yet now your are looking for answers to researchers payed less than 2k/month.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 09, 2020, 01:08:39 pm
Sadly, the actual deaths in USA are increasing. This could be due to more actual cases than reported cases. The more infections, the greater the death count. 

The latest models are showing that there will be less deaths than originally predicted when it's all over.  The current high rate currently is due to reaching the peak of the curve. The rate is coming down in NY as reported by Dr. Fauci.  Instead of the 100-200K it looks like 60K. Meanwhile I'm staying locked down in the house except for a run to get groceries this morning.   All pre-ordered stuff paid for beforehand.  A stock boy with mask and gloves came out with all the foods bagged and dropped in in the trunk of the SUV so I didn't have to handle it until I got home.  It was nice to get out.  Strange see all the stores closed for the most part and really light traffic.
https://www.npr.org/2020/04/09/830664814/fauci-says-u-s-coronavirus-deaths-may-be-more-like-60-000-antibody-tests-on-way
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: elliot_n on April 09, 2020, 01:21:45 pm
The 60,000 death toll estimate is based on 'full social distancing through May 2020'.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 09, 2020, 01:31:18 pm
Not very much, it seems. Your instant retreat from the falsity of your baseless assertion that inhaled fibreglass causes cancer to "I wouldn't breathe fibreglass fibres" is merely amusing.

Jeremy
It's true I can't find studies proving the danger except for one I saw with some doubt that it isn't safe.  But there's no way I'd breath anywhere around where fiberglass could be airborne in little pieces like from insulation unless I was wearing a ventilator mask. It's just asking for trouble otherwise.  Non-dissolvable fibers in my lungs doesn't seem like a good idea regardless of what the studies say.  They're the same people who once said asbestos wasn't dangerous.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: elliot_n on April 09, 2020, 01:34:24 pm
Also, the 60,00 death toll is just for the first wave, which will be over by July.

From the site's FAQs:

Why do your estimates only go until July? Does that mean the outbreak will be over then?

Our model says that social distancing will likely lead to the end of the first wave of the epidemic by early June. The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By end the of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease, so avoiding reintroduction of COVID-19 through mass screening, contact tracing, and quarantine will be essential to avoid a second wave.


http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 09, 2020, 01:40:51 pm
I just finished my daily review of pre-prints and clinical trials for my daily newsletter.  I came across a very interesting Canadian vaccine trial (I you live in Vancouver, you might be eligible).  It uses a microorganism in yogurt to express the SARS-CoV-2 antigen and is taken orally.  Here is a link to the company website where this is described:  https://www.symvivo.com/covid-19  Very cool if it works!!
I just finished yogurt for lunch.  I feel healthier already.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 09, 2020, 01:44:48 pm
I just wanted to make one off-topic aside. Isn't it interesting how our culture seems to highly value ball players, financial hucksters, scions of trust funds, and CEOs by rewarding them with nearly unprecedented levels of wealth but now we're suddenly scouring worldwide for the latest word from unknown researchers who in more normal times have to spend significant parts of their days begging for research grants. I enjoy watching videos of Messi dribbling the ball past 3 defenders and zipping it into the net for a goal. But right about now, I'd trade 10 Messis for one post-doc who finds a drug that kills Covid-19.

I know it's an unfair comparison, apples and oranges. I'm just saying that maybe our priorities may be slightly out of alignment with what matters. But people prefer to play than to work, I don't think that's going to change anytime soon.
Cost of labor is based on scarcity.  There are fewer good dribblers than scientists. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 09, 2020, 01:47:12 pm
Also, the 60,00 death toll is just for the first wave, which will be over by July.

From the site's FAQs:

Why do your estimates only go until July? Does that mean the outbreak will be over then?

Our model says that social distancing will likely lead to the end of the first wave of the epidemic by early June. The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By end the of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease, so avoiding reintroduction of COVID-19 through mass screening, contact tracing, and quarantine will be essential to avoid a second wave.


http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs
So it's either get screwed now or get screwed later.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: elliot_n on April 09, 2020, 02:00:46 pm
So it's either get screwed now or get screwed later.

Yes, everything's changed.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 09, 2020, 02:10:19 pm
Cost of labor is based on scarcity.  There are fewer good dribblers than scientists.

Not really. Fewer that make it to the top. All have a Bell distribution curve. If you look a scarcity only and not also at the value of the service, you have some serious issues ahead.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: John Camp on April 09, 2020, 02:11:05 pm
So it's either get screwed now or get screwed later.

Yes, but you're more screwed now if you can't get into a hospital. If you're screwed later, when the rate is lower, you might get into one where they'll stick a ventilator down your throat until you die.

I'm getting tired of reading about all these possible treatments and vaccines that "could be ready in a year to eighteen months." We need one sooner than that, and media reports were saying "a year to eighteen months" three months ago. Why aren't they now saying, "nine to fifteen months," having subtracted the three we've already gone through?

Whatever happened to that hydroxychloroquine trial that was supposed to be going on in New York. Haven't heard a thing about that, lately. Was that a chimera?

I bought a new guitar, by mail order. It'll probably give me the covid virus, and I'll croak and my wife will never get her money back on it. That's one consoling thought, anyway.



 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 09, 2020, 02:23:02 pm
Earliest estimates I've seen for vaccines are early 2021.

The data for hydroxychloroquine is yet to come, good data is not easy to obtain.

There are treatment options being trialed now, one with immediate impact is with plasma from survivors (it contains antibodies against the virus).
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: John Camp on April 09, 2020, 03:00:45 pm
Earliest estimates I've seen for vaccines are early 2021.

The data for hydroxychloroquine is yet to come, good data is not easy to obtain.

There are treatment options being trialed now, one with immediate impact is with plasma from survivors (it contains antibodies against the virus).

I've heard that the plasma treatment is known to work, but its scope is limited -- there are only a couple of treatments available from each plasma draw from a donor., and of course, you have to track down donors, make sure there are no live virus in the draw, etc. We need pills. I understand that it now appears that remdesivir may not help much.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 09, 2020, 03:18:24 pm
Well, most patients get well on their own. So the ratio of survivors to sick patients would be good enough to help the most critical patients. But again, it's still in the trial phase.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on April 09, 2020, 05:04:59 pm
I've heard that the plasma treatment is known to work, but its scope is limited -- there are only a couple of treatments available from each plasma draw from a donor., and of course, you have to track down donors, make sure there are no live virus in the draw, etc. We need pills. I understand that it now appears that remdesivir may not help much.
The amount of plasma needed to treat all the people who need it is extremely large.  Processing is not the issue as the technology to isolate neutralizing antibodies from sera is straight forward.  The more appropriate way to go is through the isolation of monoclonal antibodies that can be grown in cell culture at large scale.  There are some companies doing this R&D right now (Regeneron is one that I know very well) and there was a pre-print I read this morning that an especially promising antibody that binds tightly to the surface of the virus has been characterized. 

the problem with remdisivier is that it has to be given IV; we really need an oral medicine that can be given early on when symptoms are identified so that it better helps patients at risk.  I've not seen any data that points to an obvious drug right now.  The problem is the clinical trial apparatus is spending way too much time and energy looking at hydroxychloroquine when they need to be trials on any thing that shows good in vitro inhibition.  I also saw a Pfizer release that they have a good candidate.  Unfortunately, it's never been tried in humans so there is no preliminary safety data as there is for all the FDA approved drugs.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on April 09, 2020, 05:10:58 pm


Whatever happened to that hydroxychloroquine trial that was supposed to be going on in New York. Haven't heard a thing about that, lately. Was that a chimera?

World wide there are so many hydroxychloroquine trials going on I've lost count.  I would caution that this is not a wonder drug.  The reported trials to date have been all over the place and some of them were of very poor quality.  The 1/2 life of hydroxychloquine in your body is 22 days!!  this is why the dose for malaria control is so low; the damn stuff hangs around.  It also causes fatal cardiac arrythmias in susceptible individuals.  When my daughter went to Ghana some years ago for a summer music program we refused to allow the use of this drug, opting for a safer alternative and telling her to make sure she used her bed net.  She was in Ghana for six weeks and came back just fine.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 09, 2020, 05:16:09 pm
World wide there are so many hydroxychloroquine trials going on I've lost count.  I would caution that this is not a wonder drug.  The reported trials to date have been all over the place and some of them were of very poor quality.  The 1/2 life of hydroxychloquine in your body is 22 days!!  this is why the dose for malaria control is so low; the damn stuff hangs around.  It also causes fatal cardiac arrythmias in susceptible individuals.  When my daughter went to Ghana some years ago for a summer music program we refused to allow the use of this drug, opting for a safer alternative and telling her to make sure she used her bed net.  She was in Ghana for six weeks and came back just fine.

Who wanted her to use chloroquine for Ghana?
The main reason why it's rarely used for malaria is the attached map.
And this: https://www.cdc.gov/malaria/travelers/country_table/g.html
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on April 10, 2020, 04:08:26 am
There was a theme I came across one of these days on the same idea. You pay C Ronaldo or Messi with more than 1 mil/month and yet now your are looking for answers to researchers payed less than 2k/month.

We need every one, for a normal society to function. Are some salaries exagerated, and others below what they should be? Yes. But Ronaldo and Messi are not payed by governments, clubs decide how much to pay them, it's market at work.

In Portugal, a lot of reserachers that are coming with innovative ideas and good work are working for many years in a precarious situation in several research institutes. I hope they are more recognized after this.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 10, 2020, 07:41:54 am
We need every one, for a normal society to function. Are some salaries exagerated, and others below what they should be? Yes. But Ronaldo and Messi are not payed by governments, clubs decide how much to pay them, it's market at work.

This risks going off the topic of the thread. Of course you are correct and I don't begrudge the money Messi makes. He sacrificed years of his life and his career will be short compared to most working lives, and I congratulate him for cashing in when he can. My commentary was more about what the culture chooses to value. When it comes to recognition of science, I'm not an optimist. The boffin caricature still exist in pop culture, but then so do other caricatures. Luckily scientific subject matter is interesting in and of itself so will always attract practitioners. Anyway, there are worse inequities. Everyone is grateful for the drivers who deliver goods to our homes right now, some even get thanks and applause. We'll see how long that lasts, my guess is right up until they ask for a raise.

Yesterday's numbers and graphs on Worldometer seem to show a plateauing in many countries, that is, no decrease yet. Maybe this is not so surprising when it comes to number of new cases, maybe those numbers are higher because there's more testing. But deaths are remaining steady. The USA has been hovering close to 2000 deaths per day for 3 days. Focussing on day to day changes may too fine a granularity however. Many jurisdictions are giving signals about relaxing restrictions, which seems premature to me, but someone has to be first. Everyone else will be watching closely at the results.

Is it still general feeling still that we are asymptotically approaching 1% death rate overall or is it too early to call?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 10, 2020, 01:35:48 pm
Each country is taking different measures to face the health crisis and the ensuing economic crisis. EU moves at a slower pace, but something will be done to cater for the economy of the affected countries. In Portugal, where the large part of the economic structure is made of small companies, the problem is a short one - there is no money to pay salaries because there is no income. So the gov. has implemented a program of lay off, people go home temporarily and receive 2/3 of their monthly salary. Credit lines have also been opened to keep companies afloat. At the end of the day, the EU will have to come up with a concerted approach, otherwise it will be deemed as useless.

So yes, unemployment will go up, country debts will go up (Portugal's debt is 120% of GIP), but we will survive. I think it will be become clear in the coming weeks how policy makers will react, but the signs are out already. As for young people, they will survive too and adapt. Right now, I see a lot of young people who can not mourn their dead family members.

IMO, health comes first, and the economic balance will fall in naturally after that.
Today's news show 500 billion Euros to help.  But German and other countries are refusing to pay for bonds like I said in a previous post. They're going to issue bonds, termed corona bonds.  A perfect name that will mean the end of the EU currency.  "German Chancellor Angela Merkel, backed by the leaders of Austria and the Netherlands, have said no. They have long opposed the issuance of debt at the EU level for fear that it would effectively mean their taxpayers are underwriting spending by poorer member states."  Well, Germans aren;t Italians even if they're all Europeans. 

""A perceived lack of solidarity in the worst peacetime crisis in living memory could be dynamite for the longer-term cohesion of the eurozone and the European Union," they wrote after the deal was announced."

Of course, America won't be helping because we'll be in our own recession and not buying as many European products.  Heck, we're still looking for toilet paper. What a mess.

"Europe has a rescue package. But who's going to pay for its coronavirus recovery?"
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/10/business/europe-coronavirus-stimulus/index.html
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 10, 2020, 01:44:21 pm
 
Not really. Fewer that make it to the top. All have a Bell distribution curve. If you look a scarcity only and not also at the value of the service, you have some serious issues ahead.
Well, good dribblers have more value to the team than do mosts scientists have to their companies.  They earn more money for it.  How much money would you pay the dribbler if he quit his job and went to work for Pfizer as a scientist?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 10, 2020, 01:51:44 pm
Today's news show 500 billion Euros to help.  But German and other countries are refusing to pay for bonds like I said in a previous post. They're going to issue bonds, termed corona bonds.  A perfect name that will mean the end of the EU currency.  "German Chancellor Angela Merkel, backed by the leaders of Austria and the Netherlands, have said no. They have long opposed the issuance of debt at the EU level for fear that it would effectively mean their taxpayers are underwriting spending by poorer member states."  Well, Germans aren;t Italians even if they're all Europeans. 

""A perceived lack of solidarity in the worst peacetime crisis in living memory could be dynamite for the longer-term cohesion of the eurozone and the European Union," they wrote after the deal was announced."

Of course, America won't be helping because we'll be in our own recession and not buying as many European products.  Heck, we're still looking for toilet paper. What a mess.

"Europe has a rescue package. But who's going to pay for its coronavirus recovery?"
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/10/business/europe-coronavirus-stimulus/index.html
Bart, why are you saying "no"?  I thought you were for the European Union?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on April 10, 2020, 03:04:23 pm
Well, good dribblers have more value to the team than do mosts scientists have to their companies.  They earn more money for it.  How much money would you pay the dribbler if he quit his job and went to work for Pfizer as a scientist?

Oh I don't know about that. Scientist create new drugs that make billions for their companies. Scientists design new cars that make billions for their companies. Architects design new building that make billions for their companies.

I personally think sports figures are way over paid and to make up for this overpayment, you and I need to shell out big bucks just to watch a game.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 10, 2020, 04:14:41 pm
Oh I don't know about that. Scientist create new drugs that make billions for their companies. Scientists design new cars that make billions for their companies. Architects design new building that make billions for their companies.

I personally think sports figures are way over paid and to make up for this overpayment, you and I need to shell out big bucks just to watch a game.

Only top scientists and top architects.  And they are rewarded over other scientists and architects just like the better dribblers are.  If a scientist doesn't like his pay, let him practice dribbling.   

Only an employer can know what a employee is worth to him.  If they paid all their 1000 scientist as much as  the best dribblers, they'd be out of business in a week since they could charge enough to offset their salaries. Also, the scientist doesn't have to take the job if he feels he's worth more. No one is twisting his arm.  There's no way for you or the government to know what a person is worth in dollars.  It's not a moral decision. It's based solely on economic value after all you're talking about salary, which is money.  In any case, the free market decides.  In Cuba, doctors make about $30 a day as decided by the government.  Do you think that is fair?

Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: John Camp on April 10, 2020, 04:28:06 pm
Oh I don't know about that. Scientist create new drugs that make billions for their companies. Scientists design new cars that make billions for their companies. Architects design new building that make billions for their companies.

I personally think sports figures are way over paid and to make up for this overpayment, you and I need to shell out big bucks just to watch a game.

Why are they overpaid? Would you be happy if your income was artificially reduced by some kind of government fiat so the people could get your services more cheaply? Sports figures sell tickets. Tickets generate cash. At one time, almost all the cash went to the billionaires ho owned the teams, but then sports unions were formed, and the players started to get serious money. Sports figures are simply entertainers, like movie stars, and they sell tickets. If you don't want to buy a ticket, you don't have to. It's no different than money generated by movie stars, whose basic function is to sell tickets.

This argument is most often heard about teachers -- but the fact is teaching is probably the easiest of the professions to get into, and requires the least amount of training (aside, perhaps, from the ministry.) (And understand that I'm distinguishing between professions and trades.) But why shouldn't a great teacher be paid as much as a great basketball player? Because the teacher isn't selling tickets, and had chosen to join a low-risk, good-reward profession.

I say jocks, and artists, and entrepreneurs should be able to get what the market will pay them. And if the market won't pay them anything, well, tough shit.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 10, 2020, 04:50:35 pm
Why are they overpaid? Would you be happy if your income was artificially reduced by some kind of government fiat so the people could get your services more cheaply? Sports figures sell tickets. Tickets generate cash. At one time, almost all the cash went to the billionaires ho owned the teams, but then sports unions were formed, and the players started to get serious money. Sports figures are simply entertainers, like movie stars, and they sell tickets. If you don't want to buy a ticket, you don't have to. It's no different than money generated by movie stars, whose basic function is to sell tickets.

This argument is most often heard about teachers -- but the fact is teaching is probably the easiest of the professions to get into, and requires the least amount of training (aside, perhaps, from the ministry.) (And understand that I'm distinguishing between professions and trades.) But why shouldn't a great teacher be paid as much as a great basketball player? Because the teacher isn't selling tickets, and had chosen to join a low-risk, good-reward profession.

I say jocks, and artists, and entrepreneurs should be able to get what the market will pay them. And if the market won't pay them anything, well, tough shit.

I'm kind of sorry that I brought this up by making that offhand comment earlier. I don't have anything against artists, sports figures, etc. raking it in. The money is there, why shouldn't they get a piece of the action. My wife is an artist and I think artists should make a lot more than they do. My original comment was only to bemoan the fact that our culture seems to value things inappropriately, but there's no big spreadsheet in the sky with all the correct formulas in it.




Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 10, 2020, 07:06:16 pm
I'm kind of sorry that I brought this up by making that offhand comment earlier. I don't have anything against artists, sports figures, etc. raking it in. The money is there, why shouldn't they get a piece of the action. My wife is an artist and I think artists should make a lot more than they do. My original comment was only to bemoan the fact that our culture seems to value things inappropriately, but there's no big spreadsheet in the sky with all the correct formulas in it.





The issue is what do you mean by value?  The moment you put a price on it from either the payer's or the receiver's side, it becomes an economic value.  Economic value is not equated with moral or ethical value.  The two are different. Things of spiritual, moral and ethical value cannot be bought.  They have no monetary value.  Only services and products are bought and sold.  Their economic values are determined by the market.

Also, who could determine which has greater value even from the standpoint of the market?  Does a scientist working for 3M developing new glues have more value than a billionaire like Bloomberg who's developed a business that gives jobs to tens of thousands of people and help put food on the table for thousands more? Does a ball player who entertains millions of people and lifts their spirits during a virus outbreak deserve less than a teacher who instructs 100 children during a year?  God gave everyone value.  Who are we to decide that one person is more valuable than another when God loves us all and see us equally in His eyes?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: John Camp on April 10, 2020, 07:14:51 pm
I'm kind of sorry that I brought this up by making that offhand comment earlier. I don't have anything against artists, sports figures, etc. raking it in. The money is there, why shouldn't they get a piece of the action. My wife is an artist and I think artists should make a lot more than they do. My original comment was only to bemoan the fact that our culture seems to value things inappropriately, but there's no big spreadsheet in the sky with all the correct formulas in it.

Don't regret it, it's an interesting discussion compared to some of the bullshit posted on this thread. In any case, I don't see why paying millions to sports figures is an inappropriate value, because I think "inappropriate" would basically apply to cheating or criminal activity. The Trump family tax cheating, for example, on which Trump's fortune is based. Totally inappropriate, and probably criminal, although the statute of limitations has run out on the criminal side. A great athlete, on the other hand, has probably spent thousands of hours honing his talent, to do that one thing, and people will pay money to see him do it. Fine with me, nobody is holding a gun to the ticket-buyers' head, and I don't spend more than about two hours a year watching sports and if pressed, couldn't name a single current baseball player. The only reason I know who Steph Curry is, I was watching a TV in a sidewalk Indian restaurant in LA and the sportscasters kept talking about "Curry," and I thought, "Hey, I'm eating some, and it's quite good." As far as artists are concerned, I think most of them make about what their art's worth, until you get fairly high up, when it becomes a con game used to separate philistines from their ill-gotten gains, which seems mildly funny to me, but not totally inappropriate. Besides, if Alan knows what he's talking about, and I'm uncertain about that, all that cash is going to turn into toilet paper anyway. God knows we need the toilet paper.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on April 10, 2020, 07:29:02 pm
The issue is what do you mean by value?  The moment you put a price on it from either the payer's or the receiver's side, it becomes an economic value.  Economic value is not equated with moral or ethical value.  The two are different. Things of spiritual, moral and ethical value cannot be bought.  They have no monetary value.  Only services and products are bought and sold.  Their economic values are determined by the market.

Also, who could determine which has greater value even from the standpoint of the market?  Does a scientist working for 3M developing new glues have more value than a billionaire like Bloomberg who's developed a business that gives jobs to tens of thousands of people and help put food on the table for thousands more? Does a ball player who entertains millions of people and lifts their spirits during a virus outbreak deserve less than a teacher who instructs 100 children during a year?  God gave everyone value.  Who are we to decide that one person is more valuable than another when God loves us all and see us equally in His eyes?

I can tell you this much...when you are in emergency being kept alive by drugs developed by that scientist...the last thing of value on your mind will be that baseball player that strikes out way more often than hits a home run...but still manages to pull in $10m a year...plus another $50m / year advertising some made in China runners.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 10, 2020, 07:45:11 pm
I can tell you this much...when you are in emergency being kept alive by drugs developed by that scientist...the last thing of value on your mind will be that baseball player that strikes out way more often than hits a home run...but still manages to pull in $10m a year...plus another $50m / year advertising some made in China runners.
So on my deathbed, I'm going to be thinking how glad I am that the doctor is making more treating me?  Maybe if he was making less I'd feel he was more dedicated to my health than just working to get a big paycheck.  In any case in America, most doctors do pretty well for themselves.  Compare that to Cuba where the government says they're only worth $30 a day.  I'll take the free market. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on April 10, 2020, 07:57:45 pm
So on my deathbed, I'm going to be thinking how glad I am that the doctor is making more treating me?  Maybe if he was making less I'd feel he was more dedicated to my health than just working to get a big paycheck.  In any case in America, most doctors do pretty well for themselves.  Compare that to Cuba where the government says they're only worth $30 a day.  I'll take the free market.

I'm not talking about the doctor, I'm talking about the scientist making 60k that developed the drugs keeping you alive.

As far as Cuba goes...have you been there. I judge a countries quality of life by how much joy the people have every day. I've been to Cuba 8 times over the last 10 years, spent plenty of time imbedded with Cuban families and I can tell you, they enjoy life there. Much more so than the people I got to spend time with in the southern USA.

A good friend of mine and coworker has to keep working ( he's 71 now) in order to have his insurance pay for his wife's drugs. The guy needs two knew replacements, barely walks but cannot afford it as the wife's drugs take up all his works insurance.

In Cuba...all that is free for each citizen. Same with education...everyone has post secondary education. Cuba is one of the highest literate nation in the world.

I cut my finger in Cuba and ended up in emergency for stitches. Fast and free...Doctor even apologized for the cut ruining my vacation. Had a tooth cap come off once in Atlanta. Walked into the dentist...first thing they wanted before my name was my credit card.

Alan...there is more to life than money.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 10, 2020, 08:13:52 pm
I'm not talking about the doctor, I'm talking about the scientist making 60k that developed the drugs keeping you alive.

As far as Cuba goes...have you been there. I judge a countries quality of life by how much joy the people have every day. I've been to Cuba 8 times over the last 10 years, spent plenty of time imbedded with Cuban families and I can tell you, they enjoy life there. Much more so than the people I got to spend time with in the southern USA.

A good friend of mine and coworker has to keep working ( he's 71 now) in order to have his insurance pay for his wife's drugs. The guy needs two knew replacements, barely walks but cannot afford it as the wife's drugs take up all his works insurance.

In Cuba...all that is free for each citizen. Same with education...everyone has post secondary education. Cuba is one of the highest literate nation in the world.

I cut my finger in Cuba and ended up in emergency for stitches. Fast and free...Doctor even apologized for the cut ruining my vacation. Had a tooth cap come off once in Atlanta. Walked into the dentist...first thing they wanted before my name was my credit card.

Alan...there is more to life than money.
What good is literacy when you're not free to read what you want? And if you read what you're not suppose to, the government goons break your legs.  But that's OK because they'll send you to the hospital where they'll stitch you up for free. 

Yes.  There's more to life than money.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: faberryman on April 10, 2020, 08:21:33 pm
What good is literacy when you're not free to read what you want? And if you read what you're not suppose to, the government goons break your legs.  But that's OK because they'll send you to the hospital where they'll stitch you up for free. 

Yes.  There's more to life than money.
This is the no politics thread.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 10, 2020, 08:41:39 pm
Too confusing.  Two too many threads.  :)
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 10, 2020, 08:43:23 pm
OK, boys - one small light on the horizon:

The Times (UK) reporting that a vaccine against coronavirus could be ready as soon as September.
Quote
Sarah Gilbert, professor of vaccinology at Oxford University, told The Times she was “80 per cent confident” that the vaccine being developed by her team would work, with human trials due to begin in the next fortnight.

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/news/coronavirus-vaccine-could-be-ready-by-september-flmwl257x
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on April 10, 2020, 09:03:42 pm
What good is literacy when you're not free to read what you want? And if you read what you're not suppose to, the government goons break your legs.  But that's OK because they'll send you to the hospital where they'll stitch you up for free. 

Yes.  There's more to life than money.

Is this your personal experience or the highly influenced USA version? Yeh...totally free to read whatever your government wants you to read.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: John Camp on April 10, 2020, 09:20:45 pm
A UK scientist at Oxford says her group is beginning human testing of a vaccine that she says she is 80% certain that it will work against the corona virus. I looked her up and she has quite the virus-developing history, and seems very much legit. The UK government has been talking about providing several tens of millions of dollars to begin manufacturing of the vaccine in advance of final trials, so that if it turns out to be safe and effective, it would be available immediately up the end of trials. She says if it works as she believes it will, it could become available in September. I would fly to the UK to get it.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on April 10, 2020, 09:24:42 pm
A UK scientist at Oxford says her group is beginning human testing of a vaccine that she says she is 80% certain that it will work against the corona virus. I looked her up and she has quite the virus-developing history, and seems very much legit. The UK government has been talking about providing several tens of millions of dollars to begin manufacturing of the vaccine in advance of final trials, so that if it turns out to be safe and effective, it would be available immediately up the end of trials. She says if it works as she believes it will, it could become available in September. I would fly to the UK to get it.

Sorry...no fly zone from us to uk.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 10, 2020, 09:36:25 pm
OTOH, I came across this depressing story out of South Korea about re-infection, or maybe re-lapsed https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/south-korea-coronavirus-covid19-reactivated-positive-1.5529066 (https://www.cbc.ca/news/world/south-korea-coronavirus-covid19-reactivated-positive-1.5529066).

I hope this is testing errors. People are sort of counting on post-infection immunity.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 10, 2020, 10:45:19 pm
I’m guessing that Alan Goldhammer could post updated info on this.

The Oxford vaccine, known as ChAdOx1, is not the only one at a hopeful stage. There are at least another five frontrunners including two US ones - one researched by Moderna (mRNA-1273), another by Inovio (funded by the Bill Gates’ foundation) and at least two in Germany.

I’m guessing that for her to be 80% confident indicates that its worked on the ferrets and macaques and they’ll soon be testing it on humans. Alan ?


Let's not get ahead of ourselves.  Every researcher is coming out with their theory of how they can develop a vaccine.  There's billions of dollars being made available and everyone wants to get their grants.  Here's America's NIH National Institutes of Health emergency programs.
https://grants.nih.gov/policy/natural-disasters/corona-virus.htm
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: John Camp on April 10, 2020, 11:12:23 pm
The Times' story on the Oxford vaccine is behind a paywall. Here's a longer one from the Daily Mail.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8209523/Oxford-expert-Coronavirus-vaccine-ready-September-80-likelihood-work.html

This woman has a really good history, but the main thing is SEPTEMBER. And it won't be no-fly in September, unless we're in the middle of the second wave, which we could be.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: PeterAit on April 11, 2020, 10:58:08 am
As if we needed more bad news. It seems the federal government's covid-19 death count is omitting the many many deaths that occurred in nursing homes. Not intentionally, AFAIK, just due to a lack of reporting. And, NY City's death count includes only those who died in hospitals, yet emergency workers report removing "hundreds" of bodies from homes every day.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on April 11, 2020, 11:20:20 am
As if we needed more bad news. It seems the federal government's covid-19 death count is omitting the many many deaths that occurred in nursing homes. Not intentionally, AFAIK, just due to a lack of reporting. And, NY City's death count includes only those who died in hospitals, yet emergency workers report removing "hundreds" of bodies from homes every day.

We'll never know the true counts...other than its quite a bit higher than the official counts.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Craig Lamson on April 11, 2020, 11:28:20 am
We'll never know the true counts...other than its quite a bit higher than the official counts.

Yea, the hospitals are being paid by the government for covid19 cases.  So if someone dies of heart failure and they can say they had the virus, its a Covid 19 case and they get paid.  Brix said just the other day they are being quite liberal in what they call covid 19 deaths.  So yea the numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt , on both sides of the figures.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on April 11, 2020, 11:36:04 am
Yea, the hospitals are being paid by the government for covid19 cases.  So if someone dies of heart failure and they can say they had the virus, its a Covid 19 case and they get paid.  Brix said just the other day they are being quite liberal in what they call covid 19 deaths.  So yea the numbers need to be taken with a grain of salt , on both sides of the figures.

You think so? I've seen enough medical resources say otherwise...they are totally swamped with Covid deaths. These medical personnel surely must know.

If you want to think the actual numbers are less than being reported, I guess you can...but I don't live in your rose coloured glass world. My thinking is we have way more cases of Covid caused deaths than what is reported. I highly doubt a person that dies out of the hospital would be tested for Covid given we still have a lack of testing going on on live people.

And yes, there will be deaths as a result of Covid overrunning the medical system from things like heart attacks which Covid has indirectly contributed to which are also not counted.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Craig Lamson on April 11, 2020, 11:49:24 am
You think so? I've seen enough medical resources say otherwise...they are totally swamped with Covid deaths. These medical personnel surely must know.

If you want to think the actual numbers are less than being reported, I guess you can...but I don't live in your rose coloured glass world. My thinking is we have way more cases of Covid caused deaths than what is reported. I highly doubt a person that dies out of the hospital would be tested for Covid given we still have a lack of testing going on on live people.

And yes, there will be deaths as a result of Covid overrunning the medical system from things like heart attacks which Covid has indirectly contributed to which are also not counted.

My point was, which seem to whoosh right over your head, is that the numbers can be suspect on both sides.  The hospitals do have a financial incentive in listing a death as Covid 19. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: faberryman on April 11, 2020, 01:03:09 pm
My point was, which seem to whoosh right over your head, is that the numbers can be suspect on both sides.  The hospitals do have a financial incentive in listing a death as Covid 19.
I am sure that is true for uninsured patients. I don't know whether private insurance or Medicare would pay more for treatment of the actual cause of death than COVID-19 reimbursment. Probably depends.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on April 11, 2020, 01:17:21 pm
My point was, which seem to whoosh right over your head, is that the numbers can be suspect on both sides.  The hospitals do have a financial incentive in listing a death as Covid 19.

Seems like you just have a hard time being civil...enough of your whoosh bullshit.

Here are a couple statements that point towards under recording of actual Covid deaths.

"According to Levine, the number of deaths at home in New York City has grown 10-fold since the end of last week, even as hospitalizations for trauma and other emergencies have dropped to nearly nothing.

"Normally we have 20 to 25 deaths at home and now we are at 200 to 215,” Levine said, explaining that coronavirus would likely be the only way to explain such a spike.

Mayor Bill de Blasio said Tuesday he assumed the “vast majority” of the recent at-home deaths are coronavirus-related."


And in Italy

"In Nembro the almost deserted streets, the absent traffic, a strange silence is sometimes interrupted by the siren of an ambulance that carries with it the anxiety and worry that fill the hearts of all in these weeks. In Nembro every member of the community continuously receives news that he never wanted to hear, every day we lose people who were part of our lives and our community. Nembro, in the province of Bergamo, is the municipality most affected by Covid-19 in relation to the population. We do not know exactly how many people have been infected, but we know that the number of deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 is 31. We are two physicists: one who became an entrepreneur in the health sector, the other a mayor, in close contact with a very cohesive territory, where we know each other very well. We noticed that something in these official numbers did not come back right, and we decided - together - to check. We looked at the average of the deaths in the municipality of previous years, in the period January - March. Nembro should have had - under normal conditions - about 35 deaths. 158 people were registered dead this year by the municipal offices. That is 123 more than the average. Not 31 more, as it should have been according to the official numbers of the coronavirus epidemic."

Any actual data that backs up your view of the corrupt medical system forging Covid-19'deaths for money?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Craig Lamson on April 11, 2020, 01:43:29 pm
Seems like you just have a hard time being civil...enough of your whoosh bullshit.

Here are a couple statements that point towards under recording of actual Covid deaths.

"According to Levine, the number of deaths at home in New York City has grown 10-fold since the end of last week, even as hospitalizations for trauma and other emergencies have dropped to nearly nothing.

"Normally we have 20 to 25 deaths at home and now we are at 200 to 215,” Levine said, explaining that coronavirus would likely be the only way to explain such a spike.

Mayor Bill de Blasio said Tuesday he assumed the “vast majority” of the recent at-home deaths are coronavirus-related."


And in Italy

"In Nembro the almost deserted streets, the absent traffic, a strange silence is sometimes interrupted by the siren of an ambulance that carries with it the anxiety and worry that fill the hearts of all in these weeks. In Nembro every member of the community continuously receives news that he never wanted to hear, every day we lose people who were part of our lives and our community. Nembro, in the province of Bergamo, is the municipality most affected by Covid-19 in relation to the population. We do not know exactly how many people have been infected, but we know that the number of deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 is 31. We are two physicists: one who became an entrepreneur in the health sector, the other a mayor, in close contact with a very cohesive territory, where we know each other very well. We noticed that something in these official numbers did not come back right, and we decided - together - to check. We looked at the average of the deaths in the municipality of previous years, in the period January - March. Nembro should have had - under normal conditions - about 35 deaths. 158 people were registered dead this year by the municipal offices. That is 123 more than the average. Not 31 more, as it should have been according to the official numbers of the coronavirus epidemic."

Any actual data that backs up your view of the corrupt medical system forging Covid-19'deaths for money?


And it seems you have a hard time understanding simple statements.

So lets look at the statements that pertain to your original claim, in the US.

The quotes you posted say nothing about these at home deaths being not labled as Covid 19. regardless of where you die you stiil need a death cert and a cause of death. also the claim is that the only reason more peolpe dies at home may be due to the virus.  Clearly that can be true, but it is also true that do to the restrictions on people being outside the home...well more people are at home. 

Now CDC has quidelines that state you can list Covid 19 as a cause of death if you suspect they died with symtoms that are consistant with covid 19.

So, some hospital has an uninsured patient that dies.  Without covid 19 as a cause of death they eat the cost of caring for that patient.  But if you list Covid 19 as a cause of death even if the patient has not been tested but shows symtoms of of Covid 19, and you assume they have it, you get paid by the Goverment.

I'm not saying its forgery, heck the goverment issued guidlines on how to do it.  But there is a financal incentive never the less.

“If COVID–19 played a role in the death, this condition should be specified on the death certificate. In many cases, it is likely that it will be the [underlying cause of death], as it can lead to various life-threatening conditions, such as pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS),” the guidance says. “In these cases, COVID-19 should be reported on the lowest line used in Part I with the other conditions to which it gave rise listed on the lines above it.”

The CDC advises that officials should report deaths in which the patient tested positive for COVID-19 — or, if a test isn’t available, “if the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty.” It further indicates that if a “definitive diagnosis cannot be made … but it is suspected or likely … it is acceptable to report COVID-19 on a death certificate as ‘probable’ or ‘presumed.'”


There was renewed attention given to the theory of the death toll being inflated after Dr. Deborah Birx, coordinator of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, said during an April 7 press conference that “if someone dies with COVID-19, we are counting that as a COVID-19 death.”
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on April 11, 2020, 01:56:21 pm

And it seems you have a hard time understanding simple statements.

So lets look at the statements that pertain to your original claim, in the US.

The quotes you posted say nothing about these at home deaths being not labled as Covid 19. regardless of where you die you stiil need a death cert and a cause of death. also the claim is that the only reason more peolpe dies at home may be due to the virus.  Clearly that can be true, but it is also true that do to the restrictions on people being outside the home...well more people are at home. 

Now CDC has quidelines that state you can list Covid 19 as a cause of death if you suspect they died with symtoms that are consistant with covid 19.

So, some hospital has an uninsured patient that dies.  Without covid 19 as a cause of death they eat the cost of caring for that patient.  But if you list Covid 19 as a cause of death even if the patient has not been tested but shows symtoms of of Covid 19, and you assume they have it, you get paid by the Goverment.

I'm not saying its forgery, heck the goverment issued guidlines on how to do it.  But there is a financal incentive never the less.

“If COVID–19 played a role in the death, this condition should be specified on the death certificate. In many cases, it is likely that it will be the [underlying cause of death], as it can lead to various life-threatening conditions, such as pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS),” the guidance says. “In these cases, COVID-19 should be reported on the lowest line used in Part I with the other conditions to which it gave rise listed on the lines above it.”

The CDC advises that officials should report deaths in which the patient tested positive for COVID-19 — or, if a test isn’t available, “if the circumstances are compelling within a reasonable degree of certainty.” It further indicates that if a “definitive diagnosis cannot be made … but it is suspected or likely … it is acceptable to report COVID-19 on a death certificate as ‘probable’ or ‘presumed.'”


There was renewed attention given to the theory of the death toll being inflated after Dr. Deborah Birx, coordinator of the White House Coronavirus Task Force, said during an April 7 press conference that “if someone dies with COVID-19, we are counting that as a COVID-19 death.”

Still being an ass I see. Well here is the title of the article...hope that clears things up.

Coronavirus death toll in US likely worse than numbers say

They are not testing corpses brought in for Covid-19...so all these deaths away from the hospital are not tallied.

And how many of these deaths by other reason with Covid-19 infection can be attributed to the medical system so overrun dealing with Covid-19 that the person coming in with a heart attack just didn't have the care to save their life. Now should we count that as a Covid-19 caused death.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: elliot_n on April 11, 2020, 02:26:35 pm
https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/social-media-posts-make-baseless-claim-on-covid-19-death-toll/
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Craig Lamson on April 11, 2020, 03:34:58 pm
Still being an ass I see. Well here is the title of the article...hope that clears things up.

Coronavirus death toll in US likely worse than numbers say

They are not testing corpses brought in for Covid-19...so all these deaths away from the hospital are not tallied.

And how many of these deaths by other reason with Covid-19 infection can be attributed to the medical system so overrun dealing with Covid-19 that the person coming in with a heart attack just didn't have the care to save their life. Now should we count that as a Covid-19 caused death.

I see you are still being obtuse.

Did the fact as I point out eariler that you dont need to be tested to have covid 19 listed as a cause of death, somehow escape you?

If you want to play dueling news story headlines we can do that if you choose, but its pretty pointless.  Your headline has one very important modifer...the word "likely"...which means the story nor the headline can be proven.  Its opinion.  Now there is nothing generally wrong with opinion.  But lets call it what it is.



Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Craig Lamson on April 11, 2020, 03:37:19 pm
https://www.factcheck.org/2020/04/social-media-posts-make-baseless-claim-on-covid-19-death-toll/

Yes...again the money quote away from the salacious headline:

"The repeatedly shared posts — citing the user’s purported recollection of a woman’s claim on a “live broadcast” — argue that “the state” has instructed “that anyone who didnt die by a gun shot wound or car accident” should be “listed as covid 19 victims.” It claims “the numbers are a lie” and calls for an investigation."

Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: elliot_n on April 11, 2020, 03:50:04 pm
And the next sentence:

"We attempted to contact the user responsible for the original post, to no avail, so we don’t know what “state” was being referenced. But there’s no evidence that any state has adopted a policy to classify all deaths, regardless of the individual circumstances, as being related to COVID-19."
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on April 11, 2020, 03:53:09 pm
I see you are still being obtuse.

Did the fact as I point out eariler that you dont need to be tested to have covid 19 listed as a cause of death, somehow escape you?

If you want to play dueling news story headlines we can do that if you choose, but its pretty pointless.  Your headline has one very important modifer...the word "likely"...which means the story nor the headline can be proven.  Its opinion.  Now there is nothing generally wrong with opinion.  But lets call it what it is.

What about the facts of the huge spikes of home deaths in both New York and Italy over the averages from previous years. What do you believe caused these massive spikes? None of which are labeled Covid-19.

Yes, let's call it what it is.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Craig Lamson on April 11, 2020, 03:54:40 pm
And the next sentence:

"We attempted to contact the user responsible for the original post, to no avail, so we don’t know what “state” was being referenced. But there’s no evidence that any state has adopted a policy to classify all deaths, regardless of the individual circumstances, as being related to COVID-19."

Again a VERY inportant modifier in the above quote...no one in this thread ever suggested any such thing. Which makes the entire article and the resulting quote irrelevant
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on April 11, 2020, 03:58:20 pm
And the next sentence:

"We attempted to contact the user responsible for the original post, to no avail, so we don’t know what “state” was being referenced. But there’s no evidence that any state has adopted a policy to classify all deaths, regardless of the individual circumstances, as being related to COVID-19."

Yes valid information that totally puts the entire post in question. Lots of crazy conspiracy people running around throwing out garbage...and just as many eating it all up.

Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: faberryman on April 11, 2020, 03:59:48 pm
Factcheck.org must be desperate for something to do to comment on an absurd suggestion appearing on social media of all places “that anyone who didnt die by a gun shot wound or car accident” should be “listed as covid 19 victims.” Was their no White House briefing today?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Craig Lamson on April 11, 2020, 04:00:40 pm
What about the facts of the huge spikes of home deaths in both New York and Italy over the averages from previous years. What do you believe caused these massive spikes? None of which are labeled Covid-19.

Yes, let's call it what it is.

If you have evidence that NO home deaths in New York have been listed as Covid 19, please post that evidence.  If its just your opinion clearly state it is just that.  My opinion is some of these at home deaths are occuring because people are stuck at home now.  As for Italy, that not my concern right now. 

Now I point you to this passage from the CDC guidlines for death certs in the time of covid 19.  Notice the circumstances of the fictional death.


Scenario III: An 86-year-old female with an
unconfirmed case of COVID–19
An 86-year-old female passed away at home. Her husband
reported that she was nonambulatory after suffering an ischemic
stroke 3 years ago. He stated that 5 days prior, she developed a
high fever and severe cough after being exposed to an ill family
member who subsequently was diagnosed with COVID–19.
Despite his urging, she refused to go to the hospital, even when
her breathing became more labored and temperature escalated.
She was unresponsive that morning and her husband phoned
emergency medical services (EMS). Upon EMS arrival, the
patient was pulseless and apneic. Her husband stated that he
and his wife had advanced directives and that she was not to be
resuscitated. After consulting with medical command, she was
pronounced dead and the coroner was notified.
Comment: Although no testing was done, the coroner
determined that the likely UCOD was COVID–19 given the
patient’s symptoms and exposure to an infected individual.
Therefore, COVID–19 was reported on the lowest line used
in Part I. Her ischemic stroke was considered a factor that
contributed to her death but was not a part of the direct causal
sequence in Part I, so it was reported in Part II
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on April 11, 2020, 04:08:57 pm
If you have evidence that NO home deaths in New York have been listed as Covid 19, please post that evidence.  If its just your opinion clearly state it is just that.  My opinion is some of these at home deaths are occuring because people are stuck at home now.  As for Italy, that not my concern right now. 

Now I point you to this passage from the CDC guidlines for death certs in the time of covid 19.  Notice the circumstances of the fictional death.


Scenario III: An 86-year-old female with an
unconfirmed case of COVID–19
An 86-year-old female passed away at home. Her husband
reported that she was nonambulatory after suffering an ischemic
stroke 3 years ago. He stated that 5 days prior, she developed a
high fever and severe cough after being exposed to an ill family
member who subsequently was diagnosed with COVID–19.
Despite his urging, she refused to go to the hospital, even when
her breathing became more labored and temperature escalated.
She was unresponsive that morning and her husband phoned
emergency medical services (EMS). Upon EMS arrival, the
patient was pulseless and apneic. Her husband stated that he
and his wife had advanced directives and that she was not to be
resuscitated. After consulting with medical command, she was
pronounced dead and the coroner was notified.
Comment: Although no testing was done, the coroner
determined that the likely UCOD was COVID–19 given the
patient’s symptoms and exposure to an infected individual.
Therefore, COVID–19 was reported on the lowest line used
in Part I. Her ischemic stroke was considered a factor that
contributed to her death but was not a part of the direct causal
sequence in Part I, so it was reported in Part II


Craig you appear to be a smart guy that is just pigheaded. Do you really believe the big spikes of home deaths are all caused by other factors and have been tallied as Civid-19 deaths. The case you pointed out is a very good assumption given how infectious Covid is and the symptoms the person had...but do you really think all those cases go through such a diagnoses when there are stacks of corpses already in line.

I highly doubt it...and so does the CDC which fear the under tally to be quite large.

But believe what you like...I know there is no changing your mind.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Craig Lamson on April 11, 2020, 04:20:01 pm
Craig you appear to be a smart guy that is just pigheaded. Do you really believe the big spikes of home deaths are all caused by other factors and have been tallied as Civid-19 deaths. The case you pointed out is a very good assumption given how infectious Covid is and the symptoms the person had...but do you really think all those cases go through such a diagnoses when there are stacks of corpses already in line.

I highly doubt it...and so does the CDC which fear the under tally to be quite large.

But believe what you like...I know there is no changing your mind.

Are you even reading the words I'm writing or are you just in denial?

I said I believe SOME might be caused by other factors.  Notice the word SOME.  I even underlined called it out in my post.

Someone MUST fill out a death cert for everyone who dies in the U.S.  Thats a Federal law. So are you suggestiing they are just making something up?

And my other point, which I made twice, is that the numbers on both sides...over  and under reporting... might be suspect and we should take them with a grain of salt.

Why should my mind be changed?

Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: faberryman on April 11, 2020, 04:50:52 pm
I said I believe SOME might be caused by other factors.  Notice the word SOME.  I even underlined called it out in my post.

Someone MUST fill out a death cert for everyone who dies in the U.S.  Thats a Federal law. So are you suggestiing they are just making something up?

And my other point, which I made twice, is that the numbers on both sides...over  and under reporting... might be suspect and we should take them with a grain of salt.

Why should my mind be changed?
Let's concede the numbers won't be perfect. What do you think the margin of error will be?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on April 11, 2020, 05:02:32 pm
A UK scientist at Oxford says her group is beginning human testing of a vaccine that she says she is 80% certain that it will work against the corona virus. I looked her up and she has quite the virus-developing history, and seems very much legit. The UK government has been talking about providing several tens of millions of dollars to begin manufacturing of the vaccine in advance of final trials, so that if it turns out to be safe and effective, it would be available immediately up the end of trials. She says if it works as she believes it will, it could become available in September. I would fly to the UK to get it.
It's quite doubtful that they will have the necessary safety data to approve a vaccine in that short a period.  This lab as others has a good proof of concept but they have to assess that neutralizing antibodies are produced in sufficient amount to give immunity.  The second issue is what level of safety is being assessed.  The statistical rule of three is in play here.  You need three times the number in the trial to get a good statistical sample.  If there is a rare adverse event of 1 in 10,000 (this has happened with vaccines) you need 30,000 people in the trial.  Now maybe it's decided that this is a true health emergency and a 5000 patient trial is OK.  This is really rolling the dice.  Some of these approaches that are being tried out right now have never been in humans before.  I think the Oxford group had a vaccine for a couple other viruses when I looked at the application for the trial.

I would note there is a German company that is also scaling things up with a goal of early approval.  Their approach is the same as the one Moderna, a US biotech company is using and who were the first to start a trial.

I might be wrong, but I think J&J has the best overall approach to vaccine design and the manufacturing capacity to produce at scale.  We'll see.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on April 11, 2020, 05:09:54 pm
Having just read some of the posts on the last two pages, I think it's time to exit.  It appears that nobody is interested in science at this point but just hurling invectives at or across one another.  This defeats the aim of the thread.  I'll leave it to all of you to find your information elsewhere as I'm out of here and won't be providing further updates.

For the record, the real number to focus on is the mortality rate as a percentage of infected individuals.  the absolute number of deaths doesn't mean much if you don't have the denominator.  Until mass blood testing for antibodies is done, the latter number will never be known.  Even if deaths are being under counted it's still possible that SARS-CoV-2 is worse than the average seasonal flu but maybe in line with the 1957 Hong Kong epidemic.

Have fun talking among yourselves; I've got my daily newsletter on advances to get out.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 11, 2020, 08:03:44 pm
You think so? I've seen enough medical resources say otherwise...they are totally swamped with Covid deaths. These medical personnel surely must know.

If you want to think the actual numbers are less than being reported, I guess you can...but I don't live in your rose coloured glass world. My thinking is we have way more cases of Covid caused deaths than what is reported. I highly doubt a person that dies out of the hospital would be tested for Covid given we still have a lack of testing going on on live people.

And yes, there will be deaths as a result of Covid overrunning the medical system from things like heart attacks which Covid has indirectly contributed to which are also not counted.

Are the regular flu statistics right or wrong?  Or are there more deaths than being reported for the same reason?

In any case, here are the statistics for regular flu. CDC estimates that the burden of illness in the US during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza.

So far, Covid-19 statistics include: 532,092 cases   20,562 deaths to date.  Of course it's not over.  And certainly isolation has greatly lowered the number.

Arguing that there are some "hidden" deaths from Covid also means there are similar "hidden" deaths for regular flu.  So those numbers have to be increased as well to make statistical comparisons.  It seems like you're looking for additional deaths to justify the shutdown of the economy just in case the final count turns out lower than regular flu.  Because everyone's going to ask whether we over -reacted.  This is why Sweden's more relatively lackadaisical attitude is important. It will show whether they were right or not in taking a more laissez faire attitude.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Chris Kern on April 11, 2020, 08:07:08 pm
Having just read some of the posts on the last two pages, I think it's time to exit.

I'm just catching up this evening, myself.  I don't yet want to pull the metaphorical plug, but . . .

It appears that nobody is interested in science at this point but just hurling invectives at or across one another.  This defeats the aim of the thread.

Actually, I think "nobody" is an overstatement.  A few tendentious posters seem to be using this thread to pursue bilateral arguments―or provoke new ones.  Nothing wrong with disagreement, per se, but even to the extent that these pissing matches arguably can be squeezed into the stated theme of COVID-19 science and damage limitation, I don't see how the repetitive back-and-forth offers much information that might be interesting to third parties (i.e., the rest of us).

I'd like to see these heated disputes moved to the playpen thread or, even better, transferred to private message exchanges rather than inflicting them on everyone.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Craig Lamson on April 11, 2020, 08:08:16 pm
Let's concede the numbers won't be perfect. What do you think the margin of error will be?

I don’t think we will ever know for sure, but it would  not surprise me thats it’s + - 20%
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Craig Lamson on April 11, 2020, 08:09:16 pm
I'm just catching up this evening, myself.  I don't yet want to pull the metaphorical plug, but . . .

Actually, I think "nobody" is an overstatement.  A few tendentious posters seem to be using this thread to pursue bilateral arguments―or provoke new ones.  Nothing wrong with disagreement, per se, but even to the extent that these pissing matches arguably can be squeezed into the stated theme of COVID-19 science and damage limitation, I don't see how the repetitive back-and-forth offers much information that might be interesting to third parties (i.e., the rest of us).

I'd like to see these heated disputes moved to the playpen thread or, even better, transferred to private message exchanges rather than inflicting them on everyone.

I’ll spare you guys and move on.  Sorry
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 11, 2020, 08:19:08 pm
Seems like you just have a hard time being civil...enough of your whoosh bullshit.

Here are a couple statements that point towards under recording of actual Covid deaths.

"According to Levine, the number of deaths at home in New York City has grown 10-fold since the end of last week, even as hospitalizations for trauma and other emergencies have dropped to nearly nothing.

"Normally we have 20 to 25 deaths at home and now we are at 200 to 215,” Levine said, explaining that coronavirus would likely be the only way to explain such a spike.

Mayor Bill de Blasio said Tuesday he assumed the “vast majority” of the recent at-home deaths are coronavirus-related."


And in Italy

"In Nembro the almost deserted streets, the absent traffic, a strange silence is sometimes interrupted by the siren of an ambulance that carries with it the anxiety and worry that fill the hearts of all in these weeks. In Nembro every member of the community continuously receives news that he never wanted to hear, every day we lose people who were part of our lives and our community. Nembro, in the province of Bergamo, is the municipality most affected by Covid-19 in relation to the population. We do not know exactly how many people have been infected, but we know that the number of deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 is 31. We are two physicists: one who became an entrepreneur in the health sector, the other a mayor, in close contact with a very cohesive territory, where we know each other very well. We noticed that something in these official numbers did not come back right, and we decided - together - to check. We looked at the average of the deaths in the municipality of previous years, in the period January - March. Nembro should have had - under normal conditions - about 35 deaths. 158 people were registered dead this year by the municipal offices. That is 123 more than the average. Not 31 more, as it should have been according to the official numbers of the coronavirus epidemic."

Any actual data that backs up your view of the corrupt medical system forging Covid-19'deaths for money?


I didn't realize the Mayor DeBlasio was also the Medical Examiner.  First off, when someone dies in their home, someone knowledgeable has to write a death certificate.  There's also an investigation to make sure there was no foul play.  So why doesn't the mayor direct his Medical Examiner's office, which is among the world's finest,  to do an investigation instead of playing politics? 

In any case, how do you know that more people died at home because of Covid?  Maybe they died of other diseases at home because they weren't going to the hospital as they would have under normal circumstances before Covid.    Almost all elective surgery was cancelled by hospitals after about mid-March.   Many other treatment, tests, and procedures that people need were also put off.  So people stayed home and died.  Also, where I might want to go to a hospital under normal circumstances, I may have not gone so not to expose myself to the Covid virus that was being treated so extensively.  These and other reasons could account for the higher death rate at home, not necessarily Covid.  Until this is investigated, I wouldn't  trust
Mayor De Blasio who probably came up with this statistic while working out in the gym that he goes to every day. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 11, 2020, 09:20:36 pm
This is the problem when everybody becomes an expert and starts questioning the actual experts, or not as much questioning but doubting because their google research told them otherwise.


Regarding the flu, the answer is quite simple: those deaths are spread over the entire US, over many months. With Covid there are many death concentrated over a short period of time, mostly localized to specific areas.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on April 11, 2020, 09:28:50 pm
Are the regular flu statistics right or wrong?  Or are there more deaths than being reported for the same reason?

In any case, here are the statistics for regular flu. CDC estimates that the burden of illness in the US during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza.

So far, Covid-19 statistics include: 532,092 cases   20,562 deaths to date.  Of course it's not over.  And certainly isolation has greatly lowered the number.

Arguing that there are some "hidden" deaths from Covid also means there are similar "hidden" deaths for regular flu.  So those numbers have to be increased as well to make statistical comparisons.  It seems like you're looking for additional deaths to justify the shutdown of the economy just in case the final count turns out lower than regular flu.  Because everyone's going to ask whether we over -reacted.  This is why Sweden's more relatively lackadaisical attitude is important. It will show whether they were right or not in taking a more laissez faire attitude.

I don't believe we are comparing to the regular flu...at least I'm not. I was just pointing out that the death toll is quite a bit different for Covid deaths than what is officially tallied. I've shown two cases in both New York and Italy where the at home death numbers have gone up dramatically during the Covid crisis and these deaths for the majority of them are not tallied as Covid-19 deaths.

You seem to be hung up on comparing to regular flu deaths. Who cares about that...with Covid it spreads more rapidly, it kills more efficiently and we have no vaccine or cure for it.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on April 11, 2020, 09:33:42 pm

In any case, how do you know that more people died at home because of Covid?  Maybe they died of other diseases at home because they weren't going to the hospital as they would have under normal circumstances before Covid.    Almost all elective surgery was cancelled by hospitals after about mid-March.   Many other treatment, tests, and procedures that people need were also put off.  So people stayed home and died.  Also, where I might want to go to a hospital under normal circumstances, I may have not gone so not to expose myself to the Covid virus that was being treated so extensively.  These and other reasons could account for the higher death rate at home, not necessarily Covid.  Until this is investigated, I wouldn't  trust
Mayor De Blasio who probably came up with this statistic while working out in the gym that he goes to every day.

Same issue if they died directly because of Covid infections or they died because the medical system was overrun dealing with Covid. One is a direct cause of death...the other an indirect that could have been prevented if Covid-19 was not around.

Didn't we discuss this many days ago when you insisted on knowing why we needed to isolate and bring the curve down...well it is exactly for the reason you stated above...unfortunately New York did not bring that curve down and we are seeing the results.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 11, 2020, 09:34:51 pm
This is the problem when everybody becomes an expert and starts questioning the actual experts, or not as much questioning but doubting because their google research told them otherwise.


Regarding the flu, the answer is quite simple: those deaths are spread over the entire US, over many months. With Covid there are many death concentrated over a short period of time, mostly localized to specific areas.
Until this is all over, you can't determine just how much damage and death policies have caused.  Sweden took a different route regarding isolation, much less stringent.  Wuhan is just starting back up economically after apparently shutting down the whole area.  Elsewhere in the world, in between measures were taken.  Let's compare results later to see the differences.  It will be very informative in facing similar pandemics in the future. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: John Camp on April 11, 2020, 09:37:43 pm
I didn't realize the Mayor DeBlasio was also the Medical Examiner.  First off, when someone dies in their home, someone knowledgeable has to write a death certificate.  There's also an investigation to make sure there was no foul play.  So why doesn't the mayor direct his Medical Examiner's office, which is among the world's finest,  to do an investigation instead of playing politics? 

In any case, how do you know that more people died at home because of Covid?  Maybe they died of other diseases at home because they weren't going to the hospital as they would have under normal circumstances before Covid.    Almost all elective surgery was cancelled by hospitals after about mid-March.   Many other treatment, tests, and procedures that people need were also put off.  So people stayed home and died.  Also, where I might want to go to a hospital under normal circumstances, I may have not gone so not to expose myself to the Covid virus that was being treated so extensively.  These and other reasons could account for the higher death rate at home, not necessarily Covid.  Until this is investigated, I wouldn't  trust
Mayor De Blasio who probably came up with this statistic while working out in the gym that he goes to every day.

You know, it's sometimes impossible to stay much more than Chez did in his post. The at-home deaths rise from 25 to 200, and what, with an epidemic raging outside, you think they're falling down the stairs? New York at this point is burying unclaimed bodies in trenches in the potter's field, you think that's because they're bored with regular burials? Try to take a break from your ideologically based truths, and take a look at the world as it is.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 11, 2020, 09:40:40 pm
You know, it's sometimes impossible to stay much more than Chez did in his post. The at-home deaths rise from 25 to 200, and what, with an epidemic raging outside, you think they're falling down the stairs? New York at this point is burying unclaimed bodies in trenches in the potter's field, you think that's because they're bored with regular burials? Try to take a break from your ideologically based truths, and take a look at the world as it is.
I can't respond to your political point or Jeremy will ban me for making a political point.  If you want me to respond, take your post to the other thread.
Title: WHO'S BEATING CORONAVIRUS
Post by: Guillermo Luijk on April 11, 2020, 10:22:53 pm
Based on this type of visualization: https://lnkd.in/eiHE3gG
I represented total deaths (X) vs daily deaths (Y) per million inhabitants for some countries caused by COVID-19, using log scale on both axis.
The plot has visual interpretations:
- Countries still in an early stage in controlling the disease (UK, US, Germany?) show a rectilinear trend since daily deaths grow at roughly the same rate as total deaths.
- Plots getting close to a vertical asymptote correspond to countries managing to control the spread and effects of the coronavirus (see China, S. Korea?, Italy or Spain)
- In the same ways plots reaching higher points in the X or Y axis correspond to countries with more daily and total deaths per inhabitant. Here Spain is unfortunately the current 'winner' on both axis.

(http://guillermoluijk.com/misc/venciendocoronavirus.png)

Regards
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 11, 2020, 10:23:23 pm
Same issue if they died directly because of Covid infections or they died because the medical system was overrun dealing with Covid. One is a direct cause of death...the other an indirect that could have been prevented if Covid-19 was not around.

Didn't we discuss this many days ago when you insisted on knowing why we needed to isolate and bring the curve down...well it is exactly for the reason you stated above...unfortunately New York did not bring that curve down and we are seeing the results.
You're assuming that the people died at home because they didn't get treatment at the hospital.  But they may have died at the hospital in any case.  This is from the following link posted elsewhere.  Until there's an examination of the actual causes assuming a couple of hundred dead per day at home from Covid is just speculation. I assume there are some.  But that might be an inflated number. 

"An enormous change is that emergency departments are almost empty of non-coronavirus cases. People don’t seem to be breaking their legs, having strokes or shooting one another as often as normal. That’s partly because fewer people are outdoors, but it also appears that some families prefer to have an aging parent die quietly at home rather than go to a hospital at this time."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-hospitals-bronx.html
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 11, 2020, 10:30:13 pm
Based on this type of visualization: https://lnkd.in/eiHE3gG
I represented total deaths (X) vs daily deaths (Y) per million inhabitants for some countries caused by COVID-19, using log scale on both axis.
The plot has two visual interpretations:
- Plots getting close to a vertical asymptote correspond to countries managing to control the spread and effects of the coronavirus (see China, S. Korea?, Italy or Spain)
- In the same ways plots reaching higher points in the X or Y axis correspond to countries with more daily and total deaths per inhabitant. Here Spain is unfortunately the current 'winner'.

(http://guillermoluijk.com/misc/venciendocoronavirus.png)

Regards

I'm sure your graphs are accurate based on the figures you received.  But frankly, I don't believe the Chinese statistics.  Millions of people and they dropped to almost zero?  Something doesn't smell right.  Are they lying?  Do they have an secret  antidote? If they are accurate, what are they doing to get results that no one is duplicating?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Guillermo Luijk on April 11, 2020, 10:37:53 pm
I'm sure your graphs are accurate based on the figures you received.  But frankly, I don't believe the Chinese statistics.  Millions of people and they dropped to almost zero?  Something doesn't smell right.  Are they lying?  Do they have an secret  antidote? If they are accurate, what are they doing to get results that no one is duplicating?
I wouldn't put their figures in the same basket as other countries actually. Anyway we must think China is a huge country and Wuhan was locked down very efficiently. If we just considered the Wuhan region or Hubei city, the rates would be very different (they would basically move up and right in the graph).

Regards
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 11, 2020, 10:40:05 pm
Having just read some of the posts on the last two pages, I think it's time to exit.  It appears that nobody is interested in science at this point but just hurling invectives at or across one another.  This defeats the aim of the thread.  I'll leave it to all of you to find your information elsewhere as I'm out of here and won't be providing further updates.

For the record, the real number to focus on is the mortality rate as a percentage of infected individuals.  the absolute number of deaths doesn't mean much if you don't have the denominator.  Until mass blood testing for antibodies is done, the latter number will never be known.  Even if deaths are being under counted it's still possible that SARS-CoV-2 is worse than the average seasonal flu but maybe in line with the 1957 Hong Kong epidemic.

Have fun talking among yourselves; I've got my daily newsletter on advances to get out.

Sorry to hear it but I understand.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 11, 2020, 10:56:25 pm
Finnish researchers released a dramatic video how someone coughing in a store could spread the virus droplets in one isle and across the isles.
The video is available on Spiegel site and text in English below. Spread of virus droplets in a store (https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/breitet-sich-das-coronavirus-durch-husten-aus-a-87bd4477-5663-4945-9cfe-4c17f243ad1b)

Quote
Researchers in Finland have released a shocking simulation that apparently shows how respiratory droplets from just one cough in a grocery store can linger in the air for “several minutes” and travel across two aisles, possibly infecting other shoppers nearby with coronavirus.

Aalto University, the Finnish Meteorological Institute, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland and the University of Helsinki studied how aerosolized particles released from the respiratory tract when coughing, sneezing or even talking flow through the air. Preliminary results indicate that tiny particles carrying the coronavirus can linger in the air for longer than originally thought, reinforcing the importance of completely avoiding crowded spaces, or at the very least following social distancing guidelines.

https://www.kron4.com/health/coronavirus/see-it-simulation-shows-how-cough-can-spread-coronavirus-in-grocery-stores/
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 11, 2020, 11:11:06 pm
I wouldn't put their figures in the same basket as other countries actually. Anyway we must think China is a huge country and Wuhan was locked down very efficiently. If we just considered the Wuhan region or Hubei city, the rates would be very different (they would basically move up and right in the graph).

Regards

OK Let's discount China.  what about Korea?  I can't tell from the log chart.  Are the numbers going down or just staying at a low level?  What are they doing to accomplish that.  It seems very impressive.  We should be able to learn something from them.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 11, 2020, 11:21:31 pm
Finnish researchers released a dramatic video how someone coughing in a store could spread the virus droplets in one isle and across the isles.
The video is available on Spiegel site and text in English below. Spread of virus droplets in a store (https://www.spiegel.de/wissenschaft/breitet-sich-das-coronavirus-durch-husten-aus-a-87bd4477-5663-4945-9cfe-4c17f243ad1b)

https://www.kron4.com/health/coronavirus/see-it-simulation-shows-how-cough-can-spread-coronavirus-in-grocery-stores/
Les, it was in German so I couldn't understand the narrator.  Did he indicate that the virus itself was alive during the whole few minutes? Have they tested to see if people actually get infected by breathing air from so far away?  Or does there have to be a certain amount of viral particles that land in your nose or mouth for it to take root?

The other things is that the flow indicated to me that due to the HVAC system and its air flow or an open door, how fast and where it goes would be very dependent on those things.  Did he describe how the air distribution was working in the space?  It seem to flow in one direction mainly.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 11, 2020, 11:38:56 pm
Les, it was in German so I couldn't understand the narrator.  Did he indicate that the virus itself was alive during the whole few minutes? Have they tested to see if people actually get infected by breathing air from so far away?  Or does there have to be a certain amount of viral particles that land in your nose or mouth for it to take root?

The other things is that the flow indicated to me that due to the HVAC system and its air flow or an open door, how fast and where it goes would be very dependent on those things.  Did he describe how the air distribution was working in the space?  It seem to flow in one direction mainly.

The main take is the visual aspect of it how can the droplet cloud spread within an isle and across the isles. The narrator said (as it was visible in the animation) that the amount of droplets further from the source is diminished and the smaller amount of droplets may be not enough to infect others, but the possibility remains. Also that further experiments and studies are needed.

Obviously, the height of the isles is also important in the horizontal movement of the droplets. Wearing a mask may further mitigate the effect of droplets coming from the neighbouring isles.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 11, 2020, 11:44:22 pm
here is all all-American image:

(https://cdn.prod.www.spiegel.de/images/a1921804-c3a5-4508-b826-aad93692d7dd_w948_r2.11_fpx44.98_fpy58.45.jpg)
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 12, 2020, 02:55:09 am
OK Let's discount China.  what about Korea?
What are they doing to accomplish that.  It seems very impressive.  We should be able to learn something from them.

1/ Social distancing, contact tracing, personal hygiene
2/ A highly effective triage and treatment system developed as a result of the experience of the MERS outbreak.
3/ Extensive screening and fast tracking of suspect cases - emergency diagnostic kits and a weekly diagnostic capability of 430,000.
4/ Drive-through and walk-through test centres.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 12, 2020, 03:04:57 am

FT:
April 9: All maps and charts now exclude nursing home deaths from France’s totals to maintain cross-national comparability
April 7: The maps now display total deaths rather than confirmed cases.


(https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-eu.s3.amazonaws.com%2F4526c15a-7c38-11ea-82f6-150830b3b99a?fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=1080)

(https://www.ft.com/__origami/service/image/v2/images/raw/http%3A%2F%2Fcom.ft.imagepublish.upp-prod-eu.s3.amazonaws.com%2F3f569dd6-7c38-11ea-82f6-150830b3b99a?fit=scale-down&quality=highest&source=next&width=1080)
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on April 12, 2020, 04:41:00 am
We'll never know the true counts...other than its quite a bit higher than the official counts.

In Portugal, in March 2020, compared to 2019, number of deaths went up, after excluding Covid-19 cases. For every Covid-19 death, there are 3 deaths due to no-Covid-19, above the same period for 2019. It will be impossible to get an accurate number, because not everyone that dies was tested for Covid-19.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on April 12, 2020, 04:51:04 am
Sorry to hear it but I understand.

Same here. Unfortunately, some people here only introduce noise.
Title: Re: WHO'S BEATING CORONAVIRUS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on April 12, 2020, 04:56:22 am
Based on this type of visualization: https://lnkd.in/eiHE3gG
I represented total deaths (X) vs daily deaths (Y) per million inhabitants for some countries caused by COVID-19, using log scale on both axis.
The plot has visual interpretations:
- Countries still in an early stage in controlling the disease (UK, US, Germany?) show a rectilinear trend since daily deaths grow at roughly the same rate as total deaths.
- Plots getting close to a vertical asymptote correspond to countries managing to control the spread and effects of the coronavirus (see China, S. Korea?, Italy or Spain)
- In the same ways plots reaching higher points in the X or Y axis correspond to countries with more daily and total deaths per inhabitant. Here Spain is unfortunately the current 'winner' on both axis.

(http://guillermoluijk.com/misc/venciendocoronavirus.png)

Thanks. Indeed, here in Portugal, given the up and down beahviour of daily cases (500 - 1500 -  500 in the last 3 days) which is due to a bottleneck in the labs capacity to process the high numer of tests, which in turn creates a large number in the category of "awaiting results", and given that there are already many days after case #1, it is more meaningful now to look at:

1. plotting the average of the previous 7 days, to get rid of these ups and downs. When we do that, we get a stable plateau type curve.

2. look at the trends in number of people getting hospitalized, and from those, ICU occupancy - this is independent of number of tests.

3. look at death numbers like you did - this is also independent of number of tests.

Regards
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: elliot_n on April 12, 2020, 05:31:41 am
Sars-CoV-2 vs Sars.

Sars-CoV-2 produces more pathogens and hides beneath the immune system’s radar:

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3079502/coronavirus-causes-covid-19-can-produce-more
Title: Re: WHO'S BEATING CORONAVIRUS
Post by: Guillermo Luijk on April 12, 2020, 06:57:10 am
(...)
I updated the plot with today's data and added Portugal for you. Also plotted Hubei which accounts for 96% of reported deaths in China (another matter to discuss about). Hubei's curve is an offset version of whole China's:

(http://guillermoluijk.com/misc/venciendocoronavirus.png)

Update: added Belgium and Holland. Belgium doesn't seem to be taking this seriously enough.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 12, 2020, 08:11:09 am
It's remarkable how similar is the trajectory for so many countries (excl. China and South Korea).
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 12, 2020, 08:21:09 am
It's remarkable how similar is the trajectory for so many countries (excl. China and South Korea).

At first glance it is but maybe it isn't. All people behave more or less in the same way. We talk to each other, we buy food, we work in factories and offices and those places are the same the world over, we go to parties and restaurants. The virus doesn't care about national borders, it just transmits the way it transmits. I think it would be more surprising if the trajectories were wildly different from each other. The later reaction to the virus, how to deal with it, may reflect different levels of social cohesion when addressing a common problem and that seems to be more affected by culture.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 12, 2020, 08:38:04 am
At first glance it is but maybe it isn't. All people behave more or less in the same way. We talk to each other, we buy food, we work in factories and offices and those places are the same the world over, we go to parties and restaurants. The virus doesn't care about national borders, it just transmits the way it transmits. I think it would be more surprising if the trajectories were wildly different from each other. The later reaction to the virus, how to deal with it, may reflect different levels of social cohesion when addressing a common problem and that seems to be more affected by culture.

There are enough principal differences between all these countries and how they deal with the crisis:

Start of the crisis (first infection case), different travel regulations, climate (air temperature and humidity), lockdown degrees, average population age, discipline of citizens to adhere to imposed lockdowns), testing volume, available hospital capacity, availability of masks and ventilators, etc.
The individual curves start to diverge at the end of the shown time axis. In the next 2-weeks segment, we may see more differences in the individual outcomes. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on April 12, 2020, 09:32:22 am
In Portugal, in March 2020, compared to 2019, number of deaths went up, after excluding Covid-19 cases. For every Covid-19 death, there are 3 deaths due to no-Covid-19, above the same period for 2019. It will be impossible to get an accurate number, because not everyone that dies was tested for Covid-19.

I think the best approximation is to use the Covid-19 tally and add the difference in deaths between last years average and this years deaths. Sure these extra deaths won't be totally Covid-19'caused, but I would think it would be a very close approximation.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 12, 2020, 09:35:06 am
It's remarkable how similar is the trajectory for so many countries (excl. China and South Korea).
That's what I was about to say.  All the arguments how America should have started earlier makes no sense because everyone pretty much did they same thing and have they same results. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 12, 2020, 09:41:27 am
There are enough principal differences between all these countries and how they deal with the crisis:

Start of the crisis (first infection case), different travel regulations, climate (air temperature and humidity), lockdown degrees, average population age, discipline of citizens to adhere to imposed lockdowns), testing volume, available hospital capacity, availability of masks and ventilators, etc.
The individual curves start to diverge at the end of the shown time axis. In the next 2-weeks segment, we may see more differences in the individual outcomes. 
I don't think so.  Even in America, we're seeing a flattening out as cases and deaths appear to be leveling off, especially in hard-hit areas like the NY Metro Area which represented 60% of the cases in the country.  The big unknown is whether the virus is going to die out naturally or continue on through the summer and fall or adapt into another virus next year.  Let's prepare for the latter and pray for the former.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 12, 2020, 09:46:14 am
That's what I was about to say.  All the arguments how America should have started earlier makes no sense because everyone pretty much did they same thing and have they same results.

Are you kidding? The curve shapes may be similar but the actual numbers are different. The countries that started earlier are experiencing less suffering.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 12, 2020, 09:47:47 am
I don't think so.  Even in America, we're seeing a flattening out as cases and deaths appear to be leveling off, especially in hard-hit areas like the NY Metro Area which represented 60% of the cases in the country.  The big unknown is whether the virus is going to die out naturally or continue on through the summer and fall or adapt into another virus next year.  Let's prepare for the latter and pray for the former.

It may be flattening in NY but may be increasing elsewhere. The fact that numbers are low now in other areas means almost nothing. It was low in NY at one point as well. There's no magic involved here.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 12, 2020, 09:50:53 am
I don't think so.  Even in America, we're seeing a flattening out as cases and deaths appear to be leveling off, especially in hard-hit areas like the NY Metro Area which represented 60% of the cases in the country.  The big unknown is whether the virus is going to die out naturally or continue on through the summer and fall or adapt into another virus next year.  Let's prepare for the latter and pray for the former.

It doesn't look like the USA curve is flattening. Fluctuating would a better description.
 
Quote
As of Friday evening, 18,637 people in the United States have died of coronavirus, according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University, an increase of 1,953 deaths from Thursday.

States like New York and New Jersey may have already passed their peaks this week, but Florida and Texas could see the worst by the end of the month, according to the IHME model.

The IHME's modeling also estimates more people will die from coronavirus than previously predicted.
On Wednesday, the IHME estimated that 60,415 in the US would die of coronavirus by August, assuming social distancing policies continue through May. On Friday, that estimate increased to 61,500.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/10/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: degrub on April 12, 2020, 09:52:18 am
major cities in my state are on the steep part of the curve, maybe 3-4 weeks behind NYC
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Guillermo Luijk on April 12, 2020, 10:09:56 am
I think the best approximation is to use the Covid-19 tally and add the difference in deaths between last years average and this years deaths. Sure these extra deaths won't be totally Covid-19'caused, but I would think it would be a very close approximation.

I agree, that calculus can be even more accurate than COVID-19 specifically accounted deaths because it really represents the incremental effect of COVID-19 over BAU expected deaths (i.e. someone who was going to die on those days regardless of the fact he got COVID-19). The estimated expected number of deaths becomes a control group.

Red: real deaths
Black: expected deaths

Daily deaths in Spain:
(https://ep01.epimg.net/politica/imagenes/2020/04/11/actualidad/1586599766_815671_1586600838_sumario_normal_recorte1.jpg)

Regards
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Bart_van_der_Wolf on April 12, 2020, 02:03:14 pm
[...]
Is it still general feeling still that we are asymptotically approaching 1% death rate overall or is it too early to call?

Hard to say where it will stabilize, with too few tests. The current expected range seems to be from 0.3 to 1%.
One can only hope it's closer to the lower number.

There is still a lot to be learned about this novel virus.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Guillermo Luijk on April 12, 2020, 02:29:05 pm
Hard to say where it will stabilize, with too few tests. The current expected range seems to be from 0.3 to 1%.
One can only hope it's closer to the lower number.

There is still a lot to be learned about this novel virus.
I made a simple infection model based on Susceptible -> Infected -> Recovered/Death status through probabilities, and manually adjusted it to fit real death people data in the best possible way.
The social distancing period (=home confinement for most of the population) assumed was 14-mar -> 10-may.
Most parameters (number of contacts pre/post confinement, probability of death one infected, incubation and death periods,...) were forced by the real data from coronavirus deaths in Spain:

(https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-AZsBJFQAqwE/XpMumm4vhZI/AAAAAAAAI84/lZzHaIpF1pIFm5UuYEY0Q1Q6mZsQO4qWwCLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/simulacioncoronavirus1lite.png)

The main insights after adjusting the model were:

And the main outputs:

(https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-6dJPGVPnh6A/XpNAdJbEErI/AAAAAAAAI9s/6S3L4YAykUsQWOG6H7XP_9MEQ10uSy7hACLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/simulacioncoronavirus5lite.png)

(https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-TmsgHDcK0Vs/XpMz-os4HlI/AAAAAAAAI9g/zevN8zswAbY1bgcJyVu4z95dfxZdXy6_ACLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/simulacioncoronavirus4lite.png)

The most critical figure in my opinion is the only 8,5% of infected population after social distancing. It's very low to expect any herd inmunity.
I hope to be wrong but with such a % we cannot go back to our previous social and professional life, otherwise the problem could be back by the end of June (assuming no vaccine and no coronavirus sensitivity to higher temperatures):

(https://1.bp.blogspot.com/-pLwC4UohKf4/XpMvkeOjYmI/AAAAAAAAI9A/exjPUmYMydozqrtbGr2tzntI8EovRGkvACLcBGAsYHQ/s1600/simulacioncoronavirus2lite.png)

The whole article (including a link to the Excel model) can be Google-translated into English: https://www.datosimagensonido.com/2020/04/prediccion-de-evolucion-del-coronavirus.html

Regards

Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 12, 2020, 05:43:45 pm
Are you kidding? The curve shapes may be similar but the actual numbers are different. The countries that started earlier are experiencing less suffering.
America is the third largest country in population after China and India.  Also, 60% of the cases were in the crowded NYC Metro area which had huge numbers of foreign visitors.  In any case, the graph is the same except for China and Taiwan, maybe Korea.  If China didn't lie to the world and get WHO to swear to it, the whole world would have started earlier.  Why don't you have any criticism for China?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Bart_van_der_Wolf on April 12, 2020, 06:29:35 pm
America is the third largest country in population after China and India.  Also, 60% of the cases were in the crowded NYC Metro area which had huge numbers of foreign visitors.  In any case, the graph is the same except for China and Taiwan, maybe Korea.  If China didn't lie to the world and get WHO to swear to it, the whole world would have started earlier.  Why don't you have any criticism for China?

Wrong thread.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Bart_van_der_Wolf on April 12, 2020, 07:03:29 pm
Sobering information from the Dutch Outbreak Management Team.

It is unclear whether people who had only mild symptoms or were asymptomatic, created enough antibodies to become immune.
Serum tests show varying amounts of antibodies in those who have recovered. It is unclear whether those individuals with low counts can be reinfected.
More testing and research is being done to find an answer.

Potentially positive news, but still the subject of early clinical tests. Doctors in the Radboud UMC hospital observed a pattern in those who got really ill and had to be committed to the ICU. Patients show a fluid buildup coming from damaged (by the virus) tiny arteries/veins, capillaries, leaking into the pulmonary alveolus where the infection spreads and affects the lungs. These doctors have seen a similar fluid buildup in other diseases, for which there is working medication. Tests on a few patients look encouraging, so further testing has started on 20 patients. It's too early to declare victory, but it would help those who are seriously affected to improve their survival rate.

This suppression of symptoms is not a cure but is still important because each day in the ICU roughly equates to one month of revalidation if patients survive. People who have been kept in a coma for such a long period, lose a lot of muscle mass and need to learn to swallow again, learn to walk, and can suffer from mental issues.

Quote
Theoretical explanation: Substance gets free play

This is the theory: The coronavirus enters the lungs via the so-called ACE2-receptor, an enzyme on organs. ACE2 has an important function that until now has remained out of the picture in coronavirus research. The enzyme keeps the substance bradykininia under control. This is important, because with too much bradykininia blood vessels start leaking. But that mechanism doesn't seem to work well in people with a corona infection.

We have good reason to believe that this Covid-19 infection has exactly this effect: ACE2 receptors disappear from the lung cells when the virus is brought in, giving bradykinine free rein and the small blood vessels start leaking massively at the site of infection,' says Frank van de Veerdonk, internist-infectiologist in the Radboudumc.

Van de Veerdonk and colleagues are familiar with this phenomenon from another, very rare clinical picture: hereditary angioedema. People with this disease can suddenly swell hands, feet, abdomen or face.

First treatments
Radboudumc researchers are now setting up the first treatments with Icatibant, a drug that can inhibit the effects of bradykinine. For every good idea must first of all be proven. On a national level, we are in talks with the UMC Utrecht, on an international level with ReMap-Cap and others. We hope that this will give us a definitive answer as soon as possible on the insights we have now launched.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 13, 2020, 02:58:48 am
Coronavirus is not a problem if you get into your nineties.

Quote
When 97-year-old Brazilian Gina Dal Colleto was hospitalized on April 1 with coronavirus symptoms, few could have thought she would survive the deadly virus.

On Sunday, however, Dal Colleto was pushed in a wheelchair out of Sao Paulo’s Vila Nova Star hospital to applause from doctors and nurses, becoming the oldest known survivor of COVID-19 in Brazil, the Latin American country worst-hit by the outbreak.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-healthcare-coronavirus-brazil-survivo/great-grandmother-97-becomes-brazils-oldest-coronavirus-survivor-idUSKCN21U0R3
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Jeremy Roussak on April 13, 2020, 04:09:22 am
Coronavirus is not a problem if you get into your nineties.

Of all the fatuous comments I have read in this and other threads, I think that takes the biscuit.

Jeremy
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: BobShaw on April 13, 2020, 08:43:26 pm
Are you kidding? The curve shapes may be similar but the actual numbers are different. The countries that started earlier are experiencing less suffering.
Or to put it another way. for some countries the first step in the crisis was anticipation and for others it was denial.

From what I have seen of China their steps were complete military enforced lockdown, teams of people in hazmat suits walking the streets spraying and drones flying overhead spraying. A lot of countries were not as drastic but most are now on the downhill part of the curve and planning for relaxing restrictions. Of the global 84,000 new cases a day though, one country has 31,000.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 13, 2020, 09:24:14 pm
Or to put it another way. for some countries the first step in the crisis was anticipation and for others it was denial.

Denial might be a slight exaggeration but they certainly didn't anticipate the degree of contagion nor, in some cases, did they take appropriate preventive measures. Too early to make a final statistical assesment on how effective each country's choice and implementation were until a clear plateau is reached.  The UK is approximately 7 days behind France and 14 days behind Italy. We're not there yet ...

(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49771878918_51142591b4_b.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/2iQaTzq)
Australian data (columns as above) : 6400 / 61 / 251 / 2

*Edit: added chart and tabular data from The Times (UK) dd 14-April
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 13, 2020, 09:49:42 pm
Per Henry Ford Health System, 1,057 COVID-19 patients have been discharged in the last 30 days
https://www.wxyz.com/news/coronavirus/henry-ford-health-1075-covid-19-patients-discharged-in-last-30-days?fbclid=IwAR07pqNZSAqEAIpTckGnBIMeFHUbAxNvWZUaocxyGrc9R9G3HgLqOEDzfFY
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: KLaban on April 14, 2020, 07:27:07 am
I am heartened by the timely measures Greece put in place to protect their people.

How Greece is beating coronavirus (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/14/how-greece-is-beating-coronavirus-despite-a-decade-of-debt)

My wife and I long for a time when we can once more hug and kiss our many dear Greek friends.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 14, 2020, 09:05:17 am
Short interview regarding the newly developed "Cape Breton" ventilator https://youtu.be/fXeLVC5zlhQ (https://youtu.be/fXeLVC5zlhQ).
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 14, 2020, 11:33:30 am
I am heartened by the timely measures Greece put in place to protect their people.

How Greece is beating coronavirus (https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/14/how-greece-is-beating-coronavirus-despite-a-decade-of-debt)

My wife and I long for a time when we can once more hug and kiss our many dear Greek friends.

Alex Patelis, Mitsotakis’ economics adviser, said: “There are problems you can solve through spin and others that require truth and transparency. It was very clear we needed experts and we needed to listen to them. That said, Greeks have been through crisis; they know what it is. I think that also enabled them to adapt and be stoic.”

Textbook. I hope it works for them.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 14, 2020, 11:58:17 am
I am heartened by the timely measures Greece put in place to protect their people.
My wife and I long for a time when we can once more hug and kiss our many dear Greek friends.

Hopefully, sooner rather than later.

Source of some amusement that such a naturally unruly nation so quickly adapted to the interim regime (aka lockdown). Not that 'persuasion' wasn't necessary, more so with the clerics than the populace.

Quote
Corfu prosecutor charges bishop, mayor over church service, holy communion
 
Corfu prosecutor Lambridis has drawn up charges against Bishop Nektarios of Corfu, the mayor of central Corfu, the head of the municipal council and clerics and worshippers who participated in a service held at the Aghios Spyridon church in Corfu Town on Saturday . Three people who attended the service - two men and a woman - were reportedly given holy communion, despite the particularly high risk the ritual poses for the spread of the virus.

Lambridis, who is a court of first instance prosecutor said the case file has been sent to the local police and will be executed in the context of the so-called "aftoforo" law which permits a swift hearing if an arrest is made within 48 hours of an alleged crime. The government had banned all church services as part of its response to the Covid-19 pandemic. Services will be permitted this week in the runup to Orthodox Easter, for clerics but only behind closed doors, without the presence of worshippers, with the services to be broadcast online.

In response to the above , wonderful one-liner from the Prime Minister in his address to the nation last night:
"Our faith is not in danger, the faithful are"
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 14, 2020, 12:04:07 pm
Hopefully, sooner rather than later.

Source of some amusement that such a naturally unruly nation so quickly adapted to the interim regime (aka lockdown). Not that 'persuasion' wasn't necessary, more so with the clerics than the populace.

In response to the above , wonderful one-liner from the Prime Minister in his address to the nation last night:
"Our faith is not in danger, the faithful are"

We got it.  You've been repeating your point for 34 pages.  Stay home. Well, the whole world is staying home.  Now what?  What is Greece doing now to get the tourists back? When are the Germans coming back to sip their ouzo and cafe?  What should the US do?  The rest of the world? 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 14, 2020, 12:34:56 pm
We got it.  You've been repeating your point for 34 pages. 

Not 34 pages, but post #644.

**/off-topic**

Now what?  What is Greece doing now to get the tourists back?

Quote
Greece from Home’ initiative seen as ‘brilliant’ response to crisis

Bill Gates has hailed recent initiatives developed to adapt to the “new normal” imposed by the coronavirus crisis, such as teleworking and virtual software innovations, with emotional intelligence consultant Justin Bariso arguing that a platform launched by the Greek National Tourism Organization is one such “brilliant” response to the challenges of the crisis indicated by the US tech mogul.

“The tourism industry is definitely one of the hardest hit by the pandemic. But maybe you can learn from ‘Greece from Home,’ a brilliant initiative by the Greek National Tourism Organization, in cooperation with Google,” Justin Bariso wrote in Inc magazine following an interview by LinkedIn Editor-in-Chief Daniel Roth with Gates on world responses to the pandemic and the economic and social recovery that needs to come after.

The “Greece from Home” platform was launched at the start of April by the GNTO and Marketing Greece, with the support of Google, and is aimed at reinforcing the country’s positive image during the Covid-19 pandemic by helping people around the world stay in touch with Greek culture and be inspired by the country’s attractions.

The initiative is also aimed at tourism professionals, helping them enhance their digital skills with the help of Google via the “Grow Greek Tourism Online” seminars, which are organized with the support of the Greek Ministry of Tourism. More than 1,000 people signed up to participate in the group seminars in the first 10 days of their launch.

“This site is also built on the principle of content marketing: using great online content to create a relationship with potential customers. Through YouTube videos and other content, creators give viewers a chance to tour archeological sites and museums, experience beautiful scenes of nature, and even take ‘walking’ tours or visit restaurants – all virtually, of course,” said Bariso of the initiative.

“Greece from Home” further leverages YouTube, with videos featuring popular figures including tennis ace Stefanos Tsitsipas and NBA star Giannis Antetokounmpo.

“Done right, your content might be able to bring in revenue through ads or product sales. And at the very least, it’s a way to keep in touch with your audience until they are willing (and able) to travel again,” he added.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: KLaban on April 14, 2020, 12:54:06 pm
Manoli, armand, many thanks for your contributions regarding Greece, they were much appreciated.

Keith
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on April 14, 2020, 01:06:59 pm
We got it.  You've been repeating your point for 34 pages.  Stay home. Well, the whole world is staying home.  Now what?  What is Greece doing now to get the tourists back? When are the Germans coming back to sip their ouzo and cafe?  What should the US do?  The rest of the world?

Now what: keep people home until the conditions are there that allow slow reopening. Several European countries are already slowly coming back to life, like in Austria, Denmark, Norway, Poland, Check Republic, Spain, and Italy. Such decisions always carry a risk, so it is better to listen to the specialists and continue to implement safety measures.

Now what: we get ready to face the economic crisis. Portugal will have a drop of the GDP of 8%, the highest in 100 years. Other countries will farebetter, others worse. But all will suffer. Estimate is that Portugalwill go back to 2019 results in 2021.

Getting tourists back: like Greece, Portugal has a lot of income from tourism. We will face a drop no doubt, but we started getting ready already:

https://econews.pt/2020/03/22/coronavirus-turismo-de-portugal-launches-campaign-this-is-the-time-to-stop/

Right now there is another campaign to convince portuguese to do tourism in Portugal. A win-win situation, as in Greece, because for at least 1 year no one will feel like taking avacation abroad.

What should the US do: what has been shown to work in other countries, in terms of the science aspect. Other parts are OT.

Rest of the World: as above.

Bottom line: whatever measures are taken, there is a risk associated with them. Unfortunately, risk management is something that is often not well understood.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 14, 2020, 01:19:01 pm
Manoli, armand, many thanks for your contributions regarding Greece, they were much appreciated.

Keith, thank you.
Thought you may also appreciate an NYT article on the 'Fauci's' this side of the Atlantic.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/world/europe/scientists-coronavirus-heroes.html?referringSource=articleShare

Manoli
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: KLaban on April 14, 2020, 02:11:53 pm
Keith, thank you.
Thought you may also appreciate an NYT article on the 'Fauci's' this side of the Atlantic.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/05/world/europe/scientists-coronavirus-heroes.html?referringSource=articleShare

Manoli

Thanks for that.

There's no doubt that respect for the scientific and medical sectors has blossomed whilst that for politicians - career and those wannabes  as witnessed on LuLa - has shrivelled.

Keith
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 14, 2020, 04:02:58 pm
Not 34 pages, but post #644.

**/off-topic**

I wish them a lot of luck.  The tourist industry and travel, cruise ships, hotels, air travel,Disney, etc are going to be hard hit for a long time.  I like traveling but I'm really nervous especially due to my age. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 14, 2020, 10:11:09 pm
After a few days of less than 2,000 deaths in USA, the daily death total jumped again to 2,400.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 14, 2020, 10:21:35 pm
Is it my imagination or is weekend data often a little wonky?

There is a footnote on Worldometer about 3000 deaths in New York whose classification is confused.

The footnote reads, 'New York City today has reported 3,778 additional deaths that have occurred since March 11 and have been classified as "probable," defined as follows: “decedent [...] had no known positive laboratory test for SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) but the death certificate lists as a cause of death “COVID-19” or an equivalent" [source]. We will add these to the New York State total as soon as it is determined whether the historical distribution can be obtained'



Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 14, 2020, 11:27:51 pm
The daily totals are fluctuating up and down, but the overall trend for Canada, USA, worldwide is still going up. OTOH, West European countries seem to be on an downward slope.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on April 15, 2020, 09:58:01 am
The daily totals are fluctuating up and down, but the overall trend for Canada, USA, worldwide is still going up. OTOH, West European countries seem to be on an downward slope.

In Portugal, as of late Ifind it more representative to look at:

1. 7 days moving daily average, to smooth out any "noise" introduced by the lagtime between testing and getting results. Also results seem to accumulate during weekends, which results in early week spikes of daily cases.

2. Numbers of patients addmited into hospitals.

3. Number of patients in ICU.

For the last 7 days, #1 is hovering at around 700, and #2 and #3 are slowly coming down.

Number of deaths today stands at 599, mostly older people, and about 1/3 in caring homes for older people. The latter I criticise a lot, because there was ample time in Portugal for government and institutions to prepare. By the time visits were prohibited, about 1 month ago, the virus was already there.

There is now talk of slowly opening up in May, but with many restrictions: limited number of people in restaurants, shops, etc, general use of non-cirurgical maks for people, etc. Every 30 working days, Portugal's GDP goes down 6%, so clearly a strict quarantine is not sustainable for long.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on April 15, 2020, 10:42:56 am
I am breaking my no posting about SARS-CoV-2 only to inform those who are interested that the weekly aggregations of my email newsletter are now up at:  https://agoldhammer.com/covid_19  If there are any LuLa readers who wish to subscribe to the "free" newsletter, send me a private message. 

Returning to radio silence.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 15, 2020, 10:58:51 am
I am breaking my no posting about SARS-CoV-2 only to inform those who are interested that the weekly aggregations of my email newsletter are now up at:  https://agoldhammer.com/covid_19  If there are any LuLa readers who wish to subscribe to the "free" newsletter, send me a private message. 

Returning to radio silence.

Thank you.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 15, 2020, 11:42:35 am
I am breaking my no posting about SARS-CoV-2 only to inform those who are interested that the weekly aggregations of my email newsletter are now up at:  https://agoldhammer.com/covid_19  If there are any LuLa readers who wish to subscribe to the "free" newsletter, send me a private message. 

Returning to radio silence.
Nice job Alan.  Two questions.  What are the odds for a cure remedy for those who have caught it?  What about a vaccine? Will the disease die out on its own or continue through the summer and fall? Will their be a new strain next year?  I'll send you these questions through direct email but would appreciate if you answer here so everyone an gain your insights. Thanks.  Alan K.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 15, 2020, 12:17:10 pm
This is what the governors are looking at and why they'll act sooner than later.  For one, NY Governor Cuomo is looking at a 78% decline in the NY manufacturing index.  The other economic news is just as dire. 

The economic data is even worse than Wall Street feared: ‘The economy is clearly in ruins here’

"Consumer and manufacturing reports for March showed the hit to the economy from the coronavirus was even swifter and deeper in the early weeks of the shutdown than expected.

March retail sales fell 8.7%, the most ever in government data, and New York regional manufacturing activity hit an all-time low, declining a shocking 78.2%. Industrial production slipped 5.4% and manufacturing was down 6.3%, a record reflecting in part the 28% decline in auto production as plants shut down."

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/15/the-economic-data-is-even-worse-than-wall-street-feared-the-economy-is-clearly-in-ruins-here.html
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on April 15, 2020, 12:34:48 pm
I am breaking my no posting about SARS-CoV-2 only to inform those who are interested that the weekly aggregations of my email newsletter are now up at:  https://agoldhammer.com/covid_19  If there are any LuLa readers who wish to subscribe to the "free" newsletter, send me a private message. 

Returning to radio silence.

Alan, thanks, impressive work.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on April 15, 2020, 12:46:42 pm
Nice job Alan.  Two questions.  What are the odds for a cure remedy for those who have caught it?  What about a vaccine? Will the disease die out on its own or continue through the summer and fall? Will their be a new strain next year?  I'll send you these questions through direct email but would appreciate if you answer here so everyone an gain your insights. Thanks.  Alan K.
It is highly likely that one of the vaccine trials will succeed.  Several of the vaccines being tested are entirely new delivery platforms and this is their first testing in humans.  We have no idea whether they will even work.  Some companies are using more traditional ways of making vaccines and I think stand a better chance of success. The bigger question is how much safety data will be required.  Most late stage vaccine trials enroll 50,000 patients so they can reliably detect a 1 in 10,000 rare adverse event.  Whether the public will tolerate a less tested vaccine that 'might' have some bad effects at a rate such as that will be a question for policy makers.  Personally, I would not accept a vaccine that does not pass that threshold.   

What we need is a good oral antiviral drug that can be given to those who are first diagnosed.  Unfortunately, none of the trial data that I have seen gives me any optimism.  We also need a drug that is 'relatively' safe as opposed to hydroxychloroquine which has some nasty side effects (it's half life in the body is measured in days not hours!!).  Remdesivir, an antiviral developed for Ebola, has shown a bit of promise but it has to be administered IV so it's use is limited.  It's also not clear at what stage in the illness it will be effective.  There are some monoclonal antibodies that slow down the immune response which may help those who are in the worst shape (patients whose immune system over react tend to have very poor clinical outcomes).  There is also work looking at using purified antibodies from those who have recovered.  While this on paper looks like it would work, sera from just one person can only treat 2 or maybe 3 people.  We will need to develop monoclonal antibodies that can be produced at large scale to substitute for this.  there is a lot of work going on in that area and we should have some clinical material in 1-2 months.

THIS IS ONLY MY OPINION:  The reason for shutting things down was to alleviate a total meltdown of the healthcare system.  there was a statistic in the paper today that maybe as many as 9000 healthcare workers contracted SARS-CoV-2.  Had we not engaged in severe social distancing things would have gotten even worse.  there would have been rolling shutdowns of many stores and manufacturing facilities had the pandemic continued without social distancing.  that would have had an adverse impact on the economy (look at what happened in Sioux Falls, SD where they had to shutter a meat processing plant because 400 people caught the virus).  I am optimistic that with a lot more testing we can understand the base rate of infection and make an intelligent decision on how to open things and what kind of controls are to be put in place.  Only with a well thought out testing regime can we then confidently identify hot spots quickly and take action.  Harvard economist Larry summers pointed out that each week we are shut down costs about $80 billion a week.  If we took a portion of that and invested it right now in testing scale up we could recoup the investment by opening things weeks ahead of the plodding schedule we are presently on.

Back to Radio Silence
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 15, 2020, 12:59:31 pm
Alan  What about gene therapy.  The fact that an Amur Tiger at the Bx. Zoo but not other cats was infected by a human handler shows the virus effects particular species.  The Amur tiger comes from China among other areas in Asia.  Maybe the virus started with one and was transferred to humans there.  In any case, is anyone looking into gene therapy and trying to find markers in the DNA?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: John Camp on April 15, 2020, 02:08:27 pm
Not exactly science, but definitely not politics:

Here in New Mexico, and I believe also in Arizona, the Navajo Indian Nation is really being hit hard. In a county dominated by the reservation, there have been 192 confirmed cases, and 10 deaths. Just out of curiosity, and because I'm an Iowa native, I clicked on the county that has Iowa's biggest reservation (which is not very big, the entire county has a population of only 16,000) has 108 confirmed cases and two deaths. This makes me wonder if Indian reservations are being hit harder than the general population, and if so, whether the cause might be genetic (lack of some kind of immunity, as with the early plagues that wiped out so many Indians during the European settlement here) or cultural. In the case of the Navajos, the talk I've heard is that the cause is likely cultural, with many multi-generational families living together, rather than the single-family homes typical of the rest of the U.S.

In Alan's post, he talks about being worried about 1 in 10,000 adverse event (which I assume means death or some other catastrophic illness as happened with the polio virus accident back in the 50s) but I'm of the opinion that a 1-in-10,000 as a theoretical possibility would be acceptable, given that the death rate among confirmed cases of the virus seem to be about 1% (one in a hundred.) It might be that such a vaccine could be targeted at the elderly, who seem to have much greater than a 1% death rate. We do that currently, with a flu vaccine designed specifically for the elderly, although I'm not sure whether that is a slightly different vaccine, or just a larger dose of the standard vaccine. If we do get a vaccine that doesn't have the full safety protocol, but is "believed" to be safe, I think the government should indemnify the manufacturer against claims.

I've been following the Sweden situation. Now 1,203 deaths with 11,927 confirmed cases of Covid-19. That's a death rate of 10% among confirmed cases.






Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 15, 2020, 03:15:31 pm
Not exactly science, but definitely not politics:

Here in New Mexico, and I believe also in Arizona, the Navajo Indian Nation is really being hit hard. In a county dominated by the reservation, there have been 192 confirmed cases, and 10 deaths. Just out of curiosity, and because I'm an Iowa native, I clicked on the county that has Iowa's biggest reservation (which is not very big, the entire county has a population of only 16,000) has 108 confirmed cases and two deaths. This makes me wonder if Indian reservations are being hit harder than the general population, and if so, whether the cause might be genetic (lack of some kind of immunity, as with the early plagues that wiped out so many Indians during the European settlement here) or cultural. In the case of the Navajos, the talk I've heard is that the cause is likely cultural, with many multi-generational families living together, rather than the single-family homes typical of the rest of the U.S.

In Alan's post, he talks about being worried about 1 in 10,000 adverse event (which I assume means death or some other catastrophic illness as happened with the polio virus accident back in the 50s) but I'm of the opinion that a 1-in-10,000 as a theoretical possibility would be acceptable, given that the death rate among confirmed cases of the virus seem to be about 1% (one in a hundred.) It might be that such a vaccine could be targeted at the elderly, who seem to have much greater than a 1% death rate. We do that currently, with a flu vaccine designed specifically for the elderly, although I'm not sure whether that is a slightly different vaccine, or just a larger dose of the standard vaccine. If we do get a vaccine that doesn't have the full safety protocol, but is "believed" to be safe, I think the government should indemnify the manufacturer against claims.

I've been following the Sweden situation. Now 1,203 deaths with 11,927 confirmed cases of Covid-19. That's a death rate of 10% among confirmed cases.

There has increasing worry about the state of things in Canada's northern reserves. Aside from whatever distancing issues there may be, e.g., larger numbers of people under one roof, hospital facilities in those locations would be inadequate to the task of coping with a Covid-19 outbreak. The folks woudl have to be flown elsewhere, not a simple thing.

That 10% number for Sweden seems like an outlier, comparable to the early numbers out of China. As Alan G. has said many times, until we get widespread testing of large numbers of people, we don't really know the actual rate of infection, although it was mentioned in another post that mortality seems to heading for the 0.3% to 1% range, which is plenty high enough.

It appears as though the US number of deaths has recently settled at 2000 per day, or at least it shows no obvious signs of increasing. But if it's true that the New York numbers are flattening, this means that they are increasing in other states. The new cases per day has been hovering at around 30,000 per day. As someone else suggested, a moving 7-day average plot would be nice to see.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 15, 2020, 07:32:48 pm
The Robert Koch Institute estimates that in Germany the R0 is now between 0.8-1.2.  The value represents how many people one positive patient will infect.  If it's below 1, it means the virus will run out of healthy hosts to infect. 

That’s good progress. 
Social distancing works.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on April 16, 2020, 04:18:32 am
Not exactly science, but definitely not politics:

Here in New Mexico, and I believe also in Arizona, the Navajo Indian Nation is really being hit hard. In a county dominated by the reservation, there have been 192 confirmed cases, and 10 deaths. Just out of curiosity, and because I'm an Iowa native, I clicked on the county that has Iowa's biggest reservation (which is not very big, the entire county has a population of only 16,000) has 108 confirmed cases and two deaths. This makes me wonder if Indian reservations are being hit harder than the general population, and if so, whether the cause might be genetic (lack of some kind of immunity, as with the early plagues that wiped out so many Indians during the European settlement here) or cultural. In the case of the Navajos, the talk I've heard is that the cause is likely cultural, with many multi-generational families living together, rather than the single-family homes typical of the rest of the U.S.

In Alan's post, he talks about being worried about 1 in 10,000 adverse event (which I assume means death or some other catastrophic illness as happened with the polio virus accident back in the 50s) but I'm of the opinion that a 1-in-10,000 as a theoretical possibility would be acceptable, given that the death rate among confirmed cases of the virus seem to be about 1% (one in a hundred.) It might be that such a vaccine could be targeted at the elderly, who seem to have much greater than a 1% death rate. We do that currently, with a flu vaccine designed specifically for the elderly, although I'm not sure whether that is a slightly different vaccine, or just a larger dose of the standard vaccine. If we do get a vaccine that doesn't have the full safety protocol, but is "believed" to be safe, I think the government should indemnify the manufacturer against claims.

I've been following the Sweden situation. Now 1,203 deaths with 11,927 confirmed cases of Covid-19. That's a death rate of 10% among confirmed cases.

I think the regional variability in social and economical conditions is one of the drivers of how the infection spreads. In Portugal, 60% of the cases are in the north, and some possible explanantions have been proposed:

1. Industries are mostly there, fashion, shoes, cars, etc. Strong ties to Italy and Spain. First cases were people returining from fashion fairs in Milan, or from Carnival break vacations in the snow in northern Italy.

2. When the state of emergency was declared, those factories kept on working at reduced levels, because that work can not be done at home, and wewanted to mitigate the impact on the economy.

3. Finally, families in the north are more traditional, in many homes 3 generations live together - with the increasing risk of children, who are mostly asymptomatic, infecting older people. This was similar to Italy, where schools were closed and children infected their grandparents.

4. One third of deaths in Portugal are in nursing homes for old people so clearly preparation was neglected. Similar to Italy and Spain.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on April 16, 2020, 04:25:11 am
The Robert Koch Institute estimates that in Germany the R0 is now between 0.8-1.2.  The value represents how many people one positive patient will infect.  If it's below 1, it means the virus will run out of healthy hosts to infect. 

That’s good progress. 
Social distancing works.

In Portugal the estimation now for R0 is 0.8. Scientists say that once it goes down to 0.7 it would be "safe" to reopen, with the necessary cautionary measures. The EU recently has proposed a set of reopening recommendations for EU countries to follow. But of course once countries start to reopen the R0 will go up again. The challenge will be to balance this "game".

Several factories have reopened yesterday (e.g. Continental Mabor), but only with half of the workers. The idea is to work in 14 days shifts, the workers being replaced on rotation. Of course with desinfection, masks, etc. We will get there, but we need to prepare for a second wave and for another winter without a vaccine.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Ray on April 16, 2020, 05:58:34 am
I tend to refrain from commenting on these Covid-19 threads because I'm retired, have no debts, have no health issues, have no children, and have an acreage property where I can grow more of my own food if the economy becomes catastrophically bad.

People who live in apartments in congested cities are in a completely different situation to mine, and I do sympathize with their fears and concerns.

However, the reason I'm making this post is the hope that some of you 'experts'  ;)  can clarify a very puzzling issue, regarding the number of Covid-19 deaths, per million of population, in certain countries.

I'm Australian, and am pleased at the relatively low total number of deaths from Covid-19, currently at 63, nation-wide, in a population of 25.5 million. The USA has approximately 13 times the population of Australia. Multiply 63 by 13 and one gets 819, a lot less than the current Covid-19 death rate in the USA, which is currently close to 30,000.

An explanation for the relatively low Covid-19 death rate in Australia is because we already have natural social distancing because we are such a large country with a small population. However, the majority of the population still live in congested cities such as Sydney, Melbourne, Perth and Brisbane.

An example of a country that has an even lower Covid-19 mortality rate than Australia, is Thailand. This is the most puzzling.

The current mortality rate in Thailand is just 46, yet Bangkok is one of the most visited cities in the world, rivaling Paris and London. The percentage of Chinese tourists in Thailand is greater than any other nationality. Considering that Thailand is not a fully developed nation, has lots of poverty and a very low minimum wage, and has very high air pollution from natural burn-off for agricultural purposes, and vehicles with inadequate emission controls, one would expect that Thailand's death rate from Covid-19 would be relatively high. Yet it isn't. It's amazingly low.

The population of Thailand is close to 70 million, yet its Covid-19 total deaths are significantly less than Australia's which has a much smaller population, and even more significantly less than so many European countries and the USA.

Any explanation, anyone?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 16, 2020, 06:48:27 am
However, the reason I'm making this post is the hope that some of you 'experts'  ;)  can clarify a very puzzling issue, regarding the number of Covid-19 deaths, per million of population, in certain countries.
[...]
Any explanation, anyone?

Ray - You better than anyone knows that until the data can be properly correlated and analysed, your question may be speculated on, but answered, it cannot.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 16, 2020, 06:57:55 am
Re: Thailand low infection and deaths - because of Masks and Testing?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 16, 2020, 07:01:28 am
As regards, damage limitation, this latest WHO / Trump 'blame' show is highlighting some unfortunate and unpalattable realities.

There is testimony and evidence emerging that the WHO properly warned, not just the USA, but another 194 nations asc well, of the dangers and pre-emptive actions and protections necessary as far back as mid-January.

Once the deaths subside, I anticipate this topic will be re-visited, with gusto and, in all likelihood to the detriment of a sizeable number of political figures.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: elliot_n on April 16, 2020, 07:28:23 am
There is testimony and evidence emerging that the WHO properly warned, not just the USA, but another 194 nations asc well, of the dangers and pre-emptive actions and protections necessary as far back as mid-January.

Nothing is 'emerging' — the WHO's warnings were loud, clear and well-circulated.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 16, 2020, 07:54:27 am
Nothing is 'emerging' — the WHO's warnings were loud, clear and well-circulated.

I was attempting to couch it in diplomatic terms, saving the vitriol for later and, hopefully, another thread.  [/we-need-a-new-choice-of-emojis]
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Ray on April 16, 2020, 09:21:17 am
Ray - You better than anyone knows that until the data can be properly correlated and analysed, your question may be speculated on, but answered, it cannot.

Thailand has an excellent health system, and all the news from Thailand I've read mentions extreme lock-downs, wide-spread testing in public for early symptoms, using temperature measurement devices pointed at the head, and severe penalties for those breaching the lock-down requirements.

There are numerous reports of small groups of people drinking together and having fun, being arrested by police. Even walking or exercising on certain beaches is banned, despite the reality of social distancing on a relatively deserted beach which should not pose a problem.

Wearing masks is generally required by law in all public areas, especially in supermarkets where entry is forbidden without a mask.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 16, 2020, 09:47:56 am
Thailand has an excellent health system, and all the news from Thailand I've read mentions extreme lock-downs, wide-spread testing in public for early symptoms, using temperature measurement devices pointed at the head, and severe penalties for those breaching the lock-down requirements.

Not uncommon, indeed essential.
As I said, we may speculate but statistical certainty will need to wait.
Further stats on www.worldometer.com/coronavirus
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 16, 2020, 10:20:58 am
Self explanatory.
The Good Law Project is headed by Jolyon Maugham QC.
The original NHS document is attached below.

(https://live.staticflickr.com/65535/49780299243_840b3115db_z.jpg) (https://flic.kr/p/2iQV3Dr)

https://goodlawproject.org/leaked-guidance/ (https://flic.kr/p/2iQV3Dr)
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Ray on April 16, 2020, 11:47:15 am
Quote
Leaked guidance from an NHS hospital trust reveals doctors are being told they are not required to put COVID-19 on death certificates.

Manoli,
If this is in fact what is happening in the U.K. then the deaths from Covid-19 are likely under-reported, yet the reported deaths in the U.K. from Covid-19 are still very significantly higher than in Thailand.

I've not come across any articles which suggest Thailand is under-reporting Covid-19 deaths, but I guess that could be an explanation. Here's a Wikipedia article which provides details of the progression of the pandemic in Thailand from its first case in January, and the way the government is tackling the problem.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Thailand
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 16, 2020, 12:01:36 pm
Probably overkill for most people on this forum.
Some actual data/literature used in day to day care of Covid patients: http://www.med.umich.edu/surgery/mcccn/
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Bart_van_der_Wolf on April 16, 2020, 12:32:15 pm
1) Current, preliminary (!), results from an ongoing test among blood-donors in the Netherlands shows that approx. (only) 3% have anti-bodies due to COVID-19.
The test population is chosen to be statistically relevant, and involves individuals 18 -79 years of age.

Again, this is an ongoing test and is not the final result. But it does show that building up herd-immunity would take very long under an intelligent lock-down regime. ALSO, having anti-bodies does not necessarily mean that people are immune and cannot become contagious again. It's too early to draw such conclusions.

2) A different research project (by the Radboud UMC) is focusing on finding anti-bodies in nasal secretion. This might help to better understand how the spreading of the virus by asymptomatic people (e.g. children) takes place.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on April 16, 2020, 12:34:00 pm
7 days moving average of number of cases, plotted against the number of days after the 100th case. It is clear why some countries are talking about reopening.

Portugal is the black line.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 16, 2020, 01:53:00 pm
Re: Thailand low infection and deaths - because of Masks and Testing?
In America, the experts were saying originally, that masks should only be worn by people who have the virus.  Now they say it's better if everyone wears them.  Maybe they said that originally to save the low stocked masks for medical workers.  Or maybe they didn't know what they were talking about.  Like I said, liars, damn liars and experts.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: faberryman on April 16, 2020, 02:04:25 pm
In America, the experts were saying originally, that masks should only be worn by people who have the virus.  Now they say it's better if everyone wears them.  Maybe they said that originally to save the low stocked masks for medical workers.  Or maybe they didn't know what they were talking about.  Like I said, liars, damn liars and experts.
You can't trust anyone, so just go with your gut.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 16, 2020, 02:56:19 pm
In America, the experts were saying originally, that masks should only be worn by people who have the virus.  Now they say it's better if everyone wears them.  Maybe they said that originally to save the low stocked masks for medical workers.  Or maybe they didn't know what they were talking about.  Like I said, liars, damn liars and experts.

They said it to conserve the masks for the professionals. However, if you make your own mask, you'll be protected and won't be taking the masks from the medical workers.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 16, 2020, 03:12:39 pm
In America, the experts were saying originally, that masks should only be worn by people who have the virus.  Now they say it's better if everyone wears them.  Maybe they said that originally to save the low stocked masks for medical workers.  Or maybe they didn't know what they were talking about.  Like I said, liars, damn liars and experts.

Just stay in the other thread, I promise I'll leave you alone there. You are probably the last person to make any comments about somebody's expertise, first you need to recall for more than few minutes what others are saying.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 16, 2020, 03:28:24 pm
They said it to conserve the masks for the professionals. However, if you make your own mask, you'll be protected and won't be taking the masks from the medical workers.
So the experts lied to us.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 16, 2020, 03:33:09 pm
Just stay in the other thread, I promise I'll leave you alone there. You are probably the last person to make any comments about somebody's expertise, first you need to recall for more than few minutes what others are saying.
I don;t need your approval to post in this thread.  Read Les's comment.  He said the experts deceived us putting us in danger so we wouldn't order masks and leave more for medical people.  A noble deed.  But a lie.  So how can you trust anything they say?   
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: faberryman on April 16, 2020, 03:44:19 pm
I don;t need your approval to post in this thread.  Read Les's comment.  He said the experts deceived us putting us in danger so we wouldn't order masks and leave more for medical people.  A noble deed.  But a lie.  So how can you trust anything they say?
You can't. Everything is a lie. Just make up your own reality.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Chris Kern on April 16, 2020, 03:51:03 pm
They said it to conserve the masks for the professionals. However, if you make your own mask, you'll be protected and won't be taking the masks from the medical workers.

The initial guidance was indeed intended to preserve medical masks ("surgical masks" and [K]N95 respirators) for those interacting with patients, and that remains part of the current guidance.  The updated guidance, at least in the United States, is based on later research showing that asymptomatic and presymptomatic individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 are capable of shedding the virus and infecting others.  In other words, the current guidance is for individuals to wear non-medical face coverings in places where it is difficult or impossible to maintain minumum physical distance in order to reduce the probability that they will make other nearby individuals sick.  No inconsistency there, just a change in the protocol based on new evidence.

I don;t need your approval to post in this thread.  Read Les's comment.  He said the experts deceived us putting us in danger . . .

That's certainly not what he said, and I presume it's not what he meant since he never mentioned anything suggesting a motive of "deceit."  And I agree with Armand Tanase that this kind of uninformed speculative chatter should be reserved for the other thread.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 16, 2020, 04:11:35 pm
I don;t need your approval to post in this thread.  Read Les's comment.  He said the experts deceived us putting us in danger so we wouldn't order masks and leave more for medical people.  A noble deed.  But a lie.  So how can you trust anything they say?

Obviously, otherwise you wouldn't have posted here for quite some time. You are just making up stuff where it doesn't exist and post it here; it might fly on the other thread and this should be reserved for something more objective.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 16, 2020, 04:12:27 pm
I forgot if I posted this
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 16, 2020, 06:10:29 pm
The initial guidance was indeed intended to preserve medical masks ("surgical masks" and [K]N95 respirators) for those interacting with patients, and that remains part of the current guidance.  The updated guidance, at least in the United States, is based on later research showing that asymptomatic and presymptomatic individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 are capable of shedding the virus and infecting others.  In other words, the current guidance is for individuals to wear non-medical face coverings in places where it is difficult or impossible to maintain minumum physical distance in order to reduce the probability that they will make other nearby individuals sick.  No inconsistency there, just a change in the protocol based on new evidence.

That's certainly not what he said, and I presume it's not what he meant since he never mentioned anything suggesting a motive of "deceit."  And I agree with Armand Tanase that this kind of uninformed speculative chatter should be reserved for the other thread.
Discussing medical protocol in a thread about the medical issues fits this thread.  You cannot have discussion about medical issues without discussing the efficacy of their advice.  Using "no politics" to silence opposing views is sticking your head in the sand. Just because you believe there was no deception doesn;t make it so.  I believe as do others that the advice was given originally because they needed PPE for medical personnel.  While I'm agreement with the plan, it's important that they should have been upfront with it to maintain credibility with other issues.  Why would I trust people, especially experts,  who are fooling me?  Curiously, I just searched Google and found that I wasn't alone.  Even the NY Times had an opinion piece about it by a professor of information science. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-masks.html

It also raises another important issue which is where else have they been wrong?  What other information are we getting that's off the mark either because of deliberate misleading or plain innocent mistakes?  Remember, their advice effects not only medical care.  It also effects how we intend to bring the country and the world back to normal operations.  Why should we trust them regarding these important issues when they apparently got a simple issue like the efficacy of a mask wrong?



Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: faberryman on April 16, 2020, 06:23:47 pm
Discussing medical protocol in a thread about the medical issues fits this thread.  You cannot have discussion about medical issues without discussing the efficacy of their advice.  Using "no politics" to silence opposing views is sticking your head in the sand. Just because you believe there was no deception doesn;t make it so.  I believe as do others that the advice was given originally because they needed PPE for medical personnel.  While I'm agreement with the plan, it's important that they should have been upfront with it to maintain credibility with other issues.  Why would I trust people, especially experts,  who are fooling me?  Curiously, I just searched Google and found that I wasn't alone.  Even the NY Times had an opinion piece about it by a professor of information science. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-masks.html

It also raises another important issue which is where else have they been wrong?  What other information are we getting that's off the mark either because of deliberate misleading or plain innocent mistakes?  Remember, their advice effects not only medical care.  It also effects how we intend to bring the country and the world back to normal operations.  Why should we trust them regarding these important issues when they apparently got a simple issue like the efficacy of a mask wrong?
You shouldn't listen to them. Do whatever you want to do. You know what's best for you.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on April 16, 2020, 06:26:46 pm
Discussing medical protocol in a thread about the medical issues fits this thread.  You cannot have discussion about medical issues without discussing the efficacy of their advice.  Using "no politics" to silence opposing views is sticking your head in the sand. Just because you believe there was no deception doesn;t make it so.  I believe as do others that the advice was given originally because they needed PPE for medical personnel.  While I'm agreement with the plan, it's important that they should have been upfront with it to maintain credibility with other issues.  Why would I trust people, especially experts,  who are fooling me?  Curiously, I just searched Google and found that I wasn't alone.  Even the NY Times had an opinion piece about it by a professor of information science. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-masks.html

It also raises another important issue which is where else have they been wrong?  What other information are we getting that's off the mark either because of deliberate misleading or plain innocent mistakes?  Remember, their advice effects not only medical care.  It also effects how we intend to bring the country and the world back to normal operations.  Why should we trust them regarding these important issues when they apparently got a simple issue like the efficacy of a mask wrong?

Alan, you've asked this question many times now in numerous threads. You just don't seem to trust experts in their fields.

I'll throw this back to you. If you don't trust the experts opinions...who's would you rather follow. Rather than asking that same question...why not let us know your alternative voice you'd listen to.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 16, 2020, 07:00:52 pm
Manoli,
If this is in fact what is happening in the U.K. then the deaths from Covid-19 are likely under-reported, yet the reported deaths in the U.K. from Covid-19 are still very significantly higher than in Thailand.

Ray,

Not suggesting that Thailand or any other country is deliberately under-reporting. My earlier post was just a heads-up as the QC made clear in his letter, and on which he is seeking further clarification. Thailand has excellent results so far, as do a few other countries. What has proved true is that countries who adopted social distancing early have benefited(*). Those who delayed have suffered in comparison.

There are plenty of ‘unexplained coincidences’ as well but I dont think its beneficial to speculate as to the ‘why‘, yet. Questions to be answered in the ‘fullness of time’ - and from my reading that will be ‘some time’ , ‘cos once we’re passed the peak there’s bound to be a fairly heavy bout of acrimonious/accusatory debate between the scientists and the politicos.

(*) combined with other measures, contact tracing and testing in particular.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 16, 2020, 07:04:31 pm
Discussing medical protocol in a thread about the medical issues fits this thread.  You cannot have discussion about medical issues without discussing the efficacy of their advice.  Using "no politics" to silence opposing views is sticking your head in the sand. Just because you believe there was no deception doesn;t make it so.  I believe as do others that the advice was given originally because they needed PPE for medical personnel.  While I'm agreement with the plan, it's important that they should have been upfront with it to maintain credibility with other issues.  Why would I trust people, especially experts,  who are fooling me?  Curiously, I just searched Google and found that I wasn't alone.  Even the NY Times had an opinion piece about it by a professor of information science. https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/17/opinion/coronavirus-face-masks.html

It also raises another important issue which is where else have they been wrong?  What other information are we getting that's off the mark either because of deliberate misleading or plain innocent mistakes?  Remember, their advice effects not only medical care.  It also effects how we intend to bring the country and the world back to normal operations.  Why should we trust them regarding these important issues when they apparently got a simple issue like the efficacy of a mask wrong?


...
Like I said, liars, damn liars and experts.

When you are writing that you are not looking for an opinion or factual discussion. That's why I said the other thread will serve you much better.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 16, 2020, 07:05:01 pm
Alan, you've asked this question many times now in numerous threads. You just don't seem to trust experts in their fields.

I'll throw this back to you. If you don't trust the experts opinions...who's would you rather follow. Rather than asking that same question...why not let us know your alternative voice you'd listen to.
I don't trust experts when I get a whiff of BS or incompetency from them.  Why would you?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 16, 2020, 07:06:50 pm
I don't trust experts when I get a whiff of BS or incompetency from them.  Why would you?

Did it ever cross your mind that maybe you don't understand the facts discussed and that's why you think it's BS ...
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 16, 2020, 07:09:03 pm
Did it ever cross your mind that maybe you don't understand the facts discussed and that's why you think it's BS ...
Your insults never end, do they?  When you can't debate with logic or heart, you resort to name calling. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on April 16, 2020, 07:17:24 pm
I don't trust experts when I get a whiff of BS or incompetency from them.  Why would you?

Didn't answer my question. If you don't trust the advice of experts...whose advice do you trust?

The other question is are you competent enough to know when an expert in the field is incompetent?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 16, 2020, 07:20:46 pm
Your insults never end, do they?  When you can't debate with logic or heart, you resort to name calling.

It's not name calling, it's a very serious question.
You often complain about pretty obvious stuff and what irks me the most, you forget what was discussed just a few pages before.
I wonder, how do you decide if what an expert at something says, is BS? You need some modicum of knowledge of that subject to be able to say that. Oh, wait, you just read it on the internet.


Last obvious stuff?
The masks usage: it was stated in the beginning that the general population should not use it in order to preserve them for the medical staff. Later, it was quite clearly said that you should use a mask to try to reduce the chance of infecting the others if you are asymptomatic, not to protect yourself.
The above were stated in these forums multiple times, and yet you start questioning those statements as if you just joined this forum, and you wonder why I question your understanding? How about you read what others are saying, for starters.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 16, 2020, 08:07:55 pm
As of today, number of US Covid-19 deaths (34580) exceeded the 2019-2019 flu deaths (34200), so if anybody still thinks this virus is less harmful than the flu, they should re-examine the virus information or their sanity.  Worldwide deaths up to this date exceeded 145,000. At the current rate, by end of April we may see globally 4-5 million cases and over 250,000 deaths.

Quote
CDC estimates that the burden of illness during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza. The number of influenza-associated illnesses that occurred last season was similar to the estimated number of influenza-associated illnesses during the 2012–2013 influenza season when an estimated 34 million people had symptomatic influenza illness.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Ray on April 16, 2020, 08:36:22 pm
Ray,

Not suggesting that Thailand or any other country is deliberately under-reporting. My earlier post was just a heads-up as the QC made clear in his letter, and on which he is seeking further clarification. Thailand has excellent results so far, as do a few other countries. What has proved true is that countries who adopted social distancing early have benefited(*). Those who delayed have suffered in comparison.

Fair enough. The particularly low 'reported' death rate in Thailand caught my attention because Thailand has been a favourite holiday destination for me in the past. However, I'm sure glad I didn't go there this January to experience the early lock-downs and cancelled air flights in and out of the country.  ;)

I suspect that the normal, wide-spread use of face masks every year, because of the regular and serious air pollution in many parts of Thailand, has contributed to the low death rate from Covid-19, as well as the early adoption of social distancing and various lock-downs.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 16, 2020, 09:20:59 pm
Didn't answer my question. If you don't trust the advice of experts...whose advice do you trust?

The other question is are you competent enough to know when an expert in the field is incompetent?
I went to three doctors for "second" opinions of what to do with a cancer I had once.  I got three different solutions which was the best course to follow. Anyone who listens to so-called experts without discernment is foolish.   

Look at what's happening now with moving forward.  Everyone is guessing using the best information they have right now.  But that info isn't complete.  Plus this disease is new.  No one can guarantee anything other than if you stay in your house and avoid contact with anyone, you'll be less likely to get it.  Well, that doesn't help much when officials have to make decisions.  The experts just don;t have all the answers.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 16, 2020, 09:35:27 pm
It's not name calling, it's a very serious question.
You often complain about pretty obvious stuff and what irks me the most, you forget what was discussed just a few pages before.
I wonder, how do you decide if what an expert at something says, is BS? You need some modicum of knowledge of that subject to be able to say that. Oh, wait, you just read it on the internet.


Last obvious stuff?
The masks usage: it was stated in the beginning that the general population should not use it in order to preserve them for the medical staff. Later, it was quite clearly said that you should use a mask to try to reduce the chance of infecting the others if you are asymptomatic, not to protect yourself.
The above were stated in these forums multiple times, and yet you start questioning those statements as if you just joined this forum, and you wonder why I question your understanding? How about you read what others are saying, for starters.
The experts said early on that masks won't help you from getting the disease so there's no point wearing them.  I believe part of the reason was to preserve the masks which were in limited quantity for the medical people.

« Reply #714 on: Today at 02:56:19 pm »
ReplyQuote
Quote from: Alan Klein on Today at 01:53:00 pm
In America, the experts were saying originally, that masks should only be worn by people who have the virus.  Now they say it's better if everyone wears them.  Maybe they said that originally to save the low stocked masks for medical workers.  Or maybe they didn't know what they were talking about.  Like I said, liars, damn liars and experts.

Les responds: They said it to conserve the masks for the professionals. However, if you make your own mask, you'll be protected and won't be taking the masks from the medical workers.. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 16, 2020, 09:46:53 pm
As of today, number of US Covid-19 deaths (34580) exceeded the 2019-2019 flu deaths (34200), so if anybody still thinks this virus is less harmful than the flu, they should re-examine the virus information or their sanity.  Worldwide deaths up to this date exceeded 145,000. At the current rate, by end of April we may see globally 4-5 million cases and over 250,000 deaths.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html
Re-check your statistics.  You're not looking at them clearly.  Regarding flu there were 1 billion cases and 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide.  So while Covid is serious, and all the deaths are not in yet, it doesn;t seem worse than seasonal flu.  In fact there are more deaths with flu than covid. 

Infections
COVID-19: Approximately 2,076,015 cases worldwide; 639,664 cases in the U.S. as of Apr. 16, 2020.*

Flu: Estimated 1 billion cases worldwide; 9.3 million to 45 million cases in the U.S. per year.

Deaths
COVID-19: Approximately 138,008 deaths reported worldwide; 30,985 deaths in the U.S., as of Apr. 16, 2020.*

Flu: 291,000 to 646,000 deaths worldwide; 12,000 to 61,000 deaths in the U.S. per year.
https://www.hopkinsmedicine.org/health/conditions-and-diseases/coronavirus/coronavirus-disease-2019-vs-the-flu
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on April 16, 2020, 09:50:54 pm
I went to three doctors for "second" opinions of what to do with a cancer I had once.  I got three different solutions which was the best course to follow. Anyone who listens to so-called experts without discernment is foolish.   

Look at what's happening now with moving forward.  Everyone is guessing using the best information they have right now.  But that info isn't complete.  Plus this disease is new.  No one can guarantee anything other than if you stay in your house and avoid contact with anyone, you'll be less likely to get it.  Well, that doesn't help much when officials have to make decisions.  The experts just don;t have all the answers.

Yes the experts don't know all the answers. So again...who would you listen to for advice...if not the expert? Say for your cancer, if not the expert in cancers...who would you rather get your advice from...the bar tender at your favourite bar.

Many things in the world don't have a binary answer...but my gut says the experts in the area are much more likely to get things right than someone who knows nothing about the subject.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 16, 2020, 10:10:16 pm
Yes the experts don't know all the answers. So again...who would you listen to for advice...if not the expert? Say for your cancer, if not the expert in cancers...who would you rather get your advice from...the bar tender at your favourite bar.

Many things in the world don't have a binary answer...but my gut says the experts in the area are much more likely to get things right than someone who knows nothing about the subject.
Well of course. After all, my wife and I have been isolating at home for four weeks now.  But I take experts with a grain of salt. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: RichDesmond on April 16, 2020, 10:11:17 pm
... yet, it doesn;t seem worse than seasonal flu.  In fact there are more deaths with flu than covid... 
From something I posted on another forum:

For the "it's just the flu" and "lots more people die in car accidents" crowd:

In NYC, over an average 30 day period, about 4400 people die. Over the last 30 days, over 9500 have. Far more than died even in September, 2001.
Of those ~5000 excess deaths, only about 3000 were officially counted as due to CV-19. Which means that the official tally is likely significantly low.
Think about this. The mortality rate in NYC is over double what it normally is. That means that CV-19 is killing more people in NYC than all other causes of death, combined.

Nationally last week, CV-19 was the second leading cause of death, behind only heart disease. (and not by much, 12,626 vs 12,392) Flu and pneumonia were about 1250, car accidents in a typical week claim about 600-650.

While social distancing is working to flatten the curve, the number of deaths each day is still rising. Imagine what it would be like if we had carried on with business as usual.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on April 17, 2020, 04:25:11 am
I don't trust experts when I get a whiff of BS or incompetency from them.  Why would you?

You sound like someone who is often mentioned in the other thread. Better stick to that one.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Paulo Bizarro on April 17, 2020, 04:36:59 am
I went to three doctors for "second" opinions of what to do with a cancer I had once.  I got three different solutions which was the best course to follow. Anyone who listens to so-called experts without discernment is foolish.   

Look at what's happening now with moving forward.  Everyone is guessing using the best information they have right now.  But that info isn't complete.  Plus this disease is new.  No one can guarantee anything other than if you stay in your house and avoid contact with anyone, you'll be less likely to get it.  Well, that doesn't help much when officials have to make decisions.  The experts just don;t have all the answers.

It's called uncertainty management. It's a new disease, scientists are studying it for 4 months only. It requires politicians to make decisions with the best information available on a daily basis. Of course there is a risk, which needs to be managed. The experts will only have all the answers in a time frame of 1 to 2 years.

The amount of work being done by the experts that you say are lying to you is admirable. Under normal circumstances a vaccine takes years to be developed and trialed; that experts are estimating a vaccine in about 1 year to 1 1/2 years, which is amazing. We are seeing an unprecendented collaboration between academia, industry, and governments to achieve that goal ASAP.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Jim Pascoe on April 17, 2020, 06:06:25 am
Well of course. After all, my wife and I have been isolating at home for four weeks now.  But I take experts with a grain of salt.

Alan - every time I look at this forum I seem to find you disputing what is happening or the suggested means of dealing with it.  You are asking questions, but you don't appear to listen to or like the answers.  I can see you are confused and worried.  As you are retired, why not just relax, stay at home, avoid news except perhaps once every few days to catch up, and stop stressing.  Yes, some of the experts might be wrong - and of course none of us except the very uninformed would take everything we hear as the gospel.  The fact is, unless we all carry on as normal and let the virus rip through society in a few months, some people are going to have to isolate or distance themselves for many months.  Perhaps even a year.  That might be you.  But there is no shortcut until a vaccine is found.

As they say - there are few certainties in life except for death and taxation.  The coronavirus is a new disease and even the experts are learning anew each week that passes.  It will all become very clear in a couple of years - let's try to make sure we are still alive to learn about it ourselves.

Jim
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 17, 2020, 11:02:36 am
This Japanese experiment shows how easily coronavirus can spread – and what you can do about it
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/coronavirus-microdroplets-talking-breathing-spread-covid-19
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: elliot_n on April 17, 2020, 11:12:09 am
This Japanese experiment shows how easily coronavirus can spread – and what you can do about it
https://www.weforum.org/agenda/2020/04/coronavirus-microdroplets-talking-breathing-spread-covid-19

Interesting article. I hadn't realised the WHO recommend only 1 metre social distancing. Here in the UK it's 2 metres (6' 6").
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: John Camp on April 17, 2020, 12:33:10 pm
Here's the most interesting site I've found for providing Covid-19 stats for the U.S. Good breakdowns on a variety of parameters, by state.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Guillermo Luijk on April 17, 2020, 05:20:28 pm
Update of the evolution of deaths plot.
Reminder (X-axis=Deaths per million inhabitants, Y-axis=Daily deaths per million inhabitants):
- Countries in the diagonal still don't control the disease.
- Countries bending down are already flattening the curve.
- The higher a country gets the more relative population have died.

All subject to the coronavirus deaths accounting criteria on each country.

- Belgium shows terrible relative numbers and trend.
- Spain, Italy and at some distance France, UK and the Netherlands, have quite high numbers but are controlling the disease
- Bad trend in the USA but still with low relative numbers (the disease arrived later)
- Very good figures and trend in Germany and Portugal

(http://guillermoluijk.com/misc/venciendocoronavirus.png)

Regards
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: BobShaw on April 17, 2020, 08:08:44 pm
Here's the most interesting site I've found for providing Covid-19 stats for the U.S. Good breakdowns on a variety of parameters, by state.

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/
That is a good site.
The thing that I noticed is that death rates in the US per case appear much higher than most countries.
I would think that would indicate that the case is not being discovered until the chance of recovery is lower or the the identified case is not being treated effectively due to resources.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: BobShaw on April 17, 2020, 08:13:53 pm
- Bad trend in the USA but still with low relative numbers (the disease arrived later)

Regards

I doubt that the disease arrived later in the US than any other country.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Guillermo Luijk on April 17, 2020, 09:37:36 pm
I doubt that the disease arrived later in the US than any other country.
Irrelevant semantics. Call it spread instead of arrive as you like.

(https://i.ibb.co/Jzk2QFV/coronavirususeurope.png)

Regards
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: RichDesmond on April 17, 2020, 10:04:28 pm
That is a good site.
The thing that I noticed is that death rates in the US per case appear much higher than most countries.
I would think that would indicate that the case is not being discovered until the chance of recovery is lower or the the identified case is not being treated effectively due to resources.

It's basically due to the low rate of testing in the US.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: BobShaw on April 17, 2020, 10:17:48 pm
Irrelevant semantics. Call it spread instead of arrive as you like.

Regards
Do you really believe that (the disease arrived in the US after every other country) ?
That no one infected went to the USA before someone infected went to Iceland?
That the US went from zero cases to 10,000 new cases per day in a week?

Anyway, if that was really the case that every country had it before the US then why didn't they see it coming?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 17, 2020, 10:24:28 pm
Alan - every time I look at this forum I seem to find you disputing what is happening or the suggested means of dealing with it.  You are asking questions, but you don't appear to listen to or like the answers.  I can see you are confused and worried.  As you are retired, why not just relax, stay at home, avoid news except perhaps once every few days to catch up, and stop stressing.  Yes, some of the experts might be wrong - and of course none of us except the very uninformed would take everything we hear as the gospel.  The fact is, unless we all carry on as normal and let the virus rip through society in a few months, some people are going to have to isolate or distance themselves for many months.  Perhaps even a year.  That might be you.  But there is no shortcut until a vaccine is found.

As they say - there are few certainties in life except for death and taxation.  The coronavirus is a new disease and even the experts are learning anew each week that passes.  It will all become very clear in a couple of years - let's try to make sure we are still alive to learn about it ourselves.

Jim
Thanks for agreeing with my previous post when I said that I take experts with a grain of salt. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 17, 2020, 10:29:07 pm
Do you really believe that (the disease arrived in the US after every other country) ?
That no one infected went to the USA before someone infected went to Iceland?
That the US went from zero cases to 10,000 new cases per day in a week?

Anyway, if that was the really case that every country had it before the US then why didn't they see it coming?
If it arrived in the US at the same time, why did the cases pop up two weeks later? Could environment, weather, native genes, or other factors affect the incubation period?  These are things worthy of study.  They may help find a cure or vaccine. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 17, 2020, 10:38:14 pm
Thanks for agreeing with my previous post when I said that I take experts with a grain of salt.

That’s not what you said. It’s huge difference between taking what experts say with a grain of salt and you actually said, multiple times:

....
Like I said, liars, damn liars and experts.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 17, 2020, 10:43:52 pm
If it arrived in the US at the same time, why did the cases pop up two weeks later? Could environment, weather, native genes, or other factors affect the incubation period?  These are things worthy of study.  They may help find a cure or vaccine. 
I just found this article.  It appears that there are three Covid viruses that showed up at different times and different places.  That could account for the delays of outbreak.  The article also mentions that the virus could have been out there as early as last September and that Wuhan might not be the initial location. 
https://www.newsweek.com/coronavirus-outbreak-september-not-wuhan-1498566
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 17, 2020, 10:56:20 pm
That’s not what you said. It’s huge difference between taking what experts say with a grain of salt and you actually said, multiple times:

Regarding my statement about  liars, damn liars and experts.  It isn't my expression.  And that's the truth.

Witnesses in trials give testimony about truth.  They are either truthful or lying.  Experts give testimony which is not truth but rather their opinion and for which they cannot be called liars.  Opinions are not truth.  It's worse. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: RichDesmond on April 17, 2020, 11:53:16 pm
Regarding my statement about  liars, damn liars and experts.  It isn't my expression.  And that's the truth.

Witnesses in trials give testimony about truth.  They are either truthful or lying.  Experts give testimony which is not truth but rather their opinion and for which they cannot be called liars.  Opinions are not truth.  It's worse.
I take it you're not someone who'd ever had to give expert testimony?

An expert isn't someone who knows everything. That person doesn't exist, even regarding very narrow fields of knowledge.

I really don't understand what you mean by "Opinions are not truth.  It's worse."

As an expert in my (very narrow) field I'm occasionally called to render an opinion. Depending on the question at hand I can sometimes say with absolute certainty that X is true. More often I can say that X is likely to be true, and give a confidence band. My opinions are not infallible, but in all cases, are much more likely to be correct than those of some random guy off the street.
If you had a question about a matter that I'm the expert in, would you listen to me or to the random guy? Would you conclude that you can't tell, and that a proven track record in that field has no value? Do you value knowledge and experience? How do decide that what you "know" is true? Do you analyze the thought process that went into what you have decided is "true"?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 18, 2020, 12:15:12 am
I take it you're not someone who'd ever had to give expert testimony?

An expert isn't someone who knows everything. That person doesn't exist, even regarding very narrow fields of knowledge.

I really don't understand what you mean by "Opinions are not truth.  It's worse."

As an expert in my (very narrow) field I'm occasionally called to render an opinion. Depending on the question at hand I can sometimes say with absolute certainty that X is true. More often I can say that X is likely to be true, and give a confidence band. My opinions are not infallible, but in all cases, are much more likely to be correct than those of some random guy off the street.
If you had a question about a matter that I'm the expert in, would you listen to me or to the random guy? Would you conclude that you can't tell, and that a proven track record in that field has no value? Do you value knowledge and experience? How do decide that what you "know" is true? Do you analyze the thought process that went into what you have decided is "true"?
I gave a weeks testimony (1500 pages) in a wrongful death case and spent a week in US Federal Court defending myself and my company in another case that cost $250,000 in legal fees.  I had my own expert witness as did my adversary.  The jury didn't believe my expert but believed theirs.  Two experts.  I lost the case and my business.  So yes, I've had some experience with expert witnesses. 

What makes experts saying what they say worse than regular people, is that with the latter, you consider if they're telling the truth.  With experts, you assume they are and could more easily be taken in by what they say which could be plain wrong even if not a lie.  So lots of misinformation is spread around by experts.  We listen to financial experts and invest our money only to see it disappear at the next economic slump.  Didn't you get in on the real estate boom right before its bust in 2008.  We have an operation on their advice and find out the the cure winds up worse than the disease because they didn't tell us all the problems that could occur beforehand.  We get foreign affairs advice from international experts and find ourselves in a war we could have avoided if we avoided the experts.    Experts can be very dangerous. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: RichDesmond on April 18, 2020, 12:56:31 am
I gave a weeks testimony (1500 pages) in a wrongful death case and spent a week in US Federal Court defending myself and my company in another case that cost $250,000 in legal fees.  I had my own expert witness as did my adversary.  The jury didn't believe my expert but believed theirs.  Two experts.  I lost the case and my business.  So yes, I've had some experience with expert witnesses. 

What makes experts saying what they say worse than regular people, is that with the latter, you consider if they're telling the truth.  With experts, you assume they are and could more easily be taken in by what they say which could be plain wrong even if not a lie.  So lots of misinformation is spread around by experts.  We listen to financial experts and invest our money only to see it disappear at the next economic slump.  Didn't you get in on the real estate boom right before its bust in 2008.  We have an operation on their advice and find out the the cure winds up worse than the disease because they didn't tell us all the problems that could occur beforehand.  We get foreign affairs advice from international experts and find ourselves in a war we could have avoided if we avoided the experts.    Experts can be very dangerous.
Ok, so, answer my last couple of questions. Basically, what do you know, and how do you know you know it? If you consider experts dangerous, how do gain knowledge and make decisions about matters you have no personal knowledge?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: BobShaw on April 18, 2020, 01:05:19 am
What makes experts saying what they say worse than regular people, is that with the latter, you consider if they're telling the truth.
In both cases the person may believe that they are telling the truth, it is just one is based on their field and one is based on their memory.
I have been in court cases where a witness gave a heartfelt rendition of what happened and obviously believed it, only to have their memory proved wrong.
The expert should be able to give reasons why it is true or likely to be true or could be true.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 18, 2020, 03:39:24 am
We appear to be approaching a period of declining new instances and fatalities. Not tempting fate, but there will be, rightly, a review of the events and the timeline in the lead up to this human disaster. Not an anti-Trump (only), nor a Dems v Reps round of boxing, post - intended as a heads-up for a debate that will surely have repercussions. There are three distinct periods to be reviewed;  the Dec19-early January, Jan23- up to the first Covid-19 fatality, and then early March up to and on from today. Not US centric, it's on both sides of the Atlantic and beyond.

I've excerpted a post from The Guardian , the link to the full article is below.

Quote
On 22 January, it was in this setting that the WHO emergency committee convened to make a pivotal decision on whether to advise the organisation to declare a “public health emergency of international concern” (PHEIC) – a formal red alert for the world.

The WHO had been sharing information with member states constantly since the first cluster of pneumonia cases was first identified in the Chinese city of Wuhan at the end of December, but declaring a PHEIC still had huge symbolic importance.

The WHO director general, Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, sat in the SHOC with his top advisers watching as a succession of speakers gave their views on the screens in front of them.

First there were reports from China, and then Japan and Thailand where cases had been recently confirmed. Then it was the turn of the 15 members and six advisers on the emergency committee, drawn from around the world.

The debate was highly technical but it had one critical issue at its heart. It was known by then that the virus had spread from person to person, but the question was how easily?

If human-to-human transmission was only happening in close quarters, in families, or between patients and health workers, then perhaps it could be largely contained without a worldwide alert, and all the global economic disruption that entailed. If the virus was spreading freely among communities, there was not a moment to lose.

The emergency committee was split down the middle on the question. So Tedros told it to convene again the next day, in the hope new data might create a consensus.

“Tedros’s only obligation under the law is to convene a committee but not to follow it. But he feels that politically he needs to get a unanimous decision before he acts or at least an overwhelming majority,” Lawrence Gostin, a professor of public health law at Georgetown University, said.

The second day’s meeting however, changed no one’s mind, and the impasse remained. Tedros had the committee adjourn pending further study and put it on notice to reconvene at short notice. A international health emergency was declared a week later, on 30 January, after clear evidence of community spread of Covid-19 had emerged.
[...]
In a hail of accusations hurled at the WHO in recent days, Trump has accused it of withholding critical information about the danger of Covid-19, and being under the control of China.

None of the accusations are supported by the facts.

China argued against declaring an emergency on 22 January, but could not have carried the argument alone. The other emergency members and advisers came were experts from the US, Thailand, Russia, France, South Korea, Canada, Japan, Netherlands, Australia, Senegal, Singapore, Saudi Arabia, Sweden, and New Zealand.

Their advice is confidential, but for the vote to have been split, several western, or western-aligned, representatives must have voted with Beijing.

While the emergency committee took a week to decide to declare a PHEIC, Trump spent more than a month after that playing down the threat to the US, during which the country fell weeks behind the rest of the world in diagnostic testing and stockpiling essential equipment.

There is no evidence to support Trump’s claim that the WHO hid information at China’s behest. The US is well represented in the top ranks of the organisation. There were more than a dozen officials from the US Center for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) embedded in the WHO in January and February.

US health leaders were part of regular conference calls, weekly or twice weekly, beginning on 7 January. From 10 January those calls included warnings about the risk of human-to-human transmission.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/18/caught-in-a-superpower-struggle-the-inside-story-of-the-whos-response-to-coronavirus
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on April 18, 2020, 11:05:31 am
If it arrived in the US at the same time, why did the cases pop up two weeks later? Could environment, weather, native genes, or other factors affect the incubation period?  These are things worthy of study.  They may help find a cure or vaccine.

The cases popped up later because there was no testing in place at the beginning to locate the cases. By the time people started dying, it was 2 weeks gone.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 18, 2020, 11:20:02 am
Ok, so, answer my last couple of questions. Basically, what do you know, and how do you know you know it? If you consider experts dangerous, how do gain knowledge and make decisions about matters you have no personal knowledge?
I never said I don't listen to experts.  I said I question what they say because I've been burned.  I'm not a robot taking directions.  You have to use some discernment when it comes to advice.  After all, do you do everything you wife tells you to do? :)
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 18, 2020, 11:31:17 am
In both cases the person may believe that they are telling the truth, it is just one is based on their field and one is based on their memory.
I have been in court cases where a witness gave a heartfelt rendition of what happened and obviously believed it, only to have their memory proved wrong.
The expert should be able to give reasons why it is true or likely to be true or could be true.

That's true.  But then, both experts in a trial representing opposite sides should give the same testimony. The truth is the truth.  Obviously, that's not what happens.  Is one of them lying?  Are they both distorting the truth?  Are they just cherry picking the facts that best represents their client's interests?  Often, it's the latter.  That's what makes experts so dangerous.  Because we give them so much leeway and trust what they say as being irreproachable.  Listening to non-experts, we just say well, they're lying. Or they're trolling us.  Or they don't know what they're talking about. Their credibility is suspect from the beginning. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 18, 2020, 11:35:48 am
We appear to be approaching a period of declining new instances and fatalities. Not tempting fate, but there will be, rightly, a review of the events and the timeline in the lead up to this human disaster. Not an anti-Trump (only), nor a Dems v Reps round of boxing, post - intended as a heads-up for a debate that will surely have repercussions. There are three distinct periods to be reviewed;  the Dec19-early January, Jan23- up to the first Covid-19 fatality, and then early March up to and on from today. Not US centric, it's on both sides of the Atlantic and beyond.

I've excerpted a post from The Guardian , the link to the full article is below.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/18/caught-in-a-superpower-struggle-the-inside-story-of-the-whos-response-to-coronavirus

WHO had been in China's pocket for years.  Who in WHO was getting paid off, I don't know.  However, their rulings always supported China and their action was delayed deliberately to protect China as long as they could. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 18, 2020, 11:37:44 am
The cases popped up later because there was no testing in place at the beginning to locate the cases. By the time people started dying, it was 2 weeks gone.
Testing has nothing to do with deaths.  It was deaths that occured at different times.  Why?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: PeterAit on April 18, 2020, 12:41:45 pm
People who are pushing for opening up the economy really soon should read this. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/17/us/coronavirus-testing-states.html
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on April 18, 2020, 12:46:30 pm
Testing has nothing to do with deaths.  It was deaths that occured at different times.  Why?

Like I said until you test, you have no idea, even with deaths. Maybe all those early Covid deaths were chalked up to seasonal flu deaths.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 18, 2020, 01:10:12 pm
People who are pushing for opening up the economy really soon should read this. https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/17/us/coronavirus-testing-states.html
It appears in NJ where I live, they're only testing people who appear sick. So what does that prove?  There isn't enough tests or time to really do major testing of the general public.  So what's the whole point of testing? Even if they test you today, tomorrow someone can cough on you and you get sick tomorrow.  Will you test every other day? Are you to test 330,000,000 Americans every other day?  My friend got the virus, stayed home to recover, never was tested, refused to go to the hospital because people die in hospitals. and is now recovering. If they test you and you have it, they tell you to stay home until you recover unless you really need to go to the hospital.  Do I need a test to tell me that?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 18, 2020, 01:25:02 pm
It appears in NJ where I live, they're only testing people who appear sick. So what does that prove?  There isn't enough tests or time to really do major testing of the general public.  So what's the whole point of testing? Even if they test you today, tomorrow someone can cough on you and you get sick tomorrow.  Will you test every other day? Are you to test 330,000,000 Americans every other day?  My friend got the virus, stayed home to recover, never was tested, refused to go to the hospital because people die in hospitals. and is now recovering. If they test you and you have it, they tell you to stay home until you recover unless you really need to go to the hospital.  Do I need a test to tell me that?

As you say, if someone shows the virus symptoms, there is not much point in testing them. just to confirm it.
The main benefit of testing is to catch asymptomatic or early-stage cases and tell them to stay at home.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: elliot_n on April 18, 2020, 01:40:12 pm
So what's the whole point of testing?

The point of testing to find out who is infected so that you can quarantine them to stop the infection spreading further.

You also need to trace all of their contacts, test them, and quarantine the positives.

This is basic pandemic control, as recommended by the WHO.

The US attempted to do this at the beginning of the outbreak, but failed. That is why there is a lockdown. Now you get to try again. But to do this successfully you need many more tests, and a whole army of contact-tracers.

(Most other countries are in the same position.)
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 18, 2020, 01:44:22 pm
As you say, if someone shows the virus symptoms, there is not much point in testing them. just to confirm it.
The main benefit of testing is to catch asymptomatic or early-stage cases and tell them to stay at home.
What good is testing a small percentage of the population? In NJ they've tested 1 of 75 residents.  That's since the beginning of testing weeks ago.  So if 74 of 75 people have not been tested, how do you know who has the virus to isolate?  99% of the people weren't tested.  Plus you could be tested today, be clean, and then get it tomorrow.

The only way I see how testing helps us is if you test on a truly random basis.  Like polling, you only need a small sampling.  You can estimate by extrapolation what's the percentage of infected in the whole population.  That could help determine when to open a specific region for regular business.  But right now, at least in NJ, they only testing key personnel like police, EMT, and nurses, or civilians who appear to have symptoms and show up at the testing line.  So current testing, at least in NJ,  will not provide general infection rates of the normal population.  It also won't catch those who are infected in the normal population.  It will only flag those key people who might be infected and shouldn't go to work and confirm a few infections of civilians who show up for the test.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/13/nyregion/coronavirus-testing.html
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 18, 2020, 01:48:21 pm
The point of testing to find out who is infected so that you can quarantine them to stop the infection spreading further.

You also need to trace all of their contacts, test them, and quarantine the positives.

This is basic pandemic control, as recommended by the WHO.

The US attempted to do this at the beginning of the outbreak, but failed. That is why there is a lockdown. Now you get to try again. But to do this successfully you need many more tests, and a whole army of contact-tracers.

(Most other countries are in the same position.)

See my last post.  In NJ, they tested 1 of 75 people.  The other 74 were not tested.  So how can you quarantine people who who are positive if 99% of them weren't tested? 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Bart_van_der_Wolf on April 18, 2020, 01:55:22 pm
The point of testing to find out who is infected so that you can quarantine them to stop the infection spreading further.

You also need to trace all of their contacts, test them, and quarantine the positives.

This is basic pandemic control, as recommended by the WHO.

The US attempted to do this at the beginning of the outbreak, but failed. That is why there is a lockdown. Now you get to try again. But to do this successfully you need many more tests, and a whole army of contact-tracers.

(Most other countries are in the same position.)

Correct, this is the "Containment phase". It also requires follow up testing of contacts if someone tests positive for the virus.
The lack of testing capacity, either from the availability of the tests themselves or from the (unsuccessful) follow-up tracing of contacts, will result in the next phase.

That next phase is "Mitigation", e.g. by an indiscriminate lockdown.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Bart_van_der_Wolf on April 18, 2020, 02:02:46 pm
See my last post.  In NJ, they tested 1 of 75 people.  The other 74 were not tested.  So how can you quarantine people who who are positive if 99% of them weren't tested?

I'm not familiar with the specifics of the NJ tests.
Were they done in the "Containment" phase?

Were they done (and how?) to prove the existence of the active virus, or are they serum tests to check for antibodies (indicating that the subject has been exposed to the virus in an earlier stage)?

P.S. a technical semantic comment, people who have not been proven to be infected can be placed in "Quarantine", while those who tested positive are placed in "Isolation".
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 18, 2020, 02:03:20 pm
Correct, this is the "Containment phase". It also requires follow up testing of contacts if someone tests positive for the virus.
The lack of testing capacity, either from the availability of the tests themselves or from the (unsuccessful) follow-up tracing of contacts, will result in the next phase.

That next phase is "Mitigation", e.g. by an indiscriminate lockdown.

The only way to find those infected is to test the entire population at the same time, an impossible feat even if you have all the tests which no country does.  Then you isolate everyone who has it.  In 14 days, the whole population can get back to normal activity.  There's no one left to spread it. 

Of course, no country can test the entire population.  That's why Phase 2 mitigation is required. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Bart_van_der_Wolf on April 18, 2020, 02:06:11 pm
The only way to find those infected is to test the entire population at the same time, an impossible feat even if you have all the tests which no country does.  Then you isolate everyone who has it.  In 14 days, the whole population can get back to normal activity.  There's no one left to spread it. 

Of course, no country can test the entire population.  That's why Phase 2 mitigation is required.

Not really, in the early stages tracing of contacts of contacts of contacts, will soon cover almost all contageous subjects. But one needs to do it early on.

Most (all?) countries lacked testing capacity, so they soon had to move on to Mitigation.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: elliot_n on April 18, 2020, 02:07:37 pm
So how can you quarantine people who who are positive if 99% of them weren't tested? 

You can't. Testing needs to be scaled up massively if you are ever going to come out of your lockdown.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 18, 2020, 02:10:43 pm
I'm not familiar with the specifics of the NJ tests.
Were they done in the "Containment" phase?

Were they done (and how?) to prove the existence of the active virus, or are they serum tests to check for antibodies (indicating that the subject has been exposed to the virus in an earlier stage)?

P.S. a technical semantic comment, people who have not been proven to be infected can be placed in "Quarantine", while those who tested positive are placed in "Isolation".
Your confusing questions have nothing to do with my statement.  You can't find all those infected unless you test everyone and that's impossible. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Bart_van_der_Wolf on April 18, 2020, 02:13:37 pm
You can't. Testing needs to be scaled up massively if you are ever going to come out of your lockdown.

Indeed, but the goal in most cases was/is to avoid ICUs being overwhelmed, and in many countries that seems to be successful.
Only with a reproduction number substantially below 1.0 will the virus infections decline.

Once there is a vaccine in adequate quantities, which may take till February 2021, one can create herd immunity which will drive the reproduction number down.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: elliot_n on April 18, 2020, 02:14:05 pm
You can't find all those infected unless you test everyone and that's impossible. 

Why?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 18, 2020, 02:20:42 pm
You can't. Testing needs to be scaled up massively if you are ever going to come out of your lockdown.
But no one is suggesting that we can test everyone.  That's impossible.  That's a political argument to blame Trump for not having enough testing.  But no country can test all their people.   Italy has performed tests at the highest rate.  Only around 23 per thousand individuals. So 977 of the thousand were not tested.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/13/nyregion/coronavirus-testing.html
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 18, 2020, 02:22:17 pm
Why?
How do you know who's infected if you haven't tested them? 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: elliot_n on April 18, 2020, 02:27:34 pm
How do you know who's infected if you haven't tested them? 

I'm asking why, in an advanced country, is it impossible to test everyone?

(You don't need to test everyone, but you do need to test a helluva lot more than you're testing now.)


Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: elliot_n on April 18, 2020, 02:31:08 pm
That's a political argument to blame Trump for not having enough testing.

On the contrary, a ramping up of testing is exactly what Trump is proposing in his 'Open Up America Again' plan.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 18, 2020, 02:37:16 pm
Alan ,

You just cant control yourself, 12 posts today alone. Recycling the same old. It's not a chat room , it's a forum. I've had too many PM 's complaining and sadly you just insist on the 'bull in a china shop' approach and carry on regardless.

Appeal to all who contributed here. Please don't feed they who troll if and when it's reopened. Now it's locked.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on April 20, 2020, 04:10:24 pm
Breaking radio silence.  There is a really good paper I read this morning on a vaccine candidate being developed in China.  The abstract and paper are here:  https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.046375v1  It's is going into clinical trials this week and is the third vaccine being tested in China.  This particular vaccine is the first that has convincing animal data, showing clear protection.  My hunch is that China will have the first vaccine that gets licensed for broad use.  Huge amount of irony if this does happen.

Back to radio silence.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 21, 2020, 01:03:53 am
A new type of email extortions is coming.

Quote
In emails that have been circulating in Germany for a few weeks now, the extortionists now write that they would infect all family members with the Sars-CoV-2 coronavirus. "Believe me, I can infect them all," it says in an email like this. To prevent this, the victims should transfer the equivalent of $ 4,000 in Bitcoin within 24 hours.

"We are now investigating several cases in which extortion emails with the threat of infection with the corona virus were sent," said Attorney General Thomas Goger from the Bavarian cybercrime central office ZCB. However, according to experts, criminals are sometimes in possession of private details of their victims. In order to make the extortion more threatening, the hackers send a password to an online account of their victims.

https://www.spiegel.de/netzwelt/web/cybercrime-hacker-drohen-familien-mit-corona-infektion-und-fordern-bitcoin-a-ac9e8945-edc1-456d-8a6b-32515e2293c1
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 21, 2020, 01:23:37 am
French couple who left their underage children at home and went on European trip was stopped by Bavarian police. They wanted to travel all over Europe.

Quote
A couple from France had apparently taken a Europe-wide city tour in the middle of the corona crisis - leaving three underage children at home. The 38-year-old and her 37-year-old partner had been stopped by a patrol in Siegsdorf in Bavaria last Friday, as the police headquarters in Upper Bavaria announced. The couple were in the car, had a toddler with them, and claimed to be on a city visit.

The family had previously been refused entry to Austria at the border at Bad Reichenhall. As it turned out, they were already being pursued in their home country: according to the police, the couple had simply left three other underage children in France. The children therefore turned to the French police, who arranged for the parents to be resettled. According to the investigators, the couple had already traveled 1,400 kilometers at the time of the check. How the family managed to enter Germany despite border controls is not known, said a police spokeswoman. In Bavaria, because of the exit restrictions, only those who have a valid reason can leave the house. A vacation trip is not included, so the police issued them a fine. This was processed by "depositing a security deposit on the spot", the report said. According to the spokeswoman, it was a three-digit sum.

https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/justiz/bayern-polizei-stoppt-paar-auf-europareise-minderjaehrige-kinder-daheim-gelassen-a-1b718f7e-8430-4841-aba1-d34099b1e50e
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 21, 2020, 05:42:24 am
On the French aircraft carrier "Charles de Gaulle", more than half of the 2000-man crew is infected with the virus.

Quote
The "Charles de Gaulle" had left her home port on January 21, 2019. It ran out to take part in "Operation Chammal" against the terrorist militia "Islamic State"; Operations in Syria and Libya were flown by the French aircraft carrier.

In mid-March this year she made a stopover in Brest on the Atlantic coast. The mission was about to end. In view of the increasing corona cases in the country, the usual family visits on board the aircraft carrier were canceled. But the soldiers were given permission to go ashore what was probably a fatal decision. In addition, 52 new crew members came on board before the "Charles de Gaulle" departed on March 16. That same evening, Macron announced a nationwide curfew of fourteen days.

Inside the huge aircraft carrier, it's very tight: the men sleep in bunk beds, sometimes up to twenty of them are in a cabin. The safety distance on the corridors and stair ladders of the "Charles de Gaulle" can hardly be kept. If you are traveling from deck to deck on the steep stairways, you have to hold on to the handrails so as not to fall. The commander of the "Charles de Gaulle" sticks to the continuation of the journey in spite of everything and writes a letter to the families of the soldiers on March 20th: "The aircraft carrier remains in use to defend the interests of France and to show our determination to act together with our allies. "

Meanwhile, scientists are deriving new knowledge from the involuntary floating laboratory test. More than half of the 1046 infected soldiers showed no or only very weak symptoms. A similar observation was made by the Americans, who are struggling with hundreds of infections on their aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt. "This means that there is likely to be a significant number of asymptomatic outcomes, particularly among younger people," said Jean-François Delfraissy, president of the Corona Crisis Scientific Council.

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/corona-auf-flugzeugtraeger-charles-de-gaulle-schwimmender-laborversuch-a-1c6b4130-34a1-40ca-9ecf-d88668e942bc
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: KLaban on April 21, 2020, 08:59:16 am
Breaking radio silence.  There is a really good paper I read this morning on a vaccine candidate being developed in China.  The abstract and paper are here:  https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.046375v1  It's is going into clinical trials this week and is the third vaccine being tested in China.  This particular vaccine is the first that has convincing animal data, showing clear protection.  My hunch is that China will have the first vaccine that gets licensed for broad use.  Huge amount of irony if this does happen.

Back to radio silence.

Why on earth radio silence? You are one of the few contributing to these Covid-19 threads that has a clue.

I've read several articles on the history of pandemics that state second waves, when they have struck, are often even more deadly. Perhaps you could give us your opinion?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Robert Roaldi on April 21, 2020, 10:00:19 am
An informative film short from Cambridge Univ about the Spanish Flu and viruses in general, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3x1aLAw_xkY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3x1aLAw_xkY). About 11 min long.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: BobShaw on April 22, 2020, 07:06:19 pm
An informative film short from Cambridge Univ about the Spanish Flu and viruses in general, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3x1aLAw_xkY (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3x1aLAw_xkY). About 11 min long.
An interesting film. My father often spoke of the "Pneumonic Flu" rather than the "Spanish Flu". Everyone was getting it and dying in the town he lived in so he hopped on a horse and left. The people dying were mainly younger people too. It is interesting that it was called the Spanish Flu because the Spanish media were the first to write about it when in fact it started elsewhere.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: John Camp on April 22, 2020, 07:45:38 pm
More than 2,500 Covid-19 deaths in the US in the last 24 hours. Even if the rate slows a bit, we'll be well past 60,000 before the end of the month. 60,000 is the estimated number of flu deaths in the worst flu season in the past ten years, and we'll have taken only a month and a half with Covid-19 to surpass that total.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Chris Kern on April 22, 2020, 08:37:57 pm
For those who haven't seen it yet, here is a link to the latest update (http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates) from the University of Washington’s (Seattle) Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, whose data-driven models are preferred by the Trump Administration over the more theoretical ones produced by the Imperial College (London) model.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 22, 2020, 08:58:50 pm
For those who haven't seen it yet, here is a link to the latest update (http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates) from the University of Washington’s (Seattle) Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, whose data-driven models are preferred by the Trump Administration over the more theoretical ones produced by the Imperial College (London) model.
GIGO Garbage In = Garbage Out.  What is the basis of their projections when this is the first time we've been through this?   They're using a 1 per 1,000,000 cases as some sort of standard.  Why not 2 or 5 out of a million?  It's arbitrary.  No one will really know until we start opening up and seeing what happens.  At least with hurricanes, you have decades of storms you can put in your models to project where they are going.  And even the models, and there are dozens of them,  predict different tracks. 

I think it's good that the CDC set up some conservative standard.  But the president is letting the 50 governors decide what they want to do in their states.  This gives us a great experiment to see what works best.  By not having a one size fits all policy, we'll get to see what actually happens in the real world taking different paths.  If some states jump the gun, then they'll suffer.  But they will teach the rest of the states an important lesson.  If some states open early, and we find that not too many problems occur, then we'll learn a different lesson.  All we've been doing to date is arguing who's right based on no experience and little precedent.  We're going to educate ourselves over the next few weeks in what really works and what really doesn't.  It will also make it easier to handle if it comes back in the future.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Chris Kern on April 22, 2020, 09:05:31 pm
GIGO Garbage In = Garbage Out.  What is the basis of their projections when this is the first time we've been through this?   They're using a 1 per 1,000,000 cases as some sort of standard.  Why not 2 or 5 out of a million?  It's arbitrary.

Please confine this type of uninformed, tendentious, speculative comment to the political ("playpen") thread.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: chez on April 22, 2020, 09:17:57 pm
More than 2,500 Covid-19 deaths in the US in the last 24 hours. Even if the rate slows a bit, we'll be well past 60,000 before the end of the month. 60,000 is the estimated number of flu deaths in the worst flu season in the past ten years, and we'll have taken only a month and a half with Covid-19 to surpass that total.

Let's not forget the isolation and distancing measures in place to slow down the virus. I shudder to think where we'd be at world wide if we just treated this like the flu.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 22, 2020, 09:34:39 pm
Please confine this type of uninformed, tendentious, speculative comment to the political ("playpen") thread.
My post is not political.  It's questioning the science behind their theory  Your post and their theory are as speculative as anyone else's.  To argue that someone's theory of how we should do things is the only truth, is just a way to shut up someone else's viewpoint.  It's a logical argument I'm making.  Why should anyone take what some publication says as the truth.  To not argue it's deficiencies is stacking the deck.  And who are you to make that determination that they're correct?  Frankly, if Jeremy decides to stop me from posting to this thread based on this, or the OP figures he should halt the thread again because he doesn't like opposing viewpoints, I'll be glad to go away and let you both preach to the choir on your own. It would be a  pyrrhic victory proving your prejudice on how to determine truth. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: John Camp on April 22, 2020, 09:42:46 pm
For those who haven't seen it yet, here is a link to the latest update (http://www.healthdata.org/covid/updates) from the University of Washington’s (Seattle) Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, whose data-driven models are preferred by the Trump Administration over the more theoretical ones produced by the Imperial College (London) model.

A very interesting link. A lot of people don't understand exactly how this model works (including Anderson Cooper, who kept asking the guy how much testing we needed for the model to work, and the guy kept telling him that we didn't need any testing -- what we needed was to push down the infection rate to below 1, by any means, and we could contain the virus.)

One thing I take from this model, if it's correct, is that Georgia is in a heap of trouble.

Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Chris Kern on April 22, 2020, 10:03:06 pm
One thing I take from this model, if it's correct, is that Georgia is in a heap of trouble.

Yesterday's update of the University of Washington model apparently is what prompted President Trump to say at today's White House press briefing that he disagrees with Georgia Governor Brian Kemp's decision to relax the restrictions on certain nonessential businesses that inherently require individuals to be in close proximity, such as spas, beauty salons, tattoo parlors, and barbershops.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 22, 2020, 10:33:22 pm
A very interesting link. A lot of people don't understand exactly how this model works (including Anderson Cooper, who kept asking the guy how much testing we needed for the model to work, and the guy kept telling him that we didn't need any testing -- what we needed was to push down the infection rate to below 1, by any means, and we could contain the virus.)

One thing I take from this model, if it's correct, is that Georgia is in a heap of trouble.


I'm in Anderson's corner.  Why not 0?  Why not 2?  1 out of 1,000,000 is an arbitrary human contrived number.  Viruses don't count. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 22, 2020, 10:35:43 pm
Yesterday's update of the University of Washington model apparently is what prompted President Trump to say at today's White House press briefing that he disagrees with Georgia Governor Brian Kemp's decision to relax the restrictions on certain nonessential businesses that inherently require individuals to be in close proximity, such as spas, beauty salons, tattoo parlors, and barbershops.
Political statements belong in the other thread.  :)
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 22, 2020, 10:48:03 pm
My post is not political.  It's questioning the science behind their theory  Your post and their theory are as speculative as anyone else's.  To argue that someone's theory of how we should do things is the only truth, is just a way to shut up someone else's viewpoint.  It's a logical argument I'm making.  Why should anyone take what some publication says as the truth.  To not argue it's deficiencies is stacking the deck.  And who are you to make that determination that they're correct?  Frankly, if Jeremy decides to stop me from posting to this thread based on this, or the OP figures he should halt the thread again because he doesn't like opposing viewpoints, I'll be glad to go away and let you both preach to the choir on your own. It would be a  pyrrhic victory proving your prejudice on how to determine truth.

Let me make it easier for you: when you keep throwing Trump did that, Trump does this, etc, the post should go to the other side.
Questioning the models is reasonable, but you can't contain yourself to just that.


The models unfortunately depends on many factors and the statistical interpretations. By definition they cannot be exact but try to estimate based on what we know. Perfect? Of course not, it's already proven. Is there anything better? No.
Here is some basic look into why they differ: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/22/upshot/coronavirus-models.html?campaign_id=57&emc=edit_ne_20200422&instance_id=17870&nl=evening-briefing&regi_id=67698600&segment_id=25772&te=1&user_id=a0c2889b363b214306ce6c8ef2136194
For example the IHME (washington) looks at how the disease evolved in other places, while others look at actual data of how the virus spreads, etc. So the latter have the potential to be more accurate but unfortunately there are still uncertainties regarding Covid.

Many will make adjustments based on actual deaths and there is an issue of reporting.

As I said before, I don't look at the actual absolute numbers but the timings and trends but to be honest, I don't need to, it's beyond my paygrade. I'm sure those who actually make decisions based on models know significantly more details.

One more thing, most will take into account the significant distancing; once this is loosened I doubt those numbers will be valid anymore.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 22, 2020, 11:20:44 pm
Let me make it easier for you: when you keep throwing Trump did that, Trump does this, etc, the post should go to the other side.
Questioning the models is reasonable, but you can't contain yourself to just that.


The models unfortunately depends on many factors and the statistical interpretations. By definition they cannot be exact but try to estimate based on what we know. Perfect? Of course not, it's already proven. Is there anything better? No.
Here is some basic look into why they differ: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/22/upshot/coronavirus-models.html?campaign_id=57&emc=edit_ne_20200422&instance_id=17870&nl=evening-briefing&regi_id=67698600&segment_id=25772&te=1&user_id=a0c2889b363b214306ce6c8ef2136194
For example the IHME (washington) looks at how the disease evolved in other places, while others look at actual data of how the virus spreads, etc. So the latter have the potential to be more accurate but unfortunately there are still uncertainties regarding Covid.

Many will make adjustments based on actual deaths and there is an issue of reporting.

As I said before, I don't look at the actual absolute numbers but the timings and trends but to be honest, I don't need to, it's beyond my paygrade. I'm sure those who actually make decisions based on models know significantly more details.

One more thing, most will take into account the significant distancing; once this is loosened I doubt those numbers will be valid anymore.
Nothing wrong with rough guidelines.  But they're rough.  Having no real history, it's hard to set up the algorithms.  It's a lot of guesswork.  Think of the stock market.  You'd think with all the thousands of experts and years of record keeping, they'd get projections right.  Who would have thought oil would cost -$39 a barrel?  Minus!!! That happened yesterday.  No one wanted the oil.  You had to pay people to take it off your hands.  Like your garbage. 

In any case, now we're going to have 50 experiments in 50 states to see who does best and who does worst and everywhere in between.  Different time frames will be selected by the governors.  There will be different rules, different monitoring, different testing.  This is what's best about the American federal system.  We get to experiment a lot and learn from each state.  That can't happen in a centralized government nation where one rule affects the entire country.  If the first state who opens up gets damaged because the virus picks up too much, the rest of the 49 states will back off and wait saving more people from infections and deaths.  On the other hand, if the first state has no major problems, the other 49 states will move up the re-open dates and maybe save the US economy.  We'll know pretty soon. 
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 22, 2020, 11:29:53 pm
Yesterday's update of the University of Washington model apparently is what prompted President Trump to say at today's White House press briefing that he disagrees with Georgia Governor Brian Kemp's decision to relax the restrictions on certain nonessential businesses that inherently require individuals to be in close proximity, such as spas, beauty salons, tattoo parlors, and barbershops.

That was actually quite smart comment. Put the tattoo salons on the 2050 re-open list.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 23, 2020, 12:44:52 am
That was actually quite smart comment. Put the tattoo salons on the 2050 re-open list.
Maybe I can go to a tattoo parlor to get a haircut. I'm starting to look like Larry.
https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_fill,g_auto,h_1248,w_2220/f_auto,q_auto,w_1100/v1555321935/shape/mentalfloss/stooges_primary.jpg
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 23, 2020, 12:58:08 am
Sweden resisted a lockdown, and its capital Stockholm is expected to reach ‘herd immunity’ in weeks
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 23, 2020, 03:38:54 am
Sweden resisted a lockdown, and its capital Stockholm is expected to reach ‘herd immunity’ in weeks
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html

One side effect of this approach will be reduced old age security payouts.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 23, 2020, 04:09:27 am
Walgreens reports that they have now toilet paper, but are running low on large size condoms. That could have some serious implications in 2021.

Quote
Trojan Magnum Large Size Condoms
Due to unusually high demand, we're experiencing limited item availability and significant delays that will affect your delivery date.

Quote
Malaysia’s Karex Bhd makes one in every five condoms globally. Global supply has fallen by almost 50% while its stockpile is set to last for just another two months. Karex has not produced a single condom from its three Malaysian factories for more than a week due to a lockdown imposed by the government to halt the spread of the virus. That’s already a shortfall of 100 million condoms, normally marketed internationally by brands such as Durex, supplied to state healthcare systems such as Britain’s NHS or distributed by aid programs such as the UN Population Fund.

The company was given permission to restart production on Friday, but with only 50 per cent of its workforce, under a special exemption for critical industries. “It will take time to jumpstart factories and we will struggle to keep up with demand at half capacity,” Chief Executive Goh Miah Kiat told Reuters. “We are going to see a global shortage of condoms everywhere, which is going to be scary,” he said. “My concern is that for a lot of humanitarian programs deep down in Africa, the shortage will not just be two weeks or a month. That shortage can run into months.”

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/its-still-an-essential-to-have-global-shortage-of-condoms-as-covid-19-pandemic-hits-worlds-biggest-producers
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Ray on April 23, 2020, 07:32:56 am
Blood-pressure drugs are in the crosshairs of COVID-19 research.
https://www.physiciansweekly.com/blood-pressure-drugs-are-in/

"Scientists are baffled by how the coronavirus attacks the body – killing many patients while barely affecting others.
A disproportionate number of patients hospitalized by COVID-19 .....have high blood pressure.

An estimated 100 million U.S. residents suffer from high blood pressure, which increases the risk of heart disease, stroke and kidney failure.

There is evidence that the drugs may increase the presence of an enzyme – ACE2 – that produces hormones that lower blood pressure by widening blood vessels. That’s normally a good thing. But the coronavirus also targets ACE2 and has developed spikes that can latch on to the enzyme and penetrate cells, researchers have found. So more enzymes provide more targets for the virus, potentially increasing the chance of infection or making it more severe."


Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 23, 2020, 08:22:00 am
Interesting op-ed piece from the NYT - 'silent hypoxia'.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/opinion/coronavirus-testing-pneumonia.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 23, 2020, 08:29:17 am
One side effect of this approach will be reduced old age security payouts.
As a 75 year old, that was exactly what I was thinking about.   :(  Younger population, lower national health insurance, stronger stock.  Of course, the guy who recommended and implemented this said they are of course concerned (sic) about the old age population and doing everything to help them.  But the truth is, it may work out best for the old people as well.  If the herd immunity works, that will protect them in the future.  We could find out in a year or so, that Sweden's procedure is the best method.  While the rest of us may have another bout with this disease next year, they may ride it out with no or little difficulty.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 23, 2020, 08:33:11 am
 
Walgreens reports that they have now toilet paper, but are running low on large size condoms. That could have some serious implications in 2021.

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/its-still-an-essential-to-have-global-shortage-of-condoms-as-covid-19-pandemic-hits-worlds-biggest-producers

Unfortunately, that's not one of my problems.  ???
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 23, 2020, 08:44:41 am
Blood-pressure drugs are in the crosshairs of COVID-19 research.
https://www.physiciansweekly.com/blood-pressure-drugs-are-in/

"Scientists are baffled by how the coronavirus attacks the body – killing many patients while barely affecting others.
A disproportionate number of patients hospitalized by COVID-19 .....have high blood pressure.

An estimated 100 million U.S. residents suffer from high blood pressure, which increases the risk of heart disease, stroke and kidney failure.

There is evidence that the drugs may increase the presence of an enzyme – ACE2 – that produces hormones that lower blood pressure by widening blood vessels. That’s normally a good thing. But the coronavirus also targets ACE2 and has developed spikes that can latch on to the enzyme and penetrate cells, researchers have found. So more enzymes provide more targets for the virus, potentially increasing the chance of infection or making it more severe."



Another thing I got to worry about. ACE inhibitors.  Alan G:  Have you come across any papers on this or research?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 23, 2020, 08:52:25 am
Another thing I got to worry about. ACE inhibitors.  Alan G:  Have you come across any papers on this or research?

Yes, this is quite worrisome. I wonder if any cardiologists and pharmacists are aware of this finding.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Manoli on April 23, 2020, 08:58:48 am
A very short monograph on Covid-19, by one Peter Kolchinsky.

Quote

While not technically alive, there's an evil genius to viruses that never ceases to amaze me. It's one reason I became a virologist. A recent Nature paper reveal a remarkable trick SARS-Cov-2 learnt that makes it nastier than the first SARS. Both viruses attach via their external spike protein to a protein on our cells called ACE2. Think of it as a particular doorknob that the virus knows how to turn. Every virus has a particular type of doorknob that it attaches to and turns so it can enter (infect) a cell.

For example, HIV has to turn two doorknobs: CD4 and typically CCR5. MERS attached to one called DPP4. All our cells are covered in all kinds of proteins that make them distinctive from one another. Those proteins aren’t there to let in viruses. They have all kinds of functions such as regulating blood pressure, our immune response, sugar levels in our blood, etc.  But viruses have evolved to grab onto one or more proteins to gain entry into cells, where they hijack the cell’s machinery to make more viruses. (Viruses can't replicate on their own & hence, are not quite alive).

So what viruses see are a bunch of houses w/ varying doorknobs & they try to spread through the neighborhood (our bodies) looking for houses (cells) covered in the doorknobs that they know how to turn. HIV enters T cells b/c T cells are covered in CD4 & CCR5 doorknobs that HIV knows how to turn. That makes HIV the kind of virus that destroys our immune system. Well, the ACE2 doorknob that SARS-1 & SARS-2 use is present on a variety of cells, including those in our lungs & throat. SARS-1 would enter a person via a droplet in the air (from cough) & quickly start infecting lung cells, causing severe damage person could really feel (i.e. become symptomatic). In other words, SARS-1 quickly made its presence known. In some patients, SARS-1 would go into the upper airways to replicate from where it could spread to others with a cough (or just breathing). But b/c SARS-1 patients got very sick from all the virus replicating in their lungs, they were quarantined before others got close enough to get sneezed or coughed on.

SARS-2, on the other hand, takes up residence in the throat cells first, which doesn’t cause significant symptoms. The person can remain asymptomatic or might not think they have anything worse than a cold. And from that person’s throat it can readily spread to others. Over the course of a week, in some patients, it will move into the lung neighborhood and replicate just as SARS-1 would, causing severe symptoms, by which point the person is quarantined, but no matter since it had successfully spread.

So SARS-1 was a comparatively dumb virus. It went straight for the lungs, announced itself before it could spread to others, and so got social distanced into extinction. But SAR-2, the one plaguing us now, is stealthier, spreading first before revealing itself (and causing harm).

What’s the take-away for all of us? It’s that beating this virus means social distancing & wearing masks even if we think we aren’t infected. Because we might be. The virus might be replicating in our throats without us knowing (that’s its evil plan!), so put up a roadblock.

Peter Kolchinsky
Virologist, Author ' The Great American Drug Deal'

Also,
https://www.city-journal.org/coronavirus-vaccine

Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 23, 2020, 10:06:51 am
Blood-pressure drugs are in the crosshairs of COVID-19 research.
https://www.physiciansweekly.com/blood-pressure-drugs-are-in/

"Scientists are baffled by how the coronavirus attacks the body – killing many patients while barely affecting others.
A disproportionate number of patients hospitalized by COVID-19 .....have high blood pressure.

An estimated 100 million U.S. residents suffer from high blood pressure, which increases the risk of heart disease, stroke and kidney failure.

There is evidence that the drugs may increase the presence of an enzyme – ACE2 – that produces hormones that lower blood pressure by widening blood vessels. That’s normally a good thing. But the coronavirus also targets ACE2 and has developed spikes that can latch on to the enzyme and penetrate cells, researchers have found. So more enzymes provide more targets for the virus, potentially increasing the chance of infection or making it more severe."


Ray, thank you for this link.
Since all hospitals with C19 patients have the information on their patient's medications, it would be relatively quick and simple for them to confirm or reject this theory.
Even better, anybody who has the clearance to access this data, could aggregate the information from all hospitals in his country or state and then draw the conclusions from a much larger sample.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Goldhammer on April 23, 2020, 10:30:34 am
Breaking Radio Silence -  of course I am masking up when I go to the store to stock up on provisions.  I like to find interesting vendors who are making a contribution to the pandemic effort.  I have purchased bow ties from Lisa Eaton who runs a small shop up in Maine.  She started making cotton masks in answer to a request from local EMS folks.  I purchased five of her masks about 10 days ago.  I got an email from her today with the latest patterns and guess what ----- a very cool RGB mask with hex codes!  Just what every photographer needs.  Maybe you can even do a camera profile by taking a picture of the mask!!! 

Here's a link that shows the picture:  https://www.bowtie.com/#!/Adult-Face-Mask-Hex-Code-Color-Map/p/192059155/category=20799076  there are more nice patterns on the site as well.

I have no financial interest in Ms. Eaton's business.

Back to radio silence!
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 23, 2020, 10:44:24 am
Another thing I got to worry about. ACE inhibitors.  ....

The current recommendations is to not stop them if you are already taking them.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 23, 2020, 10:54:30 am
Yes, this is quite worrisome. I wonder if any cardiologists and pharmacists are aware of this finding.
You mentioned to me once that cardiologists put their patients on ACE inhibitors as a standard procedure.  My wife was put on them, but she stopped because her regular doctor told her she didn't need it.  Meanwhile I'm still on them because I supposedly had hypertension (high blood pressure) and last year I had a triple bypass.  I'm going to have to move to a cave before this is over, if it ever ends.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 23, 2020, 11:03:29 am
The current recommendations is to not stop them if you are already taking them.
That makes sense.  Thanks for the input.  I have a call out to my cardiologist.  I suspect he will confirm that.  It's just that it adds another risk factor and I have enough of them.  I'm starting to feel like Bubble Boy from Seinfeld.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 23, 2020, 11:04:49 am
Yes, this is quite worrisome. I wonder if any cardiologists and pharmacists are aware of this finding.

Probably but as I said above it doesn't really matter right because the recommendation is not to stop them (because of fear of corona). The benefit of taking them outweighs the risks, at least with the current info that we have. Even if this virus uses ACE2 to enter the cells, it's not clear that taking the ACEI will change your clinical course.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 23, 2020, 11:07:50 am
The current recommendations is to not stop them if you are already taking them.

The current recommendation is most likely based on the old data preceding this new finding about C19 and ACE2.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 23, 2020, 11:08:01 am
That makes sense.  Thanks for the input.  I have a call out to my cardiologist.  I suspect he will confirm that.  It's just that it adds another risk factor and I have enough of them.  I'm starting to feel like Bubble Boy from Seinfeld.

You're welcome.
Talking to your cardiologist it's obviously the best course. ACEI are one of the few drugs that made pretty large differences in outcomes of heart failure and hypertension. So far your chances to have cardiovascular events, particularly if you stop them, are higher than having the corona and being seriously affected by it.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 23, 2020, 11:18:58 am
The current recommendation is most likely based on the old data preceding this new finding about C19 and ACE2.

No, it's based exactly on this finding. That's why there is a comment about it.

There are actually 2 schools of thought, both based on some theoretical models and not so great quality studies.

1. ACEI are bad
- it's because ACEI inhibit the ACE receptor and the body, trying to compensate, overregulates the expressions of ACE2 which is used by SARS-Cov-2 to enter the cells

2. ACEI are good
- many of these patients that don't do well, have cardiovascular comorbidities, for which ACEI are beneficial.


There is no good data if any of these is more important than the other or they just balance out.

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763803
https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/JAHA.120.016509
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7154066/
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsr2005760


Again, once we know more these recs might change but with the current data the safest it's to just continue the course. Particularly if you are at home, because even then the chances are in your favor.
If there is a question mark it's for patients sick enough to come to the hospital, at which point the physicians there will be involved in the decision.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 23, 2020, 11:26:18 am
You're welcome.
Talking to your cardiologist it's obviously the best course. ACEI are one of the few drugs that made pretty large differences in outcomes of heart failure and hypertension. So far your chances to have cardiovascular events, particularly if you stop them, are higher than having the corona and being seriously affected by it.
Every case is different.  The article mentioned that if a person is getting ACE inhibitors for marginal reasons, then it might be worse.  In my case, although I had triple bypass, I;ve had no heart attacks and its very strong and in good shape.  It's just that my arteries were clogged.  But that's been taken care of with bypass.  The high blood pressure is rather mild in my case.  My cardiologist likes prescribing drugs in his tool kit.  But, For a change I'll listen to what he says and not second guess him like I do most experts. :)  I've got a call out to him.  Meanwhile, I'm going to wash my hands.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 23, 2020, 11:26:50 am
Interesting op-ed piece from the NYT - 'silent hypoxia'.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/opinion/coronavirus-testing-pneumonia.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage

That's a good article. I recommend that you look at the comments also, particularly from other physicians.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: Alan Klein on April 23, 2020, 11:35:29 am
That's a good article. I recommend that you look at the comments also, particularly from other physicians.
I just ordered a pulse oximeter that measure oxygen in your blood and gives your pulse.  It's amazing how they're all backordered.  I won't get mine until May, and that's with special priced shipping. I called Walgreens, and they have none in stock, even for prescription order.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 23, 2020, 11:41:32 am
I just ordered a pulse oximeter that measure oxygen in your blood and gives your pulse.  It's amazing how they're all backordered.  I won't get mine until May, and that's with special priced shipping. I called Walgreens, and they have none in stock, even for prescription order.

I wonder if he had any stocks in pulseox making companies, this is just the cynical in me.
I though about getting one for myself some time ago but I gave up on that.

If you have a newer Samsung phone you can get your pulse oximetry with it, I don't know about iPhones. Likely not the most calibrated but good enough.

Every case is different.  The article mentioned that if a person is getting ACE inhibitors for marginal reasons, then it might be worse.  In my case, although I had triple bypass, I;ve had no heart attacks and its very strong and in good shape.  It's just that my arteries were clogged.  But that's been taken care of with bypass.  The high blood pressure is rather mild in my case.  My cardiologist likes prescribing drugs in his tool kit.  But, For a change I'll listen to what he says and not second guess him like I do most experts. :)  I've got a call out to him.  Meanwhile, I'm going to wash my hands.

I have no intention on giving you medical advice on the internet (if it sounds like I'm giving medical advice, it's not my intention and you should disregard it). That and the fact that while I know a good amount about cardiology and HTN, this is mostly for inpatient and I'm not a cardiologist.
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: LesPalenik on April 23, 2020, 11:43:13 am
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763803
https://www.ahajournals.org/doi/10.1161/JAHA.120.016509
https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7154066/
https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMsr2005760

Again, once we know more these recs might change but with the current data the safest it's to just continue the course. Particularly if you are at home, because even then the chances are in your favor.

Thank you for posting those links, armand

Those articles describe situations for people with hypertension which is the most frequent condition for using ACEI. How about effect of C19 on people with reduced Ejection Fraction who are taking ACEI?
Title: Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
Post by: armand on April 23,