COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53741091

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-53718184

https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53579731

above what i could quickly find. Bart will have better info.

The lock-downs, or merely more strict measures like mandatory use of mouth/nose masks, in Europe are usually local. So local outbreaks, e.g. from someone coming in from a different country, will trigger local action to reduce the risk of uncontrolled spreading.

The reopening of schools, after the summer holidays, will be monitored closely. The younger population may have a lower (but not zero!) risk of developing severe symptoms, they do become vectors of transmission to the older segment of the population.

[LesPalenik]

The virus affects health and the economy.  People have to eat as well as stay healthy.  Eating helps people stay alive and healthy too.

Especially if they stay at home and cook their meals from scratch.
BTW, Toronto had in July only 18 coronavirus deaths vs 27 deaths from opioid overdoses. Compare that with Miami which has more C19 deaths in a single day.

[Paulo Bizarro]

Thanks for providing the links.   The first one regarding NZ had the following info: "Auckland residents will be asked to stay at home, large gatherings will be banned, non-essential businesses will be shut, and some social-distancing restrictions will be reintroduced in the rest of the country."

The point in my previous post was that countries can't keep shutting down their economies because of a few cases.  In this case it was all members of a single family.  At some point, governments are going to just leave it alone, shut down nothing, tell people to be careful, and get on with life.  Then the breakouts will be worse like in America.  Maybe the US is just getting to that point quicker, like Sweden.  Delaying just screws up the economy more.  Of course, the hope is that we'll find a vaccine or that the virus will dissipate on it's on.  In that case, maybe holding off longer makes sense.  But we really don't know for sure which is the best way.  Current statistics and appearances could be fooling us.

The shutdowns in Europe are regional and local at this stage. Not nationwide. The problem is that "a few cases" left unchecked will quickly ramp up to hundreds and thousands. Look at Spain right now. And it takes time to curbdown the growth curve of infections; it took 2 months in the Lisbon area to go from 300 new cases a day to the current 100 or so.

Identifying and isolating new cases and their contacts quickly is key. In the meantime, economy is slowly recovering, even thought it is clear that people are still afraid of travelling.

[jeremyrh]

The point in my previous post was that countries can't keep shutting down their economies because of a few cases.  In this case it was all members of a single family.  At some point, governments are going to just leave it alone, shut down nothing, tell people to be careful, and get on with life.  Then the breakouts will be worse like in America.  Maybe the US is just getting to that point quicker, like Sweden.  Delaying just screws up the economy more.  Of course, the hope is that we'll find a vaccine or that the virus will dissipate on it's on.  In that case, maybe holding off longer makes sense.  But we really don't know for sure which is the best way.  Current statistics and appearances could be fooling us.

As you said in a previous post, we are getting better at treating the disease, so the longer we can hold it off, the better are the chances of patients.  On top of that, if we get a flood of cases then hospitals will be overwhelmed and treatment will be even worse. For now we don't seem to have a solution except to keep the incidences down to manageable levels (however defined) until a vaccine or other silver bullet is found.

[Alan Klein]

Grocery stores are one thing...what about bars and restaurants and even house parties? I have not heard of an outbreak from a grocery store...but bars, restaurants and house parties...yep.

In New Jersey, indoor dining isn't allowed.  Also in NYC where I was on MOnday, I saw that restaurants are building seating arrangements in gutters next to curbs and on sidewalks.  It's a desperate situation and doesn't seem to be working.  Few people seem to be eating.  When the temperature is 93  degrees and humid, who wants to "fine dine"?  Maybe it's better at night but there doesn't seem to be anyone in the city, especially in the business areas in Midtown.

No I'm not going to bars and house parties.  Do I seem stupid?  What I said was that governments may reach the point that when there are a few new cases, they're not going to shut down their economies again like they just did in New Zealand and Australia. They'll tell people to stop speeding, buckle up their seat belts and stop texting, not to stop driving. 

[Alan Klein]

Especially if they stay at home and cook their meals from scratch.
BTW, Toronto had in July only 18 coronavirus deaths vs 27 deaths from opioid overdoses. Compare that with Miami which has more C19 deaths in a single day.

Is anyone working in Canada?  What accounts for the low numbers?

[Alan Goldhammer]

No I'm not going to bars and house parties.  Do I seem stupid?  What I said was that governments may reach the point that when there are a few new cases, they're not going to shut down their economies again like they just did in New Zealand and Australia. They'll tell people to stop speeding, buckle up their seat belts and stop texting, not to stop driving.

You can schedule a trip to Russia and get vaccinated as they are going to begin mass vaccination using their locally developed vaccine.

[Alan Klein]

Especially if they stay at home and cook their meals from scratch.
BTW, Toronto had in July only 18 coronavirus deaths vs 27 deaths from opioid overdoses. Compare that with Miami which has more C19 deaths in a single day.

NYC has been having daily death in the single digits in August which is pretty good for a city of 8 1/2 million.  Of course, every's moved out so there's only about 200 people left in the city. 

[faberryman]

No I'm not going to bars and house parties.  Do I seem stupid?  What I said was that governments may reach the point that when there are a few new cases, they're not going to shut down their economies again like they just did in New Zealand and Australia. They'll tell people to stop speeding, buckle up their seat belts and stop texting, not to stop driving.

Do you think New Zealand is doing things the wrong way? They've got 4 cases and we've got 50,000. Must be all the testing.

[Alan Klein]

Do you think New Zealand is doing things the wrong way? They've got 4 cases and we've got 50,000. Must be all the testing.

Do you think New Zealand is doing things the wrong way? They've got 4 cases and we've got 50,000. Must be all the testing.

No.  I'm just commenting on the fact that they shut down their economy because of 4 cases and I doubt whether they'll keep doing that.  But I'm glad they're doing what they do.  We have a huge comparison matrix from countries across the globe to see how different methods affect medical and economic results.

[faberryman]

Is anyone working in Canada?  What accounts for the low numbers?

Maybe they are wearing masks, social distancing, and washing their hands. Maybe they are not going to bars and house parties. Maybe they are acting like responsible adults.

[Alan Klein]

Maybe they are wearing masks, social distancing, and washing their hands. Maybe they are not going to bars and house parties. Maybe they are acting like responsible adults.

Your sarcasm is demeaning and mean.  Most Americans don't go to house parties and bars.  Most dead to date are old people many who lived in nursing and old age homes who didn't go gallivanting around.  There's more to the spread than that.  Italy, Spain, etc have high rates as well.

[faberryman]

Your sarcasm is demeaning and mean.  Most Americans don't go to house parties and bars.  Most dead to date are old people many who lived in nursing and old age homes who didn't go gallivanting around.  There's more to the spread than that.  Italy, Spain, etc have high rates as well.

Italy had 412 new cases and 6 new deaths yesterday. Spain had 3,632 new cases and 5 new deaths yesterday. The United States had 54,443 new cases and 1,334 new deaths yesterday.

[hogloff]

In New Jersey, indoor dining isn't allowed.  Also in NYC where I was on MOnday, I saw that restaurants are building seating arrangements in gutters next to curbs and on sidewalks.  It's a desperate situation and doesn't seem to be working.  Few people seem to be eating.  When the temperature is 93  degrees and humid, who wants to "fine dine"?  Maybe it's better at night but there doesn't seem to be anyone in the city, especially in the business areas in Midtown.

No I'm not going to bars and house parties.  Do I seem stupid?  What I said was that governments may reach the point that when there are a few new cases, they're not going to shut down their economies again like they just did in New Zealand and Australia. They'll tell people to stop speeding, buckle up their seat belts and stop texting, not to stop driving.

Well I guess that's the difference between New Zealand and the US...New Zealand has 4 deaths per millions n people, the US 504...and I don't see the US economy doing so well. No idea about the New Zealand economy.

[hogloff]

Is anyone working in Canada?  What accounts for the low numbers?

My part of Canada has opened up quite a while ago. In my city restaurants and bars are open for both indoor and outdoor dining / drinking. Barbers have opened up long ago. Doctors have always been open, though at the height of the outbreak they did more video / telephone consulting. Banks open, hardware stores doing a great business. Fruit stands and landscape outfits open. Truly, I don't think anything is closed.

We are a tourist town and I see plenty of tourists.

My 3 kids never stopped working throughout the entire epidemic.

[Paulo Bizarro]

No I'm not going to bars and house parties.  Do I seem stupid?  What I said was that governments may reach the point that when there are a few new cases, they're not going to shut down their economies again like they just did in New Zealand and Australia. They'll tell people to stop speeding, buckle up their seat belts and stop texting, not to stop driving.

NZ and Australia have shut down on a regional basis. You seem to confuse local versus global shut downs.

[Robert Roaldi]

No.  I'm just commenting on the fact that they shut down their economy because of 4 cases and I doubt whether they'll keep doing that. 

Did they REALLY SHUT DOWN their economy because of 4 cases?

Your outlandish statements do not lend credence to your arguments.

[Alan Klein]

Italy had 412 new cases and 6 new deaths yesterday. Spain had 3,632 new cases and 5 new deaths yesterday. The United States had 54,443 new cases and 1,334 new deaths yesterday.

Spain and Italy have higher death rates than America. They are number 4 and 5 worse in the world.  The US is 8th.   Thereare lies, damn lies, and statistics.

   Confirmed deaths (absolute)   Daily increase (# deaths)¹   Population (in millions)   Deaths per million
Belgium   9,885   6   11.42   865.43
United Kingdom²   46,526   0   66.49   699.75
Peru   21,501   225   31.99   672.13
Spain   28,581   5   46.72   611.7
Italy   35,215   6   60.43   582.73
Sweden   5,770   4   10.18   566.62
Chile   10,178   39   18.73   543.43
USA²   164,234   1,064   327.17   501.99
Brazil   101,752   0   209.47   485.76
France²   30,216   1   66.99   451.07
Mexico   53,929   926   126.19   427.36
Panama   1,680   16   4.18   402.21
Ireland   1,773   1   4.85   365.3
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

[Alan Klein]

My part of Canada has opened up quite a while ago. In my city restaurants and bars are open for both indoor and outdoor dining / drinking. Barbers have opened up long ago. Doctors have always been open, though at the height of the outbreak they did more video / telephone consulting. Banks open, hardware stores doing a great business. Fruit stands and landscape outfits open. Truly, I don't think anything is closed.

We are a tourist town and I see plenty of tourists.

My 3 kids never stopped working throughout the entire epidemic.

So what accounts for the low rates?  Most things are still locked up here although the rates are a lot lower now. 

[faberryman]

Spain and Italy have higher death rates than America. They are number 4 and 5 worse in the world.  The US is 8th.   Thereare lies, damn lies, and statistics.

And so you go with the statistics.

I don't know about you, but I am pretty embarrassed by the US being eighth worst. Think of all those "shithole countries" that are doing better than we are. And where else on the planet are people getting shot in stores over wearing a mask?