Pages: 1 ... 24 25 [26] 27 28 ... 126   Go Down

Author Topic: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS  (Read 86348 times)

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #500 on: April 08, 2020, 10:03:15 am »

Are you actually comparing camera advice with health policy decisions?
Yes. How else would you decide things on issues you never experienced before? We all use our other experience in life to help us.  Unless you know a genie you call to get advice.

Robert Roaldi

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4763
    • Robert's Photos
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #501 on: April 08, 2020, 10:07:11 am »

It's not that experts aren't always right.  It's that their advice varies.  So it becomes difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff. 


I have had the exact opposite experience. The advice has been highly consistent and clear. Keep away from each other and wash your hands. There are no approved drugs and any vaccine is 12-18 months away. This has been repeated by just about anyone who knows anything about the topic and they have been saying this from the start. It's all archived in podcasts and text documents.

Whenever topics come up that are not known yet, they have always said that it wasn't known yet, i.e., masks, but this is our best knowledge on the subject as of the moment, but the basic rules about distance and washing still and always apply.

The only confusing nonsense I've heard was from web noise.
Logged
--
Robert

chez

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2501
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #502 on: April 08, 2020, 10:14:03 am »

It's not that experts aren't always right.  It's that their advice varies.  So it becomes difficult to separate the wheat from the chaff. 

Think about camera recommendations here.  We're all pretty savvy about these things.  Yet someone asks a question, and they'll get half a dozen different recommendations, all may have some validity.  Almost always, there is no completely right answer. which I think is the situation here.  How do you balance economic issues against health issues.  There really is no winning solution.  This is one of those things that there will be great damage regardless of which way you go.  Of course, picking the better way is always easier after the race is over.  Big deal.

But if the majority of experts are saying the same thing...who would you believe? You talk with a lot of what ifs...but reality was the experts were saying the same thing...and much more importantly, the pandemic was well on its way in other parts of the world.

If China was locking down and people were dying and the experts were saying this virus was extremely dangerous and action needs to be taken...what would you do?
Logged

Alan Goldhammer

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4344
    • A Goldhammer Photography
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #503 on: April 08, 2020, 10:18:22 am »

As you know I'm reviewing all the studies that are coming out.  One interesting line of research, and I stress this is all observational, is that countries where there is universal BCG vaccination appear to have fewer cases of SARS-CoV-2. there have been about a dozen papers on this topic. Here is a NY Times story on this topic that is pretty straight forward:  https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/03/health/coronavirus-bcg-vaccine.html & Wikipedia:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/BCG_vaccine  Whether is is just a data curiosity or something meaningful is difficult to assess right now.
Logged

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #504 on: April 08, 2020, 10:18:49 am »

I have had the exact opposite experience. The advice has been highly consistent and clear. Keep away from each other and wash your hands. There are no approved drugs and any vaccine is 12-18 months away. This has been repeated by just about anyone who knows anything about the topic and they have been saying this from the start. It's all archived in podcasts and text documents.

Whenever topics come up that are not known yet, they have always said that it wasn't known yet, i.e., masks, but this is our best knowledge on the subject as of the moment, but the basic rules about distance and washing still and always apply.

The only confusing nonsense I've heard was from web noise.
That's new news. It took a long time to sink in with people.  I was referring to what government should have done early one.  It was not as clear back then. Difficult choices did not seem so easy to pick. The CHinese were lying to us about the disease.  We didn't have all the facts yet.  That's what I was referring too.

chez

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2501
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #505 on: April 08, 2020, 10:23:28 am »

That's new news. It took a long time to sink in with people.  I was referring to what government should have done early one.  It was not as clear back then. Difficult choices did not seem so easy to pick. The CHinese were lying to us about the disease.  We didn't have all the facts yet.  That's what I was referring too.

Alan, when do you feel we had enough facts to make the right decisions?
Logged

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #506 on: April 08, 2020, 10:27:14 am »

But if the majority of experts are saying the same thing...who would you believe? You talk with a lot of what ifs...but reality was the experts were saying the same thing...and much more importantly, the pandemic was well on its way in other parts of the world.

If China was locking down and people were dying and the experts were saying this virus was extremely dangerous and action needs to be taken...what would you do?
Probably not shut down the US economy during the early stages.  At least not at first.  Remember, there are economic experts as well as medical experts and scientific experts.  So you get both advising you.

"Mr. President,' say the scientists.  "If this virus gets out of hand, many people are going to die.  We don't know how many.  But a lot"
"Mr. President," say the economic experts, "if we shut down the economy by keeping people home. we're going to destroy it.  Millions of people will be out of work.  We don't know how many will starve and be bankrupted.  But it will be a lot."

It's like the Gordian knot.  The horns of a dilemma. Whose advice do you follow? You're damned if you do and damned if you don't.

Robert Roaldi

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4763
    • Robert's Photos
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #507 on: April 08, 2020, 10:32:10 am »

That's new news. It took a long time to sink in with people.  I was referring to what government should have done early one.  It was not as clear back then. Difficult choices did not seem so easy to pick. The CHinese were lying to us about the disease.  We didn't have all the facts yet.  That's what I was referring too.

You're hanging your hat on that Chinese lie a bit too much. There was a period of about a month from mid-December to about mid-January when they tried covering things up, and did not succeed ver well. They disciplined a doc or two, then eventually they changed their M.O. and reported to WHO. This is all well-documented. Before that, all they seemed to have was uncoordinated reports of a weird pneumonia in Wuhan. I have heard this narrative from several quarters now.

During that period of attempted cover-up, the info was getting out anyway, and reporters have disclosed that the various intelligence agencies were on top of it all and knew it was happening. So maybe it's true to say that you and I didn't have adequate info by mid-Jan, people in power did. And the info got out fairly rapidly soon after.

What the Chinese government did was stupid but ineffective. Makes sense to be pissed off about it, but it is not THE critical act of the story, just one of them. The virus was going to get out, that's what they do.
Logged
--
Robert

Robert Roaldi

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4763
    • Robert's Photos
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #508 on: April 08, 2020, 10:34:02 am »

Probably not shut down the US economy during the early stages.  At least not at first.  Remember, there are economic experts as well as medical experts and scientific experts.  So you get both advising you.

"Mr. President,' say the scientists.  "If this virus gets out of hand, many people are going to die.  We don't know how many.  But a lot"
"Mr. President," say the economic experts, "if we shut down the economy by keeping people home. we're going to destroy it.  Millions of people will be out of work.  We don't know how many will starve and be bankrupted.  But it will be a lot."

It's like the Gordian knot.  The horns of a dilemma. Whose advice do you follow? You're damned if you do and damned if you don't.

This is just repeat info. We've read it all before. We know what you think.
Logged
--
Robert

chez

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2501
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #509 on: April 08, 2020, 10:36:42 am »

You're hanging your hat on that Chinese lie a bit too much. There was a period of about a month from mid-December to about mid-January when they tried covering things up, and did not succeed ver well. They disciplined a doc or two, then eventually they changed their M.O. and reported to WHO. This is all well-documented. Before that, all they seemed to have was uncoordinated reports of a weird pneumonia in Wuhan. I have heard this narrative from several quarters now.

During that period of attempted cover-up, the info was getting out anyway, and reporters have disclosed that the various intelligence agencies were on top of it all and knew it was happening. So maybe it's true to say that you and I didn't have adequate info by mid-Jan, people in power did. And the info got out fairly rapidly soon after.

What the Chinese government did was stupid but ineffective. Makes sense to be pissed off about it, but it is not THE critical act of the story, just one of them. The virus was going to get out, that's what they do.

The Chinese got the WHO involved on Dec 31.
Logged

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #510 on: April 08, 2020, 10:37:32 am »

You're hanging your hat on that Chinese lie a bit too much. There was a period of about a month from mid-December to about mid-January when they tried covering things up, and did not succeed ver well. They disciplined a doc or two, then eventually they changed their M.O. and reported to WHO. This is all well-documented. Before that, all they seemed to have was uncoordinated reports of a weird pneumonia in Wuhan. I have heard this narrative from several quarters now.

During that period of attempted cover-up, the info was getting out anyway, and reporters have disclosed that the various intelligence agencies were on top of it all and knew it was happening. So maybe it's true to say that you and I didn't have adequate info by mid-Jan, people in power did. And the info got out fairly rapidly soon after.

What the Chinese government did was stupid but ineffective. Makes sense to be pissed off about it, but it is not THE critical act of the story, just one of them. The virus was going to get out, that's what they do.
  First off Trump did stop Chinese from coming here on Jan 31 followed by stopping travelers from Europe and then GB.  It's true he didn't shut down the economy until later.  Read my last post for why.

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #511 on: April 08, 2020, 10:38:11 am »

This is just repeat info. We've read it all before. We know what you think.
We're up to page 26.  We're all repeating ourselves.  :)

Robert Roaldi

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4763
    • Robert's Photos
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #512 on: April 08, 2020, 10:39:19 am »

The Chinese got the WHO involved on Dec 31.

Sorry, too many dates in my head.
Logged
--
Robert

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #513 on: April 08, 2020, 10:39:33 am »

The Chinese got the WHO involved on Dec 31.
The Chinese lied and WHO covered for them.  A disgrace. A pox on both their houses.

Robert Roaldi

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4763
    • Robert's Photos
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #514 on: April 08, 2020, 10:41:09 am »

  First off Trump did stop Chinese from coming here on Jan 31 followed by stopping travelers from Europe and then GB.  It's true he didn't shut down the economy until later.  Read my last post for why.

Many people have stated that stopping flights is not a minor factor in the contagion spread. It's an open world.
Logged
--
Robert

Robert Roaldi

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4763
    • Robert's Photos
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #515 on: April 08, 2020, 10:41:41 am »

We're up to page 26.  We're all repeating ourselves.  :)

So let's stop the repeats. Easy to do.
Logged
--
Robert

chez

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2501
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #516 on: April 08, 2020, 10:43:04 am »

The Chinese lied and WHO covered for them.  A disgrace. A pox on both their houses.

From Jan 1 forward, there was increasing more information from the WHO with facts on the virus. Some just refused to listen to these facts.
Logged

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #517 on: April 08, 2020, 10:44:24 am »

So let's stop the repeats. Easy to do.
Fine. I've asked about what we should do going forward?  You guys keep wanting to go back to attack Trump. 

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #518 on: April 08, 2020, 10:45:37 am »

From Jan 1 forward, there was increasing more information from the WHO with facts on the virus. Some just refused to listen to these facts.
I'm taking Robert's advice and not going back to discuss the same thing over and over again.  We all made our points about what should have been done two months ago.  Time to move on.

chez

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2501
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #519 on: April 08, 2020, 10:57:50 am »

I'm taking Robert's advice and not going back to discuss the same thing over and over again.  We all made our points about what should have been done two months ago.  Time to move on.

Just hoping going forward history does not repeat. Much rather err on staying locked down longer than opening up too soon and causing another mess.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 24 25 [26] 27 28 ... 126   Go Up