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Author Topic: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS  (Read 86351 times)

LesPalenik

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #160 on: March 28, 2020, 09:23:04 am »

just read some reports from Slovakia how they handled Covid-19 situation.
Slovakia is a rather small country with 5.5 million people, 300 infections, but no deaths so far.
They instituted early a number of measures to prevent and monitor the infections, some low-tech and some using the latest technology for tracking the affected people.

Quote
The newly-appointed crisis staff and Igor Matovič's cabinet came up with a set of measures to add to the already existing ones that have been valid in Slovakia since March 13.
"The epidemiologic situation is still better than in some western-European states," said the head of the hygienic authority, Jan Mikas.
The government is about to purchase 200,000 PCR tests.

Wearing a protective face mask will be obligatory outside one's home, including in the streets. When queueing, people are required to stand at least 2 metres from each other, both indoor and outdoor. As of March 30, measuring temperature will be obligatory at the entrance to shops, hospitals, factories,... (using a digital contactless thermometer measuring temperature on the forehead)

All shops will be closed on Sundays, for disinfection and to allow the staff to rest. The ban on organizing mass events that expired on March 24 has been prolonged until further notice.

Using data from mobile phones:
-The government will pass a law on a short-tracked procedure to allow state authorities to use localisation data from mobile phone operators. GDPR permits the use of this data during crisis times, but "we need a law for the telecom operators to be sure we are able to use this data". The government will talk to the telecom operators about the possibility of sending targeted messages to people, e.g. pensioners older than 65 years, to remind them about the appeals and measures that apply to them.

https://spectator.sme.sk/c/22366501/masks-will-be-obligatory-new-measures-mainly-aimed-at-the-elderly.html?ref=njctse
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #161 on: March 28, 2020, 09:52:06 am »

On its own, such a test has limited value. At best it can tell if someone is, or has been, infected with Covid-19. Additional tests are required to increase its usefulness, and it's the lack of molecular tests that creates a problem. Also, without being used in a good methodical data-gathering effort, there is limited usefulness for the larger population (e.g. in determining when it becomes acceptable to risk going back to work).

First test results do suggest that people may be immune to reinfection, but it's still too earlier to be very sure. Currently there are also tests being done to establish the differences in (re-)contamination risk between people with only mild or more servere sympthoms. That includes specific effects from children compared to adults.
The blood tests rely on the presence of antibodies which do not present immediately upon infection.  The gene tests from nasal and throat swabs are still the gold standard there.  There has been a lot of progress automating those tests and several companies that manufacture gene auto-analyzers have tests now.  Abbott Labs in the US hopes to be sending out 1 million tests kits a week that run on their machines and there are others who are also ramping up production.  These machines are mainly in hospital settings where point of care diagnoses is most important.

I've seen a couple of pin prick blood tests now but don't know what the ramp up for production is.  These kinds of tests can be administered in a doctor's office and conceivably at home much the same way diabetics test their blood sugar levels with a pin prick (though that has largely been superseded by some new technologies).  Blood tests can be more widely deployed than the gene tests and will be useful in getting good background numbers on the total number infected.
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #162 on: March 28, 2020, 10:31:25 am »

I've seen a couple of pin prick blood tests now but don't know what the ramp up for production is.  These kinds of tests can be administered in a doctor's office and conceivably at home much the same way diabetics test their blood sugar levels with a pin prick (though that has largely been superseded by some new technologies).  Blood tests can be more widely deployed than the gene tests and will be useful in getting good background numbers on the total number infected.

Understood. There is an obvious statistical value, but it might also be of some relief to many people to find out that they did have it and seemed to be able to fight it off. I do understand the risk of inducing false hope until we know more.
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armand

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #163 on: March 28, 2020, 01:46:54 pm »

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-27/abbott-launches-5-minute-covid-19-test-for-use-almost-anywhere?fbclid=IwAR0-IvkWdl13BT6dVaGsERWXPRIMmVjYkGCFcRwlt6-Sj7FfwC9EGR_ww_w

The April 1st start date gives me a little pause.
Plus in our system (and I don't think it's the only one) they don't want outpatient offices to test but to send for testing to one of the main hospital locations.

degrub

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #164 on: March 28, 2020, 05:13:04 pm »

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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #165 on: March 28, 2020, 05:20:21 pm »

from the FDA
https://www.fda.gov/media/136522/download

It would be helpful to summarize the link and your reason for posting it. 

Alan Goldhammer

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #166 on: March 28, 2020, 05:23:45 pm »

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-03-27/abbott-launches-5-minute-covid-19-test-for-use-almost-anywhere?fbclid=IwAR0-IvkWdl13BT6dVaGsERWXPRIMmVjYkGCFcRwlt6-Sj7FfwC9EGR_ww_w

The April 1st start date gives me a little pause.
Plus in our system (and I don't think it's the only one) they don't want outpatient offices to test but to send for testing to one of the main hospital locations.
There are 18K machines throughout the US.  Abbott plans to get 40K tests out each day.  Do the math and you get 2.5 tests per machine and you need to get those to the site where the machines are.  there will be a huge logistics issue here.

EDIT:  The issue of PPE (personal protection equipment will be an issue for MD and urgent care offices).
« Last Edit: March 28, 2020, 05:30:46 pm by Alan Goldhammer »
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #167 on: March 28, 2020, 05:31:12 pm »

There are 18K machines throughout the US.  Abbott plans to get 40K tests out each day.  Do the math and you get 2.5 tests per machine and you need to get those to the site where the machines are.  there will be a huge logistics issue here.
Why would you need 18K machines to test?  Send the tests to the most affected areas?  Then set up regional testing machines at let's say hospitals.  For example, NYC has 11 major hospitals under NYC government control.  So that could be testing centers.  44 machines or four per hospital.  Ditto for New Orleans, Chicago, and other hot spots.  Then leave let's say 40% of the tests for less affected places but for machine at a major hospital.  You got to think out of the box.

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #168 on: March 28, 2020, 05:34:52 pm »

...

EDIT:  The issue of PPE (personal protection equipment will be an issue for MD and urgent care offices).

Let's say you're the president. What do you suggest?

Alan Goldhammer

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #169 on: March 28, 2020, 05:38:45 pm »

Why would you need 18K machines to test?  Send the tests to the most affected areas?  Then set up regional testing machines at let's say hospitals.  For example, NYC has 11 major hospitals under NYC government control.  So that could be testing centers.  44 machines or four per hospital.  Ditto for New Orleans, Chicago, and other hot spots.  Then leave let's say 40% of the tests for less affected places but for machine at a major hospital.  You got to think out of the box.
Hospitals don't use this machine they use the big Abbott analyzer for which the company is cranking out many more tests a day.  I think they are shipping out over a million a week.  This machine is used primarily in MD and urgent care offices.
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #170 on: March 28, 2020, 05:40:43 pm »

Let's say you're the president. What do you suggest?
Make more PPE, everyone needs the stuff.  Also remember if someone who is positive comes to an MD or urgent care office and sneezes or coughs you need to the have the tools to decontaminate things.  Maybe they will dedicate a special room for taking the swab samples.  this is not as easy a problem to solve.
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #171 on: March 28, 2020, 05:48:57 pm »

Hospitals don't use this machine they use the big Abbott analyzer for which the company is cranking out many more tests a day.  I think they are shipping out over a million a week.  This machine is used primarily in MD and urgent care offices.
So what do you suggest?

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #172 on: March 28, 2020, 05:49:45 pm »

Make more PPE, everyone needs the stuff.  Also remember if someone who is positive comes to an MD or urgent care office and sneezes or coughs you need to the have the tools to decontaminate things.  Maybe they will dedicate a special room for taking the swab samples.  this is not as easy a problem to solve.
So what do you suggest?

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #173 on: March 28, 2020, 05:50:47 pm »

Remember, you're president.  No one wants to hear this is not an easy problem to solve.  Solve it.

Alan Goldhammer

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #174 on: March 28, 2020, 05:51:24 pm »

So what do you suggest?
Asked an answered at #170 above; more PPE for health care workers so they can treat and test without getting infected.
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #175 on: March 28, 2020, 05:54:55 pm »

Asked an answered at #170 above; more PPE for health care workers so they can treat and test without getting infected.
That's what the president is doing.  He's got automobile manufacturers to help out.  All of them are helping willingly except GM which wants to gouge us with high prices.  So he dropped the mandatory manufacturing law in their laps and told them to produce or face the consequences.  What more would you do?  Remember you're in charge.

armand

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #176 on: March 28, 2020, 06:01:50 pm »

There are 18K machines throughout the US.  Abbott plans to get 40K tests out each day.  Do the math and you get 2.5 tests per machine and you need to get those to the site where the machines are.  there will be a huge logistics issue here.

EDIT:  The issue of PPE (personal protection equipment will be an issue for MD and urgent care offices).

Initially I didn't understand what you were saying but I think I get it now.

Most of the testing will be done in bigger centers because of the PPE requirements. I see a trend towards sending the tests to more centralized locations and have a fast turnover than to try to test it on-site.
I guess this option will be more valid for smaller remote locations where they have no other choice.

Robert Roaldi

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #177 on: March 28, 2020, 06:32:54 pm »

That's what the president is doing.  He's got automobile manufacturers to help out.  All of them are helping willingly except GM which wants to gouge us with high prices.  So he dropped the mandatory manufacturing law in their laps and told them to produce or face the consequences.  What more would you do?  Remember you're in charge.

This thread was set up to distribute facts and useful information. Recently you manage to turn every topic into a "defend Trump at all costs" post even when he wasn't being attacked. Knock it off, it serves no purpose and risks derailing this thread. Nothing Alan G wrote above was political.
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #178 on: March 28, 2020, 06:53:55 pm »

Initially I didn't understand what you were saying but I think I get it now.

Most of the testing will be done in bigger centers because of the PPE requirements. I see a trend towards sending the tests to more centralized locations and have a fast turnover than to try to test it on-site.
I guess this option will be more valid for smaller remote locations where they have no other choice.
Yes, these are the small machines that only run some dedicated tests such as for strep throat and some other easy things.  The big guys such as LabCorp and Quest can do large volume testing but it has to be sent to regional centers and the turn around time is 2-3 days.
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #179 on: March 28, 2020, 07:18:34 pm »

This thread was set up to distribute facts and useful information. Recently you manage to turn every topic into a "defend Trump at all costs" post even when he wasn't being attacked. Knock it off, it serves no purpose and risks derailing this thread. Nothing Alan G wrote above was political.

Seconded.
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