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Author Topic: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS  (Read 49568 times)

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #120 on: March 26, 2020, 03:46:19 pm »

Alan, I was being positive, actually quite optimistic.
Instead of the current doubling every 3 or every 5 days, I assumed a more conservative estimate of 8-10 days.
You're assuming this will go on to the fall.  I don't think that's going to happen.  If it does, than read my last post.

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #121 on: March 26, 2020, 03:52:21 pm »

I've been reading a lot of clinical papers for the email newsletter I'm sending out each day to fellow pharma industry retirees.  It seems to be quite variable.  Some patients saw the virus disappear within a day or two other a little longer.  The CDC guidance is good but make sure you carry some disposable Kleenex with you and if you have to cough or sneeze use the tissue under the assumption you don't want to transmit anything (you probably wouldn't but always good to be safe) and of course keep up the hand washing and sanitizing routine.  Right now I have not seen any papers about reinfection of those who no longer had virus in their system.
You could cough into your hand like Biden did.  2:50 on he video   Check out Tappers reaction.
https://twitter.com/i/status/1242535855362899976

armand

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #122 on: March 26, 2020, 04:06:01 pm »

There were comments on the presence of SARS-CoV-2 on environmental surfaces based on the New England Journal of Medicine article.  I tried to allay folks concerns but this article in Jeff Bezos's Washington Post does it better:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/26/dont-panic-about-shopping-getting-delivery-or-accepting-packages/    In short, don't panic, go about your business and wash your hands.

Bezos wants money for that article.

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #123 on: March 26, 2020, 04:26:58 pm »

Are things getting testy at home?

LesPalenik

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #124 on: March 26, 2020, 07:47:44 pm »

You're assuming this will go on to the fall.  I don't think that's going to happen.  If it does, than read my last post.

Firstly, this thing won't stop suddenly, there will be a gradual slowdown, and maybe even a second wave before the situation returns to normal.
Secondly, if the virus gets worse and many workers stay at home either because they will be sick or laid off, there is not much point in forcing them to go back to work.

BTW, on March 20, we had 271,598 total infections and 11,299 deaths. That day, in one of my posts, I made a prediction of 600,000 total infections and 25,000 deaths for end of March. Looking at today's numbers, they doubled in 7 days to 529,605 infections and 24,000 deaths, so we'll reach the predicted numbers tomorrow, 4 days early. Now, it looks like by end of March we might be at 750,000 infections and 40,000 dead.

Paulo Bizarro

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #125 on: March 27, 2020, 06:21:19 am »

A question: say you were in self-isolation for 14 days. It that period, the symptoms were gradually disappearing, and on day 15-16, you can say you are symptom-free. How long after that you could still be contagious? An extra week? Two? What does science say?

You could still shed virus for 2 to 3 weeks, but perhaps at that stage the virus is less infectious.  A lot of uncertaity still remains.

Paulo Bizarro

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #126 on: March 27, 2020, 06:31:06 am »

Well this thing goes on another year, than the economies will be destroyed and we'll all be starving to death.  Pick your poison.

Scientists are already preparing for a second wave, in the Autumn, where a vaccine will not be available yet. Of course, the current lockdown will reduce the number of people getting infected now, but will increase the number of people getting infected in the future, most likely. There is no win-win situation.

The second wave of the 1918 flu, which hit Portugal in the Autumn of 1919, killed a lot more people. Also worldwide I think.

Manoli

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #127 on: March 27, 2020, 06:57:18 am »

You could still shed virus for 2 to 3 weeks, but perhaps at that stage the virus is less infectious.  A lot of uncertaity still remains.

I'd suggest that before throwing around loose comments and advice as facts, one should provide a link to the source - preferably an authoratative one.  Prefacing replies with 'perhaps' only helps to spread FUD.

Current guidelines are, AFAIK, 7 days contagion / 14 days to exhibit signs of infection (incubation period).

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/disposition-in-home-patients.html

Quote
Persons with COVID-19 who have symptoms and were directed to care for themselves at home may discontinue home isolation under the  following conditions:

1/ At least 3 days (72 hours) have passed since recovery defined as resolution of fever without the use of fever-reducing medications and improvement in respiratory symptoms (e.g., cough, shortness of breath); and,
2/ At least 7 days have passed since symptoms first appeared.
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Manoli

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #128 on: March 27, 2020, 07:00:11 am »

It mau be the Daily Mail but the video is from George Washington University.
360degree VR and 3D images of COVID-19 infected lungs.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/health/article-8155797/Virtual-reality-video-reveals-coronavirus-damages-lungs.html

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Manoli

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #129 on: March 27, 2020, 09:00:54 am »

Johns Hopkins University - summary to avoid contagion.

Quote
*1* The virus is not a living organism, but a protein molecule (DNA) covered by a protective layer of lipid (fat), which, when absorbed by the cells of the ocular, nasal or buccal mucosa, changes their genetic code. (mutation) and convert them into aggressor and multiplier cells.
*2* Since the virus is not a living organism but a protein molecule, it is not killed, but decays on its own. The disintegration time depends on the temperature, humidity and type of material where it lies.
*3* The virus is very fragile; the only thing that protects it is a thin outer layer of fat. That is why any soap or detergent is the best remedy, because the foam CUTS the FAT (that is why you have to rub so much: for 20 seconds or more, to make a lot of foam). By dissolving the fat layer, the protein molecule disperses and breaks down on its own.
*4* HEAT melts fat; this is why it is so good to use water above 25 degrees Celsius for washing hands, clothes and everything. In addition, hot water makes more foam and that makes it even more useful.
*5* Alcohol or any mixture with alcohol over 65% DISSOLVES ANY FAT, especially the external lipid layer of the virus.
*6* Any mix with 1 part bleach and 5 parts water directly dissolves the protein, breaks it down from the inside.
*7* Oxygenated water helps long after soap, alcohol and chlorine, because peroxide dissolves the virus protein, but you have to use it pure and it hurts your skin.
*8* NO BACTERIACIDE SERVES. The virus is not a living organism like bacteria; they cannot kill what is not alive with anthobiotics, but quickly disintegrate its structure with everything said.
*9* NEVER shake used or unused clothing, sheets or cloth. While it is glued to a porous surface, it is very inert and disintegrates only between 3 hours (fabric and porous), 4 hours (copper, because it is naturally antiseptic; and wood, be
cause it removes all the moisture and does not let it peel off and disintegrates). ), 24 hours (cardboard), 42 hours (metal) and 72 hours (plastic). But if you shake it or use a feather duster, the virus molecules float in the air for up to 3 hours, and can lodge in your nose.
*10* The virus molecules remain very stable in external cold, or artificial as air conditioners in houses and cars. They also need moisture to stay stable, and especially darkness. Therefore, dehumidified, dry, warm and bright environments will degrade it faster.
*11* UV LIGHT on any object that may contain it breaks down the virus protein. For example, to disinfect and reuse a mask is perfect. Be careful, it also breaks down collagen (which is protein) in the skin, eventually causing wrinkles and skin cancer.
*12* The virus CANNOT go through healthy skin.
*13* Vinegar is NOT useful because it does not break down the protective layer of fat.
*14* NO SPIRITS, NOR VODKA, serve. The strongest vodka is 40% alcohol, and you need 65%.
*15* LISTERINE IF IT SERVES! It is 65% alcohol.
*16* The more confined the space, the more concentration of the virus there can be. The more open or naturally ventilated, the less.
*17* This is super said, but you have to wash your hands before and after touching mucosa, food, locks, knobs, switches, remote control, cell phone, watches, computers, desks, TV, etc. And when using the bathroom.
*18* You have to HUMIDIFY HANDS DRY from so much washing them, because the molecules can hide in the micro cracks. The thicker the moisturizer, the better.
*19* Also keep your NAILS SHORT so that the virus does not hide there.

Johns Hopkins Archive
https://hub.jhu.edu/tags/coronavirus/articles/
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #130 on: March 27, 2020, 10:02:29 am »

Scientists are already preparing for a second wave, in the Autumn, where a vaccine will not be available yet. Of course, the current lockdown will reduce the number of people getting infected now, but will increase the number of people getting infected in the future, most likely. There is no win-win situation.

The second wave of the 1918 flu, which hit Portugal in the Autumn of 1919, killed a lot more people. Also worldwide I think.

What a cheery comment.  :)

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #131 on: March 27, 2020, 10:02:50 am »

Johns Hopkins University - summary to avoid contagion.

Johns Hopkins Archive
https://hub.jhu.edu/tags/coronavirus/articles/

Excellent summary!
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #132 on: March 27, 2020, 10:16:29 am »

An experimental vaccine is starting trials in the UK shortly.  It's based on the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and uses a proven scalable technology.  500 people will be enrolled.
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #133 on: March 27, 2020, 10:26:03 am »

An experimental vaccine is starting trials in the UK shortly.  It's based on the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein and uses a proven scalable technology.  500 people will be enrolled.
Do they think this virus will come back next year, come back in a different strain like the Asian flu does every year, or is this a one-off?

Paulo Bizarro

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #134 on: March 27, 2020, 10:28:53 am »

I'd suggest that before throwing around loose comments and advice as facts, one should provide a link to the source - preferably an authoratative one.  Prefacing replies with 'perhaps' only helps to spread FUD.

Current guidelines are, AFAIK, 7 days contagion / 14 days to exhibit signs of infection (incubation period).

https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/faq.html
https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/hcp/disposition-in-home-patients.html

I apologize for not remembering the source, but I am sure I read it as a quote froma scientific paper that was mentioned during the daily press conference we have in Portgual from our health authorities.

What you mention above is nothing new and does not contradict my statement. Also, no need to insult.

What has been found out is that after recovering from the disease and leaving the hospital, patients were found to still being able to infect others because they still had the virus in their system. Doctors mention "shedding" the virus. This could be the reason why some patients still test positive after recovering and being declared cured. They still carry the virus in their system, and could be doing so for 2 - 3 weeks.

Found it after all:

"After a person recovers from the virus, how long are they still contagious?
That's a very important question. We're not sure; one individual in China was shown to have persistent virus shedding for over a month. But typically, we're looking at a three-week period from onset of symptoms."

https://www.caltech.edu/about/news/tip-iceberg-virologist-david-ho-bs-74-speaks-about-covid-19?fbclid=IwAR0MA1o_JLnGCK6c0Z1SJtikFUF1o0W-17N-ZNFOkXlqIz52K5fItzVbf-I

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #135 on: March 27, 2020, 10:30:08 am »

UKs Boris Johnson tested positive.   It seems like a lot of famous people have the virus.  Maybe mild cases.  Could that mean it's really more distributed and we just don't know because only the rich and famous are getting tested without symptoms?

Paulo Bizarro

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #136 on: March 27, 2020, 10:41:39 am »

UKs Boris Johnson tested positive.   It seems like a lot of famous people have the virus.  Maybe mild cases.  Could that mean it's really more distributed and we just don't know because only the rich and famous are getting tested without symptoms?

In Portugal, today we have more ~700 cases. This means that the growth rate is keeping at 20% per day, down from 40% before the quarantine. This is not bad news...

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #137 on: March 27, 2020, 10:56:04 am »

In Portugal, today we have more ~700 cases. This means that the growth rate is keeping at 20% per day, down from 40% before the quarantine. This is not bad news...
That is good news.  Let's pray that follows around the world.

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #138 on: March 27, 2020, 11:04:26 am »

Do they think this virus will come back next year, come back in a different strain like the Asian flu does every year, or is this a one-off?

It's staying and it keeps changing a little with each transfer. So we need to build immunity (antibodies) and/or introduce them with a vaccine to help the immune system prepare. Once the leap from animal to human carriers is made, traveling humans are a successful vehicle for spreading.
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #139 on: March 27, 2020, 11:07:27 am »

In Portugal, today we have more ~700 cases. This means that the growth rate is keeping at 20% per day, down from 40% before the quarantine. This is not bad news...

Sounds like the R0 is also approaching 1.0 like it seems to be in the Netherlands. There might still be a flare-up due to last weekend where a lot of irresponsible folks were organizing parties in defiance of the instructions, which caused the government to tighten up the restrictions and impose 400 fines for private offenders, and 4000 for companies. Now to get the R0 below 1.0 will be a tricky balancing act.
« Last Edit: March 27, 2020, 11:12:57 am by Bart_van_der_Wolf »
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