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Author Topic: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS  (Read 48641 times)

armand

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #100 on: March 26, 2020, 11:41:39 am »

According to our health authorities, fruit and vegetables are ok. Stiil, I wash them as I normally used to do anyway, with water and soap, before storing them. I basically wash everything, but I am used to do it anyway.

I also leave shopping bags in a "dirty area" for 1 day.

Thanks.  I just washed bananas and oranges with soap and water and rinsed them off.  All the glass , plastic, cardboard and other grocery items were cleaned off with Lysol Disinfectant sprayed into a couple of paper towels and wiped off with it.   I have to start wearing Nitrile rubber gloves more often.   I'm getting homemaker hands.  :)

See the YouTube link I posted on the previous
How to clean your food: https://youtu.be/sjDuwc9KBps
page, the guy is pretty thorough.

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #101 on: March 26, 2020, 11:42:30 am »

Not quite a normal flu...

https://www.facebook.com/mc.somsen.5/videos/2479878538929240/

My point is that Covid will die out like flu does every year.  Regard deaths, that chart of yours only shows 72 days.  Flu killed 500,000 worldwide last year, 50,000 in America alone with 34,000,000 infected.  Covid-19, as bad as it is, doesn;t seem to be on the same destructive path. 

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #102 on: March 26, 2020, 11:46:34 am »

See the YouTube link I posted on the previous page, the guy is pretty thorough.
Yes, he is.  Thanks for that video, Armand.  I watched the whole thing and followed his suggestions.

LesPalenik

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #103 on: March 26, 2020, 11:50:15 am »

My point is that Covid will die out like flu does every year.  Regard deaths, that chart of yours only shows 72 days.  Flu killed 500,000 worldwide last year, 50,000 in America alone with 34,000,000 infected.  Covid-19, as bad as it is, doesn;t seem to be on the same destructive path.

Actually, if the current trend continues, Covid-10 is on a much more destructive path. In the other related thread, I posted some projections with millions of deaths before the summer.

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #104 on: March 26, 2020, 01:05:11 pm »

A question: say you were in self-isolation for 14 days. It that period, the symptoms were gradually disappearing, and on day 15-16, you can say you are symptom-free. How long after that you could still be contagious? An extra week? Two? What does science say?

Jeremy Roussak

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #105 on: March 26, 2020, 01:21:00 pm »

My point is that Covid will die out like flu does every year.

You've added predictive virology to your fields of expertise, have you? On what do you base "my point"?

Jeremy
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Chris Kern

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #106 on: March 26, 2020, 01:36:42 pm »

A question: say you were in self-isolation for 14 days. It that period, the symptoms were gradually disappearing, and on day 15-16, you can say you are symptom-free. How long after that you could still be contagious?

I've attached a screen capture of the current guidance from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #107 on: March 26, 2020, 01:37:22 pm »

You've added predictive virology to your fields of expertise, have you? On what do you base "my point"?

Jeremy
The charts for one.  They appear to be flattening out, turning a corner.  Plus some experts have said deaths seem to be declining in areas that were hit earlier.  So based on the curves and time frames in the charts,  NYC should level off in a couple of weeks then start going down.  So based on those things, my estimate is the whole thing will fade out in 4 or 5 weeks or so.

LesPalenik

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #108 on: March 26, 2020, 01:51:06 pm »

The charts for one.  They appear to be flattening out, turning a corner.  Plus some experts have said deaths seem to be declining in areas that were hit earlier.  So based on the curves and time frames in the charts,  NYC should level off in a couple of weeks then start going down.  So based on those things, my estimate is the whole thing will fade out in 4 or 5 weeks or so.

Bill Gates believes that America needs six to 10 weeks of “extreme shutdown” to get a handle on the coronavirus outbreak (or COVID-19), indirectly criticizing comments from President Trump.

Quote
“It’s very irresponsible for somebody to suggest we can have the best of both worlds,” Gates emphasized in an interview with TED on Tuesday. “What we need is the extreme shutdown, so that in six to 10 weeks, if things go well, then you can start opening back up.”

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bill-gates-on-coronavirus-161803530.html

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #109 on: March 26, 2020, 01:59:53 pm »

Bill Gates believes that America needs six to 10 weeks of “extreme shutdown” to get a handle on the coronavirus outbreak (or COVID-19), indirectly criticizing comments from President Trump.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/bill-gates-on-coronavirus-161803530.html
What does he care?  He's worth $80 billion dollars and can afford to take a couple of weeks off. In any case, his guess is as good as mine. 

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #110 on: March 26, 2020, 02:02:17 pm »

In any case, Gates' guess is not much different than mine.  I said 4-5 weeks, he said 6-10 weeks.  Maybe Les you're right and it will be 2021.

Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #111 on: March 26, 2020, 02:11:51 pm »

I've attached a screen capture of the current guidance from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Thanks, Chris, much appreciated. Based on that, it seems I can get out. But I won't. Not yet.

LesPalenik

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #112 on: March 26, 2020, 02:13:15 pm »

In any case, Gates' guess is not much different than mine.  I said 4-5 weeks, he said 6-10 weeks.  Maybe Les you're right and it will be 2021.

Hopefully, the worst will be over by fall this year.
As to the estimated difference between 5 and 10 weeks, if the actual difference turns out as just one one month and the doubling period remains at 8 days, that extra time could inflict 10 times more casualties.

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #113 on: March 26, 2020, 02:19:31 pm »

Hopefully, the worst will be over by fall this year.
As to the estimated difference between 5 and 10 weeks, if the actual difference turns out as just one one month and the doubling period remains at 8 days, that extra time could inflict 10 times more casualties.
You're assuming the rate keeps doubling at the same rate.  In NY, Gov Cuomo announced the two day doubling had change to something like 2-3 days than changed again to every 4-5 days.  It could reach a point where there are more deaths added to the total but the rate stays the same day to day.  Let's think positive.  It's just as easy to do that as to think negative.  Maybe we've been watching too many walking dead and end of world movies recently.   

Manoli

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #114 on: March 26, 2020, 02:34:56 pm »

Let's think positive.  It's just as easy to do that as to think negative. 

Easy, yes.
But the consequences of being wrong in either case vastly different.
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LesPalenik

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #115 on: March 26, 2020, 02:39:13 pm »

You're assuming the rate keeps doubling at the same rate.  In NY, Gov Cuomo announced the two day doubling had change to something like 2-3 days than changed again to every 4-5 days.  It could reach a point where there are more deaths added to the total but the rate stays the same day to day.  Let's think positive.  It's just as easy to do that as to think negative.  Maybe we've been watching too many walking dead and end of world movies recently.

Alan, I was being positive, actually quite optimistic.
Instead of the current doubling every 3 or every 5 days, I assumed a more conservative estimate of 8-10 days.

Alan Goldhammer

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #116 on: March 26, 2020, 02:41:14 pm »

Thanks, Chris, much appreciated. Based on that, it seems I can get out. But I won't. Not yet.
I've been reading a lot of clinical papers for the email newsletter I'm sending out each day to fellow pharma industry retirees.  It seems to be quite variable.  Some patients saw the virus disappear within a day or two other a little longer.  The CDC guidance is good but make sure you carry some disposable Kleenex with you and if you have to cough or sneeze use the tissue under the assumption you don't want to transmit anything (you probably wouldn't but always good to be safe) and of course keep up the hand washing and sanitizing routine.  Right now I have not seen any papers about reinfection of those who no longer had virus in their system.
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #117 on: March 26, 2020, 02:43:57 pm »

There were comments on the presence of SARS-CoV-2 on environmental surfaces based on the New England Journal of Medicine article.  I tried to allay folks concerns but this article in Jeff Bezos's Washington Post does it better:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/03/26/dont-panic-about-shopping-getting-delivery-or-accepting-packages/    In short, don't panic, go about your business and wash your hands.
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #118 on: March 26, 2020, 02:48:03 pm »

Thanks, Alan G.

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #119 on: March 26, 2020, 03:44:47 pm »

Easy, yes.
But the consequences of being wrong in either case vastly different.

Well this thing goes on another year, than the economies will be destroyed and we'll all be starving to death.  Pick your poison.
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