COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS

[jeremyrh]

Spain and Italy have higher death rates than America. They are number 4 and 5 worse in the world.  The US is 8th.   

But they are both done with the first wave (roughly speaking) whereas the US is still on the up-ramp

Thereare lies, damn lies, and statistics.

   

[hogloff]

Spain and Italy have higher death rates than America. They are number 4 and 5 worse in the world.  The US is 8th.   Thereare lies, damn lies, and statistics.

   Confirmed deaths (absolute)   Daily increase (# deaths)¹   Population (in millions)   Deaths per million
Belgium   9,885   6   11.42   865.43
United Kingdom²   46,526   0   66.49   699.75
Peru   21,501   225   31.99   672.13
Spain   28,581   5   46.72   611.7
Italy   35,215   6   60.43   582.73
Sweden   5,770   4   10.18   566.62
Chile   10,178   39   18.73   543.43
USA²   164,234   1,064   327.17   501.99
Brazil   101,752   0   209.47   485.76
France²   30,216   1   66.99   451.07
Mexico   53,929   926   126.19   427.36
Panama   1,680   16   4.18   402.21
Ireland   1,773   1   4.85   365.3
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1104709/coronavirus-deaths-worldwide-per-million-inhabitants/

But what have they done lately. Sure Spain and Italy are bad because they got hit hard early...but have recovered quite nicely. The US got hit later...should have learned something from other countries...but is still out of control. Yes...those stats lie...today's stats is much more revealing.

[hogloff]

So what accounts for the low rates?  Most things are still locked up here although the rates are a lot lower now.

We've had a consistent message from the Prime Minister right down to our mayor. We've had our head Dr. doing daily TV briefings. Nothing about the pandemic had been politicized.

So people have fallen into line with what has been preached to them every day by our medical and political people. I see a lot of social distancing, quite a few masks and washing stations at every place of business. We've had contact tracing in place with self isolation for all contacts. Recently there was an outbreak at a restaurant ( around 140 infections over 2 weeks ) which resulted in over 1,000 people contact traced and isolated for 2 weeks.

In short, there is a system in place to lower the rates and to control any outbreaks.

[hogloff]

And yet you go with the statistics. I don't know about you, but I am pretty embarrassed by the US being eighth worst.

With all the wealth, R&D money and advanced medical research...being 8 worst in the world is nothing to be proud of.

[LesPalenik]

So what accounts for the low rates (in Canada)?  Most things are still locked up here although the rates are a lot lower now.

I think, Canadians comply more readily with the regulations and medical regulations. In this case, wearing the masks in the stores and other enclosed places, and also no mass gatherings. Now in the summer, I go a few times per week to a nearby uncrowded beach where nobody wears a mask, but there is plenty of space between the swimmers and people on the beach.

Since we can't carry guns, we have to think of other ways to fight the virus. Physical distancing is the most effective method.

[faberryman]

This kind of story is pretty common in the US news media:

No masks, no social distancing': 2 men charged after large pool party in N.J., police say

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/no-masks-no-social-distancing-2-men-charged-after-large-n1236507

Can you imagine paying $35 to catch COVID-19? It's the third party charging admission the NJ police have shut down this week.

[Alan Klein]

But they are both done with the first wave (roughly speaking) whereas the US is still on the up-ramp

Spain is 19 times smaller geographically.   NY Metro area was hit first,  It's been spreading to other areas since.   We're still in the first wave.   

[Alan Klein]

But what have they done lately. Sure Spain and Italy are bad because they got hit hard early...but have recovered quite nicely. The US got hit later...should have learned something from other countries...but is still out of control. Yes...those stats lie...today's stats is much more revealing.

My stats are today's stats.  It's real-time.

[Alan Klein]

We've had a consistent message from the Prime Minister right down to our mayor. We've had our head Dr. doing daily TV briefings. Nothing about the pandemic had been politicized.

So people have fallen into line with what has been preached to them every day by our medical and political people. I see a lot of social distancing, quite a few masks and washing stations at every place of business. We've had contact tracing in place with self isolation for all contacts. Recently there was an outbreak at a restaurant ( around 140 infections over 2 weeks ) which resulted in over 1,000 people contact traced and isolated for 2 weeks.

In short, there is a system in place to lower the rates and to control any outbreaks.

They say we have contact tracing in the USA.  But I don't believe it.   How do you contact trace someone who asymptomatic and hasn't been tested?

[Alan Klein]

With all the wealth, R&D money and advanced medical research...being 8 worst in the world is nothing to be proud of.

One of the disadvantages of being a constitutional federal republic of 50 states I suppose.  Each state is doing it differently. Freedom can be expensive.

[Alan Klein]

I think, Canadians comply more readily with the regulations and medical regulations. In this case, wearing the masks in the stores and other enclosed places, and also no mass gatherings. Now in the summer, I go a few times per week to a nearby uncrowded beach where nobody wears a mask, but there is plenty of space between the swimmers and people on the beach.

Since we can't carry guns, we have to think of other ways to fight the virus. Physical distancing is the most effective method.

It would be more interesting if you went to a beach where nobody wore anything.

[Alan Klein]

This kind of story is pretty common in the US news media:

No masks, no social distancing': 2 men charged after large pool party in N.J., police say

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/no-masks-no-social-distancing-2-men-charged-after-large-n1236507

Can you imagine paying $35 to catch COVID-19? It's the third party charging admission the NJ police have shut down this week.

I live in NJ.  How come no one invited me to the party? 

[hogloff]

My stats are today's stats.  It's real-time.

No, you don't get it. How many new cases and deaths has Italy today...now compare that to the US. Now tell me which country is better under control?

Here is today's numbers as of now:


Italy new cases 476  deaths: 10
US new case: 46,059  deaths: 1,120

[faberryman]

They say we have contact tracing in the USA.  But I don't believe it.   How do you contact trace someone who asymptomatic and hasn't been tested?

You don’t.

[hogloff]

They say we have contact tracing in the USA.  But I don't believe it.   How do you contact trace someone who asymptomatic and hasn't been tested?

Even if you tried contact tracing the delay of getting tested and getting the result ( sometimes over 10 days) puts it at useless. So when you have a breakout...it is big because you have no idea who else has been infected so things just carry on.

[hogloff]

One of the disadvantages of being a constitutional federal republic of 50 states I suppose.  Each state is doing it differently. Freedom can be expensive.

Canada has its own provinces and territories, each with their premiers and health systems...so it's not much different than the states. Big difference here is there is cooperation starting with out Prime Minister. We've had a conservative Premier ( like a governor ) praise the liberal Prime Minister ( like president ) on the job he was doing.

I don't see any praise given out by the republicans nor the democrats for their counter parties in the states. I just see back stabbing starting from your president.

And you wonder why things are different in the states. Just look no further than your leadership...or totally lack thereof.

[Alan Klein]

No, you don't get it. How many new cases and deaths has Italy today...now compare that to the US. Now tell me which country is better under control?

Here is today's numbers as of now:


Italy new cases 476  deaths: 10
US new case: 46,059  deaths: 1,120

I made the point somewheres, that the infection going through parts of the US are for the first time.  It's just taken a couple of months to get there. I predicted here a month ago, that it will be done by the end of August at which point all of America will be like the northeast.  Cases and deaths, but much lower numbers.

[Alan Klein]

Even if you tried contact tracing the delay of getting tested and getting the result ( sometimes over 10 days) puts it at useless. So when you have a breakout...it is big because you have no idea who else has been infected so things just carry on.

So we agree.  So that raises the question.  Why the big deal with testing.  IF you can test so few, and there are so many running around with asymptomatic, why even talk about tracing?  Is it just wishful thinking?

[Alan Klein]

moved to the other political thread.

[hogloff]

So we agree.  So that raises the question.  Why the big deal with testing.  IF you can test so few, and there are so many running around with asymptomatic, why even talk about tracing?  Is it just wishful thinking?

Yes if you are out of control...it might be just wasting time. Just do body counts...those are somewhat accurate...at least in the ballpark.