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Author Topic: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS  (Read 86399 times)

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #540 on: April 08, 2020, 06:41:20 pm »

They may be right, but I no longer trust that model. They change too radically in too short a time. There are several respectable models out there, and this is the one by far on the lowest end.


The prediction just makes the curve four days earlier for now.  That's not a huge change in time and therefore subsequent deaths.  Let's hope.  Things are getting testy at home here.  :)

armand

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #541 on: April 08, 2020, 07:46:13 pm »

Fortunately, the predictions seem to be going down on the number of deaths anticipated overall.

DEATH TOLL PROJECTIONS
The University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation model lowered its projected U.S. death toll by 26%, to 60,000 from 80,000 by August 4. The model is one of several that the White House task force has cited.

The task force previously projected 100,000 to 240,000 Americans could die.

The institute also moved up its projected peak in the number to U.S. deaths to this Sunday, when it predicted 2,212 people will succumb to the disease. The revision moves forward the projected peak by four days, suggesting the strain on the country’s healthcare system will lessen sooner than previously expected.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-usa/new-york-new-jersey-report-record-coronavirus-deaths-fear-death-toll-undercounted-idUSKBN21Q204

There are several critiques of that model. It might still be right but currently it's the most optimistic of them.

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #542 on: April 08, 2020, 09:27:46 pm »

There are several critiques of that model. It might still be right but currently it's the most optimistic of them.
Since all these models are just that, models, final decisions about the next steps will be made by the administration based on actual statistics.  Let's hope things work out for the best.

chez

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #543 on: April 08, 2020, 09:39:27 pm »

Since all these models are just that, models, final decisions about the next steps will be made by the administration based on actual statistics.  Let's hope things work out for the best.

Trouble is by the time you get actual statistics...you are too late...the damage is done. That is why we use models.
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #544 on: April 08, 2020, 10:10:55 pm »

Trouble is by the time you get actual statistics...you are too late...the damage is done. That is why we use models.
We're talking about re-opening the economy based on actual statistics rather than models.  That's a safer approach.  It's not more damaging but rather less damaging.

chez

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #545 on: April 08, 2020, 10:16:09 pm »

We're talking about re-opening the economy based on actual statistics rather than models.  That's a safer approach.  It's not more damaging but rather less damaging.

What actual statistics are you talking about? The 2000 deaths a day we are on right now in the US? Or is it the lack of testing and keeping track of deaths in some of the states making the numbers look good. What statistics do your really trust?
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #546 on: April 08, 2020, 11:04:44 pm »

What actual statistics are you talking about? The 2000 deaths a day we are on right now in the US? Or is it the lack of testing and keeping track of deaths in some of the states making the numbers look good. What statistics do your really trust?
You're making a political statement.  I can't respond.

armand

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #547 on: April 08, 2020, 11:43:52 pm »

Since all these models are just that, models, final decisions about the next steps will be made by the administration based on actual statistics.  Let's hope things work out for the best.

Funny! What do you think these models are?
I’ll help, they are also called statistical models. It’s just a more complex interpretation of the data.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_model

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #548 on: April 09, 2020, 01:00:11 am »

Funny! What do you think these models are?
I’ll help, they are also called statistical models. It’s just a more complex interpretation of the data.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Statistical_model
Sorry if my point was confusing.  The earlier models predicting higher deaths have been superseded by more recent real-world statistics indicating that the actual deaths should be less. It's the later statistics and modelling that will be used to influence decisions when to open up the economy.   The medical issue is not as bad as previous modelling indicated.

LesPalenik

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #549 on: April 09, 2020, 01:45:11 am »

Timeline for Covid-19 Fatalities By Country (average count for the last 7 days)

the horizontal axis show number of days after the 100th death
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LesPalenik

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #550 on: April 09, 2020, 03:13:22 am »

Sorry if my point was confusing.  The earlier models predicting higher deaths have been superseded by more recent real-world statistics indicating that the actual deaths should be less. It's the later statistics and modelling that will be used to influence decisions when to open up the economy.   The medical issue is not as bad as previous modelling indicated.

Sadly, the actual deaths in USA are increasing. This could be due to more actual cases than reported cases. The more infections, the greater the death count. 

Quote
New York state, epicenter of America’s coronavirus crisis, set another single-day record of COVID-19 deaths on Wednesday, as veteran doctors and nurses voiced astonishment at the speed with which patients were deteriorating and dying.

Doctors and nurses say elderly patients and those with underlying health conditions are not the only ones who appear relatively well one moment and at death’s door the next. It happens to the young and healthy, too.
Patients “look fine, feel fine, then you turn around and they’re unresponsive,” said Diana Torres, a nurse at Mount Sinai Hospital in New York City, the center of the nation’s worst outbreak. “I’m paranoid, scared to walk out of their room.”

Nearly 430,000 cases of COVID-19, the highly infectious lung disease caused by the coronavirus, were confirmed in the United States as of Wednesday afternoon, including more than 14,700 deaths. For the second straight day the virus killed at least 1,900 in a 24-hour period. Cuomo said 779 people had died in the past day in his state. New Jersey reported 275 had died there. Both totals exceeded one-day records from just a day earlier.

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Jeremy Roussak

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #551 on: April 09, 2020, 05:24:33 am »

I wouldn't breathe fiberglass fibers floating around in the air. But what do I know?

Not very much, it seems. Your instant retreat from the falsity of your baseless assertion that inhaled fibreglass causes cancer to "I wouldn't breathe fibreglass fibres" is merely amusing.

Jeremy
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Paulo Bizarro

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #552 on: April 09, 2020, 05:47:46 am »

If there's a second stage, then those that waited may turn out better for them since more of their people have gotten infected.  Herd immunity will be better in those countries. They may recover faster than the early birds.  Don;t assume you have it all figured out.  History has a way of surprising us.  All the, I told you so's, may come back to haunt you.

No country will have acquired herd immunity, that requires 60-70% population to be infected. In Europe, the most affected countries so far, Italy and Spain, are at 10% at best. So, all countries will need to prepare for the second wave now. The second wave of the spanish flu was the most deadly, in 1919/1920.

No one has all figured out, but there are some measures that can be implemented, following common sense.

chez

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #553 on: April 09, 2020, 08:34:08 am »

You're making a political statement.  I can't respond.

It's not political. I just want to understand your statistics.
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #554 on: April 09, 2020, 09:14:16 am »

Not very much, it seems. Your instant retreat from the falsity of your baseless assertion that inhaled fibreglass causes cancer to "I wouldn't breathe fibreglass fibres" is merely amusing.

Jeremy
No it does not cause cancer but there are a lot of occupational health papers on lung irritation and exacerbation of other lung disease symptoms. 
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #555 on: April 09, 2020, 09:18:48 am »

No country will have acquired herd immunity, that requires 60-70% population to be infected. In Europe, the most affected countries so far, Italy and Spain, are at 10% at best. So, all countries will need to prepare for the second wave now. The second wave of the spanish flu was the most deadly, in 1919/1920.

No one has all figured out, but there are some measures that can be implemented, following common sense.
Without a validated serology test to look at a very large community exposure cohort, nobody can say for certain what the background level of infection is.  there have been "guesses" that infection rates are under counted by an order of magnitude or more.  I have seen reports that Germany is beginning to do community testing for antibodies but it appears limited right now.  If there is any one approach that can help solve this issue it's large scale testing.
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #556 on: April 09, 2020, 09:21:59 am »

I just finished my daily review of pre-prints and clinical trials for my daily newsletter.  I came across a very interesting Canadian vaccine trial (I you live in Vancouver, you might be eligible).  It uses a microorganism in yogurt to express the SARS-CoV-2 antigen and is taken orally.  Here is a link to the company website where this is described:  https://www.symvivo.com/covid-19  Very cool if it works!!
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #557 on: April 09, 2020, 10:28:58 am »

Very interesting study of minimum distances between people when moving compared to standing still, https://medium.com/@jurgenthoelen/belgian-dutch-study-why-in-times-of-covid-19-you-can-not-walk-run-bike-close-to-each-other-a5df19c77d08. Bottom line, you need more distance during movement like walking, running, cycling. See articles for estimates of minimum distances under various conditions. Glad someone has addressed this. It ha been a concern for people in the cycling community.
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Robert

Robert Roaldi

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #558 on: April 09, 2020, 10:46:34 am »

I just wanted to make one off-topic aside. Isn't it interesting how our culture seems to highly value ball players, financial hucksters, scions of trust funds, and CEOs by rewarding them with nearly unprecedented levels of wealth but now we're suddenly scouring worldwide for the latest word from unknown researchers who in more normal times have to spend significant parts of their days begging for research grants. I enjoy watching videos of Messi dribbling the ball past 3 defenders and zipping it into the net for a goal. But right about now, I'd trade 10 Messis for one post-doc who finds a drug that kills Covid-19.

I know it's an unfair comparison, apples and oranges. I'm just saying that maybe our priorities may be slightly out of alignment with what matters. But people prefer to play than to work, I don't think that's going to change anytime soon.
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armand

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #559 on: April 09, 2020, 12:05:21 pm »

I just wanted to make one off-topic aside. Isn't it interesting how our culture seems to highly value ball players, financial hucksters, scions of trust funds, and CEOs by rewarding them with nearly unprecedented levels of wealth but now we're suddenly scouring worldwide for the latest word from unknown researchers who in more normal times have to spend significant parts of their days begging for research grants. I enjoy watching videos of Messi dribbling the ball past 3 defenders and zipping it into the net for a goal. But right about now, I'd trade 10 Messis for one post-doc who finds a drug that kills Covid-19.

I know it's an unfair comparison, apples and oranges. I'm just saying that maybe our priorities may be slightly out of alignment with what matters. But people prefer to play than to work, I don't think that's going to change anytime soon.

There was a theme I came across one of these days on the same idea. You pay C Ronaldo or Messi with more than 1 mil/month and yet now your are looking for answers to researchers payed less than 2k/month.
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