Pages: 1 ... 31 32 [33] 34 35 ... 126   Go Down

Author Topic: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS  (Read 86337 times)

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #640 on: April 11, 2020, 11:11:06 pm »

I wouldn't put their figures in the same basket as other countries actually. Anyway we must think China is a huge country and Wuhan was locked down very efficiently. If we just considered the Wuhan region or Hubei city, the rates would be very different (they would basically move up and right in the graph).

Regards

OK Let's discount China.  what about Korea?  I can't tell from the log chart.  Are the numbers going down or just staying at a low level?  What are they doing to accomplish that.  It seems very impressive.  We should be able to learn something from them.

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #641 on: April 11, 2020, 11:21:31 pm »

Finnish researchers released a dramatic video how someone coughing in a store could spread the virus droplets in one isle and across the isles.
The video is available on Spiegel site and text in English below. Spread of virus droplets in a store

https://www.kron4.com/health/coronavirus/see-it-simulation-shows-how-cough-can-spread-coronavirus-in-grocery-stores/
Les, it was in German so I couldn't understand the narrator.  Did he indicate that the virus itself was alive during the whole few minutes? Have they tested to see if people actually get infected by breathing air from so far away?  Or does there have to be a certain amount of viral particles that land in your nose or mouth for it to take root?

The other things is that the flow indicated to me that due to the HVAC system and its air flow or an open door, how fast and where it goes would be very dependent on those things.  Did he describe how the air distribution was working in the space?  It seem to flow in one direction mainly.

LesPalenik

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5339
    • advantica blog
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #642 on: April 11, 2020, 11:38:56 pm »

Les, it was in German so I couldn't understand the narrator.  Did he indicate that the virus itself was alive during the whole few minutes? Have they tested to see if people actually get infected by breathing air from so far away?  Or does there have to be a certain amount of viral particles that land in your nose or mouth for it to take root?

The other things is that the flow indicated to me that due to the HVAC system and its air flow or an open door, how fast and where it goes would be very dependent on those things.  Did he describe how the air distribution was working in the space?  It seem to flow in one direction mainly.

The main take is the visual aspect of it how can the droplet cloud spread within an isle and across the isles. The narrator said (as it was visible in the animation) that the amount of droplets further from the source is diminished and the smaller amount of droplets may be not enough to infect others, but the possibility remains. Also that further experiments and studies are needed.

Obviously, the height of the isles is also important in the horizontal movement of the droplets. Wearing a mask may further mitigate the effect of droplets coming from the neighbouring isles.
Logged

LesPalenik

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5339
    • advantica blog
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #643 on: April 11, 2020, 11:44:22 pm »

here is all all-American image:


Logged

Manoli

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2296
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #644 on: April 12, 2020, 02:55:09 am »

OK Let's discount China.  what about Korea?
What are they doing to accomplish that.  It seems very impressive.  We should be able to learn something from them.

1/ Social distancing, contact tracing, personal hygiene
2/ A highly effective triage and treatment system developed as a result of the experience of the MERS outbreak.
3/ Extensive screening and fast tracking of suspect cases - emergency diagnostic kits and a weekly diagnostic capability of 430,000.
4/ Drive-through and walk-through test centres.
Logged

Manoli

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2296
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #645 on: April 12, 2020, 03:04:57 am »


FT:
April 9: All maps and charts now exclude nursing home deaths from France’s totals to maintain cross-national comparability
April 7: The maps now display total deaths rather than confirmed cases.




Logged

Paulo Bizarro

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 7393
    • http://www.paulobizarro.com
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #646 on: April 12, 2020, 04:41:00 am »

We'll never know the true counts...other than its quite a bit higher than the official counts.

In Portugal, in March 2020, compared to 2019, number of deaths went up, after excluding Covid-19 cases. For every Covid-19 death, there are 3 deaths due to no-Covid-19, above the same period for 2019. It will be impossible to get an accurate number, because not everyone that dies was tested for Covid-19.

Paulo Bizarro

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 7393
    • http://www.paulobizarro.com
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #647 on: April 12, 2020, 04:51:04 am »

Sorry to hear it but I understand.

Same here. Unfortunately, some people here only introduce noise.

Paulo Bizarro

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 7393
    • http://www.paulobizarro.com
Re: WHO'S BEATING CORONAVIRUS
« Reply #648 on: April 12, 2020, 04:56:22 am »

Based on this type of visualization: https://lnkd.in/eiHE3gG
I represented total deaths (X) vs daily deaths (Y) per million inhabitants for some countries caused by COVID-19, using log scale on both axis.
The plot has visual interpretations:
- Countries still in an early stage in controlling the disease (UK, US, Germany?) show a rectilinear trend since daily deaths grow at roughly the same rate as total deaths.
- Plots getting close to a vertical asymptote correspond to countries managing to control the spread and effects of the coronavirus (see China, S. Korea?, Italy or Spain)
- In the same ways plots reaching higher points in the X or Y axis correspond to countries with more daily and total deaths per inhabitant. Here Spain is unfortunately the current 'winner' on both axis.



Thanks. Indeed, here in Portugal, given the up and down beahviour of daily cases (500 - 1500 -  500 in the last 3 days) which is due to a bottleneck in the labs capacity to process the high numer of tests, which in turn creates a large number in the category of "awaiting results", and given that there are already many days after case #1, it is more meaningful now to look at:

1. plotting the average of the previous 7 days, to get rid of these ups and downs. When we do that, we get a stable plateau type curve.

2. look at the trends in number of people getting hospitalized, and from those, ICU occupancy - this is independent of number of tests.

3. look at death numbers like you did - this is also independent of number of tests.

Regards

elliot_n

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1219
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #649 on: April 12, 2020, 05:31:41 am »

Sars-CoV-2 vs Sars.

Sars-CoV-2 produces more pathogens and hides beneath the immune system’s radar:

https://www.scmp.com/news/hong-kong/health-environment/article/3079502/coronavirus-causes-covid-19-can-produce-more
Logged

Guillermo Luijk

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2005
    • http://www.guillermoluijk.com
Re: WHO'S BEATING CORONAVIRUS
« Reply #650 on: April 12, 2020, 06:57:10 am »

(...)
I updated the plot with today's data and added Portugal for you. Also plotted Hubei which accounts for 96% of reported deaths in China (another matter to discuss about). Hubei's curve is an offset version of whole China's:



Update: added Belgium and Holland. Belgium doesn't seem to be taking this seriously enough.
« Last Edit: April 12, 2020, 08:08:24 am by Guillermo Luijk »
Logged

LesPalenik

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5339
    • advantica blog
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #651 on: April 12, 2020, 08:11:09 am »

It's remarkable how similar is the trajectory for so many countries (excl. China and South Korea).
Logged

Robert Roaldi

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4763
    • Robert's Photos
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #652 on: April 12, 2020, 08:21:09 am »

It's remarkable how similar is the trajectory for so many countries (excl. China and South Korea).

At first glance it is but maybe it isn't. All people behave more or less in the same way. We talk to each other, we buy food, we work in factories and offices and those places are the same the world over, we go to parties and restaurants. The virus doesn't care about national borders, it just transmits the way it transmits. I think it would be more surprising if the trajectories were wildly different from each other. The later reaction to the virus, how to deal with it, may reflect different levels of social cohesion when addressing a common problem and that seems to be more affected by culture.
Logged
--
Robert

LesPalenik

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5339
    • advantica blog
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #653 on: April 12, 2020, 08:38:04 am »

At first glance it is but maybe it isn't. All people behave more or less in the same way. We talk to each other, we buy food, we work in factories and offices and those places are the same the world over, we go to parties and restaurants. The virus doesn't care about national borders, it just transmits the way it transmits. I think it would be more surprising if the trajectories were wildly different from each other. The later reaction to the virus, how to deal with it, may reflect different levels of social cohesion when addressing a common problem and that seems to be more affected by culture.

There are enough principal differences between all these countries and how they deal with the crisis:

Start of the crisis (first infection case), different travel regulations, climate (air temperature and humidity), lockdown degrees, average population age, discipline of citizens to adhere to imposed lockdowns), testing volume, available hospital capacity, availability of masks and ventilators, etc.
The individual curves start to diverge at the end of the shown time axis. In the next 2-weeks segment, we may see more differences in the individual outcomes. 
Logged

chez

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2501
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #654 on: April 12, 2020, 09:32:22 am »

In Portugal, in March 2020, compared to 2019, number of deaths went up, after excluding Covid-19 cases. For every Covid-19 death, there are 3 deaths due to no-Covid-19, above the same period for 2019. It will be impossible to get an accurate number, because not everyone that dies was tested for Covid-19.

I think the best approximation is to use the Covid-19 tally and add the difference in deaths between last years average and this years deaths. Sure these extra deaths won't be totally Covid-19'caused, but I would think it would be a very close approximation.
Logged

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #655 on: April 12, 2020, 09:35:06 am »

It's remarkable how similar is the trajectory for so many countries (excl. China and South Korea).
That's what I was about to say.  All the arguments how America should have started earlier makes no sense because everyone pretty much did they same thing and have they same results. 

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #656 on: April 12, 2020, 09:41:27 am »

There are enough principal differences between all these countries and how they deal with the crisis:

Start of the crisis (first infection case), different travel regulations, climate (air temperature and humidity), lockdown degrees, average population age, discipline of citizens to adhere to imposed lockdowns), testing volume, available hospital capacity, availability of masks and ventilators, etc.
The individual curves start to diverge at the end of the shown time axis. In the next 2-weeks segment, we may see more differences in the individual outcomes. 
I don't think so.  Even in America, we're seeing a flattening out as cases and deaths appear to be leveling off, especially in hard-hit areas like the NY Metro Area which represented 60% of the cases in the country.  The big unknown is whether the virus is going to die out naturally or continue on through the summer and fall or adapt into another virus next year.  Let's prepare for the latter and pray for the former.

Robert Roaldi

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4763
    • Robert's Photos
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #657 on: April 12, 2020, 09:46:14 am »

That's what I was about to say.  All the arguments how America should have started earlier makes no sense because everyone pretty much did they same thing and have they same results.

Are you kidding? The curve shapes may be similar but the actual numbers are different. The countries that started earlier are experiencing less suffering.
Logged
--
Robert

Robert Roaldi

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4763
    • Robert's Photos
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #658 on: April 12, 2020, 09:47:47 am »

I don't think so.  Even in America, we're seeing a flattening out as cases and deaths appear to be leveling off, especially in hard-hit areas like the NY Metro Area which represented 60% of the cases in the country.  The big unknown is whether the virus is going to die out naturally or continue on through the summer and fall or adapt into another virus next year.  Let's prepare for the latter and pray for the former.

It may be flattening in NY but may be increasing elsewhere. The fact that numbers are low now in other areas means almost nothing. It was low in NY at one point as well. There's no magic involved here.
Logged
--
Robert

LesPalenik

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5339
    • advantica blog
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #659 on: April 12, 2020, 09:50:53 am »

I don't think so.  Even in America, we're seeing a flattening out as cases and deaths appear to be leveling off, especially in hard-hit areas like the NY Metro Area which represented 60% of the cases in the country.  The big unknown is whether the virus is going to die out naturally or continue on through the summer and fall or adapt into another virus next year.  Let's prepare for the latter and pray for the former.

It doesn't look like the USA curve is flattening. Fluctuating would a better description.
 
Quote
As of Friday evening, 18,637 people in the United States have died of coronavirus, according to a tally by Johns Hopkins University, an increase of 1,953 deaths from Thursday.

States like New York and New Jersey may have already passed their peaks this week, but Florida and Texas could see the worst by the end of the month, according to the IHME model.

The IHME's modeling also estimates more people will die from coronavirus than previously predicted.
On Wednesday, the IHME estimated that 60,415 in the US would die of coronavirus by August, assuming social distancing policies continue through May. On Friday, that estimate increased to 61,500.

https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/10/health/us-coronavirus-friday/index.html
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 31 32 [33] 34 35 ... 126   Go Up