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Author Topic: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS  (Read 86357 times)

John Camp

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #800 on: April 22, 2020, 09:42:46 pm »

For those who haven't seen it yet, here is a link to the latest update from the University of Washington’s (Seattle) Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, whose data-driven models are preferred by the Trump Administration over the more theoretical ones produced by the Imperial College (London) model.

A very interesting link. A lot of people don't understand exactly how this model works (including Anderson Cooper, who kept asking the guy how much testing we needed for the model to work, and the guy kept telling him that we didn't need any testing -- what we needed was to push down the infection rate to below 1, by any means, and we could contain the virus.)

One thing I take from this model, if it's correct, is that Georgia is in a heap of trouble.

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Chris Kern

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #801 on: April 22, 2020, 10:03:06 pm »

One thing I take from this model, if it's correct, is that Georgia is in a heap of trouble.

Yesterday's update of the University of Washington model apparently is what prompted President Trump to say at today's White House press briefing that he disagrees with Georgia Governor Brian Kemp's decision to relax the restrictions on certain nonessential businesses that inherently require individuals to be in close proximity, such as spas, beauty salons, tattoo parlors, and barbershops.

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #802 on: April 22, 2020, 10:33:22 pm »

A very interesting link. A lot of people don't understand exactly how this model works (including Anderson Cooper, who kept asking the guy how much testing we needed for the model to work, and the guy kept telling him that we didn't need any testing -- what we needed was to push down the infection rate to below 1, by any means, and we could contain the virus.)

One thing I take from this model, if it's correct, is that Georgia is in a heap of trouble.


I'm in Anderson's corner.  Why not 0?  Why not 2?  1 out of 1,000,000 is an arbitrary human contrived number.  Viruses don't count. 

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #803 on: April 22, 2020, 10:35:43 pm »

Yesterday's update of the University of Washington model apparently is what prompted President Trump to say at today's White House press briefing that he disagrees with Georgia Governor Brian Kemp's decision to relax the restrictions on certain nonessential businesses that inherently require individuals to be in close proximity, such as spas, beauty salons, tattoo parlors, and barbershops.
Political statements belong in the other thread.  :)

armand

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #804 on: April 22, 2020, 10:48:03 pm »

My post is not political.  It's questioning the science behind their theory  Your post and their theory are as speculative as anyone else's.  To argue that someone's theory of how we should do things is the only truth, is just a way to shut up someone else's viewpoint.  It's a logical argument I'm making.  Why should anyone take what some publication says as the truth.  To not argue it's deficiencies is stacking the deck.  And who are you to make that determination that they're correct?  Frankly, if Jeremy decides to stop me from posting to this thread based on this, or the OP figures he should halt the thread again because he doesn't like opposing viewpoints, I'll be glad to go away and let you both preach to the choir on your own. It would be a  pyrrhic victory proving your prejudice on how to determine truth.

Let me make it easier for you: when you keep throwing Trump did that, Trump does this, etc, the post should go to the other side.
Questioning the models is reasonable, but you can't contain yourself to just that.


The models unfortunately depends on many factors and the statistical interpretations. By definition they cannot be exact but try to estimate based on what we know. Perfect? Of course not, it's already proven. Is there anything better? No.
Here is some basic look into why they differ: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/22/upshot/coronavirus-models.html?campaign_id=57&emc=edit_ne_20200422&instance_id=17870&nl=evening-briefing&regi_id=67698600&segment_id=25772&te=1&user_id=a0c2889b363b214306ce6c8ef2136194
For example the IHME (washington) looks at how the disease evolved in other places, while others look at actual data of how the virus spreads, etc. So the latter have the potential to be more accurate but unfortunately there are still uncertainties regarding Covid.

Many will make adjustments based on actual deaths and there is an issue of reporting.

As I said before, I don't look at the actual absolute numbers but the timings and trends but to be honest, I don't need to, it's beyond my paygrade. I'm sure those who actually make decisions based on models know significantly more details.

One more thing, most will take into account the significant distancing; once this is loosened I doubt those numbers will be valid anymore.

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #805 on: April 22, 2020, 11:20:44 pm »

Let me make it easier for you: when you keep throwing Trump did that, Trump does this, etc, the post should go to the other side.
Questioning the models is reasonable, but you can't contain yourself to just that.


The models unfortunately depends on many factors and the statistical interpretations. By definition they cannot be exact but try to estimate based on what we know. Perfect? Of course not, it's already proven. Is there anything better? No.
Here is some basic look into why they differ: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/22/upshot/coronavirus-models.html?campaign_id=57&emc=edit_ne_20200422&instance_id=17870&nl=evening-briefing&regi_id=67698600&segment_id=25772&te=1&user_id=a0c2889b363b214306ce6c8ef2136194
For example the IHME (washington) looks at how the disease evolved in other places, while others look at actual data of how the virus spreads, etc. So the latter have the potential to be more accurate but unfortunately there are still uncertainties regarding Covid.

Many will make adjustments based on actual deaths and there is an issue of reporting.

As I said before, I don't look at the actual absolute numbers but the timings and trends but to be honest, I don't need to, it's beyond my paygrade. I'm sure those who actually make decisions based on models know significantly more details.

One more thing, most will take into account the significant distancing; once this is loosened I doubt those numbers will be valid anymore.
Nothing wrong with rough guidelines.  But they're rough.  Having no real history, it's hard to set up the algorithms.  It's a lot of guesswork.  Think of the stock market.  You'd think with all the thousands of experts and years of record keeping, they'd get projections right.  Who would have thought oil would cost -$39 a barrel?  Minus!!! That happened yesterday.  No one wanted the oil.  You had to pay people to take it off your hands.  Like your garbage. 

In any case, now we're going to have 50 experiments in 50 states to see who does best and who does worst and everywhere in between.  Different time frames will be selected by the governors.  There will be different rules, different monitoring, different testing.  This is what's best about the American federal system.  We get to experiment a lot and learn from each state.  That can't happen in a centralized government nation where one rule affects the entire country.  If the first state who opens up gets damaged because the virus picks up too much, the rest of the 49 states will back off and wait saving more people from infections and deaths.  On the other hand, if the first state has no major problems, the other 49 states will move up the re-open dates and maybe save the US economy.  We'll know pretty soon. 

LesPalenik

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #806 on: April 22, 2020, 11:29:53 pm »

Yesterday's update of the University of Washington model apparently is what prompted President Trump to say at today's White House press briefing that he disagrees with Georgia Governor Brian Kemp's decision to relax the restrictions on certain nonessential businesses that inherently require individuals to be in close proximity, such as spas, beauty salons, tattoo parlors, and barbershops.

That was actually quite smart comment. Put the tattoo salons on the 2050 re-open list.
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #807 on: April 23, 2020, 12:44:52 am »

That was actually quite smart comment. Put the tattoo salons on the 2050 re-open list.
Maybe I can go to a tattoo parlor to get a haircut. I'm starting to look like Larry.
https://images2.minutemediacdn.com/image/upload/c_fill,g_auto,h_1248,w_2220/f_auto,q_auto,w_1100/v1555321935/shape/mentalfloss/stooges_primary.jpg

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #808 on: April 23, 2020, 12:58:08 am »

Sweden resisted a lockdown, and its capital Stockholm is expected to reach ‘herd immunity’ in weeks
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html

LesPalenik

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #809 on: April 23, 2020, 03:38:54 am »

Sweden resisted a lockdown, and its capital Stockholm is expected to reach ‘herd immunity’ in weeks
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-lockdown-in-sweden-but-stockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html

One side effect of this approach will be reduced old age security payouts.
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LesPalenik

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #810 on: April 23, 2020, 04:09:27 am »

Walgreens reports that they have now toilet paper, but are running low on large size condoms. That could have some serious implications in 2021.

Quote
Trojan Magnum Large Size Condoms
Due to unusually high demand, we're experiencing limited item availability and significant delays that will affect your delivery date.

Quote
Malaysia’s Karex Bhd makes one in every five condoms globally. Global supply has fallen by almost 50% while its stockpile is set to last for just another two months. Karex has not produced a single condom from its three Malaysian factories for more than a week due to a lockdown imposed by the government to halt the spread of the virus. That’s already a shortfall of 100 million condoms, normally marketed internationally by brands such as Durex, supplied to state healthcare systems such as Britain’s NHS or distributed by aid programs such as the UN Population Fund.

The company was given permission to restart production on Friday, but with only 50 per cent of its workforce, under a special exemption for critical industries. “It will take time to jumpstart factories and we will struggle to keep up with demand at half capacity,” Chief Executive Goh Miah Kiat told Reuters. “We are going to see a global shortage of condoms everywhere, which is going to be scary,” he said. “My concern is that for a lot of humanitarian programs deep down in Africa, the shortage will not just be two weeks or a month. That shortage can run into months.”

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/its-still-an-essential-to-have-global-shortage-of-condoms-as-covid-19-pandemic-hits-worlds-biggest-producers
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Ray

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #811 on: April 23, 2020, 07:32:56 am »

Blood-pressure drugs are in the crosshairs of COVID-19 research.
https://www.physiciansweekly.com/blood-pressure-drugs-are-in/

"Scientists are baffled by how the coronavirus attacks the body – killing many patients while barely affecting others.
A disproportionate number of patients hospitalized by COVID-19 .....have high blood pressure.

An estimated 100 million U.S. residents suffer from high blood pressure, which increases the risk of heart disease, stroke and kidney failure.

There is evidence that the drugs may increase the presence of an enzyme – ACE2 – that produces hormones that lower blood pressure by widening blood vessels. That’s normally a good thing. But the coronavirus also targets ACE2 and has developed spikes that can latch on to the enzyme and penetrate cells, researchers have found. So more enzymes provide more targets for the virus, potentially increasing the chance of infection or making it more severe."


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Manoli

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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #813 on: April 23, 2020, 08:29:17 am »

One side effect of this approach will be reduced old age security payouts.
As a 75 year old, that was exactly what I was thinking about.   :(  Younger population, lower national health insurance, stronger stock.  Of course, the guy who recommended and implemented this said they are of course concerned (sic) about the old age population and doing everything to help them.  But the truth is, it may work out best for the old people as well.  If the herd immunity works, that will protect them in the future.  We could find out in a year or so, that Sweden's procedure is the best method.  While the rest of us may have another bout with this disease next year, they may ride it out with no or little difficulty.

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #814 on: April 23, 2020, 08:33:11 am »

 
Walgreens reports that they have now toilet paper, but are running low on large size condoms. That could have some serious implications in 2021.

https://nationalpost.com/news/world/its-still-an-essential-to-have-global-shortage-of-condoms-as-covid-19-pandemic-hits-worlds-biggest-producers

Unfortunately, that's not one of my problems.  ???

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #815 on: April 23, 2020, 08:44:41 am »

Blood-pressure drugs are in the crosshairs of COVID-19 research.
https://www.physiciansweekly.com/blood-pressure-drugs-are-in/

"Scientists are baffled by how the coronavirus attacks the body – killing many patients while barely affecting others.
A disproportionate number of patients hospitalized by COVID-19 .....have high blood pressure.

An estimated 100 million U.S. residents suffer from high blood pressure, which increases the risk of heart disease, stroke and kidney failure.

There is evidence that the drugs may increase the presence of an enzyme – ACE2 – that produces hormones that lower blood pressure by widening blood vessels. That’s normally a good thing. But the coronavirus also targets ACE2 and has developed spikes that can latch on to the enzyme and penetrate cells, researchers have found. So more enzymes provide more targets for the virus, potentially increasing the chance of infection or making it more severe."



Another thing I got to worry about. ACE inhibitors.  Alan G:  Have you come across any papers on this or research?

LesPalenik

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #816 on: April 23, 2020, 08:52:25 am »

Another thing I got to worry about. ACE inhibitors.  Alan G:  Have you come across any papers on this or research?

Yes, this is quite worrisome. I wonder if any cardiologists and pharmacists are aware of this finding.
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Manoli

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #817 on: April 23, 2020, 08:58:48 am »

A very short monograph on Covid-19, by one Peter Kolchinsky.

Quote

While not technically alive, there's an evil genius to viruses that never ceases to amaze me. It's one reason I became a virologist. A recent Nature paper reveal a remarkable trick SARS-Cov-2 learnt that makes it nastier than the first SARS. Both viruses attach via their external spike protein to a protein on our cells called ACE2. Think of it as a particular doorknob that the virus knows how to turn. Every virus has a particular type of doorknob that it attaches to and turns so it can enter (infect) a cell.

For example, HIV has to turn two doorknobs: CD4 and typically CCR5. MERS attached to one called DPP4. All our cells are covered in all kinds of proteins that make them distinctive from one another. Those proteins aren’t there to let in viruses. They have all kinds of functions such as regulating blood pressure, our immune response, sugar levels in our blood, etc.  But viruses have evolved to grab onto one or more proteins to gain entry into cells, where they hijack the cell’s machinery to make more viruses. (Viruses can't replicate on their own & hence, are not quite alive).

So what viruses see are a bunch of houses w/ varying doorknobs & they try to spread through the neighborhood (our bodies) looking for houses (cells) covered in the doorknobs that they know how to turn. HIV enters T cells b/c T cells are covered in CD4 & CCR5 doorknobs that HIV knows how to turn. That makes HIV the kind of virus that destroys our immune system. Well, the ACE2 doorknob that SARS-1 & SARS-2 use is present on a variety of cells, including those in our lungs & throat. SARS-1 would enter a person via a droplet in the air (from cough) & quickly start infecting lung cells, causing severe damage person could really feel (i.e. become symptomatic). In other words, SARS-1 quickly made its presence known. In some patients, SARS-1 would go into the upper airways to replicate from where it could spread to others with a cough (or just breathing). But b/c SARS-1 patients got very sick from all the virus replicating in their lungs, they were quarantined before others got close enough to get sneezed or coughed on.

SARS-2, on the other hand, takes up residence in the throat cells first, which doesn’t cause significant symptoms. The person can remain asymptomatic or might not think they have anything worse than a cold. And from that person’s throat it can readily spread to others. Over the course of a week, in some patients, it will move into the lung neighborhood and replicate just as SARS-1 would, causing severe symptoms, by which point the person is quarantined, but no matter since it had successfully spread.

So SARS-1 was a comparatively dumb virus. It went straight for the lungs, announced itself before it could spread to others, and so got social distanced into extinction. But SAR-2, the one plaguing us now, is stealthier, spreading first before revealing itself (and causing harm).

What’s the take-away for all of us? It’s that beating this virus means social distancing & wearing masks even if we think we aren’t infected. Because we might be. The virus might be replicating in our throats without us knowing (that’s its evil plan!), so put up a roadblock.

Peter Kolchinsky
Virologist, Author ' The Great American Drug Deal'

Also,
https://www.city-journal.org/coronavirus-vaccine

« Last Edit: April 23, 2020, 09:03:09 am by Manoli »
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LesPalenik

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #818 on: April 23, 2020, 10:06:51 am »

Blood-pressure drugs are in the crosshairs of COVID-19 research.
https://www.physiciansweekly.com/blood-pressure-drugs-are-in/

"Scientists are baffled by how the coronavirus attacks the body – killing many patients while barely affecting others.
A disproportionate number of patients hospitalized by COVID-19 .....have high blood pressure.

An estimated 100 million U.S. residents suffer from high blood pressure, which increases the risk of heart disease, stroke and kidney failure.

There is evidence that the drugs may increase the presence of an enzyme – ACE2 – that produces hormones that lower blood pressure by widening blood vessels. That’s normally a good thing. But the coronavirus also targets ACE2 and has developed spikes that can latch on to the enzyme and penetrate cells, researchers have found. So more enzymes provide more targets for the virus, potentially increasing the chance of infection or making it more severe."


Ray, thank you for this link.
Since all hospitals with C19 patients have the information on their patient's medications, it would be relatively quick and simple for them to confirm or reject this theory.
Even better, anybody who has the clearance to access this data, could aggregate the information from all hospitals in his country or state and then draw the conclusions from a much larger sample.
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #819 on: April 23, 2020, 10:30:34 am »

Breaking Radio Silence -  of course I am masking up when I go to the store to stock up on provisions.  I like to find interesting vendors who are making a contribution to the pandemic effort.  I have purchased bow ties from Lisa Eaton who runs a small shop up in Maine.  She started making cotton masks in answer to a request from local EMS folks.  I purchased five of her masks about 10 days ago.  I got an email from her today with the latest patterns and guess what ----- a very cool RGB mask with hex codes!  Just what every photographer needs.  Maybe you can even do a camera profile by taking a picture of the mask!!! 

Here's a link that shows the picture:  https://www.bowtie.com/#!/Adult-Face-Mask-Hex-Code-Color-Map/p/192059155/category=20799076  there are more nice patterns on the site as well.

I have no financial interest in Ms. Eaton's business.

Back to radio silence!
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