My post is not political. It's questioning the science behind their theory Your post and their theory are as speculative as anyone else's. To argue that someone's theory of how we should do things is the only truth, is just a way to shut up someone else's viewpoint. It's a logical argument I'm making. Why should anyone take what some publication says as the truth. To not argue it's deficiencies is stacking the deck. And who are you to make that determination that they're correct? Frankly, if Jeremy decides to stop me from posting to this thread based on this, or the OP figures he should halt the thread again because he doesn't like opposing viewpoints, I'll be glad to go away and let you both preach to the choir on your own. It would be a pyrrhic victory proving your prejudice on how to determine truth.
Let me make it easier for you: when you keep throwing Trump did that, Trump does this, etc, the post should go to the other side.
Questioning the models is reasonable, but you can't contain yourself to just that.
The models unfortunately depends on many factors and the statistical interpretations. By definition they cannot be exact but try to estimate based on what we know. Perfect? Of course not, it's already proven. Is there anything better? No.
Here is some basic look into why they differ:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/22/upshot/coronavirus-models.html?campaign_id=57&emc=edit_ne_20200422&instance_id=17870&nl=evening-briefing®i_id=67698600&segment_id=25772&te=1&user_id=a0c2889b363b214306ce6c8ef2136194For example the IHME (washington) looks at how the disease evolved in other places, while others look at actual data of how the virus spreads, etc. So the latter have the potential to be more accurate but unfortunately there are still uncertainties regarding Covid.
Many will make adjustments based on actual deaths and there is an issue of reporting.
As I said before, I don't look at the actual absolute numbers but the timings and trends but to be honest, I don't need to, it's beyond my paygrade. I'm sure those who actually make decisions based on models know significantly more details.
One more thing, most will take into account the significant distancing; once this is loosened I doubt those numbers will be valid anymore.