The numbers are what they are. One can use any measure to show the US response has been dismal. Look at hospitalization usage in the current hard hit states. In some regions they are at 100% capacity. We know that there are improved treatments now and all those people will not die. However, as was the case in New York, it puts a huge burden on the healthcare system and those who might need hospitalization for some non-COVID condition are put in peril.
One of the things I am tracking in my newsletter is the trend in infection and Case Rate Fatality (CRF). CRF has traditionally been used by the public health community to gauge how problematic an epidemic is/was. At present, it is an imprecise number as the total number of infections is not known with precision. I look at the numbers daily to see what the trend might be. The US CRF stands at 4.3%. I continue to believe as more accurate numbers come in this will drop by about a factor of 10 but that is still higher than any other influenza outbreak other than the Spanish Flu of 1918-19.
One can do the thought experiment based on herd immunity. In the absence of a vaccine, we will need to reach the herd immunity point which is unknowable right now. To make the math easy, assume it to be 60% of the population getting infected and recovering. That is 198 M people and we are no where close to that. If you assume my CFR estimate (0.5%) total mortality ends up at 990 K deaths, totally unacceptable which is why we need to be doing so much more.
