COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS

[Alan Klein]

I hope the Chinese vaccine is not anything like their tests kits. I read they weren't that hot.

90% of our medicine comes from China and India.  I feel so safe. Every morning when I take my pills, I say a little prayer.

[Chris Kern]

. . . experts have changed their minds on most issues.  They still don't have all the facts.  Their recommendations are offered with doubts.  They hedge their bets.  For example, they say that  covid spreading by envelopes and touching surfaces probably doesn't happen.  But the experts recommend that people continue to disinfect surfaces and be careful.  What kind of a recommendation is that? 

It's a well-considered recommendation, based on what is currently known about the virus, which represents an expert consensus.

The consensus is that fomite transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is indeed possible:

Respiratory secretions or droplets expelled by infected individuals can contaminate surfaces and objects, creating fomites (contaminated surfaces). Viable SARS-CoV-2 virus and/or RNA detected by RT-PCR can be found on those surfaces for periods ranging from hours to days, depending on the ambient environment (including temperature and humidity) and the type of surface, in particular at high concentration in health care facilities where COVID-19 patients were being treated. . . .  Therefore, transmission may also occur indirectly through touching surfaces in the immediate environment or objects contaminated with virus from an infected person (e.g. stethoscope or thermometer), followed by touching the mouth, nose, or eyes.

Despite consistent evidence as to SARS-CoV-2 contamination of surfaces and the survival of the virus on certain surfaces, there are no specific reports which have directly demonstrated fomite transmission. People who come into contact with potentially infectious surfaces often also have close contact with the infectious person, making the distinction between respiratory droplet and fomite transmission difficult to discern. However, fomite transmission is considered a likely mode of transmission for SARS-CoV-2, given consistent findings about environmental contamination in the vicinity of infected cases and the fact that other coronaviruses and respiratory viruses can transmit this way.

―Transmission of SARS-CoV-2: implications for infection prevention precautions.  (Scientific brief, World Health Organization, July 9, 2020, citations omitted.)

While the current evidence suggests that most infections whose source can be determined have resulted from direct, often prolonged, person-to-person interaction via droplets and aerosols, it obviously isn't easy to contact-trace a surface and identify it as the source of a particular infection.  And, as the W.H.O. brief points out, people who came into contact with a surface which might have transmitted the virus to them also tend to have been in contact with the infected individuals who contaminated the surface.

[Alan Klein]

It's a well-considered recommendation, based on what is currently known about the virus, which represents an expert consensus.

The consensus is that fomite transmission of SARS-CoV-2 is indeed possible:

While the current evidence suggests that most infections whose source can be determined have resulted from direct, often prolonged, person-to-person interaction via droplets and aerosols, it obviously isn't easy to contact-trace a surface and identify it as the source of a particular infection. And, as the W.H.O. brief points out, people who came into contact with a surface which might have transmitted the virus to them also tend to have been in contact with the infected individuals who contaminated the surface.

But that's where the question comes in with mail.  You're not in contact with either the people who sent it or the mailman who delivered it. So most experts have said that you can't get it from mail (or maybe you can.?)  Ditto with packages delivered from FedEx or supermarket delivery of groceries.  However, we disinfect everything or wait three days to handle.  But most people have stopped doing that because the consensus is you can't get it from touching mail or packages.  The problem is it's a "Consensus". 

The article I was making this point from above, said the following.  What is the average layman suppose to make of it?  "The general consensus now is that “fomites” — germs on surfaces — aren’t the major transmission route for Covid-19. Van Kerkhove of WHO said there hasn’t been a case recorded where it’s clear someone was infected by fomites alone."

[Chris Kern]

The article I was making this point from above, said the following.  What is the average layman suppose to make of it?  "The general consensus now is that “fomites” — germs on surfaces — aren’t the major transmission route for Covid-19. Van Kerkhove of WHO said there hasn’t been a case recorded where it’s clear someone was infected by fomites alone."

You quoted a reputable publication and the article appears to be well-researched.  But the average layman (and even the below- or above-average layman) would be well-advised to read the entire section on fomites before jumping to conclusions.  That includes:

The general consensus now is that “fomites” — germs on surfaces — aren’t the major transmission route for Covid-19. Van Kerkhove of WHO said there hasn’t been a case recorded where it’s clear someone was infected by fomites alone.

(In the real world, someone in close enough contact with an infected person to become infected will likely have encountered viruses on surfaces and virus-laced droplets and maybe even small, aerosol-sized particles containing the virus that have been expelled by coughing, singing, or speaking. Teasing out of that situation which route of transmission triggered infection may be impossible to do.)

But it’s clear from lots of studies that surfaces around infected people can be contaminated with viruses and the viruses can linger. Cleaning surfaces and being prudent about hand hygiene is a risk-lowering step people can take, public health officials agree.

(Emphasis supplied.)

As I believe others in this thread have noted before, absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

If you're not an expert yourself, with the credentials and experience to evaluate the research―which, as an expert, you surely have personally reviewed and discussed with fellow experts―the rational thing for an average layman is to try to understand what the experts are recommending and to follow their advice.

[faberryman]

But most people have stopped doing that because the consensus is you can't get it from touching mail or packages.

Would it be too much to ask for a link to something supporting this conclusion?

My own opinion, completely unsupported by any evidence, is that a lot of people never did it in the first place, or if they did, they quit after a while because it was too big a hassle. My further opinion, also unsupported by any evidence, is that most people are not checking the WHO website every day to see if there are any changes to their guidance on handling the mail, and then comparing it to the guidance from the CDC and other experts, to determine if there is a developing consensus on what to do with tomorrow's mail. I suspect most people go to sleep dead tired at night having left things undone, and don't have time to keep up with this stuff. I am not endorsing that, just expressing my opinion about what is going on in the real world.

As a side note, why do you believe any of this stuff about germs on surface transmission? Have you vetted all the scientists? They could be radical left wing climate change scientists moonlighting at the COVID related grant gravy train.

[LesPalenik]

But that's where the question comes in with mail.  You're not in contact with either the people who sent it or the mailman who delivered it. So most experts have said that you can't get it from mail (or maybe you can.?)  Ditto with packages delivered from FedEx or supermarket delivery of groceries.  However, we disinfect everything or wait three days to handle.  But most people have stopped doing that because the consensus is you can't get it from touching mail or packages.  The problem is it's a "Consensus". 

The article I was making this point from above, said the following.  What is the average layman suppose to make of it? "The general consensus now is that “fomites” — germs on surfaces — aren’t the major transmission route for Covid-19. Van Kerkhove of WHO said there hasn’t been a case recorded where it’s clear someone was infected by fomites alone."

Indeed, most people are either confused or they ignore all the medical advice.
It's unbelievable that we have over 22 million cases and almost 800,000 deaths worldwide, and the people in charge are not able to use and interpret this data to come up with some solid conclusions.

[degrub]

But that's where the question comes in with mail.  You're not in contact with either the people who sent it or the mailman who delivered it. So most experts have said that you can't get it from mail (or maybe you can.?)  Ditto with packages delivered from FedEx or supermarket delivery of groceries.  However, we disinfect everything or wait three days to handle.  But most people have stopped doing that because the consensus is you can't get it from touching mail or packages.  The problem is it's a "Consensus". 

The article I was making this point from above, said the following.  What is the average layman suppose to make of it?  "The general consensus now is that “fomites” — germs on surfaces — aren’t the major transmission route for Covid-19. Van Kerkhove of WHO said there hasn’t been a case recorded where it’s clear someone was infected by fomites alone."

WASH YOUR HANDS after contact and before you touch your eyes, mouth, or nose.  So handle the mail/packages, open it, dispose of it, and wash your hands before doing anything else.

[hogloff]

90% of our medicine comes from China and India.  I feel so safe. Every morning when I take my pills, I say a little prayer.

Good thing as you would not afford them if they came from the USA.

[faberryman]

Good thing as you would not afford them if they came from the USA.

Who can afford their medicine as it is? I got this printout from my pharmacy at the end of the year so I could tally up my medical expenses for tax purposes, and it showed the retail price along with what insurance paid and what I paid. Wow! And that was just for me. My wife's were higher.

[Craig Lamson]

Indeed, most people are either confused or they ignore all the medical advice.
It's unbelievable that we have over 22 million cases and almost 800,000 deaths worldwide, and the people in charge are not able to use and interpret this data to come up with some solid conclusions.

As Madam Speaker says, People are gonna do what people do.

No amounts of governmental Edicts will change some people’s behavior.  At least here. 

[hogloff]

Who can afford their medicine as it is? I got this printout from my pharmacy at the end of the year so I could tally up my medical expenses for tax purposes, and it showed the retail price along with what insurance paid and what I paid. Wow! And that was just for me. My wife's were higher.

I'm on my wife's medical plan. We both have a $100 deductible after which all drugs are paid for. My wife has Parkinson's and her drugs would be about $400 a month. I don't even break my $100 deductible.

[hogloff]

As Madam Speaker says, People are gonna do what people do.

No amounts of governmental Edicts will change some people’s behavior.  At least here.

Well when you have your leaders go against the medical community...I can see why people just give up and say screw it...I'll just party. When you have a consistent message throughout all levels of government and the medical community...that message goes a long way.

[Alan Goldhammer]

I check to see if I've won anything when the mail first comes in.  These I spritz with 91% isopropyl alcohol and immediately open.  The bills sit on the shelf for three days before opening.

I take no special care with the mail.  Transfer of virus from paper products is not anything I worry about.  I also don't take any precautions with groceries either.

[Alan Goldhammer]

I hope the Chinese vaccine is not anything like their tests kits. I read they weren't that hot.

Not true, some had very good specificity and sensitivity.

[Alan Goldhammer]

You think sleepy joe is all truth and light?

Did you read that this thread is supposed to be free of politics?  Clean it up!

[hogloff]

I take no special care with the mail.  Transfer of virus from paper products is not anything I worry about.  I also don't take any precautions with groceries either.

When I go get groceries I wear a mask, sanitize my hands at the entrance, use a sanatized cart, sanatize my hands on the way out, wash my hands when I get home, put away the groceries and wash my hands once again when done.

[Craig Lamson]

Did you read that this thread is supposed to be free of politics?  Clean it up!

A little selective with your admonishments....

[Alan Klein]

You quoted a reputable publication and the article appears to be well-researched.  But the average layman (and even the below- or above-average layman) would be well-advised to read the entire section on fomites before jumping to conclusions.  That includes:

As I believe others in this thread have noted before, absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

If you're not an expert yourself, with the credentials and experience to evaluate the research―which, as an expert, you surely have personally reviewed and discussed with fellow experts―the rational thing for an average layman is to try to understand what the experts are recommending and to follow their advice.

I've said I'm convinced that surfaces can transmit the virus and we disinfect everything.  My point is the wavering and lack of clarity by experts does not produce confidence in many laypeople.  It's confusing to them.  The experts leave a lot open to interpretation. You can't expect most people to be as meticulous as we are here in the forums about these things.

[Alan Klein]

Indeed, most people are either confused or they ignore all the medical advice.
It's unbelievable that we have over 22 million cases and almost 800,000 deaths worldwide, and the people in charge are not able to use and interpret this data to come up with some solid conclusions.

Thanks for your support.  The confusion is across the board.  They just opened gyms in New York.  Then the decided it was a bad idea and shut them down again.  Schools?  Does anyone know what to do?  One day they say let's do this.  The next day it's something else.  Sports?  Same thing. Why should the public believe with confidence anything they hear from experts, the government or anyone else?  Everyone's winging it. By the way.  I don;t blame the experts or government.  This is all new WE really don't know what to do.  New Zealand just shut down the country because 3 or 4 people in a family got sick.  Seems medically sound.  But the whole country?  How are people going to eat if they're not producing?

[Alan Klein]

WASH YOUR HANDS after contact and before you touch your eyes, mouth, or nose.  So handle the mail/packages, open it, dispose of it, and wash your hands before doing anything else.

How do you dispose of it?  Once you handle it you move potential virus from the mail to your hand to the pen you touched to write the check to pay the bill, to the check, etc.  Originally I would disinfect the mail with alcohol.  But my wife complained she couldn't read the inside because the alcohol ran all the print.  So I moved to the three day wait method.  I doubt if one person in ten does what I do.  Some of my friends, also seniors like me, are already eating out in restaurants.  They swear they sit 6 feet away from others and the waitresses look pretty healthy.  Who am I to argue.