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Author Topic: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS  (Read 87572 times)

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1540 on: June 24, 2020, 01:57:57 pm »

Of course it is a dire situation for many people. Comparing May 2020 with May 2019, there are more 100,000 unemployed in Portugal. tourism sector, especially in the Algarve, was severely hit. But this is a situation where the EU should put up or shut up, as all countries are getting hit.

I am getting fully paid as before.

Would you be so insistent on shutting down the economy and isolating people, as you have been, if you, God forbid, lost your job? Can you see where others less fortunate than you have a differing opinion?

I just learned that Europe may shut down travel from the US.  How will countries like Portugal who rely on the tourism to a large degree deal with the loss of income?   Also, it seems that Portugal like the US, is having its share of additional cases again and is not doing so well as you've been claiming.  They're shutting down certain areas that's going to slow down business and tourism even more.

"6/23/2020 10:20 AM
Coronavirus in Europe: Germany and Portugal reimpose localised restrictions
Portugal reimposes restrictions in Lisbon region.
 
Lockdown restrictions to halt the spread of coronavirus have been reimposed in the Lisbon area in Portugal.
 
Just as its neighbours are opening back up in the hope of saving their tourism seasons, Portugal has been forced to take a step backwards from reopening, as it currently ranks second in the EU for the most new cases in per capita, according to data collected by AFP.
 
Restrictions have been reimposed in the Lisbon metropolitan area, which include: the banning of consumption of alcohol in public areas, the closure of terraces or cafes at 8pm local time, and the limiting of the size of rallies."

https://www.euronews.com/2020/06/23/coronavirus-live-spain-and-portugal-see-new-clusters-raising-second-wave-fears

hogloff

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1541 on: June 24, 2020, 07:04:20 pm »

Would you be so insistent on shutting down the economy and isolating people, as you have been, if you, God forbid, lost your job? Can you see where others less fortunate than you have a differing opinion?

I just learned that Europe may shut down travel from the US.  How will countries like Portugal who rely on the tourism to a large degree deal with the loss of income?   Also, it seems that Portugal like the US, is having its share of additional cases again and is not doing so well as you've been claiming.  They're shutting down certain areas that's going to slow down business and tourism even more.

"6/23/2020 10:20 AM
Coronavirus in Europe: Germany and Portugal reimpose localised restrictions
Portugal reimposes restrictions in Lisbon region.
 
Lockdown restrictions to halt the spread of coronavirus have been reimposed in the Lisbon area in Portugal.
 
Just as its neighbours are opening back up in the hope of saving their tourism seasons, Portugal has been forced to take a step backwards from reopening, as it currently ranks second in the EU for the most new cases in per capita, according to data collected by AFP.
 
Restrictions have been reimposed in the Lisbon metropolitan area, which include: the banning of consumption of alcohol in public areas, the closure of terraces or cafes at 8pm local time, and the limiting of the size of rallies."

https://www.euronews.com/2020/06/23/coronavirus-live-spain-and-portugal-see-new-clusters-raising-second-wave-fears

Sweden did not in theory shutdown but is still suffering the same economic issues. We've seen people refusing going back to work in pork processing plants as Covid spreads through them. Do you really think the economy would not be hit hard if we didn't shut down and say 500,000 people lost their lives?

Tell me, will you be going to Europe in the fall? Would you be comfortable doing so? I know I've put on hold any foreign travel until the world is immunized. Would you feel OK going on a cruise tomorrow?

I think the vast majority of people are still very leary going about business as usual.
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BobShaw

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1542 on: June 25, 2020, 02:30:18 am »

Tell me, will you be going to Europe in the fall? Would you be comfortable doing so? I know I've put on hold any foreign travel until the world is immunized. Would you feel OK going on a cruise tomorrow?
Yesterday
Europe, all of it, over 40 countries - 13,109 new cases and 522 new deaths. Spain, the former hot spot,  for example had 2 deaths.
USA itself, 38,386 new cases and 808 new deaths yesterday.

I would look at a cruise say Australia , New Zealand, Pacific Islands but that won't be happening for some time as cruise ships are currently banned until September I think.
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Paulo Bizarro

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1543 on: June 25, 2020, 04:53:22 am »

Would you be so insistent on shutting down the economy and isolating people, as you have been, if you, God forbid, lost your job? Can you see where others less fortunate than you have a differing opinion?

I just learned that Europe may shut down travel from the US.  How will countries like Portugal who rely on the tourism to a large degree deal with the loss of income?   Also, it seems that Portugal like the US, is having its share of additional cases again and is not doing so well as you've been claiming.  They're shutting down certain areas that's going to slow down business and tourism even more.

"6/23/2020 10:20 AM
Coronavirus in Europe: Germany and Portugal reimpose localised restrictions
Portugal reimposes restrictions in Lisbon region.
 
Lockdown restrictions to halt the spread of coronavirus have been reimposed in the Lisbon area in Portugal.
 
Just as its neighbours are opening back up in the hope of saving their tourism seasons, Portugal has been forced to take a step backwards from reopening, as it currently ranks second in the EU for the most new cases in per capita, according to data collected by AFP.
 
Restrictions have been reimposed in the Lisbon metropolitan area, which include: the banning of consumption of alcohol in public areas, the closure of terraces or cafes at 8pm local time, and the limiting of the size of rallies."

https://www.euronews.com/2020/06/23/coronavirus-live-spain-and-portugal-see-new-clusters-raising-second-wave-fears

If I had lost my job, I would have some support from the government, as many others had and are still having, via unemployment subsidies or temporary lay off schemes.

You seem to confuse "local restrictions" with lockdown, but I will not repeat myself over and over again. I already listed the measures imposed in Lisbon area which are only for 19 parishes (not sure how to translate "freguesias"). Comparing Portugal to what is happening in the USA is laughable. Portugal is top 5 in number of tests per 100,000 people in Europe, and we are not afraid or reimpose some restrictions.

As for tourism, yes, the impact will be heavy, as for Spain, Italy, France, Greece. Competition is fierce to attract tourists. Spain stopped reporting number of deaths until UEFA decided that the Champions League Final would be in Portugal... what a coincidence...

jeremyrh

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1544 on: June 25, 2020, 06:18:07 am »

Tell me, will you be going to Europe in the fall? Would you be comfortable doing so? I know I've put on hold any foreign travel until the world is immunized. Would you feel OK going on a cruise tomorrow

I'll be happy to go to Europe but not to the US.  It remains to be seen whether USA'ns will be able to travel to Europe anyway.
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KLaban

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1545 on: June 25, 2020, 06:38:37 am »

I'll be happy to go to Europe but not to the US.  It remains to be seen whether USA'ns will be able to travel to Europe anyway.

Having had three trips cancelled already this year - India, Morocco and Greece - I'm desperate to travel. Trouble is I'm in a high risk category and therefore a degree of caution is called for.

We'll see.

Come on Oxford!!!

Chris Kern

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1546 on: June 26, 2020, 07:04:23 pm »

An exceptional animated graphic comparing the global death count from various causes, produced using a data visualization tool created for the news industry by Google.

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1547 on: June 26, 2020, 07:30:19 pm »

An exceptional animated graphic comparing the global death count from various causes, produced using a data visualization tool created for the news industry by Google.
The deaths are terrible for the virus.  But it's a deceptive graph. The Covid is showing actual increases on a daily basis.  The totals for the rest of the diseases, all of them, are already inputted for the entire year and then the daily amount is figured divided by 385 days.  So the relative diseases never change.  They all stay the same length relative to each other and never changes the order.  It's dramatic but creates a false presentation..  If they did the same method for another disease like let's say drowning, it would seem worse too as it climbed in the statistics.  Why not just show the total amount in one line for Covid?  It's bad enough.

Chris Kern

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1548 on: June 26, 2020, 07:45:59 pm »

. . . it's a deceptive graph. The Covid is showing actual increases on a daily basis.  The totals for the rest of the diseases, all of them, are already inputted for the entire year . . .

You misinterpreted it.  It compares the number of deaths from all causes between January 1 and May 24, 2020.  The bar for COVID-19 deaths is animated to allow the viewer to visualize the combinatorial explosion of SARS-CoV-2 infections.

The totals for the rest of the diseases, all of them, are already inputted for the entire year and then the daily amount is figured divided by 385 days.

No, the data for all causes are for the first 144 days of the year.

Craig Lamson

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1549 on: June 26, 2020, 07:54:23 pm »

An exceptional animated graphic comparing the global death count from various causes, produced using a data visualization tool created for the news industry by Google.

Thanks, that’s a really interesting way understand the explosion of this virus.
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1550 on: June 26, 2020, 08:19:08 pm »

You misinterpreted it.  It compares the number of deaths from all causes between January 1 and May 24, 2020.  The bar for COVID-19 deaths is animated to allow the viewer to visualize the combinatorial explosion of SARS-CoV-2 infections.

No, the data for all causes are for the first 144 days of the yearo
It's the same thing.  So they took the total for the 144 days and divided by 144 or they took the 365 total and just showed the first 144 days.  Either way you get the same effect.   So the relative graphs for all the diseases except Covid never changes.  Covid changes because they are inputting the daily quantities of actual deaths.  The rest is a daily total average based on the 144 days.  If they switched the method and listed actual daily changes for let's say drownings, you'd see it jump around too.  It creates a false impression because the methodology for Covid is expressed differently than all the others.

There's another more glaring phoniness that I just noticed.  At the bottom of the graph is a note: "*Except COVID, causes of death shown account for ~7% of global deaths annually"

So what they did is eliminate 93% of the worlds deaths by other causes.  That puts Covid at the top of the graph because they eliminated those types of diseases on the graph.  That's another distortion that makes it seem like Covid kills more people than any other disease, which is false.  Lies, damn lies, and statistics.

Here are the diseases not shown on the graph that killed more people than any other disease on the graph including Covid.
First is worse.  Covid not shown, statistics are for 2017.
Cardiovascular diseases
Cancers
Respiratory diseases
Lower respiratory infections
Dementia
Digestive diseases
Neonatal disorders
Diarrheal diseases
Diabetes
Liver diseases
Road injuries
Kidney disease
Tuberculosis
HIV/AIDS
Suicide
https://ourworldindata.org/causes-of-death

 

LesPalenik

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1551 on: June 26, 2020, 08:48:33 pm »

Half of the suicides are just different endings of some of the other diseases listed above.
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1552 on: June 26, 2020, 08:52:34 pm »

Half of the suicides are just different endings of some of the other diseases listed above.
Don't understand.

LesPalenik

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1553 on: June 26, 2020, 08:59:23 pm »

Don't understand.
If your cancer or hip pain become intolerable and you can't get the surgery for a year (Hip surgery waiting time in Ontario is now 14-16 months), you may decide to take different action than waiting.
OTOH, if it is dementia, you won't even notice.
 
« Last Edit: June 27, 2020, 11:26:08 am by LesPalenik »
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Chris Kern

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1554 on: June 27, 2020, 10:24:52 am »

The New York Times has an interesting piece today on apportioning a scarce resource during the pandemic: elevators.

Quote
Employers and building managers are drafting strict rules for going up: severe limits on the number of riders (four seems to be the new magic number), designated standing spots to maximize social distance, mandatory masks, required forward-facing positions — and no talking.

Here in the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention plan to issue guidance on the safe use of elevators and escalators shortly, according to the Times.

Quote
“The good news is: If you don’t like small talk in the elevator, those days are over,” said Jonathan Woloshin, head of U.S. real estate at UBS Global Wealth Management’s chief investment office . . .

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1555 on: June 27, 2020, 10:31:34 am »

The New York Times has an interesting piece today on apportioning a scarce resource during the pandemic: elevators.

Here in the United States, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention plan to issue guidance on the safe use of elevators and escalators shortly, according to the Times.
I have to go to my dentist in NYC and he's in an elevated building.  That's one of my concerns.  I'm not sure if I feel better with the new rules.  I think I'll ask the elevator starter to let me take one of the elevators by myself.  I shouldn't be too crowded especially in the middle of the day and now that many people are still not working.   Going down, I could walk from the 8th floor.  The whole thought of going to a dentist scares me what with the virus.
« Last Edit: June 27, 2020, 11:59:41 am by Alan Klein »
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John Camp

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1556 on: June 27, 2020, 01:03:22 pm »

Because of an odd circumstance (the need for lots of sanding of paint) I had a couple of dozen N95 masks sitting around before the pandemic started. They were two different designs, both N95. That got me wondering -- would it be possible to put together a *better* low-cost mask than N95? We're beginning to hear that masks can be quite effective, but most masks don't appear to me to be very good -- they're improvised layers of cotton or polyester that might slow down a persons sneeze and protect other people, but they don't seem likely to protect the wearing, s N95 masks do. At the same time, we're hearing that it's not that common to pick up the disease from surfaces (although it's still possible.) But it would seem that if we had really effective masks, and mandatory orders to wear them, we might actually be able to open safely.

« Last Edit: June 27, 2020, 05:28:47 pm by John Camp »
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hogloff

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1557 on: June 27, 2020, 01:24:10 pm »

Because of an odd circumstance (the need for lots of sanding of paint) I had a couple of dozen N95 masks sitting around before the pandemic started. They were two different designs, both N95. That got me wondering -- would it be possible to put together a *better* low-cost mask than N95? We're beginning to hear that masks can be quite effective, but most masks don't appear to me to be very good -- they're improvised layers of cotton or polyester that might slow down a persons sneeze and protect other people, but they don't seem likely to protect the wearing, s N95 masks do. At the same time, we're hearing that it's not that common to pick up the disease from surfaces (although it's still possible.) But it would seem that if we had really effective masks, and mandatory orders to were them, we might actually be able to open safely.

But there lies the problem...people feel it's their right not to wear a mask. Funny I bet these same people use their seat belts when in a vehicle. Maybe if all prominent people would wear masks...things would be different.

I don't wear a mask when I can distance myself like walking the dog...but anywhere distancing is not possible, my mask comes on.
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1558 on: June 27, 2020, 01:51:35 pm »

I drove to the supermarket today to pick up food order by phone.  Curbside pickup.  Passed by a  restaurant.  Breakfast type place, very popular before.  Loads of tables outside with people waiting to sit down, 6 feet apart.  Eaters had no masks at least the ones sitting at the tables.  Loads of traffic.  Yesterday passed by expensive Chinese restaurant. All the tables were out in the parking lot about 1/3 full.  But it was early Friday.  Don;t recall if they had masks on.  Most people moving around have masks on or put them on when they go into the stores.  This is in central New Jersey about 50 miles from NYC.  Things seem to be picking up.

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #1559 on: June 27, 2020, 01:56:30 pm »

But there lies the problem...people feel it's their right not to wear a mask. Funny I bet these same people use their seat belts when in a vehicle. Maybe if all prominent people would wear masks...things would be different.

I don't wear a mask when I can distance myself like walking the dog...but anywhere distancing is not possible, my mask comes on.
You're the guy everyone else points their fingers at complaining, "Look.  That guy's got no mask on."  :)
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