COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS

[Paulo Bizarro]

They've recently discovered that parents who overprotect their children from dirt, bacteria, etc., wind up hurting them when they get older.  Because they haven't developed antibodies when young, as adults they are opened to all sorts of infections that other adults can withstand because they were exposed to them when children.  Allergies such as to peanuts is another malady that adults would avoid if they ate peanut butter when they were young.

The point is, immediate benefits don't necessarily mean long-term benefits.  So called "experts" have been wrong about diets, food groups, and all sorts of medical issues that have affected health negatively.  It takes a lot of hubris to think they have all the answers up front about a new virus and how it's going to play out in the future.

I thought we were talking about Covid-19, not peanut butter. Point is, even with uncertainties around the new virus, there are well known and established procedures that protect people from getting infected, reduce the number of deaths, and protect communities.

[LesPalenik]

"Excess deaths" is a crude, broad-brush measure, useful for the press. There's abundant evidence that terror of coronavirus infection has led to avoidance of medical treatment for more serious conditions, and hence to increased mortality from those conditions.

Jeremy

Not only the terror of coronavirus infection, but even more the rigid lockdown rules which prevent the doctors and other medical professionals from treating their patients.

[kers]

"Excess deaths" is a crude, broad-brush measure, useful for the press. There's abundant evidence that terror of coronavirus infection has led to avoidance of medical treatment for more serious conditions, and hence to increased mortality from those conditions.

Jeremy

If that is so, it is a side effect of the Corona virus.

[jeremyrh]

If that is so, it is a side effect of the Corona virus.

The cool thing about this here internet is that in a few clicks you can find analysis by folks who are actually experts in a field, and don't just pretend to expertise, hence in 3 clicks you arrive at an analysis of potential effects on excess death figures:

https://twitter.com/d_spiegel

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2295


https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/analysisofdeathregistrationsnotinvolvingcoronaviruscovid19englandandwales28december2019to1may2020/technicalannex

[Manoli]

What isn't accurate? Do tell.

No, not in a non-political thread. 

But, as you’ve raised the point, I’d remind you of your favourite QC, Jolyon Maugham, who took to task some regional health authorities for deliberately instructing medical staff to NOT cite Covid-19 as a cause of death, when one could possibly assign it to other causes.

Just one small example in a litany of ‘prima facie’ reports of political wilful manipulation.

[Manoli]

Jeremy,

Mindful that Covid-19 mortality is significantly correlated with vitamin D levels, I’m on a beach, thankfully with an iPad, boostin’ me Vitamin D.

Excellent therapeutic benefits. I’d encourage you to follow my example.

Manoli

[jeremyrh]

Jeremy,

Mindful that Covid-19 mortality is significantly correlated with vitamin D levels, I’m on a beach, thankfully with an iPad, boostin’ me Vitamin D.

Excellent therapeutic benefits. I’d encourage you to follow my example.

Manoli

On which topic ...

a video about the evidence for benefit of vitamin D ...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qyMFsLFAE5o&feature=emb_logo

I'm looking forward to being on a beach as well - the reason I'm not is that there is a quarantine in place to prevent people from Greece bringing infection to the UK.  Go figure.

[hogloff]

What isn't accurate? Do tell.

"Excess deaths" is a crude, broad-brush measure, useful for the press. There's abundant evidence that terror of coronavirus infection has led to avoidance of medical treatment for more serious conditions, and hence to increased mortality from those conditions.

Jeremy

But those deaths are still the result of the virus even if not directly.

[Manoli]

... there is a quarantine in place to prevent people from Greece bringing infection to the UK.  Go figure.

That’s indeed an issue, but best discussed in the other thread as, from what I’ve been told, the issue in the UK is somewhat confused - 18 year old’s can’t yet go back to school but they can soon go to the pub ?

Not sure if that comes under damage limitation or science - but either way, someone please post in the political thread.

[LesPalenik]

The cool thing about this here internet is that in a few clicks you can find analysis by folks who are actually experts in a field, and don't just pretend to expertise, hence in 3 clicks you arrive at an analysis of potential effects on excess death figures:

https://twitter.com/d_spiegel

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2295


https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/analysisofdeathregistrationsnotinvolvingcoronaviruscovid19englandandwales28december2019to1may2020/technicalannex

Jeremy,

thanks for posting those links.
Especially the last one is quite a comprehensive analysis of the possible reasons for deaths. I suspect, same pattern is occurring in many other countries.

[Jeremy Roussak]

If that is so, it is a side effect of the Corona virus.

Of course; but an indirect effect, primarily caused by the reaction to the presence of the virus rather than by the virus itself. It will be interesting to see how the excess deaths figures pan out over the next year or so: last week (admittedly only a snapshot), the excess deaths figure for London was negative.

The BMJ paper is interesting and balanced. The ONS statistics cover a period ending at the beginning of May and are therefore of very limited value.

Maugham has his own, highly political, axe to grind. "took to task" is a valid description of his activity only if the allegations he was promulgating have some basis in fact.

Jeremy

[LesPalenik]

Let's hope it ends during the summer and doesn't come back in the fall in a different strain.

Doesn't look like the virus will end in the summer. Many USA states and some European countries are reporting an increase of infections. Some of the hot spots can be attributed to the recent mass gatherings.

The reproduction of rate of the novel coronavirus in Germany has jumped to 1.79, the Robert Koch Institute (RKI) for public health said on Saturday, far above what is needed to contain the outbreak over the longer term.

Canada and USA are still just in the first wave of the pandemic which may last throughout summer. The second wave is expected in the fall.

We're pretending the virus is gone. That'll make it worse. The U.S. isn't ready for a 'second wave.'

[Alan Klein]

Doesn't look like the virus will end in the summer. Many USA states and some European countries are reporting an increase of infections. Some of the hot spots can be attributed to the recent mass gatherings.
 

In the US, it seems to be spreading mainly to areas that weren't hit earlier: the South and West. Meanwhile New York and New Jersey, which were hit hardest and earliest, are opening up.  It seem to take around two months to go through the population and stable off.  So that means that the new areas being hit now will be through the worse in August before the Fall season.

So then the question will be:  will the virus come back in a new form and we start all over again?  Or come back and start re-distributing through the population that wasn't hit before?  Or just play out with minor quantities of cases?  Or disappear entirely?

I could be describing the economy as well as the virus.

[Alan Klein]

Not only the terror of coronavirus infection, but even more the rigid lockdown rules which prevent the doctors and other medical professionals from treating their patients.

It's affecting the entire world.

Slowing the Coronavirus Is Speeding the Spread of Other Diseases
Many mass immunization efforts worldwide were halted this spring to prevent spread of the virus at crowded inoculation sites. The consequences have been alarming.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/06/14/health/coronavirus-vaccines-measles.html

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

What isn't accurate? Do tell.

"Excess deaths" is a crude, broad-brush measure, useful for the press.

I disagree, it's not just useful for the press. Our national Central Bureau for Statistics (CBS) reports on it for general purposes, e.g. to signal Excess Mortality that exceeds the upper/lower confidence levels that follow from previous years.

One of the things we see is that the excess mortality, especially amongst the older segments of population, was followed by a lower than expected mortality. This probably indicates that some of those people died earlier than they would otherwise have, and already had a poor fighting chance.

There's abundant evidence that terror of coronavirus infection has led to avoidance of medical treatment for more serious conditions, and hence to increased mortality from those conditions.

Yes, sadly enough a number of those cases will also contribute to the overall mortality statistics, but not all in the short term excess mortality, but more spread out in time. Shorter life expectancy will reflect that if the numbers are large enough. There is not a single stastistical number that tells it all, so they need to be used in combination.

[faberryman]

So I am thinking about the thought process of the persons that decide not to go to the hospital. Are they saying I would rather stay at home and die than go to the hospital and be saved, but run the risk of catching COV19 and maybe dying from that instead? Seems irrational to me.

[hogloff]

In the US, it seems to be spreading mainly to areas that weren't hit earlier: the South and West. Meanwhile New York and New Jersey, which were hit hardest and earliest, are opening up.  It seem to take around two months to go through the population and stable off.  So that means that the new areas being hit now will be through the worse in August before the Fall season.

So then the question will be:  will the virus come back in a new form and we start all over again?  Or come back and start re-distributing through the population that wasn't hit before?  Or just play out with minor quantities of cases?  Or disappear entirely?

I could be describing the economy as well as the virus.

I think the reason why the New York area has seen a decline is because of the shutdown measures put in place...not because the "virus went through the area". Opening up in a stupid manner will just get you back to where you were before. You are seeing spikes in places like Florida because of their lackadaisical opening up process. The virus has not gone away and lays waiting for its opportunity to jump into new hosts. Present these opportunities and you'll see a spike. 

[jeremyrh]

So I am thinking about the thought process of the persons that decide not to go to the hospital. Are they saying I would rather stay at home and die than go to the hospital and be saved, but run the risk of catching COV19 and maybe dying from that instead? Seems irrational to me.

I think they don’t appreciate the seriousness of their situation and so delay going to the hospital- maybe they have symptoms that they don’t recognise as being, say, cancer, and they don’t go to the hospital as they are concerned about catching the virus there due to inadequate infection control ( lack of PPE, testing etc).

[Manoli]

 
It seem to take around two months to go through the population and stable off.  So that means that the new areas being hit now will be through the worse in August before the Fall season.

That is one of the most dangerous and misleading assumptions I’ve read.

Florida reported 94,000 Covid-19 cases on Saturday, up 4.5%, the most new cases for a single day. USA wide Covid-19 cases increased by 34,000 to 2,240,000, up 1.6% - the highest growth rate so far this month. (John Hopkins).

If the Florida count is accurate, then presumably the USA one is lagging (or else incorrect).

[faberryman]

I think they don’t appreciate the seriousness of their situation and so delay going to the hospital- maybe they have symptoms that they don’t recognise as being, say, cancer, and they don’t go to the hospital as they are concerned about catching the virus there due to inadequate infection control ( lack of PPE, testing etc).

Are doctors offices open in the U.K. ? Were they closed for a period?