COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS

[LesPalenik]

Men use to smoke more than women.  I wonder if that has something to do with it.

Yes, that's one of the factors. The referenced article shows also that it could be due to the biological differences between men and women.

Researchers think this is in part because most women have two X chromosomes, and the X chromosome happens to contain most of the genes related to the immune system (and those with two X chromosomes instead of one also have a wider diversity of immune responses). This extra immune functioning, however, also seems to put women more at risk for autoimmune diseases, such as rheumatoid arthritis and Crohn’s disease.

Hormones might also help provide women with a more effective defense. Some important immune cells have estrogen receptors, and an estrogen supplement has been shown to increase general immune responses in mice.

[Alan Klein]

Yes, that's one of the factors. The referenced article shows also that it could be due to the biological differences between men and women.

Natural selection.  Grandchildren need grandmothers. Grandfathers are out playing golf. 

[Guillermo Luijk]

Without going into the details, and using the number of coronavirus deaths reported in Spain, I was very interested in having an estimation of the sensibility of number of deaths with respect to the init date of the social distancing rules. The result can be summarized in this graph:


(the X axis doesn't represent time but the date of beginning of the social distancing period)

In Spain social distancing began on 14-Mar, and for that beginning date the simulation outputs 25.159 coronavirus deaths by the end of the social distancing period (the actual figure will be higher since we are still having relevant daily deaths). The point now is, how many deaths we'd have had in case of beginning the social distancing in other dates?

• 1 week earlier (7-Mar): the simulation outputs 5.626 coronavirus deaths, so we would have saved nearly 20K lives vs 14-Mar
• 1 week later (21-Mar): the simulation outputs 80.404 coronavirus deaths, so we would have 55K additional deaths vs 14-Mar

The black curve represents these figures, Dead at the end of the social distancing period. The red curve represents its derivative vs the beginning date, i.e. how many lives can be "saved" by advancing 1 day the beginning of social distancing. By the date social distancing began in Spain (14-Mar), advancing social distancing meant 4,5K less coronavirus deaths per day in which the confinement was moved forward.

This is the Acum evolution of deaths for the three social distancing beginning date scenarios: 7-Mar, 14-Mar (real one) and 21-Mar (dotted line is real data):



Regards

[Robert Roaldi]

From Scientific American, a story about a Chinese virologist who looks for new viruses in bats, https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/how-chinas-bat-woman-hunted-down-viruses-from-sars-to-the-new-coronavirus1/. She says to be ready for others.

[Chris Kern]

The New York Times has published an internal U.S. government report which predicts a large increase in both infections and deaths over the next several weeks as most of the individual states begin to lift restrictions on commercial activity and public gatherings.

[The Trump] administration is privately projecting a steady rise in the number of cases and deaths from the coronavirus over the next several weeks, reaching about 3,000 daily deaths on June 1, according to an internal document obtained by The New York Times, nearly double from the current level of about 1,750.

The projections, based on modeling by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and pulled together in chart form by the Federal Emergency Management Agency, forecast about 200,000 new cases each day by the end of the month, up from about 25,000 cases now.

[chez]

The New York Times has published an internal U.S. government report which predicts a large increase in both infections and deaths over the next several weeks as most of the individual states begin to lift restrictions on commercial activity and public gatherings.

Now that's scary.

[bassman51]

Now that's scary.

How could it be otherwise?   On March 16, around the time that the lockdowns began, the US had about 4,600 active confirmed cases (and certainly many more unconfirmed).  With social distancing and other restrictions, that number grew to over 950,000 today (and certainly many more unconfirmed), and more than 68,000 people died in the interim.   Relaxing the various restrictions as started last week from our current base of infection can't possibly do anything but lead to a horrific number of deaths in May and June.

[LesPalenik]

Surprisingly, the Worldometer C19 stats  show significant decline both for USA and Western Europe in the last few days, especially for today.

[Alan Klein]

Surprisingly, the Worldometer C19 stats  show significant decline both for USA and Western Europe in the last few days, especially for today.

Let's hope seasonal change affects the virus and it dies out like the regular flu. 

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

Surprisingly, the Worldometer C19 stats  show significant decline both for USA and Western Europe in the last few days, especially for today.

Reporting issue?

It's unlikely that there is otherwise any synchronicity, with such globally varying introduction events, physical distancing regimes, and lack of testing capabilities.
Also, do note that there is a weekly pattern in the reported cases, which indicates the effects of weekends and weekdays, to which the virus itself is not reacting. And then there is a lag between infection and symptoms/hospitalization/mortality.

[elliot_n]

Also, do note that there is a weekly pattern in the reported cases, which indicates the effects of weekends and weekdays, to which the virus itself is not reacting.

Yes, weekend effect.

In spite of prolonged lockdowns, both the US and the UK have failed to reduce the daily number of Covid cases. Compare with France, Italy, Spain etc - all have seen significant falls.

[kers]

Surprisingly, the Worldometer C19 stats  show significant decline both for USA and Western Europe in the last few days, especially for today.

They are two/three weeks behind the start of infection...
and show the result of social distance measures.

[Robert Roaldi]

Yes, weekend effect.

In spite of prolonged lockdowns, both the US and the UK have failed to reduce the daily number of Covid cases. Compare with France, Italy, Spain etc - all have seen significant falls.

Back up to 2300+ deaths for the USA today. It would be nice if the Worldometer graphs showed 7-day averages. Daily numbers don't always illuminate things.

[LesPalenik]

Back up to 2300+ deaths for the USA today. It would be nice if the Worldometer graphs showed 7-day averages. Daily numbers don't always illuminate things.

Assuming that today's jump back to the previous levels includes some delayed reporting from the previous days that were somewhat lower, then it looks like fewer infections and deaths in the last week than in the previous weeks. Of course, that could change again.

Yes, the weekly totals would be more telling than the daily snapshots.

[Paulo Bizarro]

Back up to 2300+ deaths for the USA today. It would be nice if the Worldometer graphs showed 7-day averages. Daily numbers don't always illuminate things.

As per yesterday. This is froma Portuguese newspaper that has daily updates on several plots, including 7 days average. All countries reported are falling down, except the USA - curve on the top. Seems they are in for a long plateau... with the number of deaths keeping the same pace.

[kers]

all countries in your graph , but try Russia, Brazil...
People there and in other less organized countries have not much to hold on to...
and there stats are not reliable .

[Robert Roaldi]

Some indications are emerging that presence of Covid-19 may predate the Wuhan outbreak as new research shows, https://thehill.com/homenews/496293-new-discoveries-shift-coronavirus-timeline-by-months. It's fascinating watching all the science unfold.

[armand]

Some indications are emerging that presence of Covid-19 may predate the Wuhan outbreak as new research shows, https://thehill.com/homenews/496293-new-discoveries-shift-coronavirus-timeline-by-months. It's fascinating watching all the science unfold.

Yes, until we know all the facts, as much as possible, we can't really say exactly how it happened. But that's the nice thing about science, you don't stop and keep trying and keep digging until you get closer.

[Chris Kern]

The New York Times published an interesting piece today by two Berlin-based reporters describing how Germany is cautiously relaxing its federal restrictions on business and social activity, with the implementation details being left largely to the states―a stratified regional model that has been proposed by President Trump, Governor Andrew Cuomo of New York state, and other prominent U.S. policy-makers of both major political parties―although here the legal authority resides with the individual states since the federal government is not constitutionally empowered to issue mandatory national restrictions.

Germany’s progress demonstrated that a combination of cautious, science-led political leadership and a regime of widespread testing, tracing and social distancing could allow countries to manage a controlled reopening. . . .

Germany shut down early and has been systematically testing its way back to some semblance of normality. That is not to say that life with the virus will look anything like before.

Face masks, already mandatory in shops and public transport across Germany, are fast becoming the new normal, seen everywhere from street protests to shop-window mannequins.

Socializing, even at restaurants and bars now allowed to reopen, will be limited to two households, six feet apart.

But with those limitations in place, [Chancellor Angela] Merkel on Wednesday restored many freedoms shelved for the best part of two months.

All shops will be allowed to reopen. Restaurants and hotels can resume in time for two long holiday weekends at the end of May.

All school children will see a classroom again before the summer holidays. Day care centers will start taking children next week, focusing on families most in need. Residents in nursing and care homes can receive visits from one person. . . .

Even Germany risks a second wave of infections, experts warn. The virus has a two-week incubation period and can be transmitted by asymptomatic people, making monitoring difficult.

“When you loosen measures, the problem is that you only see the effect in two weeks,” said Thomas Hotz, a mathematician who has been modeling the reproduction number of the virus. “And when you do it too quickly then you could see the virus reproducing too quickly.”

Germany's R0 factor (the infection reproduction number) is currently 0.7, German hospitals have significant spare capacity, the country already has put in place a robust system of contact-tracing, and the population appears to be abiding by "social distancing" rules―all factors which no doubt led the Merkel government to conclude it was now feasible to give the states some latitude to allow their respective populations to move about more freely.

[John Camp]

Surprisingly, the Worldometer C19 stats  show significant decline both for USA and Western Europe in the last few days, especially for today.

The decline in the US is because of the sharp decline in New York. When New York is taken out of the numbers, the US is still showing sharp increases in the numbers of deaths and infections. There have been a number of illustrations of this in the NYT or the WAPO.