COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS

[hogloff]

The New York Times published a well-researched piece today today comparing the number of excess deaths in various cities and regions during the COVID-19 pandemic with those during other disasters in the last 100 years.

For example, New York City, densely-populated and the busiest North American nexus for air travel from Europe, has so far experienced 5.8 times its baseline number of deaths during the current pandemic, compared to 1.05 times during a bad influenza season.  The graphic attached below represents a small extract of the results of the Times' survey, which was compiled from data provided by various countries, cities, and academic institutions; the entire article, accessible at the link in the first paragraph of this post, provides much more detail.

Definitely shows how much more dangerous the Covid-19 virus is compared with the seasonal flu. Just imagine what those numbers would look like if lockdown measures were not taken.

[Alan Klein]

The New York Times published a well-researched piece today today comparing the number of excess deaths in various cities and regions during the COVID-19 pandemic with those during other disasters in the last 100 years.

For example, New York City, densely-populated and the busiest North American nexus for air travel from Europe, has so far experienced 5.8 times its baseline number of deaths during the current pandemic, compared to 1.05 times during a bad influenza season.  The graphic attached below represents a small extract of the results of the Times' survey, which was compiled from data provided by various countries, cities, and academic institutions; the entire article, accessible at the link in the first paragraph of this post, provides much more detail.

As a New Yorker and now living in New Jersey an hour away fro NYC, I'm of course concerned about the higher rate of infection and death in these areas.  However, looking at only New York CIty distorts the fact that in the rest of the country it is not it as bad.  NYC was the nexus of the Covid 19 disease in America.  So the 5.8x for NYC compared to the 7.3 1918 Spanish Flu rate in Philadelphia seems to make Covid 19 almost as bad as the worst infectious disease in history after the Black Plague.  That's a distortion of the damage.

But when you look at the figures for the whole country, about 28% of the population of 105 million Americans became infected with the 1918 Spanish flu, and 500,000 to 850,000 died (0.48 to 0.81 percent of the population). That's at least 5x as many deaths as Covid 19, or over 15x the rate based on population.  We should look at it in that context as well to draw more accurate conclusions about the comparative effects.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Around_the_globe

[Alan Klein]

Definitely shows how much more dangerous the Covid-19 virus is compared with the seasonal flu. Just imagine what those numbers would look like if lockdown measures were not taken.

See my last post how statistics can distort the truth.  You have to look at the figures on a country-wide basis.  In 2017-2018 season, approximately 80,000 Americans died fom seasonal flu.  It was a particularly bad year.  Usually the figures are 12000 to 56000. Regardless, you have to look at figures overall to get more meaningful appraisals.

[hogloff]

As a New Yorker and now living in New Jersey an hour away fro NYC, I'm of course concerned about the higher rate of infection and death in these areas.  However, looking at only New York CIty distorts the fact that in the rest of the country it is not it as bad.  NYC was the nexus of the Covid 19 disease in America.  So the 5.8x for NYC compared to the 7.3 1918 Spanish Flu rate in Philadelphia seems to make Covid 19 almost as bad as the worst infectious disease in history after the Black Plague.  That's a distortion of the damage.

But when you look at the figures for the whole country, about 28% of the population of 105 million Americans became infected with the 1918 Spanish flu, and 500,000 to 850,000 died (0.48 to 0.81 percent of the population). That's at least 5x as many deaths as Covid 19, or over 15x the rate based on population.  We should look at it in that context as well to draw more accurate conclusions about the comparative effects.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Around_the_globe

But surely the lockdown for the Covid-19 virus was much more extensive than the Spanish Flu and surely the medical system is much more capable today than 100 years ago.

[hogloff]

See my last post how statistics can distort the truth.  You have to look at the figures on a country-wide basis.  In 2017-2018 season, approximately 80,000 Americans died fom seasonal flu.  It was a particularly bad year.  Usually the figures are 12000 to 56000. Regardless, you have to look at figures overall to get more meaningful appraisals.

Those flu deaths are estimates by the CDC which many doctors dispute. There was an article by a doctor that conducted a survey amongst doctors throughout the USA and the majority of those doctors indicated zero patients dieing from the seasonal flu. Care homes do not have any lockdowns during the seasonal flu...yet I never heard of mass deaths in any care homes during the flu season. I've previously indicated that I have been involved with long term care homes for the last 5 years and don't recall any abnormal deaths during flu season. I discussed this with the manager of one of these long term homes and she indicated that the flu season does not really cause anymore deaths.

So there just is no real evidence that the seasonal flu deaths are as high as you indicate. There is no actual formal tallies of flu deaths so all we have is "expert" estimates and we all know how you feel about experts. Or maybe the experts are right when they back up your agendas.

[LesPalenik]

See my last post how statistics can distort the truth.  You have to look at the figures on a country-wide basis.  In 2017-2018 season, approximately 80,000 Americans died fom seasonal flu.  It was a particularly bad year.  Usually the figures are 12000 to 56000. Regardless, you have to look at figures overall to get more meaningful appraisals.

I would speculate that the lockdown reduced also number of flu deaths. OTOH, there was an increase of other deaths, caused indirectly by the pandemic and also by closing of medical offices, so the patients could not be treated and helped in the same way as in the previous years.

[William Walker]

See my last post how statistics can distort the truth.  You have to look at the figures on a country-wide basis.  In 2017-2018 season, approximately 80,000 Americans died fom seasonal flu.  It was a particularly bad year.  Usually the figures are 12000 to 56000. Regardless, you have to look at figures overall to get more meaningful appraisals.

Alan, can I respectfully suggest that you take your own advice?

The final figures for the 1918 Flu are in - of that we can be certain.
The final figures for the 2017-2018 flu are in and will not change.

The Covid-19 figures are not in yet - in fact, we might not be anywhere near the end, we might not even be in the middle of it. This has only gone on for nearly four months.

Yet, you continue to keep looking at the Covid figures "overall" while each day they keep getting worse with another 8 months to go, can't you see that?

[faberryman]

Yet, you continue to keep looking at the Covid figures "overall" while each day they keep getting worse with another 8 months to go, can't you see that?

You also have to factor in that we didn't have hydroxychloroquine for the Spanish flu. That would have been a game-changer.

[Alan Klein]

Those flu deaths are estimates by the CDC which many doctors dispute. There was an article by a doctor that conducted a survey amongst doctors throughout the USA and the majority of those doctors indicated zero patients dieing from the seasonal flu. Care homes do not have any lockdowns during the seasonal flu...yet I never heard of mass deaths in any care homes during the flu season. I've previously indicated that I have been involved with long term care homes for the last 5 years and don't recall any abnormal deaths during flu season. I discussed this with the manager of one of these long term homes and she indicated that the flu season does not really cause anymore deaths.

So there just is no real evidence that the seasonal flu deaths are as high as you indicate. There is no actual formal tallies of flu deaths so all we have is "expert" estimates and we all know how you feel about experts. Or maybe the experts are right when they back up your agendas.

So we should believe you and your manager rather than the CDC?  So all the CDC research and statistics of cases and deaths due to the seasonal flu over the last ten years are bogus?  Let's assume you're right.  So then why should we believe anything that Dr. Fauci and his cronies at the CDC are telling us about Covid 19?  If the CDC can continue come up with phony statistics year after year for ten years, why should we even trust them to boil a pot of water? 
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

[faberryman]

So we should believe you and your manager rather than the CDC?  So all the CDC research and statistics of cases and deaths due to the seasonal flu over the last ten years are bogus?  Let's assume you're right.  So then why should we believe anything that Dr. Fauci and his cronies at the CDC are telling us about Covid 19?  If the CDC can continue come up with phony statistics year after year for ten years, why should we even trust them to boil a pot of water?

You are right. There is no difference between estimates and phony statistics. And, like you, the CDC is the last place I would go for information on boiling a pot of water.

[Alan Klein]

What's interesting, I went through the yearly seasonal flu rates.  Just like COvid 19, the highest rate of deaths were for those over 65 years old.  So we knew that before Covid 19 outbreak.  Yet, we didn't do anything to protect the most vulnerable or tell people they could expect that would be the age group where most deaths would occur.  Also, did anyone realize this fact when they shut down the entire world's economies?  I'm not saying we should not have made restrictions.  But did anyone ever review this fact as part of their decision making?  Why weren't we told by the CDC?

Here's the 2017-2018 season figures.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2016-2017.html

[hogloff]

So we should believe you and your manager rather than the CDC?  So all the CDC research and statistics of cases and deaths due to the seasonal flu over the last ten years are bogus?  Let's assume you're right.  So then why should we believe anything that Dr. Fauci and his cronies at the CDC are telling us about Covid 19?  If the CDC can continue come up with phony statistics year after year for ten years, why should we even trust them to boil a pot of water? 
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.html

CDC flu deaths are estimates...not actual counts and there are numerous articles that suggest these estimates are way over estimated. There is at least an effort to tally Covid deaths...even so I believe these tallies are low.

Alan, have you heard of long term care homes being overrun by the flu causing hundreds of deaths in them? If not, ask yourself why...after all it's these same patients in these care homes that died by the thousands from Covid...yet don't seem to be affected by the flu. How can that be if 80,000 people died from the flu.

And yes, I believe the data I've seen in the last 5 years along with the manager of one of these care homes...the flu death rate is no where near what the CDC estimates.

[hogloff]

What's interesting, I went through the yearly seasonal flu rates.  Just like COvid 19, the highest rate of deaths were for those over 65 years old.  So we knew that before Covid 19 outbreak.  Yet, we didn't do anything to protect the most vulnerable or tell people they could expect that would be the age group where most deaths would occur.  Also, did anyone realize this fact when they shut down the entire world's economies?  I'm not saying we should not have made restrictions.  But did anyone ever review this fact as part of their decision making?  Why weren't we told by the CDC?

Here's the 2017-2018 season figures.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2016-2017.html

We knew from day one the most vulnerable were the elderly...it's a respiratory disease and the elderly are the most susceptible to respiratory problems. One of the first outbreaks in Seattle was at a nursing home in February. Now why they didn't lock these nursing homes down could be anyone's guess...maybe they thought "it will magically go away".

[elliot_n]

In 2017-2018 season, approximately 80,000 Americans died fom seasonal flu.  It was a particularly bad year.

Source?

[kers]

As a New Yorker and now living in New Jersey an hour away fro NYC, I'm of course concerned about the higher rate of infection and death in these areas.  However, looking at only New York CIty distorts the fact that in the rest of the country it is not it as bad.  NYC was the nexus of the Covid 19 disease in America.  So the 5.8x for NYC compared to the 7.3 1918 Spanish Flu rate in Philadelphia seems to make Covid 19 almost as bad as the worst infectious disease in history after the Black Plague.  That's a distortion of the damage.

But when you look at the figures for the whole country, about 28% of the population of 105 million Americans became infected with the 1918 Spanish flu, and 500,000 to 850,000 died (0.48 to 0.81 percent of the population). That's at least 5x as many deaths as Covid 19, or over 15x the rate based on population.  We should look at it in that context as well to draw more accurate conclusions about the comparative effects.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Spanish_flu#Around_the_globe

So things can be even worse...how fortunate... anyway...
Covid 19 still kills 1000 US citizen a day and infects more than 20.000...   numbers are not really going down in the whole of the US
We cannot look back at it yet.

[faberryman]

Source?

The CDC estimate of influenza deaths for 2017-18 is 61,000, not 80,000. The way you get 80,000 is you go to the chart, select the year with the highest number of estimated deaths, add 30%, and round up.

[hogloff]

What's interesting, I went through the yearly seasonal flu rates.  Just like COvid 19, the highest rate of deaths were for those over 65 years old.  So we knew that before Covid 19 outbreak.  Yet, we didn't do anything to protect the most vulnerable or tell people they could expect that would be the age group where most deaths would occur.  Also, did anyone realize this fact when they shut down the entire world's economies?  I'm not saying we should not have made restrictions.  But did anyone ever review this fact as part of their decision making?  Why weren't we told by the CDC?

Here's the 2017-2018 season figures.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2016-2017.html

Here's an article from Scietific America that discusses death tallies from the yearly flu.

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths-to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/

"The 25,000 to 69,000 numbers that Trump cited do not represent counted flu deaths per year; they are estimates that the CDC produces by multiplying the number of flu death counts reported by various coefficients produced through complicated algorithms. These coefficients are based on assumptions of how many cases, hospitalizations, and deaths they believe went unreported. In the last six flu seasons, the CDC’s reported number of actual confirmed flu deaths—that is, counting flu deaths the way we are currently counting deaths from the coronavirus—has ranged from 3,448 to 15,620, which far lower than the numbers commonly repeated by public officials and even public health experts."

[Alan Klein]

CDC flu deaths are estimates...not actual counts and there are numerous articles that suggest these estimates are way over estimated. There is at least an effort to tally Covid deaths...even so I believe these tallies are low.

Alan, have you heard of long term care homes being overrun by the flu causing hundreds of deaths in them? If not, ask yourself why...after all it's these same patients in these care homes that died by the thousands from Covid...yet don't seem to be affected by the flu. How can that be if 80,000 people died from the flu.

And yes, I believe the data I've seen in the last 5 years along with the manager of one of these care homes...the flu death rate is no where near what the CDC estimates.

Like I said, if CDC has been getting it wrong for ten years, then why should we trust any recommendations they give about Covid 19?  I'd rather trust you and your manager.

[Alan Klein]

We knew from day one the most vulnerable were the elderly...it's a respiratory disease and the elderly are the most susceptible to respiratory problems. One of the first outbreaks in Seattle was at a nursing home in February. Now why they didn't lock these nursing homes down could be anyone's guess...maybe they thought "it will magically go away".

Maybe Gov Cuomo knows the answer to your question.

[Alan Klein]

Source?

The source of the 80,000 dead was a periodical.  I forgot to post it.  But I see now that the CDC estimated 61,000 which I'd feel would be more accurate.  Here are the CDC figures https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/past-seasons.htmlagain for the last ten years.