The point of my post was that in California, the death rate went down 2/3rds during June and July compared to March through May. So we're getting better at treating it. (Also older people are being protected better from getting it in the first place.)
When you say "death rate" I believe you are referring to a ratio, where the numerator is the number of deaths in a particular time period, and the denominator is the number of new cases in that same time period. This is a peculiar statistic, since the populations in the numerator and denominator are completely different. One way this ratio could get lower over time is for more people to be tested, resulting in a larger denominator, without affecting the numerator. Beware of drawing conclusions about mortality from such a peculiar statistic.
"Death rate" is vague. The article distinguished "case-fatality rate" and "mortality-rate". It seems like we should look at both rates since they provide you with different information. I tend to look at the number, not the rate, of deaths. It sure seems like a lot of people are dying. What is it? 165,000 or so with another 1,000 dying every day? One model predicted 300,000 by December. And now we are opening schools for in-person instruction. There will be deaths among children, but the greater number will be among teachers and staff.
Maybe better now than later? It may turn out that other countries are going to just get hit later once they start opening up more. You can't hide forever.
I'm note sure why a death now would be "better" than a death later. I haven't done an exhaustive analysis, but I have the impression that other countries are already more open than we are, and they don't appear to be reporting a lot of cases or deaths. I don't know about hiding, but you can certainly mitigate you risks for a long time.
I believe Australia and New Zealand shut down again because of some new cases. I think parts of Germany shut down too. How many times are they going to keep doing that? If the virus doesn't go away on its on, eventually they're going to stay open and the virus will go through the community like what's happening in the USA. Pay now or pay later. Meanwhile the economy is going no where. The virus affects health and the economy. People have to eat as well as stay healthy. Eating helps people stay alive and healthy too.
I agree. Statistics can distort supposed truths depending on how you look at them. One thing that was reported about the testing in California, was that the rate for infection is around 21%. So it seems to have been moving through the community more than before when it was around 10%.
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-53741091https://www.bbc.com/news/world-australia-53718184https://www.bbc.com/news/health-53579731above what i could quickly find. Bart will have better info.
Eating out was a treat we had a few times a year for special occasions when i was growing up in the 60's. Not a near daily activity like so many with means practiced until March. We may be returning to the old ways at least partially. If you can make it at home, the cost is maybe a third to half of eating out.
Thanks for providing the links. The first one regarding NZ had the following info: "Auckland residents will be asked to stay at home, large gatherings will be banned, non-essential businesses will be shut, and some social-distancing restrictions will be reintroduced in the rest of the country."
Yes, New Zealand had four new cases, its first in 102 days. No new deaths. The lockdown was for three days.
Are they going to keep doing that? What about schools? Were they shut down too?
So I was in the store today to return something and took a chance. Everyone was masked up and separated by 6 feet. Notice the signs on the floor. People here in New Jersey seem to be doing their part.
Thanks for providing the links. The first one regarding NZ had the following info: "Auckland residents will be asked to stay at home, large gatherings will be banned, non-essential businesses will be shut, and some social-distancing restrictions will be reintroduced in the rest of the country."The point in my previous post was that countries can't keep shutting down their economies because of a few cases. In this case it was all members of a single family. At some point, governments are going to just leave it alone, shut down nothing, tell people to be careful, and get on with life. Then the breakouts will be worse like in America. Maybe the US is just getting to that point quicker, like Sweden. Delaying just screws up the economy more. Of course, the hope is that we'll find a vaccine or that the virus will dissipate on it's on. In that case, maybe holding off longer makes sense. But we really don't know for sure which is the best way. Current statistics and appearances could be fooling us.
