COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS

[Alan Goldhammer]

"A constellation of emerging data supports this idea, including COVID-19 outcomes in men with prostate cancer and lab studies of how androgens regulate key genes. And preliminary observations from Spain suggest that a disproportionate number of men with male pattern baldness—which is linked to a powerful androgen—end up in hospitals with COVID-19"

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/06/why-coronavirus-hits-men-harder-sex-hormones-offer-clues

This was noticed about eight weeks ago. There are clinical trials with female sex hormones going on right now to see if they have an impact on disease progression in men.

[Alan Klein]

I apologise in advance if this finding has already been discussed! It is certainly the first I have heard of it.

"Coronavirus spread by people with no symptoms 'appears to be rare,' WHO official says"/u]

Surely this would be encouraging news?

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/08/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread-who-bn/index.html

So which experts should we believe now?

[faberryman]

So which experts should we believe now?

Must...resist...

[Alan Klein]

Must...resist...

I'm not resisting anything.  I'm staying locked up. 

The reason I posted the article is that it appears from the WHO that asymptomatic infected people don't infect others.  If that's true, then it goes against everything we've be hearing from experts that asymptomatic people are big spreaders of the disease.  So which expert is right?

For the last few days, we've been discussing how the poor layman doesn't know who to believe.  This is another example.  First we don't need masks.  Then we need masks.  First we should be concerned about asymptomatic people.  Now, well, it may not be important.  What are regular people suppose to thnk and do?  What are policy makers suppose to do?  Everyone is guessing. Meanwhile the economies of the world are shut down. Companies are going bankrupt.  Millions of people aren't making a living.

[faberryman]

I'm not resisting anything.  I'm staying locked up. 

The reason I posted the article is that it appears from the WHO that asymptomatic infected people don't infect others.  If that's true, then it goes against everything we've be hearing from experts that asymptomatic people are big spreaders of the disease.  So which expert is right?

For the last few days, we've been discussing how the poor layman doesn't know who to believe.  This is another example.  First we don't need masks.  Then we need masks.  First we should be concerned about asymptomatic people.  Now , well, it may not be important.  What are regular people suppose to thnk and do?  What are policy makers suppose to do?  Everyone is guessing. Meanwhile the economies of the world are shut down. COmpanies are going bankrupt.  Millions of people aren;t making a living.

Must...resist...

[hogloff]

Must...resist...

Yes, like a record skipping over and over.

[Alan Goldhammer]

So which experts should we believe now?

Did you read the article? 

Maria Van Kerkhove, head of the WHO’s emerging disease and zoonosis unit, didn’t entirely dismiss the idea that people without symptoms can spread the virus. But she did say contact tracing research from around the world suggests that it’s much rarer than previously thought.  “We have a number of reports from countries who are doing very detailed contact tracing,” Kerkhove said. “They’re following asymptomatic cases. They’re following contacts. And they’re not finding secondary transmission onward. It’s very rare.”

Sometimes you have to go beyond the headlines to find out what is going on.

[Alan Klein]

Did you read the article? 

Maria Van Kerkhove, head of the WHO’s emerging disease and zoonosis unit, didn’t entirely dismiss the idea that people without symptoms can spread the virus. But she did say contact tracing research from around the world suggests that it’s much rarer than previously thought.  “We have a number of reports from countries who are doing very detailed contact tracing,” Kerkhove said. “They’re following asymptomatic cases. They’re following contacts. And they’re not finding secondary transmission onward. It’s very rare.”

Sometimes you have to go beyond the headlines to find out what is going on.

You're an expert.  You go beyond the headlines. The average person reads the headline and that's it.  This only confirms my point.  The public is confused because the news and advice are confusing and often contradictory.  Arguing after the fact that average people should be scientists and read between the lines just proves that point.  Also, there are cable videos that also repeated this new theory.  There are no explanations to read that clarify anything.  The poor public can't make heads or tails out of any of this.  They're operating with fear on one side and contempt on the other.  They're watching their jobs go down the drain and the ability to feed their families as ignorant policy makers use so-called scientific theories that appear to be mistaken.

[Chris Kern]

Must...resist...

Yes, please do―at least in this thread, which has been at least occasionally useful in providing information about the coronavirus.  If the urge to challenge an outbreak of crazytalk becomes overwhelming (and, trust me, I quite understand why it may), my suggestion to all who might otherwise succumb to it would be to quote the portion of the post you want to challenge, but then move over to the "playpen" thread to actually post your response.  That way we can confine the bilateral bickering and the inevitably growing cloud of confusion to a part of the forum that was explicitly intended to isolate it.

[hogloff]

You're an expert.  You go beyond the headlines. The average person reads the headline and that's it.  This only confirms my point.  The public is confused because the news and advice are confusing and often contradictory.  Arguing after the fact that average people should be scientists and read between the lines just proves that point.  Also, there are cable videos that also repeated this new theory.  There are no explanations to read that clarify anything.  The poor public can't make heads or tails out of any of this.  They're operating with fear on one side and contempt on the other.  They're watching their jobs go down the drain and the ability to feed their families as ignorant policy makers use so-called scientific theories that appear to be mistaken.

Now is that an issue with the scientific community or maybe the media that likes to grab hold of a headline and sensationalize it. Maybe stop reading all the garbage the media or internet is feeding you.

[Manoli]

NYT: 12 minutes ago ..

The W.H.O. walked back an earlier assertion that asymptomatic transmission is ‘very rare.’

A top expert at the World Health Organization on Tuesday walked back her earlier assertion that transmission of the coronavirus by people who do not have symptoms is “very rare.” 

Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, who made the original comment at a W.H.O. briefing on Monday, said that it was based on just two or three studies and that it was a “misunderstanding” to say asymptomatic transmission is rare globally.

“I was just responding to a question, I wasn’t stating a policy of W.H.O. or anything like that,” she said.

Dr. Van Kerkhove said that the estimates of transmission from people without symptoms come primarily from models, which may not provide an accurate representation. “That’s a big open question, and that remains an open question,” she said.

[Alan Klein]

Yes, please do―at least in this thread, which has been at least occasionally useful in providing information about the coronavirus.  If the urge to challenge an outbreak of crazytalk becomes overwhelming (and, trust me, I quite understand why it may), my suggestion to all who might otherwise succumb to it would be to quote the portion of the post you want to challenge, but then move over to the "playpen" thread to actually post your response.  That way we can confine the bilateral bickering and the inevitably growing cloud of confusion to a part of the forum that was explicitly intended to isolate it.

If the scientific information provided here is false or disputable, it should be answered here, not in another thread.   Otherwise this thread devolves into a discussion where only one side of the "truth" is allowed to speak.  The limitation is on political discussions. Scientific and economic discussions affected by COvid 19 are allowed.

[Alan Klein]

NYT: 12 minutes ago ..

The W.H.O. walked back an earlier assertion that asymptomatic transmission is ‘very rare.’

A top expert at the World Health Organization on Tuesday walked back her earlier assertion that transmission of the coronavirus by people who do not have symptoms is “very rare.” 

Dr. Maria Van Kerkhove, who made the original comment at a W.H.O. briefing on Monday, said that it was based on just two or three studies and that it was a “misunderstanding” to say asymptomatic transmission is rare globally.

“I was just responding to a question, I wasn’t stating a policy of W.H.O. or anything like that,” she said.

Dr. Van Kerkhove said that the estimates of transmission from people without symptoms come primarily from models, which may not provide an accurate representation. “That’s a big open question, and that remains an open question,” she said.

Coincidentally, my wife, who knew nothing about the discussion we were having in the forum, confirmed my point to me a few minutes ago when she saw the WHO representation and retractions on TV, "How do they expect us to know what to do if they keep changing their minds?" 

[BernardLanguillier]

Firstly, I never said it was an informed poll.  It is a poll of epidemiologist who study disease spread and control for a living.  You can make of that what you will.  There is a published study today that says the US avoided 60 million cases of COVID-19 because of the lockdown.  Let's take my estimate of the Case Rate Mortality of 0.4%.  this means that the US did not see an extra 240,000 deaths.  You might think that is a bad trade off and I might think it is a good one.

That's consistent with other studies I have read about in Europe, some claiming that the lock down contributed to reduce the number of casualties by a factor up to 4.

If you compare Sweden and Denmark the ratio is higher than 3.

At the same time the economic impact is nearly identical between these 2 countries, which supports the theory the economic impact results from the pandemic itself and not of the lockdown.

Cheers,
Bernard

[LesPalenik]

Coincidentally, my wife, who knew nothing about the discussion we were having in the forum, confirmed my point to me a few minutes ago when she saw the WHO representation and retractions on TV, "How do they expect us to know what to do if they keep changing their minds?"

Only the serious and dedicated followers of the news notice the discrepancies. The remaining readers remember only the latest announcements and tweets.

[Manoli]

Interactive Coronavirus (Covid-19) Travel Regulations Map on the IATA website
Detailed country by country :
https://www.iatatravelcentre.com/international-travel-document-news/1580226297.htm

[Alan Klein]

Only the serious and dedicated followers of the news notice the discrepancies. The remaining readers remember only the latest announcements and tweets.

But policy makers follow the news and base important decisions that affect the everyday actions of their communities including the shutdown and opening of economic activities.  Regular people including those who don't even read anything get their beliefs from listening to their leaders.

[Alan Klein]

Greece's main indistry is tourism.  That may account for the draconian fine and shutdown of the restaurant.  No one's going to vacation there if they think it's unsafe.

[Robert Roaldi]

You're an expert.  You go beyond the headlines.

There is no escape from this, if you want a thorough understanding you have to go beyond the headlines. If the subject is beyond your expertise you have to enlist the help of "experts". If you persist in believing that all "experts" are suspect, you will subject yourself to a lot of unresolvable stress. As a start, my first advice is to stop reading every bit of news and speculation in scientific journals. It is ongoing research. Stop looking for the magic bullet, there isn't one.

There are early indications that cases, and maybe later deaths, may start to increase again after "re-opening". This may be because people are behaving as if it's all over and may be disregarding distancing guidelines. From the virus's point of view, things are not much different than they were 3 months ago. There is no vaccine yet, there is no herd immunity, there is a just a hope that with summer weather people won't be cooped up indoors as much, which may have an effect but it's foolish to hope that it's a game changer. There is no reason to think that.

[Chris Kern]

The New York Times published a well-researched piece today today comparing the number of excess deaths in various cities and regions during the COVID-19 pandemic with those during other disasters in the last 100 years.

For example, New York City, densely-populated and the busiest North American nexus for air travel from Europe, has so far experienced 5.8 times its baseline number of deaths during the current pandemic, compared to 1.05 times during a bad influenza season.  The graphic attached below represents a small extract of the results of the Times' survey, which was compiled from data provided by various countries, cities, and academic institutions; the entire article, accessible at the link in the first paragraph of this post, provides much more detail.