COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS

[Alan Klein]

The CDC estimate of influenza deaths for 2017-18 is 61,000, not 80,000. The way you get 80,000 is you go to the chart, select the year with the highest number of estimated deaths, add 30%, and round up.

Here's how the CDC figures influenza statistics.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm

[Alan Klein]

Here's an article from Scietific America that discusses death tallies from the yearly flu.

https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/observations/comparing-covid-19-deaths-to-flu-deaths-is-like-comparing-apples-to-oranges/

"The 25,000 to 69,000 numbers that Trump cited do not represent counted flu deaths per year; they are estimates that the CDC produces by multiplying the number of flu death counts reported by various coefficients produced through complicated algorithms. These coefficients are based on assumptions of how many cases, hospitalizations, and deaths they believe went unreported. In the last six flu seasons, the CDC’s reported number of actual confirmed flu deaths—that is, counting flu deaths the way we are currently counting deaths from the coronavirus—has ranged from 3,448 to 15,620, which far lower than the numbers commonly repeated by public officials and even public health experts."

So again, if the CDC is so wrong about seasonal flu, why should we trust them on Covid 19?  You can't have it both ways. You can't knock them on their flu work and then use them  to confirm your beliefs with their Covid work.

[faberryman]

Here's how the CDC figures influenza statistics.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/how-cdc-estimates.htm

Nice deflection but the link takes you to a textual description of how the CDC estimates annual influenza deaths. It doesn't corroborate the figure you posted of 80,000 for the year 2017-18. You just made that number up.

[Alan Klein]

Nice deflection but the link takes you to a textual description of how the CDC estimates annual influenza deaths. It doesn't corroborate the figure you posted of 80,000 for the year 2017-18. You just made that number up.

I don't lie. I'm surprised you would insult me like that.  I read the 80,000 deaths on another site. Here it is.  https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

In any case, I changed death count to 61,000 based on CDC's own studies which also include a range of 46,000 tom 95,000 for that year.  So the 80,000 falls into the CDC range as well.   See the chart I posted above.

[faberryman]

I don't lie. I'm surprised you would insult me like that.  I read the 80,000 deaths on another site. Here it is.  https://www.statnews.com/2018/09/26/cdc-us-flu-deaths-winter/

https://forum.luminous-landscape.com/index.php?topic=134416.msg1159869#msg1159869

[Alan Klein]

https://forum.luminous-landscape.com/index.php?topic=134416.msg1159869#msg1159869

What's your point?

[hogloff]

So again, if the CDC is so wrong about seasonal flu, why should we trust them on Covid 19?  You can't have it both ways. You can't knock them on their flu work and then use them  to confirm your beliefs with their Covid work.

The CDC number for seasonal flu is an estimate. The Covid-19 deaths are actual deaths. There lies the difference.

Tell me Alan, have you ever heard of a long term care home lockdown due to the seasonal flu? If 80,000 people died from the flu and the majority of them were 65+'in age...surely long term care homes would be run over...yet no mentions of major lock downs. Does that seem odd to you? How many friends or relatives did you know over the last 20 years that died from the flu? Any? Again, does that not seem odd to you?

[LesPalenik]

Tell me Alan, have you ever heard of a long term care home lockdown due to the seasonal flu? If 80,000 people died from the flu and the majority of them were 65+'in age...surely long term care homes would be run over...yet no mentions of major lock downs. Does that seem odd to you? How many friends or relatives did you know over the last 20 years that died from the flu? Any? Again, does that not seem odd to you?

Actually, I've seen quite a few lockdowns due to flu in the long-term care homes. They used to call them quarantines, and usually they lasted 3-4 weeks. 

[hogloff]

Actually, I've seen quite a few lockdowns due to flu in the long-term care homes. They used to call them quarantines, and usually they lasted 3-4 weeks.

Haven't seen a single lock down the last 5 years. Signage indicating to stay away if you are ill is the only thing I've seen.

[LesPalenik]

Lucky and healthy seniors in your area. In Toronto and some other areas of southern Ontario, it wasn't uncommon to hear of several such quarantines each winter. I didn't see the warning signs either, but heard it on the news or from friends who had relatives in the longterm care homes.

[Alan Klein]

The CDC number for seasonal flu is an estimate. The Covid-19 deaths are actual deaths. There lies the difference.

Tell me Alan, have you ever heard of a long term care home lockdown due to the seasonal flu? If 80,000 people died from the flu and the majority of them were 65+'in age...surely long term care homes would be run over...yet no mentions of major lock downs. Does that seem odd to you? How many friends or relatives did you know over the last 20 years that died from the flu? Any? Again, does that not seem odd to you?

I agree with you to a certain extent.  But it again raises the question.  If the CDC is so incompetent to provide silly flu statistics for ten years running, year after year after year, why should we trust them with anything else the say or do? 

[Alan Klein]

Haven't seen a single lock down the last 5 years. Signage indicating to stay away if you are ill is the only thing I've seen.

The link to the CDC I posted above explains how many old people in assisted living care facilities and nursing homes get sick with the flu.  They wind up in hospitals because they're having great difficulties breathing, or fever, or other issues caused by the flu and then die in the hospital of these causes.  The death certificates don't mention the flu but rather pneumonia, cardiovascular issues, etc. 

It seems that with Covid, its being tracked better. Also, flu I believe is spread out longer over about 6 months.  The bulk of hospitalizations I believe were only a couple of months with Covid.  Plus there were more people getting sick at one time in mainly one area (NY/NJ).  Look, I'm not the expert.  This is what the CDC says.  So either the regular flu killed more people than we noticed.  Or the CDC doesn't know what it's doing regarding their flu studies.  Either way isn't comforting.

[hogloff]

I agree with you to a certain extent.  But it again raises the question.  If the CDC is so incompetent to provide silly flu statistics for ten years running, year after year after year, why should we trust them with anything else the say or do?

They are upfront with their estimates for the flu deaths...not hiding anything. Other things the CDC are involved with are more direct and not estimates. You can't put everything into the same pot.

[hogloff]

The link to the CDC I posted above explains how many old people in assisted living care facilities and nursing homes get sick with the flu.  They wind up in hospitals because they're having great difficulties breathing, or fever, or other issues caused by the flu and then die in the hospital of these causes.  The death certificates don't mention the flu but rather pneumonia, cardiovascular issues, etc. 

It seems that with Covid, its being tracked better. Also, flu I believe is spread out longer over about 6 months.  The bulk of hospitalizations I believe were only a couple of months with Covid.  Plus there were more people getting sick at one time in mainly one area (NY/NJ).  Look, I'm not the expert.  This is what the CDC says.  So either the regular flu killed more people than we noticed.  Or the CDC doesn't know what it's doing regarding their flu studies.  Either way isn't comforting.

What comfort are you looking for from the CDC regarding flu death rates? I don't understand you.

[Jeremy Roussak]

The Covid-19 deaths are actual deaths.

That may or may not be so. Different countries report deaths in different ways. Some (the UK, for example) include deaths at home, that is, not in hospital or care home; others (France, for example) don't. Evidence for the cause of death can be scant to non-existent, and relaxation of the rules governing those who sign death certificates has allowed those with no medical qualifications at all to do it; yet once certified, the cause is virtually unchallengeable.

Take most figures with a large pinch of salt.

Jeremy

[BernardLanguillier]

That may or may not be so. Different countries report deaths in different ways. Some (the UK, for example) include deaths at home, that is, not in hospital or care home; others (France, for example) don't. Evidence for the cause of death can be scant to non-existent, and relaxation of the rules governing those who sign death certificates has allowed those with no medical qualifications at all to do it; yet once certified, the cause is virtually unchallengeable.

Take most figures with a large pinch of salt.

Jeremy

Very true. The most extreme example being my native Belgium that even counts deaths that are not proven to be covid19 related... those making up nearly 40% of the current count...

We are experts in country promotion!

We are convinced that being the most honnest will pay some day, that the world is going to follow us.

Cheers,
Bernard

[Alan Goldhammer]

That may or may not be so. Different countries report deaths in different ways. Some (the UK, for example) include deaths at home, that is, not in hospital or care home; others (France, for example) don't. Evidence for the cause of death can be scant to non-existent, and relaxation of the rules governing those who sign death certificates has allowed those with no medical qualifications at all to do it; yet once certified, the cause is virtually unchallengeable.

Part of the difficulty is that pathology departments are over burdened right now and autopsy specimens are backed up.  It took over two months to test samples in Santa Clara county in California and when they were tested, a death from unknown causes in early February was shown to have been COVID-19 related via viral testing.  Certainly hospital deaths associated with a positive viral test can reliable be related to COVID-19 infection if the associated symptoms are related.  My bottom line is the virus is here and we have to deal with it the best way possible.

Areas that have lax public health programs will continue to suffer.  Israel opened all the schools two weeks ago only to have to close a number of them the other day because of COVID-19 infections:  https://www.npr.org/sections/coronavirus-live-updates/2020/06/03/868507524/israel-orders-schools-to-close-when-covid-19-cases-are-discovered   I suspect that we will see the same thing happen over here this fall.

[Alan Klein]

So now I have another thing to worry about.  I'm A+.  Better to have O type blood.  Apparently blood type affects vulnerability and death rates.
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/coronavirus-news-23andme-finds-more-evidence-that-blood-type-plays-role-in-coronavirus-2244091?amp=1&akamai-rum=off

[Jeremy Roussak]

Part of the difficulty is that pathology departments are over burdened right now and autopsy specimens are backed up.

That may be the issue in the US and, if so, will permit retrospective correction of the numbers, up or down, on the assumption that whatever mechanism is eventually used to examine the specimens produces tolerably accurate results (which in vivo nasopharyngeal swabbing dismally fails to do).

It's not the case in the UK, however, where many of the certified deaths are no more than guesses by those with no ability to make even an educated guess, and where as far as I know no specimens have been taken from the individuals, ante- or post-mortem.

Jeremy

[John Camp]

Alan apparently wants a number from the CDC -- like, you know, 42,136 flu deaths. He won't get it. But the estimates are based on reasonable assessments of deaths, generally what are called "excess deaths" above the expected death rate minus what ever epidemic is being experienced. The Covid-19 deaths are "confirmed" in one way or another, and the "excess death rates" in the US have been reported for several different states and then reported in the newspapers (like the NY Times.) The excess death rates in the US areas sampled during the Covid-19 epidemic are generally in excess of the reported rate although in some states, (Montana is one, if I remember correctly) the low number of Covid-19 cases, combined with a lockdown that limited alcohol and driving, produced a death rate lower than expected.

Edit: here's one such story from WAPO.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/investigations/coronavirus-excess-deaths-may/