COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS

[faberryman]

I said I believe SOME might be caused by other factors.  Notice the word SOME.  I even underlined called it out in my post.

Someone MUST fill out a death cert for everyone who dies in the U.S.  Thats a Federal law. So are you suggestiing they are just making something up?

And my other point, which I made twice, is that the numbers on both sides...over  and under reporting... might be suspect and we should take them with a grain of salt.

Why should my mind be changed?

Let's concede the numbers won't be perfect. What do you think the margin of error will be?

[Alan Goldhammer]

A UK scientist at Oxford says her group is beginning human testing of a vaccine that she says she is 80% certain that it will work against the corona virus. I looked her up and she has quite the virus-developing history, and seems very much legit. The UK government has been talking about providing several tens of millions of dollars to begin manufacturing of the vaccine in advance of final trials, so that if it turns out to be safe and effective, it would be available immediately up the end of trials. She says if it works as she believes it will, it could become available in September. I would fly to the UK to get it.

It's quite doubtful that they will have the necessary safety data to approve a vaccine in that short a period.  This lab as others has a good proof of concept but they have to assess that neutralizing antibodies are produced in sufficient amount to give immunity.  The second issue is what level of safety is being assessed.  The statistical rule of three is in play here.  You need three times the number in the trial to get a good statistical sample.  If there is a rare adverse event of 1 in 10,000 (this has happened with vaccines) you need 30,000 people in the trial.  Now maybe it's decided that this is a true health emergency and a 5000 patient trial is OK.  This is really rolling the dice.  Some of these approaches that are being tried out right now have never been in humans before.  I think the Oxford group had a vaccine for a couple other viruses when I looked at the application for the trial.

I would note there is a German company that is also scaling things up with a goal of early approval.  Their approach is the same as the one Moderna, a US biotech company is using and who were the first to start a trial.

I might be wrong, but I think J&J has the best overall approach to vaccine design and the manufacturing capacity to produce at scale.  We'll see.

[Alan Goldhammer]

Having just read some of the posts on the last two pages, I think it's time to exit.  It appears that nobody is interested in science at this point but just hurling invectives at or across one another.  This defeats the aim of the thread.  I'll leave it to all of you to find your information elsewhere as I'm out of here and won't be providing further updates.

For the record, the real number to focus on is the mortality rate as a percentage of infected individuals.  the absolute number of deaths doesn't mean much if you don't have the denominator.  Until mass blood testing for antibodies is done, the latter number will never be known.  Even if deaths are being under counted it's still possible that SARS-CoV-2 is worse than the average seasonal flu but maybe in line with the 1957 Hong Kong epidemic.

Have fun talking among yourselves; I've got my daily newsletter on advances to get out.

[Alan Klein]

You think so? I've seen enough medical resources say otherwise...they are totally swamped with Covid deaths. These medical personnel surely must know.

If you want to think the actual numbers are less than being reported, I guess you can...but I don't live in your rose coloured glass world. My thinking is we have way more cases of Covid caused deaths than what is reported. I highly doubt a person that dies out of the hospital would be tested for Covid given we still have a lack of testing going on on live people.

And yes, there will be deaths as a result of Covid overrunning the medical system from things like heart attacks which Covid has indirectly contributed to which are also not counted.

Are the regular flu statistics right or wrong?  Or are there more deaths than being reported for the same reason?

In any case, here are the statistics for regular flu. CDC estimates that the burden of illness in the US during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza.

So far, Covid-19 statistics include: 532,092 cases   20,562 deaths to date.  Of course it's not over.  And certainly isolation has greatly lowered the number.

Arguing that there are some "hidden" deaths from Covid also means there are similar "hidden" deaths for regular flu.  So those numbers have to be increased as well to make statistical comparisons.  It seems like you're looking for additional deaths to justify the shutdown of the economy just in case the final count turns out lower than regular flu.  Because everyone's going to ask whether we over -reacted.  This is why Sweden's more relatively lackadaisical attitude is important. It will show whether they were right or not in taking a more laissez faire attitude.

[Chris Kern]

Having just read some of the posts on the last two pages, I think it's time to exit.

I'm just catching up this evening, myself.  I don't yet want to pull the metaphorical plug, but . . .

It appears that nobody is interested in science at this point but just hurling invectives at or across one another.  This defeats the aim of the thread.

Actually, I think "nobody" is an overstatement.  A few tendentious posters seem to be using this thread to pursue bilateral arguments―or provoke new ones.  Nothing wrong with disagreement, per se, but even to the extent that these pissing matches arguably can be squeezed into the stated theme of COVID-19 science and damage limitation, I don't see how the repetitive back-and-forth offers much information that might be interesting to third parties (i.e., the rest of us).

I'd like to see these heated disputes moved to the playpen thread or, even better, transferred to private message exchanges rather than inflicting them on everyone.

[Craig Lamson]

Let's concede the numbers won't be perfect. What do you think the margin of error will be?

I don’t think we will ever know for sure, but it would  not surprise me thats it’s + - 20%

[Craig Lamson]

I'm just catching up this evening, myself.  I don't yet want to pull the metaphorical plug, but . . .

Actually, I think "nobody" is an overstatement.  A few tendentious posters seem to be using this thread to pursue bilateral arguments―or provoke new ones.  Nothing wrong with disagreement, per se, but even to the extent that these pissing matches arguably can be squeezed into the stated theme of COVID-19 science and damage limitation, I don't see how the repetitive back-and-forth offers much information that might be interesting to third parties (i.e., the rest of us).

I'd like to see these heated disputes moved to the playpen thread or, even better, transferred to private message exchanges rather than inflicting them on everyone.

I’ll spare you guys and move on.  Sorry

[Alan Klein]

Seems like you just have a hard time being civil...enough of your whoosh bullshit.

Here are a couple statements that point towards under recording of actual Covid deaths.

"According to Levine, the number of deaths at home in New York City has grown 10-fold since the end of last week, even as hospitalizations for trauma and other emergencies have dropped to nearly nothing.

"Normally we have 20 to 25 deaths at home and now we are at 200 to 215,” Levine said, explaining that coronavirus would likely be the only way to explain such a spike.

Mayor Bill de Blasio said Tuesday he assumed the “vast majority” of the recent at-home deaths are coronavirus-related."


And in Italy

"In Nembro the almost deserted streets, the absent traffic, a strange silence is sometimes interrupted by the siren of an ambulance that carries with it the anxiety and worry that fill the hearts of all in these weeks. In Nembro every member of the community continuously receives news that he never wanted to hear, every day we lose people who were part of our lives and our community. Nembro, in the province of Bergamo, is the municipality most affected by Covid-19 in relation to the population. We do not know exactly how many people have been infected, but we know that the number of deaths officially attributed to Covid-19 is 31. We are two physicists: one who became an entrepreneur in the health sector, the other a mayor, in close contact with a very cohesive territory, where we know each other very well. We noticed that something in these official numbers did not come back right, and we decided - together - to check. We looked at the average of the deaths in the municipality of previous years, in the period January - March. Nembro should have had - under normal conditions - about 35 deaths. 158 people were registered dead this year by the municipal offices. That is 123 more than the average. Not 31 more, as it should have been according to the official numbers of the coronavirus epidemic."

Any actual data that backs up your view of the corrupt medical system forging Covid-19'deaths for money?

I didn't realize the Mayor DeBlasio was also the Medical Examiner.  First off, when someone dies in their home, someone knowledgeable has to write a death certificate.  There's also an investigation to make sure there was no foul play.  So why doesn't the mayor direct his Medical Examiner's office, which is among the world's finest,  to do an investigation instead of playing politics? 

In any case, how do you know that more people died at home because of Covid?  Maybe they died of other diseases at home because they weren't going to the hospital as they would have under normal circumstances before Covid.    Almost all elective surgery was cancelled by hospitals after about mid-March.   Many other treatment, tests, and procedures that people need were also put off.  So people stayed home and died.  Also, where I might want to go to a hospital under normal circumstances, I may have not gone so not to expose myself to the Covid virus that was being treated so extensively.  These and other reasons could account for the higher death rate at home, not necessarily Covid.  Until this is investigated, I wouldn't  trust
Mayor De Blasio who probably came up with this statistic while working out in the gym that he goes to every day. 

[armand]

This is the problem when everybody becomes an expert and starts questioning the actual experts, or not as much questioning but doubting because their google research told them otherwise.


Regarding the flu, the answer is quite simple: those deaths are spread over the entire US, over many months. With Covid there are many death concentrated over a short period of time, mostly localized to specific areas.

[chez]

Are the regular flu statistics right or wrong?  Or are there more deaths than being reported for the same reason?

In any case, here are the statistics for regular flu. CDC estimates that the burden of illness in the US during the 2018–2019 season included an estimated 35.5 million people getting sick with influenza, 16.5 million people going to a health care provider for their illness, 490,600 hospitalizations, and 34,200 deaths from influenza.

So far, Covid-19 statistics include: 532,092 cases   20,562 deaths to date.  Of course it's not over.  And certainly isolation has greatly lowered the number.

Arguing that there are some "hidden" deaths from Covid also means there are similar "hidden" deaths for regular flu.  So those numbers have to be increased as well to make statistical comparisons.  It seems like you're looking for additional deaths to justify the shutdown of the economy just in case the final count turns out lower than regular flu.  Because everyone's going to ask whether we over -reacted.  This is why Sweden's more relatively lackadaisical attitude is important. It will show whether they were right or not in taking a more laissez faire attitude.

I don't believe we are comparing to the regular flu...at least I'm not. I was just pointing out that the death toll is quite a bit different for Covid deaths than what is officially tallied. I've shown two cases in both New York and Italy where the at home death numbers have gone up dramatically during the Covid crisis and these deaths for the majority of them are not tallied as Covid-19 deaths.

You seem to be hung up on comparing to regular flu deaths. Who cares about that...with Covid it spreads more rapidly, it kills more efficiently and we have no vaccine or cure for it.

[chez]

In any case, how do you know that more people died at home because of Covid?  Maybe they died of other diseases at home because they weren't going to the hospital as they would have under normal circumstances before Covid.    Almost all elective surgery was cancelled by hospitals after about mid-March.   Many other treatment, tests, and procedures that people need were also put off.  So people stayed home and died.  Also, where I might want to go to a hospital under normal circumstances, I may have not gone so not to expose myself to the Covid virus that was being treated so extensively.  These and other reasons could account for the higher death rate at home, not necessarily Covid.  Until this is investigated, I wouldn't  trust
Mayor De Blasio who probably came up with this statistic while working out in the gym that he goes to every day.

Same issue if they died directly because of Covid infections or they died because the medical system was overrun dealing with Covid. One is a direct cause of death...the other an indirect that could have been prevented if Covid-19 was not around.

Didn't we discuss this many days ago when you insisted on knowing why we needed to isolate and bring the curve down...well it is exactly for the reason you stated above...unfortunately New York did not bring that curve down and we are seeing the results.

[Alan Klein]

This is the problem when everybody becomes an expert and starts questioning the actual experts, or not as much questioning but doubting because their google research told them otherwise.


Regarding the flu, the answer is quite simple: those deaths are spread over the entire US, over many months. With Covid there are many death concentrated over a short period of time, mostly localized to specific areas.

Until this is all over, you can't determine just how much damage and death policies have caused.  Sweden took a different route regarding isolation, much less stringent.  Wuhan is just starting back up economically after apparently shutting down the whole area.  Elsewhere in the world, in between measures were taken.  Let's compare results later to see the differences.  It will be very informative in facing similar pandemics in the future. 

[John Camp]

I didn't realize the Mayor DeBlasio was also the Medical Examiner.  First off, when someone dies in their home, someone knowledgeable has to write a death certificate.  There's also an investigation to make sure there was no foul play.  So why doesn't the mayor direct his Medical Examiner's office, which is among the world's finest,  to do an investigation instead of playing politics? 

In any case, how do you know that more people died at home because of Covid?  Maybe they died of other diseases at home because they weren't going to the hospital as they would have under normal circumstances before Covid.    Almost all elective surgery was cancelled by hospitals after about mid-March.   Many other treatment, tests, and procedures that people need were also put off.  So people stayed home and died.  Also, where I might want to go to a hospital under normal circumstances, I may have not gone so not to expose myself to the Covid virus that was being treated so extensively.  These and other reasons could account for the higher death rate at home, not necessarily Covid.  Until this is investigated, I wouldn't  trust
Mayor De Blasio who probably came up with this statistic while working out in the gym that he goes to every day.

You know, it's sometimes impossible to stay much more than Chez did in his post. The at-home deaths rise from 25 to 200, and what, with an epidemic raging outside, you think they're falling down the stairs? New York at this point is burying unclaimed bodies in trenches in the potter's field, you think that's because they're bored with regular burials? Try to take a break from your ideologically based truths, and take a look at the world as it is.

[Alan Klein]

You know, it's sometimes impossible to stay much more than Chez did in his post. The at-home deaths rise from 25 to 200, and what, with an epidemic raging outside, you think they're falling down the stairs? New York at this point is burying unclaimed bodies in trenches in the potter's field, you think that's because they're bored with regular burials? Try to take a break from your ideologically based truths, and take a look at the world as it is.

I can't respond to your political point or Jeremy will ban me for making a political point.  If you want me to respond, take your post to the other thread.

[Guillermo Luijk]

Based on this type of visualization: https://lnkd.in/eiHE3gG
I represented total deaths (X) vs daily deaths (Y) per million inhabitants for some countries caused by COVID-19, using log scale on both axis.
The plot has visual interpretations:
- Countries still in an early stage in controlling the disease (UK, US, Germany?) show a rectilinear trend since daily deaths grow at roughly the same rate as total deaths.
- Plots getting close to a vertical asymptote correspond to countries managing to control the spread and effects of the coronavirus (see China, S. Korea?, Italy or Spain)
- In the same ways plots reaching higher points in the X or Y axis correspond to countries with more daily and total deaths per inhabitant. Here Spain is unfortunately the current 'winner' on both axis.



Regards

[Alan Klein]

Same issue if they died directly because of Covid infections or they died because the medical system was overrun dealing with Covid. One is a direct cause of death...the other an indirect that could have been prevented if Covid-19 was not around.

Didn't we discuss this many days ago when you insisted on knowing why we needed to isolate and bring the curve down...well it is exactly for the reason you stated above...unfortunately New York did not bring that curve down and we are seeing the results.

You're assuming that the people died at home because they didn't get treatment at the hospital.  But they may have died at the hospital in any case.  This is from the following link posted elsewhere.  Until there's an examination of the actual causes assuming a couple of hundred dead per day at home from Covid is just speculation. I assume there are some.  But that might be an inflated number. 

"An enormous change is that emergency departments are almost empty of non-coronavirus cases. People don’t seem to be breaking their legs, having strokes or shooting one another as often as normal. That’s partly because fewer people are outdoors, but it also appears that some families prefer to have an aging parent die quietly at home rather than go to a hospital at this time."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/11/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-hospitals-bronx.html

[Alan Klein]

Based on this type of visualization: https://lnkd.in/eiHE3gG
I represented total deaths (X) vs daily deaths (Y) per million inhabitants for some countries caused by COVID-19, using log scale on both axis.
The plot has two visual interpretations:
- Plots getting close to a vertical asymptote correspond to countries managing to control the spread and effects of the coronavirus (see China, S. Korea?, Italy or Spain)
- In the same ways plots reaching higher points in the X or Y axis correspond to countries with more daily and total deaths per inhabitant. Here Spain is unfortunately the current 'winner'.



Regards

I'm sure your graphs are accurate based on the figures you received.  But frankly, I don't believe the Chinese statistics.  Millions of people and they dropped to almost zero?  Something doesn't smell right.  Are they lying?  Do they have an secret  antidote? If they are accurate, what are they doing to get results that no one is duplicating?

[Guillermo Luijk]

I'm sure your graphs are accurate based on the figures you received.  But frankly, I don't believe the Chinese statistics.  Millions of people and they dropped to almost zero?  Something doesn't smell right.  Are they lying?  Do they have an secret  antidote? If they are accurate, what are they doing to get results that no one is duplicating?

I wouldn't put their figures in the same basket as other countries actually. Anyway we must think China is a huge country and Wuhan was locked down very efficiently. If we just considered the Wuhan region or Hubei city, the rates would be very different (they would basically move up and right in the graph).

Regards

[Robert Roaldi]

Having just read some of the posts on the last two pages, I think it's time to exit.  It appears that nobody is interested in science at this point but just hurling invectives at or across one another.  This defeats the aim of the thread.  I'll leave it to all of you to find your information elsewhere as I'm out of here and won't be providing further updates.

For the record, the real number to focus on is the mortality rate as a percentage of infected individuals.  the absolute number of deaths doesn't mean much if you don't have the denominator.  Until mass blood testing for antibodies is done, the latter number will never be known.  Even if deaths are being under counted it's still possible that SARS-CoV-2 is worse than the average seasonal flu but maybe in line with the 1957 Hong Kong epidemic.

Have fun talking among yourselves; I've got my daily newsletter on advances to get out.

Sorry to hear it but I understand.

[LesPalenik]

Finnish researchers released a dramatic video how someone coughing in a store could spread the virus droplets in one isle and across the isles.
The video is available on Spiegel site and text in English below. Spread of virus droplets in a store

Researchers in Finland have released a shocking simulation that apparently shows how respiratory droplets from just one cough in a grocery store can linger in the air for “several minutes” and travel across two aisles, possibly infecting other shoppers nearby with coronavirus.

Aalto University, the Finnish Meteorological Institute, VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland and the University of Helsinki studied how aerosolized particles released from the respiratory tract when coughing, sneezing or even talking flow through the air. Preliminary results indicate that tiny particles carrying the coronavirus can linger in the air for longer than originally thought, reinforcing the importance of completely avoiding crowded spaces, or at the very least following social distancing guidelines.

https://www.kron4.com/health/coronavirus/see-it-simulation-shows-how-cough-can-spread-coronavirus-in-grocery-stores/