COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS

[Alan Goldhammer]

Coronavirus immunity can start to fade away within weeks

https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-new-uk-study-shows-antibodies-fade-after-three-weeks-2020-7

This does not sound very promising.

It's close to meaningless.  The immune system can still retain the 'memory' of infection and mount an immune response quickly upon new exposure.  The immune system is complex and there are a number of different types of response.

[Alan Klein]

It's close to meaningless.  The immune system can still retain the 'memory' of infection and mount an immune response quickly upon new exposure.  The immune system is complex and there are a number of different types of response.

I agree.  We should be immune.  The problem is if it mutates like the seasonal flu changes every year.  Or the common cold. Can you imagine having to put up with this every year?

[LesPalenik]

I agree.  We should be immune.  The problem is if it mutates like the seasonal flu changes every year.  Or the common cold. Can you imagine having to put up with this every year?

Well, if the Moderna vaccine works as promised, we can party, go to the beach, and stay immune to the virus.

Moderna Inc's experimental vaccine for COVID-19 showed it was safe and provoked immune responses in all 45 healthy volunteers in an ongoing early-stage study, U.S. researchers reported on Tuesday. No study volunteers experienced a serious side effect, but more than half reported mild or moderate reactions such as fatigue, headache, chills, muscle aches or pain at the injection site. These were more likely to occur after the second dose and in people who got the highest dose,

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/moderna-phase-1-results-show-210000747.html

[degrub]

Cross your fingers. I think phase 3 trials are starting in less than a couple weeks.

[John Camp]

Cross your fingers. I think phase 3 trials are starting in less than a couple weeks.

A Moderna guy said on CNBC that because of the surging virus, they expect to have some pretty valid information quickly. That's unlike the reported situation in the UK where the Oxford group suggested that a drop in infection rates might slow the returns.

[KLaban]

Cross your fingers. I think phase 3 trials are starting in less than a couple weeks.

Yes, fingers well and truly crossed.

A safe and effective vaccine is our only exit strategy.

[Alan Goldhammer]

A Moderna guy said on CNBC that because of the surging virus, they expect to have some pretty valid information quickly. That's unlike the reported situation in the UK where the Oxford group suggested that a drop in infection rates might slow the returns.

The Oxford vaccine is being tested in Brazil and South Africa.  They will get good data from each of those countries.  The Pfizer mRNA vaccine is superior to the Moderna one from what I have seen of the data.

[kers]

it gets worse in the US; numbers of 15th july
1000 deaths; 70.000 new infections and many states affected
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

[Alan Klein]

it gets worse in the US; numbers of 15th july
100 deaths; 70.000 new infections and many states affected
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

Your link shows America tested 45 million people or 13.5% of our population.  So cases would be up.  We're testing more.

Here's a better graph that show deaths and cases by date for each state in the US, the whole country and the other countries is the world.
https://www.google.com/search?q=covid+deaths+by+date&rlz=1C1PQCZ_enUS902US902&oq=covid+deaths+by+date&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l7.10915j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

[hogloff]

Your link shows America tested 45 million people or 13.5% of our population.  So cases would be up.  We're testing more.

Here's a better graph that show deaths and cases by date for each state in the US, the whole country and the other countries is the world.
https://www.google.com/search?q=covid+deaths+by+date&rlz=1C1PQCZ_enUS902US902&oq=covid+deaths+by+date&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l7.10915j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

What also is up is the % positive test cases which is a key number. In places like Florida it used to be something like 5%...now it's jumped over 20%.

[PeterAit]

A friend of mine co-authored this very clear and concise piece.

(Jeremy: Let me know if this belongs in the political playpen)

https://www.usatoday.com/story/opinion/2020/07/15/why-criticism-dr-anthony-fauci-over-covid-19-misguided-column/5441749002

[Craig Lamson]

What also is up is the % positive test cases which is a key number. In places like Florida it used to be something like 5%...now it's jumped over 20%.

Florida positive numbers are screwed.  A bunch of testing locations only posted positive case numbers, and not the negative numbers, which lead to the positive result for that location ot be 100%. Investigation showed that many were less that 10% instead of 100%.  So take the positive rate for Florida with a grain of salt.

On an interesting side note I had a family member tell me, that her neighbor and her son had been with her father who is 90 and tested positive.    The neighbor was tested and came back negative, her son had an appointment to be tested but canceled. A week later he got a letter from the testing company saying he had tested positive.  Go figure.

[hogloff]

Florida positive numbers are screwed.  A bunch of testing locations only posted positive case numbers, and not the negative numbers, which lead to the positive result for that location ot be 100%. Investigation showed that many were less that 10% instead of 100%.  So take the positive rate for Florida with a grain of salt.

On an interesting side note I had a family member tell me, that her neighbor and her son had been with her father who is 90 and tested positive.    The neighbor was tested and came back negative, her son had an appointment to be tested but canceled. A week later he got a letter from the testing company saying he had tested positive.  Go figure.

Sure, but the 15,000 positive cases do not lie.

[hogloff]

And why is it that no number no matter how it's collected or reported can never be trusted? Without real data you are flying by the seat of your pants.

[Alan Klein]

And why is it that no number no matter how it's collected or reported can never be trusted? Without real data you are flying by the seat of your pants.

Lies, damn lies and statistics. 

[Paulo Bizarro]

Your link shows America tested 45 million people or 13.5% of our population.  So cases would be up.  We're testing more.

Here's a better graph that show deaths and cases by date for each state in the US, the whole country and the other countries is the world.
https://www.google.com/search?q=covid+deaths+by+date&rlz=1C1PQCZ_enUS902US902&oq=covid+deaths+by+date&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l7.10915j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

That logic is flawed. Number of tests does not represent number of people tested. Often 2 tests are required to confirm + cases, and two tests to confirm - cases.

Also, the percentage of positive results in 100 tests in the US is much higher than in other countries, which means the infection is still very active.

[Robert Roaldi]

Lies, damn lies and statistics. 

Please stop repeating this nonsense.

[kers]

Lies, damn lies and statistics. 

[moderator: political comment removed. kers, final warning]

[kers]

Your link shows America tested 45 million people or 13.5% of our population.  So cases would be up.  We're testing more.

Here's a better graph that show deaths and cases by date for each state in the US, the whole country and the other countries is the world.
https://www.google.com/search?q=covid+deaths+by+date&rlz=1C1PQCZ_enUS902US902&oq=covid+deaths+by+date&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l7.10915j0j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

even more death on google- your link   

15 juli - 1413 deaths... the graph is not looking well at all   

[Alan Klein]

Meanwhile Covid continues to take a toll on the economy.  In America, another 1 million plus people were laid off last week and filed for unemployment insurance.  That means that businesses are still laying off.  Those have to be other than service jobs since they were laid off weeks ago.  That means better paying jobs are going, office workers, etc.  There's no recovery.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/07/16/weekly-jobless-claims.html

In Europe, I can't find meaningful recent data.  Does anyone have a link?

In Australia, they're misrepresenting it, claiming about 7% but really about 13%.  In America they're lying too. It's much worse.  I went to Manhattan last week.  There were no buses, no taxis, no delivery trucks, and practically no people on the streets. Is everyone on Zoom working at home?  The office building in normally packed Midtown I went into had one other person I saw go in when I did.  I was the only person on the elevator going up and down.  It was like a ghost town like the scene from I Am Legend movie.
Australia real numbers.  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PaDXqYXkHjc
America real numbers http://www.shadowstats.com/alternate_data/unemployment-charts