COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS

[Alan Klein]

Taking the virus carriers out of circulation is the best way to prevent further spread of infections. It seems to work for them.
If they isolate the carriers, the lockdowns are not required.

Taiwan only tested 21,376 people as of 20 Mar.  They have a population of around 24 million.  That means they tested about one person out of 1100.  How could they catch carriers when testing was only 1/10 of 1%?  So how did they stop the spread with nothing shut down?  Either they lied or something else is going on that limited the disease there.  Is this disease being overestimated in certain areas as to the damage it causes?  If so, why?  It may give us answer to how to stop this thing.  No one seems to be addressing it.  It just seems all political rather than scientific.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing-source-data
https://www.google.com/search?q=taiwan+population&rlz=1C1CHBD_enUS746US746&oq=taiwan+population&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l7.3637j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

[texshooter]

It's time to
  Test and Arrest.

[LesPalenik]

Taiwan only tested 21,376 people as of 20 Mar.  They have a population of around 24 million.  That means they tested about one person out of 1100.  How could they catch carriers when testing was only 1/10 of 1%?  So how did they stop the spread with nothing shut down?  Either they lied or something else is going on that limited the disease there.  Is this disease being overestimated in certain areas as to the damage it causes?  If so, why?  It may give us answer to how to stop this thing.  No one seems to be addressing it.  It just seems all political rather than scientific.
https://ourworldindata.org/coronavirus-testing-source-data
https://www.google.com/search?q=taiwan+population&rlz=1C1CHBD_enUS746US746&oq=taiwan+population&aqs=chrome..69i57j0l7.3637j1j7&sourceid=chrome&ie=UTF-8

They caught the initial carriers and stopped further infections. Also, they learned from their SARS experience.

Despite its closeness to China, physically and in economic terms, Taiwan has had extraordinary success in controlling the coronavirus. Efforts may have been helped by the Sars experience, and the fact that the vice-president is an epidemiologist.

Taiwan was probably the first country to try to stop coronavirus spreading, bringing in checks on travellers from Wuhan at the end of December, after reports of a mystery, pneumonia-like illness.

A command centre for epidemics kicked into action in late January, producing new policies and monitoring virus-tracking and treatment efforts. Wider travel restrictions on people coming from mainland China were introduced despite the insistence of the World Health Organization (WHO) that they were not necessary. Extensive testing and contact-tracing through the public health system prevented the disease spreading.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/mar/15/experience-of-sars-key-factor-in-response-to-coronavirus

[Alan Klein]

They had to be awful lucky that none of the carriers infected others before being found.  What about their SARS experience did they learn that could be useful to us? 

What concern me is that NYS Gov Cuomo said he expected 40-80% of New Yorker to get the disease bud that it's important to lower the curve.  He also says like Trump we have to do something because NY can't handle the economic problem by locking down commerce.  But what I want to know is how come he made that statement about the 40-80%?  Who did he speak too?  What does he know that he made that statement?  It's really scary.

[Manoli]

Forget the math.  Can you summarize in a short statement why it's ending in May?

I can. It isn’t.

[Manoli]

updated 23-March 2100

[Manoli]

xx

[Alan Klein]

I think the chart would look different if was not based on absolute numbers but rather as a percent of the population.  The fact NYC is gaining so many deaths compared to other cities has to be examined in light of it's population of 8 1/2 million.  The New YorK Metropolitan Area that has been affected so greatly has a total population of over 20 million in an area about 100 x 130 miles. 

Infection rates are more revealing I believe than absolute numbers.

[PeterAit]

I think the chart would look different if was not based on absolute numbers but rather as a percent of the population.  The fact NYC is gaining so many deaths compared to other cities has to be examined in light of it's population of 8 1/2 million.  The New YorK Metropolitan Area that has been affected so greatly has a total population of over 20 million in an area about 100 x 130 miles. 

Infection rates are more revealing I believe than absolute numbers.

Exactly correct.

[Alan Goldhammer]

Forget the math.  Can you summarize in a short statement why it's ending in May?

Social distancing allows the number of infections to naturally decay.  Italy has seen a decrease in total case for the past three days.

[Manoli]

I think the chart would look different if was not based on absolute numbers but rather as a percent of the population.  [...] Infection rates are more revealing I believe than absolute numbers.

The total deaths are a measure of change. The SLOPE of the line is what 'they' are concentrating on.

[Paulo Bizarro]

The total deaths are a measure of change. The SLOPE of the line is what 'they' are concentrating on.

Indeed. Data from a few minutes ago, compilede here:

https://expresso.pt/coronavirus/2020-03-24-Infografia-covid-19.-Como-compara-Portugal-com-os-paises-mais-afetados--Menos-mal-mas-nao-para-descansar

It's in Portuguese, but the graph is self explanatory. You can hover with the mouse on a curve to see the country. The slope measures the rate of growth. Portugal is sort of middle-ground. Countries in the blue lines seem to be flattening the curve, or decreasing the growth rate, which is good.

[Paulo Bizarro]

In countries like Portugal and Spain, it is clear the isolation measures have dcereased the growth rate from around 30-40% a day to around 15-20% a day. This potentially means morelives can be saved. Spain took those measures further along the curve, while here in Portugal we took them earlier. Even though the curves show similar trend, I think we will reach a lower peak compared to Spain.

In the article, USA and Turkey are mentioned as very worrisome cases in the short term.

[Alan Klein]

The total deaths are a measure of change. The SLOPE of the line is what 'they' are concentrating on.

But the chart is comparing areas that have different populations.  Naturally there would be more deaths in higher populated areas than less.  That makes NYC look worse but may not be necessarily so.  It's the infection rate that determines in which area it's spreading faster.  I think that;s a better determinant of which area is in greater danger.

[Alan Klein]

Indeed. Data from a few minutes ago, compilede here:

https://expresso.pt/coronavirus/2020-03-24-Infografia-covid-19.-Como-compara-Portugal-com-os-paises-mais-afetados--Menos-mal-mas-nao-para-descansar

It's in Portuguese, but the graph is self explanatory. You can hover with the mouse on a curve to see the country. The slope measures the rate of growth. Portugal is sort of middle-ground. Countries in the blue lines seem to be flattening the curve, or decreasing the growth rate, which is good.

That's looks like a good chart.  But I could barely access it. 

[Manoli]

But the chart is comparing areas that have different populations.  Naturally there would be more deaths in higher populated areas than less.  That makes NYC look worse but may not be necessarily so.  It's the infection rate that determines in which area it's spreading faster.  I think that;s a better determinant of which area is in greater danger.

Exactly - which is why they're looking at how quickly the death rate is doubling.
Infection (those who test positive, is still an unreiable number) so they're using 'deaths'.

Post #46. What we want is for NY to move to the right , towards California & Washington and for the slope to flatten (less incremental deaths). Look at the fan lines that delineate 'deaths doubling' every two, three days ... every week.

[Alan Klein]

Exactly - which is why they're looking at how quickly the death rate is doubling.
Infection (those who test positive, is still an unreiable number) so they're using 'deaths'.

Post #46. What we want is for NY to move to the right , towards California & Washington and for the slope to flatten (less incremental deaths). Look at the fan lines that delineate 'deaths doubling' every two, three days ... every week.

It may be doubling, but since it such a small part of the whole population, decisions about what to do must be made with that consideration.  If 100,000 New Yorkers eventually wind up with the virus, well that's only around 1%.

[LesPalenik]

It may be doubling, but since it such a small part of the whole population, decisions about what to do must be made with that consideration.  If 100,000 New Yorkers eventually wind up with the virus, well that's only around 1%.

think about the compounding effect.
As of today, the global daily rise in infection is 35,000 and 2,000 in new deaths. By the weekend, there will be globally 25,000 dead and over 500,000 infections.

[Alan Klein]

think about the compounding effect.
As of today, the global daily rise in infection is 35,000 and 2,000 in new deaths. By the weekend, there will be globally 25,000 dead and over 500,000 infections.

A terrible number.  But it's leveling off in a lot of the early countries.  No?

[LesPalenik]

yes, in some countries. But increasing in most. Global death count for today: 2064
By country:
Italy - 743
USA - 120
Spain - 489
France - 240
Iran - 122
UK - 87
Netherlands - 63