Pages: 1 ... 18 19 [20] 21 22 ... 126   Go Down

Author Topic: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS  (Read 86342 times)

Bart_van_der_Wolf

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 8913
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #380 on: April 05, 2020, 10:40:13 am »

I think this is too pessimistic.  Unlike HIV, these types of viral infections are susceptible to a vaccine approach.  There is a UK group that is looking at a similar approach and they developed a MERS vaccine several years ago that elicited a strong immune response.

I was quoting what the Dutch lead scientist at J&J was telling in the interview I mentioned here. She explained that they have developed a special method of modifying a 'regular' flu virus in small amounts, which leads to finding good candidates. But as she said, 10% of the attempts leads to further testing, 90% fails. And then there is the issue of human testing. Vaccination involves introducing antibodies in healthy people. It takes a lot of testing to make sure that these people do not develop issues that they would otherwise have not.

But hey, we only need 1 successful basic vaccine.
Logged
== If you do what you did, you'll get what you got. ==

armand

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5540
    • Photos
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #381 on: April 05, 2020, 10:52:25 am »

As of today, USA has 26 deaths per million, and Germany 17. There is a good chance that due to limited testing the USA infections are under reported.
When the testing in USA will ramp up, the absolute infection count will go up, and the relative death counts in both countries might look more similar.

First, I don’t think this is the best way to look at the data. Maybe one country got hit with a lot more initial exposure than the other. Based on the article posted Germany is testing a lot for quite a while, they had a working test even before Italy got hit. US is likely behind Germany, we have yet to see the worse. I mean the east side of Michigan is swamped, we have yet to get hit anywhere close to them on the west side.

Second, and this is what caught my interest, their ICU mortality looked better than others. If you are on a vent in the ICU, the reported mortality is somewhere in 50-80% range, quite bad.

Martin Kristiansen

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1527
    • Martin Kristiansen
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #382 on: April 05, 2020, 11:06:47 am »

I was quoting what the Dutch lead scientist at J&J was telling in the interview I mentioned here. She explained that they have developed a special method of modifying a 'regular' flu virus in small amounts, which leads to finding good candidates. But as she said, 10% of the attempts leads to further testing, 90% fails. And then there is the issue of human testing. Vaccination involves introducing antibodies in healthy people. It takes a lot of testing to make sure that these people do not develop issues that they would otherwise have not.

But hey, we only need 1 successful basic vaccine.

I watched a YouTube video of an interview with the Dr leading the Covid response in South Korea. One of the final questions was how long until everyone gets a vaccine for Covid 19. I was expected no him to say about 18 months instead he said based on how long it took roll out a vaccine for smallpox and eradicate that disease we should get it done by 2035. I was stunned.

Other thing he said was everyone should wear a mask. He said the evidence was clear, everyone at all times. The interview left me quite miserable to be honest.
Logged
Commercial photography is 10% inspiration and 90% moving furniture around.

Bart_van_der_Wolf

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 8913
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #383 on: April 05, 2020, 11:35:21 am »

I watched a YouTube video of an interview with the Dr leading the Covid response in South Korea. One of the final questions was how long until everyone gets a vaccine for Covid 19. I was expected no him to say about 18 months instead he said based on how long it took roll out a vaccine for smallpox and eradicate that disease we should get it done by 2035. I was stunned.

Other thing he said was everyone should wear a mask. He said the evidence was clear, everyone at all times. The interview left me quite miserable to be honest.

That seems overly cautious. There may be some information that got lost in translation, also regarding the wearing of masks. They almost always use masks, so they don't have as much experience with social distancing without. Just guessing. Things may differ in different contexts.
Logged
== If you do what you did, you'll get what you got. ==

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #384 on: April 05, 2020, 11:35:39 am »

There are not enough genetic tests.  Abbott Labs got approval recently for their quick ID test that runs on a small analyzer.  However, they have only shipped 5500 cassettes as of the end of last week and are projecting 50,000 kits per week being shipped.  there are 18,000 analyzers deployed in the US (this is commonly used for strep tests and other quick diagnostic stuff).  You can do the math and see how few kits there are for each analyzer.  Abbott are one of the biggest diagnostic test companies in the world.  The absence of a large scale deployable blood test is also a problem. there are over 50 such tests developed overseas that have been registered with the FDA. These are self-validated by the company and not by the FDA.  Only one test has been reviewed and given emergency approval by the FDA.  The type of research needed to validate these tests so that they are accurate is not hard once the right reagents are available.  Labs in the US and The Netherlands have already outlined approaches (there may be more but those are the two papers I've read).  This is the type of project that needs to be undertaken ASAP so that tests can be manufactured at scale and deployed.  The US policy folks are again letting us down.
So it's the FDA folks that are letting us down.  Why?  With 50 tests registered, why have they only approved one recently because of the virus?  What have they been doing for the last decade?  Please don't blame Trump.  It seems the FDA procedures may be too stringent or non-existent considering they approved none of the 50 registered tests but one, and only did that as an emergency because of the virus.  Why are they dragging their heels?

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #385 on: April 05, 2020, 11:36:36 am »

Every virus and bacteria disease require its own vaccine.  Right now there is no evidence of mutation in the major surface proteins of the virus have mutated so a vaccine should work.  Seasonal flu vaccines mutate because it can be hosted in animals other than humans which is conducive to genetic changes.
So the Asian flu comes from animals like the Corid-19 virus?  Which animals?

Rob C

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 24074
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #386 on: April 05, 2020, 11:38:12 am »

No problem with that, but some (other) people can't resist to derail threads, so let's not feed them unnecessarily.
I do agree that some tension relief is useful, but the other thread (with lots of dark 'comedy') just got locked, so we need to be cautious with this thread.


No, I believe it got locked because it disintegrated into mindless superhero grandstanding and equally frustrating circular arguments from people unable to retain anything in their heads for even two posts in a row.

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #387 on: April 05, 2020, 11:38:53 am »

In all likelihood, yes similar, and yes it mutates (but there is no experience yet how much).

But when a large portion of the population has developed antibodies (group immunization), there will be fewer infections and those who do get infected will probably be hit less hard. A vaccine will probably not become available in adequate quantities in time. Johnson & Johnson are close to having a vaccine in January 2021 (but there's a 90% chance they may fail, there are no tests done on humans yet), two months after the vaccinations for the regular flu season.
So you and Alan G disagree on whether it mutates.  Do the experts disagree too?  Should us laymen trust anything anyone tells us? 

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #388 on: April 05, 2020, 11:41:45 am »

Not in this thread.

13 posts in 2 hours, coming hard on your >100 posts in 24 hours in the now, thankfully, closed thread. This is a forum not a chat room. You wanna chat ? go on Facebook or Messenger. Don't swamp the content, particularly as you habitually ignore the subject under discussion and wander off on your own myopic agenda.

Engage constructively and all will be well.
You wanna do your Trumpette bit ? open another thread, pretty please.

Edit:
This ^^ 10 times over.
You don't have the authority to monitor my posts.  In any case, maybe you should get a sense of humor.  It would keep you healthier in this time of stress. 

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #389 on: April 05, 2020, 11:45:32 am »

First, I don’t think this is the best way to look at the data. Maybe one country got hit with a lot more initial exposure than the other. Based on the article posted Germany is testing a lot for quite a while, they had a working test even before Italy got hit. US is likely behind Germany, we have yet to see the worse. I mean the east side of Michigan is swamped, we have yet to get hit anywhere close to them on the west side.

Second, and this is what caught my interest, their ICU mortality looked better than others. If you are on a vent in the ICU, the reported mortality is somewhere in 50-80% range, quite bad.
Without knowing when the patients were brought into the ICU, the figures don't necessarily mean anything.  Earlier admission to hospitals may save more lives.  People who wait too long to go to the hospital are in dire shape by that time and more likely to die.  You'd have to study how cases were handled to prove your theory. 

Robert Roaldi

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4763
    • Robert's Photos
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #390 on: April 05, 2020, 11:50:49 am »

So you and Alan G disagree on whether it mutates.  Do the experts disagree too?  Should us laymen trust anything anyone tells us?

Please stop this moronic baiting. Some viruses mutate quickly, some don't. The data is not in yet so no one really knows for sure right at this moment. How many times do people have to repeat this? Why do you keep asking the same questions?
Logged
--
Robert

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #391 on: April 05, 2020, 11:50:56 am »


No, I believe it got locked because it disintegrated into mindless superhero grandstanding and equally frustrating circular arguments from people unable to retain anything in their heads for even two posts in a row.
Frankly, it should have been allowed to go on. After all, one of the Trump threads went on for over 100 pages before it was shut down.  And that had even more vituperation, nonsense, grandstanding, and repetition.  :)

Robert Roaldi

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4763
    • Robert's Photos
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #392 on: April 05, 2020, 11:52:41 am »

So it's the FDA folks that are letting us down.  Why?  With 50 tests registered, why have they only approved one recently because of the virus?  What have they been doing for the last decade?  Please don't blame Trump.  It seems the FDA procedures may be too stringent or non-existent considering they approved none of the 50 registered tests but one, and only did that as an emergency because of the virus.  Why are they dragging their heels?

Why are you jumping to the conclusion that someone is letting you down? These are recent developments and the pipeline for verification may be full.

Are you deliberately trying to derail this thread too? What is your purpose?
Logged
--
Robert

Manoli

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 2296
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #393 on: April 05, 2020, 11:54:58 am »

You don't have the authority to monitor my posts.

I don't need ‘authority’ , I learnt to count past 100 at school.
You want to ignore polite requests not to destroy threads and persist in abject self-centredness, do it in your own thread.
I’m locking this thread for 24 hours , should give you time to cool your heels and be more considerate to others.
Logged

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #394 on: April 06, 2020, 09:14:41 am »

Good morning Manoli.  Hope you slept well?  I did.  Here's something unusual but related to the topic.
As if NYC doesn;t have enough problems:

TIGER tests positive for Covid-19 as 6 more big cats develop ‘dry cough’ at Bronx Zoo
https://www.rt.com/usa/485042-tiger-coronavirus-bronx-zoo/


Here's an interesting concept.  That the virus developed in a Amur Tiger, a species I believe is wild in China.  It spread to humans in China who aren't immune but not to dogs and other animals.  So naturally, when exposed to the disease, a healthy Amur tiger, the one in the zoo,  would likely get infected.  So what is similar about humans and Amur tigers?  This could help find an antidote to the disease. 

Dale Villeponteaux

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 378
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #395 on: April 06, 2020, 09:29:32 am »

So the Asian flu comes from animals like the Corid-19 virus?  Which animals?

For seasonal flu, mallards.

Regards,
Dale
Logged
My avatar isn't an accurate portrayal; I have much less hair.

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15850
    • Flicker photos
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #396 on: April 06, 2020, 09:34:01 am »

For seasonal flu, mallards.

Regards,
Dale
I forgot I asked that question of which animal the virus came from.  So now it seems, Covid-19 may have come from the tiger family, maybe the cat family.  What genetic components are similar between us and them? It could help isolate an antidote or serum to inoculate humans.   

armand

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5540
    • Photos
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #397 on: April 06, 2020, 09:42:15 am »

Without knowing when the patients were brought into the ICU, the figures don't necessarily mean anything.  Earlier admission to hospitals may save more lives.  People who wait too long to go to the hospital are in dire shape by that time and more likely to die.  You'd have to study how cases were handled to prove your theory.

For the last time, read the links provided. I know how the early admission vs late admission works, no need to explain this.

I forgot I asked that question of which animal the virus came from.  So now it seems, Covid-19 may have come from the tiger family, maybe the cat family.  What genetic components are similar between us and them? It could help isolate an antidote or serum to inoculate humans.   

No, it doesn't. Right now it only means it could be transmitted to felines.

Paulo Bizarro

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 7393
    • http://www.paulobizarro.com
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #398 on: April 06, 2020, 09:49:51 am »

It has been stated many times that the tests are not available yet in large numbers so they probably can't do so at this time. Not in all countries yet anyway.

Presumably hospitals test so they know what to do with patients. The kind of random widespread testing you're referring to has a different purpose and will be done elsewhere than in hospitals, is my understanding.

Indeed. Here in Portugal, and I suspect other countries, when we had H1N1 epidemics in 2009, only many months later were the final numbers known: about 160,000 infected, and about 150 dead.

Right now, at least in my country, it is not possible to implement massive testing - there are not enough resources to do so. The current bottleneck is the laboratory processing capability, that sits far below the number of daily samples sent in to them.

faberryman

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4851
Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #399 on: April 06, 2020, 09:50:39 am »

I forgot I asked that question of which animal the virus came from.  So now it seems, Covid-19 may have come from the tiger family, maybe the cat family.  What genetic components are similar between us and them? It could help isolate an antidote or serum to inoculate humans.   
Alan, you need to stay focused on the relation of 5G to the coronavirus. Tigers are just a distraction.h
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 18 19 [20] 21 22 ... 126   Go Up