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Author Topic: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS  (Read 86365 times)

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #780 on: April 18, 2020, 02:13:37 pm »

You can't. Testing needs to be scaled up massively if you are ever going to come out of your lockdown.

Indeed, but the goal in most cases was/is to avoid ICUs being overwhelmed, and in many countries that seems to be successful.
Only with a reproduction number substantially below 1.0 will the virus infections decline.

Once there is a vaccine in adequate quantities, which may take till February 2021, one can create herd immunity which will drive the reproduction number down.
« Last Edit: April 18, 2020, 02:16:59 pm by Bart_van_der_Wolf »
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== If you do what you did, you'll get what you got. ==

elliot_n

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #781 on: April 18, 2020, 02:14:05 pm »

You can't find all those infected unless you test everyone and that's impossible. 

Why?
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #782 on: April 18, 2020, 02:20:42 pm »

You can't. Testing needs to be scaled up massively if you are ever going to come out of your lockdown.
But no one is suggesting that we can test everyone.  That's impossible.  That's a political argument to blame Trump for not having enough testing.  But no country can test all their people.   Italy has performed tests at the highest rate.  Only around 23 per thousand individuals. So 977 of the thousand were not tested.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/13/nyregion/coronavirus-testing.html

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #783 on: April 18, 2020, 02:22:17 pm »

Why?
How do you know who's infected if you haven't tested them? 

elliot_n

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #784 on: April 18, 2020, 02:27:34 pm »

How do you know who's infected if you haven't tested them? 

I'm asking why, in an advanced country, is it impossible to test everyone?

(You don't need to test everyone, but you do need to test a helluva lot more than you're testing now.)


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elliot_n

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #785 on: April 18, 2020, 02:31:08 pm »

That's a political argument to blame Trump for not having enough testing.

On the contrary, a ramping up of testing is exactly what Trump is proposing in his 'Open Up America Again' plan.
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Manoli

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #786 on: April 18, 2020, 02:37:16 pm »

Alan ,

You just cant control yourself, 12 posts today alone. Recycling the same old. It's not a chat room , it's a forum. I've had too many PM 's complaining and sadly you just insist on the 'bull in a china shop' approach and carry on regardless.

Appeal to all who contributed here. Please don't feed they who troll if and when it's reopened. Now it's locked.
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #787 on: April 20, 2020, 04:10:24 pm »

Breaking radio silence.  There is a really good paper I read this morning on a vaccine candidate being developed in China.  The abstract and paper are here:  https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.046375v1  It's is going into clinical trials this week and is the third vaccine being tested in China.  This particular vaccine is the first that has convincing animal data, showing clear protection.  My hunch is that China will have the first vaccine that gets licensed for broad use.  Huge amount of irony if this does happen.

Back to radio silence.
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LesPalenik

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #788 on: April 21, 2020, 01:03:53 am »

A new type of email extortions is coming.

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In emails that have been circulating in Germany for a few weeks now, the extortionists now write that they would infect all family members with the Sars-CoV-2 coronavirus. "Believe me, I can infect them all," it says in an email like this. To prevent this, the victims should transfer the equivalent of $ 4,000 in Bitcoin within 24 hours.

"We are now investigating several cases in which extortion emails with the threat of infection with the corona virus were sent," said Attorney General Thomas Goger from the Bavarian cybercrime central office ZCB. However, according to experts, criminals are sometimes in possession of private details of their victims. In order to make the extortion more threatening, the hackers send a password to an online account of their victims.

https://www.spiegel.de/netzwelt/web/cybercrime-hacker-drohen-familien-mit-corona-infektion-und-fordern-bitcoin-a-ac9e8945-edc1-456d-8a6b-32515e2293c1
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LesPalenik

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #789 on: April 21, 2020, 01:23:37 am »

French couple who left their underage children at home and went on European trip was stopped by Bavarian police. They wanted to travel all over Europe.

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A couple from France had apparently taken a Europe-wide city tour in the middle of the corona crisis - leaving three underage children at home. The 38-year-old and her 37-year-old partner had been stopped by a patrol in Siegsdorf in Bavaria last Friday, as the police headquarters in Upper Bavaria announced. The couple were in the car, had a toddler with them, and claimed to be on a city visit.

The family had previously been refused entry to Austria at the border at Bad Reichenhall. As it turned out, they were already being pursued in their home country: according to the police, the couple had simply left three other underage children in France. The children therefore turned to the French police, who arranged for the parents to be resettled. According to the investigators, the couple had already traveled 1,400 kilometers at the time of the check. How the family managed to enter Germany despite border controls is not known, said a police spokeswoman. In Bavaria, because of the exit restrictions, only those who have a valid reason can leave the house. A vacation trip is not included, so the police issued them a fine. This was processed by "depositing a security deposit on the spot", the report said. According to the spokeswoman, it was a three-digit sum.

https://www.spiegel.de/panorama/justiz/bayern-polizei-stoppt-paar-auf-europareise-minderjaehrige-kinder-daheim-gelassen-a-1b718f7e-8430-4841-aba1-d34099b1e50e
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LesPalenik

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #790 on: April 21, 2020, 05:42:24 am »

On the French aircraft carrier "Charles de Gaulle", more than half of the 2000-man crew is infected with the virus.

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The "Charles de Gaulle" had left her home port on January 21, 2019. It ran out to take part in "Operation Chammal" against the terrorist militia "Islamic State"; Operations in Syria and Libya were flown by the French aircraft carrier.

In mid-March this year she made a stopover in Brest on the Atlantic coast. The mission was about to end. In view of the increasing corona cases in the country, the usual family visits on board the aircraft carrier were canceled. But the soldiers were given permission to go ashore what was probably a fatal decision. In addition, 52 new crew members came on board before the "Charles de Gaulle" departed on March 16. That same evening, Macron announced a nationwide curfew of fourteen days.

Inside the huge aircraft carrier, it's very tight: the men sleep in bunk beds, sometimes up to twenty of them are in a cabin. The safety distance on the corridors and stair ladders of the "Charles de Gaulle" can hardly be kept. If you are traveling from deck to deck on the steep stairways, you have to hold on to the handrails so as not to fall. The commander of the "Charles de Gaulle" sticks to the continuation of the journey in spite of everything and writes a letter to the families of the soldiers on March 20th: "The aircraft carrier remains in use to defend the interests of France and to show our determination to act together with our allies. "

Meanwhile, scientists are deriving new knowledge from the involuntary floating laboratory test. More than half of the 1046 infected soldiers showed no or only very weak symptoms. A similar observation was made by the Americans, who are struggling with hundreds of infections on their aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt. "This means that there is likely to be a significant number of asymptomatic outcomes, particularly among younger people," said Jean-François Delfraissy, president of the Corona Crisis Scientific Council.

https://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/corona-auf-flugzeugtraeger-charles-de-gaulle-schwimmender-laborversuch-a-1c6b4130-34a1-40ca-9ecf-d88668e942bc
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KLaban

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #791 on: April 21, 2020, 08:59:16 am »

Breaking radio silence.  There is a really good paper I read this morning on a vaccine candidate being developed in China.  The abstract and paper are here:  https://www.biorxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.17.046375v1  It's is going into clinical trials this week and is the third vaccine being tested in China.  This particular vaccine is the first that has convincing animal data, showing clear protection.  My hunch is that China will have the first vaccine that gets licensed for broad use.  Huge amount of irony if this does happen.

Back to radio silence.

Why on earth radio silence? You are one of the few contributing to these Covid-19 threads that has a clue.

I've read several articles on the history of pandemics that state second waves, when they have struck, are often even more deadly. Perhaps you could give us your opinion?

Robert Roaldi

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #792 on: April 21, 2020, 10:00:19 am »

An informative film short from Cambridge Univ about the Spanish Flu and viruses in general, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3x1aLAw_xkY. About 11 min long.
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BobShaw

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #793 on: April 22, 2020, 07:06:19 pm »

An informative film short from Cambridge Univ about the Spanish Flu and viruses in general, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3x1aLAw_xkY. About 11 min long.
An interesting film. My father often spoke of the "Pneumonic Flu" rather than the "Spanish Flu". Everyone was getting it and dying in the town he lived in so he hopped on a horse and left. The people dying were mainly younger people too. It is interesting that it was called the Spanish Flu because the Spanish media were the first to write about it when in fact it started elsewhere.
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John Camp

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #794 on: April 22, 2020, 07:45:38 pm »

More than 2,500 Covid-19 deaths in the US in the last 24 hours. Even if the rate slows a bit, we'll be well past 60,000 before the end of the month. 60,000 is the estimated number of flu deaths in the worst flu season in the past ten years, and we'll have taken only a month and a half with Covid-19 to surpass that total.
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Chris Kern

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #795 on: April 22, 2020, 08:37:57 pm »

For those who haven't seen it yet, here is a link to the latest update from the University of Washington’s (Seattle) Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, whose data-driven models are preferred by the Trump Administration over the more theoretical ones produced by the Imperial College (London) model.

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #796 on: April 22, 2020, 08:58:50 pm »

For those who haven't seen it yet, here is a link to the latest update from the University of Washington’s (Seattle) Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, whose data-driven models are preferred by the Trump Administration over the more theoretical ones produced by the Imperial College (London) model.
GIGO Garbage In = Garbage Out.  What is the basis of their projections when this is the first time we've been through this?   They're using a 1 per 1,000,000 cases as some sort of standard.  Why not 2 or 5 out of a million?  It's arbitrary.  No one will really know until we start opening up and seeing what happens.  At least with hurricanes, you have decades of storms you can put in your models to project where they are going.  And even the models, and there are dozens of them,  predict different tracks. 

I think it's good that the CDC set up some conservative standard.  But the president is letting the 50 governors decide what they want to do in their states.  This gives us a great experiment to see what works best.  By not having a one size fits all policy, we'll get to see what actually happens in the real world taking different paths.  If some states jump the gun, then they'll suffer.  But they will teach the rest of the states an important lesson.  If some states open early, and we find that not too many problems occur, then we'll learn a different lesson.  All we've been doing to date is arguing who's right based on no experience and little precedent.  We're going to educate ourselves over the next few weeks in what really works and what really doesn't.  It will also make it easier to handle if it comes back in the future.

Chris Kern

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #797 on: April 22, 2020, 09:05:31 pm »

GIGO Garbage In = Garbage Out.  What is the basis of their projections when this is the first time we've been through this?   They're using a 1 per 1,000,000 cases as some sort of standard.  Why not 2 or 5 out of a million?  It's arbitrary.

Please confine this type of uninformed, tendentious, speculative comment to the political ("playpen") thread.

chez

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #798 on: April 22, 2020, 09:17:57 pm »

More than 2,500 Covid-19 deaths in the US in the last 24 hours. Even if the rate slows a bit, we'll be well past 60,000 before the end of the month. 60,000 is the estimated number of flu deaths in the worst flu season in the past ten years, and we'll have taken only a month and a half with Covid-19 to surpass that total.

Let's not forget the isolation and distancing measures in place to slow down the virus. I shudder to think where we'd be at world wide if we just treated this like the flu.
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #799 on: April 22, 2020, 09:34:39 pm »

Please confine this type of uninformed, tendentious, speculative comment to the political ("playpen") thread.
My post is not political.  It's questioning the science behind their theory  Your post and their theory are as speculative as anyone else's.  To argue that someone's theory of how we should do things is the only truth, is just a way to shut up someone else's viewpoint.  It's a logical argument I'm making.  Why should anyone take what some publication says as the truth.  To not argue it's deficiencies is stacking the deck.  And who are you to make that determination that they're correct?  Frankly, if Jeremy decides to stop me from posting to this thread based on this, or the OP figures he should halt the thread again because he doesn't like opposing viewpoints, I'll be glad to go away and let you both preach to the choir on your own. It would be a  pyrrhic victory proving your prejudice on how to determine truth. 
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