COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS

[John Camp]

You mean like the Washington Post owned by Jeff Bezos?

I kinda like the idea of equating Jeff Bezos with the Moonies. But let me suggest that you look at the NO POLITICS part of this thread's title. Or are you trying to shut this one down, too?

[Alan Klein]

I kinda like the idea of equating Jeff Bezos with the Moonies. But let me suggest that you look at the NO POLITICS part of this thread's title. Or are you trying to shut this one down, too?

I was responding to PeterAit's post.  He politicized an article I referred too.  Why aren't you complaining about his political post?  In fact you're doing the same thing I did by policizing Jeff Bezos, exactly as I did.  So you;re guilty of it like Peter.   If someone else posts something about the nature of one newspaper, we should be able to comment about another newspaper.

[Peter McLennan]

I was responding to PeterAit's post.  He politicized an article I referred too.  Why aren't you complaining about his political post?

MOM! He started it!!!

[Alan Klein]

MOM! He started it!!!

I'm not blaming him.  I stand by my response.  What I'm questioning is why you're taking sides?

[Alan Klein]

Like I've been saying,  don't count your chickens before they hatch.

"South Korea, a country held up as a model for its response to Covid-19, is on the brink of a new nationwide outbreak, according to officials"
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-asia-53888219

[LesPalenik]

Like I've been saying,  don't count your chickens before they hatch.

"South Korea, a country held up as a model for its response to Covid-19, is on the brink of a new nationwide outbreak, according to officials"
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-asia-53888219

Yesterday's counts - South Korea - 266 new cases, 309 - total deaths. USA - 41,484 new cases, 181,114 total deaths. 51M people in SK, vs 331M in USA.

[Ray]

Yesterday's counts - South Korea - 266 new cases, 309 - total deaths. USA - 41,484 new cases, 181,114 total deaths. 51M people in SK, vs 331M in USA.

It's always important to view the number of Covid-related deaths per size of population in any particular country, whether deaths per 100,000 or deaths per million, so thanks for mentioning the population size and encouraging us to do some basic maths. 

The USA deaths per million are currently 547. South Korean deaths per million are only 6, whilst China's deaths per million are even lower, at just 3. Wow!

However, Thailand's deaths per million are lower still, less than one person per million, just 0.8. That's very remarkable. If I were stuck abroad because of Covid-19, I'd choose Thailand, or perhaps Vietnam with only 0.3 deaths per million. 

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/?utm_campaign=homeAdvegas1?%22%20%5Cl%20%22countries

[Paulo Bizarro]

Like I've been saying,  don't count your chickens before they hatch.

"South Korea, a country held up as a model for its response to Covid-19, is on the brink of a new nationwide outbreak, according to officials"
https://www.bbc.com/news/amp/world-asia-53888219

And like many have said countless times, a resurgence/second wave is expected. The magnitude will depend on how countries and especially population in general faces the threat. In some countries, like Spain (closest to Portugal, so I know more about it) looks like a good part of the population already forgot what happenned in March, April, and May.

It seems like the USA is still is the first wave...

[Alan Klein]

And like many have said countless times, a resurgence/second wave is expected. The magnitude will depend on how countries and especially population in general faces the threat. In some countries, like Spain (closest to Portugal, so I know more about it) looks like a good part of the population already forgot what happenned in March, April, and May.

It seems like the USA is still is the first wave...

I predicted a couple months ago the US will settle out by the end of August, that the disease has to go through the community.  The northeast (NY and NJ) was hit first.  It needed to go through the west and south which it's now doing.   I think the "resurgence/second wave" in other countries is really a continuation of the first wave.  Hopefully America will be done with that and will be able to deal with small "outbreaks" more easily. 

Now whether there will be a second wave, one brought on by a variant of the disease, I don't know.  Time will tell. But countries like America, Portugal, Spain, Italy, and Sweden, who got hit harder than others, for whatever the reasons, will stand up better going forward.  What doesn't kill you makes you stronger.

Here’s why new cases of the coronavirus are down across most of the U.S.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/25/new-cases-of-the-coronavirus-are-falling-in-most-of-the-us.html

[jeremyrh]

But countries like America, Portugal, Spain, Italy, and Sweden, who got hit harder than others, for whatever the reasons, will stand up better going forward.  What doesn't kill you makes you stronger.

Because ... ??

Here’s why new cases of the coronavirus are down across most of the U.S.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/08/25/new-cases-of-the-coronavirus-are-falling-in-most-of-the-us.html

Epidemiologists credit a more unified health message in the U.S. that has more people following social distancing rules. They also say that keeping some businesses closed has helped slow the outbreak. .

[Alan Klein]

Epidemiologists credit a more unified health message in the U.S. that has more people following social distancing rules. They also say that keeping some businesses closed has helped slow the outbreak. .

That's true.  However, my point is that the disease has to go through the community, slow or fast, to reach a stabilization point. The quicker it goes through, the quicker that point is reached and society can get back to some normalcy.

[jeremyrh]

That's true.  However, my point is that the disease has to go through the community, slow or fast, to reach a stabilization point. The quicker it goes through, the quicker that point is reached and society can get back to some normalcy.

You've said that many times but there is no evidence for it.

[LesPalenik]

That's true.  However, my point is that the disease has to go through the community, slow or fast, to reach a stabilization point. The quicker it goes through, the quicker that point is reached and society can get back to some normalcy.

That's about as weak an argument as the theory about C19 dying in the summer or the herd immunity fallacy. The only safe stabilization point is about 6 feet from your food delivery man.

[Alan Klein]

You've said that many times but there is no evidence for it.

Of course things are getting better.  A semblance of normalcy is returning here in New Jersey as more and more things are opening up.  My town only had three new case of Covid in the last 5 days. Three people died in  the entire state. Similar improvement will follow in the south and west as the number of cases decrease.

Here are the plans for opening schools.  It's complicated and open to lots of revisions.  But we're moving forward.  Be positive.

N.J. takes a regional approach to school reopening. Here’s why (Gov.) Murphy says that won’t work for indoor dining, gyms.

https://www.nj.com/education/2020/08/nj-takes-a-regional-approach-to-school-reopening-heres-why-murphy-says-that-wont-work-for-indoor-dining-gyms.html

Our next door neighbor, the State of Pennsylvania, only had one death in the whole state, better than us in NJ.  They're using a hybrid method for school openings.
Pa. coronavirus updates: 426 new cases; only one more death; schools and sports preparing for a strange year in the classroom, at home and on the field | Pa. COVID-19 county case map (08/24/20)
https://www.lehighvalleylive.com/coronavirus/2020/08/pa-coronavirus-updates-426-new-cases-only-one-more-death-schools-and-sports-preparing-for-a-strange-year-in-the-classroom-at-home-and-on-the-field-pa-covid-19-county-case-map-082420.html

[jeremyrh]

Of course things are getting better.  A semblance of normalcy is returning here in New Jersey as more and more things are opening up.  My town only had three new case of Covid in the last 5 days. Three people died in  the entire state. Similar improvement will follow in the south and west as the number of cases decrease.

Yes there are improvements - you yourself posted an article explaining why - nothing to do with 'places hit harder restore normailty quicker'.

[Alan Klein]

That's about as weak an argument as the theory about C19 dying in the summer or the herd immunity fallacy. The only safe stabilization point is about 6 feet from your food delivery man.

Herd immunity is not a fallacy.  What's being questioned is when it kicks in. I would think it's on a sliding scale.  The more people who have had it, the slower it spreads.  It doubt if there an exact percent where it switches in like an on-off switch. 

[jeremyrh]

Herd immunity is not a fallacy.  What's being questioned is when it kicks in. I would think it's on a sliding scale.  The more people who have had it, the slower it spreads.  It doubt if there an exact percent where it switches in like an on-off switch.

I'd imagine that there is a pretty small range of percentages where it switches on/off, similar to percolation phenomena.  But in any case, the percentage needing immunity to protect the "herd" seems to be in excess of 50%.  That would pretty much eliminate the 'senior community'.

[Alan Klein]

I'd imagine that there is a pretty small range of percentages where it switches on/off, similar to percolation phenomena.  But in any case, the percentage needing immunity to protect the "herd" seems to be in excess of 50%.  That would pretty much eliminate the 'senior community'.

Just to clarify my point.  If a majority of younger people, God bless them , sacrificed themselves and got Covid because they hang out in discos (am I dating myself?), then us old fogies would be protected because there are so few people left who haven't gotten the disease. Herd immunity would have kicked in or at least partially.

A vaccine could add to the herd immunity so we all can come out of our air raid shelters and breathe fresh air again.

[jeremyrh]

Just to clarify my point.  If a majority of younger people, God bless them , sacrificed themselves and got Covid because they hang out in discos (am I dating myself?), then us old fogies would be protected because there are so few people left who haven't gotten the disease. Herd immunity would have kicked in or at least partially.

A vaccine could add to the herd immunity so we all can come out of our air raid shelters and breathe fresh air again.

The assumption behind the 50% ( or whatever) figure is that these people will be generally evenly distributed in the population. So.you don't get out of jail by sacrificing a limited group of people.

[LesPalenik]

Just to clarify my point.  If a majority of younger people, God bless them , sacrificed themselves and got Covid because they hang out in discos (am I dating myself?), then us old fogies would be protected because there are so few people left who haven't gotten the disease. Herd immunity would have kicked in or at least partially.

A vaccine could add to the herd immunity so we all can come out of our air raid shelters and breathe fresh air again.

For the last six months, I've been out every day and breathing the fresh air. Keeping away from vaccines and herds.