COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS

[faberryman]

My cardiologist doesn't care how much steak I eat as long as I don't eat carbs. Actually since the virus, I've laid off ice cream because I won't go the the shop to buy it.  My weight's been static but not enough exercise.  Does carrying my photo backpack and tripod count for anything? Posting on forums has eliminated boredom and allows me to direct my anger outwards. No shrink for me. 

Sounds like you won't have anything to talk about then.

[LesPalenik]

My cardio office still performs ECG, Ultrasound and BP checks. All these procedures done by the assistant, so the doctor stays safe.

[hogloff]

My next "visit" in a week with my heart doctor will be on the phone.  Seems kinda silly, doesn't it?

Just put your phone up to your chest and let doc listen.

[Alan Klein]

My cardio office still performs ECG, Ultrasound and BP checks. All these procedures done by the assistant, so the doctor stays safe.

My dentist's office hasn't returned my two calls to set up an appointment.  I hope he's all right. 

[Alan Klein]

Just put your phone up to your chest and let doc listen.

Well, I have a O2 monitor and blood pressure machine.  So I could give him those measurements.  Just no EKG.

[LesPalenik]

Well, I have a O2 monitor and blood pressure machine.  So I could give him those measurements.  Just no EKG.

The latest Apple Watch Series 5 provides a simplified ECG function. Not as accurate as the big ECG machines, but constant 24/7 monitoring.
The watch monitors constantly your heart beat and if it detects any irregularity, it sounds a heart fibrillation warning.

[Alan Klein]

Herd immunity may be reached with much lower levels of spread in a community, city or nation maybe even down to 43% or even to 10-20% from the 70% scientists originally suggested. Poorer and harder hit neighborhoods could do a lot better than richer neighborhoods that were isolated more.   The NYC's, Italy's and Spain's that got hit hardest, would do the best. This new theory if true support's Sweden's methods who did it by political design.  That also bodes well for a vaccine with let's say a 50% efficacy rate.

Pay now or pay later.

What if ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Closer Than Scientists Thought?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html

[faberryman]

Pay now or pay later.

I thought the idea was that you don’t pay later if you develop herd immunity or have a vaccine, or both. Isn’t that what you are doing, staying home until there is a vaccine so you won’t be a pay later casualty when you finally come out?

[Paulo Bizarro]

Herd immunity may be reached with much lower levels of spread in a community, city or nation maybe even down to 43% or even to 10-20% from the 70% scientists originally suggested. Poorer and harder hit neighborhoods could do a lot better than richer neighborhoods that were isolated more.   The NYC's, Italy's and Spain's that got hit hardest, would do the best. This new theory if true support's Sweden's methods who did it by political design.  That also bodes well for a vaccine with let's say a 50% efficacy rate.

Pay now or pay later.

What if ‘Herd Immunity’ Is Closer Than Scientists Thought?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/08/17/health/coronavirus-herd-immunity.html

Be it 20% or 70%, the more affected regions in the 1st wave in Europre (say Spain, Italy) have achieved a very low immunity (on the order of 2%), so there is a long way to go in that regard.

On another note, Spain is back to 3,000 cases per day, France and UK over 1,000 cases. Even if the mortality rate is lower in this 2nd wave (affecting the younger population), that means a lot of people will still die... seems like people have short span memory and continue to disregard the necessary measures.

[armand]

My main concern is the long term immunity where the data is not that clear. If we are vulnerable to get it again 3-6 months later and/or with new minor mutations, we are truly screwed.

[Alan Klein]

I thought the idea was that you don’t pay later if you develop herd immunity or have a vaccine, or both. Isn’t that what you are doing, staying home until there is a vaccine so you won’t be a pay later casualty when you finally come out?

Yes, It's true if the vaccine works that many of us can evade getting sick.  Frankly, it's what I'm hoping for.  The pay now or pay later was referring to just herd immunity caused by the disease itself. Interestingly, the annual flu shots only reduce seasonal flu cases and death by 10-20%.  I thought it was more effective.  If that's going to be how effective Covid vaccine is, we're screwed. 

[faberryman]

Herd immunity may be reached with much lower levels of spread in a community, city or nation maybe even down to 43% or even to 10-20% from the 70% scientists originally suggested. Poorer and harder hit neighborhoods could do a lot better than richer neighborhoods that were isolated more.   The NYC's, Italy's and Spain's that got hit hardest, would do the best. This new theory if true support's Sweden's methods who did it by political design.  That also bodes well for a vaccine with let's say a 50% efficacy rate.

This argument reminds me of thinking about buying a boat. I was down at the boat show and I saw this great boat that was marked down from $70,000 to $43,000. I was pretty excited. Then I talked to this guy who said that since it was last years model it would soon be marked down to $10,000-$20,000. The problem was I only had $2000 in savings, and I was waiting to see if my uncle was really going to die and leave me something.

None of that is true of course, but think about the price of the boat being the immunity percentage for herd immunity, my savings as the current percentage of immunity, and my hoped for inheritance the vaccine. I think heard immunity is going to be dependent on a very effective vaccine. It just doesn't look like it is in the cards that we are going to be able to die our way to herd immunity, not even in Sweden.

To be clear, I don't know anything about boats or epidemiology, so I may be wrong.

[Alan Klein]

 Your guess as good as anyone else's including the experts. They aren't agreeing on anything either.

[faberryman]

Interestingly, the annual flu shots only reduce seasonal flu cases and death by 10-20%.  I thought it was more effective.  If that's going to be how effective Covid vaccine is, we're screwed.

Some years are better than others. I don't know where the 10-20% figure comes from. The 40% figure has been bandied about before here on LuLa. I thought it was even higher than that.

[TechTalk]

Interestingly, the annual flu shots only reduce seasonal flu cases and death by 10-20%.

Would you please share your source for that assertion? The CDC estimate of effectiveness is much greater.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/vaccineeffect.htm

[Alan Klein]

Some years are better than others. I don't know where the 10-20% figure comes from. The 40% figure has been bandied about before here on LuLa. I thought it was even higher than that.

I'd have to find it again but that's what I recall from my computations a few months ago.  The 40% is the effectiveness of the vaccine in some years.  So I thought the results would be better too.  But when I actually did the math on the total numbers, it came out to 10% and 20%.    The difference between the 10/20% and the 40% could be accounted for because not everyone takes the vaccine.  So the overall percentage of cases and deaths would be the lower number. 

For example, I recall in one year there were 16 million cases.  The CDC estimated the vaccine reduced it from 20 million estimated potential cases which means a 20% reduction.  However, the vaccine was 40% effective.  The death rate was even worse.  I recall a 10% calculation overall although I don't recall the actual number.  I've always assumed taking the vaccine was a big deal.  The low protection really surprised me even though the numbers are distorted by those who never took the vaccine. 

[Alan Klein]

Ok My memory is pretty solid.  Here's the data I used.

The Benefits of Flu Vaccination 2018-2019 Infographic (Text Version)
Approximately 49 percent of the US population chose to get a flu vaccine during the 2018-2019 flu season, and this prevented an estimated:
4.4 million flu illnesses, more than the population Los Angles.
58,000 flu hospitalizations, about the number of students at Ohio State University.
3,500 flu deaths, equivalent to saving about 10 lives per day over the course of a year.
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden-averted/2018-2019.htm

There were 21,000,000 actual cases and 34, 000 actual deaths
https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/2018-2019.html

So do the math.  That's a reduction of 21% in cases (4.4M/21M) and 10% in deaths (3.5K/34K).

[faberryman]

I didn't check your math. I'll just say that the CDC doesn't really know how many people were vaccinated, how many people with and without the vaccine got sick, and how many people with and without the vaccine died of the flu. You make me actually count the polar bears. So why do you and the CDC get to use made up data and an algorithm made up in your heads.

This is like we discussed before about digital scales. If you buy a $10 digital scale off eBay, and it has a read-out that goes to four places, it doesn't mean it is accurate out to four places.

That's why the CDC estimates 40-60% effectiveness. That's a pretty broad range because they know they are just guessing. It is an informed guess, but a guess nonetheless. I don't know why they didn't go with your calculation of 10-20%. You might want to email them about it.

[LesPalenik]

I didn't check your math. I'll just say that the CDC doesn't really know how many people were vaccinated, how many people with and without the vaccine got sick, and how many with and without the vaccine died of the flu. You make me actually count the polar bears. So why do you and the CDC get to use made up data and an algorithm made up in your heads.

That's why the CDC estimates a 40-60%. That's a pretty broad range because they know they are just guessing. It is an informed guess, but a guess nonetheless. I don't know why they didn't go with your calculation of 10-20%.

Could be that CDC did their calculations comparing the deaths to number of shots issued, whereas Alan applied it to the whole population of USA (vaccinated and not vaccinated).

[faberryman]

Could be that CDC did their calculations comparing the deaths to number of shots issued, whereas Alan applied it to the whole population of USA (vaccinated and not vaccinated).

Who knows why there is such a large discrepancy between Alan's calculation and the CDC's estimate.