COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS

[Paulo Bizarro]

But officials aren't making that clear.  They keep talking about infection (and death) rates as if they're testing the general public. They're not. They're testing suspected infectees. So the statistics may be raising more fear than the real infection rate would cause. 

If after this is all over, we're told that the real infection rate was a fraction of what they told us, there's going to be a lot of angry people and hell to pay.  Did we shut down the economies of the world based on distorted statistics? Why didn't the powers to be tell us what the figures really meant?  Why didn't they test differently?  Did I lose my job unnecessarily and can't feed my family because of it.  Heads will swing.

I'm not saying these deaths are not terrible.  They are.  But the impression is it's a lot worse than it may turn out to be could cause us to make policy decisions that are wrong.

You are correct that once a lot more of the population is testec, the death rate will be lower than now. That is expected, and well exemplified by previous epidemics and pandemics. However, the infection rate of SARS-COV-2 is already well established, 1 individual will infect between 2 and 3. This is double the seasonal flu.

And here in lies the issue: even if the mortality rate turns out to be lower than now (once more people get tested), it seems that it will be above the mortality rate of previous coronavirus infections, especially above 70 years old or so. Right now, in Portugal, average mortality rate is 2.6%, and above 70 is 9%. Even if these figures are reduced by halfonce alot more people are tested, they are still many times above the seasonal flu, for instance.

[Paulo Bizarro]

Still on current numbers for death rate, as of today:

1.In Spain, 10 out of 100 infected have died.

2. In Italy, 12 out of 100 infected have died.

3. In Germany, which is the 4th country in number of confirmed cases, death rate is at 1.5%.

The above numbers give a good range for death rates as per the sampled population today. Of course, when a larger portion of the population is sampled, death rate will go down - but even if in the end it goes down to 0.5% or 1%, that is still several orders of magnitude higher than seasonal flu.

Wordlwide, with roughly 1,000,000 cases and 80,000 deaths, detah rate is 8%. Clearly, the death rate of this thing will end up being higher than others.

[Alan Klein]

Still on current numbers for death rate, as of today:

1.In Spain, 10 out of 100 infected have died.

2. In Italy, 12 out of 100 infected have died.

3. In Germany, which is the 4th country in number of confirmed cases, death rate is at 1.5%.

The above numbers give a good range for death rates as per the sampled population today. Of course, when a larger portion of the population is sampled, death rate will go down - but even if in the end it goes down to 0.5% or 1%, that is still several orders of magnitude higher than seasonal flu.

Wordlwide, with roughly 1,000,000 cases and 80,000 deaths, detah rate is 8%. Clearly, the death rate of this thing will end up being higher than others.

...and the point is?

[Robert Roaldi]

...and the point is?

Clearly stated in his last sentence.

[armand]

...and the point is?

That would be better if you stick to the other thread

[LesPalenik]

I forgot I asked that question of which animal the virus came from.  So now it seems, Covid-19 may have come from the tiger family, maybe the cat family.  What genetic components are similar between us and them? It could help isolate an antidote or serum to inoculate humans.   

Can a tiger get infected by eating a sick man?

[Alan Goldhammer]

Good morning Manoli.  Hope you slept well?  I did.  Here's something unusual but related to the topic.
As if NYC doesn;t have enough problems:

TIGER tests positive for Covid-19 as 6 more big cats develop ‘dry cough’ at Bronx Zoo
https://www.rt.com/usa/485042-tiger-coronavirus-bronx-zoo/


Here's an interesting concept.  That the virus developed in a Amur Tiger, a species I believe is wild in China.  It spread to humans in China who aren't immune but not to dogs and other animals.  So naturally, when exposed to the disease, a healthy Amur tiger, the one in the zoo,  would likely get infected.  So what is similar about humans and Amur tigers?  This could help find an antidote to the disease.

There is already a paper from China documenting SARS-CoV-2 virus in common cats.  It's not known what the relevance this is as cats can get infected by a variety of coronaviruses.  I have not seen any papers documenting cat to human transmission.

[faberryman]

So you and Alan G disagree on whether it mutates.  Do the experts disagree too?  Should us laymen trust anything anyone tells us?

Of course you shouldn't trust anything the experts tell you. What do they know? This whole social distancing and masks thing is bollocks. For example, yesterday afternoon I rounded up our church youth group, and we all piled into vans to visit local nursing homes. You know residents in nursing homes are lonely and really look forward to having visitors. You should have seen their eyes light up when we walked in.

By the way, you mentioned earlier that you were diabetic. I sure hope you haven't fallen for that whole insulin thing. What a scam. That's just big pharma ripping you off. And you really didn't need that triple bypass. The doctor just had college tuition payments due for his two sons. Treating acid reflux as a heart attack is the oldest trick in the book.

The best thing you can do is ignore expert advice and go with your gut.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

Hopefully our resident scientists won't accuse me of "derailing the thread," as it is related to 1. photography 2. Coronavirus (and other):

[Alan Klein]

Clearly stated in his last sentence.

That's not a point.  It's a statement of fact.  Why is he telling this to us?

[chez]

That's not a point.  It's a statement of fact.  Why is he telling this to us?

Because you made this big statement about heads will swing if the rate at the end does not materialize as being theoried today. Paul gave you the stats of today which show magnitude higher rate than the common flu. Given that Covid spreads faster than the common flu and we have no vaccines...today our best bet is to isolate and distance ourselves.

[armand]

Hopefully our resident scientists won't accuse me of "derailing the thread," as it is related to 1. photography 2. Coronavirus (and other):

As far as I recall there have been silver ion paints on the market for a while.

Some data: https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5470207/

[Alan Goldhammer]

Hopefully our resident scientists won't accuse me of "derailing the thread," as it is related to 1. photography 2. Coronavirus (and other):

Silver has long been used for its antimicrobial properties:  https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Medical_uses_of_silver   It's used for water purification on the space station.

[Chris Kern]

Hopefully our resident scientists won't accuse me of "derailing the thread," as it is related to 1. photography 2. Coronavirus (and other):

I admittedly have no relevant expertise, but a quick web search turned up a report commissioned by the manufacturer which suggests that this stuff inhibits bacterial growth, not viruses.

[Craig Lamson]

I admittedly have no relevant expertise, but a quick web search turned up a report commissioned by the manufacturer which suggests that this stuff inhibits bacterial growth, not viruses.

Samsung used to put Silver Ion in their washing machines, like maybe 2006  or so.  Don't know if they stiil do.

[Alan Klein]

Because you made this big statement about heads will swing if the rate at the end does not materialize as being theoried today. Paul gave you the stats of today which show magnitude higher rate than the common flu. Given that Covid spreads faster than the common flu and we have no vaccines...today our best bet is to isolate and distance ourselves.

Higher rate doesn;t mean anything.  There were 500,000 deaths from the common flu.  Currently there are 71,000 deaths from Covid 19.  That's about 1/7TH. Let's say the final Covid results are the same - 500,000.  Young people who have lost the jobs and still aren't working 3 months from now are going to ask why the economy was destroyed, why are they not working?  Who's thinking about them?  They're not going to care about old farts like me.

I'm not saying they're acting reasonable.  What I'm asking is how policy makers are going to respond?  Will they tell them they have to suck it up?  Will they just print a lot more money and bankrupt the entire country?

[chez]

Higher rate doesn;t mean anything.  There were 500,000 deaths from the common flu.  Currently there are 71,000 deaths from Covid 19.  That's about 1/7TH. Let's say the final Covid results are the same - 500,000.  Young people who have lost the jobs and still aren't working 3 months from now are going to ask why the economy was destroyed, why are they not working?  Who's thinking about them?  They're not going to care about old farts like me.

I'm not saying they're acting reasonable.  What I'm asking is how policy makers are going to respond?  Will they tell them they have to suck it up?  Will they just print a lot more money and bankrupt the entire country?

But what if the death count if we just went about business as usual would be in the millions or tens of millions. At what point does a death equal a dollar? I know where I stand...economy comes back...when you are dead...you are dead.

[LesPalenik]

Higher rate doesn;t mean anything.  There were 500,000 deaths from the common flu.  Currently there are 71,000 deaths from Covid 19.  That's about 1/7TH. Let's say the final Covid results are the same - 500,000.  Young people who have lost the jobs and still aren't working 3 months from now are going to ask why the economy was destroyed, why are they not working?  Who's thinking about them?  They're not going to care about old farts like me.

I'm not saying they're acting reasonable.  What I'm asking is how policy makers are going to respond?  Will they tell them they have to suck it up?  Will they just print a lot more money and bankrupt the entire country?

Between the time you looked at the stats and now, another 3,000 people died. Today's count - 1,250 in USA, 5200 worldwide.
At this rate by the year end, there will be 1.5 million deaths worldwide. If the infection rate can't be slowed down, the total damage will be much greater.

You are right, the governments are spending now money which they don't have, the tax revenue has fallen drastically, and will continue to fall for longer than they anticipate.
So they will print more money. Much more money. In USA and everywhere else, except Antarctica which should do well.

[Alan Klein]

Between the time you looked at the stats and now, another 3,000 people died. Today's count - 1,250 in USA, 5200 worldwide.
At this rate by the year end, there will be 1.5 million deaths worldwide. If the infection rate can't be slowed down, the total damage will be much greater.

You are right, the governments are spending now money which they don't have, the tax revenue has fallen drastically, and will continue to fall for longer than they anticipate.
So they will print more money. Much more money. In USA and everywhere else, except Antarctica which should do well.

You're right. It could be terrible. My point is though that if it isn't that bad, for whatever the reason, people who had their lives turned upside down may be furious. They'll be demands for more and more personal bailouts which no one can afford.  Except China.  And Antarctica.

[chez]

You're right. It could be terrible. My point is though that if it isn't that bad, for whatever the reason, people who had their lives turned upside down may be furious. They'll be demands for more and more personal bailouts which no one can afford.  Except China.  And Antarctica.

Rather than being furious...they should be grateful. So if the US doesn't lose 100,000 people to the virus...people will be pissed off? Man...that's ass backwards way of thinking. Very selfish thoughts.