COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS

[faberryman]

Florida reported 94,000 Covid-19 cases on Saturday, up 4.5%, the most new cases for a single day.

The 94,000 is the cumulative number. The daily number is around 3800, with 43 new deaths. Gov. DeSantis said the new cases were mostly among migrant workers living in close quarters. I am not sure why that should make anyone feel better about it.

[jeremyrh]

Are doctors offices open in the U.K. ? Were they closed for a period?

As far as I know GP surgeries stayed open but most if not all consultations were by phone or video. Dentists have been closed until very recently and still remain either closed or operating at reduced capacity. Hospitals cancelled whole swathes of procedures and e.g. bowel cancer screening was put on hold. These are just snapshots of things that I’m aware of.

[Manoli]

The 94,000 is the cumulative number. The daily number is around 3800, with 43 new deaths.

Thanks for the clarification.

[Chris Kern]

It seem to take around two months to go through the population and stable off.  So that means that the new areas being hit now will be through the worse in August before the Fall season.

That is one of the most dangerous and misleading assumptions I’ve read.

Yes, of course.  These are the kind of invented "facts" and unsupported predictions, devoid of any evidence or rational basis, respectively, that belong in the crazytalk ("playpen") thread.

But as Tony Soprano famously said, "whaddayagonnado?"

[BobShaw]

Yes, of course.  These are the kind of invented "facts" and unsupported predictions, devoid of any evidence or rational basis, respectively, that belong in the crazytalk ("playpen") thread.

But as Tony Soprano famously said, "whaddayagonnado?"

Covid may well become known as the stupid disease.
When people do what they are told to do and take basic precautions the risk is fairly low, and eventually it goes away.
When they don't then a lot of people die.
"whaddayagonnado?" - fine them heavily.

[Paulo Bizarro]

Covid may well become known as the stupid disease.
When people do what they are told to do and take basic precautions the risk is fairly low, and eventually it goes away.
When they don't then a lot of people die.
"whaddayagonnado?" - fine them heavily.

Indeed, stupid is the right word. Here in Portugal, we have new 300+ cases a day for the past week. Reasons for such:

1. One party in Algarve where the rules (no gatherings of more than 20 people) were not followed. More than 100 people were in a closed space. Result so far: 70 infected. This is very bad for the region, that is trying to open up for tourism...

2. One focus of infection in a caring home in Alentejo - 62 infected thus far, some very old. Not good. I thought by now these cases in caring homes would not happen again.

3. Two days ago, a night party in a parking lot organized in social media brought together more than 1,000 people, near the beach where I live (Carcavelos), near Lisbon. Again, young people not following rules.

The young think they are immune to this disease, but hospitals are becoming crowded with new young patients as a result of these stupid parties.

[Jeremy Roussak]

The young think they are immune to this disease, but hospitals are becoming crowded with new young patients as a result of these stupid parties.

And yet there has been no reported surge in cases in the UK following the very large BLM demonstrations in several towns and cities, at which "social distancing" was certainly not widely observed. Curious.

Jeremy

[hogloff]

And yet there has been no reported surge in cases in the UK following the very large BLM demonstrations in several towns and cities, at which "social distancing" was certainly not widely observed. Curious.

Jeremy

How long from infection to when a person is ill enough to go get checked out?

[Alan Goldhammer]

And yet there has been no reported surge in cases in the UK following the very large BLM demonstrations in several towns and cities, at which "social distancing" was certainly not widely observed. Curious.

Jeremy

I think the same thing has been observed over here.  There were very large demonstrations in Washington DC which is close to where we live.  Lots of people and many not wearing masks.  However, the demonstrations were outdoors and people were moving around a lot.  The best way to measure things is by hospital visits and those have not risen much at all.  Texas and Florida are almost at hospital capacity and in Texas one quarter of those requiring hospitalization are under the age of 30.  So much for the young not being affected.  Personally, I think indoor transmission of the virus is the key.

Michael osterholm who is a well known epidemiologist was on the radio the other day and said going to the beach is probably one of the safer things one can do.

[Alan Klein]

I think the same thing has been observed over here.  There were very large demonstrations in Washington DC which is close to where we live.  Lots of people and many not wearing masks.  However, the demonstrations were outdoors and people were moving around a lot.  The best way to measure things is by hospital visits and those have not risen much at all.  Texas and Florida are almost at hospital capacity and in Texas one quarter of those requiring hospitalization are under the age of 30.  So much for the young not being affected.  Personally, I think indoor transmission of the virus is the key.

Michael osterholm who is a well known epidemiologist was on the radio the other day and said going to the beach is probably one of the safer things one can do.

Weren't a lot of people on the beach in Florida?

[LesPalenik]

Weren't a lot of people on the beach in Florida?

More than on some indoor gatherings. It's way more fun and much healthier.

[LesPalenik]

Florida Virus Spike:

In the last 4 days, each day ended with more than 3,000 new cases. A record-breaking 4,049 cases were reported on Saturday, 3,500 on Sunday, 3,822 were reported Friday and 3,207 on Thursday. In other words, the number of new cases that have been reported over the last four days constitutes nearly 15% of the state's total.

Taking at this time an extended vacation in southern Europe is not such a bad idea.

[Manoli]

And yet there has been no reported surge in cases in the UK following the very large BLM demonstrations in several towns and cities, at which "social distancing" was certainly not widely observed. Curious.

It totally baffles me, that with England still not out of a 3 month lockdown/quarantine, you would find that ‘curious’.

[Jeremy Roussak]

It totally baffles me, that with England still not out of a 3 month lockdown/quarantine, you would find that ‘curious’.

Your bafflement would be alleviated if you were to take the trouble to read the post to which I responded. Paolo linked a surge in new cases in Portugal with attendance at a couple of parties. He may be correct to do so; but if he is, it is curious that very much larger gatherings have not led to a similar surge.

Jeremy

[Manoli]

Personally, I think indoor transmission of the virus is the key (...) Michael osterholm who is a well known epidemiologist was on the radio the other day and said going to the beach is probably one of the safer things one can do.

Thats the view from the majority in Southern Europe. A rule of thumb here is that, in an enclosed space:

• It would need a 5 minute conversation w/an infected person at a distance of 1m  to be infected.
• A fraction of that if the person were to cough in front of you
• And were the person to sneeze - book a cab straight to the hospital.

The safety of the beach is not universally accepted here and mass gatherings are still ‘verboten’ Swimming pools remain closed. What is considered a very safe environment,though, is a beach with a ‘healthy breeze’ in the belief that strong winds disperse the droplets to a degree that eliminates much of the risk.

[Manoli]

Your bafflement would be alleviated if you were to take the trouble to read the post to which I responded. Paolo linked a surge in new cases in Portugal with attendance at a couple of parties. He may be correct to do so; but if he is, it is curious that very much larger gatherings have not led to a similar surge.

Anecdotal evidence shows that the sudden spikes/surges in new infections have a ‘lead-in’ time of some 4-6 weeks before an exponential rise takes hold. Germany and in particular Florida are cases in point.

With an incubation period of some 7-14 days, it would be unrealistic to have expected a surge purely on the basis of the BLM protests.

[Paulo Bizarro]

And yet there has been no reported surge in cases in the UK following the very large BLM demonstrations in several towns and cities, at which "social distancing" was certainly not widely observed. Curious.

Jeremy

I don't know about the UK. What I know is what happening in Lisbon, two weeks after the opening of restaurants, bars, and shopping centers. Young people are getting together with no care for protection measures in those places, and the results are plain to see.

[Paulo Bizarro]

Your bafflement would be alleviated if you were to take the trouble to read the post to which I responded. Paolo linked a surge in new cases in Portugal with attendance at a couple of parties. He may be correct to do so; but if he is, it is curious that very much larger gatherings have not led to a similar surge.

Jeremy

More data from Portugal released this morning:

1. Ages up to 9 - increase of 140% in new cases since reopening.

2. Ages between 10 - 30: 90% increase in new cases.

This surge in younger people was to be expected, but not so higher rates of increase. After all, younger people were home for 3 months, and have now been going out in large numbers, gathering in large crowds with disregard for health measures.

Hospitals in Lisbon at almost at full capacity, even though the cases are for the most part not serious, the danger is younger ones infecting older ones in their families. Losing control in identifying infection chains is the next step.

[Robert Roaldi]

More data from Portugal released this morning:

1. Ages up to 9 - increase of 140% in new cases since reopening.

2. Ages between 10 - 30: 90% increase in new cases.

This surge in younger people was to be expected, but not so higher rates of increase. After all, younger people were home for 3 months, and have now been going out in large numbers, gathering in large crowds with disregard for health measures.

Hospitals in Lisbon at almost at full capacity, even though the cases are for the most part not serious, the danger is younger ones infecting older ones in their families. Losing control in identifying infection chains is the next step.

That's very depressing. Dumping more stress on already overworked health workers is not what we need at the moment. They need some breathing space so they can resume normal health care duties and address the non-Covid backlog.

[Paulo Bizarro]

That's very depressing. Dumping more stress on already overworked health workers is not what we need at the moment. They need some breathing space so they can resume normal health care duties and address the non-Covid backlog.

Indeed. As of today, commerce is back to closing at 8 pm, and gatherings over 10 people are again not allowed.

Thing is, just look at what happenned in Brussels, in the UK... total lack of respect.