COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS

[faberryman]

With the Brazilian President Bolsonaro's Covid-19 re-infection we have now a strong evidence that recovered individuals have limited or no immune protection from re-infection.

Bolsonaro has tested positive twice, about a week apart. It sounds like the two tests are showing positive for the same infection from which he has not yet recovered, rather than him having been infected and recovered and being reinfected. But what do I know?

"Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has again tested positive for coronavirus, he told reporters on Wednesday in Brasilia, suggesting he has yet to recover from an infection first diagnosed last week.

Since catching the virus, the president has said he remains in good health and he would resume his normal work schedule if he tested negative this week. On Wednesday he said he would get tested again in a few days."

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/07/15/brazils-president-tests-positive-for-covid-19-again/

[Alan Klein]

Bolsonaro has tested positive twice, about a week apart. It sounds like the two tests are showing positive for the same infection from which he has not yet recovered, rather than him having been infected and recovered and being reinfected. But what do I know?

"Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro has again tested positive for coronavirus, he told reporters on Wednesday in Brasilia, suggesting he has yet to recover from an infection first diagnosed last week.

Since catching the virus, the president has said he remains in good health and he would resume his normal work schedule if he tested negative this week. On Wednesday he said he would get tested again in a few days."

https://www.mercurynews.com/2020/07/15/brazils-president-tests-positive-for-covid-19-again/

Well, that's nice to know.  We may have more hope for the vaccine then.  I'm still concerned for is partial efficacy.  We'll have to wait to see what happens.

[hogloff]

Well, that's nice to know.  We may have more hope for the vaccine then.  I'm still concerned for is partial efficacy.  We'll have to wait to see what happens.

The yearly flu vaccine is not 100% affective so I'm not expected the Covid vaccine to be 100%.

[Alan Klein]

The yearly flu vaccine is not 100% affective so I'm not expected the Covid vaccine to be 100%.

The yearly flu vaccine is not 100% affective so I'm not expected the Covid vaccine to be 100%.

Will you volunteer to be first in line to take it or will you wait to see how others make out?  How will your plans for living change or remain the same if the effectiveness is 50%?

[hogloff]

Will you volunteer to be first in line to take it or will you wait to see how others make out?  How will your plans for living change or remain the same if the effectiveness is 50%?

I'll travel to parts of the world that take the virus seriously and have it under control. I'd have zero issue traveling to SEA. I would not put foot into mainland USA until there is some control in place. I'd travel to Hawaii as they are very serious controlling the virus.

[Alan Goldhammer]

I was asked to comment about the reinfection of the Brazilian president.  It is important to remember that the genetic test for SARS-CoV-2 does NOT test for clinical COVID-19.  It can only tell you that there is SARS-CoV-2 RNA in the sample taken from the person.  There are a number of papers showing that in some patients recoverable genetic material can show up for days after the clinical symptoms have disappeared.  I don't know how many of these samples have been tested using viral culture systems in the lab.  I seem to remember a couple of papers that tried this and they could not culture virus.  Secondly, I don't know what diagnostic tests were used in Brazil.  Some are better than others with respect to false positives and negatives.  I certainly have not seen anything in the literature that points to reinfection and it would be doubtful so soon after an initial infection and recovery (if in fact he did recovery fully).

[William Walker]

Many will have noticed that my country, South Africa, has made it into the top five countries with the most cases in the world.

We started off pretty well with an early lockdown which bought us time to prepare for what they warned was coming...

An encouraging statistic was our lowish death rate (5940 deaths) @ 100/million as of this morning.

However, I have just read a newly released study that shows the alarming fact that there have been ~17 000 "excess" deaths from the yearly average...!

I am aware that different countries have differing methods for tracking Covid-19 deaths, but, perhaps other countries with high numbers of cases and low deaths do not show the full picture either?

[Alan Klein]

Many will have noticed that my country, South Africa, has made it into the top five countries with the most cases in the world.

We started off pretty well with an early lockdown which bought us time to prepare for what they warned was coming...

An encouraging statistic was our lowish death rate (5940 deaths) @ 100/million as of this morning.

However, I have just read a newly released study that shows the alarming fact that there have been ~17 000 "excess" deaths from the yearly average...!

I am aware that different countries have differing methods for tracking Covid-19 deaths, but, perhaps other countries with high numbers of cases and low deaths do not show the full picture either?

Sorry to hear that cases are increasing there.  I've said for a long time, that the disease just has to take it's course through the population.  NY and NJ where I live went through very bad times.  But now we're doing better.  California who did well early, has now gotten hit very hard.  Some of this is luck.  Also what happens is as soon as you come out of hiding, the virus picks up again. 

[Alan Klein]

Another thing I have to worry about.

a new government study shows that nearly 40% of people who have died with COVID-19 had diabetes.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-diabetes-insight/why-covid-19-is-killing-us-diabetes-patients-at-alarming-rates-idUSKCN24P1B4

[LesPalenik]

Another thing I have to worry about.

a new government study shows that nearly 40% of people who have died with COVID-19 had diabetes.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-diabetes-insight/why-covid-19-is-killing-us-diabetes-patients-at-alarming-rates-idUSKCN24P1B4

Most likely because so many people have diabetes (34 millions in US). Any serious illness (heart disease, cancer, asthma) will make C19 more dangerous.

[Alan Klein]

Most likely because so many people have diabetes (34 millions in US). Any serious illness (heart disease, cancer, asthma) will make C19 more dangerous.

I just went to the dentist for a cleaning. I really didn't want to go.  What good are nice teeth if you're dead?   

Anyway, I had to sit in the car until they were ready.  Then I had to wear my mask and check in.  They checked my temperature and asked me a bunch of questions about how I felt, where I've been, who I was in contact with, if I've been traveling, etc.  Then I had to sign a hold-harmless waiver below to protect the dentist from being sued by me if I got Covid 19.  It didn't build a lot of confidence especially the part about water spray.

[Alan Goldhammer]

I just went to the dentist for a cleaning. I really didn't want to go.  What good are nice teeth if you're dead?   

Anyway, I had to sit in the car until they were ready.  Then I had to wear my mask and check in.  They checked my temperature and asked me a bunch of questions about how I felt, where I've been, who I was in contact with, if I've been traveling, etc.  Then I had to sign a hold-harmless waiver below to protect the dentist from being sued by me if I got Covid 19.  It didn't build a lot of confidence especially the part about water spray.

All dentists are doing that as those are the guidelines from the American Dental Association.  I was also given goggles to wear.  They minimized water spray by asking you to close your mouth when squirting water in.  the also had air filtration machines in each room fitted with HEPA + charcoal filters.

[Alan Klein]

All dentists are doing that as those are the guidelines from the American Dental Association.  I was also given goggles to wear.  They minimized water spray by asking you to close your mouth when squirting water in.  the also had air filtration machines in each room fitted with HEPA + charcoal filters.

I didn't notice the air filters here, I forgot to look.  But they were in my other dentist's office I went to last week.  They both gave me an antiseptic rinse to wash my mouth out before starting.  It wasn't Lysol.  But the bottle was labelled Prof. Trump's Best.

[LesPalenik]

All dentists are doing that as those are the guidelines from the American Dental Association.  I was also given goggles to wear.  They minimized water spray by asking you to close your mouth when squirting water in.  the also had air filtration machines in each room fitted with HEPA + charcoal filters.

Same here in Ontario. I visited my dentist's office 3 times this month and didn't contract any virus. The main damage was to my bank account.

[kers]

On the 23 of may the US had 100.000 covid-19 deaths; in two days they will reach 150.000.
A little more than 2 months later...
The statistics do not look promising ( and don't lie )

[LesPalenik]

On the 23 of may the US had 100.000 covid-19 deaths; in two days they will reach 150.000.
A little more than 2 months later...
The statistics do not look promising ( and don't lie )

The numbers in US keep climbing. On July 24 - 77,253 infections, 1,104 deaths.
And the real numbers are even higher.

[LesPalenik]

The masks are now compulsory almost everywhere. They prevent droplets from flying eveywhere.

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

Most likely because so many people have diabetes (34 millions in US). Any serious illness (heart disease, cancer, asthma) will make C19 more dangerous.

Dutch geneticists made an interesting observation, and were able to isolate a defect in the genetic code of a specific gen (the  TLR7-gen) that lowers the efficiency of our immune system. This appears to mainly affect males/boys, because they only have one X-chromosome. If the defect is there then there is no backup, like with women who have two X-chromosomes. There appear to be something like 1 in 10,000-20,000 males affected, so the issue becomes more significant during an epidemic.

Also, in the Netherlands, after opening up parts of the economy from the lockdown, there are pockets with a rapid growth of the number of infected people, mostly amongst young people (who take social distancing less seriously). The Reproduction rate has risen to 1.29, coming from approx. 0.8, so locally the growth is exponential instead of gradually declining. Partial lockdown restrictions will likely be reactivated.

And this is during the summer season. Autumn and winter season will probably trigger larger outbursts.

[Alan Klein]

Dutch geneticists made an interesting observation, and were able to isolate a defect in the genetic code of a specific gen (the  TLR7-gen) that lowers the efficiency of our immune system. This appears to mainly affect males/boys, because they only have one X-chromosome. If the defect is there then there is no backup, like with women who have two X-chromosomes. There appear to be something like 1 in 10,000-20,000 males affected, so the issue becomes more significant during an epidemic.

Also, in the Netherlands, after opening up parts of the economy from the lockdown, there are pockets with a rapid growth of the number of infected people, mostly amongst young people (who take social distancing less seriously). The Reproduction rate has risen to 1.29, coming from approx. 0.8, so locally the growth is exponential instead of gradually declining. Partial lockdown restrictions will likely be reactivated.

And this is during the summer season. Autumn and winter season will probably trigger larger outbursts.

Well, staying home all the time with nothing else to do might account for that.

[Alan Goldhammer]

Dutch geneticists made an interesting observation, and were able to isolate a defect in the genetic code of a specific gen (the  TLR7-gen) that lowers the efficiency of our immune system. This appears to mainly affect males/boys, because they only have one X-chromosome. If the defect is there then there is no backup, like with women who have two X-chromosomes. There appear to be something like 1 in 10,000-20,000 males affected, so the issue becomes more significant during an epidemic.

I read that paper this morning and it is a great piece of research.  Four boys from two different families.  There have been other genetic findings as well as we are in the golden age of genetic research given all the new tools scientists have.  There was also a paper today that looked at the major mutation that evolved in Europe.  It appears to be more infective but at the same time more sensitive to antibody inactivation.  Lots of interesting things about this virus.