COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS

[hogloff]

It appears that only slows down the spread.  It's like a leak in the plumbing.  You shut off all the [valves=edit], everything is fine.  Once you start opening them again, even slowly, the leak starts up again.  We're controlling the effect not the cause.

Right, you control things openings and then test and track. Just opening the doors and putting the open light on without having other measures gives you what you are seeing today...out of control chaos.

[Alan Klein]

Right, you control things openings and then test and track. Just opening the doors and putting the open light on without having other measures gives you what you are seeing today...out of control chaos.

Many, not all, other countries are having the same problem.  Once the people start moving around, the virus starts spreading again.  The other measures only slow down the spread.  It doesn't stop it.

[hogloff]

Many, not all, other countries are having the same problem.  Once the people start moving around, the virus starts spreading again.  The other measures only slow down the spread.  It doesn't stop it.

Right, slow it down so you have control of it rather than the virus controlling you.

[Alan Klein]

Right, slow it down so you have control of it rather than the virus controlling you.

The problem is, once someone gets sick, they shut down again.  It just happened with baseball here in the US. 

"Coronavirus outbreak in Major League Baseball casts pall over other reopenings
If pro sports teams, with their robust testing and elaborate safety protocols, couldn’t evade the virus, some worry what lies ahead for schools and businesses."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/07/28/coronavirus-outbreaks-baseball-schools/

[hogloff]

The problem is, once someone gets sick, they shut down again.  It just happened with baseball here in the US. 

"Coronavirus outbreak in Major League Baseball casts pall over other reopenings
If pro sports teams, with their robust testing and elaborate safety protocols, couldn’t evade the virus, some worry what lies ahead for schools and businesses."
https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/07/28/coronavirus-outbreaks-baseball-schools/

Well there have been many reports of sports figures being seen at clubs partying it up...so no wonder we see outbreaks in sports clubs. Do we really need these night clubs open? It's all up to the people...if they are idiots, then there is no hope. If people protest about wearing masks in crowded public places, then there is no hope. Strong leadership and guidance is required to inform people...or there is no hope.

[Alan Klein]

Well there have been many reports of sports figures being seen at clubs partying it up...so no wonder we see outbreaks in sports clubs. Do we really need these night clubs open? It's all up to the people...if they are idiots, then there is no hope. If people protest about wearing masks in crowded public places, then there is no hope. Strong leadership and guidance is required to inform people...or there is no hope.

How are they going to prevent spread if they open schools and businesses? 

[LesPalenik]

How are they going to prevent spread if they open schools and businesses?

They could mandate wearing of hazmat suits. Manufacturing the suits would also stimulate the economy.

[kers]

It looks like it has to go through most of the population before it will stay down "permanently".  Even with isolation, it appears that once you start moving around again, it starts to go back up. For example, New York and New Jersey went through their peaks awhile back.  People isolated.  Now we're starting to get back to normal living and the numbers are ticking back up.  Shutting down again will only delay the inevitable.  Once you open up again it will pick up then too.  Unless it totally dies out in the interim.  Pay now or pay later.

So that will take more than 1 million lives of  US citizen and the rest will be locked up in their country. In no country they are welcome without an incubation period of two weeks.
Hospitals will have 3rd world country scenes- the dead are already being put in cold trucks...
Look at that economically.
More specific:  "most of the population"  includes you.

If Europe ( excluding russia) can do it, so does the US.
In the Netherlands economy is rising again; not at full speed, but at say 2/3 ; only large gatherings, discotheques and large concerts are forbidden. Cinemas are 50% occupied.
primary schools are open - the others are still closed.

[Paulo Bizarro]

Many, not all, other countries are having the same problem.  Once the people start moving around, the virus starts spreading again.  The other measures only slow down the spread.  It doesn't stop it.

The objective is to keep the Rt factor <1, prevent rupture of health services, and keep economy going as best as possible. For example, 1 month ago the greater Lisbon area had around 400 new cases a day. With a bit of more control and more efficient and faster contact tracking, we are now down to 200, which is much better.

Until there is a proven vaccine or treatment, we are under management mode. Eventually the virus will go from pandemic to endemic, as many other bugs that are around.

[Paulo Bizarro]

How are they going to prevent spread if they open schools and businesses?

1. Reduce number of students per classroom.
2. Use masks and sanitize hands frequently.
3. Keep distancing.
4. Inform and train people.
5. Monitor and police and intervene if necessary.

Of course there will be resurgence of cases here and there in various types of activities, but the key is to quickly identify positive cases and their contacts, tests them all,and quarantine them. Many countries have reopened now for 4 months and things are being managed. Of course there will always be people that still do not follow the rules.

[hogloff]

1. Reduce number of students per classroom.
2. Use masks and sanitize hands frequently.
3. Keep distancing.
4. Inform and train people.
5. Monitor and police and intervene if necessary.

Of course there will be resurgence of cases here and there in various types of activities, but the key is to quickly identify positive cases and their contacts, tests them all,and quarantine them. Many countries have reopened now for 4 months and things are being managed. Of course there will always be people that still do not follow the rules.

There was an outbreak at a summer resort town here in BC. Some partiers from Vancouver caused the outbreak which resulted in something like 70 infections. More than 1000 were quarantined for 2 weeks that had close contact with these individuals. Seems like the outbreak was squashed. That's how to control it...yes outbreaks will happen when you open up. It's how you handle that outbreak that will determine how well you come out in the end. This requires quick test results, contact tracing and isolation.

[Paulo Bizarro]

There was an outbreak at a summer resort town here in BC. Some partiers from Vancouver caused the outbreak which resulted in something like 70 infections. More than 1000 were quarantined for 2 weeks that had close contact with these individuals. Seems like the outbreak was squashed. That's how to control it...yes outbreaks will happen when you open up. It's how you handle that outbreak that will determine how well you come out in the end. This requires quick test results, contact tracing and isolation.

Absolutely. Various countries have had several "normal" outbreaks in various places and economic activities, it is statistically expected. Similar to increasing the number of cars on the roads,the number of accidents will go up.

Then there have been several outbreaks caused by idiots partying on the street and getting drunk in large crowds. They should spend a few weeks helping out in the hospitals or social services just for good measure.

[kers]

In Spain there are outbreaks in the north east- Catalunya. As a response to that all the British tourists coming from Spain have to take 2 weeks quarantine when arriving home...
and because of that TUI-travel has canceled a lot of flights/vacations from the UK to Spain. Those tourists are vital for the Spanish economy.

I think that is a very bad UK respons. All EU countries are having a different reaction and measures that makes it impossible to travel.
You don't know if you can come back or if you have to be in quarantine for two weeks.
These measures should be orchestrated on EU-level.
(BTW the UK is still worst with corona deaths, also on a daily basis and behave kind of arrogant)

[faberryman]

The problem is, once someone gets sick, they shut down again.

Not really. There were 59,862 new cases and 1194 new deaths yesterday and nobody shut down, so the shutdown threshold must be higher than that.

[Alan Goldhammer]

If Europe ( excluding russia) can do it, so does the US.
In the Netherlands economy is rising again; not at full speed, but at say 2/3 ; only large gatherings, discotheques and large concerts are forbidden. Cinemas are 50% occupied.
primary schools are open - the others are still closed.

As an Ajax supporter, I don't consider things back to normal until the Eredivisie starts play again!

[Alan Goldhammer]

1. Reduce number of students per classroom.
2. Use masks and sanitize hands frequently.
3. Keep distancing.
4. Inform and train people.
5. Monitor and police and intervene if necessary.

Of course there will be resurgence of cases here and there in various types of activities, but the key is to quickly identify positive cases and their contacts, tests them all,and quarantine them. Many countries have reopened now for 4 months and things are being managed. Of course there will always be people that still do not follow the rules.

Correct.  It really is pretty simple.

[Alan Klein]

So that will take more than 1 million lives of  US citizen and the rest will be locked up in their country. In no country they are welcome without an incubation period of two weeks.
Hospitals will have 3rd world country scenes- the dead are already being put in cold trucks...
Look at that economically.
More specific:  "most of the population"  includes you.

If Europe ( excluding russia) can do it, so does the US.
In the Netherlands economy is rising again; not at full speed, but at say 2/3 ; only large gatherings, discotheques and large concerts are forbidden. Cinemas are 50% occupied.
primary schools are open - the others are still closed.

We're not rushing here in New Jersey.  We're opening up very slowly and cautiously.  But the numbers ticked up ever so slightly anyway.  Personally, I'm remaining cautious and have not eaten out or gotten together with anyone but my wife, which is challenging enough. 

Don't count your chickens before they hatch.  You might get the same problem in Europe too.  These arguments are starting to sound like the ones we have about Canon vs. Nikon cameras and o.  Everyone think theirs is the best.  Let's all check back a year from now and compare notes.  You're being too premature.  The virus has not gone away, even in Europe.

[Alan Klein]

1. Reduce number of students per classroom.
2. Use masks and sanitize hands frequently.
3. Keep distancing.
4. Inform and train people.
5. Monitor and police and intervene if necessary.

Of course there will be resurgence of cases here and there in various types of activities, but the key is to quickly identify positive cases and their contacts, tests them all,and quarantine them. Many countries have reopened now for 4 months and things are being managed. Of course there will always be people that still do not follow the rules.

Is that your plan or have you done it?  While you're being optimistic, you really don't know what's going to happen until you start it.  I wouldn't be bragging until schools and businesses have been running a few weeks.  Then check back with us and give us a report. 

[Alan Klein]

So that will take more than 1 million lives of  US citizen and the rest will be locked up in their country. In no country they are welcome without an incubation period of two weeks.
Hospitals will have 3rd world country scenes- the dead are already being put in cold trucks...
Look at that economically.
More specific:  "most of the population"  includes you.

If Europe ( excluding russia) can do it, so does the US.
In the Netherlands economy is rising again; not at full speed, but at say 2/3 ; only large gatherings, discotheques and large concerts are forbidden. Cinemas are 50% occupied.
primary schools are open - the others are still closed.

How to you run an economy at 2/3rds?  Today, it was reported the the US had a second quarter GDP down 33%, the worst in history.  Of course, the US Federal Reserve just prints more money and is handing it out to people not making a salary.  How long can the Dutch do that?  We can't do it much longer ourselves as we'll be totally neutered which may be why some many people want us to keep our economy shut down.  In any case, people have to live and eat.  Me?  As a senior, I could just continue being locked up until they get a vaccine.     

[Alan Klein]

In Spain there are outbreaks in the north east- Catalunya. As a response to that all the British tourists coming from Spain have to take 2 weeks quarantine when arriving home...
and because of that TUI-travel has canceled a lot of flights/vacations from the UK to Spain. Those tourists are vital for the Spanish economy.

I think that is a very bad UK respons. All EU countries are having a different reaction and measures that makes it impossible to travel.
You don't know if you can come back or if you have to be in quarantine for two weeks.
These measures should be orchestrated on EU-level.
(BTW the UK is still worst with corona deaths, also on a daily basis and behave kind of arrogant)

New York, Connecticut, and New Jersey where I live, have issued a quarantine program for visitors from 39 of 47 other states similar to the EU nations.   However, the 14 day quarantine is voluntary, but compliance is expected. (whatever that means).
https://covid19.nj.gov/faqs/nj-information/travel-information/which-states-are-on-the-travel-advisory-list-are-there-travel-restrictions-to-or-from-new-jersey