COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS

[Alan Klein]

Alan Klein, this Colin Robinson of Luminous Landscape (see What we do in the shadows for reference), you suck the life of any topic.

Your self righteous answer is great but it has no connection to the subject in hand which is about the science of Covid and not how good you are to take care of your family.

As for my credentials, I told them to you in the past but as in the past it is too difficult for you to recall, or to figure out my name from my signature/website and my posted photos which have my name. Not that it would make a difference, you'd still be back to your experts are wrong and similar bullshit.
I'm out, will reply to the science questions only.

The thread's title includes "...damage limitation...".  That concerns my family.  When you espouse what we have to do as a society, that's not science but opinion based on many other factors beside just catching it.  It includes economic effects, social interaction, schools, travel, and other human affairs. 

[faberryman]

The thread's title includes "...damage limitation...".  That concerns my family.  When you espouse what we have to do as a society, that's not science but opinion based on many other factors beside just catching it.  It includes economic effects, social interaction, schools, travel, and other human affairs.

Close her up Jeremy. This thread is really going off the rails. I don't think discussing "other human affairs" was what was intended. Of course, we could spend a few pages arguing about it. I may be wrong. It has happened before. Use your judgment. You're in charge.

[Jeremy Roussak]

That's fine, but it doesn't mean Alan has any idea what he is talking about.

He hasn't. It's part of his charm. He has opinions on many topics, and those opinions (usually expressed as assertions of fact, which morph into "opinion" when challenged) float lightly in the ether, free of any factual foundation. It's a recurring feature, on which I've commented before, of his contributions to the threads on this site.

Jeremy

[JoeKitchen]

Actually that's not it means, it was an ironic reply to his questioning. As for them having more authority, I don't think you know how this works. If am in a domain that I know, I can question/interpret what people higher on the leadership scale are doing. If I'm in a totally different field, not so much.

And that stupid quote taken out of context and said a long time ago doesn't mean that an average Joe's opinion is as good as any.


We went over this many times and it's useless to talk to you, I really have better things to do.
I'm here to chip in with scientific things that I know more than most here.

You guys left this mostly alone but now that the other topic forum is closed you just can't contain yourselves.

But you are not in the field of epidemiology, so once again, you are using the fallacy of appeal to authority. 

[Alan Klein]

He hasn't. It's part of his charm. He has opinions on many topics, and those opinions (usually expressed as assertions of fact, which morph into "opinion" when challenged) float lightly in the ether, free of any factual foundation. It's a recurring feature, on which I've commented before, of his contributions to the threads on this site.

Jeremy

My assertions are certainly more factual than Canon and Nikon fanboys who post here, comments on film vs. digital, and whether Photoshop violates the "truth" principal of photography.  If you deleted every opinion on LuLa, there would be around 4 posts a week.

[faberryman]

My assertions are certainly more factual than Canon and Nikon fanboys who post here, comments on film vs. digital, and whether Photoshop violates the "truth" principal of photography.  If you deleted every opinion on LuLa, there would be around 4 posts a week.

Some people might draw a different conclusion. I mean you are entitled to your opinion, but it doesn't make your opinion right. There is a lot of factual info in those Nikon vs. Canon debates, frequently more than I see around here, particularly from certain participants.

[faberryman]

Let me set up a little hypothetical. Let's say you are in a car accident, and your wife wasn't wearing a seatbelt, and was thrown through the windshield, and is lying in the middle of the road in a bloody heap, with possible multiple fractures and internal injuries. So you see and few bystanders and yell: "Can anyone help me?" So one of the guys holds up his hand and says "I'm a doctor, I can help." So what are you going to say,  that's an appeal to authority, a logical fallacy, so I am going ignore that, and go with the guy in the blue shirt on the left, who, when it is all said and done, turns out to be a plumber, who doesn't have even rudimentary first aid skills, and oh by the way your wife dies. I would love to hear you explain your decision to your in-laws at the funeral.

I think there are times in an argument when you can spend about a half an hour going though your education, training, and experience, you know, your seven PhDs in subjects relevant to the issue you are arguing about, and casually point out that your opponent flunked out of junior high and was released from an insane asylum the day before yesterday, prefatory to you setting out your argument in detail, without that being considered an appeal to authority and an ad hominem attack.  I just have this thought rattling around my brain about there being some legitimate uses of appeal to authority in argumentation. Something about an appeal to authority being sort of like introducing testimony, and the appeal to authority objection being sort of like the objection to hearsay. But it has been about twenty years since have looked at the issue in any depth, so I may be mistaken. I frequently am. And before you respond, please outline your education, training, and experience in the area, so I can take that into consideration in assigning what weight to give your response. I promise I won't call it an appeal to authority.

Not only that, but Alan asked Armand's about his credentials, so he was just answering a question, not making an argument.

What credentials do you have to make those choices?

[Alan Klein]

Some people might draw a different conclusion. I mean you are entitled to your opinion, but it doesn't make your opinion right. There is a lot of factual info in those Nikon vs. Canon debates, frequently more than I see around here, particularly from certain participants.

Well, if you look at Jeremy's last post, he discounted my opinions, which he is certainly entitled too.  However, he didn't delete them.  Here we respect other's opinions which of course we often will disagree with.  We wouldn't be up to page 124 if we all agreed with each other.  Regarding Nikon and Canon fanboys, Nikon's are pooh poohed by Canon's fanboys and vice versa.  Neither agrees with the other's assessment and think they're secret spies working for the Japanese.  As a Sony owner, I think they're both wrong.  Of course, Sony is Japanese too.  But I'm not talking. 

[faberryman]

But Joe's opinion comes from vast experience.  He's taken care of his family all his life and knows more about how to do that than you, Fauci, or anyone else.

Right. So if his wife or children catch coronavirus, he's just going treat them at home using his vast experience taking care of them, instead of taking them down to the hospital for treatment by professional healthcare workers with experience treating individuals with coronavirus. Does Joe set his wife's broken arm too. Or maybe treat her cancer at home using his vast experience taking care of her? Of course, Alan, if you want to treat your wife's coronavirus infection, or broken arm, or cancer using your vast experience taking care of her, and maybe reading a couple of articles on the internet, that is entirely your prerogative. After all, your opinion is as valid as anyone else's.

[Alan Klein]

Right. So if his wife or children catch coronavirus, he's just going treat them at home using his vast experience taking care of them, instead of taking them down to the hospital for treatment by professional healthcare workers with experience treating individuals with coronavirus. Does Joe set his wife's broken arm too. Or maybe treat her cancer at home using his vast experience taking care of her? Of course, Alan, if you want to treat your wife's coronavirus infection, or broken arm, or cancer using your vast experience taking care of her, and maybe reading a couple of articles on the internet, that is entirely your prerogative. After all, your opinion is as valid as anyone else's.

Straw man.  I never said that.  And when did you stop beating your wife?

[faberryman]

Straw man.  I never said that.  And when did you stop beating your wife?

But Joe's opinion comes from vast experience.  He's taken care of his family all his life and knows more about how to do that than you, Fauci, or anyone else.

Fascinating.

[Ray]

Just came across the following article.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2818-3#:~:text=We%20find%20that%20all%20risk,to%20the%20Vindija%2033.19%20Neanderthal.

"The major genetic risk factor for severe COVID-19 is inherited from Neanderthals"

I wonder if this could be one of the reasons why countries such as Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, and China have such low rates of Covid-19 deaths; because the populations have inherited so few Neanderthal genes. 

[Alan Klein]

Just came across the following article.

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41586-020-2818-3#:~:text=We%20find%20that%20all%20risk,to%20the%20Vindija%2033.19%20Neanderthal.

"The major genetic risk factor for severe COVID-19 is inherited from Neanderthals"

I wonder if this could be one of the reasons why countries such as Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Vietnam, and China have such low rates of Covid-19 deaths; because the populations have inherited so few Neanderthal genes. 

I've thought that for awhile.  A couple of days ago there was an article that claimed there had been no cases, zero, in Taiwan in 200 days.   How could that be?  Of course, they're an island and maybe they're not letting anyone in.  So if they eradicated it early, there's nothing to spread. But zero?

My other theory is that these diseases seem to originate there.  So the populations have become immune possibly from past infections of similar viruses.  I think more will come out after the American election. 

[LesPalenik]

I've thought that for awhile.  A couple of days ago there was an article that claimed there had been no cases, zero, in Taiwan in 200 days.   How could that be?  Of course, they're an island and maybe they're not letting anyone in.  So if they eradicated it early, there's nothing to spread. But zero?

My other theory is that these diseases seem to originate there.  So the populations have become immune possibly from past infections of similar viruses.  I think more will come out after the American election.

Alan, by now your Herd Immunity theory has been sufficiently debunked and should be put to a rest. Beside, Taiwan had such a small number of infections, so the population couldn't possibly develop any immunity from those few cases. But things are looking up even outside of Taiwan - Trump announced repeatably that the USA is rounding the corner.

[Alan Klein]

[post deleted: political]

Alan, do not try to introduce political discussion to this thread. I will not tolerate it, as you well know.

Jeremy

[Alan Klein]

Alan, by now your Herd Immunity theory has been sufficiently debunked and should be put to a rest. Beside, Taiwan had such a small number of infections, so the population couldn't possibly develop any immunity from those few cases. But things are looking up even outside of Taiwan - Trump announced repeatably that the USA is rounding the corner.

Who debunked herd immunity?  I thought it's still a valid theory.

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

Who debunked herd immunity?  I thought it's still a valid theory.

There is nothing wrong with the theory, but the toll (in human suffering) it takes, and the time it takes to reach that immunity, is unacceptable.

So it has been debunked as a sensible solution.

[faberryman]

Alan, by now your Herd Immunity theory has been sufficiently debunked and should be put to a rest. Beside, Taiwan had such a small number of infections, so the population couldn't possibly develop any immunity from those few cases. But things are looking up even outside of Taiwan - Trump announced repeatably that the USA is rounding the corner.

I thought the White House issued a report from the Science and Technology group that said Trump had successfully steered us through the pandemic, and it was over. Perhaps someone could post something about the science of the pandemic being over or not. I am not a scientist. I can only relay what my next door neighbor who is a doctor told me: where he works the ICUs are packed with COVID patients. That's not really scientific. Probably just some random information to file away somewhere.

[Alan Klein]

I thought the White House issued a report from the Science and Technology group that said Trump had successfully steered us through the pandemic, and it was over. Perhaps someone could post something about the science of the pandemic being over. I am not a scientist. I can only relay what my next door neighbor told me: where he works the ICUs are packed with COVID patients.

It's over for him.  He's had it. 

[Alan Klein]

There is nothing wrong with the theory, but the toll (in human suffering) it takes, and the time it takes to reach that immunity, is unacceptable.

So it has been debunked as a sensible solution.

Leaving aside a vaccine, which only would help, herd immunity might be the only thing that stops it.  After all, with all the precaution taken in Europe, it has broken out again.  So until you get herd immunity (or a vaccine) you can't stop it.  All we're doing is slowing down the spread. 

If you recall, the original plan was to use masks and isolation to slow it down so hospitals had a chance to get the PPE and their acts together and not be overwhelmed with too many cases at once.  At least, that's how it was sold in America.  I don't recall anyone saying these methods would stop it's spread entirely.  So that's what we're seeing now as it continues its march infecting the entire population.  Let's hope the vaccine works and can be produced in enough quality fast enough.  Or nature steps in and ends its reign and it dies out on its own, an unlikely case as it seems right now.