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Author Topic: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS  (Read 86613 times)

Manoli

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #220 on: March 30, 2020, 08:55:53 pm »

Those are basically CPAP/BiPAP machines, and we do have more of those although even more can't hurt.

Spot on, Armand.
from The Times UK

Quote
A non-invasive breathing aid that can help to keep coronavirus patients from requiring intensive care has been developed and approved in a few days.

The device, known as continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP), was created by a partnership between the Mercedes Formula One team, University College London (UCL) and University College London Hospital (UCLH).

They work by pushing a mix of oxygen and air into the mouth and nose at a continuous rate, thereby increasing the oxygen into the lungs. They bridge the gap between an oxygen mask and the need for full mechanical ventilation, during which the patient must be sedated. Using them early can help prevent a patient needing ICU treatment.

Professor Tim Baker, of UCL’s department of mechanical engineering, said: “Given the urgent need, we are thankful that we were able to reduce a process that could take years down to a matter of days.

“We worked all hours of the day, disassembling and analysing an off-patent device. Using simulations we improved the device further to create a state-of-the-art version suited to mass production. We were privileged to be able to call on the capability of Formula One.”

The new design is an adapted and improved version, created via a process called reverse engineering. The Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency gave its approval to the device at the weekend. The first 100 machines are being delivered to UCLH for clinical trials. If they prove an asset they can be rapidly given to NHS hospitals across the country.

Some patients with Covid-19 develop inflammation in the lining of their lungs, and their alveoli, small buds responsible for transporting oxygen into the blood stream, collapse.

Experts from the Institute of Physics and Engineering in Medicine explained: “CPAP feels similar to breathing whilst having your head out the window of a moving car. The extra pressure helps to open up, and keep open, the collapsed alveoli and push oxygen across the inflamed lung membrane. Therefore, CPAP increases blood oxygen more than just giving oxygen using a conventional oxygen mask.”

[...]  “If the patient can stay on a CPAP machine, they can stay on a ward looked after by specialised nurses rather than ICU nurses. A ward can probably look after ten of these patients with two nurses and one doctor. Ten patients in ICU may need five or ten nurses and three to four doctors. The cost and manpower needed in ICU is much, much greater, and ICU is a lot more complex and hazardous.”
« Last Edit: March 30, 2020, 09:04:18 pm by Manoli »
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Jeremy Roussak

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #221 on: March 31, 2020, 03:53:21 am »

TV reports that Mercedes F1/ have designed a simpler design ventilator. Simpler both to manufacture and operate. Not verified and no further details AFAIK.

It's not a ventilator, it's some kind of simple CPAP device. Interestingly, it appears to have been approved by the relevant body (MHRA) with quite staggering speed.

Jeremy
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Paulo Bizarro

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #222 on: March 31, 2020, 05:03:01 am »

My 97 year old mother-in-law is in an assisted living residence close by.  They shut it down for all visitors including my wife, her mother.  Further up in New Jersey, a similar home had many deaths as the virus broke out there.  So old age facilities are taken strong measures to protect the residents.  They all have to eat in their rooms and not in the common dining room.  It must be very tough on many of these people as they're isolated from friends and family.

I hope over there measures were implemented on time. The criticalthing is doing thing preventively, otherwise it is a disaster. The way this thing propagates initially, with small numbers, gives a false sense of security. Just because initailly the numbers are small, they still gorw exponentially and double every 2 or 3 days. This is happening in the islands of Portugal, Azores and Madeira - afew days ago there were 1 or 2 cases only, now it's reaching 50.

The safest area in Portugal is Alentejo province, where people live far away from each other. Even in medieval times, Kings would go there to avoid the plague...

Manoli

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #223 on: March 31, 2020, 06:55:42 am »

Auatralia ... result of adopting timely safety measures

Quote
4,400 coronavirus cases nationally ...  rate of growth in new infections slowing from 25-30% a week ago to an average of 9% over the past three days. Of those, 50 people were in intensive care and 20 were on ventilators, Hunt said. The death toll stood at 19.

Reuters
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #224 on: March 31, 2020, 08:48:19 am »

... What’s clear is countries that adopted strict social distancing and early bird policies are faring substantially better than those who delayed...

How about Sweden?

No lockdown here: Sweden defends its more relaxed coronavirus strategy

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/sweden-coronavirus-approach-is-very-different-from-the-rest-of-europe.html

Martin Kristiansen

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #225 on: March 31, 2020, 08:58:12 am »

How about Sweden?

No lockdown here: Sweden defends its more relaxed coronavirus strategy

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/sweden-coronavirus-approach-is-very-different-from-the-rest-of-europe.html

Yes that’s very interesting. I hope like hell it works out for them. If it does I can perhaps get on with my life. I am 60 this year and don’t feel like spending what remains of life under house arrest. I want to drive the 600km to Durban and swim in the warm Indian Ocean. And that’s just for starters.
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Paulo Bizarro

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #226 on: March 31, 2020, 09:20:17 am »

How about Sweden?

No lockdown here: Sweden defends its more relaxed coronavirus strategy

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/30/sweden-coronavirus-approach-is-very-different-from-the-rest-of-europe.html

Reading throught the entire article, they have implemented already some measures: no gatherings of more than 50 people (it used to be 500), all schools above 16 years of age are closed, older people are already being protected. I may be pessimistic, but the latest data from the link in the article is showing ~4,400 cases and 180 deaths. Of course, it all depends on each country "tolerance" threshold for death tolls, and each country preparedness in terms of health care and ICU capability.

Looking at swedish data from the linin the article, the distribution of age-infected and age of calsualties mimics other countries.

Manoli

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #227 on: March 31, 2020, 09:24:12 am »

How about Sweden?

What about Sweden ?
Social distancing and early adoption ...

Quote
While the rest of Europe imposes severe restrictions on public life and closes borders and businesses, Sweden is taking a more relaxed approach to the coronavirus outbreak.

This apparently laissez-faire approach has attracted criticism both from within Sweden, from a group of epidemiologists, as well from other countries which are locking down public life to curb the outbreak.

“Sweden has gone mostly for voluntary measures because that’s how we’re used to working,” Tegnell added.
He said the agency had explained to the population why social distancing was needed, “and so far, it’s been working reasonably well.”

Sweden has 3,700 confirmed cases of coronavirus and has recorded 110 deaths, the latest data from the Public Health Agency shows.
« Last Edit: March 31, 2020, 09:41:50 am by Manoli »
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Manoli

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #228 on: March 31, 2020, 09:50:54 am »


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KLaban

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #229 on: March 31, 2020, 10:30:33 am »

Yes that’s very interesting. I hope like hell it works out for them. If it does I can perhaps get on with my life. I am 60 this year and don’t feel like spending what remains of life under house arrest. I want to drive the 600km to Durban and swim in the warm Indian Ocean. And that’s just for starters.

My wife and I live to travel and make images: one would be so much the poorer without the other. We are itching to resume normal life but are quite prepared if necessary to be constrained for the rest of this year for our and the greater good.

Rob C

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #230 on: March 31, 2020, 10:38:50 am »

Race to find COVID-19 treatments accelerates
Full article: https://science.sciencemag.org/content/367/6485/1412.full



FWIW, which is probably not a lot, No 5 looks a lot like a coil that went wrong at some stage of the game. Boing, boing, boing - oh! ouch!

;-)

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #232 on: March 31, 2020, 11:03:19 am »

You'd think after WWI  there wouldn't have been WWII. 

Alan Goldhammer

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #233 on: March 31, 2020, 11:17:39 am »

How about Sweden?

No lockdown here: Sweden defends its more relaxed coronavirus strategy
IIRC, this is what the UK initially proposed to do.  Then the Imperial College model came out and they changed to a 'lock-down' model.  Sweden are now seeing accelerating mortality compared to Denmark.  We will see how this strategy plays out.
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Martin Kristiansen

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #234 on: March 31, 2020, 11:25:49 am »

My wife and I live to travel and make images: one would be so much the poorer without the other. We are itching to resume normal life but are quite prepared if necessary to be constrained for the rest of this year for our and the greater good.

Absolutely. But hope does spring eternal in the human bosom.
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Rob C

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #235 on: March 31, 2020, 12:48:56 pm »

Absolutely. But hope does spring eternal in the human bosom.


Quite apart from the fact that many absolutely would spring for a human bosom.

:-(

John Camp

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #236 on: March 31, 2020, 07:48:29 pm »

Using the numbers on the Johns Hopkins website, the US mortality rate is about 2%, or roughly 20 times higher than the average flu. But because of the lack of testing, we really don't know how many uncounted cases there are. I still don't understand the lack of a scientific sampling, which could be done in a few days with a high level of confidence in the result.
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chez

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #237 on: March 31, 2020, 07:59:28 pm »

Using the numbers on the Johns Hopkins website, the US mortality rate is about 2%, or roughly 20 times higher than the average flu. But because of the lack of testing, we really don't know how many uncounted cases there are. I still don't understand the lack of a scientific sampling, which could be done in a few days with a high level of confidence in the result.

And how confident is one with the actual counts of people that contract the yearly flu. I for one if I get a flu like condition during the winter months don't go to the doctor or hospital so I don't get counted.
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #238 on: March 31, 2020, 08:26:49 pm »

And how confident is one with the actual counts of people that contract the yearly flu. I for one if I get a flu like condition during the winter months don't go to the doctor or hospital so I don't get counted.

Small sampling is extrapolated to the whole population. 
You don't have to test everyone.  If you sample a thousand people in the state and 30 of them have the disease, that's 3%. If the whole state has 10 million people's you extrapolate the amount and say that 30000 in the state have the disease.

Jim Pascoe

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #239 on: April 01, 2020, 04:35:08 am »

And how confident is one with the actual counts of people that contract the yearly flu. I for one if I get a flu like condition during the winter months don't go to the doctor or hospital so I don't get counted.

Is that real influenza - or what we call her in the UK - 'Man Flu'.......?  I'm 58 and I don't think I have ever had flu - I have had one chest infection and many bad colds though......
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