COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS

[faberryman]

I guess I didn't make my point clearly, Bob.  If we trust experts blindly as was suggested, then we go to a doctor, he tells us what to do, and then we do it.  No questions. But it doesn;t work that way.  You question the doctor's advice.  You wonder if he got it right.  So you go to a second doctor because you don't trust the expert's advice. Then, the second expert tells you to do something different. Now you're really screwed.

Not really. My recollection is that with your cancer you went to a third doctor until you found an opinion that you liked.

[Alan Klein]

Pure unadulterated bullshit. Here is what the poster said:

"This is not surprising at all.  Countries that took the right precautions early on have seen success.  The same thing is happening in Israel where they had an extreme lockdown and now hardly any cases and kids are back in school.  Israel has a mandatory quarantine on visitors as well. the US could have done much better but people disregard public health measures.  Here is an instructive survey of epidemiologists in the US about activities they would or would not undertake over the next year: https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/06/08/upshot/when-epidemiologists-will-do-everyday-things-coronavirus.html"

Absolutely nothing, zilch, nada about keeping the country shut down.

So now we are at a place where not only do you not read the links in posts, you don't read the posts themselves.

I read his post very carefully.  The text that I bolded is the poster's attempt to provide expert testimony from epidemiologists to continue the shutdown as much as possible.  The underlined word "instructive" is his recommendation to do just that. Most people will understand that interpretation not yours.

[faberryman]

Maybe in Canada where you live.  But not here.  Everyone was thinking about getting infected.  No one really thought about the extreme damage it would do to the economy.  The boosters of shutdown are to blame for much of the economic hardships.  Trump complained breifly, then went along with it.  You're trying to distract from their responsibility of that position.  That's kind but without foundation.

More unadulterated bullshit. The only place that occurred was in your mind.

[Alan Klein]

Not really. My recollection is that with your cancer you went to a third doctor until you found an opinion that you liked.

The went to three doctors.  They all had different advice and procedures.  Each of the three claimed their method was the best.  But that's the point I've been making.  Which expert does the layman believe or trust?  The layman then goes to the non-expets like family and friends.  Or intuits based on feelings and whether he like the doctor's smile or not.  That's what the whole argument is about.  I have no idea what point you're making. Maybe you can clarify. 

[faberryman]

I read his post very carefully.  The text that I bolded is the poster's attempt to provide expert testimony from epidemiologists to continue the shutdown as much as possible.  The underlined word "instructive" is his recommendation to do just that. Most people will understand that interpretation not yours.

Nope. Keep trying. Maybe if you read it to yourself slowly out loud you might understand it.

[Alan Klein]

More unadulterated bullshit. The only place that occurred was in your mind.

Thanks for your thoughtful response.

[faberryman]

The went to three doctors.  They all had different advice and procedures.  Each of the three claimed their method was the best.  But that's the point I've been making.  Which expert does the layman believe or trust?  The layman then goes to the non-expets like family and friends.  Or intuits based on feelings and whether he like the doctor's smile or not.  That's what the whole argument is about.  I have no idea what point you're making. Maybe you can clarify.

Nobody I know behaves like that.

[LesPalenik]

The went to three doctors.  They all had different advice and procedures.  Each of the three claimed their method was the best.  But that's the point I've been making.  Which expert does the layman believe or trust?  The layman then goes to the non-expets like family and friends.  Or intuits based on feelings and whether he like the doctor's smile or not.  That's what the whole argument is about.  I have no idea what point you're making. Maybe you can clarify.

I concur with Alan when it comes to the doctors and their specialties and experiences. Many of them recommend what they always recommended, regardless of the patient's particular condition. I have personally experienced it in several situations. Once, I was having pain in my thigh, and my GP sent me to several specialists in a row - neurologist, sports doctor, rheumatologist, foot doctor. I got Xrays, CT scans, ultrasound, and blood tests. They couldn't diagnose the problem. I went also to three chiropractors, one wanted to crack my back, the second recommended spinal decompression table, and the third electric pulse stimulation. Rheumatologist advised to take Tylenol. Finally, I got to the orthopedic surgeon who diagnosed the hip as source of the problem. Hip replaced, problem solved, 2 months later I was driving, dancing and hiking.

[Alan Klein]

Les,  What about canoeing?

[LesPalenik]

Les,  What about canoeing?

The water is still too cold for swimming, and the mosquitoes too copious at this time. I'm thinking about selling my whitewater canoe, but I'll keep my flatwater canoe. 
If you meant how does the hip behave in a canoe, that's not too bad. I change my position all the time when paddling - sitting, kneeling, kneeling on one knee or the other.
I find that now the tricky part comes when after several hours of sitting or kneeling, you have to land on some rocky shore and balance precariously, one foot in the boat and the other on some rock.

[Alan Klein]

The water is still too cold for swimming, and the mosquitoes too copious at this time. I'm thinking about selling my whitewater canoe, but I'll keep my flatwater canoe. 
If you meant how does the hip behave in a canoe, that's not too bad. I change my position all the time when paddling - sitting, kneeling, kneeling on one knee or the other.
I find that now the tricky part comes when after several hours of sitting or kneeling, you have to land on some rocky shore and balance precariously, one foot in the boat and the other on some rock.

Good to hear you're getting around so well. 

[Robert Roaldi]

A short TED talk (5 min) describing aspects of Corona viruses. I don't recall it being mentioned before, apologies if this is repeat, https://www.ted.com/talks/elizabeth_cox_what_is_a_coronavirus?.

[LesPalenik]

The Worldometer stats show a significant decline of new infections and deaths in USA and Canada over the last few days, but WHO reports a global increase.

The number of corona infections worldwide continues to rise significantly despite relaxation in Western Europe. Over the weekend, more than 136,000 cases were reported within 24 hours, more than ever in a day, said WHO chief Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus. He warned countries not to take precautionary measures because of falling infection rates.

More than 100,000 new cases have been reported over nine of the past ten days, Tedros said. In Africa, Central and South Asia, Central and South America and in some countries in Eastern Europe, the numbers continued to rise. Since the outbreak of the virus in late 2019, almost seven million infections and almost 400,000 deaths have been reported worldwide.

[hogloff]

The Worldometer stats show a significant decline of new infections and deaths in USA and Canada over the last few days, but WHO reports a global increase.

It seems like there is always a drop in reported deaths during the weekend. I guess people don't die as much on weekends.

[Ray]

Since when does best practices advice imply unanimous agreement. I don't know what you're talking about.

I'm talking about your statement which I quoted in my reply, and will quote again, in case you missed it

If all the experts in a field, epidemiology say, agree on a set of best practices, that already represents the condensed opinions of thousands of people who make their living studying the stuff.

'All the experts agreeing' implies unanimous agreement, doesn't it?

[Alan Goldhammer]

Covid 19 is not just an medical issue.  It is also an economic issue.  Would you think we should just take a poll of expert economists as to what we should do to protect the economy?  Or would you want to also include medical experts who would be concerned with protecting the health of the country.  Both are important. The poll Alan G quoted only looked at one side of the issue.  That's not an informed poll.

Firstly, I never said it was an informed poll.  It is a poll of epidemiologist who study disease spread and control for a living.  You can make of that what you will.  There is a published study today that says the US avoided 60 million cases of COVID-19 because of the lockdown.  Let's take my estimate of the Case Rate Mortality of 0.4%.  this means that the US did not see an extra 240,000 deaths.  You might think that is a bad trade off and I might think it is a good one. 

[dreed]

"A constellation of emerging data supports this idea, including COVID-19 outcomes in men with prostate cancer and lab studies of how androgens regulate key genes. And preliminary observations from Spain suggest that a disproportionate number of men with male pattern baldness—which is linked to a powerful androgen—end up in hospitals with COVID-19"

https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/06/why-coronavirus-hits-men-harder-sex-hormones-offer-clues

[dreed]

Offtopic.

A short TED talk (5 min) describing aspects of Corona viruses. I don't recall it being mentioned before, apologies if this is repeat, https://www.ted.com/talks/elizabeth_cox_what_is_a_coronavirus ?rid=2Mm6En3gxNYS&utm_source=recommendation&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=explore&utm_term=watchNow.

Robert, whenever you post a link from somewhere, always remove everything that is after the "?". This is what social media companies use to track people with. They don't just track you, but everyone that clicks on that link must have gotten it from you so ...

[William Walker]

I apologise in advance if this finding has already been discussed! It is certainly the first I have heard of it.

"Coronavirus spread by people with no symptoms 'appears to be rare,' WHO official says"/u]

Surely this would be encouraging news?

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/08/health/coronavirus-asymptomatic-spread-who-bn/index.html

[Robert Roaldi]

Offtopic.

Robert, whenever you post a link from somewhere, always remove everything that is after the "?". This is what social media companies use to track people with. They don't just track you, but everyone that clicks on that link must have gotten it from you so ...

Thanks, that was careless of me. I have edited the post.