COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS

[Manoli]

However, the reason I'm making this post is the hope that some of you 'experts'    can clarify a very puzzling issue, regarding the number of Covid-19 deaths, per million of population, in certain countries.
[...]
Any explanation, anyone?

Ray - You better than anyone knows that until the data can be properly correlated and analysed, your question may be speculated on, but answered, it cannot.

[LesPalenik]

Re: Thailand low infection and deaths - because of Masks and Testing?

[Manoli]

As regards, damage limitation, this latest WHO / Trump 'blame' show is highlighting some unfortunate and unpalattable realities.

There is testimony and evidence emerging that the WHO properly warned, not just the USA, but another 194 nations asc well, of the dangers and pre-emptive actions and protections necessary as far back as mid-January.

Once the deaths subside, I anticipate this topic will be re-visited, with gusto and, in all likelihood to the detriment of a sizeable number of political figures.

[elliot_n]

There is testimony and evidence emerging that the WHO properly warned, not just the USA, but another 194 nations asc well, of the dangers and pre-emptive actions and protections necessary as far back as mid-January.

Nothing is 'emerging' — the WHO's warnings were loud, clear and well-circulated.

[Manoli]

Nothing is 'emerging' — the WHO's warnings were loud, clear and well-circulated.

I was attempting to couch it in diplomatic terms, saving the vitriol for later and, hopefully, another thread.  [/we-need-a-new-choice-of-emojis]

[Ray]

Ray - You better than anyone knows that until the data can be properly correlated and analysed, your question may be speculated on, but answered, it cannot.

Thailand has an excellent health system, and all the news from Thailand I've read mentions extreme lock-downs, wide-spread testing in public for early symptoms, using temperature measurement devices pointed at the head, and severe penalties for those breaching the lock-down requirements.

There are numerous reports of small groups of people drinking together and having fun, being arrested by police. Even walking or exercising on certain beaches is banned, despite the reality of social distancing on a relatively deserted beach which should not pose a problem.

Wearing masks is generally required by law in all public areas, especially in supermarkets where entry is forbidden without a mask.

[Manoli]

Thailand has an excellent health system, and all the news from Thailand I've read mentions extreme lock-downs, wide-spread testing in public for early symptoms, using temperature measurement devices pointed at the head, and severe penalties for those breaching the lock-down requirements.

Not uncommon, indeed essential.
As I said, we may speculate but statistical certainty will need to wait.
Further stats on www.worldometer.com/coronavirus

[Manoli]

Self explanatory.
The Good Law Project is headed by Jolyon Maugham QC.
The original NHS document is attached below.



https://goodlawproject.org/leaked-guidance/

[Ray]

Leaked guidance from an NHS hospital trust reveals doctors are being told they are not required to put COVID-19 on death certificates.

Manoli,
If this is in fact what is happening in the U.K. then the deaths from Covid-19 are likely under-reported, yet the reported deaths in the U.K. from Covid-19 are still very significantly higher than in Thailand.

I've not come across any articles which suggest Thailand is under-reporting Covid-19 deaths, but I guess that could be an explanation. Here's a Wikipedia article which provides details of the progression of the pandemic in Thailand from its first case in January, and the way the government is tackling the problem.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2020_coronavirus_pandemic_in_Thailand

[armand]

Probably overkill for most people on this forum.
Some actual data/literature used in day to day care of Covid patients: http://www.med.umich.edu/surgery/mcccn/

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

1) Current, preliminary (!), results from an ongoing test among blood-donors in the Netherlands shows that approx. (only) 3% have anti-bodies due to COVID-19.
The test population is chosen to be statistically relevant, and involves individuals 18 -79 years of age.

Again, this is an ongoing test and is not the final result. But it does show that building up herd-immunity would take very long under an intelligent lock-down regime. ALSO, having anti-bodies does not necessarily mean that people are immune and cannot become contagious again. It's too early to draw such conclusions.

2) A different research project (by the Radboud UMC) is focusing on finding anti-bodies in nasal secretion. This might help to better understand how the spreading of the virus by asymptomatic people (e.g. children) takes place.

[Paulo Bizarro]

7 days moving average of number of cases, plotted against the number of days after the 100th case. It is clear why some countries are talking about reopening.

Portugal is the black line.

[Alan Klein]

Re: Thailand low infection and deaths - because of Masks and Testing?

In America, the experts were saying originally, that masks should only be worn by people who have the virus.  Now they say it's better if everyone wears them.  Maybe they said that originally to save the low stocked masks for medical workers.  Or maybe they didn't know what they were talking about.  Like I said, liars, damn liars and experts.

[faberryman]

In America, the experts were saying originally, that masks should only be worn by people who have the virus.  Now they say it's better if everyone wears them.  Maybe they said that originally to save the low stocked masks for medical workers.  Or maybe they didn't know what they were talking about.  Like I said, liars, damn liars and experts.

You can't trust anyone, so just go with your gut.

[LesPalenik]

In America, the experts were saying originally, that masks should only be worn by people who have the virus.  Now they say it's better if everyone wears them.  Maybe they said that originally to save the low stocked masks for medical workers.  Or maybe they didn't know what they were talking about.  Like I said, liars, damn liars and experts.

They said it to conserve the masks for the professionals. However, if you make your own mask, you'll be protected and won't be taking the masks from the medical workers.

[armand]

In America, the experts were saying originally, that masks should only be worn by people who have the virus.  Now they say it's better if everyone wears them.  Maybe they said that originally to save the low stocked masks for medical workers.  Or maybe they didn't know what they were talking about.  Like I said, liars, damn liars and experts.

Just stay in the other thread, I promise I'll leave you alone there. You are probably the last person to make any comments about somebody's expertise, first you need to recall for more than few minutes what others are saying.

[Alan Klein]

They said it to conserve the masks for the professionals. However, if you make your own mask, you'll be protected and won't be taking the masks from the medical workers.

So the experts lied to us.

[Alan Klein]

Just stay in the other thread, I promise I'll leave you alone there. You are probably the last person to make any comments about somebody's expertise, first you need to recall for more than few minutes what others are saying.

I don;t need your approval to post in this thread.  Read Les's comment.  He said the experts deceived us putting us in danger so we wouldn't order masks and leave more for medical people.  A noble deed.  But a lie.  So how can you trust anything they say?   

[faberryman]

I don;t need your approval to post in this thread.  Read Les's comment.  He said the experts deceived us putting us in danger so we wouldn't order masks and leave more for medical people.  A noble deed.  But a lie.  So how can you trust anything they say?

You can't. Everything is a lie. Just make up your own reality.

[Chris Kern]

They said it to conserve the masks for the professionals. However, if you make your own mask, you'll be protected and won't be taking the masks from the medical workers.

The initial guidance was indeed intended to preserve medical masks ("surgical masks" and [K]N95 respirators) for those interacting with patients, and that remains part of the current guidance.  The updated guidance, at least in the United States, is based on later research showing that asymptomatic and presymptomatic individuals infected with SARS-CoV-2 are capable of shedding the virus and infecting others.  In other words, the current guidance is for individuals to wear non-medical face coverings in places where it is difficult or impossible to maintain minumum physical distance in order to reduce the probability that they will make other nearby individuals sick.  No inconsistency there, just a change in the protocol based on new evidence.

I don;t need your approval to post in this thread.  Read Les's comment.  He said the experts deceived us putting us in danger . . .

That's certainly not what he said, and I presume it's not what he meant since he never mentioned anything suggesting a motive of "deceit."  And I agree with Armand Tanase that this kind of uninformed speculative chatter should be reserved for the other thread.