COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS

[Alan Klein]

Indeed. As of today, commerce is back to closing at 8 pm, and gatherings over 10 people are again not allowed.

Thing is, just look at what happenned in Brussels, in the UK... total lack of respect.

How does closing at 8pm reduce the spread?

[Jeremy Roussak]

More data from Portugal released this morning:

1. Ages up to 9 - increase of 140% in new cases since reopening.

2. Ages between 10 - 30: 90% increase in new cases.

This surge in younger people was to be expected, but not so higher rates of increase. After all, younger people were home for 3 months, and have now been going out in large numbers, gathering in large crowds with disregard for health measures.

Hospitals in Lisbon at almost at full capacity, even though the cases are for the most part not serious, the danger is younger ones infecting older ones in their families. Losing control in identifying infection chains is the next step.

After how long, Paulo?

Jeremy

[Alan Klein]

Indeed. As of today, commerce is back to closing at 8 pm, and gatherings over 10 people are again not allowed.

Thing is, just look at what happenned in Brussels, in the UK... total lack of respect.

How does Portugal expect to recover staying locked-up?

Bank of Portugal sees unprecedented Q2 GDP slide, 9.5% drop in 2020
Portugal’s economy could tank an unprecedented 15% in the second quarter due to the impact of the coronavirus, bringing the contraction this year to 9.5% –the steepest drop in nearly a century, the Bank of Portugal said on Tuesday.
https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/bank-of-portugal-sees-unprecedented-q2-gdp-slide-9-5-drop-in-2020

[Paulo Bizarro]

How does closing at 8pm reduce the spread?

Less reason to stay out and gather. Fewer places to buy alcohol from and gather.

[Paulo Bizarro]

After how long, Paulo?

Jeremy

Basically since full reopening 1st June.

[Paulo Bizarro]

How does Portugal expect to recover staying locked-up?

Bank of Portugal sees unprecedented Q2 GDP slide, 9.5% drop in 2020
Portugal’s economy could tank an unprecedented 15% in the second quarter due to the impact of the coronavirus, bringing the contraction this year to 9.5% –the steepest drop in nearly a century, the Bank of Portugal said on Tuesday.
https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/bank-of-portugal-sees-unprecedented-q2-gdp-slide-9-5-drop-in-2020

Who talked about locked up? These return to stricter measures is in the 5 municipalities of the Lisbon area.

Commerce and bars/coffees close at 8 pm.
No gatherings over 10 people (back from 20). The police can now fine people.

[Alan Klein]

Who talked about locked up? These return to stricter measures is in the 5 municipalities of the Lisbon area.

Commerce and bars/coffees close at 8 pm.
No gatherings over 10 people (back from 20). The police can now fine people.

Curious.  Are you retired, working, etc?

[LesPalenik]

The situation in China is getting dire. Allegedly, they don't have enough C19 patients to do any research.

China National Biotec Group (CNBG) has won approval to run a large-scale “Phase 3” clinical trial of its novel coronavirus vaccine candidate in the United Arab Emirates (UAE), the company said on Tuesday.

China is seeking to trial potential vaccines overseas because of a lack of new patients at home.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-vaccine/china-to-run-human-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-in-uae-idUSKBN23U2H8

[Alan Klein]

The situation in China is getting dire. Allegedly, they don't have enough C19 patients to do any research.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-health-coronavirus-china-vaccine/china-to-run-human-coronavirus-vaccine-trial-in-uae-idUSKBN23U2H8

Better to experiment on others than your own people. 

[Manoli]

A Visual Guide to the SARS-CoV-2 Coronavirus
Scientific American
”What scientists know about the inner workings of the pathogen that has infected the world”

https://www.scientificamerican.com/interactive/inside-the-coronavirus/

static version:
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/a-visual-guide-to-the-sars-cov-2-coronavirus/

[Manoli]

Scientific American article by William Heseltine
The Risks of Rushing a COVID-19 Vaccine

An effective COVID-19 vaccine also faces several hurdles beyond our control. The older we get the poorer our ability to respond to vaccines. Resistance to vaccination begins early at age 30 and becomes progressively more profound with time. That is especially troubling as those over 60 are the population most at risk. Vaccination of the elderly may sometimes succeed by administering repeated doses and by increasing the potency of the vaccine with powerful adjuvants. But these adjuvants can be especially risky for the very old.

[Manoli]

Virus Mutations Reveal How COVID-19 Really Spread
Globe-trotting humans were the culprits

The world struggled to understand how COVID-19 spread during the pandemic’s first four months, but genetic sequences of the coronavirus reported by laboratories tell the real story—when the virus arrived in each place and where it came from. The sequences, which advance from left to right in the graphic, show that the virus jumped from an animal to humans in China, humans transmitted it to one another within China, then people traveling from there spread it globally person to person. The virus had not mutated significantly as of March 31, 2020; human contact created the pandemic, not a wildly evolving pathogen. Mapping the spread also substantiates actions that could have best mitigated it: faster, wider testing in China; earlier, stricter global travel bans and isolation of infected people; and more immediate social distancing worldwide.

Excellent graphic at
https://www.scientificamerican.com/sciam/assets/Image/saw0620Gscipanzoom.jpg?w=690&h=460

[Paulo Bizarro]

Curious.  Are you retired, working, etc?

I am working, what has that to do with anything? Right now, the company I work for is under a mixed regime: 5 hours in the office, 3 hours at home, on weekly rotations.

[Paulo Bizarro]

Virus Mutations Reveal How COVID-19 Really Spread
Globe-trotting humans were the culprits

Excellent graphic at
https://www.scientificamerican.com/sciam/assets/Image/saw0620Gscipanzoom.jpg?w=690&h=460

Thanks for sharing, quite interesting, even though not really unexpected? Air travel combined with lack of measures results in quick spread.

Now that the borders are opening (at least in the EU) in the race to attract tourists for the summer season, conditions are present to initiate another wave in the Autumn.

Governments never learn: in Portugal we are having a resurgence of cases in caring homes for old people (no learning from 1st wave?), we still do not have a smartphone based tracking app (someone in the data protection control body must be taking their time to decide), and there are no effective controls in airports, besides temperature measurement...

[LesPalenik]

Quite alarmingly, there are now many new outbreaks in a number of countries - Japan, Germany, several states in USA, and Brazil is getting worse. And that is still just the first wave. Meanwhile, Canada just ended the 15-week lockdown and is doing this week relatively well (yesterday we had 326 infections and 18 deaths).

The number of daily infections in Tokyo on Tuesday reached their highest level in nearly two months, while Anthony Fauci, the White House’s top infectious diseases expert, warned that the US was experiencing a “disturbing surge” in coronavirus cases.
Seven US states — Arizona, Arkansas, California, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee, and Texas — reported a record number of coronavirus hospitalisations on Tuesday.

“This isn’t a second wave, but rather a continuation of the first,” said Connor Campbell, a financial analyst at Spreadex.

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-european-markets-surge-in-infections-ftse-cac-dax-080024769.html

[Paulo Bizarro]

Quite alarmingly, there are now many new outbreaks in a number of countries - Japan, Germany, several states in USA, and Brazil is getting worse. And that is still just the first wave. Meanwhile, Canada just ended the 15-week lockdown and is doing this week relatively well (yesterday we had 326 infections and 18 deaths).

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-european-markets-surge-in-infections-ftse-cac-dax-080024769.html

This is simply the result of the reopening. Many European countries have reopened (albeit in a phased way) since early May. With more people on the street, work, etc, it was already expected this resurgence. In Portugal initially we had localized surges in big logistical companies and distribution centres; followed by new surges due to large gatherings of young people with disregard for measures; and now new surges in caring homes.

In some countries, this reopening was coupled with several "crowded events" (political mostly) where the lack of care for health measures was evident. This has aggravated the situation. With the fierce competition for tourists, air travel will simply make things worse.

[Alan Klein]

I am working, what has that to do with anything? Right now, the company I work for is under a mixed regime: 5 hours in the office, 3 hours at home, on weekly rotations.

Knowing whether you work may put perspective on your beliefs.  If someone isn't working at all, has lost their job, and doesn't know how they're going to pay rent and feed their family next month, they may have a different perspective on how quick the country shouldn't open up and get back to work.  On the other hand, if you're like me and my wife, we're retired. We'll continue to get our Social Security and pension checks (I hope).  So for us, we'll stay protected at home more and not want to take risks like a younger person with a family. 

You didn;t indicate whether you continue to get paid fully as you were before.

[Alan Klein]

Quite alarmingly, there are now many new outbreaks in a number of countries - Japan, Germany, several states in USA, and Brazil is getting worse. And that is still just the first wave. Meanwhile, Canada just ended the 15-week lockdown and is doing this week relatively well (yesterday we had 326 infections and 18 deaths).

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/coronavirus-european-markets-surge-in-infections-ftse-cac-dax-080024769.html

On the other hand, as you argued previously, many other medical conditions are not being addressed due to the shutdown, and the economic situation is going to get worse the longer a country stays shutdown.  So there's a tradeoff.

[LesPalenik]

I think, this time most countries are adequately prepared and have sufficient inventory of protective equipment, so they should be able to weather new outbreaks without any closures.

[Paulo Bizarro]

Knowing whether you work may put perspective on your beliefs.  If someone isn't working at all, has lost their job, and doesn't know how they're going to pay rent and feed their family next month, they may have a different perspective on how quick the country shouldn't open up and get back to work.  On the other hand, if you're like me and my wife, we're retired. We'll continue to get our Social Security and pension checks (I hope).  So for us, we'll stay protected at home more and not want to take risks like a younger person with a family. 

You didn;t indicate whether you continue to get paid fully as you were before.

Of course it is a dire situation for many people. Comparing May 2020 with May 2019, there are more 100,000 unemployed in Portugal. tourism sector, especially in the Algarve, was severely hit. But this is a situation where the EU should put up or shut up, as all countries are getting hit.

I am getting fully paid as before.