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Author Topic: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS  (Read 86398 times)

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #560 on: April 09, 2020, 01:08:39 pm »

Sadly, the actual deaths in USA are increasing. This could be due to more actual cases than reported cases. The more infections, the greater the death count. 

The latest models are showing that there will be less deaths than originally predicted when it's all over.  The current high rate currently is due to reaching the peak of the curve. The rate is coming down in NY as reported by Dr. Fauci.  Instead of the 100-200K it looks like 60K. Meanwhile I'm staying locked down in the house except for a run to get groceries this morning.   All pre-ordered stuff paid for beforehand.  A stock boy with mask and gloves came out with all the foods bagged and dropped in in the trunk of the SUV so I didn't have to handle it until I got home.  It was nice to get out.  Strange see all the stores closed for the most part and really light traffic.
https://www.npr.org/2020/04/09/830664814/fauci-says-u-s-coronavirus-deaths-may-be-more-like-60-000-antibody-tests-on-way

elliot_n

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #561 on: April 09, 2020, 01:21:45 pm »

The 60,000 death toll estimate is based on 'full social distancing through May 2020'.
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #562 on: April 09, 2020, 01:31:18 pm »

Not very much, it seems. Your instant retreat from the falsity of your baseless assertion that inhaled fibreglass causes cancer to "I wouldn't breathe fibreglass fibres" is merely amusing.

Jeremy
It's true I can't find studies proving the danger except for one I saw with some doubt that it isn't safe.  But there's no way I'd breath anywhere around where fiberglass could be airborne in little pieces like from insulation unless I was wearing a ventilator mask. It's just asking for trouble otherwise.  Non-dissolvable fibers in my lungs doesn't seem like a good idea regardless of what the studies say.  They're the same people who once said asbestos wasn't dangerous.

elliot_n

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #563 on: April 09, 2020, 01:34:24 pm »

Also, the 60,00 death toll is just for the first wave, which will be over by July.

From the site's FAQs:

Why do your estimates only go until July? Does that mean the outbreak will be over then?

Our model says that social distancing will likely lead to the end of the first wave of the epidemic by early June. The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By end the of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease, so avoiding reintroduction of COVID-19 through mass screening, contact tracing, and quarantine will be essential to avoid a second wave.


http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #564 on: April 09, 2020, 01:40:51 pm »

I just finished my daily review of pre-prints and clinical trials for my daily newsletter.  I came across a very interesting Canadian vaccine trial (I you live in Vancouver, you might be eligible).  It uses a microorganism in yogurt to express the SARS-CoV-2 antigen and is taken orally.  Here is a link to the company website where this is described:  https://www.symvivo.com/covid-19  Very cool if it works!!
I just finished yogurt for lunch.  I feel healthier already.

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #565 on: April 09, 2020, 01:44:48 pm »

I just wanted to make one off-topic aside. Isn't it interesting how our culture seems to highly value ball players, financial hucksters, scions of trust funds, and CEOs by rewarding them with nearly unprecedented levels of wealth but now we're suddenly scouring worldwide for the latest word from unknown researchers who in more normal times have to spend significant parts of their days begging for research grants. I enjoy watching videos of Messi dribbling the ball past 3 defenders and zipping it into the net for a goal. But right about now, I'd trade 10 Messis for one post-doc who finds a drug that kills Covid-19.

I know it's an unfair comparison, apples and oranges. I'm just saying that maybe our priorities may be slightly out of alignment with what matters. But people prefer to play than to work, I don't think that's going to change anytime soon.
Cost of labor is based on scarcity.  There are fewer good dribblers than scientists. 

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #566 on: April 09, 2020, 01:47:12 pm »

Also, the 60,00 death toll is just for the first wave, which will be over by July.

From the site's FAQs:

Why do your estimates only go until July? Does that mean the outbreak will be over then?

Our model says that social distancing will likely lead to the end of the first wave of the epidemic by early June. The question of whether there will be a second wave of the epidemic will depend on what we do to avoid reintroducing COVID-19 into the population. By end the of the first wave of the epidemic, an estimated 97% of the population of the United States will still be susceptible to the disease, so avoiding reintroduction of COVID-19 through mass screening, contact tracing, and quarantine will be essential to avoid a second wave.


http://www.healthdata.org/covid/faqs
So it's either get screwed now or get screwed later.

elliot_n

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #567 on: April 09, 2020, 02:00:46 pm »

So it's either get screwed now or get screwed later.

Yes, everything's changed.
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armand

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #568 on: April 09, 2020, 02:10:19 pm »

Cost of labor is based on scarcity.  There are fewer good dribblers than scientists.

Not really. Fewer that make it to the top. All have a Bell distribution curve. If you look a scarcity only and not also at the value of the service, you have some serious issues ahead.

John Camp

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #569 on: April 09, 2020, 02:11:05 pm »

So it's either get screwed now or get screwed later.

Yes, but you're more screwed now if you can't get into a hospital. If you're screwed later, when the rate is lower, you might get into one where they'll stick a ventilator down your throat until you die.

I'm getting tired of reading about all these possible treatments and vaccines that "could be ready in a year to eighteen months." We need one sooner than that, and media reports were saying "a year to eighteen months" three months ago. Why aren't they now saying, "nine to fifteen months," having subtracted the three we've already gone through?

Whatever happened to that hydroxychloroquine trial that was supposed to be going on in New York. Haven't heard a thing about that, lately. Was that a chimera?

I bought a new guitar, by mail order. It'll probably give me the covid virus, and I'll croak and my wife will never get her money back on it. That's one consoling thought, anyway.



 
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armand

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #570 on: April 09, 2020, 02:23:02 pm »

Earliest estimates I've seen for vaccines are early 2021.

The data for hydroxychloroquine is yet to come, good data is not easy to obtain.

There are treatment options being trialed now, one with immediate impact is with plasma from survivors (it contains antibodies against the virus).

John Camp

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #571 on: April 09, 2020, 03:00:45 pm »

Earliest estimates I've seen for vaccines are early 2021.

The data for hydroxychloroquine is yet to come, good data is not easy to obtain.

There are treatment options being trialed now, one with immediate impact is with plasma from survivors (it contains antibodies against the virus).

I've heard that the plasma treatment is known to work, but its scope is limited -- there are only a couple of treatments available from each plasma draw from a donor., and of course, you have to track down donors, make sure there are no live virus in the draw, etc. We need pills. I understand that it now appears that remdesivir may not help much.
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armand

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #572 on: April 09, 2020, 03:18:24 pm »

Well, most patients get well on their own. So the ratio of survivors to sick patients would be good enough to help the most critical patients. But again, it's still in the trial phase.

Alan Goldhammer

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #573 on: April 09, 2020, 05:04:59 pm »

I've heard that the plasma treatment is known to work, but its scope is limited -- there are only a couple of treatments available from each plasma draw from a donor., and of course, you have to track down donors, make sure there are no live virus in the draw, etc. We need pills. I understand that it now appears that remdesivir may not help much.
The amount of plasma needed to treat all the people who need it is extremely large.  Processing is not the issue as the technology to isolate neutralizing antibodies from sera is straight forward.  The more appropriate way to go is through the isolation of monoclonal antibodies that can be grown in cell culture at large scale.  There are some companies doing this R&D right now (Regeneron is one that I know very well) and there was a pre-print I read this morning that an especially promising antibody that binds tightly to the surface of the virus has been characterized. 

the problem with remdisivier is that it has to be given IV; we really need an oral medicine that can be given early on when symptoms are identified so that it better helps patients at risk.  I've not seen any data that points to an obvious drug right now.  The problem is the clinical trial apparatus is spending way too much time and energy looking at hydroxychloroquine when they need to be trials on any thing that shows good in vitro inhibition.  I also saw a Pfizer release that they have a good candidate.  Unfortunately, it's never been tried in humans so there is no preliminary safety data as there is for all the FDA approved drugs.
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #574 on: April 09, 2020, 05:10:58 pm »



Whatever happened to that hydroxychloroquine trial that was supposed to be going on in New York. Haven't heard a thing about that, lately. Was that a chimera?

World wide there are so many hydroxychloroquine trials going on I've lost count.  I would caution that this is not a wonder drug.  The reported trials to date have been all over the place and some of them were of very poor quality.  The 1/2 life of hydroxychloquine in your body is 22 days!!  this is why the dose for malaria control is so low; the damn stuff hangs around.  It also causes fatal cardiac arrythmias in susceptible individuals.  When my daughter went to Ghana some years ago for a summer music program we refused to allow the use of this drug, opting for a safer alternative and telling her to make sure she used her bed net.  She was in Ghana for six weeks and came back just fine.
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armand

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #575 on: April 09, 2020, 05:16:09 pm »

World wide there are so many hydroxychloroquine trials going on I've lost count.  I would caution that this is not a wonder drug.  The reported trials to date have been all over the place and some of them were of very poor quality.  The 1/2 life of hydroxychloquine in your body is 22 days!!  this is why the dose for malaria control is so low; the damn stuff hangs around.  It also causes fatal cardiac arrythmias in susceptible individuals.  When my daughter went to Ghana some years ago for a summer music program we refused to allow the use of this drug, opting for a safer alternative and telling her to make sure she used her bed net.  She was in Ghana for six weeks and came back just fine.

Who wanted her to use chloroquine for Ghana?
The main reason why it's rarely used for malaria is the attached map.
And this: https://www.cdc.gov/malaria/travelers/country_table/g.html
« Last Edit: April 09, 2020, 05:19:21 pm by armand »
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Paulo Bizarro

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #576 on: April 10, 2020, 04:08:26 am »

There was a theme I came across one of these days on the same idea. You pay C Ronaldo or Messi with more than 1 mil/month and yet now your are looking for answers to researchers payed less than 2k/month.

We need every one, for a normal society to function. Are some salaries exagerated, and others below what they should be? Yes. But Ronaldo and Messi are not payed by governments, clubs decide how much to pay them, it's market at work.

In Portugal, a lot of reserachers that are coming with innovative ideas and good work are working for many years in a precarious situation in several research institutes. I hope they are more recognized after this.

Robert Roaldi

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #577 on: April 10, 2020, 07:41:54 am »

We need every one, for a normal society to function. Are some salaries exagerated, and others below what they should be? Yes. But Ronaldo and Messi are not payed by governments, clubs decide how much to pay them, it's market at work.

This risks going off the topic of the thread. Of course you are correct and I don't begrudge the money Messi makes. He sacrificed years of his life and his career will be short compared to most working lives, and I congratulate him for cashing in when he can. My commentary was more about what the culture chooses to value. When it comes to recognition of science, I'm not an optimist. The boffin caricature still exist in pop culture, but then so do other caricatures. Luckily scientific subject matter is interesting in and of itself so will always attract practitioners. Anyway, there are worse inequities. Everyone is grateful for the drivers who deliver goods to our homes right now, some even get thanks and applause. We'll see how long that lasts, my guess is right up until they ask for a raise.

Yesterday's numbers and graphs on Worldometer seem to show a plateauing in many countries, that is, no decrease yet. Maybe this is not so surprising when it comes to number of new cases, maybe those numbers are higher because there's more testing. But deaths are remaining steady. The USA has been hovering close to 2000 deaths per day for 3 days. Focussing on day to day changes may too fine a granularity however. Many jurisdictions are giving signals about relaxing restrictions, which seems premature to me, but someone has to be first. Everyone else will be watching closely at the results.

Is it still general feeling still that we are asymptotically approaching 1% death rate overall or is it too early to call?
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #578 on: April 10, 2020, 01:35:48 pm »

Each country is taking different measures to face the health crisis and the ensuing economic crisis. EU moves at a slower pace, but something will be done to cater for the economy of the affected countries. In Portugal, where the large part of the economic structure is made of small companies, the problem is a short one - there is no money to pay salaries because there is no income. So the gov. has implemented a program of lay off, people go home temporarily and receive 2/3 of their monthly salary. Credit lines have also been opened to keep companies afloat. At the end of the day, the EU will have to come up with a concerted approach, otherwise it will be deemed as useless.

So yes, unemployment will go up, country debts will go up (Portugal's debt is 120% of GIP), but we will survive. I think it will be become clear in the coming weeks how policy makers will react, but the signs are out already. As for young people, they will survive too and adapt. Right now, I see a lot of young people who can not mourn their dead family members.

IMO, health comes first, and the economic balance will fall in naturally after that.
Today's news show 500 billion Euros to help.  But German and other countries are refusing to pay for bonds like I said in a previous post. They're going to issue bonds, termed corona bonds.  A perfect name that will mean the end of the EU currency.  "German Chancellor Angela Merkel, backed by the leaders of Austria and the Netherlands, have said no. They have long opposed the issuance of debt at the EU level for fear that it would effectively mean their taxpayers are underwriting spending by poorer member states."  Well, Germans aren;t Italians even if they're all Europeans. 

""A perceived lack of solidarity in the worst peacetime crisis in living memory could be dynamite for the longer-term cohesion of the eurozone and the European Union," they wrote after the deal was announced."

Of course, America won't be helping because we'll be in our own recession and not buying as many European products.  Heck, we're still looking for toilet paper. What a mess.

"Europe has a rescue package. But who's going to pay for its coronavirus recovery?"
https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/10/business/europe-coronavirus-stimulus/index.html

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #579 on: April 10, 2020, 01:44:21 pm »

 
Not really. Fewer that make it to the top. All have a Bell distribution curve. If you look a scarcity only and not also at the value of the service, you have some serious issues ahead.
Well, good dribblers have more value to the team than do mosts scientists have to their companies.  They earn more money for it.  How much money would you pay the dribbler if he quit his job and went to work for Pfizer as a scientist?
« Last Edit: April 10, 2020, 01:52:14 pm by Alan Klein »
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