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Author Topic: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS  (Read 86366 times)

degrub

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #660 on: April 12, 2020, 09:52:18 am »

major cities in my state are on the steep part of the curve, maybe 3-4 weeks behind NYC
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Guillermo Luijk

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #661 on: April 12, 2020, 10:09:56 am »

I think the best approximation is to use the Covid-19 tally and add the difference in deaths between last years average and this years deaths. Sure these extra deaths won't be totally Covid-19'caused, but I would think it would be a very close approximation.

I agree, that calculus can be even more accurate than COVID-19 specifically accounted deaths because it really represents the incremental effect of COVID-19 over BAU expected deaths (i.e. someone who was going to die on those days regardless of the fact he got COVID-19). The estimated expected number of deaths becomes a control group.

Red: real deaths
Black: expected deaths

Daily deaths in Spain:


Regards
« Last Edit: April 12, 2020, 10:13:07 am by Guillermo Luijk »
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #662 on: April 12, 2020, 02:03:14 pm »

[...]
Is it still general feeling still that we are asymptotically approaching 1% death rate overall or is it too early to call?

Hard to say where it will stabilize, with too few tests. The current expected range seems to be from 0.3 to 1%.
One can only hope it's closer to the lower number.

There is still a lot to be learned about this novel virus.
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Guillermo Luijk

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #663 on: April 12, 2020, 02:29:05 pm »

Hard to say where it will stabilize, with too few tests. The current expected range seems to be from 0.3 to 1%.
One can only hope it's closer to the lower number.

There is still a lot to be learned about this novel virus.
I made a simple infection model based on Susceptible -> Infected -> Recovered/Death status through probabilities, and manually adjusted it to fit real death people data in the best possible way.
The social distancing period (=home confinement for most of the population) assumed was 14-mar -> 10-may.
Most parameters (number of contacts pre/post confinement, probability of death one infected, incubation and death periods,...) were forced by the real data from coronavirus deaths in Spain:



The main insights after adjusting the model were:
  • Ro=2,1 before social distancing, Ro=0,8 during social distancing
  • Mortality rate over total infected population: 0,6%
  • 6 days of incubation, 10 days to death

And the main outputs:
  • 4M of the total population (8,5%) went through the virus after social distancing
  • Infection peak of 2,4M on 25-mar
  • 24K total expected deaths after social distancing (currently 16K)





The most critical figure in my opinion is the only 8,5% of infected population after social distancing. It's very low to expect any herd inmunity.
I hope to be wrong but with such a % we cannot go back to our previous social and professional life, otherwise the problem could be back by the end of June (assuming no vaccine and no coronavirus sensitivity to higher temperatures):



The whole article (including a link to the Excel model) can be Google-translated into English: https://www.datosimagensonido.com/2020/04/prediccion-de-evolucion-del-coronavirus.html

Regards

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #664 on: April 12, 2020, 05:43:45 pm »

Are you kidding? The curve shapes may be similar but the actual numbers are different. The countries that started earlier are experiencing less suffering.
America is the third largest country in population after China and India.  Also, 60% of the cases were in the crowded NYC Metro area which had huge numbers of foreign visitors.  In any case, the graph is the same except for China and Taiwan, maybe Korea.  If China didn't lie to the world and get WHO to swear to it, the whole world would have started earlier.  Why don't you have any criticism for China?

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #665 on: April 12, 2020, 06:29:35 pm »

America is the third largest country in population after China and India.  Also, 60% of the cases were in the crowded NYC Metro area which had huge numbers of foreign visitors.  In any case, the graph is the same except for China and Taiwan, maybe Korea.  If China didn't lie to the world and get WHO to swear to it, the whole world would have started earlier.  Why don't you have any criticism for China?

Wrong thread.
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #666 on: April 12, 2020, 07:03:29 pm »

Sobering information from the Dutch Outbreak Management Team.

It is unclear whether people who had only mild symptoms or were asymptomatic, created enough antibodies to become immune.
Serum tests show varying amounts of antibodies in those who have recovered. It is unclear whether those individuals with low counts can be reinfected.
More testing and research is being done to find an answer.

Potentially positive news, but still the subject of early clinical tests. Doctors in the Radboud UMC hospital observed a pattern in those who got really ill and had to be committed to the ICU. Patients show a fluid buildup coming from damaged (by the virus) tiny arteries/veins, capillaries, leaking into the pulmonary alveolus where the infection spreads and affects the lungs. These doctors have seen a similar fluid buildup in other diseases, for which there is working medication. Tests on a few patients look encouraging, so further testing has started on 20 patients. It's too early to declare victory, but it would help those who are seriously affected to improve their survival rate.

This suppression of symptoms is not a cure but is still important because each day in the ICU roughly equates to one month of revalidation if patients survive. People who have been kept in a coma for such a long period, lose a lot of muscle mass and need to learn to swallow again, learn to walk, and can suffer from mental issues.

Quote
Theoretical explanation: Substance gets free play

This is the theory: The coronavirus enters the lungs via the so-called ACE2-receptor, an enzyme on organs. ACE2 has an important function that until now has remained out of the picture in coronavirus research. The enzyme keeps the substance bradykininia under control. This is important, because with too much bradykininia blood vessels start leaking. But that mechanism doesn't seem to work well in people with a corona infection.

We have good reason to believe that this Covid-19 infection has exactly this effect: ACE2 receptors disappear from the lung cells when the virus is brought in, giving bradykinine free rein and the small blood vessels start leaking massively at the site of infection,' says Frank van de Veerdonk, internist-infectiologist in the Radboudumc.

Van de Veerdonk and colleagues are familiar with this phenomenon from another, very rare clinical picture: hereditary angioedema. People with this disease can suddenly swell hands, feet, abdomen or face.

First treatments
Radboudumc researchers are now setting up the first treatments with Icatibant, a drug that can inhibit the effects of bradykinine. For every good idea must first of all be proven. On a national level, we are in talks with the UMC Utrecht, on an international level with ReMap-Cap and others. We hope that this will give us a definitive answer as soon as possible on the insights we have now launched.

Translated with www.DeepL.com/Translator (free version)

« Last Edit: April 12, 2020, 07:06:51 pm by Bart_van_der_Wolf »
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LesPalenik

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #667 on: April 13, 2020, 02:58:48 am »

Coronavirus is not a problem if you get into your nineties.

Quote
When 97-year-old Brazilian Gina Dal Colleto was hospitalized on April 1 with coronavirus symptoms, few could have thought she would survive the deadly virus.

On Sunday, however, Dal Colleto was pushed in a wheelchair out of Sao Paulo’s Vila Nova Star hospital to applause from doctors and nurses, becoming the oldest known survivor of COVID-19 in Brazil, the Latin American country worst-hit by the outbreak.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-healthcare-coronavirus-brazil-survivo/great-grandmother-97-becomes-brazils-oldest-coronavirus-survivor-idUSKCN21U0R3
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Jeremy Roussak

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #668 on: April 13, 2020, 04:09:22 am »

Coronavirus is not a problem if you get into your nineties.

Of all the fatuous comments I have read in this and other threads, I think that takes the biscuit.

Jeremy
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BobShaw

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #669 on: April 13, 2020, 08:43:26 pm »

Are you kidding? The curve shapes may be similar but the actual numbers are different. The countries that started earlier are experiencing less suffering.
Or to put it another way. for some countries the first step in the crisis was anticipation and for others it was denial.

From what I have seen of China their steps were complete military enforced lockdown, teams of people in hazmat suits walking the streets spraying and drones flying overhead spraying. A lot of countries were not as drastic but most are now on the downhill part of the curve and planning for relaxing restrictions. Of the global 84,000 new cases a day though, one country has 31,000.
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Manoli

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #670 on: April 13, 2020, 09:24:14 pm »

Or to put it another way. for some countries the first step in the crisis was anticipation and for others it was denial.

Denial might be a slight exaggeration but they certainly didn't anticipate the degree of contagion nor, in some cases, did they take appropriate preventive measures. Too early to make a final statistical assesment on how effective each country's choice and implementation were until a clear plateau is reached.  The UK is approximately 7 days behind France and 14 days behind Italy. We're not there yet ...


Australian data (columns as above) : 6400 / 61 / 251 / 2

*Edit: added chart and tabular data from The Times (UK) dd 14-April
« Last Edit: April 14, 2020, 04:53:56 am by Manoli »
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armand

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KLaban

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #672 on: April 14, 2020, 07:27:07 am »

I am heartened by the timely measures Greece put in place to protect their people.

How Greece is beating coronavirus

My wife and I long for a time when we can once more hug and kiss our many dear Greek friends.

Robert Roaldi

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #673 on: April 14, 2020, 09:05:17 am »

Short interview regarding the newly developed "Cape Breton" ventilator https://youtu.be/fXeLVC5zlhQ.
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armand

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #674 on: April 14, 2020, 11:33:30 am »

I am heartened by the timely measures Greece put in place to protect their people.

How Greece is beating coronavirus

My wife and I long for a time when we can once more hug and kiss our many dear Greek friends.

Alex Patelis, Mitsotakis’ economics adviser, said: “There are problems you can solve through spin and others that require truth and transparency. It was very clear we needed experts and we needed to listen to them. That said, Greeks have been through crisis; they know what it is. I think that also enabled them to adapt and be stoic.”

Textbook. I hope it works for them.

Manoli

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #675 on: April 14, 2020, 11:58:17 am »

I am heartened by the timely measures Greece put in place to protect their people.
My wife and I long for a time when we can once more hug and kiss our many dear Greek friends.

Hopefully, sooner rather than later.

Source of some amusement that such a naturally unruly nation so quickly adapted to the interim regime (aka lockdown). Not that 'persuasion' wasn't necessary, more so with the clerics than the populace.

Quote
Corfu prosecutor charges bishop, mayor over church service, holy communion
 
Corfu prosecutor Lambridis has drawn up charges against Bishop Nektarios of Corfu, the mayor of central Corfu, the head of the municipal council and clerics and worshippers who participated in a service held at the Aghios Spyridon church in Corfu Town on Saturday . Three people who attended the service - two men and a woman - were reportedly given holy communion, despite the particularly high risk the ritual poses for the spread of the virus.

Lambridis, who is a court of first instance prosecutor said the case file has been sent to the local police and will be executed in the context of the so-called "aftoforo" law which permits a swift hearing if an arrest is made within 48 hours of an alleged crime. The government had banned all church services as part of its response to the Covid-19 pandemic. Services will be permitted this week in the runup to Orthodox Easter, for clerics but only behind closed doors, without the presence of worshippers, with the services to be broadcast online.

In response to the above , wonderful one-liner from the Prime Minister in his address to the nation last night:
"Our faith is not in danger, the faithful are"
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #676 on: April 14, 2020, 12:04:07 pm »

Hopefully, sooner rather than later.

Source of some amusement that such a naturally unruly nation so quickly adapted to the interim regime (aka lockdown). Not that 'persuasion' wasn't necessary, more so with the clerics than the populace.

In response to the above , wonderful one-liner from the Prime Minister in his address to the nation last night:
"Our faith is not in danger, the faithful are"

We got it.  You've been repeating your point for 34 pages.  Stay home. Well, the whole world is staying home.  Now what?  What is Greece doing now to get the tourists back? When are the Germans coming back to sip their ouzo and cafe?  What should the US do?  The rest of the world? 

Manoli

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #677 on: April 14, 2020, 12:34:56 pm »

We got it.  You've been repeating your point for 34 pages. 

Not 34 pages, but post #644.

**/off-topic**

Now what?  What is Greece doing now to get the tourists back?

Quote
Greece from Home’ initiative seen as ‘brilliant’ response to crisis

Bill Gates has hailed recent initiatives developed to adapt to the “new normal” imposed by the coronavirus crisis, such as teleworking and virtual software innovations, with emotional intelligence consultant Justin Bariso arguing that a platform launched by the Greek National Tourism Organization is one such “brilliant” response to the challenges of the crisis indicated by the US tech mogul.

“The tourism industry is definitely one of the hardest hit by the pandemic. But maybe you can learn from ‘Greece from Home,’ a brilliant initiative by the Greek National Tourism Organization, in cooperation with Google,” Justin Bariso wrote in Inc magazine following an interview by LinkedIn Editor-in-Chief Daniel Roth with Gates on world responses to the pandemic and the economic and social recovery that needs to come after.

The “Greece from Home” platform was launched at the start of April by the GNTO and Marketing Greece, with the support of Google, and is aimed at reinforcing the country’s positive image during the Covid-19 pandemic by helping people around the world stay in touch with Greek culture and be inspired by the country’s attractions.

The initiative is also aimed at tourism professionals, helping them enhance their digital skills with the help of Google via the “Grow Greek Tourism Online” seminars, which are organized with the support of the Greek Ministry of Tourism. More than 1,000 people signed up to participate in the group seminars in the first 10 days of their launch.

“This site is also built on the principle of content marketing: using great online content to create a relationship with potential customers. Through YouTube videos and other content, creators give viewers a chance to tour archeological sites and museums, experience beautiful scenes of nature, and even take ‘walking’ tours or visit restaurants – all virtually, of course,” said Bariso of the initiative.

“Greece from Home” further leverages YouTube, with videos featuring popular figures including tennis ace Stefanos Tsitsipas and NBA star Giannis Antetokounmpo.

“Done right, your content might be able to bring in revenue through ads or product sales. And at the very least, it’s a way to keep in touch with your audience until they are willing (and able) to travel again,” he added.
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KLaban

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #678 on: April 14, 2020, 12:54:06 pm »

Manoli, armand, many thanks for your contributions regarding Greece, they were much appreciated.

Keith

Paulo Bizarro

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #679 on: April 14, 2020, 01:06:59 pm »

We got it.  You've been repeating your point for 34 pages.  Stay home. Well, the whole world is staying home.  Now what?  What is Greece doing now to get the tourists back? When are the Germans coming back to sip their ouzo and cafe?  What should the US do?  The rest of the world?

Now what: keep people home until the conditions are there that allow slow reopening. Several European countries are already slowly coming back to life, like in Austria, Denmark, Norway, Poland, Check Republic, Spain, and Italy. Such decisions always carry a risk, so it is better to listen to the specialists and continue to implement safety measures.

Now what: we get ready to face the economic crisis. Portugal will have a drop of the GDP of 8%, the highest in 100 years. Other countries will farebetter, others worse. But all will suffer. Estimate is that Portugalwill go back to 2019 results in 2021.

Getting tourists back: like Greece, Portugal has a lot of income from tourism. We will face a drop no doubt, but we started getting ready already:

https://econews.pt/2020/03/22/coronavirus-turismo-de-portugal-launches-campaign-this-is-the-time-to-stop/

Right now there is another campaign to convince portuguese to do tourism in Portugal. A win-win situation, as in Greece, because for at least 1 year no one will feel like taking avacation abroad.

What should the US do: what has been shown to work in other countries, in terms of the science aspect. Other parts are OT.

Rest of the World: as above.

Bottom line: whatever measures are taken, there is a risk associated with them. Unfortunately, risk management is something that is often not well understood.
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