COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS

[armand]

Frank I think you're being political.  You know that's a no-no.  On the other hand, I think alcohol as a disinfectant has wonderful possibilities to clear the virus out of your throat membranes.  I wonder how effective a rum and Coke might be?

People need to be more critical and not jump at every senseless thing said in the wild.

The virus is already in the cells. To destroy you have to get rid of those cells while making sure it doesn't go somewhere else in the process. So you can enjoy your alcoholic drink but it won't do much for the virus. A far stretched use would be if you have been just exposed to take a shot of 60%+ immediately after each event; I don't see this going too well.

Regarding the injection of alcohol or UV light inside to kill the virus, that's just DUMB.

[Alan Klein]

An interesting new study, published yesterday by researchers at Imperial College (London), models the efficacy of various testing strategies for controlling COVID-19 infections.  Bottom line: testing healthcare workers is a high priority for this high-risk group while testing of the general population probably does not confer a significant incremental benefit in preventing the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus over self-isolation of symptomatic individuals and contact-tracing.

It appears this type of model could help those designing testing regimes to determine how best to efficiently deploy constrained resources, but presumably widespread testing of the general population is still necessary to make informed conditions about when and where it is safe to ease current governmental restrictions.

With governors starting to open up their states, we're going to find out soon which methods are better.  The other variable is herd immunity.  Unless the virus dies out on its own like the regular flu, it probably will continue to move through the community infecting most people.  How fast and how extensive depends on how fast things are opened and isolation is reduced.  There's a lot of speculation.  But actual results from governor actions will tell as more.  Me?  I'm staying hidden at home for the most part until it plays out.  Fortunately, I don't work.  So while being old makes me more vulnerable, it also means I can take less chances. 

[Alan Klein]

People need to be more critical and not jump at every senseless thing said in the wild.

The virus is already in the cells. To destroy you have to get rid of those cells while making sure it doesn't go somewhere else in the process. So you can enjoy your alcoholic drink but it won't do much for the virus. A far stretched use would be if you have been just exposed to take a shot of 60%+ immediately after each event; I don't see this going too well.

Regarding the injection of alcohol or UV light inside to kill the virus, that's just DUMB.

So active alcoholics might be more immune to this disease than sober folks? That's an interesting concept.  So let's carry that one step forward.  Let's say you're not an alcoholic but you're outside and someone coughs in your face.  So you pull out your flask of Covid-12 Lite and take a swig and rinse your mouth and throat.  Then spit it out in the street.  Maybe you have a eyedropper of antiseptic that doesn't hurt the eyes.  But it's strong enough to to kill virus.  If alcohol can kill the virus on a doorknob, a good rinse could kill it in your mouth before it takes root.  Is that far fetched?  I don;t think so.  But brainstorming is about throwing out wild ideas to get the group thinking about how to resolve difficult problems.

[Moderator's edit: I have deleted spurious and irrelevant political comment from this post. Alan, you are most definitely on a final warning. Do not do this again.]

[degrub]

a warm salt water gargle would be more effective i think.
To use ethanol, you need over 70 % e.g. >140 proof. So a gargle with everclear..... and no evidence that it works better than salt.

[armand]

So active alcoholics might be more immune to this disease than sober folks? That's an interesting concept.  So let's carry that one step forward.  Let's say you're not an alcoholic but you're outside and someone coughs in your face.  So you pull out your flask of Covid-12 Lite and take a swig and rinse your mouth and throat.  Then spit it out in the street.  Maybe you have a eyedropper of antiseptic that doesn't hurt the eyes.  But it's strong enough to to kill virus.  If alcohol can kill the virus on a doorknob, a good rinse could kill it in your mouth before it takes root.  Is that far fetched?  I don;t think so.  But brainstorming is about throwing out wild ideas to get the group thinking about how to resolve difficult problems.

[Moderator's edit: I have deleted spurious and irrelevant political comment from this post. Alan, you are most definitely on a final warning. Do not do this again.]

Unlikely, but I'll humor you and get one step further. First, I'm not convinced that you'll find something good enough for the eyes. Second, what do you do with the nose?

[Chris Kern]

The U.S. federal Food and Drug Administration published a special alert today warning physicians and patients about safety concerns regarding the outpatient use of the drugs hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine that President Trump previously proposed as a possible "game-changer" for treating COVID-19 infections.

The FDA is aware of reports of serious heart rhythm problems in patients with COVID-19 treated with hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine, often in combination with azithromycin and other QT prolonging medicines.  We are also aware of increased use of these medicines through outpatient prescriptions.  Therefore, we would like to remind health care professionals and patients of the known risks associated with both hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine.  We will continue to investigate risks associated with the use of hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine for COVID-19 and communicate publicly when we have more information.

While these drugs have not been shown to be effective in controlled studies, apparently there is some anecdotal clinical evidence of their utility and physicians may still use them in the United States hospitals under a federal Emergency Use Authorization.

They are being studied in clinical trials for COVID-19, and we authorized their temporary use during the COVID-19 pandemic for treatment of the virus in hospitalized patients when clinical trials are not available, or participation is not feasible, through an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA).

[armand]

The U.S. federal Food and Drug Administration published a special alert today warning physicians and patients about safety concerns regarding the outpatient use of the drugs hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine that President Trump previously proposed as a possible "game-changer" for treating COVID-19 infections.

While these drugs have not been shown to be effective in controlled studies, apparently there is some anecdotal clinical evidence of their utility and physicians may still use them in the United States hospitals under a federal Emergency Use Authorization.

There are multiple ongoing trials but the current in hospital experience is not good so in many places they are only used in trials.
This a retrospective study, not vetted yet, which shows harm: https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.16.20065920v2

[Alan Klein]

Unlikely, but I'll humor you and get one step further. First, I'm not convinced that you'll find something good enough for the eyes. Second, what do you do with the nose?

That's a good point.  But not every remedy protects everywheres.  After all, people gargle with Listerine or as someone mentioned salt water.  Those don't treat the nose either.  But both afford some protection.  So a double Red Heart Rum (151 proof - 75.5% alcohol) and a touch of coke might kill germs in your mouth and pharynx and give you a nice buzz at the same time.

[Alan Klein]

In my town in NJ, 38 or 76% of the 50 people who have died from Covid 19 were residents of long-term care facilities.

[Robert Roaldi]

Interesting UK report about using sleep disorder equipment in treating Covid-19, https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-hospital-cuts-covid-19-death-rates-with-black-boxes-for-sleep-disorder-11977789.

[Robert Roaldi]

That's a good point.  But not every remedy protects everywheres.  After all, people gargle with Listerine or as someone mentioned salt water.  Those don't treat the nose either.  But both afford some protection.  So a double Red Heart Rum (151 proof - 75.5% alcohol) and a touch of coke might kill germs in your mouth and pharynx and give you a nice buzz at the same time.

Do we know how much protection gargling with those actually provides? The example you gave of someone coughing in your face is pretty specific, I can't see how it would apply generally. Most of the time, people have no idea what they've just breathed in.

Do we know how long it takes for the virus to migrate from a droplet into a cell once the droplet is deposited on throat tissue? Is it a second, a minute, 5 minutes, I have no clue. Once it's inside a cell, I don't see how gargling would accomplish anything.

[Alan Klein]

Do we know how much protection gargling with those actually provides? The example you gave of someone coughing in your face is pretty specific, I can't see how it would apply generally. Most of the time, people have no idea what they've just breathed in.

Do we know how long it takes for the virus to migrate from a droplet into a cell once the droplet is deposited on throat tissue? Is it a second, a minute, 5 minutes, I have no clue. Once it's inside a cell, I don't see how gargling would accomplish anything.

I have no idea.  Neither do the experts, yet. Just as they're now discovering that ventilators are killing more people than some less intrusive methods, so many of the specifics about this disease are just guesstimates at this time.  That's why all the fervent demands of what people should do are theory or just plain guesses.  In a few months, we'll have much better understanding of how and where it started, how it spread, to what degree, what measures for cure are best, medicines and vaccines, and how to prepare for future outbreaks.  We'll also have to face the economic damage the disease is doing and how to recover which may turn out to be a more daunting task.

[Robert Roaldi]

I have no idea.  Neither do the experts, yet. Just as they're now discovering that ventilators are killing more people than some less intrusive methods, so many of the specifics about this disease are just guesstimates at this time.  That's why all the fervent demands of what people should do are theory or just plain guesses.  In a few months, we'll have much better understanding of how and where it started, how it spread, to what degree, what measures for cure are best, medicines and vaccines, and how to prepare for future outbreaks.  We'll also have to face the economic damage the disease is doing and how to recover which may turn out to be a more daunting task.

Thanks, but we heard you the first time.

[armand]

.... ventilators are killing more people than some less intrusive methods,
...

Stop reading between the lines. Ventilators generally don't kill people (unless mismanaged). There is no clear data besides the fact that if a patient ends up on ventilators his chances of survival are not that good. But they die because they were too sick, not because of the ventilator.

[LesPalenik]

So active alcoholics might be more immune to this disease than sober folks? That's an interesting concept.  So let's carry that one step forward.  Let's say you're not an alcoholic but you're outside and someone coughs in your face.  So you pull out your flask of Covid-12 Lite and take a swig and rinse your mouth and throat.  Then spit it out in the street.  Maybe you have a eyedropper of antiseptic that doesn't hurt the eyes.  But it's strong enough to to kill virus.  If alcohol can kill the virus on a doorknob, a good rinse could kill it in your mouth before it takes root.  Is that far fetched?  I don;t think so.  But brainstorming is about throwing out wild ideas to get the group thinking about how to resolve difficult problems.

[Moderator's edit: I have deleted spurious and irrelevant political comment from this post. Alan, you are most definitely on a final warning. Do not do this again.]

Apart from fermented drinks, it may be beneficial to eat also fermented vegetables, particularly sauerkraut. Experts say people are turning to the acidic dishes to protect themselves against the COVID-19 bug, mainly to boost their immune system. Personally, I would rather ingest sauerkraut than Lysol.

Sauerkraut sales surged 960 percent year-over-year in the week of March 29 while overall grocery sales rose just 62.5 percent, according to e-commerce data from software firm Bloomreach.

Sauerkraut is one of the most common and oldest forms of preserved cabbage (Brassica oleracea convar capitata var sabauda L) or pointed cabbage (Brassica oleracea var capitata f alba). It is produced by the process of malolactic fermentation and can be traced back as a food source to the 4th century BC. Sauerkraut contains a large quantity of lactic acid; vitamins A, B, C, and K; and minerals and has few calories (about 80 kJ/100g). Even today in Germany, approximately 200 000 tons of cabbage are processed into sauerkraut. Between 1975 and 1980, the per capita use of sauerkraut in Germany stayed constant at 2.0 to 2.1 kg per year. Sauerkraut is also very popular in the Untied States and France, where it is also known as “German Kraut” or “Cassoulet.” Hippocrates described sauerkraut as a health food and medicinal remedy in his writing. The Romans have also valued the beneficial effect of sauerkraut. The writer Plinius Secundus wrote, “The cabbage helps to provide plenty of milk for breastfeeding mothers, it helps for cloudy eyes, positively affects headaches and is supposed to work as a cure after alcohol consumption.”
 
The studies found that sauerkraut induced inflammation locally, but repeated intake may result in diarrhea.

https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4268643/

[Paulo Bizarro]

Situation in Portugal has been improving slowly. The current state of emergency will end May 2. The plan now is to reopen some activities very slowly, carefully, and in a phased approach: 4 May, 18 May, 1 June, several segments will reopen, with constant monitoring and evaluation. Mostly shops, restaurants, commerce, companies. Always with limitations in capacity and number of people, the key is to avoid agglomerations of people.

Many companies will continue to work from home, but many others will need to go back to business. Even when beaches reopen 1 June, there will be limitation of people and a minimum distance between towels.

It is clear and expected that the infection rate will go up again, but as long as it is under the health system capacity, and with effective protection measures in place for the more exposed and at risk, it will work ok I think.

[LesPalenik]

It seems that outside of this circle, the general public is not googling for Corona virus as much as before.
They google even less for Covid-19.
 

[Alan Klein]

Situation in Portugal has been improving slowly. The current state of emergency will end May 2. The plan now is to reopen some activities very slowly, carefully, and in a phased approach: 4 May, 18 May, 1 June, several segments will reopen, with constant monitoring and evaluation. Mostly shops, restaurants, commerce, companies. Always with limitations in capacity and number of people, the key is to avoid agglomerations of people.

Many companies will continue to work from home, but many others will need to go back to business. Even when beaches reopen 1 June, there will be limitation of people and a minimum distance between towels.

It is clear and expected that the infection rate will go up again, but as long as it is under the health system capacity, and with effective protection measures in place for the more exposed and at risk, it will work ok I think.

May 4th, my prediction of weeks ago.  Glad to see everyone falling in line. 

[LesPalenik]

May 4th, my prediction of weeks ago.  Glad to see everyone falling in line.

By May 4, our ice fishing season will be finished.

[Alan Klein]

By May 4, our ice fishing season will be finished.

Be happy. They'll be bigger next year.