I'd have to find it again but that's what I recall from my computations a few months ago. The 40% is the effectiveness of the vaccine in some years. So I thought the results would be better too. But when I actually did the math on the total numbers, it came out to 10% and 20%. The difference between the 10/20% and the 40% could be accounted for because not everyone takes the vaccine. So the overall percentage of cases and deaths would be the lower number. For example, I recall in one year there were 16 million cases. The CDC estimated the vaccine reduced it from 20 million estimated potential cases which means a 20% reduction. However, the vaccine was 40% effective. The death rate was even worse. I recall a 10% calculation overall although I don't recall the actual number. I've always assumed taking the vaccine was a big deal. The low protection really surprised me even though the numbers are distorted by those who never took the vaccine.
If someone doesn't like the CDC numbers I used, make up your own. I really don't care.
Probably, this season there will be fewer flu cases than in the previous years, due to the physical distancing, plexiglass barriers in the stores and offices, and more people wearing masks.
Here are the percentages of effectiveness for the last decade. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/vaccines-work/effectiveness-studies.htmI care about the flu due to personal experience. When I was 20 years old and very fit and healthy, I went to bed one night feeling fine. I woke up the next morning with an extremely high fever and unable to walk unaided. My parents helped me to the car and took me to our doctor who sent me straight to the hospital to be admitted. By noon, I was in bed with an IV and had an eager young surgeon suggesting that he take me into surgery for an abdominal exploratory. Thanks to a second opinion from a lovely old doc that said — "Well, it could just be a very sudden and severe case of the flu and he's already here in the hospital if surgery is needed. Why not just wait and see." — I avoided an unnecessary operation. I don't remember how long I was in the hospital, but it was at least a few days. I always get my flu shot! Anything that will reduce the risk of having to go thru that again is fine with me!
Glad you survived, Bill, Jim, er, just what is your name, nickname, I just got an email from my pharmacy suggesting I get the regular flu shot in September. It's going to be interesting to see what happens with the regular flu this year. With all the masks, isolation, etc., the number should be dramatically lower. Has anyone seen any predictions?
Are you planning on getting a flu shot this year?
I don't know. I once got a flu shot and I thought I got the flu a week later. So I haven't gotten any since then. But at 75, it might be a good idea.
I don't know. I once got a flu shot and I thought I got the flu a week later. So I haven't gotten any since then. But at 75, it might be a good idea. What are you going to do when they "approve" the Covid vaccine? Will you be first on line? Wait a while to see if the first group survives? Or never?
I get the flu shot every year and can’t remember the last time I had the flu. Unless there is some contraindication at the time, I will get the COVID shot. You do know that they test it on something like 30,000 people during trials?You are a science skeptic so I don’t expect you to get the shot right off the bat, but eventually you will want to resume a normal life. If it is any inducement, if you get the shot, the nurse will probably give you a lollipop.
Just throwing in a general comment about science skepticism, something with which I have little patience or even respect. The fact is that the most important element in human culture that makes our lives as comfortable as they are is science. Not that long ago people died from tooth abscesses, many people lived with haemorrhoids the size of golfballs, phones and cars were not that reliable, and lots of babies and mothers died in childbirth. I won't bother mentioning all the diseases that we now treat that used to be fatal. To turn one's back on the very processes that led us here is a spectacular failure of imagination, to put it mildly. The comments I occasionally read in these forums about scientists being in cahoots about things, especially when the opposition to those ideas are so obviously ego and politically based, are embarrassing to read. Just interweb noise. It used to be the case that drunk bar talk by know-it-alls remained just that, but now it gets aired in public for all to see. I'm sick of it.
I'm an engineer and I love the subject of science. But science constantly develops and changes. Facts and details that were not known become and known and theories change. Taking everything at face value,can be short sighted.Here is an article that gives a current update of all the various issues with Covid 19. As you read through it, you'll see that experts have changed their minds on most issues. They still don't have all the facts. Their recommendations are offered with doubts. They hedge their bets. For example, they say that covid spreading by envelopes and touching surfaces probably doesn't happen. But the experts recommend that people continue to disinfect surfaces and be careful. What kind of a recommendation is that? What does the average layman suppose to think when he gets advice that sounds like it's coming from a politician?https://www.statnews.com/2020/08/17/what-we-now-know-about-covid19-and-what-questions-remain-to-be-answered/
You seem to have a real problem dealing with uncertainty. About COVID on envelopes, what don't you understand about the concept of "out of an abundance of caution"? What are you doing now about the envelopes you receive in the mail? You can't just let them sit there until the scientists are unanimous about what to do with them. For God's sake man, you may have won the Publishers' Clearing House Sweepstakes.If you are really interested in uncertainty, read Descartes Meditations. He offers some advice you may want to incorporate in your life. You should be able to find a good English translation free on the internet.
I check to see if I've won anything when the mail first comes in. These I spritz with 91% isopropyl alcohol and immediately open. The bills sit on the shelf for three days before opening.
Heating up the envelopes in a microwave or an oven should kill most of the germs. Or if you own a Sony camera, place it on the envelope and start recording some video. https://cleaning.lovetoknow.com/how-kill-household-germs/do-microwaves-kill-germs-like-viruses-bacteria
So now, both Russia and China announced their C19 vaccines. The American vaccine can't be too far behind. https://www.aa.com.tr/en/asia-pacific/china-confirms-its-first-covid-19-vaccine-patent/1944015
A friend of my wife sent her a birthday card recently. The husband nuked the card before delivering it. When my wife opened it, there were scorch marks all over the card from where there had been some foil decoration. Sort of like in a detective show when the inspector pulls a letter out of the suspect's fireplace and solves the crime. I am glad there wasn't a $20 bill in it. They have that metallic security stuff on them.I just get junk mail. I throw it in the recycle bin on my way back from the mailbox, and then wash my hands.
