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Author Topic: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS  (Read 22519 times)

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #60 on: March 24, 2020, 04:43:57 pm »

yes, in some countries. But increasing in most. Global death count for today: 2064
By country:
Italy - 743
USA - 120
Spain - 489
France - 240
Iran - 122
UK - 87
Netherlands - 63
As bad as those number look, they're no wheres near the annual flu deaths.  I think one of the keys to this thing is whether it will die out naturally in the Spring which is around the corner.  Additionally, we should have experts in Taiwan, So Korea and CHina meeting with officials over there to see what they did.  I assume we're doing that.  But who knows.  Morons work for the government. 

faberryman

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #61 on: March 24, 2020, 04:50:48 pm »

Morons work for the government.
At all levels.

armand

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #62 on: March 24, 2020, 04:51:42 pm »

As bad as those number look, they're no wheres near the annual flu deaths.  I think one of the keys to this thing is whether it will die out naturally in the Spring which is around the corner.  Additionally, we should have experts in Taiwan, So Korea and CHina meeting with officials over there to see what they did.  I assume we're doing that.  But who knows.  Morons work for the government.

You can't keep politics out of anything, can you?
We know what others countries did, it's not really a secret.

LesPalenik

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #63 on: March 24, 2020, 04:54:24 pm »

At all levels.

also in the private industry.

elliot_n

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #64 on: March 24, 2020, 05:02:23 pm »

As bad as those number look, they're no wheres near the annual flu deaths.

Alan those are daily numbers. Much worse than flu.
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LesPalenik

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #65 on: March 24, 2020, 06:09:34 pm »

As bad as those number look, they're no wheres near the annual flu deaths.

If you multiply these numbers by 365, the deaths stats be worse than flu.
If you allow for linear growth (or gentle bell curve) and six more months, it will look much worse.
In case of rapid exponential growth (the current trend) and a few more months, you don't even want to know.

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #66 on: March 24, 2020, 09:36:05 pm »

If you multiply these numbers by 365, the deaths stats be worse than flu.
If you allow for linear growth (or gentle bell curve) and six more months, it will look much worse.
In case of rapid exponential growth (the current trend) and a few more months, you don't even want to know.
We're going to find out very soon.  But what have Taiwan and China and So. Korea done that we can't do?  If they really have a handle on it, and there won't be a spike there, we should be copying their methods.  Of course, can we really trust the Chinese?  They lied about the virus that they had it.  Had they been up front, the rest of the world could have got a jump on it.  But all that's water over the dam.  Can we get real data as to their and other procedures where stopping this thing is really working.  I'm only 50 miles from NYC which is getting most of the numbers.

Paulo Bizarro

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #67 on: March 25, 2020, 04:06:30 am »

That's looks like a good chart.  But I could barely access it.

Alan,

It is an interactive plot. I have saved it as a JPEG and added a few labels. On the X-axis, are the number of days after reaching 100 cases, this is an indicator used by scientists. On the Y-axis (log) is the number of cases.

Portugal is the black line, I have labeled USA and Turkey, they have the highest growth rate, almost doubling the cases every 2 days.

Paulo Bizarro

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #68 on: March 25, 2020, 04:17:37 am »

We're going to find out very soon.  But what have Taiwan and China and So. Korea done that we can't do?  If they really have a handle on it, and there won't be a spike there, we should be copying their methods.  Of course, can we really trust the Chinese?  They lied about the virus that they had it.  Had they been up front, the rest of the world could have got a jump on it.  But all that's water over the dam.  Can we get real data as to their and other procedures where stopping this thing is really working.  I'm only 50 miles from NYC which is getting most of the numbers.

What they did is no secret: strict quarantine, and massive testing, VERY EARLY ON. That is the secret, to precvent contagion from the beginning. The virus R0 (infection ratio) is normally between 3 and 4. 1 person can infect 3 or 4; each one of those 3 or 4 will then infect another 3 or 4 and so on. Quarantining after the virus is freely spreading in the community has a much lower effect in arresting the exponential growth rate.

In Spain and Italy, they were too late. In Portugal, after about 10 days of staying at home, growth rate has decreased to 15%, which is good. The current R0 is about 1.5. The problm here is the older population staying in care homes - a lot of those homes have been found out to be infected, especially the people taking care of the old folks... it will be a disaster.

I don't want to mention politics again, but clearly some of the key decision makers were in denial until very recently. The efficient measures need to be taken on time, now it will be too late to have a big impact. Again countries have learned a lot from their experience with SARS epidemic in 2002 - 2003, so they acted immediately.

Yes, China were late in admiting the problem and warning the World. But governments everywhere were slow in adopting efficeint measures on time.

Martin Kristiansen

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #69 on: March 25, 2020, 05:44:36 am »

709 confirmed cases in South Africa as of today. Growing rapidly with the shutdown due to begin tomorrow. Iím all set. Whatís very weird to me is not one death. I personally know someone who tested positive for it and is now already fine. Japan has 1200 infections and 43 deaths(more or less). Why has no one died of it yet in South Africa I wonder? I feel like we are in the edge of a cliff.
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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #70 on: March 25, 2020, 06:28:24 am »

Alan,

It is an interactive plot. I have saved it as a JPEG and added a few labels. On the X-axis, are the number of days after reaching 100 cases, this is an indicator used by scientists. On the Y-axis (log) is the number of cases.

Portugal is the black line, I have labeled USA and Turkey, they have the highest growth rate, almost doubling the cases every 2 days.


Thanks for that.    It does appear the US is going up more sharply. However, it's hard to tell just looking at the chart which distorts the criteria depending how it's structured.  I wonder if a chart that show rates against the population would be better? Also, I heard that 60% of the new cases in America are coming just from NYC. So what's going on in the rest of the country.  On the positive side, it also appears that most lines seems to be flattening.   A few seem really flat but who knows how accurate they are?  Some government may be lying about the numbers.  They're really upped the amount of testing in the US.  I think we'll have better data pretty soon.

I see Japan put off the Olympics for one year.

LesPalenik

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #71 on: March 25, 2020, 06:50:08 am »

Thanks for that.    It does appear the US is going up more sharply. However, it's hard to tell just looking at the chart which distorts the criteria depending how it's structured.  I wonder if a chart that show rates against the population would be better? Also, I heard that 60% of the new cases in America are coming just from NYC. So what's going on in the rest of the country.  On the positive side, it also appears that most lines seems to be flattening.   A few seem really flat but who knows how accurate they are?  Some government may be lying about the numbers.  They're really upped the amount of testing in the US.  I think we'll have better data pretty soon.

Yes, the US Covid-19 infection rate is very steep. It's almost like the reproduction rate of hippos in Columbia. In the 90's Pablo Escobar brought 4 hippos to Columbia, and now there are almost 100 of them roaming the country. It is estimated that if left unchecked, within 20 years there could be thousands of hippos in Colombia.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2020, 06:56:41 am by LesPalenik »
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PeterAit

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #72 on: March 25, 2020, 10:00:38 am »

Just as an FYI:

  • The virus stays infectious on cardboard for ~24 hours
  • Amazon warehouse workers have been testing positive
  • Many delivery drivers have been going to work sick because they fear they will lose their jobs if they call in

It's been suggested that you leave delivered packages on the porch for 24 hours before bringing them in and opening.
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armand

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #73 on: March 25, 2020, 10:21:42 am »

Just as an FYI:

  • The virus stays infectious on cardboard for ~24 hours
  • Amazon warehouse workers have been testing positive
  • Many delivery drivers have been going to work sick because they fear they will lose their jobs if they call in

It's been suggested that you leave delivered packages on the porch for 24 hours before bringing them in and opening.

That's probably reasonable. If you have to open it immediately wipe the box with some bleach and wash hands after you open the box and before you take the contents out. It might be a good idea to wipe the inside boxes too, even if theoretically they should have been untouched for 48h plus. I need a little more insight on how and where the Coronavirus survived for 17 days in the cruise ship because that's a very long time. Also surviving in just detectable quantities doesn't necessarily mean it will easily infect.

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #74 on: March 25, 2020, 10:21:48 am »

Just as an FYI:

  • The virus stays infectious on cardboard for ~24 hours
  • Amazon warehouse workers have been testing positive
  • Many delivery drivers have been going to work sick because they fear they will lose their jobs if they call in

It's been suggested that you leave delivered packages on the porch for 24 hours before bringing them in and opening.
I put gloves on then handle the package.  I spray it with alcohol mist.  Then open it and spray the inside stuff.  After all the inside stuff was handled by someone somewhere too.  How healthy are they?  Then I dumpr the gloves right into the garbage can.  I leave the carton in the garage for the weekly pickup of cartons.

Frankly, the odds are better in Las Vegas. 

Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #75 on: March 25, 2020, 10:23:35 am »

What do you guys do when you shop for food in the supervirusmarket, Costco, or where ever?

armand

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #76 on: March 25, 2020, 10:29:21 am »

Our local chain updated it's store policies with dedicated hours for elederly and first responders: https://www.meijer.com/covid19response.html
So I'm using it.
When I get home I wash the fruits that have been outside of a bag and give a wipe with a soap saturated towel to the boxes of food, etc. Wash after and that's it. It try to give a thorough rinse to the salads and similar.

Paulo Bizarro

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #77 on: March 25, 2020, 10:51:17 am »

Thanks for that.    It does appear the US is going up more sharply. However, it's hard to tell just looking at the chart which distorts the criteria depending how it's structured.  I wonder if a chart that show rates against the population would be better? Also, I heard that 60% of the new cases in America are coming just from NYC. So what's going on in the rest of the country.  On the positive side, it also appears that most lines seems to be flattening.   A few seem really flat but who knows how accurate they are?  Some government may be lying about the numbers.  They're really upped the amount of testing in the US.  I think we'll have better data pretty soon.

I see Japan put off the Olympics for one year.

The steep growth period seems to last for 3 - 4 weeks, with the rate depending on measures in place. These epidemic curves are very well documented in literature, they follow a "sigmoid" shape or "S" shape. following those 3 - 4 weeks, typically we can expect another 3 - 4 weeks of a plateu period. Then finally it starts to come down.

Here in Portugal we expect the peak to be reached mid- April, and the thing to dimmer end-May.

Alan Goldhammer

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #78 on: March 25, 2020, 10:53:51 am »

What do you guys do when you shop for food in the supervirusmarket, Costco, or where ever?
The stores here have senior hours early in the morning.  That's the only time I go.  The local Whole Foods has almost everything in stock.  Not so with Safeway and Giant.  Whole Foods also checks ID at the door and won't let anyone under 60 in the store.  I keep my distance and use the wipes the store has.  I wash my hands when I get home.
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Paulo Bizarro

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Re: COVID-19 | science, damage limitation, NO POLITICS
« Reply #79 on: March 25, 2020, 10:55:32 am »

What do you guys do when you shop for food in the supervirusmarket, Costco, or where ever?

We have a policy of 4 people per 100m2 in the supermarkets. Once I leave the house, Inever bring myhands to my face, and use sleeves to open door handles. When I return home, I leave the shoes outside, take off my "street" clothes, basically I have a "dirty" area in the hall of my house.

I thouroughly wash my hands before putting on my "home" clothes, and leave the groceries sitting for a few hours.

It's just common sense really.

Take care.
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