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Author Topic: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa  (Read 325730 times)

TechTalk

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #14340 on: June 21, 2022, 06:39:37 pm »

Does trolling pay well? ;)

You've missed the fiendish plot at work here! Biden closed down a pipeline that doesn't exist (and never has or ever would) strangling the supply of Canadian oil tar sands (never happened - they kept flowing thru the thousands of miles already built). Then, unbelievably (because it never happened), he declared he was "stopping all drilling on federal lands" (which actually continued because they already had permits).

Of course the reference to "stopping all drilling on federal lands" may have been a mistake and what was meant was stopping all new permits for drilling on federal lands (which also never happened).

You have to keep up with the plot! There are twists and turns and devious vindictive motives being played out at every turn!
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Manoli

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #14341 on: June 21, 2022, 06:53:34 pm »

To your first question, Biden's closing of the Keystone XL pipeline and stopping all drilling on federal lands contributed significantly to the shortage and price increase of crude oil.

I posted 4 long-term charts to allow for historical perspective and rationale. For arguments sake, let us assume that rather than closing the XL pipeline, Biden waved a magic wand and, 'hey presto', a fully operational XL pipeline appeared.

Do you seriously contend that this would have affected the 'exponential'* rise in the world price of crude oil ?


As to the increased cost of container shipping, that was caused by the rush to move various goods across the globe and botched up shipping logistics as many ships sailed empty back to China to pick the next batch of masks and other PPE products.

No, 12 month charter rates did not increase 10-fold because of the PPE shortage. The long term rates increased as a direct result of the sharp upturn in IP and the limited supply of world tonnage. A situation persisting today.


As to the rise of rouble, its current strength is completely detached from the state of Russian economy and is the result of the Russian government actions which propped up the rouble to avert the market collapse,

Well they didn’t prop up the rouble. Once the majority of the sanctions had been applied, the Ruskis turned round and required payment for their raw materials in, surprise, roubles instead of dollars! With the limited supply of roubles, the value of the currency reversed its trajectory and them some - resulting in the strongest USD/RR exchange rate for over 5 years.

What you described, are 'currency controls' designed to stop a 'run' on banks and currency flight. The result here was the opposite.

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*exponential in inverted commas , lest Roussak should be lurking again.
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Manoli

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #14342 on: June 21, 2022, 06:54:32 pm »

People make the mistake of defining inflation as the rise in prices.  That's a modern definition, and incorrect traditionally.  Inflation traditionally was defined as the expansion of the money supply done by the Fed and other central banks ...

Well it's 2022, and if we want to go back and discuss the definition dating back to the 1800's and the American Civil War or even Bretton Woods that ended just over 50 years ago, let's do so - but in a different thread.

In the meantime,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_standard
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system

will give you a good handle on inflation, its history and it's 'definition'.

That's not inflation.  Inflation is always the expansion of the money supply. 

No, it’s not.
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TechTalk

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #14343 on: June 21, 2022, 07:11:03 pm »

*exponential in inverted commas , lest Roussak should be lurking again.

Ha! I get that reference... since I was his target for that scolding.  ;)
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TechTalk

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #14344 on: June 21, 2022, 07:25:06 pm »

Well it's 2022, and if we want to go back and discuss the definition dating back to the 1800's and the American Civil War or even Bretton Woods that ended just over 50 years ago, let's do so - but in a different thread.

In the meantime,

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Inflation
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gold_standard
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bretton_Woods_system

will give you a good handle on inflation, its history and it's 'definition'.

If we close our eyes and wish really hard, perhaps William Jennings Bryan will rise from the grave and give his "Cross of Gold speech" again. Maybe he could run for president one more time. His crusade against the teaching of evolution would still be popular with many in the current Republican base.

Of course, he'd have to switch his party affiliation. He was a Democrat when he ran for president in 1896, and 1900, and again in 1908.
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Manoli

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #14345 on: June 22, 2022, 02:45:29 am »

If we close our eyes and wish really hard, perhaps William Jennings Bryan will rise from the grave and give his "Cross of Gold speech" again. Maybe he could run for president one more time. His crusade against the teaching of evolution would still be popular with many in the current Republican base.

Of course, he'd have to switch his party affiliation. He was a Democrat when he ran for president in 1896, and 1900, and again in 1908.

Thank you for this and other links - always something to learn. A part of American history I knew nothing of (and dare I say I'm probably not the only one).
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Manoli

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #14346 on: June 22, 2022, 02:49:44 am »

On the rise of the price of oil:

Quote
President Joe Biden on Tuesday hit out at Chevron chief executive Mike Wirth, calling the oil major boss “sensitive” after he criticised the US administration’s energy policy, as high fuel prices deepen tensions between the White House and the domestic industry.

The US president’s rhetoric on oil companies has heated up in recent weeks. This month, he criticised ExxonMobil for “making more than God this year” … Last week, he criticised the industry’s elevated profits as “unacceptable” during “a time of war”, as conflict rages in Ukraine.

Wirth on Tuesday sent Biden a letter saying that increasing fuel supplies and bringing prices down would require a “change in approach” from the administration. He also rebuked the White House for seeking to “criticise, and at times vilify, our industry”. Asked about the letter during a White House event, Biden called Wirth “mildly sensitive”, saying he “didn’t know they would get their feelings hurt so quickly”. The president called on the industry to increase fuel supply. In his letter, Wirth said there was little the industry could do to bring down pump prices immediately, indicating that this week’s meeting was unlikely to yield relief for drivers in the US. “There are no easy fixes nor any short-term answers to the global supply and demand imbalances aggravated by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine,” Wirth wrote.

https://t.co/jYsT990Cce
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TechTalk

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #14347 on: June 22, 2022, 02:55:47 am »

Thank you for your contributions Manoli. I always enjoy reading your posts and learn from them as well.
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #14348 on: June 22, 2022, 07:10:08 am »

I was pointing out that both parties do it as a counterpoint to another poster's comments that only Republicans operate undemocratically.  Both parties do that if and when they can.  There is no scruples in politics.  I wish there was.  But the quest for power can turn an honest man. No party has a monopoly on honesty.

You never answered the questions in my second paragraph. I'm less interested in your views about inflation, oil production and election management, but am curious what you think of the GOP's play to thwart the workings of the electoral college at the state level.

As I wrote, "Aside from that, are you saying you're ok with partisan actors at the state level arbitrarily changing the allocation of electoral college votes opposite to what voters indicated? Does this really not bother you. Does voting not mean anything to you."

It seems to me that the importance of voters is fundamental and so these developments should be disturbing. But do you? Please don't deflect.

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digitaldog

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #14349 on: June 22, 2022, 08:54:14 am »

Please don't deflect.
Those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it.” – George Santayana
Those Who Forget Their (Own Posting) History Are Condemned to Repeat It.  ;D
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Alan Klein

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #14350 on: June 22, 2022, 09:21:20 am »

You never answered the questions in my second paragraph. I'm less interested in your views about inflation, oil production and election management, but am curious what you think of the GOP's play to thwart the workings of the electoral college at the state level.

As I wrote, "Aside from that, are you saying you're ok with partisan actors at the state level arbitrarily changing the allocation of electoral college votes opposite to what voters indicated? Does this really not bother you. Does voting not mean anything to you."

It seems to me that the importance of voters is fundamental and so these developments should be disturbing. But do you? Please don't deflect.


What Trump did was sleazy and politics as usual.  I don;t like it any more than I liked when Democrats tried to convert Trump's sworn electors in the 2016 presidential election to not vote for him but for the Democrat losers.  Also sleazy and politics as usual.  Does that disturb you?  How about Hillary's phony dossier that created a false investigation of a political candidate and then the US president?  Or how about Gore's complaint about "chads" -  holes in voting punchcards that he claimed "incorrectly" gave the vote to Bush in Florida allowing him to win the presidency in 2000.  That brouhaha went on for weeks before the Supreme Court determined who the president-elect would be leaving Americans and the whole world confused about us until then.  Does that disturb you?

But as I said, at the end of the day, the courts decided in a legal and constitutional way.  There were no coups, just a lot of noise. The Republic still stands.

The bottom line is Democrats have nothing to argue for themselves in November having created so many problems for themselves.  So they hope to use Trump again to win votes to make the contest about him rather than Democratic policies and governance  I do not think the electorate is going to again buy into that false narrative.  Most people don't care about Trump.  They care about fuel costs, inflation, and other economic issues along with crime, immigration, etc.  Those things will decide the election, not Trump.


Robert Roaldi

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #14351 on: June 22, 2022, 09:39:31 am »

...

The bottom line is Democrats have nothing to argue for themselves in November having created so many problems for themselves.  So they hope to use Trump again to win votes to make the contest about him rather than Democratic policies and governance  I do not think the electorate is going to again buy into that false narrative.  Most people don't care about Trump.  They care about fuel costs, inflation, and other economic issues along with crime, immigration, etc.  Those things will decide the election, not Trump.

Well, you deflected a little but I can live with that, spots and leopards after all. You make some assertions about Democratic behaviour equivalence, which seems like exaggeration to me frankly, but you will believe what you will believe. I have to say though that you don't seem concerned enough with the obvious moves to thwart democratic principles on the part of the current GOP. But you have given me the impression several times over the last 2 years that the principles of democracy are less important to you than "your" guy winning. I hope that's just heated rhetoric of the moment.

Your assertion that people don't care about Trump seems a little off to me. Are we reading the same news reports?

Just one more remark from me. You have referred to me having allegiances to Dems and Hilary and Biden a few times. I don't know where you get that. I couldn't care less what clowns you elect in the USA, I have enough to worry about it here in Canada. Frankly, I don't believe that there has been much ideological difference between your two parties. Where differences existed they were at the margins. The only real interest I have in this is because in the case of Trumpistan I see a racist authoritarian incompetent halfwit that has created a large cult following based on drunken bar talk whose existence is baffling to me. Believing in small government is one thing, following his demented "non-policies" is something else entirely. I see huge fear on the part of Americans and for the life of me I don't get what you're all afraid of. Are you really that worried about a few trans people? Is it really any of anyone else's business if your neighbour wants an abortion? This pseudo culture war is a con. Someone is f**king with you. Wake up please.

I may be done here with this topic, we're back going around the same circles. I'm sorry to say that most of your responses are incoherent.

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Alan Klein

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #14352 on: June 22, 2022, 10:59:20 am »

Well, you deflected a little but I can live with that, spots and leopards after all. You make some assertions about Democratic behaviour equivalence, which seems like exaggeration to me frankly, but you will believe what you will believe. I have to say though that you don't seem concerned enough with the obvious moves to thwart democratic principles on the part of the current GOP. But you have given me the impression several times over the last 2 years that the principles of democracy are less important to you than "your" guy winning. I hope that's just heated rhetoric of the moment.

Your assertion that people don't care about Trump seems a little off to me. Are we reading the same news reports?

Just one more remark from me. You have referred to me having allegiances to Dems and Hilary and Biden a few times. I don't know where you get that. I couldn't care less what clowns you elect in the USA, I have enough to worry about it here in Canada. Frankly, I don't believe that there has been much ideological difference between your two parties. Where differences existed they were at the margins. The only real interest I have in this is because in the case of Trumpistan I see a racist authoritarian incompetent halfwit that has created a large cult following based on drunken bar talk whose existence is baffling to me. Believing in small government is one thing, following his demented "non-policies" is something else entirely. I see huge fear on the part of Americans and for the life of me I don't get what you're all afraid of. Are you really that worried about a few trans people? Is it really any of anyone else's business if your neighbour wants an abortion? This pseudo culture war is a con. Someone is f**king with you. Wake up please.

I may be done here with this topic, we're back going around the same circles. I'm sorry to say that most of your responses are incoherent.


There are those on the left who hate Trump and can't stop talking about him.  Then there are those on the right who love and can't stop talking about him.  These people on both sides won't decide the upcoming election. It's the people in the middle, independents especially,  who don't care about Trump but do care about their pocketbooks and safety and other issues of the day.  They tend to vote on who's in charge at the time of the election.  Unfortunately for Democrats, they run both the presidency and both houses of Congress.  So they're going to get blamed for problems people are concerned about.

Here's the current approval rating for Biden.  Only 40% of the people approve vs 55% who don't,  The ratings were reversed when he took office - 53% positive 36% negative.  Many Democrats and those that previously voted for him have gone sour on him.  That bleeds over how they feel about Democrats in general, especially since Democrats also run Congress.  The only saving grace is that if Republicans take over Congress in January, they'll get blamed for future economic problems which might help Democrats in 2024. 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/biden-approval-rating/

digitaldog

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #14353 on: June 22, 2022, 11:00:49 am »

There are those on the left who hate Trump and can't stop talking about him. 
One example (whom I'm certain you Alan have no idea about): Lady Ruby.
There are many more who hate him for very good reason. Trump is a vile human.
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digitaldog

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #14354 on: June 22, 2022, 12:11:36 pm »

Well, you deflected a little but I can live with that, spots and leopards after all.
I'm sorry to say that most of your responses are incoherent.
History repeats itself.
It's the people in the middle, independents especially,  who don't care about Trump but do care about their pocketbooks and safety and other issues of the day.  They tend to vote on who's in charge at the time of the election. 
History repeats itself. Alan speaking for others (in this case, people in the middle, independents especially who don't 'care about Trump').
When such authors recognize their own writings are obviously incoherent, such authors speak for others and deflect.
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Peter McLennan

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #14355 on: June 22, 2022, 01:38:13 pm »

Trump is a vile human.

Agree on the vile part.  Disagree on the human part.

The fact, as Alan asserts, that most Americans are more concerned with the current price of gasoline rather than democracy is, unfortunately, unsurprising.

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #14356 on: June 22, 2022, 02:11:41 pm »

I don't and will not speak for most Americans.
The price of gas sucks, not a major issue for me. Look what Europeans paid for year's. We gotta got over this gas addiction.
The issues with our democracy is far more concerning to me. Alan, apparently not at all sadly.
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #14357 on: June 22, 2022, 03:36:01 pm »

I don't and will not speak for most Americans.
The price of gas sucks, not a major issue for me. Look what Europeans paid for year's. We gotta got over this gas addiction.
The issues with our democracy is far more concerning to me. Alan, apparently not at all sadly.

Could not agree more. The per litre price around where I live went from about $1.20 (CAN) in the early spring to $2.05 or so lately (no idea what that is in gallons). Yeah it costs more, but considering the avg price of a new car (in the low $40,000 CAN), not to mention the prices of humongous trucks bought for personal and not commercial use, the cost of tires (we need 2 sets because of winter), insurance and maintenance, the cost of gasoline is a small fraction of my yearly expense. This is very much a first-world problem and I'm sick of the whining about it. We live in a very affluent society and drive over-engineered and very expensive vehicles. The lower priced Honda Fits, Toyota Yaris and other similar small models are not even available anymore. (I'm told that this is because they are not profitable, yet by some miracle of geography they are available in the rest of the world. Go figure.)

Gasoline costs what it costs and if you own a car you have to pay it, end of story. What's the alternative, leaving it in the driveway? It's a car, not a statue. We designed our urban areas in a specific way, which implied a certain kind of transport system that was primarily dependent on cars. We made that bed, now we get to lie in it. It's not as if no one saw this coming, there are literally volumes written about it. We put our eggs in one basket, more or less, always a mistake.

Besides which, resource prices are cyclical, prices will drop eventually and all it means is that we spent more than we anticipated for a while. Boo hoo. There is nothing in any countriy's constitution or on the tablets from god that said we would enjoy cheap personal transportation every day of our lives.
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Alan Klein

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #14358 on: June 22, 2022, 03:51:26 pm »

Could not agree more. The per litre price around where I live went from about $1.20 (CAN) in the early spring to $2.05 or so lately (no idea what that is in gallons). Yeah it costs more, but considering the avg price of a new car (in the low $40,000 CAN), not to mention the prices of humongous trucks bought for personal and not commercial use, the cost of tires (we need 2 sets because of winter), insurance and maintenance, the cost of gasoline is a small fraction of my yearly expense. This is very much a first-world problem and I'm sick of the whining about it. We live in a very affluent society and drive over-engineered and very expensive vehicles. The lower priced Honda Fits, Toyota Yaris and other similar small models are not even available anymore. (I'm told that this is because they are not profitable, yet by some miracle of geography they are available in the rest of the world. Go figure.)

Gasoline costs what it costs and if you own a car you have to pay it, end of story. What's the alternative, leaving it in the driveway? It's a car, not a statue. We designed our urban areas in a specific way, which implied a certain kind of transport system that was primarily dependent on cars. We made that bed, now we get to lie in it. It's not as if no one saw this coming, there are literally volumes written about it. We put our eggs in one basket, more or less, always a mistake.

Besides which, resource prices are cyclical, prices will drop eventually and all it means is that we spent more than we anticipated for a while. Boo hoo. There is nothing in any countriy's constitution or on the tablets from god that said we would enjoy cheap personal transportation every day of our lives.
There are many people living from check to check.  Higher gas prices put a real crimp on their ability to pay for weekly expenses.  Additionally, high oil prices raise the cost of diesel fuel used in farming machinery, tractors, and trucks, ships, and rail to get food to market.  That raises the cost of food for people at home and in other parts of the world who really cannot afford to pay more to eat.  Starvation could follow.  Also, oil is used to heat homes for many throughout the world. Not everyone is in a position to afford these additional costs.  We should not be so cavalier about the cost of necessities just because some of us have been fortunate enough to afford these higher costs.  I'm sure that's not what you meant.  I know you're concerned about these people.  But these costs should be considered when looking at these things.

Alan Klein

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Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #14359 on: June 22, 2022, 03:57:25 pm »

Agree on the vile part.  Disagree on the human part.

The fact, as Alan asserts, that most Americans are more concerned with the current price of gasoline rather than democracy is, unfortunately, unsurprising.


I never asserted that?  Americans know how to walk and chew gum at the same time. 
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