Pages: 1 ... 714 715 [716] 717 718 ... 778   Go Down

Author Topic: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa  (Read 325478 times)

digitaldog

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 19952
  • Andrew Rodney
    • http://www.digitaldog.net/
Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #14300 on: June 21, 2022, 08:38:37 am »

I suspect that he is also a better photographer than the aforementioned ensemble.
Suspect all you want.
I've seen his photography; that's not saying much. 🤫
I'm even less impressed at his writings and understanding as Zoologist, Economist, Virologist, Climatologist, and legal scholar here on our photo forum. I'm not alone.
He should (could) stick to photography.
Logged
Author “Color Management for Photographers" & "Photoshop CC Color Management" on pluralsight.com

LesPalenik

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5309
    • advantica blog
Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #14301 on: June 21, 2022, 09:59:49 am »

Attached are 4 charts,
WTI Crude Oil
Industrial production
Containership - cost of transportation, and finally
US dollar v Russian Rouble.

Please explain exactly how the Fed are, or were, able to influence the first three markets (prime inflation 'movers') - it's a rhetorical question.

And second, how come the trade sanctions, so beloved of Trump and the MAGA crowd, resulted in the rouble initially collapsing to a low of 134 against the greenback, yet now in the midst of record sanctions as a consequence of the Ukrainian invasion, the rouble stands at an alltime high against the dollar of 55 (strong rouble, weak dollar).

To your first question, Biden's closing of the Keystone XL pipeline and stopping all drilling on federal lands contributed significantly to the shortage and price increase of crude oil. Those were rushed and vindictive decisions, and now USA administration is begging Venezuela, a terrorist state to sell them their oil instead of cooperating with their traditional allies, such as Canada and Mexico. 
As to the increased cost of container shipping, that was caused by the rush to move various goods across the globe and botched up shipping logistics as many ships sailed empty back to China to pick the next batch of masks and other PPE products.

As to the rise of rouble, its current strength is completely detached from the state of Russian economy and is the result of the Russian government actions which propped up the rouble to avert the market collapse, raised interest rate to 20%, banned selling of Russian assets by foreigners and limited foreign cash withdrawals for Russian citizens. Actually, the currently artificially propped rouble creates new problems for Russian exports which at this time exceed their imports. It is very likely that the latest rise of rouble is only temporary and soon it will fall back to 100 roubles to one US dollar.
In real terms, the difference between the rouble and dollar will be again one dollar.
Logged

PeterAit

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4355
    • Peter Aitken Photographs
Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #14302 on: June 21, 2022, 10:04:14 am »


Inflation is worldwide and the US ranks 81st - in other words, 80 countries have worse inflation than we do. So please explain how this is all the fault of Biden and the Dems.
Logged

Robert Roaldi

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4529
    • Robert's Photos
Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #14303 on: June 21, 2022, 10:13:06 am »

Alan may be not the expert in all these areas, but he has more grasp of economy than Jeremy Powell and the other Fed clowns. I suspect that he is also a better photographer than the aforementioned ensemble.

First, the Fed didn't heed the warnings about coming inflation caused by all the money printing, wasted six trillions on cavalier covid stimulus, then they hired hundreds of investigators to follow up on fraudulent stimulus applications and billions of dollars and then they are shocked to discover the "transitory" inflation only to declare a few months later that the transitory inflation is now a permanent 8.6% inflation, which of course, is only about half of the real inflation when you consider increases of gas and food prices. And Walmart is selling now a two-pack of no-name brand men's boxer briefs for $23.

While the initial covid stimulus was meant to prevent job losses and collapse of economy, now they are resolved to follow through the series of rapid interest rate increases to fight the inflation even if it will cause a stock market crash and millions of unemployed. 

https://thehill.com/policy/finance/599371-irs-probe-finds-nearly-2-billion-in-covid-19-related-stimulus-fraud/
 


Your characterization of Alan's economic literacy is hyperbole, but that's ok.

As for the rest, what we could do is this. Next pandemic, let's do nothing, see if that works better. Complaining about what programs cost is easy, but it's necessary to consider the cost of NOT taking those actions in any analysis.

As for the complaints about fraud, all human activity invites freeloaders. It's the cost of doing business. Retail stores have shoplifters, do we close all stores? I remember hearing about how the health care system here in Canada was inundated with Americans posing as Canadians for the free health care. The argument surfaces now and then. I'm sure it happens from time to time but so what. You control and eliminate as much as you can and live with some slippage, the way all of us do every day. Some people run red lights and don't get caught, should we take down all traffic lights?

It might be worthwhile comparing the amounts of money you're concerned about with how much money is buried in off-shore tax havens. We don't seem to worry about that much. I don't mean to do a "what about", I'm just saying to keep some perspective. Would we really have been better off if we let millions of people die?
Logged
--
Robert

digitaldog

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 19952
  • Andrew Rodney
    • http://www.digitaldog.net/
Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #14304 on: June 21, 2022, 10:21:43 am »

Your characterization of Alan's economic literacy is hyperbole, but that's ok.
Indeed!
People make the mistake of defining inflation as the rise in prices
First Google search on the term, looking for a definition of Inflation (unlike Alan and non exist from him, peer-reviewed articles by actual experts):
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/inflation.asp

Quote
Inflation is the decline of purchasing power of a given currency over time. A quantitative estimate of the rate at which the decline in purchasing power occurs can be reflected in the increase of an average price level of a basket of selected goods and services in an economy over some period of time. The rise in prices, which is often expressed as a percentage, means that a unit of currency effectively buys less than it did in prior periods.

I use bold type not for Alan who will ignore any fact but for others who as yet, do not understand how he has to ignore any facts.
People make the mistake of reading Alan's text and believing it or suggesting it isn't wrong or hyperbole. It is more often than not, both in massive doses.
Logged
Author “Color Management for Photographers" & "Photoshop CC Color Management" on pluralsight.com

digitaldog

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 19952
  • Andrew Rodney
    • http://www.digitaldog.net/
Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #14305 on: June 21, 2022, 10:23:57 am »

Inflation is worldwide and the US ranks 81st - in other words, 80 countries have worse inflation than we do. So please explain how this is all the fault of Biden and the Dems.
That would require the use of facts and data that are outside the unreality bubble.
Logged
Author “Color Management for Photographers" & "Photoshop CC Color Management" on pluralsight.com

LesPalenik

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 5309
    • advantica blog
Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #14306 on: June 21, 2022, 10:28:41 am »


Your characterization of Alan's economic literacy is hyperbole, but that's ok.

As for the rest, what we could do is this. Next pandemic, let's do nothing, see if that works better. Complaining about what programs cost is easy, but it's necessary to consider the cost of NOT taking those actions in any analysis.

As for the complaints about fraud, all human activity invites freeloaders. It's the cost of doing business. Retail stores have shoplifters, do we close all stores? I remember hearing about how the health care system here in Canada was inundated with Americans posing as Canadians for the free health care. The argument surfaces now and then. I'm sure it happens from time to time but so what. You control and eliminate as much as you can and live with some slippage, the way all of us do every day. Some people run red lights and don't get caught, should we take down all traffic lights?

It might be worthwhile comparing the amounts of money you're concerned about with how much money is buried in off-shore tax havens. We don't seem to worry about that much. I don't mean to do a "what about", I'm just saying to keep some perspective. Would we really have been better off if we let millions of people die?

The initial stimulus tranch was a responsible and smart thing, The last one not so.
Logged

Robert Roaldi

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4529
    • Robert's Photos
Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #14307 on: June 21, 2022, 10:34:07 am »

Indeed!First Google search on the term, looking for a definition of Inflation (unlike Alan and non exist from him, peer-reviewed articles by actual experts):
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/i/inflation.asp

I use bold type not for Alan who will ignore any fact but for others who as yet, do not understand how he has to ignore any facts.
People make the mistake of reading Alan's text and believing it or suggesting it isn't wrong or hyperbole. It is more often than not, both in massive doses.

I read (actually re-read) a good description of inflation in Joseph Heath's Enlightenment 2.0. He describes it this way. In periods when a country's "productivity" goes up, salaries increase, companies make more money, the economy (the thing we call the economy is just a way to measure those things) expands. When productivity decreases, what should really happen is that wages should be cut, profits should reduce, etc. But that wouldn't go over well, instead we let inflation decrease everyone's spending power.

My first job out of school several decades ago was as data and programming support for a group or macro economists at an economic consulting company. My background was not economics but math/physics. It became pretty clear to me that trying to explain inflation's causes in a sentence or two misses the mark by a mile. There's more to it than blaming the current politicians in power.
Logged
--
Robert

Robert Roaldi

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4529
    • Robert's Photos
Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #14308 on: June 21, 2022, 10:43:37 am »

I wonder if you're as concerned with Democratic plans to subvert the democratic process by gerrymandering more power to their party in Illinois, NY and other states?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/videos/illinois-may-be-the-worst-democratic-gerrymander-in-the-country/
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/27/nyregion/redistricting-congress-gerrymander-ny.html

I don't follow your change of topic to gerrymandering. That has been discussed in the past. The way to fix that is clear and has been implemented in many countries successfully. You must remove partisan actors from the machinery of running of elections. That's just so obvious.

Aside from that, are you saying you're ok with partisan actors at the state level arbitrarily changing the allocation of electoral college votes opposite to what voters indicated? Does this really not bother you. Does voting not mean anything to you.                                                                     

Logged
--
Robert

digitaldog

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 19952
  • Andrew Rodney
    • http://www.digitaldog.net/
Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #14309 on: June 21, 2022, 10:51:34 am »

I don't follow your change of topic to gerrymandering. That has been discussed in the past.                                                             
That's his old tactic of diversions when he starts, repeat just starts to get a clue he is again not being taken seriously.
Logged
Author “Color Management for Photographers" & "Photoshop CC Color Management" on pluralsight.com

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15851
    • Flicker photos
Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #14310 on: June 21, 2022, 01:26:48 pm »

Inflation is worldwide and the US ranks 81st - in other words, 80 countries have worse inflation than we do. So please explain how this is all the fault of Biden and the Dems.
Republicans have been as guilty in the past as Democrats for printing.  However, the presidency and the full Congress is currently Democrat-controlled.  So they get the blame.  The fact is Biden and most Democrats tried to legislate sending out trillions in more checks to the populace when the economy was already starting to recover, inflating the dollar even more and forcing people to stay home and not work, lowering productivity.  That was the democrat's decision.  Also, Democrats wanted to print another three trillion or so to cover it.  Had not Manchin and Sinema quashed the additional spending, the CPI would probably be over 12% not 8.6%.

As far as other countries are concerned, when I was a kid I tried that with my parents blaming the other boys when things went bad.  "They were doing it too." My parents never bought that excuse either. 

digitaldog

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 19952
  • Andrew Rodney
    • http://www.digitaldog.net/
Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #14311 on: June 21, 2022, 01:32:30 pm »

Republicans have been as guilty in the past as Democrats for printing.
Both 300dpi Alan?
Original prints are 300dpi.  So scan at 300 dpi, or 600 at the most.
Quote
when I was a kid I tried that with my parents blaming the other boys when things went bad.
Your consistency these days is noted.
Logged
Author “Color Management for Photographers" & "Photoshop CC Color Management" on pluralsight.com

TechTalk

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3608
Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #14312 on: June 21, 2022, 01:46:12 pm »

he has more grasp of economy [sic] than Jeremy Powell and the other Fed clowns.

The breadth and depth of knowledge and experience among the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in economics and finance is far greater than the flimsy set of talking points, which would fit on the back of a cereal box, that you seem to admire. Even accounting for your hyperbole, it's an emotional outburst rather than a serious point for discussion.
Logged
Respice, adspice, prospice - Look to the past, the present, the future

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15851
    • Flicker photos
Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #14313 on: June 21, 2022, 01:49:19 pm »

I read (actually re-read) a good description of inflation in Joseph Heath's Enlightenment 2.0. He describes it this way. In periods when a country's "productivity" goes up, salaries increase, companies make more money, the economy (the thing we call the economy is just a way to measure those things) expands. When productivity decreases, what should really happen is that wages should be cut, profits should reduce, etc. But that wouldn't go over well, instead we let inflation decrease everyone's spending power.

My first job out of school several decades ago was as data and programming support for a group or macro economists at an economic consulting company. My background was not economics but math/physics. It became pretty clear to me that trying to explain inflation's causes in a sentence or two misses the mark by a mile. There's more to it than blaming the current politicians in power.
That's not inflation.  Inflation is always the expansion of the money supply.  The reason the Fed got it wrong, and keeps getting it wrong, is because they learned it wrong in college.  That's why we're in the mess we're in.

As the famous economist Milton Friedman famously said, “Inflation is always and everywhere a monetary phenomenon in the sense that it is and can be produced only by a more rapid increase in the quantity of money than in output.”

You also have a few other facts wrong.  If a particular company's productivity goes up and the boss increases their wages because of it, it's because he's able to produce more widgets cheaper.  Those savings are passed on to the customer who pays less for the product, not more.  Inflation, the printing of money beyond equivalent productivity increases, raises the prices of products.  Increased productivity lowers the prices. Companies whose workers are producing less fire their employees or the company goes out of business. 

That's what we're going to see soon as the recession hits and the Fed doesn't print to support zombie companies.  Marginal companies will fail.  No one is going to loan them money or capital as the Fed encourages now with cheap printed money.  Unemployment will go up, GDP will go down, stocks will go down, and more workers will be laid off.  Assets will deflate.  Welcome to the recession and higher prices - stagflation of the 1970s/80s. It's going to get bad pretty soon as the again-to-be-seen free market tries to correct the central planning mess the government has created over the last couple of decades of deficit spending, printing and low-interest rates with attendant debt.   
« Last Edit: June 21, 2022, 01:58:14 pm by Alan Klein »
Logged

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15851
    • Flicker photos
Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #14314 on: June 21, 2022, 02:02:02 pm »

I don't follow your change of topic to gerrymandering. That has been discussed in the past. The way to fix that is clear and has been implemented in many countries successfully. You must remove partisan actors from the machinery of running of elections. That's just so obvious.

Aside from that, are you saying you're ok with partisan actors at the state level arbitrarily changing the allocation of electoral college votes opposite to what voters indicated? Does this really not bother you. Does voting not mean anything to you.                                                                     


I was pointing out that both parties do it as a counterpoint to another poster's comments that only Republicans operate undemocratically.  Both parties do that if and when they can.  There is no scruples in politics.  I wish there was.  But the quest for power can turn an honest man. No party has a monopoly on honesty.

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 15851
    • Flicker photos
Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #14315 on: June 21, 2022, 02:04:46 pm »

The breadth and depth of knowledge and experience among the Federal Reserve Board of Governors in economics and finance is far greater than the flimsy set of talking points, which would fit on the back of a cereal box, that you seem to admire. Even accounting for your hyperbole, it's an emotional outburst rather than a serious point for discussion.
The fact is the Fed got it wrong, Powell got it wrong, Yellen got it wrong.  At least she had the honesty to admit she was wrong. 

digitaldog

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 19952
  • Andrew Rodney
    • http://www.digitaldog.net/
Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #14316 on: June 21, 2022, 02:13:00 pm »

I was pointing out that both parties do it as a counterpoint to another poster's comments that only Republicans operate undemocratically. 
Yet only one party has a large membership that has tried to conduct a coupe in a recent election.

Yellen got it wrong.  At least she had the honesty to admit she was wrong.
If only that were an example for you.....  :'(
"Where you see wrong or inequality or injustice, speak out, because this is your country. This is your democracy. Make it. Protect it. Pass it on". -Thurgood Marshall
Logged
Author “Color Management for Photographers" & "Photoshop CC Color Management" on pluralsight.com

TechTalk

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3608
Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #14317 on: June 21, 2022, 02:13:51 pm »

First, the Fed didn't heed the warnings about coming inflation caused by all the money printing, wasted six trillions on cavalier covid stimulus, then they hired hundreds of investigators...

First, the Fed's authority and domain, important as it may be, is limited. Congress appropriates stimulus funds thru legislation and the Treasury authorizes and oversees its distribution and investigates instances of fraud, not the Feral Reserve. The Fed has no legislative authority. It functions as a central bank for the principle purpose of overseeing monetary policy and establishing interest rates, but there are a great many financial matters outside of its jurisdiction.

Nowhere in your ramble do you mention Congress or the Department of Treasury. You give the appearance of not understanding how authority is divided and the basic roles played by various institutions of government in matters of economics. So, I don't really see any point in chasing after this horse, which has already been beaten to death, that you're attempting to make run again.
Logged
Respice, adspice, prospice - Look to the past, the present, the future

TechTalk

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3608
Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #14318 on: June 21, 2022, 02:33:35 pm »

It became pretty clear to me that trying to explain inflation's causes in a sentence or two misses the mark by a mile.

BUT... you can fit it on bumper sticker, insert it into a 30-second campaign ad, or fit it on the back of a box of corn flakes and still have room left over for a coupon. Now... try doing that with a bunch of musty old economics text books and research papers!
Logged
Respice, adspice, prospice - Look to the past, the present, the future

PeterAit

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4355
    • Peter Aitken Photographs
Re: Bear Pit: now the sole domicile of politics at LuLa
« Reply #14319 on: June 21, 2022, 02:56:04 pm »


As far as other countries are concerned, when I was a kid I tried that with my parents blaming the other boys when things went bad.  "They were doing it too." My parents never bought that excuse either.

You yet again miss the point. It's not about blaming other countries (where *DO* you get these ideas?), but rather the fact that inflation in other countries cannot be the result of US government policies. Our inflation is part of the worldwide trend. It is not the result of our government policies.
Logged
Pages: 1 ... 714 715 [716] 717 718 ... 778   Go Up