Pages: 1 ... 6 7 [8] 9 10 ... 60   Go Down

Author Topic: Covid 19 Updates Part 2  (Read 10823 times)

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 8486
    • Flicker photos
Re: Covid 19 Updates Part 2
« Reply #140 on: March 29, 2020, 08:39:38 pm »

I am familiar with the rule. I am not sure who died and left Alan in charge of enforcing it.

Summary: This is a story about how the US is buying 80 tons of personal protective supplies and other medical equipment from China and other Asian countries and air lifting it over here. It seems these countries have plenty to sell. The article is silent as to whether these items are subject to the tariffs. Please note that this story appears in the New York Times and therefore may or may not be true depending on your political persuasion.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/29/business/economy/coronavirus-china-supplies.html
I wasn't trying to enforce anything.  I asked for more information on the link as the poster seemed to indicate it was about cancer research.  I wanted a synopsis so I could determine whether I should spend my time going to the link and reading the material.  I always do that when I provide links in my posts as Les mentioned in his post.   I think it's a courtesy to do that rather than wasting people's time who may not be interested in reading or viewing it if its a video. 

Actually I went back and read the linked material.  It was informative and about how investigations should be done regarding individual's response to the virus infection.  It didn't give any specific answers about this disease.  But laid out a kind of blueprint to what should be done by investigators based on passed infections like AIDS and smallpox.   The synopsis I just provided would have been helpful if the original posted something like that.  Then you, me and everyone else could decide whether to read it or not. 

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 8486
    • Flicker photos
Re: Covid 19 Updates Part 2
« Reply #141 on: March 29, 2020, 08:41:43 pm »

Instead of just showing a link with the implied message - "Trust me and read it", it would be a good practice to show always the three pieces of information Jeremy requested:

Poster's brief comment or position
Excerpt or summary of the quoted / external link
URL link(s)

Optionally, insertion of a suitable picture (typically from the quoted link) can be beneficial
Reminds me of a blind date I once was convinced to go on.  :)

LesPalenik

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3615
    • advantica blog
Re: Covid 19 Updates Part 2
« Reply #142 on: March 29, 2020, 08:49:50 pm »

Reminds me of a blind date I once was convinced to go on.  :)

I can relate to that.

JoeKitchen

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 4026
Re: Covid 19 Updates Part 2
« Reply #143 on: March 29, 2020, 09:00:28 pm »

My feeling is that if a link is posted without a summary, and you are unable to determine the topic by reference to the text of the link, you can elect not to click on it all by yourself. Nobody is forcing you to click on links and read them.

Or maybe, any poster could realize this is not his/her house, and play by the rules. 
Logged
Joe Kitchen
www.josephmkitchen.com

"Photography is one percent inspiration and ninety-nine percent moving furniture."  Arnold Newman
“Don't bother just to be better than your contemporaries or predecessors. Try to be better than yourself.”  William Faulkner

elliot_n

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Online Online
  • Posts: 1177
Re: Covid 19 Updates Part 2
« Reply #144 on: March 29, 2020, 09:51:51 pm »

Yawn. Wake me up when it passes the usual 50-60K deaths from regular flu every year (in the States).

'If we have between 100,000 and 200,000 we’ve all together done a very good job.'
Logged

James Clark

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 1643
Re: Covid 19 Updates Part 2
« Reply #145 on: March 29, 2020, 10:04:18 pm »

'If we have between 100,000 and 200,000 we’ve all together done a very good job.'

Don’t be threatening, Cutie Pie. 
Logged

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 8486
    • Flicker photos
Re: Covid 19 Updates Part 2
« Reply #146 on: March 29, 2020, 11:49:10 pm »

I just did my own analysis of what could be in store based on figures coming in by county throughout the US.  Comparing percentage of deaths to cases, it varies significantly depending in which county.  Assuming it spreads through the US everywhere and 40,000,000 are infected, anywheres from 200,000 to one million will die.  Of course that's based on discovered cases. That's of course if this things continues spreading and there';s no antidote.  The saving grace is if it dies out soon on it's own.    My estimates would be a lot lower of the actual infected is much higher but just not realized by those doing the statistics.

Here the charts I used if you want to do your own analysis.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/29/coronavirus-heres-a-map-of-rural-counties-in-us-most-affected-by-pandemic.html

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 8486
    • Flicker photos
Re: Covid 19 Updates Part 2
« Reply #147 on: March 29, 2020, 11:51:10 pm »

My estimates would be higher though if more than 40 million are infected.  (out of 330 million)

LesPalenik

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3615
    • advantica blog
Re: Covid 19 Updates Part 2
« Reply #148 on: March 30, 2020, 12:00:00 am »

I just did my own analysis of what could be in store based on figures coming in by county throughout the US.  Comparing percentage of deaths to cases, it varies significantly depending in which county.  Assuming it spreads through the US everywhere and 40,000,000 are infected, anywheres from 200,000 to one million will die.  Of course that's based on discovered cases. That's of course if this things continues spreading and there';s no antidote.  The saving grace is if it dies out soon on it's own.    My estimates would be a lot lower of the actual infected is much higher but just not realized by those doing the statistics.

Here the charts I used if you want to do your own analysis.
https://www.cnbc.com/2020/03/29/coronavirus-heres-a-map-of-rural-counties-in-us-most-affected-by-pandemic.html

These estimates are substantially higher than Slobodan's numbers.

LesPalenik

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3615
    • advantica blog
Re: Covid 19 Updates Part 2
« Reply #149 on: March 30, 2020, 12:00:54 am »

A good and concise (just over 2 minutes) interview with Bill Gates. He said that he expects the peak in USA by end of April, but it will take another month for the infections to come down to safe levels.
But it will require a nationwide lockdown, not just for certain states and counties. The current daily growth rate is 33%, meaning that if you have a certain county with just 100 cases, and if you don't do anything, it could quickly grow to 10,000.  And that's an optimistic assessment.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2020/03/27/bill-gates-coronavirus-town-hall-shutdown-april-peak-sot-vpx.cnn/video/playlists/stories-worth-watching/

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 8486
    • Flicker photos
Re: Covid 19 Updates Part 2
« Reply #150 on: March 30, 2020, 12:07:42 am »

These estimates are substantially higher than Slobodan's numbers.
I think the experts realize that the spread will not stop until everyone is infected.  It's like a walking dead movie.  I think Gov Cuomo knew and let it slip out last week when he said between 40-80% of the Americans will get it.  The whole lowering the curve is , I believe, an attempt to forestall more people getting it before the thing dies out on its own, they hope.  It's not so much there aren;lt enough hospital beds.  That's true.  But the main issue is to slow down the infection timetable until this thing dies out.  If it doesn't, it's going to be a disaster. 

What I don;t understand looking at the charts on my last post, is why this thing in America is spreading but not elsewhere.  I think it's BS that other countries have stopped it.  I just don't see how that could be.  Even if you grab the spreaders, there is always going to be one or two you missed and the spread will start again.  We'll know if this is true once we hear of cases again in South Korea and Taiwan.  I think they already have domestic cases in China but they're hiding them. 

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 8486
    • Flicker photos
Re: Covid 19 Updates Part 2
« Reply #151 on: March 30, 2020, 12:22:28 am »

A good and concise (just over 2 minutes) interview with Bill Gates. He said that he expects the peak in USA by end of April, but it will take another month for the infections to come down to safe levels.
But it will require a nationwide lockdown, not just for certain states and counties. The current daily growth rate is 33%, meaning that if you have a certain county with just 100 cases, and if you don't do anything, it could quickly grow to 10,000.  And that's an optimistic assessment.

https://www.cnn.com/videos/business/2020/03/27/bill-gates-coronavirus-town-hall-shutdown-april-peak-sot-vpx.cnn/video/playlists/stories-worth-watching/
I saw his video.  But I still don;t understand how you can stop the spread by flattening the curve if the disease does not stop soon on it's own.  Are we to stay hidden forever?  We have to come out at some time and that's when it will pickup again and continue.  Only unless it burns out on it's own like the seasonal flu.  What Gates is suggesting is a complete shutdown of the entire country.  Trump wanted to set up no travel out of NY, CT and NJ and was opposed.  He was trying to get a jump on what Gates is recommending but everyone was opposed to his plan.  Of course, when it does happen they will continue to blame Trump even though he is the one who wants to take stronger measures.  Our politics is really getting in the way of coherent strategies. 

What Gates did not say is what is a complete shutdown.  Does that mean nothing is going to happen? How are people going to eat and survive locked up in their homes.  Just what is he recommending?

What's going on in Canada, Les? Do you have charts like the one I posted by province and locality?

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 8486
    • Flicker photos
Re: Covid 19 Updates Part 2
« Reply #153 on: March 30, 2020, 12:34:09 am »

I just noticed that if you book a hotel with your flight, you get to fly free.  I wonder if they'd throw in a ventilator? 

Alan Klein

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 8486
    • Flicker photos
Re: Covid 19 Updates Part 2
« Reply #154 on: March 30, 2020, 12:58:04 am »

My New Jersey is second highest state in the country for cases although not the second for deaths.  I guess because we're right next to NYC and so many Jerseyites work in NYC. 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/ng-interactive/2020/mar/29/coronavirus-map-of-the-us-latest-cases-state-by-state

LesPalenik

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3615
    • advantica blog
Re: Covid 19 Updates Part 2
« Reply #155 on: March 30, 2020, 03:03:20 am »

What I don;t understand looking at the charts on my last post, is why this thing in America is spreading but not elsewhere.  I think it's BS that other countries have stopped it.  I just don't see how that could be.  Even if you grab the spreaders, there is always going to be one or two you missed and the spread will start again.  We'll know if this is true once we hear of cases again in South Korea and Taiwan.  I think they already have domestic cases in China but they're hiding them.

Very probable that China, Russia and Iran are hiding their C19 numbers. I don't think that's the case with South Korea, Singapore and Taiwan.

LesPalenik

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3615
    • advantica blog
Re: Covid 19 Updates Part 2
« Reply #156 on: March 30, 2020, 03:37:37 am »

I saw his video.  But I still don;t understand how you can stop the spread by flattening the curve if the disease does not stop soon on it's own.  Are we to stay hidden forever?  We have to come out at some time and that's when it will pickup again and continue.  Only unless it burns out on it's own like the seasonal flu.  What Gates is suggesting is a complete shutdown of the entire country.  Trump wanted to set up no travel out of NY, CT and NJ and was opposed.  He was trying to get a jump on what Gates is recommending but everyone was opposed to his plan.  Of course, when it does happen they will continue to blame Trump even though he is the one who wants to take stronger measures.  Our politics is really getting in the way of coherent strategies. 

What Gates did not say is what is a complete shutdown.  Does that mean nothing is going to happen? How are people going to eat and survive locked up in their homes.  Just what is he recommending?

What's going on in Canada, Les? Do you have charts like the one I posted by province and locality?

Gates knows much more than Trump about the pandemics, infection rates, and required medical equipment. He doesn't tweet as much as Trump, but he thinks pragmatically and logically. I'm sure that was not the last word we heard from him on this subject.

Yes, in Canada we have the Covid-19 numbers broken down by province. The latest infection count is 6,320, and the three most populous provinces (Ontario, Quebec, British Columbia) report about 2/3 of all Canadian infections.

Here is a detailed report as of last Saturday:
https://nationalpost.com/news/canada/a-provincial-breakdown-of-covid-19-in-canada-5576-cases-and-61-dead-as-of-saturday

Epidemiological summary of Covid-19 cases with several charts
https://www.canada.ca/en/public-health/services/diseases/2019-novel-coronavirus-infection/health-professionals/epidemiological-summary-covid-19-cases.html

William Walker

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 921
    • William Walker Landscapes
Re: Covid 19 Updates Part 2
« Reply #157 on: March 30, 2020, 03:42:42 am »

Instead of just showing a link with the implied message - "Trust me and read it", it would be a good practice to show always the three pieces of information Jeremy requested:

Poster's brief comment or position
Excerpt or summary of the quoted / external link
URL link(s)

Optionally, insertion of a suitable picture (typically from the quoted link) can be beneficial

If anyone had bothered to read my post properly, the first thing they would have noticed is that it was a response (including the quote) to a point Ray raised.... the link I posted was not isolated, it was, I felt (and still do), relevant.

On a side-note: it was amusing to see the "maverick", "americans don't like rules" brigade jumping on that massive "breach of the rules"!  ;D ;D ;D

As
Logged
"What can be asserted without evidence can also be dismissed without evidence." Christopher Hitchens

LesPalenik

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3615
    • advantica blog
Re: Covid 19 Updates Part 2
« Reply #158 on: March 30, 2020, 03:42:58 am »

I just noticed that if you book a hotel with your flight, you get to fly free.  I wonder if they'd throw in a ventilator?

yes, one ventilator per room (based on double occupancy)

LesPalenik

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Offline Offline
  • Posts: 3615
    • advantica blog
Re: Covid 19 Updates Part 2
« Reply #159 on: March 30, 2020, 03:53:23 am »

If anyone had bothered to read my post properly, the first thing they would have noticed is that it was a response (including the quote) to a point Ray raised.... the link I posted was not isolated, it was, I felt (and still do), relevant.

On a side-note: it was amusing to see the "maverick", "americans don't like rules" brigade jumping on that massive "breach of the rules"!  ;D ;D ;D

It was not an attack, merely a friendly suggestion how to entice the readers to click on the links in a particular post.
In the last month, we have seen so many links, that it would be very difficult and time consuming to open and read all of them. Any help to help the dummies will be helpful.
Pages: 1 ... 6 7 [8] 9 10 ... 60   Go Up