Bernard,
What do you think about Japan -- not the politics, but the numbers? Is it going to get bad? Is it already bad? I saw something that said a lot of Japanese wear masks in the Spring because of allergies, and that may have cut the spread of the virus. What do you think? Also, are you spending any time with a camera, documenting this? Empty train windows, that sort of thing? People here really don't believe this, but we're going to lose more Americans than we lost in all the wars we've fought after WWII, but nobody seems to be documenting it in a historical sense. It's all journalism, and the journalism isn't even very thoughtful and there's little attempt at objectivity by anyone
John,
I think that there are several things that can be said about Japan:
- considering that they have only tested so far people with pretty severe symptoms, the actual number of infected people is probably tens of times higher than reported
- but still, it seems true that they have faced extremely few numbers of severe cases, the hospitals are overall not more full than in normal years (as of today they have only 22 people suffering from severe symptoms in the whole of Japan)
- considering that they have never taken stringent measures nor closed flights from China, they should be facing a super high number of casualties if things were comparable to other countries, so there must be a difference. The high rate of mask usage has certainly contributed. Another interesting theory is that the BCG vaccine, in particular the type used in Japan (called Tokyo 172) may help reinforce the immunity system against lung disease and would therefore reduce a lot the severity of the symptoms when someone is infected. This theory is under under testing on a large scale in Holland and Australia at this time
- now they are starting to test more and they see more infected people, but still very few severe cases among Japanese natives
- no, I have been super busy with work and the schooling of my daughter, I have not had the opportunity to take pictures illustrating the situation, but the thing it that, since there is no confinement, Tokyo isn't empty at all. There are less people than usual, but it still feels rather busy. Totally different from what we see of European cities for example
On the political front, as I have written, I find their course of action extremely poor. I think they have been incredibly lucky so far.
Cheers,
Bernard