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Author Topic: Covid 19 Updates Part 2  (Read 30178 times)

LesPalenik

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Re: Covid 19 Updates Part 2
« Reply #40 on: March 28, 2020, 11:46:52 pm »

Yawn. Wake me up when it passes the usual 50-60K deaths from regular flu every year (in the States).

Be careful what you wish for.
Once USA gets to Italy's level of fatalities (1,000 deaths per day), it will take only two months for 50-60K deaths.
With an average of 350 deaths per day, it will take 5 months to get past 50K deaths.
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John Camp

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Re: Covid 19 Updates Part 2
« Reply #41 on: March 29, 2020, 01:57:49 am »

Yawn. Wake me up when it passes the usual 50-60K deaths from regular flu every year (in the States).

40-60,000 in the states isn't usual; it's unusual. The typical total is between 20,000 and 40,000, spread over eight months or a bit more. Even at the higher number, that's 5,000 deaths per month, or 100 deaths a month -- three or four a day -- in a state of average population and average infection rates. That's hardly noticeable when nearly 3 million people a year die in the US from all causes. What's frightening here, of course, is the trajectory of the current infection, and the death rate. We have two thousand dead now, I suspect in a week we'll have eight thousand dead, and by the middle of the month of April, perhaps fifty thousand dead, and it won't be slowing down. I really, really hope I don't have to wake you up, but be ready for it sometime in the middle of April.

Frankly, and I don't mean this to sound either demeaning or threatening, I really wouldn't want to be in your shoes or Alan's if we get three or four hundred thousand dead and people on this forum begin reprinting your comments for contemplation...you know, like, "Yawn. Wake me up..."
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texshooter

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Re: Covid 19 Updates Part 2
« Reply #42 on: March 29, 2020, 02:24:39 am »


How much would you be willing to pay to reduce your odds of dying from the coronavirus from 1.0% to 0.1%?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-should-the-government-spend-to-save-a-life/

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texshooter

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Re: Covid 19 Updates Part 2
« Reply #43 on: March 29, 2020, 04:50:33 am »

And

If the average age of Americans who die from coronavirus is 81 and the average age of Americans who die from other causes is 79,

Would that suggest those who die  from coronavirus were done for already? 

On average.

« Last Edit: March 29, 2020, 06:44:31 am by texshooter »
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Covid 19 Updates Part 2
« Reply #44 on: March 29, 2020, 05:03:41 am »

Lockdown, what lockdown? Sweden's unusual response to coronavirus https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-52076293

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While swathes of Europe's population endure lockdown conditions in the face of the coronavirus outbreak, one country stands almost alone in allowing life to go on much closer to normal.

KLaban

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Re: Covid 19 Updates Part 2
« Reply #45 on: March 29, 2020, 05:11:02 am »

Yawn. Wake me up when it passes the usual 50-60K deaths from regular flu every year (in the States).

Slobodan, apologies for disturbing your sleep, but I fear it wouldn't have been much of a lie-in.

Seriously, the compassion you display towards humanity never ceases to amaze.

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Covid 19 Updates Part 2
« Reply #46 on: March 29, 2020, 05:31:20 am »

Also Italy and Spain show very similar counts. Maybe because both nations have similar life styles in terms of socializing?
The most surprising thing is Switzerland on the top. One would think, that the Swiss are very law abiding and safety minded and that they practice the social distance recommendations. Why then such a high mortality?

Wintersports, Tourism?
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Covid 19 Updates Part 2
« Reply #47 on: March 29, 2020, 05:36:25 am »

Slobodan, apologies for disturbing your sleep, but I fear it wouldn't have been much of a lie-in.

Seriously, the compassion you display towards humanity never ceases to amaze.

It is called being realistic.

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Covid 19 Updates Part 2
« Reply #48 on: March 29, 2020, 05:39:14 am »

It is called being realistic.

... or uninformed.
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Covid 19 Updates Part 2
« Reply #49 on: March 29, 2020, 05:44:35 am »

Deathrates cannot yet be compared between countries.

Even in my country, currently people who have died from Covid-19 are not immediately tested for Covid-19. The available testcapacity is needed for prevention. Once people are dead it is not urgent to diagnose the cause other than respiratory failure. Statistics can be improved after the prevention of more caualies, when there is some time to spare.
« Last Edit: March 29, 2020, 05:49:37 am by Bart_van_der_Wolf »
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Ray

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Re: Covid 19 Updates Part 2
« Reply #50 on: March 29, 2020, 05:50:06 am »

I've come across  several articles which mention that 99% of those who die from Covid-19 have other serious medical conditions. This implies that the Covid-19 virus might be just 'the last straw that broke the camel's back', and that those who are healthy, with no medical conditions such as diabetes or high blood pressure, are safe, and will experience relatively mild symptoms if they are exposed to the virus.

However, such articles always seen to mention just Italy, which seems to imply that Italians, especially the elderly, are very unhealthy. I'm wondering if this is a general principle that applies in all countries, that is, if you are healthy without any medical conditions, whatever your age, you will have an extremely low risk of dying from Covid-19 infection.
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Rob C

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Re: Covid 19 Updates Part 2
« Reply #51 on: March 29, 2020, 06:26:34 am »

I've come across  several articles which mention that 99% of those who die from Covid-19 have other serious medical conditions. This implies that the Covid-19 virus might be just 'the last straw that broke the camel's back', and that those who are healthy, with no medical conditions such as diabetes or high blood pressure, are safe, and will experience relatively mild symptoms if they are exposed to the virus.

However, such articles always seen to mention just Italy, which seems to imply that Italians, especially the elderly, are very unhealthy. I'm wondering if this is a general principle that applies in all countries, that is, if you are healthy without any medical conditions, whatever your age, you will have an extremely low risk of dying from Covid-19 infection.

I think you'd be very, very lucky indeed to hit your late seventies without some form of permanent illness for which you have to take pills for the rest of your days just to survive. I don't believe that I know anyone of my age who doesn't have regular medical visits. In normal times, at least we can expect to have those visits granted. Not these days: I have been waiting for an appointment to have an ultrasound scan of my stomach for quite some weeks now; I have no idea if any are being done, and whether all resources are totally focussed and redeployed on Corona. If anything serious is found too late, you could say that I, too, died due to Coronavirus.

But it is far from being the case that only the old and decrepit are falling. Perhaps they are the majority for whom it proves fatal, but that doesn't imply the younger ones are not seriously affected and endangered.

;-)

Rob

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Covid 19 Updates Part 2
« Reply #52 on: March 29, 2020, 06:46:06 am »

I've come across  several articles which mention that 99% of those who die from Covid-19 have other serious medical conditions. This implies that the Covid-19 virus might be just 'the last straw that broke the camel's back', and that those who are healthy, with no medical conditions such as diabetes or high blood pressure, are safe, and will experience relatively mild symptoms if they are exposed to the virus.

However, such articles always seen to mention just Italy, which seems to imply that Italians, especially the elderly, are very unhealthy. I'm wondering if this is a general principle that applies in all countries, that is, if you are healthy without any medical conditions, whatever your age, you will have an extremely low risk of dying from Covid-19 infection.

The elderly are always at higher risk, due to lower resistance. Additional medical conditions stack the odds against them even more. But do not make the mistake to assume that young people do not die, they do. Just in lower numbers, but their death by suffocation is as horrible as with other casualties.
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Ray

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Re: Covid 19 Updates Part 2
« Reply #53 on: March 29, 2020, 07:51:56 am »

The elderly are always at higher risk, due to lower resistance. Additional medical conditions stack the odds against them even more. But do not make the mistake to assume that young people do not die, they do. Just in lower numbers, but their death by suffocation is as horrible as with other casualties.

I understand, but the point I'm trying to clarify is whether the elderly are at higher risk because most of them already have medical problems. Young people tend to have fewer medical problems, and therefore are at less risk of dying after they get infected. Do we have any statistical evidence of young people who are free of any other medical problems, dying of Covid-19?

For example, I'm 77 and therefore, presumably, at greater risk of dying if I were to become infected. However, I have no medical problems at all. I exercise regularly and eat a wholesome diet. I also fast for a few days now and again, to help my body fix any emerging problems and boost my immune system.

I suspect that Covid-19 might not be a serious threat to me. However, I'm aware that I could still pass on the virus to others, and therefore comply with the 'social distancing' rules.
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Slobodan Blagojevic

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Re: Covid 19 Updates Part 2
« Reply #54 on: March 29, 2020, 08:25:38 am »

... Do we have any statistical evidence of young people who are free of any other medical problems, dying of Covid-19?...

Not statistical, probably too early, but there are anecdotal evidence, as reported in the news.

On a personal note, two of my young (30s), healthy, no-prior condition friends ended up hospitalized with pneumonia and positive on Corona. We were, together with their parents, wifes, girlfriends, etc. at the same concert they performed at. I spent two weeks in bed with relatively mild symptoms (dry cough), one guy's parents too, the wife, kids, girlfriend, all had minor symptoms and quickly recovered. The two guys are still hospitalized. Go figure.

Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Covid 19 Updates Part 2
« Reply #55 on: March 29, 2020, 08:32:31 am »

I understand, but the point I'm trying to clarify is whether the elderly are at higher risk because most of them already have medical problems. Young people tend to have fewer medical problems, and therefore are at less risk of dying after they get infected. Do we have any statistical evidence of young people who are free of any other medical problems, dying of Covid-19?

It may be too early to tell. One thing that I'm told is that on average, each degree Celsius of Fever (say above 37C) raises the heart rate by 10 strokes a minute. That takes energy. When otherwise in good health, that energy may be available for a while (regardless of age), but not indefinitely. So it will drain energy that should be directed at other vital processes, like breathing and getting rid of fluid buildup in the lungs.

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For example, I'm 77 and therefore, presumably, at greater risk of dying if I were to become infected. However, I have no medical problems at all. I exercise regularly and eat a wholesome diet. I also fast for a few days now and again, to help my body fix any emerging problems and boost my immune system.

That's the best you can do as basic starting point to improve your chances, but it won't safeguard against getting infected. Vitamin C also doesn't.
It's about contact with the virus, that's all it takes.

So the best thing to do, until there is a vaccine, is to reduce the risk of getting infected. That not only involves you, but also those who come in contact.

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I suspect that Covid-19 might not be a serious threat to me. However, I'm aware that I could still pass on the virus to others, and therefore comply with the 'social distancing' rules.

Exactly, as should all who care about their fellow man, including healthcare workers who may need to save the lives of others.
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Ray

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Re: Covid 19 Updates Part 2
« Reply #56 on: March 29, 2020, 08:57:49 am »

Not statistical, probably too early, but there are anecdotal evidence, as reported in the news.

On a personal note, two of my young (30s), healthy, no-prior condition friends ended up hospitalized with pneumonia and positive on Corona. We were, together with their parents, wifes, girlfriends, etc. at the same concert they performed at. I spent two weeks in bed with relatively mild symptoms (dry cough), one guy's parents too, the wife, kids, girlfriend, all had minor symptoms and quickly recovered. The two guys are still hospitalized. Go figure.

One can't 'figure' without reliable information. Your young (30s), healthy, no-prior condition friends, might have had some other infection in addition to Covid-19. Personal medical details tend to be kept private.

What sparked this inquiry was seeing a number of reports that 99% of deaths in Italy from Covid-19 were related to existing medical conditions.

Best wishes for your friends.
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: Covid 19 Updates Part 2
« Reply #57 on: March 29, 2020, 09:10:15 am »

One can't 'figure' without reliable information. Your young (30s), healthy, no-prior condition friends, might have had some other infection in addition to Covid-19. Personal medical details tend to be kept private.

And even then, genetics may play a role. While I'm also curious, it's just too soon to tell.
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petermfiore

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Re: Covid 19 Updates Part 2
« Reply #58 on: March 29, 2020, 09:13:27 am »

... or uninformed.

Even well informed people will respond to dire circumstances in different ways. How else do we explain heroic actions in emergencies.  One needs to be aware of the safety of self and others...


« Last Edit: March 29, 2020, 09:41:45 am by petermfiore »
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Alan Klein

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Re: Covid 19 Updates Part 2
« Reply #59 on: March 29, 2020, 09:16:02 am »

And

If the average age of Americans who die from coronavirus is 81 and the average age of Americans who die from other causes is 79,

Would that suggest those who die  from coronavirus were done for already? 

On average.


John, I never said deaths weren't tragic.  What I said that if this thing turns out to be a lot less the common flu, we have to think in terms of those comparable numbers.  Are we over-reacting.  There are dangers to that as well as doing nothing.  Like most things, a middle path probably is the best approach.  God forbid the number goes up to the amount you've indicated. Of course, isolation and other measure we're taking are reducing the spread.  So it could be that the final number could have been a lot worse had we not taken those measures.  Certainly I believe the threat.  I see the numbers just like you. So I haven't been out of my house hardly.  I just got through wiping everything down again with Lysol.  I'm 75 and have medical issues that make me a bad candidate for catching this thing.

However, I always like looking at issues from both sides and be a devil's advocate for the less popular opinion (usually).  It's stimulating and keeps me on my toes.
It's easy to get into group think.  It's like preaching to the choir and everyone's patting everyone else on the back.  I try to avoid it. Otherwise you get stuck in one mode of thinking and might be making errors.  Plus looking at different sides brings out things people haven;t thought of that may provide solutions no one had previously thought of.  Anyway I like being a maverick.
« Last Edit: March 29, 2020, 09:44:09 am by Alan Klein »
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