Covid 19 Updates Part 2

[Alan Klein]

I've come across  several articles which mention that 99% of those who die from Covid-19 have other serious medical conditions. This implies that the Covid-19 virus might be just 'the last straw that broke the camel's back', and that those who are healthy, with no medical conditions such as diabetes or high blood pressure, are safe, and will experience relatively mild symptoms if they are exposed to the virus.

However, such articles always seen to mention just Italy, which seems to imply that Italians, especially the elderly, are very unhealthy. I'm wondering if this is a general principle that applies in all countries, that is, if you are healthy without any medical conditions, whatever your age, you will have an extremely low risk of dying from Covid-19 infection.

Unfortunately, I haven;t seen statistics that break these things out.  You'd think we'd be getting these numbers daily considering how much of the world has the same problem.  I guess doctors are too busy to do the tests or don;t have the equipment or test kits to do it.  As an old fart with medical issues, it certainly got me worried.

[Manoli]

What sparked this inquiry was seeing a number of reports that 99% of deaths in Italy from Covid-19 were related to existing medical conditions.

I don't believe that's accurate. I suspect it's ' 99% of deaths had pre-existing medical conditions ' which is entirely different from saying that it was related to an existing medical condition.

And I most definitely question the 99% number. Knowing your prediliction for accuracy, 'm guessing that that was figurative rather than literal.

[Alan Klein]

How much would you be willing to pay to reduce your odds of dying from the coronavirus from 1.0% to 0.1%?

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/what-should-the-government-spend-to-save-a-life/

People bet on their lives all the time against what things cost.  For example, do they buy a more expensive car with better safety features?  Or do they keep driving that old clunker? Do they spend extra money to sprinlerize their house that puts out fires? Or do they just settle on the less expensive and less safe  smoke detector method? Do you buy more expensive cameras with two memory card slots or one?  There's no end what you can spend on safety and backup..  Isn't that the salesman';s gimmick to get you to buy by questioning what kind of father or mother are you if you don't?  We always balance out costs against safety. 

It's just amazing that the Senate voted 96-0 without any debate on a spending package of $6 trillion dollars.  We're setting ourselves up to a situation that we're going to suffer for many years to come as inflation and a weak economy will plague us because of it.  We've gone overboard with that package and they're planning another one in a few months, especially because of the upcoming election.  I remember stagflation back in the 1970's and early 1980's.  $100 in 1970 was worth $45 in spending power on 1982.  Imagine an inflation rate that knocks 55% of the purchasing power of your money, that things go up that much?  With what the government spends and the Fed prints will make that period like a party. Now, I'm 75, so I've lived most of my life, (I hope God isn't listening).  But I feel bad for younger people, and I have a daughter as well, because they're going to face hard times after the virus is over because of our profligate ways.  So I ask God to be kind to us if we act with fear and greed in damaging ways. 

[Manoli]

However, such articles always seen to mention just Italy, which seems to imply that Italians, especially the elderly, are very unhealthy.

A quick check on Wolfram Alpha shows me that , in Italy v USA,  life expectancy is 82.4 v 80.1, and median age is 45.9 v 37.6 - both in favour of the Italians, which seems to dent the thrust of your argument. It's also noticeable that this differential has been steadingly increasing over the last 40 years (see graphic)

[degrub]

life expectancy, yes, the US has been declining for many years.
Italy has half of its population that is 8 years older than the US. That seems to be part of the increased mortality.

[PeterAit]

In these trying times, I am so glad we have a president who is devoting all his energy and intelligence to solving the problem.

[Slobodan Blagojevic]

Today's stats from Serbia, FWIW:

From top to bottom, left to right:

Total number, dead, recovered, active cases, tested. Serbia's population is about 7-8 million.

The second image is a makeshift hospital for milder cases in a fairground facility.

[Craig Lamson]

In these trying times, I am so glad we have a president who is devoting all his energy and intelligence to solving the problem.

You have a problem with someone using a sport to rest their mind and body in times of stress?

[Robert Roaldi]

What I said that if this thing turns out to be a lot less the common flu, we have to think in terms of those comparable numbers.

Do you believe that if there were still a chance that this wasn't much more serious than a regular flu that all the people in the world who know about these things would be reacting the way they are?

Why would they do that?

[Alan Klein]

In these trying times, I am so glad we have a president who is devoting all his energy and intelligence to solving the problem.

Trump has more energy and gets more done and works hardly than most presidents I've seen.  He doesn;t stop.  Are you kidding about the golf?  So he takes a break to relax.  Obama played golf all the time too.  That's just a cheap shot because you can't criticize how hard he's working on the Covid problem.  Frankly, Democrats would prefer he play more golf and stop appearing at his news conferences that shows him on top of his game for getting things done and for effective management.  Does anyone think that sleepy Joe could do it better?   

[Alan Klein]

Today's stats from Serbia, FWIW:

From top to bottom, left to right:

Total number, dead, recovered, active cases, tested. Serbia's population is about 7-8 million.

The second image is a makeshift hospital for milder cases in a fairground facility.

Does it matter there are no shields between the three beds in each room?   I suppose if all the patients have Covid, it doesn;t matter.  But I'm not an expert on it.  Can't pneumonia spread for example?

[Alan Klein]

Do you believe that if there were still a chance that this wasn't much more serious than a regular flu that all the people in the world who know about these things would be reacting the way they are?

Why would they do that?

Herd mentality?  We often do things because others are doing them. 

I'm not saying it's wrong.  We don't know enough about it.  But we may find out later that we overreacted.  That it would have burned out like the flu with no more deaths than the regular flu.  We don't shut down societies with the flu even though 500,000 people in the world died from it last year.    If Covid comes back regularly like the flu, are we going to shut down the world every year?  I don't have answer to these questions.  I just presenting the questions and the problems are actions create. 

[Alan Klein]

Herd mentality

[Bart_van_der_Wolf]

Herd mentality?  We often do things because others are doing them.

Utter nonsense.

[Ray]

I don't believe that's accurate. I suspect it's ' 99% of deaths had pre-existing medical conditions ' which is entirely different from saying that it was related to an existing medical condition.

And I most definitely question the 99% number. Knowing your prediliction for accuracy, 'm guessing that that was figurative rather than literal.

I'm not sure it is entirely different. My understanding is a pre-existing condition is a condition that began in the past but might continue into the present, although usually under some degree of control through medication. Such conditions could be 'High Blood Pressure', 'Diabetes', and 'Heart Disease'. There tends not to be a complete cure for such conditions. If a pre-existing condition were completely cured it would be called a pre-existed condition, wouldn't it?

From the following article:  https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

"Report from the Italian National Institute of Health: analysed 355 fatalities and found only three patients (0.8%)  had no prior medical conditions. See Table 1 in the paper; (99% who died had one pre-existing health condition):
49%  had three or  more health conditions,
26% had two other ‘pathologies’,
25% had one.

The most common problems in the 355 who died were: 76% high blood pressure; 36%  diabetes, and 33%  ischemic heart disease."

Of course, the problem here is that only 355 fatalities have been analysed.

[Alan Klein]

A good article on herd mentality and group consensus.
https://www.consulting.com/herd-mentality

[Martin Kristiansen]

Day three of our lockdown. I don’t know what to think actually. Is this corona virus a real thing at the level we are being told or not? I don’t know what to think. But two things are real and they will and are having real consequences that are not trivial.
1 the economic devastation
2 the panic.

Even without a virus that is enough to have to deal with.

[Alan Klein]

I'm not sure it is entirely different. My understanding is a pre-existing condition is a condition that began in the past but might continue into the present, although usually under some degree of control through medication. Such conditions could be 'High Blood Pressure', 'Diabetes', and 'Heart Disease'. There tends not to be a complete cure for such conditions. If a pre-existing condition were completely cured it would be called a pre-existed condition, wouldn't it?

From the following article:  https://www.cebm.net/covid-19/global-covid-19-case-fatality-rates/

"Report from the Italian National Institute of Health: analysed 355 fatalities and found only three patients (0.8%)  had no prior medical conditions. See Table 1 in the paper; (99% who died had one pre-existing health condition):
49%  had three or  more health conditions,
26% had two other ‘pathologies’,
25% had one.

The most common problems in the 355 who died were: 76% high blood pressure; 36%  diabetes, and 33%  ischemic heart disease."

Of course, the problem here is that only 355 fatalities have been analysed.

Ray, you're lucky you have no severe medical conditions at 77.  I'm 75 and have diabetes, high blood pressure, triple bypass, sleep apnea, slight emphysema and take pills for most of these things.   I live in a 55+ community and most of my friends are in their 70's and 80's. .  People die around here all the time under normal conditions.  I stopped reading the community news letter as I really don;t want to know - It's very depressing.  When the EMS emergency vehicles enter our community they shut off their sirens so not to scare everyone.  It's that frequent.  You see the vehicle going down the street and you wonder which of your friends bit the bullet.  In any case, my friends suffer from all kinds of stuff which is  preexisting but really existing conditions that they live with.  So we're all particularly at risk with this disease that could put us over the top and kill us. 

I don;t think anyone in my community died from this disease.  But i don;t know for sure because the person who handles the newsletter stopped emailing them.  I gotta check on how he's doing. 

[LesPalenik]

A good article on herd mentality and group consensus.
https://www.consulting.com/herd-mentality

other good examples - selling stocks at distressed prices, and buying toilet paper at raised prices

[Alan Klein]

other good examples - selling stocks at distressed prices, and buying toilet paper at raised prices

Buying stocks at inflated prices.    What a mess.  God's testing us.