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Author Topic: COVID-19 updates  (Read 83643 times)

Alan Goldhammer

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #660 on: March 20, 2020, 08:56:06 am »

What strikes me in Italy is the very high death rate. What is the cause of that?
Older population and high incidence of existing medical conditions including lung damage from years of smoking.  Death rate in men has been much higher in most all areas and there is reasonably good data regarding higher cigarette smoking among men as compared to women. 
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #661 on: March 20, 2020, 08:56:36 am »

Sensible people should be able to walk on uncrowded streets and walkways, empty beaches or forest trails.
However, having beach parties and barbeque picnics or dancing in a tight tango embrace with a stranger would be irresponsible and stupid.


How invasive policies become are time and place dependent. Italy and Spain have banned cycling, even solo rides. This seems questionable on the face of it until you factor in the paramedics and hospital staff required to treat cycling accidents. Normally there aren't THAT many of those, but when there is no margin for error, even one may be a lot. People the world over don't like to be told what to do (it's decidedly not just an American thing) even when it is for their own good. Imagine falling off your bike and breaking a collar bone and no one is available to come get you and no hospital can take you in anyway.
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Jim Pascoe

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #662 on: March 20, 2020, 08:57:22 am »

I'll explain it. When anything remotely threatening happens, people buy guns. We have a thing in the U.S., promoted widely by gun companies, gun magazines and gun nuts, called the SHTF situation (Shit Hits The Fan.) This is usually a situation where all power plants fail at the same time, and every single government drops out of sight, beautiful Fox News newsreaders are eaten, and black people, who are 12% of the population, and high on all manner of drugs, come boiling out of the ghettos armed with machetes and overwhelm the 88% of the rest of us, paying special attention to beautiful blond women, which requires us to have guns. This is especially true in states that have no black people, because, you know, black people are like that. Even though, when you go to a gun show, most of the people there are either (a) old or (b) fat, or more likely (c) both, on the magazines they are portrayed as being tall, big-shouldered, wearing yellow blade sunglasses and head-to-toe camo, and armed with a black rifle and a high capacity handgun with which they'll be shooting those rabbits (and any black people they find up in the mountains.) My point being, if you can't get a C-19 vaccine, buy a gun.

Thank you John - that does explain a lot......

Jim
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Dave (Isle of Skye)

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #663 on: March 20, 2020, 08:58:21 am »

Just been out to our local supermarket on Skye and pretty much everything is closed already and all the schools are going into lock down from today. Also hardly any traffic on the roads and zero tourists, but the supermarket shelves seemed pretty well stocked for the moment, except for the usually panic buy products such as bog rolls and pasta - why are people panicking about toilet rolls and pasta?. I went out yesterday with the camera for the last time probably and at least until I am told it is safe to do so once again, which is really annoying as the weather has finally turned and the mountains look beautiful and snow capped at the moment aaaaargh!. Because I thought as we are quite remote and fairly unpopulated at this time of year anyway and the few visitors that would normally come here at this time of year are now staying away, so I could still self isolate even when I was out and about, as there just isn't anyone here to isolate from at the moment, even at any of the well known scenic locations on Skye, which is a sort of weirdly amazing thing to see, with all this complete emptiness of people, yet it feels totally scary at the same time.

Stay well people, we can all get through this, we just need to hunker down until it passes, or someone comes up with a quick test to identify who's got it, or we find a cure.

Dave
« Last Edit: March 20, 2020, 09:01:40 am by Dave (Isle of Skye) »
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #664 on: March 20, 2020, 08:58:32 am »

I just wanted to inject something slightly off-topic. Imagine if part of all the intellectual energy put into tracking our buying and viewing habits online was instead re-directed at big medical data around the world to streamline epidemiology. I hope that I'm utterly ignorant about this and that it is actually already going on.
You can donate your own computer to the fight:  https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/software/folding-home-now-has-23-coronavirus-projects-donate-cpu-power/  this allows remote access to your CPU/GPU to help do massive computer research.  Lots of people participate in this.
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Robert Roaldi

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #665 on: March 20, 2020, 09:01:33 am »

You can donate your own computer to the fight:  https://www.bleepingcomputer.com/news/software/folding-home-now-has-23-coronavirus-projects-donate-cpu-power/  this allows remote access to your CPU/GPU to help do massive computer research.  Lots of people participate in this.

Thanks.
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Manoli

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #666 on: March 20, 2020, 09:02:34 am »

I will admit, the source I got this from was wrong, which is pretty reliable. 
In looking for an article to defend my position, I found this one from Forbes:


My apologies. 

Joe,
first paragraph, first sentence: " Speaking to the nation last night, U.S. President Donald Trump said .."
enough of a qualification that nothing should be taken at face value.

Nothing personal, Joe - let's bury a non-existant hatchet. 
It does behove us all to be responsible and realise the importance and extent of this health emergency. BTW, the foolhardy aren't limited to the USA. SKY News reporting that inspite of all precautions and advisories by UK gov, we stiil have idiots insisting on frequenting pubs (bars) etc etc. Schools are closed, country close to lockdown but lets keep boozing ...

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Alan Klein

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #667 on: March 20, 2020, 09:04:24 am »

And to answer Joe's request for an outlook on time, think in terms of Months of Social Distancing. Group immunity will only develop over months to a year, until there is a vaccine or 60-70 percent of the population has recovered from Covid-19. For that, also more clever ways of testing need to be developed, and increased testing capacity won't hurt.

As has been mentioned, group immunity is not the goal of social distancing, but avoiding an overloaded demand on ICU capacity is. China will see another outbreak as soon as their lockdown is lifted, unless they do it very very gradually.
I thought they're all going back to work and Apple stores are opening throughout China? So we chouls be seeing an outbreak now.  No?
I will admit, the source I got this from was wrong, which is pretty reliable. 

In looking for an article to defend my position, I found this one from Forbes:

Italy Banned Flights From China Before America - It Didn’t Work

My apologies. 
I read somewhere that the average age of those who died in Italy was 81 years.

JoeKitchen

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #668 on: March 20, 2020, 09:09:49 am »

Joe,
first paragraph, first sentence: " Speaking to the nation last night, U.S. President Donald Trump said .."
enough of a qualification that nothing should be taken at face value.

Nothing personal, Joe - let's bury a non-existant hatchet. 
It does behove us all to be responsible and realise the importance and extent of this health emergency. BTW, the foolhardy aren't limited to the USA. SKY News reporting that inspite of all precautions and advisories by UK gov, we stiil have idiots insisting on frequenting pubs (bars) etc etc. Schools are closed, country close to lockdown but lets keep boozing ...

Well my source was not Trump; I know better.  Buried it is. 

Yes, I cant believe people are frequenting bars right now, this week.  In two or three weeks though?  Just saying we need to start thinking ahead to how people will react. 

It just seems like we are ad hocking it right now. 
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LesPalenik

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #669 on: March 20, 2020, 09:09:59 am »

Are you referring to the Canadian government where you live?

Unfortunately, there are quite a few governments with that distinction, USA one of them.
OTOH, California governor Gavin Newsom moved very decisively by ordering all in California to stay at home and at the same time predicting 25 million infections. 25M is a huge number, hopefully it won't come to that.
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Manoli

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #670 on: March 20, 2020, 09:12:21 am »

UKGOV - just released, self explanatory :

During a response to a virus of this nature, it is imperative that the public is confident the government has based its decisions on a representative range of the most up-to-date science advice. In the case of COVID-19, the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) has been providing ministers and officials with free and frank advice throughout, based on external scientific evidence and a wide source of essential information.

Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE): Coronavirus (COVID-19) response
« Last Edit: March 20, 2020, 09:17:57 am by Manoli »
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Jim Pascoe

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #671 on: March 20, 2020, 09:20:49 am »

Well my source was not Trump; I know better.  Buried it is. 

Yes, I cant believe people are frequenting bars right now, this week.  In two or three weeks though?  Just saying we need to start thinking ahead to how people will react. 

It just seems like we are ad hocking it right now.

Joe - I think in a few weeks time you will not want to risk any sort of outing or injury.  Chances are that all the hospitals will be overflowing with very old people and there will be no available emergency care for any younger folk who need it.  So although direct deaths from Coronavirus will be mainly in the elderly, indirect deaths will affect all age groups.  Traffic accidents, heart attacks, seizures in children, maternity emergencies.  It is for their sake the population needs to heed the advice.  As intelligent, thinking people, let's do our best. 

Jim
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KLaban

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #672 on: March 20, 2020, 09:27:48 am »

Joe,
first paragraph, first sentence: " Speaking to the nation last night, U.S. President Donald Trump said .."
enough of a qualification that nothing should be taken at face value.

Nothing personal, Joe - let's bury a non-existant hatchet. 
It does behove us all to be responsible and realise the importance and extent of this health emergency. BTW, the foolhardy aren't limited to the USA. SKY News reporting that inspite of all precautions and advisories by UK gov, we stiil have idiots insisting on frequenting pubs (bars) etc etc. Schools are closed, country close to lockdown but lets keep boozing ...

Including our Prime Minister's father!

KLaban

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #673 on: March 20, 2020, 09:33:01 am »

Slobodan has gone very quiet. He and I might not agree on much but I hope all is well and that he is recovering from whatever bug he has.

I fear this is going to happen more and more, contributors going quiet and the not knowing...

Manoli

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #674 on: March 20, 2020, 09:42:42 am »

Including our Prime Minister's father!

I know , Keith. I thought I'd try and be diplomatic by not mentioning it directly. :)  It was, IMO, always Jo and Rachel Johnson who flew (and fly) the flag for that family.
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Alan Goldhammer

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #675 on: March 20, 2020, 09:45:32 am »

Here is what will probably be my only US political comment.  As elected US representatives have to disclose financial transactions, it turns out that Senator Richard Burr, chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee and possessor of a lot of knowledge about what was going on, sold $1.5M worth of stock in late February and then to compound things told as closed group of businessmen that COVID-19 was going to be worse than the 1918 flu.  Senator Kelly Loeffler of Georgia sold over $1.5M worth stock and bought a lot of CITRIX stock (online conference platform company).  Tucker Carlson of FOX News went after Senator Burr last night calling for his resignation and requesting prosecution for insider trading.  Here is one web link among many:  https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2020/03/20/coronavirus-tucker-carlson-burr/
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Manoli

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #676 on: March 20, 2020, 09:48:01 am »

Slobodan has gone very quiet.

Notwithstanding our differences, I wish him a full and speedy recovery.
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Bart_van_der_Wolf

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #677 on: March 20, 2020, 09:48:31 am »

I thought they're all going back to work and Apple stores are opening throughout China? So we should be seeing an outbreak now.  No?

I don't think so. It wouldn't be wise either. I expect a very gradual relaxing of the total lockdown. The moment things start flaring up, back to total lockdown.
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Craig Lamson

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #678 on: March 20, 2020, 09:49:44 am »

Slobodan has gone very quiet. He and I might not agree on much but I hope all is well and that he is recovering from whatever bug he has.

I fear this is going to happen more and more, contributors going quiet and the not knowing...

Regardless of our different points of view a forum like this becomes a community and a small lifeline to sanity in times like these.  The worldwide nature gives us a view of our surrounding world in a very personal way. Sadly many of us here are older and more at risk, so yes, seeing people not coment for lenghty timeframes is worrying.  If you pray ,lift up one for Slobodan and the world in general.
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KLaban

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Re: COVID-19 updates
« Reply #679 on: March 20, 2020, 09:58:23 am »

Lessons from the lockdown

The northern Italian town of Codogno.
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